January 9, 2020 • 31 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas, RJ Bell and the crew discuss Mike Leach's impact, injuries and lessons for bettors. While Steve Fezzik says he believes the hiring of Mike Leach will lead to Saban never winning another championship, RJ says he disagrees - citing if he is such a good coach why have no other school's tried to get him as their head coach? Plus, the guys talk about the injuries around the NFL, including Ravens RB Mark Ingram being listed as questionable but this does not change the line in Vegas whatsoever. Also, RJ talks about the changing of the NCAA 3 point line being a good lesson for bettors, citing the average total over/under was too high for Vegas and have since moved it down since, ultimately leading to bettors having to adjust as well, saying you should always keep an eye on the market, especially if you have found a good bet.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Don't listening to Fox Sports where you got pretty home.
This is Straight out of Vegas with the Voice of Vegas,
your host r J Bowmon the pregame show America has
(00:29):
always wanted from the Vegas Trip. Ear's r J bow
(01:00):
You heard it. I'm r J live from Las Vegas
on two hundred FSR stations across this great nation. It
is Thursday, and We've got a lot of NFL to
talk about. We've got a National Championship game coming up
not that far away. Joined in studio one of the
(01:21):
pros who know Brad Powers Physic on a study day,
getting ready. We got a couple of heads up crossfires
on Friday planned big Underdog Physic, Big dog sports. Vettors
listen for the money. Sports fans listen to no more
than their buddies. But you can't have pros without Joe's
(01:43):
He's in l A, He's Jones. Not always good to
be here, r J. And we start on straight out
of Vegas here. As we look ahead, we inch closer
to a three day weekend in the world of football
that includes two football games in the NFL Divisional playoff
games on Saturday, another two on Sunday, and the national
championship game in college football. But as far as today goes,
(02:04):
what is the Vegas lead? None of those things. Now
this is gonna surprise you, so listen closely. Vegas lead
Mike Leach to Mississippi State might be huge when it
comes to the national champion next year, year after next,
couple years. Yes, and Yahoo Sports was the first to
(02:27):
report that Mike Leach formally of Texas Tech and Washington State,
is now the head coach at Mississippi State, which makes
the Egg Bowl next year against Lane Kiffin that much
more interesting, no doubt about it. And listen all the
college knowledge, Brad Powers, that's probably the guy to ask
why is it? And this was one in the round table.
(02:48):
You pushed Vegas leads, you said, I said no, you
said Vegas lead. I said, okay, take it away. Yeah.
And I am officially doubling on r J on a
bet you and I made about a month ago and
I said, believe it or not, Nick Saban will never
win another national championship at Alabama. I am doubling down
(03:09):
on that bet. Why, well, his path, Nick Saban just
got harder with today's announcement of Mike Leach being hired
Mississippi State, and it got harder even after we made
that bet when Lane Kiffin was hired to be the
head coach at Old miss Lane Kiffin to me, it's
more Lane Kiffin. It's more about recruiting. I think Lane
Kiffin is good enough to take. So where have we
(03:29):
seen that? Oh, we've seen it. Where where a place?
He's one? Two champion places games? Florida Atlantic? Yeah, okay,
so he recruits really well for Florida Atlantic. He did
a good job recruiting at s C in Tennessee. So
how how many? Uh? I mean, what was the big
win and what was the big Bowl game? And those
for those teams? Uh? There there really wasn't one. Okay, continue?
(03:53):
Fair enough? Are j oh listen, I hear you. I
think it's a good conversation. But I here's what I know.
Any team in the SEC could have had him last year, right,
And what did they all say? Thanks? No? Thanks? And
then is it me? Was there a bid war for
(04:14):
his services this year? A little bit? Really? Well? No,
not among it like a major school. Who was the
other school? There was talks like Missouri might be interesting talks? Yeah? Okay,
So what I would say is this when you have
the SEC, which is very good at picking every element
(04:35):
of their football, coaches on down players, who to pay,
how much to pay, you know, all those things with
the players, they are right, you know, great at the SEC.
They're saying, you know Kiffin, Yeah he was a fine coordinator.
Maybe not actually who knows, he doesn't. He shouldn't be
coaching an SEC school a team. It's been a how
(05:00):
long has it been since he was in Alabama? He
coached three years at four Atlantic three years ago, so
literally there was two or I mean three years so
year one everyone said no, and let's be candid, he
would have taken the job at New Mexico. Right. No,
he was Wyoming. No, he was making he was on
(05:22):
the beach. He's making a million a year. You sound,
you know, you sound like as some of these normal
talk radio guys acting like they understand Lane Kiffen. You
don't think he hated being outside of the big boys.
He hated it, no doubt, not even in the Power five.
I mean I don't know, maybe not Wyoming, right, but
well let's agree to this. Any Power five jobs, absolutely
(05:44):
he would have taken it Northwestern, he would have taken
it Maryland taken it. So how many Power five schools
are So sixty five schools had a chance in year
one they said no, sixty five and year two, so
now we have a hundred and thirty no thank you,
sixty five and year three boom right in my head,
(06:05):
no thank you. And finally this year one out of
all those schools said yes. So out of uh to
sixty about two d and sixty or so schools, one
said yes. But we're supposed to be scared. Where do
you think, Jonas? I would not be scared, But I do.
(06:27):
I do like I do like the Hires because I
do think Lane Kiffin is is a good coach, but
I don't know that it's this, you know, going to
shake up the conference type coach, no doubt. And I do,
though agree with Brad. I'm r J. Bell. That was
Jonas knocks. Now we're gonna ask Brad Powers a question.
I don't agree with you. With Kivin, I very much
(06:50):
agree with Leach. Yeah. And here's the thing with Mike Leach.
Is Mike Leach ever gonna win a national championship? No,
but he can prevent a guy like Nick Saban from
winning a national championship. Why because of the quirkiness on
Mike Leech's offense. It's a headache for these teams to prepare.
