Fox Sports Radio's Countdown to Kickoff Presented by BetMGM

Brian Noe, Rich Ohrnberger, and Jared Smith recap the opening action of the NFL season, ask which college coach is in a bigger pickle so far, Dan Lanning and Mike Gundy trade barbs, some picks for today's aciton, a look ahead to the opening Sunday of the NFL season, and more! Plus, your weekly favorites: Parlay Platter, Follow the Money with Seamus Magee, Prop It Up, and Rapid Fire!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to witness greatness?

Speaker 2 (00:02):
Football fans? Welcome to the biggest tailgate party in the
nation that Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by
Bett make it legendary. We're setting you up with the
information you need to watch your team win.

Speaker 3 (00:24):
Let's go.

Speaker 2 (00:25):
We're here to break it all down. Look, this is
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Matt mg app. No,
we're live from your tailgame. Here's Brian Nook, former Penn
State All American, Rich Hornberger, and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

(00:46):
Oh what is going on?

Speaker 4 (00:47):
Welcome in Happy Saturday to you. As we get you
all set, We're.

Speaker 1 (00:51):
A day ball the wall action. I can't say it's Marquee.
You know games levon right. We were spoiled last week
with three top ten games, so not a whole lot.
I think there's what one ranked versus ranked game in
Michigan versus Oklahoma. But you know what, with this many games,
there's bound to be some crazy stuff and some interesting

(01:13):
things that happen.

Speaker 4 (01:14):
So I fallen into that trap before that.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
No Marquee matchups boot, But it's not like the soft
launch of Week zero. There's like five games we have,
like I think they're five hundred and fifty five.

Speaker 4 (01:25):
I lost count.

Speaker 1 (01:26):
After a while with called the FCS teams factored in there.
But good morning, Rich, Good morning Jared. Everything good with you, guys.

Speaker 3 (01:34):
Yeah, everything's good.

Speaker 5 (01:35):
I am with you guys, live from the great state
of Idaho before crossing the border over to the Poloue
to call a game for I'm back on the college
football bandwagon. Washington State San Diego State kickoff this evening.
But yeah, man, other than trying to find my footing

(01:57):
in a small town on the board of Washington, everything's good.

Speaker 6 (02:02):
I love it. Where in the world is Rich Hornberger?
The game he played last year is back? Big game
for your boys tonight. I actually have a little bit
of a of a peanuts as our friend Bill Krackenberger
would say on San Diego State tonight, plus the points.
So it should be a fun game. Brian, I'll be honest.
I think there are some and I know RANKD versus
Rank not as many, but there's some sneaky good spots. Today.

(02:27):
I think we're gonna learn a a lot about the
Michigan and Oklahoma quarterbacks and we'll get to them later
in the show. But there's a couple of really good games.
Like when I was going through the list, there's a
couple of games. I'm like, Oh, I'm interested to see
what that team looks like. I'm interested to see what
that quarterback looks like. We got a couple of good
non conference Power four games. Illinois at Duke, I think

(02:49):
is really fascinating. I think Baylor at SMU is fascinating,
especially what happened to Baylor last week. I think they're
a ranked team, or at least talent wise. And I
think Arizona State a Mississippi state. I know Mississippi States
not the tops of the SEC, but how good is
Arizona State this year? I think we'll find out a
little bit more about them tonight.

Speaker 1 (03:09):
I'll tell you what I love. The lighting at the
Ramada Inn over there where Rich.

Speaker 4 (03:15):
Is at looks beautiful. It's well lit.

Speaker 5 (03:18):
You know, I should take a picture of the setup.
I'll take lampshades off. I mean, I look like count
Dracula until you get the lighting jokes right.

Speaker 3 (03:29):
It takes a little soon.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
Bud, very nice And by the way, shout out to
Idaho where Rich is at. Right now, how about this Idaho.
The actual team will be wearing their fighting taters.

Speaker 6 (03:41):
Oh yeah, yeah.

Speaker 5 (03:44):
They put up a great fight against Washington State a
week ago. Did Yeah, it came down to the wire there,
So yeah, looking looking for good things out of the
Vandals this year.

Speaker 1 (03:54):
Yeah, we will be knee deep into college football, of course,
full slate of games here today. The Irish Notre Dame
the only top twenty five team not in action this
week's everybody else is. But we start with the NFL
because last night the game in Brasi, we had the
Chargers take down the Chiefs twenty seven to twenty one.

(04:14):
Shout out to Justin Herbert, who played great over three
hundred yards passing three touchdown passes. You know, it's funny
because immediately after the game, one of my buddies hit
me up and it was like, I told you it's
the Chargers year, And I was like, whoa, whoa, whoa
WOA in honor ofly course, so not so fast, my friend, right, Like,
that's basically what I was like, Well, if you look

(04:35):
at that game, and I'm curious what you guys think
on one hand, and this is the hand I think of,
there's so much more work for the Chargers or the
Broncos to do. Broncos haven't even played a game yet,
but if someone is to dethrone the Chiefs, and this
would be the first time in the last ten years,
they've had nine straight divisional crowns.

Speaker 4 (04:54):
Right in the AFC West.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
And I look at that game last night and I say,
the Chargers basically won a home game that was a
home game in Brazil for them, So they technically won
a home game where Rashi Rice didn't play and Xavier
Worthy played like three plays. It was a shout out
to his Aaron Rodgers game or something something like. He
played like three plays, he was done. So you won

(05:17):
a home game with no Rashi Rice, no Xavier Worthy.
We'll see the severity of his shoulder injury in the
days to come here. But it's a nice win for
the Chargers. But for anyone who's like I knew it,
you know here we come, Broncos are Chargers, they're de
throning case, I just don't buy it yet. It's a
very nice opening win. But Kansas City lost their first

(05:40):
game two years ago, remember at home against the Lions.
Chris Jones was still holding out. They lost that game.
They went on to beat the Niners in the Super Bowl,
So I think it's premature to reign on the dance
on the Chief's grave just yet.

Speaker 5 (05:55):
I think my reaction to that win for the Chargers
is it is so what I expected. Jim Harbaugh has
won everywhere. He's won a lot of games everywhere. He's
had competent play at quarterback. And if they can keep
Justin Herbert healthy, if they could keep that run game
going the way they got it going yesterday against the Chiefs,

(06:16):
and I have a thought on that, and I'll get
to it real quick here, then I think the Chargers
are going to have a successful season. I think the
Chiefs didn't get off the bus. I think the Chargers
were way more ready for this matchup than Kansas City was.
I think that the Chiefs are getting a little high
on their own supply, maybe feeling a little overconfident. You know,
I'm not saying they're rolling their helmets out there. They

(06:37):
played a hard nosed football game. I think they just
showed up to that game a little too late. And
I think we may see this in the early season
with teams with high powered passing offenses. When you go
against a power running team like the Chargers, who want
to come downhill out you. They want to throw two

(06:59):
pullers in front of big, heavy running backs. Whereas you're
going through training camp practicing against a pass happy offense.
If you're the starting defense, like anytimes it's ones versus
ones at practice, it is hard to get your pads
ready for that type of physicality. So the charges from
the opening whistle were far more physical than the Chiefs,

(07:20):
And I think it has a lot to do with
what the Chiefs defense actually gets to see live at
practice leading up to the regular season.

Speaker 6 (07:28):
Yeah, I'm not in my opinion on the Chiefs has
not changed one iota After last night, that play where
Herbert scrambled on third down, you know that was kind
of a missed assignment. You saw Chris Jones and Frank
will go at it on the sidelines afterwards. If they
make that like I think in week eighteen, they make

(07:49):
that play like they have that communication buttoned up and
that play doesn't happen. And how are you feeling right
now if you're holding like let's say you were holding
a Chargers money line ticket and the Chiefs have the
ball with two minutes left, Mahomes down six. You know,
you feel pretty good that the Chiefs are going to
drive down the field and get points there and win

(08:11):
that game. It was a pretty bad I would say
it was. To me what that game was last night,
game one of a best of seven series in the NHL,
where the underdog goalie just was hotter than hot and
Herbert just stole that game and he was just cooking
like that was just justin Herbert's night, and you tip

(08:34):
your cap and you say you were fantastic, Bud. When
a good quarterback plays at that level, there's really not
much you could do. And that's whyle of this sport
because on any given Sunday, right, I know it was Friday,
but on any given Sunday, a quarterback can steal a
game like that. I don't think the Chiefs played poorly.

(08:56):
Brian laid out the details like you lose your your
best deep threat right out of the gate. It's like
the Eagles losing Carter. You know, when the Eagles lost
Carter and we can get into this the you know
the Hawk Tua moment heard around the world on Thursday.

Speaker 3 (09:11):
Yeah, but you knew.

Speaker 6 (09:14):
Right out of the gate, Oh, the Cowboys are gonna
have a lot more success on offense. Well, the Chiefs
didn't score touchdown in the first half. You know, I
think if they don't lose Worthy on the first drive,
they probably get a touchdown in the first half. And
this is probably a tighter game and the Chiefs aren't
chasing it, and Herbert maybe has a little bit more Okay,

(09:37):
I gotta be a little more conservative here. We got
to keep the Mahomes up the just it was just
it was just the Chargers night, and it was still
a close game, and the Chiefs still had a chance
to get off the field late and put the ball
in their quarterbacks hands to win it. So no opinion
change on either team frankly last night.

Speaker 1 (09:51):
Yeah, a lot of work for the Chargers to do,
but nice start, very nice win for them. Not trying
to rain on the parade, but it's true. There's a
reason why that she have won nine straight divisional crowns.
And I will say this, as far as the Chiefs,
I'm still surprised how sloppy they look. They typically don't
look like that where they're assisting the other team in

(10:12):
beating them. Whereas the missed extra point right like they
finally were about to tie the score in, Butker misses
the extra point, and we're like, he hit the fifty
nine yard or right before halftime, and now he's missing
an extra point.

Speaker 4 (10:24):
He's just weird. Hollywood.

Speaker 1 (10:25):
Brown had an easy catch that he dropped early in
the first half. Would have been a first down, would
have been a big play. He just dropped the ball. Penalties,
you know, a couple of fall start penalties right before
halftime could.

Speaker 4 (10:36):
Have cost him points.

Speaker 1 (10:37):
It's weird to see the Chiefs still this sloppy on
the heels of the Super Bowl, and I hear you, Rich,
I just don't think they were locked in. And I'm
surprised about that first game after the Super Bowl calamity
and they look like that.

Speaker 4 (10:50):
It's kind of weird.

Speaker 1 (10:51):
We want to work in real fast the Cowboys and
the Eagles, because Jared you mentioned this, the Hawk Tua
moment thereby a Chief carter not good. Gota be gotta
be wiser than that. Can't be the second guy getting caught.
You can't speed right in front of the cops, you
know what I mean.

Speaker 4 (11:07):
You can't peel out right in front of the cops.

Speaker 1 (11:12):
You can't do the official was right there. You can't
spit in someone's you know, general direction with the cops
right there, that's what he did that hurt him, That
absolutely hurt them. Cowboys were able to run the ball
more effectively than the Chiefs were last night, right and
Jalen Carter is a big part of their rush defense.
Ceedee Lamb, that was the best worst game I've ever seen.

(11:33):
He was fantastic for most of the game, and then
he had two easy catches that were drops and one
would have been a difficult catch at the end. He's
fully capable of making that play. He'd tell you he
needs to make that play. So really, three drops by
Ceedee Lamb really strange. I don't know how the under
hitting that game, my lord, wild forty one combined first

(11:55):
half points and it still goes under, like under forty
of it and a half. That's insanity right there. But
if you're holding an overticket, you have no hair left
because he pulled it all out.

Speaker 4 (12:06):
That was wild.

Speaker 3 (12:08):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (12:08):
Betting on college football the NFL, I mean it is.

Speaker 3 (12:13):
This is what we love about football, though.

Speaker 5 (12:15):
It's the unpredictability of what you're gonna see. Like, for example,
if you told me that the Cowboys would have put
up as great of a fight as they did overall
against the reigning Super Bowl champs, defending their home turf
for the first time since raising the Lombardy. I would
have told you the Cowboys are going to come out flat.
The Eagles are going to be rolling. It's gonna be

(12:36):
a lot of confidence, a lot of noise in that
stadium for the Cowboys to handle, and this is going
to be a rough start for their season.

Speaker 3 (12:42):
And they battled.

Speaker 5 (12:43):
I was really impressed with the whole squad. I think
two things. One, Dallas really fell down not staying aggressive
in the second half with the blitz package, oddly unaggressive
game plan. They blitzed a couple of times extremely effectively
from the secondary level, sending the slock corner stuff like that,

(13:06):
you know, and confusing Jalen Hurts and getting home and
then they stopped.

Speaker 3 (13:11):
It's like when you lose the.

Speaker 5 (13:13):
Best pass rusher, the best defender on your team, and
he's such an important part of the pass rush, how
do you get that vanilla? Defensively, they got scared, I think,
or got scared out of it. It was confusing. And
then offensively, you said it all. Brian CD had such
a confounding performance in the fourth quarter. Dak Prescott was

(13:33):
a huge Prescott was starwing darts and he deserves better.

Speaker 3 (13:38):
I mean he was.

Speaker 5 (13:38):
Putting it on that final three play sequence where he
misses CD on the post because he just flat out
drops a forty yard handoff. He finds Goddard on the
sideline and he dots him with a ball and then
he puts one on CD.

Speaker 3 (13:54):
Again.

Speaker 5 (13:55):
Tough pass. I understand that, hard, hard one to catch
up for.

Speaker 3 (13:59):
You had a layout for it.

Speaker 5 (14:00):
But again another ball off of his fingertips for an incompletion,
and number eighty eight knows it.

Speaker 3 (14:06):
I know he's great.

