January 13, 2020 • 40 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas with RJ Bell and Jonas Knox, the guys recap the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs including Lamar Jackson crumbling under the pressure of the Titans, RJ hitting on his Over/Under bet of the decade between the Chiefs and Texans, the Packers winning the battle of the most overrated and the 49ers benefiting big time from their bye week. All that plus a preview of the National Championship between LSU and Clemson including why the line is an overreaction and Fezzik's best bet!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Don't listening to Fox Sports Rago. This is Straight out
of Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your host r
J Bow, collect the pregame show. America has always won
(00:30):
it from the Vegas trip. Ear's r J Bow You
heard it. I'm r J live from Las Vegas on
a big, big, big, big Monday, looking back and looking
(00:54):
ahead National Championship game. Will have multiple picks at least
one pick in one prop before the end of the hour,
joined in studio by the pros who know full house.
Brad Powers all the college knowledge will be leaning on
him for that championship game. Steve Zick, NFL expert, leaning
(01:14):
on him for the NFL recap. Sports bettors listen for
the money. Sports fans listen to no more than their buddies.
But you can't have pros without Joe's He's in l A,
He's Jones. It's not always good to be here, r J.
And on a Monday, here on straight out of Vegas,
when we've got a National Championship game coming up later on,
we've got a cheating scandal and are finally one step
(01:36):
away from knowing who will play in the Super Bowl.
What is the Vegas lead? The lead to me has
to be Vegas style. How the m v P prohibitively
priced right now to be the m v P. Lamar
Jackson fell so short in a game that they should
have won eight times out of ten based upon the odds. Yeah,
(01:58):
it was a stunner. On Saturday night, Lamar Jackson and
the number one seeded Ravens fall to the Tennessee Titans,
another road win for Tennessee twelve in Baltimore. If as
number one takeaway, like, what do we learn from this game?
Turnovers are so critical? R J? Baltimore was minus three
in turnovers. Now we know if we look at our database,
(02:20):
if your minus three, you only win the game ten
percent of the time. But I'm gonna make the case
r J, that the turnovers weren't minus three. I'm wanna
make the case it was minus seven because Baltimore went
oh for four on fourth down conversions. Okay, so hold
on a second. What do we assume is going to
be the conversion rate on fourth down? Well, Baltimore was seven.
(02:40):
Was number one in the NFL at seventy two percent
for for fourth down conversion, So historically, over the course
of this year, they would have converted three out of four. Okay, well, no,
seventy two is I mean, I know it's gonna make
your point if we skew it that way, but let's
just try to stay with the facts here, and we
would a grief. Anytime someone's number one, the team's number one,
we're gonna assume they've had some luck involved, right, yes,
(03:02):
and there, hold on, hold on, hold on, I know
you've got your speed. You want me to sit back
or do you want to talk? Go ahead? Thank you,
Thank you so much. Stevezi got mar J Bell, the
host and executive producer of the show. Steve Fezick is
a rotating seat to my right. You're here today, right tomorrow,
(03:23):
you're off, all right. So here's my question. If it's
sevent through the season and their number one in the league,
we would assume that if we if I were going
to bet you next year, in fact, you have a
chance to put your money where your mouth is, I'll
bet you that the fourth down conversions for the Ravens
are under seventy next year. Let's say we'll do a dime.
(03:47):
Thank you. Why not you were just saying seventy five
three out of four, Well, Baltimore is probably not gonna
be as good next So why would we assume they
would be good in the next game against better competition?
All right, Tennessee has a better defense and an average team, right, yes, okay,
so let's call it two out of three. And I'm
probably being nice to you a great I agree, But no,
(04:08):
hold on, you want to get to your point. Why
don't we see what your point is? Well, they failed
twice on fourth and one r J. And then I
get it. I know that that Nick Wright said, oh
they were over or seven to no in that spot.
I we can regurgitate that stuffs were blue. But what
does seven and no mean? I mean, yeah, you're supposed
to convert fourth in ones more than half the time.
(04:30):
I got it. So they probably should have not failed
in either of those. But where where were they on
the field? So the end of the first half they
were driving, and then they started a third quarter and
they were driving in the red zone. Okay, So where
were they on the field Approximately the twenty yard line
of the Titans. Okay, so you can say, effectively, if
(04:50):
they were have kicked the field goal, we can assume
a field goal is almost certain and from that range,
especially with Tucker. So they gave up six points it
sound like in the two spots, meaning if they had
kicked the field goal both times, they would have given
the ball back to the Titans. Titans would probably got
the ball after the after the kickoff and about the
same range of the conversion happened where they didn't convert
(05:13):
the fourth right, So really plus six Baltimore would have benefited. Yes,
So how much would they have lost by? They would
have lost by ten. Okay, so now what, Well, there's
the other three turnovers and the other two failed fourth
down conversed. Okay, what were those at? What point of
the game was it? The other two failures were in
the fourth quarter. They're both fourth and five, and we're
(05:35):
at again driving but not in the red zone yet. Okay, So,
and those are fifty fifty kind of shots, right, so
they should have made one of those. And if they
had even made that one and then scored a touchdown,
they would have still lost. So if everything you say
would have pretty much fallen the Ravens way reasonably, not
(05:55):
in a perfect world, they still would have lost the game, right,
meaning if not that, if they would have converted every
fourth down and scored a touchdown on it. But if
we would have converted out and say, let's say they
didn't take such a big chance and kicked field goals instead,
Let's say they make one out of two of the
fourth downs, which is all you can hope for, they
still lose. So that seems to be the story to me,
(06:19):
right if we were trying to explain how did they
lose by sixteen points? I think you're analysis is quite good,
but we're trying to figure out how they got to
the point it was even a close game. Do you
have any thoughts on that, because that, to me is
the story. Yeah, that defense that had been playing so
well for Baltimore, Derrick Henry, we worried about him being
(06:39):
a little banged up after thirty plus curious he ran,
He ran all over Baltimore, No, no doubt about that.
We can get the box score out and see that one. Jonas,
what's your take. I think that Baltimore got behind in
the game, and they hadn't had a lot of experience
playing from behind in games, and I think they just
were a little shell shot sucked and Tennessee was relentless
(07:01):
and Tannehill did just enough to keep him off off
guard to where he went deep with the football through
a touchdown pass. There a trick play with Derrick Henry
at the goal line. It just seemed like they couldn't
gather what Tennessee was trying to do all night long.
I think the idea that Baltimore has benefited from the
(07:23):
lead is probably to me, the takeaway is we did
uh actually looked at football outsiders last week and they
have a stat what is the average score when the
other team, the opponent takes possession. All right, so beginning
the game, you kick it off to him. What's the
score margin? Zero? Right? You up by thirty you kick
(07:44):
it off. So what's the average throughout the season. And
Baltimore had the best average where the opponent was down
by nine points on average. Patriots were second at seven
points and then down from there. If you're owned by
over a score on average against the defense, that lends
(08:06):
itself to playing particularly well when I had Why would
that Baltimore defense do that is because they blitz a lot.
They have a variety of blitzes, and if you know
the opponent's gonna throw man, those blitzes can be effective.
I think the whole offseason fed or not the whole
(08:26):
off season, but the whole second half of this season,
we've been thinking, Man, the Ravens d it's one of
the top five, and it's because of Jimmy Smith. And
it's because of Peters. Oh he's good, except the genius,
the boy genius supposedly Will Calm traded him for what
a fourth round pick? Fifth round pick? How great is he?
(08:49):
I don't know. Maybe it was a mindset thing with
the Rams. I don't know, but I know Jimmy smithsman
in the league for quite a while, number one pick.
Never really heard a lot about him, you know, as
a Steelers fan, I knew about him. I know about him.
I never thought, you know what, the Steelers need have
had Jimmy Smith, that would all be better. And it
(09:10):
just seems strange to me that that was the conversation
for so long about how good Jimmy Smith was. Is
he better than his backup? Yeah? But to me it
feels like that this was more of a story. In hindsight,
now we have the benefit that the Ravens had such
a big lead in these games on average, and they
(09:34):
felt like when they had that lead, they were so unstoppable,
that the opponents were desperate, and that desperation, that frantic nous,
lad the inefficiency. It led to a compounding of mistakes
pick six of strip sacks and when it was a
tight game or in this case, they were playing from
behind and Tynesse benefited from being able to be defensively.
