Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM

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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Are you ready to
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(00:23):
up with the information you need to watch your team win.
Let's go. We're here to break it all down. Let's go,
Let's go. This is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet mg app. We're live from your tail game.
Here's Brian No, former Penn State All American, Rich Mornberger,

(00:45):
and Picks Wives lead Betty analyst Jared Smith. Oh, what's
going on? Everybody? Welcome in here. I'll tell you what, fellas.
I think our goal is to have a show a
day and a football Saturday that is not the equivalent
of Los Angeles Lakers. I think we should should have

(01:07):
that as ouch just heard on the updates say yeah
to a ten on the season worse than Colorado, you know,
by the way, just off the top of my head.
That leads to an interesting question, who would you say
is the Lakers of college football this season? A big expectations,

(01:28):
almost the equivalent record, But you gotta have big expectations
and horrid results. Does anybody pop in your mind there? Well,
I mean we haven't seen the whole Lakers season so far,
so I'll say Notre Dame. Oh you asked for that, Brian,
did your last week? You asked for that one? But

(01:49):
you see that wake up the Echoes against the top
five team last We did see that. I'm sorry. Yeah,
you know what. We're one minute in good o, absolutely
great here. You know what, we got some good matchups
here today, got a couple of ranked versus ranked matchups.

(02:11):
The highlight, of course is number four TCU at number
eighteen Texas TCU undefeated and their seven point underdogs against
the three lost team. And this is we'll get into
this a little bit later how the rankings can be
very misleading. But first off, in this particular matchup, what
stands out to me? Many things do, but one of

(02:31):
the things that stands out to me. Texas has started
fast and TCU has started slowly. TCU actually has four
come from behind wins when they trailed in the second half.
So for an undefeated team, the question is how long
can you sustain that recipe of success? It's gonna get tough.
Down here down the stretch, especially when you near that

(02:53):
finish line of getting a college football playoff Berth, sometimes
you grip a little bit tighter. So I'm really curious
if this repeats itself today. Wouldn't be surprised at all
if TCU faces a deficit in the second half as well. Yeah,
you know it was. Bill Parcels used to say, you
are what your record says you are. And like at
this point in the season, week eleven of the college
football season, if you're a slow starting football team and

(03:16):
have been for eleven weeks, well, chances are you're a
slow starting football team. So you're right, Brian. I mean
that those chickens can come home to roost against better
opponents in Texas. If there is a team on the
schedule which will or can derail the horn Frogs, it's
the long Horns, right. They're one of the last four

(03:38):
undefeated football programs in the country. And they're alongside Georgia,
Ohio State, and Michigan. None of those are surprises. All
of them were ranked in the top ten in the
a P preseason polling. Now we know that the polling
is what it is. It's not an accurate science. But
say what like on a yearly basis, it's somewhat seventy

(04:01):
percent accurate as to those teams that are gonna either
be one loss undefeated or two loss teams and they're
gonna hover near the top ten for the remainder of
the season. TCU wasn't even getting votes. They weren't even
one of the forty seven teams that even got one
vote to be included, uh in this ranking in the preseason.
So they've come out of nowhere, they've been able to sustain.

(04:24):
This is going to be their best chance to get
knocked off that platform here down the stretch of the season. Brian,
you're you're nailed it too with the eye test on
TCU starting slow, two and nine against the spread in
the first half. Wow, so not great. So Texas first half, huh,

(04:45):
Texas first half obviously good Texas full game. Wink wink,
nudge nudge for later. Get it probably now because the
sevens might not be there if you wait. Just putting
that out there, is that amazing. Just think about that
sentence right there against the number four ranked team. Get
the seven right now for Texas because it might not last.

(05:09):
Lay the seven now you might even have to pay
an extra five or ten cents for it. Now. I
saw that move starting to materialize yesterday and I quickly
went to my bed. Mgm Appen made the wager. Um,
but that's neither here nor there. What is here nor there?
We've been down this road before, guys. Last week, the

(05:31):
number one team in the country eight point underdogs, closed
around ten to the number three team in the country.
What happened in that game? Now, I don't think this
game is going to have the same vibe to it
as that one did, which was literally one team Georgia
just pummeling Tennessee into submission and Tennessee had nothing left

(05:53):
in the tank at the end of that. I mean,
you could just it was a very physical game. I
don't know if this game is going to be asked physical.
I think it will be physical. I think Texas Is
defense likes to play physical. And I've said his name
multiple times on the show this year, and I've rung
the bell for this guy all season. And this is
the game where it will matter more than most. Gary

(06:15):
Patterson's experience and savvy and guile on the Texas staff
will pay off in this game. I think more than
any other game on their schedule. He knows this TCU
offense better than anyone, and Pete Kwaikowski has done a
great job too. This Texas defense is well equipped to
hold this TCU offense and check a couple of housekeeping things.

(06:39):
Quentin Johnson questionable with than ankle injury a game time decision.
I think he'll play, but how effective will he be
and how much depth does TCU have behind him at
receiver if he's not. The answer is not a lot.
Max Dugan also a little nicked up with a calf injury.
This is the war of attrition that TCU has played
this year that they've been able to dodge every mind.

(07:02):
I don't know if they're going to be able to
dodge it today. I think today, especially based on the
points bread, is the day that it all kind of
explodes in their face. Yeah. And that's the other thing
I go back to, and we mentioned this on the
podcast Jared the Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM
podcast by the way, check it out. UM. I make
a baseball comparison with TCU because TCU, a big part

(07:25):
of their offensive success is the big play. They hit
big plays routinely. Do you have thirteen touchdowns of forty
plus yards this season? That's the most an FBS. And
if you look at against this Texas defense, which is
pretty good, really good defense, and coupled with the injuries
that you mattled rattled off with doug In and with Johnston,

(07:49):
how good are you offensively if you don't have the
big play. It's like a baseball team that hits a
bunch of home runs in June and July. It's like,
how good are you when you get to the playoffs
and it's cold and the ball is it flying out
of the stadium? And sometimes baseball teams have problems when
they don't have the home run ball that they rely
on so much. So I wonder about that with TCU today.

(08:13):
If they are relatively held in check and they're not
scoring forty plus yard touchdowns, how good is their offense?
And I think we're gonna get some answers today. Oh yeah,
we absolutely will. And it's a good thing to point
out that TCO really does rely on their downfield offense
and the best, uh, the best way to battle that

(08:34):
is with the big guys up front. And Texas defensive
line is one of the best units in the country. Uh,
they're the fourth best pass rushing Uh. They have the
fourth fourth best pass rushing rate in all of the
Power five teams in college football right now. Uh. And
they are are a tremendous front. I mean they got
a Jamo and Murphy and Coburn and Sweat. I mean

(08:58):
those guys are monsters up front. Means that you can
play those deep shell coverages. You know, cover to have
split safety coverage, keep everything in front of the defense.
Just let your four horsemen up front try to get
to dug In and try to get him to throw
off his spot. It's not always People always get confused.
It's like, well, they only sacked him once. You know,

(09:18):
he just had a bad night at quarterback. It's like,
who wa wha If he wants to stay in the
pocket and throw the football, or if he even is
one of those guys who can get on the edges
and improvise, but he's being chased for dear life while
he's doing it. Those pressures matter. You're pressure rating in
college football and in the NFL is just as important
as how many times you actually get that guy on

(09:40):
the ground. Yeah, that sets up longer yardage situations and
then second downs harder. If you get sacked on second down,
third downs harder it's an automatic punt, but getting pressure
on a quarterback, having him throw off his back foot,
having the timing be disrupted on routes down field, having
a situation where he can't see all the way through
the throw so he doesn't know if that safety is

(10:02):
starting to get a jump to get in front of
a receiver downfield. It creates turnovers. And so that's what
this Texas team does the best. Now on the other
side of this, TCU as a talented offensive wine top
twenty in pass blocking, top twenty and run blocking. So
it's strength on strength there a little bit. But if
I'm gonna put my money behind one unit, it's going

(10:22):
to be that Texas defensive line. I just wanted to
clarify one thing. Two and nine against the spread in
the first half was last year. They've only played nine
games this year. Their four and four against the spread
in the first half this year with one of the
games Tarleton not having a first half line, So in
the last two seasons six and thirteen against the spread
in the first half. Obviously, new regime this year was
sunny Dikes, so maybe a bit of a different spot.

(10:43):
So the numbers aren't as bad this year four and
four as I originally let on, but still not great
for a team that's fourth in the country. Not getting
off too great starts. That being said, I think the
TCU defense is also in for a route awake getting
in this game. And that's because over the last six weeks, again,
TCU has dodged every bullet that they could possibly dodge

(11:05):
on this schedule. They have faced in the last six
games five backup or third string quarterbacks Texas Tech backup quarterback,
Kansas State third string quarterback, Oklahoma State backup quarterback, Kansas
backup quarterback, Oklahoma backup quarterback. It just they've been very
fortunate to get to this spot. There is a reason

(11:27):
why the power ratings say the number four team in
the country is a seven now trending towards seven and
a half point road underdog against the team with three
losses against the team with two of those losses teams
that TCU beat. So it's just the market doesn't lie
about this stuff. Now, does that mean the game's over?
We should just all go home? Texas is gonna blow

(11:49):
them out and you know, hey, hookum horns, Matthew McConaughey, alright, alright, alright, No,
they gotta go play the game. And that that is
where things could go awry for Texas because we know
what we see with Texas. For example, last week, we
gave him out as our play today. Yeah, big win.
It was close. They were up eight team and Kansas

(12:09):
State had a chance to tie it in the fourth quarter.
Because Texas has had this problem with closing out games.
So while the market is clear indicator, like literally flashing
red lights in our face, go bet Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas, Texas,
they still have to go out and play the game,
and they still have to finish the job and close
out a team that has had nine lives like a

(12:30):
cat all year long. So we'll see how it plays out.
But the numbers, the analytics, the point spread, the market,
it all says Texas. We'll see how it plays out tonight. Yeah,
it's interesting. I always think about this with betting. Am
I betting on this team? Am I betting on Team
Ay as much as I'm betting against Team B you

(12:52):
know what I mean? And it's like I think a
lot of the Texas, people siding with them are more
so betting against TCU. I feel like, because you mentioned
it there, Jared Texas has found ways like the Los
Angeles Chargers of costing themselves games, and so I don't
know if you're fading TCU more than betting on Texas.

(13:16):
For the betting public out there, it's an interesting question
to ask yourself, by the way, Mr nicknames, do you
know what the nickname is? And I don't know this
for Tarleton, actually I don't even I'll look it up,
but you stomped me. Get the is there? Do we
have a family feud? Drop here? Survey says, yeah, I

(13:37):
got him, I got him Rich. Yeah, well, Brian, you're
you're obviously in a copy mode after Rich just totally
in the first minute. That was not I mean, nobody's
had their coffee yet. That was really I think you
even said hi yet, and you're already from the top apologize.

(14:01):
May be sure to check out the new looking features
in the bet MGM app. It's fast and easy access
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That's code countdown in the bet MGM app. All right,
We've got rich orin Berger, Mr Penn State All American

(14:23):
with his Irish shots here early in the show, Jared
Smith lead betting analysts from pis wise dot com. I'm
Brian No coming up next. You all know the phrase
rat poison. There is a phrase unveiled this week that
rivals rat poison in terms of prestige. If you will,

(14:44):
will we'll let you know about that. Coming up, it
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.
Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the nation. You're
locked into Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kid Call and
it's presented by bat MGM, the King of sports books.

(15:07):
Once again. Here's Brian No, rich Hornberger and Jared Smith.
Welcome back to Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff presented
by bet MGM. New users download the bet mgm app
today and use code countdown for a special offer. That's
code countdown in the bet MGM app. All right, let's
dive into this SEC matchup of the day. Oh that's right.

