September 6, 2024 • 31 mins
On today’s episode, Jason recaps the Kansas City Chiefs' wild NFL season opening win over the Baltimore Ravens. Can Lamar Jackson continue to put his body in harm's way and still make it through the entire season? Will Jackson ever be able to consistently win games from the pocket? Has Patrick Mahomes reached an even higher level of quarterback play? J-Mac has the answer to all those questions - and more! Later, our fearless leader gives us his Best Bets for a few marquee college football games and the rest of the NFL Week 1 action.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up, straight Fire fan, It's me Jason McIntyre.
Straight Fire for Friday, September sixth. We are recording this
just as the Chiefs survive the Baltimore Ravens ad a
thriller to open the season twenty seven to twenty. The
Ravens appeared to score a touchdown at the buzzer when
(00:31):
Lamar found Isaiah Likely in the back of the end zone,
but replay showed his toe, his literally maybe his big
toe by less than an inch for sure, was on
the out of bounds line. No touchdown, game over. Chiefs
win twenty seven to twenty Hell of a game. Lot
of takeaways from this one. I'm sorry to Ravens fans.
(00:53):
I'm just gonna come out and say it early. I
did not think Lamar Jackson had a good game at all.
I know that the counting numbers say, oh, he had
two hundred and seventy three yards passing and one hundred
and twenty two yards rushing. How's that not a good game?
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Lamar is the reason they were trailing for most of
the game because the deep ball accuracy was so off.
Next Gen stats has posted it. Lamar on passes twenty
or more yards, he was one of five. On passes
are fifteen or more yards four of eleven. He was
not getting it done. Everything was dink and dunk. Rob
pulled the stat that in the first half, Lamar's air
(01:27):
yards was less than one yard per pass. What everything
was behind the line of scrimmage. Now, I will say
this part of the game plan of feeding Justice Hill,
who actually had a much better game than Derreck Henry.
Justice Hill out of the backfield six catches fifty two yards,
took advantage of the Chiefs linebackers who just are They
appear very slow. I'm not gonna get out here and
(01:49):
call guys out by name, but they were just trailing
on everything. Justice Hill shifty and he made guys miss
They They did try to establish the run early. As
you saw, Derrick Henry had, I believe leave on the
first drive alone. He had more carries. I have it
in my notes somewhere. Yeah, Derrick Henry had five carries
on the first drive. Rob g has him in fantasy,
so he's all excited. That's more than any Raven running
(02:12):
back had in the entire AFC title game. So they
made it a point We're going to run the ball.
Lamar had two good completions up thered down early and
then they basically went in the tank until the fourth quarter.
They had the misfield goal, they had Lamar fumble, a
failure on fourth down. It just it wasn't a Crisp
Raven's team. And like I guess, you can get excited
(02:32):
about the takeaway and the drive's late when Lamar's playing
catch up, But overall, I thought Kansas City looked very good.
We haven'ty I mean, we're five minutes into the podcast.
We haven't even talked about Xavier Worthy, the rookie, the
fastest guy at the combine. Nobody feels the need to
get him. Oh, he's a straight line runner. He can't
do much. Kansas City Chiefs get him and he gets
an end a round on his first touch, goes for
(02:54):
the score, and then he basically runs a straight line pattern.
And they had Pacheco in the flat, which confused the
Ravens and Mahomes easily read it untouched touchdown. Worthy had
two of them. Just a really good night for the Chiefs.
Mahomes did have the bad interception, but I think the
overarching takeaways. Yes, this is a Chiefs offense that looked
pretty damn good. Travis Kelce largely non existent three catches
(03:18):
thirty four yards, which kind of hurt the Tailor Swift aspect.
I was expecting t Swift to be on there a lot.
I mean, she had a great outfit. The fit was
absolute fire. I'm sure you guys saw it coming into
the arena. It was all over Instagram and they barely
showed her. Oh so, probably because Blake Lively wasn't with her.
You know, Blake Lively obviously gossip girl like YadA, YadA, YadA.
But overall, I would say big picture, Chiefs looked pretty
(03:39):
damn good. The defense had some a few issues at
linebacker undeniably, I feel like the secondary didn't get lit up. Now,
maybe that's the Lamar accuracy, but Lamar undeniably had likely
opened in the end zone for a touchdown. On the
next play, he had Zay Flowers wide open for a
touchdown and missed him behind him and it was like, oh,
(03:59):
tore Even had to come down a little hard on Lamar.
The deepo accuracy is a problem, and I will say
rob My biggest issue with Lamar Jackson in this game.
Is his desire to, Hey, I'm gonna win this game
for us. I'm going to so I'm not running out
of bounds on quarterback keepers. When I'm trembling, I'm taking hits,
(04:20):
I'm lowering my shoulder. It's like, what are you doing this?
You got an entire season ahead of you, and he's
taken big shots. I'm talking to you. At some point
in the second half, you could tell Lamar's like not sliding.
I counted zero slides in the game, and I went
out of bounds maybe a couple times. But he's out
there inviting contact and I'm thinking this is unsustainable. Sixteen
(04:40):
carries on hundred twenty two yards but no carries longer
than sixteen yards. So it's a lot of running around
and a lot of hits and you lose the game,
and it's like, that's unsustainable. Lamar cannot be doing that.
He will not survive the season if he's getting dotted
up like that by by defender all season long. So
(05:02):
he's got to win from the pocket. And the problem
Rob is that he couldn't win from the pocket last night,
and that ultimately cost the Ravens a game and the Chiefs,
the defending two time champs, start out one to oh.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
Yeah, this was an interesting game because if you are
a Lamar Jackson guy, if you're a fan of Lamar,
then you saw everything that you love about him. Okay,
last season there were two hundred and seventy two regular
season games. One time did a quarterback throw for over
two hundred and rush for over one hundred. Lamar of
Court does that opening night tonight. On the flip side,
(05:35):
if you don't like Lamar and you're one of those
guys who doesn't really believe that his style of play
can win big in the postseason, ultimately, that's what comes
down to. This is one game we all loved watching it.
But these two teams specifically, are not two teams that
we're gonna really panic about week seven, Week eleven, Week fourteen,
Week one, because we expect both of them to be
(05:57):
there in the postseason. Lamar Jackson last night first half
yards per attempt, air yards per attempt under one because
it was all dink and dunk behind the line of scrimmage.
There was no threat whatsoever of him beating the Chiefs
down the field. And on top of that, it feeds
(06:23):
into this narrative, which I don't know if it's a narrative,
if it's factual that his style of play is not
conducive to playing from behind in his career. Lamar Jackson
when trailing by at least ten points at halftime is
zero to five. Now this game, specifically, they were not
(06:44):
down ten points at half time. Believe they were only
down by three, but the Chiefs scored so quickly in
the third quarter it might as well have been a
ten point deficit because they had the entire second half
to go. And when you ask Lamar Jackson to win
with his arm only, it's just something that he kind
of is always going to leave you wanting more. Case
(07:07):
in point, he makes this great scramble out of out
of the pockets, was right, hits Isaiah Likely, who makes
a lot of guys miss down the field, and it's
a one possession game. Lamar gets them down the field again.
Rashard Batman makes an incredible catchdown the sideline to get
him in scoring position. Three shots at the end zone
(07:27):
in the last nineteen seconds, he misses and open Isaiah Likely,
he misses and opens a Flowers, and then on third
down he hits Likely but because of the way his
momentum was carrying him unfortunately lands out of balance. So
the Lamar Jackson game that we saw last night, again,
if you like Lamar, he had what almost four hundred
(07:50):
yards of the offense by himself against one of the
elite defenses in football. I understand why you would like him.
