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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Are you ready to wines Cortes football fans, Welcome to
the biggest tailgate party in the nation. That'd be bro
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bett make
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(00:20):
need to watch your team win.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Let's go.

Speaker 1 (00:25):
We're here to break it all down. Look, god, this
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by Bett
emg App.

Speaker 3 (00:35):
No, we're live from your tail game.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
Here's Brian Nook, former Penn State All American, Rich Hornberger,
and FSR betting analyst Jared Smith.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Oh, what's going on?

Speaker 4 (00:47):
Welcome in, Happy Saturday to you as we are off
and running. We got three college football playoff games today,
a couple of NFL games as well. Nice full slate
of all today. Very excited about it. Good morning, Jared,
Good morning Rich. Football is well with you, guys. I'll
tell you what I think off the jump.

Speaker 2 (01:09):
We have to.

Speaker 4 (01:11):
We have to redo a model which was ripped off
by the way. I didn't know Oklahoma had this whole
mantra of hard to kill. This is our guy, Kirby Smart.
Kirby Smart said this earlier this year. This is my
favorite sound bite of the season.

Speaker 2 (01:30):
The one thing we are we're hard to kill.

Speaker 4 (01:33):
That's right, Kirby Smart. That's a beautiful thing right there.
As after they came back against Old Miss had a
brilliant fourth quarter, and he said that. And then last
night at Oklahoma they got hoodies what's hard to kill
and fifty cent is coming out with hard to kill
on his shirt.

Speaker 2 (01:48):
I'm like, what is going on?

Speaker 4 (01:49):
This is a Georgia.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
Thing, right.

Speaker 4 (01:51):
We need to rebrand this hard to not kill ourselves
because that's what Oklahoma did last night. You talk about
shooting your elf in the foot and killing yourself time
and time again. They had a seventeen to nothing lead
and threw it in the trash. That was unbelievable. Man,
that was That was a horrible display by Oklahoma. And listen,

(02:14):
I don't want to take all credit away from Alabama.
You know, I've been critical of them. I think they're
absolute fools. Gold I don't buy their formula for success
at all. I don't think they're built to last. They
made a couple of plays last night. They pressured Matiir
who all of a sudden was like Jared Goff facing
a pass rush. I don't know what happened to Matier
last night. He was brutal Alabama made a couple of plays,

(02:35):
but that was more so about Oklahoma just killing themselves
time and time and time again. In my mind, I
don't know how you guys saw it.

Speaker 2 (02:43):
Well, listen, I'm not and I told you so guy,
But I definitely am the type of person who when
somebody says something really strong, it sticks with me. And
all of a sudden, Brian, I am noticing that your
stance is softening a little bit here, because the last
time we spoke, you and Alabama are complete frauds. They

(03:06):
are complete frauds.

Speaker 4 (03:08):
They are well nothing there, they are fulls gold. Nothing
has changed. They beat a bum Oklahoma team. Wow, you're
supposed to throw flowers at their feet?

Speaker 2 (03:18):
What are we doing here? I remember you saying Oklahoma
was going to absolutely dog walk them.

Speaker 4 (03:23):
I remember you said, you don't remember right, You don't
remember right, you don't remember right, because I never said
any of those things, So I don't know what they
tell you.

Speaker 2 (03:32):
It's uh, it's just interesting, Brian. I I look, Alabama's
a good football team. I've been saying it all season.
Do they have flaws? Yeah, yeah, they got flaws. Uh,
their run game is paltry this season. They they they
don't have the defense that we are typical typically used
to watching an Alabama team have. Now they have some

(03:54):
really significant players. You mentioned Matier was under pressure. He was,
and I mean credit to Bama for circling the wagons
in that game, fighting all the way back. When you
get down, it is really hard, even when a team
is making mistakes to help you out, and Oklahoma was,
but you have to capitalize on those mistakes. And scoring

(04:17):
thirty four points against that Sooners defense, it is nothing
anybody should sit back and say, yeah, but the Sooners, man,
they really gave that game away. No, no, no, no, no,
Alabama beat them. You don't score thirty four points.

Speaker 4 (04:34):
They didn't score There's a six in there. There's a
pick six and there's a punt where the punter punt it.

Speaker 2 (04:40):
Wait wait a second, when when when he when he
h when he threw that football? Which which team ran
that that that pick six? Backs? Was that Alabama?

Speaker 3 (04:51):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (04:51):
Oh yeah it was Alabama. They did score those points.

Speaker 4 (04:54):
You're talking about Oklahoma's defense and then you're you're talking
about them scoring thirty four and I'm like, they didn't
score thirty four on Oklahoma's defense.

Speaker 2 (05:02):
Let's just make that Let's make that clear. Okay, So
so we'll take six points off the board and said
they score twenty eight. They still beat them. Brian, So look,
I mean, my point is my point. Alabama's a good
football team. They're not frauds. It's a silly thing to say. Well, listen,
you could keep saying it didn't sound ridiculous, and I'm

(05:22):
fine with it. But but the the reality of this
situation is, this is now not only a playoff team,
but this is a playoff team who has one win
under their belt heading closer to a potential national championship.

Speaker 3 (05:37):
Bin.

Speaker 2 (05:37):
Now, do I think they're gonna win a national championship
this year? No, I don't. I think there are better
teams in this field. Last why not?

Speaker 4 (05:44):
I mean, they're they're powerful, they're unbelievable.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
I said Alabama's a good team. You're the one who's
calling them frauds. I think they're a good team. Do
I think they can win a national championship? And I've
been consistent with this. This doesn't look like a national
championship winning Alabama team. But I'm not gonna see here
and call them frauds, especially sitting waking up this morning
looking at the result of that game and saying to yourself, yeah,

(06:07):
fool's gold. I mean, it's like I said, it's fine
if you want to keep saying it. I would not
want my name attached to that.

Speaker 3 (06:14):
I think he's just being stubborn because he doesn't want
to come off his take. I honestly think that's what
it has nothing.

Speaker 2 (06:20):
To do with that.

Speaker 4 (06:21):
You guys could not be more wrong about this.

Speaker 3 (06:24):
Well, I mean that's what it appears. Again. You have
two objects, and you could say whatever you want about
me being biased towards Alabama. I'm a gambler, I'm not like.
Let me set the record straight for our audience. I'm
not from Alabama. I'm not from the South. I didn't
go to the SEC. I'm a city slicker from New York.
I'm a Penn State kid. I have no affiliation Alabama

(06:44):
at all, and I've been pumping their tires all year
because when I watch Alabama, at least when I did
in October, Man, that ceiling was really high. I'm not
saying they showed you the full ceiling last night, but
you know how you win college football games. You win
the turnover battle and you win the explosive play battle.
Guess what Alabama won both last night plus eleven percent

(07:07):
explosive play rate in the net. They had multiple explosives.

Speaker 2 (07:12):
Including one in the running game where they ripped off
like a thirty yard run and Daniel Hill Alabama can't
run it. He scrammed it right down Oklahoma's throat into
the end zone to score the key touchdown to go
up ten in the red zone, tough yards right down
that Oklahoma defensive throat, and they won the turnover battle.

Speaker 3 (07:33):
So you want to say they're a fraud, you want
to say this, They're not a fraud. They're a good
football team that has a very high ceiling. The floor
might be a little bit lower because they don't do
some of those little things that Brian wants to see.
But that ceiling. I don't think anyone's shown you a
bigger ceiling this year in October, and they gave you

(07:54):
glimpses of it last night. Now, it's ironic that both
of these games were mirror images of each other, the
one in November where Oklahoma won and the one last night,
right both of them involved a pick six for the
road team.

Speaker 2 (08:06):
Both of them involved the missfield goal multiple misfield goals
for Oklahoma late. So I do agree that there were
moments in that game where Oklahoma beat themselves. But to
stare the national audience we have in the face and
say Alabama's terrible, like that's just hater, aid Brian, Like, honestly,
like that, when did I say they were terrible?

Speaker 3 (08:27):
You said they're fraud fools.

Speaker 4 (08:29):
Goal you are literally what you're saying. That does not
mean they're terrible at all.

Speaker 3 (08:33):
Then it's explain what that means.

Speaker 2 (08:35):
Because to an average listener, when you say something like fraud,
obviously that's a pretty heavy word. So if you don't
mean terrible, then what do you mean.

Speaker 4 (08:48):
Understand how you guys hear one thing and twist it
into another.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
We're not twisting it.

Speaker 4 (08:52):
You said they're a fraud, Brian, terrible There they are
frauds they are, so then.

Speaker 3 (08:59):
How does that not mean terrible? Like honestly, like like
those are very synonymous words.

Speaker 2 (09:05):
Did we lose? Brian?

Speaker 3 (09:06):
I think I think he was so upset about Alma
himself offline here.

Speaker 2 (09:14):
Look, you know, i I've I've played football in my
entire life. Uh, I've obviously we've all watched football our
entire lives, and it's one of those it's one of
those things where, yeah, you can smell a fraud. Trust me,
it's happened in in my time playing where you're you're
all of a sudden, the first quarter kickoff, You're you're in,

(09:36):
You're in the game, and you can feel it. You're like, oh,
this team is not as good as as everybody was
gassing them up, including our coaches. Sometimes your coaches will
lie to you a little bit and they'll gass up
a team to make you feel like they are something
they're not, just to get sort of the juices going
in the and the engines revved, and then you know

(09:56):
there's other teams where they're kind of underrated. Now if
you want to use words like, hey, I think Alabama's
been a little puffed up all season long. Then again,
a little too much win in their sales from the
national media. I don't think they're as good as everybody
says they are. Hey, you know what, you might even
find agreement with me. We had a conversation similar to

(10:17):
this earlier in the season where Brian said that Ohio
State might be overrated, and I was like, yeah, you
know what they might be because based on strength of
schedule and based on some of the teams they beat
and how they beat them. Yeah, I think I think
we can have that conversation, but to use and I
think this is where Jared and I get stuck, to
use the term frauds, to look at Alabama this season,

(10:40):
their entire resume, and then what they did last night
in their first playoff matchup, and to stick to that
feeling or to that suggestion that this team is fraudulent.
It is. It is. It's it's a hard bridge to
pass going from the side of hey, maybe Alabama's a

(11:02):
little overrated or puffed up to this team is filled
with complete frauds. I don't understand what everybody sees in them.
It's it's a cavern. And I don't know if you
can bridge that cavern. And I think, Brian, as as
you're back here with us, like I think that that
is the problem. And and by the way, you're you're
entitled to have whatever opinion you want. And I know

(11:24):
and Jared knows, we're not gonna shout you down your
your you're yeah, yeah, you're you're a proud guy like you,
you know and all that. No, no, no, I'm I'm
talking about like I know that our words aren't gonna
change your mind. I think what Jared's asking you to
do is explain what fraud means to you, because to
most people who listen to sports talk to most people

(11:45):
who listen to analysts talk about the game, when they
hear frauds after what they watched last night, it's it's
it's tough to connect those wires from what they saw
to that word. So if you could help us out.

Speaker 4 (11:59):
I can't try to listen, that's all they try to listen.
I said this the day of the first game against Oklahoma. Okay,
and back then at that time, Alabama was really being trumpeted.
That was after their most impressive streak of the season, right,
that's when they had all those wins against ranked teams.

(12:22):
They went and beat Georgia on the road, nobody does that.
They beat Vandy, they survived against Missouri, they beat a
bum Tennessee team that plays no defense, and it was
just like Bama, Bama, Bama, Roll Tide, Roll Tide. And
I'm like, look, man, they're fools. Gold This formula for
success is not sustainable. That's why I think they're fools gold.

(12:43):
That doesn't mean I think they're terrible. Of course they're
not terrible, that's ridiculous. But what they are is a
team that most people hold in high regard, especially earlier
in the season. They still hold them in high regard.
And they're not built to last when you have no
running game, when you run on for minus three yards
in the SEC Championship game against Georgia, when you're overly

(13:04):
reliant on Ty Simpson, who has gotten skittish, has gotten
inaccurate far too often down the stretch, when your defense
is just okay, you're not going anywhere when it matters.
And they got punked by Georgia, a real team in
the SEC Championship game, and they were lucky that Oklahoma,
who is off put seventeen nothing start, who is out

(13:27):
gaining Alabama, won eighty one to twelve's. They're so lucky
that Oklahoma. They didn't punt the ball. The guy missed
the ball. I can't believe that happened. And then the
pick six before halftime, Oklahoma missing two field goals when
it's a seventeen to seven game, Xavier Robinson is wide

(13:49):
open and the running back just drops the ball.

Speaker 2 (13:52):
It's at least.

Speaker 4 (13:53):
Twenty to seven right there, maybe twenty one to seven.
Like that's that's what I'm talking about with Alabama. Their
formula for success is not sustainable. They're not going anywhere
in this playoffs.

Speaker 3 (14:06):
Yeah, they already won a game in the playoff with
Like again, they're a quarterfinal team. And if Oklahoma they
want to he doesn't get a pig six.

Speaker 2 (14:15):
And Alabama doesn't miss a field goal in the game
a month ago. Alabama wins that game, So like, yes,
you're talking about margins in the playoff.

Speaker 3 (14:25):
It is slim margins. One play here, one play there
is gonna cost you the game.

Speaker 2 (14:32):
Alabama made the plays last night, and I don't understand
why instead of focusing on, Hey, let's give some credit
to Alabama.

Speaker 3 (14:38):
That that kid, that that receiver, I forget his name,
because he hasn't been a guy that's been a heralded
guy all year, but he came on really strong last night.
And then Bernard made one of the best catches I've
ever seen, like like tyree helmet catch style. But let's
just ignore all the plays that Bama made last night,
and let's just focus on all the negative from Oklahoma

(14:59):
that See, that's the part of this that I don't
think you're being a hater towards Bama more than you
are being a hater towards all Mama.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
I'm not I know.

Speaker 4 (15:09):
I know you turned into Cocaine Bear, like you turned
into proud Bear.

Speaker 3 (15:14):
I'm not a Bama fan.

Speaker 4 (15:16):
You sound like objectively, sound like you got tied across
your chest.

