Tues Blogcast: Israel strikes; Crime & politics; Coloradans against D and R

BREAKING NEWS: Israel strikes Hamas leadership in Doha, Qatar

This is a very big deal with many ripple effects certain

Israel says it carried out an airstrike on Hamas leadership as explosions rock Doha | The Times of Israel

Two days ago, President Trump gave Hamas a "last warning" to make a deal to return the hostages being held in Gaza. Not only was there no progress, but there was a terrorist attack in Jerusalem yesterday which Hamas took credit for. See video just below...

After issuing 'last warning' to Hamas, Trump eyes Gaza deal 'soon' | Reuters

Today, for the first time ever, Israel struck targets -- Hamas leadership -- in Qatar. Hamas claims that they were meeting to discuss the US ceasefire proposal. I thank Hamas for creating a target-rich environment.

There's no way that attack happens without a go-ahead from President Trump which is part of why the implications are so wide and interesting.

Qatar is itself interesting, though not necessarily in a good way. They often act as intermediaries in conversations between civilized nations and terrorist groups. They talk as if they're an American ally. The US Air Force has a large presence at the Al Udeid Air Base hear Doha. And they also give lots of money to terrorist groups.

There is reporting that the Hamas leadership was meeting with a senior Iranian official. I don't know if the Iranian was present at the location of the strike.

Qatar is not politically or militarily in a position to attack Israel, and of course this attack wasn't against Qatar but rather against Hamas.

Many Israelis want the war in Gaza to end and to get the hostages back, even if it means that Hamas survives. Bibi Netanyahu is not on that same page; he wants Hamas utterly exterminated. To the extent that this strike on Hamas leadership slows or stops negotiations, that benefits Bibi's efforts to persevere against Hamas.

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A real hero

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Just One Thing: Dems release the supposed Trump birthday note to Epstein

When the Wall Street Journal reported on the existence of a birthday note from Donald Trump to Jeffrey Epstein for Epstein's 50th birthday, Trump immediately threatened to sue, claiming that the whole thing was fake and that it caused him great harm. I think both of those claims are false.

Now, Democrats on the House Oversight Committee have released a picture of the actual card/note. It's exactly as described.

House Democrats release lewd birthday message Trump allegedly sent to Jeffrey Epstein

House Oversight gets Jeffrey Epstein's birthday book made by Ghislaine Maxwell

I have some thoughts:

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Today's Guests

Dr Tim Currie is CEO of Nova, which provides onshore and nearshore IT services and talent, and author of Swift Trust – Mastering Relationships In The Remote Work Revolution.

We'll discuss some interesting polling about which workers most want and least want fully remote jobs: Fully Remote Work Least Popular With Gen Z

Swift Trust: Mastering Relationships in the Remote Work Revolution: Currie, Dr. Tim: Amazon.com: Books

About Nova: Engineering Solutions & Staff Augmentation Services

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David Flaherty is president of Colorado-based polling organization Magellan Strategies. They have some very interesting new results from a survey of Colorado voters that show, unsurprisingly, that this state hates Donald Trump but ALSO that, like in so many other places in the country, voters are skeptical that elected Democrats have the state on the right track, and as "unfavorable" as the views are of the Republican Party in this survey, the Democrats fare even worse.

Colorado 2025 Voter Opinion Survey

Topline data here: Magallan-Strategies-Colorado-2025-Voter-Opinion-Survey-Topline-Results-090125.pdf

Fascinating how many people say the economy is "poor" and getting worse...that's the stuff that changes elections but it's an interesting dynamic when you have one party controlling the federal government and another party controlling the state...who will voters blame?

Trump policies deeply unpopular in Colorado poll - Axios Denver

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Other Stuff

This horrific story is this week's bludgeon for beating up Democrats...so much so that it feels like we're somewhat losing sight of the main point, that a young woman, utterly minding her own business, was murdered (by someone who appears to have significant mental health issues, which is an interesting but not mitigating part of the tragedy.)

