January 11, 2019 • 41 mins
RJ Bell and the Straight Outta Vegas crew break down each divisional playoff match up and share all of the crucial information that matters most to the sharps in Vegas, the guys tell you what the Vegas market is telling you about key players and why it matters to the point spread, and the guys make their best bets of the weekend!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports. This is straight out of
Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your host r J Bow,
collect the pregame show America has always wanted from the
(00:40):
Vegas Trip. Here's r J Bow. You heard it. I'm
r J Live Coast to coast, six o'clock Eastern, three
o'clock here in Vegas, Action packed special hour for your Friday.
Every Friday during the football season, it's Pick Palooza. That
means picks, picks and more picks. But this is special.
(01:03):
We got the four biggest football games of the week,
the four that's gonna get us down to the final four,
and we're gonna break down each game in depth and
then at the end of the hour get my best bat,
Physic's best bat, Brad Power's best bat, and even Jonas
(01:23):
he's two and two. I think I don't think he's
had a pick for about three months. He's coming out strong.
He likes something in that Saints Philly game. Also joined,
as we said by physic NFL expert Brad Powers, all
the college knowledge sports batters listening for the money sports
fans listen to no more than their buddies. My personal
(01:47):
promise we will deliver the Vegas truth to you. But
you can't have pros without Joe's he is Joan is
not always good to be here r J on the
Friday before divisional play off weekend in the NFL. So
let's waste no time and let's get it started. We
go to the a f C, in particular Kansas City, Saturday,
(02:09):
four thirty five pm Eastern time. The Chiefs on pregame
dot com right now are a five point favorite hosting
the Colts. So here's what we're gonna do. We're going
around the wise Guy round table. If you listen to
the podcast, you're familiar going to Fasik first, gonna get
his pick on the game, and then his number one factor,
(02:30):
then Brad than me Fez. Let's start. What's your pick?
What's your number one factor? Coach Chiefs? I like the Cults.
They're my pick plus five and number one factor. I
can make the case that the Cults are playing the
best football throughout the NFL. They're on a ten one
straight up run. But what's more impressive is not only
(02:51):
are they ten and one, but they are number one
in the league in point differential has so it hasn't
been a bunch of close wins. All right, So let's
define point differential how many points the Colts have scored,
how many points the opponents have scored, And that difference
is more than any other difference the other thirty one
teams during this eleven games span. So that shows you
(03:13):
because sometimes Houston this year was an example one a
bunch of close games. Their record was good, but their
point differential wasn't considering their record, and that's a sign
this may be a lucky team. The fact the Colts
have the best point differential says a great record, and
they've been winning most of these games handily. Correct. So
(03:35):
and in fact, the one game they lost was a
close lost against Jacksonville. Okay, so you gave the Colts
as an early best bat on Tuesday, and you've been
killing that early best bat. You're still with them. Now.
You're gonna give another best bat at the end of
the show, at the end of the six six o'clock
Eastern hour. But this is your best bet from Tuesday.
(03:55):
You're sticking with it. You like the Colts now, you know.
Let's actually you think a minute about why they've been
playing better because to me and I've been in Vegas. Actually,
next week will be twenty one years in Vegas. Very
youthful looking though for that, but it's true twenty one years.
And I'm always worried. I'm always I took a train,
(04:21):
took it was hitshiking train kind of going Dylan went
from Minnesota to New York City. Okay, I'm always worried
about arbitrary start points, right as in oh, the last
four games were the last two and a half quarters,
or if you don't count that first half because it
was a ten am start. So fez make the case
(04:43):
why the eleven games is more meaningful within the sixteen
because if you look at the whole sixteen games the
entire season, you don't think the Colts are better than
Casey for the season, right, So why are the eleven
games more applicable? Because Drew Luck got healthy during the
course of the season. Back in September, his shoulder just
(05:04):
wasn't right. We saw he wasn't able to throw the
ball downfield. Hey, we gotta bring in Jacoby Brissette to
throw a hell Mary because Luck can't throw it more
than fifty yards. Early in October, that started to change.
By the end of the year, Lux arm strength had
really improved. And you have an amazing stat with Luck.
If you look at every game September, October, November, he
(05:24):
never once Andrew Luck ran the ball more than five times,
so he wasn't running the ball. There's been five games
since December. In those five games, four of the five
he ran the ball over five times. So for three
months it never happens. And now of the games the
last five, Andrew Lux running more in the mobile quarterback
(05:47):
is a sign of health, his willingness to run Andrew Luck,
but also is a sign of danger for the opposing
defense in the playoffs because running quarterbacks in the playoffs
are more inclined to run, and they're very successful. We've
certainly seen Russell Wilson and we've seen Aaron Rodgers accomplished
that over the years. I'm r J. Bell straight out
(06:09):
of Vegas, breaking down each of the four NFL games.
First game coach Chiefs, wrapping up with Steve Fezik. He
likes an early best bet actually on Tuesday, and he
still likes the Colts in this game. Also why eleven
games matter ten and one last eleven the defensive scheme.
They had a new coach, new defense. We had great,
(06:30):
Great Coast on a couple of weeks ago, straight out
of Vegas. He said, hey, after that one in five Star,
this was a team that changed up some scheme stuff defensively,
and they played so much better after that. And I
think lastly, another reason there's eleven games are meaningful for
the Colts more than the sixteen full season is the
number of rookies. When you have key contributors that are rookies,
(06:53):
they tend to trend up more than other players throughout
the season. And we've seen that for sure, Fez Sing
there's a subset within the Colts eleven games that's even
more impressive. There's seven games that they played even better. Explained. Yes,
in those seven games when Luck had his center and
(07:13):
his left tackle and they both started seven games, he
was not sacked once throughout the year, tremendous pass blocking,
seven games without a sack. When these conditions are met,
and they're met for this game, correct, that's the physic
This is straight out of Vegas. Next up, same thing,
Brad Powers. Tell me who you like and the number
(07:33):
one reason why like Indianapolis for me. But my number
one factor is considering the other team in his opponent
Kansas City, who was not the same team down the stretch.
Kansas City only one cover in their last seven games.
Why why was the chief Why were the Chiefs struggling
down the stretch? Two reasons. Number one the loss of
Kaream Hunt, a big time playmaker out of the backfield,
(07:56):
running and receiving. And number two, this is more traditionally
a about their head coach Andy Reid. More often than not,
the league tends to catch up with his different schemes
throughout the course of the season. I like Indianapolis. Yeah,
think of Alex Smith. Last year, even Alex Smith looked amazing.
Give Andy Read a bunch of credit. That changes this
season progressive now Mahomes clearly better than Alex Smith. But
(08:20):
still I think we might be seeing some of that phenomenon.
I'm r J. Bell straight out of Vegas. My pick
also colds like it. We're all three on the Colds.
To me, it's a master trend. This is kind of
a game changing trend. Pregame dot Com research pool this
one out. This is original. Guys. We looked at all
(08:41):
thirty two starting quarterbacks and we said, find me the
first playoffs start. I like to call it the virgin
start in the playoffs. Now, some quarterbacks haven't played in
the playoffs, so there's still virgins. We don't have any
numbers on them. Also, there's times it was virgin I
against virgin We know all about that. We threw those out, okay,
(09:06):
So what's left is a virgin quarterback in his first
start against a experienced non virgin quarterback. Twenty times that's
happened with these quarterbacks in the NFL currently, starting the
virgin quarterback is two winners, seventeen losers, and one push
against the spread. So all the other factors, Oh, rookies
(09:29):
usually aren't gonna win, blah blah blah whatever, and it's rookies,
or it could be later that your virgin start is
all that's considered. The spread considers it. And still Mahomes
obviously applies here. First start, he's in a two seventeen
and one against the spread situation. That's not good for
(09:51):
those keeping scored home. Another reason I think fake Casey
like the Coats. That's two quick questions. I don't love
this game. I just like it. Number one, ton of
injuries on the Colts defense. How concerned are you? I'm
not that concerned because frankly, these guys have been showing
up on the injury report the last couple of weeks,
and I haven't seen any issues with the Colts defense
(10:14):
here week seventeen, and of course in the playoffs lastly,
third straight road game for the Colts. They had a
must win Week seventeen at Tennessee, must win obviously first
round the playoffs at Houston. Now on the road a
third time, yeah, certainly a concern. But the one thing
that would mitigate that is it was such an easy,
easy wins for them at Tennessee and at Houston. They
lead that Houston and you, well, I know you disagree.
(10:39):
Now I'm having my say. And the reason, no, I'm right.
