January 11, 2020 • 23 mins
Colin doesn't do an official Blazing 5 for during the playoffs but he does go over all four games of the divisional round with RJ Bell of Fox Sports Radio and Pregame.com and RJ tells him which side the sharps in Vegas are on. Plus, they preview the National Championship between Clemson and LSU to see which side is the right side.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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by the United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Alright. R. J.
Bell pregame dot Com host the show Straight out of
Vegas six to seven Eastern on Fox Sports Readio his
Twitter handle at r j in Vegas. As I've said,
(01:29):
during the regular season, I get fourteen fifteen games to
choose from. That's why I have a blazing five. But
in the playoffs there's often just one game I like.
I like Philadelphia last week until Carson Wentz got hurt.
So here we go in a four playoff games, forty
Niners minus seven at home. My gut would be the
(01:49):
line's right. I would take Minnesota plus the points, mostly
because I think their defense and their coaching will keep
it close. I think there is some pressure on Jimmy
g In, Kyle Shanahan. This is new territory for them,
a lot of pressure. I would take Minnesota and the points,
but I think the number is pretty much right on
what do the wise guys think a lot of wisdom
(02:09):
calling what you just said A couple of things. One
five games out of fifteen or sixteen in the regular season, okay,
but one in three games, right, Well, if you only
play one in three now, you're gonna play one game
typically right in that range. If you're playing three out
of four or four out of four. The only way
to win is if the line is incorrect and you
(02:31):
just said, hey, the line's right now. If you're right
about that, you could play the favorite, you could play
the dog. You're gonna win about half the time, but
you're gonna lose because of that big that dastardly big.
So very important, probably the most important lesson for the listeners.
You can't play every game when there's only four games.
All that said, I lean strongly to San fran two.
(02:53):
You know at home best point differential in the NFL. Okay, Yeah,
And I mean just don't get you don't You're not
hearing that conversation. It's only one season, but remember back
in the Walsh days, that was a heck of a
home field advantage they had up there. On the season,
forty Niners have the third best net yards differential, So
(03:16):
how many yards did they gain? How many yards of
the opponents game? And it's interesting of the top nine teams,
only two of them were in the playoffs. This was
a year Dallas was the second best yard is differential
and in any one game you could say, well they
threw for a lot against Green Bay, but across sixteen
games a season. The yard is differential was very meaningful.
(03:39):
I think we've got some overrated teams this year in
the playoffs, and we'll get to some of them here
in a few minutes. Here's the question, and let me
ask you about the forty first seven games of the year.
Best defense right there with New England in the NFL.
Eleven points per game they gave up. That was number one.
Last nine games, they've given up twenty six points per game,
(04:02):
which d do we see? Well? Remember in the final
nine games, they did play the Ravens and the Saints,
so you face some really good quarterbacks. They also had
injuries to deal with. I don't think their defense is
as bad as the last nine or as good as
the first seven, but it is healthier. My, my, my,
My issue here is I think the narrative is Jimmy
(04:23):
G is much better than Kirk Cousins. I think he's better,
but I think it's close, and I think the rosters
are close. That's why I like Minnesota. Yeah, So if
you look at Jimmy G and Cousins, if you look
at the qb R, which is a very respected ranking,
Jimmy G number twelve, Cousins number thirteen. Here's the thing
about Cousins, and we actually broke this research, uh two
(04:46):
months ago. Cousins start time. When he starts at one
o'clock Eastern games, an early game typical Sunday. In his career,
he's covered about sixty six percent of the time. No
quarterback in NFL history, across his entire career, has ever
covered that much, which says Jimmy or Check that Cousins
(05:09):
at one o'clock is better against vegas spread than any
quarterback has ever been for his career. Now, if you
look at the flip side non one o'clock starts, he
only covers a third of the time, about thirty three.
And no quarterback of any length of career has ever
been that bad. So Cousins is as good as anyone's
ever been against the Vegas spread at one o'clock and
(05:31):
as bad as anyone's ever been when it's a non
one o'clock start. To me, that's probably worth three or
four points. And I mean we looked at it at
length and said, well, let's be conservative, let's no three
or four points. I don't think you can play Minnesota,
or at least not with my money if it's a
situation where it's not a one o'clock start, So I'm
gonna lean in San France. What's time a starting time
(05:53):
for this game? But this one's four thirty Eastern is
the time though local time, it's it's one thirty alright,
So Ravens minus nine and a half hosting the Titans.
