January 8, 2020 • 11 mins
RJ Bell and the Straight Outta Vegas crew analyze the latest Tom Brady news and give an overnight line movement that may heavily inform you what is next for Brady's future. The guys give the latest odds on the Browns head coaching search and explain a trend that shows how much of a long shot the Texans are this weekend.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. We do have odds though,
So yesterday, what did the odds say on Brady? What's
the odds say today? Bratti Brady's odds of returning to
New England yesterday the yes minus one seventy What does
that mean? Little more than a sixty chance Brady returns
to New England. That's yesterday. Today the yes minus three hundred.
(00:23):
That means the odds of Brady returning to New England
more than seventy today ten plus percent chance. It went
up in the last twenty four hours, which, considering the Instagram,
makes a ton of sense. Remember now, I believe that
Brady leveraged the situation to be a free agent here
because he probably wants a two year deal. I think
(00:44):
it's more about he knows he'll be able to play
next year, can he play the year after? And that
perhaps is what Belichick might be resistant to. That might
be the battle. Not if he comes back or wants
to come back, does he get the second year? Is
the question? Steve Asik, Let's be candid. I've you've been forthcoming.
(01:06):
I beat you on a lot of bests reading last
year or so, it's been a hot streak. But you
got me on this one over under. Would Brady's qb
R be in the top eleven? So I had position
one through eleven, you had twelve and above. How do
you finish? And right now, if you had to rank
Brady for next year, we did an early look at
(01:27):
next year's quarterback ratings. Where do you have Brady? He
finished seventeenth this year and early look have him as
the number twenty quarterback for next year. Now here's the
question in Jonas, I mean, this is to me the
core question. Can you win a Super Bowl with the
twenty best? Quote, it's no longer as Brady gonna carry
a team, He's not going to carry a team. Can
(01:50):
you win a Super Bowl with the twenty best quarterback?
I would make the case putting Nick Foles wherever you
want to put Nick Nick Fojos, because that, to me
is one of the great mysteries of life, how that happened. Otherwise,
look at the quarterbacks that's won a Super Bowl usually.
In fact, I would make the case all the way
back to Johnson and do forer and Flacco would be
(02:13):
the question mark. I think Flacco was playing top ten
that year, but other than that. I don't even think
there's a question, And again, I guess Peyton Manning would
be the question. But it's tough to win a super
Bowl without a top ten quarterback. Do you think you
can win one with number twenty? No, If he's the
twenties best quarterback towards the end of next season, they're
(02:35):
not winning a super Bowl. And does that seem wrong
to you Number twenty No, that seems about right based
on how he played. I'm just curious what they do
around him if he does indeed come back. What do
they do around him offensive line wise, running game wise,
wide receiver wise, because all of that will increase where
he ranks. I'm assuming on Fez's power rankings, and if
(02:56):
he's you know, closer to the top ten at that
point because of what to round him, then they got
a legitimate shot. Oh, no doubt. And listen Belichick's Belichick,
if you look back, I was doing some work and
we'll talk about it later in the show on when
teams are outpointed on the season where they've been outscored,
I guess is the easier way to say it. How
(03:17):
How what does that mean about the playoffs? Outyarded? What
does that mean about the playoffs? And I was going back,
is that Patriots team to beat the Rams was outyarded
the entire season, So you know, obviously Brady's a legend today.
But remember the famous John Madden call, oh Man, the
no no way you can chance. Remember they keep that
(03:38):
field goal at the very end of the game against
the Rams. But New England was very aggressive going down field,
or not going down field, but a trying to get
downfield to kick that late field goal instead of going
to new overtime last offense. I thought, you know, you
looked like you were ready to go and something. There's
(03:59):
eight teams from anything about that k where did it go?
We we're talking about needing to have a top ten
quarterback just to make the elite eight in the NFL.
I can make the case if you include Tannehill and
Jimmy g Is borderline top ten guys, those are there,
maybe he's top ten and the Steve Fezik personal right
on the pillow and tuck it underneath before you go
(04:19):
to bat, clearly top twelve. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm
Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports radio and the
I Heart Radio app. The Cleveland Browns are the only
team in the NFL without a head coach currently, and
according to ESPN dot com, the Browns hope to hire
their next head coach by Saturday. Speaking of dum dums,
(04:42):
I'm confused about something, Jones. We haven't talked about this.
Let me just ask you, if you were gonna hire
more quickly in the NFL, what are the reasons to
hire more quickly? The best candidates are still available, exactly.