It's like, oh, you think you're right. Huh Okay, that's
a surprise then. But here's the thing. It's not so
much playing the game itself. It's all the preparation, It's
all the intensity, it's all the anxiety. It's been on
that plane known if you make one mistake your you
(11:00):
know your season could end. And I think that having
six third straight must win game when Kansas City hasn't
had an intense game for how long? Right? I mean
they beat the Raiders in week seventeen. I think you
could say Casey's rusty maybe, But to me, it's more
about that the Colts are a little bit tired. If
(11:21):
it wasn't for that, I would love the Colts even so.
I like the Colts. FeAs likes the Coats. Brad likes
the Colts. After Saturday's game between the Colts and Chief
Saturday night at the Colosseum on Foxes, the Cowboys and
the Rams right now l a a seven and a
half point favorite over Dallas. Alright, same thing, Fazz, who
do you like? And number one factor? Yeah, I leaned
(11:43):
to Dallas. I really just the lean, just the lean.
I think the number one factors. I really think there's
a good chance Dallas can shorten this game with a
matchup advantage by running the ball Dallas. We all know
Zeke Elliott runs the ball well. Dallas games four and
f yards per rush. That's above the NFL bridge, but
the Ramsey is actually last in the NFL. They give
(12:03):
up over five yards per rush. If Dallas can have
long drives, time consuming drives, they can shorten this game,
and it becomes the way are we supposed to act?
Like the Rams offense is some kind of like jogger,
not Oh, Jared Goff is coming, say put the choulder
in a way. I mean, what the heck? What are
we scared of? Well, the Rams could well have a
(12:26):
very successful day offensively here. I mean, it sounds like
like someone in a parole hearing. It's like, it's very
possible with this four time loser could now not break
the law again. That didn't sound very convinced. What have
the Rams done in the last six weeks, even two
months after the Kansas City game? What have the Rams
done that would make you think we better shorten this game?
(12:48):
The Rams have struggled offensively, I agree, So why are
you saying what you're girly was not a dent in
the playoffs? You think it's percent? Now, we don't know that.
We don't think so. So this line assumes he's it does.
So why not like the Cowboys? What's stopping you from
liking the Cowboys? Everything you've said, Brad, everything he said
(13:09):
sounds like he likes the Cowboys, But instead he goes, Eileen, Lean,
why gut feel you're just scared? I'm scared. Maybe I
got that ticket on the ramps to win the Super Bowl,
and it's biasing the r J from back in September.
Why would that bias you shouldn't, But why how could
it even conceptually buyas you it shouldn't. So you just
(13:32):
said it might be something that makes no sense. It
would be. But I'll tell you this. I actually, you
know if you read Malcolm Gladwell's Blink, what it talks
about is the idea that we all have gut instincts
that are instant, and it's our whole history that leads
to that instinct and we don't know consciously why sometimes,
but you got to trust the instinct. Doesn't mean you
(13:54):
do it blind. But if you've got a feeling this
doesn't feel right, even if you can't explain ain't it,
it's valid to react to that feeling because it's your
subconscious telling you something. And we know fezes subconscious as
a winner because he has a mansion and he has
a yacht. When we come back, we're going to continue
in this RAMS game. I actually like it more. And
(14:16):
you're gonna get my pick in the Rams Cowboys game
that's coming up next to hes r J bell On
Jonas Knox is the pregame show you always wanted right
here on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell Straight out of
(14:38):
Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks Voice of You the Fan
coming up here in just a moment, we will get
back into the Cowboys and the Rams coming up on
Saturday night. Each day, we have fun bringing the fun
of Vegas straight to you right now on the Strip.
Sixty degrees, yes, January sixty degrees here, baby, and the
neon is flowing from the Strip, Vegas back to the
(15:00):
Colosseum in l A. We go the Rams minus seven
and a half hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, seven's out there.
Seven and a half. Seven is the key number, the
second key number in the NFL three most margin of victory,
most common margin of victory in the NFL three, Seven
is number two. So, boy, if you're gonna lay it,
(15:21):
lay a seven. If you're gonna take it, take the
seven and a half, fests says he Leans Leans leans
only on Dallas, and when asked why, he said, I
don't know just and then he started patting his stomach
and you might think that's goofy right or is he hungry. No,
he's saying, I've been doing his twenty plus years. I
(15:42):
haven't had a straight job since nine and I know
my stuff and my stomach says be careful with Dallas.
That does worry me. But he still leans that way. Brad,
you think it's a tight one too. You don't really
have a strong opinion, but you've got a big factor
that's programs and one that's anti Rams. Yeah, torn on
(16:02):
this one. R J. The pro factor why I would
lean with the Rams, it's Jared Goff. Much better quarterback
at home this entire season, twenty two touchdowns, only three interceptions.
On the road, very average quarterback Jared Goff ten touchdowns,
nine picks. But here's what's concerned. Concerns me with the
Rams against winning teams zero covers zero in their last
(16:25):
seven games against winning teams zero five and two against
the number. So you're saying, and that's an interesting way
to think about handicapping. Some teams play really well against
bad teams and they run it up. Other teams will
play up or down to the competition, And what you're
saying is when the Rams played a team that was
simply nine, nine and seven or batter. Ultimately, at the
(16:47):
end of the year, if you look back at those games,
the last seven of them, the Rams did not cover
one time. Nope, zero covers. Is you're what you're got
telling you? Yeah, my God says that that's a very
good factor, especially because what how did the Rams end
a really nice win against Arizona, really nice win against
San Francisco not exactly playoff teams there, that's the physic
(17:12):
and marj bel straight out of Vegas. Now my take
fez Lean's Dallas Brad says, pass I like Dallas here
and here's why. Imagine if the season were flipped and
the first half of the first eight games were the
last eight games and vice versa. So what the Rams
(17:33):
did the last eight weeks would have led the season off.
How different would the narrative be? And we have fun
with Fez on this one. But three weeks into the year,
the Rams were plus two fifty to win the Super
Bowl and literally no team at that point of the
season in the last decade ten years had been that
(17:56):
big of a favorite. The Rams relative to the competition,
were or than any of those ballot checked teams, any
team in the last decade, seems absurd. Somehow, Fez was
just smiling. He was all happy because he had a
Rams ticket in his pocket at six to one. But
here's the question. A couple of weeks before the season
even started, the Rams were thirteen to one, and then
(18:20):
everyone started saying, well, wait a minute, that Peters. That's
that guy that was real good with Kansas City, right
and to leave. I've seen him in some Super Bowls.
They were looking at like a rotisserie team or something,
and they said, well, if they have a great offensive, Rams,
they have a great defense. Well great plus great equals great.
Is that a fair representation of your analysis? Fest? It's
close enough, all right, but this is at metting it.
(18:43):
So now the question is are the Rams great on offense? No?
Are the Rams greade on defense? No? In fact, they're
the worst team against the rush in the NFL yards
per carry. And I'm telling you this. Zeke Elliott can
run the ball, buddy. And we talked about mobile cole
trter backs Doc. It's very effective when quarterbacks are willing
(19:04):
to run. Doc is the most mobile quarterback in the NFL.
What percentage of the crowd is going to be rooting
for Dallas in this quote unquote home game at least
I think more, Collins said, And we did our podcast already.
It's out tomorrow morning. You can get it on my Twitter,
me and Colin breaking down a pick on every one
(19:25):
of these games at r J in Vegas on Twitter
to get the Calling cow Herd pod with me fest. Yes,
ticket service Vivid Seats is currently projecting Rams fans, but
I think this is misleading because this is by zip
codes and the like, because I think that thtent Cowboys
fans is gonna be a whole lot louder and a
whole lot more passionate. Yeah, I've never heard this Vivid.
(19:47):
Whatever we'll see, I gotta feel it's gonna be more
towards fifty. But either way, it's gonna be less home
field advantage than you would expect. Last thing, Girly's health. Now,
Dallas has a pretty good rushdie fence. Another example of
a pretty good rush defense the Saints. When the Rams
played the Saints, and this was in New Orleans, so
(20:09):
you would expect the Rams they were underdogs, might not
be able to run as much as they'd want. The
over under for rush yards Vegas set for Girly was
like ninety six. Now Girly over under rush yards against
Dallas fast and a half. So think about this about
the same quality d wouldn't you agreed, Dallas against the run,
(20:31):
Saints against the run. If anything, Saints are a little better,
but close. Let's call it. On one hand, the over
under for rush yards for Gurley when he's healthy is
almost a hunter. And now it's below eighty. The Vegas
market is telling you. Doesn't mean it's true, but the
Vegas market believes Girle is not a Now I'm not
(20:55):
betting Dallas on the spread. What I'll tell you is
on my best beat. This game is involved, and we've
got a professional way, a superior way to bet this
Dallas game. From the l A Rams to the l
A Chargers, we go. The Chargers are in New England
to take on the Patriots. This is the Sunday one
oh five Eastern time kickoff New England. A four point
(21:17):
favorite on pregame dot com. You know some of these
Vegas shows and they're all popping up, you know, in
local markets, and they've been here for a long time.