Speaker 2 (15:21):
I'm calling it objectively. I'm a gambler. I can't afford
to be biased and guys like Look, every everybody here
obviously cares about their their opinions. Like you know what
I mean. Look, you, Jared, you make money off of
your peers, your opinions. You you, you spend a lot

(15:42):
of money at the window. Brian, obviously you're a gambler.
You're better. You've been in this game talking about teams
like Alabama for a long time. You've seen a lot
of football. Look, I respect your opinion. I respect Jared's opinion.
My opinion more closely aligns with Jared's. But I'm also
I'm encouraging you to view this through the lens. Yes,

(16:03):
beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and everybody
has their opinion on what beauty is, but then there
are consensus things like Marilyn Monroe objectively beautiful. Sidney Sweeney,
the majority of the world finds her attractive, like Alabama
to sit here after watching what they did last night

(16:24):
playing mistake free football, coming all the way back from
a seventeen to nothing deficit and going frauds frauds. Yeah,
Sidney Sweeney's cute, but she's got that weird freckle like
it's it's kind of odd, Brian. That's what we're pointing
out to you. We're not saying that you're wrong, because
guess what, you can't be wrong in this argument because

(16:45):
it's your opinion. But we're trying to say, like, hey,
maybe you haven't looked at this portrait from this angle.
Maybe you're just looking at it from the wrong lens
or the wrong purview, and we're trying to help you
see it through the lens of what most people are seeing.
Because it's a strong word to use for a team
that not only had the credentially and the resume to

(17:08):
stand up and find their way into the postseason, but
now against one of the best defenses in the country.
They scored enough points offensively, by the way, take the
pick six off the board if you want to beat
that team. And then they also played mistake free football,
which anybody who's played football, anybody who's watched football, it

(17:28):
is insanely difficult in high pressure moments to play on
the high wire that well, and they did for sixty minutes.
So I give a tremendous amount of credit to Alabama.

Speaker 4 (17:41):
I don't know what you guys are watching, really, I
don't get it. Like to say they played mistake free football,
it is just flat out wrong.

Speaker 2 (17:47):
Like you can give them credit and.

Speaker 4 (17:48):
You can focus more on what they did instead of
what Oklahoma did to kill themselves.

Speaker 2 (17:52):
That's fine.

Speaker 4 (17:53):
But to say they played mistake free football as a joke,
like they're losing credible.

Speaker 2 (17:57):
Team to nothing.

Speaker 4 (17:58):
They they're getting out gained one eighty one to twelve.

Speaker 2 (18:01):
Homa was playing better in the first quarter, and then
they way to counter them.

Speaker 3 (18:06):
That's adjustments get made.

Speaker 2 (18:09):
Yeah, Brian, when I say mistake free football, I'm not
saying like, yeah, they got beat on some plays, and
and Oklahoma was, to Jared's point, playing better football. But
when you don't cough it up when you don't make
the mistake that's going to essentially cost you the game,
by the way, like Oklahoma did. Because like like it's
like the mental mistakes, like they crippling mental mistakes like

(18:32):
dropping a punt or dropping a pass.

Speaker 3 (18:34):
Those are the mistakes that Alabama pitn't make.

Speaker 2 (18:37):
Yeah, it's it's look again, Brian, you are entitled to
your opinion. If you want to stand on this very
lonely island and shot from the top of your lungs
that Alabamar frauds, you can do it. We're will still
be your friends. We're just trying to tell you as
your buddies get help. You know what I mean. It's
it's an it's an odd hill to die on after

(18:59):
last night, Like I like when I'm wrong about something,
I'll say, listen, I was wrong about this. This team
is better.

Speaker 3 (19:05):
Like this is an opportunity to say, you know what,
maybe I was a little bit wrong about Alabama. Maybe
they're a little bit tougher than I gave them credit for.
But it doesn't seem like that's the approach. We're gonna
think this morning.

Speaker 2 (19:15):
All Right, we're gonna we're gonna go. Brian's having a
little trouble with his connection. That's okay, But you could
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(19:38):
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Coming up, We've got plenty more college football to get
into and also some NFL action this weekend. It's all
coming up on Countdown. Right here on Fox Sports Radio.

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Speaker 2 (20:41):
This is Fox Sports Radio count Down to Kickoff, brought
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Speaker 3 (20:50):
Great, great, great choice, great, great choice.

Speaker 2 (20:53):
Ah, It's just beautiful. It's beautiful in Alabama this time
of year. It's better if you're a tied fan. Of course,
after last night's come back victory over that Oklahoma Sooners
who again? You know, if we're gonna put opinions aside
and just talk about a football game and an open
to a postseason, my goodness, could you ask for a

(21:15):
much better watch? I get it if you have stakes
in the game, Boomer Sooner or even Tied for that matter,
that was an emotional rollercoaster. But I've got no ties
to either football program. I'm just a guy who loves
to watch football. And that was good football. That was
just compelling football. I should say.

Speaker 4 (21:35):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (21:36):
And I was on Oklahoma last night. Like again, I
like we have fun on the show. It's all fun
and games. We're just trying to entertain you. Guys, we
all really do like each other. I promise we're all friends.
And when you watch that game, like objectively, it looked
like a college football game between two very evenly matched
teams where not a lot really was separating them. I

(21:58):
think Matteer's legs were a factor. That's something that ty
Simpson doesn't have. I agree with Brian that Alabama's running
game has been a big problem, but they had two
key runs in the game. They had one run that
set up a scoring drive by Daniel Hill, and then
they had the other touchdown run which really sealed the
game to go up two scores, go up ten. And
those two key runs, one of them is in the
red zone. Those are tough yards that really kind of

(22:20):
tilted it for me. And Alabama made some really good
adjustments defensively. I think Kane Wami's defense. Listen, you want
to say that the scheme is a little bit wonky
at times, like and I agree with that, Like Rich
like it's a cover, it's like a weird like scheme.
When they do run a lot of zone and a
lot of like you know, they drop, but they got dudes, man,
Like they had thirteen five stars on the two DP.

(22:42):
They have players up and down that defense, and last night,
in big moments, they made big plays and they they
had sacks, they were able to drop and prevent any
big plays, you know, explosive plays. I think there was
the one fourth down play where Oklahoma got a little
bit loose in the secondary. There for the most part,
secondary really well and in the second half, the offensive line,

(23:03):
which had been terrible protecting ty Simpson all year, kept
him clean and he was able to look down the
field and find some just incredible plays down the field
to his receivers. It was really, honestly the Bama receivers
and the ability to protect ty Simpson and to find
those receivers I thought was the difference in the game
in the second half.

Speaker 2 (23:23):
Yeah, it's uh, it's really impressive what Bama was able
to do. And hey, you know, before we uh we
welcome back, Brian, I just wanted to to uh to
to ask you, Jared, if you uh, if you saw
the the knockout last night, if you had any time
to flip over, No, you didn't see Jake Paul go
down to any see it, you know, man in that

(23:46):
mode right now, Rich where if it's not football, like
even basketball, Like I don't even have time to watch
college basketball right now, and you guys know how much
I love watching college troops.

Speaker 3 (23:54):
I have no time, like for the next two hours,
I'm just locked in.

Speaker 2 (23:57):
Yeah, c IFP has taken over my timeline as well.
That and watching the end of the NFL regular season,
which we'll get to in just a little bit here
on Fox Sports Radio as we welcome back Brian. Know
the show is not complete without him. Brian, did you
have a chance to see the I mean, I'm sure
you saw the highlights, but the Jake Paul fight. Did

(24:18):
you get to see any of that? No? I did not.
I did.

Speaker 4 (24:20):
I was watching Alabama benefit from Oklahoma shooting themselves in
the foot time and time again. But we want to
make it sound like they played mistake cree football, Like
what are we doing today?

Speaker 2 (24:30):
It's unbelievable, But.

Speaker 4 (24:31):
Like, like, here's the last thing I'll say, and we
can move it along, at least I will. I don't know,
you guys, can you know turn into orgasm boy? Like
Saturday Night Live about Alabama last night? That's fine. He
sounded like the committee over here, but like, listen, I
don't want to make it sound like Bama didn't make
any plays. Of course they made plays last night, but
what made a bigger impact was Oklahoma killing themselves time

(24:54):
and time again. Like Bernard the catch was unbelievable. Brooks
had a great game, had a touchdown, two touchdown grabs,
and the first one was really impactful because Bama was
stuck in the mud and they went forward on fourth
down and he made a nice catch and got into
the end zone. They had like three impactful runs in
the game, right you had Daniel Hill had the long run,

(25:16):
then he had the touchdown run which was right through
the teeth of the defense, key touchdown, and then you know,
Ty Simpson had a scramble. They made plays, They had
a good pass rush consistently on materia. I don't want
to make it sound like it was just Oklahoma, but
Oklahoma killing themselves had a bigger impact. When they miss
a punt and that it basically turns into a punt

(25:38):
that's blocked and they throw a pick six. There's nothing
Alabama did that was more impactful than that. So that's
where we have a disconnect where you guys want to
make it sound like Bama played mistake.

Speaker 2 (25:52):
Free football, which is crazy.

Speaker 4 (25:55):
And what I'm saying is they capitalized on mistakes, but
Oklahoma's mistakes made a bigger impact than Alabama's playmaking ever
did in that game. I mean, if we see it differently,
that's fine, but that's what I'm saying the whole top.

Speaker 2 (26:09):
Yeah, we hear what you're saying. And and trust me,
you can you can tell us that we're both pumping
up Alabama more than we should if if that's the
way you feel about what we're saying about Bama today,
the same way, and again, I think the consensus opinion
would more align with what myself and Jatterer are saying,

(26:29):
which is great.

Speaker 4 (26:30):
Alabama's really good football to the many. Great, That's what
I mean. That's why I think they're frauds. That's why
I think they're fools. Gold is because people look at
Bama and say, whoa, look at this team. Look out
right here, they're often running. It's like, no, they're not,
they're going. Now, what point a first round game?

Speaker 3 (26:45):
At what point would you change?

Speaker 2 (26:47):
Like? Is it that?

Speaker 3 (26:48):
Do they have to win a national championship for you
to change his opinion?

Speaker 2 (26:50):
That's a great question. Yeah, Brian. So, so you're telling
me for Alabama go to the championship game and lose
by field goal fools goal totals.

Speaker 4 (26:58):
Go absolutely not. If they got past Indiana.

Speaker 3 (27:02):
And book right here, they're winning that game.

Speaker 2 (27:05):
Okay, good luck with that.

Speaker 4 (27:06):
If they beat Alabama or they beat on top of
that a in Texas Tech or Oregon and made it
to the title game and on top of that had
a good showing the title So so.

Speaker 2 (27:16):
Not INDI so beating the number one seed, undefeated Indiana
Heisman Trophy winner is not enough in your mind to
get out of the fools goal.

Speaker 4 (27:22):
Well, it depends if Indiana pulls an Oklahoma or not.
You know, like, if they're just killing themselves time and time.

Speaker 2 (27:28):
Again, I'm gonna be like ry. It almost feels at
this point like we're trying to save you from yourself.
Like I mean, honestly, it's you. I appreciate it, I mean,
but I need but I mean, as as a buddy,
it's it's it's it's an odd it's an odd hill
to die on, because again it is, it is difficult.
It's a real hill.

Speaker 4 (27:49):
I'm watching the games, I'm seeing their formula for success.
If you think like like, let's let's stop for a second.

Speaker 2 (27:55):
Hang on, hang on, hand, let me just finish this point,
because I think you're really underrating something that happened last night,
and I think he gave Oklahoma a lot of flowers
for it in beating them earlier in the season, but
you're refusing to look at it through the other side
of the lens. It is really difficult to play turnover
free football when you are down seventeen points and in
desperation trying to make something happen. I've been in those situations.

(28:17):
I know how it feels. Your quarterback gets a little frenetic,
your offensive play caller gets a little frenetic. All of
a sudden, you're playing out of character a lot to
do too much. The fact that Caitlin de Bor was
able to keep the composure of that team on the sideline,
the fact that those assistant coaches were able to keep
everybody away from the trap that most teams, great teams

(28:39):
can fall into where you try to do too much
and you just stick to the plan because you believe
in the plan, and you say, hey, little by little,
we're still in this fight. We're gonna methodically undo this
team because they'll break under our will. And that's what
they did to Oklahoma, and that should not be underrated.
And that is not easy to do, and that is

(29:01):
something that only a good or dare I say a
great team can do when you put the stakes as
high as you're playing for the remainder of your season.
There is no tomorrow for Oklahoma and Alabama last night
and staring down a seventeen point deficit early. A lot
of teams roll over, a lot of teams get desperate
and they turn the ball over. A lot of teams

(29:23):
make mistakes. Alabama didn't. So when I say they played
mistake free, I can back that up a lot better
than you can back up frauds because they did. That's
only way you should vive a deficit like that, and
you come back and win against a really good Oklahoma team.
So again, I'm not saying we can't be friends because
you have this terrible take. I'm just trying to help

(29:45):
you see it from the other side.

Speaker 4 (29:48):
I don't need your help and I don't need you
talking down to me, like.

Speaker 2 (29:55):
All right, well, this is Fox Sports Radio Countdown to Kickoff,
brought to you by bed m GM. Every time you
know we get into the thick of the conversation, we
keep having some technical difficulties and.

Speaker 3 (30:07):
The universe telling Brian that this is not a take
that he should be putting on national radio.

Speaker 2 (30:14):
I mean and again, yeah, truthfully, I know he's not
interested in help. And I'm saying it as a buddy
and more in jest, because Brian can believe whatever his
own opinion. He's a big boy, no doubt, he's a
big boy, and he can take it to the bank
if he wants. I don't know if you're gonna be
able to take a withdrawal with it, but you could
try to bring the slip to the window.

Speaker 3 (30:34):
The interest rates are going to be pretty high on
this one, I think.

