August 5, 2025 • 39 mins
On today’s episode, Jason quickly explains how a large green sex toy at a WNBA game got a young man arrested. Later, VSiN host Gill Alexander swings by to discuss why he's betting on the Arizona Cardinals and the Washington Commanders to outperform expectations next season, the biggest difference between teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and the Tennessee Titans, the narrative that the Kansas City Chiefs are poised to take a step back in 2025, which NFL coaches could be on the hot seat this year, how he's planning to approach his Survivor picks this season, his early leans on a several NFL Week 1 lines, and much more!
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Straight Fire fan?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
HiT's me Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Straight boyer for Tuesday, August fifth. I had to had
to check the old calendar there, folks. August just motored around.
I am occasionally and not gonna lie one of those
guys who's like, can you believe it's already August? You
know you do that like maybe three out of the
twelve months of the year for sure.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
That's me.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Anyways, we got a great guest today. He covers the
NFL and gambling. He lives in Vegas. He has a
podcast name is Gil Alexander, and you know we talk
about survivor leagues, NFL gambling Week one Action.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
He's a big survivor player.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
This guy Kill Alexandra, good stuff, sharp individual.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
I like him.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
He's with Vison. Before we get yet to.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Gil, just a couple of quick items, Okay, I found
this interesting. So I saw these float quotes floating around
about Jim Harball visiting one of his players in jail,
you know, and Jim Harball said, obviously, as you know
it's Jim Harball, He's gonna say great things about him.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Love Denzel He's always done right. He's never been in trouble,
got a beautiful family, and we'll let the due process
play out.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
That's Jim Harble. He visited his linebacker, Denzel Pairman and
jail Sunday. Why Saturday afternoon? Oh wait a wait, hold on,
maybe Saturday night. I'm sorry, Friday night. Friday night, he
was pulled over for vehicle code violations, which usually means
like two tint windows were tended too dark. Police discovered
to decide to search his vehicle. They discovered five firearms
(01:48):
in his car, including two assault style rifles. Five weapons.
People coming after Denzel Perrami and I know, listen. Obviously,
as an athlete, you are a target.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
He's wealthy.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
If he wanted to, they could follo him around five weapons.
So he had to spend most of the weekend in jail,
and then he was released. I guess Monday. Yeah, he
was released Monday. So he spent the whole weekend in jail.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
A starting linebacker on the Chargers. That's wild. I don't
the story didn't get much to play.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
I just heard it out here because I saw somebody
I follow on IG posted the quotes about Harball visiting
a guy in jail. I was like, the hell, I'm
not gonna do the NBA stuff. To ear of Fox's macdeal,
Lebron congratulated Luca, I'm not doing that. Before we get
to gel Alec dinner, I've just got to say.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
This is crazy.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
So one of my buddies that I play hoops with
sends me this video from a w NBA game, and
for reasons that I don't understand, someone brought a large
I think it was purple mining green sex toy to
a WNBA game and in.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
The middle of the Gabe threw it on the court.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Okay, it did.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Not make sense.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Now, that's happened when I was on vacation, but I
only heard about it because the guy texted to me. Now,
I thought it was either a fake you know a
lot of this stuff is AI whatever, or be old right,
So I didn't think anything really of it. And then
I see the headlines that they got the guy. He's
twenty three years old. He faces counts of disorderly conduct,
(03:28):
public in decency and decent exposure trespass.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It's just absolutely bizarre. He threw a large dildo on
the quick. What are you doing?
Speaker 3 (03:40):
Bro? Like I don't totally understand it. I mean, this
guy hasn't spoken, so I don't think we have any
idea what's going on now. According to the story, a
second sex toy was thrown on the court Friday during
(04:00):
a Valkyrie game against the Chicago Sky. So one was
thrown Tuesday and then one was thrown Friday, and it's like,
what are you doing? Like, I'm just trying to get
in the mind of the head, which I should stop
right there.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
That's dumb.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Why would you even try of someone who decides, yeah,
I'm gonna I'm gonna bring a dildo to the game
and I'm gonna throw it on the court and see
what happens. Like what I mean, maybe you're you know,
baked completely at two in the morning, hanging out with
your friends and everybody's that would be hysterical, bro, you know,
and people think somehow like in theory, yeah, it sounds
(04:42):
kind of funny, but doing that, that's on your record
now and you go to a job interview, Oh, I
see you you were arrested.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
What was that?
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Oh I jokingly decided to throw a dildo on the court. Really,
do you are you employing that guy at any credible
job anywhere. Like we all do stupid things when we're young.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
That's just I don't. I was stunned when I when
I saw the video. You guys should look up the video.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
I mean, I mean, you had to go out and
buy the thing, and then it's not I'm gonna throw
it on the court at WNBA.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I don't. I just I mean it's August. Maybe the
heat's getting to people. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
All Right, without further ado, let's get to Vson's Gil Alexander.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
I know what sports fans want, but for.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire a new guest.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
I've never spoken to this guy, obviously, I've seen his
gambling content everywhere. He's currently at Vson, the host of
a numbers game, Gil Alexander, straight out of Vegas.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
Gill, how you doing, man, I'm good, Jason. Thanks for
having me. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
Thanks a lot for coming on.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
You've got well researched in the NFL. We'll do a
lot of gambling talk. I do want to start with
you know, it's early August. We've seen one NFL preseason
game to date. Is this once things start getting intense
for you in terms of ramping up or have you
already done your homework back in July grinding away in
the salt mines while everybody's vacationing.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
Yeah, I mean I've done. I think, like most betters,
you have a general idea of what your likes and
your dislikes are. Where you think the bets, the good bets,
are the value bets. But you know, in preseason there
is a cottage industry of people who really enjoy preseason
football in terms of betting it. I am not necessarily
one of those. There was something I do. I don't
(06:42):
know how in the weeds with gambling you get, but
there was. You know, there's a notion that in the
past what we would do is we would do three
team teaser ten point teasers. Oh, because the totals were
so low that if you knocked them down to the
low twenties. But you know what, the bookmakers caught onto that,
and they're not they're no longer widely available.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
It seems a little lot. That's happening a lot now, huh.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Anytime somebody finds an edge, it just evaporates within like
a year.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Well the most stark example of that, and you're right,
I mean, listen, bookmakers are living, breathing folks too, so
they catch on if you find an edge. The biggest
thing where that has sort of changed from last year
to this year is alternate season win totals. So, for
those who don't know, every team obviously has a season
win total, a preflop season win total as I like
(07:28):
to call it. And then some books offer alternate ones,
so like a game and a half higher, a game
and a half or a game lower, and those have
been mispriced for years. In other words, the difference in
just a game they do not price properly. We were
getting more bang for the buck that we deserved. And
if you look at the final NFL standings after every year,
(07:50):
you see how many teams fall outside of one game
of what their preseason brieflop season win total was. So
instead of getting like plus two twenty now on something
that's one game removed, making it that much harder to hit.
In other words, instead of over eight and a half,
you'd have to hit over nine and a half. What
we're getting now is about plus one eighty, So mathematically
(08:12):
not as great.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Not as great of it as Yeah, I'm pretty sure
you had my guy ta on your pot.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
I'm pretty sure you've had him on last season.
Speaker 4 (08:20):
Ryes. That's how I heard that one.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
So I've known that guy for like seven years, and
he started listening to my radio show, was tweeting at me,
and we became friendly. And last year he told me,
he's like, you know, I think the best Super Bowl
matchup is Eagles Chiefs, and I bet it, and I.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Bet Eagles beating them.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
And when I went and signed up for the contest
last August, I had that as a bet.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
It was my best hit of the season. I'm just curious,
do you do.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Any of those long shot you know, say we had
turnoff on Adam turnoff and he had Rams.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Versus Bills in the Super Bowl? Do you do any
of those?
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Hey, I'm not tying up that much money, but it's
a long shot enough that it pays out really good
if I hit it.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
I will usually do a matchup at some point early
in the season, and one that is what I feel like,
maybe there's a team that's under the radar or is
not necessarily one of the usual suspects. Now, it didn't
work out last year, right because in fact, Philadelphia did
beat Kansas City and the Super Bowl. So you know,
sometimes you get a little too cute in terms of
my strategy on that. Cleve Ta, who you're referring to,
(09:20):
is fantastic on the NFL, and he ended up hitting that.
He also did very well on a couple of season
lost one award a one season win as well, so
does a good job with that. But the matchup is
not something necessarily that I gravitate towards before the season.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Yeah, you're a Vegas guy.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
You're looking just simply for the edge and as opposed
to kind of four fund I mean, we've got like
a larger audience in terms of who are doing casual
betting online.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
But are there two teams or three or four teams.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
You've identified right now that obviously like the Bills and
the Ravens, everybody likes them, but the NFC seems a
little more wide open. That's where I don't want to
say you're throwing a dart at like one of six
or seven teams. But anybody stay out so far for
you in the NFC.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Yeah, it's an interesting year in the NFC. Right about that,
I am. You know the Detroit Lions, who obviously lost
in dramatic fashion to the Commanders last year in the
playoffs and sort of flamed out in that game. They're
a very popular pick, but their schedule is super tough.
Some would counter by saying, yeah, but they have a
lot of net rest when it comes to their schedule,
so maybe that counters the schedule being tough from just
(10:24):
an opposing win percentage standpoint. I actually love a division
long shot in the NFC, which is the NFC West.
I think the Arizona Cardinals at north of three dollars
is a pretty interesting choice in the NFC West. Now
that's a different answer from who I think might win
the NFC, because I think the NFC is going to
(10:45):
play out a little like Baseball plays out, which is
to say, you have one hundred and sixty two game
schedule in baseball. So, as Billy Bean famously used to say,
my blank doesn't work in the playoffs, I think a
team that is really really good over seven team games
in the NFC is not necessarily the team that will
win a short one off playoffs. So I think the
(11:07):
Cardinals are really really interesting in the NFC West. Kyler
Murray has said I was hurt last year. He said
I'm gonna run more this year. I think he's connection.
