Famed Polling Expert Finds Momentum Shift Between Trump, Harris

By Jason Hall

September 5, 2024

Photo: Getty Images

Former President Donald Trump is reportedly gaining momentum on Vice President Kamala Harris, according to famed polling expert Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.

Silver's data model showed that Trump is now reported to have a 58.2% at winning the Electoral College in November compared to Harris' 41.6% chance, the pollster revealed in his latest election forecast bulletin on Substack.

“Trump’s chances of winning are his highest since July 30,” Silver wrote. “And the chance of an Electoral College-popular vote split working against Harris has risen to almost 18 percent.”

Silver's model predicts Harris has a 58.9% chance at winning the national popular vote, however, would only have 263 Electoral College votes, while Trump would surpass the threshold needed at 274. The pollster acknowledged that Harris saw a strong spike in support after President Joe Biden ended his campaign, but hasn't found "a 2nd gear."

“There was a surge of enthusiasm for Harris post-Biden dropout, but that might have happened no matter what,” Silver wrote on his X account Wednesday (September 4).

Silver also acknowledged that choosing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over crucial swing state Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, as well as retaining a strong percentage of Biden's staff, were potential missteps.

“Thought convention speech was good, but bypassing Shapiro beginning to look bad and they haven’t really found a 2nd gear after Hot Brat Summer,” Silver wrote on X.

“I think I’d buy the bull case for Harris a bit more if she hadn’t rehired so many of the Biden people," Silver added in a separate post.

Silver acknowledged that his model is still showing a "toss-up" between the two candidates and hasn't made his official prediction.

Silver gained notoriety for successfully predicting 49 of 50 states in the 2008 presidential election, as well as former President Barack Obama's re-election win in 2012 and Biden's win in the 2020 election.

The pollster was, however, criticized for giving Hillary Clinton a 71.4% chance of winning over Trump after the former president 304 electoral college votes to win the election.

"I think people shouldn’t have been so surprised," Silver told the Harvard Gazette in 2017. "Clinton was the favorite, but the polls showed, in our view, particularly at the end, a highly competitive race in the Electoral College. We had him with a 30 percent chance, and that’s a pretty likely occurrence. Why did people think it was much less than that? I think there are a few things."

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