November 21, 2025 • 48 mins
On today’s episode, Jason discusses the Buffalo Bills embarrassing road loss to the Houston Texans, why he wouldn’t be surprised to see Brian Daboll back in Buffalo relatively quickly to help shore up Buffalo’s offense, whether the Bills can be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender, and how the Texans actually control their own destiny in the AFC playoff race. Later, professional poker player and sports gambler David Baker swings by to discuss how he would handicap his Survivor picks both for this upcoming Sunday and the rest of the NFL season. Finally, J-Mac closes the show with this Best Bets for the upcoming college football and NFL Week 12 slate.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
What is up, Straight Fire Fan, It's me Jason McIntyre,
Straight Fayre for Friday, November twenty First, Oh my goodness,
ladies and gentlemen. Did we have a game last night?
Woh crazy, crazy Houston Buffalo game. We'll talk about that
momentarily amazing guest, one of your favorites, David Baker, big
(00:34):
time poker player, big time NFL gambler, stops by Little
survivor a little Week twelve run through the card. We
agree on a lot this week. I don't know if
that's a good or bad thing. And then at the
end of the podcast we'll do some some best bets,
that stuff that I've bet already a lot of money
in play, and I don't It's not been a great week.
Lost Illinois two nights ago in college hoops, and then
(00:56):
last night wasn't great. I gotta be honest. What to
make of the Buffalo Bills at this point, folks, you
go on the road against Davis Mills in Houston and
you lose. Your offense looks like hot garbage, with the
exception of an incredible in just an unbelievable play call,
on fourth and twenty seven, the hook and ladder goes
for forty four yards. That was the highlight of the
(01:17):
game by a mile. Otherwise it was ugly. Josh Allen
on his back all night. Eight sacks taken, the most
in his career. Bills were inept in the red zone,
zero for two, three turnovers. If they don't get a
kickoff return for touchdown, I mean they kind of get
blown out here, right A really poor performance. I thought
rock bottom was when they call a fourth and one
(01:38):
half back dive I think right around the twenty five
yard line, and Josh Allen is livid, comes over the sideline,
slams his helmet, looks at the backup quarterback and mounts
what are we doing? And it's very clear from that
moment Brian daboles phone probably lit up. And I will
guarantee you that the Brian Dable who was just fired
by the New York Giants is brought in this week
(01:59):
or week as an advisor quote for the Buffalo Bills offense,
because that was ghastly, Ladies and gentlemen, James Cook, they're
supposed to be unbelievable when he has over one hundred
yards rushing Cook was extraordinary, broke off the forty five
yard TD run, seventeen carries for a buck sixteen, and
for some reason, he barely was on the field in
the fourth quarter, didn't get many carries, and I just
(02:21):
I did not understand the play call. Keon Coleman was
a late scratch, healthy scratch. That's two weeks in a row,
and there are reports out there from Buffalo Beat writers
that the Bills are trying to do everything they can
to get this guy's act together, and at the same time,
they're also looking through trash cans around the league trying
to pick up guys to make the team. Gabe David.
(02:42):
They're throwing a Gabe Davis on the game winning drive
that he was in Street Closes two weeks ago. Gabe
Davis is now running routes for the Buffalo Bills. I
know people want to say, well, they just don't have receivers, folks.
This is on the GM. He had such an ego
that they didn't draft a receiver early enough, and then
they had another chance at the deadline and they just
(03:04):
decided we're good, We're gonna rock with what we got.
That is, I don't know if that's a fireable offense.
But this is the year Buffalo should have gone all in.
This is the year that Joe Burrow's hurt and the
Bengals ain't going to the playoffs. Lamar Jackson was hurt earlier.
The Chiefs are down bad. I mean, the freaking Colts
and the Broncos are the best teams in the AFC.
(03:25):
Like say that out loud. The Chargers are injured. I
don't think they're gonna get to the playoffs. If you
look at the schedule, they're in trouble, and you're telling
me you're not gonna go all in at the deadline
and get Josh Allen something to help him. I don't
know what to say about Buffalo at this point. Now
do I know? The right tackle went down, but that's
not how you get give up eight sacks. Will Anderson
(03:48):
was an absolute menace off the edge. What's his name,
Dion Dawkins did not look anything like the All Pro
that he has been in the past. He got worked, guys.
The Hunter had two sacks, two tackles for loss. Hunter
three quarterback hits, Will Anderson three quarterback hits. The Buffalo
Bills quarterback who ain't gonna win MVP this year. Was
(04:09):
hit twelve times. I'm seeing twenty eight pressures. He had
no time to throw. And I don't know, guys. I
have future tickets on Buffalo. I have that you know,
home run hitting matchup where it's like, oh yeah, Buffalo
versus the Rams and the Super Bowl. I have a
bunch of that stuff involving the Bills, and I watched
(04:29):
them now go to Miami and lose. They went to
Atlanta lost, They go to Houston and lout. These are
not good teams. And you're trying to tell me that
the Buffalo Bills go on the road and win three
straight playoff games. I don't know how that happens. I
just I cannot see that in any world. Can they
win one or two, yeah, without question, but three you
tell me they're gonna win three tickets. They're not even
(04:51):
good on the road this season, and the injuries are
starting to mount. I'm sure you saw Bernard. They're good linebacker.
He went down, Epanesza went down. Bar looks like a
multi week injury. Something with his elbow. The safety of
the young burner in the secondary. I'm space at Hairston.
He went down. It was a body back game. I mean,
Houston's was flying around. This was the Houston team that
(05:14):
I had bet on earlier this season when they lost
to Tampa in primetime, right when they lost to Settle.
I didn't bet on him against Seattle in primetime the Broncos.
I mean they losed. That wasn't in primetime, but you know,
you know what I'm saying, Like it was a close
game and they lose to the Broncos. I had him.
I had him in the game against the Bucks and
they lost. And I think I had him in that
(05:35):
first meeting against the Jags and they lost. They hadn't
really want any close games. Here's the wackiness, and it's
similar to the Mac Jones Brock party thing. Davis Mills
is like competent. Now listen, I'm not saying Davis Mills
is better than Res Stroud or he's taking his job
or anything remotely close to that. But Davis Mills showed
(05:56):
me some competency.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
You know what.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
He didn't do lose the game. He was only six
a thirty for a buck fifty three two. He did
throw two touchdowns. I mean he's throwing a Jayden Higgins,
Christian Kirk, I totally forgot about that guy. I'm kind
of sort of stunned. Now, I'm not gonna go overboard
and say Buffalo is not making the playoffs. Don't make
the playoffs. The schedule hold on. I had the remaining
(06:17):
schedules here, Buffalo has the oh wait, wait, where is
it Buffalo? So on this website Tankathon they have hardest
remaining schedules. Buffalo checks in at nineteenth. They have a
game against the Patriots and again that's going to be
a revenge spot. Eagles, Steelers, oh what else? They got
(06:41):
here and they got Jets. That's a win. Browns that's
probably a win. And Bengals, we'll see it looks like
Burrow's going to be back. I don't know. I mean, hell,
that isn't not an easy schedule. But here's the thing.
For Houston, that's an incredible win because they're battling the
Chargers and their battle the Kansas City Chiefs for a
(07:03):
playoff Berth and again CJ. Stroud should be back next week.
Woody Marks looks pretty good in the backfield, like they
have a decent team. Again. The defense continue to wreak
havoc like it did tonight. I mean goodness, gracious, that
was an amazing performance. They Oh, they have games left
against the Colts, Chiefs and Chargers. Holy hell too against
(07:25):
the Colts. So Houston, probably more so than anybody, controls
its own destiny, right. If they are able to sweep
the Colts, then they could get back in position and
maybe steal the division. Unlikely, but it's possible. That game
against the Chiefs is a Sunday night football game, and
that is enormous. Oh wait a minute, at twelve seven,
eight twenty Yeah, yeah, Sunday Night Football NBC. That's huge
(07:47):
because we know the Chief's weaknesses tackle and if will
Anderson and Hunter are healthy, they're gonna be They're gonna
be down Patrick Mahomes's throat. Obviously you'll need Stroud for
that one. But this was one of those Holy hell.
This goes back to what we were saying, like week
two or week three, is anybody good? I think it's
a legitimate question. At the same time, you know, Buffalo
(08:09):
shows up. Currently they fall to sixth in the AFC.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, they don't, it would be
Patriots hosting the Jags, Colts hosting the Bills, Steelers, Chargers,
I think the Bills would beat the Colts. Bills would
be favored, not by much, but they'd be favored. All right.
Without further ado, let's get to our guest poker player gambler,
(08:31):
David Baker.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
I know what sports fans wants, but for.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Everything he doesn't he knows the guy who does. Let's
just say I know a guy who knows the guy
who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
All right, let's welcome back to straight fire mister David Baker.
He is the Vegas NFL contest guy, poker superstar. It's
so funny. Time I hit him up, He's like, oh yeah,
I'm on a golf course with Mookie Betts. Now he's
just got some crazy stuff going on. David, how are you? Man?
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Man? Let's keep the intro going, loving love love loving it.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
First of all, how was it golfing with Pedro Martinez
in company?
Speaker 3 (09:15):
It was crazy, like Pedro's Pedro is like one of
my top five athletes of all time, and just I
didn't get to golf with him, but he was out
there and ran into him and couldn't have been nicer. Yeah,
it was. It was cool. I was out there at
Shadow Creek. Anybody who knows anything about golf in Vegas,
it's like one of the most prestigious like golf courses
around and TNT filmed the Major League Baseball event and
(09:41):
it was so I guess. They had a tournament where
each team had a past and a present player play,
and they had the day before they had a pro
am at Scramble and we got matched up with Major
League Baseball players. We played nine holes with Will Smith,
series hero, eleventh inning home run guy for the Dodgers
(10:04):
for sure catcher, and it was just cool, Like, I mean,
obviously that guy's on cloud nine right now, and just yeah,
just to be out there with him and someone who's
like he's so small in stature, Like it's you know,
you see a lot of these athletes and they're like
so much bigger than you. It's like, oh, yeah, that
guy's an athlete, and you see Will Smith and he's
like my size, and it's like, this guy's out here
(10:26):
catching eighteen innings of baseball and hitting home runs and
blocking pitches and you know, holding his foot on the
base for just like the game clinching out and just
I mean amazing, amazing, just like being out there with him,
and yeah it was fun and yeah, just cool to
be out there and this life, this game on life's
(10:48):
kind of giving me, like some pretty cool opportunities. Saw
Mookie Betts and Mett Pedro and whatnot. So yeah, it
was fun time out there.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
It's good to be a big time poker player. Also,
I mean, they probably know you for poker. I don't
know if they don't, you find it.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Honest, Jason, they didn't. They don't know me. But that's okay.
You know, in my own little world, we'll just think
that we're like.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Oh, yeah, you guys are buddies.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Yeah, there's the D listers and then there's me. But
you know, I'm on a list, so that's okay. You know,
I get to do this stuff. So regardless, Hey.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
You only live one life, man, live it up, enjoy it.
I don't know about enjoying this weekend in NFL. So
let's start with Survivor. Obviously, we were in the Survivor contest.
You you fronted most of the money. I just paid
a little and we took that brutal Arizona loss. I
still don't think there'll be a tougher loss this season
than Arizona melting against Tennessee, so we don't need to
(11:39):
revisit that. But for instance, you're still alive in a
survivor Me and a buddy are in a local one,
and we were gonna go Baltimore this weekend and then Wednesday.