(15:33):
It is number nine Alabama against number eleven Old Miss
Bama with two losses. They are out of the college
football playoff race. They are most likely out of the
SEC Championship game race, which is does weird weird for Alabama.
They do find themselves as healthy eleven and a half

(15:54):
point favorites on the road at Old Miss, and I
see a lot of points and see a lot of
points in my crystal ball. The totals high sixty four
and a half. But Bama has allowed over five yards
her attempt on the ground this year. That's all Old
Miss does. They run it, they run it, they run
it some more. So I expect a lot of electricity

(16:15):
over there at Old Miss. I think they're gonna run
it pretty well. And I think Bama's offense gonna put
up points. I think the three of us could put
up points on Old Mrs defense nothing to write home about.
So I see this being a barn burner. What do
you guys see in this one? Yeah? I mean, look,
few teams run the ball more than Old Miss. The
Rebels have handed the ball off close to sixty five

(16:36):
percent of their plays offensively this season. That's the highest
rate in all of the Power five Conference. Uh, and
that's because they have one of college football's best true
freshman in the backfield at uh what's his name, Jenkins,
He's been absolutely unbelievable this season for them. Against this
Crimson Tide run defense, We're gonna see who's better. It's

(16:59):
gonna be a situation where it's, uh, you know exactly
what they're doing. They want to do it, They're gonna
get to it, and you just have to stop it. Now.
You said something there I disagree with slightly because what
if l s u falters right? What if they are
riding high off of all that emotion and they get

(17:19):
stomped by Arkansas. We've seen this happen all the time.
All of a sudden, Alabama is right back in that
SEC Championship game conversation. So yeah, you're not in control
of your own destiny here like we normally are used
to seeing Alabama. But they know what's at stake here
because any slip up from the Tigers faults you back
to the top. So, um, it's an important game, and

(17:42):
I think Saban uh you know, when when he's on
the uh on the hunt for a victory, he typically
gets them. This feels like a different year for Alabama.
But but yeah, that run game for all Miss, that
is no joke. Yeah, a couple of things here. Um
that Arkansas ELSU game is fascinated huge. Um that that

(18:05):
line is a little tighter than I think I would
have expected for l s U coming off. I don't
want to get too much down the rabbit hole there
or I guess the hog hole. Uh, maybe we can
maybe we can address that one at a later time.
But when it comes to Alabama. So this is like
the spot for next SA five and oh against the

(18:27):
spread in his last five games, awful loss, covering by
almost two touchdowns, including uh, just a beat down of
Mississippi State earlier this year in this exact same spot.
And I don't think the Bulldogs were even close to
sniffing the end zone in that game until the final drive.
I mean that was just obliteration from the start. Now
Missing a different animal than than Old Miss because of

(18:49):
just the offense that they run. Mississippi States offense is like,
it's like the perfect offense for Alabama to defend. I
don't know if Old MRS offense is as easy to
defend because of how physical they are at the line
of scrimmage. And let's be honest, Alabama's defensive numbers are
a little bit below the expectation. Their defensive line outside

(19:11):
the top boarding and adjusted line yards created outside the
top sixty in passing down stack great. That is very
surprising to me because they have dudes up front that
get after you in passing down situations. That is what
they live for, and they are outside of the top
sixty in sat great on those quote unquote passing down

(19:32):
those known passing situations. Now, oh miss ain't gonna throw
a hole, oh on. So it's how can Alabama's defensive
line hold up against the run. That's more will than skill,
and I do think they'll be up for this game.
On the other side, oh mrs defensive line can absolutely
be pushed around. They're outside the top eighty in that
adjusted line yards created category on defense. So Alabama left

(19:53):
right in center ja Mere Gibbs. You would expect him
to have a big role in this game. And I
think it's fair to say that Bryce is a little
bit banged up or something is off there. I don't
know what. Maybe it's thinking about the NFL. Maybe it's
just shoulder hurting and he's not as willing to run
and willing to use his legs, but there's definitely something

(20:15):
off with his play, and I think that's something to
watch this week. We'll see if it matters. We'll see
if Old Mrs Defense puts enough pressure on him to
make it matter. But I just I don't trust Old
Mrs you know, body of work. Their schedule was completely overborn.
Their best team that they played was ellis you I

(20:35):
mean was Tennessee and they got absolutely blasted in that game.
They couldn't cover against D and M despite the fact
that they ran left, right and center on them for
four yards. So I I don't know if I trust
either of these teams right now. I don't trust bam
It to cover a big number because their defense a
little bit wonky and Bryce Young's little off. And I
don't trust Old Miss two, you know, really stay in

(20:55):
this game with their physicality. So it's all about Lane
Kiffen and Nick Saban, right, It's always what comes down
to those two guys. Which one back to that and
that leads to what Lane Kiffin said he had a
gem this week. Of course, we all know about rat poison.
Nick Saban has made that phrase very famous where it's

(21:16):
basically talking about everybody's giving you your flowers, like, oh,
Alabama is the greatest Alabama, who's gonna beat them? And
he says that gets into your head. You start thinking
you're awesome, and then you let your guard down and
you lose. That's rat poison. Blane Kiffin has at the
opposite of that. Now Alabama is down, they've lost two
games already. They need help. But even if LSU stumbles

(21:39):
today against Arkansas, due to the head to head win
l S, you still ahead of Alabama. You need LSU
to lose twice in the SEC if you're Alabama. So
you have to wonder what the motivation is for Alabama
in territory that they're not used to. They're not used
to having two losses and being relatively out of the
SEC idle game picture and clearly out of the college

(22:02):
football playoff picture. And so Lane Kiffin said, that's goat fuel.
I love that. It's right up there with rat goat fuel. Say, hey,
what's Alabama's motivation? Are they ever gonna show up? Are
they even gonna care? Like when you start doubting them
on that level, I do think Nick Saban will have
this team ready to play. I do think there's gonna
be a lot of points today as well. But I

(22:23):
just don't see an Alabama team shrugging their collective shoulders saying, oh,
we're not gonna be in the college football playoff? Who cares.
I just don't think you're gonna see that today. And
you gotta remember like this, this team runs like a
like a high level bush league Major League baseball team
in terms of like if if you don't produce and

(22:45):
you're one of the understudies to the stars on this roster, uh,
Nick Saban will replace you in the transfer portal and recruitment. Like,
He's not afraid to make changes. He's gonna play the
best athletes and the guys that show the most will
to win, because that's all that's important in college football
to head coaches is winning. And so that's an important
aspect of this, not not necessarily for pride, but for jobs.

(23:09):
Like you know, when a head coach gets fired in
the NFL, everybody goes, okay, well they're gonna pack it in,
you know, whatever it is, the Carolina Panthers or you know,
name it. You know, if the Raiders make a move
of the Colts just recently, all of a sudden, that
very next week. There's still a dangerous animal. They're wounded animal,
but there's still dangerous. There's still a bunch of pros

(23:31):
out there. Same thing in college football, with these high
level programs, you'll see a lot of times a wounded
team get real dangerous late season. I can see that
being the Crimson Tide. Yeah. By the way, it was
old miss l s U. I'm off today with my
secs l. It was a blowout and that was the
only team that they faced. I mean that the Kentucky

(23:53):
game was a little bit. You know, Kentucky has a
slight pulse, but really that's the only team all mrs
played with a pulse this year, and it was it
was ugly. It was uglee. So Jason Daniels fest in
that one. Yeah, and listen, I think it's fair to
to look at Alabama's offense and say they can absolutely

(24:13):
do because Jay Daniels and and you know, there's not
a huge step up from Bryce Young. You know, I
think Bryce Young is better, but not infinitely better. I
think maybe Elise Who's got some better weapons on the outside.
And I could absolutely seet being the floor today for
Alabama's offense. That being said, the kipping thing was fascinating.

(24:36):
And again, this is the gamesmanship that goes into these
matchups because the one thing I love about the SEC
is every game is like an NFL game. And when
I say that, if the preamble to it, the amount
of coverage for for example, and Rich you you experienced
this at pent State. It was like this for a
little bit. Those press conferences midweek on the big weeks,

(24:59):
they're the hundred people in that press room. You don't
see that at every program in the country. It's only
a select few programs that have packed press rooms for
these pre you know, these these midweek press conferences that
are you know, pretty sleepy in terms of actual meeting,
but because of the amount of media that covers these
SEC programs, it's huge. So hundred people in in Lane

(25:20):
Kiffin's press conference this week, and of course everyone's asking
him to kind of, you know, dance on Nick Saban's grave.
That's what everyone's doing this week. Alabama Dynasty over blah
blah blah. And he downplayed it very well and he
did not give Nick Saban any of that goat fuel.
In fact, he was the one that coined the phrase
when Paul find Bomb texted him over the weekend after

(25:40):
Alabama law because Paul was trying to get the story
else you know, turned up and Lane Kiffin did a
fantastic job downplaying. Made it seem like they were just
facing a regular team this week, no big deal, not
facing your former boss, not facing Alabama that's coming off
a loss, and all the other you know, promp and
circumstance that goes on with a top twenty five sec matchup.
So I give Lane a lot of credit for not

(26:01):
taking the low hanging fruit and making this rivalry bigger
than what it really is, because right now it's pretty
one sided rivalry tords Alabama, despite the fact that this
is a very big game and link Kiffin's got all
that history. Of course, with the cripton tone. You know, guys,
we were talking about stinky lines earlier with that Texas
TCU game, right a higher ranked team that's an undock.

(26:24):
We've got another stinky line we're gonna get to coming
up next. But someone who's not stinky at all, especially
with the sports updates, that would be Isaac Lowen krawn
I low with the latest what's going on here? You
got to admit and good morning. By the way. Got
admit I got a little nervous when you it's around
this time you bring up the phrase stinky lines. I

(26:45):
started leaning to my left and right, sniffing my sweatshirt
just in case. But thankfully you pull. We actually have
live audio of men, by the way, but thankfully, as
always you pulled a well timed one eighty. We start
with a college football note number two, Ohio State get
me without running back Trevie on Henderson and receiver Jackson

(27:06):
Smith in jigma today at Indiana and starting right tackle
Dewan Jones. Additionally, is a game time decision on the field.
Friday night, eighth ranked USC edged Colorado fifty five to seventeen. Meanwhile,
up north of the l A Coliseum on FIGAROA, the
Sacramento Kings defeated the Los Angeles Lakers one to one

(27:27):
four teen. The Lakers without Lebron James because of a
groin injury, but they're now two and ten out of
five game losing street in Northern California. Steph Curry scored
forty in Golden States what oh six to wat oh
one victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers despite twenty nine points,
ten rebounds and nine assist from Donovan Mitchell. John Morant
scored twenty eight in Memphis is one fourteen to wat

(27:48):
oh three triumph over the Minnesota Timberwolves. Jayson Tatum scored
thirty four and Boston's one thirty one to one twelve
win over Denver. The Celtics now nine and three on
a five game winning street college troops on Friday night
on the flight deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln off
of San Diego. Number two Gonzaga rallied from a twelve
point deficit to beat Michigan State sixty four to sixty three,

(28:11):
and Temple upset sixteen rank Villanova to sixty four. Hold on,
gotta check one more thing. Alright, fine enough, back to you.
Everything's good. You always smell fantastic. Thank you. No one
questions that, especially in radio, that everybody smells amazing in radio,

(28:31):
no doubt smells like Fox Sports Radio Scoutdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet MGM. Let's dive into this k CC
matchup of the dank. Alright, so we've got number fifteen
North Carolina against unranked wake Forest. Wake Forest is favored

(28:53):
by four and a half a clear shot at North Carolina.
The betting line, the betting public. They're like you are,
the bum slayers of college football. Tar Heels. They got
waxed by Notre Dame. That the only team that's any
good that they've played this year. They've barely survived. Listen
to this on the road their last three games, one

(29:13):
by three at Virginia, one by three at Duke, one
by three at Miami. They're barely getting by Yeah, underdog
today at Wake Forest. The total, by the way, is
seventy eight. And if you're thinking about the under a
little tap on their shoulder. These teams combined for a

(29:34):
hundred and thirteen points. Last season. It was fifty eight
to fifty five North Carolina one, So don't be shocked
if you see a lot of fireworks today as well. Yeah,
I mean, this one sort of feels like North Carolina
they're gonna score more no matter what. They're just gonna
find a way. Um. But at the same time, Wake

(29:55):
Forest isn't gonna turn it over a million times. You know,
they do down occasionally, um, but if they can keep
it clean, I do think that this is just going
to be a shootout, just a race to the finish line.
But it does feel like if if if you and
he's gonna win, it's gonna be because this offense just

(30:18):
isn't stopped. And so yeah, I don't know, I'm leaning
North Carolina in this one. Yeah, little Lane, little Hornburger
lean right there now, Jared, you've got a great trend
for this one. Let's dive into this here. Oh yeah,
let's get trendy alright, So what is the the great

(30:42):
trend here in this one? And it actually holds true
for a couple of games today because I think that
Washington Oregon game might be at this total as well.
So seventy two are higher totals this season and last season.
The last two seasons, the under is twenty and six
in those games. So I know it seems like a

(31:05):
high screen and I get it. I totally get it.
But when it's expected to be this high, sometimes it
falls short of those expectations. I mean, that's a seventy
century and I know the sample size isn't that big,
it's only two seasons, but I didn't want to go
back further than that, because, let's be honest, the game
has continued to evolve more towards offenses with every passing year.