It's gonna be unlike any other offense than any of
these coaches have seen in the SEC. And you know
(07:12):
the chances of a Mississippi State beating in Alabama, you
know that chance might have been five ten percent in
the past. Now with Mike Leach there, not necessarily like
he's gonna be a great recruiter and have a bunch
of better players. But because the quirkiness of the offense,
the chances of the Mississippi State beating in Alabama now,
I'd argue have doubled r J because of the quirkiness.
And I also think it's because of the high variants
(07:35):
style play. So let's that sounds kind of fancy, but
let's think about Wisconsin football. Low variants. They're best game,
they're worst game, not gonna be that far apart why
they don't throw the ball law what creates variants turnovers?
And I would make the case that they're typically pretty motivated.
(07:58):
You don't see the big peaks and valley now with
a team like or with an offense like Leeches offense.
It's not about motivation as much. It's about this offense
can do shockingly well in a given situation. It might
be because of the way the other teams playing it.
(08:18):
It might just be the way the ball bounces that day.
So I do agree with you. When they are a
big dog, When Leeches team is a big dog, they've
got a better chance than most any other team in
the country when they're a big dog. And the prep time,
as you said, regardless of the Alabama's beat Mississippi State. Now,
(08:39):
the prep time in the off season leading up, you know,
the camps all the way up to the week of
the game. They can't, you know, be peeking ahead of
the L s U game or whatever. I think it's
a big deal. And I'm also anxious, anxious to see
Leech in action. If you go back to Texas Tech.
This is what I like to do. When a guy leaves,
(09:01):
what happens, all right? So, Kansas University, Mark Mangino, the
Orange Bowl win. Kansas football won the Orange Bowl? What
eleven years ago? And what's happened since? When they win
a game on the road, it's the front page the
(09:21):
day today, right, Man Gino was a heck of a coach.
What's Tech done? By the way, a guy who is
an NFL coach today couldn't win at Tech when uh again,
if you actually take out the Kansas games, give us
that staff Cliff Kingsbury while at Texas Tech. Take out
(09:43):
the Kansas games thirteen and thirty five in the Big twelve,
and you can say, well, why take out the Kansas
because they were that bad? Right? So still nineteen and
thirty five. Leech was forty seven and thirty three in
the Big twelve when he was at Texas and I
think he won. He didn't He make a Bowl eleven
straight year, ten straight years, ten for ten of Texas Tech.
I mean, Wow's And I guess the last thing I'll say,
(10:07):
how do we have Leeches um a t s Yeah,
and his entire career, Mike leaches against the spread fifty
five percent his last eight years of Washington State. So
with the Vegas report card, Leech way way above average coach.
When it comes to disrupting potentially the SEC, it's a big, big,
(10:28):
big higher. It's gonna be interesting to what and plus
those games, if you're stuck watching one of those games,
it's gonna be more interest. Absolutely, it is. So any
thoughts on Washington State. I have the guy for Washington State.
It's the Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich. Very peculiar. Are
you predicting this or you're hoping that the A D
S listening. I will make a prediction, and I'll offer
(10:51):
you let's just go fifty fifty of all the guys
they could hire, I'll say Nick Rolovich first the field
fifty bet. No, thanks, Okay, I mean, listen, Here's this
is a great, great, great, great tip. It's a way
of life actually for you out there. If someone who
(11:12):
knows a lot more about something offers you a bet,
it's one thing. If it was just a general debate
and a bet breaks out, then you can think, yeah,
he knows more. But I got a good feel with this.
But if someone walks up to you and says, you
see that sign that says it's fifteen miles of the
city limits, I think it's really twelve. Don't bet because
(11:34):
that guy dug that sign up the night before, moved
it three miles. Put it back in the ground. That's
what the gamblers used to do. When Feasik about a
year ago, was he looked at Brian and goes, you know,
I can bench two hundred pounds, and Brad goes, no way.
They ended up how much did you bet? And what
(11:56):
did I do? You stand back and said not, I
don't want any part of that because Fezzig, who is
the dirtiest player in the game, is the one proposing
the bet. So now you're proposing a bat. Are there
even odds on this yet? So you're making your own odds.
That tells me you get some inside info. Brad Powers,
national radio co host reporting Who's gonna be the next
(12:21):
Washing predicting Nick Rolovich Hawaii head coach? Your new Washington
State head coach, that's the prediction. Well, first of all,
that makes a couple of sense, a couple of a couple.
That makes sense on a couple of points because Nick
Rolovich and Mike Leach have a relationship. Those guys get along,
They're both similar personalities, so I could see Leech maybe
recommending Rolovich is the guy to take over for him.
(12:43):
So I like Brad's bet there. If indeed the line
does come up. Here's the other one in going back
to Mike Leach at Mississippi State, Bruce Feldman of Fox
actually had this on Twitter that the freshman quarterback Will Rogers,
who was there and went to Mississippi State after Joe
Moore had was fired, he now gets to play in
the system that was literally built for him. His dad,
(13:04):
Wyatt Rogers, coached Gardner Minshew, and Mike Leach was the
only Power five coach besides Mississippi State to offer Will
Rogers a scholarship. So this makes a ton of sense
for Mike Leach. He gets to work with the quarterback
that he also recruited to come to Washington State. That's fascinating.
(13:25):
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. One
of the things I think we saw with Minshew is
the players that can excel as a quarterback in a
Leech system different than the players that are going to
(13:45):
excel another system. And what would you say is the
main characteristic that the other than an armor doesn't get tired? Yeah,
very good point. Their quick decision making. Yeah, and that's
the thing Leeches off and seems complicated. And uh, my
best friend's brother coached for many years or actually two
(14:06):
of his brother's coach with Leach at Texas Tech. I
was down there for a wedding one to Lubbic. Not
a lot of going on down there, I'll tell you.
But what I'll say is I like it though. But
what I'll say. What I'll say is that the the
enthusiasm around, it's a fun program. You know. If anyone
(14:30):
that's a fan of Friday Night Lights, he did a
cameo on there. He's he wrote a book, uh something
with the sword Don't take My Sword or something leached it.
