August 15, 2025 • 35 mins
On today’s episode, Jason is joined by Sharp Football Analysis founder Warren Sharp. During the interview, Sharp discusses why it feels like a smart bet to take the under on the Detroit Lions projected win total, the chances that both the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos wind up winning their respective divisions, why JJ McCarthy could actually have more of an impact on the Minnesota Vikings defense than their offense, why he's taking the over on Justin Fields rushing props, what makes Russell Wilson arguably the best quarterback of the Brian Daboll era in New York, and much more!
Follow Jason on Twitter and Instagram. Click here to subscribe, rate and review all of the latest Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre podcasts!
#FSR
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up straight Fire or FAYM. It's me Jason
McIntyre Straight Fire for Friday, August the fifteenth. As I
mentioned yesterday, I'll be hosting her today only one hour,
though only one hour TV. I don't believe it's on radio.
That would be another host and a programming note also
(00:31):
mentioned yesterday. No podcast next week, last respite of summer
before oh, Fantasy Survivor gambling weekly Sundays. I mean, guys, listen,
I know some of you are like, oh, Jay, you
vacation a lot.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Just stop. You know, we have a pop.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
There's actually, well it's an unwritten rule kind of in
sports media, not just Fox or ESPN, but like you
can't take vacations in the fall, Like you can't. I mean,
it's a great time to travel because the summer crowds
are gone, but September through the Super Bowl, I can't.
There's like no days off. And I think the smart
(01:13):
move is at the end of August power down, get
one last.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
You know.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I saw something online about something called a forest bath
where you basically I mean it's essentially hiking but going
in the forest and just chilling out. You don't have
to do it for a night or two days or anything,
just to walk around and distress and all that fun stuff.
So it'll be it'll be a busy, fun week for me,
and then we'll return the final week of August. I'll
(01:39):
be hosting the Herd with a new special guest, Alex Curry,
as everybody knows, had a baby, So it'll be me
and someone I won't be name now, but it should
be fun. And what's also interesting is that's like the
final week, the final week of August is leads up
(01:59):
to Ohio State versus Texas and then the following weeknd's
NFL and then we're off and it's honestly locked in
for seventeen weeks.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Plus the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
As my wife likes to remind me, you know, her
birthday is during the NFL season, and it's tough for
your boy to get away at any rate. We have
a great podcast today to bring you into the little
week off of Straight Fire, and it's with Warren Sharp,
(02:33):
who is really really good and he offered, actually, this
is kind of cool.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
So his book is incredible.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
You can get the digital copy, and he actually offered
a really awesome kind of deal. One dollar if you
use code Fire for his digital copy of his book.
It's like an incredible preview, and I'd suggest getting it.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
I got it.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
I've gone through it. Obviously. I start with the Jets
and work backward. But yeah, it's pretty cool. And you
guys are like Warren Sharp's insight.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
We kind of sort of agree on some stuff.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
He's a little lower on one or two teams than
I am and I'm higher in one. But otherwise, enjoy it.
We'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live. You know, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports
fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a
(03:35):
guy who does.
Speaker 5 (03:36):
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
All right, let's welcome back to straight Fire, one of
the foremost NFL voices out there. Gambling is his thing,
building models. His previews are spectacular and must read.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
Warren Sharp, Warren, how you doing.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Man, I'm doing great best time of the year to
be talking ball my opinion, because we've got a little
taste of the preseason. Two more games left to go
for each of these teams, but we can start talking
about preseason. We have a little bit better at picture
as to how these teams are going to perform. So
it's a great time to be a football fan. And
I'm certainly happy to have the book writing process in
(04:17):
the rearview mirror and not have to worry about that
right now, because that is an absolute nightmare to put
together each year. But it's a lot of fun when
it's over.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
Yeah, I'm looking at it right now.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
I see it as five hundred and eighty six pages,
so more And basically you don't get a summer, do you.
Speaker 5 (04:34):
I don't know. And the thing is, I have very
high standards for myself when I'm writing this each year,
because I know that a lot of important people read it,
including people in front offices, including people on the analytics
departments of various different teams. Some of them ask me
for hard copies, some of them just want a complimentary PDF.
So like I'm supplying it to those teams, I every
(04:56):
year put very high standards on myself to come up
with in sites that most other people aren't already discussing,
or the real reason why I think these teams performed
well or poorly last year and how I think they're
going to do this year. So we start working on
it in late February, and then this year I came
out with it at the very end of June. So
(05:18):
it's a lot of work, but it really helps me
get set up for the season and has given me
some success from for like a future's betting perspective as well.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
Yeah, I mean, listen, I gotta say some of the
stuff in here, the schedules and the drafts, like these
are breakdowns that are everywhere. So I do want to
start with a team. They're interesting, the Detroit Lions. So
you have them as having the third hardest schedule in
the league. It looks brutal, but there are elements of
it that are super beneficial. And again, I think the
(05:49):
larger discussion you know on box, ESPN everywhere is like, oh,
lines are going to regress, they lost their OC and
DC period, and that's where a lot of people stop.
But your depth on their schedule and how yeah, the
schedule is tougher Detroit, But like the Bears, Bengals, Chiefs, Steelers,
and Eagles are playing them on Monday Night the week before,
(06:11):
so that's a huge edge for the Lions. Do you
actually think is there a worl where the Lions are
a little underrated Warren coming into the season.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
It really, to me just depends on what we're going
to get and we didn't get the chance to see
it yet from John Morton with these starters, I'm just
so fascinated, Jason by how much play action they're going
to incorporate into the season because it really made a
big difference for the passing attack. Like we know that
they lost a little bit on the offensive line, but
and that's going to impact the wrong game. That could
(06:40):
impact the passing game as well. But the real key
for me is just the strategy, the play calling. How
are they going to execute They're going to be aggressive
on fourth down, which is going to give them an edge,
we already know that, but how are they calling these plays?
How are they sequencing in these plays? With John Morton,
there's been a lot of negativity surrounding the Lions. Obviously
most of the offseason they were or the Darlings entering
(07:01):
last year. I was on there over last year, a
lot of people were, and they won fifteen games, made
us look like geniuses. But not very many people are
willing to take stabs on there over this year or
really be supportive of the Detroit Lions, even though they're
still a very good team. We just know collectively from
watching this happened to Philadelphia Eagles. When you lose both
coordinators and both sides of the ball have to replace them,
(07:23):
you're promoting some people, either internally or from outside the
building who aren't like big name guys like John Morton.
I don't know how many teams really we've got to
get John Morton to call offense for us, right, So
I just feel like that is going to be a
big question mark. But for sure you mentioned it on
the schedule side of things, Like if you're looking at
division bets for the NFC North, who's going to win
(07:45):
that division? Keep in mind that I look at a
statistic called net games with rest edge, so it's you know,
the Lions have eight, which is the most I've ever
tracked in my database. The Lions play eight games this
year where they have more rest than their opponent. They
only play one game Week four against the Cleveland Browns
where they have less rest than their opponent, so they're
plus seven. They have seven games with a rest edge.
(08:07):
There's not a single other team in the entire North
that has a single game with a rest edge. Net overall,
the Green Bay Packers are at zero vikings minus two,
Bears at minus three, so that is inevitably going to
help the Detroit Lions. Of course, they play the third
toughest overall schedule. That's not going to be easy either,
So to it's interesting because a lot of people are
(08:28):
giving the Packers love.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
Now this is before the Jordan Love situation here.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
I think he's gonna be fine, but you know, the
injury narrative around him is getting interesting. The Packers seem
to be getting a lot of Super Bowl love.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Are you buying that?
Speaker 5 (08:41):
By the way, I think the Packers are a really
interesting team because I really liked what their defensive coordinator
did with them last season in his first year in
the building, Jeff Hafley, and I think they're talented on
that side of the ball, and then you look at
the offensive side of the ball. They had the number
one highest drop rate of any team in the NFL
(09:04):
last year in terms of the EPA that was lost.