It literally they calm jonas a rundown show where they
open the schedule up and it's like, okay, next up,
townsend State off a loss, and it's like I just
(21:37):
think something home now, who's listening to this? But I
gotta admit there's a certain purity to just running down
these games when appropriate that I enjoyed. No sex, no booze,
no drugs. Little Roller is a purest. He's a girl bread.
All he cares about is the next hand. Well, here's
(22:00):
the next game, as your purest. Let's be honest. Who
do you like and why? Yeah? I like New England.
Here it's all about the horrible travel spot for the
Chargers is my number one factor. Week seventeen of the
regular season. They travel to altitude at Denver, then they
come back to Los Angeles and then playoff game at Baltimore,
(22:20):
all the way across the country. Then they don't stay
on in the East Coast. They fly back to l A.
And now they're flying to Boston. That is a whole
lot of travel, ten thousand miles during those trips, and
during that time, Bill Belichick has traveled from his bedroom
to his office and film room that triangle, because literally,
Week sixteen home double dis, your favorites Bills win easily.
(22:44):
Week seventeen home double dis, your favorite Jets win easily.
Then a bye, I would make the case. This is
the most disparate rest situation I've ever seen in the NFL.
I mean maybe I don't. I don't remember another one
where the Patriots are about as rested as a team
(23:05):
can be. And oh, by the way, the Chargers three
in a row, four out of five on the road.
Also so road home, road, road road across the country
another ten am start. Wow. So I think it's both
the fatigue of the Chargers and the rest of the
(23:25):
paths that contrast is the key. Yes, And that physical
fatigue might just translate to more fatigue due to the
weather twenty six degrees here in Boston and a team
from Los Angeles. So when you say here in Boston,
are you mentally at Foxboro right now? Or I am
after I bet the Patriots. It reminds me of the
great line with Cramer. He was moving to California. He
(23:48):
tells everyone, Jerry and everyone, and they said, so Cramer,
when you leave into California, you know when you get
into California. He goes, in my mind, I'm already there,
So I don't you know you can aimer? I see it.
I'm R J Bow straight out of Vegas. Okay, Brad,
same thing. Who do you like in this game? Why
like New England for me? On top of the travel factor,
(24:10):
let's talk about New England at home. They've been at
home the last month. New England at home this year?
The best, the best team in the NFL, perfect eight
and l number one in the NFL, out scoring their
opponents by sixteen points per game. Not by the way,
just because straight up eight now eight, No, straight up,
I'll scoring their opponents by more than two touchdowns per game,
(24:30):
out gaining their opponents number one in the NFL, by
a hundred and eleven yards per game. So Brett, I
would play devil's advocate. I think you're probably right. The
Pats are the best home team in the NFL this year.
But who's the best road team? The Chargers. So doesn't
I kind of weigh out? It does weigh out a
little bit. The line saying it's weighing out, but I'm
not saying there's not other factors. But I do think
(24:52):
if anything, you can mitigate that that that Chargers or
road Warriors factor because you do have the probably the
best home team in the NFL. And what I would
say also research from pregame dot com research. Mackie headed
this one up associate producer here. He does his calisthenics
and stuff during the show too, but I don't think
(25:12):
he gets credit necessarily for that. This is interesting. In
the last seven games the Belichick's had the bye in
the division round. Okay, they have won the games or
six and one against the spread in those games, but
they've won the games by over sixteen points a game,
so six and one against the spread. They lost the
(25:34):
Ravens only one they lost too in that time, and
when you're winning playoff games by sixteen points, I think
we see Belichick for sure taking advantage of the bye
against the team that played the week before. In just
one minute, you're gonna get my pick on the Patriots
game that's coming up next. But for all the latest
(25:55):
from around the world of sports, some coaching news in
the NFL, nothing official yet at the Dolphins are reportedly
focused on making Patriots linebackers coach Brian Floras their head coach.
That from the NFL Network. Of course, the deal can't
be done until the Patriots season is over. Gary Kubiak
won't be joining the Broncos staff under Vic Fangio as
their offensive coordinator. ESPN says the sides just couldn't come
(26:17):
together on staffing and offensive philosophies. Packers defensive coordinator Mike
Petton will return under new head coach Matt Lafleur. Well
Marty morning Way to shouting to leave the Ravens organization
after he was replaced as the team's offensive coordinator by
Greg Roman earlier today. Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts is visiting
Maryland today and will also visit the University of Miami
(26:37):
on Sunday. According to Keene sport dot com, Alabama defensive
I mean Quinnon Williams is leaving school early to enter
the NFL draft. Bucks forward jannat tea compo out tonight
against the war the Wizards. That is, he has a
hip injury. Dodgers acquired catcher Russell Martin in a trade
with the Blue Jays today and Astros third basement Alex
Bregman underwent surgery on his elbow to remove loose particles,
(26:58):
but should be ready for opening. Back to you, guys.
Thanks stands straight out of Vegas. Here Fox Sports Radio
coming up in about twelve minutes from now here on
fs ARE, we will have best bets as we head
into a busy weekend in the NFL. I'm Jonas Knocks,
the voice of you the fan. He is the voice
of Vegas. R J. Bell. Yeah, I gotta tell you, Jonas,
I love this right. When you get a chance to
(27:19):
spend quadruple the time on each game, you find those
nuggets that the average handicapper, the average sports media guy,
they don't have. So we always say at the beginning
of the show, sports bettors listen for the money sports fans,
and about half our listeners don't even bet to know
more than their buddies. I think we're delivering to that definitely,
(27:40):
And so let's get back into it. Guys. Where we
were talking. Patriots Chargers still sitting at Patriots minus four
currently on pregame dot Com. All right, Fasik, you like
New England your main reason? Chargers travel four five road games,
a lot of miles travel ten am start body clockwise,
Brad said, Hey, Pats are really good at home. I
(28:02):
like the Pats actually eight oh this year, fifteen straight
home game wins for the Patriots, twelve and three against
the spread in those games. Brad also likes the Pats.
We're gonna have our best bets here in about ten minutes.
I like the Pats too. And here's why. I think
(28:24):
there's something wrong with the Chargers offense. And I think
there's something wrong, perhaps with the health of the quarterback.
You know, there's always that shot put shot put through.
It just looks worse. That's one thing to have. The
eye test, all right. You can pat your belly, you
can point to your eyes, but I like to have dada.
(28:48):
Last five games, the Chargers have gained two yards per
game on average across the season. That would be number
thirty one in the NFL. Now we can say, and
let's give credit, or let's at least acknowledge. They played
the Ravens twice during that time, a really good defense,
(29:11):
but still two yards. It feels like there's something wrong.
Are you seeing anything with your eyes? Oh? Very much so.
And when we saw them beat ball very much, what
are you seeing? I am seeing Rivers. You mentioned it.
He always throws a little bit of a shot put motion,
but it just looks awkward, like he's releasing the ball quickly,
but he doesn't have the zip. He doesn't have the
(29:32):
fastball that he had earlier in the year. And I wonder, also,
r J, what's the most physical defense in the NFL,
either the Bears or Baltimore. Having to play Baltimore two
of the last three weeks, is that going to have
a lasting impact on That's a good point right there.
Physic No wonder you won that Super contest twice. That's
a good point. And then also Belichick has certain guys
(29:55):
number well against Rivers. Eight times they've played one in
seven straight up. By the way, Rivers is, by the way,
the only time he beat Belichick with Castle at quarterback,
but in his entire career in those eight games, ten
touchdowns for Rivers, ten interceptions. When you have a borderline
Hall of Famer playing half a season against one coach
(30:19):
and he's ten and ten TV interceptions, it's a sign
perhaps Belichick has his number. Perhaps there's something wrong physically
with Rivers, or something else about that Chargers offense doesn't
seem right. Lastly, if there's one thing you can say
that's a concern about the Pats it's gonna be Brady's age, right,
(30:41):
and the whole team is kind of oh little slow boy.
All of this rest. I think it benefits the Pats
more than any team, any team, because they really have
not only had the week off, but some home games
they were double digit favorites and physic lights the Pats.
Brad Powers likes the Pats. I like the Pats. As
we transition to the Eagles and the Saints, which is
(31:04):
the weekend Caper four forty Eastern time on Sunday on Fox,
I wanted to throw this quote from a Saint's head
coach Sean Payton at you are j and the guys
in Vegas. Sean Payton and talking about home field advantage,
he said, quote, not too long ago here, it wasn't
too tough of a place to play when we were struggling.
