August 1, 2021 • 47 mins
Bernie Fratto is back for a Saturday edition of Straight Outta Vegas, and he’s telling you how you can make some money on the NFL preseason! Bernie explains why he’s not a big fan of the Lakers acquisition of Russell Westbrook, why Bernie doesn’t value the Las Vegas Raiders, and more!
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(01:46):
Don't listening to Fox Sports well as we are hours
away from the NFL Hall of Fame game, and our
fancy turns more fervently to the Gridiron. I'm reminded of
a quote from all Or Wendell Holmes, who once said
man's mind stretched to a new dimension never returns to
its original state. And that is our goal tonight to
(02:08):
stretch your mind to make you think well and along
the way, maybe tossing a few high jinks. And on
that note, welcome back to another award winning edition of
Straight Out of Vegas, the weekend adaptation. I'm Bernie Fratto,
Where coming you Alive? From the Las Vegas Fox Sports
Radio Studios. I want to remind you Discover matches. All
(02:28):
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limitations apply. So when the Cowboys and Steelers kicking off
in the Hall of Fame game this Thursday, and the
(02:49):
preseason games are under way, well, it's going to provide
something we haven't had in six months, the opportunity to
bet on a live NFL game. And why do the
pros believe the preseason is far less risky than the
regular season when it comes to betting. We're gonna take
a deeper dive tonight and I'm going to explain, like
our good buddy Arnie Spanier says, the preseason is the
(03:13):
free season. Of course, it's a plan words. Nothing's free,
but you get the point. It's less risky to bet
than the regular season. I bet you didn't know that. UH.
In about fifteen minutes, we'll be joined by a long
time sports book operator, good buddy of mine here in
Las Vegas, Mr Dave Sharapin, and will continue with more
NFL talk after Kevin figures update. We'll talk about the
(03:36):
latest story swirling around Las Vegas, will take a closer
look at the Las Vegas Raiders and why there's season
over underwin total is seven and a half, which has
the Natives restless and upset. But I'll explain why the
numbers there. Of course, we close down the show with
macin on sports to stretch your mind and give you
(03:57):
the kind of data you only find in this show
sports or entertainment. But they're more than that, they're shared experience.
As such, people want to talk about them. You've come
to the right place. We've got a lot to talk
about tonight. This is straight out of Vegas, the pregame
show you always wanted. As they say in Kirk Cousins, Minnesota,
it's gonna be let by the way programming note, when
(04:18):
I sign off at UH, eleven fifty five PM. I'll
sign right back on at midnight. We'll take you all
the way through to three am Pacific and six am Eastern.
All right. You might hear people say, don't bet NFL
preseason football, big mistake, You're degenerate. Couldn't be further from
(04:38):
the truth. It's actually easier than capping the regular season
because in many cases you can read ahead of time
the exact game plan for each team, and the NFL
preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a
nice bank roll, even though the limits are smaller for
the upcoming regular season, because if you do your homework,
the preseason offers sharps and amateurs and wreck creational betters
(05:00):
and tremendous opportunity to make yourself some coin. Here's why.
First of all, the outcomes of preseason games really have
anything to do with the talent on the respective teams,
since the majority of the games are played by second, third,
four string guys, guys that will be working at NAP
Auto Parts UH next month. Nothing against that. It's good work,
(05:25):
but not everybody can play in the NFL. And here's
the other thing. Some coaches care about winning preseason games.
They really do, while others do not. Thus, betting on
coaches with great preseason records is an easier way to
make money. There are also some pretty significant trends that
don't lie. As I get into this, I'm going to
talk about which coaches you're like backing and which coaches
(05:48):
you like fading. There's a couple other things that play here. Depth,
so quarterbacks and continuity. They're really the key the NFL.
The NFL preseason wagers, just like those during the regular season,
often come down to the last eight minutes of a game.
So look at teams and fine teams that have solid
depth at quarterback or some experience or success in the league.
(06:12):
There are plenty of depth charts and they're all listed.
They're easy to find. I was just one with Arnie
and Aaron an hour ago, and we were talking about
whether or not the Texans might be a good bet
this year because they're to one. Well, I don't think
that Shawn Watson's gonna play. He's QB four right now.
They list the depth chart to Rob Taylor's one, Davis
(06:32):
Mills's two, Jeff Driscoll's three. Will all teams lifted list
of the depth chart and so there are gonna you're
you're going to find situations where one team might have
a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game
when you've got a quarterback who's actually been in the
league and been uh, you know, against real bullets flying,
and they're playing against the third or four string defense
(06:54):
and maybe a quarterback on the other side who's you know,
wet between the years. Experience, it's just a big thing too.
And I don't really necessarily mean the team that has
the most gruppul veterans on an effect. That kind of
experience can be a detriment because most older players hate
preseason games, and teams that have established players in certain
positions or roles will often see those guys basically kind
(07:16):
of mail it in during the preseason because they know
the games are meaningless and most of them have their
jobs locked up. However, experience is a key factor when
it comes to handicapping coaches and systems. The organizations that
haven't experienced much turnaround or turnover, well, they have a
significant advantage over those that are easing into a new
brain trust. For example, take the Seattle Seahawks. They've pretty
(07:39):
much been running peat Carroll system, since the Seahawks are
gonna be much sharper than a team that is going
through drafting changes. Take the Philadelphia Eagles, for example, they're
breaking in a brand new coach, Nick Serriani, a new
offensive coordinator Shane Stiken, a new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon,
and you key on clubs that have familiarity and continuity
(08:00):
and fade the ones that don't. And this is really
an important point to UH to note because when when
you're learning on the job, you're not thinking about winning
the game. You're thinking about learning on the job and
getting ready for the regular season. Whereas on the other
side you've got situations where again the continuity of the team,
(08:20):
the system of terminology they're used to it. Here's another
key thing, this is very key. There are seven new
head coaches for the season, and first year head coaches
can be a little tricky, but generally, generally first year
head coaches performed very well in their first August home game.
(08:45):
Let's just take a look at the last five years.
Six and one against the spread in their first home game.
For new coaches five years ago, five and two against
the number in four and one against the spread. Ineen,
it's six and two in nineteen. Obviously there was no
preseason in added up, you're twenty one and six in
(09:07):
the last four preseasons combined. What's that puts you at
about six? If you cash at sixty six percent, you
can make all the money you want to make. And
a lot of expectations are put on these new guys
coming in. They all want to show the owner of
the general manager, the players, the fans he's the right
man for the job. So setting this early tone means
(09:29):
playing to win in the preseason. And by the way,
there's only three preseason games this year, so it's even
more important to win early. Arthur Smith, he's a brand
new coach in Atlanta. Dan Campbell the new guy in Detroit.
David Culley with the Houston Texans, some guy you may
have heard of, Urban Meyer Jacksonville Jaguars. Brandon Staley is
(09:51):
the new coach in UH for the Chargers. Nick Sirianni,
who I just mentioned, the Philadelphia Eagles, and finally Robert
stal Uh the New York Jets. As I just said,
first year coaches do very well. Twenty one and six
cumulatively in their first home home preseason game. Now, the
(10:12):
other thing, you want to look at his competition in philosophy,
and if you know how head coaches were raised in
what their philosophies are, you're still going to have a
good advantage in August. They'll giving example, here's one head
coach that treats the preseason as if it's life for death.
Guy by the name of John Harniball or the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are seventeen and oh in the last pour
four preseasons that John Hardball has coached, and he covered
(10:35):
the spread in sixteen of them. By the way, in
his career he started seven and twelve against the spread
overall in the preseason. If you'd just backed him blindly,
you'd have made a small fortune on the flip side.
Sean McVeigh the l A Rams, clearly he hates the preseason.
He uses August to scout his younger guys while keeping
his starters and backup Salthie. That's his philosophy. That's the idea.
(10:59):
You want to know who who's got what philosophy and
how they'll approach these preseason games philosophically. Now in the
Rams win one and three against the number in preseason.
Sean McVeigh in his short career in the NFL is
five and eight against the spread, and frankly could be
worse because the odds makers really inflate the rams opponents
(11:19):
lines because they know right. Be careful again, keep an
eye also on Seattle Seahawks this August. Pete Carroll has
always played to win in the preseason. Evidence to buy
a thirty six and eighteen record, that's six against the spread.
Why would you expect Seattle not to do well in
(11:41):
the preseason again this year? Peat caress philosophy and as
I said, they've had the same terminology in the same
system for ten years. How about motivation? If you want
the NFL for any number of years, you know that
not every head coach cares about winning. As I just said,
they have different agendas. They handle the preseason differently. The
key is you do little local research, read local beat
(12:02):
writer's columns a lot a lot of times they're very
revealing on what they'll say. One final thing, scheduling the
NFL preseason schedule isn't typically too taxing, but one thing
to know that the two teams they're playing the Hall
of Fame game. That's Pittsburgh and Dallas. They're typically a
good bet to fade in their next game. If some
of the key players are banged up, you can expect
those guys in street clothes in Week two. Another team
(12:25):
to really watch the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings went seven
and nine straight up, but in the preseason. Mike Zimmer,
he's eighteen and eight against the spread. That's in the preseason,
and he's always played to win August games, especially when
he follows up on a losing regular season. Now, they've
also got a pretty good quarterback UH depth chart in Minnesota.