(09:58):
Uh keyed in Lamar having to throw, and Colin made
a great point on that today Lamar is not the
best quarterback one behind. We know that, right, So it
strikes me this is more about that we didn't see
clearly that the Ravens only play this whow or at
least as well as they did throughout the year, from
(10:21):
the lead, where as a really good team and maybe
that's Kansas City and we'll talk about that, but a
really good team can play from the lead and from behind.
Does that does that resonate big time? And you predicted
that last week on our podcast r J you talked about, Wow,
You're like Baltimore that that defense. I'm not going to
put them in the top five FeAs I'm paraphrasing, of course,
(10:43):
because they're they're they're great when they have the lead,
but we haven't seen them hit in the mouth. We
haven't seen them behind. How are they going to respond?
And obviously you were very imprescient because they did not
respond well at all, and it didn't look like they
wanted any part of two under fifty pound Derrick Henry
punching them in the mouth. I appreciate you saying that.
I'm j bow straight out of Vegas at Steve Fezig
the I'm always suspicious when I hear the same answer
(11:07):
again and again and again to a big question. And
we've been saying that same thing about Jimmy Smith and
about Peters, and it just started feeling wrong to me.
And I'm not even sure I was right. I just
know that it just seems strange at defense got so
good so fast with some modest changes. And also, if anything,
they're there. The front seven wasn't their strong suit and
(11:30):
Tennessee was a type of team that could exploit that. Brad,
what was your final takeaways? Well? I found this to
be quite surprising. The Titans out gained by two hundred
and thirty yards. We've been having this discussion, you know what,
what do yards really matter? Because it didn't seem so
much that the Cowboys, but yet Baltimore was really good
coming into this game in yards number one, number one
(11:52):
margin in the game, and yet Baltimore looked really good
out gained Tennessee by two hundred and thirty yards. It's
the biggest yards differential for a losing team in the
history of the NFL playoffs. So no team ever has
been out gamed by this much and still won the
game r J and the history of the playoffs. So
does that strike you as it was kind of flukey does?
(12:13):
That's the thing? It didn't feel the Titans, clearly we're
the better team. I can understand a lot of the
yards because Tennessee jumped on him early, and we see
that all the time. When a team jumps out to
the big lead early, usually the team from behind is
going to be throwing more and the yards will be
in their favor. Yeah, So I think that here's what
we can say about yardage in any given game, especially
(12:37):
if one team is out to a big lead. It
can be deceiving over the course of eight or ten
games and then onward. I think the net yardage is uh,
very very taling and it could be the certain team
has three or four situations where they're gonna make up
(12:57):
yardage in a given spot. I mean, there's always the
chance of aberration, but I think net and net in
any given game, yardists can be deceiving. Over the course
of an extended period of games or time or succession
of games, it's hard for the yard Is July all
that much? Would you agree with that? All right? So
(13:18):
what we'll have to talk about? Uh? Oh, final word?
Just I just I've been looking at you know, getting
hit in the mouth for the first time for the Ravens.
Their last loss before this game was September nine, so
they went three and a half months of not dealing
with any real adversity as far as having to rebound
from a loss. And so and I know we're going
(13:39):
to talk about the Chiefs game as well too. When
I was watching the Chiefs game, when they got behind
in that game, I I felt like, Oh, they've still
got an opportunity here. This this game doesn't feel over.
I didn't get that with the Ravens. They looked like rattled,
they looked shocked at the situation they were in, and
they looked really unfamiliar to the feeling of being down,
especially at home. I had a big time game, and
(14:01):
we'll have a ton of time in the off season
to discuss this. But what does this really say about Lamar?
Because if he is an elite quarterback with the lead
but problematic without how good is he that net? Certainly
above average, certainly top quarter of the league. But could
(14:21):
he even be in the discussion for top five if
he is historically, let's say we find out that long
term might be the way to say he struggles so
much from behind. The very fact that Baltimore seemed frazzled,
they seemed troubled so much by being behind, was that
them telling us, we know we're in a bad spot here, right.
(14:44):
It can be a cause or an effect, right, but
it feels like, if anything, then falling behind and then
freaking out so much, it was like, Wow, what what
did they understand that we didn't about this team? Which
brings up a final point. You can beat these games
(15:06):
in a way that you have most of your exposure
in the spot you like best. I believe if you
liked Tennessee in this game, and I said it last week,
you got to play him on the money line because
Tennessee isn't the type of team that's gonna be down
seventeen and you're so anxious for them to come back
door for you. But if it's a tight game late,
(15:30):
they have a good chance as any to win cause
of Henry, because of the way they play. So it
strikes and it strikes me. To the Ravens get a
nice lead, they're going to be very very comfortable. Ravens
fall behind, they could be in trouble. You could have
zeroed in on that by Titans on the money line.
Last word final, I agree, and I think Jackson panicked.
(15:50):
If you look at the A eight plays for Baltimore
seventy nine eight eight, Jackson either ran the ball or
threw the ball. He stopped handing it off to Edward.
Do you think he's calling of plays? Well, he's got
the options, but how do we know what I mean?
What I'm saying is is if we if he had
gone the other way and didn't carry the main load,
we would have said, wait, he's supposed to be the
(16:12):
m v P and he's not taking the load. He
doesn't want this, he's not ready for prime time. I
I don't want to micro analyze the read you know,
the read option on a per play basis, But if
if an m v P wants to take the ball more.
I think that's probably It's like Kobe missing a lot
(16:32):
of shots when he was young in tight spots. It
led to Kobe being Kobe later. I don't think that's
that to me? Isn't the problem when we come back?
Will break down that Kansas City game? What were the
odds when Kansas City was down twenty four nothing? A
lot of people said, Oh I knew, I knew they
were gonna come back. How much would you make if
(16:55):
you would bet them to come back? That's coming up
next to He's r J. Bel I'm Jonas Knox. Is
the pregame you've always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. I'm
(17:15):
r J. Bell, we are Straight out of Vegas and
I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of you the Fan. Coming up
here in just a couple of moments. How rich you
actually could have gotten had you seen into the future.
On Sunday, this might be one of the most jam
packed hours in sports radio this year. I think it's
fair to say great day to join this. You can
listen five days a week on hundreds of FSR stations,
(17:38):
also Fox Sports Radio dot Com, also I Heart Radio app,
also Sirius x M and Anytime podcast. Just search for
r J Bell right now on the strip fifty four degrees.
The neon is pumping. So r J was a wild
one in Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs, trailing by
twenty four to nothing at one point, end up winning
(18:02):
the game outright, a twenty point winner. Fifty one thirty
one was the final, which was well over the over
under and it was your bet of the decade. You're
over under bet of the decade, and it was another
winner for r J Bell on a Monday. You know something,
I didn't really want to talk about this, but now
(18:23):
that you've brought it up, Jonas, I mean, what am
I gonna do? I mean, I didn't mean to make
you blush, just you know, given the facts, a lot
of people estimate that millions were one on it, and
if you think about it, it's probably true, right because
we have hundreds of thousands of listeners. Let's say one
out of ten took me up on it. The other nine,
(18:46):
you'd say, are foolish, but okay, so one let's call it, uh,
let's just say twenty thousand. If they bet how much each,
al right, five dollars would be a hundred thousand, So
even if the average bet was fifty dollars, it was
a million bucks that I gave the world. I took
(19:08):
from the bookies. I reached in the bookies pocket, yanked
it out and spread it around like Robin Hood. But
I didn't want to talk about it. Thank you, though
you had the best interests at home. Now. A lot
of people would say, r J. You should especially be
excited because you cover. It went over in the first half.
(19:29):
It literally took half the game, and I'm like, yeah,
you're right, but I don't want to talk about Then
others would say, well, wait a minute, the tea the
one team went over, and I'd be true, but again,
please enough gut fast and southern on this and the
highest scoring first half. Get this in NFL postseason history
(19:51):
matches your decade of the year over. But again, we're
only as good as their last win. So what I
would say is thank you and actually all joke in aside,
the feedback was wonderful on it, and as I say,
we've been red hot. I've been read hot on these
like super duper plays. It's not like this usually you try.
