Thurs Blogcast: Obama's errors; Best Day Ever; Chuck Lane re death penalty

Vigil for Charlie Kirk at Colorado State University this evening

This was planned to be a stop on Kirk's "Prove Me Wrong" tour but is now something else...though still an official Turning Point USA event.

I don't know if registration is still open, but if you're interested: Turning Point USA at Colorado State University Vigil for Charlie Kirk

Charlie Kirk's Turning Point USA tour stop at Colorado State University will now be a vigil after his killing - CBS Colorado

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Just One Thing: Obama's errors

There's a LOT wrong with Barack Obama's analysis, but I'll just mention two things:

After Kirk’s Killing, Obama Says the Nation Is in a ‘Political Crisis’ - The New York Times

First, it might be true that in the future some of the most hardcore Charlie Kirk fans might try to use his death to avoid debating Kirk's ideas, just because they don't want the debate. But that's unlikely because Kirk's very brand was debate. More importantly, in the immediate aftermath of the murder of Charlie Kirk -- I mean there hasn't even been the funeral yet -- it's absolutely reasonable for supporters or opponents of good-will to say, "hey, can we at least wait until after the family has buried their husband and father until we debate and what he said on his podcast that you seem to be so bothered by?"

And second, it's bulls**t for Obama to raise the issue of Dylan Roof, a vile racist mass-murderer, as if that exceptionally evil person is in any way a fair comparison to Charlie Kirk -- even if you really didn't like Kirk. This goes back to something I've been saying for a few days: the left lives in an exceedingly immoral and dangerous world in which words (that they don't like) are the moral equivalent of violence and therefore merit a violent response. That mindset, so common on the left, represents the exact opposite of arguably the most important founding principle of this nation.

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One More Thing: Jimmy Kimmel literally (and deservedly) canceled

Here's what Jimmy Kimmel said several days after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, when it was already clear that the killer was not conservative or MAGA (even though he did come from a conservative family.) Kimmel absolutely knew he was lying.

ABC Pulls Jimmy Kimmel Off Air for Charlie Kirk Comments - The New York Times

FCC Chair Threatens Jimmy Kimmel Over Charlie Kirk Monologue

Why the White House forced out Kimmel (Semafor.com)

Interesting line from the last link: "This administration is full of people whose defining experience in politics was getting tossed off a social platform, and they now have no patience for their enemies’ complaints about government overreach."

Putting pressure on ABC to do something, some local ABC affiliates reacted almost immediately by saying they wouldn't air Kimmel's show:

And if that wasn't enough, the chairman of the FCC, Brendan Carr, basically threatened ABC. I have to say that I don't like this at all. Imagine how bad this precedent could be the next time there's a very liberal FCC chairman who doesn't like something on Fox (or any other network that might lean right or even centrist.)

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Fed Cuts Rates

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Donald Trump is right: The Fed should have cut rates earlier this year. Well, they did yesterday for the first time in about 9 months. They had been holding off, they claimed, because of inflation risks due to tariffs. And, yes, that's a legit risk but I think rates are too high even considering that.

Yesterday, the story changed somewhat. Fed Chairman Jay Powell said that overall risks had become more balanced because:

1. While tariff inflation risk remains, we haven't seen as much of it as feared or as quickly as feared. There are two likely reasons for this: some businesses are "eating" the tariffs (thus hurting corporate profits and, probably, employment), and there is downward price pressure in other parts of the economy, including services.
2. Employment data have been consistently weak since Trump started a global trade war. (And with the massive revision for the prior period of April 2024 to March 2024, the employment picture was already weaker than it had seemed.)

So, again, while the Fed has an argument to keep rates somewhat high because of fear of inflation (primarily due to tariffs), the second of their "dual mandate" goals, employment, argues for cutting rates. And given that the Fed Funds rate is well above neutral, it's unsurprising that they cut yesterday.

The newest member of the FOMC, Trump loyalist Stephen Miran, was the only vote for a 50 basis point cut.

As far as that goes, I think based purely on economic data, the Fed could easily have justified a 50 basis point cut. I think the best reason not to have done that is that if they did, market participants might ask "do they think we are in recession?" and be spooked by the aggressive move.

It's likely that we get two more rate cuts this year, and there are only 2 meetings left year, so you'll probably see a quarter-point cut at each of those meetings, at the end of October and in early December.

As far as investing, I find this a very difficult time. On the one hand, I do think a recession is likely within a year (but that's always a VERY difficult thing to predict) which would typically be bad for stocks. On the other hand, the maxim "don't fight the Fed" has historical validity, meaning stocks often do very well (especially growth/tech stocks) in a declining-rate environment.

Also, remember that the Fed controls short rates, i.e. interest rates for overnight or 30-day loans, typically between banks), not long rates (like mortgages) on loans that last for years.

Fed rate cut: What it means for mortgage rates and the housing market | AP News

Today's Guests

Joe Truitt is Owner of Best Day Ever Coffee and Crepes in Loveland. We'll talk about his kind, generous and wonderful mission.

Best Day Ever Coffee & Crepes - Inclusive Café in Longmont, CO

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Charles "Chuck" Lane is a senior nonresident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a contributor to The Free Press. I saw an interesting note by Chuck at The FP about the death penalty and asked him to join me to discuss/debate, because I'm in a different place than he is but our evolutions have some interesting parallels.

Why I Changed My Mind About the Death Penalty

The Free Press | Bari Weiss | Substack

Charles Lane | American Enterprise Institute - AEI

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Other Stuff

Gosh it's hard to feel bad for liberals who suddenly feel what so many conservatives (and, as always, libertarians) have felt for years or decades: Axios CEO Jim VandeHei: Advice for liberals

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Data like this explain a LOT: Polls Show Rising Number of Americans Justify Political Violence

Note: the rise is almost entirely among liberals, especially young liberals.

NCRI Assassination Culture Brief: NCRI

And another survey with similar results: What Americans really think about political violence | YouGov

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Clever: Scuba-clad man robs Disney Springs restaurant, swims away - WFTV

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Good riddance: Why Jerry Greenfield is leaving Ben & Jerry's after 47 years | AP News

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I'm not sure I want to even link to this article because it's so terribly, terribly heartbreaking: Family shares story of Evergreen shooting victim | FOX31

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My gut instinct is almost always against a union but they might have a legit claim: Starbucks workers sue over company’s new dress code | FOX31 Denver

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Reminds me of my youth: DC approves RFK Stadium project for Washington Commanders - Axios Washington D.C.

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This student has been expelled:

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Can they or can't they? Teller County couple stand ground on “illegal” greenhouse

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I need to get to this one: Are Protein Bars Good for You? What to Know About Nutrition. - The New York Times

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Today's Videos

What the heck is this?

This made me chuckle