Lamar Jackson doesn't practice. Now he's back today. As we
record this on Thursday, I feel like the Ravens are safe.
We're good. How are you handicapping this week because it's difficult.
Joe Burrow's returning, so people probably wanted to take Patriots,
(12:00):
but a Burrow as of now may start that line's cratering.
You got Chadurs starting, do you automatically fade him and
roll the dice with the Raiders. The Rams have some
major injuries. I had like them against the Bucks. There's
the Lions if anybody has them. But Jackson Dart now
looks like he's going to clear a concussion protocol. A
lot of stuff up in the air as you record
(12:21):
on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Yeah, I mean, I think it basically just comes down
to your survivor contest, the one that I'm still alive
in is the Circa contest where you have to use
a Thanksgiving team and a Christmas team. So Baltimore becomes
more of the question with Circa because you really incentivize
to save them because they do play on Thanksgiving, and
(12:44):
although Joe Burrow might be back, they're still going to
be probably the biggest or second biggest favorite on the
board that week, next to Philly for Chicago. And we
know Chicago's playing some good football, and we know Philly sometimes,
you know, can't get that offense moving. So I think
it basically comes down to that if you're in a
survivor pool, when you have Baltimore at this point in
the season and you do not have to save them
(13:06):
for Christmas, I don't see a reason not to unload
them here. I mean, you put Lamar back there in
a wheelchair and I'll take them, like I mean, I mean,
this is the Jets, this is Tyra, this is Tyrod Taylor.
I mean, no Garrett Wilson, no Garrett Wilson obviously, no Sauce,
no Quinton, Like I mean, they traded part of their team.
You have a coach that just flailing out there, and
(13:29):
I think I'd be even I mean I might be
like one percent worried with the Ravens if they had
gone out and just you know, blown out the Browns.
But because they were so bad versus the Browns, I
think they have to be serious. I mean, they know
they they know that they're not the Ravens that they're
supposed to be, and so I think they feel like
(13:51):
they probably need to put a whooping on somebody. And
who better than the New York Jets. I mean, this
team is this seems as bad as it gets, So yeah,
I mean, if I'm not it, if I in your situation,
I'm just clicking Baltimore and forgetting about it. My situation
is a little different. If I had Seattle left, I
would consider them. I mean, we know Tennessee is one
of the worst, and you know, again another team that
(14:14):
wasn't didn't live up to their expectations last week, and
I think goes out and tries to really put a
statement game against Tennessee. So I would like Seattle if
I had them available. But I don't have Seattle, and
I really don't want to use Baltimore. So now I'm
down to San Francisco or maybe the Raiders. I mean,
I don't hate the Raiders spot. To be honest, I
think Chador might be one of the worst quarterbacks we've
(14:38):
ever seen at this stage in his career. Like, I'm
not saying that he might not learn as.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Sixty passes come on, that's harsh.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Wow, I'm just saying at this point, like, I just
don't expect anything. I look here, here's the truth of
the matter. There's a reason why he dropped to the
fifth round in the draft, and there's a reason why
the Cleveland Browns were starting Dylan Gabriel, who by all
accounts is one of the worst quarterbacks we've seen in
(15:06):
a long time, be out there and play. And they
didn't even say, you know what, let's let's go half
and half and mix up and give each of these
guys some snaps because maybe Shudor can take a spot
they were locked in. We're giving Dylan Gabriel the starts.
So to me, that just tells me they know what
they have in that building and they don't really like
(15:26):
it might be proven wrong. And you know, we know
that the Raiders are bad, So I mean, yeah, it's
obviously a big leap of faith, but I'm willing to
take it. I don't believe in Shador at this point.
I'm not saying that he won't be anybody, but I
think it's it's all hype, all smoke, a lot of mirrors.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Did you see his offensive lineman was like when Shador
ran on the field, he was motioning to the crowd
to make noise and we had to tell him, bro, Bro,
we're at home. It's a fourth quarter. Please don't tell
the crowd to be loud. We need to quiet for
the staff. Count Like that's how excited to do them with?
I don't know. I definitely wouldn't roll the dice with
the Raiders. I'll quickly ask Niners Panthers, would you consider
(16:06):
Sanfrian or is Carolina playing good that they're kind of
plucky now with Rego Doubtele and Bryce Young off a
four hundred and fifty yard game.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Well, I think it all comes down to how you
view playing Survivor. If you view playing Survivor as I
want the best chance to survive this week, and they're
your best option, then go ahead and play them. If
you play more of a game theory Survivor pool where
you are really looking for big chunks of the pool
to lose on any given week so that the pool
(16:36):
will be reduced. I think San Francisco is a pretty
good fade. I think in most pools they're going to
be in the thirty percent ow wow, and as a
seven point favorite with some upcoming spots. I mean, they
play Tennessee coming up, and they play Cleveland coming up,
so they have some really good opportunities later to use them.
(16:57):
I think I just probably feel comfortable hoping that, you know,
this seven point team can win. I mean, we do
know that Carolina is a way different team on the
road than they are at home, but you.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Just want to at Atlanta for what it's worth.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
I mean, yeah, exactly, Alta and the team's coming together.
I mean we did see Carolina kind of last year
at the end of the year start to become a
better unit. So yeah, I mean Carolina is going to
be out there. They're going to throw everything they've got
at them, and yeah, I mean we think San Francisco
is kind of back a little bit. But if they're
back then then I'm plenty comfortable saving them for the
(17:39):
future when they're going to have Tennessee and Cleveland coming up,
and if we're getting Shador and we're getting cam Ward.
I mean, I feel very comfortable with those spots. Why
play them now? If you have a valid option. Now,
if you've used Baltimore and you've used Seattle, and you've
used Green Bay and Detroit, then yeah, maybe you're stuck
in that situation. But if you have a better team,
(18:03):
I feel very comfortable saving San Francisco and hoping that
they lose and we lose, you know, twenty five to
thirty percent of the pool.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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listen live.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
All right, let's go through some of the games I
have bet New Orleans against Atlanta. Obviously, the Saints are
now favored in this game. Interesting tidbit so the Falcons.
David played in Berlin the overtime game, flew back home
to play Carolina another overtime game. No by weekend between
the Berlin and now without Drake May not Drake May,
(18:45):
without Michael Pennix, and without Drake London, they have to
face the Saints on the road. Now, I'm not saying
the Saints are good, but Atlanta. We saw them without
London and Pennix and they got smashed by the Dolphins.
So I think I'm sorry. I'm on the Saints here,
and I don't think they're good, but they are coming
off a bye. I just think every line thing lines
(19:06):
up like Atlanta in the second half, look like they
ran out of gas. The Panthers just went up and
down the field against them, like two overtime games, international game.
I'm on the Saints.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Well, I'm right there with you. This is one of
the games I really like this week, and I think
they're kind of a sneaky survivor play too, if you
want to. If you if you're one of those entries
that have used a lot of really good teams and
you've just you know that at some point in the season,
you're going to have to eke out some of one
of these tough games and one of these bad teams.
I like the Saints here, one of my strongest and
(19:40):
and the data nerds and the and the spreadsheet guys
are all gonna you know, they hate when I say
stuff like this, but I like to look at motivation
and one of my things that I really like to
look at later in the year is when teams have
a lot of I guess preseason aspirations and they kind
of realize that it's done, they kind of take seem
(20:03):
to fall off. And then when you also have a
team that knows that they're they've kind of been in
this situation for a while, so them being out of
it doesn't really affect them and it's kind of like, Okay,
now we have to play for our jobs. And Lana
came into the season, they had a lot of preseason expectations.
Last the last two weeks were kind of their last
ditch efforts. Do you believe in Raheem Morris? Do you
(20:26):
believe it? Do you believe in this culture? Do you
believe in this team? And I think that the Falcons
really gave us a resounding no. They don't. The players,
I don't think, really believe in Raheem Morris. I don't
believe in Raheem Morris. And I think this is kind
of a nice little quit spot. Meanwhile, you have the
Saints who are building. They're building for next year. They're
(20:46):
coming off of a bye week, they have the coach
that they like, they have the quarterback that they're trying
to see if he's the guy. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, you've
got a coach they don't like. I'm guessing by their
effort and the way that they've played. You have a
quarterback that I don't think the team believes in. You
have no weapons. So and you're on the road. So
(21:07):
I yeah, I really do like this spot for the Saints,
and it will definitely be on my card this week.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Right, So I picked, Yeah, you could pick the next one,
and before we go, I will get to the tougher games.
I know nobody, nobody's gonna watch Saints Falcons, but you
and I are.
Speaker 3 (21:22):
You know, I watch it. You gotta watch them all.
You gotta watch them all. You can't have opinions on games.
You can't come in next week and say like, oh,
I like this team versus the Falcons and not have
watched them.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Technically that the four pm slate is is very weak. Yeah,
so is there a game you want to jump on?
Speaker 3 (21:42):
Well, I mean, we can talk about some of the
bigger games, but one of the games that's not a
bigger game is the Bear Steelers. I mean, I don't
know how you really are currently feeling about the Steelers,
but I think there's fraudulent as they come.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Oh wow, even though the line's dropping and Aaron Rodgers
looks like he's gonna play based on the video at practice.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
I mean, what what is there that you like about
the Steelers? The defense is a complete fraud. The only
time that they ever win games is when they turn
the when they turn teams over four or five times
a game. They have no weapons, they don't have a quarterback.
I trust this game's on the road, it's a short line,
and Chicago's playing with confidence. They're playing with a coach
(22:20):
that that they're playing for. I've always believed in Caleb.
So do I think that Chicago's ready to make them
run in the NFC? No, they're not there. But do
I think that they're better than this Pittsburgh team? Absolutely?
And what this line is basically telling me that these
two teams are equal, and I don't really see it.
I don't really see Pittsburgh being a viable playoff team.
(22:40):
And you know, at some point you've just got to say, yeah,
Chicago's gotten lucky. But I can, on one side, say
I believe in the Broncos and you know, dismiss some
of their luck and say that, you know, They're a
clutch team, and at the same time just dismissed what
Chicago's doing because Chicago and Denver have both lived on
the edges and they both you know, kind of played
with their food with some of their worst teams, but
(23:02):
found ways to win. So winning is contagious, and I
think winning is a trade and a skill, and Chicago
kind of has that right now. And I just don't
believe in Pittsburgh. So laying short of a field goal,
I feel pretty comfortable with Chicago.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Interesting, Yeah, I bet Chicago early in the week. Obviously,
I'm having some buyers remorse Bears by the way negative
six point differential as a division leader. I think they
lead the league in turnovers turnovers generated at least that is,
And yeah, that can always be lucky. But yeah, I
don't like Rogers or anything. Let's go to Colts Chiefs.
So interesting one. Chiefs have the buy, come off of
(23:37):
it and have a huge divisional game with the Broncos.
They don't look that great. The Colts, meanwhile, are off
of a buy and have added Sauce Gardner to the defense.
They have a defensive coordinator who's one of the few
to go to arrowhead and bottle up Mahomes in that
playoff game, Captain Lou, I mean they got a run game.
We saw what the Bills did on the ground with
(23:57):
James Cook to the Chiefs. A lot of stuffing up
here for the Colts, I'm afraid to I took Broncos
last week. I'm afraid to go back to the well
and take the Colts at three and a half or three?
What say you?
Speaker 3 (24:10):
Well, if you follow my Twitter, if you follow my
podcast quick Plug Gamble Up Podcast, then you know that
I'm the resident Chief hater. I've been down on the Chiefs.