Speaker 2 (30:39):
But uh, but but I digress. Hey, you know the
one thing I wanted to say about this, uh, this fight,
getting back to that for a moment before we transition,
because there's a there's a couple of college football playoff games,
Jared that I want your take on specifically because there's
huge line movement, especially when you look at the totals. Yeah,

(31:01):
this Anthony Joshua Jake Paul fight thing, I think it
actually is a dangerous precedent. I was talking with our
elite engineer Chris Purfett about this right before we got
on air. And I think when you finally see Jake
Paul feel ready enough to get in the ring with
a real boxer and feel what that feels like. Anthony,

(31:24):
Joshua looked like a killer playing with his food, and
Jake Paul looked like he was surviving six rounds before
he got knocked out. And I don't think Joshua ever
went for the kills, so to speak. I think he
boxed him. I think he boxed him respectfully, and I
don't think he was trying to hurt him, although you

(31:44):
did see it. Sometimes he would he would feel a
little pressure and and he would he would tattoo him
a little bit, almost like hey, buddy, if you want
to swing, I can really swing. And And it was
an interesting cat and mouse game that you're watching, because
it was very odd the entire time, who is the cat,
who is the mouse? And the reason why I say
it that's a dangerous precedent is because Jared, I mean,

(32:07):
you've watched a ton of boxing too, and I have
grown up enjoying this sport that is a sport where
people get killed in the ring. So if we start
allowing celebrities to sanction fights, and that's what Jake Paul is.
He's not a boxer. He's he's fought some retired fighters,
but he's not a boxer.

Speaker 6 (32:26):
He's a boxer and a promoter, like both things in one.
He's set up this fight with the Florida Commission. Yeah,
it questions questions on why the Florida Commission even approved
this fight too.

Speaker 2 (32:39):
It can be, yeah, Chris, thank you, Yeah, it can be.
It can be dangerous because if you start allowing some
of these things to take place, where's the line and
how slippery does it get and what are the potential ramifications?
I mean, people could get really hurt.

Speaker 3 (32:55):
Well, boxing has a problem because they need stuff like
this to get people excited. That's the problem. Like Rich,
you were in town for the Tyson fight last year.

Speaker 2 (33:05):
I remember we.

Speaker 3 (33:05):
Had a blast watching that on the sportsbook floor and
it was a lot of fun. But then the fight
started and it was like, this isn't really interesting. And tonight,
or I guess last night, based off the highlights I'm watching,
was kind of the opposite where Jake just had no
real chance in this fight and it was just a
matter of time before he was gonna get knocked out.
And that's a problem when you have these polarities in

(33:29):
boxing where the promotion is more important than the actual
fight itself. Like the build up is so cool and
it's fun, and you get all these weird celebrities and
all this like cool stuff, and then the fight starts
and it's like, yeah, this isn't really that exciting. I
think boxing in general just has a big problem, and
I think a big issue is and again I'm not

(33:49):
a boxing expert. I'm kind of gleaning this from people
that I trust, But the way that the fights are
sanctioned and all of the different like divisions and all
of the different titles that they have, like it's just
too complicated and convoluted, and we need to kind of
simplify things and try to get back to a spot
where we can promote some stars and they become stars

(34:11):
and then they're great fighters. So I don't I'm not
a boxing promoter. I don't know what the answer is.
But when this is the most you know, talked about
fight of the year, and last year it was the
Tyson Paul fight, and then the fights happen and it's
just like, what are we doing here? Like that I
think is the big issue with boxing.

Speaker 2 (34:27):
Yeah, yeah, I think that's a really really sharp look
at it too. I think it could be potentially dangerous
and to your point, I think when you are trying
to sell something and it almost feels like Lucy with
the football, Charlie Brown keeps taking these big swings and
falling on his back, and that's what it feels like.
The entertainment value is it's like, oh my gosh, we're

(34:47):
actually going to see a fight, and then boom, we
get fooled again. It can be kind of demoralizing if
you are an actual actual fight fan. Hey again, wanted
to get to that line movement we've got. We've got
totals in the Miami Texas A and M game, the
James Madison Oregon game that have shifted mightily. What's your

(35:10):
view on this, Jared, what's happened here?

Speaker 3 (35:13):
I think in general, you're just seeing a lot of
you know, sharp people come in and try to buy up,
and then usually what happens is after it hits a
certain point, you'll get them buying back down. Like, I
don't really see I haven't seen anything really sharp on
the totals. But again, I haven't looked at the totals
too heavily with these two games, but I haven't seen
anything really sharp on the totals. I did see some

(35:34):
sharp money on JAMU earlier this week, but it looks
like this morning that got up back to Oregon. So
you know, I think these are going to be pretty
The two later games are going to be pretty heavy spreads.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, that's uh, you know what, Let me
let me ask this question more widening the perspective to
talk about the games and talk about like what we're
going to see a game like Oregon JMU. You just
kind of pointed it out with the Anthony Joshua Jake
Paul fight. That sort of feels a little similar, like

(36:07):
what are we really doing there? I know it's a
college football playoff game and I should be excited for it,
and I'm buying the promotion I'm seeing some of the
early advertising for it. But do you think that game
goes any other way than Oregon absolutely taking James Madison
outside the woodshed and handling him.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
I want to dive deep into it, but I think
Chris might have might have an anxiety attack if we don't.

Speaker 2 (36:31):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, you know what we could get
back to that we absolutely get and you're right, yeah,
I'm destroying the clock for our poor executive engineer, Chris Burfett.
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(36:51):
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they don't win the first bet. That's bonus code countdown
in the bet MGM app. All right, it's countdown to kickoff.
Right here on Fox Sports Radio, I'm Rich Orenberger. Alongside

(37:15):
of me Jared Smith. We're efforting to get Brian no
back in the game. Here. He's gonna come on and
tell you how Alabama's a fraud. While I can tell
you one thing. He can't put a bet on Oklahoma
and the parlay platter. Now he can't because they lost
to Bama last night. That's coming up next parlay platter
with countdown to kickoff Fox Sports Radio. You're listening to

(37:38):
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff right here. And by
the way, every time you make a wager at bet MGM,
you can earn bet MGM Rewards points that can be
redeemed for things like bonus bets or converted to MGM
rewards points. They can be used towards dining shows in
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(38:00):
to follow bet MGM across all socials at bet MGM.
Parlay platter incoming. Also two Lane on the road to
face Ole Miss in the next CFP action. So Ole Miss.
They're going into this one without a head coach, well
technically they will have a head coach, but without Lane

(38:20):
Kiffin that that spells disaster for certain teams, but it
really does sort of feel like a warm up game
for them. I'm having a hard time really getting fired
up for this one, Jared, Is there any way you
can convince me that this is going to be a
ball game.

Speaker 3 (38:39):
I think the other one might be a little bit
more interesting to talk about. But let's platter this baby, huh.
I'm not gonna put ole miss or too Lane in
the parlay Plotter today. I think there is a good
underdog selection for you though, and I actually think it's
this first game. So I'm gonna go with the Miami
Hurricanes first leg of the parlay Plotter today. And I'm
not just gonna go with the Miami Hurricane.

Speaker 2 (39:00):
Go oh yeah, yeah yeah, Oh hang on, what do
we need to do an open first?

Speaker 3 (39:08):
Let's do this.

Speaker 1 (39:11):
Check this out, Arlay Ladder.

Speaker 3 (39:14):
All right, let's just let's just roll right through this thing.
Miami on the money line, guys plus one thirty. So
I think this is a really even the match game.
I honestly do. I think home field matters. I don't
know how much it matters. I don't think it's three
and a half points. That's kind of my point here.
I think it's like a one or two point home
field advantage for Texas A and M And I think
the Miami offensive line, now, man, I don't trust Maria

(39:36):
crystal ball as far as I can.

Speaker 2 (39:37):
Throw them, but I do think the Miami offensive line
is going to be very effective here. And I really
think Carson Beck, with the experience of the moment, hopefully
can get some protection and hopefully can find his receivers
down the field. Malaca Toni is the difference maker in
this game. So let's put Miami on the money line
plus one thirty first leg of the parlay latter.

Speaker 3 (39:55):
I'll give you two other FCS games today. There's two
really important CS semifinals today. We know the CFP, there's
three games on that side, but let's not sleep on
the FCS. One of the best stories of the FCS
playoffs so far has been Illinois State from normal Illinois
running through the FCS postseason. But I think they've got
a tough one today against Villanova, who is the better team.

(40:17):
But it's Villanova as the slight underog. So the market's
kind of telling me that Illinois State is the better team.
But when I think two teams are even the match
and I'm getting plus money, I'm gonna take Villanova. So
we'll put Villanova on the money line plus one oh five.

Speaker 2 (40:30):
And in the final game, Montana Montana State the brawl
in the wild awesome game.

Speaker 3 (40:34):
Montana State's got the better defense, they're the favorite. We'll
put them on the money line as well, minus two ten.
So we got Miami, Montana State and Villanova three team
moneyline parlay for the plotter today when we boost this sucker,
it's plus seven to forty five.

Speaker 2 (40:47):
Rich Nice coming up next. They're there, but do they
belong to be there? We'll get into it. It's Fox
Sports Radio Countdown to Kickoff. Welcome back. This is Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to kick Off, presented by bet MGM.
As you heard right there, we got Jared Smith alongside me.
Jared our lead betting analyst. My name Rich Orenberger. Former

(41:11):
NFL veteran of six years. Brian know is gonna be
joining us in just a few moments here. Apparently he's
trying to convince the playoff committee to allow Oklahoma back
because it was unfair that Alabama won. So he's got
a long drive ahead of him to the headquarters over there,
but we'll have him back on the show shortly. Here. Okay,

(41:32):
we've got a big one coming up tonight, and but
before that, I just want to tease ahead. We're gonna
be talking to Seamus McGee this hour. He's he's the
the team lead sports trading at bet MGM. Always fun
to have Seamus on. I'm sure he's gonna give us
some FCS action as well to take a look at.

(41:53):
And in the NFL, it was a far fall for
one of the teams who's really in contention to be
a Super Bowl champ. Was it fair though, We'll get
into that conversation. But jam you going to Oregon, head
into Eugene and to set this up, look, James Madison
University played one of the worst strength of schedules in

(42:13):
the country and they're in the postseason. James Madison played
nobody and they beat everybody by a million. Now Oregon,
on the other hand, Oregon had a tougher schedule. They
earned their way into the postseason. They had some injuries,
especially to their receiver core down the stretch of the season.

(42:34):
They fought tooth and nailed to get into this postseason.
So you know, they're not looking past JMU and I'm
sure ready to prove that they are something here in
this in this this playoff round. I don't really see
this going well for James Madison. But what what do
you think, Jared, If you're gonna convince me, if you can,

(42:55):
that this is gonna be any sort of a ballgame,
what would you say? Yeah, so, I I went back
this week and I watched the entire JMU offensive tape
against Louisville.

Speaker 3 (43:04):
Why Louisville, it's the only power for a team they
played all year. It's the only team that has any
semblance of dudes up front that are gonna challenge the
JMU offense because, as Rich mentioned, the rest of the
schedule was a hot knife through butter. For example, the
Troy team that just got blasted the other night, that

(43:26):
game kind of was close against Jamie. Like Troy had
a couple moments in that game. Now, I know JMU
didn't end up winning. They didn't cover this bread though.
And when I watched JMU, I noticed two things. One,
they're a very aggressive team. For example, first play of
the game, you're at Louisville, you're a two touchdown underdog.

(43:47):
They run double pass and it was open right, you
throw back to the receiver on a backwards pass, and
then the receiver tried to throw an arrow route deep
down the field to another receiver and it was open
and he overthrew it incomplete pass. They ended up going three.

Speaker 2 (44:00):
Now, so that to me is the vibe of the game, right,
Like JMU is not going to be afraid of the moment.
They are gonna come in and they are gonna empty
the tank. They're gonna empty the clip. They're probably gonna.

Speaker 3 (44:12):
Run a lot of trick plays, a lot of gadgets
and gizmos and tinker bells and all kinds of bells
and whistles and stuff. The problem is if that doesn't work,
their base stuff is not good enough to beat Oregon.
It's a lot of Reid option, it's a lot of RPO,
it's a lot of counter and draw and like very
basic running plays. Their offensive line is not very big.

Speaker 2 (44:33):
They don't have any huge alpha receivers on the outside
that are gonna go up like Alabama did last night.

Speaker 3 (44:39):
Just make plays down the field. They need the creativity,
they need those unique styles that that you know, those
gadget plays to work, and they're gonna have to take
some risk. They're gonna have to go for it on
fourth down.

Speaker 2 (44:53):
They did.

Speaker 3 (44:53):
They went for it on fourth It was a close
game at Louisville in the first half. They were driving
for worth than one. I think it was like right
around midfield. They went for it, didn't get it, So
I there, there's going to have to be some moments
in the game where JMU is sticking their neck on
the line, and if it goes their way, well, then
they can cover a three touchdown spread, right, if they

(45:15):
pick up those plays, if they figure out a way
to get a trick play and score a touchdown on
some kind of throwback or some kind of weird gadget.
But then, Rich, there's the other side of the coin, right,
there's a risk, there's a reward if they don't make
those plays, if they flip the coin. Right, you're at
the craps table and you hit the point, do you
press or do you pull your money back? Well, Bob
Chesney's gonna press, and if he goes seven out on

(45:37):
the next roll, well, then that's where Oregon can kind
of run away from them.

Speaker 2 (45:42):
Yeah, and I completely agree with that. I think I
think you are going to see bigger risks taken by
James Madison and Chesney, who obviously has borrowed a lot
of Signetti's script leftover from his era. JMU. I think
it's it's great. I think it's a it's a great
DNA code to have if you're a team like this,

(46:03):
because you need to be a gambler against power forwards.
You need to be a team that is willing to
fight over your weight class and fight a little dirty,
you know, pull out the exotics that you've been working
on at practice away from the light of day all
season while you've been trashing your conference and beating up
on non conference team. You've scheduled again against again, really

(46:25):
weak strength of schedule this year for JMU, and then
if you punch your ticket to the postseason, well, no
holds barred. Hey, let's let's eye gouch. You know what
I mean, let's throw let's throw somebody in an illegal
in illegal. You know I'm not I'm not saying literally
eye gouch. I'm saying empty the kitchen sink. In terms
of of of the playbook, whatever's the best, whatever's the most,

(46:51):
do it now, because there is no tomorrow if you
don't beat the Ducks now. On the other side of this,
we were talking about Oregon being a little trodden with
some injuries. Uh, They're going to have a host of
new coordinators entering this game, entering the postseason, and it's
it's going to be an interesting look for the Oregon

(47:14):
the Oregon Ducks, But it does in many ways feel
like a little bit of those early season non conference
warm up games for Oregon heading into the postseason as
opposed to an actual postseason game. So I think the
risk for Oregon really falls into this one sentence. You've
got to be up for this one. You've got to
be up for this one. You cannot look past these guys.