I think part of that is what kind of team
you're fielding, and when you get the combinations of a
(31:25):
good team and then the crowd noise, and then you
have something I think a lot has to do with
the talent level of your football team. End quote. What
is the Vegas takeaway of Sean Payton's assessment of home
field and Belichick said something similar home field. Right, Yeah,
Belichick's pointed out that last week three teams one on
the road. So here's what there you go. Here's what
(31:47):
I would say. Belichick is telling you not what he
thinks is the truth, but what he thinks is going
to help him win a game. Right. So I would never, ever,
ever disagree with Bill Belichick a about football. All right,
So let's start there. That said, it's easy to look
at the numbers in the playoffs. At the time the
(32:09):
home team wins, and they win by an average of
four point seven points a game, so almost five points
a game. Now, skeptics out there you might say, well,
wait a minute, r J. The home teams the better
team a majority of the time, they should win. Well, yeah,
but if the teams were even, home field in the
regular season is three typically, and if you look at
(32:30):
the numbers, home teams win by about three. The fact
it's four point seven points a game advantage for the
home team reinforces its home field. Plus the teams are
better the home teams oftentimes. So to me, the numbers
tell you for sure that home is a big advantage.
Would you rather win percent at the time or thirty
(32:54):
seven percent at the time, home teams win sixty three.
So let's take a closer look at the matchup between
the Eagles and Saints this Sunday. We're right now on
pregame dot com. New Orleans is an eight point favorite.
Sean Paynton said something very salient to the Saints, which
is their home field when they're winning, is one of
(33:15):
the best, if not the best, in the NFL Seattle,
Green Bay, New Orleans when the Saints are winning. When
the Saints aren't winning, it does drop off. Why because
the noise of the dome is one of the big
advantages in Green Bay. The noise isn't a big advantage.
Is the uniqueness of that slick surface, that grass. That's
I think is the driver. So he's right. But obviously
(33:39):
in a playoff game, you gotta feel pretty good about
the Saints. Fez, who do you like? What's your number
one factor? I leaned to the Saints, and it's all
about the Eagles travel. I really don't like the fact
fifth road game the last six weeks, third road game
in a row, and also not just road games, r J.
This is their fourth rate must win or you're done game.
(34:03):
How much energy does this team have left. Why don't
you like it? You know, Foles is playing incredibly best
passer rating in playoff history. Nick Foles don't want to
step in front of the Foals freight train. Forget Remember
what was that on Tin Cop when he's going, step
aside Nicholas, step aside Tom Watson. There's a guy named
(34:26):
Mcaroy has got your name. Well, step beside Joe Montana.
Nick Foles best passer in playoff history. So what you're
saying is really that everything points to the Saints, but
you're scared to bet against Nick Foles. I am. I
talked about how he didn't look good in preseason. I
(34:47):
think we're way past preseason. How many times does he
have to put up a QBR game after game around
seventy five, which puts him in the top quartile on
one game throughout the league. But you stack all these together,
he's playing like the third best quarterback in the league.
So Physic leans with the Saints. When we come back,
you're gonna get my pick on the Saints and my
(35:08):
best bat. Physic's best bet, Brad's best bet, and yes,
Jonas is best bet. He's r J Bell on Jonas
Knocks is at the pregame show you Always wanted and
it's money making time next here on Fox Sports Radio.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. I'm
(35:29):
r J. Bell, We're Straight out of Vegas, and I'm
Jonas Knock's voice of you the fan. Let's get back
into it, guys, as we finish up here. It is
the Eagles and the Saints right now on pregame dot Com.
The Saints still an eight point favorite hosting Philadelphia, so
physic two. Tim Hilton Super Contest champion only got to
do that, said, I lean Saints, but I'm scared to
(35:51):
Nick Foles. I think it's a reasonable position to have
Brad same thing, Lean Saints, right, Lean Saints. Okay, Oh,
have you done your handicap on giving the number one? Yeah? All,
let's talk about Nick Foles. Let's talk about the other
side of the ball for Philadelphia. What really has changed
for Philadelphia since they allowed forty eight points to the
(36:14):
Saints just a few weeks ago. I'd argue not much.
The Eagles took advantage of Washington team playing a couple
backup quarterbacks Chicago took couldn't take advantage. Houston certainly took
advantage of Philadelphia's defense, and so did the Cowboys with
thirteen different starters in that secondary this year, I don't
see how the Eagles stopped the Saints here, and I
(36:34):
think you're right. Everyone was saying the Saints or I'm sorry,
this Eagles team is dead because their d backs are
so bad. Breeze put up forty eight, But if you
look at the quarterbacks as Brad Powers just ticked off,
other than Watson, who they gave up thirty points to,
not great quarterbacks. So I think that problem in the
Eagles secondary still there. It hasn't been exploited. You might
(36:56):
question the Saints when it comes to their offense later
in the year, but that was on the road last
five home games for the Saints. When Breeze plays, here's
the point. Totalt one thirty one forty three doesn't sound
like a problem at all on offense for the Saints.
(37:18):
So let me look at this. You know something, I'm
gonna hold my I was gonna do my best bet
on a parlay. I'm gonna I'm gonna call an audible
Jonas I'm gonna give my best bet. Now, forget the
best time to bat. I'm just gonna win, all right.
Here's my audible best bet, R J. Bell over twenty
(37:39):
nine and a half points for the Saints. So you
can do team totals and pretty much any book. He's
gonna let you do this if not shop around legally,
of course, over twenty nine and a half points. Now.
Fest said I'm scared of Nick Foles. Some might laugh
at that. I my guess is tens of thousands laughed
(38:00):
across the country at youths. But all that said, they
were wrong because I'm kind of scared of Nick Foles too,
just in a more manly way, I think. And to me,
I don't want to get involved with Nick Foles in
his magic. What I want is the Saints offense against
the Philly defense, because what else does Philly have to offer.
(38:21):
Philly has to offer a great pass rush. Well, who's
got a great old line and who gets rid of
the ball quicker than anyone. So the Saints team is
built to to to exploit the Eagles. Why because the
big pass rush doesn't really matter for the Eagles that much.
With Breeze and oh the d Backs are terrible. Let's
forget fos over twenty nine and a half of the
(38:43):
Saints best better the week. I love it, and I
love the fact Nick Foles as a gun slinger. You
might get a pick six and he may throw three
touchdown passes and one pick six interception as well. How
could the best passer rating in the history of the
playoffs throw a pick six? Guys? Come on, hey, Jonas,
you like this one too? Yeah? I like New Orleans
minus the eight. Everyone's over hyping Nick Foles from a
(39:03):
week ago. He had two awful interceptions. You can make
the case in a lot of spots in that game
he was outplayed by Mitch Drabinsky. Drabinsky found a lot
of holes in that second area, especially in the second half.
Allen Robinson went for ten catches and over a hundred yards.
He dominated in that second half. Josh Bellamy had a
big reception in that second half. None of those guys
are starters. Probably on the New Orleans Saints, I think
(39:26):
Drew Brees runs it up, and I think the Foll's
magic comes back down to earth. So you're not scared,
n No, not at all, not even close is but
you're not. Yeah, well, and look, if this doesn't go
out the right way, I'll just delete it from the podcast. So,
I mean, that's real quick here, Fezik and Brad have
the same best bet. So we're getting two good ones
(39:47):
and one's a double baby fees, make your case. Yeah,
like the New England Patriots. All about all this travel
for the Chargers at Denver, at Baltimore, now going to Boston,
all the time, going back to Los Angeles, T thousand miles,
and I got a question. These Chargers skill position players, quarterback, rivers,
running back Gordon, wide, receiver Allen. They all look banged
(40:08):
up to me, r J from those two games against Baltimore.
This travel, I think it's gonna have a big impact
on all the Charges, especially these three. All Right, so
we talked about every game. We gave our picks and
our leans. Your very best bet. If you could only
take off the rubber band for one NFL game, it's
the Patriots and Belichick. We trust Brad. And speaking of
Bill Belichick, my best bet is also on the Patriots.
(40:29):
I don't think you can get a bigger mismatch as
far as postseason experience and a head coaching edge, then
Bill Belichick with extra time to prep against Anthony Lynn.
The line says, it's gonna be a close game. Who
do you trust to make the correct decisions? And when
the game is on the line, give me Bill Belichick.
I agree with you, guys. I like this one too.
You know. It's funny. Colin was talking about this game
(40:52):
and he said, I think the Chargers might be better,
and I think they might be all things equal, but
I still like Pats here because this is one of
the worst situation spots I've seen the ten am Pacific
body clock for the Chargers on top of all that.
So to recap, Brad powers Phezzi both with their best
(41:13):
bats on New England. My best bat is on the
Saints team total over twenty nine and a half points.
I gotta tell you, Jonas, I'm feeling pretty good and
we are gonna be feeling much better coming up Monday
at six pm Eastern time when we are back. If
you missed any of today's show, check out the podcast
on Fox Sports radio dot com, a deep dive into
(41:35):
every NFL game We are straight out of Vegas back
Monday here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has
the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all
of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and
within the I Heart Radio app search f s R
(41:55):
to listen live.
