January 8, 2020 • 39 mins
RJ Bell and the Straight Outta Vegas crew analyze the latest Tom Brady news and give an overnight line movement that may heavily inform you what is next for Brady's future. The guys give the latest odds on the Browns head coaching search and explain a trend that shows how much of a long shot the Texans are this weekend. Plus, RJ gives his most intriguing trend for the NFL divisional round!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports. This is straight out of
Vegas with the Voice of Vegas, your host r J
bow Fall collect Nasci, the pregame show America has always
(00:29):
wanted from the Vegas Strip. Here's r J. Bow You
heard it. I'm r J live from Las Vegas on
two FSR stations across this great nation. It's six Eastern
(00:51):
three right here in Vegas. Big Wednesday, Man, we got
the games coming up. We also have coach Vacancy in
Cleveland and fez end Brad Powers joined in us in studio.
The pros who know sports batters listen for the money.
Sports fans listen to no more than their bodies. But
(01:15):
you can't have pros without Joe's. He's in l A,
He's Jones. It's not always good to be here? Are
Jane Yes? On a day in which we get one
day closer to the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs,
We've got one team remaining in the NFL still on
the look for a head coach. What is the Vegas lead?
The Vegas lead has to be Tom Brady because we've
actually got odds on the likelihood of him coming back,
(01:39):
and it's what everyone's talking about that's right. Tom Brady
took to Instagram earlier today to announce that he has
quote more to prove in regards to his career. So
what many thought were potentially Tom Brady saying goodbye now
feels like Tom Brady could be coming back to New
England next season. Who thought, I want to talk to
these people thought Brady said goodbye? I yeah, I think
(02:02):
I think they looked at it as that he was
saying goodbye to New England potential. And why what made
them think that contract up at the end of the
year selling his house? You know, that's how many houses
as he have. I don't know. It's like if if
I get rid of a pair of shoes, I'm not
planning never to walk again. I mean, to me, the
(02:23):
absurd thing, and this is something I want to start
talking more explicitly about, is what I've learned about media
through being in the media in a weird way. National
host Who Hunter stations Fox Sports Radio to me the
premier sports talk network, and I think that's even hard
(02:44):
to debate at this point with the talent at this network.
I'm right in the middle of it, except I'm not.
We're in Vegas, and we think very differently than most.
We're thinking about how do we give information? It either
helps you win money or helps you be smarter than
your buddy. That's what we want to do every day.
(03:08):
We don't want to talk about things we don't know about.
And I don't I've met almost every in fact, yeah,
almost every I haven't met Lebotard, almost everyone that's a national,
big name in radio, I've shook hands with a minimum.
None of them understand Tom Brady. You know what I
(03:29):
don't understand Tom Brady. This guy's at a different He's
a different breed. We won't say a different level because
we can decide what we value. Right, A professor that
teaches the classics that a community college might be at
a higher level than Tom Brady to some people. But
Tom Brady is a different breed. And for calling Cowherd,
(03:49):
for whomever to say this is what Brady should do
or this is what I would do if I were Brady,
say who cares? You're not and you're not even close
to who he is, because the very things that make
Brady Brady are the things that are gonna make him
probably have a different conclusion to what he should do now.
(04:13):
Than you will. You know Collins like you know, I
like it, tiety, I like it, neat I I I
hate the I the image of Joe Namath in a
RAMS uniform. I like the image of Joe Namath in
a RAMS uniform. You know why because it shows he
went until he had nothing more to give. And I
(04:33):
think what people don't realize is when we hit forty.
When I hit forty, I'm in my late forties now,
I never felt like it was over in a way.
As a businessman, even as a media guy, forties fifties,
that's your prime. But for an athlete, it's not, and
(04:55):
it's all they've ever known was literally an Instagram post
is leading off our show. That's what Tom Brady knows.
It let off the her today and a lot of
shows in five years. When Bret Brett Farve Let's say
is the analogy of X years ago? His Instagram post
(05:16):
don't lead off any shows? All right. So whatever degree
that Farv has fame, celebrity now, it's a lot less
his uh influence, the attention he gets a lot less.