If you're a guy who's more lukewarm on him at best,
kind of where I in it. It's another example as
to why I'm never gonna really feel comfortable with them
in the postseason. Rob Parker said it on The Odd
Couple on Thursday night on Fox Sports Radio. The Baltimore
(08:13):
Ravens are very similar to the Boston Celtics, where they
kept winning in the regular season and winning and winning.
They were always one of the final three or four
teams there in the NBA, but you weren't gonna believe
that they could actually win a championship until they won
a championship. And that's kind of where I feel about
Lamar and this Baltimore Ravens team.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Yeah, I actually like the comparison to James Harden, who
was a regular season juggernaut. I mean, there was a
time people forget this, like pre COVID maybe twenty eighteen,
twenty nineteen, where it was like, James Harden's the best
offensive player since Michael Jordan. He's as good as Jordan
was offensively, and you're like, oh, that's a take. And
then you see the numbers and he's largely unstoppable, and
(08:57):
that's Lamar Jackson in the regular season. And then you
get to the playoffs and defenses are tighter, the passing
windows are even smaller, the pressure gets to you. You
going on the road. Last year they were at home,
and everything just adds up to and he just keeps
up coming up short. It felt to me like he said, man,
Casey's got my number. I'm one and four against him.
I'm winning this fan game. I'm gonna win this myself.
(09:19):
And he tried to do too much and took a
lot of hits and he just missed on a bunch
of deep passes. Now listen, this guy is not falling
for Baltimore. I do think they were a little fortunate
with the Mahomes interception in the middle of the field,
which was abysmal, and then Mahomes had Pachecko drop a
touchdown pass on the right sideline. It was like right
(09:39):
in the bread basket he dropped it. Of course, I
have Pachecko and fantasy side note, I bet Pachecko over
seventy nine and a half total yards rush you can receiving,
and he didn't do a ton in the first half,
but you could tell like he's got some juice and
bounce and pop and he's tough. He never stops running.
He landed on seventy eight total yards. It was just unbelievable,
(10:01):
like like, I know people don't like the Vegas knows.
Vegas doesn't know anything. Oh yeah, yeah, nothing. So how
did they line seventy nine and a half yards for Proteco?
Now you could say, well, Jason, did you see Likely's
over under for Isaiah Likely was one and a half catches?
I did not see that, But Vegas was way off
on that. Well, I think everybody was. And to me
(10:22):
it looked like Mark Andrews has washed and Isaiah Likely's
tight end number one. That offense to me is gonna
be Jay Flowers number one option, Isaiah Likely probably number two,
and Derek Henry running the football is number three. And
I got to give a shout out to Justice Hill.
Rob If you look at the final play where Lamar's
running for his life to throw the pass to likely
(10:43):
Justice Hills blocking Chris Jones one v one.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Yeah, that could not have been. When I saw that,
I'm like, this is the terrible idea.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
But he did.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
He did a great job.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
I mean, and Jones Jones was getting after and he
must have been absolutely gassed. So yeah, sky not falling
for the Ravens. But it's just it's clear they're not
as good as they were last year in any capacity.
And I mean, next week they're probably gonna smash the Ravens.
I'm sorry, the Raiders in week two probably destroy them.
Then they get Dallas, tough ish matchup Buffalo Cincinnati, Like
(11:14):
there's a world where they start one and three. I
don't think Washington's gonna be great. The schedule softens up
in the middle, and they're ultimately gonna win eight or
nine or ten games, probably closer to ten. But I
just don't see it as good as a last year's team.
And the defense obviously struggled mightily to stop Mahomes in
(11:35):
the first half. Rob are you surprised by the little
usage of Kelsey? I mean, it seems like Rashee Rice,
who somehow is supposed to be in trouble with the law,
and then there's like he's playing seven catches one hundred
and three yards, he somehow keeps getting matched up with
linebackers over the middle. Andy Reid just schemes up some
of the best shit. You know, the Ravens, they kept
(11:56):
getting stuck with linebackers on Rashee Rice and it's like
that's not great, and Rice kind of ate. But I'm
a little surprised Kelsey just he didn't look like he
had it man. No.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Yeah, And as far as the Ravens go, it would
be darn near impossible for them to be better than
they were last year because, as you recall, up until
that game in the AFC Championship game, not only were
they winning, they were just blowing teams out like they
were an absolute jugger out last season, and then they
played their worst game in the worst time. As far
as the Chiefs go, this to me says a hell
(12:29):
of a lot more about Patrick Mahomes he does about
Travis Kelsey, because old Patrick Mahomes, you know, two three
four years ago, would have just found way to pepper
the ball to Travis Kelcey. Similar to the how he
used to pepper the ball to Tyreek Hill. You know,
he finds a guy he likes, he's gonna throw it
to him even if he's covered, because Patrick Mahomes is
one of those guys who can throw it into coverage
(12:50):
and he has the kind of arm talent where he
can make things happen. He doesn't have to, you know,
because he's that good. But what you saw from him
starting last season, especially down on the home stretch especially
was if you're gonna give me these matchup wins for
my guy versus your guy, like the Rashi Rice thing
you pointed out. Even Chris Collinsworth was saying, they've run
(13:11):
the same play about four different times at different formations
and it's just Rashi Rice isolated against a linebacker. Raschi
Riy is gonna win that every time of the day.
So if you're not gonna stop that, I'm gonna keep
doing it. If you're gonna leave Noah Gray uncovered over
the middle of the field, Justin Watson uncovered over middlefield,
I'm gonna throw them the ball. And now I've gotten
(13:33):
to a point where we've kind of gotten the drop
seats out of our system from last season, where I'm
much more confident in the guys we have going out there.
Xavier Worthy made the plays when he had opportunities, so
he didn't have to really make a point to get
Kelsey going like he normally would, because Andy Reid and
(13:54):
that offense, we're just getting his guys open. It didn't
matter that, you know, samaj p Ryan had almost as
many targets as Kelsey, Your Guysaya Pacheco had one less
target than Kelsey. Like, if they're gonna give him those opportunities,
He's a mature quarterback now and he doesn't have to
always be superman. He's gonna take what you give.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
I did notice the Chiefs run game twenty carries seventy
two yards. The only play that went longer than five
yards on the ground was the Worthy end around for
the touchdown. Pachecko's longest carry of fifteen was five yards.
Fifteen carries, the longest was five That's a little staggering,
but through the air, Rashi Rice had an explosive play
Worthy obviously the touchdown. Kelsey had one, Pachecko had one.
(14:37):
Justin Watson had won like Mahomes was spreading the ball around. Listen,
I'm kind of sick of the Chiefs, but it's easy
to watch Mahomes do his magic and dance around. Next week,
not bad Rob Bengals at Kansas City. That's not a
bad Week two game. That'll be the Marquee game at
(14:58):
four twenty five on CB. Yes, Chiefs Begles. Bengals will
be coming in one or oh after the win over
the Patriots. And let me segue at this point to
best bets, of which there are far too many for
Week one in the NFL, and a couple for college.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live. The only thing better than sitting on your
couch watching the games is making money while you do it.
(15:35):
Here's your best bet.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
All right, let's hit up the best bets for the weekend.
I'm just gonna get college football out of the way early.
All I have is four plays. I know college football
went well last weekend. As of now, only four plays,
but they're simply fades of narratives. After last week, I'm
going against Notre Dame. I took Northern Illinois plus twenty
nine plus twenty eight. I don't know anything about Northern Illinois.
