January 9, 2019 • 25 mins
On today's "Best of" Straight Outta Vegas with RJ Bell, the crew breaks down everything from Clemson's dominant 44-16 victory over Alabama in the College Football National Championship. With so much talk about how historically good 'Bama was this season, the guys examine how Vegas got this so wrong and look into how future odds flipped from before kickoff to the end of the game. They discuss how Clemson would stack up against the great teams from recent history plus Fezzik delivers his weekly early line movement on the Colts/Chiefs game.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. We start with the
Bay Area beat down as Clemson hammered Alabama sixteen last night,
the second national championship for head coach Dabbo Swiney and
the worst loss in Nick Saban's Alabama career. So, r J,
what is the Vegas perspective on the dominating performance from
(00:23):
the Tigers? Wow, just think for a minute. Whenever you
hear the word lock. Right in our business sports betting information,
if you hear the word lock, be scared because what
does law imply? It means? It's a short thing, easy money,
(00:43):
Bet the house, bet the car, bet the kids. As
some would say, not me, others Now, Brad, how many
points at Alabama lose by? Okay, now imagine, imagine and
be honest with yourself. Imagine someone offered you Alabama yesterday
(01:06):
plus twenty seven and a half points. How much would
you have bet, the house, the car, everything, I had,
the kids, and you would have lost? Now, obviously I
don't know fez plus twenty seven and a half plus percent, right,
(01:29):
I think? Yeah, But it's not a lock. So whatever
you do, and it brings up another question. Whatever you do,
First understand there's no locks right, number two? What should
the line have been yesterday? Meaning I'm not saying what
would we make it today? We're gonna talk about that
(01:51):
actually and a minute these teams replayed. But I'm saying
the line was wrong. I'm sure, but I'm not sure
it was that wrong. And I'm pretty sure, in fact,
I'm certain Clemson shouldn't have been a double digit favorite
in that game. So results often times are very random
(02:11):
across a spectrum of possible results. Alb if these teams
played ten times, Obama's win in multiple times, that's for sure.
So the idea that all in hindsight that line should
have been taking Now, the line was probably wrong, the
line should have been and let's talk about it now, Brad.
(02:31):
If these teams, and I think this is gonna shock people,
everyone guess right now, if Alabama and Clemson played in
ten days, what would you think the point spread in
Vegas should be? Brad? What would you make the number?
Pick them? Pick them? So the line was five and
a half Clemson, You're gonna upgrade Clemson three points, downgrade
(02:54):
Alabama two and a half some variation, and get it
to pick them. Physic, what would you a you're line
in independently pick them all right. So on one hand,
there's two different ways to react to that. On one hand,
you could say, wait a minute, the team that just
devastated Bama, you're telling me I could bet them and
(03:14):
even money to do it again. Probably I think that
you guys are probably about right. And then on the
other hand, you could be saying, wait a minute, one
game is adjusting things by almost six points, and that's
an important point. There's no NFL game ever ever that's
(03:35):
gonna adjust the line, I mean, other than injury, even
close to six points, just never. And it goes to
show you we know so little about these college football
teams in the NFL. There's only sixteen games, but they're
sixteen competitive games. Even if you know, fourteen point favorite
(03:59):
against zone is competitive, right. We saw in fact, Buffalo
is a sixteen and a half point favorite beat Minnesota
this year. They're competitive games. How many games did and Brad,
you had to stat here yesterday, neither Clemson nor Alabama
had played a single game that the spread was single digits.
(04:19):
Every game they were double They had borderline a few
competitive games and that's it. Yeah, the team had maybe
a couple of competitive games, but from a point spread.
Neither team and been laying single digits until yesterday's game.
So we learned. It's almost like the third game of
an NFL season. You can learn a lot because you
don't know much about these teams, even though it's the
last game of the year. We don't know. We didn't
(04:43):
know very much about Alabama Clemson, and quite frankly, this
one game doesn't tow us a massive amount, right It
tells this Clemson as better than we thought in Alabama
is not as good as we thought, but doesn't tell
you a lot more than that. And I think it's
important to realize that. And whenever you get lost with
(05:05):
that concept, think about basketball. Think about the Lakers the
year they played the seventis, you know, with Kobe and
Shack and that first game with Ai I tend to remember.
I think the line was like twelve and a half
and the Sixers won. Now, imagine if it was a
one game series. Oh, that Laker team was overrated, right, Well,
(05:26):
they won the next four. Now it doesn't mean Bama
would win the next four. It just means that yesterday
was one game. I'm r J bel straight out of
Vegas breaking down what we should take away from the
National Championship game. All that said, Brad, in our production meeting,
there was discussion of maybe, and I'm gonna say in
(05:47):
a slightly affected voice to show my disapproval, maybe the
uh dynasty is over for Bama. I came out of
your mouth. That makes some thoughts. I've heard it from
the media. May be the dynasty's Oh you were just regurging. Yeah, no,
we have now not one dynasty Alabama. Now we have
(06:07):
two dynasties in college football. That was my take. Well,
let me ask you a few questions. How many national
titles is Nick saban half six? And how many with
Bama five? I was at that l s U Oklahoma game,
so I remember that one Okay and Clemson? How many
to too? That's interesting. So here's the thing you also
(06:32):
in production we're talking about some variation of you know, Sweeney's.
