New National Poll Shows Narrow Gap Between Biden, Trump

By Jason Hall

March 18, 2024

Photo: Getty Images

President Joe Biden is currently holding a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump in a new national survey released by the Democratic super PAC Progress Action Fund, which was first shared with the Hill on Monday (March 18).

Biden reportedly holds a 46% to 45% edge over Trump in the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling's poll, though the two candidates are statistically tied as the polling falls within the survey's margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, according to the Hill. A separate 9% of respondents said they weren't sure who they'd support in the upcoming 2024 presidential election, a rematch of the 2020 election in which Biden defeated Trump.

Half of the respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Trump while 43% viewed him as favorable and 7% said they were unsure. Additionally, 55% of respondents said they disapproved of Biden's job performance as president while 39% approved and 6% said they were unsure.

Several previous polls have shown the the former president leading the current president, though Progress Action Fund founder Joe Jacobson claims Biden has recently gained momentum.

“President Biden is on the rise because he is going on offense and contrasting his accomplishments with Donald Trump’s extreme agenda,” Jacobson said in a statement. “Voters are persuaded when Democrats set the narrative and aren’t afraid to hold MAGA Republicans accountable for their horrific policies.”

Last week, Trump was reported to have held a slight edge over Biden the first USA TODAY poll released after both officially secured their respective parties' nominations. Trump reportedly held a 40% to 38% advantage among respondents who were asked whom they would vote for if the presidential election were held today.

Additionally, one in four respondents said they could possibly change their minds about their current choice once the election takes place in November, which includes 14% of current Biden voters and 15% of current Trump voters. The poll included 1,000 registered voters and was conducted by landline and/or cell phone between March 8-11.

Biden did, however, see an increase in Americans reporting green shoots in the economy, which was the most positive assessment since the beginning of his presidency. Last month, an NBC News poll showed Trump had a significant advantage over Biden in terms of which candidate would better handle the economy and immigration.

Trump reportedly has a lead greater than 20 points in relation to handling the economy and a more than 30-point advantage on handling immigration. The former president also has a 16-point lead over Biden in relation to being competent and effective, a change from the 2020 election when Biden had a 9-point edge in a poll conducted prior to winning the election.

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