July 24, 2020 • 39 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas, RJ Bell and the crew have mixed feeling over the lack of fans in the stands on MLB Opening Day. RJ loves the expanded playoffs in MLB because of a shortened season but hates the first round being a 3-game series. The guys debate whether or not there will be an asterisk on the World Series winner this season and RJ explains how the Blue Jays will be tired out by playing in Buffalo. All that plus some Best Bets from Fezzik and RJ Bell.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Don't listening to Fox Sports Rago. This is Straight out
of Vegas with the Voice of Vegas, your host, r
J bow Collection, the pregame show America has always wanted
(00:40):
from the Vegas Trip Ear's r J Bow You heard it.
I'm RJ Live on a Friday, Live from Las Vegas
and live on two hundred and twenty five FSR stations
across this great, great nation. Playball, Baby, play Ball booked
(01:03):
a winner, I mean first game winner, r J Bell,
No big deal, just the way I do. But yeah,
we had a lot of lumber we laid there. But
still when you win him that easy, you just gotta smile.
We got a full house today, I mean, this is
like wowsa. We got Phasik who, by the way, speaking
(01:25):
of winners, he's on a documented in front of the
world tenant oh streak on best bets. Now he hasn't
had any for months, so that's has been the best
longest streak he's ever had. But it's still tend to know.
I wonder if we'll get a game tonight perhaps. Also
(01:46):
host of the weekend edition of Straight out of Vegas,
Bernie Fratto, who's a baseball aficionado, is in the house
and always he's not a pro, but he's my favorite.
Joe in l a on his knocks. Always good to
be here, r J. And yes, on a day in
which we get good news out of the NFL, we're
(02:06):
now officially less than a week away from the start
of the NBA season. What is the Vegas lead here
on this Friday, you know, first time in months. Let's
recap yesterday's action. I think there's a lot of telling
elements from the baseball games. Yeah, and we talked about
the Dodgers and the Yankees being the heavy favorites to
win the World Series over the past couple of days
(02:28):
here on straight out of Vegas. They opened up yesterday,
and they opened up the season last night, both of
them in the wind column, no doubt about it. So
let's recap some of the original research we've done pregame
dot com. One. This is the Yankees and Dodgers, the
biggest combination of favorites number one and number two in
(02:50):
a decade in baseball, alright, one, number two and this
one we talked about yesterday first time. And this is
a wow. If you go back those ten years and
say how many teams were single digit favorites. So nine
to one, eight to one, seven to one, all right,
(03:12):
not ten to one or more teams in the last
ten seasons entered the season as a single digit favor
World Series winners zero oh for eight in a decade
just goes to show you baseball is not a chalk
sport typically, But man, you got chalk like crazy with
(03:37):
the Yankees and Dodgers, like we said, as much as
in a decade for number one and number two. So
Steve Fezik, let's just go with professional batter back in
the game. What was your main takeaway from last night?
You know, just watching the game, r J. I did
not miss the fans. I thought that the game flowed
(03:58):
pretty much as any MLB game would flow. They did
pipe in some crowd noise which helped after the plays,
and there was cutouts a player of fans behind the
stadiums and Dodger stadium. It looked like as normal as
it could be. Jonas, you're the kind of guy that
knows this. I'm hoping why weren't they playing any You
(04:19):
have any sense of why there was no noise like
when they're typically, is I anticipation of here comes the
pitch or why it was just in reaction. I don't
that I don't know, but I was not impressed at
all with the product that was put on place last night.
I just thought it was lame. I just thought, no
(04:39):
fans and then cardboard cutouts and they show the back
of the cardboard cutouts. It just felt a little bit corny,
a little bit cheeseball for me. All right, now, let's
be clear, because if I was listening, I think I
might mistake what I think you're saying. And here's what
I think you're saying. And let's make sure you're not
saying the other one, because if you are, hey, that's
fine too. We just want to be sure are you
saying you'd rather than not be games or you're saying
(05:04):
given the limitations the way they've attempted to handle those
is with lane. I was excited about there being games,
but I was disappointed in what I was watching the
not not so much the actual baseball, but just the environment.
I didn't think fans are going to make as much
of a difference for me personally and watching it as
they actually ended up doing. I mean, this is exactly
(05:26):
the difference between Steve Physick and a normal human being
your physics thinking, Hey, I won money last night. It
all's good. I didn't miss anything. And then but Jonas,
who is the voice of the fans as a fan,
a little disappointed. Jonas, just from Twitter, social media feedback,
(05:47):
people you've talked to, what do you think? The consensus
opinion is just happy to have it back, Just happy
to once again the cynic. I mean, listen, somebody's got
to do it. It's a weird coumbination because you're one
of the nicest guys, but you're a cynic. Usually cynics
are a whole. It's a weird thing. Speaking of Oh no,
(06:08):
Bernie Fratto, what was your takeaway? Well, it's baseball between
the line six six inches, but the some of the
accouter mons like fans, crowd noise and the other things.
It was a bit of an odd visual that we
have to get used to. Now. Our producer Hollywood Matt
made a very interesting point. So apparently there is a
(06:31):
potential product that's on the cusp of coming out, or
maybe it's gonna be out soon. Uh, in a different
you know, different teams. Perhaps that didn't play last night.
But Jonas, I don't know if you've heard about this.
Whereas fans at home are gonna be able to in
a way vote from an app on what noise is
being made by the fans at a given game. So
(06:55):
you're not at the game, but if you're a Dodgers fan,
you log in and you could say boo boo boo,
you could say, you know, cheer, cheer, cheer, and in
theory that there'd be an algorithm that would then generate
the noise. That seems cool. I mean, what are we
doing here? I mean, think about it, though, control boats,
(07:16):
What are we doing here? Listen, Mr pessimists, think about
this for a second. Now. Is imagine that it's not
just the seventy thousand or whatever in Seattle that's dictating
for the football game how loud the noise is gonna be.
But it becomes something a couple of years from now
that all fans are able to log in and thus
(07:37):
be hitting the cheer, hitting the boom, and based on
the numbers, the amount of loudness created at the stadium
would be correlated. So if you don't have, like if
you're like the Tampa Bay Rays, you don't have a
lot of fans, maybe you're gonna hear ay, but then
if you're like the Dodgers, the other team's gotta hit,
(07:58):
it's gonna be boom. That sounds cool, Come on, passimist that.
I just I want to see what Foxes digital fans
are gonna look like, because that's allegedly what's coming out
on Saturday tomorrow, is that they're going to have digital
fans and attendance. And I've seen a couple of the
samples and I think it's much better than what we
saw last night. I'm r J. Bell. We're straight out
(08:20):
of Vegas. I take the world as I find it.
Jonas Knox, he's in some utopia in his own mind.
Your poor wife, oh Man, all right, let me ask
you this, Fez. You weren't here yesterday because you need
a lot of rest, you know, as you're getting up
there a little bit. But what was your takeaway on
(08:40):
the playoffs itself? Because we had heard, you know, there
was reports it was possible there'd be a late deal, man,
oh Man, from ten to sixteen teams at the last minute.
What's your thoughts. I think there's too much luck in
baseball this year, are j We already have a shortened season,
only sixty games, and now we're gonna have sixteen teams
(09:03):
make the playoffs with the best two out of three
to lead. WOWSA. We could get a really really good
team knocked out in the first round of these playoffs
and for you that because it wouldn't be quote unquote fair.
And I'm saying that not sarcastically. That's what you have
trouble with I do, all right, So we talked about
(09:24):
this yesterday. The amount of luck is a key consideration
for any game, any competition. If you have no luck,
that means the best team always wins. It's boring. If
you have too much luck, skill is disconnected from who wins.
That's bad to me. This feels like that. The decision
(09:46):
to increase the number of playoff teams I like. I
don't like the execution. The reason I like the sixteen
instead of ten is with only sixty games you can
make the case. And I think it's object of lye
true that your ability for the season to ascertain who
deserves to be in the playoffs to determine that is flawed.