It's kind of like a family with those guys, and
with Saban it's so mercenary. Do you want to explain
your thoughts? Yeah, I mean sabans has really been struggling
with a lot of turnover, particularly staff, turnover seven different
offensive and defensive coordinators in the last four years, you
(06:52):
can only have eight different ones. Only one guy stayed
on for multiple seasons. Clemson, that's complete opposite. They've had
the same offensive defense coordinators each the last four years.
So doesn't that make the case that what Alabama has
done is even more amazing that one day Clemson is
going to look back. Let's assume Sweeney's there in fifteen
(07:13):
years and say, wow, it was so much easier when
the confluence of events allowed us to keep our key
coordinators and we had continuity. And oh, by the way,
wasn't it nice when we had Deshaun Watson as a quarterback?
Because how many national titles did Sweeney have before DeShawn Watson? Zero?
(07:35):
And he was this wasn't his first year, right, I mean,
how many years is he coached to Clemson. He's been
there since two thousand and eight. Okay, now, there's some
amazing stats with sweeney last seven years. And you've been
driving Brad powers these numbers. They've been in bowl games
and playoff games nine times and seven years, all right, well,
(07:57):
actually ten times, right? But why of them? They were
a favorite nine times? Nine times they've been underdogs. Clemson,
they're eight and one against the spread. That's amazing, But
seven times they've won out right. Now, imagine you're playing
at the highest level playoff games Vegas, and we'll bet
you that we're right, said Clemson, you're supposed to lose
(08:21):
nine times, and seven times they said, no, thank you,
we're gonna put the w on the board. That's impressive.
But it's been with pretty much the same coordinators, right,
and it's been with Deshaun Watson, and now it's with
Trevor Lawrence, a guy, a player, a quarterback that I
heard Colin Cowherd on Fox Sports Radio, maybe the biggest
(08:46):
voice in radio saying he's better prospect Trevor Lawrence than
Andrew luck that this is the best prospect he's seen
since John Alway. I'm not sure about any of that.
The fact that we're saying the best prospects since John
Elway and Deshaun Watson and continuity with coordinators for Clemson,
(09:12):
and they've got two titles, but somehow we're gonna say, well,
let's exalt their style. But over there with Nick Satan,
I mean Saban Oh, he's got six titles, but somehow
his process because he lost this game, is less. It
seems like it takes Clemson a perfect storm of a
super elague quarterback, because I think we would agree Deshaun
(09:34):
Watson is better than any Alabama quarterback, right, and Trevor
Lawrence is better than any Alabama quarterback. He's better than
two last night. So I agree. And they've got two titles.
Saban has never had any of that, never had continuity,
and he's got six. So listen, let's give Clemson a
ton of credit. Right, And maybe they're one of the
(09:55):
best teams ever, and we can talk about that in
a second. But I tell you, it seems to me,
if we're gonna talk about systems, if we're gonna talk
about who's the better coach, I think we should exalt
the Sweeney's created this ideal, like this consistent place where
there's a sense of family. But boy, if that doesn't continue,
(10:17):
what the odds of that continuing? I think it's gonna
be difficult. Whereas those coordinators, I mean the Alabama coordinators
didn't leave with a lateral job. They left to become
that coaches, right, So at some point you know that
you're gonna see the same thing happened at Clemson. Now
can he do that? And then with the fifth coordinator's
(10:38):
sixth coordinator. Can he do that without having an all
time great quarterback? Can he do it? You might say, well,
he's able to recruit those guys. We know there's a
roll of the dice with that stuff. So on one hand,
I want to tip my cap to Clemson and how
good they are and how good and impressive out performance
(10:58):
was yesterday. But I would make the case. I would
make the case that if you look at what Savings
done and the challenges he's faced doing it versus Sweeney,
it's not even a contest. Brad agreed, disagree, agree with that. Look,
I'm not saying Sweeney is better than Saving by any stretch,
but I am saying that Sweeney's getting close. Especially when
(11:20):
you got one guy in nerv and Meyer leaving college football,
it's nice to have another guy that's close to saving.
When you guys see how a game like that shapes up,
in which Alabama's you know, starts out a nine point
favorite in some spots and they get blown out by
multiple scores, do you guys find it more difficult to
handicap a one game championship game or game one of
(11:42):
a seven game series. Well, I mean to me, if
you're good at what you do, it doesn't matter what
it is. I want as many reps as possible, right,
So physik you know, grew up in chess clubs and such.
No one's listen, no one's judging it, right. I've used
to play chess, but I and I and I still do.
(12:03):
But I just never was wanted to go to chess clubs,
right because I don't want to have to fight my
way home. And but Fez would beat me in in
in more than a chess game. But if you said,
play one game against Fez, my chance of beating Fez
at chess is much greater than if we played the
best of eleven or race to twelve wins or something.
(12:26):
So in general, as professionals, we think we have an edge.