(20:15):
I mean, if you can win six out of ten
of your super dupers, you're lucky. That's not really a
technical term super duper. But I don't know if it's
because I feel I do think about that. There might
be a million dollars or some variation on this. So
I try to be super judicious about it, and we'll
try to keep it up. But don't let a couple
(20:36):
of wins make it seem like they're short things they're not,
because it kind of seemed like it, but it's not. Alright, Fas,
what's your takeaway on the game itself? I thought, by
the way we did tease it, let's talk about it.
What were the end game on? Yeah, so when Kansas
City trailed twenty four nothing, Kansas City was a three
to one underdog to win the game. It's so funny. Listen.
(20:57):
I love calling cowherd. I mean, we do have a
segment on this show called Colin Cowhard is crazy. So
we're not afraid to be critical. The way Colin was
acting like, well, yeah, we yeah, twenty four nothing. They
were at home, No nothing to concern ourselves with. Come on,
all right, there's no way that, no way that you
(21:20):
could not be concerned if you're in Kansas City, batter,
especially if you're laying on I wonder what I mean,
that's interesting. What would the a ten point tease? If
you think about it from just to pick them, I mean,
do we say like five to one, six to one?
Did they cover? I think eight to one? I mean
(21:41):
it was eight to one on the cover? Oh my gosh,
So what did we say? Misleading final? I can make
the case Kansas City should have won by more r
J Specifically, how did they get so far behind? And
I know we hate to like go ahead and cherry
pick these weird place but go ahead for crazy special
teams points blocked punt touchdown and then essentially a dropped
(22:05):
punt touchdown. Casey gifted Houston fourteen points. And remember now
is it's now eight? No is when the opponent has
been out gained on the season, and again talking about
how yardage matters and outscored on the season, and Houston
had been both when they reached the division round this
(22:25):
century it had been seven prior times. Now it's eight
that they lose the game, they do not make the
conference final. No team, and again this year, no team
that's been outscored and outyarded on the season. Stats matter
over the long term, and I think we saw it
(22:45):
took it went about as well as it could have
a Houston, I think it's fair to say, and they
still got dominated in the game. Jonas, what was your
main takeaway? Um, I felt better about Kansas City trailing
that I did Baltimore trailing. It's the one of the
more one of the weirdest games I've ever seen, and
I was exhausted afterwards, and it felt like there were
(23:08):
two or three different games inside one game. But I wonder,
and I asked Fez this before the show. Had Houston
scored a touchdown, went up twenty one to nothing, had
they gone for it and actually scored a touchdown instead
of settling for the field goal, how much would the
in game odds have changed with them up twenty eight
nothing as opposed to the just the twenty four nothing. Yeah,
(23:29):
you know something, my gut feeling about the game odds,
as you can tell me if you generally agree, is it. Yeah,
it would have made a difference, but not that drastic,
not that drastic four to one instead of three to one.
And I just think it's hard. I know O'Brien is
a punching bag in general, but the two decisions people
(23:51):
are questioning. One he was too conservative and one he
was too aggressive. So it's kind of hard to say
I've only just flipped those would have been good. You know,
it just feels like one of those things he was
going to get to heat, you know, the negativity regardless,
and it's it's also the idea that well, that was
the crucial moment when the momentum of the game turned. Look, man,
(24:12):
you're up twenty four to nothing, all right, if you
want to say that caused one touchdown, that's fine. What
about the other forty four points? You know, like you
could say it's great coaching that they had the lead
at all, because, as Pezic said, and he was at
the national forefront of this and in less than twenty minutes,
where we're talking about what Brad was at the forefront
(24:32):
of is Clemson and how good they are And literally
this was six eight weeks ago. No one was talking
about he was fez And I remember on the Herd,
I do a pod with calling every Friday during the
football season, We'll do on this Friday. And I always
tweeted out at our Jane, Vegas, and he had Kansas
City out of his top ten. It wasn't that long ago.
(24:55):
And Fezis theory was this team was four. No, everyone
thought they were the second best team in the league.
In the interim, the defense got a lot better. My
Homes got hurt, was hobbled, but when he got healthy,
he looked as good as ever. And then he returned Hill.
And if you add Hill worth a point, if you
assume my Homes as good as he was when he
(25:16):
was uninjured early, which he is, and you look at
the defense trend line, you could make the case that
Kansas City was the best team. And Fez, you said
it on Friday, right here and straight out of Vegas.
You said that in the last five years, other than
the Ravens, Kansas City is the best team in the
(25:37):
NFL over the last five years. This Kansas City team
would have been ranked second if we had a five
year ranking correct, which speaks to how good this Kansas
City team is. So I think some of this was
Houston just wasn't supposed to be in the divisional round.
And some of it is Kansas City not only has
my homes in a great offense, but a pretty good defense.
(26:00):
We had him about eight defense. Faz anything about this game?
Final word that changed your mind on that one? Nothing
on the defense, on the offense. I do want to say,
this is an opportunity where we get to see Mahomes
with the brightest lights upon him and a really adversarial situation.
Just respond. I want to say it's Avasarah when you're
(26:20):
at home. Let's say a different situation. Well, I love
the way he called out as an offensive liney. He
addressed his team and he just started screaming at his players.
Not screaming, but just he was so intent on, Hey,
we're gonna get this back. We've got to make you think.
He was saying it very calm, that boardroom voice. He
was engaged. Engaged. That's what I am sometimes, and I
got the word for it. Now, all right, let's do this.
(26:45):
Let's look at one. We'll look at one more game
real quick. Yeah, let's look at the next game, all right, guys,
So let's get to this next game. And it was
the finale of the divisional weekend. It was the green
Bay Packers onto the NFC title game, green Bay a
three win of the Seattle Seahawks. Best back, green Bay,
I agreed with you. You were right rock solid that said.
(27:07):
It could have went either way at most games. Can
main take away? Main takeaway is that green Bay benefited
from Seattle hurting it running back. So we saw Lynch
get two yards per carry. We barely saw home or
get any carries. And bottom line is green Bay's biggest
weakness on defense. You can run on them and Seattle
could not take advantage of that. Okay, but that was
your handicap before the game. You're saying it went that
(27:29):
way and still we barely covered. So does that cause
you do you downgrade green Bay off this game? You
know I did not downgrade green definitely was not gonna upgrade.
It's either going to keep them the same or downgrade,
meaning that after the game, as you were contemplaying, Yes,
so this is something Vegas does that no one else does.
(27:49):
We would say this team just one. Everyone's talking and
taking their bows. They're like anyone that like green Bay.
Now I'm not gonna talk about the people like Seattle.
I'm gonna talk about Seattle. Was overrated, because let's be candid,
and I'm being sincere here. If Seattle had the running backs,
this could have been a different easily would have been
a different game. And I still would be sitting here
(28:11):
today saying Seattle is overrated if they had one, even
if they were healthy with their running backs, I would
say it, just like I want to say right now,
green Bay is overrated. What's the early line, san Fran,
green Bay fat? It's seven to seven and a half.
So what we're saying here is the line Minnesota had
(28:33):
played road Road, which is challenging Cousins out of his
one o'clock comfort zone line with seven, this line is
slightly higher. That means that Minnesota, the market considers even
before green even after green Bay. After green Bay has
the benefit of winning this game, Minnesota last week was
(28:57):
considered to be better than green Bay is right now,
even after winning this game. Yes, great point to me.
I still think they're overrated. I think green Bay has
is the second most overrated team in all football this year,
and I think Seattle was number one. Someone had to
win this game, and what I expect is going to
(29:17):
be I expect domination with San Fran. Though the question becomes,
is that defense what we thought it was? It looked
like it was on the scoreboard. Be sure to catch
live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six
pm Eastern three pm Pacific. Trade Out of Vegas here
on Fox Sports Radio. Coming up ten minutes from now
(29:38):
here on fs ARE, we will have a best bet,
your chance to make a little bit of coin on
a Monday. And I want to let you know we
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zone auto Zone. I'm Jonas Knocks, Voice of You the Fan.
He's the Voice of Vegas. R J Bell. All right, Jonas,
let's look at the fourth game forty nine. It was
the forty Niners all over the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday
in the Bay Area. Twenty seven to ten was the
final to me. Entering the game, the question was this,
how good was the forty Niners defense? With many of
(30:21):
their injured players. Alexander likely back, others not so sure.
