September 29, 2022 • 36 mins
Brian Noe delivers a special early look at betting opportunities this weekend in football with two of the sharpest minds in the business! Pickswise Lead Betting Analyst Jared Smith joins Brian to break down this weekend in college football and handicap each of the 5 ranked vs. ranked games this Saturday. Sports Handicapper from KrackWins.com Bill Krackomberger chats with Brian about this weekend in the NFL. Plus, Krack gives a hot pick for Thursday's matchup between the Bengals and Dolphins to help get your football weekend started off right!
New users, Download the Bet MGM app today and use code COUNTDOWN for a special offer.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Are you to college fans. Welcome to the biggest tailgate
party in the nation, Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by beat MGM, the gig of sports book. We're
setting you up with the information you need to watch
(00:21):
your team win. Let's go. We're here to break it
all down. Let's go, Let's go. This is Fox Sports
Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian No. Everybody, welcome in.
It's Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
(00:45):
Podcast addition over here, I want to welcome in Jared Smith.
Will be talking college football with him. He's our lead
betting analysts from picks wise dot com. Also, we will
have Bill Krackenberger, who is our NFL guy, and Bill
he is a sports handicapper from crack wins dot com.
We want to remind you that new users download the
(01:08):
bet MGM app today and use code countdown for a
special offer. That's code countdown in the bet MGM app. Alright, so,
first off college football. Jared Smith from picks wise dot com.
Wanna welcome him in here. Jared Everything good Man, did
you make a fortune last week in college football betting wise.
Oh man, you know, I'll be honest. The college football
(01:30):
game it hasn't been great this year. I've kind of
been hovering around the five mark. It's been some bad beat,
some good beats, some volatile results. I'm I never get
to concern with my win loss record until about mid season.
At this point, we're still kind of figuring out what
these teams are. We're trying to make good bets every week.
We're trying to have fun too, obviously, um but nothing
(01:53):
to write home about with the results. But listen, you're
only as good as the last bet you make. So
we move forward. We absolutely moved forward. And what a
slate we have here. Man. We've got five ranked versus
ranked matchups this weekend in college football. That's huge, and
there there's some really good matchups where there's just one
team that's ranked against an unranked opponent. But we'll start
(02:14):
with the how do you say it? Creme de la creme?
Is that right? I think it's the first. I normally
go like apple cinnamon, neutral grain bars, So I fancy that.
How about this number ten NC State against number five Clemson.
This blows my mind, Jared, this is the first time
(02:38):
that NC State, who is in the top ten will
face another a P top ten team, So the first
time ever they've that's like they've had Philip Rivers there
is the first time ever they've done that. But this
is a new ground being broken by the Wolfpack over
here and d j Ui ungle Alay, what a performance
(02:58):
last week against Way. We've got the line at six
and a half right now at bet MGM. Clemson has favored.
What are your first thoughts on this matchup, Jared, Yeah,
Clemson's favored, as they expect to be. Um looks like
the line. I'll be honest, I haven't seen a ton
of movement off of the key number of seven much
this week. It's kind of been hovering in that range.
You can still get Clemson like six and a half
(03:21):
if you'd like. I see a couple of shops with seven.
So not a ton of movement in this game to
speak of. And I'll be honest, I think that's because
of what's looming up and down the Eastern Seaboard this week.
And it's kind of ironic. There are a ton of
high profile games that are right in the path of
Hurricane ian this week. Very difficult to handicap what the
(03:41):
conditions are gonna be like. If it's just rain, not
as impactful. If it's rain plus wind, good luck throwing
the football. Now, if you recalled, these two teams were
very highly ranked, not top ten, but highly ranked back
in They also played in a hurricane. It was a
ten three win Frenzy State. So it kind of funny
how things come full circle here. You're right, d J.
(04:02):
You played great against wake The Clemson defense did not.
That's the part of this handicap that I'm very fascinated with. Clemson,
very good against the run, hasn't been so great against
the past. They were a little banged up in the
secondary in that game against Wake. Um hearing positive things
for those players this week, but as you know, injuries
in the college football world also very difficult to handicap
(04:24):
because we don't get a ton of information. If those
key secondary pieces come back for Clemson, obviously that's a
positive for them. That might push this line to seven.
But when you look at Devin Leary hasn't been that
impressive so far. Five point three yards per tempt against
Texas Tech, just seven point three against Yukon the one
thing I will say for Devon Learry have a hundred
and forty one graded quarterbacks on play action. If you're
(04:47):
Dave Dorian, who was a defensive minded conservative head coach,
and you're looking at a really good quarterback in play action,
not so great straight up passing, and you've got a
defense and Clemson that might be a little vulnerable in
the back, I'm gonna want to take advantage of that
play action early downs, pushed the ball down the field.
See if we can't take a lead and make d
J you match you. Um, But to me, that's the
(05:10):
that's the edge in this game. If Dave dorn And
and NC State's offense break tendencies and they go play
action on early downs, they might have an edge here.
But I'll be honest, I'd be surprised if Clemson didn't
win this game. Yeah. I keep looking at the total here, Jared,
where it's forty two and a half at bet MGM.
So if you're thinking about the over, I think you
would consider last week where you mentioned Clemson's corners against
(05:32):
Wake were freaking brutal, just decrepibly awful. But and then
you also had DJ you played great five touchdown passes.
He was unbelievable. So you might start thinking, hey, over
forty two and a half, that's not that high of
a total. But I love how NC States defense is played.
And then he consider the weather factor. It gets a
(05:53):
little tricky when you consider all sides. M hm, yeah,
the weather. And I'll be honest if let's say that,
so this is it's a really I don't envy um
bookmakers this week, even though they're the ones that are
holding the cards most weeks. This is a tough week
for them because they could be very wrong about a
lot of these totals. If the weather isn't as bad
(06:13):
as people are predicting, and the only people wrong more
than handicappers on a weekly basis or meteorologist, there's a
very good chance that the weather isn't as bad as
we're hearing, and things clear up, the hurricane goes another
rector whatever. There's still several days until Saturday. I wouldn't
be surprised if the weather isn't as bad as people think.
And if that's the case, well, then yeah, this total
(06:34):
is way too low at forty two. What do we Okay,
let's shift to another one. It's a Great SEC matchup
number seven, Kentucky at number fourteen Old Miss Old Miss
seven point favorites total if you want to pick at that,
fifty three and a half. We're talking Noon Eastern. Let's
get after it right away. What do you see in
this one? Yeah, first time both teams ranked in this
(06:56):
matchup since nine. No hog about history. Um, Kentucky is
looking for back to back five and oh starts for
the first time in over seventy years. And again this
they were a good team last year and they're you know,
undefeated so far this year. Oh, this is one twelve
straight in Oxford. So there's some conflicting trends here to
go at. Chris Rodriguez will return for Kentucky. That's huge
(07:18):
four game suspension. He's back much needed boost to the
running game. And I think another thing he is good
at that people don't always talking about with running backs
is the past blocking that running backs can provide. Sometimes.
Will Levis needs it because he's kind of been at
this season and the Kentucky offensive line has been even worse.
No surprise, their offensive line coach Eric Wolford got hired
by Alabama in the off season, and they lost four
(07:38):
starters on the old line. So I'm not surprised that
Kentucky has struggled to run it, and they've struggled the block.
Fifty four of their hundred nineteen run plays so far
this year have been stuffed. And that's against Miami, Ohio,
Florida and I you and Youngstown State. That needs to
be better. The SEC defenses they're about to face much
stronger than that. I think the Rebels offense will have
(07:59):
some opportunities in this game. Jackson darts grading out a
little better than expected, and I don't trust this Kentucky
defense considering the strength of schedule I just gave you
with those offenses, my guess is there's more points here
than we probably think. I think that's a great SEC
matchup to number two Alabama at number twenty Arkansas. So
Arkansas is a seventeen point home dog total sixty and
(08:22):
a half. But you think back to last week, Jared
Arkansas loses a heartbreaker. I've I've never seen a field
goal kick hit the top of the uprights and then
bounce out, but that's what happened to the Razorbacks. And
now they plummet from number ten down to number twenty,
but seventeen point home dogs is that too many points
(08:45):
in your estimation? Could be? Bamas won fifteen straight here,
only four of them not overall, but against Arkansas only
four of those fifteen were decided by less than two touchdowns.
