January 10, 2020 • 31 mins
RJ Bell, Jonas Knox, and the rest of the Straight Outta Vegas crew breakdown the NFL Divisional round playoffs, explaining why they like really Kansas City over Houston, an overlooked aspect of the Baltimore Ravens and why they should be able to handle the Titans, and give out some best bets for the weekend!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports really got Home. This is
straight out of Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your
host r J Bow. Far collect nat the pregame show
(00:28):
America has always wanted. From the Veggat Strap, here's our
J Bow. This is straight out of Vegas with the
(01:08):
voice of Biggest, your host r J Bell. Play that's
men's money. You are now about to witness the strength
of street knowledge live from the Veggat Strip, the pregame
show America has always wanted. And now here's r J Bell.
You heard it. I'm RJ Live from Las Vegas, two
(01:29):
hundred FSR stations across this great nation. And it's a
big day, Big Big Friday. Yeah, pick Palooza. But it's
the last time this entire football season. There's four games
in the weekend at next week too, and then one
that means only three left after Sunday. Let's take advantage. Also, though,
(01:53):
just best bets are going to be strewn throughout the hour.
We're joining studio the pros who know full house rat
powers Steve Physick. Sports betters listen for the money. Sports
fans listen to no more than their bodies. But you
can't have pros with how Joe's He's in l A,
He's Jones. It's not always good to be here, r J.
(02:13):
And Yes, on a day in which we've got four
games in the NFL, we've got a quarterback making his
playoff debut in the National Football League and pressure on
some higher seeds. What is the Vegas lead? I can't lie.
There was a little bit of contention on this one. Physik.
We know where he wanted. Oh just connected it to
(02:36):
say I don't want to hear about my love of
Jimmy g But no, no, no, that's coming soon. We've
got We announced it yesterday, the r J Bell Over
Under Division Round Total over under of the decade of
the two thousand and twenties, best one so far. And
let's get to it, guys. We go to Kansas City,
the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. This is
(02:59):
coming up on Sunday right now on pregame dot com.
The Chiefs the home team, a nine and a half
point favorite. The total in this game on pregame dot
com is right now now. This total could be over
or it could be under. Let's break this game. I
promise it's one of the two let's break it down.
Fez number one factor. If you just had not on
(03:21):
the total the whole game, if you just had one factor,
that's all you could share with the nation, what would
it be? Kansas City underrated. A big part of that
the fact that Mahomes missed three games, and frankly, quite
a few games Mahomes played, he was not so that
Kansas City offense it looks really good in the stats
are j but bottom line, it's even better than what
(03:44):
the underlying season long stats say because of those three
games with Matt Moore and those three games with the
compromise Mahomes. Yeah, I think that's one part of it.
And you were at the forefront when it came to
talking about Kansas City like four or five weeks ago.
Physic first one underrated, and the rationale at the time
(04:05):
was listen when Mahomes was healthy, first four games there
were four now and after that he was banged up,
then he was out, then he was banged up coming back.
He got not listened. There's some subjectivity. It's like it's
not when he wins the first game is when he
gets or you know that wins that next when he's healthy.
But you could see it. I mean it was pretty visible.
(04:26):
I thought we could debate one game or the other,
but I thought it was pretty visible that he was hobbled.
So what you look for in the playoffs is a
time when the players, the team itself is better now
then it was across the season. So imagine a situation
of Tom Brady and his prime missed ten games. Right,
(04:48):
you could blend all those stats in, but would that
be the story or would it be how they play
when Brady was in there and how they play when
Mahomes was in there. Because he finished number two in
QBR this year, behind only Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees third.
By the way, for all those Drew Brees haters, and
by the way, Drew Brees had a better QBR the
(05:11):
last four or five games, and he did on the season.
It was still third best. But his arms tired. He's
too old. That's what I'm hearing on the different talk shows.
It doesn't make a lot of sense, But okay, all right.
I think there's another reason Kansas City is underrated, and
that's because of the defense. Brad. We talked about this
in college a bunch. If you have a new coordinator
(05:33):
or a new coach has multiple coordinators even more so
that are different. If all you did was faded team
the first third of the season with the new coordinator,
pass them the middle third, and then play on them
the last third. So pessimistic, neutral, optimistic. I think you're
at right there. You totally agree because it's opposite of
(05:57):
what the public does because at the start of the season,
the like, there's all this optimism, Hey, we got a
new coordinator. The last coordinator stuck. That's why we got
rid of them with this new guy. And that's why
they're getting rid of the guys the time. Right, they're
usually not retiring, like with the nero doing the horses
at the end of Casino, right, I mean, they're usually
getting run out of town. You bring the new guy in,
everyone's excited. Oh look they lost the game. Oh look
(06:19):
they didn't cover that game. Oh man, this guy is
no good, all right, Spagnolia is no good. But then
by the time they start getting kind of a parody
where they're they're kind of familiar with their own offense,
their own defense. That's when everyone's kind of off them.
And then there's that point where the turn happens where
they are now playing better than they had last season,
(06:41):
but the public is still pessimistic because this season hasn't
been great. As we got some numbers on this or
Brad whoever wants to jump in with them, as you
got the last six games that Kansas City defense has
given up eleven and a half points per game. How
good is that? R J Well, number one in the
NFL year to date was the paid three. It's they
give up fourteen per game. So that Kansas City d
(07:03):
the last six weeks has been better than any NFL
team in terms of preventing their opponents from scoring. And
I think the by was seven weeks back, and if
you roll that seventh game in, it's still very impressive. Now. Listen,
points per game can be deceiving, though ultimately in the
long run it matters the probably the most, but in
the short run it can be deceiving. Quality of competition,
(07:24):
red zone efficiency of the opponent, which has a lot
of luck. Yeah, no doubt. But we looked at Football
Outsiders d v o A for the defense. Each of
the eight games or six games took the mean the average,
and they would have been eight in football in the NFL,
eighth best defense now, if Kansas City has the eighth
(07:47):
best defense, lookout, you think, because where where's the offense?
At number one? You got them about Baltimore. I do,
it's close, but k C one, So Baltimore could be
won two on offense, I think you could debate it
either way. And on defense, Baltimore is wear for you.
It's a top five d also in Kansas City, right
(08:09):
in that same range but a little higher, you know. Eight.
We're saying, yes, I mean, these could be two the
best teams we've seen in the decade. I mean, to me,
this is probably the best second best team I can
remember in a while. I mean anything jump out at you,
just that Kansas City. No, they the best, second best team.