History says we have an edge, So Jonas we want
as many reps as we can get, as many cracks
at the opportunity as we can get. Be sure to
catch live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at
(12:46):
six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio
and the I Heart Radio app so r J. Coming
off the big win for Clemson last night in the
National Championship, game. Everybody is wondering if Clemson were to
stack up against some of the great teams in years past,
how would they do? What does Vegas say? Well, Brad,
(13:07):
you're the youngster here all the college knowledge. How many
years have you been making power ratings? Maybe personally five
last five years? Okay, where's Clemson rank? Number one in
the last five years? Number one in the last five years?
All right? Now, as a fan, not with your exact rankings,
(13:28):
Let's say the BCS ERA onward. Let's say, where do
you rank this year's Clemson champion team two behind the
two thousand one Miami team. M hmm okay, now that's
the Miami team that the next year lost to the
Buckeyes call very well officiated game. I thought, that's a
personal opinion. You know what's funny. You know who the
(13:51):
d Backs coach in Miami was, Mark Stoops Ye watched
the film on that He went wild on that call.
Let's just say I was at that game. All right. Now,
I'm a little confused. Clemson best team in the last
five years. You're saying in your power rankings, second best
team in your opinion in the BCS ERA since so
(14:16):
ninety eight onward. But you're saying this Bama team that
just got embarrassed would be pick him against him, which
means everything we just said about Clemson, we can say
about Bama. Second best team in the BCS ere the
team we saw last night, Alabama is the second best
team of the BCS era. Yep, you didn't want to
(14:40):
say consider the previous fourteen games where everyone considered him
except what did Let's look back, what did we see
in those fourteen games? Because I gotta tell you this
stubbornness in the face of let's say convention, like everyone
wants you to say something, but you refused to. I
(15:02):
respect that stubbornness in the face of facts, not so much.
It's hard to make money that way. I was feeling
as if you were pretty stubborn about Georgia, right, and
Georgia gets dominated by uh, you know, above average Texas
team physically dominated and your response and I'm not gonna
(15:25):
try to imitate your voice, but it was some variation
of you know, did you see that Alabama game? Well,
in hindsight, now we just saw Obama should have lost
to a Georgia team that just got man handled by Texas.
It's like what wins of Alabama gives us any confidence?
(15:48):
Really that not that this is not a good team,
a top five team this year. You're saying they're the
second best team in the last twenty years, the team
that just got dominated by twenty eight points. Yeah, I
think l s U was very Do you notice his
voice is like twenty nine nothing over L s U.
I would say, I mean, Oklahoma, what did ls You
(16:08):
have five losses, three one to Alabama and they won
ten games. LSU did a I mean Georgia won eleven games.
That's still a really good win. Oklahoma was a really
good win. Mississippi State, it's a good win. I mean
debating is Alabama top seven team this year? That all
makes sense? Fez, I gotta bring you into this. After
(16:32):
a couple of weeks you thought the Rams were the
best team of the decade. Literally like week three, I said,
what do you think the true odds are on the
Rams to win the Super Bowl? And it was like
plus two fifty or something, And I said, wait a minute.
There hasn't been a team in the last decade with
odds that I guess good. You could say that they
(16:53):
were such a favorite to win the Super Bowl, You're like, yep, yep.
So like it seems like that because of the twenty
four hour news cycle, because of the I think seemed
boring in six hours. I mean, if you're really plugged in,
if you're on Twitter, if you're really plugged in, something happens,
Oh my gosh, can you believe it? And then literally
(17:16):
a couple of hours later, it's like old news, right,
Like literally even fifteen years ago you probably wouldn't have
heard it yet, and now it's old news. I mean,
I don't care what it is, like. I mean, I'm
sure there could be some things, right, but like, what
what is the longest news story we've had in sports,
(17:39):
in politics in the last let's say two years, Meaning
is any news has any story been at the forefront
of our minds for over a week? The last big
one it is probably Trump won and the President say
yeah and and and that's that was a big story,
but it quickly went to, Okay, what's he gonna do.
People's coming to Trump Tower, Romnie's having dinner with him.
(17:59):
So it's like, to me, we're constantly having to embrace
or at least we're searching out for stimulus. And because
of that we want to make draft like we want
everything to be jacked up. It's like we want to
put Tabasco sauce on everything so it has an extra
zing or a zest. Like in a twenty year period,
(18:20):
there's gonna be one team that's the best team, but
we want to have the best team in the last
twenty years every year. I really believe as handicappers, as
we see the public in the marketplace overreact. I mean,
if you put that Alabama resume up and say this
is the best team, were the second best team in
(18:41):
the last twenty years, tied with Clemson, It's it seems ludicrous.
You have a prior to that game, marginally their first
team since like pen to win their first all twelve
games the regular season by twenty points or more, which
brings up the point of who they really play. And
I think maybe we got they didn't be that Oklahoma
twenty points one, the team that Army tied and went
(19:03):
to overtime with. I think we may have been fooled
by what a great bully Alabama was, with that great offense,
that they could crush teams fifty to ten instead of
winning thirty five to three. I'm RJ PO straight out
of Vegas, trying to create a historical perspective on Clemson
and Alabama. Now, Sagrin USA today, well respected, he's got
(19:27):
his power ratings. There's no prisoner of the moment with
these computer algorithms. What does it say? Has Clemson this
year's Clemson team number seven in the last twenty one years?
