Football Over Baseball

Episode Transcript
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not available in all areas. Were two days from the
Divisional round playoffs in the NFL, and we have got
an in credibly interesting story developing surrounding Kyler Murray and
whether or not he should go to the NFL or

(01:09):
report to the Oakland A's as part of his being
drafted by the Major League Baseball team UM he made
over four million dollars from the Oakland A's and now
he's got the potential. Maybe we'll see and what is
otherwise a pretty weak UH NFL draft class to announce

(01:29):
for the NFL Draft and see where he might stack
up there. Report from the San Francisco Chronicle citing multiple
sources saying the Oakland A's now expect Kyler Murray to
declare for the NFL Draft. Now this is important because
he was the number nine overall pick in the Major
League Baseball draft, and again I believe he had over

(01:51):
four million dollars guaranteed. He's already signed with the Oakland A's,
but if he decided to put his name into the
NFL draft, he could not report for UH for their
early season training and workout and spring training and everything
else that's a that a rookie draft pick would be

(02:13):
expected to report for. And instead, and by the way,
that is in February, instead, could decide to clear for
the NFL Draft and attend the NFL combine and see
where he would rank among the available quarterbacks. This is
an intriguing, fascinating decision because, on the one hand, I

(02:34):
think there's a lot of people out there who hear
this story and they think, Okay, well you have greater
longevity in baseball. But if you think about the dollars
that you can make at the quarterback position, that's not
necessarily true. And we kind of run through this decision
before as we talked about it in in general detail,

(02:55):
and the guys can hop in and give me these
exact uh evidence of what exactly happens. But if you're
a first round pick in major league baseball, I think
you have about a fifty fifty chance of lasting for
three or more years eventually as a major league baseball player.
I think that's what the data would reflect. Dub you

(03:17):
found this stuff before, If you could look that up
for me and let me know exactly what that data was.
I remember we talked about it before on the show.
It's not as cut and dry as you would anticipate,
because if you get drafted in the first round, especially
at the quarterback position, you get a four year guaranteed
contract and you also then get a fifth year option

(03:42):
which could pay you infinitely more. For instance, Jamis Winston
and Marcus Mariota are both having their fifth year options
picked up. They were the number one and number two
overall picks in the draft four years ago, and as
a result, we're talking about, um, we're talking about a

(04:03):
substantial impact to the overall UH you know, career choice
that you make, because you're talking about making forty million
dollars in general guaranteed in a way that it's hard
to question. And people out there say, oh, well, you
have a longer career in Major League Baseball, or you
have a longer career in the UH in in in

(04:27):
in the NFL, and you have the injury risk and
everything else. I don't think it's actually true. I actually,
when I look at the data, believe that Kyler Murray,
if he's making a choice between NFL or IN or
Major League Baseball because of the position that he plays,

(04:48):
I think he should go pro in the NFL. I
know the risk factor, in the injury factor, in the
bust factor with all of quarterbacks. But if you think
you can be a first un draft pick in the NFL,
I think you'd go for it. And I don't understand
why Kyler Murray would not put his name into the
NFL draft and just see where he gets drafted. Now,

(05:11):
if you're an NFL team, you might well think, hey,
I don't want to commit a first round pick to
Kyler Murray because I don't believe necessarily that he's gonna
guarantee play football. And if he's not gonna play football,
that's a big risk to figure out whether or not
he should actually be in the NFL draft. Right. So

(05:32):
that's kind of the situation that Bo Jackson had when
the Raiders took him several years ago, was they took
a flyer on him, but they didn't take him in
the first round. In fact, that's another good question. Who
was the last player in the NFL draft to be
taken in the first round who didn't actually play in
the NFL at all? I I just I don't even

(05:55):
remember that ever happening in recent history. So I think
that's the risk factor. There's actually more risk for the
drafting team than there is for anybody else. And we
add a little bit of a spice to this story
because I believe we have um the audio of Cliff

(06:16):
Kingsbury back in October talking about how good Kyler Murray
is and saying he would take him number one overall
in the in the NFL draft. Now, this is interesting
because of course the Arizona Cardinals now have the number
one overall pick in the NFL Draft. The other challenge here, though,
that's different than what when Cliff Kingsbury was hypothetically talking

(06:39):
about how good Kyler Murray is. The thing that's major
ly different now is he's now the head coach of
the Cardinals, who have already taken a first round pick
in Josh Rosen. So I think the odds of this
happening are virtually zero. But nevertheless, here is Kingsbury back
in uh back in October, talking about either or not

(07:00):
he would make that decision if he were in the NFL.
Kyler is, I mean, he's a freak man. Party is
a really good young player, and he's going to be
a tremendous player. But Kyler as a freak And I've
followed him since he was a sophomore um in high school,
and um just think the world of him and what
he can do on a football field. And I've never
seen one better in high school and he's starting to

(07:22):
show it now at the college level. And I mean,
I don't have enough good things to say about him.
He's phenomenal. I've never seen him have a poor outing,
not one which at quarterbacks. It's impossible to do, but
he's done it. And uh, I want I take him
with the first figure of the draft if I could.
I know he's signed up to play baseball, but he
is a dominant football player, and um I would, I
would take him with the first pick. That in and

(07:45):
of itself is intriguing. And remember that he's been in
Texas for a long time, which is where Kyler Murray
played high school football. So Cliff Kingsbury recruited Kyler Murray
for Texas A and M and I'm sure also for
Texas Tech. And when he says I started watching play
as a sophomore, remember that Kyler Murray initially signed with

(08:06):
Texas A and M and then made the decision to
transfer to Oklahoma, which raises a larger question. Has anybody
ever gotten to better transfers at the quarterback position in
modern football history than Oklahoma getting Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray,
both of whom initially did not sign with them. But

(08:26):
this I'm gonna put up this is our poll question
today because I'm curious what you guys would would say
when you break down this decision if you were advising
Kyler Murray, would you tell him to go pro in
the NFL or would you tell him to go pro
in Major league baseball? And why would you make the
argument that you would? And here are the data, by

(08:49):
the way, because I do think the data of first
round draft picks in the NFL matter. Um, when you
have been drafted at in the first round in the
Major League base Ball draft, what percentage played in the
major leagues? It's an interesting question, uh, over the last
long period of time. These are hundreds of players that

(09:10):
have been drafted, UM played in the major leagues. Two
thirds two thirds of first round draft picks in the
Major league Baseball draft who were first rounders eventually played
in the major leagues. How many played in the major
leagues for three plus years less than half. So this

(09:33):
is actually pretty intriguing, right, because when you get drafted
uh in major league baseball, you have to work your
way up through the minor leagues for multiple years before
you actually get to the major leagues. Now, first rounders
have an advantage because the team is going to favor
them in some way because they've already invested substantial dollars
in them, such that two thirds make the major leagues,

(09:56):
but less than half play Major league baseball are over
three years. Well, if you're drafted in the first round
of the NFL Draft, you get a guaranteed four year contract.
So I think this is a no brainer to me.
Kyler Murray should put his name into the NFL draft,

(10:16):
should see where he's drafted. Now, the challenges going to
be I believe convincing NFL teams that you are worthy
of a first round pick, because there's no way anybody
wants to draft Kyler Murray in the first round if
they think he might decide not to play NFL football,
because then you've wasted completely a first round draft picks.

(10:39):
I'm gonna open up the phone lines here. I'll also
pull the crew. This is again uh news that came
out last night the San Francisco Chronicle reporting that Kyler
Murray will be entering his name into the NFL draft,
according to sources with the Oakland A's I believe the
NFL draft deadline is Sunday. I've believe that is the

(11:00):
date when you have to put your name in officially
to be drafted. If that is the case, could Kyler
Murray turn away from that four million dollar baseball contract
and decided to go to the NFL. I would argue
that's actually the smart financial decision. If you are a
great NFL quarterback, you can make hundreds of millions of dollars.

(11:23):
It's much more difficult to find really good NFL quarterbacks
than it is smaller sized infielders in Major League Baseball.
So I would advise Kyler Murray to go pro in
the NFL UH draft. What would you advise him? Eight
seven seven nine six three six nine. I am Clay Travis.

(11:43):
Appreciate you starting your Thursday morning with me. We've got
a loaded show for you. By the way, Mark Schlareth
will join us an hour too to break down the
divisional round to NFL playoff games in um Our three.
Will be joined by my guy, Todd Furman from Walk
it In. Will talk gambling on the NFL playoff games

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and what the smart decisions are to make going forward there.
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(13:34):
back reactions to the decision potentially of Kyler Murray to
declare for the NFL Draft. This is Outkicked the Coverage
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
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(14:38):
or used car. Visit True Car to enjoy a more
confident car buying experience this confident show. And I'm confident
in saying that I think Kyler Murray should put his
name into the NFL draft and see where he goes,
and then potentially that the NFL would offer him a
better pathway to success than Major League Baseball would. And

(14:58):
this is one of those rare times where I put
up a poll question and I check it out and
I actually think, you know what, you guys are missing
the boat in the early votes that are out there
on the poll question on Twitter. You can search me
out at Clay Travis. Would you advise Kyler Murray to
go pro in Major League Baseball or the NFL. I

(15:19):
put this up at the start of our commercial break.
A thousand of you have already voted, and seventy percent
of you are saying he should go pro in Major
League Baseball. And in theory, I understand that argument, but
I just ran through the data for you, which I
think proves that if Kyler Murray were a first round

(15:40):
pick in the NFL, it would be smarter to go
to the NFL. The other thing is you could always
go back to baseball. I don't think you could go
to baseball and decide to come back to the NFL
at the quarterback position in the same way. Now, a
lot of people also probably wondering where does this guy
fit in the overall NFL pantheon of quarterbacks, and I

(16:04):
think that's always interesting to think about where he would project.
To me, he is a smaller version of Russell Wilson.
I mean, almost identical to a lot of the things
that Russell Wilson can do. He's got a really big arm.
He's more athletic, I think than Russell Wilson, is faster,
but he's smaller. I don't really think that Lamar Jackson

(16:25):
analogy makes sense because I think he's a more accurate
pastor than Lamar Jackson, and I think he's got a
bigger arm. I also think that they're equal maybe in
the shiftiness component. UM, but I think the analogy if
you are an NFL team and you're thinking about drafting
Kyler Murray, I think the player you would plug him in,

(16:45):
and Russell Wilson also plays baseball, UH, the player you
would plug him in to reflect is Russell Wilson. And
Russell Wilson has obviously been an incredible player for years
with the UH. With the Seattle Seahawks now, Russell Wilson
was not a first round pick, primarily because of his size.
There was concerned that he wasn't big enough to succeed

(17:07):
in the NFL. I I think one it would matter
where Kyler Murray measures. I think this is one of
those things where it matters a great deal what height
Kyler Murray actually shows up and puts forward. Is he
gonna be in that five eleven six foot range. Remember
there's a lot of talk about Baker Mayfield and whether
he was gonna be over six ft tall or not,

(17:28):
and that was that was a substantial factor. Or is
gonna be like five ten or five eleven, because frankly,
there just aren't that many guys of that height. Now.
Russell Wilson again is under six ft tall, but the
reason why he went in the third round was because
of his height. So I think this this decision making
shifts in a major way based on whether or not

(17:49):
somebody you'll take Kyler Murray in the first round. If
you told me right now, would you rather have Lamar Jackson,
who went as the last overall pick. I believe, in
the first round, or Kyler Murray. I was more impressed
by Kyler Murray in terms of his ability to throw
a perfect ball than I was by Lamar Jackson, which

(18:10):
is why I'm saying, the analogy I would draw as
to who Kyler Murray reminds me of is much more
of a Russell Wilson than it is of a Lamar Jackson.
Not to say Lamar Jackson can't down the road become
a good quarterback. I'm just skeptical that he's ever gonna
be good from the from the pocket, I think Lamar Jackson,
to me, having watched that entire Chargers game and a

(18:32):
lot of his games this year, Lamar Jackson is a
flash in the running pan, much like we have seen
before with Tim Tebow, with r G three, with Vince Young.
These guys come in and they're really good in their
first year, and then eventually the NFL diagnoses what they
can't do well and forces them to make place from

(18:54):
the pocket, and they can't do it. And I thought
that's what the Chargers did against Lamar Jackson once we
actually he got into the playoffs. The very end of
that Browns game second half, they figured out what Lamar
Jackson couldn't do, and then the Chargers followed that game plan.
And I think next year will be really difficult for
Lamar Jackson in terms of being consistent. Maybe I'm wrong.