I would take the Ravens here. And here's why. Um,
when you look at franchises that have these kind of
historic wins, and this is arguably the biggest win for
(06:13):
the Titans. It feels like in a decade. I think
it's really hard emotionally to match it. And it wasn't
only a win. It was beating the dynasty. It was Belichick,
Brady Foxboro. I think it's hard to fly back home
and then go all right, emotionally, let's go and not
only match that effort. We'll have to be better this week. Um.
I think Baltimore is their defense is the story as
(06:35):
much as Lamar. But Lamar is so fascinating. He's kind
of taking the oxygen out of the room. I think
this is one of the best defenses currently in the league.
So I'm gonna take Baltimore to to win here by
double digits. What would the wise guys say, a lot
of surprises. I think people were gonna be surprised. I agree.
(06:56):
And here's the thing about double digit favorites is nine
and a half now, so it's right in that range.
In the regular season, it's almost always dog or pass
for me, and the reason being, there's a percentage chance
that the favorite is gonna be a little flat. They're
gonna look past the team just a little bit because hey,
they're double digit favorites. You never look past the team
(07:19):
in the playoffs, so what you get is a clearly
superior team with total focus, and those teams tend to
cover the spread. In fact, double digit favorites eight straight
in the playoffs have covered. Now, again, this is nine
and a half. It's not like we like it better
if it goes to ten. It's just saying this is
that type of game. Also, there's a trend out there.
(07:40):
You'll see different numbers. A team that knocks out the
Super Bowl champion from the playoffs tends to be flat
the next week, they're significantly below five against the spread.
By the way, that's why I've said Clemson over Ohio
State was my College better the year Baltimore over the
Titans is my the one game so far in the playoffs.
I'm gonna take my money and betted on the Ravens.
(08:02):
Your point is mine. This is about emotion. I think
this is a bad spot for Tennessee. I agree, and
and also and this is something I think I don't
think I've heard anyone talk about. I think you got
to hold vary Well accountable for this week seventeen, they
had to win against Houston, locked up, they were in
(08:23):
the playoffs, and they kept feeding the ball to Henry,
fed the ball. He had over thirty carries. Why to
win the rushing title? Now that was it? There was
no other reason. Then he had thirty plus carries against
New England the next week. In his entire career, before
those two games, he had one game with thirty plus carries.
Now he's doing it two in a row, and now
(08:44):
it's a third straight road game. He's if he's not fatigued,
then why aren't backs running thirty plus every game? I mean,
this is the definition of Henry being a little bit,
at minimum a little bit I think compromise. And really,
why why the rushing title? Who's gonna remember that. Uh now,
last thing you mentioned the defense for the Ravens. To me,
(09:06):
it's not just oh, mid season, it was an arbitrary
start time that all of a sudden they started playing well,
no Jimmy Smith when he came back healthwise, and they
got Peters from the Rams. Since then, their defense has
been outstanding. So I love when a trend changes, and
we'll get to that a little bit in Kansas City.
(09:27):
When there's a reason for it, it's not just oh,
it just started. It's like you can clearly say that's
why the Ravens defense got better and really maybe one
of the best seasons we've ever seen against the spread.
And oh, by the way, Ravens first team to enter
the playoffs in a twelve game winning streak since the
undefeated Patriots in two thousand seven. This is a very
(09:47):
good team agreement. Ravens. Weight loss starts with the mind,
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brought to you by the United States Forest Service and
the AD Council. I would bet a little bit on
the Chiefs minus eight and a half. First of all,
it's Andy Reid off of by you and I have
discussed it. Great coaches are often better off buys. There's
five or six coaches who were elite. Hardbaugh, Sean Payton,
Andy Reid, Belichick. First thing. Second that the Texans are
(11:37):
kind of a talented mess um. Once again, they fall
into a deep hole right side of their offensive lines,
not trustable, and you know, Deshaun makes a flag football
play and wins. I think this could get ugly. I
think Kansas City's defense has played great, had a lot
of new faces, and I you know, I was asking
a guest on the show this week, um and I
(11:58):
asked him when you go to a new team, how
long does it take as a player to figure out
the defense? And he said, you know, it's the second
half of the season. You want to be running, not thinking.
So I'm gonna take Kansas City's revamped defense is really
playing now with a great deal of speed over the Texans.