(16:02):
I'm sure they're gonna lose this football game. I just
think Notre Dame after a hard fought, huge win over
Texas A and M on the road, one of those
games where it's like, hey, we got to start this
season with a win. This game is everything to us.
Notre Dame pulls it out in the fourth quarter. Awesome victory. Right,
they probably lose focus a little bit, go home and
(16:24):
play a week. Northern Illinois team on deck is Perdue
next week. Perdue is not great by any stretch. They
won their first game forty nine nothing, that don't mean jack,
but they have a bye week. My guess is Notre
Dame really dials it back offensively, doesn't show a lot,
and gets out of there with probably, you know, twenty
one to three victory, something where they don't cover the spread.
(16:45):
I'm also doing that with Oregon, which looked very pedestrian
in its opener against the Idaho Vandals. I think it
was fourteen to nothing at halftime, and then they messed
around second half play with their food, and next thing
you know, it's a close game. Oregon did come close
to covering last week. They also started a walk on center.
I don't know if you guys saw that. Some of
(17:06):
the stuff I was reading on Oregon like, they kind
of sat two of their best defenders. They had them
play very limited snaps. Basically, they were treating like a
preseason game. Hey, we got bigger fish to fry. We're
gonna sit a bunch of guys. We're resting. We're not
gonna go all out, which I get Boise State though
coming off a big win. Some guys score six touchdowns.
Boise State gave up forty five points to Georgia Southern.
(17:27):
I don't know what you guys think the Ducks are
gonna do, but they're gonna put it on. So I
took Oregon minus nineteen and minus nineteen and a half.
These are the last two are a little tougher. Yes,
I want some skin in the game in Texas Michigan. Yes,
Texas is better. Are they more than a touchdown? Touchdown?
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Better?
Speaker 2 (17:44):
On the road? Again, don't overreact to what you saw
from Michigan last week. That's all I'll say. They weren't great.
It was a very vanilla scheme. It was tinkering and
putting nothing on tape. They'll be ready this week. Okay.
I know they lost a lot of guys, and I
don't think to the better team here. I think Texas
is the side. I don't think they're gonna cover.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
Now.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Maybe maybe they absolutely blast Michigan and send them back
into the Stone Age with a thirty five point victory.
I gotta see that to believe it. Okay, By the way,
this game was posted all summer and it was like,
I believe I saw Texas minus four. So you're telling
me in a week based on one football game sixty minutes,
Texas looks great, Michigan looks average or weak, and we're
(18:26):
gonna bump up the line three points. I think the
public's coming in hand over fist on Michigan. Will I'm
sorry on Texas. I will gladly take seven and a
half on Michigan and the final one. And this stinks
because I really wanted to take Nebraska even when we
had Brad Powers on. You guys can go back and listen.
He's on the under on Colorado. I don't think Colorado
(18:47):
is a very good football team. They have a couple
awesome players, undeniable when this line opened. I was honestly expecting, Okay,
it'll probably be Nebraska by two or three, and I'll
take Nebraska. And then they open and it's Nebraska by
seven and a half. What really, Nebraska, all of us
(19:07):
Nebraska off one good game, hyping a quarterback. They're not
good defensively. They don't have a lot of talent. If
you look at the most high end talent, Colorado has
more than Nebraska. Now, Colorado doesn't have a lot of talent,
but neither does Nebraska. I just can see Colorado throwing
and throwing and throwing. They're probably gonna be trailing all game,
probably gonna be down twenty one at one point. But
Shador and Travis Hunter, they're not throwing in the towel,
(19:30):
and I expect them to keep chucking and duck in
and come in the back door. So I took Colorado
getting seven and a half. It's ugly. Listen fading Notre
Dame Colorado on the road, fading Texas Like these are
risky plays, but this is what college football is all
about week to week. All right, let's get to the NFL.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
Now listen again. These lines have been up for I
don't know, four or five months. Okay, they've been picked at.
There's not a ton of value out there, but I
can't really resist, and I do think, yeah, I think
that I have smarter takes them. What's out there on
certain games. I believe I can find some edges. Here's
what we got. So the biggest bet I have is
(20:20):
on Jack's Dolphins over forty nine. Everything I've researched. Both
defenses very bad, both secondaries, like really really bad. You're
talking about new defensive coordinator in Miami. It looks like
Jalen Ramsey may not even play. They're down like five starters, folks.
Jacksonville's gonna move the football in this game Miami. We
(20:44):
know they're going to torch Wattle Tyreek Hill. This offense
is gonna be a machine juggernaut. This to me screams
like forty thirty three, Dolphins, thirty eight thirty five, some
something high scoring. The only thing that could be a
wrinkle here. The only thing is if somehow there's this
(21:04):
big rain storm and I got family in Florida. I
know it rains there every freaking weekend. There's these power
storms for like ten minutes. Then it's fine. This game
and the Washington Tampa which we'll get to, could be
impacted by rain. So you could end up getting screwed
if it's a monsoon for an hour. Yeah, over is
not gonna be looking good. But I think McDaniel and
that offense, remember they've had all season, all off season.
(21:26):
McDaniel has to kind of rejigger the offense because remember
at the end of last season, defense started to slow
down Miami a little bit. They knew, hey, you got
to play press coverage and you got to get to
to a quick Okay, McDaniel, he's smart, he's out there,
he knows what's up. He's gonna be totally adjusting everything.
I anticipate a different look from this Miami offense. I
(21:48):
think he's still gonna be high octane. My gut tells
me this sail's over and hopefully there's no weather impacting it.
I also kind of lean Jags three and a half,
but I didn't bet it. Okay, let me buzz through
the rest of them. I went under twenty. That's low
in the first half for Raiders Chargers under twenty. The
(22:09):
logic here, this is a Chargers offense. If you if
you guys have Pro football focus, call it up and look,
the wide receiver one is back, their slot receiver is new,
their other receiver. It looks like they're gonna start Jerry
Rice's kid, who I think went in the seventh round.
He might be the other starter on the outside. You've
got a new tight end, You've got a new right
(22:29):
tackle to rookie and alt, You've got an all new backfield,
and you got justin Herbert Hobbold. I don't know what
to expect from the Chargers, but I did see that
the Chargers picked up like a three hundred pounds full back.
What do you think they're gonna use him for? Guys
like massive blocking, heavy dose of Dobbins and Gus the
bus Like I would not be surprised if they had
(22:51):
forty plus carries for the Chargers offense. And I just
expect this game to be played really tight in some
not quite in a phone booth. And we know the
Raider they've got one path to victory right defense and
run the football. They're not going to go and be
have Gardner Minshew dropping back thirty times. It's just not
happening unless they're training. So I anticipate a lot of
ugly football. The familiarity with the divisional matchups you guys
(23:14):
heard earlier in the week. Divisional dogs in week one
are a great play seventeen and four and I believe
the last ten or eleven years. I mean it's I
kind of like the Raiders. I'm not betting them because
I'm rooting Chargers, but I'm of the beliefs that this
is just a super low scoring game. So I got
under twenty in the first half. Raiders Chargers. I went
(23:39):
with let's see what else we got here. Two of
the bets I made in Vegas. One's probably dead. I
got Cardinals plus five and a half. Don't love that.
It's the numbers awful. It was at one moment cratering down.
Now it's back up to six and a half. It's
probably dead. I don't even know that. I mean, I
liked I bet it at five and a half, so
I guess at six and a half you could consider
taking it. Don't see a lot of stops here from Arizona.