(12:49):
You've had Kirk Cousins, Jake Browning, Nate Stanley. These guys
are have been in the league. The Vikings minus three
at home against the Colts in Week two. All of
a sudden, that looks pretty good, doesn't it. That's August
twenty one. I'm talking about Week two, UH in the preseason. Now,
with that news coming out of Indianapolis, you don't know
where their head is at all. Right, A couple of
(13:11):
things here that I want to point out. These are
the records of the coaches that you want to back.
Pete Carroll, John Gruden, thirty six and eighteen. I had
mentioned him, Mike Tomlin, twenty three, John Harbor, I've already
mentioned thirty seven and twelve, Mike Zimmer. Uh have I
left anybody out now? Brian Flores, He's only had four
preseason games in his career, uh as they head coach
(13:35):
in Miami. But he's one all four, covered all four.
The guys that don't Andy Reid couldn't care less thirty
nine and forty five lifetime, Mike very able to win six,
Bruce Arians also under five hundred. What's his significance? You
will know that those teams when they take the field
with those coaches, aren't going to be focused on winning.
Here's a couple of other trends for you. The Chiefs,
(13:57):
who I just mentioned, there's a trend where they're two
and twenty three against the spread. If the Chiefs lose
a preseason game and then they face an opponent the
following week coming off a win, the Chiefs are two
and twenty three in that situation. You know what to do,
all right? Why don't we end this up with the
(14:19):
best bet for week one? Week one in the preseason,
that is, here's another trend for you. Super Bowl champions
since forty five and sixty two. Typically, if you just
faded them blindly, make all the money you want to make.
By the way, also, for what it's worth, super Bowl
(14:42):
champions four and fourteen against the spread in the preseason
since well, the preseason game that I know a lot
of pros already are looking at Week one the preseason. Again,
one final trend. I'm trying to get as many of
these as I can. Preseason favorites of six or more
(15:02):
in game one. This is only a game one trend
six or more, only five and ten against the spreads.
Wouldn't you know it? The preseason? Uh. Week one game
features Cincinnati catching six points at Tampa Bay. Not Tampa
Bay is the Super Bowl defending champion. They're laying six points.
So you've got two solid trends there. Uh. If you
(15:25):
faded super Bowl champions in the preseason, you're five and
ten in the last since and also preseason favorites of
six or more. Uh about since So it looks like
Cincinnati plus six Week one in the preseason will be
a pretty solid bet. You will see Joe Burrow taking
(15:47):
snaps against the brand new, rebuilt offensive line, and I
think They've improved their offensive line. It was a priority,
and I think Cincinnati wants to be competitive, They want
to get off. They had a bad from what happened
last year. That actually is a pretty solid play. I
don't even think you'll see Brady on the fielding man
(16:07):
and even be dressed. He won't take any snaps, but
Joe Burrow will. Alright, coming up, We're gonna bring it
back out to Vegas and talk to a good friend
of mine, longtime sports book director here, Dave share Pan
of Pittsburgh. Guy. Maybe we'll talk about the Steelers, but
we'll certainly talk a lot more NFL. I'm Bernie Freddo Company,
a line from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios.
(16:28):
This is the pregame show you always wanted, So don't
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Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot
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F s R to listen live. Hey, it's me Rob Parker.
(16:50):
Check out my weekly MLB podcast, Inside the Parker for
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get your podcast. Thunderstruck adjective shocked in amazed by the
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start exploring and discover the forest dot org brought to
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You're back on Straight Out Vegas, the pregame show you
always wanted im Bernie Freder Comedy Alive and they lost
Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios And one of the big
news items this week among many news items was a
trade involved being the Los Angeles Lakers, and it even
(19:02):
affected the betty markets because the Lakers went from being
nine to two favorites to win the championship to seven
to two favorites, all because of one guy who is
very polarizing and he's on his fourth team in four years.
Let me unpack this for just a second from the
way I see it. So see the Lakers, instead of
(19:24):
adding some much needed shooting, they traded for arguably or
Russell Westbrook. Gosh, he's got me tripping over my tongue,
arguably one of the bigger ball hogs in the history
of the NBA. Can Lebron James makes sense of this
new Big three al right? Because the long and the
short of it is, Lebron James is a primary playmaker.
(19:46):
He needs a secondary playmaker. Russ Westbrook is a primary
playmaker and he's not a space creator. And I know
Lebron James likes having to quote another big three in place,
but Westbrook's going on thirty seven. He he doesn't need
to attack and physically move defenders out in order to
(20:08):
be able to touch the ball. Look, defenders don't even
guard Westbrook on the perimeter when he doesn't have the ball,
north should they. One of the ironies is about this
trade is when the Lakers played the Rockets in the bubble,
they just left Westbrook alone outside the shoot and it worked.
So here's a guy. And even last year when he
(20:31):
was putting up crazy numbers and they got to the
playoffs when he was on, when Westbrook was playing with
guys like like James Harden and Bradley Beale over the
last couple of seasons, Westbrook shot a miserable on catch
and shoot threes. Now, completing the deal with the Wizards
and and matching Westbrook's hefty salary, it costs the Lakers,
(20:53):
Montreal Stal Harold, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell, Pope and the
number twenty two pick in Thursday Nights draft. For what
It's a giant swing from a franchise. They had the
luxury to play it safer, especially from a salary cap perspective.
Do you really need a ball dominant lead guard when
you already have James and Anthony Davis And had they
(21:13):
not gotten hurt last year, I still think the Lakers
would have been a you know, strong favorite to get
to the finals and maybe even win. Again, I can't
say this is a good move. Why what are you getting?
You're getting a triple double machine who's play tales off
every now and then, and the result usually means the
teams finished about five and they end up in an
(21:36):
early exit in the playoffs. You know, I'm gonna repeat myself.
Russell Westbrook is a primary playmaker, so it is Lebron.
They needed a secondary playmaker, and they needed more wim
rim protection, and they need better three point shooters. Can
you honestly say Russell Westbrook fits that? Bill and Westbrook
in addition to having a spotty perimeter game and his
(22:00):
ever present potential, now look, you know I'm right here,
the ever president potential to disrupt team chemistry. These are
things that should concern Lakers backers. If you don't believe me,
just ask k D, Just ask Paul George. There's a
reason he's on his fourth team in four years. And again,
(22:22):
when the Lakers played the Rockets last year in the
UH Bubble, they basically left Russell Westbrook alone outside to
shoot and it works, all right. You know, maybe they
can prove me wrong. Another team that I think is
gonna prove us wrong here. I didn't panic when the
Olympic team lost a couple of exhibition games and when
(22:44):
they lost to France and great. So they beat Iran
and they beat the Czech Republic and they made twenty
threes in the game against the Czech Republic. I still
think they're going to win the gold medal. And their
minus two fifty it's amazing because you could have gotten
the Olympic team and minus two hundred before the game
(23:05):
against Iran. At one point they were they were minus
the thousand, which means you had to put up a
dollar or check that you have to put up ten
dollars just to win one. Now they they've just gone
from two to one to minus two fifty. Pretty good
value on a team with future Hall of famers on it.
And so who do they play next, Well, it looks
like they're going to play either Italy or the loser
(23:27):
of Spain and Slovenia, and after that I would suspicion
to get by that. So I can I think you can.
You can probably put them in the semifinals right now,
but I'm not one confident. As you look at this team,
they're basically a group of individual stars and roles that
(23:48):
very much differ from their respective NBA teams. All right,
So up until the last couple of games, and still
a little bit. They kind of take turns going long
stretches without touches of the ball, so they to really
get into the rhythm, and because there are a bunch
of individuals trying to gel uh, you know, it's like
my turn, this this trip down, your turn, next trip down.
(24:10):
And I don't think anybody fears the United States anymore.
They can't win on reputation. The intimidation factor in the
past was probably worth fifteen points a game, but when
you saw them lose to France, France was a legit
team with an established offensive pecking order. I really didn't
see much of the Iranian game and saw just bits
and pieces of the Czech Republic game. The check team
(24:32):
hung in there, and I think it was just the
depth and stardom of the h U S team that
was able to pull away. So I do think. I
do think the US is still probably gonna win the Gold.
It make you a little bumpy here a couple of times,
but one of the things that concerns me greatly about
this team is they're still they're too reliant on the
(24:55):
three point shot. Even against the Czech Republic, you know,
might that a margin of victory had been a little misleading.
They made twenty threes and and I think in the
last I want to say the last four or five quarters,
five quarters, uh check that it might be the last
two and a half quarters. They made sixteen out of thirty.