Ukrainian woman stabbed to death in unprovoked attack while riding train in North Carolina: Police - ABC News

District Attorney Merriweather talks judicial system constraints following light rail killing - Axios Charlotte

Read this and you can see how the Dems are in a very dangerous spot right now if they try to push back on the narrative -- even though it's absolutely true that crime rates are way down over the past few years and, in many places, the lowest they've been in a few decades. Charlotte Murder Exposes Democrat Failures After Career Criminal Freed by Woke Policies – The White House

Interesting tangent: A Woman Was Stabbed to Death on a Train. Wikipedia Might Pretend It Never Happened.

Last thing on the Charlotte murder: The Taboo That Killed Iryna Zarutska - by Kat Rosenfield

The gap between the public perception of crime and actual levels of crime (the former MUCH higher than the latter for probably 30 years now) persists. It used to be primarily (in my opinion) due to the media's "if it bleeds, it leads" mentality but every once in a while, including right now, it turns into a political football. Here's an example from 18 years ago: Perceptions of Crime Problem Remain Curiously Negative

In recent years, there's been a MASSIVE gap between Republicans' perception of crime rates and that of Democrats, the former being much higher: Smaller Majorities Say Crime In U.S. Is Serious, Increasing

And this, from just a month ago, is very interesting: The great crime paradox

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More on the politics of crime:

I suspect that the Trump administration will talk very loudly about using the National Guard in what sounds like a law-enforcement role but actually restrict them to functions that are at least superficially legal, like protecting federal personnel. In the meantime, the Democrats just keep losing on the issue of crime.

DHS Launches Immigration Crackdown in Chicago Despite Local Pushback | National Review

DHS announces "Operation Midway Blitz" amid ICE operations in Chicago

Is ICE chilling Chicago? Trump 'blitz' draws rage from immigrants

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Just because AI will be transformative doesn't mean it's immediate:

Behind the Curtain: Slow, hard AI (Axios)

The ‘productivity paradox’ of AI adoption in manufacturing firms | MIT Sloan

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An interesting read from an old-school moderate conservative (David Brooks of the NY Times): Opinion: Why I am not a liberal

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I should have gotten to this yesterday: PNC to buy FirstBank for $4.1B, expanding to Arizona, Colorado - The Colorado Sun

Lakewood-based FirstBank accepts a buyout offer from PNC

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Fun story: Small ski hill at CMC in Leadville offers big opportunities for resorts

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A corny story: Denver emergency crews pull Frito-Lay employee out of corn silo

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AI to defend against AI: When It Comes to Spotting Fake Receipts, It’s A.I. vs. A.I. - The New York Times

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It's the little things: Young fan tears up after receiving player's glove at first Broncos game | FOX31

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Wow:

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Please don't ever watch or support Tucker Carlson again. He's turned from interesting to silly to evil over just a few years. If you are a supporter of civilization, he is now the enemy.

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Some good comments here: Denver Voters Could Overturn Ban on Flavored Tobacco Products | Westword

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This came up coincidentally on KOA’s news broadcast yesterday just after I asked listeners their thoughts about whether college is worth it: Trade schools struggle to staff up as student demand grows | FOX31

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I suspect that Trump did what she said. And then he just wouldn't shut up, wouldn't stop calling her a liar in public even when a court warned him to stop and even after he lost a court case for such defamation. Appeals court upholds $83 million judgment against Trump in Carroll case

Trump Loses Bid to Overturn $83 Million Damages Award to E. Jean Carroll - WSJ

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Some of the most ridiculous "research" I've ever seen: Scientists find a surprising reason why people are eating more sugar | CNN

The paper itself: Rising temperatures increase added sugar intake disproportionately in disadvantaged groups in the USA | Nature Climate Change

Here's my email to the lead author:

Dear Professor Pan,

I have two questions about your recent paper.

First, how did you control for the possibility that the intake of sugar among any particular population might increase without any change in average temperature? (In other words, how do you avoid finding correlation without causation?)

Second, why do you speculate about sugar intake under the SSP5-8.5 scenario when it’s well known that that scenario is impossible now? What is a "Worst Case" Climate Scenario?

Best,

Ross

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Today's Videos

I love how excited these guys are

Trio of men use slingshot to make cornhole shot from 151 feet - UPI.com

This'll put a smile on your face