In terms of players with receiver error, it was the
worst rate for any quarterback since twenty twenty one. Was
the receiver err that the Green Bay Packers' receivers were
delivering to Jordan Love? And then keep in mind that
Jordan Love was injured for over half the season. Now,
(09:25):
he was a warrior, he played through it. That impacted
his statistics. But when he was healthy and playing within
this offense, especially with Josh Jacobs out there running the football,
this team was extremely good. But the fact of the
matter is Jordan Love played through a lot of injuries
last year. So Jordan Love doesn't get the national recognition
(09:45):
for being a very elite quarterback. And I don't know
that I would consider him to be an elite quarterback,
but I do think he possesses a lot of factors
that are elevators for a football team, and they're going
to help the Green Bay Packers win games. So it's
a matter of like, I think they're definitely making the playoffs,
and at that point in time, it's just what's the
(10:06):
draw that they're going to get. How many games might
they get at home? Do they have to be the
team that goes to Philadelphia and play the Eagles on
the road in the postseason. Like, there's a lot of
factors that are going to play into that, but I
certainly think they're worth being in the discussion of being
the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Every year, people love to pick these underdogs. We know,
the worst to first.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Story happens every year in the NFL. There's like two
or three or four new playoff teams, maybe more than that.
If you take both conferences, I'm taking a flyer on
like Denver winning the division, Atlanta winning the division. In
reading your preview, it doesn't appear as if you agree
with either of those.
Speaker 5 (10:47):
Well, I actually really like both of those teams. You know,
the Atlanta Falcons, there's in my opinion, a lot to like.
And I was, you know, I work with a lot
of guys behind the scenes, talk to them about some
the bets, work with some of the betting groups, and
I pitched the Atlanta Falcons as a team that I
thought has a higher ceiling than most other people. Obviously,
(11:10):
their win total is only seven and a half. I
don't think that a lot of people realize when they like,
just look at the Falcons and what they did last year,
and this is in the preview that they I think
Zach Robinson did a brilliant job managing that roster and
that offense. You know, he's coming into this thing thinking
(11:31):
that Kirk Cousins might be okay. They don't know when
Kirk Cousins is coming back from this Achilles injury. Kirk
Cousins shows up, he can't do anything in the pocket,
like he remember that Week one game against the Steelers.
The dude is a statue taking every step from shotgun,
not moving get rid of the ball. All of a sudden,
you know, Zach Robinson's like, crap, we have to pivot.
We have to make a bunch of changes here to
(11:52):
the offense that I wanted to utilize because now I'm
dealing with Kirk Cousins. And yet they still performed fine
last season in my opinion. Obviously, Kirk Cousins threw away
a lot of games late in the fourth quarter with
a bunch of interceptions. You got Michael Pennick Junior. That's
one of the biggest questions on offense, just his downfield accuracy,
(12:12):
his performance under pressure, Like how great of a quarterback,
can he be? The O line, though, is solid, The
receiving court is solid. Obviously we know the tight end
question marks, but the running back corps is solid, So
I have confidence in all those other levels. The biggest
pushback I got on the Falcons was their defense might
(12:33):
be the worst defense in the NFL. Personnel wise, their
defense might be the worst defense in the NFL. If
that ends up not being the defense is viewed as
a very poor defense and they're playing a brutal schedule.
I show them playing the third toughest increase in difficulty
for any defense in terms of the offenses that they're
(12:54):
going to play, of any team in the NFL. They
played the twenty fifth easiest schedule last year to play
the seventh toughest schedule this year. But if you go
around and like rank the front seven specifically, my staff
ranked the Atlanta Falcons front seven and literally ranked them
dead last in the NFL. So if you disagree with that,
(13:15):
then that obviously boosts the Falcons and should give you
even more confidence because I think their offense is good.
They've got a top seven offensive line, number three best
running back corps, top eleven receiving Corps quarterback is unknown.
If Pennix is fine and you think the defense isn't
one of the worst in the NFL, absolutely the Falcons
are worth a you know, long shot flyer in terms
(13:37):
of doing something in the postseason, but certainly winning that
NFC South, which I think there's a couple of teams
that could win that. I think that there's one that
certainly will not is the New Orleans Saints. But yeah, yeah, yeah,
Well the Denver Broncos. I like the Denver Broncos a lot.
I like the Broncos a lot. The tough part for them,
(14:00):
of course, their schedule. But we know that Bonnicks exceeded
expectations last year. We know that they've figured out a
way to manage him really well. They had one of
the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL last year.
Javonte Williams made it look a lot worse than it
really was. They've replaced him with RJ. Harvey. I'm not
getting the right vibes in camp though about RJ. Harvey
(14:21):
that I thought I was going to get. So that's
still a question mark. But they did bring in you know,
another running back there that is JK. Dobbins, obviously who
should be able to help in the run game, even
if Harvey takes a little while to come around. But
I'm fine with their receiving corps. Like, I think this
is a really good team and they might have the
best defense in the entire NFL. So I like a
(14:41):
lot about the Denver Broncos, and I'm certainly not selling them.
I'm certainly not taking their under, but they've just gotten,
you know, propped up like the New England Patriots have,
like where it's like, how much upside is there in
these futures because there's already a lot of love for
this team in the current marketplace.
Speaker 4 (14:59):
Interesting. Let me go back to the Falcons real quick.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
So they bring on a new DC and olbricked the
guy from the Jets, and I thought they kind of
had a decent offseason. I know people think they overpaid
in the draft to trade up and get Piers, but
he's flashed in camp. You've got Floyd, who's a new addition.
I like Jaylon Walker, Jesse Bates, one of the best
safeties in the league. You got me scared with this defense, man,
(15:25):
I was gonna hammer the over. I have them potentially
as like the number one seed in the NFC. Given
that schedule, is there a world where maybe the Falcons
win twelve, Eagles pull back and nobody there's no fourteen
to fifteen win teams like last year.
Speaker 5 (15:40):
Well, it's interesting when you look at the top six
easiest schedules this year in the NFL, two of them
are from the NFC South, the Falcons and the Saints.
Then you've got the forty nine ers who are just
getting riddled with injuries. And we know that the forty
nine ers, they tend to always be good unless they've
got injuries, and that's the only time when they've struggled.
(16:02):
If but they're already being bitten by the injury bug.
I think you've got the Jags and the Bills and
the Patriots who are over there in the AFC. We
don't have to worry about them for the purpose of
this discussion. The thing that I did like about the
Falcons was that they knew what their weakness was and
addressed it in the draft. Like you mentioned, they go
defense pick one, defense pick two. They moved up defense
pick three with the safety, defense pick four with the safety.
(16:24):
Like all the four of their first round, first four
draft picks, were on the defensive side of the football,
including two in the first round. They know what their
weakness is, They've made moves to address it. The issue is,
like I think they can definitely battle in that division.
The question is what happens outside of that division with
some of the offenses they're going to play. But here's
(16:45):
the positive you've got. I was just looking at this literally,
I was on a conference call right before we talked
about the possibility of us moving on over seven and
a half and the benefit of playing the La Rams
in week seventy. The talk of the town and this
is out in your backyard, so you might know better
about Matthew Stafford, but is that you know, it's still
(17:07):
a little bit concerning that he's not out there practicing
right now, but the fact that most of these people
think he could start the season, But then how much
time is he going to be there? When's he going
to get knocked out? Well, if you don't play the
Rams until week seventeen, like you might not be getting
Matthew Stafford at that point in the season. So that's
a positive for you. And so that's one thing I
think could help the the Falcons a little bit from
(17:32):
a scheduling perspective as well. So I don't mind the
over seven and a half there, but I.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
Mean seven and a half feels so low.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
I'm looking.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
Well, they do have to face Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels early.
We just don't know what's up with JJ McCarthy in Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
I don't know, we.
Speaker 5 (17:49):
Don't know, we don't know. Yeah, we don't know about
JJ McCarthy. We don't know about the Indianapolis Colts. Like
who's going to be that quarterback? Which is another team
that the Atlanta Falcons are going to play outside of
their division. Look, Minnesota, I love what they've done with
the offensive line to help shore things up, and certainly
they're going to go through an identity change with a
(18:10):
younger quarterback in there. The thing that I like about
what they're probably going to be doing with the young
quarterback is they've got one of the best play callers
and offensive minds in the NFL in terms of Kevin O'Connell.
The way that he's going to try to make life
easy is going to be very valuable. The key to
them though, as if I'm not mistaken, I'm scrolling through
(18:32):
my preview here, they jumped out to leads in games
last year, unlike most teams in the NFL. And what
that allowed that Brian Floores defense to do is really
stay creative, pin your ears back, make life difficult on
opposing quarterbacks if you are not aggressive with JD. McCarthy
early in the games, like you might have been a
(18:52):
little bit more with Sam Donald and Sam Donald through
a lot of some people don't like the terminology, but
interceptible pass last year that did not get turnover, but
they were turnover worthy. If you don't get those plays
from JJ McCarthy, if he's not pushing the ball down
the field, if you're not scoring points as easily early on,
that's going to make life more difficult for this defense
(19:15):
of the Minnesota Vikings, which is a very talented unit.