I don't believe in this Chiefs team, and also huge
Bonis and Bronco fans. So yeah, that game was pretty sweet.
I look at the Chiefs and you know, I looked
(24:33):
at this game and I wanted to like the Chiefs because,
you know, are they really just going to go away
and just fade quietly into the night. Probably not. But
I look at this game and we have I really
don't like playing teams after they play tough, physical teams
on the road, and that's exactly what Kansas City did.
(24:53):
They played Denver, one of the most physical teams in
the NFL at altitude and they lost. Meanwhile, the Colts
were at home game planning for this Chiefs team. And
I look at this Chiefs team, and I look at
this offense, and I hear all these analysts say this
Chiefs team's better than last year's Chiefs team. Just wait,
and when I watch this Chiefs offense, this is what
(25:15):
I see. I see. They run three plays. They run
Kareem Hunt up the middle for two yards. They run
crossing yards, the crossing routes to receiver rise for two
yards and hope he gets free, but normally he gets tackled.
And they run arm punts. They just throw the ball
fifty yards down the field and hope that they get
interference or that one of their receivers can come down
with the ball. That's literally their entire offense. They don't
(25:37):
run seam patterns, they don't run, they don't have a
dynamic running game. They're not not running you know, toss sweeps.
They don't have Jamier Gibbs, they don't have any of
these athletes in the backfield. And I just don't believe
in them. And I do believe in this this Colt
team to keep it close. So yeah, I'm taking the
three and a half points. If this was south of three,
(25:58):
maybe I'd consider it. But three and a half, I
can't see how this isn't a game. I mean, Indy
has Indy gave the Rams their best game of one
of their best games of the year. They would have
won head a Donnie Mitchell not just drop the ball
walking into the end zone. You know. They beat the
heck out of the Chargers, who at that time were
one of the better teams. Yeah, I believe in that.
(26:19):
I believe in the Colts to keep it close, and
I don't really believe in the Chiefs, So yeah, give
me the Colts. I'm going back to the well.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
I think some of the reservation is we all remember
most what we just saw. So we saw Daniel Jones
vomit him, vomit all over himself against Pittsburgh, right, six
turnovers for the team, they lose, and then we see
them on that Island game in the morning, and Atlanta
was working them and Atlanta should have won that game.
And you're like, Okay, are people figuring out stich in
Uh and Daniel Jones? And there is some concern that, Okay,
(26:48):
Spags is smart. My only thing is, I don't I
think Casey was all in on that Denver game, and
I think they're starting from scratch going against the Colts here,
whereas the Colts have had now two weeks to game
from a homes I just think that's a big edge.
I'm rooting Courts. I don't think I have the stones
to put Colts in the contest.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
Yeah, I haven't decided my contest card, but I definitely
will be in the conversation. For me, I think this
line is just artificially inflated due to the fact that
people just don't want to believe that the Chiefs are done.
And I get it. I get the I get the
concern on the on the Colts. But look, we've we've
seen Pittsburgh has this voodoo from time to time where
(27:29):
they just get these random five turnover games. They did
it to New England, they did it to the Colts.
But if Pittsburgh played New England or the Colts again,
would you feel comfortable taking Pittsburgh. I wouldn't. I feel
very comfortable taking the Patriots or the Colts versus Pittsburgh.
We just know that Pittsburgh once a month has a
voodoo game. That's just been there's a reason why Tomlin's
(27:50):
gone five hundred every year with not very good teams.
It's because he wins like some of the games he's
supposed to, and then he voodoos a couple of games
he shouldn't. And I think that's no different with the Colts.
Atlanta's got a talented roster and they've got playmakers. And
even though I don't like them this week, it's because
a lot of the playmakers are out. But it didn't
(28:11):
really surprise me that Atlanta gave him a football game
over there. And yeah, this this Atlanta team we're dissecting
this week is not really the Atlanta team they played
two weeks ago. So I think it's kind of like
revisionist history to just, you know, not give them credit
for winning that game. But the one thing the Colts
are really good at is running the football, and they're
(28:31):
great at play action. The Chiefs are really bad against
play actions. So I definitely think there will be options
opportunities there for Daniel Jones. And again, I just really
don't believe in this Chiefs offense. I don't really think
they're good. They just don't have enough playmakers. Kelsey's old,
he's not as reliable. He's not reliable. And Rashid Rice
(28:52):
is is good, but I don't think he's the one
that everybody wants him to be. Zave You're worthy, I
mean nothing special, Yeah, I mean I don't think he's
had more than eight points all year or definitely not Chins.
Rice has come back, and Hollywood Browns just or whatever,
and Taekwon Thornton's an arm punt guy that you hope
you connect with once. I mean, there's just really not
(29:13):
a lot out there that scares me. The weapons are
are better on the Colts, which is crazy, you know,
So we're getting better weapons, We're getting you know, Warren.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Yeah, actually you're right head to head to probably straight up.
The Colts are better at running.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Back sounds and the hammer. Jonathan Taylor best running back
in the league right now, so I mean pretty good.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
All right, Let's go to Eagles Cowboys. This is tough,
so I'm probably gonna avoid this. I haven't seen if
this is three and a half or three in the contest,
but it sounds like the world loves Dallas here. Lane
Johnson's out, gotta go Dallas. I just I remember that
first meeting where Dallas played great, but Jalen Carter had
the spinting incident, didn't play once the entire game, not
one play, and as a result, Javonte Williams was like
(29:55):
running up the middle. Dak was under no pressure, could
deliver the ball, Seede lamb out a couple of And
now you add Jalen Carter in the middle and Jalen Phillips,
who's like a game wrecker all of a sudden coming
from the Dolphins, and it's like, is Dallas. I know,
we saw them drop thirty three on the Raiders and
score will This is the Eagles defense. They're not doing that.
(30:16):
So I mean, if anything, I would like to take
the Eagles at three, but at three and a half,
I don't think so, And I don't I don't. I
just don't trust the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
Well, we seem to be a line today, which is
not always. So Yeah, it's nice to see that we
have a pretty good alignment. Look, I mean we saw
with Dallas what Dallas is versus the elite defenses they
went to they went to Denver and they just they
just got trucked. Yeah, I do I like Dallas. I
like this team I like them when they're playing bad offenses,
(30:48):
not offense, when they're playing bad defenses. Yeah, I mean,
Philly just basically shut out the Detroit Lions and the
Green Bay Packers back to back. You know, those are
two teams that at the time they played them, we're
both power rated in the top six to eight teams
in the NFL. And they basically shut them out. That
(31:12):
is pretty impressive. This defense is doing things that we
haven't seen in a long time. And although I really
like what Dallas has, I think Philly's just too physical
for him. I mean I really do. I think they're
too physical. The corners are good enough to hang with
these receivers, and yeah, I like Dallas. I like Dallas
a lot. I love them on Monday Night, and I'm
(31:34):
going to like Dallas in some other spots. I might
even like them next, you know, on Thanksgiving versus the Chiefs.
But Philly's a different animal, man, they really are. They're
playing a different brand of football and you've got to
be able to match them body for body, blow for blow,
and I don't think Dallas has the dudes for that.
Speaker 2 (31:52):
Yeah, I think Dallas could be like a spoiler in
the Wildcard race. Yeah, that Thanksgiving Day game against the
Chiefs is going to be huge. See if the Chiefs
lose to the Colts. All right, do you want to
pick a final one that you're circling that's moderately interesting.
There's a lot of wacky lines like Lions are big favorites,
Patriots were, Seattle's huge. I don't even know what the
(32:14):
next best game is.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Yeah, there's not a whole There's not a whole lot
of great games this week. I will say one game
that I really do like this week is I like
the Lions. I think that the Lions just absolutely roll
this Giants team. What we have with the Lions is
a team that loves to come out after they play
(32:36):
bad games, and they really can't. They have the offense
that can really pour it on bad defenses, and the
Giants cannot stop the run. What are the Lions really
good at running the football indoors? And I think the
thing that makes Jackson Dart so tough is just his
(32:57):
willingness to run around. Day Ball was willing to call
run plays for him. Well, now Dave Ball got fired
because they ran the quarterback too much. The OCU who's
now promoted is one of the leading contenders for this job.
Do you think that he wants to call plays to
get his quarterback concussed again? I mean, I think the
one thing that he has to do to get this
(33:18):
job is just be like, put kid gloves on him.
He's got to wrap him in bubble wrap. I mean,
if you go out and you call a play and
Jackson Dart goes out there and he gets hit and
he gets concussed again, You're not getting this job.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
That's a good point.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
I really think that this is a spot that you
just protect Jackson Dart and you just run the football
and you call quick plays and you just try to
protect your guy. And the Lions they're out to prove
they're out to prove that like last week was a fluke,
and we know Dan Campbell doesn't like to take his
foot off the gas, So ten points in a Lions
(33:54):
game just doesn't really scare me too much. So I'm
willing to lay the wood here with the Lions. That'll
probably be one of my favorite games.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports radio
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listen live.
Speaker 2 (34:13):
Now, that's interesting. The dart angle is a good one.
By the way, update from Thursday's practice, he was limited
as a non contact participant. It does seem like a
stretch that he's going from no contact at all to
playing Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions defense on the road, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
I mean regardless. I mean, if we get Jamis like
Bowie even more, Oh, that's a lock. Yeah, I mean
we already we already know that the Giants defense isn't
going to stop the Lions, and we know that Jameis
Winston is gonna throw four picks. So yeah, look, load
up the wheelbarrows. If we got if we got Jamis
in there.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Well, finally, real quick though, Jacksonville Arizona. I feel like
if you go Jacksonville, you're buying it a high off
the Chargers win or the win over the Chargers. And
then if you take Arizona, you're taking a team that
you know. Jacoby Prisett put up monster numbers against the Niners.
Why can't you do it against Jacksonville. I don't know
what to do with this game, but I feel like
(35:08):
Liam Cohen is doing a good job as a first
year head coach, and I feel like Gannon is a
dead man walking now. He looks like he's gonna get
Will Johnson back in the secondary, which is huge because
their defense is terrible and he's a defensive coach. Is
this a savior job kind of game for Gannon or
do you feel like they're just cook gets over? Kyler's done,
The injuries are mounting. Eventually things are going to catch
(35:30):
up with percent.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Well, I feel like that. I feel like Gannon is
just done. I mean, I don't really think at this
point he's saving his job because it's a different situation,
like if Prissette was this young guy and it's like, Okay,
we've put Murray on the shelf to bring in Persett
because he's a young guy and he's you know, maybe
(35:53):
we can build around him and let's show what we
can do over the last four weeks. I think he's
basically just thrown it in at this point. Looksette is
what he is. We know that he's not really an
NFL starter, and he's fine. He's doing some things. He's
putting up some fantasy numbers if you if you know,
if you're into that kind of stuff. But I don't really,
(36:17):
I don't know. This game is probably the one game,
one game where I'm just like, I have no idea.