I that's it. There's no recruiting. Obviously, if we're talking
(05:03):
a month, it's an issue. But if we're talking this
Saturday or next Saturday or even the next Saturday, doesn't
really affect a lot, right. Leave it to the Browns
to put a self imposed deadline on themselves when there's
no value in it. Does anyone see any value? Is
(05:25):
if another team had an open slot, it's very reasonable
to say, hey, we do we want to get Matt Rule,
we want to get whatever, right, But who's gonna what
do they think uh Iowa State or something is gonna
nap up their candidates? I mean, it makes zero sense, right,
(05:45):
But leave it to the Browns. We got odd Zoe
on Browns and right now, Josh McDaniels the favorite to
get the Cleveland Brown's job plus one fifty, followed by
Kevin Stefanski, who's two to one Jim Schwartz boor to one.
This is my owns. You want to just read him again.
I want the theme and Josh McDaniels plus one fifty,
(06:06):
Kevin Stefanski two to one, Jim Schwartz bord to one
to be the next Browns coach. The Browns as you
one of these candidates you don't like at all. I
don't like Stefansk at all for the Browns. And here
is this an ethnic thing. I don't even know what
Stefanski is so bottom winne is. Stefanski loves to pound
(06:28):
the rock. That's why it was brought into Minnesota, run
the ball more, and he had problems with the Minnesota
wide receivers. Remember Diggs talking about Quentin Feeling being unhappy
will If Diggs and theland are unhappy, what's gonna happen
to Odell, Beckham and Landry at Cleveland when Cleveland starts
running the ball more with Stefanski. So what you're saying
is we're letting the players pick the coach. Yes, how
(06:50):
did that work out for Baker Mayfield picking Freddie? You know?
In a way, I think he's making a good point.
If you have players that are gonna you like, they're
empowered to be upset if you don't, if they don't
get the coach a like like an O. B J
or Mayfield, perhaps you're kind of asking for that in
a way, right. I think what we said yesterday bears repeating.
(07:17):
Has Lem, owner of the Browns, is probably the third
or fourth most mentioned owner in football. He likes that
or he doesn't have to be in the news as
much as he is. Right, Craft were to be on
that list, but it was not his choice, right, so
(07:38):
it didn't end how he owe it. But the reality
is what, I don't know what you're even saying. I mean.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific r J.
There is a trend this weekend in the NFL. It's
on the A f C side of the playoffs. The
(08:00):
Houston Texans are getting nine and a half points currently
on pregame dot Com at the Chiefs coming up on Sunday.
I love anything which repeats itself, Like one of my
favorite times of the year is March Madness. And why
because effectively we had we've had sixty four teams, you know,
starting on third, the first Thursday, and those sixty four
(08:22):
teams um have six rounds in order to you know,
win a title, and you can say, what's the first
round record, what's the second round record, etcetera, etcetera. And
to be honest, that kind of repetition lends itself to trends. Oh,
if the team wins the first two rounds, what happens
in the third? And what we do is we put
(08:45):
out our bracket picking tips every year, which are really
nice because there's a lot of history to them. So
this trend is fascinating when you have a team that's
been outscored on the season, okay, and then they reach
the division round. So right now, the Houston Texans have
(09:08):
been outscored this season. You look at the points they scored,
the points are opponents scored, Houston scored less, their opponents
have scored more. A team in that situation since two
thousand this century oh and seven in this round a
team has never made the conference finals. A f C
(09:33):
NFC being outscored on the season. So, and this is
a regular season stat, it doesn't matter what you do
in the playoffs. But even though if you count the playoffs,
because by definition, you would have advanced to be in
this divisional round, I don't think no one's ever won
a bye by being outscored. It's almost impossible. So Houston
(09:54):
won an additional game, they've still been outscored by four
points on the season. A team like this this bad
because Fez, it's our belief that close games even out,
and the point differential tells you as much, if not
more about a team than their wins and loss exactly right.
So Houston's nine and three and close games, if they
(10:17):
had just been six and six, that would have taken
three wins away from them. They would not have been
a playoff team because in theory, you're supposed to be
break even on close games that you can say Watson's
gonna make a difference. Okay, wouldn't Russell Wilson be the
guy that would make a difference. He has this year,
but before that, from two thousand and twelve, I think
(10:38):
until last year, Russell Wilson in games decided by seven
points or last three games below. This year, he's done better.
Oh guess what, It's all gonna even out. And I
think running quarterbacks might have a little edge latent games,
but it's a little. It's a little. That's Houston should
probably have three last wins and thus in general they
(10:59):
might be able to win a game by a miracle
in the first round another miracle. History says they don't
win this round. They never have this century. Fox Sports
Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot
com and within the I Heart Radio app search f
(11:19):
s R to listen live.