(31:27):
So I think the further you go back in this trend,
the less totals you'll find in the in the load
of mid seventies, which is really where I prefer the
weather to be out here in Vegas, not in the
load of mid forties, which is what it was this
morning when I walked my doll. But back to the
the task at hand here, I mean you kind of
hinted at it right the point spread with an undefeated

(31:49):
or excuse me, and had one loss top twenty team
against an unranked Wakeforce, and it's Wake that's not only
a favorite, but the lines moving in their direction. The market,
just like TCU Texas, just like Georgia, Tennessee, the market
kind of tells you where maybe you should be looking first.

(32:09):
Now again, does that mean this is game's over? We
should all go home. Waits the right side bing bang
boom and Mac Brown's crying in his in his you know,
man cave later. No, that's not what I'm saying. You
still have to play the game. But when you look
at the game from a matchups perspective, I could absolutely
see U n c S defense really struggling here. They
don't force as many turnovers as Louisville and NC State

(32:33):
do and wait, Waits turn it over eleven times in
two weeks. I mean, it's almost like they were putting
Chrisco on the ball before the game. Like I I
don't know how you could justify that. Now. To be fair,
the quote unquote expected turnover margin in that stretch was
significantly lower. Less than half of those turnovers were quote

(32:55):
unquote expected based on how the play was developing. I
don't know how they come up with that algorithm, but
that's what the nerds tell us here. So I question
a lot of those turnovers, and I question U n
ss ability to force turnovers. They've only forced ten all season,
and again for perspective, Wakes turned it over more times

(33:16):
in the last two weeks than UNC has forced all
season in nine games. So there's a there's a balance
there that needs to be struck. I don't think Wake's
gonna be as sloppy. I don't think UNC is gonna
be as opportunistic. And this tar Heels team, the strength
of schedule is bad. One of the most prominent college
football ratings professors in our industry has this tar Heels

(33:37):
team outside of his top four. They are not a
good team. They are a team that has been fortunate
with their schedule and with some of their quarterback play.
Let's be honest, if mac Brown didn't have Drake May
this year, mac Brown might not be employed. Still, he
might have quit. I mean, I just he's been literally
the only bright spot on this u n C team,

(34:00):
especially on the offense. The defense has been a disaster.
So we'll see how wakes offense plays. Maybe the slow
mesh returns this week. Return to the mesh. I have
a feeling u MC is not gonna be as feisty
defensively as the wolf Pack and and Cardinals have been
over the last two weeks. I will say, real flat fast,
I'm glad you gave Drake May his flowers. The quarterbacks

(34:26):
he is collectively North Carolina as a squad, I don't
think they deserve a whole lot of flowers. But Drake
May individually, absolutely very sound young quarterback, very very good.
And I'm interested to see the stat lines of the
two quarterbacks in this one, you know, because they could
be gaudy. Should be gaudy. So there you go, total

(34:46):
seventy eight. We'll see how that goes. Okay, we are
often running. We got rich orin Burger, Penn State, All American.
We've got Jared Smith from picks wise dot Com. He's
their lead betting analyst. I'm Brian Now coming up next?
Who is it? Is it? Who's the guy in Looney Tunes? Yosemite? Sam? Right?
That's always hunting, you know what I mean figuratively, That's

(35:09):
what Jared Smith is doing when it comes to underdogs, right,
He's always got his eye on the money line underdogs
over here, we'll get some advice. Coming up. It is
Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. Hey,
what's up everybody? It's me three time pro bowler Lavarrington
and I couldn't be more excited to announce a podcast

(35:30):
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along with my fellow pro bowler t J. Hushman's OTTA
and Super Bowl Champion. That's right, Plexico Burds. You can
only name a show with that type of talent on it.
Up on Game. We're going to be sharing our real
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or wherever you get your podcast from. Kickoffs are coming, Sue,
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Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bett MGM, the

(36:17):
King of Sports Books. Once again. Here's Brian no, Rich
Hornberger and Jared Spitch. Are you Jill Ah? We are
two hours and ten minutes away from kickoff. It is
Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.

(36:38):
No time to waste, let's dive on it. Check this
out our late letter. Yes, our parlay Platter is brought
to you by bet MGM. Earn a fifty dollar bonus
by signing into bet mgm and clicking on refer a
friend to invite a friend, and just a few simple steps,
both you and your friend will receive a fifty dollar
bonus bet MGM, the King of sports its books, the

(37:01):
King of Parlay's Jared Smith. We roll out the red
carpet for you and your parlay platter. Maybe a little
top ten upset here, I see yeah, I'm taking a
bit of a shot here and listen, We're taking shots
every week with these now. And you know our weeks
of our chances of hitting one dwindling by the day,
by the week. Um. But that's why we only put

(37:24):
a little half unit sprinkle, and that's why we like
to take shots swing for the fences. Right. So this
first game Arkansas L. S U. Noon start, Eastern time.
UM in week whoo, pick SUEI love the mascot, love
the fight song, love all the things involved with Arkansas.
I think this is just a letdown game, and this

(37:44):
is one of those stinky lines that just looks a
little funky. I don't have a lot of analytical reasons
why Arkansas is gonna win this game. I don't have
a lot of, you know, solid data points to tell
you why L. S U is gonna lose. But the
line is curiously short in a game where I would
like to see a little bit more distance between what
else you just did to Alabama and what Arkansas just

(38:05):
did against Liberty last week. So it's the classic leftdown
bounce back spot. Instead of taking the three and a
half points with the Hogs, we will take the money line. Yes,
top ten upset. This is obviously the biggest long shot
on my card today. UM. I like that first of all,
everyone's betting Oregon and the line has not yet touched fourteen.

(38:25):
And that makes a scratch your your your your chinney
chin chin, because you're like why and we'll get into
this game. I'm sure more later, But why is Oregon
getting all this money and all these bets and we're
not seeing it move towards that key number of fourteen.
So I think there's a little bit of liability with
the Ducks this week. And you know me, I like
to be on the side of the sports books. If
they need a game to hit, I would prefer to

(38:47):
be on their side. And Washington to me, has the
passing game that can keep this game closed. Do I
think they can win it out right? Probably not, but
I like them to cover the spread and I think
they're going to be in this game, so I'll take
a chance that we get an upset. Of all the
of all the top ten teams today playing, I think
organ is the one that if you want to play

(39:09):
a money line on the other side, that would be
the underdog that I would want to take. San Diego State.
We're just talking about this game. Rich, I know you're
gonna be calling it later. I'm curious your thoughts. Jalen
Maiden has been absolutely fantastic and he's a safety right
but his efficiency since since he's come in to the
starting lineup has been unbelievable. There three and one, And
I know that game against Fresnel was wild. Jay Kaner

(39:30):
came back late and you could have argued that the
assets should be four and oh. And I think there's
a little bit of a letdown vibe with this San
Jose State team emotionally. And I hate to say it
because it's a tough situation with you know, one of
their own passing away in a tragic way and and
you know, coming having that game canceled, coming back, but
they've really kind of been on fumes the last two
weeks against two really bad Mountain West oponents, and I

(39:51):
think it could all kind of, you know, come on
apart raveling if if they get pushed around a little
bit up front today, which is what San Diego State
can do. So that's the money on parlay. San Diego
State Washington Arkansas twenty four to one, almost wins about
twelve hundred and change. So good luck, have fun, and

(40:12):
go light. It's parlay. Probably gonna lose, but we're gonna
have fun doing it. We're hungry, we are hungry for more.
I do like that you have not let off the
gas pedal on this. I mean, I can give you
a three minus three D money lines and we can
make fifty bucks on a fifty dollar parlay. But where's
the fun in that. We're gonna do that? Yeah? Yeah,

(40:32):
you don't go to the crabs table. Let's say, just
bet on six. You say, go, but I do bet
on six, But I also go four and ten. And
I pressed the hell out of him after Have you
lost your mind with San Diego State? Yet? Here? Rich?
Are they keeping you saying? Oh? I mean, dude, this
team it's been a wild ride this season. But I'm

(40:52):
enjoying it. That's good, man, that's good. That's awesome. Alright,
comeing up next, How college football lies to us? Fox
Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot
com and within the I Heart Radio app. Search f
s R to listen live. Oh what's going on? Everybody?

(41:13):
Welcome in here. I hope you're having a fantastic Saturday morning.
Get y'all set for Week eleven of the college football season.
That's amazing right there. Now, Rich, are we gonna start
off each hour talking smack about the Irish on the show.
That's not what I'm gonna do. I'm not gonna do
that to you. I'm not gonna do that to Irish
fans everywhere. I've got a lot of respect for, honestly,

(41:37):
what they've been able to do at the mid season
point with a turnaround. I think, uh, I think that
the way things were trending early looked like this season
could go right down the tubes. And they've made somewhat
of a recovery. And we were just making a simple comparison, Brian,
You said, you know who's the lakers of college football?

(41:58):
And I said Irish. Someone got to him during the
commercial break. I'm convinced a booster paid him off something.
I said, Well, someone texting, you know, Rich, we are
and something like that happened. All of a sudden, the
wheels got grease. Wearing a four leaf clover broach. That's right. Absolutely,

(42:25):
there's a Rudy poster in the background. Amazing trans he's
a golden dover. Now, why are you wearing a navy
and gold card? Again, I don't know it's just a
little drafty in here, is it? Is it let down
city for that against Navy today, I'm seeing some money
on the dog here, and I know that's not on
the list of games. We can absolutely make room for

(42:45):
the What are you see there? Mr? No, I need
the Notre Dame vibe because I'm hearing underdog upset, you know,
let down maybe with the Irish today, Hey man, you
never know. We see it in college football all the
time where you have that emotional win. Notre Dame beat
the top five team and Clemson punked them, smacked them around.

(43:06):
And now against Navy, who's three and six neutral site
game over there in Baltimore, Right, Notre Dame is seventeen
point favorite. Yeah, maybe a little bit sleepy, but I'll
give you the cliffs notes version. Notre Dame's running game
has been freaking weird this year because they could not
run it consistently at all at the beginning of the season,
and now they're just running over teams to run over

(43:27):
Clemson the way they did when they were up what
to seven late and they knew Clemson knew Notre Dame
was running the football and running it and running it,
and they still couldn't stop them. I'm just surprised that
Notre Dame's running game has looked as weird as it
has bad at the beginning of the year and so
good as of late. It's been a weird year. Yeah, yeah,

(43:48):
I'll tell you what. What's what's amazing to me is
just how they've been able to hold it together, like
you know, honestly, you know, when you have a start
the way Notre Dame has had, you could have a
unit pack it in for the year. I mean, and
especially in college football the way it's going now a
big time programs, and Notre Dame undoubtedly is a big
time program. You can have certain players all of a

(44:10):
sudden get eyes for the transfer portal, you know, so
it can get I mean, you lose to Ohio State,
that's a huge game, but you lose by a slim
margin on the road at the Horseshoe. Okay, so nobody's
turned their nose up at that, But then you follow
it up with a loss at Marshall. I mean, it
was looking I don't know, it was just looking a

(44:31):
little bit dour there for a while, and they held together.
Marcus Freeman has done a nice job I I he's
made a believer out of me in terms of whether
or not he's he has this stuff to be a
head coach. There's no doubt in my mind there. What
happens for the rest of the season obviously still up
in there. But Navy they should handle Navy. Let's be honest,

(44:52):
they should. Yeah. The numbers say that I have say
they should win by at least eighteen points based off
of the ratings that I have, and so the line
that's seventeen right now seems pretty fair. It's probably not
a bet I would It's not a game that I
would bet today. But I have seen a lot of
people that I trust in our little circle of the
you know, sports gambling media peeps. Um look to the

(45:14):
dog there, and I think there's a lot of let down,
situational vibes that go against Notre Dame. But let's be honest.
I watched the Navy game last week because we foolishly
bet the over in the Air Force game to try
to there you go against the trend. Yeah, it was
Shamus versus the trend last week and the trend one.
But there there is there is some there's some problems