You know, five minutes you asked me. Five minutes from now,
I'll like Jacksonville. Five minutes later, I'll like Arizona. I mean,
these two teams, the variance is off the charts. Both
these quarterbacks can throw a lot of interceptions. They both
can throw touchdowns. They both have defenses that sometimes you're like, Wow,
(36:39):
this is a great defense, and other times you're like,
let me start all my fantasy guys against them. You
have two coaches that are somewhat unpredictable. Yeah, I just really,
from a betting standpoint, I don't really want any part
of this game from a guy who has future bets
on Chiefs not making the playoffs and Broncos to win
the division and Ravens to win the AFC. I'm just
(37:00):
rooting for Jacksonville. I need Jacksonville to steal that playoff
spot from the Chiefs. So yeah, I'll just watch this
game and refer roof for Trevor, which is not the
most fun thing to do from time to time. I mean,
there he's running around there and he throws the ball
up and you're like no, no, no, and yeah yeah
sometimes it's sometimes it's picked.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
So oh, I forgot. I am on Seattle going to
Tennessee minus thirteen, fourteen, whatever number is. However, as an
interesting twist, tell me what you think about this, I
actually bet Tennessee first quarter plus three. I don't usually
do this, but I am curious. Seattle off of a
really tough game against the Rams divisional matchup, A lot
(37:40):
of energy was spent. I wonder if it takes him
a little bit of time to refocus and they come
out a little sloppy. You remember the Chargers went there
to Tennessee. Think did they get an easy win? And
they were down after the first quarter, gave up a
punt return touchdown, and had to pick six.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
I just wonder if.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Tennessee can does something early and then Seattle wakes up.
I know they've bludgeoned like a I think it was
Arizona Saints. They'll take you behind the woodshit. If you're bad.
Tennessee is bad, so that could happen. I just don't
know that. I see them coming out with fire and
vigor for a lowly crappy team and so I bet
Tennessee first quarter, but full game Seattle. Is that process
(38:16):
interest you?
Speaker 3 (38:18):
Yeah, that's not normally a way that I go. I
don't really do many things outside of the actual game itself.
But my kind of thought on this game just in general,
is that Sam Darnold had been having an MVP caliber
year up until the Rams game, and he got a
(38:38):
lot of I guess flak from the national media, and
his players stepped up and then they were like, we
wouldn't be here without Sam. Sam's our guy. And we
saw what when they're willing to throw the football that
against a d line that can't get pressure on him.
What he can do in that Washington game on Sunday
(39:02):
night when he just you know, I think he had
the highest efficiency half of the year of football or whatever,
and they scored thirty five points. We saw them do
the same thing against the Cardinals. I think that this
is a statement game for the Seattle Seahawks to say,
you know what, we could win this game by running,
we could win this game by defense, we could win
(39:23):
this game by throwing. But you know what we're going
to show you, Sam Donald. We're going to get his
numbers back up we're going to build this confidence. We're
going to give him the game ball. We're going to
have some inspirational speech about how he didn't quit and
we always believed in him. And it's beating Tennessee, which
at the end of the day is probably not going
to mean a whole lot. But I think they I
think they're going to want to get Sam back going.
(39:45):
So from a fantasy perspective, if you're like, you know,
if you have quarterbacks that are on by and and
Sam Donald's out there or something, I think he's a
strong option this week. I actually picked him up in
one of my big leagues where I have Dak and
I'm a little concerned about Philly defense, you know, slowing
them down a little bit, and I'm going to start
Sam Darnold this week. I think that he could really
post one of those three hundred and three eight type games.
(40:07):
So wow, yeah, I would. I would possibly, you know.
And I know people don't like to go to the
quarterbacks on these blowout games because they think, well, you know,
it's going to turn into a running game late. But
I think sometimes these coaches just like to prop up
their best players and be like, you know what, let
me staff pad this guy so that we can get
excited about him. And this looks like a really good
(40:29):
spot after, you know, the toughest of weeks that he's
had with those four interceptions against the Rounds.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
Only mild concern. I'm seeing the kids. Zabel on the
interior of the offensive line for Seahawks is not practicing hurt.
He's not great at guard, but their interior Both of
their guards rank really low on Pro Football Focus, and
their center does as well. And what does Tennessee have
Simmons and Sweat in the middle who are pretty good,
So maybe they try to take away the run and
(40:55):
force Donald to throw. I haven't checked the weather yet,
still doing some work on this game, but I I'm kind
of with you Seattle in a low scoring affair. All right,
David Baker, are you play any more poker tournaments the
rest of the year?
Speaker 3 (41:07):
Yeah, this's Uh, December is a big poker time in
the calendar.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
Why is it?
Speaker 3 (41:13):
The World Poker Tour has their championship at the at
the Win, which is right down the street from me
here in Las Vegas, So I'll be at the Win
most of December playing tournaments there, and uh, you know,
they got one where first he'll be five million, so
I'll be trying to take down that price while I'm
still hopefully battling in Survivor and sweating you and Survivor
(41:34):
and all the good stuff. So uh yeah, keep the
text coming. Let's uh, let's let's get to the finish line,
said Survivor and poker.
Speaker 2 (41:41):
So it sounds like you're at the level in the
poker world where you probably have to go around with
like a fai length of bodyguards, right, I mean you
just dominant. Everybody knows who you are. Is that a
thing in Vegas?
Speaker 3 (41:52):
No? Not really, I mean you can no. I'm uh,
you know, thanks. I wish it was as cool as
you made it out to be.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
You know, Steven A. Smith rolls around with bodyguards. I'm
not kidding.
Speaker 3 (42:03):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, well Stephen A. Smith is national media.
I mean you get on a plane and everybody's like, oh,
that's Stephen A. Smith. Get on the plane by me,
and they're like, move your leg I need to get in. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (42:15):
Right, you're not flying with the with the unwashed masses.
We know you're going private anyways. All right, David Baker,
congrats on the podcast. You want to plug it one
more time.
Speaker 3 (42:25):
Yeah, gamble up pod. You can find it on every
podcatcher and YouTube you know. On YouTube there's a video version,
and on Spotify and Apple And if you're into Survivor,
Survivor Sweat is a marketplace where you can buy and
sell pieces of Survivor entries. And on Saturday nights at
six forty five Pacific, we do an hour, hour and
(42:48):
fifteen minutes. We have great poker guests, gambling guests all
the time, and we talk about Circus Survivor, who we
chose this week, why we chose them, why we think
some teams were good picks, and Survivor why we didn't
think so. And it's kind of a roundtable around the
horn type discussion. And it's good. I mean, we've just
been picking up viewers every every week six forty five.
(43:09):
You can find it on x you can find it
on my ex handle au David B and Survivor Sweat.
So yeah, join us on Saturday nights on that and
please listen to the pod.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
How many are left in Circa Survivor, by the.
Speaker 3 (43:24):
Way, I think like nine hundred and forty more my gosh, Yeah,
there's a lot. First is eighteen million though, so the
prize is worth.
Speaker 2 (43:32):
Eighteen million if you you don't think one person's gonna
win it.
Speaker 3 (43:35):
Right, No, Now, really, the only way that he gets
down to I think single digits is if Philly and
or Baltimore lose on Thanksgiving, especially Philly, Philly's going to
have probably half the contest is going to be on
Philly on Thanksgiving against in Chicago. Not because people feel
(43:56):
great about it, but because a lot of people have
already used Baltimore and a lot of people have already
use Detroit. So you know, you're kind of like.
Speaker 2 (44:03):
Detroit's playing Green Bay. That's the we're doing that.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
Yeah, yeah, so you really don't want to play Detroit. Really,
it's Baltimore or Philly are the two spots. You could
take Kansas City against Dallas, But I mean, what that
line's going to be three points maybe? I mean, if
Philly's three and a half at Dallas, what's case they
can't be more than Philly.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
So ideally you have two entries left for Thanksgiving.
Speaker 3 (44:24):
Right currently, I have two entries left. One will yeah,
one would be on Philly, one will be on Baltimore.
So yeah, I'm just hoping that like they both don't
get clipped, but not even that upset if one of
them does, because I kind of wouldn't mind having one
of four hundred opposed to two of nine to fifty,
so you know, it's uh, it wouldn't be the worst
(44:44):
thing in the world to see one of them get
clipped there, and yeah, it's kind of fun.
Speaker 2 (44:49):
So all right, good luck, buddy, I appreciate it, appreciate
your right talk to you soon.
Speaker 3 (44:54):
All right. Thanks.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
The only thing better than sitting on your cow watching
the game, he's making money while you do it. Here's
your best bet.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
All right, great stuff from David Baker. Between that and
talking Bill's Texans. We're running out of time here, so
I'm not gonna spend time going through every single NFL
game in college game, I'll just give you the stuff
I bet in college. I'm on my JMU Duke's minus
thirteen and a half. I am on New Mexico the
(45:27):
Lobos minus three. Oregon, Yes, Oregon minus nine and a
half against USC. I know it's at ten. I just
prefer nine and a half. I know you probably don't
want to play the pay the juice, but I'm I'm
going minus nine and a half minus one twenty. I'm
on Duke minus seven Notre Dame, Yes, Notre Dame length
thirty five, Gotta love lanth thirty five. The quick logic
(45:49):
there is did you see Notre Dame was like a
big part of the college football playoff discussion, like, hey,
Notre Dame hasn't done anything Miami blah blah blah. I
wonder if Mark because Freeman saw that, and it's like,
you know, guys, we're not calling off the dogs early here,
We're putting up. Let's show these mfs what's going on
that we're legit and let's hang eighty on roast beef tech.
(46:11):
So I am laying the thirty five with Notre Dame
LSU minus twenty three. I don't know why I'm doing that.
Missouri getting eight. It's interesting. Bo Prabula, the quarterback who
was injured, looks like he's coming back. Somebody who listens
to this podcast knows him well, thinks he's like a
future NFL quarterback. I don't know. We'll see plus eight
minus one twenty Ohio State minus thirty one minus one twenty. Yeah,
(46:37):
a lot of juice, and then Duke minus sevens for
college football NFL I did go a little crazy. Now
I've had a couple really, really good weeks in a row. Okay,
there's a chance for a pullback this weekend. I'm just
putting you on noticed totals panthersners over forty eight, Giants,
(46:57):
Lions over Fiftyhawks, Titans under forty and a half, and
what other NFL I did take the three and a
half with the Cowboys. I already regret it. After talking
to Baker, I'm like, why would I take the three
and a half? That was so stupid. I bet it
earlier in the week. Just you know, this is why
you don't bet on Tuesday Wednesday. You think you're hot,
(47:18):
You're like, oh, I got this, Cowboys getting three and
a half. I don't like it. I'll probably try to
buy out of it. In game. I'm on the Lions
minus ten minus one twenty New Orleans Saints minus two,
Bears minus three. Bad line early in the week, thought
Rogers was out I'm an idiot. And then Seahawks minus thirteen.
That's all I've got so far. No idea what I'm
(47:40):
doing in the contest, but I am looking Saints and
Lions or two of the top ones. I kind of
like the Rams, but I just saw two of their
tight ends, one on IR and one of their DB's
who's really good Lake. I'm like, damn, and then Joe Burrow.
Stuff's messing me up. So this Saturday morning is going
to be a game time decision for the contest. But
survivor Lamar's back at practice, so we're going Ravens and folks.
(48:04):
It's gonna be a sweat, as it always is. Everybody
who's taken off safe travels. The holiday madness begins. Hopefully
the rain is complete here in Los Angeles. I can't
take any more of this. I don't know. It's been
so long since I've been around bad weather. I just
don't I don't know how you guys operate. My dog
doesn't want to go outside. I don't want to go outside.
I barely want to go to the gym. The rain sucks,
(48:26):
but it's gonna warm up and it should be in
the seventies this week here in southern California. Enjoy the weekend.
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
What is up, Straight Fire Fan, It's me Jason McIntyre,
Straight Fayre for Friday, November twenty First, Oh my goodness,
ladies and gentlemen. Did we have a game last night?
