Thurs Blogcast: A new AMERICAN pope; Trade deal?; Real ID; Not that K-car!

Update: A new AMERICAN pope

Robert Francis Prevost of Chicago was elected as the first-ever American pope. He selected Pope Leo XIV as his papal name

Start your day with both a smile and (happy) tears

Thanks to listener Andy for sending this

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Just One Thing: A "big" trade deal

By the time the show starts on Thursday there will likely already have been a White House press conference announcing a major trade deal between the US and the UK. I'll be interesting in several things: What tariffs (or non-tariff barriers) against American products will the UK lower or remove? What will Trump do in return? (For example, will he eliminate all of the "reciprocal tariff" and keep all of the 10% baseline tariff? I suspect that's the best case but wouldn't be surprised if some reciprocal tariff remains. Any free trade deal between the countries is a big deal for the UK, much bigger than it is for us, because the UK had hoped and expected to execute a trade deal with the US shortly after Brexit, but it didn't happen. I'll take any deals at this point, even if suboptimal. I continue to believe that nothing short of a Supreme Court ruling that Trump does not have the authority to impose these tariffs (and maybe not even that) will cause Trump to remove the 10%-on-everything tariff. That said, I do believe that at that level the foreign manufacturer will reduce their margins and perhaps so will the American retailer so that the price to the end customer will be little changed. Above 10%, roughly, and that's complete speculation on my part and very industry-dependent, I'd expect almost all of the rest of a tariff to be passed along to the customers. This poses a quandary for Trump because if customers are shielded from the effect of the tariffs, the government will collect a lot of revenue (paid for by Americans, but basically they're paying a tax instead of a company's profit margin) but it would NOT significantly incentivize more American manufacturing which seems to be Trump's bigger goal.

Trump will announce a ‘major trade deal’ with the UK Thursday | CNN Business

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Today's Guest

THIS GUEST WILL BE RESCHEDULED TO COVER THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF THE NEW POPE

Parker Sheppard is a Research Fellow for The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Data Analysis. We'll discuss some research that leads him to conclude that a significant number of Americans really would be happy to get work in a factory. This is a challenge to a recent Twitter/X thread from Frank Luntz that suggested the opposite.

Parker Sheppard | The Heritage Foundation

Actually, A Lot of People Do Want to Work in Factories | Commonplace

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Dr Matthew Wielicki (PhD in earth science) is the proprietor of the Irrational Fear Substack. We'll discuss the mythology surrounding sea level rise and "climate science's biggest lie"

Irrational Fear | Dr. Matthew Wielicki | Substack

The Sea-Level Lie: Exposed - by Dr. Matthew Wielicki

Exposing Climate Science's Biggest Lie

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Other Stuff

The details of this terrible story do not suggest, at least so far, that this was anything other than a tragic accident. By which I mean, no evidence so far of John Elway driving recklessly or under the influence, etc. Details revealed of fatal golf cart accident involving John Elway | Broncos | gazette.com

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Trump's policies have obviously increased economic risks but volatility in the market shows there remains massive uncertainty about how it will all play out. As of Thursday morning, there's a fairly strong rally in stock index futures based on an announcement coming later this morning about a free trade deal with the UK. The deal itself is much more important for the UK than for the US (because the UK has been trying to get a deal since Brexit) and probably an easier deal to get done (for the same reason...they've been working on it for years). The market seems to be taking it as a hopeful sign of more deals fairly soon. I'm not confident of a lot of fast deals, at least not fast, good, important deals. And then the big economic question will be "what will America's remaining tariff policy be?"

Fed rate decision May 2025: Fed holds rates steady

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No new pope after the first three rounds of voting: Black Smoke: No election after morning of first full day of conclave - Vatican News

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Wait, how many people over the age of 62 still have student loans? How soon defaulted student loan borrowers may face collections

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As of Thursday morning, there have been three round of voting by cardinals in the Vatican for a new pope but we've only gotten the black smoke signifying that no choice received the necessary 2/3 of the vote to be elected. The process of the election is rather interesting: Conclave: A visual guide to the secretive process of choosing a new pope | CNN

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Netflix news: Netflix Overhauls Its Home Screen for the First Time in 12 Years – DNyuz

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Colorado's legislative session ended yesterday and people who enjoy freedom and not losing money to politicians and bureaucrats can breathe a small sign of relief. I dread the session because I'm not joking when I say that my question during these brutal months is not "what are they doing for us?" but rather "what are they doing to us?" Our state legislature must be one of the worst in the nation now.

On these issues (and others, really) better a weakened version than the original version, but no bill would have been better still: Colorado lawmakers race to pass key bills - Axios Denver

This wacky "Rube Goldberg" insurance idea failed in the state legislature: Increase Access Homeowner's Insurance Enterprises | Colorado General Assembly

Here's one positive but it will hardly affect anybody: Title Register & Drive Kei Vehicles | Colorado General Assembly

Colorado May Become The First State In Years To Pass A Law Winning The Battle Against Imported Car Bans - The Autopian

This is a good bipartisan change to how legislative vacancies are filled, with the goal of not permitting an unelected person to stay in elected office for too long: Vacancies in the General Assembly | Colorado General Assembly

The legislature failed to pass a resolution that would have ordered the legislature's attorneys to sue the government to overturn TABOR.

They also failed to pass modifications to last year's AI regulation bill that many people believe will do great harm in Colorado. It's unclear whether the governor will be willing to call a special session just for this.

Over coming days we'll have guests on the show to do a bigger recap of the session.

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Offered without comment: The Gaza Famine Myth - by Michael Ames - The Free Press (not sure if it requires a subscription)

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Some stuff I didn't get to yesterday:

What happens when you don't take care of a brand: Skype, RIP - FEE

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You're probably fine:

Real ID deadline is Wednesday, May 7 but you can show TSA a passport

Real ID deadline is here but travelers can still fly without one, Noem says

Is Your Colorado ID or Driver's License "Real ID" Compliant? | Westword

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Remember when we were told to have margarine instead of butter, "sweetener" instead of sugar?

Everything old is new again: Lactose-free milk is more popular than almond and oat milk

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I like this question and answer: Why don’t Colorado cities plant more fruit trees so urbanites can enjoy free, fresh fruit? 

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Probably people will freak out at the "weird" colors at first but then get used to it and in some years nobody will even remember the old brighter happier colors that made life worth living: PepsiCo to remove artificial ingredients from popular food items by end of 2025

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Today's Videos

A listener sent this and it makes me quite queasy. Rather watch a tumor biopsy. Well, I guess they're really not that different.

Not a bad "baby gender reveal" method