And where is this year's Alabama team? It would be
number eight, just slightly below really, so Saguran's numbers back
up your I you both of you, guys, Physick and Brad,
(19:47):
you both believe the power or I'm sorry. These teams
played again, Clemson Alabama in a week ten days, the
game would be picked them and Saguran's pretty much saying
this same guy. Clemson by almost one point. But right there, Wow,
I just do you think the Rams are one of
the best, the best team of the decade? Now, fes,
(20:09):
I think I've got the Rams braided number three, tied
with four other teams right now this year. R j
al Right now, speaking of missteps mistakes, Listen, we're not
afraid to take our bows when we win, right, so
we've got to face facts when we don't Fez tell
us about your prop bet yesterday. Yes, so I had
(20:30):
the Clemson running back E t N under eighty three
rush yards. It all looked so good. Going into Clemson's
last drive, he had thirty rush yards. Clemson's up twenty eight.
I don't even think he's gonna play anymore upbeats out there.
That's fine, and they're running out the clock seven yards,
two yards. I'm gonna win this bet. And all of
(20:51):
a sudden, what's this? E t N breaks free on
his very last rush. He gained thirty eight yards to
put him at eighty six. I personally had under eighty
five and a half. I lost big after that run.
They high fived him and they took him out of
the game. Now O joking aside, have you looked at
the updated stats, because sometimes after the game they'll change
(21:13):
those numbers. They didn't. Did you look? Yes? All right,
so you would think, Okay, Fez loses one, Brad Powers,
how did you do? Depending on what line you got,
how did you do well? I gave out two a
ton of biolo of completions over twenty one and a half,
but I think a lot of people got twenty two,
twenty two and a half. Here's what happens to us breezing,
(21:36):
I mean alabam again, blown out. It's perfect for mine.
What is this gonna throw? He's gonna throw every down
and he gets there. He gets to twenty two. Some
most people, some people want, most people push, some people
even lost, and he gets taken out of the game
with twelve minutes. Okay, so it few twenty two. Who
was your by price on the show yesterday? Twenty one
and a half? Okay? I saw a lot of people
on Twitter talking people didn't and so what is your number?
(22:02):
My number? Yeah, one and a half? Alright, snuck in, Hey, kids, shop,
shop for your numbers. The only munster here is the
gambling munster that has enslaved your mother. I call him Gambler,
and it's time to snatch your mother from his cos
that's for thank you. Be sure to catch live editions
(22:27):
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
three pm Pacific. We it is a Tuesday tradition. Here
on Straight Out of Vegas, we get an early best
bet and line movement prediction from Steve Fezik on on
the year Steve Fezik with his picks ten two in
one predicting the line move nine one in three. So, Fez,
(22:47):
where are we at this week? Let me think about that,
Fez in front of the world. Your talent. It's like
a magician telling people the way line moves, telling people
what the bat on Tuesday. It's been great, but you
did lose your prop back at and it just goes
to show you, in this game we play, how important
it is to be. Let's just say persevere. I got
(23:07):
tiger scratches on my back from twenty years in this business.
Let me tell you something. If you want to survive,
you either got to fight the tiger. Well, you gotta
dance with the tiger. Alright, we're gonna We're gonna dance
with the Colts. Here with the Indie Colts plus five
and a half at Kansas City, two teams going in
(23:29):
opposite directions. The Colts since week six, we can easily
make the argument they have been the best team in
the NFL. There's certainly number one in terms of scoring
differential and Kansas City, frankly has not been the same
since that game against the Rams that they lost fifty
one fifty four one four. And let me ask you
a question about the rant or I'm sorry about the Chiefs.
How much of this is cream Hunt's absence? Oh? I
(23:50):
think it's big because the number two running back, Spencer
Where simply has not been a d percent. So they're
really been trotting out their number three running back and
Where may play this week, but he won't be. Okay,
So you're saying since Hunt's been out, where has been limited? Yes,
so it's not just dropping from one to two, it's
dropping from one to a hobble two. Correct? And is
that the driver you think? I mean, it's not like
(24:12):
Kansas City's defense is getting any worse. Andy read history,
and he read historically. It feels like his schemes have
been caught up to as seasons progressed. Do you think
there's some of that too? I think Tyreek Hill has
been hobbled and has been playing at eight five percent,
so that's hurting the offense as well. And frankly, the
defense for Kansas City has been bad all year long. Okay,
(24:34):
so right now, what's the line in the game? Right now?
Indianapolis Colts are plus five and a half. All right,
So let's be clear. Physic is saying, if you agree
with him and remember his Tuesday line move predictions right here,
straight out of Vegas Coast to coast. Ten winners, two losers,
one push. Now, that's amazing. That pick is the Colts.
(24:54):
Now your line moves saying, hey bet the Coats now,
don't wait the line moves. You've been right nine times,
wrong once three times. There hasn't been a line move,
which really, whenever you bet it didn't matter, so the
times it mattered. So if you do like the Colts
because physic likes it, because you like it, whatever, physics
(25:16):
picture affirm that even more. But on top of that,
he's telling you the number you can get now is
likely the best number you're gonna get, Colts plus the
points physic Megan. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
(25:36):
at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I
Heart Radio app. Search f s R to listen live.