(19:16):
Maybe he's gonna develop in a way that Tim Tebow,
Vince Young and r G three didn't, and maybe he's
gonna demonstrate that he's something more than just a runner.
But I think Kyler Murray to me, projects a lot
more towards Russell Wilson than he does to Lamar Jackson.
So that leads us with the question, would you take Lamar?
Would you take Kyler Murray in the first round? Because

(19:39):
I think the only way he chooses to go pro
in the NFL over Major League Baseball is if he's
a first round pick and he gets that kind of
guaranteed money. So eight seven, seven, six three six nine,
Danny G you're on the clock, You're in the first round,

(20:00):
own you need a quarterback. Are you considering drafting Kyler Murray?
This is a tough one because I think he's more
likely to be a second round selection. So maybe if
you had a pick at the end of the first
round and you needed a really good, solid backup or
a guy that could learn behind your starter for the moment,

(20:21):
then I would pick him. So see, I think the
risk and then it's a good and good good analysis there.
I think the risk is that he might not go
to the NFL at all. So I think that's the
challenge that NFL teams are gonna have to weigh here
is if we're going to spend a first round pick
on a guy, you have to know that that guy

(20:43):
is gonna come and show up and be on your team.
You can't take a first round pick and have him
not show up. The value of a first round pick
is too high. Yeah, and I was looking here. The
last player who went both NFL and baseball was Brian
George and who played safety for I think it was
the Falcons, right, And that's the last guy that long

(21:06):
it has been, I believe, And obviously he played baseball
for the Braves and the Cardinals. Russell Wilson was drafted right,
but it was more of a gimmick thing during the
UH spring training right for the Yankees. I don't think
he was a very high round pick. I mean, I
think that's the difference is when you're when you feel
like you potentially have first round talent in both UH

(21:27):
in both baseball and in football. And obviously Drew what
was the court Drew Henson. Yes, he was insanely high
pick in in both places and ended up just kind
of muddling around and never being that good in either. Well,
let me ask you this, do you think that Kyler
Murray could be like a Teddy Bridgewater type player in
the NFL where he's a really good backup, which would

(21:49):
also not interfere with him still playing baseball because he
is a special talent. If anybody could play both sports,
I think he could pull it off. Yeah. I think
the challenge with playing the with both sports. I mean,
Brian Jordans obviously did it. Uh Dion Sanders did it
back in the day, and famously Bo Jackson did it
back in the day. As we've seen so much specialization

(22:13):
in the last twenty years since those guys did it
that it would be almost impossible to play both Now.
I think that uh, Kyler Murray could get drafted in
the first round, play but football for four years, realized
that he didn't have what it took if that were
the case, to play in the NFL, not get his
option picked up in the fifth year, and still go

(22:35):
back to baseball and feel like he had a chance
to potentially get drafted there. I mean, look, Tim Tebow
is probably, assuming he can stay healthy, probably going to
play major League baseball this year, and he didn't go
back to play baseball, and he didn't play at all
in in college. He hadn't played since high school and

(22:55):
he's gonna go to the major leagues now. Tebow is
a different caliber athlete, but he didn't got are playing
baseball until what twenty eight or twenty nine years old.
So if Kyler Murray decided to go back to baseball
at twenty four or twenty five, I still think he
would have the potential if he's that good, to end
up as a baseball player, even if he didn't work
out as an NFL player. Let me bring up Eddie Garcia.

(23:17):
We're about to get an update for you. But first, Eddie,
if you were advising Kyler Murray, what would you advise
him to do Major League baseball versus NFL. Well, I
would definitely advise him to find out what exactly NFL
teams think about him and declare for the NFL draft
and and see what the feedback is and ultimately where

(23:38):
he's drafted. I mean, it's about options, right having making
the best They're having the best options available before you
make a decision. So if he has a better option
in football, then in baseball, then he needs to he
Here's here's what I would say about that. It can't
be to see what his options are. If you want
to play football, you need to come out and say,

(24:00):
I'm a hundred percent committed to playing football next year.
I will play. Uh if I am drafted in the
first round, you know, just be as straightforward and honest
as you possibly can be, because if you're like, oh,
I just want to see where I'm gonna be drafted,
then that's gonna knock down your draft stocks substantially, which
would lead you to make the decision to go into

(24:21):
Major League Baseball, where you already know you've been a
first round pick. And so I think if he's deciding
to go into the draft in the NFL, he has
to come out directly and say, not only publicly, but
also to all the teams that are contemplating him, I
will go play for you in the NFL. I want
to be an NFL quarterback. It's my dream. And if

(24:43):
you draft me in the first round, I will be there.
Because no GM is gonna risk his job on taking
Kyler Murray in the first round and then see Kyler
Murray say, ah, you know what I've decided to play
baseball instead. That's how you get fired if you're a GM.
If that happens, I'll open up the phone lines and
in eight seven, seven, nine, six, three six nine, Eddie

(25:04):
rco what you got for me? Well, we start with
NFL news, and three coaching vacancies have been filled. The
New York Jets are totally gonna hire recently fired Miami
Dolphins head coach Adam Gaze as their next head coach.
He had a twenty three and twenty five record in
three seasons at Miami, made the playoffs once, did not
win a playoff game, and apparently this means that recently
fired Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy will not

(25:24):
be a head coach next season, as he had only
been pursuing the Jets job. At least according to McCarthy.
Denver Broncos reportably gonna hire Chicago Bears defensive coordinator Vic
Fangio as their next head coach. He's never been a
head coach before. He has been an assistant in the
NFL for thirty three years. Gary Kubiak is gonna be
the team's offensive coordinator. Coming out of the front office
and the Cleveland Browns are promoting offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens

(25:45):
to be their next head coach. He has no previous
head coaching experience. He was promoted offensive coordinator earlier in
the year when Hugh Jackson was fired. Interim head coach
and defensive coordinator Greg Williams was let go by the Browns.
A couple of quick games of note in the NBA
Bucks over the Rockets one sixteen to one on Jandakoupo
twenty seven points and twenty one rebounds from Milwaukee. James
Harden had forty two points in the loss for Houston

(26:06):
Celtics over the Pacers one thirty five to one oh eight.
Wizards beat the Sixers oh six, and the trail Plazers
beat the Bulls to one twelve. This report brought to
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(26:27):
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to Clay Travis and the Geico out the Coverage studios. Indeed,

(26:47):
we are here in the Geico Outkicks studios where we've
got the pole question that is up in thousands of
you rolling in and again, I think that there's a
lot of laziness in terms of the analysis here because
seventy nine or cent of people are saying I'd advise
him to go play Major league baseball. But I think
Kyler Murray, when you consider his individual circumstances, may have
a better chance to make big money and play at

(27:10):
a high level in the NFL than he would in
Major League Baseball. Again, first round draft picks, and Kyler
Murray went number nine overall in the Major League Baseball draft.
First round draft picks in Major league Baseball have a
sixty six percent chance of actually making it to the
major leagues, So there's at least a one in three
chance that Kyler Murray would never play major league baseball.

(27:32):
On top of that, historically, only half less than half
forty six percent of all first round draft picks in
Major league baseball ever play for three years or longer.
If you are a first round pick in the NFL,
you are guaranteed four years of money, So arguably a

(27:52):
first round draft pick in the NFL has a better
career than a first round pick does in major league baseball. Also,
when you consider that you are playing the quarterback position,
the odds of a serious injury diminish appreciably and you
have a good chance if you get signed that four

(28:13):
year guaranteed deal, to also get your fifth year picked up,
which could mean that you would make around fifty million
dollars in your first five years playing UH NFL football,
which is more than you would make theoretically in your
first five years playing Major league baseball. Now, if you

(28:34):
end up being one of the best players in the
history of your draft class, then you could maybe make
more money in the UH in Major league baseball. But
I think if I'm sitting around making an offer to
Kyler Murray, the play is one hundred percent to go
into the NFL draft and try to be a first

(28:55):
round draft pick at the quarterback position, particularly because this
is a relatively weak NFL draft quarterback class. You've got
Dwayne Haskins, You've got Drew lock, You've got the guy
from Duke, You've got Will Greer. I'm not sure that
any of those guys are going to set the world
on fire when it comes to people taking chances with

(29:19):
with being high draft picks with them. We've got a
couple of calls I'm gonna hit here, But first, Dub,
what would you advise him to do? I mean, I'm
surprised by the poll results because it's to me, it's
not even it's a no brainer. I would go NFL
because if you look at that, the numbers make it.
If you break that down even more, he's a college
position player getting drafted. Less than sevent of those guys

(29:40):
in his categories, more specifically make the Major League Baseball.
So that's actually, that's actually a really good point. I'm
looking at the at that data right now, college position
players going in the first round. I should have broken
it down even more as opposed to just just that scenario.
Only what is it u of those players um end up?

(30:03):
What is it seventeen percent of those players play in
the major leagues. If you are a college position player
drafted into UH, that's wild. That that's pretty wild. Seventeen
percent of them UM end up playing in the major leagues,
and only thirteen percent of them play in the majors

(30:25):
for three plus years. So I don't know. I mean,
I just look at this in general and say, I
don't know necessarily that that's a that those are odds
that I would feel very good about UM in general. Now,
I do think, to be fair, the way to look
at this more accurately is played in the major leagues
and played in the major leagues for three plus years.

(30:46):
Even then, if you're just throwing out positions and everything else,
less than half of all first round picks end up
playing for three plus years in the major leagues, whereas
almost a hundred per cent of first rounders in the
NFL get four get four years guaranteed under their contracts,

(31:07):
and the team has a fifth year option. Now. So again,
Jamis Winston is a good example. He's the first guy
to go through and be picked up on this fifth
year option. He's gonna make nearly fifty million dollars for
playing NFL football for UH for four or five years now.
Jamis Winston also played baseball with the Florida State Seminoles.

(31:30):
I think the rules are different if you are in
the position of being a potential franchise quarterback. I think
it just changes things up in a substantial way. Let
me get a couple of your calls. Let me go
to Brandon in California. What's up, Brandon? Uh? Yeah, I'm
just curious of so where Scott Morris plays in all this.
Obviously he's a spaceball agent. If he signs up football contract,

(31:53):
is he getting any of that money because as far
as I understand, he has to pay back the money
less the taxes if he signs the NFL contract, Yeah,
you get all the money guaranteed. If you're a first
round draft pick in the NFL, you'd have to theoretically
pay back your your college UH draft pick money that
you got to play major league baseball. But I mean

(32:15):
that's what two and a half million dollars maybe you'd
have to put play payback. And if you're a high
draft pick in the NFL, you get guaranteed millions. So
he's if you're just looking at it from a pure
dollars and since perspective right now, if he were drafted
in the first round, he would end up with more money.
David in Houston, what's up, David? Hey, what's up? Play? Um? Well,

(32:38):
I mean I think you're here to run in the
spot man. You know, I think the NFL is going
to be the best thing for him to do. Uh,
you know, perfect example. I know you guys use James Linton.
I mean you've got Marcus Harriotta and Tennessee right now,
and being a private san I mean, if they pick
up a fifth year option, be guaranteed what one twenty
two now, you know, And I mean the Tennessee really

(33:02):
want to pay this guy that money? Or do they,
you know, want to take the chances on taking Okyler
Murray's kind of like the mar Jackson take for the
last take in the first round. You know, the question is,
like you said, is he going to play football? So
I mean that's gonna be the biggest question going into
the draft. Yeah. Look, I appreciate the call Jamis Winston

(33:25):
and Marcus Mariott to have both had their fifth year
options picked up, so both of them are going to
make in the neighborhood of forty five or fifty million
dollars in the first five years that they played in
the NFL, and if they are able to do well
in the year five, then they would make twenty million
plus per year going forward over the next five to