Woh crazy, crazy Houston Buffalo game. We'll talk about that
momentarily amazing guest, one of your favorites, David Baker, big
(00:34):
time poker player, big time NFL gambler, stops by Little
survivor a little Week twelve run through the card. We
agree on a lot this week. I don't know if
that's a good or bad thing. And then at the
end of the podcast we'll do some some best bets,
that stuff that I've bet already a lot of money
in play, and I don't It's not been a great week.
Lost Illinois two nights ago in college hoops, and then
(00:56):
last night wasn't great. I gotta be honest. What to
make of the Buffalo Bills at this point, folks, you
go on the road against Davis Mills in Houston and
you lose. Your offense looks like hot garbage, with the
exception of an incredible in just an unbelievable play call,
on fourth and twenty seven, the hook and ladder goes
for forty four yards. That was the highlight of the
(01:17):
game by a mile. Otherwise it was ugly. Josh Allen
on his back all night. Eight sacks taken, the most
in his career. Bills were inept in the red zone,
zero for two, three turnovers. If they don't get a
kickoff return for touchdown, I mean they kind of get
blown out here, right A really poor performance. I thought
rock bottom was when they call a fourth and one
(01:38):
half back dive I think right around the twenty five
yard line, and Josh Allen is livid, comes over the sideline,
slams his helmet, looks at the backup quarterback and mounts
what are we doing? And it's very clear from that
moment Brian daboles phone probably lit up. And I will
guarantee you that the Brian Dable who was just fired
by the New York Giants is brought in this week
(01:59):
or week as an advisor quote for the Buffalo Bills offense,
because that was ghastly, Ladies and gentlemen, James Cook, they're
supposed to be unbelievable when he has over one hundred
yards rushing Cook was extraordinary, broke off the forty five
yard TD run, seventeen carries for a buck sixteen, and
for some reason, he barely was on the field in
the fourth quarter, didn't get many carries, and I just
(02:21):
I did not understand the play call. Keon Coleman was
a late scratch, healthy scratch. That's two weeks in a row,
and there are reports out there from Buffalo Beat writers
that the Bills are trying to do everything they can
to get this guy's act together, and at the same time,
they're also looking through trash cans around the league trying
to pick up guys to make the team. Gabe David.
(02:42):
They're throwing a Gabe Davis on the game winning drive
that he was in Street Closes two weeks ago. Gabe
Davis is now running routes for the Buffalo Bills. I
know people want to say, well, they just don't have receivers, folks.
This is on the GM. He had such an ego
that they didn't draft a receiver early enough, and then
they had another chance at the deadline and they just
(03:04):
decided we're good, We're gonna rock with what we got.
That is, I don't know if that's a fireable offense.
But this is the year Buffalo should have gone all in.
This is the year that Joe Burrow's hurt and the
Bengals ain't going to the playoffs. Lamar Jackson was hurt earlier.
The Chiefs are down bad. I mean, the freaking Colts
and the Broncos are the best teams in the AFC.
(03:25):
Like say that out loud. The Chargers are injured. I
don't think they're gonna get to the playoffs. If you
look at the schedule, they're in trouble, and you're telling
me you're not gonna go all in at the deadline
and get Josh Allen something to help him. I don't
know what to say about Buffalo at this point. Now
do I know? The right tackle went down, but that's
not how you get give up eight sacks. Will Anderson
(03:48):
was an absolute menace off the edge. What's his name,
Dion Dawkins did not look anything like the All Pro
that he has been in the past. He got worked, guys.
The Hunter had two sacks, two tackles for loss. Hunter
three quarterback hits, Will Anderson three quarterback hits. The Buffalo
Bills quarterback who ain't gonna win MVP this year. Was
(04:09):
hit twelve times. I'm seeing twenty eight pressures. He had
no time to throw. And I don't know, guys. I
have future tickets on Buffalo. I have that you know,
home run hitting matchup where it's like, oh yeah, Buffalo
versus the Rams and the Super Bowl. I have a
bunch of that stuff involving the Bills, and I watched
(04:29):
them now go to Miami and lose. They went to
Atlanta lost, They go to Houston and lout. These are
not good teams. And you're trying to tell me that
the Buffalo Bills go on the road and win three
straight playoff games. I don't know how that happens. I
just I cannot see that in any world. Can they
win one or two, yeah, without question, but three you
tell me they're gonna win three tickets. They're not even
(04:51):
good on the road this season, and the injuries are
starting to mount. I'm sure you saw Bernard. They're good linebacker.
He went down, Epanesza went down. Bar looks like a
multi week injury. Something with his elbow. The safety of
the young burner in the secondary. I'm space at Hairston.
He went down. It was a body back game. I mean,
Houston's was flying around. This was the Houston team that
(05:14):
I had bet on earlier this season when they lost
to Tampa in primetime, right when they lost to Settle.
I didn't bet on him against Seattle in primetime the Broncos.
I mean they losed. That wasn't in primetime, but you know,
you know what I'm saying, Like it was a close
game and they lose to the Broncos. I had him.
I had him in the game against the Bucks and
they lost. And I think I had him in that
(05:35):
first meeting against the Jags and they lost. They hadn't
really want any close games. Here's the wackiness, and it's
similar to the Mac Jones Brock party thing. Davis Mills
is like competent. Now listen, I'm not saying Davis Mills
is better than Res Stroud or he's taking his job
or anything remotely close to that. But Davis Mills showed
(05:56):
me some competency.
Speaker 3 (05:57):
You know what.
Speaker 2 (05:57):
He didn't do lose the game. He was only six
a thirty for a buck fifty three two. He did
throw two touchdowns. I mean he's throwing a Jayden Higgins,
Christian Kirk, I totally forgot about that guy. I'm kind
of sort of stunned. Now, I'm not gonna go overboard
and say Buffalo is not making the playoffs. Don't make
the playoffs. The schedule hold on. I had the remaining
(06:17):
schedules here, Buffalo has the oh wait, wait, where is
it Buffalo? So on this website Tankathon they have hardest
remaining schedules. Buffalo checks in at nineteenth. They have a
game against the Patriots and again that's going to be
a revenge spot. Eagles, Steelers, oh what else? They got
(06:41):
here and they got Jets. That's a win. Browns that's
probably a win. And Bengals, we'll see it looks like
Burrow's going to be back. I don't know. I mean, hell,
that isn't not an easy schedule. But here's the thing.
For Houston, that's an incredible win because they're battling the
Chargers and their battle the Kansas City Chiefs for a
(07:03):
playoff Berth and again CJ. Stroud should be back next week.
Woody Marks looks pretty good in the backfield, like they
have a decent team. Again. The defense continue to wreak
havoc like it did tonight. I mean goodness, gracious, that
was an amazing performance. They Oh, they have games left
against the Colts, Chiefs and Chargers. Holy hell too against
(07:25):
the Colts. So Houston, probably more so than anybody, controls
its own destiny, right. If they are able to sweep
the Colts, then they could get back in position and
maybe steal the division. Unlikely, but it's possible. That game
against the Chiefs is a Sunday night football game, and
that is enormous. Oh wait a minute, at twelve seven,
eight twenty Yeah, yeah, Sunday Night Football NBC. That's huge
(07:47):
because we know the Chief's weaknesses tackle and if will
Anderson and Hunter are healthy, they're gonna be They're gonna
be down Patrick Mahomes's throat. Obviously you'll need Stroud for
that one. But this was one of those Holy hell.
This goes back to what we were saying, like week
two or week three, is anybody good? I think it's
a legitimate question. At the same time, you know, Buffalo
(08:09):
shows up. Currently they fall to sixth in the AFC.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, they don't, it would be
Patriots hosting the Jags, Colts hosting the Bills, Steelers, Chargers,
I think the Bills would beat the Colts. Bills would
be favored, not by much, but they'd be favored. All right.
Without further ado, let's get to our guest poker player gambler,
(08:31):
David Baker.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 2 (08:39):
I know what sports fans wants, but for.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
Everything he doesn't he knows the guy who does. Let's
just say I know a guy who knows the guy
who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
All right, let's welcome back to straight fire mister David Baker.
He is the Vegas NFL contest guy, poker superstar. It's
so funny. Time I hit him up, He's like, oh yeah,
I'm on a golf course with Mookie Betts. Now he's
just got some crazy stuff going on. David, how are you? Man?
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Man? Let's keep the intro going, loving love love loving it.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
First of all, how was it golfing with Pedro Martinez
in company?
Speaker 3 (09:15):
It was crazy, like Pedro's Pedro is like one of
my top five athletes of all time, and just I
didn't get to golf with him, but he was out
there and ran into him and couldn't have been nicer. Yeah,
it was. It was cool. I was out there at
Shadow Creek. Anybody who knows anything about golf in Vegas,
it's like one of the most prestigious like golf courses
around and TNT filmed the Major League Baseball event and
(09:41):
it was so I guess. They had a tournament where
each team had a past and a present player play,
and they had the day before they had a pro
am at Scramble and we got matched up with Major
League Baseball players. We played nine holes with Will Smith,
series hero, eleventh inning home run guy for the Dodgers
(10:04):
for sure catcher, and it was just cool, Like, I mean,
obviously that guy's on cloud nine right now, and just yeah,
just to be out there with him and someone who's
like he's so small in stature, Like it's you know,
you see a lot of these athletes and they're like
so much bigger than you. It's like, oh, yeah, that
guy's an athlete, and you see Will Smith and he's
like my size, and it's like, this guy's out here
(10:26):
catching eighteen innings of baseball and hitting home runs and
blocking pitches and you know, holding his foot on the
base for just like the game clinching out and just
I mean amazing, amazing, just like being out there with him,
and yeah it was fun and yeah, just cool to
be out there and this life, this game on life's
(10:48):
kind of giving me, like some pretty cool opportunities. Saw
Mookie Betts and Mett Pedro and whatnot. So yeah, it
was fun time out there.
Speaker 2 (10:56):
It's good to be a big time poker player. Also,
I mean, they probably know you for poker. I don't
know if they don't, you find it.
Speaker 3 (11:04):
Honest, Jason, they didn't. They don't know me. But that's okay.
You know, in my own little world, we'll just think
that we're like.
Speaker 2 (11:09):
Oh, yeah, you guys are buddies.
Speaker 3 (11:11):
Yeah, there's the D listers and then there's me. But
you know, I'm on a list, so that's okay. You know,
I get to do this stuff. So regardless, Hey.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
You only live one life, man, live it up, enjoy it.
I don't know about enjoying this weekend in NFL. So
let's start with Survivor. Obviously, we were in the Survivor contest.
You you fronted most of the money. I just paid
a little and we took that brutal Arizona loss. I
still don't think there'll be a tougher loss this season
than Arizona melting against Tennessee, so we don't need to
(11:39):
revisit that. But for instance, you're still alive in a
survivor Me and a buddy are in a local one,
and we were gonna go Baltimore this weekend and then Wednesday.
Lamar Jackson doesn't practice. Now he's back today. As we
record this on Thursday, I feel like the Ravens are safe.
We're good. How are you handicapping this week because it's difficult.
Joe Burrow's returning, so people probably wanted to take Patriots,
(12:00):
but a Burrow as of now may start that line's cratering.
