January 14, 2020 • 22 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas with RJ Bell and Jonas Knox, the guys recap the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs including Lamar Jackson crumbling under the pressure of the Titans, RJ hitting on his Over/Under bet of the decade between the Chiefs and Texans, the Packers winning the battle of the most overrated and the 49ers benefiting big time from their bye week.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports, the lead to me has
to be Vegas style. How the m v P prohibitively
priced right now to be the m v P. Lamar
Jackson fell so short in a game that they should
have won eight times out of ten based upon the odds. Yeah,
(00:21):
it was a stunner. On Saturday night, Lamar Jackson and
the number one seated Ravens fall to the Tennessee Titans.
Another road win for Tennessee twelve in Baltimore. If as
number one takeaway, like, what do we learn from this game?
Turnovers are so critical? R J? Baltimore was minus three
in turnovers. Now we know if we look at our database,
(00:42):
if your minus three, you only win the game ten
percent of the time. But I'm gonna make the case
r J, that the turnovers were in minus three. I
want to make the case it was minus seven because
Baltimore went oh for four on fourth down conversions. Okay,
so hold on a second. What do we assume is
going to be the conversion rate on fourth down? Well,
Baltimore was seven. Was number one in the NFL at
(01:04):
seventy two percent for for fourth down conversion. So historically,
over the course of this year, they would have converted
three out of four. Okay, well, no, seventy two is
I mean, I know it's gonna make your point if
we skew it that way, but let's just try to
stay with the facts here, and we would agree if
anytime someone's number one, the team's number one, we're gonna
assume they've had some luck involved, right, yes, and they
(01:25):
were eight. Hold on, hold on, hold on, I know
you've got your speed. You want me to sit back
or do you want to talk? Go ahead? Thank you,
Thank you so much. Stevezi got mar J Bell, the
host and executive producer of the show. Steve Fezick is
a rotating seat to my right. You're here today, right tomorrow,
(01:46):
you're off, all right. So here's my question. If it's
sevent through the season and their number one in the league,
we would assume that if we if I were going
to bet you next year, in fact, you have a
chance to put your money where your mouth is, I'll
bet you that the fourth down conversions for the Ravens
are under seventy next year. Let's say we'll do it, dime. No,
(02:10):
thank you, Why not? You were just saying seventy five
three out of four. Well, Baltimore is probably not gonna
be as good, so why would we assume they'd be
good in the next game against better competition? All right,
Tennessee has a better defense in an average team, right, Yes, okay,
so let's call it two out of three. And I'm
probably being nice to you. You agree, I agree? But no,
(02:30):
hold on, you want to get to your point. Why
don't we see what your point is? Well, they failed
twice on fourth and one r J. And then I
get it. I know that that Nick writes said, oh
they were over or seven and o in that spot.
I we can regurgitate that stuff that we're blue. But
what does seven and no mean? I mean, yeah, you're
supposed to convert fourth and ones more than half the time.
(02:52):
I got it. So they probably should have not failed
in either of those. But where where were they on
the field? So the end of the first half they
were driving and then they started a third quarter and
they were driving in the red zone? Okay, So where
were they on the field? Approximately the twenty yard line
of the Titans. Both okay, So you can say, effectively,
(03:13):
if they would have kicked the field goal, we can
assume a field goal is almost certain and from that range,
especially with Tucker. So they gave up six points it
sounds like and the two spots I meaning if they
kicked the field goal both times, they would have given
the ball back to the Titans times would probably got
the ball after the after the kickoff and about the
same range that the conversion happened where they didn't convert
(03:35):
the fourth right, So really plus six Baltimore would have benefited. Yes,
So how much would they have lost by? They would
have lost by ten? Okay, so now what, Well, there's
the other three turnovers and the other two failed fourth
down conversied. Okay, what were those at? What point of
the game was it? The other two failures were in
the fourth quarter there, both fourth and five, and we're
(03:57):
at again driving but not in the red zone yet. Okay, So,
and those are fifty fifty kind of shots, right, So
they should have made one of those. And if they
had even made that one and then scored a touchdown,
they would have still lost. So if everything you say
would have pretty much fallen the Ravens way reasonably, not
(04:18):
in a perfect world, they still would have lost the game, right,
meaning if not that, if they would have converted every
fourth down and scored a touchdown on it. But if
we would have converted out and say, let's say they
didn't take such a big chance and kick the field
goals instead, let's say they make one out of two
of the fourth downs, which is all you can hope for,
they still lose. So that seems to be the story
(04:40):
to me, right if we were trying to explain how
did they lose by sixteen points? I think you're analysis
is quite good, but we're trying to figure out how
they got to the point it was even a close game.