Speaker 5 (14:07):
I know he'll do better this season, but he's a
big reason why the Dallas Cowboys lost that game.

Speaker 6 (14:13):
Yep, Dallas one yards per play. They lost turnover battle,
but they won yards per play. They were the better
I don't want to say the better team, but the
Eagles committed nine penalties for one hundred and ten yards
and they gained less than five yards per play. I
think you run that game back one hundred times. I
think the Eagles lose it more than they win it.

(14:34):
And listen, we told you this a month ago. I
told you this I'm already hearing Eagles fans clamor about
Kevin Petulo's play calling in the fourth quarter and how
bad it was and conservative and guys, we were on
this network a month ago and I said, the most
interesting higher in this offseason was Scott Loeffler, the quarterbacks
coach for the Eagles. Why are you hiring a mac

(14:56):
head coach from Bowling Green to be the quarterbacks coach
for the defending Super Bowl champions unless you've got some
uncertainty in that offensive play calling room with Kellen Moore gone.
And I'm telling you, if Aj Brown goes another game
without getting a target until the fourth quarter, I think
there might be a riot down Broad Street. This is

(15:19):
what we're looking at this year, Guys, Jalen Hurts. This
is a very fragile offense. If they can't run the
ball and get a lead, I don't know if this
is going. Like, for example, if the Eagles were in
the chief situation last night where they were constantly chasing
the game. Yeah, that's not the recipe for Philly right now. Now,

(15:42):
maybe they'll graduate and regain some of that. Hey, we
can spread it out and throw the ball and make
you hurt and stretch you and vertically stretch you. But
I didn't see it against Dallas's defense without Michael Parsons. So,
red Flag fans, you play the Chiefs next week. They're

(16:03):
coming off a pretty gritty loss. They're gonna be fired up.
You beat them in the Super Bowl six months ago
and you embarrassed them. If you play like you did
on Thursday night, you will get beat by the Chiefs,
mark my words right now. And you're getting a discount
on them. Getting a discount on the Chiefs right now.
After the loss last night.

Speaker 1 (16:21):
By the way, after this loss for Dallas, I took
them their season win total over Great Bet because it
moved too much. It's plus one twenty five now at
bet MGM. So think about this early August, it was
minus one thirty five to go over seven and a
half wins. Now it's plus one twenty five. You could

(16:42):
get plus money. Think about how that game worked out
the Cowboys. They went toe to toe with the defending
champs on the road. They lost a close game as
eight and a half point underdogs. They were expected to
lose that game, and now they're plus one twenty five.

Speaker 4 (16:58):
That's just too much of an over reaction.

Speaker 6 (17:00):
Totally agree. Great bet Brian.

Speaker 1 (17:02):
Thank you.

Speaker 6 (17:03):
Dallas's gonna be good better this year. I'm telling your
offense gonna be fun. Their offense is gonna be fun.

Speaker 1 (17:08):
That was the game for Dak. He's gotta be like, man,
how do we lose that game? I know I was
freaking nice in that game.

Speaker 4 (17:15):
Man, too bad? All right, We're off and running.

Speaker 1 (17:17):
We've got Rich Orenberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 4 (17:22):
I'm Brian No.

Speaker 1 (17:23):
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the bonus code is countdown bet MGM. Make it legendary,

(17:47):
all right? Coming up next, head coaches in the news,
some smack talking head coaches and two head coaches in particular,
both in rough spots.

Speaker 4 (17:56):
Who's in a rougher spot?

Speaker 1 (17:57):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off presented
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Speaker 1 (18:43):
It is Fox Sports Radios Compdown to kick Off, presented
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(19:06):
of your personalized rewards, and new players can receive up
to fifteen hundred dollars back in bonus bets with bonus
code countdown if they don't win their first bet. That's
code countdown in the BEDMGM app We got head coaches
in the news. We'll get to the trash talking head
coaches here momentarily, but two.

Speaker 4 (19:24):
Head coaches in a rough spot.

Speaker 1 (19:26):
That would be Alabama's Kaitlin de Boor and North Carolina's
Bill Belichick. So my question is simple, who's in a
rougher spot right now? Is it Belichick or is it Debor?
Many different angles, many different layers to get through.

Speaker 4 (19:42):
But what would you say? How would you answer that question?

Speaker 6 (19:45):
There?

Speaker 4 (19:45):
Rich Belichick or Deboor in a rougher spot.

Speaker 5 (19:48):
Oh, it's absolutely Kailin Debor. It doesn't matter really in
his tenure. How far out you get from Nick Saban's
time at Alabama, you're still replacing Nick Saban unless Kalin
de bor turns into.

Speaker 3 (20:07):
I don't know, either Nick Saban two point zero.

Speaker 5 (20:10):
Or the Tide rolls to the same tune that they've
been for the past just about two decades under Saban,
then this is gonna be a rough tenure.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
We knew what this was gonna look like when he
took the job. We knew whoever took this job was.

Speaker 5 (20:26):
Going to be in some level of peril trying to
replace greatness. And you have a suffocating reaction to a
bad loss, and that's what that was. It was a
bad loss for Bama out the gates against Florida State.

Speaker 3 (20:41):
Belichick, Look, there's.

Speaker 5 (20:44):
Gonna be some lumps and bumps He's and the Tar
Heels are going to take along the way as he figures.

Speaker 3 (20:49):
Out how to coach at the college level.

Speaker 5 (20:51):
It's completely different game than the game he came from,
and and he's not a first timer, but it's been
a long time and so he's gonna have to do
some figuring out.

Speaker 3 (21:01):
I think there'll be more patient with him.

Speaker 5 (21:03):
But the fan base and Tuscaloosa and the media reaction
is going to be intense. The scrutiny that debor is under,
so one hundred debor, He's he's got a lot more
to worry about and uh and a lot less time
to worry about it, if you catch my drift.

Speaker 6 (21:20):
Totally agree. Now, there is an element of I guess
showmanship to what Belichick is going through right now because
of how big the spotlight is on him. But the
expectations at Alabama are significantly higher. I mean, Bill Belichick

(21:42):
could go six and six this year, get to a
bowl game, and I don't really think there's gonna be
a lot of off season clamoring for him to you know, oh,
you gotta get you know, we gotta get rid of
this guy, blah blah blah. I think because of just
who he is and you know, how much attention he gets,
I do think North Carolina will want to keep him around.

(22:05):
Debor if they go six and six. Heck, if they
go eight and four. I mean you're talking about like
earth wind and fire type rage from the Alabama fan base.
I mean that like if they miss a playoff two
consecutive years and if they look as saw. I mean

(22:26):
that's the difference between North Carolina and Alabama. Alabama has
thirteen five stars on the two deep. Alabama has an elite,
elite defense of you know players offense. I think they're good,
not great, but still very talented, significantly more talented than UNC.

(22:46):
If those players don't play up to the expectation. That's
on the coaches, whereas North Carolina lost their entire team. Now,
to be fair, Bill picked the new team. So if
they don't play up the expectations, you can say, well,
well Bill's not you know, he's lost his fastball with
you know, talent evaluation. And I'll be honest, after watching
Max Johnson come off the bench and play pretty well

(23:08):
at quarterback, I have some questions about his decision making
to start Gio Lopez over Max Johnson, but we'll get
to that at a later time. The expectation at Alabama,
the talent at Alabama is significantly higher. That means there's
more to lose.

Speaker 1 (23:23):
Yeah, listen, the case it is to bor just because
Alabama fans are psychotic. And I don't mean that, you know,
as a negative all across the board, Like they have
high expectations, sometimes unrealistic high expectations, and I don't think
they're unrealistic with calling Caleb dborr out for what's happened
thus far. Right, he's lost four games as a double

(23:46):
digit favorite. Yeah, already, Like you can't lose games as
a double digit favorite. I don't care who you are,
but especially if you take over for Nick Saban at
Alabama and they're just winning national championship after national championship.
You can't lose to Vanderbilt last year and a bad
Oklahoma team and then lose to Florida State and get

(24:06):
punked by Florida State this year fresh off a two
win ten season.

Speaker 4 (24:10):
That's just way too much. They've lost to.

Speaker 1 (24:11):
Four unranked teams as a double digit favorite, So of
course he's gonna get scrutinized like crazy. The thing with
Belichick and he doesn't have a team nearly as talented, obviously,
both you guys laid that point out, and it's the
right point. But the thing that's different with Belichick is
that each loss is tied to his legacy. You know,

(24:34):
with each loss at North Carolina, there are gonna be
people that start thinking, yeah, Tom Brady was much more
important to the Patriots success than Belichick was.

Speaker 4 (24:42):
And then there's a lot even now of like man Belichick.

Speaker 1 (24:46):
The college game is a different animal, you know, And
it's like, I think he can figure it out just fine,
you know, if the talent is up to snuff, if
you will, I don't think it's so advanced and so
diff that he's like WHOA, I have the much more
talented team, but I don't know.

Speaker 4 (25:03):
What's going on.

Speaker 1 (25:04):
It's almost basketball out here. This college game is radically different.
I don't think that's the case at all, but those
naysayers are out there. So that's the thing with Belichick
because of who he is. Even though we don't expect
excellence from North Carolina, we do expect excellence from Belichick.
So he's at a rough spot too. It's just not
rougher than Kaylin de boor.

Speaker 5 (25:26):
Yeah, I agree with most of what you said. The
college game is very different in this way. It's it's
unique in that look in the NFL, you have twenty
two starters on each team who are drawn from the
most elite pool of athletes you can possibly draw from

(25:46):
in the country, and outside of injuries, for the most part,
the battle week to week is strategically finding where your
opponent is weak and attacking them. Whereas at the college
football level, there was no way you and see was
going to match wits with against even a Texas Christian
Like they just weren't gonna be as talented. And He's

(26:09):
gonna run into that a lot more often at the
collegiate level than he will at the NFL level. Now,
to your other point, and I agree with this point fullheartedly.
He's gonna figure it out. It's gonna take some time.
Go do yourself a favor and look back on some
of the great coaches who we herald now and see
how they looked when they were getting the programs off

(26:31):
the ground at collegiate level.

Speaker 3 (26:33):
You know, think of like a Jim Harbaugh, who just
got a.

Speaker 5 (26:36):
Win last night in Brazil, a reigning AFC champs, the Chiefs.
He's the Chargers head coach right now. When he was
at Stanford, it took a couple of years. It took
him a couple of years to build up that program,
to get his players, his philosophy, get a couple of
core guys, and get himself a quarterback like Andrew Luck

(26:57):
to get that program really humming. To your point about
Belichick and Tom Brady, I think that debate will just
run on for the rest of humanity. You know, it's
the chicken or the egg. I mean it really is.
You know who's more important to the Patriots dynasty. I
think they were equally important. I do think you need
to have players to win games, So I'll always give

(27:17):
the edge to the player. But in the case of Belichick,
like every other football coach, you look great when you
have a great quarterback and their quarterback had a back
injury in the third quarter. He's uncertain to start this
upcoming weekend, and you know, and you have this this
situation where they outside of the opening drive, they look

(27:39):
pretty poor. They have a lot to clean up communication
wise and execution wise.

Speaker 6 (27:44):
Yeah, I'll be honest, I think there's a big difference
between what Brady. You know, my opinions on the Brady
Belichick thing has definitely swayed over the years. I love Bill, honestly.
I do think he's a great coach. He deserves all
the all the accolades. But I just disagree with a
lot of the things that he's done later on in

(28:05):
his career. And I think this one is is going
to be one that he will maybe regret. He didn't need.
He didn't need this like this is he wanted to
he had something left to prove. Yeah, he had something
left to prove. And I guess it's maybe just the
you know, the mindset of a great competitor, Like he

(28:28):
just didn't like how the Patriots thing ended, and he
had something, he had that fire left to prove. Now
he might something might say, well he's you know, he's
kind of getting himself out there in the entertainment world.
That I think is the more unique part of this.
That's the most unique part of all this, guys, is

(28:49):
it's all about right like and rich you play for him.
It's focus, eliminate distractions. It's you know, we're on to Cincinnati,
We're on to Charlotte. And why writing a book, like like,
why all the pomp and circumstance around this new venture
if it really is just about football. I think there

(29:11):
are some questions I have about some of the extracurricular stuff.
And that's where if you are if your brand is
no distractions, all business, this is not on brand for you.
That's the part about the unc situation. That's why the

(29:31):
first bet I made, I made it. I'll check my sheet.
I made it back on June ninth, the first college
football bet I made North Carolina under seven and a
half wins. Because I'm looking around at all this mess
and this like you know, noise, and I'm like, this
is not the Bill Belichick that I remember torturing my

(29:53):
Jets for years it's just not the same guy. And
that's the part about all this that I'm like, where
is that? Like, who body snatched Bill Belichick to? Where's
dating this? You know, former Miss Maine and going around
doing book deals Like It's just it's weird. It's it's
like bizarro Bill. I don't get it, and I do

(30:14):
think at some point it's going to impact his ability
to coach and evaluate talent. There's only so much time
in the day you can't spend. This is the problem
I have with sometimes when we see a lot of
these athletes in season doing their podcasts and their shows.
How do you have this much time? I can barely
keep up with the content. And I'm not a professional athlete.

(30:36):
So it's just it's crazy that this is the path
we've gone down with Belichick.

Speaker 1 (30:40):
But here we are, all right, we got to get
to trash talking head coaches real fast. How about Mike Gundhy,
Oklahoma state head coach. They're taking on Oregon today and
during his radio interview, he said, Oh, Oregon, they spent
close to forty million dollars last year alone on its roster.
And so Dan Lanning, the Oregon head coach, he heard

(31:01):
about this, and he said, hey, if you want to
be a top ten football team in college football, you
better be invested in winning. We spend to win. And
then of course he was asked about Mike Gundy's comments, right,
Gundhy's like, oh, those Oregon Ducks are spending forty million
bucks on last year's roster alone. So Dan Lanning's response
to that, and I love this. He kind of stopped himself.