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. We do have odds though,
So yesterday, what did the odds say on Brady? What's
the odds say today? Bratti Brady's odds of returning to
New England yesterday the yes minus one seventy What does
that mean? Little more than a sixty chance Brady returns
to New England. That's yesterday. Today the yes minus three hundred.
(00:23):
That means the odds of Brady returning to New England
more than seventy today ten plus percent chance. It went
up in the last twenty four hours, which, considering the Instagram,
makes a ton of sense. Remember now, I believe that
Brady leveraged the situation to be a free agent here
because he probably wants a two year deal. I think
(00:44):
it's more about he knows he'll be able to play
next year, can he play the year after? And that
perhaps is what Belichick might be resistant to. That might
be the battle. Not if he comes back or wants
to come back, does he get the second year? Is
the question? Steve Asik, Let's be candid. I've you've been forthcoming.
(01:06):
I beat you on a lot of bests reading last
year or so, it's been a hot streak. But you
got me on this one over under. Would Brady's qb
R be in the top eleven? So I had position
one through eleven, you had twelve and above. How do
you finish? And right now, if you had to rank
Brady for next year, we did an early look at
(01:27):
next year's quarterback ratings. Where do you have Brady? He
finished seventeenth this year and early look have him as
the number twenty quarterback for next year. Now here's the
question in Jonas, I mean, this is to me the
core question. Can you win a Super Bowl with the
twenty best? Quote, it's no longer as Brady gonna carry
a team, He's not going to carry a team. Can
(01:50):
you win a Super Bowl with the twenty best quarterback?
I would make the case putting Nick Foles wherever you
want to put Nick Nick Fojos, because that, to me
is one of the great mysteries of life, how that happened. Otherwise,
look at the quarterbacks that's won a Super Bowl usually.
In fact, I would make the case all the way
back to Johnson and do forer and Flacco would be
(02:13):
the question mark. I think Flacco was playing top ten
that year, but other than that. I don't even think
there's a question, And again, I guess Peyton Manning would
be the question. But it's tough to win a super
Bowl without a top ten quarterback. Do you think you
can win one with number twenty? No, If he's the
twenties best quarterback towards the end of next season, they're
(02:35):
not winning a super Bowl. And does that seem wrong
to you Number twenty No, that seems about right based
on how he played. I'm just curious what they do
around him if he does indeed come back. What do
they do around him offensive line wise, running game wise,
wide receiver wise, because all of that will increase where
he ranks. I'm assuming on Fez's power rankings, and if
(02:56):
he's you know, closer to the top ten at that
point because of what to round him, then they got
a legitimate shot. Oh, no doubt. And listen Belichick's Belichick,
if you look back, I was doing some work and
we'll talk about it later in the show on when
teams are outpointed on the season where they've been outscored,
I guess is the easier way to say it. How
(03:17):
How what does that mean about the playoffs? Outyarded? What
does that mean about the playoffs? And I was going back,
is that Patriots team to beat the Rams was outyarded
the entire season, So you know, obviously Brady's a legend today.
But remember the famous John Madden call, oh Man, the
no no way you can chance. Remember they keep that
(03:38):
field goal at the very end of the game against
the Rams. But New England was very aggressive going down field,
or not going down field, but a trying to get
downfield to kick that late field goal instead of going
to new overtime last offense. I thought, you know, you
looked like you were ready to go and something. There's
(03:59):
eight teams from anything about that k where did it go?
We we're talking about needing to have a top ten
quarterback just to make the elite eight in the NFL.
I can make the case if you include Tannehill and
Jimmy g Is borderline top ten guys, those are there,
maybe he's top ten and the Steve Fezik personal right
on the pillow and tuck it underneath before you go
(04:19):
to bat, clearly top twelve. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm
Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports radio and the
I Heart Radio app. The Cleveland Browns are the only
team in the NFL without a head coach currently, and
according to ESPN dot com, the Browns hope to hire
their next head coach by Saturday. Speaking of dum dums,
(04:42):
I'm confused about something, Jones. We haven't talked about this.
Let me just ask you, if you were gonna hire
more quickly in the NFL, what are the reasons to
hire more quickly? The best candidates are still available, exactly.