(24:02):
But at the same time, I don't know how good
this Buffalo defense is. No Milano all new secondary Kyler,
who I have in one fantasy team, is going to
be jacking'. I anticipate a lot of points. I just
don't know if they will get enough Arizona to stay
within the number. The other one I have is Minnesota,
and I'm probably gonna take them in the contest at
the Giants Minnesota either one, one and a half two,
(24:26):
you could go money line. I don't believe in the
Giants at all. I know Dables calling plays now, which
kind of changes things and maybe makes you can smell
the desperation from the Giants, desperate times, desperate measures. Maybe
they come out, well, we got fource feed neighbors. Let's
ride this defensive front. But the Vikings have a good
defensive line. I think the Vikings should hold of at
(24:47):
Bay and then you get Justin Jefferson matched up on
the outside with a bad Giant secondary feels low scoring.
I just like I like the Vikings to win this.
I'll probably be on them in the contest. Others that
I have Saints Panthers, which is an ugly game that
absolutely nobody cares about. I have Panthers plus four Panthers
money line and over forty one. I know that's way
(25:08):
too heavy on a crap game. I feel like the
Panthers are undervalued. If you go back to our Adam
Turnoff discussion this summer, we had a great chat about
Carolina and how much better they are. They're improved on
the offensive line, defensive line despite losing Burn's massive, upgraded
head coach, better at wide receiver with Deontay Johnson. I
think all signs are pointing up for Carolina. Hey j
(25:31):
they can only go up after last year fair And
at the same time, you look at the Saints and
it's like, ooh, not trending good offensive line could be
the worst in the NFC, which is crazy. I didn't
realize it was that bad until you really start to
dig in. You're like, oh, okay, so they have a
lave and Taysom Hill's doing what Where's Taysom Hill? But
Alvin Kamara is what is Alvin Kamara looks kind of
(25:54):
sort of washed based on last year, and I don't know,
I don't want to say he's going down here like
Derek Henry, but these guys have been in the league
for a while taking punishment or running back. I don't
know where the Saints get weapons, but I do believe
Caroline is gonna come out surprise the hell out of them,
and the Saints are going to be forced to be
throwing it all over the field, and all of a
sudden we get in a bit of a slugfest. Be
(26:14):
careful on the total of the last seven in this
series have gone under, so you know, I got to
just put that out there. Another total I have under
forty one and Patriots Bengals don't know if Jamar Chase
is going to play. Patriots only have one path to victory,
Jacoby Brissett handing the football off and making safe checkdown throws.
Almost Lamar Jackson ash ooh, sorry, I went there offensively
(26:35):
I meant. And maybe the Bengals offense butters a little
bit without Chase and then they don't get to forty one.
Another game I'm probably too loaded up on is this
Washington Tampa game, which could be played in the monsoon.
We'll see again Tampa weather in September. It's hurricane season
in Florida. I'd got Washington getting three and a half
Washington money line, and I took the over forty four.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Maybe it's because Jayden Daniels looks kind of like with
his mannerisms and the way he runs and throws a
little like RG three, And I remember how RG three
was just such a force right out again in that offense,
so totally different draft. I made a point to draft
scary Terry McLaurin. I have a feeling this Washington defense,
oh sorry, offense with Cliff Kingsbury could put up points Washington.
(27:21):
They're gonna have to because the Washington defense is abysmal.
Outside of the front four, the cornerbacks are awful, and
I do believe they could have trouble stopping Baker Mayfield.
This feels like a thirty twenty seven type game where
out of the blue, it's a barn burner and there's
points on points on points and the overcashes and I'm
just hoping Washington can can kind of come in the
(27:43):
back door there, let's see. Obviously, Seattle was probably my
biggest bet this summer, but that was at five as
soon as bo Nix was announced as a starter. Then
it went to five and a half, then it went
to six. I'm sure we talked about reverse line movement.
You guys know what that is. Reverse line movement is
all over this one big time. The public is betting Denver.
(28:04):
They like Sean Payton, they like bow Knicks, they like
bo Nix's experience in college. They think Denver's a by low.
The sharp betters are all over Seattle because of McDonald,
their defensive court, the defensive coordinator for Baltimore who comes
to Seattle, the offensive coordinator gets an influx no more
than Pete Carroll. Run the football and play defense. That's
(28:27):
what Pete Carroll wanted to do. The new OC comes
from Washington Grubb and he did like all three wide
receiver sets. So Jackson Smith the jig, but which he
had like an underwhelming rookie year only because he didn't
play as much as everybody expected. It seems like he's
gonna be on the field all the time now, so
I made a point to draft him in fantasy. So
it feels like with that high octane offense, and Patrick
(28:49):
Shurtan is probably gonna get stuck on DK or Patrick
or Sirtan's gonna just try to lock down one side
of the field. So Lockett and or JSN could eat.
I just I think this is a Seattle rump. Seattle
has been, as you guys know, from my haircut incident
with with the herd last two years ago. I've got
to be very yeah, two years ago, I got to
(29:10):
be very careful with the Seahawks. Sometimes I just don't
understand them. I did put a little bet on them
at plus six eighty eight to win the NFC West. Listen,
I'm not gonna talk too much about this McCaffrey stuff,
but did you guys see they added to the injury
report on Thursday not only his calf, but it's his
achilles and it's like cheese, Trent williams ayuk McCaffrey, I
(29:35):
do things are looking a little rickety in San Franz.
I'll just leave it at that. At any rate, we'll
do that on Monday. But yeah, so Seattle kind of
sort of bullet show on what else do we have here?
Is that it that might oh oh, Colts plus three
and Colts I think I said that Colts plus three
Colts money line against the Texans. It's a risky play.
(29:57):
It's as strictly I'm not a trend better as you
guys know. But trends can rear their head in Week
one Divisional Dogs. There's three of them, and we've talked
about them shockingly, Raiders, Panthers, and Colts, and it just
it strikes me as odd that there was all this
Super Bowl momentum for the Houston Texans and all of
(30:20):
a sudden you start to look back to the end
of last season when it was Houston Indy for a
spot in the playoffs, and oh wow, Indy with Gardner
Minshew was like, right in the game, they just the
kid dropped a fourth down pass. I think I talked
about that this week where it was Cowherd's birthday party
or whatever, and Chip Kelly was there and he's like, oh, yeah,
they're gonna do this that, and it was like almost
(30:41):
exactly happened, and it's like, huh so, now Houston and
what was a touch and go game in Indy. Houston
has to go back there, and it's like we have
a healthy Anthony Richardson and you know, Shane Steike in
year two in the offense, like I know, there's a
world here. And by the way, Stichen I remember they
(31:02):
went down I think it was twenty one nothing to
the Rams and then storm back. This team will not quit,
and I know everybody loves the Texans. They're gonna be good.
We had David Baker on who said, I think he
has the Texans in the super Bowl. They might make
it there. But you just look at this Colts team
and this number, and I don't know. I just can't
you get in three at home in a divisional matchup.
I gotta take that. And then I took money line
(31:22):
just for the hell of it. So those are the plays.
If I add any on ig you can follow me
on Instagram. I'll put some more on stories. Folks, I'm excited.
You don't want to shoot your wad opening weekend, but man,
it is. It's like when you go to Vegas to
party the first night. Everybody goes hard because they're so
amped up and so excited to be there, and it's like, oh, okay,
(31:43):
I have nothing left for the rest. Don't be that
guy when it comes to NFL bet So, enjoy Week
one and we'll be back here on Monday. Talk to
you then.