I think his connection with Marvin Harrison is going to
be better. They short up a defense with big free
agent signings, and I think Matthew Stafford's back's an issue.
I think the Niners still have to worry about injuries
as Trent Williams is McAffrey going to get through a season.
(11:28):
And I don't think the Seahawks are as good. But
to answer your question finally, long babbling here, I think
that Washington a team that people think, because they won
so many close games last year, are likely not to
be as good this year, which I agree with. Record wise,
I think they're the sort of baseball team that everybody
talks about where it's like, oh, but you don't want
(11:50):
to face the San Diego Padres if they get in
the playoffs. I think Washington is that team.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Yeah, it's weird Washington.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
They don't have the hype that I thought they would
when you have an offseason adding Deebo Laramie Tunseel, keeping
your coordinators.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
The continuity on that team's ridiculous. I gotta be honest.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
I don't see why they couldn't if they were in
the Super Bowl, I wouldn't surprise me at all.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Would you be surprised?
Speaker 4 (12:14):
No, because I think they're eighteen. I think Jaden Daniels
is that good. I know a lot of people are like, well,
it can't possibly good his sophomore year, if you will,
his second year. I think he is every bit. And
I'm a DC guy. I know you're a DC guy too,
So there's a you know, is can I be accused
of a little homersm here? Maybe full disclosure? But I
think he's pretty special, and I think the league knows
(12:36):
that he's pretty special. This does not seem like a CJ.
Stroud that might fall off year two. Jaden Daniels makes
the right decision every time, and in a one off
playoff system, which is what the NFL is, he is
the guy you do not want to play. I do
think Washington they didn't shore up the defense as much
as they needed to in the off season, but I
(12:59):
think get him into the to the dance that is
the playoffs, and I think they can go very far.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
It's interesting. So you like Washington, obviously everybody likes Philadelphia.
They're not going anywhere, right. You mentioned Arizona.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
The forty nine Ers, I believe have the easiest schedule
in the NFL. Rams are a sexy Super Bowl pick.
We'll see Stafford, you know, I don't know how how
banged up he is. We'll see, or if he's just
old and managing. But so right out of the gate,
that's five teams and we didn't even do the NFC North,
which you know could have three. I mean, you mentioned Lions.
(13:31):
My guy Ta likes the Packers a lot. I'm bullish
on the Vikings, although maybe I'm crazy to like JJ McCarthy.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
I'm betting on the coach. It just almost and we
didn't even get.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
To Tampa and Atlanta. So it feels like the NFC
is kind of wide open, which which makes it. Do
you like it when it's like that or not?
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Yes? I do, I do, Indeed, I love it. I Mean,
we grew up on an NFL years ago that was
very chalky, right, like the best teams always sort of
got there and then they dominated in the play, whether
it was a San Francisco team or a Giants or Cowboys,
and they were sort of beat up on the AFC
team in the eighties and then in the nineties. It's
(14:09):
sort of with with free agency, a little more parody,
said it, and I think this is this year, just
as you were saying about the NFC. This feels like
Pete Roselle's dream of parody. The NFC seems completely wide open.
I agree with you completely on Green Bay. I do
think the JJ McCarthy thing is pretty interesting because I'm
not sure. I'm not sure now. I know, like preseason
(14:31):
interceptions is not a thing. You know, people make it.
Oh look that terrible interception this guy through and they
show up footage he threw five into one day. Jason,
I don't know, but that seems statistically significant to me.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
And Patrick mahomestore like seven in a game at Texas Technomo.
I'm kidding he threw for like seven hundred yards, but
why couldn't And I'm not meaning this in seriousness, but
we saw Patrick Mahomes sit out a full season studying
behind Andy Reid and went in and hit the ground
running McCarthy was injured, and there's a report that he
dropped his weight super low, and he's got some off
(15:02):
field issues that he's got to tighten up. But with
a great coach, are goab be the best receiver in
the league. Isn't there a world where he goes in
for a thirteen win team and is like, oh, there's
not much of a drop off here. I didn't think
Darnold was amazing last year?
Speaker 4 (15:15):
Did you one hundred percent agree with what you sort
of were drifting towards a great point that I make
all the time, which is holding the clipboard as we
used to call it for a year or two back
in the day in the NFL was always a spectacular thing.
Let's just take Washington as an example, and we'll just
go through these a quarterbacks. Mark Rippon was a Super
(15:35):
Bowl quarterback with the Washington Redskins in the early nineties.
After holding the clipboard for three years. Trent Green became
a really good NFL quarterback before he was hurt in
La Stan Humphries got to a Super Bowl with the
San Diego Chargers. Down All these guys had the were
afforded the opportunity to hold the clipboard. This is, you know,
two three decades ago. In the NFL. Now, because of
(15:56):
the way salaries are structured, because of how much you
pay rookies, teams don't have that luxury. But in the
case of JJ McCarthy, he did get to hold the clipboard.
And more recently we saw this with Jordan Love, Right,
Jordan Love ended up with a team that he couldn't
start with right away. Obviously Aaron Rodgers was there, and
so he got to learn. And there is something unquantifiable
(16:19):
about that that I don't think we talk about enough.
Whereas most quarterbacks these days, well Will Levis get in there, buddy,
let's see how it goes, right, There's so much more
of that. So I do think that that's what Minnesota
hangs their hats on, right, They're hanging their hopes on that,
which is all right, JJ, let's hope he falls into
that category. We're sitting a year and learning actually does well.
(16:41):
And keep in mind with Sam Donald, you have to
replace his production and say what we will about Sam Donald.
He was pretty good till the end last year, till
those last two games.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Yeah, yeah, till the last two games.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
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Speaker 2 (17:04):
The other thing, Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
I don't know how you can quantify it, but he's
been amazing as a play caller, as an offensive guru.
And you know, I'm I'm at the herd and Mark
Sanchez always comes in on the show and I'm picking
his brain because I'm a Jets fan. And you know,
Sanchez tells me he was in Kevin O'Connell's wedding and
they're tight. And you know, he seems to have a
good read on the Minnesota Vikings organization. And he's very
(17:30):
bullish on McCarthy. Now, is that him pumping up his friend?
I don't know, but I just like, I'm Kevin O'Connell's
like that guy I don't want to bet against. I
did that like three or four times last year. I
think I was one and four something crazy. But O'Connell's
one of these great coaches that maybe I'm too high
on him because I don't think he has that many
does he have a playoff win yet? O'Connell, Okay, lost
(17:51):
to the Giants, right, well, yeah, and then they lost
last show.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
He doesn't even have a plaoff win, and I'm bullish him.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Are there any coaches that you like, kind of sort
of want to back a little bit just because you
like the cut of their jib?
Speaker 4 (18:02):
Uh? My man in Seattle whose name is now escaping
because there's so many Mike McDaniel McDonalds, Mike McDonald, Thank you,
Mike McDonald. I love is a great defensive mind. By
the way, Minnesota's defensive coordinator right, Brian Flores is a
great coach too. Mike McDonald is a coach that I
really think is smart. I just think he finds himself
(18:22):
in a very tough division this year, so I have
a feeling this year is going to be a struggle.
But thereafter if he's allowed to continue. I think he's
a really sharp NFL mind, and everybody who's worked with
him thinks as such. I think a little name change here.
I think, Mike McDaniels, Do I have that right now?
Speaker 2 (18:40):
In Miami?
Speaker 4 (18:41):
In Miami, Uh, that's always get me. He is one
of these guys that I think has a great mind.
But I wonder if things go a little sideways with
the Dolphins if he might be a casualty this year.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah, that's a spicy take A year's the weird. So
he's only been there three years, he's made the playoffs twice.
That they lost in case when it was like negative
thirty degrees, No harm there, right, you lose to Mahomes
and read at home and the other gamemember Tua was
hurt and they had like I think it was Skyler
Thompson went into Buffalo, Yes, and I think they covered
the spread because I, like an idiot, had the bills
in that one. But I'm like McDaniel's made the playoffs
(19:21):
two years out of three. Tua was mid at best
with Brian Floores, they get in a fight, they hate
each other, Flores gets run out. I don't know why
people are so down on McDaniel. I'll say this as
a Jets fan. We haven't even seen Aaron Glen coach again.
I would take McDaniel and.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
A heart beat over Eric. I just seem like a
great leader of men.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
I agree with you, And I'm gonna say something that's
sort of like in the more unquantifiable category, which is
I think Mike McDaniels suffers from the fact that he
is not your Dan Campbell raw raw guy, and I
think because he's more of a quirky Some might even
say nerdy guy, which I love, By the way, right,
(20:01):
I love If you watch the Dolphins on Hard Knocks,
it was fascinating to watch him. But I have a
feeling that if, like I said, if things go sideways,
not predicting that they will, but if they do, I
just think people turn on a guy like that much
more quickly than they do someone who fits their central
casting image of a quote coach. I could be completely
(20:22):
wrong about that. That's just my feeling.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
By the way, is that a market you been into
at all in August? Like first coach Fire? Do you
do any dabble in any of that?
Speaker 4 (20:30):
Yeah? I do. He would be an interesting choice. I
don't know what his number is, but I would look that.
I bet, I mean everything that to me is a
good bet. I will bet into had Carolina Panthers a
couple of years ago for latest winless team in other words,
the last team to win a game two years ago
at fifteen to one. That hit. I think that. I
(20:52):
think Coach of the Year is an interesting category this
year where I think Jonathan Gannon of the Cardinals is
a great play at twenty to one.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Wow thinks Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Huh yeah, just because I think they're by the way
the cleave our buddy has Jonathan Gannon just of Adam Right,
he's got him too. I think that's if you don't
if you don't buy into the Cardinals as much as
I do, but you kind of understand the point that, oh,
if things go the right way, this could be big.