Last year was one of the four thought five Amma one.
It was the most points allowed since two thousand and
seven for Alabama um in in in this series. And again,
(09:09):
despite winning by seven last year, Bama outgained by a
significant margin sight That was the most yards gained against
the ranked opponent in the entire Nick Saban era. So
Bama's offense hasn't looked great so far, but maybe this
Arkansas defense is the elixir, because you know, Nick Saban's
(09:30):
had a ton of success at least last year. Especially now,
this is a very different Bama offense this year, so
maybe not quite the same results. But there's still number
one in yards per play margin, there's still number one
in point margin. There's still a really good team. I
just don't think they have the flashy weapons that we
have seen in years past. Now. The one thing to
keep in mind here, Bama struggled on the road a
little bit lately. One and four against the number in
(09:52):
their last five road games Texas, Auburn, Mississippi State, and
a M. The four A t S losses there are
KA saw us calling for a big code red and
you know, we'll see what the crowds like. What we
saw Alabama struggle against Texas with penalties, with turnovers. That
could be a factor in this game. But I'll be honest,
Alabama should win. They should win handily. Very tough game
(10:14):
to handicap from a point spread perspective. Yeah, let's move over.
I think this is the quietest top ten team in
the country by far. Number nine Oklahoma State. What do
you hurt? What do you here being said about Oklahoma
State nationally? Nothing? Their number nine in the country. But
they're at number sixteen Baylor, and Baylor is a two
(10:36):
and a half point favorite here. What do you think
about this one? Yeah? And you're right because when I
was looking back at my numbers for Oklahoma State, they're
seventeen and two in their last nineteen games. I mean
pretty how many other teams in the country could say that.
You know, that's two full seasons worth of data, basically, um,
but this year, their their strength of schedule is a
hundred and twenty nine. They haven't played anybody, and they
(10:59):
haven't played a road game yet either, or they haven't
played anybody that's ranked inside the top seventy five. So
Baylor can say that. Now. I know this game is
in in still Water, but Baylor can say that they've
played some tough games, really tough games, and went to
b y U Iowa State. They have played some very
very difficult opponents. So I think Baylor actually is testing.
(11:21):
I'm sorry this game is in Waco, not not not
still Water. So the fact that the road matchup, we
haven't seen Oklahoma State play road game yet this year.
They will play one this week in a tough environment. Now,
the one thing I will say about Oklahoma State, they've
had an extra week to prepare. And this was the
revenge spot member. Baylor beat him in the Big twelfth
title game last year and it was a painful loss
by like a yard and a half. Oklahoma State fell
(11:41):
short in that game. We've seen the total gets steamed
up here and that kind of indicates to me that
the better offense is the right side. And if you
were going to ask me which team has the better
offense between these two, I might lean Baylor because Oklahoma
State is kind of known for their defense. Right now,
Baylor's offense has been again tested again some really tough
defenses b YU and Iowa State being the Big East,
(12:03):
and I don't think this Cowboys defense is as good
as people think. I think Baylor's offense is going to
break some tendencies here. I think Blake Shapen will be unleashed.
I think Baylor's the right side, and I think the
over is really a decent spot. I'll tell you two
things real fast. First off, the Big Twelve Championship game,
I can't remember if I had the in game under
or the in game under Oklahoma State team point total,
(12:26):
but them not scoring at the end was awesome. I
won with whatever bet I had, so I was a
big fan of them not scoring. The other thing is
it does make me think a little bit with what
you're explaining with Oklahoma State not playing anybody, makes me
think back to last week a bit with Michigan, because
Michigan hadn't played anybody in their first three games and
(12:48):
they did not have an easy time against Maryland. Strength
of schedule matters, Brian, and it's hard to gauge strength
of schedule, because it's very apples to apples or apple
excuse me, apples to oranges, where as the apples to
apples comparison, or when teams have direcked, you know, teams
that have kind of you know, overlapped, but that doesn't
happen a lot in the nonconference. So it's really hard
(13:09):
when we get the conference play to grade the strength
of schedules. But this one's pretty obvious to me. Baylor
has tested themselves out of the conference. Oklahoma State didn't.
I would give the edge to Bailor there. Okay, we
go to the last ranked versus ranked We've got five
of them again, five ranked versus ranked number twenty two
wake Forest against number twenty three Florida State. Florida State
(13:30):
a seven point favorite in this one. I'll tell you
this just on a personal level, watching wake Forest and
the slow mesh if you're betting on the other team,
makes you want to rip your hair out. And it's effective.
I give them credit. If you block it up front,
it is really effective. But they didn't have enough, got
(13:50):
it to overtime, didn't quite get over the hump against Clemson.
What do you think about this next week? Where you
have an emotional game that you'll lose, and now you're
on the road again against the Florida State team that
finds itself ranked. Yeah, this one open below the key
number of seven for Florida State being the favorite, and
now it's pushed through. I saw some sevens and now
(14:10):
it's kind of you're seeing a little bit of sharp
buyback on week The hurricane is going to be a
factor here period, end of story. Like, what's the weather
gonna be like in Tallahassee on Saturday? Is the remnants
of hurricane and going to be you know in the vicinity?
What is the fuel condition is going to be like?
There's again like the like the Clemson game, like some
of those other games that are played in North Carolina
and South Carolina this week, Like the weather is going
(14:32):
to be a factor. So before we even approach the
guts of the game, the meat and potatoes of the handicap,
what's the weather going to be like? I would say
good conditions Favorite Weight more because they're a little more
gimmicky with their offense. Bad conditions I think favorite Florida State,
which I think if you're Florida State, you want this
game to be played in a phone booth because their
defense has shown some cracks this year. Offensively, Florida State
(14:56):
looks fantastic, absolutely fantastic. They have talent all over the field.
The offensive line is playing better, Jordan Travis is grading
out like a top tier quarterback, their top twenty and
most major offensive categories. Mike Norvell's impact on this offense
has absolutely been felt, and they are especially against the
Wake defense. You saw what Clemson did to them, and
I would put Norvelle and you know, Florida State's offense
(15:19):
ahead of where Clemson's offense is. That scares me if
you're betting on Wake in this game. Now, on the
other side, this is gonna be the toughest test conditions
permitting for the Florida State defense this year. Who have
faced Duquane FCS team l s U in their first
game with a new regime, Louisville, who's tough to prepare for,
but listen, Florida State was tested in that game, and
Boston College, who is not great offensively. So Wake is
(15:43):
such a different animal offensively, Brian because they just they
temple you to death last year. In this game, Wake
grant fifty four plays in the first half, and Florida
State's already a little thin defensively, so are they gonna
be able to survive that tempo for sixty minutes on
at all? Sam Hartman Man, oh Man, he was pressured
(16:03):
in fifty of dropbacks against Clemson, and he had an
adjusted accuracy rate in that game that is assassin like.
Incredible performance by Sam Hartman last week. Can he duplicate
that in what should be difficult conditions on the road
against the hungary Florida State team that looks to be
for real on on both ends. So while Florida State again,
(16:25):
you're right, they have not been tested yet. Tough tough
letdown spot for Wake after just you know, battling their
butts off and coming up short against Clemson. Now they
have to face a really tough Florida State team on
the road and what could be really tough conditions, really
really tough to back Awake in this spot. Yeah, Sam Hartman,
he was unbelievable last week, really good, especially under duress.
(16:47):
It was really impressive. I will say this real fast.
I have transitioned over to pronouncing it Louisville. I do
it like the locals. I know, you go Louisville. I'm
not saying you're wrong. And I've got that. I've got
that that he's most accent thought, Yeah, yeah, you're you're
a Midwest guy, Brian. That's should be. You know, I'm
(17:07):
tour de France because that's how I tour de France.
You know, I don't know. I meant yeah. Now, last
one here, real fast, number four Michigan, who survived last
week against Maryland against Iowa, Iowa is a ten and
a half point dog at home here. I have trusted sources, Jared,
(17:28):
that have indicated that you might be with the Hawkeyes
over Brian, we're doing it again. We're doing it again. Yes,
we're doing that thing again where we trust the team
from Iowa City to not suck um. So all right,
hear me out. This line was three over the summer.