This is straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up, straight Fire fan, It's me Jason McIntyre.
Straight Fire for Friday, September sixth. We are recording this
just as the Chiefs survive the Baltimore Ravens ad a
thriller to open the season twenty seven to twenty. The
Ravens appeared to score a touchdown at the buzzer when
(00:31):
Lamar found Isaiah Likely in the back of the end zone,
but replay showed his toe, his literally maybe his big
toe by less than an inch for sure, was on
the out of bounds line. No touchdown, game over. Chiefs
win twenty seven to twenty Hell of a game. Lot
of takeaways from this one. I'm sorry to Ravens fans.
(00:53):
I'm just gonna come out and say it early. I
did not think Lamar Jackson had a good game at all.
I know that the counting numbers say, oh, he had
two hundred and seventy three yards passing and one hundred
and twenty two yards rushing. How's that not a good game?
Speaker 1 (01:06):
Listen.
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Lamar is the reason they were trailing for most of
the game because the deep ball accuracy was so off.
Next Gen stats has posted it. Lamar on passes twenty
or more yards, he was one of five. On passes
are fifteen or more yards four of eleven. He was
not getting it done. Everything was dink and dunk. Rob
pulled the stat that in the first half, Lamar's air
(01:27):
yards was less than one yard per pass. What everything
was behind the line of scrimmage. Now, I will say
this part of the game plan of feeding Justice Hill,
who actually had a much better game than Derreck Henry.
Justice Hill out of the backfield six catches fifty two yards,
took advantage of the Chiefs linebackers who just are They
appear very slow. I'm not gonna get out here and
(01:49):
call guys out by name, but they were just trailing
on everything. Justice Hill shifty and he made guys miss
They They did try to establish the run early. As
you saw, Derrick Henry had, I believe leave on the
first drive alone. He had more carries. I have it
in my notes somewhere. Yeah, Derrick Henry had five carries
on the first drive. Rob g has him in fantasy,
so he's all excited. That's more than any Raven running
(02:12):
back had in the entire AFC title game. So they
made it a point We're going to run the ball.
Lamar had two good completions up thered down early and
then they basically went in the tank until the fourth quarter.
They had the misfield goal, they had Lamar fumble, a
failure on fourth down. It just it wasn't a Crisp
Raven's team. And like I guess, you can get excited
(02:32):
about the takeaway and the drive's late when Lamar's playing
catch up, But overall, I thought Kansas City looked very good.
We haven'ty I mean, we're five minutes into the podcast.
We haven't even talked about Xavier Worthy, the rookie, the
fastest guy at the combine. Nobody feels the need to
get him. Oh, he's a straight line runner. He can't
do much. Kansas City Chiefs get him and he gets
an end a round on his first touch, goes for
(02:54):
the score, and then he basically runs a straight line pattern.
And they had Pacheco in the flat, which confused the
Ravens and Mahomes easily read it untouched touchdown. Worthy had
two of them. Just a really good night for the Chiefs.
Mahomes did have the bad interception, but I think the
overarching takeaways. Yes, this is a Chiefs offense that looked
pretty damn good. Travis Kelce largely non existent three catches
(03:18):
thirty four yards, which kind of hurt the Tailor Swift aspect.
I was expecting t Swift to be on there a lot.
I mean, she had a great outfit. The fit was
absolute fire. I'm sure you guys saw it coming into
the arena. It was all over Instagram and they barely
showed her. Oh so, probably because Blake Lively wasn't with her.
You know, Blake Lively obviously gossip girl like YadA, YadA, YadA.
But overall, I would say big picture, Chiefs looked pretty
(03:39):
damn good. The defense had some a few issues at
linebacker undeniably, I feel like the secondary didn't get lit up. Now,
maybe that's the Lamar accuracy, but Lamar undeniably had likely
opened in the end zone for a touchdown. On the
next play, he had Zay Flowers wide open for a
touchdown and missed him behind him and it was like, oh,
(03:59):
tore Even had to come down a little hard on Lamar.
The deepo accuracy is a problem, and I will say
rob My biggest issue with Lamar Jackson in this game.
Is his desire to, Hey, I'm gonna win this game
for us. I'm going to so I'm not running out
of bounds on quarterback keepers. When I'm trembling, I'm taking hits,
(04:20):
I'm lowering my shoulder. It's like, what are you doing this?
You got an entire season ahead of you, and he's
taken big shots. I'm talking to you. At some point
in the second half, you could tell Lamar's like not sliding.
I counted zero slides in the game, and I went
out of bounds maybe a couple times. But he's out
there inviting contact and I'm thinking this is unsustainable. Sixteen
(04:40):
carries on hundred twenty two yards but no carries longer
than sixteen yards. So it's a lot of running around
and a lot of hits and you lose the game,
and it's like, that's unsustainable. Lamar cannot be doing that.
He will not survive the season if he's getting dotted
up like that by by defender all season long. So
(05:02):
he's got to win from the pocket. And the problem
Rob is that he couldn't win from the pocket last night,
and that ultimately cost the Ravens a game and the Chiefs,
the defending two time champs, start out one to oh.
Speaker 3 (05:12):
Yeah, this was an interesting game because if you are
a Lamar Jackson guy, if you're a fan of Lamar,
then you saw everything that you love about him. Okay,
last season there were two hundred and seventy two regular
season games. One time did a quarterback throw for over
two hundred and rush for over one hundred. Lamar of
Court does that opening night tonight. On the flip side,
(05:35):
if you don't like Lamar and you're one of those
guys who doesn't really believe that his style of play
can win big in the postseason, ultimately, that's what comes
down to. This is one game we all loved watching it.
But these two teams specifically, are not two teams that
we're gonna really panic about week seven, Week eleven, Week fourteen,
Week one, because we expect both of them to be
(05:57):
there in the postseason. Lamar Jackson last night first half
yards per attempt, air yards per attempt under one because
it was all dink and dunk behind the line of scrimmage.
There was no threat whatsoever of him beating the Chiefs
down the field. And on top of that, it feeds
(06:23):
into this narrative, which I don't know if it's a narrative,
if it's factual that his style of play is not
conducive to playing from behind in his career. Lamar Jackson
when trailing by at least ten points at halftime is
zero to five. Now this game, specifically, they were not
(06:44):
down ten points at half time. Believe they were only
down by three, but the Chiefs scored so quickly in
the third quarter it might as well have been a
ten point deficit because they had the entire second half
to go. And when you ask Lamar Jackson to win
with his arm only, it's just something that he kind
of is always going to leave you wanting more. Case
(07:07):
in point, he makes this great scramble out of out
of the pockets, was right, hits Isaiah Likely, who makes
a lot of guys miss down the field, and it's
a one possession game. Lamar gets them down the field again.
Rashard Batman makes an incredible catchdown the sideline to get
him in scoring position. Three shots at the end zone
(07:27):
in the last nineteen seconds, he misses and open Isaiah Likely,
he misses and opens a Flowers, and then on third
down he hits Likely but because of the way his
momentum was carrying him unfortunately lands out of balance. So
the Lamar Jackson game that we saw last night, again,
if you like Lamar, he had what almost four hundred
(07:50):
yards of the offense by himself against one of the
elite defenses in football. I understand why you would like him.
If you're a guy who's more lukewarm on him at best,
kind of where I in it. It's another example as
to why I'm never gonna really feel comfortable with them
in the postseason. Rob Parker said it on The Odd
Couple on Thursday night on Fox Sports Radio. The Baltimore
(08:13):
Ravens are very similar to the Boston Celtics, where they
kept winning in the regular season and winning and winning.