They all played right, Yeah, d Ford played also, and
how good was that? D Because it's easy to say,
just like we were, uh, skeptical of the Ravens being oh,
just because the Ravens got back Jimmy Smith, they were
(30:42):
so good. No, no, no, I was skeptical of that.
I still am more so now I was skeptical that
that's all it was. With the forty niners. We got
one game of data that says maybe it was a
lot of the injuries. Yeah, I want to talk though
about the bye week. San Francisco had a night in
an No. No, what I want to talk about is
(31:03):
how do you believe the bye week is what was
the big driver on the defense? Yes, so you're saying
more so than the injuries. Yes, because k if Alexander
was out and Brown was out or for what I'm
sorry I was out, but they were rested, you would
have thought, all this team is just as good, not
(31:23):
as good, all right, but but but the rest was
more than the players coming. And the reason I say
that is Alexander on the statue did nothing in this game,
didn't have any tackles. So it was shocking how little
he showed up in the box many but how many
snaps did he play? A big chunk of it he
did play, and the team did say, gave him a
tremendous emotional boost. Oh my gosh, that sounds like like
(31:45):
Lucas on the All right, so do you try? Are
you able to just look at tackles and interceptions or
whatever and say that's really telling about how important the
defensive players. I can, I cannot, but a middle linebacker
should fill up the statue. Okay, so you're saying it's
easy now to say there's another example where it's the
default on the talking head shows are gonna say, uh oh,
(32:10):
look Brown's back. In fact, I think I heard that
a few times today. You're saying, nah, could help next week,
could help in the future. But this was more about
the forty Niners finally got to buy exactly right. Because
the forty Niners did. They had a bye week four.
Every other playoff team had their byas week eight or later.
In that defense, really the eye tests that they're looking tired,
they're looking worned down, and having that full week off
(32:32):
here in the bye week I think was critical. That
defense was flying everywhere on in this game. On Saturday,
Brad Powers, let me ask you, do you remember Fast
talking about now last week on Friday? It was kind
of like one of those Eureka moments. He was reading
and reading and reading. He uncovered something came in. Friday
was one of the highlights of the show. Talked about
(32:55):
the forty Niners had been uh twelve thirteen weeks since
they had a I. He thought that Bide was going
to do them good. He was right at scene. But
before that Friday, had you heard him talk about the
fourt of fatigue at all. It's interesting about the injury
eye test. It wasn't quite the eye test. Who was it?
(33:16):
It was not Old Fast. You gotta love him though,
I mean, he keeps trying. I'm in third grade, Andy,
and I know not to lie, but you should just
tell the truth. Fest just say you know something. I
didn't even realize it was a fatigue, but then I
did because no one else has. So they're not gonna
(33:39):
get tired again in one game. So you're saying, boy,
that BEF. I not that I wish injury upon the players,
but I don't know wish Alexander to you know, get
a little hobble during practice, and everyone's gonna be like,
oh my god, the players are gone again. It's gonna
be that twenty nine rank D or rank D. But
lo and behold, you're gonna say, no, no, no, they're
(34:01):
not fatigued, and that's the key. Yes, all right, we'll
have a chance to dig in this week because I'm
gonna I don't I'm not enough of an X as
a nose guy to really know how much you can
just look at the stat I mean, could it be
a situation that they run away from him? They try
to stay away from so much. It's almost like a
(34:21):
shutdown corner, right, I know, with a like a Dion
type shutdown corner that they might not even have any
past deflections or whatever, but they can shut down that whole,
you know, Rivas Island style. But a middle linebacker, it
seems like it could be hard to do that. But
maybe they're they're playing out on the edges and the fringes.
I don't know you have any thoughts, Briant, No, but
(34:43):
I'll be intriguing to see what we're fees stands after
this week's game. It seems like he overreacts sometimes, intriguing
to see how where he stands after I I bat
him a little bit on it. Right, We just don't
have time today and it costs me money. You know why,
because the National Championship game is tonight and we have
the guy with all the college knowledge with a bit
(35:04):
is it a big pig bread? It isn't now because
today we have a line he's saying, not a big
pick um. But you know something, Fez is going to
throw in a prop just to make up make up
for that's coming up next to He's r J. Bell.
I'm Jonas Knox. This is the pregame show you've always wanted,
and it's money making time next year on Fox Sports Radio.
(35:25):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell.
We are straight out of and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice
of You the Fan. Kicking off in a little over
an hour from now on ESPN and in New Orleans.
(35:47):
It is the National Championship Number one l s U,
number three Clemson, and right now on pregame dot Com.
L s U a four and a half point favorite.
It was up to six not that long ago, Brad,
you were right here on the radio straight out of
Vegas saying, oh, man, six is so much value. Now
you've been redeemed, that's a if it wins or loses,
(36:11):
you can feel good the market ultimately agreed with you.
But given the givens right now, what do you do
in this game? I still like it. I still think
it's worth a bet, just not obviously as as big
as bet as what it would have been at six.
So Clemson plus four and a half is still a like,
it's still worth a bet here, r J. And here's
what I see. It's still a overreaction to what we
(36:33):
saw last that being the semifinals. So there's this thing
in Vegas called a look aheadline where you can bet
on a future matchup prior to the actually games being played.
So prior to the semifinals, this line, this theoretical Clemson l.
S U game, The line was picked them. And you're
telling me, after just one game for each team that
the line would be sitting here at four and a half.
(36:54):
It seems like an overreaction to me, RJ. Seems like
it or you know it is it is? Is there
anything you can just say straight? Can you say that?
Just say it full throated. This was a crazy irrational overreaction.
This was a crazy irrational overreaction to just one game.
How much? What do you think the line should be?
(37:15):
I think the line should be L s U minus three.
So you're saying a three point adjustment would have been okay,
and even that significant this time of year, at this
point in the season. But you think justified justified? Why
because L s U scheme wise, has been much better defensively,
an awesome personnel wise getting better, and they get a
key player, one of their best players on defense is
(37:37):
back for this game. He's been out since prior to
the Alabama game. That's Brad Powers. He has all the
college knowledge. If you would listen every day, you'd have
Clemson plus six. If you're listening just today because you're thinking, oh, well, Cherry, pick,
hit and run, just get the picks on the big days. Okay, fine,
but you're only plus four and a half fas you've
(37:58):
got the best bat on a prop I like this, Yeah,
I'm gonna bet more points scored in the second half
versus the first half r J and Frankly, this is
a bet we often make in the Super Bowl as well,
and these huge games, teams are oftenly very conservative early.
You don't see a lot of scoring early, But what's
gonna magnify? I believe that concept sixteen day layover, so
(38:20):
rust for both teams has been forever since they played
a game. So I expect the game to start slow,
thus lower scoring in the first half. So I'm betting
second half more points minus one forty versus first half points. Now,
how widely available is this kind of bat? I've seen
it in many of my books. What percentage you have
twenty nine ounce? Okay, I mean when he says, Maddie,
(38:42):
it could be like where you got Well, if it
goes to overtime, does that still count as a second
half bet? Or will they kind of nitpick on that
and say no, No, it's got to be the final
thirty minutes of regulation. Overtime counts the second half, and
that's part of the where there's extra big on it.
You gotta lay the one forty kind of like Brad's
be bad, be also bad and it was bad on Baltimore.
(39:06):
Funny of Kansas City lost too, So I like Clemson
plus six a lot plus four and a half less so,
but still like I really like feasts. And here's why.
I think we've seen it again and again. Just go
back to when the Patriots came back against the Falcons.
(39:27):
It was so unusual. It was like, oh my gosh,
you're you're never gonna forget that. You saw this. Now
we got people saying, oh, down twenty four, nothing, no
big deal. How absurd that is. It's absurd. But still
these teams won't give up. If Alice you gets up big,
Clemson won't give up, vice versa. They won't give up.
(39:48):
And I think because of that, there's always ad And
we've seen in these Alabama games in the National Championships
against Clemson, where at the end of the game it's touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.
