How are we feeling about Matt McLain?

Reds

Matt McLain is one of, if not the biggest key to the Reds 2026 season. And the Reds have clearly pushed their chips to the middle on him. He was their guy last season. He is their guy this season.

How confident should we feel about that?

Called up in May of 2023, McLain batted .290 with 16 homers in 89 games, finishing 5th in NL Rookie of the Year voting. He looked like the Reds 2B for the next decade.

His sophomore season was wiped out due to a left shoulder injury suffered in spring training that required surgery. 

The Reds gave him enough rope in 2025 to play in 147 games, and get 577 plate appearances, 3rd most on the team. His roster status never appeared to be in jeopardy. Terry Francona admitted to me he was ‘stubborn’ in sticking with Matt, because he believed so much in him. 

Francona tried everything…..trying McLain in the 2nd spot in the order (66 starts) and in the 9th spot (51 starts). Other than a catch-fire month of June, when he hit .287-467-437-.804, he never hit. Just .159 in April, .194 in May, and .205 in September. 

McLain did contribute 15 homers (T-3rd), while driving in 50 and swiping 18 bases.  He was 3rd in runs (77) and 4th walks (55).

So, what does the 2026 version of McLain look like? The difference in performance in his two seasons has been stark:

2023: .290-.357-.507-.864

2025: .220-.300-.343-.643

How much better can he be in 2026, a full year removed from the shoulder surgery?

How much of his performance was injury related? How much was it a ‘sophomore slump’ after the league adjusted to him?

How long is that leash if he struggles in 2026? What’s Plan B? Gavin Lux is gone. He made 16 starts at 2B last season. Santiago Espinal is gone. He made 14 starts there. Sal Stewart has played 2B in the minors, but wasn’t an option there once he was called up, and has indicated he was told to work on 1B and 3B. Tyler Callihan, coming back from injury, has played mostly 2B in the minors. But he has just six MLB plate appearances.  

McLain is a plus fielder, a plus base runner, and probably has the highest baseball IQ on the team. But he’s got to hit to make this offense click. 

Will he? 

That answer likely goes a long way in determining how far the Reds go in 2026.

As Marty B. would say......How we lookin'?