Maybe that's the way you bet that by proxy is
(21:22):
Gannon at twenty to one, because he's the Cardinals are
right in that win total area where they're not terrible,
they're not great, where like you can't really improve on
a great, you know, season win total that much. In
other words, Sean mcdermot's not winning coach of the Year
no matter how good the Bills do. But the Cardinals
are in that pocket where if they overachieve or overachieve
(21:44):
based on their number, now he will get a big
look for Coach of the Year.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
Let me ask you you're in Vegas, any thoughts on
Ashton gent D.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
I think he's a favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
The Pete Carroll situation, you know, I'm not a Geno
Smith guy, but you know he's the done okay with Seattle.
Where are you on the Raiders because they seem like
I think they won seven games last year with arguably
one of the four worst coaches in the league. And
now you upgrade a quarterback, you upgrade a coach, you
get a great running back. Like it feels like the
Raiders have a lot going on.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
It feels like they have a lot going on. But
their season win total is six and a half. And
the reason for that is because I don't dispute anything
you're saying, but the reason for the six and a
half is because they got two against the Chiefs, they
got two against the Charge, and they got two against
the Broncos. I don't know, are you winning more than
one of those? What?
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Whoa?
Speaker 4 (22:32):
I don't know. I mean, they do play the Chiefs well,
so they give them that. But let's just say they
go two and four there, and if you look at
the rest of your schedule to exceed their season win total,
it's tough to come up with five more. But let's
say you do even that, you're seven and ten at
that point. So I just I do agree with it.
(22:53):
I think Ashton Gentsy is an interesting pick. It is
a high pick for a running back. So we'll see.
I loved Ashton Genty at Boise Status so many people did.
What was there not to love about him? I don't
know that. I necessarily, when watching him at Boise State
against Mountain West's defenses, thought to myself, Man, you gotta
pick this guy in the top six.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Again.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
Yeah, I mean, no knock on him, right, Yeah, I
like him. He's but the thing is, he's a home
run hitter, right, He's not a move the chains guy
and is like a football analytics guy like Aaron Shottz
will tell you it's much more valuable to have a
guy who moves the chains than a home run hitter
in the NFL. So we'll see about that.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Yeah, and Pete Carroll's historically like, hey, we're gonna win
with defense. I run the ball and just not make mistakes.
I don't know if Gino cannot make mistakes, let's stay
in the AFC.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
I've been bullish on cam Ward, you know.
Speaker 3 (23:46):
I feel like he's the least talked about number one
overall picked probably in the last ten years. All I
keep hearing is about Shador Sanders and his beating tickets
and he whatever he's throwing, you know, seven for twelve
while Dylan Gabriel was eight for nine.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
That stuff is relevant to me. Nobody's talking cam Ward.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
I kind of like the Titans the upgrade for will
Levis's massive your thoughts on Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
I think you're on something there. I think, first of all,
unlike right the Raiders question, Tennessee's in a with apologies
to the Texans and the Jaguars, they're in a pretty
and easy ish division, and so there is a there
is a path to greatness there, and a lot of
people are gonna listen to this and be like what
he means. Tennessee, They're terrible, But so much of what
(24:29):
they were terrible about was not on the defensive side
of the ball, was not the nuts and bolts of football,
but was simply quarterback play. And Will Levis was just
terrible in terms of the mistakes he made. You know,
the other guy in the NFC that people don't really
sort of you didn't really register in their brains how
much of a terrible how much his specific terrible play
(24:52):
killed the team last year was Kirk Cousins for all
his great career, almost single handedly torpedo the Atlanta Falcons.
This is the same with Will Levis and the Titans
last year. So cam Ward, who a lot of people
are calling like a Jayden Daniels light if if it
all goes well, let's just put it this way. I
don't know how great he's going to be, but there
(25:12):
is a lot of room for if he is a credible,
competent quarterback. There's a lot of room in those standings
for the Tennessee Titans to get better in and who knows,
right in a very weak division where Houston and Jacksonville
are considered depending on who you asked, and the number
one or two in whichever order, I'm not sure that.
I'm not so sure that the Titans can't pierce that.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Interesting sticking in the AFC. GIL.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Let me ask you, so, I think Kansas City went
eleven or zero one score games last year. You know
we had turnoff on here and he was like, listen,
their wide receiver group was nothing last year. And now
where she Rice is back, would brown and hopefully stay
healthy worthy that showed flashes.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
I'm the opposite man.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
I feel like everybody in that division got better than
the Chiefs. I think the Raiders got better, Chargers improved. Obviously,
Broncos might have the best defense in the league.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
I see the Chiefs coming back.
Speaker 3 (26:04):
Now I'm taking heat because I said they would miss
the playoffs, which is probably a dumb bet. I haven't
actually laid the wager yet, But where are you on.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
Kansas City? Can this mahomes read magic just continue every
freaking year.
Speaker 4 (26:17):
I'm afraid it can't. I think that's the thing. I mean.
I think, by the way, I think if we said,
too right now, if we said, okay, give me one
single bet in the NFL, one single bet that appears
to be the best bet of anything on the board,
or at least the most straightforward, I would say Kansas
City Chiefs AFC West minus one twenty five. That's what
(26:39):
I would say. And the reason I do is because
they've won the division nine years in a row. And
Chernoff is right, right, nine years in a row, Jason,
Let's not even gloss over that. By the way, they've
been to the Super Bowl five out of the last
six years, Like it's insane. You're right about the one
score record, right, I think it was twelve and zero,
including the playoffs of them, if I'm not mistaken, And
(27:01):
then they got crushed in the Super Bowl, and so
because they got crushed, everybody sort of like puts them
in a different category. You're also right about the Broncos
and Chargers and Raiders improving. I think the Broncos are
absolutely a playoff team. I think they got the best defense.
Bo Nicks certainly shocked the heck out of me and
a lot of people last year. I didn't think he
was going to be all that, and he was great.
(27:24):
But the wide receiver thing is a big deal. Where
she Rice is coming back, I think any of us
who just decide either out of being I'm not suggesting
you're being cute with that, but I just think in
order to sort of I think about it on my
show every day. It is like, well, it would be
provocative to say that I don't like the Chiefs here,
(27:46):
but the truth is I can't go up agains. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
I guess two arguments would be, you know, Travis Kelcey
kind of fell off a cliff there. He had his
most season as a pro. In the playoff games, the
final two he was non existent, I mean, like legitimate
non factor in the per Bowl and then their tackle situation.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
I know they drafted the kid.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
From Ohio State and he could be a major steal,
but like their big acquisition was the kid more who
was like a swing tackle on the Niners. And I'm
just like last time I see anytime they're played without tackles,
like Mahomes gets murdered. And I know the interior is great.
I'm picking knits obviously, but.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
You gotta go. You gotta go somewhere on some short ledge.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
And let's say we can all sit here and say,
oh yeah, Chiefs minus three seventy five make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Lock it up, but empty the bank roll. The kid's
four one K.
Speaker 3 (28:33):
But it's just at some point it's gonna they're gonna
pull back, right, you'd have.
Speaker 4 (28:38):
To think that hundred percent. At some point it will.
I just don't think this is quite there. I think
we're one year.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
Ahead of it, and that sounds very Hey, Black are
Red and Roulette. Come on, it can't keep going Red Jay,
it can't.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
You know, you lose your shirt. But all right, like yo,
let's wrap up with week one.
Speaker 3 (28:52):
I know it's early, but a lot of the handicappers
that come on here love to say, hey man, week one,
the first place you look divisional dogs in Week one,
also teams that didn't make the playoff fors teams that
did well. I think Dallas Eagles jumps out as a
big one. Any early thoughts there, I see six and
a half. Choose probably I'll end up to seven.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
Yeah, assuming everything goes well with MICHAELH. Parsons right and
there's no there's no dramatics there. I think you're right.
I think you're right about that. I think the I
think that's a lot of points. I you know, the
Eagles are one of these things. By the way, when
I say Washington is a threat to win the Super Bowl,
I don't think Washington's winning the division. I think Philly
is still but I think but I think Dallas as
(29:35):
Dallas is very stacked. I think the wide receiver edition
is spectacular with George Pickens, and so I do think
that getting all those points week one is absolutely the
play in that game. I also, by the way, same division, Washington,
which is gonna be Washington along with Denver, is gonna
be a very popular Week one survivor pick. But in
(29:55):
terms of the points, listen, I the Giants are interesting
team because on deef I'll say I'm under on the
Giants season win total five and a half. But I
don't think I think it's gonna be one of those
unders where they're still competitive in games, if that makes sense. Yeah,
because the defense still has uh let's just go off
(30:16):
the top of the dome, Thibodeau Lawrence. They added Abdul
Carter and they still have Brian Burns. That is like
a great foundation. Now they have to get the secondary
short up for sure. But I'm I'm a Skins guy,
pardon me, a Commander's guy. I would probably take the
points with the Giants in that one as well.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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Speaker 3 (30:48):
I think the Giants might have covered both games against
them last year. I know they covered one. It was
twenty one to eighteen. But you make a decent point.
I mean, if Russell Wilson can recreate what he had
early with Pickens last year, just lobbing it down the field,
neighbors wins those contested.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Bowls, right, and then win with defense, which is what
Tomlin did. Hey, don't screw it up. Hand the ball off,
you know, let's let our defense right. Maybe they're plucky,
you're right.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
And another non playoff team against a playoff team, and
you know the public loves to hammer those One other
one had jumped out to me. Oh it was Brown's Bengals,
which is always feisty. We know Burrow gets out of
the gate slow. We know that the Browns historically love
to fight tooth and nail against Cincy. The Browns are
five and a half point dogs at home. Now, we
(31:31):
don't know who's starting at quarterback, No, we don't, but
we do know Burrow he's going to play in.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
The preseason, right, he has said I think he's gonna Yes, yeah, okay.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Yeah, that is there. What you just said about them
starting slow. They are survivor contest killers. They were last
year weeks one and three.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Two.