What would the wise guys say, you know, we're all
feeling pretty good as straight out of Vegas that you've
adopted our feelings on Kansas City column. I remember I
(12:21):
am now all in. I remember right here, and it was, hey,
let's get pheasant credit. He was the first in the
country saying hey, when Kansas City was four and oh
what did they have? They had a defense about as
good as last year, and my home's healthy. Then about
four or five games ago, my homes was healthy again,
and the defense was better because it was the first
(12:43):
year with a coordinator. And if all you did college
or pro was take a coordinator, a new one and
fade them the first third of the season, be neutral
the middle third, and be on them the final third,
that's it. Blind, you'd probably win a little tight. You'd
hit like fifty two and a half percent. I think.
So there really is a bias to what you said.
(13:04):
And the irony is the marketplace gets more excited early
because they had the whole offseason to talk about the
new coordinator. Oh, this is gonna change things, and then
when people get disappointed early, they jump off the bandwagon.
I think Kansas City right now, I mean in in
a lot of years, Kansas City would clearly be the
best team in the or in the NFL. It's an example, though,
(13:27):
with Baltimore being so good, you talking about any read
off of bye in his career and five straight up,
nineteen and nine against the spread, so very very very good.
Let's talk and quantify that Kansas City defense. First ten
games they allowed twenty four points a game, last six
only twelve points a game. Now a competition, blah blah blah.
(13:50):
But if you look at the Football Outsiders d v
o A for those six games, the eighth best defense
in the NFL. So if Kansas City truly has the
eighth best defense, they might be better than Baltimore. I
mean that, that's if it ends up being those two
in the five or conference finals. What a game? Last thing?
And I agree with you here by the way, Kansas City,
(14:11):
I like him. Houston was outgained on the season, right,
more yards they were outscored on the season. No team
this century, all right, has made the conference finals in
which they were outgained and outscored. Seven of them made
the division round, oh and seven straight up one in
six against the spread. So you can get so far
(14:32):
being kind of a lucky team. And remember in close
games Houston's nine and three this season. That doesn't maintain.
They would be the first team ever to be outgaining outscored.
That would make the conference finals this century agreement. Kansas
City are guys looked it up this weekend. They also
trailed more than they led this year. Oh the game
control stat that that those are always interesting? Uh finally,
(14:56):
um listen. I think Seattle is now a one dimensional team.
They can't run. I don't think one dimensional teams can
go on the road and beat a team that has
multidimensional assets on offense, green Bay. So I take green
Bay to win. The number at four and a half
is pretty tasty because Seattle here's my thing. If it's close,
I like Seattle to win. I don't know if it
(15:17):
will be. I think green Bay scores early. Seattle will
be playing from behind. They don't have a running game anymore,
so I think green Bay wins four and a half.
I would stay away from this. I think it's gonna
be on the number, but if I had to, I'd
probably go Seattle. What would the wise guys say? Green Bay?
And this is one of those games in which I
(15:40):
had no opinion yesterday And this season I've allowed myself
and you know, hey, it's my twenty second year in Vegas, right,
I mean my late forties. I've done this since I
was fourteen. I keep trying to evolve. And one of
the things this season I'm really happy about is you
just let those games sit out there, don't force an opinion,
you know, on them, and sometimes it just hits you, like,
(16:02):
what what am I miss? How did I miss this?
How did I miss the fact that Green Bay has
maybe the best home field in the NFL? Which I
knew that, So the line of four wouldn't say these
are even teams. Now you might say, okay, well, both
teams were outgained on the season. By the way, this
is only the second time again the century that two
teams in the Division Round are later Matt and both
(16:24):
were out gained on their season, and Seattle was only
outpointed opponents by seven. So I mean, this is like
Houston except they got Russell Wilson. But you might say,
well they still have Russell Wilson. Yeah. Seattle was eleven
and two and one score games including the playoffs. That's
the most in the history of the NFL. Tied with
the two thousand fifteen Broncos of winning one score game.
(16:45):
So they win one more one score game, they'll be
in some ways the luckiest team ever. You might say
Russell Wilson's what's causing that. In his career prior to
this year, Russell Wilson was three games below five hundred
and one score games. So did he just all of
a sudden get great at it. I'm not saying he
hasn't taken a step this year. It's not supposed to
be eleven and two in these games, and if you
(17:08):
just lost even a couple more of them, they might
not have even made the playoffs. So to me, green
Bay is a little overrated. I think Seattle is way overrated.