They were always one of the final three or four
teams there in the NBA, but you weren't gonna believe
that they could actually win a championship until they won
a championship. And that's kind of where I feel about
Lamar and this Baltimore Ravens team.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Yeah, I actually like the comparison to James Harden, who
was a regular season juggernaut. I mean, there was a
time people forget this, like pre COVID maybe twenty eighteen,
twenty nineteen, where it was like, James Harden's the best
offensive player since Michael Jordan. He's as good as Jordan
was offensively, and you're like, oh, that's a take. And
then you see the numbers and he's largely unstoppable, and
(08:57):
that's Lamar Jackson in the regular season. And then you
get to the playoffs and defenses are tighter, the passing
windows are even smaller, the pressure gets to you. You
going on the road. Last year they were at home,
and everything just adds up to and he just keeps
up coming up short. It felt to me like he said, man,
Casey's got my number. I'm one and four against him.
I'm winning this fan game. I'm gonna win this myself.
(09:19):
And he tried to do too much and took a
lot of hits and he just missed on a bunch
of deep passes. Now listen, this guy is not falling
for Baltimore. I do think they were a little fortunate
with the Mahomes interception in the middle of the field,
which was abysmal, and then Mahomes had Pachecko drop a
touchdown pass on the right sideline. It was like right
(09:39):
in the bread basket he dropped it. Of course, I
have Pachecko and fantasy side note, I bet Pachecko over
seventy nine and a half total yards rush you can receiving,
and he didn't do a ton in the first half,
but you could tell like he's got some juice and
bounce and pop and he's tough. He never stops running.
He landed on seventy eight total yards. It was just unbelievable,
(10:01):
like like, I know people don't like the Vegas knows.
Vegas doesn't know anything. Oh yeah, yeah, nothing. So how
did they line seventy nine and a half yards for Proteco?
Now you could say, well, Jason, did you see Likely's
over under for Isaiah Likely was one and a half catches?
I did not see that, But Vegas was way off
on that. Well, I think everybody was. And to me
(10:22):
it looked like Mark Andrews has washed and Isaiah Likely's
tight end number one. That offense to me is gonna
be Jay Flowers number one option, Isaiah Likely probably number two,
and Derek Henry running the football is number three. And
I got to give a shout out to Justice Hill.
Rob If you look at the final play where Lamar's
running for his life to throw the pass to likely
(10:43):
Justice Hills blocking Chris Jones one v one.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
Yeah, that could not have been. When I saw that,
I'm like, this is the terrible idea.
Speaker 2 (10:50):
But he did.
Speaker 1 (10:51):
He did a great job.
Speaker 2 (10:52):
I mean, and Jones Jones was getting after and he
must have been absolutely gassed. So yeah, sky not falling
for the Ravens. But it's just it's clear they're not
as good as they were last year in any capacity.
And I mean, next week they're probably gonna smash the Ravens.
I'm sorry, the Raiders in week two probably destroy them.
Then they get Dallas, tough ish matchup Buffalo Cincinnati, Like
(11:14):
there's a world where they start one and three. I
don't think Washington's gonna be great. The schedule softens up
in the middle, and they're ultimately gonna win eight or
nine or ten games, probably closer to ten. But I
just don't see it as good as a last year's team.
And the defense obviously struggled mightily to stop Mahomes in
(11:35):
the first half. Rob are you surprised by the little
usage of Kelsey? I mean, it seems like Rashee Rice,
who somehow is supposed to be in trouble with the law,
and then there's like he's playing seven catches one hundred
and three yards, he somehow keeps getting matched up with
linebackers over the middle. Andy Reid just schemes up some
of the best shit. You know, the Ravens, they kept
(11:56):
getting stuck with linebackers on Rashee Rice and it's like
that's not great, and Rice kind of ate. But I'm
a little surprised Kelsey just he didn't look like he
had it man. No.
Speaker 3 (12:07):
Yeah, And as far as the Ravens go, it would
be darn near impossible for them to be better than
they were last year because, as you recall, up until
that game in the AFC Championship game, not only were
they winning, they were just blowing teams out like they
were an absolute jugger out last season, and then they
played their worst game in the worst time. As far
as the Chiefs go, this to me says a hell
(12:29):
of a lot more about Patrick Mahomes he does about
Travis Kelsey, because old Patrick Mahomes, you know, two three
four years ago, would have just found way to pepper
the ball to Travis Kelcey. Similar to the how he
used to pepper the ball to Tyreek Hill. You know,
he finds a guy he likes, he's gonna throw it
to him even if he's covered, because Patrick Mahomes is
one of those guys who can throw it into coverage
(12:50):
and he has the kind of arm talent where he
can make things happen. He doesn't have to, you know,
because he's that good. But what you saw from him
starting last season, especially down on the home stretch especially
was if you're gonna give me these matchup wins for
my guy versus your guy, like the Rashi Rice thing
you pointed out. Even Chris Collinsworth was saying, they've run
(13:11):
the same play about four different times at different formations
and it's just Rashi Rice isolated against a linebacker. Raschi
Riy is gonna win that every time of the day.
So if you're not gonna stop that, I'm gonna keep
doing it. If you're gonna leave Noah Gray uncovered over
the middle of the field, Justin Watson uncovered over middlefield,
I'm gonna throw them the ball. And now I've gotten
(13:33):
to a point where we've kind of gotten the drop
seats out of our system from last season, where I'm
much more confident in the guys we have going out there.
Xavier Worthy made the plays when he had opportunities, so
he didn't have to really make a point to get
Kelsey going like he normally would, because Andy Reid and
(13:54):
that offense, we're just getting his guys open. It didn't
matter that, you know, samaj p Ryan had almost as
many targets as Kelsey, Your Guysaya Pacheco had one less
target than Kelsey. Like, if they're gonna give him those opportunities,
He's a mature quarterback now and he doesn't have to
always be superman. He's gonna take what you give.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
I did notice the Chiefs run game twenty carries seventy
two yards. The only play that went longer than five
yards on the ground was the Worthy end around for
the touchdown. Pachecko's longest carry of fifteen was five yards.
Fifteen carries, the longest was five That's a little staggering,
but through the air, Rashi Rice had an explosive play
Worthy obviously the touchdown. Kelsey had one, Pachecko had one.
(14:37):
Justin Watson had won like Mahomes was spreading the ball around. Listen,
I'm kind of sick of the Chiefs, but it's easy
to watch Mahomes do his magic and dance around. Next week,
not bad Rob Bengals at Kansas City. That's not a
bad Week two game. That'll be the Marquee game at
(14:58):
four twenty five on CB. Yes, Chiefs Begles. Bengals will
be coming in one or oh after the win over
the Patriots. And let me segue at this point to
best bets, of which there are far too many for
Week one in the NFL, and a couple for college.
Speaker 1 (15:15):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live. The only thing better than sitting on your
couch watching the games is making money while you do it.
(15:35):
Here's your best bet.
Speaker 2 (15:38):
All right, let's hit up the best bets for the weekend.
I'm just gonna get college football out of the way early.
All I have is four plays. I know college football
went well last weekend. As of now, only four plays,
but they're simply fades of narratives. After last week, I'm
going against Notre Dame. I took Northern Illinois plus twenty
nine plus twenty eight. I don't know anything about Northern Illinois.
(16:02):
I'm sure they're gonna lose this football game. I just
think Notre Dame after a hard fought, huge win over
Texas A and M on the road, one of those
games where it's like, hey, we got to start this
season with a win. This game is everything to us.