Speaker 4 (31:47):
I believe it was the rate of the Patriots week one,
if I'm not mistaken, and then the Washington Commanders week three,
when people didn't think that Jayden Daniels was a thing yet.
But you're right, that's their counter to them starting slow
is Joe Burrow's I'm playing in the preseason. I'm gonna
make this happen this year, sort of like justin Verlander
and baseball, he starts throwing slow in April, so they're like,
(32:07):
I'll just pitch more in preseason. The Browns, though, you
hit on it, it's Kenny Picket, It's Joe Flacco, and
it's the two kids, Dylan Gabriel and Shdor Sanders. I
think despite his hamstring injury right now, I feel like
it's Kenny Pickett. And I don't know if you know this, Jason,
Kenny Pickett not exactly great at football, so I don't know.
(32:32):
I mean, I think a Bengals team full throttle. That
one scares me a little bit. That one scares me
a little bit because I think the Bengals might do
the opposite of what we're used to.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Week one, you mentioned Survivor.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
I'm sorry, uh, you know, we had David Baker on
who does well in these contests, and he said, there's
there's like a million dollar survivor.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Are you entering that one by a chance?
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Oh, there's more than a million dollar survivor Circus Sports.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
Maybe it's a one hundred thousand dollars buy in some ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Oh yes, what you're referring to is is doing something
they called they have dubbed it the Grandissimo. It's a
one hundred thousand dollars buy in.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
That's it. Yeah, yeah, yes, are you doing that?
Speaker 4 (33:11):
Oh heck no, I don't. I'll do the one thousand.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
Dollars one yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
And I'll do that one multiple times with multiple entries,
but one hundred thousand dollars that we're trying to set
an over under as to how many how many entries
they're actually going to have in this they already think
they already have eight. I set it at thirty and
a half. Oh wow, that's my NUMBI you know. But
you know, here's the thing since legalization, since legalization, which
(33:39):
is twenty eighteen when Passport was ruled unconstitutional, the biggest
thing I've been surprised by, and I think this would
make more sense back in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, twenty
twenty when we first got to see the new Frontier,
is just how many people seem to have endless disposable income.
(33:59):
I can't leave somebody, are sure one hundred thousand dollars
or in this case maybe you have three friends and
you know all four of you go in twenty five thousand.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
So that's a good question.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
Okay, So in the pick them with five teams, were
you're picking five games every week?
Speaker 4 (34:12):
Right?
Speaker 2 (34:12):
I do that one? You can do that with multiple
friends because.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
Everybody, Hey, you get one game, you get a right
right survivor if you do it four friends, twenty five
k pop, like what happens if there's disagreement like who
that's for the issue. So I don't know if you've
talked to Baker lately, but he's going to be selling
shares or like a thousand dollars here, and I think
I'm probably gonna contribute a little bit because I trust
(34:37):
that guy.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
He's super sharp when it comes to these contests.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
But I'm gonna add not that that he would take
my advice if I'm only putting in like two grand.
But I think that Denver Broncos have to be the
week one pick because they're at home against a rookie
quarterback at altitude right, and if you look at their schedule,
I don't like taking road teams like I wouldn't take
them in their next two. Then they host Joe Burrow
not sure I want to do that, and they play
the Jets international game. They do play the Giants in October.
(35:03):
But I mean, you know how these contests work. But
Survivor could be done before Halloween.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
Well, and the reason that they could last year, CIRCA
had their normal Survivor a thousand dollars entry. Three weeks
into it. Three weeks ninety eight plus percent were out.
Not never happened before. I mean, there's been sixty some percent,
there's been seventy some percent, but ninety eight percent, and
then after that it lasted the rest of the year.
(35:29):
So the remaining four hundred plus people, not all of them,
but those four hundred was a trickle down to the
end and there was only like a handful that chopped
at the end. But the Broncos are absolutely going to
be the number one pick. But the reason that ninety
eight percent get knocked out was because everybody was on
the Bengals Week one last year and everybody was on
the Bengals Week three last year. So the Broncos are
(35:50):
absolutely going to be the number one pick. I Bill
Washington will be the number two. So there's a game
theory to it. Yeah, you may want to stay off
the Broncos and then pray that everybody gets crushed.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
By Everybody's correct. That's interesting take.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
So you're right, Eagles are six and a half, Washington
six and a half. Those are divisional matchups. By the way,
does that factor into your survivor? Hey, divisional matchups tread
just a little bit cautiously.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
You know that's a survivor You know that's a survivor
sort of staple that people cite. Oh, I don't want
to do division matchups, but if you actually look into
the numbers on division matchups, it doesn't really hold up.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
There's nothing okay, yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
Doesn't really hold up. Yeah, but that that is a
fear of many though.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Yeah, well look at me. Look at all Square a
week one Denverify.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
Yeah, remember, Jason, the object is not to survive, The
object is to win. The game is misnamed.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Yeah, I play it the wrong way.
Speaker 3 (36:45):
I'm like, listen, I take it one week at a time.
I just want to let me win this week and
worry about next week next week. Yeah, most people that's
a bad strategy though, right.
Speaker 4 (36:54):
You know I would love to sit here and tell
you yes, I mean I have said this for years.
That is a that is a add strategy. But the
truth is fine, is that I got knocked out in
the third week last year, last year, so maybe maybe
I'm not so smart.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
Yeah, I like all these guys who game theory and
are like, oh, no, you gotta save this team for
Detroit week nine.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
That's that's gotta save it. I'm like, bro, week nine,
it's two months away.
Speaker 4 (37:17):
Well, the biggest yeah, and the biggest advice I can
give is because because what you said in there, there's
a there's a kernel, there's a massive kernel of wisdom,
which is weeks one through three. What that really proved
last year is the smart people who you know then strategize.
They might be smart to do that after the first
few weeks, but the first few weeks, none of us
(37:38):
knows a damn thing.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
Right, it's a good point.
Speaker 4 (37:41):
Yeah, that's and that's the thing. And then so point
spreads are preseason prognostications, all that stuff. We're just theorizing.
But until we see these guys on the field playing
the regular season for a few weeks, because remember the
even the preseason is one week shorter now too, Right,
when there were four games, every team used four games
(38:02):
of preseason every team used to follow the same script,
where like they would play their starters in week three
of the preseason, they would have some reps. Now with
three weeks, every team plays it differently. Some teams don't
even play anybody, So it takes a few weeks of
the regular season for us to really get our bearings.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
That's a great point.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
I think I saw stat that five teams that were
favored to miss the playoffs last year.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
Ended up making it, and they were all in the NFC.
Speaker 3 (38:25):
I think, of course by like the Minnesotas of the world,
but it was maybe it was.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
An off year, maybe go back to some normalcy.
Speaker 4 (38:33):
Is it possible, It's possible. I mean, I listen, I
don't predict ninety eight percent of survivors are going to
be out in any year in three weeks. But if
it's seventy percent, that's the norm. That's the norm, because
we don't know. That's the thing, even those of us
who this is our job. I think the humility of
the NFL, you know, the any given Sunday, the humility
(38:54):
of being able to say this is the one league
we're early on. We shouldn't get too as Maria's by
our own thoughts.
Speaker 3 (39:01):
Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. And it's like, hey man,
I'm saving Pat Mahomes for Week eight. Mahomes gets knocked
out in week six.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
He's done for the season.
Speaker 4 (39:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (39:09):
Yeah, it's just it's NFL.
Speaker 3 (39:11):
That's why it's so hard on why we love it, right,
Gil Alexander Viisen the Numbers Game.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
He's great. He knows his stuff. Gil, thanks a lot, man,
thanks for coming on.
Speaker 4 (39:18):
Jason, thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.
This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
What is up?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Straight Fire fan?
Speaker 2 (00:12):
HiT's me Jason McIntyre.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Straight boyer for Tuesday, August fifth. I had to had
to check the old calendar there, folks. August just motored around.
I am occasionally and not gonna lie one of those
guys who's like, can you believe it's already August? You
know you do that like maybe three out of the
twelve months of the year for sure.
Speaker 4 (00:34):
That's me.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Anyways, we got a great guest today. He covers the
NFL and gambling. He lives in Vegas. He has a
podcast name is Gil Alexander, and you know we talk
about survivor leagues, NFL gambling Week one Action.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
He's a big survivor player.
Speaker 3 (00:53):
This guy Kill Alexandra, good stuff, sharp individual.
Speaker 1 (00:56):
I like him.
Speaker 2 (00:56):
He's with Vison. Before we get yet to.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Gil, just a couple of quick items, Okay, I found
this interesting. So I saw these float quotes floating around
about Jim Harball visiting one of his players in jail,
you know, and Jim Harball said, obviously, as you know
it's Jim Harball, He's gonna say great things about him.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
Love Denzel He's always done right. He's never been in trouble,
got a beautiful family, and we'll let the due process
play out.
Speaker 3 (01:24):
That's Jim Harble. He visited his linebacker, Denzel Pairman and
jail Sunday. Why Saturday afternoon? Oh wait a wait, hold on,
maybe Saturday night. I'm sorry, Friday night. Friday night, he
was pulled over for vehicle code violations, which usually means
like two tint windows were tended too dark. Police discovered
to decide to search his vehicle. They discovered five firearms
(01:48):
in his car, including two assault style rifles. Five weapons.
People coming after Denzel Perrami and I know, listen. Obviously,
as an athlete, you are a target.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
He's wealthy.