They would be the best team overall and over the
(08:31):
last four years if it was not for Baltimore. Oh
so you have the number on that you're saying right now,
Kansas City's power raiding physics the Vegas perspective. You can
get that when it's released at Physics Sports on Twitter.
That's f e z z I K at Physics Sports.
And you're saying that the rating on Casey right now
(08:52):
is higher than any other team has had in the
last four years. Yes. Wow, So we literally have the
two best teams based on feasis power ratings that we've
had in the last four years. Jonas, how many people
who think Kansas City is that good? I think they've
been under the radar for a little while. Um. I
(09:14):
I've thought they were the most dangerous team based on
how the defense has played a lot of the stuff
that you guys have pointed out, and because there's been
such a hype on Baltimore and maybe a little Mahomes fatigue,
if there is such a thing. I just feel like
they've kind of flown under the radar. I think it's that,
and I think the reality is, if you look at
the season, they didn't look like the second best team
a lot of the season. It's just our ability to
(09:36):
say this is what's different right here. They've got their players,
they've got their mature defense understanding the scheme earlier, they
didn't have either first four games, they had the offense,
and they were still four oh even without Tyreek Hill.
Remember he got hurt week when he was out four games. Now,
how many points have you got him worth? Now? He's
(09:57):
worth the points full point. Yeah. So to me, now
that said, I think the Ravens are the better team.
I really do. I think. I mean, you look at
the Ravens. You look at the point differential, look at
the A T s margin nine and one against spread
last ten since they got their defense solidified, and we'll
be talking about that. I think this is the best
(10:20):
team I've seen, maybe since the two thousand seven undefeated Patriots.
And I don't think a short week for their opponent
is the time. It's not gonna be the time to
figure out this complex or this, let's say a very
unusual Baltimore offense. All right, it's time. I'm RJ BO
straight out of Vegas. Now you could I don't know
(10:41):
what Division round games you've bet this decade, but this
is the best well total, this is the best total
you're gonna get. Now. I'm having fun with it because
we don't over sell. But I will say this, this
is probably one of my five best bets of the
year in the NFL. And I like over fifty one
(11:03):
over fifty one Kansas City a couple of reasons. One,
let's get to the obvious. Andy Reid brad Off of
by outstanding and oftentimes you see it on the offensive side. Yeah,
over the over his entire career, Andy Reid, going back
to the Philadelphia days off of by sixty eight percent
(11:23):
against the spread r J pretty good. And and offensively
is where they pick up a lot of that. Absolutely,
and you read more of an offensive minded coaching and
exceeding expectations by five and a half points per game.
And you think about it, you've got a Texans team.
I wouldn't make the case perhaps one of the five
(11:43):
or so worst playoff teams of the decade. I know
that sounds like a lot of people are gonna say
what they've been outgained. Houston outgained on the season. The
opponents have more yards than the Texans. Now, usually if
you get outgained, that's on a good thing. So like,
let's act I get another twenty that's gonna help us
(12:04):
now and then in in a given game, yards can
be deceiving. You know, everyone would say, were the Couboys
remember that a Green Bay game? Okay? But over sixteen
games usually the best teams. Well, by the way, Baltimore
is number one in yard is differential. San Francisco's number three.
By the way, the Dallas Cowboys are too or anythink
(12:26):
about that a second. But additionally, the Texans during the
regular season, and even if you had the playoff game,
have been outscored. Listen, Maybe we're trying to make things
too complex, but the idea that you give up more
yards the Texans do, you give up more points the
Texans do. But somehow you're great or even good. No, no, no,
(12:49):
you're supposed to be average at best. Now I know
that the Shawn lovers out there, and hey, listen, the
guy's amazing. During our podcast, Fast gave up play by
play you that play I figure no one saw it.
He was given a play by play. We won't play
that for you because we like you. But if you
look have we looked at his career yet? Did we
(13:11):
look at Deshaun score game sixteen and eleven, including this
year where they're nine and three in one score games.
So let me see, sixty and eleven is five. He's
up six this year. So he had a below five
record and one score games for his career. Okay, games
he started and now he goes nine and three and
close games. The Texans are eleven and six on the year.
(13:32):
If they had just gone fifty fifty like he'd done
throughout his career. Before this year, the Texans would be
eight and nine, and or they wouldn't have that ninth game,
or they wouldn't have that seventeenth game. Right, seven and
nine exactly some or eight and eight right best, So
this is an eight and eight team. And if you
want to act like Deshaun Trump sat and why hasn't
(13:53):
he trumped it prior? And we're gonna get to the
same argument with Seattle. Now when you have it team
there's only been seven of them this century. When you
have a team which is I've been outscored on the
year and outyarded on the year, and they make the
division round, right, never had to buy, So it was
always a one in the first round seven times in
(14:17):
a cent or this century, twenty years or so, oh
and seven straight up in the next game. One in
six against the spread makes sense. You're now you've got
that home team rested off of buying, they are ready.
And if you're a week week week relatively compared to
the other playoff teams, it's not a good spot. Oh,
by the way, in those seven games, seven and oh
(14:40):
to the over. So now we have Andy Reid and
that effect, we think pushes it over we have the
weather looks kind of bad, partly scaring some people away,
but Sunday is expected to be forty degrees minimal wind,
under ten clear, and we have the opponent coach not
considered an x as a nose genius. Oh, Brian, would
(15:03):
we agree? Kind of the kind of coach. I think
they might be a little underrated. To be honest, they
have won their division Houston four out of the last
five years. But the fact is he's not a scheme.
He's not an excess and nose guru. Andy Reid's gonna
exploit that one more thing. If you have a row
(15:24):
or a home team that won last week, so that's Houston.
Now they're on the road and they're favored by more
or in this case they're underdogs by more in a
touchdown a touchdown her more. That goes over a huge amount.
And the rationale they're is simple, which is home team
isn't super tired because they had one game. Yeah, but
(15:45):
it was a home game. So the theory is Houston
is not gonna be super tired tired, So what do
they try to do. They're not gonna like purposely slow
the game way way down right, So I think that helps,
but it's like sixty percent over, so everything's pointing to
the over. I don't like batting with Barney at the
bar is gonna bat, so I suggest batting this one early,
(16:06):
and I really like and we got it, uh fifty
ones out there. I think fifty one is the number
to take. I think when people start realizing the weather,
and you never know what's gonna change, but start realizing
the weather, I think we're looking pretty good fast. How
much do you like this? I liked it enough to
go ahead and get down on it with you are
j And I gotta tell you, normally I don't like
playing an over that high fifty one. But let's you
(16:27):
mentioned it. Regular season, what happens on the fourth quarter
a team gets up double digits, they run the ball.