(10:09):
It's limited. It's not as good as one sixty two.
So what do you need margin for air? What is
that margin? Extra teams in the playoffs makes sense, But
the idea that you have a three game playoff everyone's fake.
You can go one sixty two and oh and have
to play three games and if you lose two out
(10:30):
of three, you're done. That. I hate so and and
that's what I don't get for a sport that has
unlimited games. It seems like, why not just make it
a five game series in the first round, as a
seven game series the last three I don't understand. I'm
(10:51):
not sure why not make it seven for all rounds?
But we're gonna talk about. In fact, let's do this
because this is fascinating. Physick did the math, So up next,
FeSi did the math and saying, now that the Dodgers
and Yankees, likely the two best teams, are going to
have to play a first round playoff series, how does
(11:14):
that affect their chances? We've got the odds update, but
we got the actual math on the way it should go.
That's coming up next. But first, Straight out of Vegas
is brought to you by auto Zone. Auto Zone as
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(11:37):
Auto Zone. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox, and
this is the pregame show You've always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio, Vegan. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm
Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
I Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell, we are
(11:58):
Straight out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Ox, Voice of
You the Fan. Coming up in just a couple of moments,
we will continue to take a look at the start
of the MLB season. Great Day to join us Bernie
Frado from the weekend show that's Saturday's eleven Pacific to midnight.
It's a one of a kind. I think it's fair
to say. He joins along with Feazic Great Day. This
(12:20):
is the fastest grown show on Fox Sports Radio. Audiences
doubled in the last year. Thank you so much for that,
and we promise best football season yet personally for me.
Starting Monday, literally thirty two straight shows, one team each,
counting down from thirty two to one, with the number
(12:42):
one being the day before kickoff will be the Chiefs.
A laud of anticipation about that. Fez and I will
be betting each other too. Not good for Fez. I'll
just say in general history, if history is any indication
once your grief, AZ, Yeah, I'll bring my checkbook and
you can. You can I cash please. You can listen
(13:04):
on podcast. Just search for r J Belt or Straight
out of Vegas on your favorite player and catch up
during this weekend. Great shows this week right now in
Vegas on the strip two degrees. Neon is pumping, so
r J is. We discussed over the course of the
week the World Series favorites on the eve of the
start of the Major League Baseball season are the Dodgers
(13:26):
and the Yankees. The Dodgers and the Yankees got wins
on Thursday night, and it opens up a full slate
of games not only tonight but all throughout the course
of the weekend. Okay, so we're debating this playoffs how
good it is? Is it good? Is it bad? What
we know for sure? And I said, hand held high.
I said, this hurts the Yankees big time. This hurts
(13:49):
the Dodgers big time. The odds have moved, but not
as much as you might think. So a couple of
days ago, Dodgers Yankees were plus three eight, so that
means hundred wins, you three eighty if either you know,
on each of them individually if they win, and that's
a little less than four to one big favorites, biggest
(14:10):
number one and two. In ten years it went up
to plus four hundred for the Dodgers, So just a
smidge of a downgrade. Effectively, Yankees, though, have gone to
plus four thirty. And you might say, r J, you
were right. Lines moved, yeah, but not near as much
(14:31):
as they should move. As you did the math on
this back and napkin, it looks right to me. So Yankees.
That's used for an example. If you take out the
big effectively the odds tew us seventeen percent chance before
this change, before seventeen percent chance to win the World Series,
(14:51):
you think there's a four percent chance for them, meaning
that of all their chances, you've got a decrease it
by four percent because of the likely extra first round
playoffs series best of three. Now there's a chance the
Yankees would have not gotta buy or whatever. But let's
be honest, they very likely to. So you believe the
(15:13):
odds should have went from plus four, let's say on
the Yankees, to what because of the playoffs? Plus five?
R J. Wow, So that feels right to me. And
think about that if you're a Yankees fan, if you're
a Dodgers fan, seventeen percent chance we would have estimated
(15:33):
two days ago to win the World Series, and now
it's down almost. I mean you think about it, seventeen
four times four sixteen, so a quarter of that would
go to twelve. It's a little less, but you're taking
like almost a quarter of your World Series chances and
throwing them away. You might say, but r J, that's
(15:54):
gonna be an easier series. Yeah, but it's just best
of three. And the alternative was a bye, right, which
is I think a don't calculator and not just to buy.
But remember then the next round you could well have
gotten a team that just had to play in the
wild card round and they had to burn their best
starter as well. That is a great point, Steve Fazick,
(16:16):
good stuff there. I'm r J. Bell. We're straight out
of Vegas, Bernie. What's your thoughts on the playoffs themselves?
Are J. I think it creates a much more daunting
gauntlet for the good teams like the Dodgers. They've got
an additional layer to navigate through. And in a short
three game series, as you alluded to earlier, look, you
could run into the hot goalie syndrome you have in
(16:37):
hockey with a hot picture. Bob Yucker was a terrible hitter, right,
but for some reason he bad off Sandy Kofax. So
I think it makes it more difficult for the favorites. RJ. Jonas.
When's the last time you heard of Sandy Kofax, guy?
I mean he was on the Brady Bunch. I think
that one time? I remember, right? Was it without Hammered
or Drysdale? Anyone remember? For your time? That's Bernie Fretto.
(17:05):
Now did you now Bernie? And and again you don't
have to share with this, but how was Babe Ruth
as a person? Like when you covered him? I thought
he had pretty good power and he actually pitched well too,
yes and yeah? And did you did you vote for FDR?
I waited in line and voted for Thomas Dewey and
(17:27):
then I found out afterward that, uh yeah, you said
up laying the chalk. You're laying the che all right.
So Fez, if you look at last night, I know
you said with the fans and everything, you know you
were fine because you cash. But was there something about
the Dodge or something about the Yankees? I mean, in general,
it feels like a clean win by both teams, or
(17:49):
at least a four to one and eight to one
type win just reaffirms the idea that, oh, these are
the dominant teams. Do you think that's what's driving them?
Any line not moving as much in the World Series odds?
What do you think it is. I think that's certainly
a good part of it. That Remember there's only two games,
both on national TV. Everyone watched them. Were so starved
(18:10):
for sports and frankly watching the Dodgers play, and they
were all hustle mookie bets, taking extra bass and the like.
There was a lot to like about the Dodger effort
level last night. We're talking about last night's baseball and
the ramifications of the playoff expansion. Now, jan is this
one you're gonna love? You're gonna love this. So there
(18:32):
was a prop a proposition bat all around, which was
would any picture, any picture, have more than one complete
game during the regular season, so the over under was
one and a half. Right, So, literally, because of the
rules around the rain out that happened in the Yankees game,
(18:55):
both pictures gut credit for a complete game. So now
literally the first game in the books has two complete games,
so one each. They still need one more. But they
thought the entire sixty games that it was fifty or
so that anyone would get to. And now is that
(19:16):
something that every sports book is gonna pay out or
they're gonna be some that are gonna be a little
bit more difficult about that. Well, you know, I don't
know if you've heard about these cockroaches we're looking. We
haven't seen yet. Listen, to some degree, you just got
to go by the rules. Now, if you're an offshore
book your barroom bookie, there are no rules, right, and
that's the downside of that. So but in general, it
(19:37):
feels like this is when they're gonna have trouble cock
roach in their way out of Now here's my thought.
And I'm not a cynic, but I'm a guy that
I like to I smell, I follow the money, like
they said in Watergate, And it strikes me that this
Yankees game. The fact that got reined out, it felt
(19:59):
a little quick. I know it was coming down hard, Bernie,
What did you think it was? Like a normal season,
they would have called the game so soon. No, I
don't rg uh. Let's take a look at this quickly.