(45:37):
with Navy's offense. I just I don't see them scoring
a lot today unless they just run the fumble rowskis
and the you know, the the pitchy pitchy woo woos
and all the trick plays and all the option gimmicks
that get them, you know, offense. But it's I think
it's a tough ask today for Navy. They are outmanned
by a ton of poundage up front. Absolutely are It's

(46:00):
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
Let's get into this, fellas, where college football how they
lie to us? They lie, and specifically it is the rankings.
If you look at the college football playoff rankings, the
best example is that the number four team in the country, TCU,
they are seven point underdogs today at Texas, And so

(46:23):
it's like, wait a minute, the number four team that's
undefeated is a seven point underdog. It's like, yeah, that's
exactly right. So I think of it like this, and
you mentioned it rich the saying of saying so with
Bill parcelves, you are what your record says you are.
That's what the playoff rankings are. They tell you what
you've done to this point. Now I add and this

(46:44):
is how Vegas thinks of it. To the Bill Parcelves
famous quote, you are what your record says you are
dot dot dot to this point. So if you take TCU,
for instance, they are ranked number four because of what
they've done to this point. But are they that team
going forward? And that's where Vegas raises its hand. That's

(47:05):
where the betting community races it's hand and says, uh,
not convinced. So it's really interesting how those two worlds
blend together. But make no mistake about it, the way
the ranking set up it is the Bill parcelves you
are what your record says you are, and it has
no indication of where things might go next. That's what
Vegas is for, and and that's the ultimate decider, the

(47:28):
ultimate sniff test. At the end of the season, when
this committee has to defend their rationality, they can point
to the record and say, well, isn't this what it's
all about. Isn't this a bottom line business? Aren't we talking? Man? Yeah?
I understand how a two loss LSU team could be
ranked ahead of a USC further down the board. Uh

(47:50):
with one loss, you know, and you talk about strength
the schedule and in those circumstances, and we could get
into that too. But but at the top of the
tippy top of the board, like when you're going through
one through four, what do all these things have in common? Georgia,
Ohio State, Michigan, TCU, they all have a zero in
the in the lost column. And so I just I

(48:10):
just feel like if you're if you're gonna defend rationality
while at the same time, because we know that this
is all made for TV, trying to generate buzz, get
people like us talking about this on the radio. Is
tc you worthy of being one of the top four
teams in the country. Well, we'll see against the Longhorns

(48:32):
this weekend next. You know, It's just it's it's made
for TV, it's made for radio, it's it's supposed it's
doing exactly what it's supposed to do. And it's also
defendable because again that is an undefeated football team. Yeah,
I I agree, it's all for us, it's all for show.

(48:53):
It's kind of like the Trojan horse, right, not to
put the tro not to bring the Trojans into this.
Don't get me started on their game fight Lincoln Riley,
just why you're running up the score Bud, You're up
thirty three. They were running their two minute offense and
and someone on Twitter was like, oh, well he would.

(49:15):
They were trying to get live game reps against Colorado.
It was Colorado's second stringers. You're better off facing your
backups in practice. There, Lincoln had some boosters that probably
had some money on the game. And I don't want
to go further than that, but the rankings. If you
think these these coaches don't know the point spreads, take

(49:39):
your flamingo head and take it out of the Sandpeople
they know the point spreads, try to be These boosters
bet the games more than we do. Um. The rankings
are all reality TV Richie. You could not have put
it better. There's four teams in the top four and
they all have one thing in common. It's the only
thing they have in common. That's right, because because I'll

(50:02):
be honest, if you did this in terms of the
quote unquote gambling ratings, it would be Georgia Ohio State,
then it would be Alabama three, and then you'd have
a debate for four. Yeah, all the ratings people that
I talked to have Alabama third best team in the country. Oregon,
Tennessee probably neck and neck for four. I think you

(50:23):
can make an argument for either. That's Michigan. TCU wouldn't
even be in the top five, so you just have
to put that into consideration. Now, the good news is
Michigan and how they played each other. That takes care
of one piece of the puzzle TCU. Let's be honest,

(50:44):
I would be very surprised if they won this game today.
That should take care of the other part of the equation.
But there is still one very difficult thing to work out,
and right now the committee is setting us up for
what I think is going to be the biggest question
of this cycle. Tennessee or Oregan. How do you judge
those teams? How do you judge Oregon winning their conference

(51:07):
championship in a weaker conference than Tennessee, going eleven and
one in the better conference and having wins over Alabama
and l s U. Yeah, really tough to grade that.
That's gonna be the sticking point I think of this cycle. Now,
of course, Chaos couldn't sue. Oregon could lose today to Washington.
I have it in my parlay. Of course, Tennessee. I

(51:27):
don't think they're going to lose, but they're not playing
in their conference championship games, so that's gonna be a
tough grade. And then you've got what if Michigan and
Ohio State is this absolute instant classic over time. Do
you downgrade one of those teams so much that they
fall out of the top four. I don't know the
answers to those questions, but I can't tell you this
TCU is the one sore thumb that I think will
get clipped this week. Well here's the thing, though, getting

(51:51):
back to the rankings, this is the best way to
do it. I can't imagine if you had the actual
rankings where Alabama is number three in the country. You
know what I mean with two losses. The best way
to do it is what you've done to this point
instead of where things are headed. So I think this
is it's almost like separating church and state in a

(52:13):
way where the rankings have to be what you've actually
done to this point, because these games have to matter,
results have to matter. That's where Vegas, that's where the
sports books, that's where all of that where it's heading
next is what that is for. But it makes way
more sense to me that TCUs ranked number four right
now even though they might not be going forward, but

(52:33):
to this point they are. Then it does have Bama
number three, you know what I mean, Like you have
to do it based on what has happened, you know.
And I also don't mind being lied to when it's uh,
when it's not an important lie. Like you know how
sometimes you're having a conversation with somebody who yeah, or
or like somebody who's telling you a story about their night,
and you know they're embellishing truths because you were there

(52:56):
for part of it and they kind of forgot that
you were there. May exactly, but everybody's been there, well
their buddies telling a story and you're like, well, that
didn't happen that way. Well, that didn't happen that way,
and that didn't happen that way. But this is a
better story the way he's telling it, So I'm alone

(53:16):
for the ride. That's what the College Football Playoff franking
is in. It's a better story if you tell it
this way. So yeah, I get it. TCU probably not
a top four team Alabama in terms of strength of
schedule and how close they've kept it with other teams
and blah blah blah blah. Maybe they belong in the
top four. But it isn't that way because on paper,
when you look at it, you know these these you

(53:39):
know CFP committee members, you know they're they're they're taking
their their glasses off and they're rubbing their weary eyes
and they're saying to themselves, like, how can we justify
the horn frogs. It's staring at them directly in the face.
They have a zero in the lost column. So you
can go to print, you can send it out to
all the the news media, the sports media, and everybody's

(54:02):
gonna say, well, I mean, I guess, and it's a
storyline for a week, and it's a better story than
the other way around, So I don't mind it. I'm
standing next to my buddy telling the story and I'm
smiling because I know there's some FIBs in there, but
I'm enjoying the ride. Yeah, Rich, that is a very

(54:22):
very poigned way of putting it. Because as much as
gambling and all of the things that we do on
a weekly basis in the gambling markets are at its
core to make money, I'm not in that realm. I
think if you've listened to this show long enough, now
you know that I'm not a professional gambler. I don't

(54:44):
rely on my bets for money. There is an entertainment
value to what we do on a weekly basis, and
I don't think any of our listeners are a hundred
in the gambling space opening up their apps every week
because they're gonna pay their rent with that money. They
want to be entertained when they're watching the games. That's
what we provide with some of the bets. We hope

(55:06):
to win. We're always trying to win, We're not trying
to lose. But there is a level of honesty that
comes to these rankings. You're you're right, it is kind
of this, you know raw, this is what it is,
but it probably isn't and we're gonna get there eventually.
I think the committee at their core probably knows their
naive to think TC is a top four team. But

(55:28):
you're right, there is a level of entertainment that goes
along with this process that we follow on a weekly
basis that I think the rankings also kind of merrit Now,
the fascinating thing here is when we go to twelve
twelve teams for the College from playoff, this problem will
be alleviated a little bit because Alabama would be in
and there's no question about it. Now, I know you can, oh, well,

(55:50):
the difference beteen twelve and thirteen, you can make that distinction, Well,
the thirteen team in the country probably has no chance
of actually winning the College Will Will playoff. So really
it's how do we get the field right and how
do we include a team like Alabama that clearly deserves
to be in the conversation, but because of some extenuating
circumstances schedule and of course a couple of tough losses

(56:10):
where let's be honest, they were ahead in the final
seconds and it took you know, comebacks in both games
for them to lose against really good teams, how do
we get Alabama into this conversation? You can't with four.
With twelve, it's an easy it's it's an easy call
to make, even though there's gonna be plenty of one
lost teams left out of that twelve team playoff, and
they're gonna be like, well, Pamma's lost two games, blah
blah blah. So I think there's a lot of discussions

(56:32):
to be had, But at its core, you're right, Rich,
this is an entertainment product and it's pretty darn entertaining
when you put the undefeated team in the top four
and then they get beat because everyone loves quote unquote upsets.
By the way, tc you losing this week would not
be an upset. I just add the little cherry on top.
I was just thinking that this has to be maddening

(56:53):
for the committee if you really think about it, because
we we've kind of assumed that they don't think about
where this is headed. They might they they might not
be sold on TCU going forward, but you have to
rank them on where they are right now. You know
that that's what makes more sense. Pick a state of choice.
We'll use Indiana for instance. If you're driving seventy miles

(57:15):
per hour in Indiana, if someone says, hey, where are
you right now, you'd say Indiana. If you drive that
that speed for the next nine hours, you're no longer
going to be in Indiana. Like. That's how the polls
are right now. TCU is number four. They're in Indiana
right like, But if they keep driving the way that
they're going, they're not going to remain there. The Committee

(57:36):
might not be oblivious to that, it's just they have
to rank them where they are right now. That's the
only way you can do it. Really, Yeah, the story
is unfinished, and you gotta give you gotta give credence
to consistency because they've been consistent on this. They they
rate and value uh having an undefeated season higher than
most other intangible qualities about football teams, like well, where

(58:00):
their defense ranked, Well, that doesn't matter. Well it does matter, Yeah,
it does if they had the same record or or
one if we're comparing them one loss against another one
lost team. But they have something that those one lost
teams don't have, which is an undefeated season. And they've
been consistent on that. They've always rated undefeated teams in

(58:20):
Power five conferences ahead of the rest of the pack.
And we saw with Cincinnati even a group of five
team can elevate if they keep it perfect. So they've
been consistent on that point. And I'm not saying it's
pretty or it's right, or it works. It doesn't, but
it is entertaining. And I think that is the same
way betters and and sports books are looking to make money.

(58:43):
They are too, but they're looking to make television money.
And the way you do that is increasing interest in
the way you do that make it a story and
they have because, Hey, every time you make a wager
at bet MGM, you earn bet MGM rewards points that
can be redeemed for things like free bets and risk
free tokens that can also be converted to MGM rewards

(59:04):
points that could be used towards dining shows and hotel
rooms at over twenty MGM resorts. All right, we've got
rich Orinburger, Penn State, all American. We've got Jared Smith,
lead betting analysts from picks wise dot Com. I am
Brian though, coming up next to a little hurry up offense. Huh.
A lot of games, a lot of games on this
late today. Some quick notes on a few of them,

(59:26):
including maybe the best team in all the land? How
many points does their opponents scored? Today? We'll have that
for you. It's Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented
by bet MGM. Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in
the nation. You're locked into Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to

(59:47):
Kickoff Touchdown, and it's presented by bat MGM, the King
of sports books once again. Here's Brian no, Rich Ornberger
and Jared Smith. It is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff,
presented by bet MGM. Earn a fifty dollar bonus by
signing into bet MGM and clicking on refer a friend

(01:00:09):
to invite a friend and in just a few simple steps,
but you and your friend will receive a fifty dollar bonus.
Bet MGM, the King of sports books, the King of Parlay's. Alright,
couple of quickies. Here, guys, the number one team of
the country Georgia at Mississippi States. You got Georgia, healthy favorite,
healthy favorite over here, favored by sixteen and a half.