Doesn't happen the playoffs. You step on the team's throat.
I expect reading company keep throwing. That is such a
key point. Both the team that's leading, if it's a
big margin, and the team that's behind in the playoffs
is motivated to keep going because even if you have
a small chance. All of the Patriots in the super
(16:50):
Bowl they kept going. Regular season, you don't know the
analogy would be in the n b A Playoffs, down
a thirty seconds slab, they might file one more time
right fez, and then they make it three and all
of a sudden they're found another five times, whereas regular
season dribble with any so I think, and with Deshaun Watson,
(17:11):
even if they get down twenty one, he's gonna think
he can bring him back. Absolutely came down from sixteen
last week. So what I would say is this, if
you were only gonna bet one of the halves, I
would bet the second half over before the first, because
I think a lot of this has to do with
I do expect Kansas City to get the lead, and
if they do, I think both teams keep scoring in
the second half. And if you're looking for a correlated parlay,
(17:34):
and I think there is a correlation here, it would
be obviously Kansas City and over. So the official pick
of the decade division round total in the two thousand twenties,
Over over Kansas City. Brad, you want to You've got
a little strange angle here. Yeah, I want to be
bad r J. I've never done this any point this season,
(17:57):
but I want to play a seven point easer and
in this matchup, I want to take Kansas City and
tease Kansas City seven points down from nine and a
half to two and a half. Okay, so you're getting
through the key numbers of seven and three, you're paying
you know what's the typical of minus one? This is bad.
They're being bad, very bad. But let's be honest, a
(18:19):
lot of our audience wants to be bad. They do.
So the second piece of this is the next game
we're going over. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart
Radio app. Alright, Fez, Brad's gonna have his pick coming
up here in a few minutes. Number One factor in
(18:39):
the game Baltimore is improved defense over the course of
the year. R J and I was trying to figure
out why was the Baltimore defense bad back in September,
and it's been so good. So when you say bad,
where where would you ranked them? After four games? Oh,
they were like twenty second. They were giving up over
six yards per play, And as it turned out, Baltimore
had a whole lot of new starters. They had seven
(19:00):
starters to the defense. So the integration of those guys
took some time. And then once those guys got integrated,
along with them getting their cornerbacks Peters from the Rams
and getting Smith back from injury, that combination, this defense
has been dynamites the last nine games, fourteen points per game.
They're giving up only fourteen a game. And what was
(19:20):
it the first I guess that'd be what seven? Oh,
I don't have that number, but I know they were
below average. Yeah, it was much higher, no doubt about it. Now, Smith,
Jimmy Smith, any relation to the Smith brothers from Green Bay,
because I know you've got deep relations there. Knows Darius
and Preston are not related Darius and I'm Preston Preston.
That's it, all right. I agree with you. So, Brad,
(19:43):
what is your number one factor in the game. Number
one factor for me is I'm concerned about the effectiveness
of Derrick Henry, the Tennessee running back who's the last
couple of weeks, has carried the ball thirty plus times
in each of those two games. And if I'm tend
see the best way to keep the ball out of
the hands of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is
(20:05):
to continue to run Derrick Henry, which we've been successful
the last two weeks, so I think he'll get his carries.
I'm just not so sure he's gonna be that all
that effective r J. You know, we're down to the
wire here doing a little deep research on this. What
we know is this, Henry's never had thirty plus carries
in successive games in his NFL career, only one other
time at thirty plus carries privately the last two weeks.
(20:26):
So what we're saying is even a single time, so
his whole career in the NFL, one time he had
thirty plus carries. Last two weeks, by the way, two
road games, now a third road game got the idea
of having thirty plus and thirty plus that's unprecedented for Henry.
What we're gonna tell you here in a little bit
(20:47):
when it comes off the printer is we dove in
and said, how rare is this in general? Forget Henry,
how many times are guys carrying thirty plus thirty plus?
It's not often. And we saw from the preliminary preliminary
results that the other backs that carry the ball a
bunch for two games suffered in the third game. I
(21:09):
also think this Vrabel, he's getting a lot of off
all right, He's got energy, he's young, he seems to
be at least somewhat engaged with the media. He's not
like surly. Why aren't we hearing more? And I asked
calling cow heard this today on our podcast and you
can get that on my Twitter tomorrow morning at r
(21:31):
J in Vegas. I asked him, I said, how is
it that anyone handicapping this game and Tennessee the team,
how is it that the thirty plus carries in two
straight games has got to be at the front of
any any handicap. If you're ignoring that, you're ignoring the
maybe the biggest story. But it was by choice. Think
(21:54):
about it. What lead to Henry in week seventeen, which
is the first of the last two games, What led
to him having so many carries? And they wanted to
get him the rushing title for a single season. They
were at Houston, right, they were in clear command of
the game four and they kept feeding the rock like
it's I don't even know what to explain it, like
(22:15):
some weird tech mode glitch back and it's just like
boom boom and I get it, all things equal, player
friendly is great, but at a time when we know
running backs and their carry load not only affects their
long term career but affects their shorter term career or
the performance in the near term, to trade effectively, to
(22:39):
trade a rushing title or even a chance at the
rushing title didn't know they were gonna get the title,
to trade that chance for a lesser chance to win
in the playoffs. It's unequivocal that if Henry had carried
the ball half as much in Week seventeen, we would
(22:59):
be so much more optimistic about Tennessee, right, Does anyone
disagree with that? And what did vrabel get for it?
A rushing title? No one's gonna remember who won the
rushing title three years ago, no idea. Even Jonas probably
doesn't know. I don't know. I'll take a guess, but
I'll tell you this if you we know who won
(23:20):
the Super Bowl and and it just strikes me that
the balance between winning and the whole Instagram followers profile
I want to have my own shoes kind of stuff.