Because the game was called after an hour and fifty
eight minute randelays. And since there's no time limit in baseball,
it's in an umpire's discretion to call a game only
(20:22):
when he thinks the field is no longer playable or
they have a chance. I'm not finishing it, but there's
no time limit. Back in two thousand and thirteen, Cleveland
and Tampa Bay had a five hour randlay. So last night,
why did they call it after an hour and fifty
eight Because in the cod season things are a little different.
Players don't kill time during randolays like they used to.
Having been in a lot of clubhouses, there's a lot
(20:43):
of creature comforts like car tables, couches, sofa's chairs, all
of those have been removed. So they were having issues
spacing with social distancing last night. They wanted to get
the players out to a safer environment. They called the
games sooner than they would have, plus the fact there
were no fans in this day to your point, yes,
r J, they called it sooner than they would have.
(21:03):
That's Bernie Fratto. Last question, was the dead Ball era
really as boring as it seems reading about it? You know,
I like like a lot. All right, that's already everyone,
I listen if this kind of you know, let's be candy.
You don't hear this perspective anymore. Now some kids might
be saying, yeah, I hear it, you know with my
(21:25):
grandpa fair enough, I like it because, let's be candid,
the world's changing fast eleven o'clock Pacific, straight out of
Vegas weekend. It's like it was back in the dead
Ball area in a way. Bernie Fratto, thank you so much,
no doubt. All right, So Fez, let me ask you this.
(21:48):
I guess my question is do you call into question.
We talked about asterisks and the idea that you know,
will this be a legit title? Whoever wins when this
stuff adds up, you go to sixteen teams on you know,
seemingly a whim at the end, right to the last minute,
you potentially are calling games early. I'm not I don't
(22:11):
want to be a cinic in general. I'm not sure
if there's any other way to do it, But to
what degreed does each of these little decisions in your
mind invalidate the eventual winner. And I'm gonna ask Jonas
the same question after. I actually think we should put
an asterisk by it. R J think about all these
other sports, and the NBA people are like, should there
(22:31):
be an asterisk? They only playing eighty eight percent of
the games they were supposed to play, and now we're
only playing thirty seven percent, and now we're having teams
potentially make the playoffs with losing records. It's just too
much for me. Jonas, I think that there is going
to be the people that have the asterisk next to it.
I'm gonna consider it a legitimate World Series. I'm gonna
consider whoever wins it a legitimate World Series champion. But
(22:54):
it's the perfect season because if you really want to
piss off a certain fan base, you can go in
the other direction and not give them credit for it,
and they can't really spec back because there is legitimacy
to the fact. As Fez pointed out, you're playing so
few games that it almost it doesn't even qualify in
a lot of way, like you wouldn't even consider this.
(23:14):
I wonder how many games a rookie would have to
play to qualify for a Rookie of the Year award
for or to a crew a year, right, which, yeah,
and so it's such a limited number of games that
it's really hard to to take it serious. And I
wonder how many players are actually taking it serious because
they had to come back kicking and screaming to try
and get a season in at all. That's shown stocks
(23:36):
were straight out of Vegas, Fez. I know there's an
answer to this, I just don't know quite what it is.
It seems obvious. Why is sixty games less legitimate than
sixteen games in the NFL? Because of baseball major favorite
(23:56):
at most is like minus four r J, so has
a little less chance to win. Contrast that with like
the NFL, where when a team is a seventeen point
favorite at best against the worst, it is so rare,
you know, less much less than ten percent on a second.
So if you're saying that there are some games that
don't even matter of the sixteen because there's almost a
(24:18):
sure winner, how does that make the idea that sixty
games that matter, are less important than sixteen games, and
some don't matter because over course of sixty minutes in
an NFL game, a really good team is going to
win the game. And that's just not the case over
a nine inning baseball game. Okay, so, but what you're
saying is that you don't need a game. I mean,
(24:42):
and first off, what percentage of games are outside that range?
I mean, a vast majority of baseball games are gonna
be minus two d majority. I don't know vast, but
minus two hundred or less. So the underdog is gonna
win about a third of the time, and most NFL
games gonna be the same. They're competitive, and it's not
(25:03):
by a factor of five, right I really I get
the whole idea that you can't um play sixty football games.
So I'm not saying they should. But what I'm saying
is I agree there is You could make the case
there's more luck in baseball, though if you add an
(25:23):
interceptions and stuff. What's the biggest play that can happen
in baseball? How much does that hurt the team that
got unlucky versus a turnover? One turnover, they cover the
spread that team plus one or more of the time,
just one play. I don't fully understand it. I know
I'm supposed to, Jonas, Do you I mean instinctually, do
(25:46):
you have a reason why that you feel that way?
You mean that the NFL has sixteen games and it's
considered more legit than a sixty game. I just think
that it's because we're getting a full sixteen game season.
So it's all X, it's all based on history comparison. Yeah,
But objectively now it seems like that the mathematical answer
(26:10):
is going to have some variation where that the game.
The only answer could be right that the baseball games
are less indicative. Thus you need more games that taw
who's truly good? But could you need it by a
factor of sixty verses sixteen? Yeah? I don't. I think
(26:31):
I think we're just so used to the one sixty
two that that people have a hard time kind of
getting off of that. And and we talked about it yesterday.
Why not have less regular season games and more postseason games?
If you really wanted to get the true answer of
who the best team is, put them in high pressure
situations more often, or put more teams in high pressure
situations as opposed to the hundred sixty two games in
(26:54):
the season, which I would be totally on board with,
but I felt when we kept hearing the number of
games go lower and lower. Once we got below eighty games,
I sort of took a step back and said, this
is not going to be a really I guess just
seeing the season, that's going to be looked at favorably
(27:15):
by a lot of people. And and the question is
is that legitimate? Is the lack of legitimacy legitimate? Fez?
I mean, as you're pondering this is anything popping in
your head. I just think in baseball games so often
to get situations bases loaded, one out, r J hard
ground ball, it's either a double play, no runs, or
just just just like there's a field goal to win
(27:37):
or lose the game. I'm saying these were three runs,
are J. It's like worth like that team it's only
supposed to score four and if runs the entire game
and one play, you have a swing of three runs.
On listen, no one is questioning that there's more. But
here's the thing, though, every playing baseball is warranted where
(27:58):
you could say, well because of the position that they
had where they are, you know, shading one way or
shade the other or whatever, that all that grounder would
have gotten through if it would have been Yeah. Maybe,
But in general, there's more luck, at least on a
per play basis. And what I mean is this, In football,
(28:20):
you might make the case that any given play is
not as big as it is one playing baseball, But
what do you say when there's a fumble on the ground.
There's nothing in all the sports. It's more of a
fifty fifty coin flip than a fumble on the ground.
You agree with that, right, Okay, And a fumble is
(28:40):
gigantic when it comes to one. Turnover is gigantic when
it comes to who's gonna win the game? Yeah, And
but still it's if I'm supposed to score points. I
conceded that point a right. So what I'm saying is
the only rationale is there's a couple of situations in
a given baseball game in which if it goes one way,
(29:01):
it's zero runs, if it goes the other, it's three runs.
And three runs is such a big chunk of the
overall scoring expected that there's more luck there. Okay, I'm
not sure I agree, but I think I do, all right,
I think I do. But let's double the number of
games thirty two verses sixteen. Oh, let's just add another sixteen.
And still it's not enough. Let's add another twelve. Not
(29:24):
stone on enough? What would you guys rather have less
innings in a game or less games in a season?
I'd much rather have the full endings? And yeah, all right,
last thing on baseball, I'm r J. Bow straight out
of Vegas. Blue Jay's in Buffalo. Sounds like like an
indie movie with a very low budget. Fez betting style.