(17:48):
Michigan opened over the summer as a three point favorite.
What have we seen for the first few weeks? Okay,
I always looked bad, But over the last couple of
weeks they've looked a little bit better. Michigan has looked
unbelievable against three absolute Cup gigs. Then last week they
face a team with a pulse and they struggled a
(18:10):
little bit, and I think that's where I struggle to
get to the window on Michigan laying double digits on
the road, and then you start to look at some
of the overarching trends. Kinnocks Stadium has been a house
of horrors for top five teams since two thousand and six.
Top five teams are one and six against the spread,
and they are failing to cover underneath the expectations of
(18:33):
oddsmakers by over two touchdowns fifteen point two points per game.
They are failing to cover the spread in those seven
games top five teams at Kinnock Stadium. Of those seven games,
Iowa has won four of them out right. They've won
three of them outright as a double digit underdog. That
includes a fourteen thirteen win over Michigan six years ago
(18:55):
sixteen when they were a twenty four point underdog and
they won the game out right. Now, that game has
nothing to do with this handicap. Now, let's get into
what actually matters, which is the guts of the handicap. Well,
I would say the key to shutting down Michigan's offense
is getting to Blake Coreham and stopping the running game. Well,
Iowa's defense top ten and ep A pri play against
(19:16):
the run this year, They've been pretty decent stopping the run.
The concern for me, obviously, is i was offense scoring
enough points to keep up well. Michigan's defense was finally
pushed a little bit against Maryland and they showed some
cracks on defense in the run game, which is very
surprising to me. Fifty success right for Maryland's rushing plays
against Michigan's defense on Saturday. Iowa offensive line has been bad,
(19:39):
but they've been playing a little better. And I think
the reason why there's a little hope here is they've
got two young running backs that have not played a
lot early in the year, but over the last two
weeks they have played Lashawn Williams Caleb Johnson. They've come
on really strong over the last two games. So a
little youthful exuberance in the run game, maybe a little
bit better offensive line play. I've usually a big step
(20:00):
up in class for Iowa's offense against the Michigan defense
because they haven't played a ton of great defenses this season.
But I'll be honest, Iowa State's defense was pretty good
and they didn't hold their own, but at least they
competed in that game. And obviously the home crowd too,
is gonna be a huge factor in this game. Can
j J. McCarthy handled that environment. He's a new starting quarterback,
hasn't really been on the road yet. There's I could
(20:21):
see a world where Iowa wins a fluky one now
ten and a half eleven. That's a lot of points,
and and that's where I think I would definitely bet
here is just take the points with the Hawkeyes. Interesting stuff. Okay,
we'll have even more for you. It's Fox Sports Radio's
Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. So three hours
leading up to kickoff, so that noon Eastern window wherever
(20:42):
you are in the country, we're three hours before that,
so East coast time nine am until noon. It'll be
Jared Smith, who just heard from picks wise dot com, myself,
Brian Now, and our guy Rich orn Berger Penn State,
All American. Make sure you check us out three hours
leading up to kickoff. We'll get you all set with
picks and previews. Baby earn a fifty dollar bonus by
signing into bed MGM and clicking on refer a friend
(21:04):
to invite a friend and in just a few simple steps,
both you and your friend will receive fifty dollars in
bonus cash bet MGM, the King of sports books. All right,
wann welcome in Bill, Crack and Burger. Let's talk to
NFL sports handicapper from crack wins dot Com. Joining us here.
I'm Brian Noe alongside Crack. Gives me great pleasure to
(21:27):
say that Crack, how's everything going, man, I know you're
getting ready for Thursday night foot Yeah, I am, I am.
You know all fair, guys, we were just talking. I
guess I could say so. The first week on our
Sunday show, I gave out some inside information. They want
to call it. Come on, it's not inside information. But
someone said about it's simple. The first week we gave
out a couple of props storing the show and based
(21:49):
on weather, which we got them right. Second week, JK. Dobbins,
running back from Baltimore's, announced that I said, Jackson over yards,
this is simple. Running back this week, I said, listen,
the band is to get the ball first. I have
I have good word that they're gonna It was from
a Beat report, I'll tell you right now. So someone
on Twitter tag man tag Fox are like, you know,
(22:09):
I don't know the ethics behind this stuff, but you're
talking about inside there's no inside information. Give me a break.
It's just all it is is reading socials and finding
out stuff and anyway that that's what we do here though.
We're trying to educate the listener, the viewer. We're trying
to educate and show them things that they're not gonna
get on any other network. It's here on Fox Sports
Radio and our podcast and what we do so um
(22:33):
with that, I'll tell you right now, I'm betting the
Bangles again tonight. I'm going right into a pick the
Bengals again to score first tonight. Uh we're here where
I'm as minus one forties and the score first. Um,
A tough for Miami. Squad's gonna be here tonight, though, Brian,
I understand that everyone's talking about them being so banged up,
and you know they come back off a short week.
(22:54):
Well I mean, listen, since he's off a short week too,
but they just went to minus three and a half
minus juice of minus four. I think Cincinnati is definitely
uh probably the public side of this tonight, But don't
think Miami can't surprise anyone. And if they win this
game tonight, you can guarantee they're gonna be the talk
of the NFL. Absolutely. If that's the case, for sure,
(23:16):
I have to tell you a brief story here, crack,
because you mentioned that last week Bengals hosting the Jets. Bengals,
based on your inside sources over there, we're gonna get
the ball first, and you're like, better to score first,
and it was our show ends right before a kickoff,
and so I I'm fumbling around. I'm trying to bet that.
I couldn't figure it out in a couple of minutes
(23:36):
I had, so I'm like, a screw it, I'll take
the Bengals in the first quarter. Fast forward to the
end of the first quarter. They're up seven to six.
They are not covering the first quarter spread. I was
at the sports bar and I told my buddy. I
was like, yeah, I'm gonna lose this one. That's when
Tyler Boyd and that long touchdown catch where he bounces
off the safety goes in for I don't even know
what it was, sixty seventy yards and I won my
(23:58):
first quarter bet there, Crack. Wow, I didn't even know
that combat that a lot of times. If you do,
guys with Brian saying bet in the first quarter with
the spread, you may want to look at a money
line to It's so hard to win a first quarter
laying points. Uh any any quick score by the dog
(24:19):
you're really up against. So I'm glad you did win it.
And and again you want to they want to look
at that money line. So yeah, definitely what else was
going on? Good advice right there? Now? How about this?
You are I'm not gonna call it out on an
island crack, but there is some resistance, some resistance to
a couple of plays that you're looking at this week.
Let's look at the Sunday night game Chiefs against Tampa.
(24:42):
You're liking the under in this one at right right now,
it's forty five at bet MGM. Are you still on
the under when some people are saying, oh, we're smelling
the over here crack. Let's say I have a live
line service mind sets forty five and a half of MGM,
but I could be wrong. There's actually forty six is
out there as we speak. A couple of casinos are
actually moving. You know, I'm one that doesn't really as
(25:05):
long as I'm on something, I don't mind people being
against me, but I'd like to know what syndicate or
which service is against me. Um, because there was a
there was a couple I do respect. So yeah, I
bet the under gear, and I think that there's a
situation here that you'll be able to get maybe even
a better line by Sunday night because it is a
prime time game. And uh yeah, that's one that's that's
(25:28):
against me. There. I still, if I had to pick
a game that I still like that that is still
even though I got a good line on this and
it was the only lines. The reason why I really couldn't,
uh um send this out to everyone because there was
only one rogue forty six and a half out there.
Now I see back to forty six and this, this
is still a good number to go under. I think
(25:50):
the Sunday ninth game, when I bet overs, I like
to go over in the first half. Something I really
like to do. I send you guys, I'm on a
Texas For everyone out there listening, I'm out of text
with our producer and And and Jeff Schwartz, Bryan know
and I try to send these guys the first things
I bet early Monday or even sometimes Sunday night. So
(26:14):
that is the one that I'm still recommending on the under.
But the Philadelphia one, so I'm gonna jump around, are
not Philadelphia. I'm sorry. Clean the Cleveland Browns Atlanta game.