(25:17):
So they're making their threes. But before they weren't making
their threees. You saw the nine straight miss shots in
that game against France. France had a fourteen run to
finish the game, and at that point then you know
the US was twelve and a half point favorite. There
there was no simplistic cancer and I think you you know,
it's pretty clear they hadn't played together on offense. And
(25:37):
I would just say this that in that style of play,
you could make a case they might not win the goal.
But I'm sticking to my guns that they're going to
win the gold. But what I would like to see
them do is use their extreme athleticism and elite world
class athleticism to take advantage of the world, which I
(25:58):
know they can do it each him they want. They've
got athletes, they can beat their man off the bounce anytime.
That way, you get more driving, kick, you get to
the rim, you draw contact, you get to the free
throw line, maybe get an an one stop settling for
for threes and why not in this international game. Beat
your guy off the bounce, get down, low driving kick,
(26:21):
establish a mid range game. And I think one of
the things that will seal it for the US is
that they'll start to play desperate on defense when they
need to encourunche time, and that's when you'll see their
athleticism and depth come through. No guarantees, but I'm still
predicting the USA to win the gold and you can
get very good value on them now. They're minus to
(26:43):
fifty coming up. I don't have the same kind of
optimism about the Raiders, and it's got some local people
here a little upset with me, and I'm going to explain,
and I think you'll agree with me when I get
done with my oratory. But first, if you had one shot,
one opportunity to see everything you ever wanted in an update,
would you better listen up. Let's go to Kevin Figures
(27:04):
with the ladies. I appreciate that, Bernie. We have the
final round of golf at the Olympics in Tokyo coming
down to the wire right now. Roy Sabatini of Slovakia
is in the clubhouse. He's tied for the lead with
San Diego native Xanders Shafley, who bogie at fourteen and
made par at fifteen Deci matsu Yama, of course, representing
the host country Japan, has bogie two of the last
(27:24):
three holes. He has two strokes back with three remaining.
Caleb Dressel became the fourth swimmer to win five gold
medals in a single Olympics after taking the fifty meter
freestyle and the four by one hundred metley. Jymnasimone Biles
will not compete in the individual floor exercise and her
status for the balance beam is unknown. In the NFL,
the Browns and running back Nick Chubb I have agreed
(27:45):
to a three year contract extension. The Saint signed running
back DeVante Freeman to a one year deal. In hardball, however,
your bias hitting his first home run of the out
of the season, but his first home run as a met,
I should say in a tend any victory over the Reds.
Dodgers over Arizona eight to three, as Justin Turner went
deep there Anthony Rizzo. Yet they know the home run
for the Yankees as they defeated at Miami five of
(28:06):
his last six games. Anthony Rizzo has gone deep wins
for the Angels, Braves, and Giants, Tampa Bay defeating Boston,
taking a half game lead in the American League East
back to straight out of Vegas. Thanks so much, Kevin,
appreciate that Discover matches all the cash back you earn
on your credit card at the end of your first year.
It's amazing because discovers accepted it. The places in the
(28:28):
US to take credit cards. Learn more Discover dot com
slash Yes Nielson Report limitations apply. All right. They did
a couple of local radio shows this week. As you know,
it's been in all the papers. The Raiders are now
in Vegas beautiful new stadium, Allegian Field. This would be
the first year they get to play in front of fans.
They open up at home against the Baltimore Ravens. They
(28:51):
opened up as a six point underdog. They're currently a
four or four and a half point underdog, depending on
where you shop. And Baltimore Ravens quarterback uh lamarch Xidon
has tested positive for COVID, but I'm sure he'll be
fine by opening uh by opening day. So the Raiders
inter this season with high hopes, uh, although I would
(29:14):
say the hopes are a lot because Raider Nation is
such an incredibly dedicated, loyal, emotionally invested fan base, perhaps
the greatest in all the sports. The team's relocated three
or four times, they follow morever they go. They've got
fans all around the world they're in. It's an incredible,
incredible fan base. But that doesn't mean that the Raiders
(29:36):
are gonna win on the field because they have such
a great fan base, even though some folks would like
it to be that way. Last year, they started out
six and three, They even beat Cleveland, they beat Kansas City,
they beat New Orleans. They looked impressive. Unfortunately, they were
two and five down the stretch, which created it. I
think a lot of challenging questions heading into this season,
which is why the Raiders currently their season win over
(29:59):
under tow lit All is seven and a half and
the pros I talked to and the people I know
are betting the under, which I think has Raider Nation
fans a bit up in arms. But there's a lot
of questions. First of all, what changes will new defensive
coordinator Gus Bradley bring to the Raiders defense. The Raiders
(30:21):
five ranked defense. I might mention were the early projections
and sorting out the Raiders defensive secondary. How all the
Raiders revamped offensive line shake out this coming year. The
Raiders UH added John Brown a wide receiver, and they
moved Nelson Agilare along, So did that mean they get
(30:43):
an upgrade? One of the other things I think that's
got to be very challenging for any Raider fan, if
we're being honest with ourselves, is the Raiders have the
eighth toughest strength of schedule in the National Football League.
This year they played teams with the cumulative five thirty
winning percentage, and not for nothing, the Raiders play seven
(31:06):
playoff teams. They have to go to Indianapolis, which, now
if they don't have Carson Wentz might look a whole
lot different. But still, anytime you going to the road
and the National Football League its gauntlet, but you go
to Indy, you go to Cleveland. They traveled to the
New York Giants, who I think would be improved. They
get Pittsburgh UH on the road, and then they've got
(31:29):
to go to Dallas as well. I think around Thanksgiving UH,
and then of course you know you've got Kansas City
in Denver, those are not going to be any picnics either.
People asked me what I thought the toughest stretch of
the Raider schedule is, because they have a couple of
tough stretches later in the year. But for me, and
having covered the NFL and the Detroit Lions for ten years,
(31:53):
just about seeing it all, uh pre postgame show. The
first year I did was burious enters last year and
the last year was two thousand eight. Rod Marinelli's infamous
only sixteen Lions team. Yes, I covered that team, by
the way, not for nothing, uh. Rod Marinelli is also
a defensive coach for the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders. A
(32:17):
lot of meat on the bone here with the Raiders.
And if if you're scoring at home, and I hope
you are, they're eighty two one to win the Super
Bowl and their plus three forty to make the playoffs,
which means there's probably about a seventy percent chance chance
according to those numbers, they don't make the playoffs. So
back to the toughest stretch in terms of what do
I think in terms of their toughest stretch right out
(32:40):
of the gate, Because the Raiders in their first two
games and in their first four games. They cannot afford
to be one in three and climb up hill the
rest of the way. They simply can't afford that. Week one,
you've got Baltimore. You know Baltimore will come in loaded
for bear and they've done nothing except improve. You tell me,
(33:01):
do the Raiders have the talent on defense to keep
the likes of Lamar Jackson and J. K. Dobbins and
Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown and Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman?
Can you keep them all in check? Now? I think
scoring points uh won't be an issue for the Raiders.
(33:22):
And I think offensively the Raiders should be very respectable,
So that side of the ball will be the Raiders
saving grace, as it were. But the defensive side of
the ball is going to continue to be an issue
for John Gruden. And if I'm a betting man, I'm
not laying the four six points all but I will
(33:45):
say this, I don't I can't see Baltimore coming in
here week one and dropping Anything can happen to National
Football League. But I don't think Baltimore loses that game
Week one. Now, you gotta go to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is
gonna be an interesting match for the Raiders because the
Raiders have a completely rebuilt offensive line and Pittsburgh the
(34:06):
Estate lost Bud Dupree, but they added Melvin Ingram, who's
a fabulous hedge rusher, and you boocamed him with t. J.
Watt and you've got two outstanding edge rushers. Match that
with the rebuilt offensive line this offseason for the Raiders,
and this projects to be perhaps a tough game for
Derek Carr because Pittsburgh's defensive line is more than capable
(34:29):
of creating constant pressure and essentially maybe living in the backfield.
So this is going to be a close game, I'm
sure of it. But the long and the short of
it is is can they go to Pittsburgh with a
superior defensive line who's going to pressure Derek Carr and
get a win on the road, Then it gets interesting
(34:50):
and and and by the way, I'm going to repeat
myself again, the Raiders defense has been there, Achilles heal
because they are overall in and order for them to
be a serious contender or have an opportunity to make
a run of Kansas City or be a wild card
playoff team. They've got to be a top defense. If
they can, this team has a chance to go places.
(35:12):
That said though, or that is easier said than done.
Then the Raiders host Miami. You saw what happened with
Miami here last year. The good news is Miami no
longer has fifth Magic, But I think Brian Flores has
a going down there. I think Miami is a playoff
team this year. Pittsburgh's a playoff team last year. Baltimore
was a playoff team last year. Not an easy start
(35:33):
to the season. And then Week four I said I
thought the first four weeks would be a serious challenge. Well,
Week four the Raiders go to Los Angeles to play
the Chargers and Justin Herbert for their first division game
on the road on Monday Night football in Week four.