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. We start with the
Bay Area beat down as Clemson hammered Alabama sixteen last night,
the second national championship for head coach Dabbo Swiney and
the worst loss in Nick Saban's Alabama career. So, r J,
what is the Vegas perspective on the dominating performance from
(00:23):
the Tigers? Wow, just think for a minute. Whenever you
hear the word lock. Right in our business sports betting information,
if you hear the word lock, be scared because what
does law imply? It means? It's a short thing, easy money,
(00:43):
Bet the house, bet the car, bet the kids. As
some would say, not me, others Now, Brad, how many
points at Alabama lose by? Okay, now imagine, imagine and
be honest with yourself. Imagine someone offered you Alabama yesterday
(01:06):
plus twenty seven and a half points. How much would
you have bet, the house, the car, everything, I had,
the kids, and you would have lost? Now, obviously I
don't know fez plus twenty seven and a half plus percent, right,
(01:29):
I think? Yeah, But it's not a lock. So whatever
you do, and it brings up another question. Whatever you do,
First understand there's no locks right, number two? What should
the line have been yesterday? Meaning I'm not saying what
would we make it today? We're gonna talk about that
(01:51):
actually and a minute these teams replayed. But I'm saying
the line was wrong. I'm sure, but I'm not sure
it was that wrong. And I'm pretty sure, in fact,
I'm certain Clemson shouldn't have been a double digit favorite
in that game. So results often times are very random
(02:11):
across a spectrum of possible results. Alb if these teams
played ten times, Obama's win in multiple times, that's for sure.
So the idea that all in hindsight that line should
have been taking Now, the line was probably wrong, the
line should have been and let's talk about it now, Brad.
(02:31):
If these teams, and I think this is gonna shock people,
everyone guess right now, if Alabama and Clemson played in
ten days, what would you think the point spread in
Vegas should be? Brad? What would you make the number?
Pick them? Pick them? So the line was five and
a half Clemson, You're gonna upgrade Clemson three points, downgrade
(02:54):
Alabama two and a half some variation, and get it
to pick them. Physic, what would you a you're line
in independently pick them all right. So on one hand,
there's two different ways to react to that. On one hand,
you could say, wait a minute, the team that just
devastated Bama, you're telling me I could bet them and
(03:14):
even money to do it again. Probably I think that
you guys are probably about right. And then on the
other hand, you could be saying, wait a minute, one
game is adjusting things by almost six points, and that's
an important point. There's no NFL game ever ever that's
(03:35):
gonna adjust the line, I mean, other than injury, even
close to six points, just never. And it goes to
show you we know so little about these college football
teams in the NFL. There's only sixteen games, but they're
sixteen competitive games. Even if you know, fourteen point favorite
(03:59):
against zone is competitive, right. We saw in fact, Buffalo
is a sixteen and a half point favorite beat Minnesota
this year. They're competitive games. How many games did and Brad,
you had to stat here yesterday, neither Clemson nor Alabama
had played a single game that the spread was single digits.
(04:19):
Every game they were double They had borderline a few
competitive games and that's it. Yeah, the team had maybe
a couple of competitive games, but from a point spread.
Neither team and been laying single digits until yesterday's game.
So we learned. It's almost like the third game of
an NFL season. You can learn a lot because you
don't know much about these teams, even though it's the
last game of the year. We don't know. We didn't
(04:43):
know very much about Alabama Clemson, and quite frankly, this
one game doesn't tow us a massive amount, right It
tells this Clemson as better than we thought in Alabama
is not as good as we thought, but doesn't tell
you a lot more than that. And I think it's
important to realize that. And whenever you get lost with
(05:05):
that concept, think about basketball. Think about the Lakers the
year they played the seventis, you know, with Kobe and
Shack and that first game with Ai I tend to remember.
I think the line was like twelve and a half
and the Sixers won. Now, imagine if it was a
one game series. Oh, that Laker team was overrated, right, Well,
(05:26):
they won the next four. Now it doesn't mean Bama
would win the next four. It just means that yesterday
was one game. I'm r J bel straight out of
Vegas breaking down what we should take away from the
National Championship game. All that said, Brad, in our production meeting,
there was discussion of maybe, and I'm gonna say in
(05:47):
a slightly affected voice to show my disapproval, maybe the
uh dynasty is over for Bama. I came out of
your mouth. That makes some thoughts. I've heard it from
the media. May be the dynasty's Oh you were just regurging. Yeah, no,
we have now not one dynasty Alabama. Now we have
(06:07):
two dynasties in college football. That was my take. Well,
let me ask you a few questions. How many national
titles is Nick saban half six? And how many with
Bama five? I was at that l s U Oklahoma game,
so I remember that one Okay and Clemson? How many
to too? That's interesting. So here's the thing you also
(06:32):
in production we're talking about some variation of you know, Sweeney's.