Do you have any thoughts on that, because that, to
me is the story. Yeah, that defense had been playing
so well for ball Baltimore, Derrick Henry, we worried about
(05:01):
him being a little banged up after thirty plus curious
he ran, He ran all over Baltimore, no no doubt
about that. We we can get the box score out
and see that one. Jonas, what's your take. I think
that Baltimore got behind in the game, and they hadn't
had a lot of experience playing from behind in games,
and I think they just were a little shell shocked.
(05:22):
And Tennessee was relentless and Tannehill did just enough to
keep him off off guard to where he went deep
with the football, throw a touchdown pass, there, a trick
play with Derrick Henry at the goal line. It just
seemed like they couldn't gather what Tennessee was trying to
do all night long. I think the idea that Baltimore
(05:43):
has benefited from the lead is probably to me. The
takeaway is we did uh actually looked at football outsiders
last week and they have a stat what is the
average score when the other team, the opponent takes possession?
And all right, so beginning the game you kick it
off to him. What's the score margin? Zero? Right? You
(06:05):
up by thirty you kick it off. So what's the
average throughout the season. And Baltimore had the best average
where the opponent was down by nine points on average.
Patriots were second at seven points and then down from there.
If you're down by over a score on average against
(06:26):
the defense, that lends itself to playing particularly well when ahead.
Why would that Baltimore defense do that is because they
blitz a lot. They have a variety of blitzes, and
if you know the opponent's gonna throw man, those blitzes
can be effective. I think the whole offseason fed or
(06:48):
not the whole off season, but the whole second half
of this season, we've been thinking, Man, the Ravens d
it's one of the top five, and it's because of
Jimmy Smith. It's because of Peters. Oh, he's good, except
the genius, the boy genius supposedly Will Calm traded him
for what a fourth round pick? Fifth round pick? How
(07:11):
great is he? I don't know. Maybe it was a
mindset thing with the Rams. I don't know, but I
know Jimmy smithsman in the league for quite a while,
the number one pick. Never really heard a lot about him,
you know, as a Steelers fan, I knew about him.
I know about him. I never thought, you know what,
the Steelers need have had Jimmy Smith, that would all
(07:31):
be better. And it just seems strange to me that
that was the conversation for so long about how good
Jimmy Smith was. Is he better than his backup? Yeah?
But to me it feels like that this was more
of a story. In hindsight, now we have the benefit
that the Ravens had such a big lead in these
(07:55):
games on average, and they felt like when they had
that lead. They were so installed pupable that the opponents
were desperate, and that desperation, that frantic nous lad the inefficiency.
It led to a compounding of mistakes, pick six of
strip sacks and when it was a tight game, or
in this case, they were playing from behind and Kinnesse
(08:17):
benefited from being able to be defensively uh keyed into
Lamar having to throw and Colin made a great point
on that today Lamar is not the best quarterback one behind.
We know that, right, So it strikes me this is
more about that we didn't see clearly that the Ravens
(08:39):
only play this while, or at least as well as
they did throughout the year, from the lead or as
a really good team. And maybe that's Kansas City and
we'll talk about that, but a really good team can
play from the lead and from behind. Does that does
that resonate big time? And you predicted that last week
on our podcast r J you talked about, Wow, You're
(09:00):
like Baltimore that that defense. I'm not going to put
them in the top five FeAs I'm paraphrasing, of course,
because they they're they're great when they have the lead.
But we haven't seen them hit in the mouth. We
haven't seen them behind. How are they going to respond?
And obviously you were very imprescient because they did not
respond well at all, and it didn't look like they
wanted any part of two under fifty pound Derrick Henry
punching them in the mouth. Be sure to catch live
(09:26):
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app So r J was a wild one
in Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs, trailing by twenty
four to nothing at one point, end up winning the
game outright a twenty point winner. Fifty one thirty one
(09:49):
was the final, which was well over the over under
and it was your bet of the decade, You're over
under bet of the decade, and it was another winner
for r J. Bellingham one day. You know something, I
didn't really want to talk about this, but now that
you've brought it up, Jonas, I mean, what am I
gonna do? I mean, I didn't mean to make you blush,
(10:12):
just you know, given the facts, a lot of people
estimate that millions were one on it, and if you
think about it, it's probably true. Right, because we have
hundreds of thousands of listeners. Let's say one out of
ten took me up on it. Out the other nine
you'd say are foolish, but okay, so one let's call it. Uh,
(10:32):
let's just say twenty thousand. If they bet how much
each a right five dollars would be a hundred thousand.