(47:36):
And so it is Dan Lanning's job to make sure
that nobody in that room is underrating the Dukes, that
everybody there is there for the same reason, which is, hey,
we win, we advance, we lose. We don't get it tomorrow.
We don't get a national championship trophy in our in
our in our case, in the lobby of our football facility.

(47:58):
And I know that seems ridiculous to say, because what
team wouldn't be up for a postseason game. I'm telling you,
psychology is weird. When you're on that playing field, psychology
is weird. And this team, James Madison, to their credit,
they can create chaos. If you watch their defense, undersized,
they're not going to even come close to the measurables

(48:20):
that you're going to see across the line from them.
On the Oregans offensive line. They're undersized, but they create chaos.
They're not going to stay in their gap. It's a
movement defense. They get a ton of tackles for loss,
they get a ton of pass breakups. Why, because they're
getting into the backfield, they're pressuring quarterbacks, they're forcing quarterbacks

(48:40):
to throw early, and they're throwing into coverage and so
they've really reached some havoc on a lot of teams defensively.
Will they be able to do it against Oregon that's
a huge question mark. Will they be able to sneak
by them for a couple of those big explosive plays
like you were laying out, Jared. If they do, it'll
be a better ballgame, that's for sure. But can you

(49:01):
do it for four quarters? That's the question.

Speaker 3 (49:04):
I don't know if they can. I actually think the
like to me, the way this game script plays out
is JAMU pulls out their tricks. A couple of them
are treats, and they hit, but then eventually the hammer,
you know, will hit the nail over the course of
four quarters. So I think JMU first half to me,
would be the better bet than the full game because

(49:26):
I do think over time that Oregon size will win out.
Let's get into the JAMU defense, because I do think
they've got some dudes Sire West and Xavier Holmes off
the edge of are playmakers. They are those are Those
are FBS high major caliber type playmakers that are probably
gonna hit the portal, are probably gonna, you know, be
in the mix to be an NFL player like those
are those are really good players off the edge. They've

(49:47):
got a middle linebacker their highest graded player actually per
Pro Football Focus, Trent Hendrick. And the linebacking level is
going to be huge for JMU in this game. Why
because Oregon loves to pull lineman counter and those second
level defenders have to be able to fit in the
run game. I think the one game Dante More struggled
this year it was the Indiana game where Oregon allowed

(50:08):
a thirty six percent pressure right in that game, by
far their worst mark of the year, and JMU is
pretty good at creating pressure. Again. I know the schedule
hasn't been great, but they slowed Louisville down for a
big part of that game. And Louisvill's got some dudes, right,
Miller Moss good quarterback, You got the Bell Khet on
the outside. Louisvill's got some dudes, and I thought JMU
held their own defensively in that game. The problem was

(50:31):
they kept trying to run these you know, weird kookie
counterplays and they just it just didn't work, Like they
just they shot themselves in the foot because they just
didn't have enough manpower to consistently stack plays like they
needed to outwit and out create the Louisville defense. And
over time, Louisville has more players and the athleticism is

(50:53):
just gonna win out. Oregon's a very balanced team, and
that's the issue I see. You can't just try to
take away the run because Dante More can beat you
in multiple different ways with his arm. You can't try
to just take away Dante More because Oregon's got three
great backs that all are really good in their own way,
Winnington being the lead there. So I think there's this
kind of push and pull when you're facing Oregon and

(51:15):
you're trying to slow them down because their offensive line
is thirty enough. They're not great, they're good. They're not
elite by any stretch, but they're a good offensive line.
But what makes Oregon dangerous is they can beat you
in multiple ways. They've got speed on the outside, they
can run quarterback, and they've got three really good backs.
So it's you don't really know what to take away

(51:35):
for Jmu's offense. Like Barnett the quarterback kind of won
the job by default. Sluca came over, right, remember Sluka
from UNLB last year. He came over. He knows Chesney
from the Holy Cross days. But Sluka just doesn't have
the ability to beat you with his arm. Barnett's a
little bit more of a dual threat, and he's been
hot down the stretch. I mean he's throwing it deep

(51:56):
down the field. He's a top fifteen a DOT, top
fifteen passing touchdowns, top fifteen Pro Football Focus grade, top
twenty turnof worthy play rate. So he's pushing the ball
down the field vertically, not turning it over a whole lot.
So I do like the numbers for Barnett, but again
it's it's been against a pretty soft schedule. So what's
gonna happen now on the road against a very good
Orgon defense? And when I say very good Orgon defense,

(52:17):
they love this front four Rich Alexander and Washington and Ujunga,
Lay and Tuodi Like they don't need to commit extra
bodies to the box in order to get pressure on you.
They're very comfortable rushing for dropping seven and it's gonna
make it really tough for a JMU offense that doesn't
have a lot of playmakers on the outside to find space.

Speaker 2 (52:37):
It is Countdowns Kickoff presented by bet MGM. I'm I'm
your host right now, Rich Hornberger. Six year NFL that
we got Jared Smith. You just heard his voice leave
betting analysts here and we welcome back now. Trying to
campaign and do a radio show at the same time
to keep Marcus Freeman the head coach of Notre Dame

(52:58):
and have no NFL teams chim out from under his nose.
He's doing God's work out there. It's Brian No joining
us back? Brian are is the connection secure? Yes? It's great. Hey.

Speaker 4 (53:09):
Register with betmgm to get instant access to the best
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(53:30):
all right. Coming up next, our guy Seamus McGee drops
on by gets you all set for the three playoff
games today some week sixteen NFL action. He'll have a
shame of special all that good stuff coming up. It
is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by BETMGM.
It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by
bet MGM. Register with BETMGM to get instant access to

(53:51):
the best variety of parlay selection features, no sweat and
boost tokens, live betting options.

Speaker 2 (53:55):
And much more.

Speaker 4 (53:56):
New players can receive up to fifteen hundred dollars back
in bonus bets with bonus cut would countdown if they
don't win their first bet, place your money, line parlay
bets and more. Today again, the bonus code is countdown,
bet MGM, make it legendary, all right. Let's do this
follow the money, real good money, all right. We welcome
in our good friend, Seamus McGee, team lead of Sports

(54:16):
Trading at bet MGM. Happy Saturday to you, Seamus.

Speaker 2 (54:21):
Man.

Speaker 4 (54:22):
We got three college football playoff games today, two huge underdogs.
Is there a biggest need on the board of these
three games for you guys at BETMGM.

Speaker 7 (54:31):
Today, Hey guys, great to be back. We had a
couple of large wagers on Miami just yesterday, so really
forces our hand. And the need is going to be
Texas A and M to cover three and a half
time to four with a lot of people buying an
extra half point there. So really the whole day is

(54:53):
probably going to come down to Texas A and M covering.
We're going to end up needing these big dogs to cover.
I feel like we're gonna seeing a lot of teasers
come in on Oregon and Ole mess But right now,
the in terms of what the highest handle is going
to be, and you know the large waves we've taken
right now, A and M is the biggest need of

(55:13):
the book so far.

Speaker 3 (55:14):
See that's interesting to me, Seamus, because when I look
at bet MGM and actually, as I say that, you
guys are just moving now. So you guys were at
three and a half on A and M and Miami
for pretty much the whole week. In fact, I did
a video yesterday for Fox that given out Miami plus
three and a half, and I was a little bit
surprised that you hadn't moved on to the three yet

(55:36):
because of what I believed there to be some pretty
solid money coming in on Miami. In fact, I even
see one of the other shops at two and a
half on this game, which I think is a little
bit low, but it like walk through the audience on
that dynamic where you have the game kind of rotating
around a key number of three, but a lot of
the markets at three. You guys are at three and
a half, and what does it take for you to

(55:56):
get off of that key number and to go down to.

Speaker 7 (55:58):
Three done to the action that we take. You know,
we have customers that we profile as you know, if
they come in on a number, that's one where we're
definitely going to have to move here. So you obviously
have a look at the industry and what the market
has out there these high profile games. Most of the time,
you know, you want to stay at least close to

(56:19):
that number, but if your sharp clients aren't really telling
you anything, you don't really move. But we've taken enough
finally to move off that three and a half down
to a flat three.

Speaker 2 (56:30):
Today, Seamus, we have obviously a major coaching change with
Ole Miss. We have a couple of different coaching changes
in the staff with Oregon. Do you do you feel
like those are differences leading up to the game that
will I don't know, impact the number or or even

(56:52):
the bets that you're going to see or the action
that you're going to take, or has that all been
settled and you're not expecting anything made leading up to kickoff?

Speaker 7 (57:02):
Well, yeah, we've had these lines up for close to
a week now, so the numbers baked in. I think
obviously Lane Giffen has some sort of value the power
rating that you're probably seeing baked into that line. But
then you have guys like Bio some Rall who he's
still coaching the game, Chesse, he's still coaching for JMU today.
Oregon obviously they lose some staff members, But the market's

(57:25):
telling you how much these coaches are valuated right now.
I think by the way it stands, and you've seen
that Oregon line did go, it was open twenty one
and a half and it has gone under that number
of twenty one, So there is some sharp money coming
in on JAMU at plus twenty one and a half.
Will see how if it moves any further. I would
be a little surprised if it does move anymore.

Speaker 4 (57:46):
Today though, Seamus, I see you guys have moved Indiana
now up to a seven and a half point favorite.
It's almost as if people realize that Alabama's fools, gold
and fraudulent. Where do you think the line goes by
kick time? And what do you expect to happen in
that game when it rolls around here?

Speaker 7 (58:05):
I think seven and a half is probably right. I
had this personally line at seven, the open six and
a half everywhere, but definitely some sharp money moving us
through that number of seven up to seven and a half.
I think I'd be a little surprised if this goes
north of seven and a half. But it's the college
football playoff. You know, there's a whole you know, another
week and a half until that game kicks off, so
anything could happen.

Speaker 3 (58:27):
Seamus, is there anything with this Oregon JAMU game that
interests you?

Speaker 2 (58:30):
I mean, it feels kind of feels kind of one way,
but maybe Jmu's got a rabbit in their hat the
first half, Like that was the way I was leaning.
Is maybe JAMU first half.

Speaker 3 (58:39):
I just don't know if they have the dudes to
hang four quarters with this Ducks.

Speaker 7 (58:42):
Team, great minds, Jared, This is I was gonna wait
to give this out to the end of the end
of my spot, but jmu first half is what I
like the most. I think they got a lot of
athletes that people are kind of sleeping on. But I'm
with you there, I just don't see it over the
course of four quarters. Maybe that you cover twenty one
and a half twenty and a half, but I feel
a lot more comfortable taking the points on the first

(59:05):
half spread with JMU.

Speaker 2 (59:07):
Me too. You know, I haven't looked at Seamus, I
haven't looked at the futures for the National Championship in
a little bit here, But what what kind of parody
are we seeing?

Speaker 3 (59:19):
Is this?

Speaker 2 (59:19):
Does this feel like a little bit more of an
even year than years past, because it definitely felt like
ultimately we were heading towards known quantities in the very
recent past, and this, this National Championship race feels a
little bit more wide open.

Speaker 7 (59:36):
The odds would dictate that, you know, Ohio State is
still the favorite at plus two twenty five with US
with Indiana closely behind it plus three hundred, and then
there's still two more teams that are single digit ods
or three more teams sorry that are single digit ods. Personally,
I still think this is a two horse race. I
think it's going to be Indiana Ohio State in a rematch.

(59:57):
That's just how I view the two teams compared to
the rest of the field. But the odds to dictate.
Maybe we do see, you know, maybe maybe an upset
here or there going into the National Championship game.

Speaker 4 (01:00:07):
Okay, seame, it's it's same as shame of special time.
I don't know if you know you gave away the
goods that you have a like a backup shame of
special I don't know.

Speaker 7 (01:00:14):
Cs semis, come on, I got I mean, we got
a loaded day of sports here. We have two NFL games,
we have the World Darts Championships, so now we have
the Volleyball National Championship on tomorrow. We have the fcs semis.
I mean, I'll rattle a few up. I like the
under fifty three and a half in Montana, Montana State here.

(01:00:35):
I think it's gonna be a low yeah, in a
rivalry semi final game in cold weather up there. I
like Riccardo Patreco in the semi in the World Darts
championships going on that that's just happened in ten minutes.
If you've never been on darts, take me later. It
is the best sports to bet on that you haven't
been on yet.

Speaker 4 (01:00:54):
I love when they're one eighty, you know, it's great.
It's I don't know how you get three triple twenties
in a row. They made it look so easy. That's insanity.

Speaker 7 (01:01:05):
But yeah, that's all I got today. And then JMU
first half I think would be my favorite play on
the board for the college playoffs today.

Speaker 3 (01:01:14):
I like it.

Speaker 4 (01:01:14):
All right, Well, good stuff Seamus, as always, Bud, enjoy
the day and we'll catch you soon.

Speaker 7 (01:01:20):
Thanks guys enjoying the games, have a good one.

Speaker 2 (01:01:22):
Yeah, same to you.

Speaker 4 (01:01:22):
There is Seamus McGee, team lead of sports Trading at BETMGM.
Throughout the entire football season, BETMGM will offer all different
types of no sweat tokens and odds boost tokens. Be
on the lookout for no sweat same game parlay tokens,
parlay boost tokens, and so much more. All Right, you know,
we've been hot and heavy on college football and there's

(01:01:42):
plenty more to come with three playoff games today.

Speaker 2 (01:01:45):
But for a minute.