You're listening to Fox Sports. This is straight out of
Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your host r J Bow,
collect the pregame show America has always wanted from the
(00:40):
Vegas Trip. Here's r J Bow. You heard it. I'm
r J Live Coast to coast, six o'clock Eastern, three
o'clock here in Vegas, Action packed special hour for your Friday.
Every Friday during the football season, it's Pick Palooza. That
means picks, picks and more picks. But this is special.
(01:03):
We got the four biggest football games of the week,
the four that's gonna get us down to the final four,
and we're gonna break down each game in depth and
then at the end of the hour get my best bat,
Physic's best bat, Brad Power's best bat, and even Jonas
(01:23):
he's two and two. I think I don't think he's
had a pick for about three months. He's coming out strong.
He likes something in that Saints Philly game. Also joined,
as we said by physic NFL expert Brad Powers, all
the college knowledge sports batters listening for the money sports
fans listen to no more than their buddies. My personal
(01:47):
promise we will deliver the Vegas truth to you. But
you can't have pros without Joe's he is Joan is
not always good to be here r J on the
Friday before divisional play off weekend in the NFL. So
let's waste no time and let's get it started. We
go to the a f C, in particular Kansas City, Saturday,
(02:09):
four thirty five pm Eastern time. The Chiefs on pregame
dot com right now are a five point favorite hosting
the Colts. So here's what we're gonna do. We're going
around the wise Guy round table. If you listen to
the podcast, you're familiar going to Fasik first, gonna get
his pick on the game, and then his number one factor,
(02:30):
then Brad than me Fez. Let's start. What's your pick?
What's your number one factor? Coach Chiefs? I like the Cults.
They're my pick plus five and number one factor. I
can make the case that the Cults are playing the
best football throughout the NFL. They're on a ten one
straight up run. But what's more impressive is not only
(02:51):
are they ten and one, but they are number one
in the league in point differential has so it hasn't
been a bunch of close wins. All right, So let's
define point differential how many points the Colts have scored,
how many points the opponents have scored, And that difference
is more than any other difference the other thirty one
teams during this eleven games span. So that shows you
(03:13):
because sometimes Houston this year was an example one a
bunch of close games. Their record was good, but their
point differential wasn't considering their record, and that's a sign
this may be a lucky team. The fact the Colts
have the best point differential says a great record, and
they've been winning most of these games handily. Correct. So
(03:35):
and in fact, the one game they lost was a
close lost against Jacksonville. Okay, so you gave the Colts
as an early best bat on Tuesday, and you've been
killing that early best bat. You're still with them. Now.
You're gonna give another best bat at the end of
the show, at the end of the six six o'clock
Eastern hour. But this is your best bet from Tuesday.
(03:55):
You're sticking with it. You like the Colts now, you know.
Let's actually you think a minute about why they've been
playing better because to me and I've been in Vegas. Actually,
next week will be twenty one years in Vegas. Very
youthful looking though for that, but it's true twenty one years.
And I'm always worried. I'm always I took a train,
(04:21):
took it was hitshiking train kind of going Dylan went
from Minnesota to New York City. Okay, I'm always worried
about arbitrary start points, right as in oh, the last
four games were the last two and a half quarters,
or if you don't count that first half because it
was a ten am start. So fez make the case
(04:43):
why the eleven games is more meaningful within the sixteen
because if you look at the whole sixteen games the
entire season, you don't think the Colts are better than
Casey for the season, right, So why are the eleven
games more applicable? Because Drew Luck got healthy during the
course of the season. Back in September, his shoulder just
(05:04):
wasn't right. We saw he wasn't able to throw the
ball downfield. Hey, we gotta bring in Jacoby Brissette to
throw a hell Mary because Luck can't throw it more
than fifty yards. Early in October, that started to change.
By the end of the year, Lux arm strength had
really improved. And you have an amazing stat with Luck.
If you look at every game September, October, November, he
(05:24):
never once Andrew Luck ran the ball more than five times,
so he wasn't running the ball. There's been five games
since December. In those five games, four of the five
he ran the ball over five times. So for three
months it never happens. And now of the games the
last five, Andrew Lux running more in the mobile quarterback
(05:47):
is a sign of health, his willingness to run Andrew Luck,
but also is a sign of danger for the opposing
defense in the playoffs because running quarterbacks in the playoffs
are more inclined to run, and they're very successful. We've
certainly seen Russell Wilson and we've seen Aaron Rodgers accomplished
that over the years. I'm r J. Bell straight out
(06:09):
of Vegas, breaking down each of the four NFL games.
First game coach Chiefs, wrapping up with Steve Fezik. He
likes an early best bet actually on Tuesday, and he
still likes the Colts in this game. Also why eleven
games matter ten and one last eleven the defensive scheme.
They had a new coach, new defense. We had great,
(06:30):
Great Coast on a couple of weeks ago, straight out
of Vegas. He said, hey, after that one in five Star,
this was a team that changed up some scheme stuff defensively,
and they played so much better after that. And I
think lastly, another reason there's eleven games are meaningful for
the Colts more than the sixteen full season is the
number of rookies. When you have key contributors that are rookies,
(06:53):
they tend to trend up more than other players throughout
the season. And we've seen that for sure, Fez Sing
there's a subset within the Colts eleven games that's even
more impressive. There's seven games that they played even better. Explained. Yes,
in those seven games when Luck had his center and
(07:13):
his left tackle and they both started seven games, he
was not sacked once throughout the year, tremendous pass blocking,
seven games without a sack. When these conditions are met,
and they're met for this game, correct, that's the physic
This is straight out of Vegas. Next up, same thing,
Brad Powers. Tell me who you like and the number
(07:33):
one reason why like Indianapolis for me. But my number
one factor is considering the other team in his opponent
Kansas City, who was not the same team down the stretch.
Kansas City only one cover in their last seven games.
Why why was the chief Why were the Chiefs struggling
down the stretch? Two reasons. Number one the loss of
Kaream Hunt, a big time playmaker out of the backfield,
(07:56):
running and receiving. And number two, this is more traditionally
a about their head coach Andy Reid. More often than not,
the league tends to catch up with his different schemes
throughout the course of the season. I like Indianapolis. Yeah,
think of Alex Smith. Last year, even Alex Smith looked amazing.
Give Andy Read a bunch of credit. That changes this
season progressive now Mahomes clearly better than Alex Smith. But
(08:20):
still I think we might be seeing some of that phenomenon.
I'm r J. Bell straight out of Vegas. My pick
also colds like it. We're all three on the Colds.
To me, it's a master trend. This is kind of
a game changing trend. Pregame dot Com research pool this
one out. This is original. Guys. We looked at all
(08:41):
thirty two starting quarterbacks and we said, find me the
first playoffs start. I like to call it the virgin
start in the playoffs. Now, some quarterbacks haven't played in
the playoffs, so there's still virgins. We don't have any
numbers on them. Also, there's times it was virgin I
against virgin We know all about that. We threw those out, okay,
(09:06):
So what's left is a virgin quarterback in his first
start against a experienced non virgin quarterback. Twenty times that's
happened with these quarterbacks in the NFL currently, starting the
virgin quarterback is two winners, seventeen losers, and one push
against the spread. So all the other factors, Oh, rookies
(09:29):
usually aren't gonna win, blah blah blah whatever, and it's rookies,
or it could be later that your virgin start is
all that's considered. The spread considers it. And still Mahomes
obviously applies here. First start, he's in a two seventeen
and one against the spread situation. That's not good for
(09:51):
those keeping scored home. Another reason I think fake Casey
like the Coats. That's two quick questions. I don't love
this game. I just like it. Number one, ton of
injuries on the Colts defense. How concerned are you? I'm
not that concerned because frankly, these guys have been showing
up on the injury report the last couple of weeks,
and I haven't seen any issues with the Colts defense
(10:14):
here week seventeen, and of course in the playoffs lastly,
third straight road game for the Colts. They had a
must win Week seventeen at Tennessee, must win obviously first
round the playoffs at Houston. Now on the road a
third time, yeah, certainly a concern. But the one thing
that would mitigate that is it was such an easy,
easy wins for them at Tennessee and at Houston. They
lead that Houston and you, well, I know you disagree.
(10:39):
Now I'm having my say. And the reason, no, I'm right.
It's like, oh, you think you're right. Huh Okay, that's
a surprise then. But here's the thing. It's not so
much playing the game itself. It's all the preparation, It's
all the intensity, it's all the anxiety. It's been on
that plane known if you make one mistake your you
(11:00):
know your season could end. And I think that having
six third straight must win game when Kansas City hasn't
had an intense game for how long? Right? I mean
they beat the Raiders in week seventeen. I think you
could say Casey's rusty maybe, But to me, it's more
about that the Colts are a little bit tired. If
(11:21):
it wasn't for that, I would love the Colts even so.