So even if the average bet was fifty dollars, it
was a million bucks that I gave the world. I
took from the bookies. I reached in the bookies pocket,
(10:54):
yanked it out and spread it around like Robin Hood.
But I didn't want to talk about it. Thank you,
though you had the best interests at home. Yeah, of course.
Now a lot of people would say, r J. You
should especially be excited because you cover it went over
in the first half. It literally took half the game,
And I'm like, yeah, you're right, but I don't want
(11:16):
to talk about Then others would say, well, wait a minute,
the tea the one team went over, and I'd be true,
but again, please enough gut fast and something on this
and the highest scoring first half. Get this in NFL
postseason history matches your decade of the year over. But
(11:39):
again we're only as good as their last win. So
what I would say is thank you and actually all
joking aside. The feedback was wonderful on it, and as
I say, we've been red hot, I've been read hot
on these like super duper plays. It's not like this
usually you try. I mean, if you can win six
(11:59):
out of ten of your super dupers, you're lucky. That's
not really a technical term super duper. But I don't
know if it's because I feel I do think about that.
There might be a million dollars or some variation on this.
So I try to be super judicious about it, and
we'll try to keep it up. But don't let a
couple of wins make it seem like they're short things.
(12:21):
They're not. Because it kind of seemed like it, but
it's not fas. What's your takeaway on the game itself?
I thought, by the way we did tease it, let's
talk about it. What were the end game on? Yeah,
so when Kansas City trailed twenty four nothing, Kansas City
was a three to one underdog to win the game.
It's so funny. Listen, I love calling Cowherd. I mean,
(12:41):
we do have a segment on this show called Colin
Cowherd is crazy. So we're not afraid to be critical
the way Colin was acting like, well yeah we yeah,
twenty four nothing they were at home, Yeah, no, nothing
to concern ourselves with. Come on, all right, there's a
way that, no way that you could not be concerned
(13:04):
if you're in Kansas City, batter, especially if you're laying
on I wonder what I mean, that's interesting. What would
the a ten point tease if you think about it,
from just to pick them. I mean, do we say
like five to one, six to one? Did they cover?
I think eight to one? I mean it was eight
(13:25):
to one on the cover. Oh my gosh, So what
did we say? Misleading final? I can make the case
Kansas City should have won by more r J specifically,
how did they get so far behind? And I know
we hate to like go ahead and cherry pick these
weird plays, but go ahead, more team crazy special teams points,
blocked punt touchdown and then essentially a dropped punt touchdown
(13:49):
Casey gifted Houston fourteen points. And remember now is it's
now eight no is when the opponent has been out
gained on the season. And again talking about how ye
matters and outscored on the season, and Houston had been
both when they reached the division round this century. It
(14:09):
had been seven prior times. Now it's eight. That they
lose the game, they do not make the conference final.
No team, and again this year, no team that's been
outscored and outyarded on the season. Stats matter over the
long term, and I think we saw it took it
went about as well as it could have for Houston,
(14:31):
I think it's fair to say, and they still got
dominated in the game. Jonas, what was your main takeaway? Um,
I felt better about Kansas City trailing that I did
Baltimore trailing. It's the one of the more one of
the weirdest games I've ever seen. And I was exhausted afterwards,
and it felt like there were two or three different
(14:52):
games inside one game. But I wonder and I and
I asked fees this before the show. Had Houston scored
a touchdown, went up twenty one to nothing, had they
gone for it and actually scored a touchdown instead of
settling for the field goal, how much would the end
game odds have changed with them up twenty eight nothing
as opposed to just nothing. Be sure to catch live
(15:17):
editions of Straight Out of Vegas Weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific. That was the finale of the divisional weekend.
It was the green Bay Packers onto the NFC title game.
Green Bay a three win over the Seattle Seahawks. Best
back green Bay. I agreed with you. You were right
rock solid that said. It could have went either way.
(15:39):
Most games can. Main take away. Main takeaway is that
green Bay benefited from Seattle hurting it running back. So
we saw Lynch get two yards per carry. We barely
saw Homer get any carries. And bottom line is green
Bay's biggest weakness on defense. You can run on them
and Seattle could not take advantage of that. Okay, but
that was your handicap before the game. You're saying it
when it that way and still we barely covered. So
(16:03):
does that cause you do you downgrade green Bay off
this game? You know? I did not downgrade. Did you
upgrade them? Definitely was not going to upgrade. It's either
going to keep them the same or downgrade, meaning that
after the game, as you were contemplating, So this is
something Vegas does that no one else does. We would
say this team just one Everyone's talking and taking their bows.