Notre Dame pulls it out in the fourth quarter. Awesome victory. Right,
they probably lose focus a little bit, go home and
(16:24):
play a week. Northern Illinois team on deck is Perdue
next week. Perdue is not great by any stretch. They
won their first game forty nine nothing, that don't mean jack,
but they have a bye week. My guess is Notre
Dame really dials it back offensively, doesn't show a lot,
and gets out of there with probably, you know, twenty
one to three victory, something where they don't cover the spread.
(16:45):
I'm also doing that with Oregon, which looked very pedestrian
in its opener against the Idaho Vandals. I think it
was fourteen to nothing at halftime, and then they messed
around second half play with their food, and next thing
you know, it's a close game. Oregon did come close
to covering last week. They also started a walk on center.
I don't know if you guys saw that. Some of
(17:06):
the stuff I was reading on Oregon like, they kind
of sat two of their best defenders. They had them
play very limited snaps. Basically, they were treating like a
preseason game. Hey, we got bigger fish to fry. We're
gonna sit a bunch of guys. We're resting. We're not
gonna go all out, which I get Boise State though
coming off a big win. Some guys score six touchdowns.
Boise State gave up forty five points to Georgia Southern.
(17:27):
I don't know what you guys think the Ducks are
gonna do, but they're gonna put it on. So I
took Oregon minus nineteen and minus nineteen and a half.
These are the last two are a little tougher. Yes,
I want some skin in the game in Texas Michigan. Yes,
Texas is better. Are they more than a touchdown? Touchdown?
Speaker 1 (17:43):
Better?
Speaker 2 (17:44):
On the road? Again, don't overreact to what you saw
from Michigan last week. That's all I'll say. They weren't great.
It was a very vanilla scheme. It was tinkering and
putting nothing on tape. They'll be ready this week. Okay.
I know they lost a lot of guys, and I
don't think to the better team here. I think Texas
is the side. I don't think they're gonna cover.
Speaker 1 (18:04):
Now.
Speaker 2 (18:04):
Maybe maybe they absolutely blast Michigan and send them back
into the Stone Age with a thirty five point victory.
I gotta see that to believe it. Okay, By the way,
this game was posted all summer and it was like,
I believe I saw Texas minus four. So you're telling
me in a week based on one football game sixty minutes,
Texas looks great, Michigan looks average or weak, and we're
(18:26):
gonna bump up the line three points. I think the
public's coming in hand over fist on Michigan. Will I'm
sorry on Texas. I will gladly take seven and a
half on Michigan and the final one. And this stinks
because I really wanted to take Nebraska even when we
had Brad Powers on. You guys can go back and listen.
He's on the under on Colorado. I don't think Colorado
(18:47):
is a very good football team. They have a couple
awesome players, undeniable when this line opened. I was honestly expecting, Okay,
it'll probably be Nebraska by two or three, and I'll
take Nebraska. And then they open and it's Nebraska by
seven and a half. What really, Nebraska, all of us
(19:07):
Nebraska off one good game, hyping a quarterback. They're not
good defensively. They don't have a lot of talent. If
you look at the most high end talent, Colorado has
more than Nebraska. Now, Colorado doesn't have a lot of talent,
but neither does Nebraska. I just can see Colorado throwing
and throwing and throwing. They're probably gonna be trailing all game,
probably gonna be down twenty one at one point. But
Shador and Travis Hunter, they're not throwing in the towel,
(19:30):
and I expect them to keep chucking and duck in
and come in the back door. So I took Colorado
getting seven and a half. It's ugly. Listen fading Notre
Dame Colorado on the road, fading Texas Like these are
risky plays, but this is what college football is all
about week to week. All right, let's get to the NFL.
Speaker 1 (19:47):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (19:59):
Now listen again. These lines have been up for I
don't know, four or five months. Okay, they've been picked at.
There's not a ton of value out there, but I
can't really resist, and I do think, yeah, I think
that I have smarter takes them. What's out there on
certain games. I believe I can find some edges. Here's
what we got. So the biggest bet I have is
(20:20):
on Jack's Dolphins over forty nine. Everything I've researched. Both
defenses very bad, both secondaries, like really really bad. You're
talking about new defensive coordinator in Miami. It looks like
Jalen Ramsey may not even play. They're down like five starters, folks.
Jacksonville's gonna move the football in this game Miami. We
(20:44):
know they're going to torch Wattle Tyreek Hill. This offense
is gonna be a machine juggernaut. This to me screams
like forty thirty three, Dolphins, thirty eight thirty five, some
something high scoring. The only thing that could be a
wrinkle here. The only thing is if somehow there's this
(21:04):
big rain storm and I got family in Florida. I
know it rains there every freaking weekend. There's these power
storms for like ten minutes. Then it's fine. This game
and the Washington Tampa which we'll get to, could be
impacted by rain. So you could end up getting screwed
if it's a monsoon for an hour. Yeah, over is
not gonna be looking good. But I think McDaniel and
that offense, remember they've had all season, all off season.
(21:26):
McDaniel has to kind of rejigger the offense because remember
at the end of last season, defense started to slow
down Miami a little bit. They knew, hey, you got
to play press coverage and you got to get to
to a quick Okay, McDaniel, he's smart, he's out there,
he knows what's up. He's gonna be totally adjusting everything.
I anticipate a different look from this Miami offense. I
(21:48):
think he's still gonna be high octane. My gut tells
me this sail's over and hopefully there's no weather impacting it.
I also kind of lean Jags three and a half,
but I didn't bet it. Okay, let me buzz through
the rest of them. I went under twenty. That's low
in the first half for Raiders Chargers under twenty. The
(22:09):
logic here, this is a Chargers offense. If you if
you guys have Pro football focus, call it up and look,
the wide receiver one is back, their slot receiver is new,
their other receiver. It looks like they're gonna start Jerry
Rice's kid, who I think went in the seventh round.
He might be the other starter on the outside. You've
got a new tight end, You've got a new right
(22:29):
tackle to rookie and alt, You've got an all new backfield,
and you got justin Herbert Hobbold. I don't know what
to expect from the Chargers, but I did see that
the Chargers picked up like a three hundred pounds full back.
What do you think they're gonna use him for? Guys
like massive blocking, heavy dose of Dobbins and Gus the
bus Like I would not be surprised if they had
(22:51):
forty plus carries for the Chargers offense. And I just
expect this game to be played really tight in some
not quite in a phone booth. And we know the
Raider they've got one path to victory right defense and
run the football. They're not going to go and be
have Gardner Minshew dropping back thirty times. It's just not
happening unless they're training. So I anticipate a lot of
ugly football. The familiarity with the divisional matchups you guys
(23:14):
heard earlier in the week. Divisional dogs in week one
are a great play seventeen and four and I believe
the last ten or eleven years. I mean it's I
kind of like the Raiders. I'm not betting them because
I'm rooting Chargers, but I'm of the beliefs that this
is just a super low scoring game. So I got
under twenty in the first half. Raiders Chargers. I went
(23:39):
with let's see what else we got here. Two of
the bets I made in Vegas. One's probably dead. I
got Cardinals plus five and a half. Don't love that.
It's the numbers awful. It was at one moment cratering down.
Now it's back up to six and a half. It's
probably dead. I don't even know that. I mean, I
liked I bet it at five and a half, so
I guess at six and a half you could consider
taking it. Don't see a lot of stops here from Arizona.