Speaker 4 (01:01:46):
I just had to say, it's crazy what happened in
the Thursday night game in the NFL. What an insane
game with the Seahawks coming back down by sixteen and
somehow rally they get a hunt return for a touchdown.
They score another touchdown, they get a pair of two
point conversions.

Speaker 2 (01:02:05):
The latter one was like if that's.

Speaker 4 (01:02:08):
In a movie, you walk out of the movie and
you're like, this is the dumbest movie ever.

Speaker 2 (01:02:12):
I bounces off a Rams helmet like it goes in
the end zone.

Speaker 4 (01:02:16):
Charbonay just picks it up for the heck of it,
and they're like, it's two points. I know it goes
to overtime. You know, Puka Nakua scores two hundred and
twenty five yards receiving. It was unbelievable. The Seahawks score
a touchdown, they go for two and get it. Unbelievable game.
But look, man, I know we've locked horns on this,

(01:02:36):
but I'm more dug on this, dug in on this
than ever before. It is a football crime that the
Rams have fallen somehow from the one seed to a
five seed as we speak right now. They go from
not only being on the road in the first week
of the of the playoffs, they would be on the road,
most likely for three games. So they went from the

(01:02:59):
one one seed two home games to get to the
super Bowl to the five seed three road games to
get to the super Bowl. I can't hate the playoff
structure of the NFL more than I do. It makes
absolutely no sense.

Speaker 2 (01:03:14):
Oh no, I completely disagree, because I think there's magic
in the fact that with only thirty two teams, usually
you can make an argument, like a solid argument, for
about seven of them that have a legitimate shot. Yeah,
seven to eight that have a legitimate shot to win

(01:03:36):
a Super Bowl. You know, it's weirdly shaped football. It
bounces all sorts of directions and we see it all
the time. I mean, take it to the bank. We
got a double digit favorite hosting on Thursday night after
a real slugfest for the visiting dog, and somehow the
visiting dog pulls it out Like it's the NFL. All

(01:03:58):
these teams are good. It's a weird league in that
there's so much parody, whereas usually if you're watching the NBA,
if you're watching Major League Baseball, and that can be
a little chaotic, but certainly the NBA, it feels like
some outcomes you can really predetermine. With the NFL you can't.
And so giving a team a shot to potentially host

(01:04:21):
a better team during the postseason I think creates more drama.
Now do I think it's fair? No? No, I don't,
And I think that's where a lot of people, like you, Brian,
like the sticking point is fairness, Like, is this really
the best way to do this? It may not be,
but it definitely makes for some seriously compelling storylines down

(01:04:43):
the stretch of a season because you can have a
team like, for example, the New York Giants team who
ended up beating my Patriots team that I was on
in twenty eleven, the twenty eleven season, the twenty twelve
Super Bowl out in Indianapolis, where they basically snuck into
the postseason and they ran the table. You know, it

(01:05:05):
just makes room for those storylines. And well, I absolutely
still to this day, I'm disgusted that we lost that
Super Bowl and I wish we didn't. It makes for
compelling television, and after all, that's what the NFL is.
They are trying to make the best television product on
the planet, and they've really succeeded that in the United States.

Speaker 3 (01:05:25):
Yeah, I'm kind of in the middle here, Like I
do think there's a reason for the team's get like
the point about the playoffs and the way that it's structured,
Like I think you have to give some reward to
winning your division. I don't think you should get reward
for the whole postseason. I think they should recede after
the first round. To me, that's the compromise because I

(01:05:47):
do think you should get some reward for winning your division.
And it is very random every year which is the
good division? Last year it was the North NFC North,
this year it's the West. Like it this next year
could be a different division. So I don't think it's
always like if you win your division, should get no reward.
Like I think there should be some reward for winning
your division. I think the compromises you get one home

(01:06:07):
game in the playoff, and then we receed after the
next round, and then we receed after the next round,
and then that's how the home team is determined going forward.
The other argument is home field isn't worth as much
as it was twenty years ago. It's just not like
that's what the data says. So it's not as big
of a deal as it maybe it was twenty years ago.
It's a little bit less. I still think it is
important to get a home game, no doubt. I'd rather

(01:06:29):
have the home game than not. But I also think
you should get some reward for winning your division. I
do think that, to me is also fair.

Speaker 4 (01:06:37):
I think the reward for winning your division is you're
guaranteed a playoff spot, you know, Like I don't think
you get a home game on top of that, Like
the winner of the NFC South, they probably wouldn't be
a playoff team, you know, except for winning their division.
So that's the cherry that you gets, Like, hey, you
won your division, You're a playoff team, no questions asked.

(01:06:57):
But you don't get a home game on top of that.
World is Tampa Bay is right now leading the NFC South.
We'll see if they win it or not. But in
no world is Tampa's season better than the Rams season.

Speaker 2 (01:07:10):
No.

Speaker 4 (01:07:11):
And I know Tampa is leading their division right now.
Let's say they go on to win their division. Even
if they win their division and the Rams are a
wild card team, in no world is Tampa season better than.

Speaker 2 (01:07:21):
The re Not even close.

Speaker 4 (01:07:23):
No, I agree with that, like, it makes no sense
to act as if it is. I go back to
college football, because college had a similar system to what
the NFL currently has, where last year they're like, hey,
if you win your conference, then you get a bye.
Basically we're seeding the the top four conference winners and

(01:07:43):
you get a bye. It took them one year to
be like, this is stupid. We're changing all of that
because they had Arizona State and Boise State get buys
last year and they've completely changed it. Like right now,
Tampa getting a bye. That's like Arizona State a Boise
State last year getting a first round by and yet
the NFL they still stick with this. It makes absolutely

(01:08:06):
no sense. And yeah, I know home field doesn't mean
as much as it once did. We're talking about half
a point or a point.

Speaker 2 (01:08:13):
Yeah, there is a.

Speaker 4 (01:08:14):
Gigantic, like Grand Canyon size difference between the Rams hosting
two playoff games and being on the road for three
playoff games. That should not be the system that we have.

Speaker 2 (01:08:26):
It's so dumb. I agree that it is not fair.
I can't. I can't defend that it's dumb because it works,
and the reason why it works is because there's so
much parody in the NFL, and because their ratings and
their viewership isn't harmed by this playoff system. In fact,
you can make the argument that it helps their viewings

(01:08:47):
and their ratings because you can make that Tampa Bay
fan base, or you know, in the case that I
was making from many years ago, that New York fan
base for the Giants who were NFC East winners, sneaking
into the postseason, finding their way through a gauntlet to
winning a Super Bowl. It creates these compelling storylines, and

(01:09:10):
it includes fan bases that otherwise would not be invested
in the postseason. And sometimes those fan bases come from
major markets. Now is it fair? Now, that's where we
could get into the debate where or I should say,
where we can get to the side of the fence
where I'll completely agree with you. In no world is
Tampa Bay a better team or more deserving than the

(01:09:34):
Rams based on record and achievement this season. They don't
hold a candle to what the Los Angeles Rams are
or what they've done. But just in terms of is
the mousetrap working, like, are people interested in seeing the
results of these divisional battles benefiting for the most part. Yeah,
say they are. And the reason why college football changed

(01:09:57):
is because there isn't as much parody. ASU and Boise
State last year, in no way, shape or form deserved
to get a bye because they weren't even in the conversation,
to be good enough to hang with the rest of
the playoff field. They just weren't. I mean, now, Ace,
you put up a hell of a fight, there's no
question about that. But I mean they weren't winning a

(01:10:17):
national championship, whereas you know, I had to say it.
If it comes together late for Tampa Bay, and again
we've seen this happen many times. Can they win a
Super Bowl? I'm not ruling them out completely. I mean,
is it likely? No, obviously not. Would it be fair
also no, and that's where I agree with you. But
does it work? Yeah? Yeah, I mean unfortunately for anybody

(01:10:41):
who hates this system, it really does work. Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:10:45):
I agree that it's not fair. I mean, again, there's
no debate about the RAM season compared to the Bucks season.
I just think we're on a cruise ship. It's just
really hard to turn and it's just you're not gonna
get those rules changed anytime soon.

Speaker 2 (01:11:00):
So we can you know, be.

Speaker 3 (01:11:01):
Upset about it, or we can just kind of make
money off of it, right, Like, the Rams are going
to be a road favorite at Tampa if if that
is the game, if we do get four or five
and it's Rams at Tampa, you'll get the Rams as
a road favorite in that game, and then you'll get
the chance to say, hey, listen, they're much better than Tampa,
and that's why they're a road favorite. So I'm gonna
bet the Rams. That's why the points spread is the

(01:11:23):
great equalizer. I don't know if that rule will ever
be changed because of just how stubborn the NFL is,
and also you get these division you know, championship banners
that get raised, and it's like a whole thing. I
do think you should get something for winning your division.
I see Brian's point about you're in the playoffs and
that matters, but also how often is there that big

(01:11:45):
of a gap? Like I feel like for the most part,
they're within a game or two of each other, and
it's like, yeah, it's just you know, they're they're really close,
but you give the division win and you get that
one home game. If I could change the rule, I
would reced after the first round, and I know that's
been talked about. We just haven't gotten there.

Speaker 4 (01:12:03):
Yeah, it's happened before or many times where we're talking
like a four win difference, you know where. The first
thing that comes to my mind is the Saints, Right,
the Saints on the road at Seattle. I think Seattle
had a losing record at the time, and that was
the beast Quake run. Right, that's when Marshawn Lynch had
that insane run, like it's registering on the Richter scale

(01:12:24):
there in Seattle, and the Seahawks beat the Saints, which
I again like I'm not like, I don't know how
to say this, where people just they immediately put up
their defenses, you know where It's like, I'm not trying
to shed tears for the Saints. It's like, win the game,
find a way to beat a team with a losing record.

(01:12:44):
But I will tell you that game had no business
being played in Seattle when the Saints have four more wins.
And you know as well as I do, if that
game is in New Orleans with Drew Brees and who'd
ad at that time, there's no way a losing record
Seattle team is going in there and winning that game
no chance, know how.

Speaker 2 (01:13:03):
And that's what I think is broken about this.

Speaker 4 (01:13:05):
But I mean, if you just do the math, it's
it's surprising to me that, you know, like last year
the Lions the Vikings were on the short end of
the stick, right, they didn't win their Week eighteen game
against the Lions, and they dropped to a five seed,
and they were on the road. It turned out to
be a neutral site game because of the fires in
Los Angeles, so but in my mind, that game should

(01:13:28):
have been in Minneapolis. I'm just surprised that the teams
that end up as a five seed that have a
much better record than the four seed, I'm surprised over
the course of time there isn't more momentum and more
of a ground swell to like, let's change this.

Speaker 2 (01:13:43):
This is dumb.

Speaker 4 (01:13:44):
So if you just do the math each year, you know,
you're looking at Tampa, they're like, this rule is cool
with us. Like the winner of the AFC North Baltimore
of the Steelers, They're like, this rule is fine for us, Right,
So I guess more teams are benefiting from it on
a yearly basis, and that's why it's not gonna change.

Speaker 2 (01:14:01):
I think it's so dumb, but it's not changing it.
It isn't gonna change. And I and I again, your
point is one hundred percent defensible, and a lot of
people agree that it is far too rewarding of a
system for underwhelming division winners than for a team that actually,
you know, just because they play in a more competitive division,

(01:14:24):
they're going to be penalized, like just because you share
a division with the forty nine ers and the Seahawks,
like the Rams should be punished somehow. It's like, no, no,
it's a very good football team, so there may be
a happy medium struck at some point. But you know,
just to refute one point you made, you know, could
Seattle win in New Orleans in a packed Superdome with

(01:14:47):
Drew Brees and that team, Well, the reality is yeah,
they could because they beat him in Seattle, and if
you can beat them at home, you can beat him
on the road. Is it harder though? That answer is
also yes, And that's where the rub is that I
do believe, especially in the postseason with a fired up
fan base, it is a lot harder to win on

(01:15:08):
the road in the postseason than it is to win
at home and so giving such an advantage to division
winners really does feel like you're not seeding this thing correctly.
But again going back to where the NFL will defend
itself tooth and nail, they've got the best mouse trap.

(01:15:30):
They're catching all the mice. Their viewership has never been
more powerful. So it's kind of one of those things
where if it ain't broke, don't fix it, and it
isn't broken.

Speaker 4 (01:15:39):
You know what's crazy, I'll say super fast is I'm
just looking at the standings in the AFC, and right now,
the Steelers they're the four seed, right eight and six,
and below them are the Chargers at ten and four
and the Bills at ten and four. You know what's
funny about that is typically in the NFL, the ultimate
tie breaker is head to head. Yeah, but the Chargers
crushed the steel on Sunday Night Football by fifteen points.

(01:16:03):
The Bills crushed the Steelers twenty six to seven. They
both have head to head wins. But if it just
like works out where it's Steelers four and either of
those teams Chargers Bills five, it's like, well, the Steelers
won their crappy division, so they get the higher seed,
they get the home game. Meanwhile, you crushed them head

(01:16:24):
to head. You didn't win a better division, so you're
on the road. That makes absolutely zero sense, but that's
the system that we have. I don't get it at all.
I hate it, but I do love the NFL. You know,
so we let some stuff slide. I guess we have
Rich Hornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.
I'm Brian no Hey. Be sure to check out the

(01:16:44):
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(01:17:06):
countdown in the bet MGM app. All right, coming up next,
prop it up the prop betting market. We uh, we
have a lot of things circled. We'll compare notes right
around the corner. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown to
Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox Sports Radios Countdown
to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM. And it is time

(01:17:26):
for the tire Rack play of the day.

Speaker 8 (01:17:28):
And even if he does run the best shot at
the moment, knows that much is gonna happen.

Speaker 2 (01:17:33):
And it almost there's a left.

Speaker 8 (01:17:38):
Downs and we have taken a little bit bit longer
than everyone expected.

Speaker 7 (01:17:53):
But a j gets up.

Speaker 3 (01:17:55):
Ko it round to six.

Speaker 4 (01:17:59):
There you go, credit to Netflix, says Anthony. Joshua takes
down Jake Paul selfishly, I wanted the English accent to
call the.