So there you have it. The Raiders are going to
(35:54):
have their work cut off for him and getting out
of the gate, they cannot go worse than two and
two an expect to be anywhere near that run in
the playoffs, as well as maybe even making a run
to get in that eighth victory to go over their
season ten win total. Now, I will say this thing,
one last thing. The Raiders. Actually, this season sort of
(36:16):
reminds me of two thousand sixteen when no one thought
they would do anything and their season total was seven.
They end up going twelve and four, and it's a
shame Derek car Broker's leg before the playoff game against
Houston because there's no telling. So you're seeing a market
line now. The market is speaking. They don't trust the Raiders.
Their skeptical. Too many questions, a tough schedule, ranked defense,
(36:38):
The markets are skeptical. Although I will also say this,
the NFL is always more interesting. It's like the Yankees
in baseball, the Celtics and Lakers and basketball. When the
Raiders are good, it's good for the NFL coming up.
You know, if you love him and you can't lay
without him, Mac and Own Sports from Mackenzie Rivers. He
will join us. I'm Bernie rat, a comedy live from
(37:01):
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio students. This is a
three game show you always wanted. Don't go away. You're
listening to straight at a base My name is this
our Shire? My linebacker for the San Francisco FORDA not
us COVID hit so many different people from the very
top to the very bottom. There's nobody not being affected
by COVID in some way, shape or form, and so
(37:22):
I think that that brought a lot of people together.
I've teamed up with cow Hope to let Californians know
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O P. What grows in the forest trees? Sure you
(37:46):
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the fourth dot Org, brought to you by the United
States Forth Service and the AD Council. Back on Straight
out of Vegas, the pregame show you always wanted. I'm
Bernie Freddo Comedy Alive from the Las Vegas Fox Sports
Radio Studios. Before I go any further, I want to
thank my broadcast team back in Los Angeles, turning all
the dials keeping us glued together. That would be Bowl, Benson,
(38:27):
Christ Perfett and Kevin Figures and they will be joining
me right through to three AM as well. So keep
it locked right here. At first, let's go to the man. Well,
you know him, you love me, can't lee without him.
It's that time of the week, Mac and I'm sports
with our own Mackenzie rivers Mackenzie. Now it's time to
match the NFL power ratings with when the season starts
(38:49):
and the rubber hits the road. What do you got, Yes,
it's that time of year. We turned the page to
the NFL. By the way, it's power rating Sea and
it's never too early. It might seem like, hey, these teams,
these teams aren't finalized. You might have heard the Packers
added a potential Hall of Fame receiver and Randall cob
(39:11):
I mean, what an acquisition that was. But well, what
we do in Vegas is we project the unexpected, We
project improbabilities. So the fact that we know how these
teams are doing right now, we project how they're going
to do in the future. Who do you think is
the best team in the NFL right now here? On
(39:31):
July thirte August one. Well, I know it's gonna be
power rated the Chiefs. How can it not be? But
tamp Tampa Bay in the Chiefs. You're right there. That's
my key, that's my statement. It's funny. You know, people
do college power ratings and there's four hundred teams and
everyone's within a half a point or a point with
it within each other. The same with the NFL. There's
thirty two teams all the analysis. Most people will get
(39:52):
pretty close, and you're right, the Chiefs or the Bucks
are going to be the one too of everybody's list.
For me, it is the Tampa Bay Bucks. I them
seven points better than the average team, the Chiefs a
notch below plus six and a half. We saw them
scrambled it with their offensive line. They added new pieces,
Kyle Long off the bench of retirement. I'm not sure
(40:13):
if it's all going to come back together. We talked
about them last week. Will they have the continuity to
make up for their age, you know, being got more
expensive older team. Speaking of which game of the decade,
potentially we just saw a game of the millennium. I
mean Tom Brady versus Met Mahomes will define who was
the quarterback of the millennium. By the way, it was
Tom Brady won seven Super Bowls. Ma Homes will never
(40:35):
catch him. So yeah, Brady millennium quarterback. But the two
thousand twenties, Brady might retire maybe, so the two thousand
twenties will be Aaron Rodgers versus Patrick Mahomes. So I'm
gonna calling Week nine game of the decade Packers at Chiefs.
Let's guess the line, Bernie, what do you think? Alright?
So if these two teams lined up on a neutral,
(40:57):
I'd probably make the Chiefs three. So I'm gonna all
it's six and a half. Wow, that's exactly the number
I wrote down on my little spreadsheet here, and it
says delta three, which is a rare delta because it
is only three and a half. The Packers plus three
and a half at Chiefs right now at the Westgate
(41:18):
Week nine. Westgate went ahead and made all seventeen weeks
this year. They had their wheaties this summer, so congrats
to them. That's an awesome thing to see. We can
compare all these teams throughout the year. But yeah, wow,
I wrote down six and a half. You think the
Chiefs are at least the field goal better than the post. Remember. Remember,
(41:38):
and for the folks who listen to the show, we
always want to remind people the line is not a predictor.
It's not a situation where I'm predicting that the Chiefs
will win that game by seven. What I am saying is,
you put the Chiefs six six and a half, You're
still gonna get Kansas City money. The books, the books
are just trying to create equal action on both sides. Yeah,
we remember the final four to the Packers, Bucks, Chiefs, Bills.
(42:03):
Those four teams seem pretty even the fact that the
Packers went out changed our perception a little bit. Let's
go to the other end of the spectrum, your end
of the woods. The Houston Texans are the worst team.
But you're Detroit Lions, I'm sorry to say, are power
rated at the second or it's almost everybody's list and speaking.
You know, we're here at the pregame studios. R J.
(42:26):
Bell's Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting you guys Week ten. What
do you think the line is? Detroit Lions Pittsburgh Steelers.
You know, it's just like playing Russian roulette when you
project the line ten weeks out and not knowing who's
gonna be healthy. And I don't know if you heard me.
With Arnie and Aaron, Pittsburgh starting five new offensive lion
(42:46):
starters playing there a new position for the first time
in their career. You get thirty nine year old Ben Roethlisberger,
who's got something to prove, but he's had more surgeries,
and Joan Rivers. I'm getting pretty good reports out of
Detroit that this team is gonna play hard to be
compared off. Still, having said all that, I make Pittsburgh
seven seven and a half. You're right, all you are
(43:06):
one of the voices of Vegas. Speaking of the voices
of Vegas. You talk about Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line the
day that de Castro was announced out. You know, he's
been dealing with that injury, has been trying to come back.
He's one of the veterans. He's probably the veteran lineman
coming back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was before he
had to retire or at least temporarily step aside. We
(43:30):
said it right here. Eight and a half wins Pittsburgh Steelers,
that's too much. You know, they've never had a losing season.
It might be better than fifty fifty that Mike Tomlin
will have the first time in his I think seventeen
year career, his first losing season. Because the Vegas market
has been plummeting. It's eight and it was eight and
a half flat. They're expected to win between eight and
(43:50):
nine games out of seventeen. Now it's closer to eight
eight and a quarter. Maybe you could call it. A
lot of betters in Vegas agreeing with r J what
we said on Vegas that day on straight out of Vegas,
Pittsburgh Steelers pessimism in the marketplace. Well, the pessimism, uh,
you know, it's relative either going to compete, all right,
they still got it in their DNA. They're they're not
(44:12):
gonna go off a cliff. So I think Pittsburgh will
be there. Well, we'll we'll be over five us put
it that way. We talked about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
My other Super Bowl team, the Buffalo Bills, will be
visiting the Saints. This was another Delta three on my spreadsheet.
What do you think the line is Game of the year.
Maybe Buffalo Bills at the New Orleans Saints Week twelve.
(44:33):
There's no doubt in my mind that the Bills are
going to be a short favorite. I'll I'll say it's
Buffalo minus two right on that It's exactly correct. I
had the Saints minus one. I was thinking, you know,
more respect to that new Arlans crowd. But Josh Allen
of m VP candidate maybe second m v P favorite
behind Patrick Mahomes. Alright, good stuff, mackenzie were McKenzie is
(44:58):
gonna be with us all night till three am. And
as we get to our final segment of Every Hour,
because you will have more good stuff like this and
we'll chop it up, go back and forth. That is
going to do it for this night's edition. Up straight
out of Vegas. Next up the man from Nashville. Now
he's off Bernie Fratto Inn keep it locked ray here
on Fox Sports Radio. Now, more than ever, being a
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my linebacker for the San Francisco forty ninus. COVID hit
(01:04):
so many different people, from the very top to the
very bottom. There's nobody not being affected by COVID in
some way, shape or form, and so I think that
that brought a lot of people together. I've teamed up
with cow Hope to let Californians know about the resources
and support available to all of you that may be
dealing with mental health issues. Go to cal Hope dot
org to chat with a live person, or call their
warmline at one eight three three three one seven hope.
(01:26):
That's eight three three three one seven h O P
What girls in the forest? Our imagination and our family bonds.