And yeah, as I look at it, the Minnesota Vikings
last year scored the number two most points in the
second quarter of any team in the NFL, the second
most points in the first quarter of any team in
the NFL. They led at halftime by the fifth largest margin.
That just makes life so much easier on your defense
(19:35):
and keeps things creative for your play caller. If Kevin
O'Connell isn't aggressing enough, aggressive enough early in games, They're
not going to be playing with leads as much. Then
there's going to be more pressure on JJ McCarthy to
throw the ball in known passing situations in the second half,
and it's going to make more difficult on the defense
as well. So that's the biggest thing for me is
(19:55):
just I trust the coaching and I'm good with the personnel.
How aggressive is he willing to get and how successful
are they going to be early in these games some
of the game scripts that come into play here so
that they can build these quick leads, And that's the
biggest question, and I'm not sure I haven't answered to
you yet for the vikings.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
Regarding your gambling chatter with these groups, so we hit
on the Falcons anything any action on first coach fired.
I know Brian Dable is going to be popular, although
some people are backing off now that what's his face?
Dart looks good, But what about Mike McDaniel in Miami.
Do you think there's a world where they run him
mid season, Because I mean, again, I don't want to
read too much into a preseason disaster of a practice,
(20:49):
but apparently they got boat raced in a scrimmage against
someone and it was like the worst scrimmage at Miami
just looked ill prepared. McDaniel at the podium is starting
to kind of grab and say, weird stuff.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
What's the vibe you're hearing around the Dolphins?
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Yeah, you know. Here, here's the thing. I honestly went
back Jason after I saw them struggle at the goal
line and this was I was sharing some of this
on social today. I saw them struggle at the goal
line in the first preseason game and they ran three
times and got stuffed each time and turned the ball over.
It's against the Chicago Bears, And so I went back
(21:24):
and I started watching how they're running out a heavier personnel,
and then I saw that they were the worst team
in the NFL running the football in short yardage situations
last year. In fact, they were the stuff the most
frequently of any rushing attack since twenty nineteen. Is what
the Dolphins offense was doing last year. Even though they
had a Chane who was like great the year before,
this team was struggling a ton last year. And then
(21:45):
I started looking into the personnel groupings that they were utilizing.
And short story, because this could go on for ten minutes.
Be just discussing this because I love talking about this
type of thing. They used the number one highest rate
of runs with a full back out on the field
in short yardage and it's They're at like forty three percent.
The league average is six percent. No other team, there's
only one other team above eighteen percent. But when they
(22:07):
stick that fullback out on the field, they run at
such a high rate in the short yard of situations,
they're telegraphing to the defense, we're going to be running.
You know what the defense is doing on those runs.
They play with seven plus main boxes ninety five percent
of the time.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Wow.
Speaker 5 (22:20):
The Dolphins, as a result, cannot move them because their
O line isn't talented enough. It's the cheapest offensive line
in the NFL, and it impacts their ability to gain
first downs, which is why they get stuffed so much
because their backs aren't big bruisers. But when they ran
with the same offensive line with the same running backs
over the last two years out of eleven personnel, three
wide receivers, spreading the field a little bit more. The
(22:42):
defense is playing with light boxes on only thirty one
percent of those downs, and they have more success running
the football. They were the number one most efficient team
running the football out of three wide receiver sets in
short yardage. And this isn't something Acidine like no teams do.
In fact, the Rams, the Falcons, and the Bucks all
run from short yardage with three wide receivers out on
(23:04):
the field above sixty percent of the time, some above
eighty percent of the time. So I think the Miami
Dolphins need to tweak some things here. And this is
just pure coaching, but it gets to the overall point
that you're making is just like, do we actually still
have confidence in Mike McDaniel to understand once it was
so novel what he brought to the table in when
he first started there with two and they have to
(23:27):
bring they have to get the ball out into his
hands so quickly because the O line is falling apart.
Last year, they weren't pushing the ball down the field
in the passing attack because they were I think Mike
McDaniel was worried about Tool getting another concussion on his watch,
and he didn't want to be responsible for having a
guy who's playing behind a battle line. They already know that,
and two is just holding the football. So it's all
this underneath stuff to the tight ends and the running backs,
(23:48):
and it's just not productive enough. So there's gonna have
to be I'll tell you this, Like there's been most seasons,
Mike McDaniel comes in with like something new, like to
start the year, we saw the short motion one year.
They're gonna have to come out with something this year
because if they come with the same similar offense that
they brought last year, I agree, the offense is going
to struggle and everybody's gonna probably blame it on Mike McDaniel.
(24:13):
And so that's definitely a recipe for disaster. But it's
hard for me to look. I think drafting the quarterback
for the New York Giants does buy Brian da ball.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
Really.
Speaker 5 (24:25):
I think I think drafting that quarterback does buy him time.
I don't know when they're going to stick darted. I
actually think that Russell Wilson is going to look much
better in this offense for the Giants than any other
quarterback that Brian Dable has worked with in New York,
other than you know since he came to New York,
since Buffalo, because Russell Wilson works a lot better throwing
(24:45):
from spread personnel. He works a lot better throwing to
wide receivers. And that's what the Giants use at high
rates is eleven personnel, a lot of wide receiver targets.
When he was in Pittsburgh and before that in Denver,
which is the two stops since Seattle where he's looked terrible,
those two teams use a lot of heavy personnel and
throw lots of tight ends and backs, and that's just
(25:06):
not really where he has his strength. The biggest issue, though,
is going to be the protection up front with that
offensive line. He is horrible under pressure. He thinks he's
the young guy that he once was in Seattle. He's
not the young guy. Happens to all of us. He's
terrible under pressure. He can't be scrambling around trying to
evade defenders. He's just got to figure out a way
to get rid of the football. That could drive Brian
(25:27):
daball nuts. But let's face it, it's still not going
to be worse than the quarterbacks stay Ball has been
working with over the last several years. So I think
Dable's got a little bit of a lifeline with the
Jackson Dark Draft pick. I could be wrong, but Mike McDaniel,
you know something's got to change for Miami, and has
got to change early in the season.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
I wouldn't be a real Jets fan if I didn't
ask your thoughts on the Aaron Glenn Higher Justin Fields
at quarterback. It just feels like a bit of a
stop gap before they get Arch Manning or someone you
know can actually be a Franchisecoa Bank.
Speaker 5 (26:01):
Well, I'll tell you I took Justin fields rushing yards
over which I definitely think is a good bet. It
assumes his health, right, But.
Speaker 4 (26:09):
Wait, you could bet his season total rushing yards.
Speaker 5 (26:12):
Yes, you can. I took it. I'm gonna try to
figure it out here future. I took it at I
don't know what it is right now.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
I mean, I guess the risk there Warren is that,
like you know, he gets hurt.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
Six twenty five yeah, six five yards. There was a quote,
I think it was today I saw on Twitter where
somebody asked a team that was practicing against the Jets.
What do you feel about Justin Fields as a quarterback
going up against in the last two days, And he said,
I really can't tell you what I feel about him
(26:50):
as a quarterback because he spent most of the practice
running around with the football trying to evade the pass rush.
And that's exactly what I sort of think is going
to happen, and that's going to heed to a lot
of these rushing attempts. Last year, we saw how many
times did you see Aaron Rodgers dropping back just dumping
the ball off to Breis Hall underneath because he was
trying to get rid of the ball quickly because the
(27:12):
pass rush wouldn't hold up longer if he's trying to
take long dropbacks. And that's one of the things self
preservation mode that Aaron Rodgers has gone into at this
latter stage of his career. He's trying to get rid
of the ball super quickly. That is the biggest delta
for any quarterback change in the NFL is Justin Field's
time to throw versus Aaron Rodgers time to throw. Aaron
(27:33):
Rodgers is one of the fastest in the NFL. Justin
Field is one of the slowest. In the NFL. He
had the highest rate of pass attempts thrown after three
seconds of any quarterback in the NFL last year. And
it's been a bugaboo every place that he's been. In
Chicago he started in twenty twenty one number six longest
time to throw, the next year number three, longest time
(27:53):
to throw, the next year, number one, longest time to throw,
and in Pittsburgh number four, longest time to throw. This
is a feature, not a bug. It's going to be
something that's going to come to New York. It's going
to be very different than what Aaron Rodgers is doing
behind that offensive line. As a result, I just think
there's going to be a lot of pressure on Justin
Fields in the pocket. It's going to force him to
(28:15):
then scramble with the football and run with the football.
