November 26, 2018 • 41 mins
RJ Bell and the guys discuss the blow out victory of Michigan over Ohio St. this weekend and give you the Vegas impact on the win. The Vegas wise guys give you their reaction to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers losing once again and what this means from a Vegas perspective. They also recap week 13 of College football and give their biggest takeaways from this week, plus they preview Monday Night Football between the Titans and Texans!
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
You know all those Twitter people you know, talking about
horrible like telling me I need to like go on
the radio and like apologize the horrorball. And I said, listen,
if he loses the Ohio State, it's gonna be exactly
like every other year, isn't it. Well you just wait,
Well maybe next year. And last thing about hardball, he smells.
(00:24):
You're listening to Fox Sports radios. You heard it. I'm
r J Live Coast to coast six o'clock eastern, three
o'clock here in Vegas. We've got an action packed Monday
for you. Chomping at the bit Thursday Friday. Yeah, I
was eating turkey, I was watching football, but I was thinking,
I'm not speaking to the straight out of Vegas audience.
(00:47):
I missed it. We're back full week almost every week
during the year. We we believe not in no days off,
but hardly any days off doesn't quite the ring Belichick's
did today recap NFL including Aaron Rodgers, including Baker Mayfield
(01:08):
in the colleges, the Ohio State Buckeys deserve a lot
of attention, and obviously Monday Night football and we've got
a big, big bet on Monday Night that we're gonna
share it to you and with you in studio with me,
NFL expert Steve Pezick, College expert Brad Powers. They're the
(01:32):
pros who know sports. Bettters listen for the money. Sports
fans listen to no more than their buddies. My personal promise,
we will deliver the Vegas truth to you. You can't
have pros without Joe's here. It is Joe and his knocks.
Thanks are j always good to be here as we
come be alive here on straight out of Vegas from
(01:52):
the Geico Fox Sports Radio studios, were fifteen minutes could
save you cent or more on car insurance. Visit geik
dot com for a free rate quote. We start with
the biggest game all weekend long in football and it's
in the college ranks where Ohio State blasted Michigan nine
(02:14):
at the Horseshoe in Columbus on Saturday. R J. What
is the Vagas perspective on the Buckeye's performance? Obviously impressive
and that's easy, right. What we try to do is
go beyond what's obvious, beyond the typical hot takes, cold
cash over hot takes. But in our production meeting, it
(02:35):
really shows you how complex this Ohio State win was
Brad Powers. Let's be honest, we have our choice for
the most part of any college expert we wanted in here.
I mean, think about it, the first sports batting show
on a major national network coast to coast. Who wouldn't
(02:57):
want to be here? I chose Brad Powers. There's a
reason he knows his stuff. Tell you this, though he's imperfect,
he doesn't like to admit that, but he's in Brad.
Would you agree, oh? Absolutely? Well, I don't think absolutely
is how you typically would respond, but fair enough. And
(03:18):
it goes to show you how complex handicap and can be.
And that's why it's like the famous line from the
World Poker Tour it takes a few minutes to learn
and a lifetime to master. Hold him a right, great line.
Mike Sexton came up with that line. But I think
(03:40):
handicapping is the same way you take am not saying
you should do this with your seventh grade son, No, no, no,
but an average intelligence eighth grader, seventh grader could understand
a point spread pretty quickly. All right, he's probably that's
something you gotta let him kind of learn on his own.
May but he would understand it, but I wouldn't want
(04:02):
to be bet in the picks of a seventh grader.
This is complex. Here's I think a great example Brad
coming into the game. Now, let's caveat this. The line
was drastically out of whack. It would seem Ohow State
was a four point under doctor a game time as
(04:24):
with four points of home field advantage for the Buckeyes,
which I think is fair considering it was a big game.
That means Michigan was supposed to be eight points better
now starting the season. O, how State was supposed to
be about five points better, right because the line was nine.
If you were to bet Ohio State Michigan early, the
(04:45):
line was not so the idea of five points of
advantage plus home field equals nine, okay, and now it's
eight the other way. The idea of these teams somehow
changed by let me see in points. I don't think
anyone could have really thought that was the case. The
(05:07):
fact the line was there, I guess, but it didn't
make a lot of sense. Oh wait a minute, fest,
who'd you have in the game? So explain to me
make your case for that handicap. I got fooled by
the Michigan overall power rating when they're playing a team
like Indiana, middle of the road type of team, upper due.
(05:29):
Michigan's a great bully, and their power rating definitely went
up almost two touchdowns over the course of the year.
To hold on a second, Michigan's power rating went up
to touchdowns. Not quite that. But so when you said
that it was what why? Because they're able to beat
teams by third I understand why you upgrade And why
(05:51):
did you say two touchdowns over I rounded up from town. Yeah,
you can't understand. So the power ratings went up, Yes,
so they could beat a bad team instead of beating
them by ten, they could beat them by twenty or more. However,
that power rating does not apply clearly when Michigan has
to play a fast, elite team. But you thought it did.
(06:15):
I was fooled by the overall increase in the Michigan
power rating, And yes, I thought I did, and I
made a mistake. Yeah, I mean, obviously all you can
do is win at the time. Is the goal? Right
for a professional better If you want to mansion in
a yacht, you just gotta hit I don't think I don't, Brad,
(06:37):
I mean you talked to a lot of pros in town.
Was all the pros other than Fez on Ohio State. No,
there's a lot of Michigan people. So the assumption was
just fundamentally, this Michigan team is just so much better
than we expected. I think one of the advantages that
at least some of the pros thought they significantly had
was that Michigan defensive front against Ohio State offense of
(07:00):
line that's struggled most of the season. That was one
that they pointed to. Yeah, but again, it's back to
the and I do think it's such a powerful concept.
It's back to the idea of what's the baseline for
the team, Meaning, if you just look at the last
two or three years, what is the baseline for the team?
(07:22):
And how much can that really change? So like who,
it's one thing in the NBA, if Lebron comes into
the Lakers, it's a whole different story, right, Lebron's in
with the Lakers, and it's a whole different team. You
can't look at last year and say, wait, they were
only the Lakers are only favored by this much. That
doesn't matter. It's a whole different team. But how many
(07:43):
you know, Michigan had how many returning starters? About four?
All right, so four team returning starters and then eight
players are so that weren't good enough to play last year, right,
Usually it's not gonna be the true freshman to come
in and really or any true freshman that are true
difference makers on Michigan, no other than the quarterbacks. Shade
(08:04):
Patterson was the major upgrade for Michigan. Really, not after
watching the Ohio State game. Now, I mean maybe maybe,
but so really you just got down to it. It
was the idea of fourteen people getting a year older,
so they're gonna get better, right, And then the idea
of people who weren't good enough to start last year
(08:25):
now becoming good enough to start. That can't be the difference.
I Hey, that guy that didn't start last year, he's
gonna make Michigan better than Ohio State. That seems crazy.
And then the idea of this quarterback coming in, which
could be a three or four five point change. Wouldn't
be uh fourteen point change, but it could be a
three or four point change. Now, what's changing on how State? Right? O?
(08:49):
How State lost about the same number of players. Yeah,
they had about thirteen starters coming back, and how State
was better last year? You would think the players replacing
those starters, we're better than Michigan's. Ohio States has a
better has had better recruiting classes in the mission, and
it's not really close, right, Okay, So what was the scenario?
(09:11):
The only thing it could have been was distraction? Was
this Buckeye team, for whatever reason, doesn't get up even
in spots you think they would, you know, like almost
like the Steelers, right, the Steelers. We keep preaching again
and again that oh, you feel like after almost losing
(09:34):
to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh should be up, But no, they need
like double double bonus effort to really need to be up.
And we really saw that on defense, and defense requires
the most effort. Let's be frank here, And when we
saw the Nebraska game and the Maryland game, that defense
was just flat as a pancake in those games. It's
a good point. But here's the thing that I don't get.
(09:56):
How the wise guys could have been on mission and
the line was right if o how State was exactly
what they performed on the field, Meaning if this was
just a computer and only data we had was the scores,
on these ten games or whatever prior you would say, Okay,
this Michigan team's eight points better, but there had to
(10:19):
be a significant material chance that ohow, State wasn't playing
as well as you would expect because of something other
than they all got hooked on heroin or something crazy
that would make him where they're not as good, right
they all started drinking thirty beers a day or who
knows what there the Achilles got caught at night, but
(10:41):
no one knows. I mean, how could you get that
much worse? So it was like coming into the game
to me and we had this exact handicap right here
on straight out of Vegas. Coming into the game, it
was a matter of okay, if O how States is bad,
the line is right, and for how State isn't this bad?