But just a different thinker, you know. And if you
want to see have some giggles, go to YouTube and
listen to a few of his press conferences are some
(14:51):
of his best lines. Because leeches uh has a very
eclectic intellect. But the offense is simple. It's it's almost
like what the Rams do where it seems complicated, but
there's really like three if thens for each receiver. That's
why they on short weeks, That's why um they can
(15:14):
go no huddle so easily. There's really not a lot
of play calling. It's a lot of we got a
couple of options each individual player, and based on what
the defense does, we know what we're gonna do. Does
that make sense? Perfect? Is that how you understand it?
That's exactly how it is. When we come back, we're
gonna talk about again. This is Brad Powers making another
(15:38):
executive decision. Let's give him credit. Why don't you tease it? Well,
we have two player injuries in the NFL, and Vegas
is telling you that these two key players might not
be worth as much as you think. Brad Powers just
did it. Man, that's coming up next. He's r J. Bell.
That guy's Brad Powers, and I'm Jonahs Knocks And this
is the pregame show you've always wanted right here on
(15:58):
Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three
pm Pacific. I'm r J. Bell, we are Straight out
of Vegas, and I'm jonahs Knock's voice of you the Fan.
Coming up here. In just a couple of moments, we
will have some market reactions to a couple of injury
(16:19):
updates in the NFL. Yeah, what does Vegas say? That's
always important? Thanks for joining us today. We're gonna be
talking a little Green Bay Packers. How good are they
compared to last year? How good is Aaron Rodgers in
the offense compared to last year. We're on five days
a week on hundreds of FSR stations nationwide. Also Fox
(16:41):
Sports Radio dot Com, I Heart Radio, app, Serious x AM,
and anytime on podcast just search r J bow And
we got an announcement here another station hundreds plus one
will call it. And I tell you the crew at
fs are hardest working. I mean, you're right there then
(17:04):
building Jonas uh Her, I mean they're they're grinding the
the the guys who are trying to get more affiliate,
I mean, everybody except for John Ramos. Everybody here. I
mean listen, when you have two last names like that,
don't even question the guy Ramos Ramos, you know exactly.
It's like who knows where he's been. We want to
(17:25):
welcome Fox Sports eight fifty and on the FM dow
F and Virginia Beach. Thanks to Bob Sinclair and Dave
Morgan at the station for making it happen right now
here in Vegas on the strip fifty seven degrees and
the neon is flowing, so r J. We have a
(17:48):
couple of injury updates in the NFL. First off, mark
ingram running back for the Baltimore Ravens. Return to practice
was limited. His status is questionable for Saturday's playoff game.
What has been the market market reaction to Ingram, who
is expected to play? Yes, and Jonas just took you know,
(18:08):
it was like Jonas said, you know something I want
to shine today. I want to step on Brad Powers.
I mean, you know, I wonder if he's a little
is there a little envy brewin? We can delete it
from the podcast. I'll just reacind of dirty. Well, you
know that's the important So Ingram, there has been news
and what was the source? And we we like in Vegas,
(18:29):
we like to give sources. So sources told Adam Schefter
from ESPN that even though not that sore, oh okay,
Ingram is questionable on the injury report, he's likely to
play this week. Alright. So the market before this announcement,
the line in the game for Baltimore was Baltimore nine
and a half point favorite. Thanks for not jumping in there, Jonas,
(18:52):
And then after the announcement line Baltimore nine and a
half point favorite. Hold on a second, let me do
a little math here. Uh huh, No change, no change,
I you know, I I I kind of thought, why
would mark ingram be moving the line? It kind of
(19:14):
goes to show you once a guy gets a name,
guy's not moving the line. Now it's nice to have
him if he plays, because you've got more depth and
all that stuff. Market though saying we don't give a
care Brad Powers and Studio, do you want to do
the next read and take one of Jonas's just to
make up for it? I mean, listen, you're just a
gracious fellow, Brad. I mean, there's just no doubt about it.
(19:37):
The most important thing you could know this weekend. In fact,
in all of the playoffs in the NFL, you can't
bet every game. So ask yourself, what was your average
NFL sides in a given week? So sixteen games max
sometimes last with buys, I'd say the average better even
(20:00):
if he's a recreational batter, three or four sides, so
let's call it four. Four is one fourth of sixteen.
So every fourth game they're batting. Now there's four games
this weekend. One game. Now, it doesn't mean you can't
(20:22):
have to, but you better have zero some weeks because
if you are batting, every game can be all the
home teams in the Nationals and only away teams in
the American every game for the thousand dollars. If you
do that, you're in trouble. So, Brad, we gave you
a smorges Borg, as they say, buffet as I like
(20:46):
to say, what is the number one factor in any
of the four NFL games? I want to talk about
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, and he reads specifically
off a by in his entire career. We have a
huge sample size here. Twenty plus is going back to
the Philadelphia Eagles days, and in his career, Andy Reid
covers sixty eight percent of the time off of by,
(21:09):
exceeding expectations, that being the Vegas spread by five and
a half points per game. Now, how is it in
the regular season? How is it in the postseason? I
do not know that. Okay, I recall much better in
the regular season, though still pretty good in the postseason.
I'm going by recollection. So what we'll do tomorrow. We've
got a lot of things to do tomorrow. Fazik and
(21:30):
I have a couple of cross fires. He's a huge underdog.
We're gonna get the Andy Reid by information. But I
agree with you. And I also think this Bill O'Brien
not considered a good coach. I'm not saying I agree
with it. I think he probably doesn't get the proper credit.
(21:53):
I mean, he's won his division four out of five years.
That's a rare thing. A lot of teams haven't done
that entire century. Well, you did the research on this.
Thirteen teams have never done it in their history in
the NFL. I mean, I think about that thirt team.
I think we went back to the merger um, is
(22:13):
that right? Yeah, so we went back to Super Bowl
four I guess would have been the first one. So yeah,
But still we're talking fifty years or whatever almost and
thirteen teams have never won their division four out of
five years. Houston is in the midst of doing that,
and now they just had a playoff win. But by
(22:34):
the same token, they've been outscored this season. The opponents
of the Texans have more points than the Texans and
they've been out gained this season. Literally the opponents have
more yards. It sounds like an eight and eight team
if they're lucky, I get to hold Deshaun Watson stuff.