And he's different than like a Baker Mayfield or some
of these other types of quarterbacks that will run out
of bounds after getting a first down. Like I think
Justin Fields is playing for his career. He's been given
another lifeline here by the Jets. He is. That's why
I miss like what one practice with his toe injuries.
Right back out there, he's taking this very seriously, as
(28:37):
he should. I think he's going to be a gamer.
I think it's one of his best attributes. I love
the upside that comes from a running quarterback. I think
he's going to be scrambling all over the field. I'm
curious to see how that defense holds up because they
have better talent than what Detroit's defense had, and Aaron
Glenn's got a unique style. I mean, they would be
(28:58):
The thing they remember about this d defense in Detroit
is that Detroit blitz at one of the highest rates
in the NFL. They had a great pressure rate, but
could not get any sacks. For some reason, they were
not registering any sacks at all. He called the defense,
and they were getting after quarterback but couldn't sack them.
If that regresses positively in New York for the Jets
(29:20):
and they're getting after the quarterback and recording those sacks,
those could change the game. I mean, sacks are absolute
drive killers for opposing offenses. That could definitely make life
a lot easier on justin fields. I just don't have
a lot of confidence in his ability as a pocket
passing quarterback to get the ball out on time and
to raise the ceiling of this team. But I'll tell
(29:41):
you I still didn't see enough to make me want
to fade the Jets and bet they're under. So I've
bet nothing on the New York Jets. Right now. I
would probably lean to the under, but I liked Justin
Field's rushing yards over and to that point. Injuries obviously
the number one concern if you're betting a player prop over,
But in Justin Field's case, he just needs this so
(30:03):
badly for the rest of his career that I think
he's not going to be the type of guy who's
just gonna sit out and give it a couple of
extra weeks. He'll get out there as early as possible,
and I think he goes over six to twenty five
minut interesting.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
So I didn't even realize in his second year in
Chicago he had eleven hundred yards rushing and then six
fifty seven the following seasons, And you're right, you know,
the Jets model were probably could be, Hey, let's do
what they did in Pittsburgh. We got a really good defense,
Let's get after the quarterback, keep it close.
Speaker 4 (30:33):
And not make mistakes.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
So Justin we don't want you throw in a ton
we want you handing off.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
By the way, what's the latest with breecee Ho Hall.
You know Breese Hall, Garrett Wilson. Are they vibing with
Fields or not?
Speaker 1 (30:44):
Really?
Speaker 4 (30:45):
I know Wilson knows him from Ohio State.
Speaker 5 (30:48):
Yeah, Garrett Wilson has said nothing but positive things about
Justin Fields. The big issue with Breece Hall is just
like he feels disrespected because he doesn't get it. He
does another contract. He's going into a free Agenciason after this, obviously,
and they have two young guys that they brought in
last year. Breishall got more playing time than them, but
(31:09):
both of these guys now are coming along a little
bit more, and so they're probably going to be incorporated
more into this offense. And so the question is just
like how much work is there to go around if
you aren't winning games, and you might need to have
Justin Fields drop back to pass a little bit more
because game script reasons, you're not going to have as
many rushing attempts. I agree with you that they probably
(31:30):
are going to come out intent on trying to run
the football. The question is just like how long throughout
the course of a game can they do that? If
they are trailing, and so Breese Hall he's just gonna
have to come out there and make the most of
his opportunities. And the thing is then the leave it
into the offensive coordinator in the play caller's hands, and
the head coach is to who then gets the reps
(31:51):
and moves up the depth chart in the running back
room in the pecking order there and getting some of
those opportunities. Who comes out week one, two, three and
plays the best. And so there's a lot of questions
in the running back room because Braylen Allen is somebody
who a lot of people are high on as well.
So I think they've got a good stable of backs.
But one thing I know is that you saw a
(32:13):
lot of receiving yards from Breecee Hall, and they don't
have Bressee Hall line for receiving yards yet. But if
I could bet an under on Breeze Hall of season
receiving yards, I probably would if that is based at
all on last year's numbers, because he's not just mobile
quarterbacks like that actually raised the floor of the running
back that they're working with from a rushing perspective because
(32:34):
of all the read options and things that they can
do on the ground, but they definitely lower the floor
in terms of targeting those running backs out of the backfield.
Aaron Rodgers throwing all left and right to Breeshall, that's
not happening this year, and so I would be looking
to bet the under on Brishall receiving yards if they
line that before the season starts.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Man, I don't know who does more homework than you.
By the way, I love the positional spending. I mean
that was an absolutely great nugget. Miami as the cheapest
ole line in the league. Jets are up there. I
do know that that's for sure a lot of young guys.
But Ward Sharp obviously go grab his football preview.
Speaker 4 (33:05):
It's tremendous. Great reading here. With two weeks left, warn
are you going to be entering any of those Vegas contests?
Speaker 5 (33:10):
You know, I am probably going to focus a little
bit on the you can bet the regular season wins
at the Westgate contest where you can go through all
thirty two teams and bet the over or under on
the season wins. And it's a I don't know how
many years they've been doing that contest, but that's definitely
something that's right up my alley having researched all of
(33:31):
the teams, and it's something that you don't have to
worry about during the course of the season. Now, during
the course of the season, most of the players and
I've been in those contests for several years. One year
I finished twenty first when they paid off the top
twenty And you know, there's definitely some opportunity. It's a
lot of work to if you're trying to finish high,
but a lot of variance goes into the people that
(33:53):
end up winning that. I like this season win contest.
I'm starting to dig into that a little bit more.
What's the buy and you know, I want to say
it was like only like four hundred or.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Oh that's not back six, No, I wonder if, yeah,
if it's that cheap, I'm sure people will do multiple entrants,
and I would it would You should humor me, and well,
I should humor myself and just go enter and just
pick thirty two unders as one entry, and then thirty
two overs is the next entry, just for fun, just
(34:23):
to see what happens, just that I want to blow fast.
Speaker 5 (34:26):
That's yeah, No, I actually I could be wrong. It
might only be two hundred dollars to enter, but like
there were there weren't that many people that entered it
last year. I want to say the number was around
two hundred entrant. So you actually have a decent shot
at winning it because there's not a massive lot of
people who know about this contest, and I think it's
I think it's a lot of fun and you don't
have to worry about it once the season starts. In
(34:48):
terms of trying to come up with additional selection, I
do I do want to throw out there, you know,
my my twenty twenty five football preview, if you go
to sharp dot football, I'm giving that away for you
guys for one dollar if you enter the code five
obviously for one dollars name for one dollar. Because it's
getting close to the start of the season, and it
is five hundred and eighty six pages. There's thirty two
(35:09):
team chapters. But somebody's not gonna be able to sit
here and digest it nearly as well at this point
in time as they would have if they bought it
in July first. So it's only one dollar. I can
tell you it's the best dollar that you'll spend on
football analysis to help you get ready for the season,
so use the coupon code fire and awesome.
Speaker 4 (35:25):
Thanks a lot, Warren. That's great stuff, man. One dollar Yeah, no, no,
I'm digging into it. And you know i'd like to
take a week off late in August. I'm taking one soon.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
I'll be going to Vegas obviously, playing some bets and
this is invaluable man, Thanks a lot.
Speaker 5 (35:38):
Hey, you got it. Thanks for having me. Jason
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntire.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up straight Fire or FAYM. It's me Jason
McIntyre Straight Fire for Friday, August the fifteenth. As I
mentioned yesterday, I'll be hosting her today only one hour,
though only one hour TV. I don't believe it's on radio.
That would be another host and a programming note also
(00:31):
mentioned yesterday. No podcast next week, last respite of summer
before oh, Fantasy Survivor gambling weekly Sundays. I mean, guys, listen,
I know some of you are like, oh, Jay, you
vacation a lot.