The forest is closer than you think. Find a forest
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(01:46):
Don't listening to Fox Sports well as we are hours
away from the NFL Hall of Fame game, and our
fancy turns more fervently to the Gridiron. I'm reminded of
a quote from all Or Wendell Holmes, who once said
man's mind stretched to a new dimension never returns to
its original state. And that is our goal tonight to
(02:08):
stretch your mind to make you think well and along
the way, maybe tossing a few high jinks. And on
that note, welcome back to another award winning edition of
Straight Out of Vegas, the weekend adaptation. I'm Bernie Fratto,
Where coming you Alive? From the Las Vegas Fox Sports
Radio Studios. I want to remind you Discover matches. All
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the cash back you earn on your credit card at
the end of your first year. It's amazing because discovers
accepted at the places in the US that take credit cards.
Learn more at Discovered dot com. Slash Yes Nielson Report
limitations apply. So when the Cowboys and Steelers kicking off
in the Hall of Fame game this Thursday, and the
(02:49):
preseason games are under way, well, it's going to provide
something we haven't had in six months, the opportunity to
bet on a live NFL game. And why do the
pros believe the preseason is far less risky than the
regular season when it comes to betting. We're gonna take
a deeper dive tonight and I'm going to explain, like
our good buddy Arnie Spanier says, the preseason is the
(03:13):
free season. Of course, it's a plan words. Nothing's free,
but you get the point. It's less risky to bet
than the regular season. I bet you didn't know that. UH.
In about fifteen minutes, we'll be joined by a long
time sports book operator, good buddy of mine here in
Las Vegas, Mr Dave Sharapin, and will continue with more
NFL talk after Kevin figures update. We'll talk about the
(03:36):
latest story swirling around Las Vegas, will take a closer
look at the Las Vegas Raiders and why there's season
over underwin total is seven and a half, which has
the Natives restless and upset. But I'll explain why the
numbers there. Of course, we close down the show with
macin on sports to stretch your mind and give you
(03:57):
the kind of data you only find in this show
sports or entertainment. But they're more than that, they're shared experience.
As such, people want to talk about them. You've come
to the right place. We've got a lot to talk
about tonight. This is straight out of Vegas, the pregame
show you always wanted. As they say in Kirk Cousins, Minnesota,
it's gonna be let by the way programming note, when
(04:18):
I sign off at UH, eleven fifty five PM. I'll
sign right back on at midnight. We'll take you all
the way through to three am Pacific and six am Eastern.
All right. You might hear people say, don't bet NFL
preseason football, big mistake, You're degenerate. Couldn't be further from
(04:38):
the truth. It's actually easier than capping the regular season
because in many cases you can read ahead of time
the exact game plan for each team, and the NFL
preseason is a great opportunity to start and build a
nice bank roll, even though the limits are smaller for
the upcoming regular season, because if you do your homework,
the preseason offers sharps and amateurs and wreck creational betters
(05:00):
and tremendous opportunity to make yourself some coin. Here's why.
First of all, the outcomes of preseason games really have
anything to do with the talent on the respective teams,
since the majority of the games are played by second, third,
four string guys, guys that will be working at NAP
Auto Parts UH next month. Nothing against that. It's good work,
(05:25):
but not everybody can play in the NFL. And here's
the other thing. Some coaches care about winning preseason games.
They really do, while others do not. Thus, betting on
coaches with great preseason records is an easier way to
make money. There are also some pretty significant trends that
don't lie. As I get into this, I'm going to
talk about which coaches you're like backing and which coaches
(05:48):
you like fading. There's a couple other things that play here. Depth,
so quarterbacks and continuity. They're really the key the NFL.
The NFL preseason wagers, just like those during the regular season,
often come down to the last eight minutes of a game.
So look at teams and fine teams that have solid
depth at quarterback or some experience or success in the league.
(06:12):
There are plenty of depth charts and they're all listed.
They're easy to find. I was just one with Arnie
and Aaron an hour ago, and we were talking about
whether or not the Texans might be a good bet
this year because they're to one. Well, I don't think
that Shawn Watson's gonna play. He's QB four right now.
They list the depth chart to Rob Taylor's one, Davis
(06:32):
Mills's two, Jeff Driscoll's three. Will all teams lifted list
of the depth chart and so there are gonna you're
you're going to find situations where one team might have
a tremendous advantage in the closing moments of a game
when you've got a quarterback who's actually been in the
league and been uh, you know, against real bullets flying,
and they're playing against the third or four string defense
(06:54):
and maybe a quarterback on the other side who's you know,
wet between the years. Experience, it's just a big thing too.
And I don't really necessarily mean the team that has
the most gruppul veterans on an effect. That kind of
experience can be a detriment because most older players hate
preseason games, and teams that have established players in certain
positions or roles will often see those guys basically kind
(07:16):
of mail it in during the preseason because they know
the games are meaningless and most of them have their
jobs locked up. However, experience is a key factor when
it comes to handicapping coaches and systems. The organizations that
haven't experienced much turnaround or turnover, well, they have a
significant advantage over those that are easing into a new
brain trust. For example, take the Seattle Seahawks. They've pretty
(07:39):
much been running peat Carroll system, since the Seahawks are
gonna be much sharper than a team that is going
through drafting changes. Take the Philadelphia Eagles, for example, they're
breaking in a brand new coach, Nick Serriani, a new
offensive coordinator Shane Stiken, a new defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon,
and you key on clubs that have familiarity and continuity
(08:00):
and fade the ones that don't. And this is really
an important point to UH to note because when when
you're learning on the job, you're not thinking about winning
the game. You're thinking about learning on the job and
getting ready for the regular season. Whereas on the other
side you've got situations where again the continuity of the team,
(08:20):
the system of terminology they're used to it. Here's another
key thing, this is very key. There are seven new
head coaches for the season, and first year head coaches
can be a little tricky, but generally, generally first year
head coaches performed very well in their first August home game.
(08:45):
Let's just take a look at the last five years.
Six and one against the spread in their first home game.
For new coaches five years ago, five and two against
the number in four and one against the spread. Ineen,
it's six and two in nineteen. Obviously there was no
preseason in added up, you're twenty one and six in
(09:07):
the last four preseasons combined. What's that puts you at
about six? If you cash at sixty six percent, you
can make all the money you want to make. And
a lot of expectations are put on these new guys
coming in. They all want to show the owner of
the general manager, the players, the fans he's the right
man for the job. So setting this early tone means
(09:29):
playing to win in the preseason. And by the way,
there's only three preseason games this year, so it's even
more important to win early. Arthur Smith, he's a brand
new coach in Atlanta. Dan Campbell the new guy in Detroit.
David Culley with the Houston Texans, some guy you may
have heard of, Urban Meyer Jacksonville Jaguars. Brandon Staley is
(09:51):
the new coach in UH for the Chargers. Nick Sirianni,
who I just mentioned, the Philadelphia Eagles, and finally Robert
stal Uh the New York Jets. As I just said,
first year coaches do very well. Twenty one and six
cumulatively in their first home home preseason game. Now, the
(10:12):
other thing, you want to look at his competition in philosophy,
and if you know how head coaches were raised in
what their philosophies are, you're still going to have a
good advantage in August. They'll giving example, here's one head
coach that treats the preseason as if it's life for death.
Guy by the name of John Harniball or the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens are seventeen and oh in the last pour
four preseasons that John Hardball has coached, and he covered
(10:35):
the spread in sixteen of them. By the way, in
his career he started seven and twelve against the spread
overall in the preseason. If you'd just backed him blindly,
you'd have made a small fortune on the flip side.
Sean McVeigh the l A Rams, clearly he hates the preseason.
He uses August to scout his younger guys while keeping
his starters and backup Salthie. That's his philosophy. That's the idea.
(10:59):
You want to know who who's got what philosophy and
how they'll approach these preseason games philosophically. Now in the
Rams win one and three against the number in preseason.
Sean McVeigh in his short career in the NFL is
five and eight against the spread, and frankly could be
worse because the odds makers really inflate the rams opponents
(11:19):
lines because they know right. Be careful again, keep an
eye also on Seattle Seahawks this August. Pete Carroll has
always played to win in the preseason. Evidence to buy
a thirty six and eighteen record, that's six against the spread.
Why would you expect Seattle not to do well in
(11:41):
the preseason again this year? Peat caress philosophy and as
I said, they've had the same terminology in the same
system for ten years. How about motivation? If you want
the NFL for any number of years, you know that
not every head coach cares about winning. As I just said,
they have different agendas. They handle the preseason differently. The
key is you do little local research, read local beat
(12:02):
writer's columns a lot a lot of times they're very
revealing on what they'll say. One final thing, scheduling the
NFL preseason schedule isn't typically too taxing, but one thing
to know that the two teams they're playing the Hall
of Fame game. That's Pittsburgh and Dallas. They're typically a
good bet to fade in their next game. If some
of the key players are banged up, you can expect
those guys in street clothes in Week two. Another team
(12:25):
to really watch the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings went seven
and nine straight up, but in the preseason. Mike Zimmer,
he's eighteen and eight against the spread. That's in the preseason,
and he's always played to win August games, especially when
he follows up on a losing regular season. Now, they've
also got a pretty good quarterback UH depth chart in Minnesota.