You just don't see that urgency, the risk taking earlier
in the game. That's why I like second half scoring
minus one forty. Also, I like clembs. If you missed
any of today's show, including best Bets on that National
(40:10):
Championship game, go to Fox Sports radio dot com for
the podcast. We're back tomorrow right here on Fox Sports
Radio
Don't listening to Fox Sports Rago. This is Straight out
of Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your host r
J Bow, collect the pregame show. America has always won
(00:30):
it from the Vegas trip. Ear's r J Bow You
heard it. I'm r J live from Las Vegas on
a big, big, big, big Monday, looking back and looking
(00:54):
ahead National Championship game. Will have multiple picks at least
one pick in one prop before the end of the hour,
joined in studio by the pros who know full house.
Brad Powers all the college knowledge will be leaning on
him for that championship game. Steve Zick, NFL expert, leaning
(01:14):
on him for the NFL recap. Sports bettors listen for
the money. Sports fans listen to no more than their buddies.
But you can't have pros without Joe's He's in l A,
He's Jones. It's not always good to be here, r J.
And on a Monday, here on straight out of Vegas,
when we've got a National Championship game coming up later on,
we've got a cheating scandal and are finally one step
(01:36):
away from knowing who will play in the Super Bowl.
What is the Vegas lead? The lead to me has
to be Vegas style. How the m v P prohibitively
priced right now to be the m v P. Lamar
Jackson fell so short in a game that they should
have won eight times out of ten based upon the odds. Yeah,
(01:58):
it was a stunner. On Saturday night, Lamar Jackson and
the number one seeded Ravens fall to the Tennessee Titans,
another road win for Tennessee twelve in Baltimore. If as
number one takeaway, like, what do we learn from this game?
Turnovers are so critical? R J? Baltimore was minus three
in turnovers. Now we know if we look at our database,
(02:20):
if your minus three, you only win the game ten
percent of the time. But I'm gonna make the case
r J, that the turnovers weren't minus three. I'm wanna
make the case it was minus seven because Baltimore went
oh for four on fourth down conversions. Okay, so hold
on a second. What do we assume is going to
be the conversion rate on fourth down? Well, Baltimore was seven.
(02:40):
Was number one in the NFL at seventy two percent
for for fourth down conversion, So historically, over the course
of this year, they would have converted three out of four. Okay, well, no,
seventy two is I mean, I know it's gonna make
your point if we skew it that way, but let's
just try to stay with the facts here, and we
would a grief. Anytime someone's number one, the team's number one,
we're gonna assume they've had some luck involved, right, yes,
(03:02):
and there, hold on, hold on, hold on, I know
you've got your speed. You want me to sit back
or do you want to talk? Go ahead? Thank you,
Thank you so much. Stevezi got mar J Bell, the
host and executive producer of the show. Steve Fezick is
a rotating seat to my right. You're here today, right tomorrow,
(03:23):
you're off, all right. So here's my question. If it's
sevent through the season and their number one in the league,
we would assume that if we if I were going
to bet you next year, in fact, you have a
chance to put your money where your mouth is, I'll
bet you that the fourth down conversions for the Ravens
are under seventy next year. Let's say we'll do a dime.
(03:47):
Thank you. Why not you were just saying seventy five
three out of four, Well, Baltimore is probably not gonna
be as good next So why would we assume they
would be good in the next game against better competition?
All right, Tennessee has a better defense and an average team, right, yes, okay,
so let's call it two out of three. And I'm
probably being nice to you a great I agree, But no,
(04:08):
hold on, you want to get to your point. Why
don't we see what your point is? Well, they failed
twice on fourth and one r J. And then I
get it. I know that that Nick Wright said, oh
they were over or seven to no in that spot.
I we can regurgitate that stuffs were blue. But what
does seven and no mean? I mean, yeah, you're supposed
to convert fourth in ones more than half the time.
(04:30):
I got it. So they probably should have not failed
in either of those. But where where were they on
the field? So the end of the first half they
were driving, and then they started a third quarter and
they were driving in the red zone. Okay, So where
were they on the field Approximately the twenty yard line
of the Titans. Okay, so you can say, effectively, if
(04:50):
they were have kicked the field goal, we can assume
a field goal is almost certain and from that range,
especially with Tucker. So they gave up six points it
sound like in the two spots, meaning if they had
kicked the field goal both times, they would have given
the ball back to the Titans. Titans would probably got
the ball after the after the kickoff and about the
same range of the conversion happened where they didn't convert
(05:13):
the fourth right, So really plus six Baltimore would have benefited. Yes,
So how much would they have lost by? They would
have lost by ten. Okay, so now what, Well, there's
the other three turnovers and the other two failed fourth
down conversed. Okay, what were those at? What point of
the game was it? The other two failures were in
the fourth quarter. They're both fourth and five, and we're
(05:35):
at again driving but not in the red zone yet. Okay, So,
and those are fifty fifty kind of shots, right, so
they should have made one of those. And if they
had even made that one and then scored a touchdown,
they would have still lost. So if everything you say
would have pretty much fallen the Ravens way reasonably, not
(05:55):
in a perfect world, they still would have lost the game, right,
meaning if not that, if they would have converted every
fourth down and scored a touchdown on it. But if
we would have converted out and say, let's say they
didn't take such a big chance and kicked field goals instead,
Let's say they make one out of two of the
fourth downs, which is all you can hope for, they
still lose. So that seems to be the story to me,
(06:19):
right if we were trying to explain how did they
lose by sixteen points? I think you're analysis is quite good,
but we're trying to figure out how they got to
the point it was even a close game. Do you
have any thoughts on that, because that, to me is
the story. Yeah, that defense that had been playing so
well for Baltimore, Derrick Henry, we worried about him being
(06:39):
a little banged up after thirty plus curious he ran,
He ran all over Baltimore, No, no doubt about that.
We can get the box score out and see that one. Jonas,
what's your take. I think that Baltimore got behind in
the game, and they hadn't had a lot of experience
playing from behind in games, and I think they just
were a little shell shot sucked and Tennessee was relentless
(07:01):
and Tannehill did just enough to keep him off off
guard to where he went deep with the football through
a touchdown pass. There a trick play with Derrick Henry
at the goal line. It just seemed like they couldn't
gather what Tennessee was trying to do all night long.
I think the idea that Baltimore has benefited from the
(07:23):
lead is probably to me, the takeaway is we did
uh actually looked at football outsiders last week and they
have a stat what is the average score when the
other team, the opponent takes possession. All right, so beginning
the game, you kick it off to him. What's the
score margin? Zero? Right? You up by thirty you kick
(07:44):
it off. So what's the average throughout the season. And
Baltimore had the best average where the opponent was down
by nine points on average. Patriots were second at seven
points and then down from there. If you're owned by
over a score on average against the defense, that lends
(08:06):
itself to playing particularly well when I had Why would
that Baltimore defense do that is because they blitz a lot.
They have a variety of blitzes, and if you know
the opponent's gonna throw man, those blitzes can be effective.
I think the whole offseason fed or not the whole
(08:26):
off season, but the whole second half of this season,
we've been thinking, Man, the Ravens d it's one of
the top five, and it's because of Jimmy Smith. And
it's because of Peters. Oh he's good, except the genius,
the boy genius supposedly Will Calm traded him for what
a fourth round pick? Fifth round pick? How great is he?
(08:49):
I don't know. Maybe it was a mindset thing with
the Rams. I don't know, but I know Jimmy smithsman
in the league for quite a while, number one pick.
Never really heard a lot about him, you know, as
a Steelers fan, I knew about him. I know about him.
I never thought, you know what, the Steelers need have
had Jimmy Smith, that would all be better. And it
(09:10):
just seems strange to me that that was the conversation
for so long about how good Jimmy Smith was. Is
he better than his backup? Yeah? But to me it
feels like that this was more of a story. In hindsight,
now we have the benefit that the Ravens had such
a big lead in these games on average, and they
(09:34):
felt like when they had that lead, they were so unstoppable,
that the opponents were desperate, and that desperation, that frantic nous,
lad the inefficiency. It led to a compounding of mistakes
pick six of strip sacks and when it was a
tight game or in this case, they were playing from
behind and Tynesse benefited from being able to be defensively.