(31:21):
He's like, some people save to have an excuse for
why they don't. I can't speak on their situation. I
have no idea what they got in their pockets over there.
He started to say, well, hey, he's got excuses why
they don't get the job done.

Speaker 4 (31:35):
I guess I don't know what to tell.

Speaker 1 (31:37):
He stopped a little bit, but the message is still delivered, right,
And kind of interesting backdrop when we've got Oregon favored
by four touchdowns, but something like this with Gundhy like, yeah,
they win because they spend all that money. It's one
of those little things where you always talk about the
old school bulletin board material. I mean, when you're a

(31:58):
four touchdown favorite, don't be surprise they win by five,
six touchdowns.

Speaker 4 (32:02):
After something like that, no doubt.

Speaker 5 (32:04):
I always ask myself why when I hear somebody say something,
especially if it's controversial or it's unique, and it's unique
when a coach does something like this, like says the
quiet parts out loud.

Speaker 3 (32:15):
So why did my Gundhy do it? I think he
did it for a couple of reasons.

Speaker 5 (32:18):
But do I think that he's trying to get under
the skin of his you know, opponent coach?

Speaker 3 (32:24):
Yeah?

Speaker 5 (32:24):
Maybe, But do I think it's more to send a
message to the boosters and the donors of the Oklahoma
state program one hundred percent Read between the lines here.
What he's saying is, Hey, guess why we're for touchdown underdogs.
It's because y'all won't spend so until you reach into
your pockets and you take those boxing gloves off. When

(32:45):
I'm saying, hey, I need you to help me buy
players here in Oklahoma, don't expect me to face a
top ten team in the country and have good results.
It's exactly what's happening here. It's less about Dan Lamb
and Mike Gundhy, and it's more about Mike Gundhy and
the donor and boosters of his football program.

Speaker 6 (33:06):
Nailed it. Nailed it. And that's the part about these
coaches that I think we don't fully understand is the
I don't think Mike was talking to Dan or Oregon
in that scenario. I think these coaches are really good
and I wrote this up in my preview, I said,
I think these coaches are really good at motivating their
own teams, and I think sometimes they are blind to

(33:28):
the impact it has on other teams. For a good reason.
I don't think Mike Gundy cares much about what Dan
Lanning says to his team before the game. That's not
like when you're in your masculine state like these head
coaches are. You are focused on your purpose and your
message with your team and you don't really care what
it does to the other team. And I think these coaches,

(33:50):
the best of the best of these coaches can get
the most out of their kids and their program. And
that's what the message was. And also fact check, like,
they're not spending forty million, they're spending twenty So it
wasn't even true what he was saying, Like it was
such a it was such an exaggeration that it was
not a shot at Oregon. It was a way to
get his boys fired up, and then Dan took it

(34:12):
and tried to get his boys fired up, Like I
think these coaches are elite motivators and that was the
whole motivation behind what they said.

Speaker 1 (34:19):
Right, And he also said, Mike Gundy, he said that
Oklahoma State spent around seven million dollars on its team
over the past three years. That doesn't seem correct either. No,
that that little over three years, right.

Speaker 6 (34:35):
Team Mooon Pickens was opening up the wallet left and
right for this team. Can we can we pump the
brakes on Oklahoma State being this like thrifty program here.

Speaker 1 (34:44):
I mean, yeah, but Rich is right, he's basically it's
funny because he's he's trying to say, hey, guys, you
want to be on Oregon's level, you gotta donate, you
gotta get this pumped up over here. And accidentally I
think that he's like, you know, Oregon's wildly fired up.

Speaker 4 (35:02):
Now have their way the bear, Yeah, the unreal.

Speaker 1 (35:07):
All right, We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State, All American,
Jared Smith FSR, betting analyst, I'm Brian No coming up
next to parlay platter, which have one selection for you.
We pull it together for a greater payout. I might
choose something that's near and dear both Jared and Rich's heart.

Speaker 6 (35:23):
Oh might do it.

Speaker 1 (35:25):
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by
bet MGM. Every time you make a wager at BETMGM,
you earn BETMGM rewards points that can be redeemed for
things like bonus bets or converted to MGM rewards points
that can be used towards dining shows and hotel rooms

(35:46):
at over.

Speaker 4 (35:46):
Twenty MGM resorts.

Speaker 1 (35:48):
And be sure to follow BETMGM across all socials at BETMGM.
All right, let's do this. Check this out ar late
letter okay, which have one selection? We pull it together
for a greater payout shared. We start with you, where
are you going?

Speaker 6 (36:06):
I am taking the Duke Blue Devils. They are hosting
Illinois today and this is a fishy line. Illinois top
fifteen team and the spreads two and a half against Duke.
The Dukies are a basketball school. Not so fast, my friends,
shout out leak corse so Manny Diaz undefeated against the

(36:27):
spread as a dog of seven or last last year
went four and oh with four outright upsets. Pretty impressive. Again,
tight line today. I don't trust Illinois. We talked about this,
I think multiple times on the show the last few
weeks when we've been bringing up these sleeper teams. I
am not buying the Illinois hyde and I think this
Blue Devil's defense especially, is gonna shut down the run.

(36:50):
We know Beilama loves to play bully ball, but I'm
not buying it. I think Duke at Home on Tobacco
Road gets an upset win. I will put Duke money line.
It is plus one point fifteen currently at a MGM
first leg of the parlay player get a little boosted
odds there for you guys.

Speaker 5 (37:07):
All right, give me UNLV on the money line taking
on and hosting UCLA today.

Speaker 3 (37:14):
Okay, so let's break this down.

Speaker 5 (37:16):
UCLA gets absolutely throttled against Utah a week ago as
the I Am Leappa, the the the a new era
quarterback begins for the Bruins. And then you look at
and you'll help me with the name here, Jared, it's Calandria.

Speaker 3 (37:34):
Right at quarterback.

Speaker 6 (37:35):
Yeah, yeah, Yeahlbny Kalandria Anthony Kolandria.

Speaker 5 (37:39):
Klandria spent two years at Virginia and he started his
two games at UNLV throwing seventy seven.

Speaker 3 (37:47):
Percent completion grade on forty four. Man, this guy looks good.
They look pretty sharp. Two big wins.

Speaker 5 (37:55):
Look, it's Idaho State and it's Sam Houston, but still
they got a couple wins on to their belt. I
think they're gonna have a much steeper climb on the road.
The Bruins will against the Rebels hosting, So I like
the money line here.

Speaker 1 (38:09):
Okay, let's go.

Speaker 4 (38:10):
Look at you get.

Speaker 6 (38:11):
I'll be in the building tonight. I will be in
the building tonight for that game. Let's go.

Speaker 1 (38:16):
You know the ReBs always get up when Jared Smith
is in the building.

Speaker 6 (38:20):
Yeah, well they got beaten by Boise last year. When
I went to the last game, that.

Speaker 4 (38:25):
Was all yeah, a body experience. So yeah, you're in
the building.

Speaker 6 (38:32):
Yeah, new coach, new vibe.

Speaker 1 (38:34):
Yeah, all right, I'm gonna go with your Penn State
Nitney Lyons. Let's go right, like a couple of reasons.
So I'm gonna take a minus forty one and a half.
It's gone back and forth. It's it's up to forty
two and a half right now, But give me forty
one and a half. It's minus a dollar thirty. It's
not that big of a penalty and it might come

(38:54):
into play, right, You don't want to get hooked. It
would be a shame if they win by six touchdowns
and you get hold looked. So I'll get under that
with forty one and a half and put a little
bit extra juice on there minus a dollar thirty. Listen,
their defense is fantastic. If you know how talented ther fi,
he is going to have a hard time moving the ball,
let alone scoring. And isn't this the way it goes?

Speaker 6 (39:16):
Right?

Speaker 4 (39:16):
Jared?

Speaker 1 (39:17):
You had your Nitney Lions in rapid fire last week
and it looked like the right side and there's a
touchdown at the end and it's not. And of course
I don't know what it is with gambling, where just
to tick you off a little bit more, they'll be
gangbusters today, you know, and they'll cover the spread.

Speaker 4 (39:34):
And it's like, why.

Speaker 1 (39:35):
Couldn't they have done that like last time they were playing.
So give me a gimme Penn State minus the forty
one and a half.

Speaker 2 (39:43):
I like this parlay.

Speaker 6 (39:44):
We got Penn State. We know that they love to cover,
and I'm sure games. Franklin took some heat for not
covering last week. We got Duke on the money line,
a home dog against the Alni. We are not buying
the fighting a Lini this year, guys. And we got
the Rabs home dog against UCLA. This is this is
a parlay platter. At its core, it's Penn State and

(40:05):
it's two home dogs. We love it plus six seventy
nine over at bet MGM. It's hitting bet it now,
it's hitting kid.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
It's almost seven to one. That's great approaching.

Speaker 6 (40:17):
It got a nice little little nugget for you to
start the day, although you have to wait to the
end of the day to cash because that's when the
UNLB game is.

Speaker 1 (40:24):
How about it cashing at the end while you're in
the building.

Speaker 6 (40:28):
That would be awesome. Huh right, I will buy the
entire stadium a hot dog. Just kidding. Very expensive at
Allegiant Stadium, very expensive. Everything is expensive in Vegas.

Speaker 4 (40:39):
I have to retract that immediately, you know, all right?
Coming up next a.

Speaker 1 (40:43):
Couple of ranked teams on the road against unranked teams. Doom, oh,
what is going on? We are knee deep in ball
here today. So much football to discuss we will next
hour get to Week one of the NFL, the tastiest matchups.
Some injury news over there, but we're staying focused on

(41:03):
college football right now. How about a couple of ranked
teams on the road against unranked teams. Sometimes that can
spell doom. But first game we're looking at is number
eleven Illinois on the road against Duke And Jared, you
just laid it out last segment, the parlay platter. You
like you like the Donkies over here? They've been they've

(41:26):
been quietly really good at home under Manny Diaz at
what The only games they've lost are twelve and two
at home. The only games that they you know, lost
one score of games that was against Notre Dame and
also SMU. Otherwise they've been really really good at home.
And Illinois they've got some injuries. Their wide receiving corps

(41:46):
is banged up quite a bit. So yeah, hey, I
there's more than enough reason to back the Dukies. With
a weird line. There's a stinky line over there. Yeah,
you know, like Jared said, top fifteen team, only a
two and a half point point favorite on the road.
That's like you ever smell milk? That's you know eight
days old. You smell it, You're like, whoa look away

(42:07):
right real fast? You know That's how I feel about
this point spread here.

Speaker 5 (42:11):
Yeah, and I want to hand this off quickly to
Jared because he's a big believer in this.

Speaker 3 (42:17):
Brought it to the parlay platter.

Speaker 5 (42:19):
But just a little stat to further the point you
just made about being good at home. Duke football has
been the best team at home in the ACC over
the last three seasons. They're seventeen and three in their
last twenty home games. So yeah, they definitely deserve some
love on the betting line as the line I go

(42:43):
down to Durham. What about this matchup though, Jared specifically
stuck out to you because, as Brian put it perfectly,
the number stinks.

Speaker 6 (42:52):
Yeah, it's twofold. Let's start with the ALIGNI offense against
the Duke defense. So we know Illinois loves to run
the ball, right, ilam a bully ball, That's what they
love to do. Well, Duke is great at stopping the run.
They were a top team in the country last year
allowing less than four yards per game on the ground.
So that right there stuck stood out to me. Now,

(43:15):
Illinois does have an intriguing prospect at receiver. Hank Beatty
had a breakout game last week. I know they faced
Western Illinois, but he looked good. But Duke's got two
elite corners. Chandler River is a preseason All American and
Kamari Robinson on the other sides in his third year.
So they have two experienced corners that I think are
comfortable playing man to man being on an island with

(43:36):
the ALIGNI receivers, which will allow Duke to really focus
on stopping the run. Alt Meyer is a big scrambler.
He loves to use his legs. They've got two other backs,
Laffery and Fagan that are solid. I mean, Illinois can
run the ball. Again, that's their identity. So I think
Duke kind of like we saw with Texas last week, right,
They're not going to commit. They're not going to be
forced to commit extra bodies in the box to shut

(43:58):
down the run because they feel comfortable with their secondary
playing man to man in the back. So I think
they're going to be very effective at stopping the run
in this game. The other side of the ball that's
fascinating to me is the Duke offense got lit sizzle
to it. Jack has more back running back, excuse me.
And then at receiver they got this Harvard transfer. How

(44:18):
about that? How about Duke getting a Harvard transfer receiver?
Cooper Barkate was fantastic last week for the Blue Devils.
So this is why you pay Darien Mensa ten mil
over two years for this kind of game. You know
you're at home against the rank team, the A line.
I had gotten all the butt all I've heard all

(44:39):
off season, the aligne I are going to the college
football playoff. All right, prove it, Luke Altmeyer, go down
to Duke and go get a win. Because the number
right now is telling me this is going to be
a real tight game. Because it was plus I got
plus three and a half earlier.

Speaker 3 (44:52):
In the week.

Speaker 6 (44:53):
Those are long gone. It was plus three for a
long portion of time. Now we're seeing two and a half.
So this is a real And again when you get
through that key number of three, that means there is
significant money coming in on Duke. A lot of smart
people think the Dukies are gonna play well today.

Speaker 1 (45:10):
You know what's funny to me this game with a
number eleven Illinois at Duke. This would be a nice
win for either team, but it wouldn't buy either much respectability,
you know what I'm saying, Like, if Illinois wins his
top fifteen team, it's like, that's kind of what you're
supposed to do, right. If Duke wins, it's like, nice
win against Illinois, who's number eleven. It's not one of

(45:33):
the big boys in the Big Ten. You know, if
you beat Illinois, that's not all of a sudden gonna
put Duke on the map, you know what I mean.
But Manny Diaz again has done a really nice job,
and this would be a nice win, even though it
wouldn't buy him a ton of respect Yeah.

