Vatican’s Big Bet: Who’ll Wear the Papal Crown After Francis?

The Vatican’s a hotbed of intrigue as cardinals converge in Rome to crown the successor of Pope Francis, with the conclave firing up Wednesday, according to the New York Times. Francis, tapped to lead the church in 2013, packed the College of Cardinals with global picks, turning this papal race into a wild, unpredictable, international ride. From Congo to Myanmar, here’s the rundown on the 18 cardinals in the prime papal position to lead 1.4 billion Catholics worldwide.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin

At 70, Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin is a steady hand, guiding Francis’ vision for around a decade. A compromise pick to preside over the conclave, he’s got the Vatican’s gears humming but some feel he lacks Francis’ spark. Liberals wince at his 2015 jab calling same-sex marriage a “defeat for humanity,” per the Los Angeles Times, while conservatives bristle at his cozying up to China’s Communist leaders. His diplomatic chops, shown in immigration talks with Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, make him a heavyweight.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle

Luis Antonio “Chito” Tagle, 67, from the Philippines, is a charismatic liberal who could be Southeast Asia’s first pope. His focus on the poor mirrors Francis, and he’s pushed for a less Eurocentric church. Tagle’s called out harsh treatment of gay and divorced Catholics, but critics in the Philippines slam him for sidestepping clerical abuse and former President Rodrigo Duterte’s bloody drug war. His Vatican role in missionary work keeps him in the spotlight.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo

Archbishop of Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Fridolin Ambongo, 65, is Africa’s rising star, repping a continent where 18% of people are Catholic. Named a cardinal in 2019, he was said to be close to Francis, serving on his Council of Cardinals. Yet, he led the pushback against Francis’ 2023 same-sex couple blessings, showing his conservative streak. With Africa churning out seminarians, Ambongo’s a bold pick for a truly global papacy.

Cardinal Anders Arborelius

Sweden’s first cardinal, Anders Arborelius, 75, converted to Catholicism at 20. Leading a growing Catholic minority in secular Sweden, he’s a migrant advocate like Francis, fretting over anti-immigrant vibes. On same-sex blessings, he urges love but stops short of endorsing marriage, saying, “We cannot recognize gay marriage.” His Carmelite roots add a spiritual edge, but his advancing age may dim his chances.

Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline

France’s Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, blends Francis’ down-to-earth vibe (apparently preferring to do his own laundry) with deep theology. The Marseille archbishop’s quiet on hot-button issues like gay blessings, dodging controversy. His ties to Francis were strong, but French popes haven’t won since the 1300s, when one moved the papacy to Avignon. Aveline’s low-key style could appeal to cardinals seeking stability.

Cardinal Charles Maung Bo

Myanmar’s Charles Maung Bo, 76, leads a Catholic minority in a Buddhist land. Made cardinal in 2015, he’s called out the persecution of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar and Uyghurs in China, ruffling feathers. Post-2021 miliary coup in the Southeast Asian nation, he’s pushed for peace talks. His global human rights stance makes him a long shot with a loud voice for the marginalized.

Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David

The Philippines’ Pablo Virgilio Siongco David, 66, tackled former President Duterte’s drug war head-on, listing victims killed in his diocese and aiding locals in Manila. Elevated to cardinal in December 2024, he runs a YouTube show to reach laypeople. His courage in a violent climate makes him a solid contender for pope.

Cardinal Peter Erdo

Hungary’s Peter Erdo, 72, a canon law expert, represents the conservative days of popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI. He’s against communion for divorced Catholics and faltered defending Francis against Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during the migration crisis. His diplomatic skills and ties to Africa and Latin America keep him in play, but his academic focus lacks pastoral pluck.

Cardinal Fernando Filoni

Italy’s Fernando Filoni, 79, stayed in Iraq during the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, shielding Christians amid the chaos. His diplomatic posts spanned Sri Lanka, Iran, Brazil, Jordan and Hong Kong, but he’s never run a parish, which is not necessarily a papal disqualifier.

Cardinal Mario Grech

Malta’s Mario Grech, 68, evolved from opposing divorce to embracing Francis’ progressive push. As secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, he’s called for open doors to migrants coming to Europe. Once conservative on gay issues, he now aligns with Francis’ outreach, making him a continuity candidate from a tiny Mediterranean nation.

Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti

Italy’s Claudio Gugerotti, 69, speaks six languages and led Vatican ties with Eastern Catholic Churches. His envoy roles in Ukraine and Belarus show diplomatic finesse, but he’s never been a bishop, a gap for a papacy centered on pastoral care. His global experience keeps him on the radar, though he may be considered a dark horse in the race.

Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça

Portugal’s José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, is a poet and scholar whose verses won literary prizes. Named Vatican culture chief in 2022, he warned of AI’s “shadow of evil.” Francis called him “the poetry,” and his LGBTQ outreach aligns with progressive hopes. His relative youth and artsy vibe make him a wildcard.

Cardinal Seán P. O’Malley

Boston’s Seán P. O’Malley, 80, is too old to vote but led the Vatican’s sexual abuse response. A Capuchin friar fluent in a reported eight languages, he took over post-abuse scandal in 2003. His calls for gun bans and humility resonate, but his age and non-voting status likely rule him out.

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa

Italy’s Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, offered himself as a hostage in exchange for the kidnapped children during the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel. As Jerusalem’s Latin patriarch, he’s revered for tradition, appealing to conservatives. His Middle East focus over Vatican alliances could hinder him, but an Italian pope after 50 years would be historic.

Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost

Chicago-born Robert Francis Prevost, 69, served 20 years in Peru, becoming a citizen. Running the Vatican’s bishop-selection office, he’s Francis-like in aiding the poor but vague on LGBTQ issues. His 2012 critique of “homosexual lifestyles” may alienate progressives, and no U.S. pope has ever been chosen.

Cardinal Joseph W. Tobin

Newark, New Jersey’s Joseph W. Tobin, 73, backs women, gay Catholics and immigrants. Named cardinal in 2016, he floated the idea of women as deacons or cardinals. Sent to Indianapolis after defending nuns under Benedict, his global Redemptorist leadership makes him a liberal contender, though U.S. popes are rare.

Cardinal Peter Turkson

Ghana’s Peter Turkson, 76, was a 2013 favorite and led Francis’ social justice office until a 2021 resignation amid a probe. His interfaith roots and appearances at the United Nations shine, but the resignation clouds his chances. His focus on equality and environment could carry Francis’ torch.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi

Italy’s Matteo Zuppi, 69, tied to the pro-poor Sant’Egidio community, is Bologna’s archbishop. He’s welcomed LGBTQ Catholics and served as Francis’ Ukraine envoy. His migrant advocacy — “Christ invites us to not turn away” — makes him a progressive pick with Italian roots.