The line is saying these are even teams because green
Bay's home field so good. I am starting to love
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one more um, I like Clemson plus six Monday Night.
I'll give you my theory on it. You you live
in Vegas and you've gone to Tyson fights. So if
you for the boxers who had never faced Mike Tyson, Um,
(18:38):
there was this The rule on Tyson was get to
the fourth round he tires, But the barrage and the
intensity of his power was so much early it kept
even good fighters on their heels. So Clemson played a
lousy schedule all year, the a CCS easily the worst
conference Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Hall downs, so they
(19:00):
really hadn't faced a roster, a well coached roster of
NFL athletes until Ohio State. And like Tyson, they were
back on their heels for a little more than a quarter.
But by the middle second quarter on Clemson average seven
point four yards a play Ohio State. All those draft
(19:22):
picks Chase Young could not stop them. No turnovers late uh,
no interceptions, few penalties. They were playing comfortable football. Well,
now they play l s U having played Ohio State,
so they will be a much better team early where
I think a better staff and a better quarterback. I
(19:43):
love Clemson plus six here. What would the wise guys
or you say, Well, here's the first thing I'd say,
is it true? This is a rumor that you have
a big Michael Spins ticket that you know obviously they
in cash in your office. I do not, No, you're
those Tyson fights man, all right, agreement, and I think
(20:05):
you made it a little complicated. I think all you
gotta do in this game is look at what the
projected line was and these weren't projected like oh, let's
put in the newspaper. These were battable lines. So there
were four possible finals, right, So they had all four
matchups on the board before last games, right, the semifinals.
The line in the Clemson L s U was pick them. Now.
(20:28):
What happened in the interim? I agree, I think you
maybe even you might downgrade Clemson a little bit off
that win. I mean, it was kind of like but
still they were at worst it was, and they were
right in there with a High State and they won.
So congrats, and let's be candid. L s U looked
as good as any team can look, So upgrade then
maybe two points. And Brad Powers, who does our power ratings,
(20:49):
and he's done our this show numerous times, he's had
a situation where he says, all right, let's give L
s U two points. That's about as much as you
can upgrade a team this late in the year. And
let's say he actually down graded Clemson one off the
High State win, which seems counterintuitive, but Vegas is saying,
what do we know about this team? Now? We didn't
know before, and he didn't he wasn't all that impressed
with Clemson. Still, this line should be less than three.
(21:12):
So six is just the public has gotten so excited
the Heisman winner. They're blowing everybody out. I think this
line keeps going up. And one of the great important
things you need to do is a batter is decide
when the bat. So if you're listening on Saturday morning,
my advice, we never know for sure. You might be
able to get a six and a half or even
a seven. Now there's a chance you might lose points,
(21:34):
so you've got to make a calculated risk. But this
is pure value Clemson. R J Bell Pregame dot Com. Uh,
have a great weekend. We'll talk in a couple of weeks.
We'll talk soon. We'll talk before the super Bowl, will
do a show, and the next week we'll do a show.
So we have a few more his Twitter handle. As
(21:55):
always be careful that social media. Kids. It's a very
very toxic out there at r J in Vegas and
a show is Straight out of Vegas six to seven
Eastern on Fox Sports Radio. It's through the roof this year,
the podcast, the ratings through the Roof. Have a good weekend,
r J. Thank you. When others treat your fries as
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Adoption of teams from foster care is a topic on
(23:00):
enough people know about, and we're here to change that.
I'm April Dinuity, host of the new podcast Navigating Adoption,
presented by adopt us Kids. Each episode brings you compelling,
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(23:20):
us Kids, brought to you by the U. S. Department
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Did you know Amazon provides ways of working that fit
your lifestyle. They know you value your time outside of work,
juggling family, school, friends, or other activities. That's why they
offer a variety of shifts that work for you. There
are full time, part time, and even temporary opportunities that
can work with your schedule with great starting pay and
sign on bonuses. If you want a career that fits
(00:22):
and adapts to your lifestyle, head to Amazon dot com
slash apply. Amazon is a proud equal opportunity employer. Mama,
what does the chicken say? Draft? Draft? Really? Giraffe draft?
(00:44):
You're not gonna get it all right. Just make sure
you know the big stuff, like making sure your kids
are buckled correctly in the right seat for their agent's eyes.