And it's more about boy, they just weren't motivated. This
(11:03):
feels like the game they're gonna be motivated over all others.
Thus that percentage of the time, it's gonna be a
heck of a bat at plus four. So now straight
out of Vegas, r J bel last thing on this game,
Fez is making a very interesting point. Horrible pick, horrible,
but an interesting point. It's not just how good is
(11:28):
this team? On one hand, Michigan is how good are
they when they can enforce their will? And how good
are they when they can't? All right physically? Number two
for Michigan, how good are they on offense when the
defense is a normal defense where Patterson speed can make
(11:48):
three or four big plays a game, versus against the
rare defenses or how States one of them that has
so much team speed on defense that running quarterbacks not
going to be as to give a problem. They can
still make some plays. But what percentage of the Michigan
offense this year, even in let's say the semi competitive games,
so not when they were favored by thirty plus, favored
(12:10):
in the teens, you know, against what were they against
Penn State? Ten like against Penn State or teams like
Penn State? Shay Patterson was what percentage of the offense
the plays that matter? I would say the offense? Yeah,
And it was usually because he was faster, right, yeah,
I can make plays scrambling obviously, and that opened up
(12:30):
the passing game for him. So the theory is Ohio
State's gonna stop that. And that's what we saw. So
Michigan three power ratings when they can be a bully
when they can't. And then you also, I guess you
could look at it as four is yes or no?
Does the team have team speed? To start Patterson with
Ohio State, there's two power ratings. This is them in
(12:51):
almost every situation, which is gonna be a lot worse
than you might think. And then finally, this is them
when they really care and they're about as good as
they should be on paper. Then, which is one of
the best teams in the country. Is that a fair
rapp up, totally fair top three talent for OHIU State,
top three head coach. They clearly showed that on Saturday.
(13:13):
And what's fascinating is against Northwestern. I probably I'm gonna
lean early towards north what's the early line on that?
Favored by fourteen, I'm gonna lean towards Northwestern because even
though it's the Big Ten title, even though they want margin,
I think they're gonna just shrug and eat their hot pockets,
play their PlayStation and be Okay, hey we showed Michigan something,
(13:34):
didn't we But if they do get in, if they
do get into the playoffs, those buck Eyes, you know
they're gonna be motivated. I'm not saying they're gonna win,
but I'm saying they're gonna look a lot better than
they did most of this season. When we come back,
we're gonna discuss Aaron Rodgers and just how far he
(13:54):
has fallen. That's coming up next. He's r J. Bell
and I'm Jonas Knocks, and this is the pregame show
you always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Be
sure to catch live editions of Straight out of Vegas
weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. This program
(14:17):
brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Last year, over three
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or visit Progressive dot com today and find out if
you could say. I'm r J. Bow, we are Straight
out of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knocks. The voice of
you the fan coming up here in just a couple
of moments. It is a bad situation for a Super
(14:39):
Bowl champion. We'll get to it here momentarily. Here on
Fox Sports Radio. We love bringing the fun of Vegas
to you each day, straight from the strip. Right now,
sixty three degrees on the strip. Neon is sparkling like
a Christmas tree. I'll tell you this, Jonas, there's advantages
(14:59):
the being on in the weekend your show. What weekend
shift do you do? I do weekend overnights, Friday and
Saturday overnights, and then I worked Sunday Night with uh
get the Get the Sound already, Brady Quinn. So so,
first off, it's wonderful that you're keeping your energy up
on the weekend for your daytime gig. But but what
(15:24):
I'll say is this this time last year, you know,
our producer who is not with Fox ay More Michael
at the time, said oh yeah, the bosses are saying
we gotta play Christmas music. I'm like, wait a minute.
Straight out of Vegas is rock and roll. We no
Christmas And I'm like, listen, let's try to do our
music and see if anyone notices. Now, no one noticed
(15:46):
the whole month. I have a feeling if we somehow
didn't play Christmas music, jon Is, they would notice here
at six East. Yeah, I believe. So it's a much
bigger audience, a lot more notoriety. All right, Archie, Let's
get the Sunday night football where the Vikings took care
of the Packers twenty four to seventeen in Minnesota. What
(16:07):
is the Vegas takeaway from the now Owen six on
the road Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Well, one
end is and we've been talking about this for years.
Green Bay has the biggest disparity and performance between home
field and away games. Why well, Lambo is one of
(16:28):
the best home fields and maybe the best. To me,
it's the most consistent. Who's the best right now? Fez
Saints in the mix home field advantage. Seattle's in the mix.
But when Seattle is not winning, the home fields good
but not great. Right, It's been a while since the
(16:51):
Seahawks weren't generally winning the Saints. When they're not winning,
that home field gets to be about average. What's the
iver crowd enthusiasm when the crowd's rocking and the noise
in Seattle? The noise in New Orleans is a humongous advantage,
(17:11):
humongous for the Saints and the Seahawks and Lambeau. The
noise is nice to me. It's the quirky playing field. Yeah,
it's grass, but also it's at slit grasses. You hear
all the time. The struggles on Lambeau surface for teams
there are timing pattern teams, teams not in the division,
(17:33):
so they don't play there very often. And to me,
if I could have any home field would be the
one that's consistent like Lambeau. And I've read a lot
about the defenders on the rush on Rogers. They complain
how with that grasping slick they just feel like they
can't get any traction and they can't. That's a good
point because the flip side is Rogers has been one
(17:55):
of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL during his prime.
Not the type that's gonna run too much, but the
type that, hey, it's he's driving for a fewer goal
field goal. It's third and eight and you almost sack him,
but he scrambles for twelve yards. Those are the backbreakers.
Those are the real backbreakers. So one almost like Larry
(18:20):
Bird on the parquet floor. You've got a guy that
knows how to take advantage of the quirky home and
it's a negative for the defense, positive for Aaron Rodgers
because he's used to it like Bird was on those
dead spots we used to hear about right, So to me,
(18:40):
it makes sense if you do the math. Last seven years,
the prime of Aaron Rodgers career. I think it's fair
to say the difference between green Bay at home in
green Bay on the road just point differential, and over
seven years, the strength of schedule is gonna even out.
You're gonna play good teams on the road, back teams
on the road. Green Bay is ten and a half
(19:03):
points different They're ten and a half points better at home.
No other teams even close. Like number two is like
eight points. The average team is six. Well, think about it.
Guy's home field advantage is three. If it's Pittsburgh at
home against Baltimore, Pittsburgh's three. If it's at Baltimore Baltimore three.
(19:23):
If the teams are even, well that's just let me
do that yet six points. So green Bay's home field
is ten and a half. It's a lot more than six.
Some of that I think is Lambeau, and some of
it is teams that have a great home field naturally
become overrated. Imagine, and let's use basketball as the analogy.
(19:49):
Imagine that at our gym, the hoop on our side
of the court. Let's say you didn't flip courts. It's
one of the reasons they flip courts right. They don't
want any shenanigans with the hoops. Back in the day,
Let's say our hoop was just like five millimeters bigger.
You couldn't quite see it with your eye, but it
makes a difference. Maybe you're making three more shots of game, well,
(20:12):
six points or so, all right, if it's two pointers,
you would be overrated because you have this advantage that
isn't obvious that other teams don't have. When you go
on the road, most of the time, they're gonna look
at your blended stats. But those blended stats are deceiving
because half those games, in the long run, you've got
this unfair, this extreme advantage. Green Bay has an extreme
(20:35):
advantage at home because the Lambo. I don't think it's
a sign that the Green Bay's necessarily bad on the road.
I think it's Green Bay's overrated overall because they have
an inordinate advantage at home. Agreed. And I think what
sums it up the best is look at Aaron Rodgers.
What past does he throw better than anybody else. It's
got to be that back shoulder fade pass where he
(20:57):
just throws a wide receiver open who's blanketed by the cornerback.
On slick grass, the corner can't reverse and never get
to it. But on the road, on a good turf,
it's a much more dangerous past. He doesn't throw it
as much. Steve Fezzy, that's a great point. It's not
just defenders aren't used to it. Russia, the past, rush,
et cetera. It's not just Rogers is they're building plays
(21:20):
around it a right. Imagine again, a basketball team that
played outdoors, what would they do? Pound it down low?