Speaker 3 (01:58):
If he wanted to, they could follo him around five weapons.
So he had to spend most of the weekend in jail,
and then he was released. I guess Monday. Yeah, he
was released Monday. So he spent the whole weekend in jail.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
A starting linebacker on the Chargers. That's wild. I don't
the story didn't get much to play.
Speaker 3 (02:20):
I just heard it out here because I saw somebody
I follow on IG posted the quotes about Harball visiting
a guy in jail. I was like, the hell, I'm
not gonna do the NBA stuff. To ear of Fox's macdeal,
Lebron congratulated Luca, I'm not doing that. Before we get
to gel Alec dinner, I've just got to say.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
This is crazy.
Speaker 3 (02:37):
So one of my buddies that I play hoops with
sends me this video from a w NBA game, and
for reasons that I don't understand, someone brought a large
I think it was purple mining green sex toy to
a WNBA game and in.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
The middle of the Gabe threw it on the court.
Speaker 3 (03:02):
Okay, it did.
Speaker 2 (03:04):
Not make sense.
Speaker 3 (03:05):
Now, that's happened when I was on vacation, but I
only heard about it because the guy texted to me. Now,
I thought it was either a fake you know a
lot of this stuff is AI whatever, or be old right,
So I didn't think anything really of it. And then
I see the headlines that they got the guy. He's
twenty three years old. He faces counts of disorderly conduct,
(03:28):
public in decency and decent exposure trespass.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
It's just absolutely bizarre. He threw a large dildo on
the quick. What are you doing?
Speaker 3 (03:40):
Bro? Like I don't totally understand it. I mean, this
guy hasn't spoken, so I don't think we have any
idea what's going on now. According to the story, a
second sex toy was thrown on the court Friday during
(04:00):
a Valkyrie game against the Chicago Sky. So one was
thrown Tuesday and then one was thrown Friday, and it's like,
what are you doing? Like, I'm just trying to get
in the mind of the head, which I should stop
right there.
Speaker 1 (04:17):
That's dumb.
Speaker 3 (04:17):
Why would you even try of someone who decides, yeah,
I'm gonna I'm gonna bring a dildo to the game
and I'm gonna throw it on the court and see
what happens. Like what I mean, maybe you're you know,
baked completely at two in the morning, hanging out with
your friends and everybody's that would be hysterical, bro, you know,
and people think somehow like in theory, yeah, it sounds
(04:42):
kind of funny, but doing that, that's on your record
now and you go to a job interview, Oh, I
see you you were arrested.
Speaker 2 (04:50):
What was that?
Speaker 3 (04:51):
Oh I jokingly decided to throw a dildo on the court. Really,
do you are you employing that guy at any credible
job anywhere. Like we all do stupid things when we're young.
Speaker 2 (05:05):
That's just I don't. I was stunned when I when
I saw the video. You guys should look up the video.
Speaker 3 (05:10):
I mean, I mean, you had to go out and
buy the thing, and then it's not I'm gonna throw
it on the court at WNBA.
Speaker 2 (05:16):
I don't. I just I mean it's August. Maybe the
heat's getting to people. I don't know.
Speaker 3 (05:20):
All Right, without further ado, let's get to Vson's Gil Alexander.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
You know a guy, Jason likes to think he knows
everything when it comes to sports.
Speaker 4 (05:31):
I know what sports fans want, but for.
Speaker 1 (05:34):
Everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
Let's just say I know a guy who knows a
guy who knows another guy.
Speaker 2 (05:42):
All right, let's welcome into straight fire a new guest.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
I've never spoken to this guy, obviously, I've seen his
gambling content everywhere. He's currently at Vson, the host of
a numbers game, Gil Alexander, straight out of Vegas.
Speaker 4 (05:55):
Gill, how you doing, man, I'm good, Jason. Thanks for
having me. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
Thanks a lot for coming on.
Speaker 3 (06:00):
You've got well researched in the NFL. We'll do a
lot of gambling talk. I do want to start with
you know, it's early August. We've seen one NFL preseason
game to date. Is this once things start getting intense
for you in terms of ramping up or have you
already done your homework back in July grinding away in
the salt mines while everybody's vacationing.
Speaker 4 (06:20):
Yeah, I mean I've done. I think, like most betters,
you have a general idea of what your likes and
your dislikes are. Where you think the bets, the good bets,
are the value bets. But you know, in preseason there
is a cottage industry of people who really enjoy preseason
football in terms of betting it. I am not necessarily
one of those. There was something I do. I don't
(06:42):
know how in the weeds with gambling you get, but
there was. You know, there's a notion that in the
past what we would do is we would do three
team teaser ten point teasers. Oh, because the totals were
so low that if you knocked them down to the
low twenties. But you know what, the bookmakers caught onto that,
and they're not they're no longer widely available.
Speaker 2 (07:01):
It seems a little lot. That's happening a lot now, huh.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Anytime somebody finds an edge, it just evaporates within like
a year.
Speaker 4 (07:08):
Well the most stark example of that, and you're right,
I mean, listen, bookmakers are living, breathing folks too, so
they catch on if you find an edge. The biggest
thing where that has sort of changed from last year
to this year is alternate season win totals. So, for
those who don't know, every team obviously has a season
win total, a preflop season win total as I like
(07:28):
to call it. And then some books offer alternate ones,
so like a game and a half higher, a game
and a half or a game lower, and those have
been mispriced for years. In other words, the difference in
just a game they do not price properly. We were
getting more bang for the buck that we deserved. And
if you look at the final NFL standings after every year,
(07:50):
you see how many teams fall outside of one game
of what their preseason brieflop season win total was. So
instead of getting like plus two twenty now on something
that's one game removed, making it that much harder to hit.
In other words, instead of over eight and a half,
you'd have to hit over nine and a half. What
we're getting now is about plus one eighty, So mathematically
(08:12):
not as great.
Speaker 3 (08:13):
Not as great of it as Yeah, I'm pretty sure
you had my guy ta on your pot.
Speaker 2 (08:19):
I'm pretty sure you've had him on last season.
Speaker 4 (08:20):
Ryes. That's how I heard that one.
Speaker 3 (08:22):
So I've known that guy for like seven years, and
he started listening to my radio show, was tweeting at me,
and we became friendly. And last year he told me,
he's like, you know, I think the best Super Bowl
matchup is Eagles Chiefs, and I bet it, and I.
Speaker 2 (08:36):
Bet Eagles beating them.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
And when I went and signed up for the contest
last August, I had that as a bet.
Speaker 2 (08:41):
It was my best hit of the season. I'm just curious,
do you do.
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Any of those long shot you know, say we had
turnoff on Adam turnoff and he had Rams.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Versus Bills in the Super Bowl? Do you do any
of those?
Speaker 3 (08:52):
Hey, I'm not tying up that much money, but it's
a long shot enough that it pays out really good
if I hit it.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
I will usually do a matchup at some point early
in the season, and one that is what I feel like,
maybe there's a team that's under the radar or is
not necessarily one of the usual suspects. Now, it didn't
work out last year, right because in fact, Philadelphia did
beat Kansas City and the Super Bowl. So you know,
sometimes you get a little too cute in terms of
my strategy on that. Cleve Ta, who you're referring to,
(09:20):
is fantastic on the NFL, and he ended up hitting that.
He also did very well on a couple of season
lost one award a one season win as well, so
does a good job with that. But the matchup is
not something necessarily that I gravitate towards before the season.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Yeah, you're a Vegas guy.
Speaker 3 (09:37):
You're looking just simply for the edge and as opposed
to kind of four fund I mean, we've got like
a larger audience in terms of who are doing casual
betting online.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
But are there two teams or three or four teams.
Speaker 3 (09:49):
You've identified right now that obviously like the Bills and
the Ravens, everybody likes them, but the NFC seems a
little more wide open. That's where I don't want to
say you're throwing a dart at like one of six
or seven teams. But anybody stay out so far for
you in the NFC.
Speaker 4 (10:02):
Yeah, it's an interesting year in the NFC. Right about that,
I am. You know the Detroit Lions, who obviously lost
in dramatic fashion to the Commanders last year in the
playoffs and sort of flamed out in that game. They're
a very popular pick, but their schedule is super tough.
Some would counter by saying, yeah, but they have a
lot of net rest when it comes to their schedule,
so maybe that counters the schedule being tough from just
(10:24):
an opposing win percentage standpoint. I actually love a division
long shot in the NFC, which is the NFC West.
I think the Arizona Cardinals at north of three dollars
is a pretty interesting choice in the NFC West. Now
that's a different answer from who I think might win
the NFC, because I think the NFC is going to
(10:45):
play out a little like Baseball plays out, which is
to say, you have one hundred and sixty two game
schedule in baseball. So, as Billy Bean famously used to say,
my blank doesn't work in the playoffs, I think a
team that is really really good over seven team games
in the NFC is not necessarily the team that will
win a short one off playoffs. So I think the
(11:07):
Cardinals are really really interesting in the NFC West. Kyler
Murray has said I was hurt last year. He said
I'm gonna run more this year. I think he's connection.
I think his connection with Marvin Harrison is going to
be better. They short up a defense with big free
agent signings, and I think Matthew Stafford's back's an issue.
I think the Niners still have to worry about injuries
as Trent Williams is McAffrey going to get through a season.
(11:28):
And I don't think the Seahawks are as good. But
to answer your question finally, long babbling here, I think
that Washington a team that people think, because they won
so many close games last year, are likely not to
be as good this year, which I agree with. Record wise,
I think they're the sort of baseball team that everybody
talks about where it's like, oh, but you don't want
(11:50):
to face the San Diego Padres if they get in
the playoffs. I think Washington is that team.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
Yeah, it's weird Washington.
