New Poll Reveals Favorite To Win 2028 Presidential Matchups

Vice President JD Vance is projected to defeat three Democratic favorites in hypothetical matchups for the 2028 presidential election, according to the latest Emerson College Polling survey released on Friday (July 25).

Vance defeated former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg by a 44% to 43% margin (13% undecided); Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez by a 44% to 41% margin (15% undecided) and California Gov. Gavin Newsom by a 45% to 42% margin (13%) undecided in the July 2025 national poll.

“A key takeaway from the ballot tests is that about 13% of the electorate remains persuadable, while the other 87% have already settled on a party preference,” said Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball.

Vance was reported to be the overwhelming favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination with 43% support in Echelon Insights' early poll released on July 14. Vance was reported to have a 33-point lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is reported to have 9% of support among Republican and Republican-leaning voters.

Former Vice President Kamala Harris was reported to be the clear frontrunner for the Democrats at 26%, followed by Buttigieg at 11% and Newsom at 10%. Ocasio-Cortez ranked fifth at 6%, having also trailed Sen. Cory Booker at 7%.

President Donald Trump's approval rating increased by one percentage point from June to July, according to the latest data released by Emerson College Polling. Trump is reported to have a 46% job approval rating, which is higher than the 45% reported in June, however, remains at a net approval rating of -1% with a current 47% disapproval rating and a 46% disapproval last month.

The president is also facing a majority disapproval rating on his administration's handling of the Epstein files (51%), the economy (51%) and immigration (46%), according to the survey.

“About six months into the second Trump administration, the president’s approval rating has stabilized in the mid-40s, while his disapproval has steadily increased about a point each month since the inauguration and now stands at 47%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “The president’s approval rating is strongest among men, at 53%, white voters, at 52%, and voters over 70, at 53%, whereas Trump’s approval is underwater among independent voters, at 38%, women, at 40%, Hispanics, at 38%, and Black voters, at 25%.”