Speaker 3 (01:18:08):
You know, buckdown.

Speaker 4 (01:18:09):
I was like, bloody hell down, goes Paul.

Speaker 2 (01:18:12):
I don't know. That's what I hear in my head.

Speaker 4 (01:18:14):
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Speaker 1 (01:18:33):
Prop it up player plays all.

Speaker 4 (01:18:36):
Right, prop bet scalore Jared. We start with you Nobama today,
So you're gonna have to hump somebody else's lag.

Speaker 2 (01:18:42):
Who do you like? Yeah, thanks for that.

Speaker 3 (01:18:45):
I'm gonna go Gerard Pringle Junior over thirty nine and
a half rushing yards. This is not Mark Fletcher, right,
there's two backs on Miami. You don't know much about
Pringle because he's kind of come on strong over the
last month. He's a freshman, and I think this Miami
team has continued to show that they can run the
ball effectively. So I think Pringle, not Fletcher, is going
to be the spark in the mini backfield today. So

(01:19:06):
give me Pringle, but you can't eat just one over
thirty nine and a half rush yeards.

Speaker 2 (01:19:11):
Hey give me Jalen Hurts over one and a half
touchdown passes in this game against the Commanders. Later on
switching speeds to the NFL here because we were just
talking about it. Look, I don't think the Eagles are
a great team, but I do think that they are
competent team, and I think they're starting to find their stride.

(01:19:32):
Jalen Hurts is going to be, obviously the engine that
drives this team into the postseason. If they're planning on
having any postseason success, they need to get him right,
and that's first and foremost, So I think that's going
to be the effort today against a struggling Commanders team.
So yeah, give me, give me Jalen Hurts over one
and a half passing touchdowns today, all.

Speaker 4 (01:19:54):
Right, Yeah, that's funny. I had Pringle circled as well.
That's still random. But he's up to forty one and
ans half and he's averaging six point two yards per fairy.
You know, he's giving them some juice. So I think
he's gonna be their main guy today. I like over
forty one and a half. I'll switch over to the NFL,
so we're not duplicating our BIX here, juer, I'm gonna

(01:20:15):
go with man. I still think this Bears rushing attack
is really good and the Packers rush defense been a
little bit leaky. But I'm not a believer in the
Bears defense. They live on takeaways. I think I think
Jordan Love's gonna have a good game. Give me over
two twenty nine and a half passing yards for Jay Love.

Speaker 2 (01:20:33):
Oh what is going on?

Speaker 4 (01:20:34):
Happy Saturday to you as we get you set for
three college football playoff games two NFL games. Today, we
got a lot of ball to get to also a
little you know, dip our big toe in the Sunday
Week sixteen NFL waters a little bit later this hour.
Also Miami against Texas A and M. We'll get to
that here in about I would say, fifteen minutes. Bet

(01:20:56):
MGM players will receive college football odds boots tokens and
college football parlay boost tokens throughout the season to use
on college football bets score extra winnings if your bet
with the token applied wins, check it out in the
bet MGM app All right, we will get to that Miami,
Texas A and M game, like I said, in about
fifteen minutes. But we got NFL on the docket here.

(01:21:17):
And how about this, This is most likely for the
NFC North. We've got Packers at the Bears. Packers at
nine to four and one, Bears at ten and four.
The Bears at home have a shot they win this game,
the most likely win the North. Like the odds jump up,
like I forget what they are. But somewhere in the
neighborhood of if the Bears win this game, they have

(01:21:39):
like an eighty seven percent chance to win the North,
and they have like a thirteen percent chance if they lose.

Speaker 2 (01:21:45):
Or something crazy like that.

Speaker 4 (01:21:47):
And this isn't like the ESPN Playoff Predictor, where they're like, no,
the name has an eighty five percent chance to make
it here on selection Sunday. And it's like, I don't
know how you come up with that. It's twelve random
people in the in a room, you read their minds.
That's the dumbest thing ever the playoff predictor. But we
look at Packers Bears. Bears now favored by a point

(01:22:07):
total is forty five and a half. The injury woes
man on both sides. How about Micah Parsons going down
torn acl If you look at the Bears, they don't
have Roma Dune, say, they don't have Luther Burden, both
two wide receivers. That's a lot of loss right there
for the Bears offense. So to me, the first part
of this is how effective is that Bears running game?

(01:22:30):
Because they've there have been games where they've been lights out.
The Packers rush defense been a little bit leaky. So
how well do the Bears run it? How well do
the Packers prevent the Bears from running it? I think
that's the first part of this whole handicap in my
mind at least, Yeah.

Speaker 2 (01:22:48):
I completely agree. I think also Packers being without Micah
Parsons most importantly, but also they're missing a safety Evan
Williams out of the lineup. They're going to struggle up
front a little bit and on the back end with
those two missing key pieces, it's gonna be it's gonna

(01:23:08):
be an interesting game because these teams faced each other
just a couple of weeks ago, and you think about
who their head coaches are and what their makeup is.
The Packers obviously led by their offense. Matt Lafleur an
offensive minded coach, a genius if you will, And same
with Ben Johnson with the Chicago Bears, very much so
led by their offense, although they have a ballhawking defense

(01:23:31):
who's made their bones with takeaways. If that shrinks, if
those numbers shrink for the Bears, they're in trouble because
they are a leaky defense. They just it's kind of
feast their famine with them and they get their hands
on a lot of footballs, and so credit to them
for doing that. You know, you got to give credit
for defense for takeaways, but but it is it can

(01:23:53):
be feast or famine for the Bears. Now, I do
agree with you. I think the run game that the
Bears are able to stab is going to be a
big part of this. But I also think whichever team
comes out with the best adjustments leftover from the last
game is going to be obviously the team with the
greatest level of success in division. The fact that you

(01:24:16):
have to face these teams twice a season, it can
be a benefit to you or it can be a
huge detraction. And so I'm very curious to see what
the first quarter looks like. We're gonna We're gonna know
which team prepared for the right plan very early in
this game.

Speaker 3 (01:24:32):
Yeah, I mean these teams played very recently, and you know,
the Packers won.

Speaker 2 (01:24:37):
I think that the the line pushed. I think they
were like right around a seven point favorite. He might
have gotten the six and a half and you covered,
or if you you know, took six and a half
with Chicago, you were on the wrong side of the hook.

Speaker 3 (01:24:46):
But the game basically landed right on the number. The
total went over forty four, and now we're at forty five.
So flash forward, was it two weeks and the total's
gone up a little bit? I don't really think a
whole lot's changed in two weeks. Oh wait, it has because.

Speaker 2 (01:25:01):
Michael Parson is out for the Earth.

Speaker 3 (01:25:02):
Yeah, and Christian Watson's also questionable, and Zach Tom's also questionable.
So yeah, a lot's changed in two weeks. And I
think that to me is where if the Packers defense
can't get pressure, it's gonna be a lot easier on
Caleb Williams. Now, we've talked a lot about Caleb Williams
throughout the course of the year and his inaccuracies, right
completion rate over expected, one of those analytics we like

(01:25:25):
to look at a lot. He's a bottom five quarterback
in that regard, and that's been the knock on him,
like can't play in structure and this and that.

Speaker 2 (01:25:32):
And my pushback to that is.

Speaker 3 (01:25:35):
I think it's kind of a fagazy narrative because I
think the way in the style that Chicago plays offense,
Ben Johnson likes to hunt explosives, Well, if you hunt explosives,
you've got to give a little somewhere else. And I
think Caleb sometimes makes the easy throws look difficult and
that's why his completion rate over expected is so low.
But he also makes a lot of the difficult throws

(01:25:55):
look easy, and I think if you ask Ben Johnson,
he's okay with that trade off, like it's a reward.
If you want to hunt explosives, you're gonna you're not
gonna be accurate with all of them because it's a
they're tougher throws. So I actually think this Bears offense
is where it's supposed to be, even though Caleb's numbers
sometimes look a little bit inconsistent. And you get the

(01:26:16):
running game going and then you hunt those explosive off
play action and you might not complete all the passes,
but you're stretching the defense and you're threatening the defense,
and I think that puts a lot of stress, especially
on a defense like green Bay that's banged up right
now in a short week. So I kind of lean
Chicago here, but something about green Bay and Jordan Love
going into Chicago, and I know it's not Aaron Rodgers,

(01:26:38):
but there's there's a there's a certain level of mental
anguish that comes with this Bears team facing the Packers.
So we'll see if they can finally get over that hump.
But I do push back a lot on the criticism
that Caleb's gotten this year, Brian, because I do think
that is just the style of offense Ben Johnson prefers
to play now.

Speaker 4 (01:26:55):
I like how you put it makes a lot of sense.
It's weird, right, Like Caleb Williams. If you're a basketball player,
he'd be hitting Steph Curry threes high degree of difficulty
and you're like wow, and then he misses a four
foot bunny in the lane and you're like, how how
does that happen? How can you make those throws and
miss those throws? Like, I don't get it with Caleb,
but you're right, like he's made some special plays. He's

(01:27:18):
just got to do a better job with the layups,
with the easy ones because he misses a lot of
easy throws. But I hear you like, you'd probably take
that trade off as of right now, you're two and
he's just hoping you tighten the screws and make the
easier plays, because man, sometimes those easy plays that are
missed will come back to bite you. They happen in
the worst possible time. It's third and three, the guys

(01:27:40):
wide open. Just get it to him, and he's like,
I'm sorry, I hit the guy in the fifth row.

Speaker 2 (01:27:44):
My bad, Like, what how does that happen?

Speaker 4 (01:27:47):
You just you basically did like a Kareem skyhook down
the field and somehow DeAndre Swift out of the backfield.
How did you make that throw and then miss that?

Speaker 2 (01:27:56):
It's crazy.

Speaker 4 (01:27:57):
But the other thing, though, is, listen, we talk about
the turnover battle all the time in football, and it
kind of turns into white noise where it's just so obvious.

Speaker 2 (01:28:07):
Right, you're stating the.

Speaker 4 (01:28:08):
Obvious, Where, hey, the turnover battle is gonna be a
big deal in this game, right, Like, I don't want
to do that, but it's so important. Against the Bears,
their defense lives on takeaways. That's what fuels them because
otherwise they give up a lot of yards. They give
up the eighteenth most passing yards and they're twenty third
in rush defense. That's just way too low. If you

(01:28:30):
look at the Packers, they're top ten in both. They're
eighth against the pass, they're eighth against the rush. But
what's interesting about these two teams in terms of takeaways.
The Bears are number one in the NFL. They forced
thirty takeaways. They take the ball away more than anybody
else does. The Packers they're tied for twenty fifth in takeaways.
They just don't generate a lot of takeaways with their defense,

(01:28:53):
So that is so important for the Packers. Just protect
the football and eventually you're gonna make some plays against
a leaky defense that gives up a lot of yards.
Just don't turn it over to them and you should
be fine in this game.

Speaker 2 (01:29:06):
Yeah. Yeah, it really is incumbent upon Green Bay to
be careful with the football. I mean, and there's there's
a lot of different ways to do that. You can
do it obviously by wrapping things that practice. Hey, listen,
every ball carrier, you gotta cover the points of the football.
You got to close the gate, you gotta cover up

(01:29:27):
when you're getting tackled. They're going to try to force
the football out of your hands when right before you
hit the ground. So do not take this for granted.
It's super important coaching point. Hey, you know, when we're
throwing the football, here's the deal, Like we're we're not
going for the big play, We're going for the open play.
Because these guys are waiting for us to make the mistake.

(01:29:48):
They're going to flip the field on us. They're going
to to try to change the motion in the in
the stadium, and turnovers are great for that. They are
bell weathers for success because they can really flip emotions
in the building, not just on the field, but in
the building too. So that has another aspect of it,

(01:30:10):
and then another way. I mean, really and honestly, it's
about everybody just doing their job. You know, you pointed
something out that I think, you know, talking about the
Chicago offense and focusing on Caleb Williams for a second.
You know, your job as a quarterback is to get
is to throw the football to get things organized, certainly,
and I don't want to like minimize it because obviously

(01:30:31):
it's the most important position in all of sports. But
your job is to throw the football. And when you're
expected to throw a three yard or even say fifteen
yard swing pass, you know, either a yard behind air
yard in front of the line of scrimmage, you better
be able to connect right. And so the coaching point
to love heading into this game against the Chicago Bears defense,

(01:30:56):
which is prone to turning the ball over, you got
to make sure that you can connect on those passes.
It's the little things, you know. You throw a ball
too high in traffic, it bounces off. If you're running
back or receivers hands, it's the tip drill. Chicago comes
up with a cheap one. All of a sudden, they're driving.
You know, you're careless with the football in the grasp
of the defenders. You get one tugged out of your hands.

(01:31:19):
All of a sudden, balls on the ground recovery Chicago.
So yeah, it's it's not just a cheap talking point,
it is everything. Possession of the football is everything in
the NFL. These guys are too good. Every team, every
single one of the thirty two teams playing, but especially
teams with a real playoff chance like the Bears, like

(01:31:42):
like the Packers. Green Bay's got to protect the football
against this Bears defense or it'll be a long, hard day.

Speaker 3 (01:31:48):
Yeah. I think if you ask most most professional gamblers,
which I'm not one, by the way, but if you
ask most of them, they would tell you they want
to fade the team that is leading the league in
turnover margin in the playoffs. It's this is not a
sustainable model if that is your recipe. To be fair, though,
since losing to the Ravens in Week eight, Chicago's offense
has come on really strong.

Speaker 2 (01:32:10):
They were twenty.

Speaker 3 (01:32:11):
First in rushing efficiency through those first eight weeks. Since
then they're second. So they're running it at a really
high rate, and that to me is sustainable because if
you're running it well, it means your offensive line is
blocking well, and if you're winning in the trenches, you're
probably gonna win most games. I think the key for

(01:32:32):
the Packers is, like, if you go back and watch
the film from their game against the Broncos last week,
when Watson left the game and all of a sudden,
Denver zone defense became significantly more effective because when you
don't have someone who can take the top off, it
just makes the stress level go down.