Brady will be that person one day. Joe Montana was
I met Montana a gambling conference years ago. Remember the
(05:38):
Bodog conference. He was brought in so Joe freaking Montana
went to an offshore gambling conference in Vegas because where
did they pay him? I don't know. Fifteen thousand he
was there. Where do you need me, boss? Right now?
Will Brady ever be there? Probably not? But it just
goes to show you these guys hanging on is only
(05:59):
human and to say, oh, it would be nice to
shut it down, to take to do what right? What's next?
What is he ever gonna do that will feel as
important in the world scheme of things. I'm not raising
kids and all that family. That's a different situation. What's
Will he ever have the impact the effect that Tom
(06:20):
Brady has today? Da Vinci, I don't often quote Da
Vinci Leonardo said you never know how far you can
go till you go too far. Brady does no, will
not know that he's done until he's done, Until you
can't objectively think anything else. That's when he'll probably walk away.
(06:42):
And to be candid, anyone who walks away before that
is either evolved at a level that I can't even comprehend,
or they probably lacked a little smidge of that fire.
And you could say, well, Manning walked away with a
Super Bowl. Yeah, Manning was a bottom quarter of the league, quarterback,
(07:02):
of the starting quarterbacks in the league. Objectively, we're better
than Peyton Manning his last year. Now you can say
the stats don't tell the whole story. Fine, but at
we're at best. He was just an average NFL quarterback.
Barently beats out Brock Eyes Osweiler. Yeah, that's true. Remember
they sat. Remember the Ostrich actually started over him a
(07:22):
game or two at the end of that year, and
it was a choice. That's a great point, Steve Ezig.
He's hasn't quit yet. Oftentimes you wonder when is he
gonna hate No, he said no, And you could say,
well John Elway Alway was about the same, I mean
by far. Always two worst years was two last years
(07:43):
he was, you know, getting older. Now, could he have
done one more year? Probably? And I do think that
there's a extra appeal to what if you win that title.
You know, if if let's say Brady has in his
mind he's gonna play two more years, if he wins
that title this upcoming year, probably increases the chance he
(08:03):
walks away. But to me, we've got to kind of
you know I've had numerous times, dozens of times, well
I've made this better that bad. Last year in the
Super Contest and the week sixteen, two weeks ago, we
were tied for a sixty first prize and I played
a couple of games, especially one I laid nine and
(08:26):
a half. I remember with Tennessee and people said, I
can't believe you're laying nine and a half with a
total of thirty nine and you've got almost three quarters
a million dollars a stake. It's like, yeah, that's why
you're not me, all right. As I think about these
things differently, professional betters, guy like Pheazik. When you hit
your fifty thousand dollar parlay last year on a kickoff
(08:52):
return or it was a defensive touchdown, I mean, that's
one of the great stories in history. So you had
a ten team are going right and you play that
because there's edges associated with it, they are too complicated
to talk about. The tenth game was a Monday night game.
Quickly tell the story and I'm gonna lose. I need
a defensive touchdown at the very end. So how much
times left the game final? So there's a kickoff and
(09:15):
what you need is for the team that kicked the
ball off to somehow get it and score a touchdown,
which was a chance because the other team needed to score,
so they're gonna do laterals and whatever, right, they did touchdown,
and that put you, Oh, you know, so you won
a fifty. And this guy you want to talk about,
(09:38):
of Stone, he walks in like nothing happened. Now, if
he would have lost that way, he still be talking
about it. But that's why he's physic And I think
that in a way. My last point on this, and
we'll get the odds. The fact that we hear people
(09:59):
talking about what they know so little about is probably
a sign that when they're talking about a lot of things,
how much do they really know? And what I want
to share with you guys is when I see the biases,
when I see that the average talk radio guy is
talking about this, and here's why, and quite frankly, here's
how you can make money or be smarter by going
(10:22):
against it, be contrary against the blah blah blah. I'm
r J bel straight out of Vegas. We do have odds, though,
So yesterday, what did the odds say on Brady? What's
the odds say today? Bratti. Brady's odds of returning to
New England yesterday the yes minus one seventy five. What
does that mean? Little more than a sixty chance Brady
returns to New England. That's yesterday today the yes minus
(10:46):
three hundred. That means the odds of Brady returning to
New England more than seventy today ten plus percent chance.