Let's take have we looked you at at Watson and
(22:55):
one score games. I thought we did actually, because you know,
we'll do that during the break because you could say, well,
r J, what about Watson and one score games? But
we'll see, all right. But what we know is that
Russell Wilson, who has been amazing in one score games
this year, was three games below five hundred in his
(23:15):
career entering this year in one score games below five.
So Watson will see. But in general, whenever a team
is winning a lot of close games, that team is overrated.
It's all there is to it. Houston, I think is overrated. Finally,
my total of the decade. Now, this is the decade
(23:37):
of the decade, so we're, you know what, eight days in,
But I love, I do love this total. Tomorrow Physik
usually does the early pick at the end of the
first segment. He's getting bumped and we're gonna literally second
topic after the Vegas lead. Tomorrow, we'll have my total
of the decade. One of the four NFL games. I'm
(24:01):
feeling very very good. In fact, i'll tease it. Andy
Reid's involved. I'm not saying which game it is, but
Andy Reid is involved. When we come back, you've got
the best bet coming up, I have a best bet
college hoops tonight. Tonight College shoots, Brad Powers college hoops
best bet, and then I'm going to tell you what
(24:22):
I believe the number one NFL factor of the week
is that's coming up next to hes R J. Bell.
I'm Jonas Knocks is at the pregame show You've always
wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio
has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch
all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com
and within the I Heart Radio app search f s
(24:44):
R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell. We are
straight out of VESA and I'm Jonas Knocks Voice of
You the Fan. We have a best bet on a
Thursday night, and I think this might be only the
second time, maybe the first, that we go to the
college basketball world to get it this season. Listen, this
is the way gambling is is. On July four, the
(25:06):
hot dog eating contest is often one of the bigger bets.
And it's like anything else where. If you have an
NFL game, that college game doesn't matter, right if somehow
they're playing on this day. But if that NFL game
isn't there, that college games getting everyone's attention. It's human
nature and betting. Whatever the top event is that day,
(25:28):
that's the event that gets disproportionate number of bets. Brad,
No one said you were squares, So I think you
like this baby. You got a pick tonight. Yeah, best
bet for me is tonight in college basketball, Oregon at
home minus three over Arizona. And it fits one of
my favorite handicapping philosophies this time of the year and
(25:49):
its strength of scheduled disparity. Why is it important? Because
these teams have now played a majority of their games
nonconference and now they're just getting in the conference play
and this is the one time of year where you
get huge disparities and strength of schedule, and we have
that here on the surface. The teams look close. The
(26:09):
line says it's close. Oregon is a twelve and three,
Arizona is eleven and three. Not when you dive into
the strength of schedule, Oregon played they much tougher schedule,
top twenty five in terms of strength, Arizona not even
in the top one. Because of that value on the Ducks.
Best bet Oregon minus three. Check out the Big Brain
(26:30):
bread good Stuff rat powers. Now let's talk just a
minute or two about the college basketball season three point line.
There was an adjustment in the off season. What was it?
They moved the three point line back about a foot
and a half? Are j a foot and a half?
So like almost right? About eighteen inches sixteen point seven
(26:51):
five to be exactly all right, there you go, now
we're talking all right back, Okay. Now, obviously last threes,
a smaller percentage of threes are going to be made
from a greater distance. The market Vegas attempted to estimate that.
Initially the market was wrong. Yeah, they didn't do a
(27:13):
good job because if you blindly bet the under first
two weeks of the college basketball regular season, you would
have had fifty eight percent in every game. So first
two weeks fifty percent over hundreds agains. Think about that.
But Vegas doesn't sleep for long. They might listen, they
might sleep right, they might be a little off, but
(27:37):
he never sleeps. But they don't sleep that long. They're
dumb though. I guess it's the batters are coming in.
There's a lot of dumb bookies out there. I mean,
right or wrong. You've been around, Oh my gosh, I
don't think they graduated high school. I'm the summer. I'm
just being honest. I mean, if you have to read
and write, I don't think they could have that's funny.
(28:02):
But they did quickly adjust. So what happened to the
So the average total the first two weeks was and
where did it move to? One? One and a half
was the average? So the first two weeks moved to
now one thirty nine? Since all right, they said, hey
we're too high, boom, and how's the over under been?
Actually the over its hit, so just a smidge abuff
(28:22):
this alright, So this is Jonas, This is such a
great teaching moment. Is the idea that betters had an
idea that, hey, these totals are too high. You bet
you would have one and one big market. Other bettors,
the bookmakers, they said, oh, let's bring these totals down.
(28:43):
They found that exact equilibrium point, and here we are
right around. So if you have a winning situation, you've
always got to keep an eye on the market because
if it's adjusting against you, you cannot win. The only
reason you're winning originally in this case was the line
was a couple of points too high. The total when
it came down huh, No, more, no more winning on
(29:06):
the under quickly? Are there odds people that are in
charge of the odds for specific sports, meaning that way
they won't get distracted by the NFL and they've got
too many things to focus on. There. There's oddsmakers for
college basketball, the NHL. Except Yeah, So this is this
is fascinating because think of it like gas stations in
a city. There might be fifty gas stations in any
(29:28):
given day. When the new uh per barrel prices come out,
you might say, who's gonna put up the price first?
That's the world opener. So there's only a handful of
books that have the ambition to when I put up
that first number, a book like that. They do specialize
most of the books. They just sit back and say,
(29:50):
we don't got to figure it out. Will have three
of the big boys put it up and we'll just
copy them. And you know, I'm not saying that's wrong,
but I'm saying the book makers who put up the
world opener, those are the bookmakers I respect. All Right,
I was talking about what really impressed a number. I
think that's not being discussed enough, and I think it's
(30:14):
how good San Francisco is at home so when I
think about home field advantage, didn't jump even this year
didn't jump up at me. The best point differential in
the entire NFL forty Niners at home. They outscored their
opponents in eight games by one hundred and two points.
