TGIF Blogcast: Israel Strikes Iran; The nature of bureaucracy
June 13, 2025
Israel's enemy is our enemy
Before getting into the nuts and bolts of the Israeli strikes on Iran, I want to set the context so that Americans really understand who the Iranian leadership is and what they believe:
Still think the Iranian Regime will stop at Israel? Let them prove you wrong: pic.twitter.com/96c7oROorf
— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) June 13, 2025
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Just One Thing: Israel Strikes Iran
I will have a lot of smaller details below. Less analysis than usual in the blog because I need to spend more time thinking than writing.
Israel carries out preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, without U.S. involvement
Here is the statement by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announcing the strikes:
UPDATE: Pres Trump posted this on Friday morning:
I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, in the strongest of words, to "just do it," but no matter how hard they tried, no matter how close they got, they just couldn't get it done. I told them it would be much worse than anything they know, anticipated, or…
— Trump Posts on 𝕏 (@trump_repost) June 13, 2025
Israelis need to be ready for potential Iranian retaliation, though that has been surprisingly weak so far
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These are headlines I shared on yesterday's show, arguing that the presaged a likely attack against Iran and further that Iran's stating that they would be increasing uranium enrichment and would attack US facilities if the US was involved in attack on Iran was a massive mistake. You can't threaten Trump and also demonstrate that you've been lying the whole time when pretending to engage in negotiations over the nuclear program and expect that there will be no consequence, even if the consequence was "just" telling Israel that they can do whatever they think they need to do.
U.S. evacuating personnel from Middle East amid Iran tensions
State Department orders departure of nonessential staff from Baghdad embassy - ABC News
UN atomic board censures Iran and Tehran says it will establish a new nuclear site | AP News
Iran threatens to strike US bases in region if military conflict arises | Reuters
One of our achievements is establishing a third enrichment center in a secure location. Iran's enrichment industry cannot be destroyed. In response to their illegal, ultra-political move, we are launching our third enrichment site.
— Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran (@Iran_GOV) June 13, 2025
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Today's Guests
Ruthie Blum is an award-winning columnist and senior contributing editor for JNS. She lives in Israel but joins us today from New York.
Ruthie Blum | Co-host of Israel Undiplomatic
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Mike Munger, the Knower of Important Things, is a professor of political science at Duke University. Much of his teaching and his great podcast, The Answer is Transaction Costs, involves political economy (the intersection of politics and economics) rather than just politics. We'll discuss the nature of bureaucracy.
Michael C. Munger | Scholars@Duke profile
Barking Cats: On the "Nature" … - The Answer Is Transaction Costs - Apple Podcasts
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Other Stuff
UPDATE: Appeals court temporarily blocks judge's ruling to return control of National Guard to California | AP News (Given my initial comment just below, this doesn't surprise me.)
While I think that Trump's deployment of the Marines to Los Angeles is likely illegal, I think the judge has overreached here and will be overturned. That's not to say this is a slam-dunk for either side and it would be foolish to offer high confidence in a prediction: Judge says Trump illegally deployed National Guard to help with LA protests, must return control | AP News
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Safeway workers could strike this weekend: Safeway, Albertsons workers prepare to strike after rejecting offer
Another annoying thing this weekend: "No Kings" protest tests Denver's new police response - Axios Denver
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Trump's not wrong, but why stop with agriculture and hotels? What about construction, for example? Trump says too many migrant farmers, hotel workers are being deported
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Great news...we covered this somewhat on yesterday's show as the signing was happening:
Unsurprising reaction: Colorado sues to preserve EV mandates after Trump cancels them - The Colorado Sun
(It's not impossible that CA and CO win the lawsuit against the Trump administration and the Senate, but I think the action is more likely than not to be upheld eventually.)
Trump signs repeal of California rules that would ban gas cars
More info on just what he signed: Senate votes to undo California plan to ban gas cars
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A lot of Trump haters are very angry, and plenty of other folks are at least uncomfortable, about a parade celebrating the 250th birthday of the US Army because it's also on Trump's birthday and they see it as a parade honoring, and ordered by, Trump.
As of this writing, there's a significant chance that the parade gets rained out.
Army Birthday Media Resources | Article | The United States Army
Trump's military parade: What to know about the Army anniversary event - ABC News
What will (or would) be in the parade: equipment-at-army-festival-parade.pdf
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I'm glad she's doing better but will voters really believe she's better enough to be re-elected? Yadira Caraveo “hit a wall” during reelection campaign last year
And, by the way, if you were in her position and knew what the getting the job the first time had done to yourself, would you really seek it again at the risk, potentially, of your life?
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Just another challenge posed by AI:
Senators Demand Meta Answer For AI Chatbots Posing as Licensed Therapists
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We might not like the outcome, but the ruling seems correct: Judge bars evidence from pat-down in firearms case | Courts | coloradopolitics.com
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Sanity is breaking out (a little) regarding energy and climate (which are really the same issue)
Companies Quietly Water Down Climate Claims in Latest Investor Reports - WSJ
World Bank lifts ban on nuclear funding ban in developing countries
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Israel strikes Iran
Other headlines about the Israeli attack on Iran:
Israel clearly had remarkably precise intelligence, resulting in this: Iran's Revolutionary Guard commander Hossein Salami killed in Israeli strike, says Iranian state media | The Times of Israel
And this: Report: Iran's military chief Bagheri killed in Israeli strike | The Times of Israel
And this: Iran state media names two nuclear scientists killed in Israeli strike | The Times of Israel
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Iran remains defiant. The question is whether they have any significant capabilities remaining. They probably do have some. Iran's Khamenei: Israel will face a 'bitter and painful fate' for strikes | The Times of Israel
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A somewhat surprisingly isolationist statement from Rubio, a bit different in tone from what Trump said this morning. (I like Trump's statement better.)
Statement from Secretary of State Marco Rubio – The White House
Tonight, Israel took unilateral action against Iran. We are not involved in strikes against Iran and our top priority is protecting American forces in the region. Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defense. President Trump and the Administration have taken all necessary steps to protect our forces and remain in close contact with our regional partners. Let me be clear: Iran should not target U.S. interests or personnel.
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61 days ago, Trump gave Iran 60 days to make a deal: Trump tells Iran ‘make a deal or it’s war’
Just a few hours prior, when President Trump was asked about the possibility of an imminent Israeli attack, he said it wasn't imminent. I'm guessing he knew it was. Not sure we'll ever know.
Donald Trump: Israeli strike on Iran not imminent, but could happen | The Jerusalem Post
I suspect this analysis is wrong: It's clear the US isn't happy about this
By which I mean: I think it's unlikely that Israel didn't have American permission. Not impossible but unlikely.
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Today's Video
Given the seriousness of the day, I was inclined not to put any video but then I thought of this.
I don't want to imply in any way that I oppose Israel's strike on Iran. I've supported this action for a long time and it has long seemed inevitable.
But that doesn't mean anyone should think positively of war. It can serve a purpose but the price can be extraordinarily high, even for the "winner".