(24:02):
But at the same time, I don't know how good
this Buffalo defense is. No Milano all new secondary Kyler,
who I have in one fantasy team, is going to
be jacking'. I anticipate a lot of points. I just
don't know if they will get enough Arizona to stay
within the number. The other one I have is Minnesota,
and I'm probably gonna take them in the contest at
the Giants Minnesota either one, one and a half two,
(24:26):
you could go money line. I don't believe in the
Giants at all. I know Dables calling plays now, which
kind of changes things and maybe makes you can smell
the desperation from the Giants, desperate times, desperate measures. Maybe
they come out, well, we got fource feed neighbors. Let's
ride this defensive front. But the Vikings have a good
defensive line. I think the Vikings should hold of at
(24:47):
Bay and then you get Justin Jefferson matched up on
the outside with a bad Giant secondary feels low scoring.
I just like I like the Vikings to win this.
I'll probably be on them in the contest. Others that
I have Saints Panthers, which is an ugly game that
absolutely nobody cares about. I have Panthers plus four Panthers
money line and over forty one. I know that's way
(25:08):
too heavy on a crap game. I feel like the
Panthers are undervalued. If you go back to our Adam
Turnoff discussion this summer, we had a great chat about
Carolina and how much better they are. They're improved on
the offensive line, defensive line despite losing Burn's massive, upgraded
head coach, better at wide receiver with Deontay Johnson. I
think all signs are pointing up for Carolina. Hey j
(25:31):
they can only go up after last year fair And
at the same time, you look at the Saints and
it's like, ooh, not trending good offensive line could be
the worst in the NFC, which is crazy. I didn't
realize it was that bad until you really start to
dig in. You're like, oh, okay, so they have a
lave and Taysom Hill's doing what Where's Taysom Hill? But
Alvin Kamara is what is Alvin Kamara looks kind of
(25:54):
sort of washed based on last year, and I don't know,
I don't want to say he's going down here like
Derek Henry, but these guys have been in the league
for a while taking punishment or running back. I don't
know where the Saints get weapons, but I do believe
Caroline is gonna come out surprise the hell out of them,
and the Saints are going to be forced to be
throwing it all over the field, and all of a
sudden we get in a bit of a slugfest. Be
(26:14):
careful on the total of the last seven in this
series have gone under, so you know, I got to
just put that out there. Another total I have under
forty one and Patriots Bengals don't know if Jamar Chase
is going to play. Patriots only have one path to victory,
Jacoby Brissett handing the football off and making safe checkdown throws.
Almost Lamar Jackson ash ooh, sorry, I went there offensively
(26:35):
I meant. And maybe the Bengals offense butters a little
bit without Chase and then they don't get to forty one.
Another game I'm probably too loaded up on is this
Washington Tampa game, which could be played in the monsoon.
We'll see again Tampa weather in September. It's hurricane season
in Florida. I'd got Washington getting three and a half
Washington money line, and I took the over forty four.
Speaker 1 (27:00):
I don't know.
Speaker 2 (27:01):
Maybe it's because Jayden Daniels looks kind of like with
his mannerisms and the way he runs and throws a
little like RG three, And I remember how RG three
was just such a force right out again in that offense,
so totally different draft. I made a point to draft
scary Terry McLaurin. I have a feeling this Washington defense,
oh sorry, offense with Cliff Kingsbury could put up points Washington.
(27:21):
They're gonna have to because the Washington defense is abysmal.
Outside of the front four, the cornerbacks are awful, and
I do believe they could have trouble stopping Baker Mayfield.
This feels like a thirty twenty seven type game where
out of the blue, it's a barn burner and there's
points on points on points and the overcashes and I'm
just hoping Washington can can kind of come in the
(27:43):
back door there, let's see. Obviously, Seattle was probably my
biggest bet this summer, but that was at five as
soon as bo Nix was announced as a starter. Then
it went to five and a half, then it went
to six. I'm sure we talked about reverse line movement.
You guys know what that is. Reverse line movement is
all over this one big time. The public is betting Denver.
(28:04):
They like Sean Payton, they like bow Knicks, they like
bo Nix's experience in college. They think Denver's a by low.
The sharp betters are all over Seattle because of McDonald,
their defensive court, the defensive coordinator for Baltimore who comes
to Seattle, the offensive coordinator gets an influx no more
than Pete Carroll. Run the football and play defense. That's
(28:27):
what Pete Carroll wanted to do. The new OC comes
from Washington Grubb and he did like all three wide
receiver sets. So Jackson Smith the jig, but which he
had like an underwhelming rookie year only because he didn't
play as much as everybody expected. It seems like he's
gonna be on the field all the time now, so
I made a point to draft him in fantasy. So
it feels like with that high octane offense, and Patrick
(28:49):
Shurtan is probably gonna get stuck on DK or Patrick
or Sirtan's gonna just try to lock down one side
of the field. So Lockett and or JSN could eat.
I just I think this is a Seattle rump. Seattle
has been, as you guys know, from my haircut incident
with with the herd last two years ago. I've got
to be very yeah, two years ago, I got to
(29:10):
be very careful with the Seahawks. Sometimes I just don't
understand them. I did put a little bet on them
at plus six eighty eight to win the NFC West. Listen,
I'm not gonna talk too much about this McCaffrey stuff,
but did you guys see they added to the injury
report on Thursday not only his calf, but it's his
achilles and it's like cheese, Trent williams ayuk McCaffrey, I
(29:35):
do things are looking a little rickety in San Franz.
I'll just leave it at that. At any rate, we'll
do that on Monday. But yeah, so Seattle kind of
sort of bullet show on what else do we have here?
Is that it that might oh oh, Colts plus three
and Colts I think I said that Colts plus three
Colts money line against the Texans. It's a risky play.
(29:57):
It's as strictly I'm not a trend better as you
guys know. But trends can rear their head in Week
one Divisional Dogs. There's three of them, and we've talked
about them shockingly, Raiders, Panthers, and Colts, and it just
it strikes me as odd that there was all this
Super Bowl momentum for the Houston Texans and all of
(30:20):
a sudden you start to look back to the end
of last season when it was Houston Indy for a
spot in the playoffs, and oh wow, Indy with Gardner
Minshew was like, right in the game, they just the
kid dropped a fourth down pass. I think I talked
about that this week where it was Cowherd's birthday party
or whatever, and Chip Kelly was there and he's like, oh, yeah,
they're gonna do this that, and it was like almost
(30:41):
exactly happened, and it's like, huh so, now Houston and
what was a touch and go game in Indy. Houston
has to go back there, and it's like we have
a healthy Anthony Richardson and you know, Shane Steike in
year two in the offense, like I know, there's a
world here. And by the way, Stichen I remember they
(31:02):
went down I think it was twenty one nothing to
the Rams and then storm back. This team will not quit,
and I know everybody loves the Texans. They're gonna be good.
We had David Baker on who said, I think he
has the Texans in the super Bowl. They might make
it there. But you just look at this Colts team
and this number, and I don't know. I just can't
you get in three at home in a divisional matchup.
I gotta take that. And then I took money line
(31:22):
just for the hell of it. So those are the plays.
If I add any on ig you can follow me
on Instagram. I'll put some more on stories. Folks, I'm excited.
You don't want to shoot your wad opening weekend, but man,
it is. It's like when you go to Vegas to
party the first night. Everybody goes hard because they're so
amped up and so excited to be there, and it's like, oh, okay,
(31:43):
I have nothing left for the rest. Don't be that
guy when it comes to NFL bet So, enjoy Week
one and we'll be back here on Monday. Talk to
you then.
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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