Pound it down low? Well, if you were a team
or I think a good example is teams have played
altitude they in in in UH football, those teams tend
to really focus on cardiovascular health, being in shape. And
(21:44):
what do they do. They tend to play fast. Remember Denver,
it's no coincidence. Let's move to the NBA. The Nuggets
have often played fast because they figure that's going to
be an advantage at altitude relative to the opposition. And
both Utah and Denver are masters in the second half
when they play a team off back to backs to
just run them right out of the arena. So Green Bay,
(22:06):
I'm r J. Bell straight out of Vegas recapping the
Packers in their woes. Green Bay is a team that's
getting There's a lot of talk now about how bad
they are on the road. I think it's more they're
just so good at home, they're naturally gonna be overrated
on the road. But here's what I know about Aaron Rodgers.
Yards per attempt is a maybe if I could have
(22:27):
one stat, not an index like quarterback rating that it's
all kind of stats combined, but one plane. I can
calculate this with my calculator stat yards per attempt for
a quarterback would be my stat. What what would be yours? Fez,
that's my number one. I'm not saying you're copying, all right,
I'm just saying awesome. I'm not saying I'm just saying,
(22:50):
so the fact of the matter is, to me, if
you look at the yards per tempt, Rogers during his
prime prime was the best in the history of the NFL.
Rogers more recently has been below average in the NFL. Now,
So think about that best in the NFL now. In
(23:11):
the preseason, I said this on Straight out of Vegas.
Now was on the weekend, right, so no Christmas music,
And I was saying this and I and I did
it on all my national and you know, all my
big hits and everyone, you know, my weekly radio hits,
and everyone's saying you're crazy. I'm like, well, the numbers
say this. So to me. Right now, I think it's
(23:33):
fair to say Aaron Rodgers is still a top, top,
top quarterback. Aaron Rodgers today in two thousand eighteen is
not an all time great quarterback. And we saw that
at the end of the Viking game. Frankly, he missed
two wide open receivers that cost the Packers the cover
(23:53):
last night. Right now, you gotta play one game against
the Aliens for the planet. Where's an Rogers at on
your list of quarterbacks? At the very top? You would
you think Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the
NFL today, Brady Mahomes, Rogers throw Blump Breeze. I'd put
Breeze number one, Okay. So it all it took was
(24:13):
me asking the question a second time, real real close. Now,
if you would have said Rogers again, I would say,
but fest let me ask you this. Remember, it's where
the planet's sake. You'd be like, you know, maybe maybe now,
last thing on the Packers, what's the motivational issue. We've
all been here in whispers about the coach McCarthy some discontent.
(24:37):
Now they've lost so many games in a row. Now,
even if they make the playoffs, the Packers, it's hard
to imagine them going far. Does that decrease Rogers enthusiasm
just a smidge. I'm not saying he's not gonna try
to win, but as he maybe eat that pizza on
Tuesday night instead of going for an extra jog, I
think maybe. And I'm looking to still fade the Packers.
(25:00):
In just one minute, we're gonna talk about the biggest
stories in college football that's coming up next. But for
all the latest from around the world of sports, it's
Dan Bayer. Cincinnati Bengals are gonna start Jeff Driscoll at
quarterback in Week thirteen against the Broncos because Andy Dalton
is done for this season. Bengals placed Dalton on injured
reserve today with a thumb injury. The NFL network says
(25:20):
Dalton tour ligaments in his thumb and yesterday's lost to
the Cleveland Browns, there's another quarterback change in the NFL.
This was nothing to do with injuries. Blake Bortles benched
in favor of Cody Kessler. Kessler and the Jaguars will
take on the Colts in Week thirteen. Jaguars made another move,
firing offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett earlier today. Some good news
(25:40):
maybe a sigh of relief for the l A Chargers.
Running Back Melvin Gordon is considered week to week with
a knee injury. Suffered an m c L injury at
his right knee and yesterday's match up against the Cardinals.
Head coach and that Gordon said today it's not likely
he'll play Sunday night against Pittsburgh, but the team does
expect Gordon to return at some point prior to the
end of the regular season. Colts tout and Jack Doyle's
(26:03):
season is over he's out because of a kidney injury.
And Broncos tout and Jeff Higerman has done for the
season with broken ribs that are bruised lung. Following yesterday's
win against Pittsburgh, Titans and Texans tonight eight fifteen Eastern Time,
and the NBA Pacers got Victor Oladipo's gonna miss their
game against the Jazz with his sore knee conjegut the
new number one ranked team in college hoops, edging out
Kansas for the top spot in the AP Top twenty
(26:25):
five Bowl, and finally third base. But Josh Donaldson has
sounded a one year deal with twenty three million dollars
with the Braves, who also signed free agent catcher Brian McCann.
Back to you, thanks, Dan, straight out of Vegas comes
to you alive here from the Geico Fox Sports Radio studios,
where it's easy to say fifteen per cent or more
on car insurance with Geico Go to Geico Comic Call
eight hundred nine seven Otto. The only hard part figuring
(26:46):
out which way is easier. Coming up twelve minutes from
now here on Fox Sports Radio, we will have best
bets and a look ahead to Monday Night Football. I
am Jonas Knox, the voice of You the Fan. He
is the voice of AGA U R. J. Bell. Yeah,
and we were in a contest seven hundred thousand dollars
cash winner, take a goal, and we actually have a
(27:07):
pick on the Monday night game coming up, As Jonas said,
Jeff Driscoll, if I have a bet on a team,
about the last thing I want to hear is Jeff
driscoll was your starting quarterback, Brad Yeah, you being a
college expert really benefit in the NFL because these especially
(27:28):
the younger players, and there's more emphasis than ever on
young players in the NFL. It really is hollowed out
the league. You're either a superstar or you're young on
a rookie deal or a cheap second deal. What did
you see from Drisco in college? Quickly overrated at Florida.
Probably didn't get great offensive coaching. That's when Will must
Champ was the head coach at Florida. Not known for
(27:49):
an offensive Mine just go got beat out. Ended up
transferring to Louisiana Tech, where he had a solid season.
But keep in mind Louisiana Tech is Conference USA and
Jeff Drisco was a borderline five star talent coming out
of high school, so just talent alone, he was able
to have a good senior season. My favorite Law Tech
quarterback Terry Bradshaw, without a without a question, you know
(28:10):
he was a javelin champion. I did not know that
you ever see a picture of me when I was
like tanning my little twelve jersey. Something to see Fez
we even get all right, I'll take it, Fez. You
saw the game with Cincinnati. You thought the team responded
(28:31):
well to drist school. Yeah, so Cleveland is trucking Cincinnati
winning by twenty plus. Dalton goes out with a hand injury,
and I was shocked how the Bengals sideline really responded
positively to Driscoll coming in. I tell you, Jonas, that's
the bar, right. I used to watch the old Bob
Costs the show. Later it was like, just sit down
with famous people and talk for a while. It was
(28:52):
after Letterman a bunch of them on YouTube. When someone
said something funny enough, the guys running the cameras were
laughing and you could hear it echo, that's funny. So
that's my bar. That's my bar. Just so you know, guys,
it was a busy weekend in college football. We had
an injury to a star quarterback at UCF. We've talked
(29:14):
about Ohio State, Michigan, r J. Your biggest takeaway on
the college football weekend in Vegas was what Well, I
lean on Brad for this stuff, but you know, I
think Jonas, you're right. Let's start with Central Florida, a
team that there was a lot of talk. Hey, they
were ahead of Ohio State, quarterback goes down, looks like
he could be a career threatener. Obviously we wish the
(29:35):
best for the player. How at the college level, how
many points per game? Does this uh absence downgrade Central Florida.
So the quarterback name is Mackensey Meltain, a two year starter.
He started for all of these wins with the exception
of just one in this current win streak for Central Florida.
He's worth the NFL typically three points. This quarterback at
(29:56):
UC mckensey Meltin worth about six points significant loss for
the night. So Alabama if they were to played Central Florida,
we were showing how extreme it would be with and
and by the way, when I don't pronounce a player's name,
you can just smoothly go in and say is that
You don't have to say, well, the name of that player,
(30:16):
but you know it might you know, I'm gonna point
out the fact are you didn't pronounce his name the
name of that player. You don't need to do that,
just say that. Let's try it again. So the quarterback
for Central Florida, if he were playing against Alabama, what
would the line be. And if he weren't playing, what
would the line be. Yeah, without Mackenzie Melton Alabama. Yeah,
(30:37):
without McKenzie Melton at quarterback, Alabama would be closing in
on a thirty one point favorite over Central Florida. Thirty one. Wow,
it's all gonna happen. No not well, let me throw
this scenaria real quick, and we'll go through some college
football playoff scenarios tomorrow when the rankings before the selection show.