Speaker 3 (45:46):
Yeah.

Speaker 5 (45:46):
You know what's interesting about the Illiini in front of
Altmeyer is all five returning starting offensive lineman, which really
helps against a Duke team that struggle against the run
a little bit. So it look defense and especially run
game travel. So when you're in a situation like this
and you're the ALIGNI, you're on the road. It's a

(46:10):
Duke team that has been great at home. How do
you a quiet a.

Speaker 3 (46:13):
Crowd, Well, take you take the air out of the game.

Speaker 5 (46:16):
You know, you run the football, You impose your will
with guys with experience up front, and you don't make
this about your quarterback. You make this about your offensive line.
You make this about the trenches and try to dirty
up this game as much as possible. Uh yeah, And
to your point that you just made in terms of
the win, if Duke wins at home on a discount spread,

(46:40):
kind of you think to yourself, well, yeah, of course
the home dogs won. They've they've done a great job
defending their home turf in the Diaz era, and even
before that, if you look at the align, I yeah,
of course they won on the road. They're a ranked
team heading into an acc back. Of course they should
have won. So I I do think this is a

(47:01):
little bit of a wash. It's I feel very neutral
about the outcome of this game, but I do think
I do think Duke may have their hands full if
then I imposed the run on them early and have
early success.

Speaker 6 (47:16):
Totally agree. I think that this will be one of
those games where Beelim is just he's itching to run
the ball on this team. I will say one thing though,
after watching Northwestern just throttle Western Illinois last night, I
don't know how good that fifty I think it was

(47:36):
fifty two to three. God fact check me on that
final score last week between Illinois and Western Illinois, Brian,
I think it was fifty two to three. Yeah, Northwestern
won forty nine to seven last night. So again, is
Illinois and Northwestern on the same page here? Because those
score lines seem a little bit similar to me. I

(48:02):
was not buying the Illinois hype all off season. I
wasn't buying it, and I'm not buying it now, And
the market's telling me that Illinois deserves no respect. So
until the market tells me that Illinois deserves my respect,
I'm not gonna give him my respect now if they
go down and like it's just I am a slave
to the market. The market tells me who I should

(48:23):
be paying attention to right now. If you see a
top fifteen team as a two and a half point
favorite against Duke, that's telling me that team is not
getting a lot of love by the odds makers. So
until they give me a reason to pay attention, I
am gonna have to rely on my handicapping, which says

(48:45):
Duke can stop the run. Manny Diaz loves the underdog
role and Illinois is gonna have a big step up
in class this week. They ain't faced in the leathernecks
of WYU. Today they're facing the Blue Devils.

Speaker 1 (49:00):
Yeah, all right, another ranked team on the road against
an unranked squad that would be number twenty ole miss
at Kentucky.

Speaker 4 (49:08):
We'll get a little SEC.

Speaker 1 (49:10):
Showdown over here, all right, Maybe showdowns a little bit
too much, we get an SEC matchup, you know, maybe
Gowite Soda. But you look at this game and the
under is ticked down a little bit. It was at
fifty two and a half now it's fifty and a
half and juiced to the under. And a couple of
reasons why. One that stands out just last week Kentucky

(49:32):
against Toledo, they didn't do much of anything offensively, The
only averaged four point six yards per play. They had
two turnovers against Toledo. That's the yikes. And also Kentucky
plays pretty solid defense.

Speaker 4 (49:47):
So it's the best of both worlds.

Speaker 1 (49:50):
If you're looking to the under, you're looking at Kentucky's defense,
and you're also looking at Kentucky's offense to hopefully keep
the game under fifty and a half if that's your
angle here. But at least it makes sense why it's
ticked down throughout the week.

Speaker 5 (50:04):
Yeah, yeah, I think it all comes down to Kentucky defensively.

Speaker 3 (50:09):
We'll see how they hold up.

Speaker 5 (50:12):
You know, it's interesting how certain teams early in the
season you can kind of see how their season's gonna go,
whether they're led by one side of the ball or
they're sort of led by the weaknesses they're trying to
hold up on. And I think if Kentucky's defense can
hold the line against Ole Miss, I mean, this could

(50:33):
be a long, hard day for the Kiffins, the fighting
Kiffins out there. We'll see though, I mean, some much
different challenge than they have week one.

Speaker 3 (50:42):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (50:42):
I like this Austin Simmons kid. I'll tell you that
he is a unique story. Go read about Austin Simmons's
upbringing and he was homeschooled, grew up in South Florida,
then went to Flanning and High School in Pepperck Pines,
which is my old stomping grounds, and that, you know,
Florida Neck of the Woods. I grew up down there,

(51:03):
graduated early. I think he's already got his bachelor's degree.
He's nineteen years old.

Speaker 3 (51:08):
Wow.

Speaker 6 (51:09):
He is a really unique kid. Lefty quarterback. As a
fellow lefty I can tell you we think with different
the different side of our brain. We are smarter than
everyone else. I'm sorry, we just are. There's a certain
level of confidence and intelligence that he plays the game
with that I really like. I know they beat Georgia

(51:29):
State last week. I'm not going to over over you know,
emphasize that, but I'm down on Kentucky. I mean, I
was on Toledo last week. I thought they had a
chance to win that game out right. There were a
couple of spots where I was like, Toledo is making
it interesting against Kentucky. I would probably lay it in
this one. You're seeing a you know, it came off

(51:51):
of the ten. It looks like it opened nine, jumped
to ten and a half. Now it's back to nine.
I think at nine.

Speaker 4 (51:56):
You bet on this interesting?

Speaker 6 (51:59):
All right?

Speaker 1 (51:59):
We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State, All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 4 (52:05):
I'm Brian No.

Speaker 1 (52:06):
Register with BETMGM to get instant access to the best
variety of parlay selection features, no sweat and boost tokens,
live betting options.

Speaker 4 (52:14):
And much more.

Speaker 1 (52:15):
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Speaker 4 (52:28):
Make it legendary. Speaking of legendary, huh.

Speaker 1 (52:31):
Coming up next, we have Seamus McGee, team lead of
Sports Trading at BETMGM. He'll have a shamous special and
some strong opinions as he always does. I love that
about Seamus. With today's college slate to get to it
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by

(52:52):
bet MGM, and it is time for the tire Rack
Play of the day.

Speaker 3 (52:56):
Herbert to the end Zone.

Speaker 5 (52:58):
Contented touchdown, Herbert to Keenan Allen.

Speaker 2 (53:04):
For the score.

Speaker 1 (53:06):
Here it is compliments of KYSR all ninety eight seven
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should be. Chargers getting the win twenty seven to twenty one.

(53:29):
Nice way to start off the season. Nice way for
us to start off. A segment with Seamus McGee. Let's
get into.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
This follow the money, real good money.

Speaker 1 (53:38):
That's writer, good friend, seamous, team lead of sports trading
at BEDMGM. Good morning to you, Seamus. All Right, we
got one ranked versus ranked, so we might as well
look at it right, fifteen ranked Michigan against number eighteen Oklahoma.
Anything that you like in this game. You're a man
of strong opinions. Any strong opinions in this one, it's

(54:00):
going to be back on.

Speaker 8 (54:01):
Well, it's an interesting one. I mean this line opened
around three two and a half and it's been been
up to five and a half. Later in the week,
we moved down a touch to a juice four and
a half on Oklahoma. It's pretty rock solid traffic on
Michigan right now spreading money line. I kind of agree.

(54:23):
I think this might be too much. I wasn't super
impressive the Sooners last week. I think Michigan is probably
going to take the air of this ball a lot.
Trying to make this a little easier for Bryce Underwood.
But I get to have a strong opinion on this game,
but if I haven't, if I have a lean, i'd
probably lean Michigan.

Speaker 6 (54:44):
Yeah, I agree. I think the only concern for me
Seamus is Underwood and the moment being too big for
him on the road, and you know at Boomer Soonerville.
We'll see if he can handle that. But if he can,
I'll be honest, I think he's the better quarterback in
this game. I love Matier, but I didn't like what
I saw last week. The mechanics are a little wonky.
We just talked about Illinois at Duke, right, this is

(55:06):
a fishy line kind of game. You think Illinois is
live because you know of all the height they've gotten
this year and they're a contender in the CFP blah
blah blah, but the market's giving them no respect here,
less than a field goal favorite at Duke. I think
Duke is a very live dog in this spot. Manidiez
loves this underdog role. What do you think about this
one down in the ACC.

Speaker 8 (55:28):
Yeah, I like Duke today. It's been a lot of
Illinois money too, and this line really hasn't budged much
at all. I think you're right, this line is kind
of fishy today. But I think this should be closer
to a pick honestly with Duke Wow.

Speaker 5 (55:44):
Hey, Seamus, anything happen over the past two weeks, Week
zero or Week one that has really influenced batting lines,
even futures heading into week two here, I mean.

Speaker 8 (55:58):
We're still trying to get our feet throughout the season.
I've taken a lot of money on you know, some
LSU national title. Uh, people are starting to maybe stayed,
you know Texas on the futures. It's just a lot
of you know, early quick reactions. The season is so long,
Like everyone freaked out about arch Manning last week and

(56:21):
it's probably the toughest game he's going to play this season. So,
I mean, it's it's still just so hard to gauge,
just like what's real and what's not that we've see
through like the best the last couple of weeks.

Speaker 1 (56:34):
You know, I think of you with the week like this,
because of all the FCS teams that are playing, it
just screams with Seamus McGee, right, is there like an
FCS versus FBS matchup that you like the most today?

Speaker 8 (56:49):
Well, there's two. One is my official play, but the
other one I'm going with right now is your classic,
like under single digit point favorite, if that is only
laying about touchdown at home against Sacramento State. I think
Sacramento State's live in that game. Just whenever you look
at those games the FCS teams, they didn't win these

(57:10):
games a lot more than they don't, So I think
Sacramento State definitely live in that one.

Speaker 6 (57:16):
Yeah, you make a good point about the Texas thing.
I think the problem that Arch has is that we've
hyped him up so much in the media that if
he plays average, it's like the you know, the end
is near. People forget that that that was really his
first big time start in college football and he was
facing a Matt Patricia defense that I think is going

(57:37):
to be very good this year. Speaking of defense, we
love when Iowa and Iowa State play each other because
we don't expect a lot of offense. However, I was
shocked Seamus that the total in this game started with
a four. How about that? Are we going to see
a shootout then the Syawk today? Yeah?

Speaker 8 (57:54):
How about that? It's I hate a funny one. I'm
seeing a lot of people like me over this year too. Well, personally,
I'm probably not gonna touch it, but I mean, as
far as the game goes, it's pretty balanced. I'd say
both sides. I mean not really a need on this game,
and even the totals, like we're starting to see just
balanced action. It's looking like a pretty good book in

(58:16):
that game for the house.

Speaker 5 (58:17):
Yeah, you know, early in the season, before we see
a ton of these teams. I know I fall prey
to this. I think we look at trends and I
just cited one, and I'm curious your thoughts on this.
So Duke football has the best home record in the
ACC over the last three seasons. Taking on the road
favorites the allion. I They're seventeen and three in their

(58:40):
last twenty home games. So you look at that trend
and you say, Okay, the number or I should say
the spread push through a key number.

Speaker 3 (58:52):
It feels like you should take Duke.

Speaker 5 (58:55):
Explain to me, though, why trends sometimes can mislead you
or do you believe in them early in the season.

Speaker 8 (59:02):
I think trends matter in the right context. That trend
just tells me Duke's been a really solid home team
last three years. Then it just it's another piece you
can add to the puzzle you're trying to put apart
to your your handicap here. I don't think it's a
bad trend. I mean, it's just one of those things
you gotta sample size matters, like how much does that

(59:24):
Duke team last three years still on this team. That's
the things you got to like factor in, especially in
college football NFL. It might work with you know, coaches
and whatnot if you have continuity, but this era of
college football, you gotta be you gotta be really careful
with the trends that you play, just because you know,
if a trend goes back five years, how much does

(59:44):
that matter if none of those guys were even playing
for the team back then. But I don't think that trend,
you know, is like, you know, just throwing out the
window like it's useless. I mean, I think it does matter.
This team is comfortable at home and they like playing there,
and there's definitely a lot of guys on Duke Urse
still of those teams that were really good at home.

Speaker 1 (01:00:02):
All right, Seamus, you are a master of the teas
right there. I've got two FCS teams in mind. I'm
going to give you one of them right here and
save it the other one from my Shamus Special here,
beautiful job by you.

Speaker 3 (01:00:18):
Radio just.

Speaker 4 (01:00:20):
Stands up and applauds that.

Speaker 1 (01:00:22):
So we got to know what's the shame of special
you have circled here on the FCS level.

Speaker 8 (01:00:27):
Well, I was tee it up with a great question
about trends right before, and this is a trend I
think that does kind of matter. Kirby Smart has never
covered a forty point spread as the head coach of Georgia.
It's almost an annual pick I do.

Speaker 3 (01:00:43):
I feel like.

Speaker 8 (01:00:43):
Every year on this show, give me the Governors of Austin.
T Wow, you can find a forty six and a half,
forty eight and a half maybe still hanging out there.
This team is coming off a twenty point win at
Middle Tennessee last week. I Kirby Swarting takes the foot
off again a little bit. So we're just we're trusting
the system and we're taking the Governor's Austin p plus

(01:01:06):
forty eight and a half. I mean it is as
good to forty six and a half. If if that's
all you can.

Speaker 1 (01:01:10):
Get, that's beautiful, love it, awesome stuff, all right, Seamus.