It went up in the last twenty four hours, which,
considering the Instagram, makes a ton of sense. Remember now,
I believe that Brady leveraged the situation to be a
free agent here because he probably wants a two year deal.
(11:08):
I think it's more about he knows he'll be able
to play next year, can he play the year after?
And that perhaps is what Belichick might be resistant to.
That might be the battle. Not if he comes back
or wants to come back, does he get the second year?
Is the question? Steve Ezik, Let's be candid. I've uh,
(11:29):
you've been forthcoming. I beat you on a lot of
bests reading last year or so, it's been a hot streak,
but you got me on this one over under would
Brady's QBR be in the top eleven? So I had
position one through eleven, you had twelve and above, how
do you finish? And right now, if you had to
rank Brady for next year, we did an early look
(11:51):
at next year's quarterback ratings. Where do you have Brady?
He finished seventeenth this year and early look have him
as the number twenty quarterback for next year year. Now
here's the question, in Jonas, I mean, this is to
me the core question. Can you win a Super Bowl
with the twenty best quat It's no longer as Brady're
gonna carry a team, He's not going to carry a team.
(12:14):
Can you win a Super Bowl with the twentie best quarterback?
I would make the case putt Nick Foles wherever you
want to put Nick Nick Fojos, because that, to me
is one of the great mysteries of life, how that happened. Otherwise,
look at the quarterbacks that's won a Super Bowl usually.
In fact, I would make the case all the way
back to Johnson and dol Forer and Flacco would be
(12:37):
the question mark. I think Flacco was playing top ten
that year, but other than that, I don't even think
there's a question. And again I guess Peyton Manning would
be the question. But it's tough to win a super
Bowl without a top ten quarterback? Do you think you
can win one with number twenty? Now, if he's the
twenties best quarterback towards the end of next season, they're
(12:59):
not winning a super Bowl. And does that seem wrong
to you, Number twenty, No, that seems about right based
on how he played. I'm just curious what they do
around him if he does indeed come back, what do
they do around him? Offensive line wise, running game wise,
wide receiver wise, because all of that will increase where
he ranks. I'm assuming on Fez's power rankings. And if
(13:20):
he's you know, closer to the top ten at that
point because of what's around him, then they got a
legitimate shot. Oh, no doubt. And listen, ballot check's ballotchick
if you look back. I was doing some work and
we'll talk about it later in the show on when
teams are outpointed on the season where they've been outscored,
I guess is the easier way to say it. How
(13:41):
How what does that mean about the playoffs? Outyarded? What
does that mean about the playoffs? And I was going back,
is that Patriots team to beat the Rams was outyarded
the entire season. So you know, obviously Brady's a legend today.
But remember the famous John Madden call, uh man the
no no way you can chance. Remember they keep that
(14:02):
field goal at the very end of the game against
the Rams. But New England was very aggressive going down
feet or not going down field, but at trying to
get downfield to kick that late field goal instead of
going a new overtime last offense. I thought, you know,
you looked like you were ready to go. Yeah, teams
(14:23):
remaining about that k where did it go? We're talking
about needing to have a top ten quarterback just to
make the elite eight in the NFL. I can make
the case if you include Tannehill and Jimmy G his
borderline top ten guys. Those are these are the two.
Maybe he's top ten and the Steve Fezik personal right
on the pillow and tuck it underneath before you go
to bat. Clearly top twelve. Yeah, okay, clearly taught twelve.
(14:48):
You know, maybe too. You know what we'll do, maybe
on Friday we'll have to have a crossfire debate. You
take Jimmy G. I'll take the side of truth and
Josica let's see what happens, all right. When we come back,
we're gonna talk a little more coaching. Yes, but I've
got a trend that when you hear this, there's one
team you cannot bet to win the game. There's one
(15:10):
team history says cannot win the game this NFL weekend
that's coming up next. He's r J Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks.
This is the pregame show you've always wanted, right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. I'm r J Bell. We are Straight
(15:32):
out of AA and I'm Jonas Knocks. Voice of you
the Fan coming up here in just a couple of moments.