I get it. I'm not saying one is bad, but
it's bad if it's at the expense of winning. Has
anyone heard anyone discussed this? No, and Vrabel needs an
(23:41):
answer for it to me, maybe if he will say, yeah,
you know, I want my players happy, and then at
least we know. I just wonder you can't have played
the in the NFL and not know that thirty plus
is doesn't bode well for the next game. And the
fact that that dirty plus again and it bears repeating
in his whole career, he's gone thirty plus one time,
(24:04):
and now he's done it in successive weeks carries all right, Brad,
you got your It feels good to be bad, and
it does sometimes, especially if it's after midnight, right, mixture
of drinks, if you know, if you're a drinker. And
the first one Kansas City minus two and a half
seven point late one forty picking up. I'm guessing here
(24:26):
it's some chalk. Oh, it is some chalk, same thing here,
let's go ahead. And the seven point teaser being on
the Baltimore Ravens tease them down from nine and a
half down to two and a half. And this sounds
even better after I heard Steve Pezick, the master of
the NFL Power ratings, say that the Kansas City Chiefs
the first part of my seven point teaser and this one.
The Baltimore Ravens are his two highest power rated teams
(24:49):
in the last four years. They just gotta basically win
the game r but he both went by three. We
win this bat. I think this is correlated with the
over to me. I think the question here is how
does Tennessee win this game. It's not with Tannehill. It's
a big dose to Henry, which we think is compromised
(25:10):
and if tennant and if you look at foot while
outsiderers Baltimore, the average lead they had when the opponent
got the ball across the season, so the kickoff, the
lead is gonna be zero. Right to start the game
was nine points. The number two was like seven Baltimore.
Part of that defense is they've been playing from the lead.
(25:31):
Henry is not gonna be too effective if Baltimore has
a big lead, and that's what's gonna happen. Tannehill throwing
a bunch, he'll do fine, He'll scramble some, he'll have
a strip sack probably. I think if Baltimore wins, let
me ask you, if Baltimore covers the nine and a half,
let's say fezt. Wouldn't you if you knew that, wouldn't
you auto bet the over? Yeah, it's probably the over
given Baltimore covers. All right. So there's a couple of
(25:53):
ways to get at this. You can be a little
bit let's just say almost illegal laying one forty it's illegal,
it's almost. It should be outlawed if it's not. And
you can have oh my god, this is a cat
nip for the people would like to be bad. Wait,
I get Kansas City in Baltimore and they just gotta
pretty much win because no one ever wins by one
(26:14):
or two points. And you are endorsing that brand. I
am endorsing it, and it doesn't seem like with any regret, No,
no regrets. All right, we got it off the presses. Now,
these are the players this season that had the most
your or most carries and two successive games, all right,
(26:35):
for not Chris Carson, Chris Carson again, McCaffrey, Elliott one
game or a group of two, Murray Cook and Carlo's
hide if you look at their season stats and compare
them to how they do in the third game. So
that's what Henry has right now, right two games with
a bunch of carries, and now what's he going to
(26:58):
do in the third? On average per carry, these backs,
these high usage backs, suffered by a half yard per
game or half yard per carry, half yard per carry,
so fast, four four point oh yards that's average four
point five means you're one of the best running teams
in football. That half yards gigantic. Every time he touches
(27:20):
the ball. If he gets about thirty times, it's gonna
be fifteen extra yards or fifteen yards he didn't get.
So we expect Derrick Henry to go from an elite,
best in the league running back to an average back. Yes,
r J, be sure to catch live editions of Straight
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific.
I'll tell you this just physic's best bats coming, just
(27:41):
so you know what kind of man he is. And
you might be appalled by this, but you might think
that's who I want to bet with. There's a fellow
we got. I got a new Mike, Brad has a
new mic. You know, we're having some fun with it,
but we haven't built the set around. You know, we
just need a set builder to come in. We had
a fellow named Esteban. He built set Forwars six years ago,
(28:01):
build a step Forwards eighteen months ago, and Penzik probably
met him three times. I say Esteban is coming next week.
He goes who and it like it took me like
three minutes explain who it was, and finally waved his
hand and goes, oh, that's the help. You gotta win
(28:27):
bets to have silver spoons. Let's be candid life behind
the gated community. I hadn't no idea guys before we
get to this best bet from Steve Fezick behind his
gated community. You want to let you know. We are
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(28:48):
It is the last of our four game preview in
the NFL's Divisional Playoffs. It's the finale on Sunday Night,
where the Packers right now are four and a half
point favorites hosting the Seahawks. I like Green Bay, my
us the four and half, and I bet green Bay
Seattle is overrated. R J. You picked up on this
before I think anybody else. We'll see, right, because if
they make the championship game, I think a lot of
(29:09):
people are gonna be chirping on Twitter. Well they've Yeah,
they certainly. Seettle has already been leaking oil here. At
the end of the year, they're eleven and two in
close games decide by one score. So Seattle overall is
twelve and five. But the only reason they're twelve and
five is because they've won all of these close games.
And let's face it, even the playoff win at Philly.
They're fortunate that when you didn't hear Wentz one in
(29:29):
that matter, that's what everyone said they would have won
with that Wentz wins, even as it turns out McCown
came and he was playing with a torn hamstring in
the second half as well. When you're over forty, it's
hard to town. Yeah, it's a good point. Now, what
I will say is this, Brad, you had an amazing stat.
Seattle has tied. Now only one of the team the
two thousand and fifteen Broncos have had this many one
score wins in a seam That is correct. Only the
(29:51):
Broncos of that year have had this many one score wins.
So this is effectively the luckiest team tied in the
history of the NFL. You might say luck it's Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson before this season was three games below one
score games. So I trust the longer stats. He's like
everyone else, and there's a huge matchup edge in this game.
(30:11):
How do you beat green Bay? Your run all over them,
you're run through them. Well, there's no running backs left
for Seattle to do that, and the yards per carry
last game it was like one point one or something
with their key back right for both Lynch and for Homer,
They've got no one who can accomplish that and take
advantage of the green Bay weakness. So your best bat
is on green Bay minus the four and a half.
And remember something, guys, the home field advantage for green
(30:35):
Bay is maybe the best in the NFL. Seattle on
them now, Seattle with seven and one on the road
this year, but over the course of the last three years,
last five years, they're not a great road team, Seattle.
I trust the longer term stats again, right, this is
really about do you trust the seven and one or
you trust that they're an average road team, or at
least considering how good the team has been there not
(30:57):
a superior road team. Do you trust that Russell will
soon over his career is just a few games over
close games even now? Or do you trust this season
with the historic amount of close wins. I always want
to trust if it's apples to apples the bigger stats.
And by the way, guys, my total, we'll give it here.
But podcast has the analysis if you didn't hear it
over in Kansas City my favorite. But I'm in a
(31:20):
five thousand all the Charity Challenge on radio in New
York and I'm up a half a game, so the
stakes are high right now, heads up, and I have
green Bay, so on the side. I agree with Fez.