(12:49):
You've had Kirk Cousins, Jake Browning, Nate Stanley. These guys
are have been in the league. The Vikings minus three
at home against the Colts in Week two. All of
a sudden, that looks pretty good, doesn't it. That's August
twenty one. I'm talking about Week two, UH in the preseason. Now,
with that news coming out of Indianapolis, you don't know
where their head is at all. Right, A couple of
(13:11):
things here that I want to point out. These are
the records of the coaches that you want to back.
Pete Carroll, John Gruden, thirty six and eighteen. I had
mentioned him, Mike Tomlin, twenty three, John Harbor, I've already
mentioned thirty seven and twelve, Mike Zimmer. Uh have I
left anybody out now? Brian Flores, He's only had four
preseason games in his career, uh as they head coach
(13:35):
in Miami. But he's one all four, covered all four.
The guys that don't Andy Reid couldn't care less thirty
nine and forty five lifetime, Mike very able to win six,
Bruce Arians also under five hundred. What's his significance? You
will know that those teams when they take the field
with those coaches, aren't going to be focused on winning.
Here's a couple of other trends for you. The Chiefs,
(13:57):
who I just mentioned, there's a trend where they're two
and twenty three against the spread. If the Chiefs lose
a preseason game and then they face an opponent the
following week coming off a win, the Chiefs are two
and twenty three in that situation. You know what to do,
all right? Why don't we end this up with the
(14:19):
best bet for week one? Week one in the preseason,
that is, here's another trend for you. Super Bowl champions
since forty five and sixty two. Typically, if you just
faded them blindly, make all the money you want to make.
By the way, also, for what it's worth, super Bowl
(14:42):
champions four and fourteen against the spread in the preseason
since well, the preseason game that I know a lot
of pros already are looking at Week one the preseason. Again,
one final trend. I'm trying to get as many of
these as I can. Preseason favorites of six or more
(15:02):
in game one. This is only a game one trend
six or more, only five and ten against the spreads.
Wouldn't you know it? The preseason? Uh. Week one game
features Cincinnati catching six points at Tampa Bay. Not Tampa
Bay is the Super Bowl defending champion. They're laying six points.
So you've got two solid trends there. Uh. If you
(15:25):
faded super Bowl champions in the preseason, you're five and
ten in the last since and also preseason favorites of
six or more. Uh about since So it looks like
Cincinnati plus six Week one in the preseason will be
a pretty solid bet. You will see Joe Burrow taking
(15:47):
snaps against the brand new, rebuilt offensive line, and I
think They've improved their offensive line. It was a priority,
and I think Cincinnati wants to be competitive, They want
to get off. They had a bad from what happened
last year. That actually is a pretty solid play. I
don't even think you'll see Brady on the fielding man
(16:07):
and even be dressed. He won't take any snaps, but
Joe Burrow will. Alright, coming up, We're gonna bring it
back out to Vegas and talk to a good friend
of mine, longtime sports book director here, Dave share Pan
of Pittsburgh. Guy. Maybe we'll talk about the Steelers, but
we'll certainly talk a lot more NFL. I'm Bernie Freddo Company,
a line from the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios.
(16:28):
This is the pregame show you always wanted, So don't
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Catch all of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot
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F s R to listen live. Hey, it's me Rob Parker.
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starting at nine Carnival choose on Cruiser and us al
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is a topic not enough people know about, and we're
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new podcast Navigating Adoption, presented by adopt us Kids. Each
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Visit adopt us Kids dot org, slash podcast, or subscribed
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start exploring and discover the forest dot org brought to
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You're back on Straight Out Vegas, the pregame show you
always wanted im Bernie Freder Comedy Alive and they lost
Vegas Fox Sports Radio Studios And one of the big
news items this week among many news items was a
trade involved being the Los Angeles Lakers, and it even
(19:02):
affected the betty markets because the Lakers went from being
nine to two favorites to win the championship to seven
to two favorites, all because of one guy who is
very polarizing and he's on his fourth team in four years.
Let me unpack this for just a second from the
way I see it. So see the Lakers, instead of
(19:24):
adding some much needed shooting, they traded for arguably or
Russell Westbrook. Gosh, he's got me tripping over my tongue,
arguably one of the bigger ball hogs in the history
of the NBA. Can Lebron James makes sense of this
new Big three al right? Because the long and the
short of it is, Lebron James is a primary playmaker.
(19:46):
He needs a secondary playmaker. Russ Westbrook is a primary
playmaker and he's not a space creator. And I know
Lebron James likes having to quote another big three in place,
but Westbrook's going on thirty seven. He he doesn't need
to attack and physically move defenders out in order to
(20:08):
be able to touch the ball. Look, defenders don't even
guard Westbrook on the perimeter when he doesn't have the ball,
north should they. One of the ironies is about this
trade is when the Lakers played the Rockets in the bubble,
they just left Westbrook alone outside the shoot and it worked.
So here's a guy. And even last year when he
(20:31):
was putting up crazy numbers and they got to the
playoffs when he was on, when Westbrook was playing with
guys like like James Harden and Bradley Beale over the
last couple of seasons, Westbrook shot a miserable on catch
and shoot threes. Now, completing the deal with the Wizards
and and matching Westbrook's hefty salary, it costs the Lakers,
(20:53):
Montreal Stal Harold, Kyle Kuzma, Kentavious Caldwell, Pope and the
number twenty two pick in Thursday Nights draft. For what
It's a giant swing from a franchise. They had the
luxury to play it safer, especially from a salary cap perspective.
Do you really need a ball dominant lead guard when
you already have James and Anthony Davis And had they
(21:13):
not gotten hurt last year, I still think the Lakers
would have been a you know, strong favorite to get
to the finals and maybe even win. Again, I can't
say this is a good move. Why what are you getting?
You're getting a triple double machine who's play tales off
every now and then, and the result usually means the
teams finished about five and they end up in an
(21:36):
early exit in the playoffs. You know, I'm gonna repeat myself.
Russell Westbrook is a primary playmaker, so it is Lebron.
They needed a secondary playmaker, and they needed more wim
rim protection, and they need better three point shooters. Can
you honestly say Russell Westbrook fits that? Bill and Westbrook
in addition to having a spotty perimeter game and his
(22:00):
ever present potential, now look, you know I'm right here,
the ever president potential to disrupt team chemistry. These are
things that should concern Lakers backers. If you don't believe me,
just ask k D, Just ask Paul George. There's a
reason he's on his fourth team in four years. And again,
(22:22):
when the Lakers played the Rockets last year in the
UH Bubble, they basically left Russell Westbrook alone outside to
shoot and it works, all right. You know, maybe they
can prove me wrong. Another team that I think is
gonna prove us wrong here. I didn't panic when the
Olympic team lost a couple of exhibition games and when
(22:44):
they lost to France and great. So they beat Iran
and they beat the Czech Republic and they made twenty
threes in the game against the Czech Republic. I still
think they're going to win the gold medal. And their
minus two fifty it's amazing because you could have gotten
the Olympic team and minus two hundred before the game
(23:05):
against Iran. At one point they were they were minus
the thousand, which means you had to put up a
dollar or check that you have to put up ten
dollars just to win one. Now they they've just gone
from two to one to minus two fifty. Pretty good
value on a team with future Hall of famers on it.
And so who do they play next, Well, it looks
like they're going to play either Italy or the loser
(23:27):
of Spain and Slovenia, and after that I would suspicion
to get by that. So I can I think you can.
You can probably put them in the semifinals right now,
but I'm not one confident. As you look at this team,
they're basically a group of individual stars and roles that
(23:48):
very much differ from their respective NBA teams. All right,
So up until the last couple of games, and still
a little bit. They kind of take turns going long
stretches without touches of the ball, so they to really
get into the rhythm, and because there are a bunch
of individuals trying to gel uh, you know, it's like
my turn, this this trip down, your turn, next trip down.
(24:10):
And I don't think anybody fears the United States anymore.
They can't win on reputation. The intimidation factor in the
past was probably worth fifteen points a game, but when
you saw them lose to France, France was a legit
team with an established offensive pecking order. I really didn't
see much of the Iranian game and saw just bits
and pieces of the Czech Republic game. The check team
(24:32):
hung in there, and I think it was just the
depth and stardom of the h U S team that
was able to pull away. So I do think. I
do think the US is still probably gonna win the Gold.
It make you a little bumpy here a couple of times,
but one of the things that concerns me greatly about
this team is they're still they're too reliant on the
(24:55):
three point shot. Even against the Czech Republic, you know,
might that a margin of victory had been a little misleading.
They made twenty threes and and I think in the
last I want to say the last four or five quarters,
five quarters, uh check that it might be the last
two and a half quarters. They made sixteen out of thirty.