(16:25):
They're like anyone that like green Bay. Now, I'm not
going to talk about the people like Seattle. I'm gonna
talk about Seattle was overrated, because let's be candid, and
I'm being sincere here. If Seattle had the running backs,
this could have been a different easily would have been
a different game. And I still would be sitting here
today saying Seattle is overrated. If they had one, even
(16:47):
if they were healthy with their running backs, I would
say it, just like I'm gonna say right now, green
Bay is overrated. What's the early line, san Fran green
Bay fat? It's seven to seven and a half. So
what we're saying here is the line Minnesota had played
road road, which is challenging. Cousins out of his one
(17:10):
o'clock comfort zone line was seven. This line is slightly higher.
That means that Minnesota, the market considers even before green
even after green Bay. After green Bay has the benefit
of winning this game, Minnesota last week was considered to
be better than green Bay is right now, even after
(17:31):
winning this game. To me, I still think they're overrated.
I think green Bay has is the second most overrated
team in all football this year. And I think Seattle
was number one. Someone had to win this game, and
what I expect is going to be I expect domination
with San fran though, the question becomes, is that defense
(17:55):
what we thought it was? It looked like it was
on the scoreboard right out. Fox Sports Radio has the
best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of
our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within
the I Heart Radio app search f s R to
listen live. It was the forty Niners all over the
(18:17):
Minnesota Vikings on Saturday in the Bay Area. Twenty seven
to ten was the final to me. Entering the game,
the question was this, how good was the forty Niners
defense with many of their injured players Alexander likely back,
others not so sure. They all played right? Yea? Also,
(18:38):
and how good was that d because it's easy to say,
just like we were skeptical of the Ravens being oh,
just because the Ravens got back Jimmy Smith, they were
so good. No, no, no, I was skeptical of that.
I still am. More so now I was skeptical that
that's all it was. With the forty nine nurs we
(19:00):
got one game of data that says maybe it was
a lot of the injuries. Yeah. I want to talk
though about the bye week. San Francisco had a time. No,
no, no no, no. What I want to talk about is
how do you believe the bye week is what was
the big driver on the defense. Yes, so you're saying
more so than the injuries. Yes, because Kans If Alexander
(19:21):
was out and Brown was out or four I'm sorry
I was out, but they were rested, you would have thought,
all this team is just as good, not as good,
all right, but but but the rest was more than
the players coming. And the reason I say that is
Alexander on the statue did nothing in this game, didn't
have any tackles, so it was shocking how little he
(19:43):
showed up in the box. How many but how many
snaps did he play? A big chunk of it he
did play, and the team did say, gave him a
tremendous emotional boost. Oh my gosh, that sounds like like
Lucas on the All right, so do you try Are
you able to just look at tackles and interceptions or
whatever and say that's really telling about how important the
(20:04):
defensive players? I can, I cannot, But a middle linebacker
should fill up the statuet. Okay, so you're saying it's
easy now to say there's another example where it's the
default on the talking head shows are gonna say, uh oh,
look Brown's back. In fact, I think I heard that
a few times today. You're saying, nah, could help next week,
could help in the future. But this was more about
(20:26):
the forty Niners finally got to buy exactly right because
the forty Niners did. They had a bye week four.
Every other playoff team had their byas week eight or later.
In that defense, really the eye tests that they're looking tired,
they're looking worned down, and having that full week off
here in the bye week I think was critical. That
defense was flying everywhere on in this game. On Saturday,
(20:48):
Brad Powers, let me ask you, do you remember fast
talking about now last week on Friday? It was kind
of like one of those Eureka moments. He was reading
and reading and reading. He uncovered something came in Friday
was one of the highlights of the show. Talked about
the forty nine had been h twelve thirteen weeks since
they had to bye. He thought that bye was going
(21:10):
to do them good. He was right at scene, but
before that Friday. Had you heard him talk about the
forty niners of fatigue at all? It's interesting about the
injury eye test. It wasn't quite the eye test. Who
was it? It was not old Fast. You gotta love him, though,
(21:30):
I mean, he keeps trying. I'm in third grade, Andy,
and I know not to lie, but you should just
tell the truth. Ft just say you know something. I
didn't even realize it was a fatigue, but then I
did because no one else has. So they're not gonna
get tired again in one game. So you're saying, boy,
(21:51):
that'd be I not that I wish injury upon the players,
but I almost wish Alexander to, you know, get a
little hobble during practice, and everyone's gonna be like, oh
my god, the players are gone again. It's gonna be
that twenty nine rank D or rank D. But lo
and behold, you're gonna say, no, no, no, they're not fatigued.