I like the Colts. FeAs likes the Coats. Brad likes
the Colts. After Saturday's game between the Colts and Chief
Saturday night at the Colosseum on Foxes, the Cowboys and
the Rams right now l a a seven and a
half point favorite over Dallas. Alright, same thing, Fazz, who
do you like? And number one factor? Yeah, I leaned
(11:43):
to Dallas. I really just the lean, just the lean.
I think the number one factors. I really think there's
a good chance Dallas can shorten this game with a
matchup advantage by running the ball Dallas. We all know
Zeke Elliott runs the ball well. Dallas games four and
f yards per rush. That's above the NFL bridge, but
the Ramsey is actually last in the NFL. They give
(12:03):
up over five yards per rush. If Dallas can have
long drives, time consuming drives, they can shorten this game,
and it becomes the way are we supposed to act?
Like the Rams offense is some kind of like jogger,
not Oh, Jared Goff is coming, say put the choulder
in a way. I mean, what the heck? What are
we scared of? Well, the Rams could well have a
(12:26):
very successful day offensively here. I mean, it sounds like
like someone in a parole hearing. It's like, it's very
possible with this four time loser could now not break
the law again. That didn't sound very convinced. What have
the Rams done in the last six weeks, even two
months after the Kansas City game? What have the Rams
done that would make you think we better shorten this game?
(12:48):
The Rams have struggled offensively, I agree, So why are
you saying what you're girly was not a dent in
the playoffs? You think it's percent? Now, we don't know that.
We don't think so. So this line assumes he's it does.
So why not like the Cowboys? What's stopping you from
liking the Cowboys? Everything you've said, Brad, everything he said
(13:09):
sounds like he likes the Cowboys, But instead he goes, Eileen, Lean,
why gut feel you're just scared? I'm scared. Maybe I
got that ticket on the ramps to win the Super Bowl,
and it's biasing the r J from back in September.
Why would that bias you shouldn't, But why how could
it even conceptually buyas you it shouldn't. So you just
(13:32):
said it might be something that makes no sense. It
would be. But I'll tell you this. I actually, you
know if you read Malcolm Gladwell's Blink, what it talks
about is the idea that we all have gut instincts
that are instant, and it's our whole history that leads
to that instinct and we don't know consciously why sometimes,
but you got to trust the instinct. Doesn't mean you
(13:54):
do it blind. But if you've got a feeling this
doesn't feel right, even if you can't explain ain't it,
it's valid to react to that feeling because it's your
subconscious telling you something. And we know fezes subconscious as
a winner because he has a mansion and he has
a yacht. When we come back, we're going to continue
in this RAMS game. I actually like it more. And
(14:16):
you're gonna get my pick in the Rams Cowboys game
that's coming up next to hes r J bell On
Jonas Knox is the pregame show you always wanted right
here on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell Straight out of
(14:38):
Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks Voice of You the Fan
coming up here in just a moment, we will get
back into the Cowboys and the Rams coming up on
Saturday night. Each day, we have fun bringing the fun
of Vegas straight to you right now on the Strip.
Sixty degrees, yes, January sixty degrees here, baby, and the
neon is flowing from the Strip, Vegas back to the
(15:00):
Colosseum in l A. We go the Rams minus seven
and a half hosting the Dallas Cowboys. Yes, seven's out there.
Seven and a half. Seven is the key number, the
second key number in the NFL three most margin of victory,
most common margin of victory in the NFL three, Seven
is number two. So, boy, if you're gonna lay it,
(15:21):
lay a seven. If you're gonna take it, take the
seven and a half, fests says he Leans Leans leans
only on Dallas, and when asked why, he said, I
don't know just and then he started patting his stomach
and you might think that's goofy right or is he hungry. No,
he's saying, I've been doing his twenty plus years. I
(15:42):
haven't had a straight job since nine and I know
my stuff and my stomach says be careful with Dallas.
That does worry me. But he still leans that way. Brad,
you think it's a tight one too. You don't really
have a strong opinion, but you've got a big factor
that's programs and one that's anti Rams. Yeah, torn on
(16:02):
this one. R J. The pro factor why I would
lean with the Rams, it's Jared Goff. Much better quarterback
at home this entire season, twenty two touchdowns, only three interceptions.
On the road, very average quarterback Jared Goff ten touchdowns,
nine picks. But here's what's concerned. Concerns me with the
Rams against winning teams zero covers zero in their last
(16:25):
seven games against winning teams zero five and two against
the number. So you're saying, and that's an interesting way
to think about handicapping. Some teams play really well against
bad teams and they run it up. Other teams will
play up or down to the competition, And what you're
saying is when the Rams played a team that was
simply nine, nine and seven or batter. Ultimately, at the
(16:47):
end of the year, if you look back at those games,
the last seven of them, the Rams did not cover
one time. Nope, zero covers. Is you're what you're got
telling you? Yeah, my God says that that's a very
good factor, especially because what how did the Rams end
a really nice win against Arizona, really nice win against
San Francisco not exactly playoff teams there, that's the physic
(17:12):
and marj bel straight out of Vegas. Now my take
fez Lean's Dallas Brad says, pass I like Dallas here
and here's why. Imagine if the season were flipped and
the first half of the first eight games were the
last eight games and vice versa. So what the Rams
(17:33):
did the last eight weeks would have led the season off.
How different would the narrative be? And we have fun
with Fez on this one. But three weeks into the year,
the Rams were plus two fifty to win the Super
Bowl and literally no team at that point of the
season in the last decade ten years had been that
(17:56):
big of a favorite. The Rams relative to the competition,
were or than any of those ballot checked teams, any
team in the last decade, seems absurd. Somehow, Fez was
just smiling. He was all happy because he had a
Rams ticket in his pocket at six to one. But
here's the question. A couple of weeks before the season
even started, the Rams were thirteen to one, and then
(18:20):
everyone started saying, well, wait a minute, that Peters. That's
that guy that was real good with Kansas City, right
and to leave. I've seen him in some Super Bowls.
They were looking at like a rotisserie team or something,
and they said, well, if they have a great offensive, Rams,
they have a great defense. Well great plus great equals great.
Is that a fair representation of your analysis? Fest? It's
close enough, all right, but this is at metting it.
(18:43):
So now the question is are the Rams great on offense? No?
Are the Rams greade on defense? No? In fact, they're
the worst team against the rush in the NFL yards
per carry. And I'm telling you this. Zeke Elliott can
run the ball, buddy. And we talked about mobile cole
trter backs Doc. It's very effective when quarterbacks are willing
(19:04):
to run. Doc is the most mobile quarterback in the NFL.
What percentage of the crowd is going to be rooting
for Dallas in this quote unquote home game at least
I think more, Collins said, And we did our podcast already.
It's out tomorrow morning. You can get it on my Twitter,
me and Colin breaking down a pick on every one
(19:25):
of these games at r J in Vegas on Twitter
to get the Calling cow Herd pod with me fest. Yes,
ticket service Vivid Seats is currently projecting Rams fans, but
I think this is misleading because this is by zip
codes and the like, because I think that thtent Cowboys
fans is gonna be a whole lot louder and a
whole lot more passionate. Yeah, I've never heard this Vivid.
(19:47):
Whatever we'll see, I gotta feel it's gonna be more
towards fifty. But either way, it's gonna be less home
field advantage than you would expect. Last thing, Girly's health. Now,
Dallas has a pretty good rushdie fence. Another example of
a pretty good rush defense the Saints. When the Rams
played the Saints, and this was in New Orleans, so
(20:09):
you would expect the Rams they were underdogs, might not
be able to run as much as they'd want. The
over under for rush yards Vegas set for Girly was
like ninety six. Now Girly over under rush yards against
Dallas fast and a half. So think about this about
the same quality d wouldn't you agreed, Dallas against the run,
(20:31):
Saints against the run. If anything, Saints are a little better,
but close. Let's call it. On one hand, the over
under for rush yards for Gurley when he's healthy is
almost a hunter. And now it's below eighty. The Vegas
market is telling you. Doesn't mean it's true, but the
Vegas market believes Girle is not a Now I'm not
(20:55):
betting Dallas on the spread. What I'll tell you is
on my best beat. This game is involved, and we've
got a professional way, a superior way to bet this
Dallas game. From the l A Rams to the l
A Chargers, we go. The Chargers are in New England
to take on the Patriots. This is the Sunday one
oh five Eastern time kickoff New England. A four point
(21:17):
favorite on pregame dot com. You know some of these
Vegas shows and they're all popping up, you know, in
local markets, and they've been here for a long time.