It's kind of like a family with those guys, and
with Saban it's so mercenary. Do you want to explain
your thoughts? Yeah, I mean sabans has really been struggling
with a lot of turnover, particularly staff, turnover seven different
offensive and defensive coordinators in the last four years, you
(06:52):
can only have eight different ones. Only one guy stayed
on for multiple seasons. Clemson, that's complete opposite. They've had
the same offensive defense coordinators each the last four years.
So doesn't that make the case that what Alabama has
done is even more amazing that one day Clemson is
going to look back. Let's assume Sweeney's there in fifteen
(07:13):
years and say, wow, it was so much easier when
the confluence of events allowed us to keep our key
coordinators and we had continuity. And oh, by the way,
wasn't it nice when we had Deshaun Watson as a quarterback?
Because how many national titles did Sweeney have before DeShawn Watson? Zero?
(07:35):
And he was this wasn't his first year, right, I mean,
how many years is he coached to Clemson. He's been
there since two thousand and eight. Okay, now, there's some
amazing stats with sweeney last seven years. And you've been
driving Brad powers these numbers. They've been in bowl games
and playoff games nine times and seven years, all right, well,
(07:57):
actually ten times, right? But why of them? They were
a favorite nine times? Nine times they've been underdogs. Clemson,
they're eight and one against the spread. That's amazing, But
seven times they've won out right. Now, imagine you're playing
at the highest level playoff games Vegas, and we'll bet
you that we're right, said Clemson, you're supposed to lose
(08:21):
nine times, and seven times they said, no, thank you,
we're gonna put the w on the board. That's impressive.
But it's been with pretty much the same coordinators, right,
and it's been with Deshaun Watson, and now it's with
Trevor Lawrence, a guy, a player, a quarterback that I
heard Colin Cowherd on Fox Sports Radio, maybe the biggest
(08:46):
voice in radio saying he's better prospect Trevor Lawrence than
Andrew luck that this is the best prospect he's seen
since John Alway. I'm not sure about any of that.
The fact that we're saying the best prospects since John
Elway and Deshaun Watson and continuity with coordinators for Clemson,
(09:12):
and they've got two titles, but somehow we're gonna say, well,
let's exalt their style. But over there with Nick Satan,
I mean Saban Oh, he's got six titles, but somehow
his process because he lost this game, is less. It
seems like it takes Clemson a perfect storm of a
super elague quarterback, because I think we would agree Deshaun
(09:34):
Watson is better than any Alabama quarterback, right, and Trevor
Lawrence is better than any Alabama quarterback. He's better than
two last night. So I agree. And they've got two titles.
Saban has never had any of that, never had continuity,
and he's got six. So listen, let's give Clemson a
ton of credit. Right, And maybe they're one of the
(09:55):
best teams ever, and we can talk about that in
a second. But I tell you, it seems to me,
if we're gonna talk about systems, if we're gonna talk
about who's the better coach, I think we should exalt
the Sweeney's created this ideal, like this consistent place where
there's a sense of family. But boy, if that doesn't continue,
(10:17):
what the odds of that continuing? I think it's gonna
be difficult. Whereas those coordinators, I mean the Alabama coordinators
didn't leave with a lateral job. They left to become
that coaches, right, So at some point you know that
you're gonna see the same thing happened at Clemson. Now
can he do that? And then with the fifth coordinator's
(10:38):
sixth coordinator. Can he do that without having an all
time great quarterback? Can he do it? You might say, well,
he's able to recruit those guys. We know there's a
roll of the dice with that stuff. So on one hand,
I want to tip my cap to Clemson and how
good they are and how good and impressive out performance
(10:58):
was yesterday. But I would make the case. I would
make the case that if you look at what Savings
done and the challenges he's faced doing it versus Sweeney,
it's not even a contest. Brad agreed, disagree, agree with that. Look,
I'm not saying Sweeney is better than Saving by any stretch,
but I am saying that Sweeney's getting close. Especially when
(11:20):
you got one guy in nerv and Meyer leaving college football,
it's nice to have another guy that's close to saving.
When you guys see how a game like that shapes up,
in which Alabama's you know, starts out a nine point
favorite in some spots and they get blown out by
multiple scores, do you guys find it more difficult to
handicap a one game championship game or game one of
(11:42):
a seven game series. Well, I mean to me, if
you're good at what you do, it doesn't matter what
it is. I want as many reps as possible, right,
So physik you know, grew up in chess clubs and such.
No one's listen, no one's judging it, right. I've used
to play chess, but I and I and I still do.
(12:03):
But I just never was wanted to go to chess clubs,
right because I don't want to have to fight my
way home. And but Fez would beat me in in
in more than a chess game. But if you said,
play one game against Fez, my chance of beating Fez
at chess is much greater than if we played the
best of eleven or race to twelve wins or something.
(12:26):
So in general, as professionals, we think we have an edge.
History says we have an edge, So Jonas we want
as many reps as we can get, as many cracks
at the opportunity as we can get. Be sure to
catch live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at
(12:46):
six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio
and the I Heart Radio app so r J. Coming
off the big win for Clemson last night in the
National Championship, game. Everybody is wondering if Clemson were to
stack up against some of the great teams in years past,
how would they do? What does Vegas say? Well, Brad,
(13:07):
you're the youngster here all the college knowledge. How many
years have you been making power ratings? Maybe personally five
last five years? Okay, where's Clemson rank? Number one in
the last five years? Number one in the last five years?