(30:58):
What if what happens if Okla him on, Ohio State
lose Washington State, not Washington State, just gotta beat by Washington.
Oh my gosh, I forgot Georgia, Georgia if they lose
the Alabama two losses Georgia, No, I don't think so
because they don't have any big wins to put someone
in there. Thanks fast, you know what we can do.
(31:19):
We'll just any time we talk college football from here,
we'll just take that drop and it's like, Brad, what
do you think about this? And this and maybe this?
Let's hear we're fast. We're FASTA has to say, well,
Pressica gotta put someone in there like it just that
would be it? Who do you think, bro? If you
had to be Let's assume Ohio State loses. Let's assume
(31:42):
Oklahoma loses. I think they probably put in I mean,
let's think who's the two loss teams that would be
in the mix. Right, So Central Florida with zero losses
would be in the mix. Um, Texas would have to
be in the mix. Right, all three losses? They have three? Yeah,
that's huh. So Georgia, you're saying, so Clinton, no one
(32:06):
in the A c C. Holy cownt fest might be right.
You gotta put someone in there. Maybe maybe it's Georgia.
What do you think? Um? I would lean towards Georgia
about the way this committee works. They'll probably put L
s U in there because after two losses, they were
ranked ahead of teams with no losses in one loss,
(32:27):
So who the hell knows with that committee? Boy, imagine
another year with the SEC. Huh. Maybe Michigan, Brad, you've
been big on mission. They have two losses real quick.
Notre Dame didn't look great. How are you because Collins like, oh,
it's a Northern team, they're gonna get beat bad. How
(32:48):
much of a downgrade for the fighting ours? Really no
down grade for me, believe it or not. Uh? And
I think this is when we've been banging on Fest here.
Fest had a great handicapped concerning Notre Dame last week.
He's said, Hey, last week, you guys were talking about
Notre Dame possibly, you know, being tired. Wasn't the case,
nore Name crush the Syracuse. It's this week the game
in l A where Notre Dame is gonna be tired.
(33:10):
This will be the week that showed up in the
first twenty minutes of the game. Norre Dame is downtown
now the first time all season r J nord Name
trailed by double digits at any point in any game.
So right now, Notre Dame in your power rankings, it's
nothing about anything other than who would be favored. Notre
Dame is where they're number four right now, so ahead
of him, Alabama, Clemson, George, Michigan, George, I know you've
(33:35):
been on Michigan, Michigan. You know all those Twitter people
you know, talking about horrible like telling me I need
to like go on the radio and like apologize the
horrorball And I said, listen, if he loses the Ohio State,
it's gonna be exactly like every other year, isn't it.
(33:56):
Well you just wait, Well, maybe next year, and saying
about Hardball, I mean, that's again my personal opinion, and
then Tolly beats Ohio State. In fact, I will not
stop that drop until hardball beats Ohio State, whenever that
may be. When we come back. We mentioned it. Monday
(34:17):
Night Football, Pheasant, I have a pick in a contest
that we're close to the lead, and if we win it,
we win seven hundred thousand dollars. He's r J. Bell,
I'm Jonas Knocks. This is the pregame show you always wanted,
and it's money making time next year on Fox Sports
Radio Vega. Be sure to catch live editions of Straight
(34:39):
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific.
I'm r J. Bell. We are Straight out of Vegas
and I'm Jonas Knocks, the voice of you the Fan,
brought to you by Geico, where fifteen minutes could save
you fifteen cent or more on car insurance. Guys, Monday
Night Football, we go to Houston, where the Texans in
a line that is actually dry, opt a half point.
(35:01):
Since the show started at seven at a six pm
Eastern time, the Texans are now just a three and
a half point favorite at home against the Tennessee Titans.
To me this game, and let's set this game up,
because what we got going on here is we have
a contest, the biggest contest in the world, five thousand
(35:22):
dollar entry, the Super Contest Gold. Now you might have
heard of the Super Contest because Fez pays me twenty bucks.
An mentioned to mention he is the only two time
Super Contest champion. He just threw me a hundred. I
can't mention it five times, but he is. And it's true.
(35:44):
I mean, think about that. This is the contest only
guy to win it twice. They started the years you
wanted it was to enter, right, Fez, and there was
hundreds of hundreds of people in it. They still have
that contest, but now they said, let's do like a
super level contest. That's five thousand enter. That's over three times, right.
(36:06):
I just did that real quick in my head. Well,
right now, we've got to pick in this game on Tennessee.
You might think, all right, that's it, turn off the radio.
No hold on, hold on contest. By definition, the line
comes out on Wednesday. You gotta bet into that line
by Saturday morning or pick into it five picks a
(36:29):
week by the way last week four and one, this
week three and one on the season, almost sick in
five games a week. Let me tell you, Fez, not likely.
We won't do this again next year, probably agreed, agreed,
But I gotta tell you, r J, no one has
been better at picking the white urns out of the
(36:52):
white marbles out of the urn on Friday night on
our final selections. When you go ahead and take out
the losers and put in the winter, yes, and and again.
I'll take some pride in that, no doubt, a little
bit of luck to all right, but think about that,
five picks a week, and that's what we've been doing.
We've got the Titans, and oh, by the but I'll
(37:12):
explain why you can't necessarily play the Titans, and Jonas
said it, but oh by the way, we're gonna announce this.
We're gonna this will be our We'll call this the
World Premier announcement. Though I actually did announce this on
the podcast, but I'm still gonna act like it's a
World premier. If we win the contests about seven, we
(37:41):
are going to spend twenty five thousand dollars on a
Super Bowl party, and all you are invited everyone on
Twitter at our Jane Vegas all the straight out of
Vegas listeners. Jonas, Yes, yes, I mean you probably won't
be behind the velvet rope but us, but you'll be
there with the Kager, the red cup, the whole thing
(38:04):
in the bag. I'm good with that. At least he's
on and we're gonna we don't know any details, right,
but what I promise you is we're gonna spend k
and we're gonna tell you where to sign up. We're
free to get in, but you'll have to know where
to sign up. We'll tell you on this show. And
if you're in Vegas or if you're thinking about coming
(38:26):
to the Super Bowl or coming to Vegas for it, right,
it's something to check out. And uh, we're us on.
Let's hope the karma helps us, Fez. Now here's why,
though you can't just beat Tennessee the line was six
and a half, it's three and a half. You've got
a theory, Fez, that you actually think the value might
(38:48):
be here on Houston at the current number. And remember, guys,
professional batters winners, they bet numbers. Recreational batters board don't win,
they bet teams you might say, RG, how can you
have Tendant well at six and a half, I can
have Tennessee at three and a half, I could have Houston.
(39:10):
Make your case. Yes, So based upon my power ratings,
I've got Houston being the better team. But it's close,
are j They're only about a point better? So if
I give them in general Houston, if you look at
their record, you think they're clearly better, but probably the
team with Washington and Washington lost obviously, where their record
and their truth strength is the most divergent. Exactly right,
(39:31):
Because Houston, although they're on a seven game win streak,
five of those seven games amazingly could have gone either way,
literally a coin flip, literally a coin flip. So because
of that, and all of them went their way. Yes,
so Houston a little bit overrated, So I only have
them being a point apart. Three for home field for
Houston would set this line at four. But this all
assumes that we have a healthy Mariota. I'm not lying.
(39:56):
Was off the board early in the week. Yeah, there
were major concerns about Mariota and even his status and
even if he played, how close to a percent he
was going to be in this game? So This is
an example, and let's think this through for twenty seconds.
If Mariotta is healthy, then if you bet on Houston,
(40:17):
you got a fifty fifty bat. You don't want a
fifty fifty bet because you're gonna get vigged out the
dastardly book. He's minus one ten right, leven to win ten,
but not so bad. And then some percentage of the
time Marriott is gonna be not a dent and that
Houston bet at three and a half is a wonderful bat,
(40:39):
exactly right. And remember that's what quick and at the
end of September, early October, Mariota wasn't a hundred percent.
He really was struggling. Yeah, he's a quarterback. His physicality
really matters. The thing that causes me pause on this,
and I'm sticking with my Tennessee only is I think
the lines move so aggressively. Somebody knows something, and what
(40:59):
they know is the quarterbacks. Okay for the Titans, the
odd couples. Next here on Fox Sports Radio, we are
straight out of Vegas back tomorrow, six Eastern time, three
o'clock Pacific. Right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports
Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot
(41:20):
com and within the I Heart Radio app search f
s R to listen live.