(33:46):
seven years. So you're talking about guys who could make
a hundred and fifty million dollars in the first ten
years that they play. And I think that's underrated because
I don't think people have recognized how high quarterbacks allaries
are becoming. If you can prove to yourself or prove
that you're a top twenty quarterback in the NFL, you're

(34:06):
gonna make well in excess of a hundred million dollars
in your career. I don't know if Kyler Murray could
prove that, but if he's the next Russell Wilson, he'd
be worth it. Eight seven, seven, three, six nine. Will
finish off our one. By the way an hour to
be joined by Mark Shlath. I'll ask him this question.
We'll also start to break down the NFL Divisional round
playoff games as we roll forward on the Thursday edition

(34:29):
about kick the Coverage. Thanks for spending your morning with us.
This is Fox Sports Radio. Welcome back. I go OutKick Studios,
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(34:52):
Learn more at discovered dot com. Slash credit scorecard limitations apply.
This is one of the first times I feel as
if the poll question answers are wrong. Um when you
break them down. Usually I kind of agree with the
wisdom of the masses by and large when I see

(35:13):
the overall outcome of our poll question. But five thousand
of you have voted in the first thirty minutes this
poll question has been up. You can go vote yourself
if you'd like. On Twitter, I'm at Clay Travis and
the question I put forward is simple, would you advise
Kyler Murray to go pro in Major League Baseball or
the NFL? And I think from the perspective of pure

(35:37):
financial decision that a lot of people are weighing NFL
versus Major League Baseball and thinking, oh, your body is
less likely to get hurt in Major League Baseball, you're
likely to have a longer career. But what they're not
factoring in is even if you're a first round pick
in Major League Baseball, it's really hard to have a

(35:58):
long career in major league baseball. Heck, it's even hard
to make it to major league baseball. Only two thirds
of all first round picks in the Major League Baseball
draft ever make it to major league baseball, So that
means there's around what ten guys out there who will
be drafted every year in the first round of Major

(36:20):
League Baseball and never make it to play a single
Major League Baseball game. On top of that, there is
also even if you make it to major league Baseball,
less than half of those Major League baseball players will
ever sign contracts getting them three or more years of

(36:41):
major league baseball salary. So, just looking at Kyler Murray
on a basic probability perspective, he's less than half likely
to sign a three plus year contract in Major league baseball,
Whereas if he were to go in the first round
of the NFL draft, he would get four years guaranteed

(37:03):
with a team option for a fifth year. I think
this is a no brainer from a financial perspective. If
he's drafted in the first round in the NFL, then
he has to go to the NFL if pure dollars
are his goal, because he would get a lot more
guaranteed money in the NFL than in Major League Baseball.

(37:25):
Maybe there's some financial analysts out there listening to us
right now who can run an analysis on this. But
in major League Baseball, you're getting four million guaranteed, with
no guarantee whatsoever that you will ever play major league baseball.
In fact, only two thirds of all of your fellow

(37:46):
first round draft picks historically you're likely to do that,
and less than half forty six percent are ever likely
to sign a three plus year contract. So to me,
the guaranteed money in the NFL, this is one of
those rare occasions when the NFL actually offers more financial
security than Major League Baseball. And I think the people

(38:09):
voting in our poll are not being very sophisticated in
their analysis of these two respective decisions that Kyler Murray
might have to make as it compares to Major League
Baseball versus the NFL. Alright, as we get ready for
our two, we're gonna bring in Mark Schlayreth. He will
join us and break down the NFL divisional round playoff games,

(38:30):
which is what will pivot to discuss at the top
of our two which games are you most excited to see?
How many upsets will we get given the fact that
in the NFL, in the last fifteen games, the underdog
has covered fourteen of them, which is just a wild number.
And the last fifteen NFL games, the underdog has covered

(38:52):
fourteen of them. That is utterly insane from a gambling perspective.
So we will talk about whether that is likely to
continue at the top of our two, also breakdown what
I think is the likelihood of each of the underdogs
pulling off the upset, and then we'll go to talk
to Mark Slayreth. I believe his son plays Major League
Baseball or was drafted. I know that his family he's

(39:13):
had some decisions to make about baseball versus football. We'll
see what he thinks about this Kyler Murray decision. And
then an hour three we'll talk with my guy Todd
Furman from the locket End television show that I do
on FS one every day at four thirty Eastern, three
thirty Central to thirty Mountain one thirty Pacific. All that
still to come. Encourage you to go download the podcast.

(39:35):
Be one of the cool kids. Millions of those of
you doing it across the entire country, and you can
continue to vote in our poll question which is up
on Twitter right now at Clay Travis there, would you
advise Kyler Murray to go pro in Major League Baseball
or the NFL? Give him smart advice? Scott Boris I
believe as his agent, and obviously Scott Boris wants to

(39:59):
make him as much money as he possibly can. But
if he's gonna be a major league baseball player, maybe
he ends up making somewhere near the amount that a
first round draft pick can make in the NFL. Uh,
And can Kyler Murray come out and convince uh the
NFL teams that he wants to play such that he
can get himself into the first round. The other thing

(40:20):
I would say is, uh, this is a big why
you may some of you might be saying, why are
you talking about this San Francisco Chronicle reporting last night
that Kyler Murray is likely to declare for the NFL draft.
That that's what the Oakland A's believe is going to happen,
which is why this story is at the top of mind.
But we will go right into the NFL divisional playoff

(40:42):
games top of our too. My name is Clay Travis.
Thanks for hanging with us here on OutKick the coverage
on Fox Sports Radio. Why from the Guico OutKick Studios
where fifteen minutes could save you fifteen per cent or
more on car insurance. Visit Guico dot com for a

(41:03):
free rate quote. And we're brought to you by True Car.
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True Car. True cash offer not available in all areas.
I would say the number one story of the morning

(41:23):
is Kyler Murray, according to the San Francisco Chronicle, reportedly
going to enter his name into the NFL draft. We
have not had a decision like this in a long
time between a first round baseball player and a first
round NFL player. We will see what ends up transpiring there.
But the poll question is up. You can go vote

(41:44):
what would you advise Kyler Murray to do? Go pro
in Major League Baseball or the NFL. If you're just
waking up and listening to us right now, we had
what I think is a really good discussion surrounding that
issue an hour one. But we are now two days
from the start of the divisional round of the NFL playoffs,
and there is a lot of drama surrounding all of

(42:05):
these games. As a preliminary data point, like I said
going to break in the last segment, the last fifteen
NFL playoff games, you want to know why the NFL
is the best when it comes to postseason. In the
last fifteen NFL playoff games, the underdog has gone fourteen

(42:26):
and one against the number, and the underdog has won
the majority of the games outright. That is a wild
outcome to think about from a pure gambling perspective, that
the underdog has been more successful. From a pure gambling perspective,
you'd be better off having bet the underdog to win outright.

(42:50):
In the NFL playoffs, certainly against the number, but even
on the money line, even to win or lose, the
underdog has done better than the favorite. So will that
trend continue? If it does, and I think this will
probably be our pull question tomorrow, what will happen? The
Colts are five and a half point underdogs on the

(43:10):
road against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys are a
seven point underdog on the road against the Rams, and
I say on the road, even though I think it's
probably likely that the Cowboys are going to have more
people in that state, in that stadium, in the Colisseum
rooting for them than they will, uh than the Rams will.

(43:32):
That's Saturday's games. On Sunday, the Chargers go on the
road to the Patriots. They are a four point underdog.
And the final game on Sunday afternoon Eagles against Saints
Eagles on the road as an eight point underdog. Who
do I like to pull off the upset the most
in the Divisional round of the NFL Playoffs. I actually

(43:55):
like the Chargers. I ain't. The Chargers are a better
team than the Patriots. Let me tell you this. This
is a data point that I don't think it is
getting very much attention in the history of the Brady
Belichick era. Do you know what, the most teams the
Patriots have ever lost too that didn't make the NFL
playoffs are three? In other words, in the history of

(44:19):
Brady and Belichick's dynasty together, the most teams that New
England Patriots have ever lost two in a season. Who
didn't go on to make the playoffs is three. The
average is one point eight, So on average, the New
England Patriots during this Brady Belichick dynasty have lost one

(44:40):
point eight games two teams that didn't end up making
the playoffs. Now, the way to break that down a
little bit simpler is, usually the Patriots don't lose too
bad teams if they do lose to bad teams. Coming
into this year, they had never lost to more than
three bad teams in a year. This year, the Patriots

(45:02):
lost five games two teams that didn't make the playoffs.
Think about that for a minute. Jags not close to
the playoffs, Lions not close to the playoffs, Titans are
right kind of close to the playoffs. The Titans missed
it just barely. Steelers kind of close to the playoffs,
but the Steelers missed it as well. Dolphins not that

(45:25):
close to the playoffs. The Patriots lost to five teams
that didn't make the playoffs this year. I don't think
the Patriots are that good. I think the Chargers, who
have the number one defense terms of points allowed since
Week five in the NFL, the best defense in the

(45:45):
NFL since Week five when terms of points allowed. I
ain't the Chargers are gonna go on the road and
beat the Patriots outright in Foxborough. I know some of
you right now, rolling your eyes, you're saying the Chargers,
no way, the Patriots never losing fox s Burrow. Are
you insane? Now? I think the Chargers are gonna go
on the road and win this game out right. Philip

(46:07):
Rivers is playing better than Tom Brady. Not saying he's better,
I'm saying right now, he's better than Tom Brady. I
think that Rivers has by far the superior downfilled receiving options,
assuming that Melvin Gordon is healthy. I think this Chargers
have the substantially better rush game. I think that the

(46:31):
Chargers offensive line has done a better job of protecting
of Philip Rivers. And I also think the Patriots are
close to being done. I think Rob Gronkowski is a
shell of his former self. I think Julian Edelman is
on the last legs. There is no downfilled, explosive passing

(46:53):
playmaker that Tom Brady has to throw the football to.
That's why the Patriots were so desperate make him play
and try to go grab Josh Gordon because their hope
was that he could be the guy to take the
top off the defense for the Patriot offense. I think
that the Patriot defense is slow and exploitable when it

(47:17):
comes to having fast playmakers, which I think the Chargers have.
I think the Chargers are gonna go on the road
and win this game out right. Now, that's not even
that luny of a prediction when you look at what's
happened in the NFL Draft in the last fifteen In
the NFL playoffs, in the last fifteen games, the underdog
has covered fourteen different times, and the underdog is actually

(47:41):
one outright more than the underdog has lost. So I
think there's zeroed out that at least one team who's
an underdog will go on the road and pull off
an outright upset. I think the one that is most
likely to do it is uh the San Diego San
Diego l A Chargers. Now, that would set up an

(48:03):
incredible scenario because if the Chargers win that game and
the Colts potentially go on the road and beat the Chiefs,
which I also think there is a decent chance could happen,
then we could end up with a situation where the
Chargers in a thirty thousand Seats Stadium are hosting the

(48:24):
a f C Championship game. Eddie Garcia, you are a
h your wife is a Charger season ticket holder. You
have been to a lot of their games. This year,
you travel to London to watch them play against the Titans.
Are you with me that it's not crazy at all
to think that the Chargers can go on the road
and win this game in Foxborough? It's tough to pick

(48:46):
against the Patriots because of very recent history. I mean,
it's hard not to take that into consideration. It's hard
to just focus on the football this year. But a
lot of what you're saying, I do think, e sense Um.
I am concerned about the weather. Um, But as as
I've told you before, the Chargers really enjoyed playing on

(49:09):
the road there and one in their last nine on
the road, they are five and one outright winners in
their last six as underdogs. So the Chargers I think,
relish the role that they're in right now, no question
about it. And I don't know if you saw the story,
and we'll see if this plays into it in any way,
but one of their players just had a child die Brandon. Yeah,

(49:31):
and I know, I don't you know I mean, maybe
that's something that kind of even is the final thing
to kind of galvanize them and you know, really make
them play together, playing for a teammate. Those kinds of
things I think are are can be real at times,
but just strictly as far as the football goes. Um,
you know, hopefully Melvin Gordon is healthy. But if they
can run the ball, and you know, I think Philip