Speaker 1 (00:48):
Just stop. You know, we have a pop.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
There's actually, well it's an unwritten rule kind of in
sports media, not just Fox or ESPN, but like you
can't take vacations in the fall, Like you can't. I mean,
it's a great time to travel because the summer crowds
are gone, but September through the Super Bowl, I can't.
There's like no days off. And I think the smart
(01:13):
move is at the end of August power down, get
one last.
Speaker 3 (01:17):
You know.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I saw something online about something called a forest bath
where you basically I mean it's essentially hiking but going
in the forest and just chilling out. You don't have
to do it for a night or two days or anything,
just to walk around and distress and all that fun stuff.
So it'll be it'll be a busy, fun week for me,
and then we'll return the final week of August. I'll
(01:39):
be hosting the Herd with a new special guest, Alex Curry,
as everybody knows, had a baby, So it'll be me
and someone I won't be name now, but it should
be fun. And what's also interesting is that's like the
final week, the final week of August is leads up
(01:59):
to Ohio State versus Texas and then the following weeknd's
NFL and then we're off and it's honestly locked in
for seventeen weeks.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Plus the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (02:10):
As my wife likes to remind me, you know, her
birthday is during the NFL season, and it's tough for
your boy to get away at any rate. We have
a great podcast today to bring you into the little
week off of Straight Fire, and it's with Warren Sharp,
(02:33):
who is really really good and he offered, actually, this
is kind of cool.
Speaker 4 (02:37):
So his book is incredible.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
You can get the digital copy, and he actually offered
a really awesome kind of deal. One dollar if you
use code Fire for his digital copy of his book.
It's like an incredible preview, and I'd suggest getting it.
Speaker 1 (02:56):
I got it.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
I've gone through it. Obviously. I start with the Jets
and work backward. But yeah, it's pretty cool. And you
guys are like Warren Sharp's insight.
Speaker 4 (03:02):
We kind of sort of agree on some stuff.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
He's a little lower on one or two teams than
I am and I'm higher in one. But otherwise, enjoy it.
We'll talk to you soon.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live. You know, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports. I know what sports
fans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows a
(03:35):
guy who does.
Speaker 5 (03:36):
Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 3 (03:42):
All right, let's welcome back to straight Fire, one of
the foremost NFL voices out there. Gambling is his thing,
building models. His previews are spectacular and must read.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
Warren Sharp, Warren, how you doing.
Speaker 5 (03:56):
Man, I'm doing great best time of the year to
be talking ball my opinion, because we've got a little
taste of the preseason. Two more games left to go
for each of these teams, but we can start talking
about preseason. We have a little bit better at picture
as to how these teams are going to perform. So
it's a great time to be a football fan. And
I'm certainly happy to have the book writing process in
(04:17):
the rearview mirror and not have to worry about that
right now, because that is an absolute nightmare to put
together each year. But it's a lot of fun when
it's over.
Speaker 4 (04:27):
Yeah, I'm looking at it right now.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
I see it as five hundred and eighty six pages,
so more And basically you don't get a summer, do you.
Speaker 5 (04:34):
I don't know. And the thing is, I have very
high standards for myself when I'm writing this each year,
because I know that a lot of important people read it,
including people in front offices, including people on the analytics
departments of various different teams. Some of them ask me
for hard copies, some of them just want a complimentary PDF.
So like I'm supplying it to those teams, I every
(04:56):
year put very high standards on myself to come up
with in sites that most other people aren't already discussing,
or the real reason why I think these teams performed
well or poorly last year and how I think they're
going to do this year. So we start working on
it in late February, and then this year I came
out with it at the very end of June. So
(05:18):
it's a lot of work, but it really helps me
get set up for the season and has given me
some success from for like a future's betting perspective as well.
Speaker 3 (05:27):
Yeah, I mean, listen, I gotta say some of the
stuff in here, the schedules and the drafts, like these
are breakdowns that are everywhere. So I do want to
start with a team. They're interesting, the Detroit Lions. So
you have them as having the third hardest schedule in
the league. It looks brutal, but there are elements of
it that are super beneficial. And again, I think the
(05:49):
larger discussion you know on box, ESPN everywhere is like, oh,
lines are going to regress, they lost their OC and
DC period, and that's where a lot of people stop.
But your depth on their schedule and how yeah, the
schedule is tougher Detroit, But like the Bears, Bengals, Chiefs, Steelers,
and Eagles are playing them on Monday Night the week before,
(06:11):
so that's a huge edge for the Lions. Do you
actually think is there a worl where the Lions are
a little underrated Warren coming into the season.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
It really, to me just depends on what we're going
to get and we didn't get the chance to see
it yet from John Morton with these starters, I'm just
so fascinated, Jason by how much play action they're going
to incorporate into the season because it really made a
big difference for the passing attack. Like we know that
they lost a little bit on the offensive line, but
and that's going to impact the wrong game. That could
(06:40):
impact the passing game as well. But the real key
for me is just the strategy, the play calling. How
are they going to execute They're going to be aggressive
on fourth down, which is going to give them an edge,
we already know that, but how are they calling these plays?
How are they sequencing in these plays? With John Morton,
there's been a lot of negativity surrounding the Lions. Obviously
most of the offseason they were or the Darlings entering
(07:01):
last year. I was on there over last year, a
lot of people were, and they won fifteen games, made
us look like geniuses. But not very many people are
willing to take stabs on there over this year or
really be supportive of the Detroit Lions, even though they're
still a very good team. We just know collectively from
watching this happened to Philadelphia Eagles. When you lose both
coordinators and both sides of the ball have to replace them,
(07:23):
you're promoting some people, either internally or from outside the
building who aren't like big name guys like John Morton.
I don't know how many teams really we've got to
get John Morton to call offense for us, right, So
I just feel like that is going to be a
big question mark. But for sure you mentioned it on
the schedule side of things, Like if you're looking at
division bets for the NFC North, who's going to win
(07:45):
that division? Keep in mind that I look at a
statistic called net games with rest edge, so it's you know,
the Lions have eight, which is the most I've ever
tracked in my database. The Lions play eight games this
year where they have more rest than their opponent. They
only play one game Week four against the Cleveland Browns
where they have less rest than their opponent, so they're
plus seven. They have seven games with a rest edge.
(08:07):
There's not a single other team in the entire North
that has a single game with a rest edge. Net overall,
the Green Bay Packers are at zero vikings minus two,
Bears at minus three, so that is inevitably going to
help the Detroit Lions. Of course, they play the third
toughest overall schedule. That's not going to be easy either,
So to it's interesting because a lot of people are
(08:28):
giving the Packers love.
Speaker 4 (08:29):
Now this is before the Jordan Love situation here.
Speaker 3 (08:33):
I think he's gonna be fine, but you know, the
injury narrative around him is getting interesting. The Packers seem
to be getting a lot of Super Bowl love.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
Are you buying that?
Speaker 5 (08:41):
By the way, I think the Packers are a really
interesting team because I really liked what their defensive coordinator
did with them last season in his first year in
the building, Jeff Hafley, and I think they're talented on
that side of the ball, and then you look at
the offensive side of the ball. They had the number
one highest drop rate of any team in the NFL
(09:04):
last year in terms of the EPA that was lost.
In terms of players with receiver error, it was the
worst rate for any quarterback since twenty twenty one. Was
the receiver err that the Green Bay Packers' receivers were
delivering to Jordan Love? And then keep in mind that
Jordan Love was injured for over half the season. Now,
(09:25):
he was a warrior, he played through it. That impacted
his statistics. But when he was healthy and playing within
this offense, especially with Josh Jacobs out there running the football,
this team was extremely good. But the fact of the
matter is Jordan Love played through a lot of injuries
last year. So Jordan Love doesn't get the national recognition
(09:45):
for being a very elite quarterback. And I don't know
that I would consider him to be an elite quarterback,
but I do think he possesses a lot of factors
that are elevators for a football team, and they're going
to help the Green Bay Packers win games. So it's
a matter of like, I think they're definitely making the playoffs,
and at that point in time, it's just what's the
(10:06):
draw that they're going to get. How many games might
they get at home? Do they have to be the
team that goes to Philadelphia and play the Eagles on
the road in the postseason. Like, there's a lot of
factors that are going to play into that, but I
certainly think they're worth being in the discussion of being
the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.
Speaker 4 (10:25):
Every year, people love to pick these underdogs. We know,
the worst to first.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
Story happens every year in the NFL. There's like two
or three or four new playoff teams, maybe more than that.