(30:40):
So that's almost thirteen points a game, outscoring their opponents.
San France at home, San France home here. And remember
Cousins not good in all one o'clock games. And this
is a Saturday game, so you also have not only
the time adjustment, one less day. For a man that
loves his routines, go
Don't listening to Fox Sports where you got pretty home.
This is Straight out of Vegas with the Voice of Vegas,
your host r J Bowmon the pregame show America has
(00:29):
always wanted from the Vegas Trip. Ear's r J bow
(01:00):
You heard it. I'm r J live from Las Vegas
on two hundred FSR stations across this great nation. It
is Thursday, and We've got a lot of NFL to
talk about. We've got a National Championship game coming up
not that far away. Joined in studio one of the
(01:21):
pros who know Brad Powers Physic on a study day,
getting ready. We got a couple of heads up crossfires
on Friday planned big Underdog Physic, Big dog sports. Vettors
listen for the money. Sports fans listen to no more
than their buddies. But you can't have pros without Joe's
(01:43):
He's in l A, He's Jones. Not always good to
be here, r J. And we start on straight out
of Vegas here. As we look ahead, we inch closer
to a three day weekend in the world of football
that includes two football games in the NFL Divisional playoff
games on Saturday, another two on Sunday, and the national
championship game in college football. But as far as today goes,
(02:04):
what is the Vegas lead? None of those things. Now
this is gonna surprise you, so listen closely. Vegas lead
Mike Leach to Mississippi State might be huge when it
comes to the national champion next year, year after next,
couple years. Yes, and Yahoo Sports was the first to
(02:27):
report that Mike Leach formally of Texas Tech and Washington State,
is now the head coach at Mississippi State, which makes
the Egg Bowl next year against Lane Kiffin that much
more interesting, no doubt about it. And listen all the
college knowledge, Brad Powers, that's probably the guy to ask
why is it? And this was one in the round table.
(02:48):
You pushed Vegas leads, you said, I said no, you
said Vegas lead. I said, okay, take it away. Yeah.
And I am officially doubling on r J on a
bet you and I made about a month ago and
I said, believe it or not, Nick Saban will never
win another national championship at Alabama. I am doubling down
(03:09):
on that bet. Why, well, his path, Nick Saban just
got harder with today's announcement of Mike Leach being hired
Mississippi State, and it got harder even after we made
that bet when Lane Kiffin was hired to be the
head coach at Old miss Lane Kiffin to me, it's
more Lane Kiffin. It's more about recruiting. I think Lane
Kiffin is good enough to take. So where have we
(03:29):
seen that? Oh, we've seen it. Where where a place?
He's one? Two champion places games? Florida Atlantic? Yeah, okay,
so he recruits really well for Florida Atlantic. He did
a good job recruiting at s C in Tennessee. So
how how many? Uh? I mean, what was the big
win and what was the big Bowl game? And those
for those teams? Uh? There there really wasn't one. Okay, continue?
(03:53):
Fair enough? Are j oh listen, I hear you. I
think it's a good conversation. But I here's what I know.
Any team in the SEC could have had him last year, right,
And what did they all say? Thanks? No? Thanks? And
then is it me? Was there a bid war for
(04:14):
his services this year? A little bit? Really? Well? No,
not among it like a major school. Who was the
other school? There was talks like Missouri might be interesting talks? Yeah? Okay,
So what I would say is this when you have
the SEC, which is very good at picking every element
(04:35):
of their football, coaches on down players, who to pay,
how much to pay, you know, all those things with
the players, they are right, you know, great at the SEC.
They're saying, you know Kiffin, Yeah he was a fine coordinator.
Maybe not actually who knows, he doesn't. He shouldn't be
coaching an SEC school a team. It's been a how
(05:00):
long has it been since he was in Alabama? He
coached three years at four Atlantic three years ago, so
literally there was two or I mean three years so
year one everyone said no, and let's be candid, he
would have taken the job at New Mexico. Right. No,
he was Wyoming. No, he was making he was on
(05:22):
the beach. He's making a million a year. You sound,
you know, you sound like as some of these normal
talk radio guys acting like they understand Lane Kiffen. You
don't think he hated being outside of the big boys.
He hated it, no doubt, not even in the Power five.
I mean I don't know, maybe not Wyoming, right, but
well let's agree to this. Any Power five jobs, absolutely
(05:44):
he would have taken it Northwestern, he would have taken
it Maryland taken it. So how many Power five schools
are So sixty five schools had a chance in year
one they said no, sixty five and year two, so
now we have a hundred and thirty no thank you,
sixty five and year three boom right in my head,
(06:05):
no thank you. And finally this year one out of
all those schools said yes. So out of uh to
sixty about two d and sixty or so schools, one
said yes. But we're supposed to be scared. Where do
you think, Jonas? I would not be scared, But I do.
(06:27):
I do like I do like the Hires because I
do think Lane Kiffin is is a good coach, but
I don't know that it's this, you know, going to
shake up the conference type coach, no doubt. And I do,
though agree with Brad. I'm r J. Bell. That was
Jonas knocks. Now we're gonna ask Brad Powers a question.
I don't agree with you. With Kivin, I very much
(06:50):
agree with Leach. Yeah. And here's the thing with Mike Leach.
Is Mike Leach ever gonna win a national championship? No,
but he can prevent a guy like Nick Saban from
winning a national championship. Why because of the quirkiness on
Mike Leech's offense. It's a headache for these teams to prepare.
It's gonna be unlike any other offense than any of
these coaches have seen in the SEC. And you know
(07:12):
the chances of a Mississippi State beating in Alabama, you
know that chance might have been five ten percent in
the past. Now with Mike Leach there, not necessarily like
he's gonna be a great recruiter and have a bunch
of better players. But because the quirkiness of the offense,
the chances of the Mississippi State beating in Alabama now,
I'd argue have doubled r J because of the quirkiness.