(49:54):
Rivers can make enough plays, the defense is legit. I
think they can get after Tom Brady. Um. I think
it's gonna be a close game. It's just hard to
pick against the Patriots in New England at this time
of year, in the cold weather. But I do think
the Charges have a really good shot of winning that game.
I don't even think that the Chargers are are should

(50:14):
be an underdog in a substantial way. I think the
Chargers are better. I think the only reason the Patriots
are favored in this game is one obviously home field,
but two, I think there's a big factor of history here.
I think what you said, um Eddie is is is substantial. Here.
People are just looking at the past several years of
the Patriots and saying, man, I would feel so dumb

(50:37):
if I picked the Chargers to win this game just
because the Patriots have been so good at Foxborough over
the years, and I get that, but I tried to
look exclusively on this year. The Patriots have lost five
games two teams that didn't make the playoffs, the Chargers
eight and one in road games, and basically, let's be honest,
every game they play is effectively a road game. They're

(50:59):
five in one outright in their last six as underdogs.
That is, they've not just covered, they've won. I think
that this is a team that's going to go on
the road. The way Philip Rivers is playing, I just
don't think the Patriots are that good. And I've been
on this bandwagon for a while. I understand there are
a lot of you out there who fundamentally refused to
doubt the Patriots at all. But if you look at

(51:20):
the data of what the Patriots have produced this year,
they're just a team. Past years, the Patriots have been
a dynasty. This year, if you just look at this year,
Patriots are just a pretty good team. That's it. And
as a result, I think that the Chargers are more
than just a pretty good team, which is why I'm
going to pick him. Does Mark Schlere think I'm an

(51:42):
idiot for having that opinion? We will see will also
ask him about Kyler Murray and everything else. He set
to join us next and break down these NFL Divisional
Round playoff games. But for many of you out there
right now, while you're listening to you to me, you
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(52:04):
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(53:14):
it's Mark Schlareth breaking down the NFL Divisional Round playoff games.
This is Outkicked the coverage on Fox Sports Radio, Great Pool,
Red Hot Chili Peppers, bringing us back as we roll
into our two here on out Kick the Coverage. Appreciate
you spending your morning with us. Uh. We are going

(53:34):
to be joined here shortly by Mark Schlareth will break
down the NFL Divisional Round playoff games and get you
ready for that decision between Major League Baseball and the
NFL that Kyler Murray may face. Uh. This is the
Geico OutKick Studios and car shopping and be confusing with
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beat the Rockets won sixteen to one on nine Jane
Attenti coopo twenty seven pointswenty one rebounds and the win
from Milwaukee James Harden forty two points in the loss

(54:16):
for Houston, Pacers lose to the Celtics one one oh eight,
Wizards over the seventy six one oh six, and the
Grizzlies down the Spurs eighties six. College basketball, we had
a battle of ranked teams with number seven Kansas meeting
tc U seventy seven to sixty eight. In the NFL,
three more head coaching vacancies have been filled. In New
York Jets reportedly gonna hire recently fired Miami Dolphins head

(54:37):
coach Adam Gaze as their next head coach. Denver Broncos
are gonna bring in Chicago Bears Demons of creator Vic
Fangio as their next head coach, and the Cleveland Browns
are promoting offensivecordator Frandie Kitchens to be their next head coach.
The NHL season continues tonight with the Washington Capitals of
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(54:58):
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(55:20):
affiliates products not available in every state. Now back click
Travis and the Geico OutKick the Cover studios. We are
indeed here in the Geico Outkicked Studios. Let me bring
up Mark Schlareth. Mark, I want to start with the
the story that's kind of buzzing around the nation this morning,
and I think it's such a fascinating one because there
are a lot of different ways to go with it.
And I know we've talked about Major League Baseball versus

(55:41):
the NFL with you before. So Kyler Murray, according to
the San Francisco Chronicle, uh, the A's are preparing for
him to declare for the NFL. UM, if you were
advising Kyler Murray, what would you tell him to do
or to think about um in terms of making a
decision about whether or not to declare for the NFL

(56:02):
draft versus Major League Baseball. Well, I think, first off, Claire,
I would just tell him, hey, where do you think
you're gonna get drafted? What is the foot? Is the
hype or what are the is the buzz? And you know,
there is such a dearth of quarterbacks coming out this
year in the in the in the draft, the college
draft that most people and people I've talked to think

(56:22):
that he's going to go late in the first round.
Somebody's gonna take a flyer on him. So now you
think about the juxtaposition of baseball versus football, and everybody
thinks that baseball is Oh my gosh, you're gonna make
so much money, you're gonna stay healthy, YadA, YadA, YadA.
So he's got four point whatever million dollars that he
has already signed for. If he accepts that and goes

(56:42):
to the Oakland A's, if he gets drafted late in
the first round, he's gonna make eleven twelve million dollars. Now,
after you make that four and a half million dollars,
understand that you're not gonna get paid again for another
five years. So you're gonna go to the minor leagues
for three or four years if you happen to make
it to the major leagues. And once you get to
the major leagues, you have to have three years of
service three point whatever or four point whatever years of

(57:05):
service before you become arbitration eligible. So there's another year
of arbitration, which is negotiated between you and the team.
And usually, you know, they throw out a number. You
threw out a number, and and they either accept it
or they don't accept it, and you know, somewhere in
the middle, um, and I'm not. You know, that's kind
of how arbitration works. So there's another year and you're

(57:26):
gonna make what one two million dollars whatever whatever it
is that you're gonna make, that's kind of based on
what other players in your position make um on an average.
So you maybe six seven years before you actually get
a contract. And you know, nobody knows as better than
I do, because my son was a first round pick,
went straight to the major leagues after seven weeks and

(57:47):
the miners, and you know, and and and pitched in
the majors for for parts of four seasons before Torres
labor him. And and he's been bouncing around the miners
ever since, and he's like three weeks away from being
arbitration eligible and hasn't really made any money sense. So, like,
if you're gonna get twelve and a half the thirteen
million dollars to sign as a first round pick, like

(58:09):
you've already made more money and now you're onto your
second contract. Even if you fail in professional baseball, if
you're a first round pick at the quarterback position, you're
already gonna make more money than you're gonna make it
in baseball. The odds the odds of you getting that,
you know, that arbitration year and then getting a big
contract out to that in baseball, it's so competitive. I

(58:30):
just think that football is going to give you the
best chance to make the most money, um in the
shortest time span. So I think the San Francisco Chronicles right,
I think that he didn't really have a choice. If
he's gonna be a first round he's got to go
to the NFL. That's a really sophisticated answer that I
think flies in the face of a lot of people
who think, Oh, baseball is less taxing on your body.

(58:52):
I want to build on that a little bit with you.
But I'm reading from Baseball America right now, and I
tweeted out this link, which I would encourage people to read,
uh if they're kind of debating this story. Uh. And
and this paragraph says, if Murray gets drafted anywhere in
the first round, he will earn this is the NFL,
in the first round, he will earn somewhere between two

(59:13):
and seven times as much money over the next five
years in football as he will in baseball. If Murray
is even an average NFL quarterback, he will make more
than he will is anything other than an all All
Star outfielder, which is pretty pretty wild to think about. Again,
I think a lot of people don't contemplate this in

(59:33):
a very intelligent fashion because they don't run through all
the parameters like that. And by the way, you talked
about your son being a first round pick. Historically, only
two thirds of first round picks ever make the major leagues,
and only forty six percent of first round picks in
the Major League Baseball Draft ever last for three or
longer years. It's just hard. I mean, I don't think

(59:56):
people factor in how difficult minor league lifestyle can be
in terms of ever making it to the major leagues
at all. Yeah, the minor leagues. I mean you're on
busses and it wears you down, and you know you're playing.
I mean, you know, you you get on a bus
and let's say you've got, you know, some nagging injuries. Well,
you get done playing a game, it's eleven o'clock at night,
You jump on a bus, you drive all night, eleven

(01:00:18):
hours to the next city. You get up, you sleep
for a couple of hours in the hotel that they
get you in there. It's a crappy little hotel, and
then you get up and you're back at the baseball
field at two o'clock in the afternoon, have a back
injury or have a hip injury, or have a groin
How do you think that's ever gonna get treated and
get better during the course of minor league season and
then they're like, hey man, you really didn't play that
well this year. And the next thing you know, there

(01:00:39):
are you know, there's a ton of kids that are
getting drafted, a ton of kids that are getting into baseball.
They get in right out of high school, to get
in out of college. Then you've got all the Dominican
players and all the you know, and all the players
from around the world that are coming in. Um, I mean,
it is an incredibly difficult journey to get to the
big leagues. And let's face it, if you look at

(01:01:00):
big league rosters, there are two or three guys making
you know, of the money. Everybody else is, you know,
his league minimum, which is about five hundred, five hundred
fifty dollars. That's a lot of money. And I'm not
I'm not you know, I'm not like pooh poohing that
my amount of money. But the odds of you getting it, um,
and the odds of you being an All star, like

(01:01:21):
it just is, it's just an incredibly tough journey. Um.
To make it into the major leagues and to stay there,
to have the sticking power. You're one injury away. And
and let's face it, the other thing is and you know,
my son's a picture. Every guy coming out of high school,
every guy coming out through uh, you know, different countries,
is throwing a hundred miles an hour, you know. I mean,

(01:01:42):
it's like arm talent is ridiculous coming out in baseball
right now. Everybody does it. So it's just a really
hard journey. I just know it, you know. I mean
I've lived it. I've lived it for the last eleven
years with my kid. It's a hard journey. And he's
still you know, he's still grinding away. Um, So it
just is a hard journey. We're talking to Mark Slayer

(01:02:02):
at breaking down NFL versus Major League Baseball, probably as
well as anybody could do it, his son, major League baseball,
first round draft pick and obviously long term NFL player.
Let's go into the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
I don't know if you know this stat, Mark, but
in the last fifteen NFL playoff games, the underdog has
covered in fourteen of them. All Right, that if you

(01:02:24):
just blindly bet the underdog. In the last fifteen NFL
playoff games, you would have won fourteen of those bets,
which is wild Do you think that momentum for underdogs
will continue as we roll into the divisional round of
the playoffs? And if you do, who do you like
the Colts, the Cowboys, the Chargers, or the Eagles on

(01:02:46):
the road to potentially pull off upsets? Well, you know,
I think the Colts are really interesting. They're real interesting
matchup to me. I mean, I'll go back to the
wild card for a second. You know what's funny about
the whole wild Card weekend is that you show me,
you know, we get so enamored by being able to
throw the ball and all the kind of spread offense,

(01:03:07):
and you know, all the kind of ridiculous numbers that
we've put up over the course of the season. And
the interesting thing to me is when push comes to shove,
football hasn't changed at all. When you talk about lines
of scrimmage. Every team that captured and won the line
of scrimmage, every team that whipped the ass of the

(01:03:28):
other team up front. One in wild Card Weekend, the
Colts beat the snot out of Houston up front. They
get they get a victory. Uh, the Chargers did it
to Baltimore. Victory. I mean the Cowboys did it victory
and it's the way it went. And when you look
at these teams, I like the Colts in in Kansas City.

(01:03:50):
I think one thing, and I've been there where I'm
you know, I've been in the playoffs many times, and
I've been that number one seed many times. Especially as
an offensive player. It is hard and and as rhythmic
as the Chiefs are on offense, when you take that
week off, yeah, you get fresh, but you missed the

(01:04:11):
timing of your offense. You missed the timing of of
playing together and the rhythmic nature that is playing the
offensive side of the ball, especially when you base your
offense on throwing the football. Um, it is hard to
get in that rhythm. And I've been a number one
seed where I've lost, you know that I've lost in
that divisional round of the playoffs. So I like the Colts.