If you take both conferences, I'm taking a flyer on
like Denver winning the division, Atlanta winning the division. In
reading your preview, it doesn't appear as if you agree
with either of those.
Speaker 5 (10:47):
Well, I actually really like both of those teams. You know,
the Atlanta Falcons, there's in my opinion, a lot to like.
And I was, you know, I work with a lot
of guys behind the scenes, talk to them about some
the bets, work with some of the betting groups, and
I pitched the Atlanta Falcons as a team that I
thought has a higher ceiling than most other people. Obviously,
(11:10):
their win total is only seven and a half. I
don't think that a lot of people realize when they like,
just look at the Falcons and what they did last year,
and this is in the preview that they I think
Zach Robinson did a brilliant job managing that roster and
that offense. You know, he's coming into this thing thinking
(11:31):
that Kirk Cousins might be okay. They don't know when
Kirk Cousins is coming back from this Achilles injury. Kirk
Cousins shows up, he can't do anything in the pocket,
like he remember that Week one game against the Steelers.
The dude is a statue taking every step from shotgun,
not moving get rid of the ball. All of a sudden,
you know, Zach Robinson's like, crap, we have to pivot.
We have to make a bunch of changes here to
(11:52):
the offense that I wanted to utilize because now I'm
dealing with Kirk Cousins. And yet they still performed fine
last season in my opinion. Obviously, Kirk Cousins threw away
a lot of games late in the fourth quarter with
a bunch of interceptions. You got Michael Pennick Junior. That's
one of the biggest questions on offense, just his downfield accuracy,
(12:12):
his performance under pressure, Like how great of a quarterback,
can he be? The O line, though, is solid, The
receiving court is solid. Obviously we know the tight end
question marks, but the running back corps is solid, So
I have confidence in all those other levels. The biggest
pushback I got on the Falcons was their defense might
(12:33):
be the worst defense in the NFL. Personnel wise, their
defense might be the worst defense in the NFL. If
that ends up not being the defense is viewed as
a very poor defense and they're playing a brutal schedule.
I show them playing the third toughest increase in difficulty
for any defense in terms of the offenses that they're
(12:54):
going to play, of any team in the NFL. They
played the twenty fifth easiest schedule last year to play
the seventh toughest schedule this year. But if you go
around and like rank the front seven specifically, my staff
ranked the Atlanta Falcons front seven and literally ranked them
dead last in the NFL. So if you disagree with that,
(13:15):
then that obviously boosts the Falcons and should give you
even more confidence because I think their offense is good.
They've got a top seven offensive line, number three best
running back corps, top eleven receiving Corps quarterback is unknown.
If Pennix is fine and you think the defense isn't
one of the worst in the NFL, absolutely the Falcons
are worth a you know, long shot flyer in terms
(13:37):
of doing something in the postseason, but certainly winning that
NFC South, which I think there's a couple of teams
that could win that. I think that there's one that
certainly will not is the New Orleans Saints. But yeah, yeah, yeah,
Well the Denver Broncos. I like the Denver Broncos a lot.
I like the Broncos a lot. The tough part for them,
(14:00):
of course, their schedule. But we know that Bonnicks exceeded
expectations last year. We know that they've figured out a
way to manage him really well. They had one of
the most underrated offensive lines in the NFL last year.
Javonte Williams made it look a lot worse than it
really was. They've replaced him with RJ. Harvey. I'm not
getting the right vibes in camp though about RJ. Harvey
(14:21):
that I thought I was going to get. So that's
still a question mark. But they did bring in you know,
another running back there that is JK. Dobbins, obviously who
should be able to help in the run game, even
if Harvey takes a little while to come around. But
I'm fine with their receiving corps. Like, I think this
is a really good team and they might have the
best defense in the entire NFL. So I like a
(14:41):
lot about the Denver Broncos, and I'm certainly not selling them.
I'm certainly not taking their under, but they've just gotten,
you know, propped up like the New England Patriots have,
like where it's like, how much upside is there in
these futures because there's already a lot of love for
this team in the current marketplace.
Speaker 4 (14:59):
Interesting. Let me go back to the Falcons real quick.
Speaker 3 (15:01):
So they bring on a new DC and olbricked the
guy from the Jets, and I thought they kind of
had a decent offseason. I know people think they overpaid
in the draft to trade up and get Piers, but
he's flashed in camp. You've got Floyd, who's a new addition.
I like Jaylon Walker, Jesse Bates, one of the best
safeties in the league. You got me scared with this defense, man,
(15:25):
I was gonna hammer the over. I have them potentially
as like the number one seed in the NFC. Given
that schedule, is there a world where maybe the Falcons
win twelve, Eagles pull back and nobody there's no fourteen
to fifteen win teams like last year.
Speaker 5 (15:40):
Well, it's interesting when you look at the top six
easiest schedules this year in the NFL, two of them
are from the NFC South, the Falcons and the Saints.
Then you've got the forty nine ers who are just
getting riddled with injuries. And we know that the forty
nine ers, they tend to always be good unless they've
got injuries, and that's the only time when they've struggled.
(16:02):
If but they're already being bitten by the injury bug.
I think you've got the Jags and the Bills and
the Patriots who are over there in the AFC. We
don't have to worry about them for the purpose of
this discussion. The thing that I did like about the
Falcons was that they knew what their weakness was and
addressed it in the draft. Like you mentioned, they go
defense pick one, defense pick two. They moved up defense
pick three with the safety, defense pick four with the safety.
(16:24):
Like all the four of their first round, first four
draft picks, were on the defensive side of the football,
including two in the first round. They know what their
weakness is, They've made moves to address it. The issue is,
like I think they can definitely battle in that division.
The question is what happens outside of that division with
some of the offenses they're going to play. But here's
(16:45):
the positive you've got. I was just looking at this literally,
I was on a conference call right before we talked
about the possibility of us moving on over seven and
a half and the benefit of playing the La Rams
in week seventy. The talk of the town and this
is out in your backyard, so you might know better
about Matthew Stafford, but is that you know, it's still
(17:07):
a little bit concerning that he's not out there practicing
right now, but the fact that most of these people
think he could start the season, But then how much
time is he going to be there? When's he going
to get knocked out? Well, if you don't play the
Rams until week seventeen, like you might not be getting
Matthew Stafford at that point in the season. So that's
a positive for you. And so that's one thing I
think could help the the Falcons a little bit from
(17:32):
a scheduling perspective as well. So I don't mind the
over seven and a half there, but I.
Speaker 4 (17:38):
Mean seven and a half feels so low.
Speaker 1 (17:40):
I'm looking.
Speaker 4 (17:40):
Well, they do have to face Josh Allen, Jaden Daniels early.
We just don't know what's up with JJ McCarthy in Minnesota.
Speaker 1 (17:48):
I don't know, we.
Speaker 5 (17:49):
Don't know, we don't know. Yeah, we don't know about
JJ McCarthy. We don't know about the Indianapolis Colts. Like
who's going to be that quarterback? Which is another team
that the Atlanta Falcons are going to play outside of
their division. Look, Minnesota, I love what they've done with
the offensive line to help shore things up, and certainly
they're going to go through an identity change with a
(18:10):
younger quarterback in there. The thing that I like about
what they're probably going to be doing with the young
quarterback is they've got one of the best play callers
and offensive minds in the NFL in terms of Kevin O'Connell.
The way that he's going to try to make life
easy is going to be very valuable. The key to
them though, as if I'm not mistaken, I'm scrolling through
(18:32):
my preview here, they jumped out to leads in games
last year, unlike most teams in the NFL. And what
that allowed that Brian Floores defense to do is really
stay creative, pin your ears back, make life difficult on
opposing quarterbacks if you are not aggressive with JD. McCarthy
early in the games, like you might have been a
(18:52):
little bit more with Sam Donald and Sam Donald through
a lot of some people don't like the terminology, but
interceptible pass last year that did not get turnover, but
they were turnover worthy. If you don't get those plays
from JJ McCarthy, if he's not pushing the ball down
the field, if you're not scoring points as easily early on,
that's going to make life more difficult for this defense
(19:15):
of the Minnesota Vikings, which is a very talented unit.
And yeah, as I look at it, the Minnesota Vikings
last year scored the number two most points in the
second quarter of any team in the NFL, the second
most points in the first quarter of any team in
the NFL. They led at halftime by the fifth largest margin.