And I also think it's because of the high variants
(07:35):
style play. So let's that sounds kind of fancy, but
let's think about Wisconsin football. Low variants. They're best game,
they're worst game, not gonna be that far apart why
they don't throw the ball law what creates variants turnovers?
And I would make the case that they're typically pretty motivated.
(07:58):
You don't see the big peaks and valley now with
a team like or with an offense like Leeches offense.
It's not about motivation as much. It's about this offense
can do shockingly well in a given situation. It might
be because of the way the other teams playing it.
(08:18):
It might just be the way the ball bounces that day.
So I do agree with you. When they are a
big dog, When Leeches team is a big dog, they've
got a better chance than most any other team in
the country when they're a big dog. And the prep time,
as you said, regardless of the Alabama's beat Mississippi State. Now,
(08:39):
the prep time in the off season leading up, you know,
the camps all the way up to the week of
the game. They can't, you know, be peeking ahead of
the L s U game or whatever. I think it's
a big deal. And I'm also anxious, anxious to see
Leech in action. If you go back to Texas Tech.
This is what I like to do. When a guy leaves,
(09:01):
what happens, all right? So, Kansas University, Mark Mangino, the
Orange Bowl win. Kansas football won the Orange Bowl? What
eleven years ago? And what's happened since? When they win
a game on the road, it's the front page the
(09:21):
day today, right, Man Gino was a heck of a coach.
What's Tech done? By the way, a guy who is
an NFL coach today couldn't win at Tech when uh again,
if you actually take out the Kansas games, give us
that staff Cliff Kingsbury while at Texas Tech. Take out
(09:43):
the Kansas games thirteen and thirty five in the Big twelve,
and you can say, well, why take out the Kansas
because they were that bad? Right? So still nineteen and
thirty five. Leech was forty seven and thirty three in
the Big twelve when he was at Texas and I
think he won. He didn't He make a Bowl eleven
straight year, ten straight years, ten for ten of Texas Tech.
I mean, Wow's And I guess the last thing I'll say,
(10:07):
how do we have Leeches um a t s Yeah,
and his entire career, Mike leaches against the spread fifty
five percent his last eight years of Washington State. So
with the Vegas report card, Leech way way above average coach.
When it comes to disrupting potentially the SEC, it's a big, big,
(10:28):
big higher. It's gonna be interesting to what and plus
those games, if you're stuck watching one of those games,
it's gonna be more interest. Absolutely, it is. So any
thoughts on Washington State. I have the guy for Washington State.
It's the Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich. Very peculiar. Are
you predicting this or you're hoping that the A D
S listening. I will make a prediction, and I'll offer
(10:51):
you let's just go fifty fifty of all the guys
they could hire, I'll say Nick Rolovich first the field
fifty bet. No, thanks, Okay, I mean, listen, Here's this
is a great, great, great, great tip. It's a way
of life actually for you out there. If someone who
(11:12):
knows a lot more about something offers you a bet,
it's one thing. If it was just a general debate
and a bet breaks out, then you can think, yeah,
he knows more. But I got a good feel with this.
But if someone walks up to you and says, you
see that sign that says it's fifteen miles of the
city limits, I think it's really twelve. Don't bet because
(11:34):
that guy dug that sign up the night before, moved
it three miles. Put it back in the ground. That's
what the gamblers used to do. When Feasik about a
year ago, was he looked at Brian and goes, you know,
I can bench two hundred pounds, and Brad goes, no way.
They ended up how much did you bet? And what
(11:56):
did I do? You stand back and said not, I
don't want any part of that because Fezzig, who is
the dirtiest player in the game, is the one proposing
the bet. So now you're proposing a bat. Are there
even odds on this yet? So you're making your own odds.
That tells me you get some inside info. Brad Powers,
national radio co host reporting Who's gonna be the next
(12:21):
Washing predicting Nick Rolovich Hawaii head coach? Your new Washington
State head coach, that's the prediction. Well, first of all,
that makes a couple of sense, a couple of a couple.
That makes sense on a couple of points because Nick
Rolovich and Mike Leach have a relationship. Those guys get along,
They're both similar personalities, so I could see Leech maybe
recommending Rolovich is the guy to take over for him.
(12:43):
So I like Brad's bet there. If indeed the line
does come up. Here's the other one in going back
to Mike Leach at Mississippi State, Bruce Feldman of Fox
actually had this on Twitter that the freshman quarterback Will Rogers,
who was there and went to Mississippi State after Joe
Moore had was fired, he now gets to play in
the system that was literally built for him. His dad,
(13:04):
Wyatt Rogers, coached Gardner Minshew, and Mike Leach was the
only Power five coach besides Mississippi State to offer Will
Rogers a scholarship. So this makes a ton of sense
for Mike Leach. He gets to work with the quarterback
that he also recruited to come to Washington State. That's fascinating.
(13:25):
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. One
of the things I think we saw with Minshew is
the players that can excel as a quarterback in a
Leech system different than the players that are going to
(13:45):
excel another system. And what would you say is the
main characteristic that the other than an armor doesn't get tired? Yeah,
very good point. Their quick decision making. Yeah, and that's
the thing Leeches off and seems complicated. And uh, my
best friend's brother coached for many years or actually two
(14:06):
of his brother's coach with Leach at Texas Tech. I
was down there for a wedding one to Lubbic. Not
a lot of going on down there, I'll tell you.
But what I'll say is I like it though. But
what I'll say. What I'll say is that the the
enthusiasm around, it's a fun program. You know. If anyone
(14:30):
that's a fan of Friday Night Lights, he did a
cameo on there. He's he wrote a book, uh something
with the sword Don't take My Sword or something leached it.
But just a different thinker, you know. And if you
want to see have some giggles, go to YouTube and
listen to a few of his press conferences are some
(14:51):
of his best lines. Because leeches uh has a very
eclectic intellect. But the offense is simple. It's it's almost
like what the Rams do where it seems complicated, but
there's really like three if thens for each receiver. That's
why they on short weeks, That's why um they can
(15:14):
go no huddle so easily. There's really not a lot
of play calling. It's a lot of we got a
couple of options each individual player, and based on what
the defense does, we know what we're gonna do. Does
that make sense? Perfect? Is that how you understand it?