I sent you guys that over, and actually the stronger
bet for me would be over in the first half there,
there's twenty fours there. I think that these teams are
(26:36):
getting out real quick this year. Unlike other years, we
are being not dominated, but definitely the games have been
under this year. I think teams are kind of doing
this little like thinking dunk passes. No, not a lot
of stuff over the top um. Like I said, I
actually talked about this earlier in the week. You don't
(26:57):
see a lot of film clips now with with like
touchdown giant touchdowns, and there really hasn't been any. Maybe
Hill there was one, but he hasn't been any long
touchdowns this year. That is making the highlight films on
shows after the games are over. It's just a different year.
It seems like they're kind of getting jumping to the
lead and kind of taking the foot off the pedal,
(27:18):
and therefore you even though first half is going over.
The games aren't going over, So I kind of like
the first half over there, and that that Cleveland Atlantic game. Yeah,
that Brown's Atlanta game, because if you look at Atlanta,
Mariot has played pretty well all things considered, and I
like the one to punch in terms of what they
(27:39):
have in terms of pass catchers with Drake London, he's
been very, very good, and of course the tight end
is all world and Kyle Pitts. They put a lot
more pressure on defenses than I thought they would to
start off the season, even Week one against the Saints.
The Saints have a fantastic defense, and Atlanta put up
where Darrell Patterson was electric last week against Seattle. Yeah,
(28:02):
I know that they should have won that game. And
I'll be the first to tell you I was I
was wrong about Atlanta. I said under on season wins.
They have come out and shown uh some people here
that they don't They deserve more credit and more respect
than they're getting, just like Jacksonville this year, they definitely get,
you know, more respect than uh from me. Anyway, this
(28:24):
particular Cleveland Atlanta game. Earlier in the week, I found
a rogue three, so I actually took up put a
couple of bucks on Atlanta plus the three points. It's
down to one now, so it uh, the value is
definitely gone. But that's how much faith even I, even
I have in the land of this week against Cleveland.
So I think I should be a good game, high
(28:45):
scoring game. I'm recommending the first half over in that game. Uh,
there's like I said, there's another one that I overs.
I'm I'm kind of getting off full game. Or even
though I did bet a lot of money, I bet
thousands of dollars on these overs, I really wait for
later in the week to attack the over first half
and I put a little more strength into that first
(29:07):
half if I'm playing over in the game. Just a
random question for you here, crack Um, and we'll get
back to the matchups here. But this casey Tampa game,
where let's just say it's forty six for the sake
of argument, the total, and it's in Tampa right now.
The contingency plan is if Hurricane Ian is a factor,
they're gonna move it to Minneapolis. They're gonna play it
(29:27):
with the Vikings play. So let's say the total is
forty six in Tampa. How do you feel if the
total is forty six in Minneapolis, a neutral site. Where
would be the play if that were the case. Yeah,
And you know, you bring up a fantastic point. I
knew about this weather after I bet it. I didn't
realize it was it was going to affect the game
(29:49):
or not affect the game. I thinking that it's probably
not going to but just in case they can't get
the field there Sunday night in the right shape and
the weather is still um torrential, they're moving it. You
have to check what your line maker too. You have
to check the rules on the game, like where you
bet it. Does the game have to take place at
(30:12):
that particular home stadium or not? So that's another thing
that we have to check with the rules. Even myself,
I am not I should be schooled enough, but I
bet in everyone that's betting. Most people don't realize the
rules where the games take place. If it changes venues
as your bet null and void. So if it does
move move over to Uh, you said to me, and
(30:33):
that would you say Minnesota? That what you said? If
it does move Uh, that may affect the total and
I would I would say it's still the same two
teams playing. I would still recommend under however, we may
actually get an extra point or some or so because
our hand when when when when we come up with
the game, and me and I say, me and my
(30:55):
team come up with a game, we already we put
into the UH into our equation the team being home
Tampa Bay, and we say it's going to be nice weather,
especially you know Florida weather is probably be a nice one.
So I'll say the same thing about Minnesota. But you
actually may get an an additional point on on the
total there UH which which listen, if I can get
(31:18):
under forty seven, I'll bet it again. So it doesn't
really so at the bottom line is doesn't matter to me.
I'm looking forward to that. I like it. Okay, you've
mentioned the Jags in passing here. Let's dive into their game,
Jacksonville at Philadelphia Philly, one of the only two remaining
undefeated teams at least going into Thursday night. Hopefully the
Dolphins remain undefeated here crack I would love four and no,
(31:41):
but as of this recording here, the Eagles and the
Dolphins are both unbeaten. How about the Eagles minus six
and a half or six and a half point favorites
hosting Jacksonville, who just crushed to Chargers last week with
Herbert Blank, What do you think about Jacksonville and Philly
this weekend? Well, first of all, Jacksonville was made to
(32:02):
look a little bit better last week. I mean, here
you have thirty eight to ten and the coach they're
still playing a banged up Herbert you know, literally five
minutes lest I mean, this is this guy's your whole franchise,
and early in the year, you want to still playing
when they're down by twenty eight points. And I just
can't take the coaching staff of going talking about the
Chargers though, and they're decimated with injuries. Slater, Bosa Adland,
(32:25):
I can go on and on. Um you're talking about Jacksonville,
and they're definitely a better team than I thought. I
recommended the under early in the season, and I'll tell
you I'm definitely heading the wrong direction there. They're playing
a Philadelphia team that just maybe listen, I bet Philadelphia
to win the division. But I don't think even though
(32:49):
it's the third game now and every week I've said this,
I think Washington made them look better. I think Minnesota
with three turnovers in the red Zone cousins. I think
they made them look better the week before. I don't
know if Philadelphia is seven point you know it, literally
it's opened up seven and six and a half. You
can still buy plus seven minus twenty. I don't know
if Philadelphia deserves to be this big of a favorite,
(33:12):
even though they are home. Toughest stadium probably to play,
toughest fans, toughest fan base to play is the Eagles,
for sure, and their fans are really dedicated. Don't forget
they're the ones that throw the snowballs and saying, a
very tough crowd. Um. I just I would lean Jacksonville here.
I didn't bet them because I didn't get the seven again,
(33:32):
looking to bet against Philadelphia and and and Philadelphia has
probably maybe look bad this year talking about them, I
think this will be a big game for them, and
I look, I look for Jacksonville to probably keep this
one closer. We'll see what happens, We'll see what We're
gonna see what they're made of Jacksonville this week. Let's
go with one more here, Crack. We've got the Chargers
at the Texans as we speak, Texans five point home
(33:55):
dogs at bet MGM and I've got some good sources
over here that say you might be smelling, you might
be liking Lovey Smith and Company. Is that the case? Yeah,
you know this is It's listen. It's real simple. People
love to bet favorites. They love to bet like a
team like this money line. Um, they love to bet
(34:18):
the money line and their parley's which I'm not a
money line parlay guy, but they love to do that.
I would lean Houston here. I see plus two to
ones on money line, um, especially with the points now
now it opened up seven just for a second though,
just for a hair Sunday night, it opened up seven,
got hit right away, down to five. Um. If I
(34:39):
have to pick, you know, you guys know I don't
do a lot of sides, but I would stick to
I would like Houston here coming back home. Don't forget
the first week, that big collapse they had, even though
they didn't lose the game, they didn't win the game
vers the cold so um that then they then they
went to Denver I think and kind of would stay
within a touchdown, had a good defense, only a lot
of sixteen points. I would think coming back home here
(35:02):
they'll be a little more repaired especially like I said,
for this banged up Charger staff, and I think this
is a good opportunity for for Houston. Interesting stuff. Hey,
be sure to check out the new looking features in
the bed MGM app. It's fast and easy access to
the sports you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily
Lions Boost, or the cash out feature. New users can
(35:23):
use the code countdown for a special offer. Okay, make
sure you check us out. Sunday's Fox Sports Radios count
Down to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM Bill kracken Burger
breaking it down left and right. He just gave you
a bunch of plays you can cash in on. We'll
have even more for you on Sunday mornings. It'll be
with me Brian No also our guy Jeff Schwartz, eight
(35:46):
year NFL veteran. Three hours before kickoff, So if you're
thinking East Coast ten am until one pm Eastern Time,
that early kickoff time three hours get you all set
for all the action with picks and previews. Check us
out there,
Are you to college fans. Welcome to the biggest tailgate
party in the nation, Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by beat MGM, the gig of sports book. We're
setting you up with the information you need to watch
(00:21):
your team win. Let's go. We're here to break it
all down. Let's go, Let's go. This is Fox Sports
Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. We're live
from your tail game. Here's Brian No. Everybody, welcome in.