You know all those Twitter people you know, talking about
horrible like telling me I need to like go on
the radio and like apologize the horrorball. And I said, listen,
if he loses the Ohio State, it's gonna be exactly
like every other year, isn't it. Well you just wait,
Well maybe next year. And last thing about hardball, he smells.
(00:24):
You're listening to Fox Sports radios. You heard it. I'm
r J Live Coast to coast six o'clock eastern, three
o'clock here in Vegas. We've got an action packed Monday
for you. Chomping at the bit Thursday Friday. Yeah, I
was eating turkey, I was watching football, but I was thinking,
I'm not speaking to the straight out of Vegas audience.
(00:47):
I missed it. We're back full week almost every week
during the year. We we believe not in no days off,
but hardly any days off doesn't quite the ring Belichick's
did today recap NFL including Aaron Rodgers, including Baker Mayfield
(01:08):
in the colleges, the Ohio State Buckeys deserve a lot
of attention, and obviously Monday Night football and we've got
a big, big bet on Monday Night that we're gonna
share it to you and with you in studio with me,
NFL expert Steve Pezick, College expert Brad Powers. They're the
(01:32):
pros who know sports. Bettters listen for the money. Sports
fans listen to no more than their buddies. My personal promise,
we will deliver the Vegas truth to you. You can't
have pros without Joe's here. It is Joe and his knocks.
Thanks are j always good to be here as we
come be alive here on straight out of Vegas from
(01:52):
the Geico Fox Sports Radio studios, were fifteen minutes could
save you cent or more on car insurance. Visit geik
dot com for a free rate quote. We start with
the biggest game all weekend long in football and it's
in the college ranks where Ohio State blasted Michigan nine
(02:14):
at the Horseshoe in Columbus on Saturday. R J. What
is the Vagas perspective on the Buckeye's performance? Obviously impressive
and that's easy, right. What we try to do is
go beyond what's obvious, beyond the typical hot takes, cold
cash over hot takes. But in our production meeting, it
(02:35):
really shows you how complex this Ohio State win was
Brad Powers. Let's be honest, we have our choice for
the most part of any college expert we wanted in here.
I mean, think about it, the first sports batting show
on a major national network coast to coast. Who wouldn't
(02:57):
want to be here? I chose Brad Powers. There's a
reason he knows his stuff. Tell you this, though he's imperfect,
he doesn't like to admit that, but he's in Brad.
Would you agree, oh? Absolutely? Well, I don't think absolutely
is how you typically would respond, but fair enough. And
(03:18):
it goes to show you how complex handicap and can be.
And that's why it's like the famous line from the
World Poker Tour it takes a few minutes to learn
and a lifetime to master. Hold him a right, great line.
Mike Sexton came up with that line. But I think
(03:40):
handicapping is the same way you take am not saying
you should do this with your seventh grade son, No, no, no,
but an average intelligence eighth grader, seventh grader could understand
a point spread pretty quickly. All right, he's probably that's
something you gotta let him kind of learn on his own.
May but he would understand it, but I wouldn't want
(04:02):
to be bet in the picks of a seventh grader.
This is complex. Here's I think a great example Brad
coming into the game. Now, let's caveat this. The line
was drastically out of whack. It would seem Ohow State
was a four point under doctor a game time as
(04:24):
with four points of home field advantage for the Buckeyes,
which I think is fair considering it was a big game.
That means Michigan was supposed to be eight points better
now starting the season. O, how State was supposed to
be about five points better, right because the line was nine.
If you were to bet Ohio State Michigan early, the
(04:45):
line was not so the idea of five points of
advantage plus home field equals nine, okay, and now it's
eight the other way. The idea of these teams somehow
changed by let me see in points. I don't think
anyone could have really thought that was the case. The
(05:07):
fact the line was there, I guess, but it didn't
make a lot of sense. Oh wait a minute, fest,
who'd you have in the game? So explain to me
make your case for that handicap. I got fooled by
the Michigan overall power rating when they're playing a team
like Indiana, middle of the road type of team, upper due.
(05:29):
Michigan's a great bully, and their power rating definitely went
up almost two touchdowns over the course of the year.
To hold on a second, Michigan's power rating went up
to touchdowns. Not quite that. But so when you said
that it was what why? Because they're able to beat
teams by third I understand why you upgrade And why
(05:51):
did you say two touchdowns over I rounded up from town. Yeah,
you can't understand. So the power ratings went up, Yes,
so they could beat a bad team instead of beating
them by ten, they could beat them by twenty or more. However,
that power rating does not apply clearly when Michigan has
to play a fast, elite team. But you thought it did.
(06:15):
I was fooled by the overall increase in the Michigan
power rating, And yes, I thought I did, and I
made a mistake. Yeah, I mean, obviously all you can
do is win at the time. Is the goal? Right
for a professional better If you want to mansion in
a yacht, you just gotta hit I don't think I don't, Brad,
(06:37):
I mean you talked to a lot of pros in town.
Was all the pros other than Fez on Ohio State. No,
there's a lot of Michigan people. So the assumption was
just fundamentally, this Michigan team is just so much better
than we expected. I think one of the advantages that
at least some of the pros thought they significantly had
was that Michigan defensive front against Ohio State offense of
(07:00):
line that's struggled most of the season. That was one
that they pointed to. Yeah, but again, it's back to
the and I do think it's such a powerful concept.
It's back to the idea of what's the baseline for
the team, Meaning, if you just look at the last
two or three years, what is the baseline for the team?
(07:22):
And how much can that really change? So like who,
it's one thing in the NBA, if Lebron comes into
the Lakers, it's a whole different story, right, Lebron's in
with the Lakers, and it's a whole different team. You
can't look at last year and say, wait, they were
only the Lakers are only favored by this much. That
doesn't matter. It's a whole different team. But how many
(07:43):
you know, Michigan had how many returning starters? About four?
All right, so four team returning starters and then eight
players are so that weren't good enough to play last year, right,
Usually it's not gonna be the true freshman to come
in and really or any true freshman that are true
difference makers on Michigan, no other than the quarterbacks. Shade
(08:04):
Patterson was the major upgrade for Michigan. Really, not after
watching the Ohio State game. Now, I mean maybe maybe,
but so really you just got down to it. It
was the idea of fourteen people getting a year older,
so they're gonna get better, right, And then the idea
of people who weren't good enough to start last year
(08:25):
now becoming good enough to start. That can't be the difference.
I Hey, that guy that didn't start last year, he's
gonna make Michigan better than Ohio State. That seems crazy.
And then the idea of this quarterback coming in, which
could be a three or four five point change. Wouldn't
be uh fourteen point change, but it could be a
three or four point change. Now, what's changing on how State? Right? O?
(08:49):
How State lost about the same number of players. Yeah,
they had about thirteen starters coming back, and how State
was better last year? You would think the players replacing
those starters, we're better than Michigan's. Ohio States has a
better has had better recruiting classes in the mission, and
it's not really close, right, Okay, So what was the scenario?
(09:11):
The only thing it could have been was distraction? Was
this Buckeye team, for whatever reason, doesn't get up even
in spots you think they would, you know, like almost
like the Steelers, right, the Steelers. We keep preaching again
and again that oh, you feel like after almost losing
(09:34):
to Jacksonville, Pittsburgh should be up, But no, they need
like double double bonus effort to really need to be up.
And we really saw that on defense, and defense requires
the most effort. Let's be frank here, And when we
saw the Nebraska game and the Maryland game, that defense
was just flat as a pancake in those games. It's
a good point. But here's the thing that I don't get.
(09:56):
How the wise guys could have been on mission and
the line was right if o how State was exactly
what they performed on the field, Meaning if this was
just a computer and only data we had was the scores,
on these ten games or whatever prior you would say, Okay,
this Michigan team's eight points better, but there had to
(10:19):
be a significant material chance that ohow, State wasn't playing
as well as you would expect because of something other
than they all got hooked on heroin or something crazy
that would make him where they're not as good, right
they all started drinking thirty beers a day or who
knows what there the Achilles got caught at night, but
(10:41):
no one knows. I mean, how could you get that
much worse? So it was like coming into the game
to me and we had this exact handicap right here
on straight out of Vegas. Coming into the game, it
was a matter of okay, if O how States is bad,
the line is right, and for how State isn't this bad?