All right? Now, as a fan, not with your exact rankings,
(13:28):
Let's say the BCS ERA onward. Let's say, where do
you rank this year's Clemson champion team two behind the
two thousand one Miami team. M hmm okay, now that's
the Miami team that the next year lost to the
Buckeyes call very well officiated game. I thought, that's a
personal opinion. You know what's funny. You know who the
(13:51):
d Backs coach in Miami was, Mark Stoops Ye watched
the film on that He went wild on that call.
Let's just say I was at that game. All right. Now,
I'm a little confused. Clemson best team in the last
five years. You're saying in your power rankings, second best
team in your opinion in the BCS ERA since so
(14:16):
ninety eight onward. But you're saying this Bama team that
just got embarrassed would be pick him against him, which
means everything we just said about Clemson, we can say
about Bama. Second best team in the BCS ere the
team we saw last night, Alabama is the second best
team of the BCS era. Yep, you didn't want to
(14:40):
say consider the previous fourteen games where everyone considered him
except what did Let's look back, what did we see
in those fourteen games? Because I gotta tell you this
stubbornness in the face of let's say convention, like everyone
wants you to say something, but you refused to. I
(15:02):
respect that stubbornness in the face of facts, not so much.
It's hard to make money that way. I was feeling
as if you were pretty stubborn about Georgia, right, and
Georgia gets dominated by uh, you know, above average Texas
team physically dominated and your response and I'm not gonna
(15:25):
try to imitate your voice, but it was some variation
of you know, did you see that Alabama game? Well,
in hindsight, now we just saw Obama should have lost
to a Georgia team that just got man handled by Texas.
It's like what wins of Alabama gives us any confidence?
(15:48):
Really that not that this is not a good team,
a top five team this year. You're saying they're the
second best team in the last twenty years, the team
that just got dominated by twenty eight points. Yeah, I
think l s U was very Do you notice his
voice is like twenty nine nothing over L s U.
I would say, I mean, Oklahoma, what did ls You
(16:08):
have five losses, three one to Alabama and they won
ten games. LSU did a I mean Georgia won eleven games.
That's still a really good win. Oklahoma was a really
good win. Mississippi State, it's a good win. I mean
debating is Alabama top seven team this year? That all
makes sense? Fez, I gotta bring you into this. After
(16:32):
a couple of weeks you thought the Rams were the
best team of the decade. Literally like week three, I said,
what do you think the true odds are on the
Rams to win the Super Bowl? And it was like
plus two fifty or something, And I said, wait a minute.
There hasn't been a team in the last decade with
odds that I guess good. You could say that they
(16:53):
were such a favorite to win the Super Bowl, You're like, yep, yep.
So like it seems like that because of the twenty
four hour news cycle, because of the I think seemed
boring in six hours. I mean, if you're really plugged in,
if you're on Twitter, if you're really plugged in, something happens,
Oh my gosh, can you believe it? And then literally
(17:16):
a couple of hours later, it's like old news, right,
Like literally even fifteen years ago you probably wouldn't have
heard it yet, and now it's old news. I mean,
I don't care what it is, like. I mean, I'm
sure there could be some things, right, but like, what
what is the longest news story we've had in sports,
(17:39):
in politics in the last let's say two years, Meaning
is any news has any story been at the forefront
of our minds for over a week? The last big
one it is probably Trump won and the President say
yeah and and and that's that was a big story,
but it quickly went to, Okay, what's he gonna do.
People's coming to Trump Tower, Romnie's having dinner with him.
(17:59):
So it's like, to me, we're constantly having to embrace
or at least we're searching out for stimulus. And because
of that we want to make draft like we want
everything to be jacked up. It's like we want to
put Tabasco sauce on everything so it has an extra
zing or a zest. Like in a twenty year period,
(18:20):
there's gonna be one team that's the best team, but
we want to have the best team in the last
twenty years every year. I really believe as handicappers, as
we see the public in the marketplace overreact. I mean,
if you put that Alabama resume up and say this
is the best team, were the second best team in
(18:41):
the last twenty years, tied with Clemson, It's it seems ludicrous.
You have a prior to that game, marginally their first
team since like pen to win their first all twelve
games the regular season by twenty points or more, which
brings up the point of who they really play. And
I think maybe we got they didn't be that Oklahoma
twenty points one, the team that Army tied and went
(19:03):
to overtime with. I think we may have been fooled
by what a great bully Alabama was, with that great offense,
that they could crush teams fifty to ten instead of
winning thirty five to three. I'm RJ PO straight out
of Vegas, trying to create a historical perspective on Clemson
and Alabama. Now, Sagrin USA today, well respected, he's got
(19:27):
his power ratings. There's no prisoner of the moment with
these computer algorithms. What does it say? Has Clemson this
year's Clemson team number seven in the last twenty one years?