Get it right. Visits n h s A dot gov
slash the Right Seat, brought to you by the National
Highway Traffic Safety Administration and the AD Council. Look for
your children's eyes and you will discover the t magic
(01:06):
of a forest. Find a forest near you and start
exploring it. Discover the forest dot Org, brought to you
by the United States Forest Service and the AD Council. Alright. R. J.
Bell pregame dot Com host the show Straight out of
Vegas six to seven Eastern on Fox Sports Readio his
Twitter handle at r j in Vegas. As I've said,
(01:29):
during the regular season, I get fourteen fifteen games to
choose from. That's why I have a blazing five. But
in the playoffs there's often just one game I like.
I like Philadelphia last week until Carson Wentz got hurt.
So here we go in a four playoff games, forty
Niners minus seven at home. My gut would be the
(01:49):
line's right. I would take Minnesota plus the points, mostly
because I think their defense and their coaching will keep
it close. I think there is some pressure on Jimmy
g In, Kyle Shanahan. This is new territory for them,
a lot of pressure. I would take Minnesota and the points,
but I think the number is pretty much right on
what do the wise guys think a lot of wisdom
(02:09):
calling what you just said A couple of things. One
five games out of fifteen or sixteen in the regular season, okay,
but one in three games, right, Well, if you only
play one in three now, you're gonna play one game
typically right in that range. If you're playing three out
of four or four out of four. The only way
to win is if the line is incorrect and you
(02:31):
just said, hey, the line's right now. If you're right
about that, you could play the favorite, you could play
the dog. You're gonna win about half the time, but
you're gonna lose because of that big that dastardly big.
So very important, probably the most important lesson for the listeners.
You can't play every game when there's only four games.
All that said, I lean strongly to San fran two.
(02:53):
You know at home best point differential in the NFL. Okay, Yeah,
And I mean just don't get you don't You're not
hearing that conversation. It's only one season, but remember back
in the Walsh days, that was a heck of a
home field advantage they had up there. On the season,
forty Niners have the third best net yards differential, So
(03:16):
how many yards did they gain? How many yards of
the opponents game? And it's interesting of the top nine teams,
only two of them were in the playoffs. This was
a year Dallas was the second best yard is differential
and in any one game you could say, well they
threw for a lot against Green Bay, but across sixteen
games a season. The yard is differential was very meaningful.
(03:39):
I think we've got some overrated teams this year in
the playoffs, and we'll get to some of them here
in a few minutes. Here's the question, and let me
ask you about the forty first seven games of the year.
Best defense right there with New England in the NFL.
Eleven points per game they gave up. That was number one.
Last nine games, they've given up twenty six points per game,
(04:02):
which d do we see? Well? Remember in the final
nine games, they did play the Ravens and the Saints,
so you face some really good quarterbacks. They also had
injuries to deal with. I don't think their defense is
as bad as the last nine or as good as
the first seven, but it is healthier. My, my, my,
My issue here is I think the narrative is Jimmy
(04:23):
G is much better than Kirk Cousins. I think he's better,
but I think it's close, and I think the rosters
are close. That's why I like Minnesota. Yeah, So if
you look at Jimmy G and Cousins, if you look
at the qb R, which is a very respected ranking,
Jimmy G number twelve, Cousins number thirteen. Here's the thing
about Cousins, and we actually broke this research, uh two
(04:46):
months ago. Cousins start time. When he starts at one
o'clock Eastern games, an early game typical Sunday. In his career,
he's covered about sixty six percent of the time. No
quarterback in NFL history, across his entire career, has ever
covered that much, which says Jimmy or Check that Cousins
(05:09):
at one o'clock is better against vegas spread than any
quarterback has ever been for his career. Now, if you
look at the flip side non one o'clock starts, he
only covers a third of the time, about thirty three.
And no quarterback of any length of career has ever
been that bad. So Cousins is as good as anyone's
ever been against the Vegas spread at one o'clock and
(05:31):
as bad as anyone's ever been when it's a non
one o'clock start. To me, that's probably worth three or
four points. And I mean we looked at it at
length and said, well, let's be conservative, let's no three
or four points. I don't think you can play Minnesota,
or at least not with my money if it's a
situation where it's not a one o'clock start, So I'm
gonna lean in San France. What's time a starting time
(05:53):
for this game? But this one's four thirty Eastern is
the time though local time, it's it's one thirty alright,
So Ravens minus nine and a half hosting the Titans.