And it's more about boy, they just weren't motivated. This
(11:03):
feels like the game they're gonna be motivated over all others.
Thus that percentage of the time, it's gonna be a
heck of a bat at plus four. So now straight
out of Vegas, r J bel last thing on this game,
Fez is making a very interesting point. Horrible pick, horrible,
but an interesting point. It's not just how good is
(11:28):
this team? On one hand, Michigan is how good are
they when they can enforce their will? And how good
are they when they can't? All right physically? Number two
for Michigan, how good are they on offense when the
defense is a normal defense where Patterson speed can make
(11:48):
three or four big plays a game, versus against the
rare defenses or how States one of them that has
so much team speed on defense that running quarterbacks not
going to be as to give a problem. They can
still make some plays. But what percentage of the Michigan
offense this year, even in let's say the semi competitive games,
so not when they were favored by thirty plus, favored
(12:10):
in the teens, you know, against what were they against
Penn State? Ten like against Penn State or teams like
Penn State? Shay Patterson was what percentage of the offense
the plays that matter? I would say the offense? Yeah,
And it was usually because he was faster, right, yeah,
I can make plays scrambling obviously, and that opened up
(12:30):
the passing game for him. So the theory is Ohio
State's gonna stop that. And that's what we saw. So
Michigan three power ratings when they can be a bully
when they can't. And then you also, I guess you
could look at it as four is yes or no?
Does the team have team speed? To start Patterson with
Ohio State, there's two power ratings. This is them in
(12:51):
almost every situation, which is gonna be a lot worse
than you might think. And then finally, this is them
when they really care and they're about as good as
they should be on paper. Then, which is one of
the best teams in the country. Is that a fair
rapp up, totally fair top three talent for OHIU State,
top three head coach. They clearly showed that on Saturday.
(13:13):
And what's fascinating is against Northwestern. I probably I'm gonna
lean early towards north what's the early line on that?
Favored by fourteen, I'm gonna lean towards Northwestern because even
though it's the Big Ten title, even though they want margin,
I think they're gonna just shrug and eat their hot pockets,
play their PlayStation and be Okay, hey we showed Michigan something,
(13:34):
didn't we But if they do get in, if they
do get into the playoffs, those buck Eyes, you know
they're gonna be motivated. I'm not saying they're gonna win,
but I'm saying they're gonna look a lot better than
they did most of this season. When we come back,
we're gonna discuss Aaron Rodgers and just how far he
(13:54):
has fallen. That's coming up next. He's r J. Bell
and I'm Jonas Knocks, and this is the pregame show
you always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Be
sure to catch live editions of Straight out of Vegas
weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox
Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. This program
(14:17):
brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Last year, over three
million drivers switched to Progressive. Call one eight hundred Progressive
or visit Progressive dot com today and find out if
you could say. I'm r J. Bow, we are Straight
out of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knocks. The voice of
you the fan coming up here in just a couple
of moments. It is a bad situation for a Super
(14:39):
Bowl champion. We'll get to it here momentarily. Here on
Fox Sports Radio. We love bringing the fun of Vegas
to you each day, straight from the strip. Right now,
sixty three degrees on the strip. Neon is sparkling like
a Christmas tree. I'll tell you this, Jonas, there's advantages
(14:59):
the being on in the weekend your show. What weekend
shift do you do? I do weekend overnights, Friday and
Saturday overnights, and then I worked Sunday Night with uh
get the Get the Sound already, Brady Quinn. So so,
first off, it's wonderful that you're keeping your energy up
on the weekend for your daytime gig. But but what
(15:24):
I'll say is this this time last year, you know,
our producer who is not with Fox ay More Michael
at the time, said oh yeah, the bosses are saying
we gotta play Christmas music. I'm like, wait a minute.
Straight out of Vegas is rock and roll. We no
Christmas And I'm like, listen, let's try to do our
music and see if anyone notices. Now, no one noticed
(15:46):
the whole month. I have a feeling if we somehow
didn't play Christmas music, jon Is, they would notice here
at six East. Yeah, I believe. So it's a much
bigger audience, a lot more notoriety. All right, Archie, Let's
get the Sunday night football where the Vikings took care
of the Packers twenty four to seventeen in Minnesota. What
(16:07):
is the Vegas takeaway from the now Owen six on
the road Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Well, one
end is and we've been talking about this for years.
Green Bay has the biggest disparity and performance between home
field and away games. Why well, Lambo is one of
(16:28):
the best home fields and maybe the best. To me,
it's the most consistent. Who's the best right now? Fez
Saints in the mix home field advantage. Seattle's in the mix.
But when Seattle is not winning, the home fields good
but not great. Right, It's been a while since the
(16:51):
Seahawks weren't generally winning the Saints. When they're not winning,
that home field gets to be about average. What's the
iver crowd enthusiasm when the crowd's rocking and the noise
in Seattle? The noise in New Orleans is a humongous advantage,
(17:11):
humongous for the Saints and the Seahawks and Lambeau. The
noise is nice to me. It's the quirky playing field. Yeah,
it's grass, but also it's at slit grasses. You hear
all the time. The struggles on Lambeau surface for teams
there are timing pattern teams, teams not in the division,
(17:33):
so they don't play there very often. And to me,
if I could have any home field would be the
one that's consistent like Lambeau. And I've read a lot
about the defenders on the rush on Rogers. They complain
how with that grasping slick they just feel like they
can't get any traction and they can't. That's a good
point because the flip side is Rogers has been one
(17:55):
of the most mobile quarterbacks in the NFL during his prime.
Not the type that's gonna run too much, but the
type that, hey, it's he's driving for a fewer goal
field goal. It's third and eight and you almost sack him,
but he scrambles for twelve yards. Those are the backbreakers.
Those are the real backbreakers. So one almost like Larry
(18:20):
Bird on the parquet floor. You've got a guy that
knows how to take advantage of the quirky home and
it's a negative for the defense, positive for Aaron Rodgers
because he's used to it like Bird was on those
dead spots we used to hear about right, So to me,
(18:40):
it makes sense if you do the math. Last seven years,
the prime of Aaron Rodgers career. I think it's fair
to say the difference between green Bay at home in
green Bay on the road just point differential, and over
seven years, the strength of schedule is gonna even out.
You're gonna play good teams on the road, back teams
on the road. Green Bay is ten and a half
(19:03):
points different They're ten and a half points better at home.
No other teams even close. Like number two is like
eight points. The average team is six. Well, think about it.
Guy's home field advantage is three. If it's Pittsburgh at
home against Baltimore, Pittsburgh's three. If it's at Baltimore Baltimore three.
(19:23):
If the teams are even, well that's just let me
do that yet six points. So green Bay's home field
is ten and a half. It's a lot more than six.
Some of that I think is Lambeau, and some of
it is teams that have a great home field naturally
become overrated. Imagine, and let's use basketball as the analogy.
(19:49):
Imagine that at our gym, the hoop on our side
of the court. Let's say you didn't flip courts. It's
one of the reasons they flip courts right. They don't
want any shenanigans with the hoops. Back in the day,
Let's say our hoop was just like five millimeters bigger.
You couldn't quite see it with your eye, but it
makes a difference. Maybe you're making three more shots of game, well,
(20:12):
six points or so, all right, if it's two pointers,
you would be overrated because you have this advantage that
isn't obvious that other teams don't have. When you go
on the road, most of the time, they're gonna look
at your blended stats. But those blended stats are deceiving
because half those games, in the long run, you've got
this unfair, this extreme advantage. Green Bay has an extreme
(20:35):
advantage at home because the Lambo. I don't think it's
a sign that the Green Bay's necessarily bad on the road.
I think it's Green Bay's overrated overall because they have
an inordinate advantage at home. Agreed. And I think what
sums it up the best is look at Aaron Rodgers.
What past does he throw better than anybody else. It's
got to be that back shoulder fade pass where he
(20:57):
just throws a wide receiver open who's blanketed by the cornerback.
On slick grass, the corner can't reverse and never get
to it. But on the road, on a good turf,
it's a much more dangerous past. He doesn't throw it
as much. Steve Fezzy, that's a great point. It's not
just defenders aren't used to it. Russia, the past, rush,
et cetera. It's not just Rogers is they're building plays
(21:20):
around it a right. Imagine again, a basketball team that
played outdoors, what would they do? Pound it down low?