Speaker 4 (01:01:15):
Good stuff has always been hope you enjoyed the day.

Speaker 1 (01:01:17):
I mean, you're gonna have to cope with no Notre
Dame fighting Irish today, the only ranked team not in action.
But I think you'll find it enough excitement. Man, Hope
you enjoyed the day.

Speaker 8 (01:01:27):
Yeah, we'll take it. Just hold your nose, bet Austin P.
And then yeah, we'll call it a day.

Speaker 2 (01:01:31):
That's it.

Speaker 6 (01:01:32):
That's all you need to know today, Austin P.

Speaker 4 (01:01:34):
Yeah, there it is.

Speaker 1 (01:01:36):
There is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports trading at
bet MGM.

Speaker 4 (01:01:39):
Always love hearing from him.

Speaker 1 (01:01:41):
How about this this This is like the exact opposite
of most of Seamus's plays. And I mean that as
a compliment Seamus. If you look at I don't know,
like his top five picks of this week or even
last week, it'd be like Austin P. It'd be Sacramento State,
it'd be you know, like your nose specials. But how

(01:02:02):
about this last week, Week one of the college football season,
the five most bet sides by money total at betmgm. Right,
the most money that's bet on these teams. All those
favorites lost all of them, like the most popular bets.
If you I shouldn't say favorites because Texas was an underdog.

(01:02:22):
Everybody else was a favorite, but the most popular bets
by money on BETMGM they all lost, So it was
first was Texas plus one, and some schmucks on this
show were on that too. Alabama minus fourteen, they lost
outright Notre Dame minus three, they lost out right to

(01:02:43):
Miami Clemson minus four, they lost out right at home
to LSU, and then Indiana minus twenty four. They won
but didn't cover the spread. So what I see that
every now and then and I'm like, what trap did
the public fall into with all five of those picks?
You know, because if you start thinking about it, you're like, well,

(01:03:04):
those are all brand names, with the exception of Indiana.
But it's like, well, okay, but Texas was playing Ohio State.
Ohio State, it's a brand name. LSU, they were Clemson's opponent.
LSU is also a brand name, so it can't just
be the brand name that. Do you see a common
theme with those five teams? How of the most public
sides they were all wrong.

Speaker 5 (01:03:26):
What's interesting, Brian, is this happens all the time. It
happens all the time where it's either a name you
know or like you know, it's actually the reason why.
On the parlay Platder, we were discussing it before we
actually launched into the segment. Jared and I were having
a side conversation about whether to take UNLV on the

(01:03:48):
money line or take the points, and it's like, yeah,
I mean, if you believe in them and it's that
short of a spread, just take them on the money line.
It's part of a parlor anyway, makes a little more
interesting all those things. And I think it's the reason
what's drawn me to that game is it feels like
the only reason why that's spread isn't bigger or or

(01:04:09):
I should say even UNLV is favored in that game,
is because they're facing UCLA.

Speaker 3 (01:04:14):
Like it's just the name.

Speaker 5 (01:04:16):
If you're watching the football, you know UNLV is the
better football team right now. They just are. They just
are now. Should they win? I think so? I think so.
So the money line is an easier bet when you
feel that way. But that's what happens. We convince ourselves
of narratives like look at all the money pouring in
on the Broncos right now heading into the NFL weekend.

(01:04:37):
You think about the reasons why cam Ward has been
the quietest number one overall pick we've ever heard of
Have you heard anything about cam Ward leading to the season. Nothing,
Nothing that gets me nervous. The public loves the Broncos
take the dogs, you know what I'm saying, Like, it's like,
it's those things, and so it makes sense.

Speaker 3 (01:04:56):
I should have smelled it coming. I was on the
wrong side of the Texas. I was thinking of myself
the whole time.

Speaker 5 (01:05:01):
I'm like, I can feel the avalanche coming downhill, but
I couldn't stop myself.

Speaker 3 (01:05:05):
And I think a lot of people are like that.

Speaker 6 (01:05:08):
I agree. I also think that we do over emphasize
the fade the public narrative a little bit. Yeah, I
think it's very fluky. It's five football games, like it
just happened to go that way. I mean, let's be honest.
I think if you really dissect all of those games,

(01:05:28):
those were very high profile games that were very coin flippy. Right,
what were the five again? It was was it? What
was it?

Speaker 1 (01:05:36):
So Texas? Yeah, against Ohio State, Alabama, Alabama against Florida State.

Speaker 6 (01:05:41):
That one was That one was the one that was
probably we should have, you know, picked.

Speaker 4 (01:05:46):
Up Notre Dame taken on Miami.

Speaker 6 (01:05:49):
One score game could have gone either way.

Speaker 1 (01:05:50):
Could have Yeah, no doubt Clemson taken on LS one score.

Speaker 6 (01:05:54):
Game could have gone either way.

Speaker 1 (01:05:55):
And then Indiana didn't cover as a twenty four point favorite.

Speaker 6 (01:05:59):
That one's the outline that I think probably, you know,
on a normal week, probably wouldn't be in the top
five plays. Those were all high profile games that were
very close, other than the Alabama one. But even the
Alabama one, I think it was just the spread was
a little too high. I think Bama was in that game.
They just shouldn't have been favored by two scores. They
probably should have been a one score favorite. I just

(01:06:20):
I think we grasp to narratives very quickly in the
betting and the football space. We're trying to find a
reason why we lost our bet. We're trying to find
a reason why this team won or lost, and it's
easy to say, well, everybody was on them, so that's
why they lost. Again, I think it's fair to say

(01:06:42):
everyone was on them, that's why they weren't a great bet.
But that's not why they didn't lose the game. You
think you think Texas, Yeah, you think Texas. Like, man,
everyone's betting us today, We're gonna suck even more than
we normally do. Like, it's just it's not the reason why.
It is very explain like explanatory. Is that a word explanatory?

Speaker 4 (01:07:05):
Yeah, I don't know if that's a word or ound.

Speaker 6 (01:07:06):
Yeah. If that's a word, I'm going to use this
explanatory explanatory. It is an explanatory way to describe the games.
It is not predictive of what is actually going to happen, because,
for example, last year in the NFL, favorites and the
public went crazy, so crazy that the major sports books
had to lower their revenue guidance for the year because

(01:07:28):
of quote unfavorable customer results. Aka, we lost a lot
of money on football in the fourth quarter of twenty
twenty four, so we had to lower our revenue guidance.
That's how good of a year it was for the
betting public in the NFL. Odds are probably not going
to happen this year. But it just it's random. It's
a ball that bounces in a weird way, and we're like, yep,

(01:07:50):
that's the reason why. Because all the public was betting
on and to bounce this way, but the gambling gods
decided it was going to bounce the other way.

Speaker 4 (01:07:57):
No, that's in an interesting take.

Speaker 1 (01:08:00):
I can't get it out and interesting take. It was
so interesting I couldn't speak. I was blinded. But the
brilliant of that. No, but it's true. I think that
a lot of times that listen. It reminds me of
Sports Center. Hang with me on this, because for years
they would show a mistake pitch in baseball, and the

(01:08:21):
mistake pitch like over the heart of the plate gets
you know, driven out to left field four hundred and
fifty feet and they're like, uh, the pitch was supposed
to be here. It was here right down the middle,
and wow, what.

Speaker 8 (01:08:34):
Do you know?

Speaker 4 (01:08:34):
A home run?

Speaker 1 (01:08:35):
And I always used to get mad because I'm like,
do you know how many mistake pitches are? Swings and
misses happens all the time, right, But we'll just be like, oh,
it was a mistake pitch, so that's why it was
a home run. I mean maybe, but they made it
sound like it's a certainty. And what you're explaining, Jared is, yeah,
we can go a little bit too far over the
top with all the publics on this team. Definitely go

(01:08:58):
the other way. Here's breaking new. Sometimes the public teams wins,
Like sometimes those public teams are the right side. And
I think if I'm trying to figure out what these
five picks had in common, and I think what they
have in common is that was the more comfortable side,
right and that.

Speaker 4 (01:09:18):
Doesn't mean that you're doomed to lose that bet.

Speaker 1 (01:09:20):
But I think over time you'll see this, the more
uncomfortable side is more times than not, the better way
to go. Because if you look at those top five
Texas you've got arch manning number one recruit versus Julian
saying that's not all the game was, but that was
a part of it. I think Texas is a little

(01:09:40):
bit more comfortable. Alabama is certainly more comfortable than a
Florida State team that was two to ten the season prior.
Notre Dame brand name just went to the National Championship
game against Miami Mario christa ball. They seem to shrink
in bigger moments. Notre Dame is the more comfortable side.
Same thing with Clemson. LSU can't win as he's an opener.

(01:10:01):
Clemson's at home, they're more comfortable, and I you, I
think it was somewhat from the season prior and then
old dominion. It's just unfamiliarity, like, do I want to
be the dope that takes Old Dominion plus twenty four
when Indiana blows them out. No, they're all the more
comfortable sides, and it doesn't mean you're doomed if you
take that. But something to keep in mind, oftentimes the

(01:10:23):
more uncomfortable pick is the one that cashes.

Speaker 5 (01:10:27):
Yeah, yeah, I love everything you just said. Early in
the week, I'm sure there was a lot of steam
on the Eagles leading into Thursday night football.

Speaker 4 (01:10:36):
Oh yeah, definitely.

Speaker 5 (01:10:38):
God, And I wasn't particularly tracking it. But if you
would have asked me on Wednesday, where's the money going,
I would have told you Eagles. You know, they're doing
the ward presentation, They're hanging the banner, they're doing that.
It's a home game Dallas Cowboys. The whole offseason, they've
been ridiculed because of how they handled Michael Parsons, and

(01:10:59):
then they go out and they have a close, close
game that results in in a narrow loss against a
division competitor who played tougher than everybody thought. You know,
it's the same thing I was just talking about with with.

Speaker 3 (01:11:15):
The Tennessee Titans.

Speaker 5 (01:11:17):
You know, I'm I'm really and I know I'm getting
ahead of ourselves, but just thinking about like all of
the talk I'm hearing about the Broncos, and I realized, like,
holy cow, like cam Ward is a number one overall pick,
Like we were literally talking about him on this show
last year on countdown for the majority of the season.
It's like he's disappeared. It's so crazy how that happens.

(01:11:40):
But but you're right. It's the uncomfortable thing to say
out loud. I like the Titans, right right, yeah, yeah, yeah,
that's a crazy thing to say. But but you're you're
right about what you said about Texas OSU. And I
didn't realize it when I was doing my own mental
math on the matchup. I was thinking to myself, I
like Texas, But do I really do I really like Texas?

(01:12:04):
Do I really love a completely inexperienced player going on
the road in that environment for the first time, with
an extraordinarily experienced staff, with a great defensive coordinator who,
by the way, I played for when I was with
the Patriots up there at OSU, who I knew was
going to drop his mad scientists plan to attack arch

(01:12:25):
Manning and get him off his spot and make him
think the entire game, and they did that with some
really deceptive play designs. Defensively, they were simulating pressure. They
were getting home with four rushers. Arch Manning had no
idea who was rushing. It was an impressive performance by OSU,
But I was help.

Speaker 3 (01:12:46):
I got caught up in the hike.

Speaker 5 (01:12:48):
In the hype, it was more comfortable to say I
like Texas than I like Ohio State. And that's how
you lose bets.

Speaker 6 (01:12:55):
Yeah, we're just trying to justify our mistakes or vice versa.
If you bet on the sharper side, everyone's on the Eagles.
I'm gonna take Dallas plus eight and a half and
then you win that bet. You're like, well, public was wrong. Actually,
the Eagles just didn't play well and they really had

(01:13:16):
no chance to cover that game after their best defensive
player got ejected before one snap. Yeah, that like that.
If you want to actually explain why they lost the
game or lost the spread didn't cover, it has nothing
to do with the public betting them. That just made
the line a little bit frothy, and it gave you

(01:13:38):
an opportunity for some value. In reality, that spread probably
should have been seven. It was seven all summer, and
then the Micah Parsons news happened, and then it was nine.
I was like, Eh, probably should have stayed at seven.
I just think we have to like as a society,
as human beings, we're trying to justify everything that we do,

(01:13:59):
and sometimes it's just random.

Speaker 1 (01:14:01):
Yeah. That's the last point is even if you retrace
your steps and Rich you're talking about Texas and OSU,
and then once OSU wins the game, you retrace your
steps and you're like, it's so clear, now, why didn't
I see this before?

Speaker 4 (01:14:15):
But if arch Manning.

Speaker 1 (01:14:17):
And the tush push works on the doorstep of a touch,
it's a completely different game. Texas might win that game
if they punch it in right there. So it is
still pretty random, no doubt.

Speaker 4 (01:14:28):
We got Rich.

Speaker 1 (01:14:28):
Orenberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst,
I'm Brian No. Be sure to check out the new
looking features in the BETMGM app. It's fast and easy
access to the sports you love. It's the fastest BETMGM app. Ever,
it's easier than ever to find the bets you love.
It's a more personalized experience with popular picks tailored to you.
And a new rewards hub with all of your personalized rewards,

(01:14:52):
and new players can receive up to fifteen hundred dollars
back in bonus bets with bonus code countdown if they
don't win their first bet. That's code countdown in the
bet MGM app. All right, coming up next, prop it up.
That's right, the prop betting market. We've got stuff circled.
We'll compare notes coming up. Maybe a rebound performance is
what I've got my eye on. It is Fox Sports

(01:15:14):
Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM. It is Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. Be
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Just search Fox Sports Radio on YouTube and you'll see
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(01:15:36):
Let them fly around, especially compliments.

Speaker 4 (01:15:38):
We like those better.

Speaker 1 (01:15:39):
Let us know who's takes you like and even whose
takes you don't like. Just search Fox Sports Radio on
YouTube and subscribe. All right, let's do this.