That's exactly how it is. When we come back, we're
gonna talk about again. This is Brad Powers making another
(15:38):
executive decision. Let's give him credit. Why don't you tease it? Well,
we have two player injuries in the NFL, and Vegas
is telling you that these two key players might not
be worth as much as you think. Brad Powers just
did it. Man, that's coming up next. He's r J. Bell.
That guy's Brad Powers, and I'm Jonahs Knocks And this
is the pregame show you've always wanted right here on
(15:58):
Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three
pm Pacific. I'm r J. Bell, we are Straight out
of Vegas, and I'm jonahs Knock's voice of you the Fan.
Coming up here. In just a couple of moments, we
will have some market reactions to a couple of injury
(16:19):
updates in the NFL. Yeah, what does Vegas say? That's
always important? Thanks for joining us today. We're gonna be
talking a little Green Bay Packers. How good are they
compared to last year? How good is Aaron Rodgers in
the offense compared to last year. We're on five days
a week on hundreds of FSR stations nationwide. Also Fox
(16:41):
Sports Radio dot Com, I Heart Radio, app, Serious x AM,
and anytime on podcast just search r J bow And
we got an announcement here another station hundreds plus one
will call it. And I tell you the crew at
fs are hardest working. I mean, you're right there then
(17:04):
building Jonas uh Her, I mean they're they're grinding the
the the guys who are trying to get more affiliate,
I mean, everybody except for John Ramos. Everybody here. I
mean listen, when you have two last names like that,
don't even question the guy Ramos Ramos, you know exactly.
It's like who knows where he's been. We want to
(17:25):
welcome Fox Sports eight fifty and on the FM dow
F and Virginia Beach. Thanks to Bob Sinclair and Dave
Morgan at the station for making it happen right now
here in Vegas on the strip fifty seven degrees and
the neon is flowing, so r J. We have a
(17:48):
couple of injury updates in the NFL. First off, mark
ingram running back for the Baltimore Ravens. Return to practice
was limited. His status is questionable for Saturday's playoff game.
What has been the market market reaction to Ingram, who
is expected to play? Yes, and Jonas just took you know,
(18:08):
it was like Jonas said, you know something I want
to shine today. I want to step on Brad Powers.
I mean, you know, I wonder if he's a little
is there a little envy brewin? We can delete it
from the podcast. I'll just reacind of dirty. Well, you
know that's the important So Ingram, there has been news
and what was the source? And we we like in Vegas,
(18:29):
we like to give sources. So sources told Adam Schefter
from ESPN that even though not that sore, oh okay,
Ingram is questionable on the injury report, he's likely to
play this week. Alright. So the market before this announcement,
the line in the game for Baltimore was Baltimore nine
and a half point favorite. Thanks for not jumping in there, Jonas,
(18:52):
And then after the announcement line Baltimore nine and a
half point favorite. Hold on a second, let me do
a little math here. Uh huh, No change, no change,
I you know, I I I kind of thought, why
would mark ingram be moving the line? It kind of
(19:14):
goes to show you once a guy gets a name,
guy's not moving the line. Now it's nice to have
him if he plays, because you've got more depth and
all that stuff. Market though saying we don't give a
care Brad Powers and Studio, do you want to do
the next read and take one of Jonas's just to
make up for it? I mean, listen, you're just a
gracious fellow, Brad. I mean, there's just no doubt about it.
(19:37):
The most important thing you could know this weekend. In fact,
in all of the playoffs in the NFL, you can't
bet every game. So ask yourself, what was your average
NFL sides in a given week? So sixteen games max
sometimes last with buys, I'd say the average better even
(20:00):
if he's a recreational batter, three or four sides, so
let's call it four. Four is one fourth of sixteen.
So every fourth game they're batting. Now there's four games
this weekend. One game. Now, it doesn't mean you can't
(20:22):
have to, but you better have zero some weeks because
if you are batting, every game can be all the
home teams in the Nationals and only away teams in
the American every game for the thousand dollars. If you
do that, you're in trouble. So, Brad, we gave you
a smorges Borg, as they say, buffet as I like
(20:46):
to say, what is the number one factor in any
of the four NFL games? I want to talk about
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid, and he reads specifically
off a by in his entire career. We have a
huge sample size here. Twenty plus is going back to
the Philadelphia Eagles days, and in his career, Andy Reid
covers sixty eight percent of the time off of by,
(21:09):
exceeding expectations, that being the Vegas spread by five and
a half points per game. Now, how is it in
the regular season? How is it in the postseason? I
do not know that. Okay, I recall much better in
the regular season, though still pretty good in the postseason.
I'm going by recollection. So what we'll do tomorrow. We've
got a lot of things to do tomorrow. Fazik and
(21:30):
I have a couple of cross fires. He's a huge underdog.
We're gonna get the Andy Reid by information. But I
agree with you. And I also think this Bill O'Brien
not considered a good coach. I'm not saying I agree
with it. I think he probably doesn't get the proper credit.
(21:53):
I mean, he's won his division four out of five years.
That's a rare thing. A lot of teams haven't done
that entire century. Well, you did the research on this.
Thirteen teams have never done it in their history in
the NFL. I mean, I think about that thirt team.
I think we went back to the merger um, is
(22:13):
that right? Yeah, so we went back to Super Bowl
four I guess would have been the first one. So yeah,
But still we're talking fifty years or whatever almost and
thirteen teams have never won their division four out of
five years. Houston is in the midst of doing that,
and now they just had a playoff win. But by
(22:34):
the same token, they've been outscored this season. The opponents
of the Texans have more points than the Texans and
they've been out gained this season. Literally the opponents have
more yards. It sounds like an eight and eight team
if they're lucky, I get to hold Deshaun Watson stuff.