(01:04:33):
I like the Chargers on the road. Um, you know,
I like what they do from the defensive end position.
And boy, they took that Baltimore offense that has been
just outstanding, just crazy good, and and they just hog
tied them. It was unbelievable. And Gus uh uh, Gus
Bradley their defensive coordinators switching taking all the linebackers out

(01:04:55):
and playing all dps. He was in seven dbs at
times playing d vs as middle line ackers. They just
did a phenomenal job of game planning to Baltimore Ravens
and and then you just saw Lamar Jackson and the
inadequate sees of throwing the football how they came to,
you know, to really cost that football team. Um, so
I like them as well. The Cowboys. I think I'll

(01:05:15):
go Saints because I think the Saints offensive line wise,
I think they're outstanding. But that's gonna be a great
matchup because the Cowboys do a phenomenal job on both
defensive and offensive lines of scrimmage. So, um, you know,
I I think I'll take uh, I'll think I'll take Well,
the Saints are playing the Eagles, but I'll take the
Saints there. And the Cowboys are the ones. Um, the

(01:05:38):
Cowboys are the ones that give me a little bit
of pause. Uh wait, wait, do I have that right
or I have that wrong? The Eagles have the Saints right,
and the Cowboys with the Cowboys. Cowboys are on the
road against the Rams. Yeah the Rams. Yeah yeah, the Cowboys. Yeah,
I screwed that one up. But the Cowboys, the Cowboys,
I like, I give them a great shot of going

(01:06:00):
to Los Angeles and beating the Rams. So I tell
you what, it's just the underdog thing that you talked about.
I would I would do that. But um, those lines
of scrimmage are are what won those wild card games
and that's what I'm looking at this week to going
into these divisional rounds. What do you think about I
know you've got a lot of connections in Denver. What
do you think about the Broncos head coaching higher? Um?

(01:06:23):
And what do you think about Kubayak coming back as
an offensive coordinator? Well, listen, you know, I'll never like.
I love Gary Kubiak. He's a good friend of mine
and Gary, you know, was my offensive coordinator, so I
absolutely love him. And you know when people say, well,
you know, the game has changed so much and we
we need to evolve and had such a bunch of hogwash, Um,

(01:06:44):
it just is it's crazy to me. Like, you know,
you look at Arizona and you're hiring Cliff Kingsbury, like,
wait a minute, Cliff Keeensbury win thirty five and forty
in the Big twelve where they don't play defense. You
took over Mike Leach's football team, had a good season.
You want a bowl game, and you haven't won since.
And oh, by the way, you have Patrick Mahomes. You

(01:07:06):
coached him to a five and seven season, and your
last two bowl games was I think it was the
Texas Bowl and the Birmingham Bowl, and you lost both
of them. And the only reason I know to go
to Birmingham is to have surgery at Dr James andrews Way.
So like, I like, I like, I don't get you know,
this fascination with oh, he's a young innovator. Guess what

(01:07:27):
playoff football had nothing to do with innovation. Had to
do with who kicked who's ass. That's what it came
down to. And so like the innovation part. Everybody I
you know, I call games every week, like and so
I'm I'm putting fifty hours of film study a week
into the to the to the uh the two teams
that I'm calling. You know what, everybody runs the same crap, right,

(01:07:49):
Everybody gets in a three boyton one formation. They run
all goes special, which is everybody runs go rounds. One
guy runs an over route, right, everybody runs it. Everybody
runs a curl flat combination, everyone runs a slap flat combination.
Everyone runs what they call lion or double slants. You know,
I mean, it's it's not rocket science like and and

(01:08:09):
the thing is the good coordinators, the guys who are
evolving the game. The guys figure out what defense you're
gonna play in what situation based upon what you what
you played in the first quarter, and they had just
a route, they had just you know, one guy's route
based on the way the safety's playing, are based on
the way the corners playing, and they get you for
a big play, you know, they get you for a

(01:08:30):
twenty two yard explosive. That's that's the evolution. Other than
that man, you can look at anybody's filming. Everybody runs
the same stuff. So your fascination with oh my god,
you know this guy that we hired, he I once
I heard he got some McVeigh on him. Yeah, they
were in the shower together and he got some McVeigh
on him. So let's hire that guy, right. Shoot, I

(01:08:50):
called three brams games. I fist bumped McVeigh. I should
be a head coach. I just like it's it's mind
boggling to me. The only thing I don't like about
the higher in Denver is that it came and a
lot of teams do this now, so it's not just Denver.
But it came with hey, you're gonna be the head coach,

(01:09:11):
but here's your assistance. And I think automatically, when you
do that, you you emasculate the head coach from a
player's perspective. You're saying, hey, here's your head coach, guys,
but he's not truly empowered. He's the head coach that
we appointed it, but we didn't empower him because he

(01:09:32):
has saddled with all the assistance that we already had
because we don't want to pay new assistance, and so
he's already behind the eight ball. He's already happy, he
already has to overcome the fact that you haven't truly
empowered him. And you know, we've seen it work. We
saw at work in Indianapolis with Frank Bright this year
and he did a phenomenal job. They started out one
in five, but he did an incredible job. But I

(01:09:54):
think it's a hard thing to do. It's a hard
thing to be saddled that way, um to start, and
so that would be my biggest concern. We're talking to
Mark Hilaire if only he had some opinions. Um, when
you look at the Patriots, I'm breaking them down. They
lost five games to non playoff teams this year. On average,

(01:10:14):
in the Brady Belichick era, they lost one point eight
games a year to non playoff teams. They've never lost
two more than three ever in the Brady Belichick era.
Have the wheels started to come off? Or do you
think the Chargers are not ready to take the next
step and actually win a game this big Well, I

(01:10:36):
tell you what I think. I think the Chargers are ready. Um,
it's gonna be interesting if you go back to last season.
I think it was last season, um, and I'm you know,
I'm going back into my mind watching film. But last season,
I think they played the Chargers, that New England played
the Chargers, and um, they just absolutely cut them up. Now,

(01:10:57):
Gus Bradley is a guy that's gonna play you know, uh,
Cover three. That's essentially they based out of that old,
that old Seattle system. So it's a matchup Cover three
and So the weakness of that is you're flat like
the flats. So when you go back and you can
go back and look at this, I think the running

(01:11:18):
backs caught fourteen passes in that game for probably a
hundred and fifty hundred and sixty yards. And I'm just
going back to the film study that I that I
watched and that I remember. And so anytime you play
cover three, you run the corners off deep. You know,
they gotta run their third, their deep third defenders, So
your your curl, your curl flat defender has got to

(01:11:39):
get twelve yards depth, you know. So he's going twelve
yards deep and then you dump into the running back.
Now he's got to come up and make a tackle
on that running back. So it's a real weakness of
that particular coverage, and that's what they want to sit
in the whole time. And so you know, they cut
them up a year ago, um and one against the Chargers.
So that's something they're gonna have to contend with. They're

(01:12:01):
gonna have to play some different variations. Otherwise Brady'll just
take that and they go up and down the field
with those running backs. I assume Gus Bradley will change that,
but um, I just don't think it's the same Patriots,
you know, I just don't think they have the same
depth of talent defensively or offensively. And and I think
the Chargers, like I think they are an incredibly talented

(01:12:21):
football team on the defensive side of the ball. Um
And of course you've got Philip Rivers and I think
they've got one of the underrated wide receiving corps in football.
I think Tina Allen is just at football play at
Jesse Um. He is a unbelievably tough cover and he
kind of sets an attitude and you don't get it
very often from the receiver position or the receivers actually

(01:12:41):
setting the offensive attitude. He does that for them adequate upfront.
So I think the Chargers have a great chance to
go into New England and winning a playoff game. Outstanding stuff.
As always, Mark Schlaret, we will talk with you hopefully
next week break down the divisional games. Appreciate you joining
to see him, my man anytime, buddy. That's Mark Schlareth

(01:13:01):
at Mark Schlareth on Twitter. We come back. It's Animal
Thunderdome time. I think the first one of the week.
If I'm not mistaken. This is out Kick the coverage
on Fox Sports Radio. Welcome back Geico, OutKick Studios. Man
M Drives supplement I use every day. You should consider
it too. If you want to feel stronger, have more

(01:13:23):
energy and drive. Now is the time to start taking
M Drive. To learn more, visit M drive for men
dot com today. Refine your prime with M Drive. We
are in our prime here, especially we're about to go
with the Animal thunderdome, cute music, boys, ladies and gentlemen.

(01:13:46):
I'm just glad. I was scared, boys and good. I
thought he thought I was like this enormous piece of
chicken diarm times here. I say, he's animal thunder dog.
What you got for me? Nig? All right, Clay, let

(01:14:06):
me take you to Eagle Lake, Mississippi, where a former
Louisiana State University lineman was shot while duck hunting in
Mississippi and his leg had to be amputated. They say
the dog did it. The dog shot him. Yeah. Micah
Heckford tells the Clarion Ledger that he and several others

(01:14:26):
were on a duck hunting trip near Eagle Lake when
Matt Branch was accidentally hit by a blast from his shotgun,
which he had left loaded in the bed of his
pickup truck. Heckford says that a labrador named Tito jumped
onto the truck bed, stepped on the safety of branches
shotgun and pulled the trigger. He says, the twelve gage

(01:14:47):
shotgun shell fired through the side of the truck. The
dog did this, he says, and hit branches left thigh.
Branch has since had to have the leg amputated and
is expected to recover. That's the worst luck of all time.
I mean it went through the through the truck. Oh man.

(01:15:08):
I mean that is just just brutal. I mean, the dog,
the labrador. Oh man, what unbelievable story. What else you
got for me? Yea? Indeed all right? Reese Howard of Perth,
Australia screamed so loudly while he was killing a spider
that police were called to his house. You know what,

(01:15:29):
This sounds like a ridiculous story, but I have one
billion percent couldn't see this happening, uh in my house,
Like my wife is so terrified of spiders that every
now and then I will hear a blood curdling scream
in my house and I'll run it I'll be like,
oh my god, what happened? You know, because if you're
a parent, every parent knows like the difference between say,
like a kid like fighting with his brother, which happens

(01:15:52):
all the time in my house, like screaming and like
a oh I just fell down and I'm legitimately hurt
scream um. And so I still know that difference between
like my wife being in danger and there being a
spider in our bathroom. It's funny you say that, because
the story continues by saying a concerned resident called police
after they heard Howard shouting why won't you die? Along

(01:16:13):
with a child screaming despite being scared of spiders. He
killed it using a diaper as his his girlfriend, Carra,
was in the shower. His daughter was the child that
was heard screaming nearby. The first thing I could grab
was a diaper. So I was on the floor saying
why won't you die and screaming as my daughter was

(01:16:33):
also screaming in the playroom. Howard told nine News, what
an unbelievable story. So the police showed up, convinced that
he was trying to murder his child. I could see
that too. By the way, when you try to kill
something with something way too soft, so the diaper would
be you know, absorbent and way too soft. So trying
to kill the spider with the with the diaper, I
can see not being very effective, all right. And then

(01:16:55):
from London this would be in the category of one
of your worst night. There is a London man. He
bought a brand new tea kettle in a post Christmas sale,
so it gets shipped to his house. He opens it
up all excited. Guess what was inside this brand new
tea kettle? A snake? A snake? What kind of snake?

(01:17:16):
The r s p c A says that Barry Downs
called for an animal collection officer when he opened the
tea kettle that he bought from an Argos store December
and discovered after opening it that a small corn snake
slithered out of it into his kitchen counter. He used
a saucepan lid to keep the serpent contained until the

(01:17:37):
r s p c A Animal Collection officer arrived. Yeah.
Can you imagine that? So you're excited with his new purchase,
you open it up and a snake is in there. Yeah,
I'd be done. I'd be done. I don't think i'd
ever use that again. It's like when our guy was
trying to go to the bathroom and there were snakes
in the in the toilet, like or remember the years back,
maybe last year or something when they had the guy

(01:17:58):
who was shipping the Cobra's, the King cobras and the
Pringles cans and You're like, this is just this is
just they were trying to smuggle them in, And I'm like,
that guy needs the death penalty. Like the idea that
I could open up Pringles and a cobra would spring out,
is I mean you should go. I I don't even
support the death penalty, but I think you should be
put to death if you even contemplate that. Yeah, the

(01:18:19):
question is how did the snake get in there? They
think that the snake may have traveled from China, which
is where the kettle is made, or it's snuck into
the box at a storage warehouse somewhere in the UK. Um,
do you have anything else? Or I've got a crazy
one that could potentially be an animal Thunderdome, go for it,
So are our girls. Shannon Spake does sidelines for for

(01:18:40):
Fox Sports for for Football and also does uh NASCAR
race Hub every day this is pretty wacky. We don't
know who this is, but I think maybe we can
classify them as animals. We are starting to get this,
so I'm reading. I want to read directly from the story.
We are now getting space signals that are blasts of radio,
and we don't know who's sending them from space. Uh.

