Thurs Blogcast: Arapahoe Sheriff; Bourbon boom/bust;

Just One Thing: Inflation isn't dead

The market loves yesterday's CPI report which showed slightly lower than expected total CPI and slightly higher than expected "core" CPI (excluding food and energy.) I think the market rallied due to increased expectations of a Fed rate cut next month though odds were already high for one.

As of 7 AM this morning, stock index futures are modestly lower after the Producer Prices report came in MUCH hotter than expected: PPI inflation report July 2025:

I do believe that the public and President Trump have a false sense of complacency about the impact that tariffs will have on prices. I think companies will soon stop absorbing tariff costs, and more and more of them will be passed on to consumers. (This is the same viewpoint shared by Goldman Sachs a few days ago which caused President Trump to tell Goldman to fire their chief economist. Trump really is TERRIBLE on stuff like this. Never seen a guy more ready to blame a messenger for bad news that's caused by Trump's actions.)

Inflation shock: Core producer prices hit 3-year high in July in 'head-scratching' inflation surge

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Today's Guest

Arapahoe County Sheriff Tyler Brown joins the show. Lots of topics: Interacting with ICE; the terrible Senate Bill 3 that involves the sheriff in giving permission for citizens to take a class in order to get permission to buy certain types of firearms; Impact of voters passing debrucing of Arapahoe County; fentanyl

Welcome to Arapahoe County, CO - Official Website

Voters approve Issue 1A; see value in county services

SB3: Semiautomatic Firearms & Rapid-Fire Devices | Colorado General Assembly

And don't forget the REX Run coming up on September 6! RexRun For PAWSitivity

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Other Stuff

It's truly impossible to predict with any confidence what will happen in the near-term as far as Trump trying to get Putin to agree to end the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Trump threatens 'severe consequences' if Putin blocks Ukraine peace | Reuters

Russia says its demands are unchanged: full Ukrainian withdrawal from regions that Moscow claims | Reuters

A couple of thoughts without going as far as a prediction

• Trump wants, and arguably deserves, a Nobel Peace Prize. Finding a way to end this war should (but given how so many in the world hate Trump, might not) ensure he gets the prize. I think that's his primary motivation but I also don't particularly care what his motivation is; I care what his goal is.
• Again, Putin doesn’t believe Ukraine should exist. Much as Trump wants his legacy to be a Nobel Peace Prize, Putin wants his own legacy to be the guy who reassembled Greater Russia by destroying Ukraine as an independent nation.
• It's unclear that Putin is afraid of any threat made by Trump and this is, by far, the most important question
• Russia has made gains in eastern Ukraine in recent days and Putin probably feels like he's well positioned right now
• It's unclear that Putin cares what weapons Europe might give Ukraine
• Still, Putin would like to avoid any more American action against him so he will likely offer something that he thinks Trump will think sounds reasonable, even though it won't be reasonable. Then the question will be: Will it fool Trump into backing off of pressure on Russia or will Trump continue to feel, as he's rightly felt for some months now, that Putin is stringing him along?
• It's unclear that Putin can be moved by anything that any country will threaten him with as long as China is willing to keep buying Russian oil and/or gas.
• The chances of China being "convinced" not to buy Russian energy is not more than 1%.
• War and international relations are chaotic and exceptionally difficult to predict. Just because it's extremely difficult to think of any reason that Putin would agree to stop the war doesn't mean it can't happen. But I'd be shocked if it happened anytime soon, at least as long as the US makes clear that we will not engage militarily -- and it seems unlikely that we would, other than just selling weapons to Europe and/or Ukraine. That said, the WSJ reports that in a video conference with European leaders and Ukrainian president Zelenskyy yesterday, "Trump signaled that the U.S. would be willing to play a role in future security guarantees with Europe." That, as they say, is "big, if true." We’ll see if Trump says it out loud.
• Trump is doing fine keeping expectations low for the meeting. He should. But the "severe consequences" thing mentioned above does, as this article notes, raise the stakes: Trump's ceasefire goal raises stakes of Putin summit

This is worth your time: Putin Wants to Destroy Ukraine. Can Trump Stop Him?