It's Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
(00:45):
Podcast addition over here, I want to welcome in Jared Smith.
Will be talking college football with him. He's our lead
betting analysts from picks wise dot com. Also, we will
have Bill Krackenberger, who is our NFL guy, and Bill
he is a sports handicapper from crack wins dot com.
We want to remind you that new users download the
(01:08):
bet MGM app today and use code countdown for a
special offer. That's code countdown in the bet MGM app. Alright, so,
first off college football. Jared Smith from picks wise dot com.
Wanna welcome him in here. Jared Everything good Man, did
you make a fortune last week in college football betting wise.
Oh man, you know, I'll be honest. The college football
(01:30):
game it hasn't been great this year. I've kind of
been hovering around the five mark. It's been some bad beat,
some good beats, some volatile results. I'm I never get
to concern with my win loss record until about mid season.
At this point, we're still kind of figuring out what
these teams are. We're trying to make good bets every week.
We're trying to have fun too, obviously, um but nothing
(01:53):
to write home about with the results. But listen, you're
only as good as the last bet you make. So
we move forward. We absolutely moved forward. And what a
slate we have here. Man. We've got five ranked versus
ranked matchups this weekend in college football. That's huge, and
there there's some really good matchups where there's just one
team that's ranked against an unranked opponent. But we'll start
(02:14):
with the how do you say it? Creme de la creme?
Is that right? I think it's the first. I normally
go like apple cinnamon, neutral grain bars, So I fancy that.
How about this number ten NC State against number five Clemson.
This blows my mind, Jared, this is the first time
(02:38):
that NC State, who is in the top ten will
face another a P top ten team, So the first
time ever they've that's like they've had Philip Rivers there
is the first time ever they've done that. But this
is a new ground being broken by the Wolfpack over
here and d j Ui ungle Alay, what a performance
(02:58):
last week against Way. We've got the line at six
and a half right now at bet MGM. Clemson has favored.
What are your first thoughts on this matchup, Jared, Yeah,
Clemson's favored, as they expect to be. Um looks like
the line. I'll be honest, I haven't seen a ton
of movement off of the key number of seven much
this week. It's kind of been hovering in that range.
You can still get Clemson like six and a half
(03:21):
if you'd like. I see a couple of shops with seven.
So not a ton of movement in this game to
speak of. And I'll be honest, I think that's because
of what's looming up and down the Eastern Seaboard this week.
And it's kind of ironic. There are a ton of
high profile games that are right in the path of
Hurricane ian this week. Very difficult to handicap what the
(03:41):
conditions are gonna be like. If it's just rain, not
as impactful. If it's rain plus wind, good luck throwing
the football. Now, if you recalled, these two teams were
very highly ranked, not top ten, but highly ranked back
in They also played in a hurricane. It was a
ten three win Frenzy State. So it kind of funny
how things come full circle here. You're right, d J.
(04:02):
You played great against wake The Clemson defense did not.
That's the part of this handicap that I'm very fascinated with. Clemson,
very good against the run, hasn't been so great against
the past. They were a little banged up in the
secondary in that game against Wake. Um hearing positive things
for those players this week, but as you know, injuries
in the college football world also very difficult to handicap
(04:24):
because we don't get a ton of information. If those
key secondary pieces come back for Clemson, obviously that's a
positive for them. That might push this line to seven.
But when you look at Devin Leary hasn't been that
impressive so far. Five point three yards per tempt against
Texas Tech, just seven point three against Yukon the one
thing I will say for Devon Learry have a hundred
and forty one graded quarterbacks on play action. If you're
(04:47):
Dave Dorian, who was a defensive minded conservative head coach,
and you're looking at a really good quarterback in play action,
not so great straight up passing, and you've got a
defense and Clemson that might be a little vulnerable in
the back, I'm gonna want to take advantage of that
play action early downs, pushed the ball down the field.
See if we can't take a lead and make d
J you match you. Um, But to me, that's the
(05:10):
that's the edge in this game. If Dave dorn And
and NC State's offense break tendencies and they go play
action on early downs, they might have an edge here.
But I'll be honest, I'd be surprised if Clemson didn't
win this game. Yeah. I keep looking at the total here, Jared,
where it's forty two and a half at bet MGM.
So if you're thinking about the over, I think you
would consider last week where you mentioned Clemson's corners against
(05:32):
Wake were freaking brutal, just decrepibly awful. But and then
you also had DJ you played great five touchdown passes.
He was unbelievable. So you might start thinking, hey, over
forty two and a half, that's not that high of
a total. But I love how NC States defense is played.
And then he consider the weather factor. It gets a
(05:53):
little tricky when you consider all sides. M hm, yeah,
the weather. And I'll be honest if let's say that,
so this is it's a really I don't envy um
bookmakers this week, even though they're the ones that are
holding the cards most weeks. This is a tough week
for them because they could be very wrong about a
lot of these totals. If the weather isn't as bad
(06:13):
as people are predicting, and the only people wrong more
than handicappers on a weekly basis or meteorologist, there's a
very good chance that the weather isn't as bad as
we're hearing, and things clear up, the hurricane goes another
rector whatever. There's still several days until Saturday. I wouldn't
be surprised if the weather isn't as bad as people think.
And if that's the case, well, then yeah, this total
(06:34):
is way too low at forty two. What do we Okay,
let's shift to another one. It's a Great SEC matchup
number seven, Kentucky at number fourteen Old Miss Old Miss
seven point favorites total if you want to pick at that,
fifty three and a half. We're talking Noon Eastern. Let's
get after it right away. What do you see in
this one? Yeah, first time both teams ranked in this
(06:56):
matchup since nine. No hog about history. Um, Kentucky is
looking for back to back five and oh starts for
the first time in over seventy years. And again this
they were a good team last year and they're you know,
undefeated so far this year. Oh, this is one twelve
straight in Oxford. So there's some conflicting trends here to
go at. Chris Rodriguez will return for Kentucky. That's huge
(07:18):
four game suspension. He's back much needed boost to the
running game. And I think another thing he is good
at that people don't always talking about with running backs
is the past blocking that running backs can provide. Sometimes.
Will Levis needs it because he's kind of been at
this season and the Kentucky offensive line has been even worse.
No surprise, their offensive line coach Eric Wolford got hired
by Alabama in the off season, and they lost four
(07:38):
starters on the old line. So I'm not surprised that
Kentucky has struggled to run it, and they've struggled the block.
Fifty four of their hundred nineteen run plays so far
this year have been stuffed. And that's against Miami, Ohio,
Florida and I you and Youngstown State. That needs to
be better. The SEC defenses they're about to face much
stronger than that. I think the Rebels offense will have
(07:59):
some opportunities in this game. Jackson darts grading out a
little better than expected, and I don't trust this Kentucky
defense considering the strength of schedule I just gave you
with those offenses, my guess is there's more points here
than we probably think. I think that's a great SEC
matchup to number two Alabama at number twenty Arkansas. So
Arkansas is a seventeen point home dog total sixty and
(08:22):
a half. But you think back to last week, Jared
Arkansas loses a heartbreaker. I've I've never seen a field
goal kick hit the top of the uprights and then
bounce out, but that's what happened to the Razorbacks. And
now they plummet from number ten down to number twenty,
but seventeen point home dogs is that too many points
(08:45):
in your estimation? Could be? Bamas won fifteen straight here,
only four of them not overall, but against Arkansas only
four of those fifteen were decided by less than two touchdowns.
Last year was one of the four thought five Amma one.