Remember that home field advantage is even more so because
of the surface of the field and green Bay surface.
If it does snow drizzle anything, it takes even more
(31:41):
being familiar with that surface, green Bay's edge goes up
if the weather is bad at home. I agree with
FA's best back green Bay
You're listening to Fox Sports really got Home. This is
straight out of Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your
host r J Bow. Far collect nat the pregame show
(00:28):
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(01:08):
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You heard it. I'm RJ Live from Las Vegas, two
(01:29):
hundred FSR stations across this great nation. And it's a
big day, Big Big Friday. Yeah, pick Palooza. But it's
the last time this entire football season. There's four games
in the weekend at next week too, and then one
that means only three left after Sunday. Let's take advantage. Also, though,
(01:53):
just best bets are going to be strewn throughout the hour.
We're joining studio the pros who know full house rat
powers Steve Physick. Sports betters listen for the money. Sports
fans listen to no more than their bodies. But you
can't have pros with how Joe's He's in l A,
He's Jones. It's not always good to be here, r J.
(02:13):
And Yes, on a day in which we've got four
games in the NFL, we've got a quarterback making his
playoff debut in the National Football League and pressure on
some higher seeds. What is the Vegas lead? I can't lie.
There was a little bit of contention on this one. Physik.
We know where he wanted. Oh just connected it to
(02:36):
say I don't want to hear about my love of
Jimmy g But no, no, no, that's coming soon. We've
got We announced it yesterday, the r J Bell Over
Under Division Round Total over under of the decade of
the two thousand and twenties, best one so far. And
let's get to it, guys. We go to Kansas City,
the Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. This is
(02:59):
coming up on Sunday right now on pregame dot com.
The Chiefs the home team, a nine and a half
point favorite. The total in this game on pregame dot
com is right now now. This total could be over
or it could be under. Let's break this game. I
promise it's one of the two let's break it down.
Fez number one factor. If you just had not on
(03:21):
the total the whole game, if you just had one factor,
that's all you could share with the nation, what would
it be? Kansas City underrated. A big part of that
the fact that Mahomes missed three games, and frankly, quite
a few games Mahomes played, he was not so that
Kansas City offense it looks really good in the stats
are j but bottom line, it's even better than what
(03:44):
the underlying season long stats say because of those three
games with Matt Moore and those three games with the
compromise Mahomes. Yeah, I think that's one part of it.
And you were at the forefront when it came to
talking about Kansas City like four or five weeks ago.
Physic first one underrated, and the rationale at the time
(04:05):
was listen when Mahomes was healthy, first four games there
were four now and after that he was banged up,
then he was out, then he was banged up coming back.
He got not listened. There's some subjectivity. It's like it's
not when he wins the first game is when he
gets or you know that wins that next when he's healthy.
But you could see it. I mean it was pretty visible.
(04:26):
I thought we could debate one game or the other,
but I thought it was pretty visible that he was hobbled.
So what you look for in the playoffs is a
time when the players, the team itself is better now
then it was across the season. So imagine a situation
of Tom Brady and his prime missed ten games. Right,
(04:48):
you could blend all those stats in, but would that
be the story or would it be how they play
when Brady was in there and how they play when
Mahomes was in there. Because he finished number two in
QBR this year, behind only Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees third.
By the way, for all those Drew Brees haters, and
by the way, Drew Brees had a better QBR the
(05:11):
last four or five games, and he did on the season.
It was still third best. But his arms tired. He's
too old. That's what I'm hearing on the different talk shows.
It doesn't make a lot of sense, But okay, all right.
I think there's another reason Kansas City is underrated, and
that's because of the defense. Brad. We talked about this
in college a bunch. If you have a new coordinator
(05:33):
or a new coach has multiple coordinators even more so
that are different. If all you did was faded team
the first third of the season with the new coordinator,
pass them the middle third, and then play on them
the last third. So pessimistic, neutral, optimistic. I think you're
at right there. You totally agree because it's opposite of
(05:57):
what the public does because at the start of the season,
the like, there's all this optimism, Hey, we got a
new coordinator. The last coordinator stuck. That's why we got
rid of them with this new guy. And that's why
they're getting rid of the guys the time. Right, they're
usually not retiring, like with the nero doing the horses
at the end of Casino, right, I mean, they're usually
getting run out of town. You bring the new guy in,
everyone's excited. Oh look they lost the game. Oh look
(06:19):
they didn't cover that game. Oh man, this guy is
no good, all right, Spagnolia is no good. But then
by the time they start getting kind of a parody
where they're they're kind of familiar with their own offense,
their own defense. That's when everyone's kind of off them.
And then there's that point where the turn happens where
they are now playing better than they had last season,
(06:41):
but the public is still pessimistic because this season hasn't
been great. As we got some numbers on this or
Brad whoever wants to jump in with them, as you
got the last six games that Kansas City defense has
given up eleven and a half points per game. How
good is that? R J Well, number one in the
NFL year to date was the paid three. It's they
give up fourteen per game. So that Kansas City d
(07:03):
the last six weeks has been better than any NFL
team in terms of preventing their opponents from scoring. And
I think the by was seven weeks back, and if
you roll that seventh game in, it's still very impressive. Now. Listen,
points per game can be deceiving, though ultimately in the
long run it matters the probably the most, but in
the short run it can be deceiving. Quality of competition,
(07:24):
red zone efficiency of the opponent, which has a lot
of luck. Yeah, no doubt. But we looked at Football
Outsiders d v o A for the defense. Each of
the eight games or six games took the mean the average,
and they would have been eight in football in the NFL,
eighth best defense now, if Kansas City has the eighth
(07:47):
best defense, lookout, you think, because where where's the offense?
At number one? You got them about Baltimore. I do,
it's close, but k C one, So Baltimore could be
won two on offense, I think you could debate it
either way. And on defense, Baltimore is wear for you.
It's a top five d also in Kansas City, right
(08:09):
in that same range but a little higher, you know. Eight.
We're saying, yes, I mean, these could be two the
best teams we've seen in the decade. I mean, to me,
this is probably the best second best team I can
remember in a while. I mean anything jump out at you,
just that Kansas City. No, they the best, second best team.
They would be the best team overall and over the
(08:31):
last four years if it was not for Baltimore. Oh
so you have the number on that you're saying right now,
Kansas City's power raiding physics the Vegas perspective. You can
get that when it's released at Physics Sports on Twitter.
That's f e z z I K at Physics Sports.