(09:58):
Uh keyed in Lamar having to throw, and Colin made
a great point on that today Lamar is not the
best quarterback one behind. We know that, right, So it
strikes me this is more about that we didn't see
clearly that the Ravens only play this whow or at
least as well as they did throughout the year, from
(10:21):
the lead, where as a really good team and maybe
that's Kansas City and we'll talk about that, but a
really good team can play from the lead and from behind.
Does that does that resonate big time? And you predicted
that last week on our podcast r J you talked about, Wow,
You're like Baltimore that that defense. I'm not going to
put them in the top five FeAs I'm paraphrasing, of course,
(10:43):
because they're they're they're great when they have the lead,
but we haven't seen them hit in the mouth. We
haven't seen them behind. How are they going to respond?
And obviously you were very imprescient because they did not
respond well at all, and it didn't look like they
wanted any part of two under fifty pound Derrick Henry
punching them in the mouth. I appreciate you saying that.
I'm j bow straight out of Vegas at Steve Fezig
the I'm always suspicious when I hear the same answer
(11:07):
again and again and again to a big question. And
we've been saying that same thing about Jimmy Smith and
about Peters, and it just started feeling wrong to me.
And I'm not even sure I was right. I just
know that it just seems strange at defense got so
good so fast with some modest changes. And also, if anything,
they're there. The front seven wasn't their strong suit and
(11:30):
Tennessee was a type of team that could exploit that. Brad,
what was your final takeaways? Well? I found this to
be quite surprising. The Titans out gained by two hundred
and thirty yards. We've been having this discussion, you know what,
what do yards really matter? Because it didn't seem so
much that the Cowboys, but yet Baltimore was really good
coming into this game in yards number one, number one
(11:52):
margin in the game, and yet Baltimore looked really good
out gained Tennessee by two hundred and thirty yards. It's
the biggest yards differential for a losing team in the
history of the NFL playoffs. So no team ever has
been out gamed by this much and still won the
game r J and the history of the playoffs. So
does that strike you as it was kind of flukey does?
(12:13):
That's the thing? It didn't feel the Titans, clearly we're
the better team. I can understand a lot of the
yards because Tennessee jumped on him early, and we see
that all the time. When a team jumps out to
the big lead early, usually the team from behind is
going to be throwing more and the yards will be
in their favor. Yeah, So I think that here's what
we can say about yardage in any given game, especially
(12:37):
if one team is out to a big lead. It
can be deceiving over the course of eight or ten
games and then onward. I think the net yardage is uh,
very very taling and it could be the certain team
has three or four situations where they're gonna make up
(12:57):
yardage in a given spot. I mean, there's always the
chance of aberration, but I think net and net in
any given game, yardists can be deceiving. Over the course
of an extended period of games or time or succession
of games, it's hard for the yard Is July all
that much? Would you agree with that? All right? So
(13:18):
what we'll have to talk about? Uh? Oh, final word?
Just I just I've been looking at you know, getting
hit in the mouth for the first time for the Ravens.
Their last loss before this game was September nine, so
they went three and a half months of not dealing
with any real adversity as far as having to rebound
from a loss. And so and I know we're going
(13:39):
to talk about the Chiefs game as well too. When
I was watching the Chiefs game, when they got behind
in that game, I I felt like, Oh, they've still
got an opportunity here. This this game doesn't feel over.
I didn't get that with the Ravens. They looked like rattled,
they looked shocked at the situation they were in, and
they looked really unfamiliar to the feeling of being down,
especially at home. I had a big time game, and
(14:01):
we'll have a ton of time in the off season
to discuss this. But what does this really say about Lamar?
Because if he is an elite quarterback with the lead
but problematic without how good is he that net? Certainly
above average, certainly top quarter of the league. But could
(14:21):
he even be in the discussion for top five if
he is historically, let's say we find out that long
term might be the way to say he struggles so
much from behind. The very fact that Baltimore seemed frazzled,
they seemed troubled so much by being behind, was that
them telling us, we know we're in a bad spot here, right.
(14:44):
It can be a cause or an effect, right, but
it feels like, if anything, then falling behind and then
freaking out so much, it was like, Wow, what what
did they understand that we didn't about this team? Which
brings up a final point. You can beat these games
(15:06):
in a way that you have most of your exposure
in the spot you like best. I believe if you
liked Tennessee in this game, and I said it last week,
you got to play him on the money line because
Tennessee isn't the type of team that's gonna be down
seventeen and you're so anxious for them to come back
door for you. But if it's a tight game late,
(15:30):
they have a good chance as any to win cause
of Henry, because of the way they play. So it
strikes and it strikes me. To the Ravens get a
nice lead, they're going to be very very comfortable. Ravens
fall behind, they could be in trouble. You could have
zeroed in on that by Titans on the money line.
Last word final, I agree, and I think Jackson panicked.
(15:50):
If you look at the A eight plays for Baltimore
seventy nine eight eight, Jackson either ran the ball or
threw the ball. He stopped handing it off to Edward.
Do you think he's calling of plays? Well, he's got
the options, but how do we know what I mean?
What I'm saying is is if we if he had
gone the other way and didn't carry the main load,
we would have said, wait, he's supposed to be the
(16:12):
m v P and he's not taking the load. He
doesn't want this, he's not ready for prime time. I
I don't want to micro analyze the read you know,
the read option on a per play basis, But if
if an m v P wants to take the ball more.
I think that's probably It's like Kobe missing a lot
(16:32):
of shots when he was young in tight spots. It
led to Kobe being Kobe later. I don't think that's
that to me? Isn't the problem when we come back?
Will break down that Kansas City game? What were the
odds when Kansas City was down twenty four nothing? A
lot of people said, Oh I knew, I knew they
were gonna come back. How much would you make if
(16:55):
you would bet them to come back? That's coming up
next to He's r J. Bel I'm Jonas Knox. Is
the pregame you've always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio app. I'm
(17:15):
r J. Bell, we are Straight out of Vegas and
I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of you the Fan. Coming up
here in just a couple of moments. How rich you
actually could have gotten had you seen into the future.
On Sunday, this might be one of the most jam
packed hours in sports radio this year. I think it's
fair to say great day to join this. You can
listen five days a week on hundreds of FSR stations,
(17:38):
also Fox Sports Radio dot Com, also I Heart Radio app,
also Sirius x M and Anytime podcast. Just search for
r J Bell right now on the strip fifty four degrees.
The neon is pumping. So r J was a wild
one in Kansas City on Sunday. The Chiefs, trailing by
twenty four to nothing at one point, end up winning
(18:02):
the game outright, a twenty point winner. Fifty one thirty
one was the final, which was well over the over
under and it was your bet of the decade. You're
over under bet of the decade, and it was another
winner for r J Bell on a Monday. You know something,
I didn't really want to talk about this, but now
(18:23):
that you've brought it up, Jonas, I mean, what am
I gonna do? I mean, I didn't mean to make
you blush, just you know, given the facts, a lot
of people estimate that millions were one on it, and
if you think about it, it's probably true, right because
we have hundreds of thousands of listeners. Let's say one
out of ten took me up on it. The other nine,
(18:46):
you'd say, are foolish, but okay, so one let's call it, uh,
let's just say twenty thousand. If they bet how much each,
al right, five dollars would be a hundred thousand, So
even if the average bet was fifty dollars, it was
a million bucks that I gave the world. I took
(19:08):
from the bookies. I reached in the bookies pocket, yanked
it out and spread it around like Robin Hood. But
I didn't want to talk about it. Thank you, though
you had the best interests at home. Now. A lot
of people would say, r J. You should especially be
excited because you cover. It went over in the first half.
(19:29):
It literally took half the game, and I'm like, yeah,
you're right, but I don't want to talk about Then
others would say, well, wait a minute, the tea the
one team went over, and I'd be true, but again,
please enough gut fast and southern on this and the
highest scoring first half. Get this in NFL postseason history
(19:51):
matches your decade of the year over. But again, we're
only as good as their last win. So what I
would say is thank you and actually all joke in aside,
the feedback was wonderful on it, and as I say,
we've been red hot. I've been read hot on these
like super duper plays. It's not like this usually you try.
(20:15):
I mean, if you can win six out of ten
of your super dupers, you're lucky. That's not really a
technical term super duper. But I don't know if it's
because I feel I do think about that. There might
be a million dollars or some variation on this. So
I try to be super judicious about it, and we'll
try to keep it up. But don't let a couple
(20:36):
of wins make it seem like they're short things they're not,
because it kind of seemed like it, but it's not. Alright, Fas,
what's your takeaway on the game itself? I thought, by
the way we did tease it, let's talk about it.