And that's the key. Yes. Be sure to catch live
(22:17):
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm
Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
I Heart Radio app
You're listening to Fox Sports, the lead to me has
to be Vegas style. How the m v P prohibitively
priced right now to be the m v P. Lamar
Jackson fell so short in a game that they should
have won eight times out of ten based upon the odds. Yeah,
(00:21):
it was a stunner. On Saturday night, Lamar Jackson and
the number one seated Ravens fall to the Tennessee Titans.
Another road win for Tennessee twelve in Baltimore. If as
number one takeaway, like, what do we learn from this game?
Turnovers are so critical? R J? Baltimore was minus three
in turnovers. Now we know if we look at our database,
(00:42):
if your minus three, you only win the game ten
percent of the time. But I'm gonna make the case
r J, that the turnovers were in minus three. I
want to make the case it was minus seven because
Baltimore went oh for four on fourth down conversions. Okay,
so hold on a second. What do we assume is
going to be the conversion rate on fourth down? Well,
Baltimore was seven. Was number one in the NFL at
(01:04):
seventy two percent for for fourth down conversion. So historically,
over the course of this year, they would have converted
three out of four. Okay, well, no, seventy two is
I mean, I know it's gonna make your point if
we skew it that way, but let's just try to
stay with the facts here, and we would agree if
anytime someone's number one, the team's number one, we're gonna
assume they've had some luck involved, right, yes, and they
(01:25):
were eight. Hold on, hold on, hold on, I know
you've got your speed. You want me to sit back
or do you want to talk? Go ahead? Thank you,
Thank you so much. Stevezi got mar J Bell, the
host and executive producer of the show. Steve Fezick is
a rotating seat to my right. You're here today, right tomorrow,
(01:46):
you're off, all right. So here's my question. If it's
sevent through the season and their number one in the league,
we would assume that if we if I were going
to bet you next year, in fact, you have a
chance to put your money where your mouth is, I'll
bet you that the fourth down conversions for the Ravens
are under seventy next year. Let's say we'll do it, dime. No,
(02:10):
thank you, Why not? You were just saying seventy five
three out of four. Well, Baltimore is probably not gonna
be as good, so why would we assume they'd be
good in the next game against better competition? All right,
Tennessee has a better defense in an average team, right, Yes, okay,
so let's call it two out of three. And I'm
probably being nice to you. You agree, I agree? But no,
(02:30):
hold on, you want to get to your point. Why
don't we see what your point is? Well, they failed
twice on fourth and one r J. And then I
get it. I know that that Nick writes said, oh
they were over or seven and o in that spot.
I we can regurgitate that stuff that we're blue. But
what does seven and no mean? I mean, yeah, you're
supposed to convert fourth and ones more than half the time.
(02:52):
I got it. So they probably should have not failed
in either of those. But where where were they on
the field? So the end of the first half they
were driving and then they started a third quarter and
they were driving in the red zone? Okay, So where
were they on the field? Approximately the twenty yard line
of the Titans. Both okay, So you can say, effectively,
(03:13):
if they would have kicked the field goal, we can
assume a field goal is almost certain and from that range,
especially with Tucker. So they gave up six points it
sounds like and the two spots I meaning if they
kicked the field goal both times, they would have given
the ball back to the Titans times would probably got
the ball after the after the kickoff and about the
same range that the conversion happened where they didn't convert
(03:35):
the fourth right, So really plus six Baltimore would have benefited. Yes,
So how much would they have lost by? They would
have lost by ten? Okay, so now what, Well, there's
the other three turnovers and the other two failed fourth
down conversied. Okay, what were those at? What point of
the game was it? The other two failures were in
the fourth quarter there, both fourth and five, and we're
(03:57):
at again driving but not in the red zone yet. Okay, So,
and those are fifty fifty kind of shots, right, So
they should have made one of those. And if they
had even made that one and then scored a touchdown,
they would have still lost. So if everything you say
would have pretty much fallen the Ravens way reasonably, not
(04:18):
in a perfect world, they still would have lost the game, right,
meaning if not that, if they would have converted every
fourth down and scored a touchdown on it. But if
we would have converted out and say, let's say they
didn't take such a big chance and kick the field
goals instead, let's say they make one out of two
of the fourth downs, which is all you can hope for,
they still lose. So that seems to be the story
(04:40):
to me, right if we were trying to explain how
did they lose by sixteen points? I think you're analysis
is quite good, but we're trying to figure out how
they got to the point it was even a close game.