(25:17):
So they're making their threes. But before they weren't making
their threees. You saw the nine straight miss shots in
that game against France. France had a fourteen run to
finish the game, and at that point then you know
the US was twelve and a half point favorite. There
there was no simplistic cancer and I think you you know,
it's pretty clear they hadn't played together on offense. And
(25:37):
I would just say this that in that style of play,
you could make a case they might not win the goal.
But I'm sticking to my guns that they're going to
win the gold. But what I would like to see
them do is use their extreme athleticism and elite world
class athleticism to take advantage of the world, which I
(25:58):
know they can do it each him they want. They've
got athletes, they can beat their man off the bounce anytime.
That way, you get more driving, kick, you get to
the rim, you draw contact, you get to the free
throw line, maybe get an an one stop settling for
for threes and why not in this international game. Beat
your guy off the bounce, get down, low driving kick,
(26:21):
establish a mid range game. And I think one of
the things that will seal it for the US is
that they'll start to play desperate on defense when they
need to encourunche time, and that's when you'll see their
athleticism and depth come through. No guarantees, but I'm still
predicting the USA to win the gold and you can
get very good value on them now. They're minus to
(26:43):
fifty coming up. I don't have the same kind of
optimism about the Raiders, and it's got some local people
here a little upset with me, and I'm going to explain,
and I think you'll agree with me when I get
done with my oratory. But first, if you had one shot,
one opportunity to see everything you ever wanted in an update,
would you better listen up. Let's go to Kevin Figures
(27:04):
with the ladies. I appreciate that, Bernie. We have the
final round of golf at the Olympics in Tokyo coming
down to the wire right now. Roy Sabatini of Slovakia
is in the clubhouse. He's tied for the lead with
San Diego native Xanders Shafley, who bogie at fourteen and
made par at fifteen Deci matsu Yama, of course, representing
the host country Japan, has bogie two of the last
(27:24):
three holes. He has two strokes back with three remaining.
Caleb Dressel became the fourth swimmer to win five gold
medals in a single Olympics after taking the fifty meter
freestyle and the four by one hundred metley. Jymnasimone Biles
will not compete in the individual floor exercise and her
status for the balance beam is unknown. In the NFL,
the Browns and running back Nick Chubb I have agreed
(27:45):
to a three year contract extension. The Saint signed running
back DeVante Freeman to a one year deal. In hardball, however,
your bias hitting his first home run of the out
of the season, but his first home run as a met,
I should say in a tend any victory over the Reds.
Dodgers over Arizona eight to three, as Justin Turner went
deep there Anthony Rizzo. Yet they know the home run
for the Yankees as they defeated at Miami five of
(28:06):
his last six games. Anthony Rizzo has gone deep wins
for the Angels, Braves, and Giants, Tampa Bay defeating Boston,
taking a half game lead in the American League East
back to straight out of Vegas. Thanks so much, Kevin,
appreciate that Discover matches all the cash back you earn
on your credit card at the end of your first year.
It's amazing because discovers accepted it. The places in the
(28:28):
US to take credit cards. Learn more Discover dot com
slash Yes Nielson Report limitations apply. All right. They did
a couple of local radio shows this week. As you know,
it's been in all the papers. The Raiders are now
in Vegas beautiful new stadium, Allegian Field. This would be
the first year they get to play in front of fans.
They open up at home against the Baltimore Ravens. They
(28:51):
opened up as a six point underdog. They're currently a
four or four and a half point underdog, depending on
where you shop. And Baltimore Ravens quarterback uh lamarch Xidon
has tested positive for COVID, but I'm sure he'll be
fine by opening uh by opening day. So the Raiders
inter this season with high hopes, uh, although I would
(29:14):
say the hopes are a lot because Raider Nation is
such an incredibly dedicated, loyal, emotionally invested fan base, perhaps
the greatest in all the sports. The team's relocated three
or four times, they follow morever they go. They've got
fans all around the world they're in. It's an incredible,
incredible fan base. But that doesn't mean that the Raiders
(29:36):
are gonna win on the field because they have such
a great fan base, even though some folks would like
it to be that way. Last year, they started out
six and three, They even beat Cleveland, they beat Kansas City,
they beat New Orleans. They looked impressive. Unfortunately, they were
two and five down the stretch, which created it. I
think a lot of challenging questions heading into this season,
which is why the Raiders currently their season win over
(29:59):
under tow lit All is seven and a half and
the pros I talked to and the people I know
are betting the under, which I think has Raider Nation
fans a bit up in arms. But there's a lot
of questions. First of all, what changes will new defensive
coordinator Gus Bradley bring to the Raiders defense. The Raiders
(30:21):
five ranked defense. I might mention were the early projections
and sorting out the Raiders defensive secondary. How all the
Raiders revamped offensive line shake out this coming year. The
Raiders UH added John Brown a wide receiver, and they
moved Nelson Agilare along, So did that mean they get
(30:43):
an upgrade? One of the other things I think that's
got to be very challenging for any Raider fan, if
we're being honest with ourselves, is the Raiders have the
eighth toughest strength of schedule in the National Football League.
This year they played teams with the cumulative five thirty
winning percentage, and not for nothing, the Raiders play seven
(31:06):
playoff teams. They have to go to Indianapolis, which, now
if they don't have Carson Wentz might look a whole
lot different. But still, anytime you going to the road
and the National Football League its gauntlet, but you go
to Indy, you go to Cleveland. They traveled to the
New York Giants, who I think would be improved. They
get Pittsburgh UH on the road, and then they've got
(31:29):
to go to Dallas as well. I think around Thanksgiving UH,
and then of course you know you've got Kansas City
in Denver, those are not going to be any picnics either.
People asked me what I thought the toughest stretch of
the Raider schedule is, because they have a couple of
tough stretches later in the year. But for me, and
having covered the NFL and the Detroit Lions for ten years,
(31:53):
just about seeing it all, uh pre postgame show. The
first year I did was burious enters last year and
the last year was two thousand eight. Rod Marinelli's infamous
only sixteen Lions team. Yes, I covered that team, by
the way, not for nothing, uh. Rod Marinelli is also
a defensive coach for the aforementioned Las Vegas Raiders. A
(32:17):
lot of meat on the bone here with the Raiders.
And if if you're scoring at home, and I hope
you are, they're eighty two one to win the Super
Bowl and their plus three forty to make the playoffs,
which means there's probably about a seventy percent chance chance
according to those numbers, they don't make the playoffs. So
back to the toughest stretch in terms of what do
I think in terms of their toughest stretch right out
(32:40):
of the gate, Because the Raiders in their first two
games and in their first four games. They cannot afford
to be one in three and climb up hill the
rest of the way. They simply can't afford that. Week one,
you've got Baltimore. You know Baltimore will come in loaded
for bear and they've done nothing except improve. You tell me,
(33:01):
do the Raiders have the talent on defense to keep
the likes of Lamar Jackson and J. K. Dobbins and
Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown and Sammy Watkins and Rashod Bateman?
Can you keep them all in check? Now? I think
scoring points uh won't be an issue for the Raiders.
(33:22):
And I think offensively the Raiders should be very respectable,
So that side of the ball will be the Raiders
saving grace, as it were. But the defensive side of
the ball is going to continue to be an issue
for John Gruden. And if I'm a betting man, I'm
not laying the four six points all but I will
(33:45):
say this, I don't I can't see Baltimore coming in
here week one and dropping Anything can happen to National
Football League. But I don't think Baltimore loses that game
Week one. Now, you gotta go to Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is
gonna be an interesting match for the Raiders because the
Raiders have a completely rebuilt offensive line and Pittsburgh the
(34:06):
Estate lost Bud Dupree, but they added Melvin Ingram, who's
a fabulous hedge rusher, and you boocamed him with t. J.
Watt and you've got two outstanding edge rushers. Match that
with the rebuilt offensive line this offseason for the Raiders,
and this projects to be perhaps a tough game for
Derek Carr because Pittsburgh's defensive line is more than capable
(34:29):
of creating constant pressure and essentially maybe living in the backfield.
So this is going to be a close game, I'm
sure of it. But the long and the short of
it is is can they go to Pittsburgh with a
superior defensive line who's going to pressure Derek Carr and
get a win on the road, Then it gets interesting
(34:50):
and and and by the way, I'm going to repeat
myself again, the Raiders defense has been there, Achilles heal
because they are overall in and order for them to
be a serious contender or have an opportunity to make
a run of Kansas City or be a wild card
playoff team. They've got to be a top defense. If
they can, this team has a chance to go places.
(35:12):
That said though, or that is easier said than done.
Then the Raiders host Miami. You saw what happened with
Miami here last year. The good news is Miami no
longer has fifth Magic, But I think Brian Flores has
a going down there. I think Miami is a playoff
team this year. Pittsburgh's a playoff team last year. Baltimore
was a playoff team last year. Not an easy start
(35:33):
to the season. And then Week four I said I
thought the first four weeks would be a serious challenge. Well,
Week four the Raiders go to Los Angeles to play
the Chargers and Justin Herbert for their first division game
on the road on Monday Night football in Week four.