Speaker 3 (11:59):
They don't have the hype that I thought they would
when you have an offseason adding Deebo Laramie Tunseel, keeping
your coordinators.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
The continuity on that team's ridiculous. I gotta be honest.
Speaker 3 (12:09):
I don't see why they couldn't if they were in
the Super Bowl, I wouldn't surprise me at all.
Speaker 2 (12:12):
Would you be surprised?
Speaker 4 (12:14):
No, because I think they're eighteen. I think Jaden Daniels
is that good. I know a lot of people are like, well,
it can't possibly good his sophomore year, if you will,
his second year. I think he is every bit. And
I'm a DC guy. I know you're a DC guy too,
So there's a you know, is can I be accused
of a little homersm here? Maybe full disclosure? But I
think he's pretty special, and I think the league knows
(12:36):
that he's pretty special. This does not seem like a CJ.
Stroud that might fall off year two. Jaden Daniels makes
the right decision every time, and in a one off
playoff system, which is what the NFL is, he is
the guy you do not want to play. I do
think Washington they didn't shore up the defense as much
as they needed to in the off season, but I
(12:59):
think get him into the to the dance that is
the playoffs, and I think they can go very far.
Speaker 2 (13:04):
It's interesting. So you like Washington, obviously everybody likes Philadelphia.
They're not going anywhere, right. You mentioned Arizona.
Speaker 3 (13:11):
The forty nine Ers, I believe have the easiest schedule
in the NFL. Rams are a sexy Super Bowl pick.
We'll see Stafford, you know, I don't know how how
banged up he is. We'll see, or if he's just
old and managing. But so right out of the gate,
that's five teams and we didn't even do the NFC North,
which you know could have three. I mean, you mentioned Lions.
(13:31):
My guy Ta likes the Packers a lot. I'm bullish
on the Vikings, although maybe I'm crazy to like JJ McCarthy.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
I'm betting on the coach. It just almost and we
didn't even get.
Speaker 3 (13:41):
To Tampa and Atlanta. So it feels like the NFC
is kind of wide open, which which makes it. Do
you like it when it's like that or not?
Speaker 4 (13:49):
Yes? I do, I do, Indeed, I love it. I Mean,
we grew up on an NFL years ago that was
very chalky, right, like the best teams always sort of
got there and then they dominated in the play, whether
it was a San Francisco team or a Giants or Cowboys,
and they were sort of beat up on the AFC
team in the eighties and then in the nineties. It's
(14:09):
sort of with with free agency, a little more parody,
said it, and I think this is this year, just
as you were saying about the NFC. This feels like
Pete Roselle's dream of parody. The NFC seems completely wide open.
I agree with you completely on Green Bay. I do
think the JJ McCarthy thing is pretty interesting because I'm
not sure. I'm not sure now. I know, like preseason
(14:31):
interceptions is not a thing. You know, people make it.
Oh look that terrible interception this guy through and they
show up footage he threw five into one day. Jason,
I don't know, but that seems statistically significant to me.
Speaker 3 (14:42):
And Patrick mahomestore like seven in a game at Texas Technomo.
I'm kidding he threw for like seven hundred yards, but
why couldn't And I'm not meaning this in seriousness, but
we saw Patrick Mahomes sit out a full season studying
behind Andy Reid and went in and hit the ground
running McCarthy was injured, and there's a report that he
dropped his weight super low, and he's got some off
(15:02):
field issues that he's got to tighten up. But with
a great coach, are goab be the best receiver in
the league. Isn't there a world where he goes in
for a thirteen win team and is like, oh, there's
not much of a drop off here. I didn't think
Darnold was amazing last year?
Speaker 4 (15:15):
Did you one hundred percent agree with what you sort
of were drifting towards a great point that I make
all the time, which is holding the clipboard as we
used to call it for a year or two back
in the day in the NFL was always a spectacular thing.
Let's just take Washington as an example, and we'll just
go through these a quarterbacks. Mark Rippon was a Super
(15:35):
Bowl quarterback with the Washington Redskins in the early nineties.
After holding the clipboard for three years. Trent Green became
a really good NFL quarterback before he was hurt in
La Stan Humphries got to a Super Bowl with the
San Diego Chargers. Down All these guys had the were
afforded the opportunity to hold the clipboard. This is, you know,
two three decades ago. In the NFL. Now, because of
(15:56):
the way salaries are structured, because of how much you
pay rookies, teams don't have that luxury. But in the
case of JJ McCarthy, he did get to hold the clipboard.
And more recently we saw this with Jordan Love, Right,
Jordan Love ended up with a team that he couldn't
start with right away. Obviously Aaron Rodgers was there, and
so he got to learn. And there is something unquantifiable
(16:19):
about that that I don't think we talk about enough.
Whereas most quarterbacks these days, well Will Levis get in there, buddy,
let's see how it goes, right, There's so much more
of that. So I do think that that's what Minnesota
hangs their hats on, right, They're hanging their hopes on that,
which is all right, JJ, let's hope he falls into
that category. We're sitting a year and learning actually does well.
(16:41):
And keep in mind with Sam Donald, you have to
replace his production and say what we will about Sam Donald.
He was pretty good till the end last year, till
those last two games.
Speaker 2 (16:50):
Yeah, yeah, till the last two games.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Foxsports Radio
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to listen live.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
The other thing, Kevin O'Connell.
Speaker 3 (17:06):
I don't know how you can quantify it, but he's
been amazing as a play caller, as an offensive guru.
And you know, I'm I'm at the herd and Mark
Sanchez always comes in on the show and I'm picking
his brain because I'm a Jets fan. And you know,
Sanchez tells me he was in Kevin O'Connell's wedding and
they're tight. And you know, he seems to have a
good read on the Minnesota Vikings organization. And he's very
(17:30):
bullish on McCarthy. Now, is that him pumping up his friend?
I don't know, but I just like, I'm Kevin O'Connell's
like that guy I don't want to bet against. I
did that like three or four times last year. I
think I was one and four something crazy. But O'Connell's
one of these great coaches that maybe I'm too high
on him because I don't think he has that many
does he have a playoff win yet? O'Connell, Okay, lost
(17:51):
to the Giants, right, well, yeah, and then they lost
last show.
Speaker 2 (17:54):
He doesn't even have a plaoff win, and I'm bullish him.
Speaker 3 (17:56):
Are there any coaches that you like, kind of sort
of want to back a little bit just because you
like the cut of their jib?
Speaker 4 (18:02):
Uh? My man in Seattle whose name is now escaping
because there's so many Mike McDaniel McDonalds, Mike McDonald, Thank you,
Mike McDonald. I love is a great defensive mind. By
the way, Minnesota's defensive coordinator right, Brian Flores is a
great coach too. Mike McDonald is a coach that I
really think is smart. I just think he finds himself
(18:22):
in a very tough division this year, so I have
a feeling this year is going to be a struggle.
But thereafter if he's allowed to continue. I think he's
a really sharp NFL mind, and everybody who's worked with
him thinks as such. I think a little name change here.
I think, Mike McDaniels, Do I have that right now?
Speaker 2 (18:40):
In Miami?
Speaker 4 (18:41):
In Miami, Uh, that's always get me. He is one
of these guys that I think has a great mind.
But I wonder if things go a little sideways with
the Dolphins if he might be a casualty this year.
Speaker 3 (18:58):
Yeah, that's a spicy take A year's the weird. So
he's only been there three years, he's made the playoffs twice.
That they lost in case when it was like negative
thirty degrees, No harm there, right, you lose to Mahomes
and read at home and the other gamemember Tua was
hurt and they had like I think it was Skyler
Thompson went into Buffalo, Yes, and I think they covered
the spread because I, like an idiot, had the bills
in that one. But I'm like McDaniel's made the playoffs
(19:21):
two years out of three. Tua was mid at best
with Brian Floores, they get in a fight, they hate
each other, Flores gets run out. I don't know why
people are so down on McDaniel. I'll say this as
a Jets fan. We haven't even seen Aaron Glen coach again.
I would take McDaniel and.
Speaker 2 (19:35):
A heart beat over Eric. I just seem like a
great leader of men.
Speaker 4 (19:38):
I agree with you, And I'm gonna say something that's
sort of like in the more unquantifiable category, which is
I think Mike McDaniels suffers from the fact that he
is not your Dan Campbell raw raw guy, and I
think because he's more of a quirky Some might even
say nerdy guy, which I love, By the way, right,
(20:01):
I love If you watch the Dolphins on Hard Knocks,
it was fascinating to watch him. But I have a
feeling that if, like I said, if things go sideways,
not predicting that they will, but if they do, I
just think people turn on a guy like that much
more quickly than they do someone who fits their central
casting image of a quote coach. I could be completely
(20:22):
wrong about that. That's just my feeling.
Speaker 3 (20:24):
By the way, is that a market you been into
at all in August? Like first coach Fire? Do you
do any dabble in any of that?
Speaker 4 (20:30):
Yeah? I do. He would be an interesting choice. I
don't know what his number is, but I would look that.
I bet, I mean everything that to me is a
good bet. I will bet into had Carolina Panthers a
couple of years ago for latest winless team in other words,
the last team to win a game two years ago
at fifteen to one. That hit. I think that. I
(20:52):
think Coach of the Year is an interesting category this
year where I think Jonathan Gannon of the Cardinals is
a great play at twenty to one.
Speaker 2 (20:59):
Wow thinks Cardinals.
Speaker 4 (21:00):
Huh yeah, just because I think they're by the way
the cleave our buddy has Jonathan Gannon just of Adam Right,
he's got him too. I think that's if you don't
if you don't buy into the Cardinals as much as
I do, but you kind of understand the point that, oh,
if things go the right way, this could be big.