It was the most points allowed since two thousand and
seven for Alabama um in in in this series. And again,
(09:09):
despite winning by seven last year, Bama outgained by a
significant margin sight That was the most yards gained against
the ranked opponent in the entire Nick Saban era. So
Bama's offense hasn't looked great so far, but maybe this
Arkansas defense is the elixir, because you know, Nick Saban's
(09:30):
had a ton of success at least last year. Especially now,
this is a very different Bama offense this year, so
maybe not quite the same results. But there's still number
one in yards per play margin, there's still number one
in point margin. There's still a really good team. I
just don't think they have the flashy weapons that we
have seen in years past. Now. The one thing to
keep in mind here, Bama struggled on the road a
little bit lately. One and four against the number in
(09:52):
their last five road games Texas, Auburn, Mississippi State, and
a M. The four A t S losses there are
KA saw us calling for a big code red and
you know, we'll see what the crowds like. What we
saw Alabama struggle against Texas with penalties, with turnovers. That
could be a factor in this game. But I'll be honest,
Alabama should win. They should win handily. Very tough game
(10:14):
to handicap from a point spread perspective. Yeah, let's move over.
I think this is the quietest top ten team in
the country by far. Number nine Oklahoma State. What do
you hurt? What do you here being said about Oklahoma
State nationally? Nothing? Their number nine in the country. But
they're at number sixteen Baylor, and Baylor is a two
(10:36):
and a half point favorite here. What do you think
about this one? Yeah? And you're right because when I
was looking back at my numbers for Oklahoma State, they're
seventeen and two in their last nineteen games. I mean
pretty how many other teams in the country could say that.
You know, that's two full seasons worth of data, basically, um,
but this year, their their strength of schedule is a
hundred and twenty nine. They haven't played anybody, and they
(10:59):
haven't played a road game yet either, or they haven't
played anybody that's ranked inside the top seventy five. So
Baylor can say that. Now. I know this game is
in in still Water, but Baylor can say that they've
played some tough games, really tough games, and went to
b y U Iowa State. They have played some very
very difficult opponents. So I think Baylor actually is testing.
(11:21):
I'm sorry this game is in Waco, not not not
still Water. So the fact that the road matchup, we
haven't seen Oklahoma State play road game yet this year.
They will play one this week in a tough environment. Now,
the one thing I will say about Oklahoma State, they've
had an extra week to prepare. And this was the
revenge spot member. Baylor beat him in the Big twelfth
title game last year and it was a painful loss
by like a yard and a half. Oklahoma State fell
(11:41):
short in that game. We've seen the total gets steamed
up here and that kind of indicates to me that
the better offense is the right side. And if you
were going to ask me which team has the better
offense between these two, I might lean Baylor because Oklahoma
State is kind of known for their defense. Right now,
Baylor's offense has been again tested again some really tough
defenses b YU and Iowa State being the Big East,
(12:03):
and I don't think this Cowboys defense is as good
as people think. I think Baylor's offense is going to
break some tendencies here. I think Blake Shapen will be unleashed.
I think Baylor's the right side, and I think the
over is really a decent spot. I'll tell you two
things real fast. First off, the Big Twelve Championship game,
I can't remember if I had the in game under
or the in game under Oklahoma State team point total,
(12:26):
but them not scoring at the end was awesome. I
won with whatever bet I had, so I was a
big fan of them not scoring. The other thing is
it does make me think a little bit with what
you're explaining with Oklahoma State not playing anybody, makes me
think back to last week a bit with Michigan, because
Michigan hadn't played anybody in their first three games and
(12:48):
they did not have an easy time against Maryland. Strength
of schedule matters, Brian, and it's hard to gauge strength
of schedule, because it's very apples to apples or apple
excuse me, apples to oranges, where as the apples to
apples comparison, or when teams have direcked, you know, teams
that have kind of you know, overlapped, but that doesn't
happen a lot in the nonconference. So it's really hard
(13:09):
when we get the conference play to grade the strength
of schedules. But this one's pretty obvious to me. Baylor
has tested themselves out of the conference. Oklahoma State didn't.
I would give the edge to Bailor there. Okay, we
go to the last ranked versus ranked We've got five
of them again, five ranked versus ranked number twenty two
wake Forest against number twenty three Florida State. Florida State
(13:30):
a seven point favorite in this one. I'll tell you
this just on a personal level, watching wake Forest and
the slow mesh if you're betting on the other team,
makes you want to rip your hair out. And it's effective.
I give them credit. If you block it up front,
it is really effective. But they didn't have enough, got
(13:50):
it to overtime, didn't quite get over the hump against Clemson.
What do you think about this next week? Where you
have an emotional game that you'll lose, and now you're
on the road again against the Florida State team that
finds itself ranked. Yeah, this one open below the key
number of seven for Florida State being the favorite, and
now it's pushed through. I saw some sevens and now
(14:10):
it's kind of you're seeing a little bit of sharp
buyback on week The hurricane is going to be a
factor here period, end of story. Like, what's the weather
gonna be like in Tallahassee on Saturday? Is the remnants
of hurricane and going to be you know in the vicinity?
What is the fuel condition is going to be like?
There's again like the like the Clemson game, like some
of those other games that are played in North Carolina
and South Carolina this week, Like the weather is going
(14:32):
to be a factor. So before we even approach the
guts of the game, the meat and potatoes of the handicap,
what's the weather going to be like? I would say
good conditions Favorite Weight more because they're a little more
gimmicky with their offense. Bad conditions I think favorite Florida State,
which I think if you're Florida State, you want this
game to be played in a phone booth because their
defense has shown some cracks this year. Offensively, Florida State
(14:56):
looks fantastic, absolutely fantastic. They have talent all over the field.
The offensive line is playing better, Jordan Travis is grading
out like a top tier quarterback, their top twenty and
most major offensive categories. Mike Norvell's impact on this offense
has absolutely been felt, and they are especially against the
Wake defense. You saw what Clemson did to them, and
I would put Norvelle and you know, Florida State's offense
(15:19):
ahead of where Clemson's offense is. That scares me if
you're betting on Wake in this game. Now, on the
other side, this is gonna be the toughest test conditions
permitting for the Florida State defense this year. Who have
faced Duquane FCS team l s U in their first
game with a new regime, Louisville, who's tough to prepare for,
but listen, Florida State was tested in that game, and
Boston College, who is not great offensively. So Wake is
(15:43):
such a different animal offensively, Brian because they just they
temple you to death last year. In this game, Wake
grant fifty four plays in the first half, and Florida
State's already a little thin defensively, so are they gonna
be able to survive that tempo for sixty minutes on
at all? Sam Hartman Man, oh Man, he was pressured
(16:03):
in fifty of dropbacks against Clemson, and he had an
adjusted accuracy rate in that game that is assassin like.
Incredible performance by Sam Hartman last week. Can he duplicate
that in what should be difficult conditions on the road
against the hungary Florida State team that looks to be
for real on on both ends. So while Florida State again,
(16:25):
you're right, they have not been tested yet. Tough tough
letdown spot for Wake after just you know, battling their
butts off and coming up short against Clemson. Now they
have to face a really tough Florida State team on
the road and what could be really tough conditions, really
really tough to back Awake in this spot. Yeah, Sam Hartman,
he was unbelievable last week, really good, especially under duress.
(16:47):
It was really impressive. I will say this real fast.
I have transitioned over to pronouncing it Louisville. I do
it like the locals. I know, you go Louisville. I'm
not saying you're wrong. And I've got that. I've got
that that he's most accent thought, Yeah, yeah, you're you're
a Midwest guy, Brian. That's should be. You know, I'm
(17:07):
tour de France because that's how I tour de France.
You know, I don't know. I meant yeah. Now, last
one here, real fast, number four Michigan, who survived last
week against Maryland against Iowa, Iowa is a ten and
a half point dog at home here. I have trusted sources, Jared,
(17:28):
that have indicated that you might be with the Hawkeyes
over Brian, we're doing it again. We're doing it again. Yes,
we're doing that thing again where we trust the team
from Iowa City to not suck um. So all right,
hear me out. This line was three over the summer.
(17:48):
Michigan opened over the summer as a three point favorite.