You got Chadurs starting, do you automatically fade him and
roll the dice with the Raiders. The Rams have some
major injuries. I had like them against the Bucks. There's
the Lions if anybody has them. But Jackson Dart now
looks like he's going to clear a concussion protocol. A
lot of stuff up in the air as you record
(12:21):
on Thursday.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Yeah, I mean, I think it basically just comes down
to your survivor contest, the one that I'm still alive
in is the Circa contest where you have to use
a Thanksgiving team and a Christmas team. So Baltimore becomes
more of the question with Circa because you really incentivize
to save them because they do play on Thanksgiving, and
(12:44):
although Joe Burrow might be back, they're still going to
be probably the biggest or second biggest favorite on the
board that week, next to Philly for Chicago. And we
know Chicago's playing some good football, and we know Philly sometimes,
you know, can't get that offense moving. So I think
it basically comes down to that if you're in a
survivor pool, when you have Baltimore at this point in
the season and you do not have to save them
(13:06):
for Christmas, I don't see a reason not to unload
them here. I mean, you put Lamar back there in
a wheelchair and I'll take them, like I mean, I mean,
this is the Jets, this is Tyra, this is Tyrod Taylor.
I mean, no Garrett Wilson, no Garrett Wilson obviously, no Sauce,
no Quinton, Like I mean, they traded part of their team.
You have a coach that just flailing out there, and
(13:29):
I think I'd be even I mean I might be
like one percent worried with the Ravens if they had
gone out and just you know, blown out the Browns.
But because they were so bad versus the Browns, I
think they have to be serious. I mean, they know
they they know that they're not the Ravens that they're
supposed to be, and so I think they feel like
(13:51):
they probably need to put a whooping on somebody. And
who better than the New York Jets. I mean, this
team is this seems as bad as it gets, So yeah,
I mean, if I'm not it, if I in your situation,
I'm just clicking Baltimore and forgetting about it. My situation
is a little different. If I had Seattle left, I
would consider them. I mean, we know Tennessee is one
of the worst, and you know, again another team that
(14:14):
wasn't didn't live up to their expectations last week, and
I think goes out and tries to really put a
statement game against Tennessee. So I would like Seattle if
I had them available. But I don't have Seattle, and
I really don't want to use Baltimore. So now I'm
down to San Francisco or maybe the Raiders. I mean,
I don't hate the Raiders spot. To be honest, I
think Chador might be one of the worst quarterbacks we've
(14:38):
ever seen at this stage in his career. Like, I'm
not saying that he might not learn as.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
Sixty passes come on, that's harsh.
Speaker 3 (14:45):
Wow, I'm just saying at this point, like, I just
don't expect anything. I look here, here's the truth of
the matter. There's a reason why he dropped to the
fifth round in the draft, and there's a reason why
the Cleveland Browns were starting Dylan Gabriel, who by all
accounts is one of the worst quarterbacks we've seen in
(15:06):
a long time, be out there and play. And they
didn't even say, you know what, let's let's go half
and half and mix up and give each of these
guys some snaps because maybe Shudor can take a spot
they were locked in. We're giving Dylan Gabriel the starts.
So to me, that just tells me they know what
they have in that building and they don't really like
(15:26):
it might be proven wrong. And you know, we know
that the Raiders are bad, So I mean, yeah, it's
obviously a big leap of faith, but I'm willing to
take it. I don't believe in Shador at this point.
I'm not saying that he won't be anybody, but I
think it's it's all hype, all smoke, a lot of mirrors.
Speaker 2 (15:44):
Did you see his offensive lineman was like when Shador
ran on the field, he was motioning to the crowd
to make noise and we had to tell him, bro, Bro,
we're at home. It's a fourth quarter. Please don't tell
the crowd to be loud. We need to quiet for
the staff. Count Like that's how excited to do them with?
I don't know. I definitely wouldn't roll the dice with
the Raiders. I'll quickly ask Niners Panthers, would you consider
(16:06):
Sanfrian or is Carolina playing good that they're kind of
plucky now with Rego Doubtele and Bryce Young off a
four hundred and fifty yard game.
Speaker 3 (16:14):
Well, I think it all comes down to how you
view playing Survivor. If you view playing Survivor as I
want the best chance to survive this week, and they're
your best option, then go ahead and play them. If
you play more of a game theory Survivor pool where
you are really looking for big chunks of the pool
to lose on any given week so that the pool
(16:36):
will be reduced. I think San Francisco is a pretty
good fade. I think in most pools they're going to
be in the thirty percent ow wow, and as a
seven point favorite with some upcoming spots. I mean, they
play Tennessee coming up, and they play Cleveland coming up,
so they have some really good opportunities later to use them.
(16:57):
I think I just probably feel comfortable hoping that, you know,
this seven point team can win. I mean, we do
know that Carolina is a way different team on the
road than they are at home, but you.
Speaker 2 (17:13):
Just want to at Atlanta for what it's worth.
Speaker 3 (17:15):
I mean, yeah, exactly, Alta and the team's coming together.
I mean we did see Carolina kind of last year
at the end of the year start to become a
better unit. So yeah, I mean Carolina is going to
be out there. They're going to throw everything they've got
at them, and yeah, I mean we think San Francisco
is kind of back a little bit. But if they're
back then then I'm plenty comfortable saving them for the
(17:39):
future when they're going to have Tennessee and Cleveland coming up,
and if we're getting Shador and we're getting cam Ward.
I mean, I feel very comfortable with those spots. Why
play them now? If you have a valid option. Now,
if you've used Baltimore and you've used Seattle, and you've
used Green Bay and Detroit, then yeah, maybe you're stuck
in that situation. But if you have a better team,
(18:03):
I feel very comfortable saving San Francisco and hoping that
they lose and we lose, you know, twenty five to
thirty percent of the pool.
Speaker 1 (18:11):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app. Search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
All right, let's go through some of the games I
have bet New Orleans against Atlanta. Obviously, the Saints are
now favored in this game. Interesting tidbit so the Falcons.
David played in Berlin the overtime game, flew back home
to play Carolina another overtime game. No by weekend between
the Berlin and now without Drake May not Drake May,
(18:45):
without Michael Pennix, and without Drake London, they have to
face the Saints on the road. Now, I'm not saying
the Saints are good, but Atlanta. We saw them without
London and Pennix and they got smashed by the Dolphins.
So I think I'm sorry. I'm on the Saints here,
and I don't think they're good, but they are coming
off a bye. I just think every line thing lines
(19:06):
up like Atlanta in the second half, look like they
ran out of gas. The Panthers just went up and
down the field against them, like two overtime games, international game.
I'm on the Saints.
Speaker 3 (19:15):
Well, I'm right there with you. This is one of
the games I really like this week, and I think
they're kind of a sneaky survivor play too, if you
want to. If you if you're one of those entries
that have used a lot of really good teams and
you've just you know that at some point in the season,
you're going to have to eke out some of one
of these tough games and one of these bad teams.
I like the Saints here, one of my strongest and
(19:40):
and the data nerds and the and the spreadsheet guys
are all gonna you know, they hate when I say
stuff like this, but I like to look at motivation
and one of my things that I really like to
look at later in the year is when teams have
a lot of I guess preseason aspirations and they kind
of realize that it's done, they kind of take seem
(20:03):
to fall off. And then when you also have a
team that knows that they're they've kind of been in
this situation for a while, so them being out of
it doesn't really affect them and it's kind of like, Okay,
now we have to play for our jobs. And Lana
came into the season, they had a lot of preseason expectations.
Last the last two weeks were kind of their last
ditch efforts. Do you believe in Raheem Morris? Do you
(20:26):
believe it? Do you believe in this culture? Do you
believe in this team? And I think that the Falcons
really gave us a resounding no. They don't. The players,
I don't think, really believe in Raheem Morris. I don't
believe in Raheem Morris. And I think this is kind
of a nice little quit spot. Meanwhile, you have the
Saints who are building. They're building for next year. They're
(20:46):
coming off of a bye week, they have the coach
that they like, they have the quarterback that they're trying
to see if he's the guy. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, you've
got a coach they don't like. I'm guessing by their
effort and the way that they've played. You have a
quarterback that I don't think the team believes in. You
have no weapons. So and you're on the road. So
(21:07):
I yeah, I really do like this spot for the Saints,
and it will definitely be on my card this week.
Speaker 2 (21:13):
Right, So I picked, Yeah, you could pick the next one,
and before we go, I will get to the tougher games.
I know nobody, nobody's gonna watch Saints Falcons, but you
and I are.
Speaker 3 (21:22):
You know, I watch it. You gotta watch them all.
You gotta watch them all. You can't have opinions on games.
You can't come in next week and say like, oh,
I like this team versus the Falcons and not have
watched them.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Technically that the four pm slate is is very weak. Yeah,
so is there a game you want to jump on?
Speaker 3 (21:42):
Well, I mean, we can talk about some of the
bigger games, but one of the games that's not a
bigger game is the Bear Steelers. I mean, I don't
know how you really are currently feeling about the Steelers,
but I think there's fraudulent as they come.
Speaker 2 (21:52):
Oh wow, even though the line's dropping and Aaron Rodgers
looks like he's gonna play based on the video at practice.
Speaker 3 (21:58):
I mean, what what is there that you like about
the Steelers? The defense is a complete fraud. The only
time that they ever win games is when they turn
the when they turn teams over four or five times
a game. They have no weapons, they don't have a quarterback.
I trust this game's on the road, it's a short line,
and Chicago's playing with confidence. They're playing with a coach
(22:20):
that that they're playing for. I've always believed in Caleb.
So do I think that Chicago's ready to make them
run in the NFC? No, they're not there. But do
I think that they're better than this Pittsburgh team? Absolutely?
And what this line is basically telling me that these
two teams are equal, and I don't really see it.
I don't really see Pittsburgh being a viable playoff team.
(22:40):
And you know, at some point you've just got to say, yeah,
Chicago's gotten lucky. But I can, on one side, say
I believe in the Broncos and you know, dismiss some
of their luck and say that, you know, They're a
clutch team, and at the same time just dismissed what
Chicago's doing because Chicago and Denver have both lived on
the edges and they both you know, kind of played
with their food with some of their worst teams, but
(23:02):
found ways to win. So winning is contagious, and I
think winning is a trade and a skill, and Chicago
kind of has that right now. And I just don't
believe in Pittsburgh. So laying short of a field goal,
I feel pretty comfortable with Chicago.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Interesting, Yeah, I bet Chicago early in the week. Obviously,
I'm having some buyers remorse Bears by the way negative
six point differential as a division leader. I think they
lead the league in turnovers turnovers generated at least that is,
And yeah, that can always be lucky. But yeah, I
don't like Rogers or anything. Let's go to Colts Chiefs.
So interesting one. Chiefs have the buy, come off of
(23:37):
it and have a huge divisional game with the Broncos.
They don't look that great. The Colts, meanwhile, are off
of a buy and have added Sauce Gardner to the defense.
They have a defensive coordinator who's one of the few
to go to arrowhead and bottle up Mahomes in that
playoff game, Captain Lou, I mean they got a run game.
We saw what the Bills did on the ground with
(23:57):
James Cook to the Chiefs. A lot of stuffing up
here for the Colts, I'm afraid to I took Broncos
last week. I'm afraid to go back to the well
and take the Colts at three and a half or three?
What say you?
Speaker 3 (24:10):
Well, if you follow my Twitter, if you follow my
podcast quick Plug Gamble Up Podcast, then you know that
I'm the resident Chief hater. I've been down on the Chiefs.
I don't believe in this Chiefs team, and also huge
Bonis and Bronco fans. So yeah, that game was pretty sweet.
I look at the Chiefs and you know, I looked
(24:33):
at this game and I wanted to like the Chiefs because,
you know, are they really just going to go away
and just fade quietly into the night. Probably not. But
I look at this game and we have I really
don't like playing teams after they play tough, physical teams
on the road, and that's exactly what Kansas City did.