Do you have any thoughts on that, because that, to
me is the story. Yeah, that defense had been playing
so well for ball Baltimore, Derrick Henry, we worried about
(05:01):
him being a little banged up after thirty plus curious
he ran, He ran all over Baltimore, no no doubt
about that. We we can get the box score out
and see that one. Jonas, what's your take. I think
that Baltimore got behind in the game, and they hadn't
had a lot of experience playing from behind in games,
and I think they just were a little shell shocked.
(05:22):
And Tennessee was relentless and Tannehill did just enough to
keep him off off guard to where he went deep
with the football, throw a touchdown pass, there, a trick
play with Derrick Henry at the goal line. It just
seemed like they couldn't gather what Tennessee was trying to
do all night long. I think the idea that Baltimore
(05:43):
has benefited from the lead is probably to me. The
takeaway is we did uh actually looked at football outsiders
last week and they have a stat what is the
average score when the other team, the opponent takes possession?
And all right, so beginning the game you kick it
off to him. What's the score margin? Zero? Right? You
(06:05):
up by thirty you kick it off. So what's the
average throughout the season. And Baltimore had the best average
where the opponent was down by nine points on average.
Patriots were second at seven points and then down from there.
If you're down by over a score on average against
(06:26):
the defense, that lends itself to playing particularly well when ahead.
Why would that Baltimore defense do that is because they
blitz a lot. They have a variety of blitzes, and
if you know the opponent's gonna throw man, those blitzes
can be effective. I think the whole offseason fed or
(06:48):
not the whole off season, but the whole second half
of this season, we've been thinking, Man, the Ravens d
it's one of the top five, and it's because of
Jimmy Smith. It's because of Peters. Oh, he's good, except
the genius, the boy genius supposedly Will Calm traded him
for what a fourth round pick? Fifth round pick? How
(07:11):
great is he? I don't know. Maybe it was a
mindset thing with the Rams. I don't know, but I
know Jimmy smithsman in the league for quite a while,
the number one pick. Never really heard a lot about him,
you know, as a Steelers fan, I knew about him.
I know about him. I never thought, you know what,
the Steelers need have had Jimmy Smith, that would all
(07:31):
be better. And it just seems strange to me that
that was the conversation for so long about how good
Jimmy Smith was. Is he better than his backup? Yeah?
But to me it feels like that this was more
of a story. In hindsight, now we have the benefit
that the Ravens had such a big lead in these
(07:55):
games on average, and they felt like when they had
that lead. They were so installed pupable that the opponents
were desperate, and that desperation, that frantic nous lad the inefficiency.
It led to a compounding of mistakes, pick six of
strip sacks and when it was a tight game, or
in this case, they were playing from behind and Kinnesse
(08:17):
benefited from being able to be defensively uh keyed into
Lamar having to throw and Colin made a great point
on that today Lamar is not the best quarterback one behind.
We know that, right, So it strikes me this is
more about that we didn't see clearly that the Ravens
(08:39):
only play this while, or at least as well as
they did throughout the year, from the lead or as
a really good team. And maybe that's Kansas City and
we'll talk about that, but a really good team can
play from the lead and from behind. Does that does
that resonate big time? And you predicted that last week
on our podcast r J you talked about, Wow, You're
(09:00):
like Baltimore that that defense. I'm not going to put
them in the top five FeAs I'm paraphrasing, of course,
because they they're they're great when they have the lead.
But we haven't seen them hit in the mouth. We
haven't seen them behind. How are they going to respond?
And obviously you were very imprescient because they did not
respond well at all, and it didn't look like they
wanted any part of two under fifty pound Derrick Henry
punching them in the mouth. Be sure to catch live
(09:26):
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app So r J was a wild one
in Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs, trailing by twenty
four to nothing at one point, end up winning the
game outright a twenty point winner. Fifty one thirty one
(09:49):
was the final, which was well over the over under
and it was your bet of the decade, You're over
under bet of the decade, and it was another winner
for r J. Bellingham one day. You know something, I
didn't really want to talk about this, but now that
you've brought it up, Jonas, I mean, what am I
gonna do? I mean, I didn't mean to make you blush,
(10:12):
just you know, given the facts, a lot of people
estimate that millions were one on it, and if you
think about it, it's probably true. Right, because we have
hundreds of thousands of listeners. Let's say one out of
ten took me up on it. Out the other nine
you'd say are foolish, but okay, so one let's call it. Uh,
(10:32):
let's just say twenty thousand. If they bet how much
each a right five dollars would be a hundred thousand.
So even if the average bet was fifty dollars, it
was a million bucks that I gave the world. I
took from the bookies. I reached in the bookies pocket,
(10:54):
yanked it out and spread it around like Robin Hood.