(01:19:02):
Scientists have spotted repeated blasts of radio signals coming from
deep in space. The breakthrough is only the second time
scientists have seen such a repeating radio burst. This is
like sign that there might be intelligent life. According to
some experts. It both deepens the mystery and offers a
potential opportunity to finally finally understand what might be throwing

(01:19:25):
out the burst from a galaxy billions of light years away. Uh.
The radio bursts have been speculated to be the result
of everything from exploding stars to transmissions from aliens. They've
remained entirely mysterious, with little evidence of where they might
be coming from. These flashes only last for a millisecond,

(01:19:46):
but they are flung out with the same amount of
energy the Sun takes twelve months to produce, and the
most exciting of the new burst is says it repeats
six times apparently from the same location. Um, and this
one is pretty wild. Again, we don't know exactly who
could be sending them, but maybe, just maybe it could

(01:20:09):
be Aliens And that would be a hell of an
animal Thunderdome if I came on one day and I
was like, Hey, so, by the way, we got a
whole new specs to talk about today and they're trying
to kill us all, so we'll see. But that's an actual,
actual story that is out there, that is circulating among
scientific America. There are radio signals emanating from a billion
light years away and nobody knows who's sending them. There's

(01:20:33):
a good start for your morning. Maybe the pin prick
on your hair that you're you've got some cold chills.
This is out Kick the Coverage, Final Hour, Thursday edition.
Next on our Kick Oh from the Guico out Kick Studios,
where fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more
on car insurance. Visit guyico dot com for a free

(01:20:53):
rate quote. And we're brought to you by True Car.
When it comes to selling or trading in your car,
you need to make good choices and with True Car,
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ready to sell or trade in your car, checkout True
Car True Cash offer not available in all areas. Bunch
of interesting stories that are out there. If you're just
starting off your morning with us, just waking up, the

(01:21:15):
alarms going off in the first voice you hear is
me congrats, you know, in my own house. The first
voice I'm starting to hear, it's not even my wife's.
Now we got a peloton, uh, And by we, I
mean I bought my wife a peloton for for Christmas,
and uh, she now will start off the mornings a
lot of times on this peloton bike. And the other morning,

(01:21:35):
I was coming downstairs and usually you know, I wake
up and the I'm up a long time before everybody
else in the house is, and uh, I do the
show and everything else. I got a home studio and
I come downstairs and um, and I hear like people screaming,
and I'm like, what's going on here? It's not my
kids screaming. It's like adults screaming. And I'm like, why
why are there other people in my house? It's early

(01:21:56):
in the morning. Everything else. Walk into my wife, you know,
like already been only on the peloton with all the
instructors screaming in the background there. Um, And they advertised
that thing, and this is not an advertisement, although they
should start spending money with us. They advertised that thing
throughout the entirety of the of the NFL and college
football seasons. Obviously worked for me. She absolutely loves it.

(01:22:17):
So Peloton people, if you're listening right now, you should
be advertising on this show, because my wife is using
your product every morning and she loves it. And also
she's using it so much that I think other people
are screaming in the house other than my kids. Um.
But speaking of screaming, Eric Reid, you guys been paying
attention to this story. I didn't talk about it a
lot because I knew it was crap the minute it

(01:22:37):
came out. Um, he claimed the panther safety, He claimed
that he had been drug tested a ton because he's
suing the NFL for collusion. Did you guys pay attention
to this story? I had a lot of you out
there kind of did. I didn't ever talk about it
on this show. I didn't talk about it on OutKick
in general because I felt like it was going to
be like the Michael Bennett racial profiling story in Las

(01:23:00):
Vegas that turned into being a complete lie. And I
try not to spread lies. I mean, that's what I
try to do in general. When I see a story
and I think, I don't think there's any truth to this.
I've got a big enough platform now with the radio
and with TV and the periscope and the Facebook and
the website and everything else, not to mention social media.
I choose a lot of times not to spread stories

(01:23:23):
because I'm like, oh, there's no way this is true,
and I know that the way will go out and
most people won't pay attention to the correction. Well, if
you remember during the season, the why I went out,
Eric Reid said, I'm being drug tested a ton by
the NFL because they're upset that I am suing them,
because they're upset that I'm taking a knee during games,

(01:23:45):
and so this is that what they're trying to do.
They're trying to catch me using drugs, so they're drug
testing me all the time. And the NFL UH didn't
have a comment immediately because they had to do their
own investigation. And the allegation by air agreed that this
was taking place went everywhere. It was a viral story.
It was a number one story for several days in

(01:24:07):
the world of sports. Well, yesterday, after we got off
the air, the NFL and the NFL Players Association released
a statement saying, we can't release this guy's drug testing history,
but basically everything that he's been saying is a lie.
He hasn't been targeted anymore than any other player. And
I'm summarizing what they said. Um, they didn't say this

(01:24:30):
guy is a liar, but that's effectively what they said.
And some people are so dumb They're like, well, how
can you trust the NFL, And I'm like, hey, knuckleheads,
the NFL Players Association issuing a statement with the NFL
means that Eric read is a liar because the NFL
Players Association is the organization that sues the NFL all

(01:24:54):
the time when they violate player rights. So it's pretty
extraordinary that NFL and the NFL Players Association would both
issue a statement saying, hey, this is not true. And
even if you were inclined to believe the conspiracy that
Eric Reid was trotting out there, that the NFL was
conspiring against him, it never made any sense because his

(01:25:18):
argument was, hey, they're trying to drug test me so
that I'll fail a drug test so they can delegitimize
my collusion case. That's his argument effectively for his conspiracy.
But that never made any sense, because the only way
you would fail a drug test is if you are
using drugs. If the NFL was willing to violate its

(01:25:41):
own rules to drug test you more frequently, wouldn't they
also be willing to just go ahead and give you
a fake positive on the drug test. But it never
made any sense, like, oh, they're trying to drug test
me all these times, even though he was lying about
how often he was getting drug tested, They're trying to
drug test me all these times. And the reality was,

(01:26:03):
if they really wanted to drug test him that much,
what they're trying to do is get him to fail
a drug test, they would have just doctored the samples instead.
He failed a drug test. Now, that would have been
a flagrant violation of league rules and a flagrant violation
of the law, But so would violating the rules and
testing him more so be I believe in conspiracy sometimes,

(01:26:25):
but I believe in conspiracies when they make sense. This
one never made sense, and now we know Eric Reid
is a liar. What you will not hear very much
is very many people covering the fact that Eric Reid
has been proven now to be a liar according to
both the NFL and the nfl p A, because for
whatever reason, when we catch athletes and laws, we don't
cover the laws in the media as much as we

(01:26:48):
did the initial allegation c Bennett, Michael who claimed he
had been racially profiled by the Las Vegas Police Department
when they released a hundred and twenty different camera angles
to prove that he was lying, crickets, nobody said a
damn thing, hardly other than me, who pointed out that
Michael Bennett was a liar, just like I'm pointing out

(01:27:08):
that Eric Reid now is a liar. Another major story
that I think is intriguing Kyler Murray has to make
a decision about whether or not to go pro and
UH in particular, a lot of people you just heard,
by the way, how good was Mark Slayer. Mark Slaret
just joined us an hour too, and he's always phenomenal,
always such a good guest, one of the top radio

(01:27:28):
guests we have by far um and he's always got
so many interesting things to say. And his son was
a first round draft pick at in baseball. Obviously, he
is a former NFL player, and a lot of people
are in this Kyler Murray report, which by the way,
is coming from the San Francisco Chronicle courtesy of sources
in the Oakland A's. The Oakland A's are saying they

(01:27:51):
expect Kyler Murray to declare for the NFL Draft, And
my argument has been, we've got a poll question up
about this that he should go and if he can
be drafted in the first round, it's a no brainer
that he should go into the first round. I've got
a poll question up asking you guys, should he go
into the NFL or Major League Baseball? And this is

(01:28:13):
a good example I think of people being reflexively dumb.
Usually there is wisdom in the masses right in general,
I believe in democracy. I believe that we should have
millions of people make a decision and that they're going
to make the right decision. Sometimes that's not correct. Sometimes

(01:28:34):
people make dumb decisions. And I think that is the
decision that is being made right now by our poll voters.
Nearly nineteen thousand of you have voted in the first
hour that this poll question has been up, would you
advise Kyler Murray to go pro in Major League Baseball
or the NFL. You can go vote at Clay Travis
is the location on Twitter. You can find me easily

(01:28:57):
at Clay Travis. Seventy four percent of you are voting
that he should go pro in Major league baseball. Now,
the evidence doesn't support that he should do that. Why not?
Of first round draft picks in the Major League Baseball,
only sixty six percent of them ever make the major leagues.

(01:29:19):
So one in three of first round draft picks in
Major League Baseball never make the major leagues. Only forty
six percent of them ever ever make it more than
three years in Major League Baseball. And when you actually
look at the numbers, if Kyler Murray is a first

(01:29:41):
round pick, and this is a quote from Baseball America
and I put out this uh this article for you
guys to read, if Kyler Murray gets drafted anywhere in
the first round in the NFL, he will earn somewhere
between two and seven times as much money over the
next five years in football then he will in baseball.

(01:30:04):
If Murray is even an average NFL quarterback, he will
make more than he will as anything other than an
all star outfielder. And this is pretty wild when you
actually break down this scenario. Here's uh, here's a further example.
I'm reading from Baseball America, and this is I think

(01:30:24):
information that is counterintuitive relative to expectations. In football, Murray
is consistently projected as a first round pick. His college
teammate Baker Mayfield landed twenty two million as a signing
bonus and over thirty two million in guaranteed money by
being the number one pick in last year's draft. If

(01:30:48):
he plays reasonably well, Mayfield will get a big pay
day as a free agent after the two season. Even
if he signed a five year extension, Mayfield would hit
free agency again in for a second big pay day.
That's the best case scenario. And then they say, well,

(01:31:09):
what if Kyler Murray lasts until the very end of
the draft. Then they say that Kyler Murray will stand
to make twenty million or more before he gets to
free agency, versus four million dollars that he will make
playing baseball, which is really pretty fascinating, And they even

(01:31:29):
break down the baseball decision. In baseball, Kyler Murray is
signing for four point six million dollars. Okay, uh, but
that's the only pay day he will get in baseball
for the next five to seven seasons. And he has
a long road to get to the major leagues. And

(01:31:51):
they say, even if he gets to the major leagues,
he's still three years away from arbitration. So his first
big pay day for baseball would can come until three
or four. Even if he's a good baseball player, his
first chance at baseball free agency wouldn't come until six

(01:32:11):
or seven. By that time, he would be twenty nine
or thirty years old, which means he would only get
one significant free agent contract if he ends up being
a very productive baseball player. So this is a little
bit counterintuitive because I think a lot of people, because
of the risk of injury and CT and everything else,

(01:32:34):
I think that baseball is the safer financial option. It's
actually not true. For Kyler Murray. Football, if he is
a first round pick at the quarterback position, is by
far the safer option. If maximizing income is one of
his goals. Now, look, if he just loves baseball a
lot more than he loves football, then more power to him.