(24:53):
They played Denver, one of the most physical teams in
the NFL at altitude and they lost. Meanwhile, the Colts
were at home game planning for this Chiefs team. And
I look at this Chiefs team, and I look at
this offense, and I hear all these analysts say this
Chiefs team's better than last year's Chiefs team. Just wait,
and when I watch this Chiefs offense, this is what
(25:15):
I see. I see. They run three plays. They run
Kareem Hunt up the middle for two yards. They run
crossing yards, the crossing routes to receiver rise for two
yards and hope he gets free, but normally he gets tackled.
And they run arm punts. They just throw the ball
fifty yards down the field and hope that they get
interference or that one of their receivers can come down
with the ball. That's literally their entire offense. They don't
(25:37):
run seam patterns, they don't run, they don't have a
dynamic running game. They're not not running you know, toss sweeps.
They don't have Jamier Gibbs, they don't have any of
these athletes in the backfield. And I just don't believe
in them. And I do believe in this this Colt
team to keep it close. So yeah, I'm taking the
three and a half points. If this was south of three,
(25:58):
maybe I'd consider it. But three and a half, I
can't see how this isn't a game. I mean, Indy
has Indy gave the Rams their best game of one
of their best games of the year. They would have
won head a Donnie Mitchell not just drop the ball
walking into the end zone. You know. They beat the
heck out of the Chargers, who at that time were
one of the better teams. Yeah, I believe in that.
(26:19):
I believe in the Colts to keep it close, and
I don't really believe in the Chiefs, So yeah, give
me the Colts. I'm going back to the well.
Speaker 2 (26:24):
I think some of the reservation is we all remember
most what we just saw. So we saw Daniel Jones
vomit him, vomit all over himself against Pittsburgh, right, six
turnovers for the team, they lose, and then we see
them on that Island game in the morning, and Atlanta
was working them and Atlanta should have won that game.
And you're like, Okay, are people figuring out stich in
Uh and Daniel Jones? And there is some concern that, Okay,
(26:48):
Spags is smart. My only thing is, I don't I
think Casey was all in on that Denver game, and
I think they're starting from scratch going against the Colts here,
whereas the Colts have had now two weeks to game
from a homes I just think that's a big edge.
I'm rooting Courts. I don't think I have the stones
to put Colts in the contest.
Speaker 3 (27:08):
Yeah, I haven't decided my contest card, but I definitely
will be in the conversation. For me, I think this
line is just artificially inflated due to the fact that
people just don't want to believe that the Chiefs are done.
And I get it. I get the I get the
concern on the on the Colts. But look, we've we've
seen Pittsburgh has this voodoo from time to time where
(27:29):
they just get these random five turnover games. They did
it to New England, they did it to the Colts.
But if Pittsburgh played New England or the Colts again,
would you feel comfortable taking Pittsburgh. I wouldn't. I feel
very comfortable taking the Patriots or the Colts versus Pittsburgh.
We just know that Pittsburgh once a month has a
voodoo game. That's just been there's a reason why Tomlin's
(27:50):
gone five hundred every year with not very good teams.
It's because he wins like some of the games he's
supposed to, and then he voodoos a couple of games
he shouldn't. And I think that's no different with the Colts.
Atlanta's got a talented roster and they've got playmakers. And
even though I don't like them this week, it's because
a lot of the playmakers are out. But it didn't
(28:11):
really surprise me that Atlanta gave him a football game
over there. And yeah, this this Atlanta team we're dissecting
this week is not really the Atlanta team they played
two weeks ago. So I think it's kind of like
revisionist history to just, you know, not give them credit
for winning that game. But the one thing the Colts
are really good at is running the football, and they're
(28:31):
great at play action. The Chiefs are really bad against
play actions. So I definitely think there will be options
opportunities there for Daniel Jones. And again, I just really
don't believe in this Chiefs offense. I don't really think
they're good. They just don't have enough playmakers. Kelsey's old,
he's not as reliable. He's not reliable. And Rashid Rice
(28:52):
is is good, but I don't think he's the one
that everybody wants him to be. Zave You're worthy, I
mean nothing special, Yeah, I mean I don't think he's
had more than eight points all year or definitely not Chins.
Rice has come back, and Hollywood Browns just or whatever,
and Taekwon Thornton's an arm punt guy that you hope
you connect with once. I mean, there's just really not
(29:13):
a lot out there that scares me. The weapons are
are better on the Colts, which is crazy, you know,
So we're getting better weapons, We're getting you know, Warren.
Speaker 2 (29:23):
Yeah, actually you're right head to head to probably straight up.
The Colts are better at running.
Speaker 3 (29:26):
Back sounds and the hammer. Jonathan Taylor best running back
in the league right now, so I mean pretty good.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
All right, Let's go to Eagles Cowboys. This is tough,
so I'm probably gonna avoid this. I haven't seen if
this is three and a half or three in the contest,
but it sounds like the world loves Dallas here. Lane
Johnson's out, gotta go Dallas. I just I remember that
first meeting where Dallas played great, but Jalen Carter had
the spinting incident, didn't play once the entire game, not
one play, and as a result, Javonte Williams was like
(29:55):
running up the middle. Dak was under no pressure, could
deliver the ball, Seede lamb out a couple of And
now you add Jalen Carter in the middle and Jalen Phillips,
who's like a game wrecker all of a sudden coming
from the Dolphins, and it's like, is Dallas. I know,
we saw them drop thirty three on the Raiders and
score will This is the Eagles defense. They're not doing that.
(30:16):
So I mean, if anything, I would like to take
the Eagles at three, but at three and a half,
I don't think so, And I don't I don't. I
just don't trust the Cowboys.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
Well, we seem to be a line today, which is
not always. So Yeah, it's nice to see that we
have a pretty good alignment. Look, I mean we saw
with Dallas what Dallas is versus the elite defenses they
went to they went to Denver and they just they
just got trucked. Yeah, I do I like Dallas. I
like this team I like them when they're playing bad offenses,
(30:48):
not offense, when they're playing bad defenses. Yeah, I mean,
Philly just basically shut out the Detroit Lions and the
Green Bay Packers back to back. You know, those are
two teams that at the time they played them, we're
both power rated in the top six to eight teams
in the NFL. And they basically shut them out. That
(31:12):
is pretty impressive. This defense is doing things that we
haven't seen in a long time. And although I really
like what Dallas has, I think Philly's just too physical
for him. I mean I really do. I think they're
too physical. The corners are good enough to hang with
these receivers, and yeah, I like Dallas. I like Dallas
a lot. I love them on Monday Night, and I'm
(31:34):
going to like Dallas in some other spots. I might
even like them next, you know, on Thanksgiving versus the Chiefs.
But Philly's a different animal, man, they really are. They're
playing a different brand of football and you've got to
be able to match them body for body, blow for blow,
and I don't think Dallas has the dudes for that.
Speaker 2 (31:52):
Yeah, I think Dallas could be like a spoiler in
the Wildcard race. Yeah, that Thanksgiving Day game against the
Chiefs is going to be huge. See if the Chiefs
lose to the Colts. All right, do you want to
pick a final one that you're circling that's moderately interesting.
There's a lot of wacky lines like Lions are big favorites,
Patriots were, Seattle's huge. I don't even know what the
(32:14):
next best game is.
Speaker 3 (32:16):
Yeah, there's not a whole There's not a whole lot
of great games this week. I will say one game
that I really do like this week is I like
the Lions. I think that the Lions just absolutely roll
this Giants team. What we have with the Lions is
a team that loves to come out after they play
(32:36):
bad games, and they really can't. They have the offense
that can really pour it on bad defenses, and the
Giants cannot stop the run. What are the Lions really
good at running the football indoors? And I think the
thing that makes Jackson Dart so tough is just his
(32:57):
willingness to run around. Day Ball was willing to call
run plays for him. Well, now Dave Ball got fired
because they ran the quarterback too much. The OCU who's
now promoted is one of the leading contenders for this job.
Do you think that he wants to call plays to
get his quarterback concussed again? I mean, I think the
one thing that he has to do to get this
(33:18):
job is just be like, put kid gloves on him.
He's got to wrap him in bubble wrap. I mean,
if you go out and you call a play and
Jackson Dart goes out there and he gets hit and
he gets concussed again, You're not getting this job.
Speaker 2 (33:30):
That's a good point.
Speaker 3 (33:32):
I really think that this is a spot that you
just protect Jackson Dart and you just run the football
and you call quick plays and you just try to
protect your guy. And the Lions they're out to prove
they're out to prove that like last week was a fluke,
and we know Dan Campbell doesn't like to take his
foot off the gas, So ten points in a Lions
(33:54):
game just doesn't really scare me too much. So I'm
willing to lay the wood here with the Lions. That'll
probably be one of my favorite games.
Speaker 1 (34:01):
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Speaker 2 (34:13):
Now, that's interesting. The dart angle is a good one.
By the way, update from Thursday's practice, he was limited
as a non contact participant. It does seem like a
stretch that he's going from no contact at all to
playing Aiden Hutchinson and the Lions defense on the road, right, Yeah.
Speaker 3 (34:28):
I mean regardless. I mean, if we get Jamis like
Bowie even more, Oh, that's a lock. Yeah, I mean
we already we already know that the Giants defense isn't
going to stop the Lions, and we know that Jameis
Winston is gonna throw four picks. So yeah, look, load
up the wheelbarrows. If we got if we got Jamis
in there.
Speaker 2 (34:45):
Well, finally, real quick though, Jacksonville Arizona. I feel like
if you go Jacksonville, you're buying it a high off
the Chargers win or the win over the Chargers. And
then if you take Arizona, you're taking a team that
you know. Jacoby Prisett put up monster numbers against the Niners.
Why can't you do it against Jacksonville. I don't know
what to do with this game, but I feel like
(35:08):
Liam Cohen is doing a good job as a first
year head coach, and I feel like Gannon is a
dead man walking now. He looks like he's gonna get
Will Johnson back in the secondary, which is huge because
their defense is terrible and he's a defensive coach. Is
this a savior job kind of game for Gannon or
do you feel like they're just cook gets over? Kyler's done,
The injuries are mounting. Eventually things are going to catch
(35:30):
up with percent.
Speaker 3 (35:32):
Well, I feel like that. I feel like Gannon is
just done. I mean, I don't really think at this
point he's saving his job because it's a different situation,
like if Prissette was this young guy and it's like, Okay,
we've put Murray on the shelf to bring in Persett
because he's a young guy and he's you know, maybe
(35:53):
we can build around him and let's show what we
can do over the last four weeks. I think he's
basically just thrown it in at this point. Looksette is
what he is. We know that he's not really an
NFL starter, and he's fine. He's doing some things. He's
putting up some fantasy numbers if you if you know,
if you're into that kind of stuff. But I don't really,
(36:17):
I don't know. This game is probably the one game,
one game where I'm just like, I have no idea.
You know, five minutes you asked me. Five minutes from now,
I'll like Jacksonville. Five minutes later, I'll like Arizona. I mean,
these two teams, the variance is off the charts. Both
these quarterbacks can throw a lot of interceptions. They both
can throw touchdowns. They both have defenses that sometimes you're like, Wow,
(36:39):
this is a great defense, and other times you're like,
let me start all my fantasy guys against them. You
have two coaches that are somewhat unpredictable. Yeah, I just really,
from a betting standpoint, I don't really want any part
of this game from a guy who has future bets
on Chiefs not making the playoffs and Broncos to win
the division and Ravens to win the AFC. I'm just
(37:00):
rooting for Jacksonville. I need Jacksonville to steal that playoff
spot from the Chiefs. So yeah, I'll just watch this
game and refer roof for Trevor, which is not the
most fun thing to do from time to time. I mean,
there he's running around there and he throws the ball
up and you're like no, no, no, and yeah yeah
sometimes it's sometimes it's picked.