(29:51):
What he thought about that and said, all right, that's
good betting style, Fez. What's your takeaway? Well, it's still
a big negative for the Blue Jays is having to
play in their Triple A Buffalo stadium. Still big negative
compared to what compared to them playing in Toronto. You do, yeah,
(30:11):
but you're saying it's still a big negative. So still
compared to what compared to it looked like for a
while they were gonna be playing all sixty games on
the road, as you were in Fantasy fazz World with
that one, No, Joe, as you read as much as
anyone I know on sports, what I would always read
is that Buffalo was the last resort, and you know,
(30:34):
because they didn't want it, but they weren't going to
play all sixty on the road. There were three locations
that were talked about the most. It was done Edin, Florida, Buffalo,
and Pittsburgh. And it looked like Pittsburgh was gonna get it,
and then they shot that down earlier in the week,
and so Buffalo, I guess, was really the only option
they had left. Yeah, but Fas somehow in his mind
things I'll have a really good answer on the show.
(30:57):
If they were playing all the road games, I'll be like,
r J, that's bad. That's bad for the Blue Jays.
I mean, where did you read where did you read
that it was even like like like more than a
long shot that they were gonna play you know, have
no you know, literally just have every game be you know,
effectively at the other team's park. I did read an article.
I don't have it in front of me in terms
(31:18):
of the reference ERG, but it was not almost saying
it wasn't a possibility, but it was it was a
long shot. You're correct, But but it's the only thing
you've talked in prep. You talked about it for twenty minutes. Well,
they'll be playing in Buffalo. They won't be playing an
opening day though, because they've got upgrade the lights, the
clubhouse and facilities. It looks like in early August they'll
be playing their home games in Buffalo. So here's the adjustment.
(31:40):
The over underwin totals just sixty games only, but sixty
and the win total. Before they felt like this was
gonna be a big problem. It wasn't that long ago
they were gonna play in Toronto. Was the thought. Twenty
seven and a half wins out of sixty games was expected.
The bet down has been modest, one game down to
(32:00):
twenty six and a half. Fez not enough? Is it
not enough? I still like the under twenty six and
a half. So you actually, well yeah, because well, I
guess they could have played all the games on the road,
but you gave this out and now you're reinforcing it.
If you can get twenty six and a half, you
like und under Toronto? I do, okay. And the last
(32:22):
thing I would say is this, I think that the
negative for Toronto is that right now and at the
end of the year, because I think now it's a
big psychological distraction. I think they're gonna be fine with
it for a while, but then it's just gonna be
an accumulation of time away from home and the strain,
and I think this is gonna be a fatigued Blue
(32:43):
Jay's team at the end of the year. Jamal Adams
talking again. Be sure to catch live editions of Straight
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm
Pacific Straight out of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio.
You can always check out the show on the I
Heart Radio app. I'm Jonas Knocks Voice of You the Fan.
He is the Voice of Vegas r J bel Do
(33:04):
you see that, Mike Control. I mean, that was pretty good, Jonas,
wasn't it. He's a broadcast professional. Oh my gosh, I
gotta learn something from these guys. All right, I'm not
gonna give Adams too much time. Obviously, Squeaky Wheel gets oiled.
He wants to a big old contract or, he wants
out in the Jets, and he's just gonna jibber and
he's gonna jabber. And this is what we've wrought in
(33:30):
this player empowerment era. It feels like there's been no
limits in a way. And if you look at Jacksonville,
and they've got cornerback saying I don't like it here, Okay,
trade me for two first round picks. Now he's gonna
get a jumbo contract. You're telling the players this is
the way to do it. So I don't blame him.
I just hope that the Jets don't cave because it
(33:51):
won't stop if they do. And it's not as if
they're not. The guy's not He's under a league mandated contract.
It's not like the Jets underpaid him or anything. All Right,
when we come back up next and I'm telling you
something this is true, you might be skeptical. We've got
a baseball trend you can play tonight. That's a D
(34:14):
eighteen winners and losers D eighteen and that's coming up next.
But first, straight out of Vegas is brought to you
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(34:38):
r J. Bel I'm Jonas Knocks. This is the pregame
show you've always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app.
Search f s R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell,
(34:59):
Were straight out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks voice
of you the fans. So r J Baseball is back.
We've got a full slate of games, not only tonight
but all throughout the rest of the weekend. And you,
the Voice of Vegas, have a trend. Yes I do.
But you know I'm gonna leaf Fast because he gets
nervous if he gets near the end of the segment.
So here's what we know about Fast. He won two
(35:22):
super contacts, only guy ever to do that. That's amazing.
He also has won ten straight free picks on here. Now,
what do you think, Jonas? You know Fats at this point.
Do you think he'll make a pick now that you
can he could possibly lose tonight or is he going
to make a pick on some future event? What do
you He'll lean on something he won't like it. Steve
(35:43):
Azek W N B A R. J Seattle to win
the w NBA the future plus four fifty. So when
does this? When does this settle October continue? Seattle should
return to championship form the storm one at all in
(36:05):
two thousand and eighteen. What happened last year when they
were barely above five, Well, their m v P Brianna
start was out all year long and that's why Seattle
fell to eighteen and sixteen. Brianna starts back. Seattle should
absolutely return to that championship level play. And let's look
at their competition. All of the other contenders in the
w n B A are way down this year with
(36:26):
key injuries. Washington, Las Vegas, Connecticut are all hurting this year.
The pick of Seattle to win the w n B
A r J plus four fifty. No, listen, he would
never take a four and a half to one dog
if he had a street going if it. He just
knows there's no chance he's gonna be undefeated all the
way through October. It's what's going on. I will say this,
Jona is and for everyone out there, literally Fez three
(36:51):
years now, he's been doing the w n B A
at pregame dot com. He's just killing it. I mean,
it's like almost what was it six, Steve, it is
it is, I mean, unbelievable. But I do have a
trend and this baby. Let's give Bernie Frido credit. He
does the weekend show eleven o'clock Pacific straight out of
Vegas Weekend on Saturday nights. And he came in and said,
(37:16):
big or favorites, clear favorites in game one of Baseball
do great. It was a D eighteen and forty six.
So we went into the database, confirmed that that looks
mighty good. That's amazing. But then I had a feeling.
I said, you know, I wonder how the big, big
favorites do versus the smaller favorites, because it's hard to
(37:36):
win with big, big baseball favorites. Lo and behold, minus
two above really didn't have any great value. So here
is the trend with updated amazing numbers, and I got
my favorite pick on it tonight. It's gonna be the
best bat. The trend is this first game for the team,
they're favored by minus one or more up to minus
(38:03):
two or above, so a clear favor but not a
gigantic favor. You go back fifteen years, these teams Jonas
are one oh four and forty one, four winners forty losers,
and the logic is there. The logic is favorites that
are motivated do a lot better than regular favorites because
(38:26):
oftentimes underdogs have value because the favorites are not motivated.
You see this in the NFL playoffs. The favorites do
a great job because they might be laying nine points,
but they are so focused. Well, first game of the year,
these teams are focused, and there's three games left to
meet this criteria. San Diego Padres tonight. St. Louis Cardinals tonight.
(38:50):
And then here's my best bet. The Oakland A's. Oakland
A's minus one forty falls into this category. And that's
like an r oh. I. I mean, this is like
r oh I. This isn't just a I mean, this
is amazing. One oh four and forty. Be careful, there's
no Shore winners. By the way, Dave Assler, one of
our pros, also liked Oakland That double shot is why
(39:14):
I made it my best bet. And they're also used
to not really playing in front of a lot of
fans anyways, so exactly that in Tampa Bay, you can
say that about absolutely so yeah, it does makes some sense. Um,
and so that will make you too and know on
the season to start the year, that's a yesterday. I mean, listen,
we laid the lumber, but we did. You see what
the line did though, Jonas, The line went up like
(39:35):
thirty cents right after I gave it out. Coincidence? Maybe
it is the odd couple coming up next year on
many of these Fox Sports Radio affiliates. If you missed
any of today's show, including a best bet and a trend,
you can check out the podcast at Fox sports radio
dot com. We're back on Monday, six pm Eastern Time,
right here on Fox Sports Radio
Don't listening to Fox Sports Rago. This is Straight out
of Vegas with the Voice of Vegas, your host, r
J bow Collection, the pregame show America has always wanted
(00:40):
from the Vegas Trip Ear's r J Bow You heard it.