Maybe that's the way you bet that by proxy is
(21:22):
Gannon at twenty to one, because he's the Cardinals are
right in that win total area where they're not terrible,
they're not great, where like you can't really improve on
a great, you know, season win total that much. In
other words, Sean mcdermot's not winning coach of the Year
no matter how good the Bills do. But the Cardinals
are in that pocket where if they overachieve or overachieve
(21:44):
based on their number, now he will get a big
look for Coach of the Year.
Speaker 3 (21:48):
Let me ask you you're in Vegas, any thoughts on
Ashton gent D.
Speaker 2 (21:53):
I think he's a favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
The Pete Carroll situation, you know, I'm not a Geno
Smith guy, but you know he's the done okay with Seattle.
Where are you on the Raiders because they seem like
I think they won seven games last year with arguably
one of the four worst coaches in the league. And
now you upgrade a quarterback, you upgrade a coach, you
get a great running back. Like it feels like the
Raiders have a lot going on.
Speaker 4 (22:16):
It feels like they have a lot going on. But
their season win total is six and a half. And
the reason for that is because I don't dispute anything
you're saying, but the reason for the six and a
half is because they got two against the Chiefs, they
got two against the Charge, and they got two against
the Broncos. I don't know, are you winning more than
one of those? What?
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Whoa?
Speaker 4 (22:32):
I don't know. I mean, they do play the Chiefs well,
so they give them that. But let's just say they
go two and four there, and if you look at
the rest of your schedule to exceed their season win total,
it's tough to come up with five more. But let's
say you do even that, you're seven and ten at
that point. So I just I do agree with it.
(22:53):
I think Ashton Gentsy is an interesting pick. It is
a high pick for a running back. So we'll see.
I loved Ashton Genty at Boise Status so many people did.
What was there not to love about him? I don't
know that. I necessarily, when watching him at Boise State
against Mountain West's defenses, thought to myself, Man, you gotta
pick this guy in the top six.
Speaker 2 (23:15):
Again.
Speaker 4 (23:15):
Yeah, I mean, no knock on him, right, Yeah, I
like him. He's but the thing is, he's a home
run hitter, right, He's not a move the chains guy
and is like a football analytics guy like Aaron Shottz
will tell you it's much more valuable to have a
guy who moves the chains than a home run hitter
in the NFL. So we'll see about that.
Speaker 3 (23:34):
Yeah, and Pete Carroll's historically like, hey, we're gonna win
with defense. I run the ball and just not make mistakes.
I don't know if Gino cannot make mistakes, let's stay
in the AFC.
Speaker 2 (23:43):
I've been bullish on cam Ward, you know.
Speaker 3 (23:46):
I feel like he's the least talked about number one
overall picked probably in the last ten years. All I
keep hearing is about Shador Sanders and his beating tickets
and he whatever he's throwing, you know, seven for twelve
while Dylan Gabriel was eight for nine.
Speaker 2 (24:00):
That stuff is relevant to me. Nobody's talking cam Ward.
Speaker 3 (24:03):
I kind of like the Titans the upgrade for will
Levis's massive your thoughts on Tennessee.
Speaker 4 (24:08):
I think you're on something there. I think, first of all,
unlike right the Raiders question, Tennessee's in a with apologies
to the Texans and the Jaguars, they're in a pretty
and easy ish division, and so there is a there
is a path to greatness there, and a lot of
people are gonna listen to this and be like what
he means. Tennessee, They're terrible, But so much of what
(24:29):
they were terrible about was not on the defensive side
of the ball, was not the nuts and bolts of football,
but was simply quarterback play. And Will Levis was just
terrible in terms of the mistakes he made. You know,
the other guy in the NFC that people don't really
sort of you didn't really register in their brains how
much of a terrible how much his specific terrible play
(24:52):
killed the team last year was Kirk Cousins for all
his great career, almost single handedly torpedo the Atlanta Falcons.
This is the same with Will Levis and the Titans
last year. So cam Ward, who a lot of people
are calling like a Jayden Daniels light if if it
all goes well, let's just put it this way. I
don't know how great he's going to be, but there
(25:12):
is a lot of room for if he is a credible,
competent quarterback. There's a lot of room in those standings
for the Tennessee Titans to get better in and who knows,
right in a very weak division where Houston and Jacksonville
are considered depending on who you asked, and the number
one or two in whichever order, I'm not sure that.
I'm not so sure that the Titans can't pierce that.
Speaker 2 (25:34):
Interesting sticking in the AFC. GIL.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Let me ask you, so, I think Kansas City went
eleven or zero one score games last year. You know
we had turnoff on here and he was like, listen,
their wide receiver group was nothing last year. And now
where she Rice is back, would brown and hopefully stay
healthy worthy that showed flashes.
Speaker 2 (25:52):
I'm the opposite man.
Speaker 3 (25:53):
I feel like everybody in that division got better than
the Chiefs. I think the Raiders got better, Chargers improved. Obviously,
Broncos might have the best defense in the league.
Speaker 2 (26:03):
I see the Chiefs coming back.
Speaker 3 (26:04):
Now I'm taking heat because I said they would miss
the playoffs, which is probably a dumb bet. I haven't
actually laid the wager yet, But where are you on.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
Kansas City? Can this mahomes read magic just continue every
freaking year.
Speaker 4 (26:17):
I'm afraid it can't. I think that's the thing. I mean.
I think, by the way, I think if we said,
too right now, if we said, okay, give me one
single bet in the NFL, one single bet that appears
to be the best bet of anything on the board,
or at least the most straightforward, I would say Kansas
City Chiefs AFC West minus one twenty five. That's what
(26:39):
I would say. And the reason I do is because
they've won the division nine years in a row. And
Chernoff is right, right, nine years in a row, Jason,
Let's not even gloss over that. By the way, they've
been to the Super Bowl five out of the last
six years, Like it's insane. You're right about the one
score record, right, I think it was twelve and zero,
including the playoffs of them, if I'm not mistaken, And
(27:01):
then they got crushed in the Super Bowl, and so
because they got crushed, everybody sort of like puts them
in a different category. You're also right about the Broncos
and Chargers and Raiders improving. I think the Broncos are
absolutely a playoff team. I think they got the best defense.
Bo Nicks certainly shocked the heck out of me and
a lot of people last year. I didn't think he
was going to be all that, and he was great.
(27:24):
But the wide receiver thing is a big deal. Where
she Rice is coming back, I think any of us
who just decide either out of being I'm not suggesting
you're being cute with that, but I just think in
order to sort of I think about it on my
show every day. It is like, well, it would be
provocative to say that I don't like the Chiefs here,
(27:46):
but the truth is I can't go up agains. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (27:49):
I guess two arguments would be, you know, Travis Kelcey
kind of fell off a cliff there. He had his
most season as a pro. In the playoff games, the
final two he was non existent, I mean, like legitimate
non factor in the per Bowl and then their tackle situation.
Speaker 2 (28:03):
I know they drafted the kid.
Speaker 3 (28:04):
From Ohio State and he could be a major steal,
but like their big acquisition was the kid more who
was like a swing tackle on the Niners. And I'm
just like last time I see anytime they're played without tackles,
like Mahomes gets murdered. And I know the interior is great.
I'm picking knits obviously, but.
Speaker 2 (28:23):
You gotta go. You gotta go somewhere on some short ledge.
Speaker 3 (28:26):
And let's say we can all sit here and say,
oh yeah, Chiefs minus three seventy five make the playoffs.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Lock it up, but empty the bank roll. The kid's
four one K.
Speaker 3 (28:33):
But it's just at some point it's gonna they're gonna
pull back, right, you'd have.
Speaker 4 (28:38):
To think that hundred percent. At some point it will.
I just don't think this is quite there. I think
we're one year.
Speaker 3 (28:42):
Ahead of it, and that sounds very Hey, Black are
Red and Roulette. Come on, it can't keep going Red Jay,
it can't.
Speaker 2 (28:48):
You know, you lose your shirt. But all right, like yo,
let's wrap up with week one.
Speaker 3 (28:52):
I know it's early, but a lot of the handicappers
that come on here love to say, hey man, week one,
the first place you look divisional dogs in Week one,
also teams that didn't make the playoff fors teams that
did well. I think Dallas Eagles jumps out as a
big one. Any early thoughts there, I see six and
a half. Choose probably I'll end up to seven.
Speaker 4 (29:14):
Yeah, assuming everything goes well with MICHAELH. Parsons right and
there's no there's no dramatics there. I think you're right.
I think you're right about that. I think the I
think that's a lot of points. I you know, the
Eagles are one of these things. By the way, when
I say Washington is a threat to win the Super Bowl,
I don't think Washington's winning the division. I think Philly
is still but I think but I think Dallas as
(29:35):
Dallas is very stacked. I think the wide receiver edition
is spectacular with George Pickens, and so I do think
that getting all those points week one is absolutely the
play in that game. I also, by the way, same division, Washington,
which is gonna be Washington along with Denver, is gonna
be a very popular Week one survivor pick. But in
(29:55):
terms of the points, listen, I the Giants are interesting
team because on deef I'll say I'm under on the
Giants season win total five and a half. But I
don't think I think it's gonna be one of those
unders where they're still competitive in games, if that makes sense. Yeah,
because the defense still has uh let's just go off
(30:16):
the top of the dome, Thibodeau Lawrence. They added Abdul
Carter and they still have Brian Burns. That is like
a great foundation. Now they have to get the secondary
short up for sure. But I'm I'm a Skins guy,
pardon me, a Commander's guy. I would probably take the
points with the Giants in that one as well.
Speaker 1 (30:36):
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the nation. Catch all of our shows at foxsports Radio
dot com and within the iHeartRadio app search FSR to
listen live.
Speaker 3 (30:48):
I think the Giants might have covered both games against
them last year. I know they covered one. It was
twenty one to eighteen. But you make a decent point.