It literally they calm jonas a rundown show where they
open the schedule up and it's like, okay, next up,
townsend State off a loss, and it's like I just
(21:37):
think something home now, who's listening to this? But I
gotta admit there's a certain purity to just running down
these games when appropriate that I enjoyed. No sex, no booze,
no drugs. Little Roller is a purest. He's a girl bread.
All he cares about is the next hand. Well, here's
(22:00):
the next game, as your purest. Let's be honest. Who
do you like and why? Yeah? I like New England.
Here it's all about the horrible travel spot for the
Chargers is my number one factor. Week seventeen of the
regular season. They travel to altitude at Denver, then they
come back to Los Angeles and then playoff game at Baltimore,
(22:20):
all the way across the country. Then they don't stay
on in the East Coast. They fly back to l A.
And now they're flying to Boston. That is a whole
lot of travel, ten thousand miles during those trips, and
during that time, Bill Belichick has traveled from his bedroom
to his office and film room that triangle, because literally,
Week sixteen home double dis, your favorites Bills win easily.
(22:44):
Week seventeen home double dis, your favorite Jets win easily.
Then a bye, I would make the case. This is
the most disparate rest situation I've ever seen in the NFL.
I mean maybe I don't. I don't remember another one
where the Patriots are about as rested as a team
(23:05):
can be. And oh, by the way, the Chargers three
in a row, four out of five on the road.
Also so road home, road, road road across the country
another ten am start. Wow. So I think it's both
the fatigue of the Chargers and the rest of the
(23:25):
paths that contrast is the key. Yes, And that physical
fatigue might just translate to more fatigue due to the
weather twenty six degrees here in Boston and a team
from Los Angeles. So when you say here in Boston,
are you mentally at Foxboro right now? Or I am
after I bet the Patriots. It reminds me of the
great line with Cramer. He was moving to California. He
(23:48):
tells everyone, Jerry and everyone, and they said, so Cramer,
when you leave into California, you know when you get
into California. He goes, in my mind, I'm already there,
So I don't you know you can aimer? I see it.
I'm R J Bow straight out of Vegas. Okay, Brad,
same thing. Who do you like in this game? Why
like New England for me? On top of the travel factor,
(24:10):
let's talk about New England at home. They've been at
home the last month. New England at home this year?
The best, the best team in the NFL, perfect eight
and l number one in the NFL, out scoring their
opponents by sixteen points per game. Not by the way,
just because straight up eight now eight, No, straight up,
I'll scoring their opponents by more than two touchdowns per game,
(24:30):
out gaining their opponents number one in the NFL, by
a hundred and eleven yards per game. So Brett, I
would play devil's advocate. I think you're probably right. The
Pats are the best home team in the NFL this year.
But who's the best road team? The Chargers. So doesn't
I kind of weigh out? It does weigh out a
little bit. The line saying it's weighing out, but I'm
not saying there's not other factors. But I do think
(24:52):
if anything, you can mitigate that that that Chargers or
road Warriors factor because you do have the probably the
best home team in the NFL. And what I would
say also research from pregame dot com research. Mackie headed
this one up associate producer here. He does his calisthenics
and stuff during the show too, but I don't think
(25:12):
he gets credit necessarily for that. This is interesting. In
the last seven games the Belichick's had the bye in
the division round. Okay, they have won the games or
six and one against the spread in those games, but
they've won the games by over sixteen points a game,
so six and one against the spread. They lost the
(25:34):
Ravens only one they lost too in that time, and
when you're winning playoff games by sixteen points, I think
we see Belichick for sure taking advantage of the bye
against the team that played the week before. In just
one minute, you're gonna get my pick on the Patriots
game that's coming up next. But for all the latest
(25:55):
from around the world of sports, some coaching news in
the NFL, nothing official yet at the Dolphins are reportedly
focused on making Patriots linebackers coach Brian Floras their head coach.
That from the NFL Network. Of course, the deal can't
be done until the Patriots season is over. Gary Kubiak
won't be joining the Broncos staff under Vic Fangio as
their offensive coordinator. ESPN says the sides just couldn't come
(26:17):
together on staffing and offensive philosophies. Packers defensive coordinator Mike
Petton will return under new head coach Matt Lafleur. Well
Marty morning Way to shouting to leave the Ravens organization
after he was replaced as the team's offensive coordinator by
Greg Roman earlier today. Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts is visiting
Maryland today and will also visit the University of Miami
(26:37):
on Sunday. According to Keene sport dot com, Alabama defensive
I mean Quinnon Williams is leaving school early to enter
the NFL draft. Bucks forward jannat tea compo out tonight
against the war the Wizards. That is, he has a
hip injury. Dodgers acquired catcher Russell Martin in a trade
with the Blue Jays today and Astros third basement Alex
Bregman underwent surgery on his elbow to remove loose particles,
(26:58):
but should be ready for opening. Back to you, guys.
Thanks stands straight out of Vegas. Here Fox Sports Radio
coming up in about twelve minutes from now here on
fs ARE, we will have best bets as we head
into a busy weekend in the NFL. I'm Jonas Knocks,
the voice of you the fan. He is the voice
of Vegas. R J. Bell. Yeah, I gotta tell you, Jonas,
I love this right. When you get a chance to
(27:19):
spend quadruple the time on each game, you find those
nuggets that the average handicapper, the average sports media guy,
they don't have. So we always say at the beginning
of the show, sports bettors listen for the money sports fans,
and about half our listeners don't even bet to know
more than their buddies. I think we're delivering to that definitely,
(27:40):
And so let's get back into it. Guys. Where we
were talking. Patriots Chargers still sitting at Patriots minus four
currently on pregame dot Com. All right, Fasik, you like
New England your main reason? Chargers travel four five road games,
a lot of miles travel ten am start body clockwise,
Brad said, Hey, Pats are really good at home. I
(28:02):
like the Pats actually eight oh this year, fifteen straight
home game wins for the Patriots, twelve and three against
the spread in those games. Brad also likes the Pats.
We're gonna have our best bets here in about ten minutes.
I like the Pats too. And here's why. I think
(28:24):
there's something wrong with the Chargers offense. And I think
there's something wrong, perhaps with the health of the quarterback.
You know, there's always that shot put shot put through.
It just looks worse. That's one thing to have. The
eye test, all right. You can pat your belly, you
can point to your eyes, but I like to have dada.
(28:48):
Last five games, the Chargers have gained two yards per
game on average across the season. That would be number
thirty one in the NFL. Now we can say, and
let's give credit, or let's at least acknowledge. They played
the Ravens twice during that time, a really good defense,
(29:11):
but still two yards. It feels like there's something wrong.
Are you seeing anything with your eyes? Oh? Very much so.
And when we saw them beat ball very much, what
are you seeing? I am seeing Rivers. You mentioned it.
He always throws a little bit of a shot put motion,
but it just looks awkward, like he's releasing the ball quickly,
but he doesn't have the zip. He doesn't have the
(29:32):
fastball that he had earlier in the year. And I wonder, also,
r J, what's the most physical defense in the NFL,
either the Bears or Baltimore. Having to play Baltimore two
of the last three weeks, is that going to have
a lasting impact on That's a good point right there.
Physic No wonder you won that Super contest twice. That's
a good point. And then also Belichick has certain guys
(29:55):
number well against Rivers. Eight times they've played one in
seven straight up. By the way, Rivers is, by the way,
the only time he beat Belichick with Castle at quarterback,
but in his entire career in those eight games, ten
touchdowns for Rivers, ten interceptions. When you have a borderline
Hall of Famer playing half a season against one coach
(30:19):
and he's ten and ten TV interceptions, it's a sign
perhaps Belichick has his number. Perhaps there's something wrong physically
with Rivers, or something else about that Chargers offense doesn't
seem right. Lastly, if there's one thing you can say
that's a concern about the Pats it's gonna be Brady's age, right,
(30:41):
and the whole team is kind of oh little slow boy.
All of this rest. I think it benefits the Pats
more than any team, any team, because they really have
not only had the week off, but some home games
they were double digit favorites and physic lights the Pats.
Brad Powers likes the Pats. I like the Pats. As
we transition to the Eagles and the Saints, which is
(31:04):
the weekend Caper four forty Eastern time on Sunday on Fox,
I wanted to throw this quote from a Saint's head
coach Sean Payton at you are j and the guys
in Vegas. Sean Payton and talking about home field advantage,
he said, quote, not too long ago here, it wasn't
too tough of a place to play when we were struggling.