I'm RJ Live on a Friday, Live from Las Vegas
and live on two hundred and twenty five FSR stations
across this great, great nation. Playball, Baby, play Ball booked
(01:03):
a winner, I mean first game winner, r J Bell,
No big deal, just the way I do. But yeah,
we had a lot of lumber we laid there. But
still when you win him that easy, you just gotta smile.
We got a full house today, I mean, this is
like wowsa. We got Phasik who, by the way, speaking
(01:25):
of winners, he's on a documented in front of the
world tenant oh streak on best bets. Now he hasn't
had any for months, so that's has been the best
longest streak he's ever had. But it's still tend to know.
I wonder if we'll get a game tonight perhaps. Also
(01:46):
host of the weekend edition of Straight out of Vegas,
Bernie Fratto, who's a baseball aficionado, is in the house
and always he's not a pro, but he's my favorite.
Joe in l a on his knocks. Always good to
be here, r J. And yes, on a day in
which we get good news out of the NFL, we're
(02:06):
now officially less than a week away from the start
of the NBA season. What is the Vegas lead here
on this Friday, you know, first time in months. Let's
recap yesterday's action. I think there's a lot of telling
elements from the baseball games. Yeah, and we talked about
the Dodgers and the Yankees being the heavy favorites to
win the World Series over the past couple of days
(02:28):
here on straight out of Vegas. They opened up yesterday,
and they opened up the season last night, both of
them in the wind column, no doubt about it. So
let's recap some of the original research we've done pregame
dot com. One. This is the Yankees and Dodgers, the
biggest combination of favorites number one and number two in
(02:50):
a decade in baseball, alright, one, number two and this
one we talked about yesterday first time. And this is
a wow. If you go back those ten years and
say how many teams were single digit favorites. So nine
to one, eight to one, seven to one, all right,
(03:12):
not ten to one or more teams in the last
ten seasons entered the season as a single digit favor
World Series winners zero oh for eight in a decade
just goes to show you baseball is not a chalk
sport typically, But man, you got chalk like crazy with
(03:37):
the Yankees and Dodgers, like we said, as much as
in a decade for number one and number two. So
Steve Fezik, let's just go with professional batter back in
the game. What was your main takeaway from last night?
You know, just watching the game, r J. I did
not miss the fans. I thought that the game flowed
(03:58):
pretty much as any MLB game would flow. They did
pipe in some crowd noise which helped after the plays,
and there was cutouts a player of fans behind the
stadiums and Dodger stadium. It looked like as normal as
it could be. Jonas, you're the kind of guy that
knows this. I'm hoping why weren't they playing any You
(04:19):
have any sense of why there was no noise like
when they're typically, is I anticipation of here comes the
pitch or why it was just in reaction. I don't
that I don't know, but I was not impressed at
all with the product that was put on place last night.
I just thought it was lame. I just thought, no
(04:39):
fans and then cardboard cutouts and they show the back
of the cardboard cutouts. It just felt a little bit corny,
a little bit cheeseball for me. All right, now, let's
be clear, because if I was listening, I think I
might mistake what I think you're saying. And here's what
I think you're saying. And let's make sure you're not
saying the other one, because if you are, hey, that's
fine too. We just want to be sure are you
saying you'd rather than not be games or you're saying
(05:04):
given the limitations the way they've attempted to handle those
is with lane. I was excited about there being games,
but I was disappointed in what I was watching the
not not so much the actual baseball, but just the environment.
I didn't think fans are going to make as much
of a difference for me personally and watching it as
they actually ended up doing. I mean, this is exactly
(05:26):
the difference between Steve Physick and a normal human being
your physics thinking, Hey, I won money last night. It
all's good. I didn't miss anything. And then but Jonas,
who is the voice of the fans as a fan,
a little disappointed. Jonas, just from Twitter, social media feedback,
(05:47):
people you've talked to, what do you think? The consensus
opinion is just happy to have it back, Just happy
to once again the cynic. I mean, listen, somebody's got
to do it. It's a weird coumbination because you're one
of the nicest guys, but you're a cynic. Usually cynics
are a whole. It's a weird thing. Speaking of Oh no,
(06:08):
Bernie Fratto, what was your takeaway? Well, it's baseball between
the line six six inches, but the some of the
accouter mons like fans, crowd noise and the other things.
It was a bit of an odd visual that we
have to get used to. Now. Our producer Hollywood Matt
made a very interesting point. So apparently there is a
(06:31):
potential product that's on the cusp of coming out, or
maybe it's gonna be out soon. Uh, in a different
you know, different teams. Perhaps that didn't play last night.
But Jonas, I don't know if you've heard about this.
Whereas fans at home are gonna be able to in
a way vote from an app on what noise is
being made by the fans at a given game. So
(06:55):
you're not at the game, but if you're a Dodgers fan,
you log in and you could say boo boo boo,
you could say, you know, cheer, cheer, cheer, and in
theory that there'd be an algorithm that would then generate
the noise. That seems cool. I mean, what are we
doing here? I mean, think about it, though, control boats,
(07:16):
What are we doing here? Listen, Mr pessimists, think about
this for a second. Now. Is imagine that it's not
just the seventy thousand or whatever in Seattle that's dictating
for the football game how loud the noise is gonna be.
But it becomes something a couple of years from now
that all fans are able to log in and thus
(07:37):
be hitting the cheer, hitting the boom, and based on
the numbers, the amount of loudness created at the stadium
would be correlated. So if you don't have, like if
you're like the Tampa Bay Rays, you don't have a
lot of fans, maybe you're gonna hear ay, but then
if you're like the Dodgers, the other team's gotta hit,
(07:58):
it's gonna be boom. That sounds cool, Come on, passimist that.
I just I want to see what Foxes digital fans
are gonna look like, because that's allegedly what's coming out
on Saturday tomorrow, is that they're going to have digital
fans and attendance. And I've seen a couple of the
samples and I think it's much better than what we
saw last night. I'm r J. Bell. We're straight out
(08:20):
of Vegas. I take the world as I find it.
Jonas Knox, he's in some utopia in his own mind.
Your poor wife, oh Man, all right, let me ask
you this, Fez. You weren't here yesterday because you need
a lot of rest, you know, as you're getting up
there a little bit. But what was your takeaway on
(08:40):
the playoffs itself? Because we had heard, you know, there
was reports it was possible there'd be a late deal, man,
oh Man, from ten to sixteen teams at the last minute.
What's your thoughts. I think there's too much luck in
baseball this year, are j We already have a shortened season,
only sixty games, and now we're gonna have sixteen teams
(09:03):
make the playoffs with the best two out of three
to lead. WOWSA. We could get a really really good
team knocked out in the first round of these playoffs
and for you that because it wouldn't be quote unquote fair.
And I'm saying that not sarcastically. That's what you have
trouble with I do, all right, So we talked about
(09:24):
this yesterday. The amount of luck is a key consideration
for any game, any competition. If you have no luck,
that means the best team always wins. It's boring. If
you have too much luck, skill is disconnected from who wins.
That's bad to me. This feels like that. The decision
(09:46):
to increase the number of playoff teams I like. I
don't like the execution. The reason I like the sixteen
instead of ten is with only sixty games you can
make the case. And I think it's object of lye
true that your ability for the season to ascertain who
deserves to be in the playoffs to determine that is flawed.
(10:09):
It's limited. It's not as good as one sixty two.