Pound it down low? Well, if you were a team
or I think a good example is teams have played
altitude they in in in UH football, those teams tend
to really focus on cardiovascular health, being in shape. And
(21:44):
what do they do. They tend to play fast. Remember Denver,
it's no coincidence. Let's move to the NBA. The Nuggets
have often played fast because they figure that's going to
be an advantage at altitude relative to the opposition. And
both Utah and Denver are masters in the second half
when they play a team off back to backs to
just run them right out of the arena. So Green Bay,
(22:06):
I'm r J. Bell straight out of Vegas recapping the
Packers in their woes. Green Bay is a team that's
getting There's a lot of talk now about how bad
they are on the road. I think it's more they're
just so good at home, they're naturally gonna be overrated
on the road. But here's what I know about Aaron Rodgers.
Yards per attempt is a maybe if I could have
(22:27):
one stat, not an index like quarterback rating that it's
all kind of stats combined, but one plane. I can
calculate this with my calculator stat yards per attempt for
a quarterback would be my stat. What what would be yours? Fez,
that's my number one. I'm not saying you're copying, all right,
I'm just saying awesome. I'm not saying I'm just saying,
(22:50):
so the fact of the matter is, to me, if
you look at the yards per tempt, Rogers during his
prime prime was the best in the history of the NFL.
Rogers more recently has been below average in the NFL. Now,
So think about that best in the NFL now. In
(23:11):
the preseason, I said this on Straight out of Vegas.
Now was on the weekend, right, so no Christmas music,
And I was saying this and I and I did
it on all my national and you know, all my
big hits and everyone, you know, my weekly radio hits,
and everyone's saying you're crazy. I'm like, well, the numbers
say this. So to me. Right now, I think it's
(23:33):
fair to say Aaron Rodgers is still a top, top,
top quarterback. Aaron Rodgers today in two thousand eighteen is
not an all time great quarterback. And we saw that
at the end of the Viking game. Frankly, he missed
two wide open receivers that cost the Packers the cover
(23:53):
last night. Right now, you gotta play one game against
the Aliens for the planet. Where's an Rogers at on
your list of quarterbacks? At the very top? You would
you think Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the
NFL today, Brady Mahomes, Rogers throw Blump Breeze. I'd put
Breeze number one, Okay. So it all it took was
(24:13):
me asking the question a second time, real real close. Now,
if you would have said Rogers again, I would say,
but fest let me ask you this. Remember, it's where
the planet's sake. You'd be like, you know, maybe maybe now,
last thing on the Packers, what's the motivational issue. We've
all been here in whispers about the coach McCarthy some discontent.
(24:37):
Now they've lost so many games in a row. Now,
even if they make the playoffs, the Packers, it's hard
to imagine them going far. Does that decrease Rogers enthusiasm
just a smidge. I'm not saying he's not gonna try
to win, but as he maybe eat that pizza on
Tuesday night instead of going for an extra jog, I
think maybe. And I'm looking to still fade the Packers.
(25:00):
In just one minute, we're gonna talk about the biggest
stories in college football that's coming up next. But for
all the latest from around the world of sports, it's
Dan Bayer. Cincinnati Bengals are gonna start Jeff Driscoll at
quarterback in Week thirteen against the Broncos because Andy Dalton
is done for this season. Bengals placed Dalton on injured
reserve today with a thumb injury. The NFL network says
(25:20):
Dalton tour ligaments in his thumb and yesterday's lost to
the Cleveland Browns, there's another quarterback change in the NFL.
This was nothing to do with injuries. Blake Bortles benched
in favor of Cody Kessler. Kessler and the Jaguars will
take on the Colts in Week thirteen. Jaguars made another move,
firing offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett earlier today. Some good news
(25:40):
maybe a sigh of relief for the l A Chargers.
Running Back Melvin Gordon is considered week to week with
a knee injury. Suffered an m c L injury at
his right knee and yesterday's match up against the Cardinals.
Head coach and that Gordon said today it's not likely
he'll play Sunday night against Pittsburgh, but the team does
expect Gordon to return at some point prior to the
end of the regular season. Colts tout and Jack Doyle's
(26:03):
season is over he's out because of a kidney injury.
And Broncos tout and Jeff Higerman has done for the
season with broken ribs that are bruised lung. Following yesterday's
win against Pittsburgh, Titans and Texans tonight eight fifteen Eastern Time,
and the NBA Pacers got Victor Oladipo's gonna miss their
game against the Jazz with his sore knee conjegut the
new number one ranked team in college hoops, edging out
Kansas for the top spot in the AP Top twenty
(26:25):
five Bowl, and finally third base. But Josh Donaldson has
sounded a one year deal with twenty three million dollars
with the Braves, who also signed free agent catcher Brian McCann.
Back to you, thanks, Dan, straight out of Vegas comes
to you alive here from the Geico Fox Sports Radio studios,
where it's easy to say fifteen per cent or more
on car insurance with Geico Go to Geico Comic Call
eight hundred nine seven Otto. The only hard part figuring
(26:46):
out which way is easier. Coming up twelve minutes from
now here on Fox Sports Radio, we will have best
bets and a look ahead to Monday Night Football. I
am Jonas Knox, the voice of You the Fan. He
is the voice of AGA U R. J. Bell. Yeah,
and we were in a contest seven hundred thousand dollars
cash winner, take a goal, and we actually have a
(27:07):
pick on the Monday night game coming up, As Jonas said,
Jeff Driscoll, if I have a bet on a team,
about the last thing I want to hear is Jeff
driscoll was your starting quarterback, Brad Yeah, you being a
college expert really benefit in the NFL because these especially
(27:28):
the younger players, and there's more emphasis than ever on
young players in the NFL. It really is hollowed out
the league. You're either a superstar or you're young on
a rookie deal or a cheap second deal. What did
you see from Drisco in college? Quickly overrated at Florida.
Probably didn't get great offensive coaching. That's when Will must
Champ was the head coach at Florida. Not known for
(27:49):
an offensive Mine just go got beat out. Ended up
transferring to Louisiana Tech, where he had a solid season.
But keep in mind Louisiana Tech is Conference USA and
Jeff Drisco was a borderline five star talent coming out
of high school, so just talent alone, he was able
to have a good senior season. My favorite Law Tech
quarterback Terry Bradshaw, without a without a question, you know
(28:10):
he was a javelin champion. I did not know that
you ever see a picture of me when I was
like tanning my little twelve jersey. Something to see Fez
we even get all right, I'll take it, Fez. You
saw the game with Cincinnati. You thought the team responded
(28:31):
well to drist school. Yeah, so Cleveland is trucking Cincinnati
winning by twenty plus. Dalton goes out with a hand injury,
and I was shocked how the Bengals sideline really responded
positively to Driscoll coming in. I tell you, Jonas, that's
the bar, right. I used to watch the old Bob
Costs the show. Later it was like, just sit down
with famous people and talk for a while. It was
(28:52):
after Letterman a bunch of them on YouTube. When someone
said something funny enough, the guys running the cameras were
laughing and you could hear it echo, that's funny. So
that's my bar. That's my bar. Just so you know, guys,
it was a busy weekend in college football. We had
an injury to a star quarterback at UCF. We've talked
(29:14):
about Ohio State, Michigan, r J. Your biggest takeaway on
the college football weekend in Vegas was what Well, I
lean on Brad for this stuff, but you know, I
think Jonas, you're right. Let's start with Central Florida, a
team that there was a lot of talk. Hey, they
were ahead of Ohio State, quarterback goes down, looks like
he could be a career threatener. Obviously we wish the
(29:35):
best for the player. How at the college level, how
many points per game? Does this uh absence downgrade Central Florida.
So the quarterback name is Mackensey Meltain, a two year starter.
He started for all of these wins with the exception
of just one in this current win streak for Central Florida.
He's worth the NFL typically three points. This quarterback at
(29:56):
UC mckensey Meltin worth about six points significant loss for
the night. So Alabama if they were to played Central Florida,
we were showing how extreme it would be with and
and by the way, when I don't pronounce a player's name,
you can just smoothly go in and say is that
You don't have to say, well, the name of that player,
(30:16):
but you know it might you know, I'm gonna point
out the fact are you didn't pronounce his name the
name of that player. You don't need to do that,
just say that. Let's try it again. So the quarterback
for Central Florida, if he were playing against Alabama, what
would the line be. And if he weren't playing, what
would the line be. Yeah, without Mackenzie Melton Alabama. Yeah,
(30:37):
without McKenzie Melton at quarterback, Alabama would be closing in
on a thirty one point favorite over Central Florida. Thirty one. Wow,
it's all gonna happen. No not well, let me throw
this scenaria real quick, and we'll go through some college
football playoff scenarios tomorrow when the rankings before the selection show.