And you're saying that the rating on Casey right now
(08:52):
is higher than any other team has had in the
last four years. Yes. Wow, So we literally have the
two best teams based on feasis power ratings that we've
had in the last four years. Jonas, how many people
who think Kansas City is that good? I think they've
been under the radar for a little while. Um. I
(09:14):
I've thought they were the most dangerous team based on
how the defense has played a lot of the stuff
that you guys have pointed out, and because there's been
such a hype on Baltimore and maybe a little Mahomes fatigue,
if there is such a thing. I just feel like
they've kind of flown under the radar. I think it's that,
and I think the reality is, if you look at
the season, they didn't look like the second best team
a lot of the season. It's just our ability to
(09:36):
say this is what's different right here. They've got their players,
they've got their mature defense understanding the scheme earlier, they
didn't have either first four games, they had the offense,
and they were still four oh even without Tyreek Hill.
Remember he got hurt week when he was out four games. Now,
how many points have you got him worth? Now? He's
(09:57):
worth the points full point. Yeah. So to me, now
that said, I think the Ravens are the better team.
I really do. I think. I mean, you look at
the Ravens. You look at the point differential, look at
the A T s margin nine and one against spread
last ten since they got their defense solidified, and we'll
be talking about that. I think this is the best
(10:20):
team I've seen, maybe since the two thousand seven undefeated Patriots.
And I don't think a short week for their opponent
is the time. It's not gonna be the time to
figure out this complex or this, let's say a very
unusual Baltimore offense. All right, it's time. I'm RJ BO
straight out of Vegas. Now you could I don't know
(10:41):
what Division round games you've bet this decade, but this
is the best well total, this is the best total
you're gonna get. Now. I'm having fun with it because
we don't over sell. But I will say this, this
is probably one of my five best bets of the
year in the NFL. And I like over fifty one
(11:03):
over fifty one Kansas City a couple of reasons. One,
let's get to the obvious. Andy Reid brad Off of
by outstanding and oftentimes you see it on the offensive side. Yeah,
over the over his entire career, Andy Reid, going back
to the Philadelphia days off of by sixty eight percent
(11:23):
against the spread r J pretty good. And and offensively
is where they pick up a lot of that. Absolutely,
and you read more of an offensive minded coaching and
exceeding expectations by five and a half points per game.
And you think about it, you've got a Texans team.
I wouldn't make the case perhaps one of the five
(11:43):
or so worst playoff teams of the decade. I know
that sounds like a lot of people are gonna say
what they've been outgained. Houston outgained on the season. The
opponents have more yards than the Texans. Now, usually if
you get outgained, that's on a good thing. So like,
let's act I get another twenty that's gonna help us
(12:04):
now and then in in a given game, yards can
be deceiving. You know, everyone would say, were the Couboys
remember that a Green Bay game? Okay? But over sixteen
games usually the best teams. Well, by the way, Baltimore
is number one in yard is differential. San Francisco's number three.
By the way, the Dallas Cowboys are too or anythink
(12:26):
about that a second. But additionally, the Texans during the
regular season, and even if you had the playoff game,
have been outscored. Listen, Maybe we're trying to make things
too complex, but the idea that you give up more
yards the Texans do, you give up more points the
Texans do. But somehow you're great or even good. No, no, no,
(12:49):
you're supposed to be average at best. Now I know
that the Shawn lovers out there, and hey, listen, the
guy's amazing. During our podcast, Fast gave up play by
play you that play I figure no one saw it.
He was given a play by play. We won't play
that for you because we like you. But if you
look have we looked at his career yet? Did we
(13:11):
look at Deshaun score game sixteen and eleven, including this
year where they're nine and three in one score games.
So let me see, sixty and eleven is five. He's
up six this year. So he had a below five
record and one score games for his career. Okay, games
he started and now he goes nine and three and
close games. The Texans are eleven and six on the year.
(13:32):
If they had just gone fifty fifty like he'd done
throughout his career. Before this year, the Texans would be
eight and nine, and or they wouldn't have that ninth game,
or they wouldn't have that seventeenth game. Right, seven and
nine exactly some or eight and eight right best, So
this is an eight and eight team. And if you
want to act like Deshaun Trump sat and why hasn't
(13:53):
he trumped it prior? And we're gonna get to the
same argument with Seattle. Now when you have it team
there's only been seven of them this century. When you
have a team which is I've been outscored on the
year and outyarded on the year, and they make the
division round, right, never had to buy, So it was
always a one in the first round seven times in
(14:17):
a cent or this century, twenty years or so, oh
and seven straight up in the next game. One in
six against the spread makes sense. You're now you've got
that home team rested off of buying, they are ready.
And if you're a week week week relatively compared to
the other playoff teams, it's not a good spot. Oh,
by the way, in those seven games, seven and oh
(14:40):
to the over. So now we have Andy Reid and
that effect, we think pushes it over we have the
weather looks kind of bad, partly scaring some people away,
but Sunday is expected to be forty degrees minimal wind,
under ten clear, and we have the opponent coach not
considered an x as a nose genius. Oh, Brian, would
(15:03):
we agree? Kind of the kind of coach. I think
they might be a little underrated. To be honest, they
have won their division Houston four out of the last
five years. But the fact is he's not a scheme.
He's not an excess and nose guru. Andy Reid's gonna
exploit that one more thing. If you have a row
(15:24):
or a home team that won last week, so that's Houston.
Now they're on the road and they're favored by more
or in this case they're underdogs by more in a
touchdown a touchdown her more. That goes over a huge amount.
And the rationale they're is simple, which is home team
isn't super tired because they had one game. Yeah, but
(15:45):
it was a home game. So the theory is Houston
is not gonna be super tired tired, So what do
they try to do. They're not gonna like purposely slow
the game way way down right, So I think that helps,
but it's like sixty percent over, so everything's pointing to
the over. I don't like batting with Barney at the
bar is gonna bat, so I suggest batting this one early,
(16:06):
and I really like and we got it, uh fifty
ones out there. I think fifty one is the number
to take. I think when people start realizing the weather,
and you never know what's gonna change, but start realizing
the weather, I think we're looking pretty good fast. How
much do you like this? I liked it enough to
go ahead and get down on it with you are
j And I gotta tell you, normally I don't like
playing an over that high fifty one. But let's you
(16:27):
mentioned it. Regular season, what happens on the fourth quarter
a team gets up double digits, they run the ball.
Doesn't happen the playoffs. You step on the team's throat.