So what do you need margin for air? What is
that margin? Extra teams in the playoffs makes sense, But
the idea that you have a three game playoff everyone's fake.
You can go one sixty two and oh and have
to play three games and if you lose two out
(10:30):
of three, you're done. That. I hate so and and
that's what I don't get for a sport that has
unlimited games. It seems like, why not just make it
a five game series in the first round, as a
seven game series the last three I don't understand. I'm
(10:51):
not sure why not make it seven for all rounds?
But we're gonna talk about. In fact, let's do this
because this is fascinating. Physick did the math, So up next,
FeSi did the math and saying, now that the Dodgers
and Yankees, likely the two best teams, are going to
have to play a first round playoff series, how does
(11:14):
that affect their chances? We've got the odds update, but
we got the actual math on the way it should go.
That's coming up next. But first, Straight out of Vegas
is brought to you by auto Zone. Auto Zone as
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(11:37):
Auto Zone. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox, and
this is the pregame show You've always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio, Vegan. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm
Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
I Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell, we are
(11:58):
Straight out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Ox, Voice of
You the Fan. Coming up in just a couple of moments,
we will continue to take a look at the start
of the MLB season. Great Day to join us Bernie
Frado from the weekend show that's Saturday's eleven Pacific to midnight.
It's a one of a kind. I think it's fair
to say. He joins along with Feazic Great Day. This
(12:20):
is the fastest grown show on Fox Sports Radio. Audiences
doubled in the last year. Thank you so much for that,
and we promise best football season yet personally for me.
Starting Monday, literally thirty two straight shows, one team each,
counting down from thirty two to one, with the number
(12:42):
one being the day before kickoff will be the Chiefs.
A laud of anticipation about that. Fez and I will
be betting each other too. Not good for Fez. I'll
just say in general history, if history is any indication
once your grief, AZ, Yeah, I'll bring my checkbook and
you can. You can I cash please. You can listen
(13:04):
on podcast. Just search for r J Belt or Straight
out of Vegas on your favorite player and catch up
during this weekend. Great shows this week right now in
Vegas on the strip two degrees. Neon is pumping, so
r J is. We discussed over the course of the
week the World Series favorites on the eve of the
start of the Major League Baseball season are the Dodgers
(13:26):
and the Yankees. The Dodgers and the Yankees got wins
on Thursday night, and it opens up a full slate
of games not only tonight but all throughout the course
of the weekend. Okay, so we're debating this playoffs how
good it is? Is it good? Is it bad? What
we know for sure? And I said, hand held high.
I said, this hurts the Yankees big time. This hurts
(13:49):
the Dodgers big time. The odds have moved, but not
as much as you might think. So a couple of
days ago, Dodgers Yankees were plus three eight, so that
means hundred wins, you three eighty if either you know,
on each of them individually if they win, and that's
a little less than four to one big favorites, biggest
(14:10):
number one and two. In ten years it went up
to plus four hundred for the Dodgers, So just a
smidge of a downgrade. Effectively, Yankees, though, have gone to
plus four thirty. And you might say, r J, you
were right. Lines moved, yeah, but not near as much
(14:31):
as they should move. As you did the math on
this back and napkin, it looks right to me. So Yankees.
That's used for an example. If you take out the
big effectively the odds tew us seventeen percent chance before
this change, before seventeen percent chance to win the World Series,
(14:51):
you think there's a four percent chance for them, meaning
that of all their chances, you've got a decrease it
by four percent because of the likely extra first round
playoffs series best of three. Now there's a chance the
Yankees would have not gotta buy or whatever. But let's
be honest, they very likely to. So you believe the
(15:13):
odds should have went from plus four, let's say on
the Yankees, to what because of the playoffs? Plus five?
R J. Wow, So that feels right to me. And
think about that if you're a Yankees fan, if you're
a Dodgers fan, seventeen percent chance we would have estimated
(15:33):
two days ago to win the World Series, and now
it's down almost. I mean you think about it, seventeen
four times four sixteen, so a quarter of that would
go to twelve. It's a little less, but you're taking
like almost a quarter of your World Series chances and
throwing them away. You might say, but r J, that's
(15:54):
gonna be an easier series. Yeah, but it's just best
of three. And the alternative was a bye, right, which
is I think a don't calculator and not just to buy.
But remember then the next round you could well have
gotten a team that just had to play in the
wild card round and they had to burn their best
starter as well. That is a great point, Steve Fazick,
(16:16):
good stuff there. I'm r J. Bell. We're straight out
of Vegas, Bernie. What's your thoughts on the playoffs themselves?
Are J. I think it creates a much more daunting
gauntlet for the good teams like the Dodgers. They've got
an additional layer to navigate through. And in a short
three game series, as you alluded to earlier, look, you
could run into the hot goalie syndrome you have in
(16:37):
hockey with a hot picture. Bob Yucker was a terrible hitter, right,
but for some reason he bad off Sandy Kofax. So
I think it makes it more difficult for the favorites. RJ. Jonas.
When's the last time you heard of Sandy Kofax, guy?
I mean he was on the Brady Bunch. I think
that one time? I remember, right? Was it without Hammered
or Drysdale? Anyone remember? For your time? That's Bernie Fretto.
(17:05):
Now did you now Bernie? And and again you don't
have to share with this, but how was Babe Ruth
as a person? Like when you covered him? I thought
he had pretty good power and he actually pitched well too,
yes and yeah? And did you did you vote for FDR?
I waited in line and voted for Thomas Dewey and
(17:27):
then I found out afterward that, uh yeah, you said
up laying the chalk. You're laying the che all right.
So Fez, if you look at last night, I know
you said with the fans and everything, you know you
were fine because you cash. But was there something about
the Dodge or something about the Yankees? I mean, in general,
it feels like a clean win by both teams, or
(17:49):
at least a four to one and eight to one
type win just reaffirms the idea that, oh, these are
the dominant teams. Do you think that's what's driving them?
Any line not moving as much in the World Series odds?
What do you think it is. I think that's certainly
a good part of it. That Remember there's only two games,
both on national TV. Everyone watched them. Were so starved
(18:10):
for sports and frankly watching the Dodgers play, and they
were all hustle mookie bets, taking extra bass and the like.
There was a lot to like about the Dodger effort
level last night. We're talking about last night's baseball and
the ramifications of the playoff expansion. Now, jan is this
one you're gonna love? You're gonna love this. So there
(18:32):
was a prop a proposition bat all around, which was
would any picture, any picture, have more than one complete
game during the regular season, so the over under was
one and a half. Right, So, literally, because of the
rules around the rain out that happened in the Yankees game,
(18:55):
both pictures gut credit for a complete game. So now
literally the first game in the books has two complete games,
so one each. They still need one more. But they
thought the entire sixty games that it was fifty or
so that anyone would get to. And now is that
(19:16):
something that every sports book is gonna pay out or
they're gonna be some that are gonna be a little
bit more difficult about that. Well, you know, I don't
know if you've heard about these cockroaches we're looking. We
haven't seen yet. Listen, to some degree, you just got
to go by the rules. Now, if you're an offshore
book your barroom bookie, there are no rules, right, and
that's the downside of that. So but in general, it
(19:37):
feels like this is when they're gonna have trouble cock
roach in their way out of Now here's my thought.
And I'm not a cynic, but I'm a guy that
I like to I smell, I follow the money, like
they said in Watergate, And it strikes me that this
Yankees game. The fact that got reined out, it felt
(19:59):
a little quick. I know it was coming down hard, Bernie,
What did you think it was? Like a normal season,
they would have called the game so soon. No, I
don't rg uh. Let's take a look at this quickly.
Because the game was called after an hour and fifty
eight minute randelays. And since there's no time limit in baseball,
it's in an umpire's discretion to call a game only
(20:22):
when he thinks the field is no longer playable or
they have a chance. I'm not finishing it, but there's
no time limit. Back in two thousand and thirteen, Cleveland
and Tampa Bay had a five hour randlay. So last night,
why did they call it after an hour and fifty
eight Because in the cod season things are a little different.