Let's take have we looked you at at Watson and
(22:55):
one score games. I thought we did actually, because you know,
we'll do that during the break because you could say, well,
r J, what about Watson and one score games? But
we'll see, all right. But what we know is that
Russell Wilson, who has been amazing in one score games
this year, was three games below five hundred in his
(23:15):
career entering this year in one score games below five.
So Watson will see. But in general, whenever a team
is winning a lot of close games, that team is overrated.
It's all there is to it. Houston, I think is overrated. Finally,
my total of the decade. Now, this is the decade
(23:37):
of the decade, so we're, you know what, eight days in,
But I love, I do love this total. Tomorrow Physik
usually does the early pick at the end of the
first segment. He's getting bumped and we're gonna literally second
topic after the Vegas lead. Tomorrow, we'll have my total
of the decade. One of the four NFL games. I'm
(24:01):
feeling very very good. In fact, i'll tease it. Andy
Reid's involved. I'm not saying which game it is, but
Andy Reid is involved. When we come back, you've got
the best bet coming up, I have a best bet
college hoops tonight. Tonight College shoots, Brad Powers college hoops
best bet, and then I'm going to tell you what
(24:22):
I believe the number one NFL factor of the week
is that's coming up next to hes R J. Bell.
I'm Jonas Knocks is at the pregame show You've always
wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio
has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch
all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com
and within the I Heart Radio app search f s
(24:44):
R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell. We are
straight out of VESA and I'm Jonas Knocks Voice of
You the Fan. We have a best bet on a
Thursday night, and I think this might be only the
second time, maybe the first, that we go to the
college basketball world to get it this season. Listen, this
is the way gambling is is. On July four, the
(25:06):
hot dog eating contest is often one of the bigger bets.
And it's like anything else where. If you have an
NFL game, that college game doesn't matter, right if somehow
they're playing on this day. But if that NFL game
isn't there, that college games getting everyone's attention. It's human
nature and betting. Whatever the top event is that day,
(25:28):
that's the event that gets disproportionate number of bets. Brad,
No one said you were squares, So I think you
like this baby. You got a pick tonight. Yeah, best
bet for me is tonight in college basketball, Oregon at
home minus three over Arizona. And it fits one of
my favorite handicapping philosophies this time of the year and
(25:49):
its strength of scheduled disparity. Why is it important? Because
these teams have now played a majority of their games
nonconference and now they're just getting in the conference play
and this is the one time of year where you
get huge disparities and strength of schedule, and we have
that here on the surface. The teams look close. The
(26:09):
line says it's close. Oregon is a twelve and three,
Arizona is eleven and three. Not when you dive into
the strength of schedule, Oregon played they much tougher schedule,
top twenty five in terms of strength, Arizona not even
in the top one. Because of that value on the Ducks.
Best bet Oregon minus three. Check out the Big Brain
(26:30):
bread good Stuff rat powers. Now let's talk just a
minute or two about the college basketball season three point line.
There was an adjustment in the off season. What was it?
They moved the three point line back about a foot
and a half? Are j a foot and a half?
So like almost right? About eighteen inches sixteen point seven
(26:51):
five to be exactly all right, there you go, now
we're talking all right back, Okay. Now, obviously last threes,
a smaller percentage of threes are going to be made
from a greater distance. The market Vegas attempted to estimate that.
Initially the market was wrong. Yeah, they didn't do a
(27:13):
good job because if you blindly bet the under first
two weeks of the college basketball regular season, you would
have had fifty eight percent in every game. So first
two weeks fifty percent over hundreds agains. Think about that.
But Vegas doesn't sleep for long. They might listen, they
might sleep right, they might be a little off, but
(27:37):
he never sleeps. But they don't sleep that long. They're
dumb though. I guess it's the batters are coming in.
There's a lot of dumb bookies out there. I mean,
right or wrong. You've been around, Oh my gosh, I
don't think they graduated high school. I'm the summer. I'm
just being honest. I mean, if you have to read
and write, I don't think they could have that's funny.
(28:02):
But they did quickly adjust. So what happened to the
So the average total the first two weeks was and
where did it move to? One? One and a half
was the average? So the first two weeks moved to
now one thirty nine? Since all right, they said, hey
we're too high, boom, and how's the over under been?
Actually the over its hit, so just a smidge abuff
(28:22):
this alright, So this is Jonas, This is such a
great teaching moment. Is the idea that betters had an
idea that, hey, these totals are too high. You bet
you would have one and one big market. Other bettors,
the bookmakers, they said, oh, let's bring these totals down.
(28:43):
They found that exact equilibrium point, and here we are
right around. So if you have a winning situation, you've
always got to keep an eye on the market because
if it's adjusting against you, you cannot win. The only
reason you're winning originally in this case was the line
was a couple of points too high. The total when
it came down huh, No, more, no more winning on
(29:06):
the under quickly? Are there odds people that are in
charge of the odds for specific sports, meaning that way
they won't get distracted by the NFL and they've got
too many things to focus on. There. There's oddsmakers for
college basketball, the NHL. Except Yeah, So this is this
is fascinating because think of it like gas stations in
a city. There might be fifty gas stations in any
(29:28):
given day. When the new uh per barrel prices come out,
you might say, who's gonna put up the price first?
That's the world opener. So there's only a handful of
books that have the ambition to when I put up
that first number, a book like that. They do specialize
most of the books. They just sit back and say,
(29:50):
we don't got to figure it out. Will have three
of the big boys put it up and we'll just
copy them. And you know, I'm not saying that's wrong,
but I'm saying the book makers who put up the
world opener, those are the bookmakers I respect. All Right,
I was talking about what really impressed a number. I
think that's not being discussed enough, and I think it's
(30:14):
how good San Francisco is at home so when I
think about home field advantage, didn't jump even this year
didn't jump up at me. The best point differential in
the entire NFL forty Niners at home. They outscored their
opponents in eight games by one hundred and two points.
(30:40):
So that's almost thirteen points a game, outscoring their opponents.
San France at home, San France home here. And remember
Cousins not good in all one o'clock games. And this
is a Saturday game, so you also have not only
the time adjustment, one less day. For a man that
loves his routines, go
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