What were the end game on? Yeah, so when Kansas
City trailed twenty four nothing, Kansas City was a three
to one underdog to win the game. It's so funny. Listen.
(20:57):
I love calling cowherd. I mean, we do have a
segment on this show called Colin Cowhard is crazy. So
we're not afraid to be critical. The way Colin was
acting like, well, yeah, we yeah, twenty four nothing. They
were at home, No nothing to concern ourselves with. Come on,
all right, there's no way that, no way that you
(21:20):
could not be concerned if you're in Kansas City, batter,
especially if you're laying on I wonder what I mean,
that's interesting. What would the a ten point tease? If
you think about it from just to pick them, I mean,
do we say like five to one, six to one?
Did they cover? I think eight to one? I mean
(21:41):
it was eight to one on the cover? Oh my gosh,
So what did we say? Misleading final? I can make
the case Kansas City should have won by more r
J Specifically, how did they get so far behind? And
I know we hate to like go ahead and cherry
pick these weird place but go ahead for crazy special
teams points blocked punt touchdown and then essentially a dropped
(22:05):
punt touchdown. Casey gifted Houston fourteen points. And remember now
is it's now eight? No is when the opponent has
been out gained on the season, and again talking about
how yardage matters and outscored on the season, and Houston
had been both when they reached the division round this
(22:25):
century it had been seven prior times. Now it's eight
that they lose the game, they do not make the
conference final. No team, and again this year, no team
that's been outscored and outyarded on the season. Stats matter
over the long term, and I think we saw it
(22:45):
took it went about as well as it could have
a Houston, I think it's fair to say, and they
still got dominated in the game. Jonas, what was your
main takeaway? Um, I felt better about Kansas City trailing
that I did Baltimore trailing. It's the one of the
more one of the weirdest games I've ever seen, and
I was exhausted afterwards, and it felt like there were
(23:08):
two or three different games inside one game. But I wonder,
and I asked Fez this before the show. Had Houston
scored a touchdown, went up twenty one to nothing, had
they gone for it and actually scored a touchdown instead
of settling for the field goal, how much would the
in game odds have changed with them up twenty eight
nothing as opposed to the just the twenty four nothing. Yeah,
(23:29):
you know something, my gut feeling about the game odds,
as you can tell me if you generally agree, is it. Yeah,
it would have made a difference, but not that drastic,
not that drastic four to one instead of three to one.
And I just think it's hard. I know O'Brien is
a punching bag in general, but the two decisions people
(23:51):
are questioning. One he was too conservative and one he
was too aggressive. So it's kind of hard to say
I've only just flipped those would have been good. You know,
it just feels like one of those things he was
going to get to heat, you know, the negativity regardless,
and it's it's also the idea that well, that was
the crucial moment when the momentum of the game turned. Look, man,
(24:12):
you're up twenty four to nothing, all right, if you
want to say that caused one touchdown, that's fine. What
about the other forty four points? You know, like you
could say it's great coaching that they had the lead
at all, because, as Pezic said, and he was at
the national forefront of this and in less than twenty minutes,
where we're talking about what Brad was at the forefront
(24:32):
of is Clemson and how good they are And literally
this was six eight weeks ago. No one was talking
about he was fez And I remember on the Herd,
I do a pod with calling every Friday during the
football season, We'll do on this Friday. And I always
tweeted out at our Jane, Vegas, and he had Kansas
City out of his top ten. It wasn't that long ago.
(24:55):
And Fezis theory was this team was four. No, everyone
thought they were the second best team in the league.
In the interim, the defense got a lot better. My
Homes got hurt, was hobbled, but when he got healthy,
he looked as good as ever. And then he returned Hill.
And if you add Hill worth a point, if you
assume my Homes as good as he was when he
(25:16):
was uninjured early, which he is, and you look at
the defense trend line, you could make the case that
Kansas City was the best team. And Fez, you said
it on Friday, right here and straight out of Vegas.
You said that in the last five years, other than
the Ravens, Kansas City is the best team in the
(25:37):
NFL over the last five years. This Kansas City team
would have been ranked second if we had a five
year ranking correct, which speaks to how good this Kansas
City team is. So I think some of this was
Houston just wasn't supposed to be in the divisional round.
And some of it is Kansas City not only has
my homes in a great offense, but a pretty good defense.
(26:00):
We had him about eight defense. Faz anything about this game?
Final word that changed your mind on that one? Nothing
on the defense, on the offense. I do want to say,
this is an opportunity where we get to see Mahomes
with the brightest lights upon him and a really adversarial situation.
Just respond. I want to say it's Avasarah when you're
(26:20):
at home. Let's say a different situation. Well, I love
the way he called out as an offensive liney. He
addressed his team and he just started screaming at his players.
Not screaming, but just he was so intent on, Hey,
we're gonna get this back. We've got to make you think.
He was saying it very calm, that boardroom voice. He
was engaged. Engaged. That's what I am sometimes, and I
got the word for it. Now, all right, let's do this.
(26:45):
Let's look at one. We'll look at one more game
real quick. Yeah, let's look at the next game, all right, guys,
So let's get to this next game. And it was
the finale of the divisional weekend. It was the green
Bay Packers onto the NFC title game, green Bay a
three win of the Seattle Seahawks. Best back, green Bay,
I agreed with you. You were right rock solid that said.
(27:07):
It could have went either way at most games. Can
main take away? Main takeaway is that green Bay benefited
from Seattle hurting it running back. So we saw Lynch
get two yards per carry. We barely saw home or
get any carries. And bottom line is green Bay's biggest
weakness on defense. You can run on them and Seattle
could not take advantage of that. Okay, but that was
your handicap before the game. You're saying it went that
(27:29):
way and still we barely covered. So does that cause
you do you downgrade green Bay off this game? You
know I did not downgrade green definitely was not gonna upgrade.
It's either going to keep them the same or downgrade,
meaning that after the game, as you were contemplaying, Yes,
so this is something Vegas does that no one else does.
(27:49):
We would say this team just one. Everyone's talking and
taking their bows. They're like anyone that like green Bay.
Now I'm not gonna talk about the people like Seattle.
I'm gonna talk about Seattle. Was overrated, because let's be candid,
and I'm being sincere here. If Seattle had the running backs,
this could have been a different easily would have been
a different game. And I still would be sitting here
(28:11):
today saying Seattle is overrated if they had one, even
if they were healthy with their running backs, I would
say it, just like I want to say right now,
green Bay is overrated. What's the early line, san Fran,
green Bay fat? It's seven to seven and a half.
So what we're saying here is the line Minnesota had
(28:33):
played road Road, which is challenging Cousins out of his
one o'clock comfort zone line with seven, this line is
slightly higher. That means that Minnesota, the market considers even
before green even after green Bay. After green Bay has
the benefit of winning this game, Minnesota last week was
(28:57):
considered to be better than green Bay is right now,
even after winning this game. Yes, great point to me.
I still think they're overrated. I think green Bay has
is the second most overrated team in all football this year,
and I think Seattle was number one. Someone had to
win this game, and what I expect is going to
(29:17):
be I expect domination with San Fran. Though the question becomes,
is that defense what we thought it was? It looked
like it was on the scoreboard. Be sure to catch
live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six
pm Eastern three pm Pacific. Trade Out of Vegas here
on Fox Sports Radio. Coming up ten minutes from now
(29:38):
here on fs ARE, we will have a best bet,
your chance to make a little bit of coin on
a Monday. And I want to let you know we
are brought to you by Auto Zone AutoZone as the
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zone auto Zone. I'm Jonas Knocks, Voice of You the Fan.
He's the Voice of Vegas. R J Bell. All right, Jonas,
let's look at the fourth game forty nine. It was
the forty Niners all over the Minnesota Vikings on Saturday
in the Bay Area. Twenty seven to ten was the
final to me. Entering the game, the question was this,
how good was the forty Niners defense? With many of
(30:21):
their injured players. Alexander likely back, others not so sure.