Players don't kill time during randolays like they used to.
Having been in a lot of clubhouses, there's a lot
(20:43):
of creature comforts like car tables, couches, sofa's chairs, all
of those have been removed. So they were having issues
spacing with social distancing last night. They wanted to get
the players out to a safer environment. They called the
games sooner than they would have, plus the fact there
were no fans in this day to your point, yes,
r J, they called it sooner than they would have.
(21:03):
That's Bernie Fratto. Last question, was the dead Ball era
really as boring as it seems reading about it? You know,
I like like a lot. All right, that's already everyone,
I listen if this kind of you know, let's be candy.
You don't hear this perspective anymore. Now some kids might
be saying, yeah, I hear it, you know with my
(21:25):
grandpa fair enough, I like it because, let's be candid,
the world's changing fast eleven o'clock Pacific, straight out of
Vegas weekend. It's like it was back in the dead
Ball area in a way. Bernie Fratto, thank you so much,
no doubt. All right, So Fez, let me ask you this.
(21:48):
I guess my question is do you call into question.
We talked about asterisks and the idea that you know,
will this be a legit title? Whoever wins when this
stuff adds up, you go to sixteen teams on you know,
seemingly a whim at the end, right to the last minute,
you potentially are calling games early. I'm not I don't
(22:11):
want to be a cinic in general. I'm not sure
if there's any other way to do it, But to
what degreed does each of these little decisions in your
mind invalidate the eventual winner. And I'm gonna ask Jonas
the same question after. I actually think we should put
an asterisk by it. R J think about all these
other sports, and the NBA people are like, should there
(22:31):
be an asterisk? They only playing eighty eight percent of
the games they were supposed to play, and now we're
only playing thirty seven percent, and now we're having teams
potentially make the playoffs with losing records. It's just too
much for me. Jonas, I think that there is going
to be the people that have the asterisk next to it.
I'm gonna consider it a legitimate World Series. I'm gonna
consider whoever wins it a legitimate World Series champion. But
(22:54):
it's the perfect season because if you really want to
piss off a certain fan base, you can go in
the other direction and not give them credit for it,
and they can't really spec back because there is legitimacy
to the fact. As Fez pointed out, you're playing so
few games that it almost it doesn't even qualify in
a lot of way, like you wouldn't even consider this.
(23:14):
I wonder how many games a rookie would have to
play to qualify for a Rookie of the Year award
for or to a crew a year, right, which, yeah,
and so it's such a limited number of games that
it's really hard to to take it serious. And I
wonder how many players are actually taking it serious because
they had to come back kicking and screaming to try
and get a season in at all. That's shown stocks
(23:36):
were straight out of Vegas, Fez. I know there's an
answer to this, I just don't know quite what it is.
It seems obvious. Why is sixty games less legitimate than
sixteen games in the NFL? Because of baseball major favorite
(23:56):
at most is like minus four r J, so has
a little less chance to win. Contrast that with like
the NFL, where when a team is a seventeen point
favorite at best against the worst, it is so rare,
you know, less much less than ten percent on a second.
So if you're saying that there are some games that
don't even matter of the sixteen because there's almost a
(24:18):
sure winner, how does that make the idea that sixty
games that matter, are less important than sixteen games, and
some don't matter because over course of sixty minutes in
an NFL game, a really good team is going to
win the game. And that's just not the case over
a nine inning baseball game. Okay, so, but what you're
saying is that you don't need a game. I mean,
(24:42):
and first off, what percentage of games are outside that range?
I mean, a vast majority of baseball games are gonna
be minus two d majority. I don't know vast, but
minus two hundred or less. So the underdog is gonna
win about a third of the time, and most NFL
games gonna be the same. They're competitive, and it's not
(25:03):
by a factor of five, right I really I get
the whole idea that you can't um play sixty football games.
So I'm not saying they should. But what I'm saying
is I agree there is You could make the case
there's more luck in baseball, though if you add an
(25:23):
interceptions and stuff. What's the biggest play that can happen
in baseball? How much does that hurt the team that
got unlucky versus a turnover? One turnover, they cover the
spread that team plus one or more of the time,
just one play. I don't fully understand it. I know
I'm supposed to, Jonas, Do you I mean instinctually, do
(25:46):
you have a reason why that you feel that way?
You mean that the NFL has sixteen games and it's
considered more legit than a sixty game. I just think
that it's because we're getting a full sixteen game season.
So it's all X, it's all based on history comparison. Yeah,
But objectively now it seems like that the mathematical answer
(26:10):
is going to have some variation where that the game.
The only answer could be right that the baseball games
are less indicative. Thus you need more games that taw
who's truly good? But could you need it by a
factor of sixty verses sixteen? Yeah? I don't. I think
(26:31):
I think we're just so used to the one sixty
two that that people have a hard time kind of
getting off of that. And and we talked about it yesterday.
Why not have less regular season games and more postseason games?
If you really wanted to get the true answer of
who the best team is, put them in high pressure
situations more often, or put more teams in high pressure
situations as opposed to the hundred sixty two games in
(26:54):
the season, which I would be totally on board with,
but I felt when we kept hearing the number of
games go lower and lower. Once we got below eighty games,
I sort of took a step back and said, this
is not going to be a really I guess just
seeing the season, that's going to be looked at favorably
(27:15):
by a lot of people. And and the question is
is that legitimate? Is the lack of legitimacy legitimate? Fez?
I mean, as you're pondering this is anything popping in
your head. I just think in baseball games so often
to get situations bases loaded, one out, r J hard
ground ball, it's either a double play, no runs, or
just just just like there's a field goal to win
(27:37):
or lose the game. I'm saying these were three runs,
are J. It's like worth like that team it's only
supposed to score four and if runs the entire game
and one play, you have a swing of three runs.
On listen, no one is questioning that there's more. But
here's the thing, though, every playing baseball is warranted where
(27:58):
you could say, well because of the position that they
had where they are, you know, shading one way or
shade the other or whatever, that all that grounder would
have gotten through if it would have been Yeah. Maybe,
But in general, there's more luck, at least on a
per play basis. And what I mean is this, In football,
(28:20):
you might make the case that any given play is
not as big as it is one playing baseball, But
what do you say when there's a fumble on the ground.
There's nothing in all the sports. It's more of a
fifty fifty coin flip than a fumble on the ground.
You agree with that, right, Okay, And a fumble is
(28:40):
gigantic when it comes to one. Turnover is gigantic when
it comes to who's gonna win the game? Yeah, And
but still it's if I'm supposed to score points. I
conceded that point a right. So what I'm saying is
the only rationale is there's a couple of situations in
a given baseball game in which if it goes one way,
(29:01):
it's zero runs, if it goes the other, it's three runs.
And three runs is such a big chunk of the
overall scoring expected that there's more luck there. Okay, I'm
not sure I agree, but I think I do, all right,
I think I do. But let's double the number of
games thirty two verses sixteen. Oh, let's just add another sixteen.
And still it's not enough. Let's add another twelve. Not
(29:24):
stone on enough? What would you guys rather have less
innings in a game or less games in a season?
I'd much rather have the full endings? And yeah, all right,
last thing on baseball, I'm r J. Bow straight out
of Vegas. Blue Jay's in Buffalo. Sounds like like an
indie movie with a very low budget. Fez betting style.