(01:00:31):
The question I have Mississippi States offense against another outstanding defense.
How many points did they score? Because they have not
scored a lot of points against better defense, especially against
Alabama only six points scored. That was at the very
end of the game to avoid a shutout. Against Las
you only sixteen points against Kentucky only seventeen points. So

(01:00:54):
against Georgia today, I can't expect the Mike Leach offense
to be exactly sick today. Yeah, you know. I will
say this though about Mississippi State's defense. UH. Defensive coordinator
Zacharnett difficult defense to prepare for. Uh, it's the three, three,
five lot of movement, a lot of pressure. You know.

(01:01:15):
So if there is a one off where I could
see Georgia maybe struggle to put some points up or
be confounded by certain things offensively early, will they get
figured out? Yeah, yeah, the Bulldogs will, you know, they'll
they'll handle this. But I I this could be one
of those games where first half, maybe it's low scoring,
maybe it's closer, but um, that's the only feather in

(01:01:39):
the cap you could really give to Misstate. Otherwise, you know,
Georgia is going to continue to roll here. I don't
see this as being much of a roadblock. Yeah, a
little tricky line movement here, and again we don't use
the line movement as gospel. It's just kind of a
guy almost like a you know, like the lighthouse that
guides you into rocky walls. But I will say this,

(01:02:02):
George's not taking the money. It's been mostly Mississippi State money,
and the lines moved in the favor of Mississippi State.
So nothing fishy to talk about. But stark Vegas maybe
tough spot let down vibes. I mean, I'm trying to
make a case for Missippi State to keep this close
situationally would be the only reason why, because I think

(01:02:24):
the data says George is the best team in the country.
How many points? How many points from Mississippi State today, Jared?
What do you say? I mean they scored six against
the Alabama and Alabama's defense significantly worse than Misssippi State. Now,
Alabama's defense is kind of built to defend this this
strange Mississippi State sideline to sideline horizontal offense. Maybe George

(01:02:45):
is a little more up tempo with their defensive schemes,
but I would say less than seven, maybe ten max? Okay, alright, Rich?
How many points from Mississippi State today? Yeah, I don't
think they reached double digits. Less than ten okay, Um,
I think gets it's a touchdown or it's two field goals,
something like that. So six or seven points, it's just look,

(01:03:07):
I mean, George's pass rush especially, is emerging at the
exact right time. We want to make this late season
push and depend on your defense feasting up front. Uh So, Yeah,
I I don't see much of a glimmer of hope
for Mississippi State. Here give me thirteen. Wow, they're taking
me over, like strictly garbage time points something. Yeah, let's

(01:03:29):
strip out garbage time, because if it's fifty to seven,
no no stripping out there. Yeah uh yeah, by the way,
real fast here, let's do this. Nebraska at number three, Michigan,
Michigan favored by thirty and a half at bed MGM.

(01:03:49):
I love this quote from Jim Harbob Michigan's head coach.
He was talking about star running back Blake Coreum and
he's talking about core Um winning the Heisman said be
hard to imagine that he wouldn't win it, win the
Heisman Trophy. And I love this quote. He said, There's
been quite a few backs who have won the Heisman Trophy.
And I would bet my truck that Blake Coreum is

(01:04:11):
on pace or ahead of many of those running backs
that have won that Heisman Trophy. Who have those teams faced?
Mr Harball, Yeah yeah, and how prolific were those quarterbacks?
That's I mean, Korum's right there in the odds, But
I don't see. Yeah, I don't either. Look, I mean,
is this gonna be a big win? Will Korum run

(01:04:31):
wild on Nebraska? He's yeah, this is gonna be absolutely
I mean, turn this one off at halftime and take
a shower it's gonna be rob it. But but yeah,
I mean, I mean, is he gonna win the oddsman? No?
Probably not. But I love Jim Harball because he says
something every single week that's quotable, and then we put

(01:04:53):
it up there and then we fire holes through it,
and then next week he just tosses the next clay pigeon.
And what do you think hardballs? Like? Do you think
he drives a Ford f one fifty? I don't want
to ruin any spotters that Fox has, but what kind
of Chevy GMC, something with a dual axle and something

(01:05:14):
with a heavy I'm pulling stump side of the ground
in my backyard. What are you doing with you? To
see him driving around and armor and his eight cylinder heavy.
I would like one of those little four cylinder trucks,
you know, like the small Crest guy in there, Brian,
I'd like the Ranger Like, yeah, let's just leave it

(01:05:38):
at this. The line with the line in this game
went from thirty, So Blake Corum probably sitting at halftime because,
let's be honest, Michigan State's got bigger or Michigan's got
bigger fish Fried. They actually have a big game next
weekend's Illinois. It would be a good running back showdown
in that one next week for sure. All right, we're
gonna follow the money coming up next. But right now

(01:05:59):
we followed the sports up date with Mr Isaac Glow
and chronic guy who does not need a shower at
half time? Anything. What's going on? We actually have a
Jim Harbaugh truck update for coming up in just a
few moments. We will start by getting you ready for
today's action. Second ranked Ohio State running back treyvie On

(01:06:19):
Henderson and receiver Jackson Smith in JIGBA out today at
Indiana for the Buckeyes. Starting right tackle Dwan Jones is
a game time decision on the field. On Friday night,
eighth ranked usc defeated Colorado fifty five to seventeen in
the NBA. On Friday night, the Sacramento Kings defeated the
Lakers in Los Angeles one one fourteen, Lakers without Lebron

(01:06:40):
James because of a goin injury. There now two and
ten on a five game losing streak. Steph Curry scored
forty in Golden States what Oh six to one on
one victory over the Cleveland Cavaliers thirty four for Jason
Tatum as Boston best in Denver one thirty one to
one twelve. The Celtics on a five game winning streak.
There are now nine and three overall in Major League Baseball.

(01:07:01):
ESPN reported this morning that Houston Astros reliever Raphael Montero
has agreed to a three year, thirty four million dollar extension.
Now here's the Jim Harbaugh truck update. Picture it nineteen
seventy Jim Harbaugh was hit by a mail truck. Let

(01:07:22):
no what. He was six years old. He was chasing
a ball into the street and he got hit by
a mail truck. He broke his leg had a cast on.
But here's the rest of the story. As the late
Paul Harpy would say, uh, let me see if I

(01:07:43):
can do my math right. Forty seven years later, he
reunited with the guy who hit him. Stop it stop.
The guy find out that that nugget did he hunt
them down. And here's the other thing. The guy who
had him turned out to be a life insurance salesman

(01:08:04):
and he tweeted and add for the guy's life insurance
UH company, tweeting out his phone numbers and turns in
the college fotball playoff. Indeed back to you. That's your
Jim Harmon truck update. Great stuff. That was okay. I
think Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
We cover all bases over here. Shout out to Isaac

(01:08:26):
Lowancron right there. Let's dive into this. Now follow the money.
All right, we are following the money with Shamus McGee,
our friend here, team lead of sports trading at bet MGM,
does a fantastic job. Good morning, Shamus. I always want
to know what stands out to you more, and you've

(01:08:46):
had You've done a great job of detailing the woes
in college football, right like whoa this line or WHOA
this line movement? What is catching your eye today? I
think it's the game it has to be done. Game
of the day with TCU at Texas. It'sney Renew. You
get the number four team, undefeated on the road, catching
a touchdown and we're still seeing some money coming in

(01:09:09):
on the TCU money line and a pretty balanced book.
I'd say on that spread, there's nothing really sharp about
this game, but I'd say some some public money is
definitely coming to the the TCU money line. But That's definitely
one that caught my eye just from the jump right there.
That's interesting, Sjamus, because I would have expected Texas to
be the sharper side in this spot. And I guess

(01:09:32):
the follow up would be, is the committee right on TCU?
Because I heard people on some other networks say that
they should be on upset alert this week, and let's
be honest that that they need to look at the
points break because TCU can't be on upset alert as
a seven point underdog. But is it possible that maybe
there's a little more love in the market for the
horn Frogs than I give them credit for. I'll always

(01:09:56):
trust the betting markets opinion over that's college Football Playoffs committee. Um,
this line tells you. I mean, I think Texas is
a better team than TCU, But I mean, when it
comes to the committee's job, I think they do have
to be fair at some point. This is an undefeated
Power five team. If they run to the table, they're
going to go to the playoffs. No matter how much

(01:10:18):
better Alabama is than TCU, They're going to get the
spot over them. Um, that's just the way it is.
But so while I do think I think the point
spreads should matter a little bit to what the committee thinks,
like how much do you what do you think the
line is going to be in this semifinal game, for example.
But in a way that's also like not really their jobs,

(01:10:38):
So it's a it's a little bit of give and take. Yeah,
I'm I'm looking at where the line opened on the
L s U Arkansas game. It went from one and
a half and it's creeped up to three and a
half in terms of the favorites Tigers over the Razorbacks.
So the market doesn't believe in the emotional letdown for

(01:11:00):
L s U after the big win of Obama, do
you I certainly think it's the thing because elis us
back on everyone's radar. Everyone's ready to write off Brian
Kelly as soon as they lost Week one to Florida State,
but they've been They've got smashed by Tennessee, but they've
quietly picked up some good wins. You know, all Miss
win was big, the Alabama win was huge. Now they're

(01:11:21):
back on everyone's radar. And I think there's certain teams
the public just falls in love with, like brands. L
s U and them were L s US good people.
Are love them, They're gonna want to bet them. So
I think you're definitely seeing that we're gonna need Arkansas
pretty big. Um. Missouri right now is still our biggest
need against Tennessee, but close behind them is Arkansas. A

(01:11:41):
lot of action coming in on this game. He Shamus McGee,
team lead of sports trading at bed MGM. I don't
know if this question makes any sense, Shamous, So you
can smack me around if it doesn't. But how often
do results from other games affect the bets here and now?
And I just have Tennessee mind where earlier in the

(01:12:01):
season they were a big underdog at against Alabama and
they want so there was money line money coming in
on them. Just last week they were a big money
line underdog and they got smacked around by Georgia. So
does that have any impact on this TCU Texas game?
Impacting the money line money coming in on TCU? It's

(01:12:26):
hard to ignore like previous results like that. But but
then again, it's also apples and oranges. Tennessee plays in
the SEC, Alabama's and George's in there and tc the
Big twelve is just a lot of it's It's a
mess right now. The Big twelve where somehow you have
to about nine or ten weeks we have TCU sitting

(01:12:47):
under season first place. Um, the market kind of agrees
that Texas is probably a top fifteen, maybe a top
ten team in the country. Really that they just haven't
been getting any of these results to go their way. UM,
it is a little I get, I get, I understand
the question, but it's a little different just because t
is a completely different team. M Yeah, if you take

(01:13:08):
the whole body of work with Texas, I mean the
games that they lost were heartbreakers, games that they had leads,
in games that they were controlling the tempo, in games
that their starting quarterback got hurt in. I mean it's
and I think you have to look at that whole
body of work. At least the ratings have to account
for that, whereas the College Fotball Committee can just look

(01:13:29):
at the standings and say power five undefeated, let's put
him in and again it will shape itself out. Today
I think will be the first notch in that belt.
Speaking of a mess, the A C C is an
absolute mess. And I think this wakeforcet U n C
line is evident of that U n C is eight
and one undefeated in the conference. They are on the
road against the team that has turned it over eleven
times in the last two weeks and have looked absolutely lifeless.

(01:13:51):
Yet not only are the bad lifeless team favored the
lines moving in their direction. I'm assuming we're seeing a
lot of unranked favorite vibes where the market's telling you
wake Forest is the right side in this game. Shame
is am I wrong? You're definitely right. Um, It's it's
pretty much been all wake Force, at least on the

(01:14:12):
money line coming in, and in a slight majority on
the minus four and a half coming in. But we
definitely took sharp money on minus three and a half
earlier in the week, and the sharper side is even
on the over in this game. We opened up seventy
six and a half and just today this line is
crept up to seventy nine now, so defense optional. In
UH now pop up, it's seventy nine and climbing. So

(01:14:37):
it's but I think you're definitely right with the with
the line thing with wake Forest, it's definitely uh sharps
and squares on the same side of this one. Shamus.
You know you mentioned that alis U is a team
that doesn't surprise you that people love to bet on
when they get hot. Is there a team or teams
this season that you've seen an a typical surge in

(01:14:57):
the handle on them, right, that's surprised you because they're
not usually a popular team at the window. Oh, it
has to be the Jayhawks this year, Sandas. This is
probably the I said in the office day, this is
the first week I think this year we haven't desperately
needed whoever is playing Kansas to win. And it's a
it's a weird spot too because they're they're still pretty

(01:15:19):
alive to make the Big twelve championship game, but they're
they're catching about three and a half at Texas Tech.
So it's a strange low handle on that game. I
guess it's just basketball season now, so everyone's kind of
forgotten about it. But before you go shamous, Uh, how
do we get rich today? What's dead? Yeah? So I
flew a little too close to the sun last week.