That just makes life so much easier on your defense
(19:35):
and keeps things creative for your play caller. If Kevin
O'Connell isn't aggressing enough, aggressive enough early in games, They're
not going to be playing with leads as much. Then
there's going to be more pressure on JJ McCarthy to
throw the ball in known passing situations in the second half,
and it's going to make more difficult on the defense
as well. So that's the biggest thing for me is
(19:55):
just I trust the coaching and I'm good with the personnel.
How aggressive is he willing to get and how successful
are they going to be early in these games some
of the game scripts that come into play here so
that they can build these quick leads, And that's the
biggest question, and I'm not sure I haven't answered to
you yet for the vikings.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 3 (20:28):
Regarding your gambling chatter with these groups, so we hit
on the Falcons anything any action on first coach fired.
I know Brian Dable is going to be popular, although
some people are backing off now that what's his face?
Dart looks good, But what about Mike McDaniel in Miami.
Do you think there's a world where they run him
mid season, Because I mean, again, I don't want to
read too much into a preseason disaster of a practice,
(20:49):
but apparently they got boat raced in a scrimmage against
someone and it was like the worst scrimmage at Miami
just looked ill prepared. McDaniel at the podium is starting
to kind of grab and say, weird stuff.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
What's the vibe you're hearing around the Dolphins?
Speaker 5 (21:03):
Yeah, you know. Here, here's the thing. I honestly went
back Jason after I saw them struggle at the goal
line and this was I was sharing some of this
on social today. I saw them struggle at the goal
line in the first preseason game and they ran three
times and got stuffed each time and turned the ball over.
It's against the Chicago Bears, And so I went back
(21:24):
and I started watching how they're running out a heavier personnel,
and then I saw that they were the worst team
in the NFL running the football in short yardage situations
last year. In fact, they were the stuff the most
frequently of any rushing attack since twenty nineteen. Is what
the Dolphins offense was doing last year. Even though they
had a Chane who was like great the year before,
this team was struggling a ton last year. And then
(21:45):
I started looking into the personnel groupings that they were utilizing.
And short story, because this could go on for ten minutes.
Be just discussing this because I love talking about this
type of thing. They used the number one highest rate
of runs with a full back out on the field
in short yardage and it's They're at like forty three percent.
The league average is six percent. No other team, there's
only one other team above eighteen percent. But when they
(22:07):
stick that fullback out on the field, they run at
such a high rate in the short yard of situations,
they're telegraphing to the defense, we're going to be running.
You know what the defense is doing on those runs.
They play with seven plus main boxes ninety five percent
of the time.
Speaker 1 (22:20):
Wow.
Speaker 5 (22:20):
The Dolphins, as a result, cannot move them because their
O line isn't talented enough. It's the cheapest offensive line
in the NFL, and it impacts their ability to gain
first downs, which is why they get stuffed so much
because their backs aren't big bruisers. But when they ran
with the same offensive line with the same running backs
over the last two years out of eleven personnel, three
wide receivers, spreading the field a little bit more. The
(22:42):
defense is playing with light boxes on only thirty one
percent of those downs, and they have more success running
the football. They were the number one most efficient team
running the football out of three wide receiver sets in
short yardage. And this isn't something Acidine like no teams do.
In fact, the Rams, the Falcons, and the Bucks all
run from short yardage with three wide receivers out on
(23:04):
the field above sixty percent of the time, some above
eighty percent of the time. So I think the Miami
Dolphins need to tweak some things here. And this is
just pure coaching, but it gets to the overall point
that you're making is just like, do we actually still
have confidence in Mike McDaniel to understand once it was
so novel what he brought to the table in when
he first started there with two and they have to
(23:27):
bring they have to get the ball out into his
hands so quickly because the O line is falling apart.
Last year, they weren't pushing the ball down the field
in the passing attack because they were I think Mike
McDaniel was worried about Tool getting another concussion on his watch,
and he didn't want to be responsible for having a
guy who's playing behind a battle line. They already know that,
and two is just holding the football. So it's all
this underneath stuff to the tight ends and the running backs,
(23:48):
and it's just not productive enough. So there's gonna have
to be I'll tell you this, Like there's been most seasons,
Mike McDaniel comes in with like something new, like to
start the year, we saw the short motion one year.
They're gonna have to come out with something this year
because if they come with the same similar offense that
they brought last year, I agree, the offense is going
to struggle and everybody's gonna probably blame it on Mike McDaniel.
(24:13):
And so that's definitely a recipe for disaster. But it's
hard for me to look. I think drafting the quarterback
for the New York Giants does buy Brian da ball.
Speaker 1 (24:23):
Really.
Speaker 5 (24:25):
I think I think drafting that quarterback does buy him time.
I don't know when they're going to stick darted. I
actually think that Russell Wilson is going to look much
better in this offense for the Giants than any other
quarterback that Brian Dable has worked with in New York,
other than you know since he came to New York,
since Buffalo, because Russell Wilson works a lot better throwing
(24:45):
from spread personnel. He works a lot better throwing to
wide receivers. And that's what the Giants use at high
rates is eleven personnel, a lot of wide receiver targets.
When he was in Pittsburgh and before that in Denver,
which is the two stops since Seattle where he's looked terrible,
those two teams use a lot of heavy personnel and
throw lots of tight ends and backs, and that's just
(25:06):
not really where he has his strength. The biggest issue, though,
is going to be the protection up front with that
offensive line. He is horrible under pressure. He thinks he's
the young guy that he once was in Seattle. He's
not the young guy. Happens to all of us. He's
terrible under pressure. He can't be scrambling around trying to
evade defenders. He's just got to figure out a way
to get rid of the football. That could drive Brian
(25:27):
daball nuts. But let's face it, it's still not going
to be worse than the quarterbacks stay Ball has been
working with over the last several years. So I think
Dable's got a little bit of a lifeline with the
Jackson Dark Draft pick. I could be wrong, but Mike McDaniel,
you know something's got to change for Miami, and has
got to change early in the season.
Speaker 3 (25:46):
I wouldn't be a real Jets fan if I didn't
ask your thoughts on the Aaron Glenn Higher Justin Fields
at quarterback. It just feels like a bit of a
stop gap before they get Arch Manning or someone you
know can actually be a Franchisecoa Bank.
Speaker 5 (26:01):
Well, I'll tell you I took Justin fields rushing yards
over which I definitely think is a good bet. It
assumes his health, right, But.
Speaker 4 (26:09):
Wait, you could bet his season total rushing yards.
Speaker 5 (26:12):
Yes, you can. I took it. I'm gonna try to
figure it out here future. I took it at I
don't know what it is right now.
Speaker 4 (26:25):
I mean, I guess the risk there Warren is that,
like you know, he gets hurt.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
Six twenty five yeah, six five yards. There was a quote,
I think it was today I saw on Twitter where
somebody asked a team that was practicing against the Jets.
What do you feel about Justin Fields as a quarterback
going up against in the last two days, And he said,
I really can't tell you what I feel about him
(26:50):
as a quarterback because he spent most of the practice
running around with the football trying to evade the pass rush.
And that's exactly what I sort of think is going
to happen, and that's going to heed to a lot
of these rushing attempts. Last year, we saw how many
times did you see Aaron Rodgers dropping back just dumping
the ball off to Breis Hall underneath because he was
trying to get rid of the ball quickly because the
(27:12):
pass rush wouldn't hold up longer if he's trying to
take long dropbacks. And that's one of the things self
preservation mode that Aaron Rodgers has gone into at this
latter stage of his career. He's trying to get rid
of the ball super quickly. That is the biggest delta
for any quarterback change in the NFL is Justin Field's
time to throw versus Aaron Rodgers time to throw. Aaron
(27:33):
Rodgers is one of the fastest in the NFL. Justin
Field is one of the slowest. In the NFL. He
had the highest rate of pass attempts thrown after three
seconds of any quarterback in the NFL last year. And
it's been a bugaboo every place that he's been. In
Chicago he started in twenty twenty one number six longest
time to throw, the next year number three, longest time
(27:53):
to throw, the next year, number one, longest time to throw,
and in Pittsburgh number four, longest time to throw. This
is a feature, not a bug. It's going to be
something that's going to come to New York. It's going
to be very different than what Aaron Rodgers is doing
behind that offensive line. As a result, I just think
there's going to be a lot of pressure on Justin
Fields in the pocket. It's going to force him to
(28:15):
then scramble with the football and run with the football.