(01:32:58):
He can go chase after what ever whatever dream he wants.
But I do think that's kind of very counterintuitive and
reflective of the fact that our poll voters, nearly twenty
thousand of them this morning, are getting that wrong. Only
percent of people are correctly analyzing this situation and saying

(01:33:19):
that Kyler Murray should go pro, particularly in football this year,
because the quarterback class is pretty weak, and I think
he would definitely be a first round pick. In fact,
if you want a little bit of drama, Cliff Kingsbury
now the new head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. He
happens to have the number one overall pick, and what

(01:33:40):
do you know. Back in October, Cliff Kingsbury had this
to say, Kyler is I mean, he's a freak man.
Party is a really good young player, and he's going
to be a tremendous player of But Kyler as a
freak and I've followed him since here's a sophomore um
in high school, and UM just think the world of
him and what he can do on a football own.
And I've never seen one better in high school and

(01:34:02):
he's starting to show it now at the college level. One.
I mean, I don't have enough good things to say
about him. He's phenomenal. I've never seen him have a
poor outing, not one which a quarterbacks it's impossible to do,
but he's done it. And uh, I want I take
him with the first figure of the draft if I could.
I know he's signed up to play baseball, but he
is a dominant football player, and um, I would, I
would take him with the first pick. Wow, Cliff Kingsbury

(01:34:25):
probably didn't think he'd actually have the first pick when
he was answering those questions in October, But oh, how
the apple turns. He now has the number one overall pick. Now,
of course he has Josh Rosen. Uh. And Josh Rosen
was the first round pick of the Arizona Cardinals last year.
And that's in fact, one of the reasons why Cliff
Kingsbury is being hired is because this idea that he

(01:34:46):
can be a big, big helper in terms of the
growth of Josh Rosen. But man, that's a hell of
a sound bite to have floating around out there. As
Kyler Murray makes the decision about potentially going row all right,
you know what's going on right now? We're gonna be
joined by Todd Ferman, my guy from lock it In.
Um we were on a television show together on FS

(01:35:07):
one four thirty Eastern, three thirty Central, two thirty Mountain,
one thirty Pacific. He will join us next break down
the NFL Divisional round of the playoff games from a
gambling perspective, and also we have an audio clip to play.
I was savagely attacked by Danny G's girlfriend, Rachel Bonetta.
Danny G. Did you hear the attack by Rachel Bonetta
on on me? I wasn't even on television Tuesday. Did

(01:35:30):
you hear this? I sure did, and it makes me
love Rachel even more. Yeah, Bonetta just went after me
um in an aggressive, unprovoked no defense allowed from me
because I wasn't on the air. I was on an
airplane flying back from the National title game, and Rachel
Bonetta savagely attacked me on television. We have the audio
of that, uh, and we'll talk about that as well

(01:35:51):
as the NFL Divisional Round playoff games. But you know
what's going on right now is we have one of
the lowest unemployment rates of all time in the history
of the nation. In fact, if you are around my age,
if you are basically under the age of fifty five
or so, you have never been alive in this country
when there's been a lower unemployment rate, when there's been

(01:36:11):
more desire to hire, when it has been harder to
find the right person. And do you know what is
the smartest way to ensure that you get the right
people for your job openings. You need to go to
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(01:36:55):
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That's c l a Y. If you love this show,
and my mom says it's the best sports talk radio

(01:37:18):
show anywhere in the country, show yours and how could
she ever be wrong, show your support for it and
go to zip recruiter by going to zip recruiter dot
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The Savage attack from Rachel Bonetta on air on Yours

(01:37:41):
Truly Up next, this is out Kicked the coverage on
Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I
Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live
blink on eight to bring us back. I gotta give
credit to Roberto pulling out all the hits from the nineties,

(01:38:04):
the early tooth and I said, look, I want all
songs that people are gonna love from the nineties and
early two thousand's on this show, and by everybody, I
mean me. That's my wheelhouse. Uh. And then Roberto making
it happy speaking the hits. Yes, welcome back, Geico. Out
Kick Studios were brought to you by True Car. When
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(01:38:26):
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Car True Cash offer not available in all areas. All right,
let's go ahead and bring in Eddie Garcia. Then we
have Todd Ferman ready, and I want you guys to
hear the savage attack that Rachel Bonnetta brought forth upon
me on Tuesday on the television show while I wasn't
there to defend me. We've got the audio to play

(01:38:48):
for you. But first, Todd Ferman, what's up? I mean, sorry,
what's up? Eddie Garcia? I don't whoever's gonna talk talk?
I think it's Eddie Garcia. First, that would be me?
And uh, what's up? Is news from the NFL coaching News,
where three more vague jencs have been filled. The New
York Jets are gonna hire recently fired Miami Dolphins head
coach Adam Gaze as their next head coach. Denver Broncos
are going with Chicago Berrys devinsivecordator Vic Fangio as their

(01:39:10):
new head coach, and the Cleveland Browns are promoting offensive
coordinator Freddie Kitchens to be their next head coach. On
the Guy Goes Scoreboard in the NBA game the night
was in Houston, where the Bucks beat the Rockets one
sixteen to one oh nine. Battle of Stars, and this
one saw Milwaukee's Janice Attended to coopo go for twenty
seven points and twenty one rebounds, while Houston's James Harden
had forty two points and eleven boards in the Laws.

(01:39:30):
Celtics over the Pacers one thirty five to one oh eight,
seven different players from Boston and double digits in that win.
Wizards over the seventy six one twenty three, one oh
six Grizzlies down the Spurs nine eighty six and in
Top College Basketball number seven Kansas, number twenty five TCU
sevent losses for number eleven Auburn, number sixteen Ohio State
and number seventeen Houston and supported Bronte by True Car.

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Back to Out kicked the coverage in ten seconds. But first,
a word from farmers. From a dog accidentally flooding a
living room to a dog taking a joy ride. We've
covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or
two because we've seen a thing or two. We are

(01:40:13):
farmers under written my Farmers truck fire insurance exchanges and
affiliates products not available in every state. Now Mac click
Travis and me. Geico outkicked the coverage studios. We are
indeed here in the Geico olt Kick studios. And so Tuesday,
I was flying back from uh from Oakland from the
Bay Area to Nashville, and my phone suddenly blew up

(01:40:36):
because I had been savagely attacked by Rachel Benetta, the
host of our lockt In television show airing four thirty Eastern,
three thirty Central to thirty Mountain one thirty Pacific. Set
your DVRs or turn on your televisions during the day
and check us out. This guy is on with us,
but first Todd Ferman, but first Rachel Bonetta. This aired

(01:40:58):
on Tuesday. I was savage the attacked. This is what
it sounded like. We are going to do our approval
rating for Clay bringing up here. Okay, So okay, I've
always wanted to do this character. We've got it too,
because that's right job performance. I think we can all

(01:41:18):
agree that that sits at zero. He's putting at betting
authenticity again with twenty two because he's he's a terrible person,
but he owns up to it, right, he owns it.
And then the mustache rating negative three seventy two. I
think we can all agree on that. And I'm ster fire,
So what do you think? I just think, well, we
can add goat status at like a thirties seven because he,

(01:41:42):
out of all of us, smells most like a goat
when he was there, we go that was an attack
by by primarily Rachel Bonetta up on me. And if
you're not familiar with the priests that like the idea
there Jason Whitlock, who was sitting in for me on
the show. They do approve ratings on his show with
Marcellus Wiley, speak for yourself and you get ranked on

(01:42:04):
a scale of one to So I was given a
two for character. I was given a zero for job
performance and and minus whatever it was seventy three for
my mustache. Um Todd Ferman, I didn't hear you talking
during that. I'm assuming that was because you felt like
I was being viciously attacked like Nancy Carrigan style by

(01:42:25):
Tanya Harding. That's kind of the way that I would
analogize this. That had absolutely nothing to do with it.
I just wasn't privy to some of the pre show discussions.
So this was carefully calculated, meticulously planned, uh and more
importantly executed with the utmost precision by the talented panelists
and hosted Rachel and cousin stal doing the dirty work
for you in your absence. But that's what happens when

(01:42:47):
you take off days, Clay, you go to watch Alabama
get absolutely invistrated by Clemson every which way Monday night,
you willlect to use Tuesday as a travel day. I
apparently remained the only iron Man that has appeared on
every single episode of Locket instance our show debut in
early September. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Bragg bragg brag so um
when you when you look so. I don't know if

(01:43:09):
you know this, but Danny G, Danny G, come up
here for a second. Danny G has a huge crush
on Rachel Vanetta. Do you remember do we still have
the audio of Banetta reacting to my telling you, Danny
G that she had that that you had a crush
on her. Yeah, I think so. I think Roberto's pulling
that up right now. All right, we're gonna pull up
the audio. If you haven't heard it, I don't even
I know you were on the show, since you are
an Iron van Furman, but you don't know Danny G personally,

(01:43:32):
but you can hear him talking here. What do you
think his chances are with Banetta? You know what? I
Rachel has been in a long term relationship with her
boyfriend Pete, who hasn't actually come to grate us with
his presence. Danny's gonna have to be a little bit
of a home wrecker there. And I think Danny is
a stronger man of character, unlike you, who scored a

(01:43:53):
two on the approval rating. So I don't really like
Danny's chances to really consummate his relationship with Rachel. I
got a two on the character. Do we have me
letting Vanetta know that Danny G has a crush on her? Yeah?
He All right, here's that audio to get on a roll.
The Raiders get the big wine. I think the Raiders
can extend their role, even though they're now at the
very bottom three intent. I like betting on the Raiders

(01:44:13):
going forward. My guy, Danny G says they're playing well.
And by the way, Vanetta, not to give you a compliment,
but he's an absolute love with you. He asked about
you all the time. He's watching right now. That is uncomfortable.
So things going well. That's the early start of their relationship.
There hasn't been much progress since. But there is now
a Chick fil A. You could invite her, Danny G
to go to Chick fil A with you. Yeah, and

(01:44:34):
ever since you did that on the TV show, she
has been following me on Twitter and liking my posts there.
That's how it starts game. I mean, we're seeing a
budding relationship with Jalen Hurts in the Miami Hurricanes is
such as well. So you never know when push comes
to shove, how these things ultimately unfold. Yeah, you know what.

(01:44:54):
That is interesting. So we haven't talked about this yet,
but Jalen Hurts is now in the transfer portal, which
is just an amazing phrase, by the way, the transfer portal,
as if he's gonna get beamed up somewhere back in
the day on Star Trek. So but he has started
following Manny Diaz and several of the University of Miami
football players, meaning that maybe the Hurricanes are potentially the

(01:45:17):
destination point. Yeah, And I think when you look at
Miami going through changing in the guard of Manny Daz
taking over from Mark Direct, do you want some of
that experience instability? And even if Jalen Hurts isn't known
for being a vertical passer, uh, their quarterback play was
nothing short of abhorrent down the stretch with Malik Rogier
and Nicosy Perry really struggling. So you know, good things
for Jalen Hurts, who stuck it out, could have easily

(01:45:38):
transferred and left Alabama. You'd like to see him finish
his college career somewhere where you coul at least be
the primary signal caller. How what is his value like
if you like Miami, I think is the most average
team in college football next year? Right there? Probably a
seven and five, eight and four at best type team
next year. How much is he worth on wind totals,
if anything? And how much would he be worth on

(01:46:00):
a point total for an average team like a Miami.
He's not moving the needle at all. I think he
just gives um some of that stability experience in championship
pedigree under center, but who knows if he's even gonna
actually win the job out of camp. I mean we
saw a similar scenario in full of years ago, not
with the national championship caliber quarterback, but whenever Golson left
Notre Dame, went down to Florida State, was given the

(01:46:22):
job and never really performed to a high level. You
mentioned mediocrity, and I think that Miami is kind of
the poster child for that, But the entire Coastal Division
may fall into that particular bucket. So it's gonna be
very interesting to see how where a lot of these
talents signal callers ultimately end up. We know Justin Fields
headed to Ohio State. Uh, and it's still Clemson in Alabama.
When you look at the odds to win the National

(01:46:43):
Championship play I think everybody's just kind of playing for
third and fourth place, all right, So let's go into
the divisional round NFL playoff games this weekend. You are
a professional gambler. When you see that fifteen different NFL games,
the last fifteen that fourteen time is the underdog has one.
Does that make you feel like the market is getting