The waiting game continues for one NFL franchise. Thanks for
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You can listen to FSR stations, Fox Sports Radio dot Com,
(15:56):
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Just search r J Bell right now on the strip
sixty three degrees. The neon is flowing real quick on
this Patriots. You know all this talk about all Brady
(16:16):
needs weapons, Brady needs weapons. You know, Fez says he's
number twenty next year. Yeah, I agree, he didn't have weapons.
Wasn't for lack of trying. I mean, Brad, think about
the resources, the equity the Patriots spent trying to get playmakers. Yeah,
so two years ago, the in the first round, one
of the Patriots do drafty running back in the first round,
(16:37):
Sony Mitchelle, last up and down, up and down yep.
And then even last year tried to get Brady another
weapon first round draft choice wide receiver Nickeil Harry. So
two first round picks the best you could do as
two playmakers. Two playmakers attempted, zero playmakers gained. Also Antonio Brown,
Josh Gordon. I mean a lot of effort, a lot
(17:00):
of misses. I think the story is the misses. The
story isn't that Belichick didn't see Brady needed weapons. Now,
when Brady was a top two or three quarterback. Brady
didn't need the weapons. In a salary cap league. You
gotta go week somewhere, so you got your one of
the best players in the league, a quarterback, you go
(17:21):
week at playmaker. Oh, I think they've done okay with that.
We talked about it yesterday. The Patriots are doubly as good,
pretty much as the second best team in the last decade.
That counts this year a bad year as the tenth year.
We call them now coined pregame playoff points. What is that?
(17:42):
Every time you make the playoffs you get one. Every
round you advance you get a point. So if you
win the Super Bowl, you get five? All right? Patriots
have thirty five points in ten years the second That
means half the time. Think about that, half the time
they make the conference championship game, half the time they
make the Super Bowl. Their average performances in between that
(18:04):
in ten years, the next best team Seattle had twenty points,
next best team Green Bay eighteen. Every other team half
or less of the Patriots. It's amazing. Steeler is supposed
to be pretty good, right, Baltimore is pretty good? Right?
Twenty nine playoff points combined, Patriots thirty five. Yeah, let's question.
(18:29):
Let's question ballot check talk radio dumb dumbs as we
got an over under on the Patriots next year. Yeah,
season win number is ten currently. I gotta tell you,
r J, I like under ten wins for the Patriots. Well,
I think you know you've been saying Brady is gonna
get old for about seven years. It's gonna happen before
we get to one team that we are all waiting
on to make their announcement. We do want to let
(18:50):
you know. We are brought to you by Auto Zone
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The Cleveland Browns are the only team in the NFL
without a head coach currently, and according to ESPN dot com,
the Browns hope to hire their next head coach by Saturday.
(19:13):
Speaking of dumb dums, I'm confused about something, Jones. We
haven't talked about this. Let me just ask you, if
you were gonna hire more quickly in the NFL, what
are the reasons to hire more quickly the best candidates
you're still available exactly? I think that's it. There's no
recruiting obviously, if we're talking a month, it's an issue.
(19:37):
But if we're talking this Saturday or next Saturday or
even the next Saturday, doesn't really affect a lot, right,
Leave it to the Browns to put a self imposed
deadline on themselves when there's no value in it. Does
anyone see any value? Is if another team had an
(19:59):
open slaw, it's very reasonable to say, hey, we do
we want to get Matt rule, we want to get whatever. Right,
But who's gonna what do they think? Uh Iowa State
or something is gonna nap up their candidates? I mean
it makes zero sense, right, But leave it to the Browns.
(20:19):
We got odd Zoe on Browns and right now, Josh
McDaniels the favorite to get the Cleveland Brown's job plus
one fifty, followed by Kevin Stefanski, who's two to one,
Jim Schwartz four to one. This is my brownst You
want to just read them again. I want to theme
and Josh McDaniels plus one fifty, Kevin Stefanski two to one,
(20:40):
Jim Schwartz boar to one to be the next Browns coach.