(01:15:41):
Shame against the machine, famous on you. So I think
I've got to give the people what they want with
an fcs FBS, although a little little different than what
I usually do. Give me New Mexico State laying three
touchdown was against Lamar today. Wow, Okay, stay with me here.

(01:16:04):
They tragically had the homecoming postponed against San Jose State.
They gotta buy. Then they get a huge win last
week over you Mass on the road, they come back.
It's a de facto homecoming game. Lamar is not a
good FCS team. They're one and eight on the year,
and I think it's just gonna be for the for
the fans in attendants. It's going to be an atmosphere

(01:16:25):
where they're gonna really want to yell win this game.
I think they're gonna want to run up the score. Okay,
that's the play. Let's go in New Mexico State. Love it, Shamus.
I always appreciate your time. Man, enjoyed the day. We'll
catch you later. Thanks guys, Thank you. Shamus McGee, team
lead of sports trading at bet MGM. Awesome stuff. All right,
We've got rich Arin Burger Penn State, All American with

(01:16:47):
the shaped clavital. We've got Jared Smith lead betting analysts
from picks wise dot com. It's got too equally uh
non shaven clavicles. Right, I'm no do you ever think
you'd be described like that Jared here we are. He's
got really equal collar bones. I hadn't shave. I don't

(01:17:09):
shave period anymore. So I'm kind of grizzy grizzly Adams
these days. Very nice, Hey, cover it up next. The
start could be way different than the finish. We'll explain.
It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.
Dead sick kickoffs are coming soon and we're leading you

(01:17:34):
up to that. This is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to
Kickoff presented by bett MGM. The kick of sports books
once again. Here's Brian no, Rich Hornberger and Jared spit. Yes,
it is Fox Sports Radio's count Down to Kickoff presented

(01:17:57):
by bet MGM. Be sure to follow bet m g
M across all socials at bed MGM. Dive into this
not live yet live betting. All right, So are forecasting
here where thinking of how these games might start off,
where we could take advantage of in game lines, right,

(01:18:21):
making in game vets here, So Chared will start with
you quickly. Anything you're forecasting today? Which game you have
your eye on? I mean I think it's that total right,
the wake U n C game. Yeah, and I gave
out the trend that you know, totals this high trend under.
But clearly the Sharp's un afraid of that trend because

(01:18:43):
I'm seeing, you know, on shore it's still hovering s
seventy nine, but the offshore markets tend to be the indicators,
and I'm seeing it's moving up. So maybe if it
starts slow, maybe you get seventy five, maybe you get
seventy four. But clearly there will be point in this game.
So anything you can get under seventy eight and a half,

(01:19:04):
which seems to be the consensus number right now, I
would absolutely consider the over. I like that. I like that,
you know what I'm looking at your fighting Irish. If
you h if you love the Irish today but you're
not in love with covering up sixteen and a half,
Here's the one thing I could say about them is

(01:19:24):
they are a good second half team offensively. Uh, if
you look at just last game as an indication of this,
it was three touchdowns against Clemson in the fourth quarter alone,
twenty one point scored by the the Irish. So yeah,
I mean, if you're in love with the Irish today
but you just don't want to touch it at sixteen

(01:19:45):
and a half. If this game starts slow and that
that comes down a little bit, jump all over it
and they'll make you, uh, they'll make you look really
right in the second half against Navy today. There you go.
I've got my eye on the l. S U. Arkansas game.
The total is sixty one and a half. We've got
icy conditions over there. The goal posts has some ice

(01:20:05):
on it. There's snow field. Yeah, so I'm thinking possibly
an end game under Maybe this game starts fast and
it just starts to slow down. L S you emotional
win last week. Maybe they aren't a sharp. Maybe it's
a little bit of a By the way, Brian, you've
given so many gems to our group chat. Thank you,
thank you. Appreciate live no live betting, no changing my

(01:20:30):
Twitter handle. Absolutely all right. Coming up next the coach.
That was a joke at the beginning of the season,
not anymore. We'll have details. Fox Sports Radio has the
best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of
our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within
the I Heart Radio app search f s R to
listen live. Oh what's going on? Everybody? We are less

(01:20:53):
than an hour before a kickoff over here on Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown the Kickoff, presented by Bett and g M.
You know, to start off this hour, I thought we'd
start with the tweet. Jimmy checked in and said, not Sam,
it's Elmer Fudd, who's always hunting. I had in the show.
I went, Yosemite Sam. Isn't Yosemite Sam hunting though I

(01:21:16):
know he's got the guns and he's shooting the floor.
Is he not hunting though? He's more he's more of
the rack and rack environment that that's Yosemite. So yeah,
he's the gun slinger. He's like the wild wild West,
big old mustache. Yeah, yeah, Fud, I don't know what

(01:21:39):
that was. That was Yosemite. Sam was your seven and
and and fun. He's hunting, that's right. Yeah, Elmer Fudd
is always funny. Because the comparison was Jared Smith is
hunting underdogs. He's looking through the point spreads, trying to
hone in on underdogs. And so, yeah, you're right. I

(01:21:59):
think Yosemite is way more fun than Elmer Fudd. But
if you're going for the hunting thing, we're going for accuracy.
We're going it's like we're the committee. If we're going
for entertainment, it's sit saying we're going for accuracy. It's
the point spreads and Elmer Fuddy. Yeah, Yosemite is um Vegas, right,
Elmer Fudd is the college Football Playoff Committee there. You

(01:22:21):
just like that. None of those rabbits stick the carrots
inside the double barrel shot in the tailpipe. Yeah, terrible
trick right there. Okay, well, so we've got number seven
L s U at Arkansas and so Arkansas just a
three and a half point home underdog. Here L s

(01:22:43):
U with the huge mammoth win last week against Bama
at home. Brian Kelly, the l s U head coach,
he goes for two. He was aggressive, it paid off,
they got it. They got the win. Now they're sitting
pretty there. Unless they screw it up, they're gonna be
in the SEC championship game because they've beaten both Old
Miss and Alabama. Those are the two teams chasing them

(01:23:05):
in the SEC West. And it has changed dramatically for
Brian Kelly. He was getting clowned that first game of
the year they lost to Florida State, and you give
it a couple of months. Now of a sudden, Florida
State has ranked. That loss doesn't look that bad at all,
especially after you've beaten Ole Miss and Alabama. Those are

(01:23:27):
the last two games that L s U has played.
They've won both of them, and they're in a great
spot right now with Arkansas U A B and Texas
A and M to close the schedule this year. Yeah,
they are in the cat bird seat, as they say,
if if the Tigers win out and they find a
way to beat Georgia in that title game we were
just talking about, they will ultimately be in the playoff

(01:23:51):
as an eleven and two SEC champion. There's no question
about it, which is wild because a two lost team
has never been invited to the playoffs during this eight
year history. Again, going back to what we were talking
about in the second hour of the show, if the
college football Playoff Committee has been consistent about one thing
and one thing only, it's been win loss records. Typically

(01:24:14):
you're going to see undefeated seasons take precedent over one
loss UH conference champions even, but this is different because
strength of schedule really matters in this argument. So you know,
it's it's really their destinies in their own hands. Now,
the question is gonna be can they handle it? You know,

(01:24:35):
can you handle rolling off those two huge wins, and
last week was a huge win. You mentioned the two
point conversion. This feels like a little bit of an
emotional trap game on the road against Arkansas. Yeah, and
also the weather you you mentioned it, Brian, I did
not know that it could get that cold in Arkansas.
I'm unfamiliar with the terrain and the topography there in Fayetteville,

(01:25:00):
but clearly, I mean I'm seeing I just looked up
the weather report thirty degrees and it's also Central time zone.
If I'm mistaken, I think it's Central time zone, so
it's an eleven a m. Start time. I mean that
you want to talk about making the spot even more

(01:25:20):
difficult for L s U, which, by the way, is
a passing offense that has to deal with a brisk, cold,
windy slightly wind. I'm seeing eleven mile an hour sustained
winds in what is the most difficult letdown spot of
their season after beating Alabama. I mean, I understand why

(01:25:40):
the sharp money is favoring the Hogs here despite their
defense being awful. I mean, their defensive numbers this year
for Arkansas are just bottom feeder, outside the top one
ten an e p A pri play. There's only a
hundred and thirty one teams in the FBS. Their team
one twelve at of one thirty one in e P

(01:26:02):
A P play one twenty against the run. Now, again,
L s U doesn't run it as much as your
other teams will. They put them ball on Daniel's hands.
He runs it a little bit, but this is a
passing offense at L s US core and they want
Jaden to kind of run the show. But man, I
could start to see why this game might be a
little closer than the experts think. And if you're looking

(01:26:24):
at the rankings and you're seeing top ten L s
U against un ranked Arkansas and the point spreads just
a hair over three, you might be fooled by some
of that rankings nonsense. But I kind of like Arkansas
on the spot there in the parlay. Yeah whoo, pig sue.
They're right there. And the total has ticked down a

(01:26:47):
little bit, obviously due to the weather. So it's at
sixty and a half right now. That's not like a
thirty nine point point spread that you'll see in the
NFL from time to time. Sixty and a half still
a lot of points, but due to the weather. It
has ticked down a couple of points, so we'll see
how that shakes out as well. We gotta get to
the game of the evening TCU and Texas. We've talked

(01:27:10):
about it before, but there are so many tasty morsels
on this one. Number four TCU undefeated against number eighteen Texas,
who's six and three. I love one of the quotes
from TCU head coach Sonny Dikes this week. He said,
I do think there's extra motivation when you play against
the big brand team, whether it's Oklahoma, whether it's Texas.
They've got a lot of Twitter followers, TikTok followers, all

(01:27:33):
that that is I need in my ear right now.
I love that he's just aware of it. It's great.
Yeah exactly, I'm gonna you know, is it like a
sarcastic like TikTok? Like did he how did he say?
What was the tone there? It had to be there's
a little Southern draw right there, you know, talk out

(01:27:56):
the Yeah, that's how would have said it. Yeah. Also
love running back matchup in this wood Man be Jean Robinson.
We all know about him, flat out stud for Texas
and Kendre Miller quietly the TC running back over a
thousand yards already, He's only a hundred and twenty yards

(01:28:18):
behind Bijean Robinson. That's it, So Ken Trey Miller. He
could be a big factor in tonight's game as well,
depending on the health status. Like you guys of detail,
dug in a little bit uh not one and Johnston
the stud wide receiver he's not a hundred percent either.
So if you're able to run the ball effectively, that
takes pressure off both of those guys. Yeah, yeah, no

(01:28:39):
question about it. Look, you know, it's really gonna come
down to the battle up front. A lot of games do,
but um, especially this one. I mean when you look
at Texas main strength. UM, we talked about this a
little bit earlier. It's their pass rush. It's what those
four guys up front for them do, not only in
the passing game. I shouldn't I shouldn't underrate how well

(01:29:02):
they played in the run game too. You look at
some of the advanced metrics on this Texas uh defensive line. UM,
in terms of average depth of tackle in the run game,
it's under four yards, which is astounding, um because that
means they're limiting explosive plays and it's week eleven of

(01:29:23):
the season, so this is a large sample size. Now,
tc USE offensive line they're good. Uh, there's no other
way to put it. At the pass block well, they
run block well, and you mentioned it. They have a
better run game than I think they get credit for
because the past game with Dougan and Johnston gets a
lot of the the highlight reel material going. But yeah,

(01:29:44):
this is gonna be strength on strength. Who's going to
blink first? The offensive line for the horn Frogs or
the defensive line for the long Horns. Yeah, it's such
a fun matchup. And I think when you look at
tc USE offense, So the best defense that TCU has
played this year was Kansas State, at least metrically, and