I mean, if Russell Wilson can recreate what he had
early with Pickens last year, just lobbing it down the field,
neighbors wins those contested.
Speaker 2 (31:01):
Bowls, right, and then win with defense, which is what
Tomlin did. Hey, don't screw it up. Hand the ball off,
you know, let's let our defense right. Maybe they're plucky,
you're right.
Speaker 3 (31:10):
And another non playoff team against a playoff team, and
you know the public loves to hammer those One other
one had jumped out to me. Oh it was Brown's Bengals,
which is always feisty. We know Burrow gets out of
the gate slow. We know that the Browns historically love
to fight tooth and nail against Cincy. The Browns are
five and a half point dogs at home. Now, we
(31:31):
don't know who's starting at quarterback, No, we don't, but
we do know Burrow he's going to play in.
Speaker 2 (31:34):
The preseason, right, he has said I think he's gonna Yes, yeah, okay.
Speaker 4 (31:37):
Yeah, that is there. What you just said about them
starting slow. They are survivor contest killers. They were last
year weeks one and three.
Speaker 2 (31:46):
Two.
Speaker 4 (31:47):
I believe it was the rate of the Patriots week one,
if I'm not mistaken, and then the Washington Commanders week three,
when people didn't think that Jayden Daniels was a thing yet.
But you're right, that's their counter to them starting slow
is Joe Burrow's I'm playing in the preseason. I'm gonna
make this happen this year, sort of like justin Verlander
and baseball, he starts throwing slow in April, so they're like,
(32:07):
I'll just pitch more in preseason. The Browns, though, you
hit on it, it's Kenny Picket, It's Joe Flacco, and
it's the two kids, Dylan Gabriel and Shdor Sanders. I
think despite his hamstring injury right now, I feel like
it's Kenny Pickett. And I don't know if you know this, Jason,
Kenny Pickett not exactly great at football, so I don't know.
(32:32):
I mean, I think a Bengals team full throttle. That
one scares me a little bit. That one scares me
a little bit because I think the Bengals might do
the opposite of what we're used to.
Speaker 2 (32:40):
Week one, you mentioned Survivor.
Speaker 3 (32:41):
I'm sorry, uh, you know, we had David Baker on
who does well in these contests, and he said, there's
there's like a million dollar survivor.
Speaker 2 (32:49):
Are you entering that one by a chance?
Speaker 4 (32:51):
Oh, there's more than a million dollar survivor Circus Sports.
Speaker 2 (32:55):
Maybe it's a one hundred thousand dollars buy in some ridiculous.
Speaker 4 (32:57):
Oh yes, what you're referring to is is doing something
they called they have dubbed it the Grandissimo. It's a
one hundred thousand dollars buy in.
Speaker 2 (33:07):
That's it. Yeah, yeah, yes, are you doing that?
Speaker 4 (33:11):
Oh heck no, I don't. I'll do the one thousand.
Speaker 2 (33:14):
Dollars one yes, yes, yes.
Speaker 4 (33:15):
And I'll do that one multiple times with multiple entries,
but one hundred thousand dollars that we're trying to set
an over under as to how many how many entries
they're actually going to have in this they already think
they already have eight. I set it at thirty and
a half. Oh wow, that's my NUMBI you know. But
you know, here's the thing since legalization, since legalization, which
(33:39):
is twenty eighteen when Passport was ruled unconstitutional, the biggest
thing I've been surprised by, and I think this would
make more sense back in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen, twenty
twenty when we first got to see the new Frontier,
is just how many people seem to have endless disposable income.
(33:59):
I can't leave somebody, are sure one hundred thousand dollars
or in this case maybe you have three friends and
you know all four of you go in twenty five thousand.
Speaker 2 (34:07):
So that's a good question.
Speaker 3 (34:08):
Okay, So in the pick them with five teams, were
you're picking five games every week?
Speaker 4 (34:12):
Right?
Speaker 2 (34:12):
I do that one? You can do that with multiple
friends because.
Speaker 3 (34:15):
Everybody, Hey, you get one game, you get a right
right survivor if you do it four friends, twenty five
k pop, like what happens if there's disagreement like who
that's for the issue. So I don't know if you've
talked to Baker lately, but he's going to be selling
shares or like a thousand dollars here, and I think
I'm probably gonna contribute a little bit because I trust
(34:37):
that guy.
Speaker 2 (34:37):
He's super sharp when it comes to these contests.
Speaker 3 (34:40):
But I'm gonna add not that that he would take
my advice if I'm only putting in like two grand.
But I think that Denver Broncos have to be the
week one pick because they're at home against a rookie
quarterback at altitude right, and if you look at their schedule,
I don't like taking road teams like I wouldn't take
them in their next two. Then they host Joe Burrow
not sure I want to do that, and they play
the Jets international game. They do play the Giants in October.
(35:03):
But I mean, you know how these contests work. But
Survivor could be done before Halloween.
Speaker 4 (35:08):
Well, and the reason that they could last year, CIRCA
had their normal Survivor a thousand dollars entry. Three weeks
into it. Three weeks ninety eight plus percent were out.
Not never happened before. I mean, there's been sixty some percent,
there's been seventy some percent, but ninety eight percent, and
then after that it lasted the rest of the year.
(35:29):
So the remaining four hundred plus people, not all of them,
but those four hundred was a trickle down to the
end and there was only like a handful that chopped
at the end. But the Broncos are absolutely going to
be the number one pick. But the reason that ninety
eight percent get knocked out was because everybody was on
the Bengals Week one last year and everybody was on
the Bengals Week three last year. So the Broncos are
(35:50):
absolutely going to be the number one pick. I Bill
Washington will be the number two. So there's a game
theory to it. Yeah, you may want to stay off
the Broncos and then pray that everybody gets crushed.
Speaker 2 (36:01):
By Everybody's correct. That's interesting take.
Speaker 3 (36:04):
So you're right, Eagles are six and a half, Washington
six and a half. Those are divisional matchups. By the way,
does that factor into your survivor? Hey, divisional matchups tread
just a little bit cautiously.
Speaker 4 (36:13):
You know that's a survivor You know that's a survivor
sort of staple that people cite. Oh, I don't want
to do division matchups, but if you actually look into
the numbers on division matchups, it doesn't really hold up.
Speaker 2 (36:25):
There's nothing okay, yeah.
Speaker 4 (36:26):
Doesn't really hold up. Yeah, but that that is a
fear of many though.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Yeah, well look at me. Look at all Square a
week one Denverify.
Speaker 4 (36:37):
Yeah, remember, Jason, the object is not to survive, The
object is to win. The game is misnamed.
Speaker 2 (36:44):
Yeah, I play it the wrong way.
Speaker 3 (36:45):
I'm like, listen, I take it one week at a time.
I just want to let me win this week and
worry about next week next week. Yeah, most people that's
a bad strategy though, right.
Speaker 4 (36:54):
You know I would love to sit here and tell
you yes, I mean I have said this for years.
That is a that is a add strategy. But the
truth is fine, is that I got knocked out in
the third week last year, last year, so maybe maybe
I'm not so smart.
Speaker 3 (37:07):
Yeah, I like all these guys who game theory and
are like, oh, no, you gotta save this team for
Detroit week nine.
Speaker 2 (37:12):
That's that's gotta save it. I'm like, bro, week nine,
it's two months away.
Speaker 4 (37:17):
Well, the biggest yeah, and the biggest advice I can
give is because because what you said in there, there's
a there's a kernel, there's a massive kernel of wisdom,
which is weeks one through three. What that really proved
last year is the smart people who you know then strategize.
They might be smart to do that after the first
few weeks, but the first few weeks, none of us
(37:38):
knows a damn thing.
Speaker 2 (37:40):
Right, it's a good point.
Speaker 4 (37:41):
Yeah, that's and that's the thing. And then so point
spreads are preseason prognostications, all that stuff. We're just theorizing.
But until we see these guys on the field playing
the regular season for a few weeks, because remember the
even the preseason is one week shorter now too, Right,
when there were four games, every team used four games
(38:02):
of preseason every team used to follow the same script,
where like they would play their starters in week three
of the preseason, they would have some reps. Now with
three weeks, every team plays it differently. Some teams don't
even play anybody, So it takes a few weeks of
the regular season for us to really get our bearings.
Speaker 2 (38:16):
That's a great point.
Speaker 3 (38:17):
I think I saw stat that five teams that were
favored to miss the playoffs last year.
Speaker 2 (38:23):
Ended up making it, and they were all in the NFC.
Speaker 3 (38:25):
I think, of course by like the Minnesotas of the world,
but it was maybe it was.
Speaker 2 (38:31):
An off year, maybe go back to some normalcy.
Speaker 4 (38:33):
Is it possible, It's possible. I mean, I listen, I
don't predict ninety eight percent of survivors are going to
be out in any year in three weeks. But if
it's seventy percent, that's the norm. That's the norm, because
we don't know. That's the thing, even those of us
who this is our job. I think the humility of
the NFL, you know, the any given Sunday, the humility
(38:54):
of being able to say this is the one league
we're early on. We shouldn't get too as Maria's by
our own thoughts.
Speaker 3 (39:01):
Yeah, yeah, that makes sense. And it's like, hey man,
I'm saving Pat Mahomes for Week eight. Mahomes gets knocked
out in week six.
Speaker 2 (39:07):
He's done for the season.
Speaker 4 (39:08):
Yeah.
Speaker 2 (39:09):
Yeah, it's just it's NFL.
Speaker 3 (39:11):
That's why it's so hard on why we love it, right,
Gil Alexander Viisen the Numbers Game.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
He's great. He knows his stuff. Gil, thanks a lot, man,
thanks for coming on.
Speaker 4 (39:18):
Jason, thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.
Fox Sports Radio News
Host
Jonas Knox
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