I expect reading company keep throwing. That is such a
key point. Both the team that's leading, if it's a
big margin, and the team that's behind in the playoffs
is motivated to keep going because even if you have
a small chance. All of the Patriots in the super
(16:50):
Bowl they kept going. Regular season, you don't know the
analogy would be in the n b A Playoffs, down
a thirty seconds slab, they might file one more time
right fez, and then they make it three and all
of a sudden they're found another five times, whereas regular
season dribble with any so I think, and with Deshaun Watson,
(17:11):
even if they get down twenty one, he's gonna think
he can bring him back. Absolutely came down from sixteen
last week. So what I would say is this, if
you were only gonna bet one of the halves, I
would bet the second half over before the first, because
I think a lot of this has to do with
I do expect Kansas City to get the lead, and
if they do, I think both teams keep scoring in
the second half. And if you're looking for a correlated parlay,
(17:34):
and I think there is a correlation here, it would
be obviously Kansas City and over. So the official pick
of the decade division round total in the two thousand twenties,
Over over Kansas City. Brad, you want to You've got
a little strange angle here. Yeah, I want to be
bad r J. I've never done this any point this season,
(17:57):
but I want to play a seven point easer and
in this matchup, I want to take Kansas City and
tease Kansas City seven points down from nine and a
half to two and a half. Okay, so you're getting
through the key numbers of seven and three, you're paying
you know what's the typical of minus one? This is bad.
They're being bad, very bad. But let's be honest, a
(18:19):
lot of our audience wants to be bad. They do.
So the second piece of this is the next game
we're going over. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart
Radio app. Alright, Fez, Brad's gonna have his pick coming
up here in a few minutes. Number One factor in
(18:39):
the game Baltimore is improved defense over the course of
the year. R J and I was trying to figure
out why was the Baltimore defense bad back in September,
and it's been so good. So when you say bad,
where where would you ranked them? After four games? Oh,
they were like twenty second. They were giving up over
six yards per play, And as it turned out, Baltimore
had a whole lot of new starters. They had seven
(19:00):
starters to the defense. So the integration of those guys
took some time. And then once those guys got integrated,
along with them getting their cornerbacks Peters from the Rams
and getting Smith back from injury, that combination, this defense
has been dynamites the last nine games, fourteen points per game.
They're giving up only fourteen a game. And what was
(19:20):
it the first I guess that'd be what seven? Oh,
I don't have that number, but I know they were
below average. Yeah, it was much higher, no doubt about it. Now, Smith,
Jimmy Smith, any relation to the Smith brothers from Green Bay,
because I know you've got deep relations there. Knows Darius
and Preston are not related Darius and I'm Preston Preston.
That's it, all right. I agree with you. So, Brad,
(19:43):
what is your number one factor in the game. Number
one factor for me is I'm concerned about the effectiveness
of Derrick Henry, the Tennessee running back who's the last
couple of weeks, has carried the ball thirty plus times
in each of those two games. And if I'm tend
see the best way to keep the ball out of
the hands of Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore offense is
(20:05):
to continue to run Derrick Henry, which we've been successful
the last two weeks, so I think he'll get his carries.
I'm just not so sure he's gonna be that all
that effective r J. You know, we're down to the
wire here doing a little deep research on this. What
we know is this, Henry's never had thirty plus carries
in successive games in his NFL career, only one other
time at thirty plus carries privately the last two weeks.
(20:26):
So what we're saying is even a single time, so
his whole career in the NFL, one time he had
thirty plus carries. Last two weeks, by the way, two
road games, now a third road game got the idea
of having thirty plus and thirty plus that's unprecedented for Henry.
What we're gonna tell you here in a little bit
(20:47):
when it comes off the printer is we dove in
and said, how rare is this in general? Forget Henry,
how many times are guys carrying thirty plus thirty plus?
It's not often. And we saw from the preliminary preliminary
results that the other backs that carry the ball a
bunch for two games suffered in the third game. I
(21:09):
also think this Vrabel, he's getting a lot of off
all right, He's got energy, he's young, he seems to
be at least somewhat engaged with the media. He's not
like surly. Why aren't we hearing more? And I asked
calling cow heard this today on our podcast and you
can get that on my Twitter tomorrow morning at r
(21:31):
J in Vegas. I asked him, I said, how is
it that anyone handicapping this game and Tennessee the team,
how is it that the thirty plus carries in two
straight games has got to be at the front of
any any handicap. If you're ignoring that, you're ignoring the
maybe the biggest story. But it was by choice. Think
(21:54):
about it. What lead to Henry in week seventeen, which
is the first of the last two games, What led
to him having so many carries? And they wanted to
get him the rushing title for a single season. They
were at Houston, right, they were in clear command of
the game four and they kept feeding the rock like
it's I don't even know what to explain it, like
(22:15):
some weird tech mode glitch back and it's just like
boom boom and I get it, all things equal, player
friendly is great, but at a time when we know
running backs and their carry load not only affects their
long term career but affects their shorter term career or
the performance in the near term, to trade effectively, to
(22:39):
trade a rushing title or even a chance at the
rushing title didn't know they were gonna get the title,
to trade that chance for a lesser chance to win
in the playoffs. It's unequivocal that if Henry had carried
the ball half as much in Week seventeen, we would
(22:59):
be so much more optimistic about Tennessee, right, Does anyone
disagree with that? And what did vrabel get for it?
A rushing title? No one's gonna remember who won the
rushing title three years ago, no idea. Even Jonas probably
doesn't know. I don't know. I'll take a guess, but
I'll tell you this if you we know who won
(23:20):
the Super Bowl and and it just strikes me that
the balance between winning and the whole Instagram followers profile
I want to have my own shoes kind of stuff.
I get it. I'm not saying one is bad, but
it's bad if it's at the expense of winning. Has
anyone heard anyone discussed this? No, and Vrabel needs an
(23:41):
answer for it to me, maybe if he will say, yeah,
you know, I want my players happy, and then at
least we know. I just wonder you can't have played
the in the NFL and not know that thirty plus
is doesn't bode well for the next game. And the
fact that that dirty plus again and it bears repeating
in his whole career, he's gone thirty plus one time,
(24:04):
and now he's done it in successive weeks carries all right, Brad,
you got your It feels good to be bad, and
it does sometimes, especially if it's after midnight, right, mixture
of drinks, if you know, if you're a drinker. And
the first one Kansas City minus two and a half
seven point late one forty picking up. I'm guessing here
(24:26):
it's some chalk. Oh, it is some chalk, same thing here,
let's go ahead. And the seven point teaser being on
the Baltimore Ravens tease them down from nine and a
half down to two and a half. And this sounds
even better after I heard Steve Pezick, the master of
the NFL Power ratings, say that the Kansas City Chiefs
the first part of my seven point teaser and this one.