(30:58):
What if what happens if Okla him on, Ohio State
lose Washington State, not Washington State, just gotta beat by Washington.
Oh my gosh, I forgot Georgia, Georgia if they lose
the Alabama two losses Georgia, No, I don't think so
because they don't have any big wins to put someone
in there. Thanks fast, you know what we can do.
(31:19):
We'll just any time we talk college football from here,
we'll just take that drop and it's like, Brad, what
do you think about this? And this and maybe this?
Let's hear we're fast. We're FASTA has to say, well,
Pressica gotta put someone in there like it just that
would be it? Who do you think, bro? If you
had to be Let's assume Ohio State loses. Let's assume
(31:42):
Oklahoma loses. I think they probably put in I mean,
let's think who's the two loss teams that would be
in the mix. Right, So Central Florida with zero losses
would be in the mix. Um, Texas would have to
be in the mix. Right, all three losses? They have three? Yeah,
that's huh. So Georgia, you're saying, so Clinton, no one
(32:06):
in the A c C. Holy cownt fest might be right.
You gotta put someone in there. Maybe maybe it's Georgia.
What do you think? Um? I would lean towards Georgia
about the way this committee works. They'll probably put L
s U in there because after two losses, they were
ranked ahead of teams with no losses in one loss,
(32:27):
So who the hell knows with that committee? Boy, imagine
another year with the SEC. Huh. Maybe Michigan, Brad, you've
been big on mission. They have two losses real quick.
Notre Dame didn't look great. How are you because Collins like, oh,
it's a Northern team, they're gonna get beat bad. How
(32:48):
much of a downgrade for the fighting ours? Really no
down grade for me, believe it or not. Uh? And
I think this is when we've been banging on Fest here.
Fest had a great handicapped concerning Notre Dame last week.
He's said, Hey, last week, you guys were talking about
Notre Dame possibly, you know, being tired. Wasn't the case,
nore Name crush the Syracuse. It's this week the game
in l A where Notre Dame is gonna be tired.
(33:10):
This will be the week that showed up in the
first twenty minutes of the game. Norre Dame is downtown
now the first time all season r J nord Name
trailed by double digits at any point in any game.
So right now, Notre Dame in your power rankings, it's
nothing about anything other than who would be favored. Notre
Dame is where they're number four right now, so ahead
of him, Alabama, Clemson, George, Michigan, George, I know you've
(33:35):
been on Michigan, Michigan. You know all those Twitter people
you know, talking about horrible like telling me I need
to like go on the radio and like apologize the
horrorball And I said, listen, if he loses the Ohio State,
it's gonna be exactly like every other year, isn't it.
(33:56):
Well you just wait, Well, maybe next year, and saying
about Hardball, I mean, that's again my personal opinion, and
then Tolly beats Ohio State. In fact, I will not
stop that drop until hardball beats Ohio State, whenever that
may be. When we come back. We mentioned it. Monday
(34:17):
Night Football, Pheasant, I have a pick in a contest
that we're close to the lead, and if we win it,
we win seven hundred thousand dollars. He's r J. Bell,
I'm Jonas Knocks. This is the pregame show you always wanted,
and it's money making time next year on Fox Sports
Radio Vega. Be sure to catch live editions of Straight
(34:39):
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific.
I'm r J. Bell. We are Straight out of Vegas
and I'm Jonas Knocks, the voice of you the Fan,
brought to you by Geico, where fifteen minutes could save
you fifteen cent or more on car insurance. Guys, Monday
Night Football, we go to Houston, where the Texans in
a line that is actually dry, opt a half point.
(35:01):
Since the show started at seven at a six pm
Eastern time, the Texans are now just a three and
a half point favorite at home against the Tennessee Titans.
To me this game, and let's set this game up,
because what we got going on here is we have
a contest, the biggest contest in the world, five thousand
(35:22):
dollar entry, the Super Contest Gold. Now you might have
heard of the Super Contest because Fez pays me twenty bucks.
An mentioned to mention he is the only two time
Super Contest champion. He just threw me a hundred. I
can't mention it five times, but he is. And it's true.
(35:44):
I mean, think about that. This is the contest only
guy to win it twice. They started the years you
wanted it was to enter, right, Fez, and there was
hundreds of hundreds of people in it. They still have
that contest, but now they said, let's do like a
super level contest. That's five thousand enter. That's over three times, right.
(36:06):
I just did that real quick in my head. Well,
right now, we've got to pick in this game on Tennessee.
You might think, all right, that's it, turn off the radio.
No hold on, hold on contest. By definition, the line
comes out on Wednesday. You gotta bet into that line
by Saturday morning or pick into it five picks a
(36:29):
week by the way last week four and one, this
week three and one on the season, almost sick in
five games a week. Let me tell you, Fez, not likely.
We won't do this again next year, probably agreed, agreed,
But I gotta tell you, r J, no one has
been better at picking the white urns out of the
(36:52):
white marbles out of the urn on Friday night on
our final selections. When you go ahead and take out
the losers and put in the winter, yes, and and again.
I'll take some pride in that, no doubt, a little
bit of luck to all right, but think about that,
five picks a week, and that's what we've been doing.
We've got the Titans, and oh, by the but I'll
(37:12):
explain why you can't necessarily play the Titans, and Jonas
said it, but oh by the way, we're gonna announce this.
We're gonna this will be our We'll call this the
World Premier announcement. Though I actually did announce this on
the podcast, but I'm still gonna act like it's a
World premier. If we win the contests about seven, we
(37:41):
are going to spend twenty five thousand dollars on a
Super Bowl party, and all you are invited everyone on
Twitter at our Jane Vegas all the straight out of
Vegas listeners. Jonas, Yes, yes, I mean you probably won't
be behind the velvet rope but us, but you'll be
there with the Kager, the red cup, the whole thing
(38:04):
in the bag. I'm good with that. At least he's
on and we're gonna we don't know any details, right,
but what I promise you is we're gonna spend k
and we're gonna tell you where to sign up. We're
free to get in, but you'll have to know where
to sign up. We'll tell you on this show. And
if you're in Vegas or if you're thinking about coming
(38:26):
to the Super Bowl or coming to Vegas for it, right,
it's something to check out. And uh, we're us on.
Let's hope the karma helps us, Fez. Now here's why,
though you can't just beat Tennessee the line was six
and a half, it's three and a half. You've got
a theory, Fez, that you actually think the value might
(38:48):
be here on Houston at the current number. And remember, guys,
professional batters winners, they bet numbers. Recreational batters board don't win,
they bet teams you might say, RG, how can you
have Tendant well at six and a half, I can
have Tennessee at three and a half, I could have Houston.
(39:10):
Make your case. Yes, So based upon my power ratings,
I've got Houston being the better team. But it's close,
are j They're only about a point better? So if
I give them in general Houston, if you look at
their record, you think they're clearly better, but probably the
team with Washington and Washington lost obviously, where their record
and their truth strength is the most divergent. Exactly right,
(39:31):
Because Houston, although they're on a seven game win streak,
five of those seven games amazingly could have gone either way,
literally a coin flip, literally a coin flip. So because
of that, and all of them went their way. Yes,
so Houston a little bit overrated, So I only have
them being a point apart. Three for home field for
Houston would set this line at four. But this all
assumes that we have a healthy Mariota. I'm not lying.
(39:56):
Was off the board early in the week. Yeah, there
were major concerns about Mariota and even his status and
even if he played, how close to a percent he
was going to be in this game? So This is
an example, and let's think this through for twenty seconds.
If Mariotta is healthy, then if you bet on Houston,
(40:17):
you got a fifty fifty bat. You don't want a
fifty fifty bet because you're gonna get vigged out the
dastardly book. He's minus one ten right, leven to win ten,
but not so bad. And then some percentage of the
time Marriott is gonna be not a dent and that
Houston bet at three and a half is a wonderful bat,
(40:39):
exactly right. And remember that's what quick and at the
end of September, early October, Mariota wasn't a hundred percent.
He really was struggling. Yeah, he's a quarterback. His physicality
really matters. The thing that causes me pause on this,
and I'm sticking with my Tennessee only is I think
the lines move so aggressively. Somebody knows something, and what
(40:59):
they know is the quarterbacks. Okay for the Titans, the
odd couples. Next here on Fox Sports Radio, we are
straight out of Vegas back tomorrow, six Eastern time, three
o'clock Pacific. Right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports
Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot
(41:20):
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