Speaker 2 (01:15:52):
Prop it up plays?

Speaker 4 (01:15:56):
Okay, prop it up?

Speaker 1 (01:15:58):
Looking at the prop betting market, Jared, we start with
you with something you.

Speaker 6 (01:16:01):
Like I'll give you one in a high profile game,
the high profile game Oklahoma and Michigan. I'm gonna go
John Mattier under two forty one on a hook passing
yards playing a dollar of fifteen over at that MGM
low total game right, and the total keeps going lower.
I'm lower lower lower in the market, get low game low.
Sometimes you can find residual value in the prop market.

(01:16:24):
Right total starts in the mid forties, gets bet down lower. Well,
sometimes the prop numbers don't always go as low as
the total goes. So I think the passing yards prop
year makes sense because I think it's gonna be a
phone booth kind of game. Michigan Year two of the
Wink Martindale defense. Not a lot of household names on
this defense, but they got a thumper at safety, Brandon Hillman.

(01:16:47):
He's going to play a great center field. He's going
to take away the deep play. Mattier looks comfortable in
year two of this ben Arbuckle offense, but the mechanics
were whack last Week's missing a lot of throwers arms side.
He's going to face a lot more user this week
against Michigan. Oklahoma should have the lead late which should
take away the pass. I think mcgeerstay's under his passing

(01:17:07):
yards prop two forty one on a hook over at that.

Speaker 5 (01:17:09):
Mpm okay UNLD hosting UCLA. I love the quarterback at UNLV,
Anthony Calandria. I think he's talented, he's very experienced in
the college football ranks. Came for Virginia. Has had a
great start to this season, and I think it continues. Also,

(01:17:30):
UCLA's defense completely laid down last week against Utah, just had.

Speaker 3 (01:17:35):
Forty hung on him easily.

Speaker 5 (01:17:37):
So yeah, give me Anthony Calandria going over one hundred
and eighty seven and a.

Speaker 3 (01:17:42):
Half passing yards today.

Speaker 5 (01:17:44):
I think he's going to do work as a high
completion percentage thrower against his crew and defense.

Speaker 1 (01:17:52):
All Right, So it was an ugly performance by arch
manning last week against Ohio State.

Speaker 4 (01:17:57):
I think that changes today.

Speaker 1 (01:18:00):
Texas, Let's get him some Let's get the feel goods
going on over here, you know what I mean. Taking
on a very very beatable opponent, and I just think
Texas is going to roll, and I think Sark is
going to do everything that he can against San Jose
State to get Arch feeling good, you know what I mean?
Now this is a high total, two sixty four and

(01:18:20):
a half.

Speaker 6 (01:18:21):
That's high.

Speaker 1 (01:18:22):
But San Jose State is they're kind of rough. They're
kind of rough to als to a MAC team right
out of the gate. And Sarks quote here he said,
I tell him all the time talking about arch Manning,
you're really you're not really a quarterback until they bow you.
When one thousand and five win, one hundred and five thousand,
boo you, then you know you've arrived. So he arrived

(01:18:44):
last week, you know. And that was a rough performance
by Sark. But I'm sorry by Arch off target throws,
never was comfortable. I think he looks worlds better against
a much much softer opponent. And I think Sark is gonna,
you know, do what he can to get Arch feeling good.
That means dialing up some pass plays when the game

(01:19:06):
is well in hand, run after the catch. You know
what Texas does. They throw it short and their athletes
make plays. They're gonna make a lot of plays today
against San Jose State. I think they're gonna break a
couple of long ones. They'll take arch Manning over two
sixty four and a half passing yards. He rebounds after
a rough one last week, but give.

Speaker 3 (01:19:24):
Me a bonus.

Speaker 5 (01:19:26):
The Dukie's hosting the ALIONI, Like I mentioned, they're gonna
really have to rely on the run game because of
Manny Diez's blitz package. I think, look at Aiden Laurie
to go over his rushing total right now.

Speaker 3 (01:19:38):
I found it at fifty two and a half.

Speaker 5 (01:19:41):
They're a little bit of rush by committee out of
that backfield. But I could see I could see overs
hitting in the run game for.

Speaker 3 (01:19:48):
The ALIONI interesting.

Speaker 4 (01:19:50):
Okay, yeah, the committee stuff.

Speaker 5 (01:19:53):
Man, it's tough because then all of a sudden the
two back is having a hot hand and hey.

Speaker 6 (01:20:00):
Yeah, and you're like, why is this guy on the field.

Speaker 5 (01:20:05):
I don't look good offensive Lnes creating holds anybody can
run through.

Speaker 3 (01:20:08):
Why is it that guy?

Speaker 1 (01:20:09):
It's a weird thing about props. If you're on an
over the teammates are your enemy.

Speaker 3 (01:20:13):
Works out?

Speaker 1 (01:20:14):
Coming up next a phone booth game. Oh what's going on?
Happy Saturday to you as we get all set for
wall to wall ball should be a really good day.
You know, there's just too many games for some of
them not to be awesome.

Speaker 4 (01:20:33):
He's just a numbers game.

Speaker 1 (01:20:34):
Over here right where they don't have marquee matchups in
college this week, but inevitably there are gonna be some
crazy outcome, some upsets, some wild things will happen. This
is the only ranked versus ranked game on the schedule.
That would be number fifteen Michigan against number eighteen Oklahoma.
And I'm really interested in this game. I love the

(01:20:55):
under and it keeps going lower lower, lower, and I'm like, shoot,
it's too low. Now I don't love it as much anymore.
But there are reasons why. If you look at Bryce Underwood, right,
the Michigan true freshman quarterback.

Speaker 4 (01:21:09):
Good performance last week against New Mexico.

Speaker 1 (01:21:11):
Numbers were solid, twenty one of thirty one, two hundred
and fifty one yards passing.

Speaker 4 (01:21:15):
That's nice.

Speaker 1 (01:21:16):
The one thing, though, they were able to lean on
their running game, and you look at Oklahoma's defense they
ranked second in rushing success rate allowed last season's that's
really good. And a couple of long runs by Justice Haynes,
you know, fifty yard runs last week. If they're not
able to do that against Oklahoma today, you have to

(01:21:37):
put all this pressure on a true freshman quarterback. So
that's one question is how much is Bryce Underwood going
to need to do right, how much can Oklahoma make
it about what he has to do for Michigan to win.
And on the other side, if you look at Oklahoma
last week, they played an FCS opponent, Illinois State. They
only scored on five of their ten drives, a red flag.

(01:22:01):
They weren't able to run the ball against Illinois State.
The running backs on twenty four carries, they produced sixty
seven rushing yards. What are they gonna do against Michigan.
So if we're talking phone booth game, and you know,
both teams are trying to run the rock and not
having a whole lot of success, this could absolutely be
a low scoring slugfest here.

Speaker 5 (01:22:20):
Man, Isn't it crazy? It really does feel like a
slug fest. And we're so used to blue bloods, especially
ranked blue bloods, having shootouts now, like it's just what
we expect. But if you rewind the clock to last
season with this Michigan Wolverine team, I mean, really, they
couldn't throw the ball out of a wet paper back.

(01:22:43):
It didn't take much to slow down that passing offense.
Charme Moore's got his work cutout for him, you know,
trying to bounce back after the hangover from the national
championship year and get this thing going. But landing the
highest rated offensive prospect in Wolverine football history should help
them at some point. But this is a big matchup,

(01:23:03):
and this is early in his career, and and Bud,
and and and but you know, I'm really curious to
see what he looks like as we start to peel
the high school veneer off of Underwood and we start
seeing the.

Speaker 3 (01:23:19):
Player at the collegiate level. It takes time.

Speaker 5 (01:23:22):
This is coming from a guy who was woefully unprepared
for his collegiate career when he left high school. Okay,
I went to Penn State out of Nowheresville, Long Island,
New York, not known for football until really the classes
that you know came after me East Mental High.

Speaker 3 (01:23:42):
We weren't pumping out prospects anywhere. Uh.

Speaker 5 (01:23:45):
And I went to Penn State and got my ears
kicked in for about two years before I found the
football field and then ended up starting forty games or
close to thirty thirty something I don't remember, but a
lot of games at Penn State. It took me time, though,
to learn how to play at that level. I had
to learn the speed of the game. I had to
feel the the I don't know, I had to feel

(01:24:08):
my way through it, you know. And as an offensive
line it's different. As a quarterback. Obviously, you are in
a fistfight. It is a physical confrontation every single game,
whereas playing quarterback it's more of like that, how how
far can you expand your aperture? How much of the
field can you see? How much of the vocabulary can
you learn? Can you can you get get plucked out

(01:24:32):
of America and land in France and learn the Parisian language, right,
learn the nuance of the culture. That's what joining a
new football program is. And and you you are behind
the eight ball until you're not, and you don't know
when it's going to catch up, when the lights you're
gonna go on Mentally for these players, for me, it

(01:24:54):
took two years. For the Wolverines, they're they're hoping it
doesn't take two years, hoping this happens immediately with Underwood.
So I'm very, very curious the learning curve that we're
gonna see with Bryce Underwood, who comes out of a
great program, out of the high school football system.

Speaker 6 (01:25:11):
The East Meta Jets, Baby, yeah them, Well, big game
for you guys. This week, I was checking out some
of the news day Long Island scored. I think you
play Belmour this week. So this is an awesome game.
This is really a fun game. I think to dissect
from a handicapping standpoint, because I really do think the

(01:25:33):
defenses have a big edge. Now we might look back
on this summer and laugh at how much we talked
about Arch Manning as a generational talent and how little
we talked about Bryce Underwood bryce generational talent. It kind
of actually reminds me of what happened in the NFL
with cam Ward and Shador Sanders. Like Sanders has the name,

(01:25:54):
talking about Arch and the name, but it's really cam
Ward that's got the talent. And I watched Bryce's tape
last week. Reminds me a lot of CJ. Stroud, no
wasted movement on the delivery, incredible mechanics, and a freakin'
rifle for an arm I mean, this dude can rip it.
His only weakness is in experience, and that's going to

(01:26:15):
obviously come in to play in this game. Can he
handle the moment on the road against the really tough
defense and make no mistake, Oklahoma's defense is legit I
like this Michigan backfield. Though we love Underwood. He needs
to grow up a little bit and get that experience.
But I'll be honest, I think Justice Haines has some
juice to him. He wallowed the last two years at Alabama.

(01:26:38):
That was a bad scheme fit for him much better
in the traditional eye formation at Michigan. That's what he
ran at high school where he was, by the way,
a high school All American at Buford High School in Georgia,
one of the best backs in the twenty twenty three class.
He ran a lot of eye formation and it just
wasn't a good fit at Bama. And now I think
he's gonna have a much better time at Michigan. I

(01:27:00):
don't love this Oklahoma offense. I know we love John Mattier.
I know we talked a lot about him and Ben
Arbuckle pairing up together and what they did at Washington State.
I think his eyes are very comfortable in this scheme,
but I don't like the mechanics. Again, I think he
was a little bit off with his mechanics last week,
missing a lot of throw's arm side, which tells me

(01:27:21):
that he's not quite coming through the football fully. And
that was against Illinois State, and like Brian mentioned, they
didn't run the ball well. Their offensive line got pushed
around by Illinois State. What do we think a Michigan
defense is gonna do to this Oklahoma offensive line? Year
two of this Wink Martindale scheme. Again, not a lot

(01:27:42):
of household names on this defense, but they are very
assignment sound. They are going to drop back in zone.
They're gonna stop the run with their front. They got
a couple guys off the edge that can get after you.
And like I said during the parlay player or Susan
the propit up segment, this free safety Brandon Hillman. When
you watch the against New Mexico last week, Holy smokes,
this dude is a heat seeking missile at free safety.

(01:28:07):
He will get up there and stop the run and
then get in the back and defense centerfield on the explosive.
So I really like this Michigan defense. I like when
Martinelle as a coach. The only unknown Brian is. I
just I don't know how Bryce is gonna handle this moment.
And that's what makes this game very difficult to predict.
Who's going to win?

Speaker 1 (01:28:26):
Yeah, man, it's uh, you know, I'm looking at the
props in this game, and the quarterback rushing yards is
interesting with both qbs here because John Mattier, the guy
is a playmaker, and I could absolutely it's thirty and
a half rushing yards. I could absolutely see that going over.
Of course, of course you have to sweat it out

(01:28:48):
with any sack taken, which is but Mattier, there'll be
some designed runs and also when he drops back to
pass if he doesn't have anyone open, and you know,
the clock in his head is said saying run it.
He doesn't hesitate. He will tuck it and he will
run it repeatedly. So I could see over thirty and
a half. The other side is Bryce Underwood. Now you

(01:29:09):
talk about sweating this out. It's at nine and a
half rushing yards for Bryce Underwood. But again the sack yardage, right,
Oklahoma's got a good pass rush. He takes whatever four
five sacks. He's gotta have a tough time getting over
that totally. He only has ten rushing yards. You're like, man,
almost seems like a layup. I don't know it's a

(01:29:32):
layup there, man, I think the under probably has a
better chance of hitting than not. Yeah, yeah, that aspect
of it is really interesting to me, it really is.

Speaker 5 (01:29:42):
And with so much talk about Materian Underwood, you kind
of get lost in the sauce with this matchup because
a week ago, you know, both of these teams really
led with strong defenses, and you know, looking back at
Oklahoma and what they did defensively, I mean, they were sensational.
The reason why they are going to have success this year.

(01:30:06):
It seems again it's kind of like the OPO thing
we were talking about, going against the grain, going against
your gut, thinking about.

Speaker 3 (01:30:14):
Matier, think about this defense.