They all played right, Yeah, d Ford played also, and
how good was that? D Because it's easy to say,
just like we were, uh, skeptical of the Ravens being oh,
just because the Ravens got back Jimmy Smith, they were
(30:42):
so good. No, no, no, I was skeptical of that.
I still am more so now I was skeptical that
that's all it was. With the forty niners. We got
one game of data that says maybe it was a
lot of the injuries. Yeah, I want to talk though
about the bye week. San Francisco had a night in
an No. No, what I want to talk about is
(31:03):
how do you believe the bye week is what was
the big driver on the defense? Yes, so you're saying
more so than the injuries. Yes, because k if Alexander
was out and Brown was out or for what I'm
sorry I was out, but they were rested, you would
have thought, all this team is just as good, not
(31:23):
as good, all right, but but but the rest was
more than the players coming. And the reason I say
that is Alexander on the statue did nothing in this game,
didn't have any tackles. So it was shocking how little
he showed up in the box many but how many
snaps did he play? A big chunk of it he
did play, and the team did say, gave him a
tremendous emotional boost. Oh my gosh, that sounds like like
(31:45):
Lucas on the All right, so do you try? Are
you able to just look at tackles and interceptions or
whatever and say that's really telling about how important the
defensive players. I can, I cannot, but a middle linebacker
should fill up the statue. Okay, so you're saying it's
easy now to say there's another example where it's the
default on the talking head shows are gonna say, uh oh,
(32:10):
look Brown's back. In fact, I think I heard that
a few times today. You're saying, nah, could help next week,
could help in the future. But this was more about
the forty Niners finally got to buy exactly right. Because
the forty Niners did. They had a bye week four.
Every other playoff team had their byas week eight or later.
In that defense, really the eye tests that they're looking tired,
they're looking worned down, and having that full week off
(32:32):
here in the bye week I think was critical. That
defense was flying everywhere on in this game. On Saturday,
Brad Powers, let me ask you, do you remember Fast
talking about now last week on Friday? It was kind
of like one of those Eureka moments. He was reading
and reading and reading. He uncovered something came in. Friday
was one of the highlights of the show. Talked about
(32:55):
the forty Niners had been uh twelve thirteen weeks since
they had a I. He thought that Bide was going
to do them good. He was right at scene. But
before that Friday, had you heard him talk about the
fourt of fatigue at all. It's interesting about the injury
eye test. It wasn't quite the eye test. Who was it?
(33:16):
It was not Old Fast. You gotta love him though,
I mean, he keeps trying. I'm in third grade, Andy,
and I know not to lie, but you should just
tell the truth. Fest just say you know something. I
didn't even realize it was a fatigue, but then I
did because no one else has. So they're not gonna
(33:39):
get tired again in one game. So you're saying, boy,
that BEF. I not that I wish injury upon the players,
but I don't know wish Alexander to you know, get
a little hobble during practice, and everyone's gonna be like,
oh my god, the players are gone again. It's gonna
be that twenty nine rank D or rank D. But
lo and behold, you're gonna say, no, no, no, they're
(34:01):
not fatigued, and that's the key. Yes, all right, we'll
have a chance to dig in this week because I'm
gonna I don't I'm not enough of an X as
a nose guy to really know how much you can
just look at the stat I mean, could it be
a situation that they run away from him? They try
to stay away from so much. It's almost like a
(34:21):
shutdown corner, right, I know, with a like a Dion
type shutdown corner that they might not even have any
past deflections or whatever, but they can shut down that whole,
you know, Rivas Island style. But a middle linebacker, it
seems like it could be hard to do that. But
maybe they're they're playing out on the edges and the fringes.
I don't know you have any thoughts, Briant, No, but
(34:43):
I'll be intriguing to see what we're fees stands after
this week's game. It seems like he overreacts sometimes, intriguing
to see how where he stands after I I bat
him a little bit on it. Right, We just don't
have time today and it costs me money. You know why,
because the National Championship game is tonight and we have
the guy with all the college knowledge with a bit
(35:04):
is it a big pig bread? It isn't now because
today we have a line he's saying, not a big
pick um. But you know something, Fez is going to
throw in a prop just to make up make up
for that's coming up next to He's r J. Bell.
I'm Jonas Knox. This is the pregame show you've always wanted,
and it's money making time next year on Fox Sports Radio.
(35:25):
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell.
We are straight out of and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice
of You the Fan. Kicking off in a little over
an hour from now on ESPN and in New Orleans.
(35:47):
It is the National Championship Number one l s U,
number three Clemson, and right now on pregame dot Com.
L s U a four and a half point favorite.
It was up to six not that long ago, Brad,
you were right here on the radio straight out of
Vegas saying, oh, man, six is so much value. Now
you've been redeemed, that's a if it wins or loses,
(36:11):
you can feel good the market ultimately agreed with you.
But given the givens right now, what do you do
in this game? I still like it. I still think
it's worth a bet, just not obviously as as big
as bet as what it would have been at six.
So Clemson plus four and a half is still a like,
it's still worth a bet here, r J. And here's
what I see. It's still a overreaction to what we
(36:33):
saw last that being the semifinals. So there's this thing
in Vegas called a look aheadline where you can bet
on a future matchup prior to the actually games being played.
So prior to the semifinals, this line, this theoretical Clemson l.
S U game, The line was picked them. And you're
telling me, after just one game for each team that
the line would be sitting here at four and a half.
(36:54):
It seems like an overreaction to me, RJ. Seems like
it or you know it is it is? Is there
anything you can just say straight? Can you say that?
Just say it full throated. This was a crazy irrational overreaction.
This was a crazy irrational overreaction to just one game.
How much? What do you think the line should be?
(37:15):
I think the line should be L s U minus three.
So you're saying a three point adjustment would have been okay,
and even that significant this time of year, at this
point in the season. But you think justified justified? Why
because L s U scheme wise, has been much better defensively,
an awesome personnel wise getting better, and they get a
key player, one of their best players on defense is
(37:37):
back for this game. He's been out since prior to
the Alabama game. That's Brad Powers. He has all the
college knowledge. If you would listen every day, you'd have
Clemson plus six. If you're listening just today because you're thinking, oh, well, Cherry, pick,
hit and run, just get the picks on the big days. Okay, fine,
but you're only plus four and a half fas you've
(37:58):
got the best bat on a prop I like this, Yeah,
I'm gonna bet more points scored in the second half
versus the first half r J and Frankly, this is
a bet we often make in the Super Bowl as well,
and these huge games, teams are oftenly very conservative early.
You don't see a lot of scoring early, But what's
gonna magnify? I believe that concept sixteen day layover, so
(38:20):
rust for both teams has been forever since they played
a game. So I expect the game to start slow,
thus lower scoring in the first half. So I'm betting
second half more points minus one forty versus first half points. Now,
how widely available is this kind of bat? I've seen
it in many of my books. What percentage you have
twenty nine ounce? Okay, I mean when he says, Maddie,
(38:42):
it could be like where you got Well, if it
goes to overtime, does that still count as a second
half bet? Or will they kind of nitpick on that
and say no, No, it's got to be the final
thirty minutes of regulation. Overtime counts the second half, and
that's part of the where there's extra big on it.
You gotta lay the one forty kind of like Brad's
be bad, be also bad and it was bad on Baltimore.
(39:06):
Funny of Kansas City lost too, So I like Clemson
plus six a lot plus four and a half less so,
but still like I really like feasts. And here's why.
I think we've seen it again and again. Just go
back to when the Patriots came back against the Falcons.
(39:27):
It was so unusual. It was like, oh my gosh,
you're you're never gonna forget that. You saw this. Now
we got people saying, oh, down twenty four, nothing, no
big deal. How absurd that is. It's absurd. But still
these teams won't give up. If Alice you gets up big,
Clemson won't give up, vice versa. They won't give up.
(39:48):
And I think because of that, there's always ad And
we've seen in these Alabama games in the National Championships
against Clemson, where at the end of the game it's touchdown, touchdown, touchdown.
You just don't see that urgency, the risk taking earlier
in the game. That's why I like second half scoring
minus one forty. Also, I like clembs. If you missed
any of today's show, including best Bets on that National
(40:10):
Championship game, go to Fox Sports radio dot com for
the podcast. We're back tomorrow right here on Fox Sports
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