So there you have it. The Raiders are going to
(35:54):
have their work cut off for him and getting out
of the gate, they cannot go worse than two and
two an expect to be anywhere near that run in
the playoffs, as well as maybe even making a run
to get in that eighth victory to go over their
season ten win total. Now, I will say this thing,
one last thing. The Raiders. Actually, this season sort of
(36:16):
reminds me of two thousand sixteen when no one thought
they would do anything and their season total was seven.
They end up going twelve and four, and it's a
shame Derek car Broker's leg before the playoff game against
Houston because there's no telling. So you're seeing a market
line now. The market is speaking. They don't trust the Raiders.
Their skeptical. Too many questions, a tough schedule, ranked defense,
(36:38):
The markets are skeptical. Although I will also say this,
the NFL is always more interesting. It's like the Yankees
in baseball, the Celtics and Lakers and basketball. When the
Raiders are good, it's good for the NFL coming up.
You know, if you love him and you can't lay
without him, Mac and Own Sports from Mackenzie Rivers. He
will join us. I'm Bernie rat, a comedy live from
(37:01):
the Las Vegas Fox Sports Radio students. This is a
three game show you always wanted. Don't go away. You're
listening to straight at a base My name is this
our Shire? My linebacker for the San Francisco FORDA not
us COVID hit so many different people from the very
top to the very bottom. There's nobody not being affected
by COVID in some way, shape or form, and so
(37:22):
I think that that brought a lot of people together.
I've teamed up with cow Hope to let Californians know
about the resources and support available to all of you
that may be dealing with mental health issues. Go to
cal Hope dot org to chat with a live person,
or call their warmline at one eight three three three
one seven hope. That's eight three three one seven h
O P. What grows in the forest trees? Sure you
(37:46):
know what else grows in the forest. Our imagination, our
sense of wonder, and our family bonds grow too, because
when we disconnect from this and connect with this, we
reconnect with each other. The forest is closer than you think.
Find a forest near you and start exploring. I discover
(38:06):
the fourth dot Org, brought to you by the United
States Forth Service and the AD Council. Back on Straight
out of Vegas, the pregame show you always wanted. I'm
Bernie Freddo Comedy Alive from the Las Vegas Fox Sports
Radio Studios. Before I go any further, I want to
thank my broadcast team back in Los Angeles, turning all
the dials keeping us glued together. That would be Bowl, Benson,
(38:27):
Christ Perfett and Kevin Figures and they will be joining
me right through to three AM as well. So keep
it locked right here. At first, let's go to the man. Well,
you know him, you love me, can't lee without him.
It's that time of the week, Mac and I'm sports
with our own Mackenzie rivers Mackenzie. Now it's time to
match the NFL power ratings with when the season starts
(38:49):
and the rubber hits the road. What do you got, Yes,
it's that time of year. We turned the page to
the NFL. By the way, it's power rating Sea and
it's never too early. It might seem like, hey, these teams,
these teams aren't finalized. You might have heard the Packers
added a potential Hall of Fame receiver and Randall cob
(39:11):
I mean, what an acquisition that was. But well, what
we do in Vegas is we project the unexpected, We
project improbabilities. So the fact that we know how these
teams are doing right now, we project how they're going
to do in the future. Who do you think is
the best team in the NFL right now here? On
(39:31):
July thirte August one. Well, I know it's gonna be
power rated the Chiefs. How can it not be? But
tamp Tampa Bay in the Chiefs. You're right there. That's
my key, that's my statement. It's funny. You know, people
do college power ratings and there's four hundred teams and
everyone's within a half a point or a point with
it within each other. The same with the NFL. There's
thirty two teams all the analysis. Most people will get
(39:52):
pretty close, and you're right, the Chiefs or the Bucks
are going to be the one too of everybody's list.
For me, it is the Tampa Bay Bucks. I them
seven points better than the average team, the Chiefs a
notch below plus six and a half. We saw them
scrambled it with their offensive line. They added new pieces,
Kyle Long off the bench of retirement. I'm not sure
(40:13):
if it's all going to come back together. We talked
about them last week. Will they have the continuity to
make up for their age, you know, being got more
expensive older team. Speaking of which game of the decade,
potentially we just saw a game of the millennium. I
mean Tom Brady versus Met Mahomes will define who was
the quarterback of the millennium. By the way, it was
Tom Brady won seven Super Bowls. Ma Homes will never
(40:35):
catch him. So yeah, Brady millennium quarterback. But the two
thousand twenties, Brady might retire maybe, so the two thousand
twenties will be Aaron Rodgers versus Patrick Mahomes. So I'm
gonna calling Week nine game of the decade Packers at Chiefs.
Let's guess the line, Bernie, what do you think? Alright?
So if these two teams lined up on a neutral,
(40:57):
I'd probably make the Chiefs three. So I'm gonna all
it's six and a half. Wow, that's exactly the number
I wrote down on my little spreadsheet here, and it
says delta three, which is a rare delta because it
is only three and a half. The Packers plus three
and a half at Chiefs right now at the Westgate
(41:18):
Week nine. Westgate went ahead and made all seventeen weeks
this year. They had their wheaties this summer, so congrats
to them. That's an awesome thing to see. We can
compare all these teams throughout the year. But yeah, wow,
I wrote down six and a half. You think the
Chiefs are at least the field goal better than the post. Remember. Remember,
(41:38):
and for the folks who listen to the show, we
always want to remind people the line is not a predictor.
It's not a situation where I'm predicting that the Chiefs
will win that game by seven. What I am saying is,
you put the Chiefs six six and a half, You're
still gonna get Kansas City money. The books, the books
are just trying to create equal action on both sides. Yeah,
we remember the final four to the Packers, Bucks, Chiefs, Bills.
(42:03):
Those four teams seem pretty even the fact that the
Packers went out changed our perception a little bit. Let's
go to the other end of the spectrum, your end
of the woods. The Houston Texans are the worst team.
But you're Detroit Lions, I'm sorry to say, are power
rated at the second or it's almost everybody's list and speaking.
You know, we're here at the pregame studios. R J.
(42:26):
Bell's Pittsburgh Steelers are hosting you guys Week ten. What
do you think the line is? Detroit Lions Pittsburgh Steelers.
You know, it's just like playing Russian roulette when you
project the line ten weeks out and not knowing who's
gonna be healthy. And I don't know if you heard me.
With Arnie and Aaron, Pittsburgh starting five new offensive lion
(42:46):
starters playing there a new position for the first time
in their career. You get thirty nine year old Ben Roethlisberger,
who's got something to prove, but he's had more surgeries,
and Joan Rivers. I'm getting pretty good reports out of
Detroit that this team is gonna play hard to be
compared off. Still, having said all that, I make Pittsburgh
seven seven and a half. You're right, all you are
(43:06):
one of the voices of Vegas. Speaking of the voices
of Vegas. You talk about Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line the
day that de Castro was announced out. You know, he's
been dealing with that injury, has been trying to come back.
He's one of the veterans. He's probably the veteran lineman
coming back for the Pittsburgh Steelers. He was before he
had to retire or at least temporarily step aside. We
(43:30):
said it right here. Eight and a half wins Pittsburgh Steelers,
that's too much. You know, they've never had a losing season.
It might be better than fifty fifty that Mike Tomlin
will have the first time in his I think seventeen
year career, his first losing season. Because the Vegas market
has been plummeting. It's eight and it was eight and
a half flat. They're expected to win between eight and
(43:50):
nine games out of seventeen. Now it's closer to eight
eight and a quarter. Maybe you could call it. A
lot of betters in Vegas agreeing with r J what
we said on Vegas that day on straight out of Vegas,
Pittsburgh Steelers pessimism in the marketplace. Well, the pessimism, uh,
you know, it's relative either going to compete, all right,
they still got it in their DNA. They're they're not
(44:12):
gonna go off a cliff. So I think Pittsburgh will
be there. Well, we'll we'll be over five us put
it that way. We talked about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
My other Super Bowl team, the Buffalo Bills, will be
visiting the Saints. This was another Delta three on my spreadsheet.
What do you think the line is Game of the year.
Maybe Buffalo Bills at the New Orleans Saints Week twelve.
(44:33):
There's no doubt in my mind that the Bills are
going to be a short favorite. I'll I'll say it's
Buffalo minus two right on that It's exactly correct. I
had the Saints minus one. I was thinking, you know,
more respect to that new Arlans crowd. But Josh Allen
of m VP candidate maybe second m v P favorite
behind Patrick Mahomes. Alright, good stuff, mackenzie were McKenzie is
(44:58):
gonna be with us all night till three am. And
as we get to our final segment of Every Hour,
because you will have more good stuff like this and
we'll chop it up, go back and forth. That is
going to do it for this night's edition. Up straight
out of Vegas. Next up the man from Nashville. Now
he's off Bernie Fratto Inn keep it locked ray here
on Fox Sports Radio. Now, more than ever, being a
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