(01:30:05):
in the first quarter of that game, they were held
in check. In the first half of that game, they
were held in check one of their worst half of
offensive football all year. And then the quarterback situation just
unraveled for Kansas State. Martinez got hurt, Howard got hurt
towards the end of the game. I think it was
from the second half on. I forget the exact moment

(01:30:26):
that Howard went out put on the first drive, it
was Martinez out and then Howard went out, and then
for the majority of the game and the majority, I
think the entirety of the second half, they were facing
a third string quarterback. Let's be honest, if Adrian Martinez
or even Will Howard stays healthy in that game, TCU
probably already has a loss, and this game has a
completely different vibe to it. And again they faced the

(01:30:50):
backup quarterback. I got the number wrong. It wasn't five.
It was four of their last six games. The Oklahoma
State game they did face Spencer Sanders, but Oklahoma, Kansas State, Kansas.
I mean, they have gotten very fortunate. And of course
last week Texas, Texas starting quarterback went out about midway
through the game. So there's there's just a lot of
things that I can look at with this TCU defense

(01:31:11):
and say, man, when you see Bijon Robinson and Queen Yours,
that's talk about talent wise, hands down the most talented
crop of offensive I guess besides the Alabama you know
running back quarterback that you might be in the country
in terms of the the upside there with yours and
Bijean Robinson. So I'm just I'm fascinated to see how

(01:31:32):
TCUs defense handles that and if they can hold up,
because they didn't hold up against Deuce Fawn in Kansas State.
They gave up a ton of points to Kansas, they
gave up a ton of points to a lot of
other offenses like Oklahoma State. That I don't put them
in the same ilk as the Texas talent. So I
just I think TCUs defense, as much as their offense,

(01:31:54):
is going to keep them in this game. I think
the defense is really what's gonna push this really to
the longhorn side. I think it's a great way to
look at it because if TCU is eight and one,
they just have one loss, which they easily could have.
As you detailed, Jared, at this point we look at
them a much a lot differently than them being undefeated

(01:32:17):
and nine, and it's just a different deal. So I
think that's a great exercises. How would you feel about
TCU if they were eight and one, If you're gung
ho on taking the seven points and I'm going with TCU,
how would you feel about them Texas beats Alabama? That's true,
you know you could also I think of the other
the side of the coin here is are you sold

(01:32:39):
on Texas because I know and you detailed the metrics
and all the measurements and all of that with Texas,
they do measure better than TCU. That's fine. But at
the heart of it, are you are you sold on
Texas because let's run down their resume real fast. Lost
to Texas Tech. Had a nice lead on the road
against Oklahoma State, lost it completely, gave up the lead,

(01:33:01):
lost that game. They had a big lead on Kansas
State last week and held on for dear life. They
barely beat Iowa State. Like, there are a lot of
holes int in Texas resume as well. It's that just
TCU here, Yeah, you know, I mean, what is it
outside of Alabama? They've won all their home games though,
you know that that's something to talk about because look,

(01:33:24):
you know, when you have is this one a night game?
Yet it's a seven thirty kick when you have when
you have that stadium packed in with a team now
not as good as you know past teams. Obviously, this
isn't the Vince Young led Texas UH program during the
Reggie Bush years that use USC It's not. It's not that,
but I mean it's a team making a turnaround of

(01:33:46):
sorts that that's a tough place to win. That's the
other aspect of this, especially in college football with inexperienced
players and road offenses, dealing with crowd noise in a
packed one hundred thousand seats stadium like that matters too.
And this is a team that went right down to
the wire and you'll have a lot along horn fans

(01:34:08):
complaining about the officiating during that game with Alabama and
that's their only loss at home. UM, So there's that
aspect of this too. Against against the horn Frocks. They
got to handle the elements coming into coming into that stadium.
There's so many little things that TCU has to overcome

(01:34:29):
in this game. And that's why this line is what
it is. And I know and it's it's gonna be
a tough it's gonna be a tough pill to swallow.
If TCU comes in here and just you know, blows
the doors off the Horns, I don't see that happening.
And I just I don't see t c us body

(01:34:49):
of work in the same way that I guess the
committee does. And the point spread agrees. But again, they
still have to go out and play this game. And
that's the part at you mentioned Rich Texas has had
issues closing out games and that's why this isn't the
lock of the year. First of all, I would never
give out a lock of the year, and but it,

(01:35:12):
like usually, the indicators here are so bullish towards the
Longhorns that this would be a very large wager for
me if it wasn't for the fact that I'm not
making very large wages in college football this year because
of how volatile these markets are and how difficult it
is to win on a weekly basis. And TCU has
avoided every possible minefield in their path. This is a

(01:35:35):
tough one. There's a lot of artillery that they're going
to have to dodge in this game in order to
come out on the positive side. And I think this
line's gonna close north of seven. I do. I'm already
seeing it trend that way. I'm seeing a couple of
shops at seven and a half now, and I think
seven minus one twenty probably is the consensus at this stage. Hey,

(01:35:56):
be sure to check out the new looking features in
the bed MGM app. It's fast and easy access us
to the sports you love, whether it's live betting, the
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users use the code Countdown for a special offer. That's
Code Countdown in the bet MGM app. We still have
a lot to do, a ton to do. We've got
Rich orn Berger, he loves to cook the Penn State

(01:36:17):
all American. We've got Jared Smith, lead betting analysts from
picks wise dot com. He loves to walk his dog.
I'm buying. I love to play guitar. And rewatch Um
Wayne's World. I don't know No. My favorite Rewatchable movie
is A Training Day. Love Training Day in Washington. You

(01:36:37):
can watch that one on a loop, all right. Coming
up next, a game featuring a player that is turned
in one of the most surprising performances this college football season.
It's Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off, presented by
bet MGM. Ye, Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in

(01:37:05):
the nation. You're locked into Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to
Kickoff Touchdown and it's presented by bat MGM, the King
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(01:37:27):
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We are only thirty five beasly minutes away until kickoff.
Let's do this next Pack twelve matchup of the day,
all right. It is number Washington against number six Oregon.

(01:37:52):
Oregon eight and one on the season. They are at
twelve and a half point favorite at bet MGM in
this one. Hey to me, guys. One of the most
surprising performances this entire college football season's gotta be boat knicks.
If you look at the Oregon quarterback. I'll just go
a year by year touchdowns, interceptions, just one thing to
look at. So when he was at Auburn freshman year

(01:38:14):
sixteen touchdown, six picks. Okay, he's a freshman sophomore twelve
and seven. Last season eleven and three. That's that's it
for the season games this season touchdown passes, five interceptions.
His completion percentage has jumped up quite a bit too.

(01:38:34):
He averaged fifty nine point four completion rate at Oregon
and I'm sorry at Auburn. At Oregon this year it's
over seventy three. He's been tremendous so far this season.
I'm curious how he plays today. Michael Pennox Jr. The
Washington quarterback, he throws it all over the freaking place.
But boat Knicks has done a very good job of

(01:38:56):
just sticking to what he does well. He uses his legs,
He's been very efficient in the passing game. So I
would just stick with that, stick with what you do
best instead of trying to match yards and points and
whatever with Michael Penix Jr. I would expect boat Nick's
to be good again today. How about this expecting good
stuff from bow Nicks? Yeah, good bow, bad bow. I'm

(01:39:17):
I'm thinking good bow shows up today. And also, the
one thing you can say about this Oregon Ducks team
that you couldn't say about some in the past is
the fact that they have a willingness and ability to
run the football, and that has been a huge aspect
of their offense. Washington really doesn't, by the way, rossing
Washington's run game has yet to show up this season.

(01:39:38):
Much of the offense has been around Panics throwing the
football downfield, and if you look at Washington over the
course of their season, you can probably say, well, they've
held you know, teams like Coal and Oregon State to
twenty one points, and you know they can they can
limit some of the scoring against. But then you take
a look past just the stats in you look at

(01:40:00):
those games. They were weather games and they benefited the
Washington defense. So you're talking about a Huskies team with
a defense that really stops no One in the past game.
From their secondary standpoint, they have to really lean heavily
on their defensive line to get a pass rush. When
they have success, they struggle stopping the run. Um. Yeah,
I I like Oregon in this spot. I like how

(01:40:23):
bo Nix has played. I don't think here's another one.
Aside from like the point spreads and things like that,
I don't think Oregon loses again this season. Big game
next week against Utah, that's really the that's really the decider.
It's Judgment Day in the Pac twelve next week, then

(01:40:46):
the Utes and the Ducks. So I learned something this
week about this specific matchup. Washington actually considers Oregon a
bigger rivals. Washington a bigger rival than they do. They're
in state keys, right, Oregon freaking hates Washing. Yeah, and

(01:41:06):
it goes both ways. I did not know that I
would never have guessed that. I would have always considered
the Apple cop Washington, Washington State. And I don't even
know what they're calling it these days, political correctness, but
the game between Oregon and Organs League. But the numbers
here are starting to paint a pretty clear picture that
these teams are moving in opposite direction. Organs five and
oh a t s and their last five, Washington oh

(01:41:28):
and five a t s in their last five. And
that's after starting four and oh. So the market says
these two teams are starting to separate from the median.
Oregans moving way up in the ratings and Washington's moving
way down. Well, that means it's time to buy alow
on the Huskies, right, That's all. That's what that means now.

(01:41:49):
I think the matchups here absolutely favorable work. I can't
I don't care how much contrarian blood I have in
my body. I can't deny that the Huskies are awful
against the past. They're not great against the run either.
The defensive line. The defensive line doesn't create a ton
of movement, and I think they're only hope in this

(01:42:10):
game is that Bonix doesn't quite play up to expectation.
But let's live in a reality for a minute that
Washington's offense sets the tone early and puts a little
pressure on Oregon, because let's be honest, Oregon hasn't really
been pushed a whole lot this year. And when the

(01:42:32):
stakes get higher, it's Kenny Dillingham, it's Bonix, it's Dan Landing.
These are guys that haven't been in those spots before.
I'm not saying Washington has. Calonda Bore and Michael Padox haven't.
But like I said, I'm seeing a lot of blowouts
for Oregon. They haven't been close in a game since
that Washington State game, and let's be honest, that game

(01:42:54):
was absolutely bananas. Oregon could have absolutely lost that game.
It was pick six, it is fluke turnover, it was
this and that. So, but they haven't played a close
game in the fourth quarter in two months. So what
happens if Washington's offense does what I think that they
are capable of doing, which is to get some points
and to put up some yards on on Oregon defense

(01:43:16):
that also struggles against the past and is a little
bit thin in the secondary. Is this game close in
the fourth quarter? And if so, does the pressure get
to the Ducks. With that massive game next week and
the college football Playoff all dangling out there for Eugene
Nation to swallow up. It's gonna be a fun one

(01:43:37):
in Austin today, that's for sure. I'm gonna give you,
uh the tight sphincter theory here, Listen, that matters. These
are eighteen to two year old kids. That's it. It
is part of it. This is what I'm thinking. What
are the reasons I like Oregon is because they're in
chase mode their number six right now. If you're not

(01:43:58):
in the top that's fair, right, So I like the
thought of them being aggressive. Hey, it's not good enough
to just win. We've got to win with a little
bit of style, a little bit of the zazz. They're
in aggressive mode. Where you look at some of the
teams in the top four, it's like the prefit defense.
We've got a lead, let's not screw it up, right,
So sometimes you can be passive to a fault. You're

(01:44:20):
not gonna have that with TCU at Texas today, obviously, right.
But it's just being in the top four versus being
outside the top four, and sometimes those teams outside the
top four they can be a little bit more aggressive
than the team's currently that have a seat at the table.
You know what, the Ducks they played four common opponents

(01:44:41):
with the Huskies so far this season, and they've they've
scored on average eight more points against those opponents than
the Huskies, I would say last last season. Overall, when
you look at all of the analytics, it's screamed that
Oregon was overrated before they got absolutely OpEd by Utah

(01:45:01):
uh twice. But you know, I mean it, it was
it was pretty obvious like that that the world that
the world thought of Oregon one way and then everything
caught up with them by the time they ran into
that buzz saw. But I'm not gonna say that a
top five ranking for for Oregon at this point in
the season is warranted. But top ten, absolutely, they're not overrated.