Speaker 5 (01:30:17):
I mean, some unders could hit on Michigan props because
of what Oklahoma will do defensively to the Wolverines. They
held their last opponent to just three point three yards
per play, one of eleven conversion rate on third down.
I mean those numbers, even against lesser talent, those are

(01:30:40):
video game numbers. That's like when you put field goal
block on Madden, you know, or on College Football twenty five,
you know, and you're just going after the quarterback and
you know you're you're sending eleven, you know what I mean,
Like it's you're gonna you're gonna stop down and you're
gonna stop a lot. You may get hit on some
home run balls, but with a strong defensive backfield and

(01:31:01):
playing a lot of zone and and shoring things up
up front, I think this could be a give ground
grudgingly type of game, a little bit more of a
foam booth game, as you perfectly put it. Then it
will be this offensive showcase. And then on the flip side,
well actually not the flip side of it, but sort
of furthering the point, Underwood high school player who's got

(01:31:25):
one sniff at the college level so far, going in
a raucous environment. Yeah, you know, this feels very similar
to Texas OSU a week ago, where we're like, okay,
now it's this is big time.

Speaker 3 (01:31:38):
College football, folks.

Speaker 5 (01:31:40):
Let's see how he does in front of the boom
boomer sooner faithful and uh and see if he doesn't wilt.
And so I'm I'm I'm very curious what the quarterback
play looks like. But I'm this the the side of
the football, both for the Michigan Wolverines and for the
Oklahoma Sooners that I'm most focused on is the defensive side.

(01:32:01):
The Martin Dell Venables match up here as opposed to
the Underwood Matier matchup.

Speaker 6 (01:32:09):
Yeah, this is this game's gonna be won by which
defense is able to make that late play. I think
both offenses are gonna be very conservative. I don't love
I'll be honest. I I'm hearing a lot of Matier
Heisman hype. I'm sorry, I don't see it for two reasons. One,
Oklahoma's defense is really good, guys, and they're playing in

(01:32:31):
the SEC. They need to win games, they don't care
how they win them. There are no style points in
the SEC, and this is not a quarterback that has
a ton of weapons. So I just don't see any material. Like,
if you're betting Materir to win the Heisman, save your money,
please save it, Give it to me. I'll make a

(01:32:52):
better bet. I just don't think he's gonna put up
the numbers, Like he's just not gonna put up the
numbers because they are not going to The total in
this game is forty four. That was the average score
for cam Ward last year. How many points Miami scored
in the game, and he didn't even win the Heisman.

(01:33:12):
So I just you just have to look at where
the totals are and say he's not a high he's
a great quarterback and he's gonna have a good year
if he cleans up the mechanics. But I just don't
see the Heisman stuff. I do think this is a
This is a slaber knocker game. Guys like this is not.
If you are watching this game because you like fantasy

(01:33:32):
football and offense, you are watching the wrong freaking game.
I cannot wait to see what Wink Martindale does. I'll
be honest, I think Michigan, if if Underwood grows up
at all this year, I am scared that Michigan might
be like this could this kid could be the next
god at quarterback. He is unbelievable. When you watch his

(01:33:56):
tape from the New Mexico game, he's making throws that
I'm I'm like, whoa, Like these are rifles and he
has the size and do you see the block he
through like he has all of all of the boxes checked.
The only one he doesn't have is the experience. But
he's gonna get a lot of that over the next
few weeks. If they figure if Michigan figures out a

(01:34:17):
way to win this game today, oh man, oh, people
are gonna be so pissed off. I can't wait, it's
gonna be hell. I love when people get mad when
teams they don't like win. That's why I was hoping
the Chiefs were gonna win last night. But he really
has this his generational talent quality to him that if
he can figure out a way to learn and win
on the road in the SEC and tough environments, big

(01:34:40):
ten environments. Man, I'm scared that Penn State is gonna
have to deal with this kid for the.

Speaker 3 (01:34:45):
Next three years.

Speaker 4 (01:34:47):
Yeah, yeah, there you go.

Speaker 1 (01:34:48):
There's Jared Smith FSR betting analyst, scared Penn State fan,
you know, Rich Runberger, Penn State all American. I don't
know as scared, you know, but maybe.

Speaker 4 (01:34:59):
You know, watch it Underwood closely. I'm Brian know.

Speaker 1 (01:35:02):
Hey, bet MGM players will receive college football odds boost
tokens and college Football parlay boost tokens throughout the season
to use on college football bets. Score extra winnings if
your bet with the token applied wins. Check it out
in the bet MGM app. And actually, you know, I
know Jared and I have made bets with our parlay

(01:35:22):
platter here today, right, little boost little.

Speaker 3 (01:35:25):
Twe boosted up.

Speaker 6 (01:35:26):
Yeah, that's right. Update the odds of the parlayer is
like eight to one. Now, because I here.

Speaker 1 (01:35:30):
You go, boost it up, I added Jordan Tyson, the
Arizona State fantastic wide receiver to the the other three legs.
I'm living dangerously over here. Yeah, so boost it up,
little little you know. I call it a lint bet.
Crack says peanut bet. I say lint bet. It's like
the lint in your pockets, that type of I don't

(01:35:52):
go crazy with those parlays, but.

Speaker 6 (01:35:54):
That's some expensive litt you got there in your pockets though, Brian, Well.

Speaker 4 (01:36:00):
I went with like a double saw and a half.

Speaker 1 (01:36:04):
Yeah, little twenty five dollars sprinkle, and it's like with
the bet that's sixteen to one is pretty good.

Speaker 6 (01:36:11):
Well, that's like the pizza bets now, are like you
gotta put like a hundred bucks with the pizza bet.
Pizza ain't cheap here on the strip.

Speaker 1 (01:36:16):
Yeah that's true, no doubt. Well, at least that's the
silver lining. It increases the amount that you're betting on
the pizza bets. Right there you go, all right? Coming
up next. I think this is a bad sign for
a team with very high hopes. It is Fox Sports
Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM.

Speaker 4 (01:36:37):
It is Fox.

Speaker 1 (01:36:37):
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM, only
thirty five measly minutes away from kickoff here in that
early you know, big noon eastern kickoff window. Hey, with
the iHeartRadio app, you can stream us wherever you happen
to be. Catch us in all of our Fox Sports
Radio shows live twenty four to seven in the new

(01:36:58):
and improved iHeartRadio app. Search Fox Sports Radio in the
app to stream us live all day, every day, and
be sure to select Fox Sports Radio as one of
your presets in the iHeart app so it'll always pop
up at the top of your screen. Okay, we'll get
back to college here. But NFL Week one it resumes.
I guess tomorrow, big day tomorrow. I think this is

(01:37:21):
a horrible sign for a team with high hopes that
would be Niners. Running back Christian McCaffrey missed practice yesterday
with a calf issue, and of course, you know CMC
is say, oh, no big deal. You know you tweaked
it in the workout, just playing it safe. Nothing to
see here. I can't help but think of last year
right where it was the same thing. You remember leading

(01:37:43):
up to that first game, it was like, Hey, Christian
McCaffrey hopes to play against the Jets, and then it
was like, hopefully he's gonna play in the first four
games or the first eight games. The dude missed half
the season because of those injuries before he even got
on the field, So I hope that's not what we're
in store for. But for a guy who's had as
many issues with his legs, you know, like around his

(01:38:06):
achilles in areas, calf issues, when he's out due to
a calf issue, if I'm a Niners fan, my heart
is in my throat right now, like, oh my gosh,
is it happening again this season? And especially with the
wide receivers that are banged up for the Niners. You
can't afford not to have Christian McCaffrey at full strength.

(01:38:27):
And he's not at full strength right now.

Speaker 3 (01:38:29):
No, he's not.

Speaker 5 (01:38:31):
And you can't convince me, or I should say, more importantly,
he can't convince me that it is in a lingering
issue or something that he's specifically worried about. It doesn't
matter how many times the media asks him, how many
different ways they ask him, when literally a nickname is
given to a player, you go on social media and

(01:38:53):
it's Christian.

Speaker 3 (01:38:54):
Mccaff strain, you know what I mean.

Speaker 5 (01:38:56):
Like, it's sad because that's the state of our viewership
in this country. So much is tied to these players
individual performances, even more so than when you were just
rooting for a team, because everybody has their sports betting
app and most of those folks are obviously spending their

(01:39:16):
money wagering on bet MGM and.

Speaker 3 (01:39:20):
And good on you because you get great odds and
boost tokens.

Speaker 6 (01:39:24):
But the point is, Okay riches reading the promos here,
I love it.

Speaker 5 (01:39:31):
But you know what's what's amazing about this though, honestly,
is is how how much Kyle Shanahan in this offense
really really leans.

Speaker 3 (01:39:43):
On their skill around their quarterback.

Speaker 5 (01:39:47):
If you think about it, when you think about teams,
whether it be NFC teams or AFC teams writ large,
who have great chances of having success, we talk about
their quarter We talk about their quarterbacks. We talk about
you know, the Jordan Loves of the world, you know
in the NFC. You know, we talk about the Matthew

(01:40:09):
Staffords of the world in the NFC or the Jared Goffs.
It's amazing how much we talk about Kittle and Ricky
Piersall and and Christian McCaffrey and will they turn it
around at receiver, Like there's there's so much emphasis placed
on the skill around Brock Party. Meanwhile, they just handed

(01:40:31):
him fifty million dollars a year. Yeah, and man, it
just goes to show you how important, how important that
offense is by committee. And we saw a down year
out of brock Purty last year after having early success
in his career. And did he does he deserve the money? Absolutely?
He does in my opinion. You can't convince me otherwise.

(01:40:54):
The guy is a stud. He understands the game. He
understands the nuance of the game. He was prepared for
his pro career. Kyle's father, Mike, fell in love with
this guy during training camp when he was a seventh rounder.
You know, he looked at him and said, our best
quarterback on this team is buried on the draft, on

(01:41:15):
the depth chart. Meanwhile, we have Trey Lance in the
draft all those years ago. Now we fast forward to
where we're at now. Still the emphasis is on the
pieces around Party, So it's appropriate to be worried about
the San Francisco forty nine ers opportunity or chances of
success without Christian McCaffrey, because I.

Speaker 3 (01:41:37):
Think those two, those two linear pads are directly tied.

Speaker 5 (01:41:44):
If the forty nine ers are gonna have success, it's
gonna be because Christian McCaffrey is healthy. I don't see
it any other way. They need a strong running game
in that offense they do. They need to lean on
getting the defense's attention closer to the line of scrimmage
so they can hit on some of those deep over
routes that they like to hit on, so that they

(01:42:05):
can get the play action game going, so that brock Party,
through the offense, can disguise intent and find more open
windows downfield. Now Kenny win games, Yeah, we've seen it.
We've seen second half comebacks, fourth quarter comebacks out of
brock Party. He is a special talent at this league.
But is he elevating this roster like a Patrick Mahomes.

(01:42:28):
Is he elevating this roster like you know, the the
Aaron Rodgers of yester year.

Speaker 3 (01:42:34):
You know the answer is no, not yet.

Speaker 5 (01:42:37):
You know, there's a strong reliance on this running back
and it is a worrisome situation that he has a
reoccurring injury and it's popped up again here in the preseason.

Speaker 6 (01:42:47):
Yeah, we love a good deep over route, a good dover.
That's one of my favorite schemes. We see Sark, big
Sark guy. If you're a Texas fan, that's his favorite scheme,
and obviously Shannon Hand and a bunch of coaches run
that in the NFL. I am excited to see San
Francisco this year. I think they couldn't have gotten any

(01:43:10):
worse with the injury luck last year. But that being said,
when I was going through their injury report on Thursday,
when I was taping my NFL podcast, it took me
like three scrolls to get through the whole thing. Like
you know when you're doing the little the little mouse
scroll and you got the little wheel and you go
boom boom boom. Like it took me three times to
get through the whole thing. That's how long that injury

(01:43:31):
report was. It's crazy. I don't like what kind of
voodoo magic is going on with San Francisco that their
whole team is hurt again before the season even starts.
I hope it's just a precaution for Christian McCaffrey. I
have no idea if he's going to be healthy or
not this year. It doesn't look like he's going to be.
But you just hope that you know, they're just being very,

(01:43:52):
very cautious with him because of the prior issues. I
don't think it's a coincidence, guys, that divisional underdogs have
done very well in Week one traditionally in the NFL,
and we've seen two divisional underdogs. One of them win
outright and the other one almost went out right and
cover the first two games of the year. Well, guess

(01:44:16):
who San Francisco plays on Sunday, divisional game on the road,
a home divisional underdog, which have been even more profitable
than just the divisional underdogs in Week one. So you
get Atlanta this week, small home pooch against Tampa. You
get Seattle this week, another small home pooch against San Francisco.

(01:44:39):
If you're really brave, yeah, you've got the Cleveland Browns
this week game home pooch, actually a moderate sized, medium
size jackpot sized home pooch against the Cincinnati Bengals. But
these divisional underdogs, guys, they've been covering and they've been
winning in Week one.

Speaker 1 (01:44:57):
Traditionally, the last thing I'll say on the Christian Caffree
calf injury. Again, it's shades of last year. I don't
know that he's gonna miss the first eight games, but
it's like the same timeline.

Speaker 3 (01:45:09):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:45:09):
So he suffered from bilateral Achilles tendonitis last season. He
missed the first eight games and it was initially announced
as a.

Speaker 4 (01:45:18):
Calf strain, and so.

Speaker 1 (01:45:22):
You can't afford for that to play out again this
season for a second straight year. So hopefully, fingers crossed
he'll be okay. But I guess on a more positive note,
of all these Week one games that are left, we
got fourteen of them, right, which is the one that
you're most looking forward to?

Speaker 4 (01:45:38):
Do you have one circled more than any of the others.

Speaker 3 (01:45:41):
Yeah? Yeah, And.

Speaker 5 (01:45:44):
I look, you know, I know I've mentioned it a
couple of times because I'm so curious why it's been
so quiet.