And he's different than like a Baker Mayfield or some
of these other types of quarterbacks that will run out
of bounds after getting a first down. Like I think
Justin Fields is playing for his career. He's been given
another lifeline here by the Jets. He is. That's why
I miss like what one practice with his toe injuries.
Right back out there, he's taking this very seriously, as
(28:37):
he should. I think he's going to be a gamer.
I think it's one of his best attributes. I love
the upside that comes from a running quarterback. I think
he's going to be scrambling all over the field. I'm
curious to see how that defense holds up because they
have better talent than what Detroit's defense had, and Aaron
Glenn's got a unique style. I mean, they would be
(28:58):
The thing they remember about this d defense in Detroit
is that Detroit blitz at one of the highest rates
in the NFL. They had a great pressure rate, but
could not get any sacks. For some reason, they were
not registering any sacks at all. He called the defense,
and they were getting after quarterback but couldn't sack them.
If that regresses positively in New York for the Jets
(29:20):
and they're getting after the quarterback and recording those sacks,
those could change the game. I mean, sacks are absolute
drive killers for opposing offenses. That could definitely make life
a lot easier on justin fields. I just don't have
a lot of confidence in his ability as a pocket
passing quarterback to get the ball out on time and
to raise the ceiling of this team. But I'll tell
(29:41):
you I still didn't see enough to make me want
to fade the Jets and bet they're under. So I've
bet nothing on the New York Jets. Right now. I
would probably lean to the under, but I liked Justin
Field's rushing yards over and to that point. Injuries obviously
the number one concern if you're betting a player prop over,
But in Justin Field's case, he just needs this so
(30:03):
badly for the rest of his career that I think
he's not going to be the type of guy who's
just gonna sit out and give it a couple of
extra weeks. He'll get out there as early as possible,
and I think he goes over six to twenty five
minut interesting.
Speaker 3 (30:17):
So I didn't even realize in his second year in
Chicago he had eleven hundred yards rushing and then six
fifty seven the following seasons, And you're right, you know,
the Jets model were probably could be, Hey, let's do
what they did in Pittsburgh. We got a really good defense,
Let's get after the quarterback, keep it close.
Speaker 4 (30:33):
And not make mistakes.
Speaker 3 (30:34):
So Justin we don't want you throw in a ton
we want you handing off.
Speaker 4 (30:37):
By the way, what's the latest with breecee Ho Hall.
You know Breese Hall, Garrett Wilson. Are they vibing with
Fields or not?
Speaker 1 (30:44):
Really?
Speaker 4 (30:45):
I know Wilson knows him from Ohio State.
Speaker 5 (30:48):
Yeah, Garrett Wilson has said nothing but positive things about
Justin Fields. The big issue with Breece Hall is just
like he feels disrespected because he doesn't get it. He
does another contract. He's going into a free Agenciason after this, obviously,
and they have two young guys that they brought in
last year. Breishall got more playing time than them, but
(31:09):
both of these guys now are coming along a little
bit more, and so they're probably going to be incorporated
more into this offense. And so the question is just
like how much work is there to go around if
you aren't winning games, and you might need to have
Justin Fields drop back to pass a little bit more
because game script reasons, you're not going to have as
many rushing attempts. I agree with you that they probably
(31:30):
are going to come out intent on trying to run
the football. The question is just like how long throughout
the course of a game can they do that? If
they are trailing, and so Breese Hall he's just gonna
have to come out there and make the most of
his opportunities. And the thing is then the leave it
into the offensive coordinator in the play caller's hands, and
the head coach is to who then gets the reps
(31:51):
and moves up the depth chart in the running back
room in the pecking order there and getting some of
those opportunities. Who comes out week one, two, three and
plays the best. And so there's a lot of questions
in the running back room because Braylen Allen is somebody
who a lot of people are high on as well.
So I think they've got a good stable of backs.
But one thing I know is that you saw a
(32:13):
lot of receiving yards from Breecee Hall, and they don't
have Bressee Hall line for receiving yards yet. But if
I could bet an under on Breeze Hall of season
receiving yards, I probably would if that is based at
all on last year's numbers, because he's not just mobile
quarterbacks like that actually raised the floor of the running
back that they're working with from a rushing perspective because
(32:34):
of all the read options and things that they can
do on the ground, but they definitely lower the floor
in terms of targeting those running backs out of the backfield.
Aaron Rodgers throwing all left and right to Breeshall, that's
not happening this year, and so I would be looking
to bet the under on Brishall receiving yards if they
line that before the season starts.
Speaker 3 (32:50):
Man, I don't know who does more homework than you.
By the way, I love the positional spending. I mean
that was an absolutely great nugget. Miami as the cheapest
ole line in the league. Jets are up there. I
do know that that's for sure a lot of young guys.
But Ward Sharp obviously go grab his football preview.
Speaker 4 (33:05):
It's tremendous. Great reading here. With two weeks left, warn
are you going to be entering any of those Vegas contests?
Speaker 5 (33:10):
You know, I am probably going to focus a little
bit on the you can bet the regular season wins
at the Westgate contest where you can go through all
thirty two teams and bet the over or under on
the season wins. And it's a I don't know how
many years they've been doing that contest, but that's definitely
something that's right up my alley having researched all of
(33:31):
the teams, and it's something that you don't have to
worry about during the course of the season. Now, during
the course of the season, most of the players and
I've been in those contests for several years. One year
I finished twenty first when they paid off the top
twenty And you know, there's definitely some opportunity. It's a
lot of work to if you're trying to finish high,
but a lot of variance goes into the people that
(33:53):
end up winning that. I like this season win contest.
I'm starting to dig into that a little bit more.
What's the buy and you know, I want to say
it was like only like four hundred or.
Speaker 3 (34:03):
Oh that's not back six, No, I wonder if, yeah,
if it's that cheap, I'm sure people will do multiple entrants,
and I would it would You should humor me, and well,
I should humor myself and just go enter and just
pick thirty two unders as one entry, and then thirty
two overs is the next entry, just for fun, just
(34:23):
to see what happens, just that I want to blow fast.
Speaker 5 (34:26):
That's yeah, No, I actually I could be wrong. It
might only be two hundred dollars to enter, but like
there were there weren't that many people that entered it
last year. I want to say the number was around
two hundred entrant. So you actually have a decent shot
at winning it because there's not a massive lot of
people who know about this contest, and I think it's
I think it's a lot of fun and you don't
have to worry about it once the season starts. In
(34:48):
terms of trying to come up with additional selection, I
do I do want to throw out there, you know,
my my twenty twenty five football preview, if you go
to sharp dot football, I'm giving that away for you
guys for one dollar if you enter the code five
obviously for one dollars name for one dollar. Because it's
getting close to the start of the season, and it
is five hundred and eighty six pages. There's thirty two
(35:09):
team chapters. But somebody's not gonna be able to sit
here and digest it nearly as well at this point
in time as they would have if they bought it
in July first. So it's only one dollar. I can
tell you it's the best dollar that you'll spend on
football analysis to help you get ready for the season,
so use the coupon code fire and awesome.
Speaker 4 (35:25):
Thanks a lot, Warren. That's great stuff, man. One dollar Yeah, no, no,
I'm digging into it. And you know i'd like to
take a week off late in August. I'm taking one soon.
Speaker 3 (35:33):
I'll be going to Vegas obviously, playing some bets and
this is invaluable man, Thanks a lot.
Speaker 5 (35:38):
Hey, you got it. Thanks for having me. Jason
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
Popular Podcasts
New Heights with Jason & Travis Kelce
Football’s funniest family duo — Jason Kelce of the Philadelphia Eagles and Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs — team up to provide next-level access to life in the league as it unfolds. The two brothers and Super Bowl champions drop weekly insights about the weekly slate of games and share their INSIDE perspectives on trending NFL news and sports headlines. They also endlessly rag on each other as brothers do, chat the latest in pop culture and welcome some very popular and well-known friends to chat with them. Check out new episodes every Wednesday. Follow New Heights on the Wondery App, YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. You can listen to new episodes early and ad-free, and get exclusive content on Wondery+. Join Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts or Spotify. And join our new membership for a unique fan experience by going to the New Heights YouTube channel now!
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!