I would take the Ravens here. And here's why. Um,
when you look at franchises that have these kind of
historic wins, and this is arguably the biggest win for
(06:13):
the Titans. It feels like in a decade. I think
it's really hard emotionally to match it. And it wasn't
only a win. It was beating the dynasty. It was Belichick,
Brady Foxboro. I think it's hard to fly back home
and then go all right, emotionally, let's go and not
only match that effort. We'll have to be better this week. Um.
I think Baltimore is their defense is the story as
(06:35):
much as Lamar. But Lamar is so fascinating. He's kind
of taking the oxygen out of the room. I think
this is one of the best defenses currently in the league.
So I'm gonna take Baltimore to to win here by
double digits. What would the wise guys say, a lot
of surprises. I think people were gonna be surprised. I agree.
(06:56):
And here's the thing about double digit favorites is nine
and a half now, so it's right in that range.
In the regular season, it's almost always dog or pass
for me, and the reason being, there's a percentage chance
that the favorite is gonna be a little flat. They're
gonna look past the team just a little bit because hey,
they're double digit favorites. You never look past the team
(07:19):
in the playoffs, so what you get is a clearly
superior team with total focus, and those teams tend to
cover the spread. In fact, double digit favorites eight straight
in the playoffs have covered. Now, again, this is nine
and a half. It's not like we like it better
if it goes to ten. It's just saying this is
that type of game. Also, there's a trend out there.
(07:40):
You'll see different numbers. A team that knocks out the
Super Bowl champion from the playoffs tends to be flat
the next week, they're significantly below five against the spread.
By the way, that's why I've said Clemson over Ohio
State was my College better the year Baltimore over the
Titans is my the one game so far in the playoffs.
I'm gonna take my money and betted on the Ravens.
(08:02):
Your point is mine. This is about emotion. I think
this is a bad spot for Tennessee. I agree, and
and also and this is something I think I don't
think I've heard anyone talk about. I think you got
to hold vary Well accountable for this week seventeen, they
had to win against Houston, locked up, they were in
(08:23):
the playoffs, and they kept feeding the ball to Henry,
fed the ball. He had over thirty carries. Why to
win the rushing title? Now that was it? There was
no other reason. Then he had thirty plus carries against
New England the next week. In his entire career, before
those two games, he had one game with thirty plus carries.
Now he's doing it two in a row, and now
(08:44):
it's a third straight road game. He's if he's not fatigued,
then why aren't backs running thirty plus every game? I mean,
this is the definition of Henry being a little bit,
at minimum a little bit I think compromise. And really,
why why the rushing title? Who's gonna remember that. Uh now,
last thing you mentioned the defense for the Ravens. To me,
(09:06):
it's not just oh, mid season, it was an arbitrary
start time that all of a sudden they started playing well,
no Jimmy Smith when he came back healthwise, and they
got Peters from the Rams. Since then, their defense has
been outstanding. So I love when a trend changes, and
we'll get to that a little bit in Kansas City.
(09:27):
When there's a reason for it, it's not just oh,
it just started. It's like you can clearly say that's
why the Ravens defense got better and really maybe one
of the best seasons we've ever seen against the spread.
And oh, by the way, Ravens first team to enter
the playoffs in a twelve game winning streak since the
undefeated Patriots in two thousand seven. This is a very
(09:47):
good team agreement. Ravens. Weight loss starts with the mind,
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(10:31):
Each episode brings you compelling, real life adoption stories told
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(11:16):
brought to you by the United States Forest Service and
the AD Council. I would bet a little bit on
the Chiefs minus eight and a half. First of all,
it's Andy Reid off of by you and I have
discussed it. Great coaches are often better off buys. There's
five or six coaches who were elite. Hardbaugh, Sean Payton,
Andy Reid, Belichick. First thing. Second that the Texans are
(11:37):
kind of a talented mess um. Once again, they fall
into a deep hole right side of their offensive lines,
not trustable, and you know, Deshaun makes a flag football
play and wins. I think this could get ugly. I
think Kansas City's defense has played great, had a lot
of new faces, and I you know, I was asking
a guest on the show this week, um and I
(11:58):
asked him when you go to a new team, how
long does it take as a player to figure out
the defense? And he said, you know, it's the second
half of the season. You want to be running, not thinking.
So I'm gonna take Kansas City's revamped defense is really
playing now with a great deal of speed over the Texans.