The Baltimore Ravens are his two highest power rated teams
(24:49):
in the last four years. They just gotta basically win
the game r but he both went by three. We
win this bat. I think this is correlated with the
over to me. I think the question here is how
does Tennessee win this game. It's not with Tannehill. It's
a big dose to Henry, which we think is compromised
(25:10):
and if tennant and if you look at foot while
outsiderers Baltimore, the average lead they had when the opponent
got the ball across the season, so the kickoff, the
lead is gonna be zero. Right to start the game
was nine points. The number two was like seven Baltimore.
Part of that defense is they've been playing from the lead.
(25:31):
Henry is not gonna be too effective if Baltimore has
a big lead, and that's what's gonna happen. Tannehill throwing
a bunch, he'll do fine, He'll scramble some, he'll have
a strip sack probably. I think if Baltimore wins, let
me ask you, if Baltimore covers the nine and a half,
let's say fezt. Wouldn't you if you knew that, wouldn't
you auto bet the over? Yeah, it's probably the over
given Baltimore covers. All right. So there's a couple of
(25:53):
ways to get at this. You can be a little
bit let's just say almost illegal laying one forty it's illegal,
it's almost. It should be outlawed if it's not. And
you can have oh my god, this is a cat
nip for the people would like to be bad. Wait,
I get Kansas City in Baltimore and they just gotta
pretty much win because no one ever wins by one
(26:14):
or two points. And you are endorsing that brand. I
am endorsing it, and it doesn't seem like with any regret, No,
no regrets. All right, we got it off the presses. Now,
these are the players this season that had the most
your or most carries and two successive games, all right,
(26:35):
for not Chris Carson, Chris Carson again, McCaffrey, Elliott one
game or a group of two, Murray Cook and Carlo's
hide if you look at their season stats and compare
them to how they do in the third game. So
that's what Henry has right now, right two games with
a bunch of carries, and now what's he going to
(26:58):
do in the third? On average per carry, these backs,
these high usage backs, suffered by a half yard per
game or half yard per carry, half yard per carry,
so fast, four four point oh yards that's average four
point five means you're one of the best running teams
in football. That half yards gigantic. Every time he touches
(27:20):
the ball. If he gets about thirty times, it's gonna
be fifteen extra yards or fifteen yards he didn't get.
So we expect Derrick Henry to go from an elite,
best in the league running back to an average back. Yes,
r J, be sure to catch live editions of Straight
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific.
I'll tell you this just physic's best bats coming, just
(27:41):
so you know what kind of man he is. And
you might be appalled by this, but you might think
that's who I want to bet with. There's a fellow
we got. I got a new Mike, Brad has a
new mic. You know, we're having some fun with it,
but we haven't built the set around. You know, we
just need a set builder to come in. We had
a fellow named Esteban. He built set Forwars six years ago,
(28:01):
build a step Forwards eighteen months ago, and Penzik probably
met him three times. I say Esteban is coming next week.
He goes who and it like it took me like
three minutes explain who it was, and finally waved his
hand and goes, oh, that's the help. You gotta win
(28:27):
bets to have silver spoons. Let's be candid life behind
the gated community. I hadn't no idea guys before we
get to this best bet from Steve Fezick behind his
gated community. You want to let you know. We are
brought to you by auto Zone. Autozon has more ways
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(28:48):
It is the last of our four game preview in
the NFL's Divisional Playoffs. It's the finale on Sunday Night,
where the Packers right now are four and a half
point favorites hosting the Seahawks. I like Green Bay, my
us the four and half, and I bet green Bay
Seattle is overrated. R J. You picked up on this
before I think anybody else. We'll see, right, because if
they make the championship game, I think a lot of
(29:09):
people are gonna be chirping on Twitter. Well they've Yeah,
they certainly. Seettle has already been leaking oil here. At
the end of the year, they're eleven and two in
close games decide by one score. So Seattle overall is
twelve and five. But the only reason they're twelve and
five is because they've won all of these close games.
And let's face it, even the playoff win at Philly.
They're fortunate that when you didn't hear Wentz one in
(29:29):
that matter, that's what everyone said they would have won
with that Wentz wins, even as it turns out McCown
came and he was playing with a torn hamstring in
the second half as well. When you're over forty, it's
hard to town. Yeah, it's a good point. Now, what
I will say is this, Brad, you had an amazing stat.
Seattle has tied. Now only one of the team the
two thousand and fifteen Broncos have had this many one
score wins in a seam That is correct. Only the
(29:51):
Broncos of that year have had this many one score wins.
So this is effectively the luckiest team tied in the
history of the NFL. You might say luck it's Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson before this season was three games below one
score games. So I trust the longer stats. He's like
everyone else, and there's a huge matchup edge in this game.
(30:11):
How do you beat green Bay? Your run all over them,
you're run through them. Well, there's no running backs left
for Seattle to do that, and the yards per carry
last game it was like one point one or something
with their key back right for both Lynch and for Homer,
They've got no one who can accomplish that and take
advantage of the green Bay weakness. So your best bat
is on green Bay minus the four and a half.
And remember something, guys, the home field advantage for green
(30:35):
Bay is maybe the best in the NFL. Seattle on
them now, Seattle with seven and one on the road
this year, but over the course of the last three years,
last five years, they're not a great road team, Seattle.
I trust the longer term stats again, right, this is
really about do you trust the seven and one or
you trust that they're an average road team, or at
least considering how good the team has been there not
(30:57):
a superior road team. Do you trust that Russell will
soon over his career is just a few games over
close games even now? Or do you trust this season
with the historic amount of close wins. I always want
to trust if it's apples to apples the bigger stats.
And by the way, guys, my total, we'll give it here.
But podcast has the analysis if you didn't hear it
over in Kansas City my favorite. But I'm in a
(31:20):
five thousand all the Charity Challenge on radio in New
York and I'm up a half a game, so the
stakes are high right now, heads up, and I have
green Bay, so on the side. I agree with Fez.
Remember that home field advantage is even more so because
of the surface of the field and green Bay surface.
If it does snow drizzle anything, it takes even more
(31:41):
being familiar with that surface, green Bay's edge goes up
if the weather is bad at home. I agree with
FA's best back green Bay
Hosts And Creators
Rich Davis
Steve Covino
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