The Browns, as you one of these candidates you don't
like at all, I don't like Stefans get all for
the Browns, and here is this an ethnic thing? I
don't even know what Stefanski is. So bottom one is
Stefanski loves to on the rock. That's why it was
(21:01):
brought into Minnesota run the ball more. And he had
problems with the Minnesota wide receivers. Remember Diggs talking about
Quentin Feeling being unhappy. While if Diggs and theeland are unhappy,
what's gonna happen to Odell, Beckham and Landry at Cleveland
when Cleveland starts running the ball more? With Stefanski, So
what you're saying is we're letting the players pick the coach. Yes,
(21:22):
how did that work out for Baker Mayfield picking Freddie?
You know, in a way, I think he's making a
good point. If you have players that are gonna feel
like they're empowered to be upset if you don't, if
they don't get the coach a like like an O
B J or Mayfield, perhaps you're kind of asking for
that in a way, right boy, I think what we
(21:46):
said yesterday bears repeating has Lem, owner of the Browns,
is probably the third or fourth most mentioned owner in football.
He likes that or he doesn't have to be in
the news as much as he is. Right, Kraft were
to be on that list, but it was not his choice, right,
(22:08):
so it didn't end how he owe it. But the
reality is what I don't know what you're even saying.
I mean, that's Brad Power's m R J. Bow The
To me, why does he want the publicity? Doesn't even matter.
(22:30):
What we know is he wants it. He's like a
little mini Jerry Jones. It seems like, now listen, Jerry
Jones is a business genius or is I don't really know.
You know this fellow in his background and what he's
good at and what he's not. I know, usually teams
don't win when you know the owner's name. Al Davis
didn't win a lot of games when he was Al
(22:51):
Davis right, when he was the Raiders owner for a
lot of decades he was you know, he won some games.
Then he became the focus of the Converse station. They
didn't win some games. I don't think you attract elite
talent by having an owner who's gonna stick his nose in.
And to me, when I look at that list, if
(23:13):
you're the Patriots OC, if you're the coach in waiting
after Belichick, and you turned down the coach when you
thought Andrew Luck was gonna be there before he quit. No,
people don't like to hear it, but that's exactly what
happened before he quit. Why in the heck would he
take the Brown's job with this, with this owner, you know,
(23:37):
photo bombing every news conference. The only thing I can
think of is possibly Belichick gonna it's gonna stay longer
than what he expected. But even so, he's not. He's
he gonna take the first job that kind of aggressively.
He could have put out feelers with the Giant. You
don't think the Giants would have wanted the boss of
the guy they hire. By the way, real quick, guys,
(23:57):
you were uh we had a special one on one
yesterday with Jonas. Any thoughts, judge anything, jump out at
you Giants higher just to an experience for me, m
m M. I was surprised. As bad as the new
England wide receivers were this year, that's a good wide receiver.
Coach got this huge job. That's a good point that
Belichick umbrella. Now we actually, real quick here did a
(24:19):
little research on this pregame dot com McKenzie in research
the Belichick tree. All right, so Floras, Patricia O'Brien, McDaniel,
who did play it, or coach at Denver Mangini, Romeo
cr Now straight up undty winners, two hundred losers, hundred
(24:44):
forty two. D let me let me see here, yeph
below hundred and two against the spread one So literally,
by definition, these guys pretty much mat expectations straight up.
(25:05):
Though now a lot of people have said, hey, what
about Andy Reid. His coaches seem to do great. Okay,
look at this hardball childress Uh Fraser, Rivera Shermer, Bowls,
Doug Peterson, McDermott, Naggy Spagnolia. I could have done better there?
(25:32):
Do you want to do that for me? Jonas Spagnola?
There it is Spagnola. That's why I mean, this guy
is a pro four eleven or this is against the
spread now, or let's start straight up four and four
twelve and again, I think that's almost fift. So I
(25:53):
get the whole Belichick is so much worse. I totally
get that. But if you're four ten and four twelve
with your tree, it just strikes me it's kind of
hard to like stride around saying how great the tree
is right and against the spread four eleven and soft.
(26:17):
I don't know now if you want to look at
playoff berths, and that's the way to look at it.
