New Poll Shows Close Race Between Harris, Trump Nationally

By Jason Hall

September 5, 2024

Photo: Getty Images

A new national poll shows a close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Harris is currently leading Trump by a 49% to 47% margin, with 3% undecided and 1% planning to vote for a third-party candidate, according to the September Emerson College Polling national survey released on Thursday (September 5).

“The 2024 presidential race currently mirrors 2020, with the Democratic lead narrowing from four points to two in national polls,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “In 2020, Biden re-established his four-point lead in late September ahead of the first debate; now, we’ll see what impact the debate has on the trajectory of this race.” 

Harris is reported to be ahead of Trump by a 47.0% to 44% margin, according to polling averages conducted by FiveThirtyEight.com, however, Trump is currently projected to surpass the 270 electoral vote threshold to be elected based on state polling, leading in several battleground states, according to RealClearPolling.com. Last month, a CBS News/YouGov poll projected that Harris and Trump were both reported to be at 50% among likely voters in battleground states, while Harris has a 51% to 48% edge nationally.

Harris also has a 56% advantage in support from women while Trump has a 54% edge among men. Trump famously defeated former First Lady and Senator Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election despite trailing by 6.5 points in polls.

Clinton won the popular vote, but lost the Electoral College by a 304 to 227 margin. Trump also trailed President Joe Biden by nine points in polls leading up to the 2020 presidential election, however, lost by just 4.4 percentage points.

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