(01:45:25):
I could see this one, you know, similar to what
you're saying about being in the Chase seat, about looking
at uh needing the style points in a win, especially
before playing that that that judgment day match up against
Utah and avenging what happened last year next week. I
could see this being a runaway victory for the Ducks. Really,

(01:45:48):
I really could I could see this being and it
could be high scoring. I'm not saying panics will completely fade.
You know, this could be one of those games though,
where you know, we see very few punts, we see
the Ducks really controlling the game offensively with their run
game and their passing attack, and and this, this, I mean,
this total will even be blown away. I think, especially

(01:46:10):
in a rivalry game too, because yeah, it's absolutely true
these two teams are big rivals. You're also going to
try to embarrass the other side. So whoever whoever has
the lead, and I think it'll be the Ducks is
going to win by a landslide. Yeah, the feeling we're
gonna be on opposite sides and this in the rapid man,
Yeah I hear. Basically just laid that one out. I

(01:46:33):
definitely hear what you're saying. But what a great spot
to wreck your rival season if you're the Huskies. Yeah,
that's very true. Yeah, yeah, I think about it. From that,
this game is gonna be really fun. I think I'm
more excited about. I think this game in TC Texas
are my two favorite games. You're not looking forward to
Navy and Notre Dame in less, although I will say

(01:46:54):
New Mexico State Lamar is climbing up the rankings very quickly.
Welcome to betting. You know these dog bats. It's a
lot more interesting, all right. We gotta a switch gears.
Welcome in here, Mr Isaac loewen Kron. He is a
renaissance man. He is a pursuer of fine tasting wines,

(01:47:16):
and he has a sports update for us here. I
love including several glasses already this morning. This morning, NFL
Players Association President J. C. Trader has issued a statement
in which he calls for the immediate replacement and ban
of all silt film turf. Silt film turf is a
type of synthetic turf the Trader says is associated with

(01:47:40):
higher injury rates than all other types of surfaces. Trader
says that silt film turf is used to the home
stadiums of the Saints, Vikings, Bengals, cult Lions, as well
as the Giants and Jets. In college football, second ranked
Ohio State running back Trevion Henderson, as well as receiver
Jackson Smith and Jig But will not play today at Indiana.

(01:48:02):
Starting right tackle Dwan Jones is a game time decision.
Kickoff coming up at the top of the hour. NBA
Friday night, the Sacramento Kings defeated the Lakers in Los
Angeles one to one four teen Lakers without Lebron James
because of a groin injury there now too and ten
on a five game losing streak. Steph Curry scored forty
as Golden State got past Cleveland one oh six to

(01:48:22):
one oh one. Boston's Jason Tatum scored thirty four, and
there one thirty one to one twelve triumph over Denver.
The Celtics on a five game winning streak, now nine
and three overall. Finally in a Major League baseball ESPN
reported this morning that Houston Astro's reliever Rafael Montero has
agreed to a three year, thirty four million dollar extension.

(01:48:43):
Time for my next SIP, so I'll send it back
to you guys, Thank you very much. By the way,
I love we're talking ball here, but in baseball, Houston
wins the whole thing. They win the World Series, and
they offered their GM a one year deal, and the
GM is like, are you freaking create Like the team
Odor and the GM hate each other. And by the way, guys,
they signed their reliever to an extension. I'm like, who

(01:49:07):
who did that? Deal? That? There's no GM right now?
You know? Yeah? Right, Jim Grain just signing guys left
and right, Hot stove, let's do it. It is Fox
Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. How
about this another tasty matchup ranked versus ranked. We've got
UCF against two lane showdown in the ACT, as I

(01:49:29):
call it, East American Athletic Conference. Too Lane, what a turnaround,
too inten last year they are eight and one and
the highest ranked group of five team right now. That
is a huge turnaround there, Like the Lakers. Lakers are
too intent right now. Can you imagine the Lakers winning
eight of their last of their next nine? I don't,
but that's what t lane has done from season to season.

(01:49:51):
So shout out to the green wave over there getting
it done. Yeah yeah, how about this? This game will
not only determine the favorite to win the Americ In
Athletic Conference or the ACT as you put it, but
also the favorite then to represent the group of five
in one of college football's biggest six bowl games right

(01:50:11):
now that New Year's six? Uh? That the the um
the lead dog out of the group of five gets
invited to Um. Really, what this comes down to is
u c F UCFS the nights passing game against two
lanes uh past defense. Uh. You know you have UCF
who has one of the best offensive lines in the

(01:50:32):
nation at protecting their quarterback. Uh. They have kept him
on his feet his entire season and and uh what's
his name, plumb Lee. I mean, I'll tell you what.
He's a good passer from the pocket. Like he he
takes full advantage of the time he's given and uh
delivers the football downfield. So it's gonna come down to

(01:50:53):
two lane getting it done in the past defense grade.
They got a great pass rush up front. This should
be one of those fun games, a higher scoring game,
a lot of a lot of football's thrown, uh, and
it's going to be an emphasis on who gets to
the quarterback more often. We'll see what happens with the
green Wave. With the green Wave, they've only they actually

(01:51:16):
have allowed a lot of passes down field to go
for fifteen plus yards. So there there's that. But this
is UH, this is gonna be a fun one. If
you're into the group of five nights taken on the
Green Wave yeah, I love this game. To um a
couple of nuggets here. So this is the first time
that both to Lane and their opponent has been ranked

(01:51:37):
in a game since nineteen seventy three, ranked versus ranked
for the first time this Green Wave team since nineteen
seventy three, and again to Lane is the best A
T S team in the country eight and one against
the number. So wait, Jared, how about this too? The
last time they hosted a ranked team while being ranked?

(01:52:00):
You gotta go back to nineteen That's just insanity, I mean.
And again, the college football landscape ten years ago is
not the same imagine seventy years ago. Nineteen nine is
the last time to Lane has hosted a ranked team
while also being ranked. Now, again, the the the A
T S trend to me says one thing, Yes, they've

(01:52:23):
exceeded expectations this year, but also now you're starting to
pay a premium if you want to back the Wave.
And I think that is where this game falls in
my head. If I want to bet to Lane in
this spot, I better be pretty darn short that I'm
getting the better of the numbers, because again, I think
you're paying you're you're you're, you're paying up to bet

(01:52:44):
this team. Whereas you see, if I think they've got
the edge in the trenches, I think they've got an
interesting quarterback dynamic situation brewing here. And if Mom Goll
smiles on and I think he's done this. I haven't
heard word on who's starting yet. It could be either
Keen or Plumble and Mike Keene done pretty well sevent
completion percentage in two very difficult games Memphis and Cincinnati.

(01:53:06):
I mean, they went on the road last week to
the Liberty Bowl, which is a very tough place to play,
and they handled their business. So we'll see what the
vibe is this week if they can figure out this
two lane defensive line, which is not as strong as
you see F I think you see FF again has
the edge in the trenches. But can we give Taj

(01:53:26):
Spears some love almost four yards after first contact. I
mean he is a rock star, So you see, f
S front will have their hands full. But their defensive
line again top thirty in line yards created, top fifteen
on standard downs. They create a ton of negative plays
and this two lane offensive line has been susceptible to
negative plays this week. But again I think they haven't

(01:53:49):
faced uh, coaching, you know, scheme as good as Willie
Fritz and and I think he's they've got the edge
in the coaching box today. So I see some conflicting
both sides of the matchup here that I like, I'm
not betting this game. I've got UCF win total over
and a half and I'll hope that they win. But
I could see Tulane being very game here in this spot.

(01:54:09):
I've got a trend for you that is outdated but entertaining.
How about this one to Lane has lost sixty consecutive
games against ap ranked teams. That's the stat right there. Now.
I went to a New Orleans, New Orleans Saints game
the year they won the Super Bowl, and I was

(01:54:30):
walking into the stadium and one of the guys said,
these Joe Daddy Saints, And that's what I think about
two Lane, right these hr Daddy's Green Wave, Like this
is a different squad here, but take it for what
it's worth. Take it for what it's worth. They have
lost sixty consecutive games against ranked teams. And then you
could also, like to that point, you could also credit

(01:54:53):
the transfer portal because it's happening at the group of
five level. I know that we're paying closer attention to
it at the power power five level. You know, all
of a sudden, usc is able to lower the top
receiver in the country or arguably the top receiver in
the country, and it makes headline news. But two lane,
you see all these teams they are luring uh players

(01:55:16):
from from Power five conferences who are being replaced in
recruitment or in the transfer reportal themselves to come and
take a step back in terms of you know, strength
of competition and get starts and wins and build their
credit back at the Group of five level. And you're
seeing that with a lot of these programs. You know,

(01:55:37):
they've they've got a little bit of name recognition off
of the past couple of years, and they're able to
lure some some pretty highly prized recruits or or current
active roster members on some of these Power five schools
to come down to their school and get starts immediately. So, yeah,
this this ain't your daddy's green wave. That's a that's
the right way to look at it. Willie Fritz deserves

(01:55:59):
a tonic in it here. He does. He's the heck
of a head coach that nobody talks about Yeah, I
mean he really has. And again gust Males is a
pretty good coach too, But I would give the coaching
edge to two lane today. Yeah. Man, when you go
from to and ten to eight and one, that speaks
for itself right there. That's a huge turnaround, all right.
Coming up next, it's the moment of truth. All the data,

(01:56:21):
all the analytics, all the stuff we make picks, we
make picks coming up. The true question is, well I
have more than fifteen seconds to make you will adjustment
has been made a little bit hurry of offense. From here,
We've got Rich Ordinberger, the Penn State All American, Jared

(01:56:42):
Smith from picks wise dot com. You're running the two
minute drill. Come on running, I'm running the Lincoln Riley
cover play going down the field last night. We'll also
have the play of the day for you. Right around
the corner. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff
presented by Ben mg him. Kickoffs are coming, Sue, and

(01:57:04):
we're leading you up to that. This is Fox Sports
Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by Bett MGM. The kick
of sports books once again, Here's Brian no, Rich Hornberger
and Jared spit It is Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff,

(01:57:27):
presented by Bett MGM. By the way, coming up at
the top of the hour. Up on game, LaVar Arrington,
t J. Hushman sat at Flexico Burrist get y'all ready
for a youth football weekend. By the way, Shout out
to the crew. Isaac Lohan krun tremendous on the updates.
Ryan Burr Shinger, trusted producer and Iowa sam Well Taxico producer,

(01:57:48):
was live at the Coliseum for the first time to
see Colorado and usc last night's shout out to him.
Very nice. All Let's dive into this rapid fire. Okay,
time to make three picks each. We'll start with you, Jared,
what are you thinking today? Well, my my feedback has

(01:58:09):
been negative on my timeliness. Thirty words are less just
for you guys. Texas minus seven, Gary Patterson, b Gen Robinson,
hook Ume Washington plus thirteen. Michael Panics Game of his Life,
Bonus throws picks, Wake minus four Rick turn up the mesh.

(01:58:34):
Here we go, tar heel Turmoil, have fun, good luck. Alright, alright,
I've gotten eleven and eighteen record overall. I was oh
for three last week, trying to make all this. Penn
State hosts Maryland today. This year's Nitney Lions have blowouts
over bad teams. So I'm laying the ten and a
half at Happy Valley. The Ducks. They're hosting the Huskies

(01:58:58):
in Eugene. Bow has been good, Bow. I don't have
the Oregon Ducks losing again this season. I think they
win by a landslide. They cover up the twelve and
a half point spread. Louisville, alright, seven point underdogs there
first in the A C C and turnover games. I
got a close one in Depth Valley they are going.

(01:59:19):
I'm going with the seven point dogs in Louisville. So
it's Penn State minus tend and a half, Organ minus
twelve and a half Louisville plus seven. Okay, alright, First off,
Texas starts fast, TCU starts slowly. I'm taking the long
Horns in the first half minus four and a half.
Play him in the first half. I like the Old
Miss Alabama over sixty four and a half. I think

(01:59:43):
Old Miss gonna run it well. I don't think they're
gonna stop Bama very well. I think there's gonna be
a lot of points and I'm taking the scarlet nights.
Give me Rutgers plus ten at Michigan State. Michigan State,
nice win last week against Illinois. They come back to
earth this week, little bit of a letdown. Are we
got time for this? Let's do it. This is the

(02:00:06):
best play of the day. Down all right, Jared, what
do you have for us? Buddy Shamus special baby. New
Mexico State laid the three touchdowns against Lamar. By the way, Brian,
we got a battle for the top spot in the ratings.
Here are we eighteen and twelve? All, let's do it.

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