TGIF Blogcast: ADM Stavridis; DougCo Home Rule; Author/CIA guy Barry Eisler

Start your Friday with a chuckle

This is a spectacular and rare nature photo from deep within the (urban) jungle

CHANGE YOUR PASSWORDS

Seriously, don't wait

16 Billion Apple, Facebook, Google And Other Passwords Leaked — Act Now

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Just One Thing: Econ nerdiness

A moderately long note by me responding to a friend who thinks tariffs can't be inflationary.

Please read and subscribe to my Substack (it's free!)

How can tariffs be inflationary? - by Ross Kaminsky

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One More Thing: Two weeks

President Trump, though his press secretary, said yesterday that he'd decide within two weeks whether the US will join Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear sites. This is at least one week too long.

Here's what Karoline Leavitt said: "I have a message directly from the president: 'Based on the fact that there is a chance for substantial negotiations that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision on whether or not to go within the next two weeks.'"

Trump says he will decide on Iran attack within two weeks | AP News

Trump's announcement could be a few different things, or a combination of any of them:

• Misdirection, and he's already decided to go ahead (or to not go ahead)
• An honest opening for Iran to "return to the negotiating table"
• More than enough time for the US and Israel to agree on a joint-strike plan, though I'd have thought they would have one already

As I've said before, I'm ambivalent about US involvement: On the one hand, if it's the only way to take out Fordow (and any other hardened underground site), then it's probably worth US involvement. I'd rather see them try to equip Israel to do it themselves.

Iran has made noises about wanting to reopen talks BUT they've also made it clear they have no intention of complying with the primary US (and world) demand that they give up their uranium enrichment capability. In short, they're only saying they want to talk because the want a pause in the fighting to give them time to re-establish whatever defenses they can, re-establish military and intelligence leadership, and generally get back to some sort of balance because Israel has them quite off-balance right now.

As I noted on the show yesterday, Trump has put himself in a corner with his Truth Social posts threatening Iran with consequences if they keep attacking Israeli civilians and Trump demanded "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER". Now that Iran has kept attacking civilians, including a hospital, and explicitly refused anything close to surrender, waiting two weeks would make Trump seem like he's dithering, even weak. And that's the last way he wants to appear.

So if you were to ask me to bet on it, the "two weeks" announcement is 2% an opening for Iran to change their minds and start negotiating, and 98% misdirection while the US and Israel coordinate tactics for taking out Fordow and possibly other similar targets.

Finally, we should never forget that this is the same Iranian government that empowered Hezbollah to kill hundreds of American Marines in Beirut in 1983. Iran has tried to kill Americans (and Jews) whenever they thought they could get away with it in decades since. This is not like Iraq and, for somewhat different reasons, not even like Afghanistan. Iran is a multi-decade declared enemy of the US and the civilized world and they will never stop until someone stops them. No good reason we shouldn't be some part of that righteous effort.

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Today's Guests

I was so unconvinced by either of my guests the other day regarding whether to vote yes or no on Douglas County Home Rule (and, to be clear, I don't vote in DougCo) that I'm doing it again. Two guests, one after the other -- not at the same time, offering their views. This time the "no" side goes first.

Steve Boand is a former Castle Rock mayor & DougCo Commissioner and is against Home Rule

George Teal is a current DougCo Commissioner and supports Home Rule

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Barry Eisler is a former CIA operations officer (meaning an active spy) who I was connected with by my friend Dan Hoffman, former 3-time CIA station chief, including in Moscow. He's a multi-time best-selling author and his newest is a political thriller (not a spy novel) entitled "The System". I found it very interesting and somewhat surprising in that the heroine is an AOC-like figure. It's an intense indictment of the incestuous relationship between the military, specifically defense spending demands, and Congress.

Barry Eisler | Bestselling Author

The System: A Novel of the Deep State: Eisler, Barry

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ADM James Stavridis is a former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and SouthCom commander. He's a best-selling author of both fiction and non-fiction. His latest is "The Admiral's Bookshelf." We'll discuss his take on the Iran/Israel war and it's place in larger Middle East dynamics. We'll also talk about his scathing recent article describing President Trump as the foreign policy equivalent of an IED. No punches pulled in this one...

Admiral Stavridis

Trump's Foreign Policy Is Making the World More Dangerous - Bloomberg

The admiral is quoted in this article: Trump Buys Himself Time, and Opens Up Some New Options - The New York Times

The Admiral's Bookshelf: Stavridis, James G

(I also highly recommend his most recent fiction, the first in a series: The Restless Wave: A Novel of the United States Navy (Scott Bradley James series)

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Other Stuff

Welcome to summer. Today is the summer solstice and the longest day of the year. Isn't it interesting that the hottest days of the year are almost always quite some time after the day with the most sunshine? The cause is something often called "seasonal lag" and it can be different in different places for different reasons: Weather Wise: Seasonal Lag

Seasonal lag - Wikipedia

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I'll ask Admiral Stavridis about this:

Incredible! Captain Cook's HMS Endeavour confirmed to be in waters off Rhode Island after decades of research - CBS News

Historic HMS Endeavour shipwreck identified underwater near Newport, Rhode Island | Fox News

If you're cheering for this then don't complain when your cost of food or hotel stays or going out to a restaurant or building a house goes up significantly: Roughly One Million Illegals Estimated To Have Left US Since Trump Returned | The Daily Caller

This is remarkable: Exclusive | Border agents didn't release a single illegal migrant into the US last month : border patrol

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I called this right. Seemed obvious to me that the lower court was wrong. I do think a case about using the Marines for domestic law enforcement would be a more difficult legal question. US court allows Trump to keep control of National Guard in LA

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Ugh: Woman missing for months found buried under piles of hoarded trash in her own home

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These sort of things would be hurting Trump a lot right now if the Israel/Iran war weren't taking up some much attention in the news. And while I strongly support aggressive enforcement to rid the country of illegal aliens who have committed serious crimes while here or already have orders of removal against them, I don't support this at all. This is bad for the country and will hurt Republicans in the next two election cycles if Trump doesn't stop the evil and hateful Stephen Miller.

Plainclothes federal agent draws gun on man at stoplight in Pasadena | KTLA

BTW, I absolutely understand that ICE agents have good reason to be concerned. There are crazies out there looking to dox and maybe harm them. But if this were anybody else brandishing this way, he'd have been arrested within 5 minutes. This is not OK.

I also note that some videos of this nature may either be out of context or even AI and we have to be careful about what we believe.

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OK, THAT's funny!: Do You Have Low Testosterone? Look For These Warning Signs | Babylon Bee

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Gonna try to get to these things I haven't gotten to earlier in the week:

The most interesting thing in domestic politics right now: Trump confronts rare MAGA purity tests on Iran and immigration

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What a terrible story. Years of justice delayed or denied because police and politicians were afraid of being called "racist".

U.K. Grooming Gangs Report Finds Perpetrators Disproportionately Pakistani, Undermining Official Narrative | National Review

Keir Starmer defends U-turn on grooming gangs inquiry

The report: National Audit on Group-based Child Sexual Exploitation and Abuse

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Going to try to get a guest on this next week but sharing with you now: Colorado's economic outlook worsens due to federal budget | News | coloradopolitics.com

Colorado’s tax credits for EVs, e-bikes and heat pumps will be cut in half next year - The Colorado Sun

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There is actually some upside here, but probably at least as much risk: Social media now main source of news in US, research suggests

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Today's Videos - Lightening it up

Baseball fun: the hidden ball trick

Nope, can't be normal

Honesty