I that's it. There's no recruiting. Obviously, if we're talking
(05:03):
a month, it's an issue. But if we're talking this
Saturday or next Saturday or even the next Saturday, doesn't
really affect a lot, right. Leave it to the Browns
to put a self imposed deadline on themselves when there's
no value in it. Does anyone see any value? Is
(05:25):
if another team had an open slot, it's very reasonable
to say, hey, we do we want to get Matt Rule,
we want to get whatever, right, But who's gonna what
do they think uh Iowa State or something is gonna
nap up their candidates? I mean, it makes zero sense, right,
(05:45):
But leave it to the Browns. We got odd Zoe
on Browns and right now, Josh McDaniels the favorite to
get the Cleveland Brown's job plus one fifty, followed by
Kevin Stefanski, who's two to one Jim Schwartz boor to one.
This is my owns. You want to just read him again.
I want the theme and Josh McDaniels plus one fifty,
(06:06):
Kevin Stefanski two to one, Jim Schwartz bord to one
to be the next Browns coach. The Browns as you
one of these candidates you don't like at all. I
don't like Stefansk at all for the Browns. And here
is this an ethnic thing. I don't even know what
Stefanski is so bottom winne is. Stefanski loves to pound
(06:28):
the rock. That's why it was brought into Minnesota, run
the ball more, and he had problems with the Minnesota
wide receivers. Remember Diggs talking about Quentin Feeling being unhappy
will If Diggs and theland are unhappy, what's gonna happen
to Odell, Beckham and Landry at Cleveland when Cleveland starts
running the ball more with Stefanski. So what you're saying
is we're letting the players pick the coach. Yes, how
(06:50):
did that work out for Baker Mayfield picking Freddie? You know?
In a way, I think he's making a good point.
If you have players that are gonna you like, they're
empowered to be upset if you don't, if they don't
get the coach a like like an O. B J
or Mayfield, perhaps you're kind of asking for that in
a way, right. I think what we said yesterday bears repeating.
(07:17):
Has Lem, owner of the Browns, is probably the third
or fourth most mentioned owner in football. He likes that
or he doesn't have to be in the news as
much as he is. Right, Craft were to be on
that list, but it was not his choice, right, so
(07:38):
it didn't end how he owe it. But the reality
is what, I don't know what you're even saying. I mean.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific r J.
There is a trend this weekend in the NFL. It's
on the A f C side of the playoffs. The
(08:00):
Houston Texans are getting nine and a half points currently
on pregame dot Com at the Chiefs coming up on Sunday.
I love anything which repeats itself, Like one of my
favorite times of the year is March Madness. And why
because effectively we had we've had sixty four teams, you know,
starting on third, the first Thursday, and those sixty four
(08:22):
teams um have six rounds in order to you know,
win a title, and you can say, what's the first
round record, what's the second round record, etcetera, etcetera. And
to be honest, that kind of repetition lends itself to trends. Oh,
if the team wins the first two rounds, what happens
in the third? And what we do is we put
(08:45):
out our bracket picking tips every year, which are really
nice because there's a lot of history to them. So
this trend is fascinating when you have a team that's
been outscored on the season, okay, and then they reach
the division round. So right now, the Houston Texans have
(09:08):
been outscored this season. You look at the points they scored,
the points are opponents scored, Houston scored less, their opponents
have scored more. A team in that situation since two
thousand this century oh and seven in this round a
team has never made the conference finals. A f C
(09:33):
NFC being outscored on the season. So, and this is
a regular season stat, it doesn't matter what you do
in the playoffs. But even though if you count the playoffs,
because by definition, you would have advanced to be in
this divisional round, I don't think no one's ever won
a bye by being outscored. It's almost impossible. So Houston
(09:54):
won an additional game, they've still been outscored by four
points on the season. A team like this this bad
because Fez, it's our belief that close games even out,
and the point differential tells you as much, if not
more about a team than their wins and loss exactly right.
So Houston's nine and three and close games, if they
(10:17):
had just been six and six, that would have taken
three wins away from them. They would not have been
a playoff team because in theory, you're supposed to be
break even on close games that you can say Watson's
gonna make a difference. Okay, wouldn't Russell Wilson be the
guy that would make a difference. He has this year,
but before that, from two thousand and twelve, I think
(10:38):
until last year, Russell Wilson in games decided by seven
points or last three games below. This year, he's done better.
Oh guess what, It's all gonna even out. And I
think running quarterbacks might have a little edge latent games,
but it's a little. It's a little. That's Houston should
probably have three last wins and thus in general they
(10:59):
might be able to win a game by a miracle
in the first round another miracle. History says they don't
win this round. They never have this century. Fox Sports
Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot
com and within the I Heart Radio app search f
(11:19):
s R to listen live.
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Rich Davis
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