(01:47:04):
something fundamentally wrong in setting these numbers, is it a
total aberration? How do you deal with fourteen and one
the underdogs against the number in the last fifteen I
think it's more anomaly than anything else. When you look
at the way the playoff games have unfolded over the
last you know, fifteen games sample size that you mentioned
last postseason underdogs going ten and one, uh and the

(01:47:27):
eleven games we saw that mattered most. Ultimately, if you
believe in an efficient market, you will see some regression.
But I think the public is latched on to those
betting trends. You look at the four games that are
going to be played this weekend, in the public backing
every single underdog, which if we had this discussion as
recently as three to five years ago, I think would
have been something mind boggling to me. And then if

(01:47:49):
we go one step further and we look at underdogs
of seven points or more in the divisional playoff round
play over the last twenty six games, we've seen those
teams go sixteen, eight and two. So you've seen pair
already start to reign. Supreme teams that come into this
round with a little bit of momentum and maybe ultimately
some firepower that allow them to stay inside the number.
But I wouldn't let that impact the way you're handicapping

(01:48:11):
is these football games Saturday and Sunday, one by one
kind of t Treat each one like it's in a vacuum.
If you have been to gravitate towards the underdog, great, uh.
If not, don't be afraid to lay the points as
a situation necessitates. If you had to pick one underdog
to pull off the upset and win outright, it would
be who for the divisional round of the playoffs? For me?
I actually, the more I poked around late last night,

(01:48:33):
I think Dallas would be the one underdog that I
would make a compelling case for, knowing that they have
the pieces offensively and Ezekiel Elliott to run against the
Rams defense that has struggled against ground and pound rushing
attacks throughout the course of the season, and a defense
right now that is the best roomy points per game
standpoint in the yards per game allowed of any of
the eight remaining playoff teams capable of stymying Jared Goffin

(01:48:56):
and offense that other than the last two games against
the Rams and forty nine look pretty pedestrian down the stretch,
Especially since Todd Gurley's effectiveness was limited and Cooper Cup
was lost for the season, Dallas could have a little
home field advantage. In my opinion, working for them at
the College Seum, I think the Cowboys would be the
underdog most capable of pulling off the alright upset? What
about in terms of over unders and everything else in

(01:49:19):
these games? Do you lean towards the under? Do you
lean towards the over? How do you play these games?
Especially because it seems like defenses have remerged, emerged back ascendant.
After all the attention that fifty one game got, it
doesn't really feel like like the NFL in this postseason
is any different than the NFL in the postseason has

(01:49:41):
been the last fifteen or twenty years. Well, I think
things could change a little bit this weekend. You have
some of the most explosive offenses in the league, uh
in the Saints, in the Chiefs and then the Rams
in New England, all block playing football games that weren't
on display last weekend. And you have the experienced quarterbacks
you need to be able to put up point. We've
seen how quarterbacks making their playoff debut have struggled. We'll

(01:50:04):
see if Patrick Mahomes can kind of shed that particular
underachiever tag that we've grown accustomed to from that particular position.
But if I'm looking at totals, I think the Chargers
in New England, game that's gonna be played in temperatures
most likely in the high twenties, could be a little
bit more defensive mind than anybody wants to give him
credit for. I know you chronicled how well this Chargers
defense has performed, not necessarily just in recent weeks, but

(01:50:26):
all season long, and the credit that they haven't rightfully received,
knowing that they have a talented pass rush and Joey
boast in Melvin Ingram a secondary more than capable of
handling its own. Philadelphia New Orleans, for me, I think
could be the most wide open football game you dig into. Philadelphia.
You have some major question marks about that secondary and
the one thing that the Eagles offense will have working

(01:50:47):
in their favor, Nick Foles over the last month has
had one of the quickest release from snap to getting
a ball out of his hands at less than two
and a half seconds than any quarterback. He's gonna need
that in hostile territory and a Saints pass rush more
than capable of making his life difficult, that would be
the game. I think that could be the highest scoring
and I could see why people want to go over
the total of fifty and a half fifty one. When

(01:51:07):
you look at at the overall odds to win the
Super Bowl, do you agree that the Saints should be
a prohibitive favorite right now? Regardless of what might I mean?
Obviously we know there are eight point favorites over the Eagles.
You shared that number about how teams have favored by
over a touchdown have done, and if they would get
the Rams or the Cowboys, they would be a substantial

(01:51:29):
favorite over that team as well. Are the Saints the
prohibitive favorite in the NFC? They are when you look
at how well they've performed in home games since Drew
Brees took over that franchise five and oh in that
particular spot, averaging more than thirty five points per game.
And that's one of the more electric environments you're going
to find in the NFL, especially this time of year.

(01:51:49):
You have to go all the way back, too, with
Bobby A. Bear as the starting quarterback to find the
last time the Saints lost a home playoff game. Now,
of course they didn't play a ton of them from
when Bobby Abert lost that game until Drew Brees took over.
But I like what they have defensively. I love their
veteran leadership and Clay who can argue with a head
coach that brings the Lombardi Trophy into the locker room,
brings in two dollars in cash to try and motivate

(01:52:12):
his team. And let me tell a lot of listeners,
two hundred thousand dollars in cash. It's not this major
duffel bag. You could probably grab that with two handfuls.
But apparently it's a motivational tactic that Seohn Payton is
choosing to employ. And I don't think the New Orleans
Saints will be complacent knowing that they beat this team
by forty one points no more than two months ago.
All right, let's go and say that the Colts pull
off the upset and the Chargers pull off the upset.

(01:52:35):
If that works to occur, then then that then the
a f C Championship game would theoretically be played in
a soccer stadium in l A. What would the line
look like in a game between Chargers and the Colts
in l A. You'd be looking at the Chargers right
around a three to three and a half point favorite
in that particular football game. But well, what's interesting in that,

(01:52:56):
and I haven't done any research the contingency plan originally
put in place, is that they almost wanted the Chargers
to play their game in the Colosseum because the NFL
said playing at the StubHub Center wouldn't be a large
enough venue for a game of that magnitude. So I'm
very curious to see how the NFL will elect to
handle it, because, as you mentioned, the seating capacity nowhere
close to what you've grown accustomed to. But you'll be

(01:53:17):
looking at the Charges right around that field goal threshold.
All right, good stuff, as always, Todd Ferman, You'll be
making picks with me on Lock it in four thirty Eastern,
three thirty Central to thirty Mountain one Pacific. Be honest,
are you surprised they haven't canceled our show yet? Hey,
I'm surprised they didn't cancel our show after about two
weeks of some of the comments coming out of your
mouth and cousin South, I gotta be the one that

(01:53:39):
keeps it on the street and narrow. Rachel has to
be the one to apologize. So every day we get
to go back on the air, I feel as a blessing.
I just want to make sure that you're gonna be
okay and the man crush that you have on James
Harden is going to be able to persevere through last
night's tumultuous outcome against the Buck. Yeah, that was tough.
I'm in I'm in deep shape, deep almost curse there.
I'm in trouble when it comes to trying to build

(01:54:02):
build my way back up to defend my crown. By
the way, if you were setting odds on Kyler Murray
going into the NFL draft right now, prohibitive favorite that
he does in fact announce, Oh for for sure. I
think it's a formality now you look at him going
through all of the policies and procedures he needs to
the fact. The opening said they expect him to declare

(01:54:22):
the bigger question. If I was going to set the
over under on where Kyler Murray got drafted at twelve
and a half, do you think he goes in the
top twelve picks or do you think he goes in
the latter stages of the first round. I don't think
he goes top twelve, but I do think he goes
in the first round, so I would go under on
twelve and a half. Good stuff, as always, Todd Ferman,
go follow him, watch him on television with me on
the walk It in this afternoon at four thirty Eastern

(01:54:46):
when we come back. My name is Clay Travis, and
we will close out with a little bit of Kyler
Murray talk. Also with a little bit of NFL Divisional
playoff round picks for you. I'm gonna give you some
early picks here as we roll into right A. This
is Fox Sports Radio. Welcome back, I go out Kick Studios,

(01:55:07):
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Wild wild scene in the Twitter mentions this this morning.
I can't even keep up ever since I put up

(01:55:29):
the poll question, would you advise Kyler Murray to go pro?
In Major League Baseball or the NFL? Uh? It's a
crazy result. Twenty five thousand of you have voted so
far during the first two hours this has been up
during the show, seventy percent of you advising him to
go to Major League Baseball of you advising him to

(01:55:49):
go to the NFL. If you're just waking up, we've
had a big discussion about it. Lots of people weighing in. UH,
I can just go into my verified mentions. Lots of
NFL players, lots of of UH, lots of Major League
Baseball players weighing in. Everybody's got an opinion on what
Kyler Murray should do. UH. My guy, David Nail, who
is a big time country music singer but also was

(01:56:12):
a baseball player UH back in the day, said he's
gonna start his baseball career in Stockton, California. The minor
leagues are tough and that five million will go fast.
I personally think he realizes how hard his road in
baseball will be. That's that Bryce Harper is twenty six
and he's about to make three and fifty million or more.
The numbers out there actually support Kyler Murray if he

(01:56:36):
can be a first round quarterback UH draft pick, that
he should go pro in the NFL. As opposed to
major league baseball because it actually gives him more guaranteed
money than he could make in baseball. A lot of
people out there think baseball is a safer option because
they tend to think of baseball is having more longevity,
but they're not factoring in the minor leagues or the

(01:56:58):
fact that only sixties percent of first round major league
draft picks ever make the major leagues and that only
forties six percent of first rounders ever make it three
plus years in major league baseball, Whereas if you are
a first round draft pick in the NFL, you're guaranteed
four years of salary and oftentimes the option on the

(01:57:21):
fifth year is picked up as well. Using Mariota and
Jamis Winston as examples, both of them have had their
fifth year options picked up. Both of them will make
over forty five million dollars in their first five years.
In his first five years in major league baseball, Kyler
Murray will make about four point eight million dollars. So

(01:57:43):
if he knew he would be drafted in the first round,
even if he went late in the first round like
Lamar Jackson, he would make infinitely more money in the NFL.
And if he were good enough to hit free agency
after his fifth year and be able to go to
the market, he potentially could make a hundred million dollars
in football before he's able to make even ten million

(01:58:07):
in baseball. So it's a really intriguing question. I tend
to think that the people voting in our poll have
gotten that one wrong. I'm gonna give you one pick
in the NFL Divisional Round. I will give you the
rest of my NFL Divisional round picks tomorrow. I went
four and oh if you got the final number for
the Seahawks on my picks in the wild card three

(01:58:31):
and oh if you got the early number on the Seahawks.
The Seahawks covered two and a half. They pushed on two.
My favorite pick this weekend is I think that the
Chargers are gonna win outright against the Patriots. I don't
think the Patriots are that good. They have five losses
this year, all two teams that have never made the playoffs, alright,

(01:58:54):
all five of their losses, two teams that did not
make the playoffs. That's the most losses. Two teams that
didn't make the playoffs in the Brady Belichick era prior
to this year, three is the most losses they've ever
had to non playoff teams in the Brady Belichick era,
and during this era they have averaged one point eight losses.

(01:59:14):
I think the Chargers are gonna go on the road
and win this one outright right now. They are a
four or a four and a half point underdog. So
hop on the Chargers right there if you want them
on the plus them points four or four and a half,
and I would sprinkle a little bit of money on
the Chargers money line here. I think they're gonna win

(01:59:35):
this game out right, I really do. I think the
Chargers are the better team. They've got the better defense.
I think they've got the better quarterback this year. This year,
Philip Rivers has been better than Tom Brady. I like
the running back situation. I like the wide receivers downfielled
passing threat infinitely more for the Chargers, and the Charger
since Week five have had the number one scoring defense

(01:59:58):
in the NFL. I think they go on the road,
low scoring game, brutal, bad weather conditions. I think the
Chargers win outright, twenty to seventeen. That's my prediction in
that game. Hop on it while you can We'll break
down the rest of the Divisional round playoff games tomorrow.
Loaded show coming your way. Thanks for starting your morning
with US. I am Clay Travis. This is out kicked.

(02:00:20):
The coverage on Fox Sports Radio. Have great Thursdays.

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