What would the wise guys say, you know, we're all
feeling pretty good as straight out of Vegas that you've
adopted our feelings on Kansas City column. I remember I
(12:21):
am now all in. I remember right here, and it was, hey,
let's get pheasant credit. He was the first in the
country saying hey, when Kansas City was four and oh
what did they have? They had a defense about as
good as last year, and my home's healthy. Then about
four or five games ago, my homes was healthy again,
and the defense was better because it was the first
(12:43):
year with a coordinator. And if all you did college
or pro was take a coordinator, a new one and
fade them the first third of the season, be neutral
the middle third, and be on them the final third,
that's it. Blind, you'd probably win a little tight. You'd
hit like fifty two and a half percent. I think.
So there really is a bias to what you said.
(13:04):
And the irony is the marketplace gets more excited early
because they had the whole offseason to talk about the
new coordinator. Oh, this is gonna change things, and then
when people get disappointed early, they jump off the bandwagon.
I think Kansas City right now, I mean in in
a lot of years, Kansas City would clearly be the
best team in the or in the NFL. It's an example, though,
(13:27):
with Baltimore being so good, you talking about any read
off of bye in his career and five straight up,
nineteen and nine against the spread, so very very very good.
Let's talk and quantify that Kansas City defense. First ten
games they allowed twenty four points a game, last six
only twelve points a game. Now a competition, blah blah blah.
(13:50):
But if you look at the Football Outsiders d v
o A for those six games, the eighth best defense
in the NFL. So if Kansas City truly has the
eighth best defense, they might be better than Baltimore. I
mean that, that's if it ends up being those two
in the five or conference finals. What a game? Last thing?
And I agree with you here by the way, Kansas City,
(14:11):
I like him. Houston was outgained on the season, right,
more yards they were outscored on the season. No team
this century, all right, has made the conference finals in
which they were outgained and outscored. Seven of them made
the division round, oh and seven straight up one in
six against the spread. So you can get so far
(14:32):
being kind of a lucky team. And remember in close
games Houston's nine and three this season. That doesn't maintain.
They would be the first team ever to be outgaining outscored.
That would make the conference finals this century agreement. Kansas
City are guys looked it up this weekend. They also
trailed more than they led this year. Oh the game
control stat that that those are always interesting? Uh finally,
(14:56):
um listen. I think Seattle is now a one dimensional team.
They can't run. I don't think one dimensional teams can
go on the road and beat a team that has
multidimensional assets on offense, green Bay. So I take green
Bay to win. The number at four and a half
is pretty tasty because Seattle here's my thing. If it's close,
I like Seattle to win. I don't know if it
(15:17):
will be. I think green Bay scores early. Seattle will
be playing from behind. They don't have a running game anymore,
so I think green Bay wins four and a half.
I would stay away from this. I think it's gonna
be on the number, but if I had to, I'd
probably go Seattle. What would the wise guys say? Green Bay?
And this is one of those games in which I
(15:40):
had no opinion yesterday And this season I've allowed myself
and you know, hey, it's my twenty second year in Vegas, right,
I mean my late forties. I've done this since I
was fourteen. I keep trying to evolve. And one of
the things this season I'm really happy about is you
just let those games sit out there, don't force an opinion,
you know, on them, and sometimes it just hits you, like,
(16:02):
what what am I miss? How did I miss this?
How did I miss the fact that Green Bay has
maybe the best home field in the NFL? Which I
knew that, So the line of four wouldn't say these
are even teams. Now you might say, okay, well, both
teams were outgained on the season. By the way, this
is only the second time again the century that two
teams in the Division Round are later Matt and both
(16:24):
were out gained on their season, and Seattle was only
outpointed opponents by seven. So I mean, this is like
Houston except they got Russell Wilson. But you might say,
well they still have Russell Wilson. Yeah. Seattle was eleven
and two and one score games including the playoffs. That's
the most in the history of the NFL. Tied with
the two thousand fifteen Broncos of winning one score game.
(16:45):
So they win one more one score game, they'll be
in some ways the luckiest team ever. You might say
Russell Wilson's what's causing that. In his career prior to
this year, Russell Wilson was three games below five hundred
and one score games. So did he just all of
a sudden get great at it. I'm not saying he
hasn't taken a step this year. It's not supposed to
be eleven and two in these games, and if you
(17:08):
just lost even a couple more of them, they might
not have even made the playoffs. So to me, green
Bay is a little overrated. I think Seattle is way overrated.