And where is this year's Alabama team? It would be
number eight, just slightly below really, so Saguran's numbers back
up your I you both of you, guys, Physick and Brad,
(19:47):
you both believe the power or I'm sorry. These teams
played again, Clemson Alabama in a week ten days, the
game would be picked them and Saguran's pretty much saying
this same guy. Clemson by almost one point. But right there, Wow,
I just do you think the Rams are one of
the best, the best team of the decade? Now, fes,
(20:09):
I think I've got the Rams braided number three, tied
with four other teams right now this year. R j
al Right now, speaking of missteps mistakes, Listen, we're not
afraid to take our bows when we win, right, so
we've got to face facts when we don't Fez tell
us about your prop bet yesterday. Yes, so I had
(20:30):
the Clemson running back E t N under eighty three
rush yards. It all looked so good. Going into Clemson's
last drive, he had thirty rush yards. Clemson's up twenty eight.
I don't even think he's gonna play anymore upbeats out there.
That's fine, and they're running out the clock seven yards,
two yards. I'm gonna win this bet. And all of
(20:51):
a sudden, what's this? E t N breaks free on
his very last rush. He gained thirty eight yards to
put him at eighty six. I personally had under eighty
five and a half. I lost big after that run.
They high fived him and they took him out of
the game. Now O joking aside, have you looked at
the updated stats, because sometimes after the game they'll change
(21:13):
those numbers. They didn't. Did you look? Yes? All right,
so you would think, Okay, Fez loses one, Brad Powers,
how did you do? Depending on what line you got,
how did you do well? I gave out two a
ton of biolo of completions over twenty one and a half,
but I think a lot of people got twenty two,
twenty two and a half. Here's what happens to us breezing,
(21:36):
I mean alabam again, blown out. It's perfect for mine.
What is this gonna throw? He's gonna throw every down
and he gets there. He gets to twenty two. Some
most people, some people want, most people push, some people
even lost, and he gets taken out of the game
with twelve minutes. Okay, so it few twenty two. Who
was your by price on the show yesterday? Twenty one
and a half? Okay? I saw a lot of people
on Twitter talking people didn't and so what is your number?
(22:02):
My number? Yeah, one and a half? Alright, snuck in, Hey, kids, shop,
shop for your numbers. The only munster here is the
gambling munster that has enslaved your mother. I call him Gambler,
and it's time to snatch your mother from his cos
that's for thank you. Be sure to catch live editions
(22:27):
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
three pm Pacific. We it is a Tuesday tradition. Here
on Straight Out of Vegas, we get an early best
bet and line movement prediction from Steve Fezik on on
the year Steve Fezik with his picks ten two in
one predicting the line move nine one in three. So, Fez,
(22:47):
where are we at this week? Let me think about that,
Fez in front of the world. Your talent. It's like
a magician telling people the way line moves, telling people
what the bat on Tuesday. It's been great, but you
did lose your prop back at and it just goes
to show you, in this game we play, how important
it is to be. Let's just say persevere. I got
(23:07):
tiger scratches on my back from twenty years in this business.
Let me tell you something. If you want to survive,
you either got to fight the tiger. Well, you gotta
dance with the tiger. Alright, we're gonna We're gonna dance
with the Colts. Here with the Indie Colts plus five
and a half at Kansas City, two teams going in
(23:29):
opposite directions. The Colts since week six, we can easily
make the argument they have been the best team in
the NFL. There's certainly number one in terms of scoring
differential and Kansas City, frankly has not been the same
since that game against the Rams that they lost fifty
one fifty four one four. And let me ask you
a question about the rant or I'm sorry about the Chiefs.
How much of this is cream Hunt's absence? Oh? I
(23:50):
think it's big because the number two running back, Spencer
Where simply has not been a d percent. So they're
really been trotting out their number three running back and
Where may play this week, but he won't be. Okay,
So you're saying since Hunt's been out, where has been limited? Yes,
so it's not just dropping from one to two, it's
dropping from one to a hobble two. Correct? And is
that the driver you think? I mean, it's not like
(24:12):
Kansas City's defense is getting any worse. Andy read history,
and he read historically. It feels like his schemes have
been caught up to as seasons progressed. Do you think
there's some of that too? I think Tyreek Hill has
been hobbled and has been playing at eight five percent,
so that's hurting the offense as well. And frankly, the
defense for Kansas City has been bad all year long. Okay,
(24:34):
so right now, what's the line in the game? Right now?
Indianapolis Colts are plus five and a half. All right,
So let's be clear. Physic is saying, if you agree
with him and remember his Tuesday line move predictions right here,
straight out of Vegas Coast to coast. Ten winners, two losers,
one push. Now, that's amazing. That pick is the Colts.
(24:54):
Now your line moves saying, hey bet the Coats now,
don't wait the line moves. You've been right nine times,
wrong once three times. There hasn't been a line move,
which really, whenever you bet it didn't matter, so the
times it mattered. So if you do like the Colts
because physic likes it, because you like it, whatever, physics
(25:16):
picture affirm that even more. But on top of that,
he's telling you the number you can get now is
likely the best number you're gonna get, Colts plus the
points physic Megan. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
(25:36):
at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the I
Heart Radio app. Search f s R to listen live.
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