But I didn't want to talk about it. Thank you,
though you had the best interests at home. Yeah, of course.
Now a lot of people would say, r J. You
should especially be excited because you cover it went over
in the first half. It literally took half the game,
And I'm like, yeah, you're right, but I don't want
(11:16):
to talk about Then others would say, well, wait a minute,
the tea the one team went over, and I'd be true,
but again, please enough gut fast and something on this
and the highest scoring first half. Get this in NFL
postseason history matches your decade of the year over. But
(11:39):
again we're only as good as their last win. So
what I would say is thank you and actually all
joking aside. The feedback was wonderful on it, and as
I say, we've been red hot, I've been read hot
on these like super duper plays. It's not like this
usually you try. I mean, if you can win six
(11:59):
out of ten of your super dupers, you're lucky. That's
not really a technical term super duper. But I don't
know if it's because I feel I do think about that.
There might be a million dollars or some variation on this.
So I try to be super judicious about it, and
we'll try to keep it up. But don't let a
couple of wins make it seem like they're short things.
(12:21):
They're not. Because it kind of seemed like it, but
it's not fas. What's your takeaway on the game itself?
I thought, by the way we did tease it, let's
talk about it. What were the end game on? Yeah,
so when Kansas City trailed twenty four nothing, Kansas City
was a three to one underdog to win the game.
It's so funny. Listen, I love calling Cowherd. I mean,
(12:41):
we do have a segment on this show called Colin
Cowherd is crazy. So we're not afraid to be critical
the way Colin was acting like, well yeah we yeah,
twenty four nothing they were at home, Yeah, no, nothing
to concern ourselves with. Come on, all right, there's a
way that, no way that you could not be concerned
(13:04):
if you're in Kansas City, batter, especially if you're laying
on I wonder what I mean, that's interesting. What would
the a ten point tease if you think about it,
from just to pick them. I mean, do we say
like five to one, six to one? Did they cover?
I think eight to one? I mean it was eight
(13:25):
to one on the cover. Oh my gosh, So what
did we say? Misleading final? I can make the case
Kansas City should have won by more r J specifically,
how did they get so far behind? And I know
we hate to like go ahead and cherry pick these
weird plays, but go ahead, more team crazy special teams points,
blocked punt touchdown and then essentially a dropped punt touchdown
(13:49):
Casey gifted Houston fourteen points. And remember now is it's
now eight no is when the opponent has been out
gained on the season. And again talking about how ye
matters and outscored on the season, and Houston had been
both when they reached the division round this century. It
(14:09):
had been seven prior times. Now it's eight. That they
lose the game, they do not make the conference final.
No team, and again this year, no team that's been
outscored and outyarded on the season. Stats matter over the
long term, and I think we saw it took it
went about as well as it could have for Houston,
(14:31):
I think it's fair to say, and they still got
dominated in the game. Jonas, what was your main takeaway? Um,
I felt better about Kansas City trailing that I did
Baltimore trailing. It's the one of the more one of
the weirdest games I've ever seen. And I was exhausted afterwards,
and it felt like there were two or three different
(14:52):
games inside one game. But I wonder and I and
I asked fees this before the show. Had Houston scored
a touchdown, went up twenty one to nothing, had they
gone for it and actually scored a touchdown instead of
settling for the field goal, how much would the end
game odds have changed with them up twenty eight nothing
as opposed to just nothing. Be sure to catch live
(15:17):
editions of Straight Out of Vegas Weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific. That was the finale of the divisional weekend.
It was the green Bay Packers onto the NFC title game.
Green Bay a three win over the Seattle Seahawks. Best
back green Bay. I agreed with you. You were right
rock solid that said. It could have went either way.
(15:39):
Most games can. Main take away. Main takeaway is that
green Bay benefited from Seattle hurting it running back. So
we saw Lynch get two yards per carry. We barely
saw Homer get any carries. And bottom line is green
Bay's biggest weakness on defense. You can run on them
and Seattle could not take advantage of that. Okay, but
that was your handicap before the game. You're saying it
when it that way and still we barely covered. So
(16:03):
does that cause you do you downgrade green Bay off
this game? You know? I did not downgrade. Did you
upgrade them? Definitely was not going to upgrade. It's either
going to keep them the same or downgrade, meaning that
after the game, as you were contemplating, So this is
something Vegas does that no one else does. We would
say this team just one Everyone's talking and taking their bows.