What have we seen for the first few weeks? Okay,
I always looked bad, But over the last couple of
weeks they've looked a little bit better. Michigan has looked
unbelievable against three absolute Cup gigs. Then last week they
face a team with a pulse and they struggled a
(18:10):
little bit, and I think that's where I struggle to
get to the window on Michigan laying double digits on
the road, and then you start to look at some
of the overarching trends. Kinnocks Stadium has been a house
of horrors for top five teams since two thousand and six.
Top five teams are one and six against the spread,
and they are failing to cover underneath the expectations of
(18:33):
oddsmakers by over two touchdowns fifteen point two points per game.
They are failing to cover the spread in those seven
games top five teams at Kinnock Stadium. Of those seven games,
Iowa has won four of them out right. They've won
three of them outright as a double digit underdog. That
includes a fourteen thirteen win over Michigan six years ago
(18:55):
sixteen when they were a twenty four point underdog and
they won the game out right. Now, that game has
nothing to do with this handicap. Now, let's get into
what actually matters, which is the guts of the handicap. Well,
I would say the key to shutting down Michigan's offense
is getting to Blake Coreham and stopping the running game. Well,
Iowa's defense top ten and ep A pri play against
(19:16):
the run this year, They've been pretty decent stopping the run.
The concern for me, obviously, is i was offense scoring
enough points to keep up well. Michigan's defense was finally
pushed a little bit against Maryland and they showed some
cracks on defense in the run game, which is very
surprising to me. Fifty success right for Maryland's rushing plays
against Michigan's defense on Saturday. Iowa offensive line has been bad,
(19:39):
but they've been playing a little better. And I think
the reason why there's a little hope here is they've
got two young running backs that have not played a
lot early in the year, but over the last two
weeks they have played Lashawn Williams Caleb Johnson. They've come
on really strong over the last two games. So a
little youthful exuberance in the run game, maybe a little
bit better offensive line play. I've usually a big step
(20:00):
up in class for Iowa's offense against the Michigan defense
because they haven't played a ton of great defenses this season.
But I'll be honest, Iowa State's defense was pretty good
and they didn't hold their own, but at least they
competed in that game. And obviously the home crowd too,
is gonna be a huge factor in this game. Can
j J. McCarthy handled that environment. He's a new starting quarterback,
hasn't really been on the road yet. There's I could
(20:21):
see a world where Iowa wins a fluky one now
ten and a half eleven. That's a lot of points,
and and that's where I think I would definitely bet
here is just take the points with the Hawkeyes. Interesting stuff. Okay,
we'll have even more for you. It's Fox Sports Radio's
Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. So three hours
leading up to kickoff, so that noon Eastern window wherever
(20:42):
you are in the country, we're three hours before that,
so East coast time nine am until noon. It'll be
Jared Smith, who just heard from picks wise dot com, myself,
Brian Now, and our guy Rich orn Berger Penn State,
All American. Make sure you check us out three hours
leading up to kickoff. We'll get you all set with
picks and previews. Baby earn a fifty dollar bonus by
signing into bed MGM and clicking on refer a friend
(21:04):
to invite a friend and in just a few simple steps,
both you and your friend will receive fifty dollars in
bonus cash bet MGM, the King of sports books. All right,
wann welcome in Bill, Crack and Burger. Let's talk to
NFL sports handicapper from crack wins dot Com. Joining us here.
I'm Brian Noe alongside Crack. Gives me great pleasure to
(21:27):
say that Crack, how's everything going, man, I know you're
getting ready for Thursday night foot Yeah, I am, I am.
You know all fair, guys, we were just talking. I
guess I could say so. The first week on our
Sunday show, I gave out some inside information. They want
to call it. Come on, it's not inside information. But
someone said about it's simple. The first week we gave
out a couple of props storing the show and based
(21:49):
on weather, which we got them right. Second week, JK. Dobbins,
running back from Baltimore's, announced that I said, Jackson over yards,
this is simple. Running back this week, I said, listen,
the band is to get the ball first. I have
I have good word that they're gonna It was from
a Beat report, I'll tell you right now. So someone
on Twitter tag man tag Fox are like, you know,
(22:09):
I don't know the ethics behind this stuff, but you're
talking about inside there's no inside information. Give me a break.
It's just all it is is reading socials and finding
out stuff and anyway that that's what we do here though.
We're trying to educate the listener, the viewer. We're trying
to educate and show them things that they're not gonna
get on any other network. It's here on Fox Sports
Radio and our podcast and what we do so um
(22:33):
with that, I'll tell you right now, I'm betting the
Bangles again tonight. I'm going right into a pick the
Bengals again to score first tonight. Uh we're here where
I'm as minus one forties and the score first. Um,
A tough for Miami. Squad's gonna be here tonight, though, Brian,
I understand that everyone's talking about them being so banged up,
and you know they come back off a short week.
(22:54):
Well I mean, listen, since he's off a short week too,
but they just went to minus three and a half
minus juice of minus four. I think Cincinnati is definitely
uh probably the public side of this tonight, But don't
think Miami can't surprise anyone. And if they win this
game tonight, you can guarantee they're gonna be the talk
of the NFL. Absolutely. If that's the case, for sure,
(23:16):
I have to tell you a brief story here, crack,
because you mentioned that last week Bengals hosting the Jets. Bengals,
based on your inside sources over there, we're gonna get
the ball first, and you're like, better to score first,
and it was our show ends right before a kickoff,
and so I I'm fumbling around. I'm trying to bet that.
I couldn't figure it out in a couple of minutes
(23:36):
I had, so I'm like, a screw it, I'll take
the Bengals in the first quarter. Fast forward to the
end of the first quarter. They're up seven to six.
They are not covering the first quarter spread. I was
at the sports bar and I told my buddy. I
was like, yeah, I'm gonna lose this one. That's when
Tyler Boyd and that long touchdown catch where he bounces
off the safety goes in for I don't even know
what it was, sixty seventy yards and I won my
(23:58):
first quarter bet there, Crack. Wow, I didn't even know
that combat that a lot of times. If you do,
guys with Brian saying bet in the first quarter with
the spread, you may want to look at a money
line to It's so hard to win a first quarter
laying points. Uh any any quick score by the dog
(24:19):
you're really up against. So I'm glad you did win it.
And and again you want to they want to look
at that money line. So yeah, definitely what else was
going on? Good advice right there? Now? How about this?
You are I'm not gonna call it out on an
island crack, but there is some resistance, some resistance to
a couple of plays that you're looking at this week.
Let's look at the Sunday night game Chiefs against Tampa.
(24:42):
You're liking the under in this one at right right now,
it's forty five at bet MGM. Are you still on
the under when some people are saying, oh, we're smelling
the over here crack. Let's say I have a live
line service mind sets forty five and a half of MGM,
but I could be wrong. There's actually forty six is
out there as we speak. A couple of casinos are
actually moving. You know, I'm one that doesn't really as
(25:05):
long as I'm on something, I don't mind people being
against me, but I'd like to know what syndicate or
which service is against me. Um, because there was a
there was a couple I do respect. So yeah, I
bet the under gear, and I think that there's a
situation here that you'll be able to get maybe even
a better line by Sunday night because it is a
prime time game. And uh yeah, that's one that's that's
(25:28):
against me. There. I still, if I had to pick
a game that I still like that that is still
even though I got a good line on this and
it was the only lines. The reason why I really couldn't,
uh um send this out to everyone because there was
only one rogue forty six and a half out there.
Now I see back to forty six and this, this
is still a good number to go under. I think
(25:50):
the Sunday ninth game, when I bet overs, I like
to go over in the first half. Something I really
like to do. I send you guys, I'm on a
Texas For everyone out there listening, I'm out of text
with our producer and And and Jeff Schwartz, Bryan know
and I try to send these guys the first things
I bet early Monday or even sometimes Sunday night. So
(26:14):
that is the one that I'm still recommending on the under.
But the Philadelphia one, so I'm gonna jump around, are
not Philadelphia. I'm sorry. Clean the Cleveland Browns Atlanta game.