Speaker 2 (01:32:50):
So I don't know if Watson's going to play today.
He's questionable, so is the right tackle Zach Tom. That
was a really rough injury game for green Bay and
now they've got a short week.

Speaker 3 (01:32:59):
I know it's not a really sor but it's a
day less than you normally would get and they're on
the road, So this is a tough spot I think
for green Bay today. Like my gut says, Chicago starts
fast and then the game gets tight late and then
it'll be one of those plays, right, does Chicago get
the key turnover. Can Jordan Love play clean football? They
could not solve the Broncos zone last week. Fifty ninth

(01:33:20):
percent tile EPA per drop back one out of four
in the red zone, so they were able to move
it between the twenties. But then once they got into
the red zone, it was all field goals. And that's
where Chicago's defense is gonna have to stiffen because I
do think green Bay listen, green Bay's offense gon't move
it today. I think Jordan Love, I think they're the first.
I think their first and EPA per play on offense
this year, even despite the fact that they got beat

(01:33:41):
last week. I think they're gonna be able to run
it well. That's something Chicago hasn't done well this year
to defend the run. The question is when they get
in the red zone, if they don't have their big
man Watson, can they figure out a way to finish
these drives. And on the other side for Chicago, can
they create that havoc play to flip the field and
to flip the game, because I think if the turnover
mark here's my prediction for the game. If the turnover

(01:34:03):
margins even green Bay wins, if Chicago wins a turnover margin,
they win. Like, I honestly think they have to win
the turnover margin in order to win this game because
their offense still relies on those big plays and if
they don't get those, flip the field havoc plays on
offense and on defense. They're not one of those offenses.
I think that can sustain play after play.

Speaker 4 (01:34:24):
Okay, if we go just a minute for each of us, Okay,
is of the essence. Okay, I'm just looking at the
playoffs right now, like the standings. What's your super Bowl
matchup today? If you had to come up with one
Rams feeling at the AFC, and I'm like, I don't,
I don't like anybody someone contractually has to come out

(01:34:44):
of the AFC.

Speaker 2 (01:34:45):
Similar with the NFC.

Speaker 4 (01:34:47):
With the Rams dropping to a five seed right now,
like maybe not being a one seed, not having home field,
that's a big deal. Going from two home games to
potentially three road games, that's a huge deal. So as
of today, Rich, we'll start with you, what's your super
Bowl matchup?

Speaker 2 (01:35:01):
Your best guess? Yeah, I mean, really quick, I could
easily see it being Rams Bills. Jared. You jumped in
there and you read my mind. I could also see
another one of these NFC West teams, if they get
hot and stay hot, appear in the Super Bowl. Maybe
Seattle gets him with Donald, although Donald trunk in the
postseason last year with Minnesota, so I'm not sure. I'm

(01:35:23):
not sure. I'm not sure if he's there yet, We'll see.
But I could also see this being chaotic. I mean
Jacksonville Chicago. Yeah, I mean, you name it. No, I mean, like, honestly,
if there's ever.

Speaker 3 (01:35:37):
Mamma's got a better chance to win the title than that.

Speaker 2 (01:35:39):
If there's ever been a season where chaos will rain,
has there ever been more parody? It feels like one
of those weird one offs.

Speaker 4 (01:35:47):
And I agree with aren't in there right, Yeah, there's
no moment. It's the recipe for chaos.

Speaker 2 (01:35:52):
Sure, I'll give you my top five ratings. So I
do Super Bowl Island every week on my podcast. I'll
give you my top five of my ratings. Right now,
it's rams Bill, Seahawks, Lions, Eagles. That's kind of the
top the lines in the and the Eagles are tied
for the fifth spot.

Speaker 3 (01:36:07):
I have Denver in there too, so I'll give Denver
some loves. We miss missing the boat on Denver. I
don't fully believe yet, but I'm wrong a lot. They
look like a complete team at boone Nicks is you know.

Speaker 2 (01:36:19):
Turnover free.

Speaker 6 (01:36:21):
If I may jump in, I feel like the one
thing with Denver that doesn't make me take off from
them is like if they get the one seed, that
is a home field advantage for the entire playoffs in
a place with a real home field advantage playing at altitude,
that's or no, no Denver Denver like it is that
playing at altitude is no joke.

Speaker 2 (01:36:39):
I think Buffalo can.

Speaker 3 (01:36:40):
Go into Denver and win. What do you guys think?

Speaker 2 (01:36:43):
Absolutely?

Speaker 4 (01:36:43):
But that's the thing, man, I haven't bought Denver all year.

Speaker 2 (01:36:46):
I mean neither.

Speaker 4 (01:36:47):
Chris's point right, Like, if they're at home and they
have to win two home games to get to the
super Bowl. They've got a really good defense, a really
good offensive line. They sack your quarterback the most, they
give up the least amount of sacks. Like, that's a
formula where you're gonna be in a lot of games.

Speaker 2 (01:37:03):
They're gonna win a lot of games. Peyton's a good
coach too.

Speaker 3 (01:37:07):
Yeah, they're gonna be the one seed.

Speaker 2 (01:37:09):
I mean they play.

Speaker 3 (01:37:09):
They play the Chiefs in the Chargers last two games,
the Jags. If they win the Jags game this week,
they're gonna be the one seed.

Speaker 2 (01:37:14):
I think.

Speaker 3 (01:37:15):
I feel comfortable saying that.

Speaker 4 (01:37:16):
I want to be shocked if Jacksonville goes in there
and gives them a game, right that would.

Speaker 3 (01:37:20):
Liam Cohen's had a hell of here.

Speaker 2 (01:37:21):
Yeah, he's a good coach. That's good team. You know
who I think.

Speaker 3 (01:37:25):
I think it's Buffalo in the Rams. That's my final
answer right now, But I reserve the right to change
out over the next few weeks.

Speaker 2 (01:37:29):
I know probably will make sense.

Speaker 4 (01:37:31):
You know, the way this season is playing out, you'd
probably be like, I want anything but that matchup, you know,
like a week from now or something crazy.

Speaker 3 (01:37:39):
How about San Francisco we sleeping on the Niners?

Speaker 2 (01:37:41):
We are? That's what they got a shot to be
the one seed.

Speaker 3 (01:37:44):
I know.

Speaker 2 (01:37:45):
I left it open, I said, and honestly I feel
like saying Bills and one of the three NFC West.

Speaker 3 (01:37:50):
Teams, like, I don't trust Donald.

Speaker 2 (01:37:53):
I'm willing to limit I do.

Speaker 3 (01:37:54):
I do not trust Sam Darnold. I can't get there.

Speaker 2 (01:37:56):
On Darnald, I can't. Yeah, I can't give you a
hot take.

Speaker 4 (01:38:01):
I'm gonna go Rams, and this requires some explaining Patriots, like, wow,
I know we've sold.

Speaker 2 (01:38:08):
All of our stock.

Speaker 4 (01:38:09):
Right, they've lost at home to the Bills when they
had a twenty one point lead.

Speaker 2 (01:38:13):
I get it. But you still have a pretty good defense.

Speaker 4 (01:38:16):
You still have Drake May who throughout most of the
season has been a legitimate MVP candidate.

Speaker 2 (01:38:21):
You still have Mike Vrabel.

Speaker 4 (01:38:23):
I know they haven't had playoff experience, right, they haven't
been there in a while. Right, It's not like even
Denver last year getting kicked in the teeth by Buffalo
that was playoff experience that could help him out this season.

Speaker 2 (01:38:35):
So yeah, there are a lot.

Speaker 4 (01:38:36):
Of reasons to bet against the Patriots, but right now
they're a two seed, they're gonna win the division. I
think there are reasons too, Like right now you're buying low.
Now no one's running over to the betting window to
take the Patriots. And in an AFC that is as
wide open as I can ever remember it, it's like,
why not them? So I'll go with the Patriots and

(01:38:57):
the Rams. That'll be my Super Bowl pick.

Speaker 2 (01:38:58):
Right now.

Speaker 3 (01:38:59):
Patriots would be a massive shock. I still think they're
a year away, but I think Rabel should be coach
of the Year.

Speaker 2 (01:39:05):
For Surebel's awesome, Drake May's been awesome, and you know,
it's it's funny how we think about certain quarterbacks. I mean,
we don't trust Darnold. We have such a slim perspective
of what he is as a playoff quarterback. Can we
really trust Josh Allen? You know, I mean, like we can.
We know what he looks like in the postseason and

(01:39:25):
he hasn't gotten there yet, you know. I mean same
with Lamar Jackson. It's like, you know, the stories being
written for these quarterbacks. They they can put it together
for a regular season and maybe one or two playoff games,
but when it comes down to the nitty gritty man,
they they have failed so many times now. And so yeah,
I mean, maybe the untested Drake May is the better

(01:39:48):
route to go. Maybe we'll see, man, I can't wait
for the playoffs. It's gonna be crazy.

Speaker 4 (01:39:52):
We've got Rich Hornberger, Penn State All American, Jared Smith
FSR betting analyst. I'm Brian No with the iHeartRadio app.
You can stream us wherever you happen to be. Catch
us in all of our Fox Sports Radio shows live
twenty four to seven in the new and improved iHeartRadio app.
Just search Fox Sports Radio in the app to stream
us all day, every day, and be sure to select
Fox Sports Radio is one of your presets in the

(01:40:14):
iHeart app, so it'll always pop up at the top
of your screen. All right, coming up next, will this
team be aggressive today or are they gonna be super
careful to a fault? Again, we'll explain. It is Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is
Fox Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff, presented by bet MGM.

(01:40:35):
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(01:40:58):
and subscribe.

Speaker 2 (01:41:00):
Right.

Speaker 4 (01:41:00):
So, we've got Miami against Texas A and M today
and uh it's kicking off here in a half hour.
We're on the doorstep of this game. Let's get it on,
as Mills Lane used to say, And we've had some
movement here a and m only favored by two and
a half. Now there's some Miami money like pushing it
down through the key number of three. My big question

(01:41:22):
here is is Miami going to be aggressive because with
the Mario Christobal coach team, especially if they have a lead,
they sometimes have tendencies to get super careful and kind
of Ryan Day this thing up here. You know, like,
as a Dolphins fan, I have.

Speaker 2 (01:41:39):
A confession to make to you guys. Okay, I want
to come clean here on the show.

Speaker 4 (01:41:43):
Yeah, as a diehard Dolphins fan, I was basically pleading
with the football gods for my Dolphins to not draft
Justin Herbert and two draft to a tongue of id wow,
how do.

Speaker 2 (01:41:58):
You go about that?

Speaker 4 (01:41:58):
Now? I feel off about that now, But it goes
back to the way Mario Christibaal didn't utilize Justin Herbert
properly at Oregon. He was so careful, he was so worried,
like let's be conservative, let's run the ball here, and
then when they were losing, it's like, all right, Herbert,
just air it. Out and Herbert's like finally cool, Like

(01:42:19):
they just cut the handcuffs off of him, and he's
like dime dime dime just right down the field. I
just didn't think much of Herbert in college, but it
was more so how Christabal just didn't use him properly.
And so if you apply that to today's game, is
christ Ball going to be aggressive, especially if they have
a lead, or is he gonna get tight, super conservative,

(01:42:40):
super careful because a lot of times that comes back
to bite Miami.

Speaker 2 (01:42:43):
Yeah, I really could you know, Miami, what they're bullied
by this season? Is this this excellent defense, especially early
in games. You know, one of the biggest concerns I
would say for Texas A and M is matching up
with the Hurricanes, who have only allowed four point eight

(01:43:04):
points in the first half throughout the entire season. That's
that's a pretty good average for starting a game off.
And also remember this time slot. You know, it's it's
not gonna be low energy, not by any leaps or bounds.
But this isn't a night game, so might be a
little bit of a sleepy start. Crowd might not all

(01:43:24):
be all the way into it just yet. A and
M you know, they kind of crept out the gates
in Week twelve against South Carolina. They scored only a
field goal, and then they had a ferocious second quarter,
Like absolutely, I mean it was like who let the
dogs out?

Speaker 7 (01:43:39):
You know?

Speaker 2 (01:43:40):
But really they can't. They can't afford a slow start
to Miami. And I think, in my brain, now we'll
see once the fur gets flying what actually happens. But
in my brain, I could very easily see Miami being stout,
Texas A and M having a hard time moving the
football crowds a little drowsy, maybe A and M hasn't

(01:44:02):
woken up yet, and all of a sudden, we have
a first half ball game.

Speaker 3 (01:44:08):
Yeah, I think this is the trenches game.

Speaker 2 (01:44:10):
Guys, I think both.

Speaker 3 (01:44:13):
So you want to talk about NFL talent, Look on
the lines of both of these teams, for Texas A
and m cash is Howell defensive end. I mean, he's
I don't know if he's gonna be a first round pick,
but he's gonna be in the conversation the matchup with
him and Mayaga the right tackle for Miami. Now, he
is gonna be a first round pick. He might be
a top ten pick. I think Miami's got two to

(01:44:34):
three first round, first day, first second, third round picks
on this offensive line. The defensive line for Miami. I mean,
Ruben Bain Junior might be the number one pick in
the draft. I don't know if any of these quarterbacks
are gonna be the guy. That'll be a fun discussion
we have over the next couple months after the NFL
season ends and we get into draft mode. But this

(01:44:57):
is Miami defensive line with Bain Mesador Moten. We've talked
about them multiple times on the show this year.

Speaker 2 (01:45:03):
They've got a match up against A and M's offensive line,
which doesn't have any like elite first round guys, but
as a collective unit, they've been very talented and very
productive this year.