(29:51):
What he thought about that and said, all right, that's
good betting style, Fez. What's your takeaway? Well, it's still
a big negative for the Blue Jays is having to
play in their Triple A Buffalo stadium. Still big negative
compared to what compared to them playing in Toronto. You do, yeah,
(30:11):
but you're saying it's still a big negative. So still
compared to what compared to it looked like for a
while they were gonna be playing all sixty games on
the road, as you were in Fantasy fazz World with
that one, No, Joe, as you read as much as
anyone I know on sports, what I would always read
is that Buffalo was the last resort, and you know,
(30:34):
because they didn't want it, but they weren't going to
play all sixty on the road. There were three locations
that were talked about the most. It was done Edin, Florida, Buffalo,
and Pittsburgh. And it looked like Pittsburgh was gonna get it,
and then they shot that down earlier in the week,
and so Buffalo, I guess, was really the only option
they had left. Yeah, but Fas somehow in his mind
things I'll have a really good answer on the show.
(30:57):
If they were playing all the road games, I'll be like,
r J, that's bad. That's bad for the Blue Jays.
I mean, where did you read where did you read
that it was even like like like more than a
long shot that they were gonna play you know, have
no you know, literally just have every game be you know,
effectively at the other team's park. I did read an article.
I don't have it in front of me in terms
(31:18):
of the reference ERG, but it was not almost saying
it wasn't a possibility, but it was it was a
long shot. You're correct, But but it's the only thing
you've talked in prep. You talked about it for twenty minutes. Well,
they'll be playing in Buffalo. They won't be playing an
opening day though, because they've got upgrade the lights, the
clubhouse and facilities. It looks like in early August they'll
be playing their home games in Buffalo. So here's the adjustment.
(31:40):
The over underwin totals just sixty games only, but sixty
and the win total. Before they felt like this was
gonna be a big problem. It wasn't that long ago
they were gonna play in Toronto. Was the thought. Twenty
seven and a half wins out of sixty games was expected.
The bet down has been modest, one game down to
(32:00):
twenty six and a half. Fez not enough? Is it
not enough? I still like the under twenty six and
a half. So you actually, well yeah, because well, I
guess they could have played all the games on the road,
but you gave this out and now you're reinforcing it.
If you can get twenty six and a half, you
like und under Toronto? I do, okay. And the last
(32:22):
thing I would say is this, I think that the
negative for Toronto is that right now and at the
end of the year, because I think now it's a
big psychological distraction. I think they're gonna be fine with
it for a while, but then it's just gonna be
an accumulation of time away from home and the strain,
and I think this is gonna be a fatigued Blue
(32:43):
Jay's team at the end of the year. Jamal Adams
talking again. Be sure to catch live editions of Straight
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm
Pacific Straight out of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio.
You can always check out the show on the I
Heart Radio app. I'm Jonas Knocks Voice of You the Fan.
He is the Voice of Vegas r J bel Do
(33:04):
you see that, Mike Control. I mean, that was pretty good, Jonas,
wasn't it. He's a broadcast professional. Oh my gosh, I
gotta learn something from these guys. All right, I'm not
gonna give Adams too much time. Obviously, Squeaky Wheel gets oiled.
He wants to a big old contract or, he wants
out in the Jets, and he's just gonna jibber and
he's gonna jabber. And this is what we've wrought in
(33:30):
this player empowerment era. It feels like there's been no
limits in a way. And if you look at Jacksonville,
and they've got cornerback saying I don't like it here, Okay,
trade me for two first round picks. Now he's gonna
get a jumbo contract. You're telling the players this is
the way to do it. So I don't blame him.
I just hope that the Jets don't cave because it
(33:51):
won't stop if they do. And it's not as if
they're not. The guy's not He's under a league mandated contract.
It's not like the Jets underpaid him or anything. All Right,
when we come back up next and I'm telling you
something this is true, you might be skeptical. We've got
a baseball trend you can play tonight. That's a D
(34:14):
eighteen winners and losers D eighteen and that's coming up next.
But first, straight out of Vegas is brought to you
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(34:38):
r J. Bel I'm Jonas Knocks. This is the pregame
show you've always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app.
Search f s R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell,
(34:59):
Were straight out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks voice
of you the fans. So r J Baseball is back.
We've got a full slate of games, not only tonight
but all throughout the rest of the weekend. And you,
the Voice of Vegas, have a trend. Yes I do.
But you know I'm gonna leaf Fast because he gets
nervous if he gets near the end of the segment.
So here's what we know about Fast. He won two
(35:22):
super contacts, only guy ever to do that. That's amazing.
He also has won ten straight free picks on here. Now,
what do you think, Jonas? You know Fats at this point.
Do you think he'll make a pick now that you
can he could possibly lose tonight or is he going
to make a pick on some future event? What do
you He'll lean on something he won't like it. Steve
(35:43):
Azek W N B A R. J Seattle to win
the w NBA the future plus four fifty. So when
does this? When does this settle October continue? Seattle should
return to championship form the storm one at all in
(36:05):
two thousand and eighteen. What happened last year when they
were barely above five, Well, their m v P Brianna
start was out all year long and that's why Seattle
fell to eighteen and sixteen. Brianna starts back. Seattle should
absolutely return to that championship level play. And let's look
at their competition. All of the other contenders in the
w n B A are way down this year with
(36:26):
key injuries. Washington, Las Vegas, Connecticut are all hurting this year.
The pick of Seattle to win the w n B
A r J plus four fifty. No, listen, he would
never take a four and a half to one dog
if he had a street going if it. He just
knows there's no chance he's gonna be undefeated all the
way through October. It's what's going on. I will say this,
Jona is and for everyone out there, literally Fez three
(36:51):
years now, he's been doing the w n B A
at pregame dot com. He's just killing it. I mean,
it's like almost what was it six, Steve, it is
it is, I mean, unbelievable. But I do have a
trend and this baby. Let's give Bernie Frido credit. He
does the weekend show eleven o'clock Pacific straight out of
Vegas Weekend on Saturday nights. And he came in and said,
(37:16):
big or favorites, clear favorites in game one of Baseball
do great. It was a D eighteen and forty six.
So we went into the database, confirmed that that looks
mighty good. That's amazing. But then I had a feeling.
I said, you know, I wonder how the big, big
favorites do versus the smaller favorites, because it's hard to
(37:36):
win with big, big baseball favorites. Lo and behold, minus
two above really didn't have any great value. So here
is the trend with updated amazing numbers, and I got
my favorite pick on it tonight. It's gonna be the
best bat. The trend is this first game for the team,
they're favored by minus one or more up to minus
(38:03):
two or above, so a clear favor but not a
gigantic favor. You go back fifteen years, these teams Jonas
are one oh four and forty one, four winners forty losers,
and the logic is there. The logic is favorites that
are motivated do a lot better than regular favorites because
(38:26):
oftentimes underdogs have value because the favorites are not motivated.
You see this in the NFL playoffs. The favorites do
a great job because they might be laying nine points,
but they are so focused. Well, first game of the year,
these teams are focused, and there's three games left to
meet this criteria. San Diego Padres tonight. St. Louis Cardinals tonight.
(38:50):
And then here's my best bet. The Oakland A's. Oakland
A's minus one forty falls into this category. And that's
like an r oh. I. I mean, this is like
r oh I. This isn't just a I mean, this
is amazing. One oh four and forty. Be careful, there's
no Shore winners. By the way, Dave Assler, one of
our pros, also liked Oakland That double shot is why
(39:14):
I made it my best bet. And they're also used
to not really playing in front of a lot of
fans anyways, so exactly that in Tampa Bay, you can
say that about absolutely so yeah, it does makes some sense. Um,
and so that will make you too and know on
the season to start the year, that's a yesterday. I mean, listen,
we laid the lumber, but we did. You see what
the line did though, Jonas, The line went up like
(39:35):
thirty cents right after I gave it out. Coincidence? Maybe
it is the odd couple coming up next year on
many of these Fox Sports Radio affiliates. If you missed
any of today's show, including a best bet and a trend,
you can check out the podcast at Fox sports radio
dot com. We're back on Monday, six pm Eastern Time,
right here on Fox Sports Radio
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