I sent you guys that over, and actually the stronger
bet for me would be over in the first half there,
there's twenty fours there. I think that these teams are
(26:36):
getting out real quick this year. Unlike other years, we
are being not dominated, but definitely the games have been
under this year. I think teams are kind of doing
this little like thinking dunk passes. No, not a lot
of stuff over the top um. Like I said, I
actually talked about this earlier in the week. You don't
(26:57):
see a lot of film clips now with with like
touchdown giant touchdowns, and there really hasn't been any. Maybe
Hill there was one, but he hasn't been any long
touchdowns this year. That is making the highlight films on
shows after the games are over. It's just a different year.
It seems like they're kind of getting jumping to the
lead and kind of taking the foot off the pedal,
(27:18):
and therefore you even though first half is going over.
The games aren't going over, So I kind of like
the first half over there, and that that Cleveland Atlantic game. Yeah,
that Brown's Atlanta game, because if you look at Atlanta,
Mariot has played pretty well all things considered, and I
like the one to punch in terms of what they
(27:39):
have in terms of pass catchers with Drake London, he's
been very, very good, and of course the tight end
is all world and Kyle Pitts. They put a lot
more pressure on defenses than I thought they would to
start off the season, even Week one against the Saints.
The Saints have a fantastic defense, and Atlanta put up
where Darrell Patterson was electric last week against Seattle. Yeah,
(28:02):
I know that they should have won that game. And
I'll be the first to tell you I was I
was wrong about Atlanta. I said under on season wins.
They have come out and shown uh some people here
that they don't They deserve more credit and more respect
than they're getting, just like Jacksonville this year, they definitely get,
you know, more respect than uh from me. Anyway, this
(28:24):
particular Cleveland Atlanta game. Earlier in the week, I found
a rogue three, so I actually took up put a
couple of bucks on Atlanta plus the three points. It's
down to one now, so it uh, the value is
definitely gone. But that's how much faith even I, even
I have in the land of this week against Cleveland.
So I think I should be a good game, high
(28:45):
scoring game. I'm recommending the first half over in that game. Uh,
there's like I said, there's another one that I overs.
I'm I'm kind of getting off full game. Or even
though I did bet a lot of money, I bet
thousands of dollars on these overs, I really wait for
later in the week to attack the over first half
and I put a little more strength into that first
(29:07):
half if I'm playing over in the game. Just a
random question for you here, crack Um, and we'll get
back to the matchups here. But this casey Tampa game,
where let's just say it's forty six for the sake
of argument, the total, and it's in Tampa right now.
The contingency plan is if Hurricane Ian is a factor,
they're gonna move it to Minneapolis. They're gonna play it
(29:27):
with the Vikings play. So let's say the total is
forty six in Tampa. How do you feel if the
total is forty six in Minneapolis, a neutral site. Where
would be the play if that were the case. Yeah,
And you know, you bring up a fantastic point. I
knew about this weather after I bet it. I didn't
realize it was it was going to affect the game
(29:49):
or not affect the game. I thinking that it's probably
not going to but just in case they can't get
the field there Sunday night in the right shape and
the weather is still um torrential, they're moving it. You
have to check what your line maker too. You have
to check the rules on the game, like where you
bet it. Does the game have to take place at
(30:12):
that particular home stadium or not? So that's another thing
that we have to check with the rules. Even myself,
I am not I should be schooled enough, but I
bet in everyone that's betting. Most people don't realize the
rules where the games take place. If it changes venues
as your bet null and void. So if it does
move move over to Uh, you said to me, and
(30:33):
that would you say Minnesota? That what you said? If
it does move Uh, that may affect the total and
I would I would say it's still the same two
teams playing. I would still recommend under however, we may
actually get an extra point or some or so because
our hand when when when when we come up with
the game, and me and I say, me and my
(30:55):
team come up with a game, we already we put
into the UH into our equation the team being home
Tampa Bay, and we say it's going to be nice weather,
especially you know Florida weather is probably be a nice one.
So I'll say the same thing about Minnesota. But you
actually may get an an additional point on on the
total there UH which which listen, if I can get
(31:18):
under forty seven, I'll bet it again. So it doesn't
really so at the bottom line is doesn't matter to me.
I'm looking forward to that. I like it. Okay, you've
mentioned the Jags in passing here. Let's dive into their game,
Jacksonville at Philadelphia Philly, one of the only two remaining
undefeated teams at least going into Thursday night. Hopefully the
Dolphins remain undefeated here crack I would love four and no,
(31:41):
but as of this recording here, the Eagles and the
Dolphins are both unbeaten. How about the Eagles minus six
and a half or six and a half point favorites
hosting Jacksonville, who just crushed to Chargers last week with
Herbert Blank, What do you think about Jacksonville and Philly
this weekend? Well, first of all, Jacksonville was made to
(32:02):
look a little bit better last week. I mean, here
you have thirty eight to ten and the coach they're
still playing a banged up Herbert you know, literally five
minutes lest I mean, this is this guy's your whole franchise,
and early in the year, you want to still playing
when they're down by twenty eight points. And I just
can't take the coaching staff of going talking about the
Chargers though, and they're decimated with injuries. Slater, Bosa Adland,
(32:25):
I can go on and on. Um you're talking about Jacksonville,
and they're definitely a better team than I thought. I
recommended the under early in the season, and I'll tell
you I'm definitely heading the wrong direction there. They're playing
a Philadelphia team that just maybe listen, I bet Philadelphia
to win the division. But I don't think even though
(32:49):
it's the third game now and every week I've said this,
I think Washington made them look better. I think Minnesota
with three turnovers in the red Zone cousins. I think
they made them look better the week before. I don't
know if Philadelphia is seven point you know it, literally
it's opened up seven and six and a half. You
can still buy plus seven minus twenty. I don't know
if Philadelphia deserves to be this big of a favorite,
(33:12):
even though they are home. Toughest stadium probably to play,
toughest fans, toughest fan base to play is the Eagles,
for sure, and their fans are really dedicated. Don't forget
they're the ones that throw the snowballs and saying, a
very tough crowd. Um. I just I would lean Jacksonville here.
I didn't bet them because I didn't get the seven again,
(33:32):
looking to bet against Philadelphia and and and Philadelphia has
probably maybe look bad this year talking about them, I
think this will be a big game for them, and
I look, I look for Jacksonville to probably keep this
one closer. We'll see what happens, We'll see what We're
gonna see what they're made of Jacksonville this week. Let's
go with one more here, Crack. We've got the Chargers
at the Texans as we speak, Texans five point home
(33:55):
dogs at bet MGM and I've got some good sources
over here that say you might be smelling, you might
be liking Lovey Smith and Company. Is that the case? Yeah,
you know this is It's listen. It's real simple. People
love to bet favorites. They love to bet like a
team like this money line. Um, they love to bet
(34:18):
the money line and their parley's which I'm not a
money line parlay guy, but they love to do that.
I would lean Houston here. I see plus two to
ones on money line, um, especially with the points now
now it opened up seven just for a second though,
just for a hair Sunday night, it opened up seven,
got hit right away, down to five. Um. If I
(34:39):
have to pick, you know, you guys know I don't
do a lot of sides, but I would stick to
I would like Houston here coming back home. Don't forget
the first week, that big collapse they had, even though
they didn't lose the game, they didn't win the game
vers the cold so um that then they then they
went to Denver I think and kind of would stay
within a touchdown, had a good defense, only a lot
of sixteen points. I would think coming back home here
(35:02):
they'll be a little more repaired especially like I said,
for this banged up Charger staff, and I think this
is a good opportunity for for Houston. Interesting stuff. Hey,
be sure to check out the new looking features in
the bed MGM app. It's fast and easy access to
the sports you love, whether it's live betting, the Daily
Lions Boost, or the cash out feature. New users can
(35:23):
use the code countdown for a special offer. Okay, make
sure you check us out. Sunday's Fox Sports Radios count
Down to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM Bill kracken Burger
breaking it down left and right. He just gave you
a bunch of plays you can cash in on. We'll
have even more for you on Sunday mornings. It'll be
with me Brian No also our guy Jeff Schwartz, eight
(35:46):
year NFL veteran. Three hours before kickoff, So if you're
thinking East Coast ten am until one pm Eastern Time,
that early kickoff time three hours get you all set
for all the action with picks and previews. Check us
out there,
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
Popular Podcasts
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.
24/7 News: The Latest
The latest news in 4 minutes updated every hour, every day.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.