I think part of that is what kind of team
you're fielding, and when you get the combinations of a
(31:25):
good team and then the crowd noise, and then you
have something I think a lot has to do with
the talent level of your football team. End quote. What
is the Vegas takeaway of Sean Payton's assessment of home
field and Belichick said something similar home field. Right, Yeah,
Belichick's pointed out that last week three teams one on
the road. So here's what there you go. Here's what
(31:47):
I would say. Belichick is telling you not what he
thinks is the truth, but what he thinks is going
to help him win a game. Right. So I would never, ever,
ever disagree with Bill Belichick a about football. All right,
So let's start there. That said, it's easy to look
at the numbers in the playoffs. At the time the
(32:09):
home team wins, and they win by an average of
four point seven points a game, so almost five points
a game. Now, skeptics out there you might say, well,
wait a minute, r J. The home teams the better
team a majority of the time, they should win. Well, yeah,
but if the teams were even, home field in the
regular season is three typically, and if you look at
(32:30):
the numbers, home teams win by about three. The fact
it's four point seven points a game advantage for the
home team reinforces its home field. Plus the teams are
better the home teams oftentimes. So to me, the numbers
tell you for sure that home is a big advantage.
Would you rather win percent at the time or thirty
(32:54):
seven percent at the time, home teams win sixty three.
So let's take a closer look at the matchup between
the Eagles and Saints this Sunday. We're right now on
pregame dot com. New Orleans is an eight point favorite.
Sean Paynton said something very salient to the Saints, which
is their home field when they're winning, is one of
(33:15):
the best, if not the best, in the NFL Seattle,
Green Bay, New Orleans when the Saints are winning. When
the Saints aren't winning, it does drop off. Why because
the noise of the dome is one of the big
advantages in Green Bay. The noise isn't a big advantage.
Is the uniqueness of that slick surface, that grass. That's
I think is the driver. So he's right. But obviously
(33:39):
in a playoff game, you gotta feel pretty good about
the Saints. Fez, who do you like? What's your number
one factor? I leaned to the Saints, and it's all
about the Eagles travel. I really don't like the fact
fifth road game the last six weeks, third road game
in a row, and also not just road games, r J.
This is their fourth rate must win or you're done game.
(34:03):
How much energy does this team have left. Why don't
you like it? You know, Foles is playing incredibly best
passer rating in playoff history. Nick Foles don't want to
step in front of the Foals freight train. Forget Remember
what was that on Tin Cop when he's going, step
aside Nicholas, step aside Tom Watson. There's a guy named
(34:26):
Mcaroy has got your name. Well, step beside Joe Montana.
Nick Foles best passer in playoff history. So what you're
saying is really that everything points to the Saints, but
you're scared to bet against Nick Foles. I am. I
talked about how he didn't look good in preseason. I
(34:47):
think we're way past preseason. How many times does he
have to put up a QBR game after game around
seventy five, which puts him in the top quartile on
one game throughout the league. But you stack all these together,
he's playing like the third best quarterback in the league.
So Physic leans with the Saints. When we come back,
you're gonna get my pick on the Saints and my
(35:08):
best bat. Physic's best bet, Brad's best bet, and yes,
Jonas is best bet. He's r J Bell on Jonas
Knocks is at the pregame show you Always wanted and
it's money making time next here on Fox Sports Radio.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. I'm
(35:29):
r J. Bell, We're Straight out of Vegas, and I'm
Jonas Knock's voice of you the fan. Let's get back
into it, guys, as we finish up here. It is
the Eagles and the Saints right now on pregame dot Com.
The Saints still an eight point favorite hosting Philadelphia, so
physic two. Tim Hilton Super Contest champion only got to
do that, said, I lean Saints, but I'm scared to
(35:51):
Nick Foles. I think it's a reasonable position to have
Brad same thing, Lean Saints, right, Lean Saints. Okay, Oh,
have you done your handicap on giving the number one? Yeah? All,
let's talk about Nick Foles. Let's talk about the other
side of the ball for Philadelphia. What really has changed
for Philadelphia since they allowed forty eight points to the
(36:14):
Saints just a few weeks ago. I'd argue not much.
The Eagles took advantage of Washington team playing a couple
backup quarterbacks Chicago took couldn't take advantage. Houston certainly took
advantage of Philadelphia's defense, and so did the Cowboys with
thirteen different starters in that secondary this year, I don't
see how the Eagles stopped the Saints here, and I
(36:34):
think you're right. Everyone was saying the Saints or I'm sorry,
this Eagles team is dead because their d backs are
so bad. Breeze put up forty eight, But if you
look at the quarterbacks as Brad Powers just ticked off,
other than Watson, who they gave up thirty points to,
not great quarterbacks. So I think that problem in the
Eagles secondary still there. It hasn't been exploited. You might
(36:56):
question the Saints when it comes to their offense later
in the year, but that was on the road last
five home games for the Saints. When Breeze plays, here's
the point. Totalt one thirty one forty three doesn't sound
like a problem at all on offense for the Saints.
(37:18):
So let me look at this. You know something, I'm
gonna hold my I was gonna do my best bet
on a parlay. I'm gonna I'm gonna call an audible
Jonas I'm gonna give my best bet. Now, forget the
best time to bat. I'm just gonna win, all right.
Here's my audible best bet, R J. Bell over twenty
(37:39):
nine and a half points for the Saints. So you
can do team totals and pretty much any book. He's
gonna let you do this if not shop around legally,
of course, over twenty nine and a half points. Now.
Fest said I'm scared of Nick Foles. Some might laugh
at that. I my guess is tens of thousands laughed
(38:00):
across the country at youths. But all that said, they
were wrong because I'm kind of scared of Nick Foles too,
just in a more manly way, I think. And to me,
I don't want to get involved with Nick Foles in
his magic. What I want is the Saints offense against
the Philly defense, because what else does Philly have to offer.
(38:21):
Philly has to offer a great pass rush. Well, who's
got a great old line and who gets rid of
the ball quicker than anyone. So the Saints team is
built to to to exploit the Eagles. Why because the
big pass rush doesn't really matter for the Eagles that much.
With Breeze and oh the d Backs are terrible. Let's
forget fos over twenty nine and a half of the
(38:43):
Saints best better the week. I love it, and I
love the fact Nick Foles as a gun slinger. You
might get a pick six and he may throw three
touchdown passes and one pick six interception as well. How
could the best passer rating in the history of the
playoffs throw a pick six? Guys? Come on, hey, Jonas,
you like this one too? Yeah? I like New Orleans
minus the eight. Everyone's over hyping Nick Foles from a
(39:03):
week ago. He had two awful interceptions. You can make
the case in a lot of spots in that game
he was outplayed by Mitch Drabinsky. Drabinsky found a lot
of holes in that second area, especially in the second half.
Allen Robinson went for ten catches and over a hundred yards.
He dominated in that second half. Josh Bellamy had a
big reception in that second half. None of those guys
are starters. Probably on the New Orleans Saints, I think
(39:26):
Drew Brees runs it up, and I think the Foll's
magic comes back down to earth. So you're not scared,
n No, not at all, not even close is but
you're not. Yeah, well, and look, if this doesn't go
out the right way, I'll just delete it from the podcast. So,
I mean, that's real quick here, Fezik and Brad have
the same best bet. So we're getting two good ones
(39:47):
and one's a double baby fees, make your case. Yeah,
like the New England Patriots. All about all this travel
for the Chargers at Denver, at Baltimore, now going to Boston,
all the time, going back to Los Angeles, T thousand miles,
and I got a question. These Chargers skill position players, quarterback, rivers,
running back Gordon, wide, receiver Allen. They all look banged
(40:08):
up to me, r J from those two games against Baltimore.
This travel, I think it's gonna have a big impact
on all the Charges, especially these three. All Right, so
we talked about every game. We gave our picks and
our leans. Your very best bet. If you could only
take off the rubber band for one NFL game, it's
the Patriots and Belichick. We trust Brad. And speaking of
Bill Belichick, my best bet is also on the Patriots.
(40:29):
I don't think you can get a bigger mismatch as
far as postseason experience and a head coaching edge, then
Bill Belichick with extra time to prep against Anthony Lynn.
The line says, it's gonna be a close game. Who
do you trust to make the correct decisions? And when
the game is on the line, give me Bill Belichick.
I agree with you, guys. I like this one too.
You know. It's funny. Colin was talking about this game
(40:52):
and he said, I think the Chargers might be better,
and I think they might be all things equal, but
I still like Pats here because this is one of
the worst situation spots I've seen the ten am Pacific
body clock for the Chargers on top of all that.
So to recap, Brad powers Phezzi both with their best
(41:13):
bats on New England. My best bat is on the
Saints team total over twenty nine and a half points.
I gotta tell you, Jonas, I'm feeling pretty good and
we are gonna be feeling much better coming up Monday
at six pm Eastern time when we are back. If
you missed any of today's show, check out the podcast
on Fox Sports radio dot com, a deep dive into
(41:35):
every NFL game We are straight out of Vegas back
Monday here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has
the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all
of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and
within the I Heart Radio app search f s R
(41:55):
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