(16:25):
They're like anyone that like green Bay. Now, I'm not
going to talk about the people like Seattle. I'm gonna
talk about Seattle was overrated, because let's be candid, and
I'm being sincere here. If Seattle had the running backs,
this could have been a different easily would have been
a different game. And I still would be sitting here
today saying Seattle is overrated. If they had one, even
(16:47):
if they were healthy with their running backs, I would
say it, just like I'm gonna say right now, green
Bay is overrated. What's the early line, san Fran green
Bay fat? It's seven to seven and a half. So
what we're saying here is the line Minnesota had played
road road, which is challenging. Cousins out of his one
(17:10):
o'clock comfort zone line was seven. This line is slightly higher.
That means that Minnesota, the market considers even before green
even after green Bay. After green Bay has the benefit
of winning this game, Minnesota last week was considered to
be better than green Bay is right now, even after
(17:31):
winning this game. To me, I still think they're overrated.
I think green Bay has is the second most overrated
team in all football this year. And I think Seattle
was number one. Someone had to win this game, and
what I expect is going to be I expect domination
with San fran though, the question becomes, is that defense
(17:55):
what we thought it was? It looked like it was
on the scoreboard right out. Fox Sports Radio has the
best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of
our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within
the I Heart Radio app search f s R to
listen live. It was the forty Niners all over the
(18:17):
Minnesota Vikings on Saturday in the Bay Area. Twenty seven
to ten was the final to me. Entering the game,
the question was this, how good was the forty Niners
defense with many of their injured players Alexander likely back,
others not so sure. They all played right? Yea? Also,
(18:38):
and how good was that d because it's easy to say,
just like we were skeptical of the Ravens being oh,
just because the Ravens got back Jimmy Smith, they were
so good. No, no, no, I was skeptical of that.
I still am. More so now I was skeptical that
that's all it was. With the forty nine nurs we
(19:00):
got one game of data that says maybe it was
a lot of the injuries. Yeah. I want to talk
though about the bye week. San Francisco had a time. No,
no, no no, no. What I want to talk about is
how do you believe the bye week is what was
the big driver on the defense. Yes, so you're saying
more so than the injuries. Yes, because Kans If Alexander
(19:21):
was out and Brown was out or four I'm sorry
I was out, but they were rested, you would have thought,
all this team is just as good, not as good,
all right, but but but the rest was more than
the players coming. And the reason I say that is
Alexander on the statue did nothing in this game, didn't
have any tackles, so it was shocking how little he
(19:43):
showed up in the box. How many but how many
snaps did he play? A big chunk of it he
did play, and the team did say, gave him a
tremendous emotional boost. Oh my gosh, that sounds like like
Lucas on the All right, so do you try Are
you able to just look at tackles and interceptions or
whatever and say that's really telling about how important the
(20:04):
defensive players? I can, I cannot, But a middle linebacker
should fill up the statuet. Okay, so you're saying it's
easy now to say there's another example where it's the
default on the talking head shows are gonna say, uh oh,
look Brown's back. In fact, I think I heard that
a few times today. You're saying, nah, could help next week,
could help in the future. But this was more about
(20:26):
the forty Niners finally got to buy exactly right because
the forty Niners did. They had a bye week four.
Every other playoff team had their byas week eight or later.
In that defense, really the eye tests that they're looking tired,
they're looking worned down, and having that full week off
here in the bye week I think was critical. That
defense was flying everywhere on in this game. On Saturday,
(20:48):
Brad Powers, let me ask you, do you remember fast
talking about now last week on Friday? It was kind
of like one of those Eureka moments. He was reading
and reading and reading. He uncovered something came in Friday
was one of the highlights of the show. Talked about
the forty nine had been h twelve thirteen weeks since
they had to bye. He thought that bye was going
(21:10):
to do them good. He was right at scene, but
before that Friday. Had you heard him talk about the
forty niners of fatigue at all? It's interesting about the
injury eye test. It wasn't quite the eye test. Who
was it? It was not old Fast. You gotta love him, though,
(21:30):
I mean, he keeps trying. I'm in third grade, Andy,
and I know not to lie, but you should just
tell the truth. Ft just say you know something. I
didn't even realize it was a fatigue, but then I
did because no one else has. So they're not gonna
get tired again in one game. So you're saying, boy,
(21:51):
that'd be I not that I wish injury upon the players,
but I almost wish Alexander to, you know, get a
little hobble during practice, and everyone's gonna be like, oh
my god, the players are gone again. It's gonna be
that twenty nine rank D or rank D. But lo
and behold, you're gonna say, no, no, no, they're not fatigued.
And that's the key. Yes. Be sure to catch live
(22:17):
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm
Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
I Heart Radio app
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