Speaker 3 (01:45:13):
And their nickname is the Maroon Goons, which has to
be one of my favorite nicknames for any offensive line,
maybe in the history of sports. So I think you
have to look in first and then you go outside.
And I think if you do go to the outside,
I think Tony, right, We've talked about him a lot
this year too, Malachi Tony, freshman receiver who's come on
really strong over the last month or two. I think

(01:45:34):
his game's a little bit more complete than the receivers
that A and M has. And if both quarterbacks like
in a vacuum, if neither defensive line can impact the quarterback,
which I don't think will happen, but let's just say
both quarterbacks have clean pockets for the whole game. I
trust Beck a little more than I trust Reid. Reid's
a coach's kid. He's smart, but he's a little inconsistent

(01:45:54):
with his reads. Whereas Beck, I think if you can
protect him and run the he has the ability to
stack plays. The one thing I love about Carson Beck
is he does not bite off more than he could chew.
He is fine with checking it down, taking his five
yards of profit and moving on to the next play
and doing the same thing over and over and over again.
And what that does is to put stress on the
defense to be balanced the whole time, because if you

(01:46:17):
give him an inch, he'll take it. He's not looking
to bite your head off every play. Some quarterbacks get
a little nervy, they get a little impatient, they try
to make the big play. That's what we've seen with
Marcel Reid, where he'll come off of things and come
off come off of windows, that are open because he's
trying to make the big throw. And I think that's
where I trust Miami on the field a little bit more.

(01:46:38):
But then Brian mentioned the Mario Chrystoball factor, the tight
sphincter syndrome factor. That's the part I can't quantify here.
That's the part that scares me about being on Miami.
And now that the line's gone from three and a half,
which I bet earlier this week, now it's three, and
now we're seeing two and.

Speaker 2 (01:46:52):
A Half's.

Speaker 4 (01:46:55):
Tough to get there on Miami at the current price. Bran, Yeah,
you know it's funny to me is follow me on
this one. There are a couple of gymnastics that you
have to do mentally here. Sorry, there will be math
on this show. But I think that Texas A and
M is a lot like Bears quarterback Caleb Williams, meaning
like if you look at Caleb Williams and you're like, wow,

(01:47:17):
you just made that sensational throw and another sensational play,
like wow, that is playmaking defined right there, and then
he'll he'll miss a bunny right Like. It's weird how
that works out with Texas A and M. It's similar
but different in ways. Right, Obviously, we're talking about Texas
A and M's defense. What they have going for them.
Tackles for loss, they're third nationally. They average almost eight

(01:47:40):
tackles for loss per game. Like, they're the lowest third
down conversion rate in the country, that's what they allow
those they're great on third down, they're great at tackles
for loss. They have the highest sack rate in the country,
nearly ten percent. That's a lot of stuff in your
favor right there. Yet somehow, some way, they give up

(01:48:01):
monster plays. And it's like, how can you sack the
quarterback routine? Lee, have all these tackles for loss, be
great on third down, and you're just giving up big
play after big play after big play.

Speaker 2 (01:48:14):
It's just so weird.

Speaker 4 (01:48:15):
With A and M's defense, it is absolutely feast or
famine and we'll see what happens in this game.

Speaker 2 (01:48:20):
But it goes back to the original point.

Speaker 4 (01:48:22):
If Miami is aggressive, right, if Beck is pushing the
ball downfield, if they're hunting those big plays, they're there
to be had. But it's like, is that what Miami's
approach is? Are they aggressive or are they more conservative?
Because if they're hunting big plays. I think they're gonna
hit on a number of them against A and M's defense.
That's just what they've done consistently throughout this season.

Speaker 2 (01:48:43):
Yeah, I think that, you know, going kind of dovetailing
off your point and going back to my original point,
where if you are one of those teams who can
get aggressive against a team like A and M, and
you can keep it close for a half, all of
a sudden, we've got ourselves a ballgame on our hands.

(01:49:04):
I don't sleep on the Hurricanes finding a way to
stifle early production from A and M. And if they
do take some big swings, you know, if they do
find a way to uncork it a little bit, whether
it be with specials, you know, some exotics that they've
kept under the lid for an entire season, or that

(01:49:25):
they've been working on in the interim here, whatever it
may be, If you can catch A and M. Sleep
in a couple of times and pump the football downfield,
get a nice chunk play, or rattle off a nice explosive,
you know, something unexpected, you know, convert on a fourth down.
Even if you're taking a little bit of a gamble
early in the game. You know, sometimes those risks, they

(01:49:48):
can end up being you know, you know in the
postgame review, Hey yeah, Miami just rolled the dice too
many times and it didn't come up for them. But
sometimes those risks are what net you a postseason win
on the road. And I do think you're going to
have to at least one and a half have a
big first half play and a big second half play

(01:50:11):
at least plus play some pretty solid defense, especially in
the first half, to set the tone of this ballgame.
If Miami wants to shot to win this game, I
really do And I'm not saying Texas A and M
is prime for the plucking some pretty good defense, but man,
so is that Hurricanes defense a look out. I really
do think it's going to be a little bit of

(01:50:32):
a war up front, a low scoring first half, and
then who knows, maybe we start seeing the scoreboard light
up a little bit more after these these two contenders
have circled the ring for a little bit for thirty minutes.

Speaker 3 (01:50:45):
I actually think the only edge A and M has
in the game is in the coaching box. I really
think Miami is the better team, but I think A
and M's better coach. In eight SEC games, this year,
A and M played the bottom five teams, including four
that fired their head coaches. They avoided all six of
the top teams in the SEC, so it is very
fair to question the A and M schedule. Even though

(01:51:06):
the SEC obviously is the best conference in America, they
did not face any of the top teams in that
best conference. I love the matchup with Tony. We've talked
a lot about the trenches. Let's give you a little
skill a little skill love here, Malachai. Tony's gonna line
up all over the field. He mostly is a slot receiver.
A and M is very good in the slot. Nickel

(01:51:27):
corner Tyree Chapel is one of the better slot corners
in the country. The Aggies have the seventh fewest yards
per attempt on targets the slot receivers. They're very good
at defending the slot and they're also very good at
defending screen passes. The fewest yards per attempt against screen
passes this year. That's how Miami likes to get Tony involved.
They actually he can throw it too. He played quarterback
in American Heritage led them to a state championship. Just

(01:51:51):
an awesome high school player. High school quarterback so he
can throw it, he can run it, he can catch it.
They're gonna look to get him the ball in all
types of different ways. I think on the other side
of the ball, I'm a little bit concerned about Marce Reid. Guys,
I think the two quarterbacks in this game, I think
Beck's got more experience, for sure, but I think Beck's
a little bit cleaner. Marcel Reid eighth most turnover where

(01:52:13):
he plays amongst powerful quarterbacks this year, only a fifty
two percent accurate pass rate. That's the fifteenth worst mark
of one hundred and forty one qualifiers. He's in the
bottom fifteen of accurate pass rate. So I think he's
a really smart, sharp kid. He's improved dramatically with his arm.
Last year they didn't ask him to do anything. It
was all wigman with throwing it, and then when they

(01:52:34):
brought in Reid, it was more of an RPO option
kind of vibe. He's made strides and improvements throwing it,
but he had a lot of ground to make up,
like He's still not a polished passer in the pocket yet.
So I'm fascinating to see if the game script does
flip Miami's way like if Miami gets off to the
nice start they're running it, you put Texas A and
M in that negative game script, similar to what what

(01:52:54):
we saw against Texas a few weeks ago when A
and M really struggled to make up that lead. I
don't know if reads the type of quarterback that can
play from a negative game script. We're on the other side, Brian,
if A and M takes an early lead, I kind
of trust Carson Beck to make the right decisions and
to get his team back in the game. So the
game script matters a lot here, But I still think

(01:53:14):
the only real edge for A and M in this
game is between the ears in the coaches box. I
really think the players on the field. I think Miami's
a little bit bigger, faster, stronger, especially in the trenches.

Speaker 2 (01:53:25):
Man to me, I hear what you're saying.

Speaker 4 (01:53:26):
It's a tough deal with the quarterback breakdown because the
thing with Carson Beck. Good Carson Beck could show up
in about twenty minutes, or bad Carson Beck could show
up for like the next three hours, you know what
I mean, Like he's just that guy. Like the four
interceptions against Louisville, it was like, what is this guy
doing what is he doing right now? So he has

(01:53:47):
either those games or those halves or those quarters, and
a quarter could beat you if it's bad Carson Beck
against the talented team like Texas A and M. Listen, man,
I go back to I hear you on A and
M schedule. It hasn't been murderer's row. This is actually
the Notre Dame Bowl, right where both teams beat Notre Dame.
That's why Notre Dame is not in this thing. But like,

(01:54:08):
outside of those games, they're not a whole lot for
either team. If you look at that and play the
game with Miami, like outside of that Notre Dame win,
what is fearsome on that schedule? You know they're not
a whole lot. It's an acc schedule and you're you're
playing like a bad Florida State team and like South Florida,
and it's like it's a big shoulder shrug, like in

(01:54:30):
terms of what they've been through and how they've been tested,
they's a much bigger test today against Texas A and M.
So maybe the lack of a gauntlet shows up in
a bad way for either team today. It is a
crazy game, it really is. It's a wild matchup. I
could see it going any which way because both of
these teams to a degree are psychotic, you know, and

(01:54:52):
they both have strengths and they both have obvious weaknesses.
So I think it's gonna be back and I think
it could be completely wide down.

Speaker 3 (01:55:00):
Well no, and so we went to two and a half,
and then people bet came Yeah, yeah, we're gonna We've
been destined the close three on this number the whole week.

Speaker 4 (01:55:08):
Man, I wish they would quit switching these points spreads.
It kind of messes with my picks.

Speaker 3 (01:55:12):
It's so tough to our to do our rapid fire
at the end of the show because the lines we
pick at the beginning of the show usually aren't there. Yeah,
that's crazy, all right, We've got Rich Ornberger, Penn State
All American, Jared Smith FSR betting analyst.

Speaker 2 (01:55:26):
I'm Brian No.

Speaker 4 (01:55:26):
Register with bet MGM to get instant access to the
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(01:55:48):
we alluded to our rapid fire picks right around the
corner as difficult as it could possibly be right before kickoff,
you know, so we'll try to wade through these waters
and get some winners for you. It is Fox Sports
Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by BETMGM. It is Fox
Sports Radios Countdown to Kickoff presented by bet MGM. Be
sure to check out the new looking features in the

(01:56:08):
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(01:56:30):
the BETMGM app. Props to our crew huh Our trusted
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posting our clips. Check us out, give us a follow
on x at Fox Sports Radio. See our video see
our shining Faces. No parlay platter for me today as

(01:56:54):
technical difficulties, but I'm sure these guys faded Bama and
that's gonna come.

Speaker 2 (01:56:58):
Through and.

Speaker 4 (01:57:01):
The top of the hour up on Game LaVar Arrington,
DJ Hushman, Zada, Plaxico, Buris. They've got you covered in
less than nine American minutes. Keep it locked here on
Fox Sports Radio. All right, we got some picks to make.

Speaker 2 (01:57:14):
Let's do it.

Speaker 1 (01:57:18):
Rapid fire.

Speaker 2 (01:57:20):
Okay, Jared, we start with you.

Speaker 7 (01:57:21):
What do you like.

Speaker 2 (01:57:22):
I know what I'm getting Brian for Christmas.

Speaker 3 (01:57:24):
It's gonna be a shirt that says fake Bama. I'm
gonna deliver it to them.

Speaker 2 (01:57:27):
It's gonna be I will proudly wear that will I
might have to wear it if they lose the in
a couple of weeks.

Speaker 3 (01:57:33):
All right, we've been talking about this Miami game a lot.
The number has been moving around. I got three and
a half earlier in the week. It was two and
a half this morning. Now it's back to three. I
like Miami in the game. Do I like three instead
of three and a half? No, but I'll give you three.
If they lose by three and we push well, then
so be it. So Mimi plus three my first bet.
I think Old Mis is gonna come out like a
bad out of Hell today. I like the first half
team total over. That bet is not available at MGM,

(01:57:56):
so I'll just give you the over fifty seven and
a half in the game because I think you're gonna
see tu Lane also run it effectively. I like their
offensive line. I think Ole Mis is gonna be really
fired up for this game in Oxford with the lan
Kip and Drama. Will give me the over fifty seven
and a half, and I think Jmu keeps things just close.

Speaker 2 (01:58:09):
Enough in the first half. I'll take Jamie plus twelve
and a half in the first half tonight against Oregon.

Speaker 3 (01:58:15):
Hopefully they keep it nice and still all right.

Speaker 2 (01:58:19):
I like the Commander's plus seven. I'm gonna go to
the NFL and then I'll will i will whittle my
way back to college football. But Commanders plus seven, I
think Philly is over inflated right now. That was a
huge thumping they put on the Raiders, but I do
not think that the Eagles are that good. Plus they
got a banged up O line, So yeah, I'm riding

(01:58:39):
with the points with Washington. I'm taking the under on
the first half Miami Texas A and M game. I
think it's gonna be a sleepy first half for the
A and M offense. I think Miami their defense is
better than people think and they'll keep it close. So
give me under twenty three and a half first half
between the Gators and the Aggies, and I'm taking the over.

(01:59:03):
In the jmu Organ game, I think James Madison is
going to score. I don't think it's gonna be all
that often, but I do think that they're gonna unload.
They're gonna be hyper aggressive. I think they're going to
try to empty the kitchen sink against the Ducks, and
I think that Oregan's gonna score a ton of points

(01:59:23):
on the Duke. So I'll take the over forty five
and a half. There, All right, are you sitting down
for this? Yeah?

Speaker 4 (01:59:29):
Yeah, I actually agree with both of you guys.

Speaker 2 (01:59:32):
Wow, we have like a Gregorian chant sound effect.

Speaker 4 (01:59:38):
Oh yeah, I'm on Miami A and m under twenty
three and a half in the first half. I appreciate
that Chris PHERVEETI angelic singing voice right there. Yeah, I
just don't think it's gonna be points galore in this
first half. I think christ Ball is gonna be a
little bit conservative. Both defenses can you know, bend but
not break type thing, and I just don't think points

(02:00:00):
are gonna be easy to come by.

Speaker 2 (02:00:01):
Early on.

Speaker 4 (02:00:01):
I'm gonna go Gerard Pringle over forty one and a
half rushing yards to Miami running back, and then from
my final act, give me the Ducks minus twenty and
a half.

Speaker 2 (02:00:10):
This is such a step up in way class. I
don't expect Jamie to d

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