The line is saying these are even teams because green
Bay's home field so good. I am starting to love
green Bay. If you're looking for the perfect birthday gift
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(17:54):
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(18:16):
Find a forest near you and start exploring it. Discover
the Forest dot org. Brought to you by the United
States Forest Service and the ad Council. By the way,
one more um, I like Clemson plus six Monday Night.
I'll give you my theory on it. You you live
in Vegas and you've gone to Tyson fights. So if
you for the boxers who had never faced Mike Tyson, Um,
(18:38):
there was this The rule on Tyson was get to
the fourth round he tires, But the barrage and the
intensity of his power was so much early it kept
even good fighters on their heels. So Clemson played a
lousy schedule all year, the a CCS easily the worst
conference Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, Hall downs, so they
(19:00):
really hadn't faced a roster, a well coached roster of
NFL athletes until Ohio State. And like Tyson, they were
back on their heels for a little more than a quarter.
But by the middle second quarter on Clemson average seven
point four yards a play Ohio State. All those draft
(19:22):
picks Chase Young could not stop them. No turnovers late uh,
no interceptions, few penalties. They were playing comfortable football. Well,
now they play l s U having played Ohio State,
so they will be a much better team early where
I think a better staff and a better quarterback. I
(19:43):
love Clemson plus six here. What would the wise guys
or you say, Well, here's the first thing I'd say,
is it true? This is a rumor that you have
a big Michael Spins ticket that you know obviously they
in cash in your office. I do not, No, you're
those Tyson fights man, all right, agreement, and I think
(20:05):
you made it a little complicated. I think all you
gotta do in this game is look at what the
projected line was and these weren't projected like oh, let's
put in the newspaper. These were battable lines. So there
were four possible finals, right, So they had all four
matchups on the board before last games, right, the semifinals.
The line in the Clemson L s U was pick them. Now.
(20:28):
What happened in the interim? I agree, I think you
maybe even you might downgrade Clemson a little bit off
that win. I mean, it was kind of like but
still they were at worst it was, and they were
right in there with a High State and they won.
So congrats, and let's be candid. L s U looked
as good as any team can look, So upgrade then
maybe two points. And Brad Powers, who does our power ratings,
(20:49):
and he's done our this show numerous times, he's had
a situation where he says, all right, let's give L
s U two points. That's about as much as you
can upgrade a team this late in the year. And
let's say he actually down graded Clemson one off the
High State win, which seems counterintuitive, but Vegas is saying,
what do we know about this team? Now? We didn't
know before, and he didn't he wasn't all that impressed
with Clemson. Still, this line should be less than three.
(21:12):
So six is just the public has gotten so excited
the Heisman winner. They're blowing everybody out. I think this
line keeps going up. And one of the great important
things you need to do is a batter is decide
when the bat. So if you're listening on Saturday morning,
my advice, we never know for sure. You might be
able to get a six and a half or even
a seven. Now there's a chance you might lose points,
(21:34):
so you've got to make a calculated risk. But this
is pure value Clemson. R J Bell Pregame dot Com. Uh,
have a great weekend. We'll talk in a couple of weeks.
We'll talk soon. We'll talk before the super Bowl, will
do a show, and the next week we'll do a show.
So we have a few more his Twitter handle. As
(21:55):
always be careful that social media. Kids. It's a very
very toxic out there at r J in Vegas and
a show is Straight out of Vegas six to seven
Eastern on Fox Sports Radio. It's through the roof this year,
the podcast, the ratings through the Roof. Have a good weekend,
r J. Thank you. When others treat your fries as
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based on a national taste test by Independent Research Economy.
What girls in the forest, our imagination and our family bonds.
The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest
near you and discover the fourth dot Org brought to
you by the United States for Service and the ad Council.
Adoption of teams from foster care is a topic on
(23:00):
enough people know about, and we're here to change that.
I'm April Dinuity, host of the new podcast Navigating Adoption,
presented by adopt us Kids. Each episode brings you compelling,
real life adoption stories told by the families that lived
them with commentary from experts. Visit adopt us kids dot org,
slash podcast, or subscribe to Navigating Adoption, presented by adopt
(23:20):
us Kids, brought to you by the U. S. Department
of Health, that Human Services, Administration for Children and Families,
and the ACT Council
Hosts And Creators
Rich Davis
Steve Covino
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