New Poll Shows How Trump Fares Against Several Possible Democrat Candidates

By Jason Hall

July 9, 2024

First Presidential Debate; Biden vs Trump
Photo: Getty Images

A new Emerson College poll shows former President Donald Trump leading President Joe Biden and several possible Democrat replacements.

Trump currently has a 46% to 43% advantage over Biden with 11% claiming to be undecided. The former president also has an edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, former Democrat presidential candidates Bernie Sanders, Al Gore, Hillary Clinton, Pete Buttigeg and Elizabeth Warren, as well as Govs. Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.

The full list of hypothetical general election matchups is listed below:

  • Trump vs. Biden: 46% to 43% (11% undecided)
  • Trump vs. Harris: 49% to 43% (8%)
  • Trump vs. Sanders: 48% to 42% (10%)
  • Trump vs. Gore: 47% to 42% (11%)
  • Trump vs. Clinton: 48% to 41% (11%)
  • Trump vs. Newsom: 48% to 40% (12%)
  • Trump vs. Buttigieg: 49% to 39% (12%)
  • Trump vs. Warren: 49% to 39% (13%)
  • Trump vs. Whitmer: 48% to 38% (15%)
  • Trump vs. Shapiro: 46% to 38% (16%)

The poll was shared amid reports of uncertainty regarding Biden's re-election campaign as a top campaign official reportedly told at least one megadonor that the president's withdrawal from the 2024 election is "only a matter of time" privately according to TMZ, as well as multiple Democratic officials publicly calling for him to drop out. The official reportedly said that focus had shifted from singular support of the president's re-election to "Democrats have to retain The White House" following Biden's disastrous performance in the first presidential debate against former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, last month.

Biden, 81, the oldest president in history, appeared opposite Trump, on the debate stage for the first time since the 2020 election and did little to quell concerns about his vigor and energy. The president appeared to struggle with his voice, clearing his throat and coughing multiple times, and was often seen open-mouthed and staring when Trump spoke, occasionally struggling to finish sentences.

Biden's performance reportedly led to "panic" among Democrats, according to longtime Democratic operative and CNN senior political commentator David Axelrod.

“He seemed a little disoriented. He did get stronger as the debate went on. But by that time, I think the panic had set in,” Axelrod said, adding that "there are going to be discussions about whether he should continue.”

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