To have in mind going into the meeting...from the WSJ article above:

European leaders and Zelensky presented Trump with five succinct red lines to carry into the Alaska summit: a cease-fire as a prerequisite for further talks; any territorial discussions to start from the current front lines; binding Western security guarantees that Russia must accept; Ukraine’s participation in the talks; and support from both the U.S. and Europe, including Ukraine, for any deal.

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A good explainer: Frequently asked questions — and misunderstandings — about Colorado’s special session to close a nearly $1B budget hole - The Colorado Sun

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I'd go to this kind of thing: ‘Never stop learning’: College professors give lectures in DC bars and cafes - WTOP News

Talks | Profs and Pints | United States

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I think I'd try this once...Heinz drops ketchup smoothie in Pittsburgh - Axios Pittsburgh

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These trends have been going for a while. It's part of the reason my friend Joe shut down Lukas Liquors.

US alcohol consumption at record low as health concerns rise, survey finds | Reuters

U.S. Drinking Rate at New Low as Alcohol Concerns Surge

And this: The U.S. Alcohol Industry Is Reeling From Canada’s Booze Boycott - WSJ

And specifically about bourbon:

How Kentucky bourbon went from boom to bust

No One Wants to Talk About the Oversupply of Scotch and Bourbon | VinePair

Kentucky whiskey faces declining sales, Bulleit down 7% | Lexington Herald Leader

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Love how each guy's AI kinda supports the other guy: Musk-Altman rivalry devolves into lawsuit threats, insults in social media brawl

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Maybe a massive breakthrough in the treatment of certain cancers, esp pancreatic: Off-the-shelf vaccine shows success against deadly cancers

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Probably a good topic while I'm broadcasting from Broncos training camp: The Presidential Fitness Test Was Humbling. I’m Glad It’s Back.

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A bunch of stuff I didn't get to yesterday...

One of many things that will change due to AI: Companies embrace in-person interviews to dodge the chatbots

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Good: Anti–Affirmative Action Group Settles With Military Academies

Settlement document: Bjbr

A key finding:

The Department of Defense has determined, based on the military’s experience and expertise—and after reviewing the relevant evidence—that the consideration of race and ethnicity in admissions at the MSAs does not promote military cohesiveness, lethality, recruitment, retention, or legitimacy; national security; or any other governmental interest. The United States no longer believes that the challenged practices are justified by a “compelling national security interest in a diverse officer corps.”

I come back, as always, to my main point on this kind of issue: We need to focus on why so many kids of a particular racial group (black) are, on average, less qualified to get into top universities. OF COURSE there are lots of black kids who ARE qualified, maybe number 1 in their high school class and otherwise extraordinary individuals. I'm talking about the average. And on average, the black community's ongoing challenges with boys being raised by single moms, with no strong male role model or discipline-giver, and the failure of government schools to prepare these kids for the future, is the real problem. Trying to overcome it by saying "we're going give an unqualified kid, or even a less-qualified kid, one of our precious admissions into this university because of skin color" is fraught with negative consequences including, often, for the kid (or young adult if you prefer.)

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While I get a little queasy about the idea of the government monitoring and guiding museums, the Smithsonian is basically a government entity and gets a massive amount of taxpayer money. Therefore, I do think it's legitimate for the government to require the museums to offer balance and a wide range of viewpoints in displays where such a concept is even relevant. But I don't think it would be OK for the government to tell the museum to, for example, take down a placard describing a painting that has a very anti-government or even angry-with-America message, assuming that's the message intended by the artist. Nor would I necessarily prohibit such art from being in the museum. This has to be about promoting a wide range, not narrowing what's acceptable.

Exclusive | White House to Vet Smithsonian Museums to Fit Trump’s Historical Vision - WSJ

Letter to the Smithsonian: Internal Review of Smithsonian Exhibitions and Materials – The White House

Today's Videos

This is NOT what I mean by sock, sock, shoe, shoe

That's like how I don't say "walk" in front of my dog unless we're really taking her for a walk