Speaker 2 (37:19):
So oh, I forgot. I am on Seattle going to
Tennessee minus thirteen, fourteen, whatever number is. However, as an
interesting twist, tell me what you think about this, I
actually bet Tennessee first quarter plus three. I don't usually
do this, but I am curious. Seattle off of a
really tough game against the Rams divisional matchup, A lot
(37:40):
of energy was spent. I wonder if it takes him
a little bit of time to refocus and they come
out a little sloppy. You remember the Chargers went there
to Tennessee. Think did they get an easy win? And
they were down after the first quarter, gave up a
punt return touchdown, and had to pick six.
Speaker 1 (37:54):
I just wonder if.
Speaker 2 (37:55):
Tennessee can does something early and then Seattle wakes up.
I know they've bludgeoned like a I think it was
Arizona Saints. They'll take you behind the woodshit. If you're bad.
Tennessee is bad, so that could happen. I just don't
know that. I see them coming out with fire and
vigor for a lowly crappy team and so I bet
Tennessee first quarter, but full game Seattle. Is that process
(38:16):
interest you?
Speaker 3 (38:18):
Yeah, that's not normally a way that I go. I
don't really do many things outside of the actual game itself.
But my kind of thought on this game just in general,
is that Sam Darnold had been having an MVP caliber
year up until the Rams game, and he got a
(38:38):
lot of I guess flak from the national media, and
his players stepped up and then they were like, we
wouldn't be here without Sam. Sam's our guy. And we
saw what when they're willing to throw the football that
against a d line that can't get pressure on him.
What he can do in that Washington game on Sunday
(39:02):
night when he just you know, I think he had
the highest efficiency half of the year of football or whatever,
and they scored thirty five points. We saw them do
the same thing against the Cardinals. I think that this
is a statement game for the Seattle Seahawks to say,
you know what, we could win this game by running,
we could win this game by defense, we could win
(39:23):
this game by throwing. But you know what we're going
to show you, Sam Donald. We're going to get his
numbers back up we're going to build this confidence. We're
going to give him the game ball. We're going to
have some inspirational speech about how he didn't quit and
we always believed in him. And it's beating Tennessee, which
at the end of the day is probably not going
to mean a whole lot. But I think they I
think they're going to want to get Sam back going.
(39:45):
So from a fantasy perspective, if you're like, you know,
if you have quarterbacks that are on by and and
Sam Donald's out there or something, I think he's a
strong option this week. I actually picked him up in
one of my big leagues where I have Dak and
I'm a little concerned about Philly defense, you know, slowing
them down a little bit, and I'm going to start
Sam Darnold this week. I think that he could really
post one of those three hundred and three eight type games.
(40:07):
So wow, yeah, I would. I would possibly, you know.
And I know people don't like to go to the
quarterbacks on these blowout games because they think, well, you know,
it's going to turn into a running game late. But
I think sometimes these coaches just like to prop up
their best players and be like, you know what, let
me staff pad this guy so that we can get
excited about him. And this looks like a really good
(40:29):
spot after, you know, the toughest of weeks that he's
had with those four interceptions against the Rounds.
Speaker 2 (40:34):
Only mild concern. I'm seeing the kids. Zabel on the
interior of the offensive line for Seahawks is not practicing hurt.
He's not great at guard, but their interior Both of
their guards rank really low on Pro Football Focus, and
their center does as well. And what does Tennessee have
Simmons and Sweat in the middle who are pretty good,
So maybe they try to take away the run and
(40:55):
force Donald to throw. I haven't checked the weather yet,
still doing some work on this game, but I I'm kind
of with you Seattle in a low scoring affair. All right,
David Baker, are you play any more poker tournaments the
rest of the year?
Speaker 3 (41:07):
Yeah, this's Uh, December is a big poker time in
the calendar.
Speaker 2 (41:12):
Why is it?
Speaker 3 (41:13):
The World Poker Tour has their championship at the at
the Win, which is right down the street from me
here in Las Vegas, So I'll be at the Win
most of December playing tournaments there, and uh, you know,
they got one where first he'll be five million, so
I'll be trying to take down that price while I'm
still hopefully battling in Survivor and sweating you and Survivor
(41:34):
and all the good stuff. So uh yeah, keep the
text coming. Let's uh, let's let's get to the finish line,
said Survivor and poker.
Speaker 2 (41:41):
So it sounds like you're at the level in the
poker world where you probably have to go around with
like a fai length of bodyguards, right, I mean you
just dominant. Everybody knows who you are. Is that a
thing in Vegas?
Speaker 3 (41:52):
No? Not really, I mean you can no. I'm uh,
you know, thanks. I wish it was as cool as
you made it out to be.
Speaker 2 (42:00):
You know, Steven A. Smith rolls around with bodyguards. I'm
not kidding.
Speaker 3 (42:03):
Yeah, yeah, I mean, well Stephen A. Smith is national media.
I mean you get on a plane and everybody's like, oh,
that's Stephen A. Smith. Get on the plane by me,
and they're like, move your leg I need to get in. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (42:15):
Right, you're not flying with the with the unwashed masses.
We know you're going private anyways. All right, David Baker,
congrats on the podcast. You want to plug it one
more time.
Speaker 3 (42:25):
Yeah, gamble up pod. You can find it on every
podcatcher and YouTube you know. On YouTube there's a video version,
and on Spotify and Apple And if you're into Survivor,
Survivor Sweat is a marketplace where you can buy and
sell pieces of Survivor entries. And on Saturday nights at
six forty five Pacific, we do an hour, hour and
(42:48):
fifteen minutes. We have great poker guests, gambling guests all
the time, and we talk about Circus Survivor, who we
chose this week, why we chose them, why we think
some teams were good picks, and Survivor why we didn't
think so. And it's kind of a roundtable around the
horn type discussion. And it's good. I mean, we've just
been picking up viewers every every week six forty five.
(43:09):
You can find it on x you can find it
on my ex handle au David B and Survivor Sweat.
So yeah, join us on Saturday nights on that and
please listen to the pod.
Speaker 2 (43:22):
How many are left in Circa Survivor, by the.
Speaker 3 (43:24):
Way, I think like nine hundred and forty more my gosh, Yeah,
there's a lot. First is eighteen million though, so the
prize is worth.
Speaker 2 (43:32):
Eighteen million if you you don't think one person's gonna
win it.
Speaker 3 (43:35):
Right, No, Now, really, the only way that he gets
down to I think single digits is if Philly and
or Baltimore lose on Thanksgiving, especially Philly, Philly's going to
have probably half the contest is going to be on
Philly on Thanksgiving against in Chicago. Not because people feel
(43:56):
great about it, but because a lot of people have
already used Baltimore and a lot of people have already
use Detroit. So you know, you're kind of like.
Speaker 2 (44:03):
Detroit's playing Green Bay. That's the we're doing that.
Speaker 3 (44:06):
Yeah, yeah, so you really don't want to play Detroit. Really,
it's Baltimore or Philly are the two spots. You could
take Kansas City against Dallas, But I mean, what that
line's going to be three points maybe? I mean, if
Philly's three and a half at Dallas, what's case they
can't be more than Philly.
Speaker 2 (44:21):
So ideally you have two entries left for Thanksgiving.
Speaker 3 (44:24):
Right currently, I have two entries left. One will yeah,
one would be on Philly, one will be on Baltimore.
So yeah, I'm just hoping that like they both don't
get clipped, but not even that upset if one of
them does, because I kind of wouldn't mind having one
of four hundred opposed to two of nine to fifty,
so you know, it's uh, it wouldn't be the worst
(44:44):
thing in the world to see one of them get
clipped there, and yeah, it's kind of fun.
Speaker 2 (44:49):
So all right, good luck, buddy, I appreciate it, appreciate
your right talk to you soon.
Speaker 3 (44:54):
All right. Thanks.
Speaker 1 (44:57):
The only thing better than sitting on your cow watching
the game, he's making money while you do it. Here's
your best bet.
Speaker 2 (45:07):
All right, great stuff from David Baker. Between that and
talking Bill's Texans. We're running out of time here, so
I'm not gonna spend time going through every single NFL
game in college game, I'll just give you the stuff
I bet in college. I'm on my JMU Duke's minus
thirteen and a half. I am on New Mexico the
(45:27):
Lobos minus three. Oregon, Yes, Oregon minus nine and a
half against USC. I know it's at ten. I just
prefer nine and a half. I know you probably don't
want to play the pay the juice, but I'm I'm
going minus nine and a half minus one twenty. I'm
on Duke minus seven Notre Dame, Yes, Notre Dame length
thirty five, Gotta love lanth thirty five. The quick logic
(45:49):
there is did you see Notre Dame was like a
big part of the college football playoff discussion, like, hey,
Notre Dame hasn't done anything Miami blah blah blah. I
wonder if Mark because Freeman saw that, and it's like,
you know, guys, we're not calling off the dogs early here,
We're putting up. Let's show these mfs what's going on
that we're legit and let's hang eighty on roast beef tech.
(46:11):
So I am laying the thirty five with Notre Dame
LSU minus twenty three. I don't know why I'm doing that.
Missouri getting eight. It's interesting. Bo Prabula, the quarterback who
was injured, looks like he's coming back. Somebody who listens
to this podcast knows him well, thinks he's like a
future NFL quarterback. I don't know. We'll see plus eight
minus one twenty Ohio State minus thirty one minus one twenty. Yeah,
(46:37):
a lot of juice, and then Duke minus sevens for
college football NFL I did go a little crazy. Now
I've had a couple really, really good weeks in a row. Okay,
there's a chance for a pullback this weekend. I'm just
putting you on noticed totals panthersners over forty eight, Giants,
(46:57):
Lions over Fiftyhawks, Titans under forty and a half, and
what other NFL I did take the three and a
half with the Cowboys. I already regret it. After talking
to Baker, I'm like, why would I take the three
and a half? That was so stupid. I bet it
earlier in the week. Just you know, this is why
you don't bet on Tuesday Wednesday. You think you're hot,
(47:18):
You're like, oh, I got this, Cowboys getting three and
a half. I don't like it. I'll probably try to
buy out of it. In game. I'm on the Lions
minus ten minus one twenty New Orleans Saints minus two,
Bears minus three. Bad line early in the week, thought
Rogers was out I'm an idiot. And then Seahawks minus thirteen.
That's all I've got so far. No idea what I'm
(47:40):
doing in the contest, but I am looking Saints and
Lions or two of the top ones. I kind of
like the Rams, but I just saw two of their
tight ends, one on IR and one of their DB's
who's really good Lake. I'm like, damn, and then Joe Burrow.
Stuff's messing me up. So this Saturday morning is going
to be a game time decision for the contest. But
survivor Lamar's back at practice, so we're going Ravens and folks.
(48:04):
It's gonna be a sweat, as it always is. Everybody
who's taken off safe travels. The holiday madness begins. Hopefully
the rain is complete here in Los Angeles. I can't
take any more of this. I don't know. It's been
so long since I've been around bad weather. I just
don't I don't know how you guys operate. My dog
doesn't want to go outside. I don't want to go outside.
I barely want to go to the gym. The rain sucks,
(48:26):
but it's gonna warm up and it should be in
the seventies this week here in southern California. Enjoy the weekend.
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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