Speaker 3 (01:45:53):
I'm really really curious what this Titans offense looks.

Speaker 4 (01:45:56):
Like, Wow, you're all.

Speaker 6 (01:45:57):
Over it, man, Tennessee guy at about five and a
half wins on the Titans.

Speaker 3 (01:46:01):
I don't blame Yeah, it's just been eerily quiet.

Speaker 5 (01:46:07):
We haven't heard word one out of their camp and
I'm honestly not out of their camp. But the national
media has spent zero time covering the Titans offense. And
I think he's looked sharp in the preseason. The limited
action he's seen, I think he's an NFL ready quarterback.
The amount of time he played at the collegiate level.

(01:46:29):
We're just talking about Brock Perdy. Why was he so
ready for the NFL. It's because of how many reps
he got at the collegiate level. Yeah, it was at
Iowa State, but those are reps he saw a live
game action over four years in college.

Speaker 3 (01:46:42):
Cam Ward very.

Speaker 5 (01:46:43):
Similar track, and I feel like the luster has gone
on these one year starters at the college level. Who
are these breakout stars coming to the NFL? And really
kind of that We've seen a lot of these players
get into the early action of their career and flop
a little bit or have the flop sweats. They don't

(01:47:03):
know how to react to certain circumstances. They haven't seen
enough ball, and so I'm very curious And it's a
great matchup if you think about it. Sean Payton and
what he's been able to do with bo Nicks really
promising preseason preview for the Broncos.

Speaker 3 (01:47:19):
I'm excited for Denver.

Speaker 5 (01:47:21):
I think that we just watched an AFC West matchup
in Brazil and the Chargers are able to knock off
the Chiefs, and that's fun. But this burgeoning storyline with
the Denver Broncos is an interesting one because that's a
real coach and I think that's a real quarterback.

Speaker 3 (01:47:38):
But I look.

Speaker 5 (01:47:39):
At what Tennessee has and I see a real quarterback,
and so I'm very very curious how that game goes.
I think it's gonna be much closer than think people
think it will be.

Speaker 6 (01:47:51):
Wow, it's hard to pick one in Week one, right,
It's like a lazed potato chip. You can't eat just one.
Detroit Green Bay is just dripping with drama. Of course,
the Packers getting Parsons, you get the Lions coming off
their crazy year. Here's a sneaky one under the Raider.

(01:48:11):
I mean, obviously, I think Buffalo Baltimore is also playoff rematch.

Speaker 1 (01:48:14):
I think I know the one you're gonna go with.
You know, guess I'm gonna guess Texans Rams.

Speaker 6 (01:48:20):
Oh close close. It is a game that involves two
teams from out of division, playing each other with different expectations.
I'm really interested to see this Raiders Patriots game.

Speaker 1 (01:48:35):
Nice.

Speaker 6 (01:48:35):
Yeah, well, I'm honestly, and I did a film study
over the summer on Chip Kelly, and I think this
Raiders team has a chance to be much better than
expected and the opposite for New England. Everyone's been hyping
up New England this summer, and I love Drake May,

(01:48:56):
but I don't think Mike Rabil is gonna roll in
there and fix all of the problems that New England has.
They had big offensive line issues last year. Christian Gonzalez
is now out for this game. He's their best corner
and I think that gives Chip Kelly and Gino maybe
a little bit of an edge in the passing game.
I think Ashton Genty can he do what he did
in college last year at the NFL level. Everyone's questioning

(01:49:16):
Boise you know Mountain West and he doing in the NFL.
I think he might be the real deal too. So
this is another sneakily ficially lined game right the Patriots
at home. Everyone thinks New England's going to be this
playoff team, and it's the lowly Raiders and the spreads
two and a half like what the Patriots are at
home and they're not even laying a full field goal

(01:49:37):
to the freaking Raiders. So that game's kind of caught
my eye as one of these hmm kind of games
this week. Obviously not the highest profile game, but very
intrigued to see how Vegas looks with this new look offense.

Speaker 1 (01:49:50):
Nice, you guys are true football junkies. I love this,
Jared looking forward to the Raiders ras the tight nuns Man.
You guys are over here, like the Marquee matchup, the
primetime games just dripping with storylines. Ravensville's Vikings Bears just
a quarterback matchup in Vikings Bears with JJ McCarthy Caleb Williams.

(01:50:13):
Those guys are completely under the microscope, you know, and
you get it. You understand why I love like the
sort of under the radar but shouldn't be Texans Rams.
I love that matchup. I can't wait to see that game.
But Jared, the first one you mentioned is the one
above all others. It's the Lions and Packers for me,
because I think with the Micah Parsons trade, the Packers

(01:50:34):
are like the IT team. They've got way more buzz
than the Lions do it and the Lions went fifteen
and two last season. You know, I feel like there's this,
oh man, their schedule is brutal, and it's almost like
you're kind of like mentally checking out of all things
Detroit Lions. I think that's a mistake, like my old
head coach Ray Garza in grade school football, just mistake.

(01:50:56):
I think it's a mistake to just overlook the Lions.
Like if anyone can navigate a brutal schedule, I think
it's the Lions. So I can't wait to see that
first game. How many snaps does Micah Parsons get? You know,
it might need a back injection to get on the field.
Another thing that is like completely under the radar, so

(01:51:18):
Packers wide receiver Jaden Reid he plans to play through
a Jones fracture in his left foot this season. He
should be active for Week one. I read that, I'm like, Oh,
he's just gonna just play through it, you know, just
you know, bite down on the mouthpiece a little bit
harder than normal and just play right through that Jones fracture. Okay,
that sounds like it's gonna work out.

Speaker 4 (01:51:39):
Great, you know, I that's.

Speaker 1 (01:51:41):
Something that bears watching right there. I know we're fired
up about Matthew Golden with good reason, but hey, Jayden Reid,
he's an important part of their passing attack and if
he's limited big time, I don't know, that's very bad
for the Green Bay Packers trying to take hold of
that division right there.

Speaker 5 (01:51:58):
Yeah, the first game that into mine was Bill's Baltimore.
I mean, this could be a showdown that we see
again in in you know, after the new year. This
could be an AFC Conference championship game to decide who
goes and plays in the super Bowl. It's got all
of the makings for an incredible offensive, explosive cap to

(01:52:24):
the NFL weekend before we get into Vikings Bears on
Monday night.

Speaker 3 (01:52:28):
I'm thrilled for it.

Speaker 5 (01:52:29):
I feel I feel like last year it was a
toss up, you know what I mean. Josh Allen walks
with the MVP, But easily it could have been Lamar.
Easily it could have been Joe Burrow if his defense
bailed him out in any way, shape or form. Throughout
the course of the season, he played exceptional. So there

(01:52:50):
were a couple of candidates and obviously, you know, the
popularity contest shined its light on Josh Allen getting that
MVP trophy. But I love of regular season Lamar. I
love regular season Josh Allen. I feel like there are
two guys who when you watch them, the consistency of

(01:53:11):
the playmaking is always at such a high level with
the two of them. Now once you get into the postseason,
it really has felt more like a crapshoot. That consistency
has wane some in some moments. You know, obviously you
go back to a fourth down conversion that was called
against the Bills in the Championship game where you think,

(01:53:34):
if there's a microchip in the ball, maybe it's completely
different looking outcome in the Super Bowl for the Bills.
And then you look at the Baltimore Ravens and I mean,
how many times have we been disappointed by them in
the postseason with Lamar at the helm, But I'm expecting
amazing things out of that offense and likewise with the Bills.

(01:53:54):
So you couldn't asked for a better nightcap to a
weekend of NFL action. Then Bill's Baltimore. That's going to
be a fun watch.

Speaker 3 (01:54:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 6 (01:54:05):
My final note on NFL Week one is keep an
eye on the no show list. What's the no show list? Well,
I'm gonna tell you right now. It is the quarterbacks
that didn't play in the preseason. They have typically stayed
under their passing yards prop. In Week one, we've already
seen two of them in the same game Eagles and Cowboys.

(01:54:26):
Both Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott stayed way under. Now,
to be fair, Dak probably goes over if Ceedee Lamb
makes that catch late in the game, but Jalen Hurts
was a stone cold under from the start. Both Josh
Allen and Lamar Jackson did not take a preseason snap,
so I went under on their passing yards props. I
went under in the first half. Here are the other
quarterbacks playing on Sunday that did not take a snap

(01:54:49):
in the preseason. Get your pencils ready, kids, Michael Pennix,
Baker Mayfield, both playing in the same game. Maybe a
first half under in Bucks Falcons, Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers,
Matthew Stafford, and I just mentioned of course Alan and Lamar.
So under passing yards props on all those quarterbacks, especially
Aaron Rodgers against the Jets, I mean we didn't mention

(01:55:10):
that game, guys, but the double revenge narrative with Justin
Fields and Aaron Rodgers going back and forth, that one
should be a blast.

Speaker 1 (01:55:17):
Points at a premium is what I would say. We've
got Rich Hornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR
betting analyst I'm Brian not. Throughout the entire football season,
bet MGM will offer all different types of no sweat
tokens and odds boost tokens. Be on the lookout for
no sweat, same game parlay tokens, parlay boost tokens, and

(01:55:38):
so much more. All right, Coming up next the Moment
of Truth Rapid Fire, which have a bushel of selections
for you.

Speaker 4 (01:55:45):
We'll share them with you.

Speaker 1 (01:55:46):
Next, it is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented
by bet MGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to
Kickoff presented by Bett MGM.

Speaker 4 (01:55:56):
Shout out to our crew, our trusted producer, Bo.

Speaker 1 (01:55:59):
Benson, theer Zone Pod technical producer extraordinary that would be
Chris Purfett. And shout out to our guys. Sager on
digital posting our clips. You can see him on X
at Fox Sports Radio. Definitely check him out there top
of the hour up on game.

Speaker 4 (01:56:15):
You got TJ.

Speaker 1 (01:56:16):
Huschman Zada in Plexico, Burus with you today in nine
minutes from now. Keep it locked right here on Fox
Sports Radio. Those guys, you're in great hands. They got
you covered.

Speaker 3 (01:56:25):
All right.

Speaker 1 (01:56:26):
We got picks to make. Let's do it.

Speaker 2 (01:56:31):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 1 (01:56:33):
All right, Jared Smith, we start with you. We're low
on time. You only have fifteen seconds.

Speaker 6 (01:56:37):
Go yikes. I was only three last week, so I
won't even analyze. I'll just give you the plays. Texas
Tech minus forty.

Speaker 4 (01:56:43):
You get analyzed.

Speaker 6 (01:56:45):
Go ahead and yeah, analyze a little bit. Texas Tech
minus forty seven and a half first Kent State. Texas
Tech won by sixty last week against Arkansas Pine Bluff.
This is simple math here, people. I think Arkansas Pine
Bluff might be better than Kent State. That's honestly how
bad Kent State is. They're the worst team in FBS
by far. I think the Red Raiders want those style points.
They spend a lot of money in the offseason. They're

(01:57:05):
gonna run up the square a day against Kains State.
Mississippi State plus six and a half at home against
Arizona State. This is a revenge game in star Vegas
Night game. Give me more cow Bell Baby, big difference
between Desert Hot and Gulf Coast top. We'll see if
Arizona State can handle the humidity today. Camp Scattaba was
the story in this game last year ran for two

(01:57:25):
sixty two. He's in the NFL. I think Arizona States
offense might struggle a little bit on the road. I'll
take Missippi State plus six and a half and of
course Duke plus two and a half at home against Illinois.
Illinois the most popular side bet MGM today we're fading
the public right many diez undefeated against this bread as
a dog or of seven or last four and oh
straight up last year four outright wins as a dog

(01:57:48):
last year. I think Duke gets a win and covers
the two and a half points Bread.

Speaker 5 (01:57:52):
At home, all right, Michigan Oklahoma, give me the first
half under twenty one and a half. Michigan's freshman QB
Bryce Underwood first hostile road environment start.

Speaker 3 (01:58:05):
I think they both lead with defense.

Speaker 5 (01:58:07):
I think this settles under that twenty one and a
half point mark in the first half. UCLA visiting you
NLV UNLV hot start last week Ucla lurched out of
the gate against Utah. Give me Ucla struggling to put
up points early in this game. First quarter, UNLV give
me the plus.

Speaker 3 (01:58:27):
Point and a half. I think they score early.

Speaker 5 (01:58:30):
Illinois Duke, I'm gonna be on the same game as Jared,
but I'm thinking the first half under twenty four points.
I think Illinois leads with the run game against a
weak Duke rush defense. I think Duke will want to
slow the game down and feel their way against an
allion I team hosting a ranked opponent.

Speaker 3 (01:58:50):
Give me the first half under twenty four.

Speaker 1 (01:58:53):
I don't know if this is a good or a
bad sign, but we're thinking similar on a couple of
these lines. I'm on Duke plus two and a half
as well, and I underscore the reasons that Jared laid
out right there again. Manny Diaz twelve and two at home,
only lost to Notre Dame in SMU, really good at
home and not getting a whole lot of love for it.
So I like him plus two and a half today. Rich,

(01:59:13):
I can't believe it. I'm staring at my notes. Michigan
Oklahoma under twenty one and a half. First half. I'm
on the same thing. I think it's especially early on.
I think it's a slobber knocker. I don't think points
are going to be easy to come by, So over
twenty one in the hook, under twenty one in the
hook I like that one. And for my last pick,
I would like to go with Jordan Tyson, the Arizona

(01:59:34):
State stud wide receiver.

Speaker 4 (01:59:35):
Give me over ninety eight and a half receiving yards.

Speaker 1 (01:59:38):
I wanted to fade Iowa's quarterback Mark Gronowski under one
thirty six and a half only three for forty four
against Albany, but I didn't