Belichick five, four from Bill O'Brien much maligned, and one
from Mangini and then with Andy Reichs Tree twenty one
playoff appearances, Hardball eight, Childer's too, Frasier one, Rivera four,
(26:45):
Peterson three, McDermott two, Naggie one. So playoffs, let's give
a hat tip to Andy Reid's Tree regular season and
you add it all up a little less than five
h are not all that impressive. R J. There is
a trend this weekend in the NFL. It's on the
(27:06):
A f C side of the playoffs. The Houston Texans
are getting nine and a half points currently on pregame
dot com at the Chiefs coming up on Sunday. I
love anything which repeats itself, like one of my favorite
times of the year is March Madness. And why because
effectively we had we've had sixty four teams, you know,
(27:27):
starting on third, the first Thursday, and those sixty four
teams um have six rounds in order to you know,
win a title, and you can say, what's the first
round record, what's the second round record, etcetera, etcetera. And
to be honest, that kind of repetition lends itself to trends. Oh,
(27:48):
if the team wins the first two rounds, what happens
in the third? And what we do is we put
out our bracket picking tips every year, which are really
nice because there's a lot of history to them. So, oh,
this trend is fascinating when you have a team that's
been outscored on the season, okay, and then they reach
(28:10):
the division round. So right now, the Houston Texans have
been outscored this season. You look at the points they scored,
the points are opponents scored, Houston scored less. Their opponents
have scored more. A team in that situation since two
(28:31):
thousand this century, oh and seven in this round a
team has never made the conference finals a f C
NFC being outscored on the season. So, and this is
a regular season stat. It doesn't matter what you do
in the playoffs. But even though if you count the playoffs,
(28:52):
because by definition, you would have advanced to be in
this divisional round, I don't think no one's ever won
a bye by being outscored. It's on it's impossible. So
Houston won an additional game. They've still been outscored by
four points on the season. A team like this this
bad because Fez, it's our belief that close games even out,
(29:15):
and the point differential tells you as much, if not more,
about a team than their wins and loss exactly right.
So Houston's nine and three and close games, if they
had just been six and six, that would have taken
three wins away from them. They would not have been
a playoff team because in theory you're supposed to be
break even on close games. You can say, Watson's gonna
(29:35):
make a difference. Okay, wouldn't Russell Wilson be the guy
that would make a difference. He has this year, but
before that, from two thousand and twelve, I think until
last year, Russell Wilson in games decided by seven points
or last three games below. This year, he's done better.
Oh guess what, it's all gonna even out. And I
(29:55):
think running quarterbacks might have a little edge latent games,
but it's a little. It's a little. That's Houston should
probably have three last wins and thus in general, they
might be able to win a game by a miracle
in the first round another miracle. History says they don't
win this round. They never have this century. Be sure
(30:17):
to catch live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays
at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. You know, Jonas says,
you know, I like to walk the tight rope without
a net, right. I don't like too much prep. I
like us to be fresh. I want to do a
new segment the next block here. I want it to
be Jonas gets to ask one question for free, and
(30:41):
it's any question you've got. Like, as you're handicapping the games,
you'll be like, I just wonder is Kansas City's defense
better than they were? You know, you can ask any
question you want. What do you think it right now?
As we peased it four games? I just want one
(31:03):
factor put it in your pocket. You better not either
bet the game or you better not act like you
are smart with your buddies unless you know what Kansas
City's defensive domination the last six games under defensive coordinator Spagnola,
this team is clicking on all cylinders. Kansas City is
only giving up eleven and a half points per game.
And Kansas City six and oh straight up and against
(31:24):
the spread with that great defense second half of the year.
You think he just said his name. I mean, like
people talk about defenses without mentioning the DC's name, Dante,
but he had had me I have a little stumble
and he like Spagnola. Yeah. I mean, it's like it
was a little tawny you think. All right, So what
you're saying is Mr. Fazik that this was a defense
(31:48):
the narrative last year, and I think it was correct,
not a good defense, like a great offense Kansas City,
my homes historic defense. Well, blow average year started. You
heard a lot of this. Jeez, they might be as
bad as they were last year. But one of the
basic premises of changing coaches, changing schemes is the idea
(32:11):
that you get better as that first season progresses. You
underperformed early because you're not familiar yet, and then later
you're better than people think. So you're saying, last six games, now,
is this after the bye? Is this an arbitrary start point,
or was this after the buy or what this was arbitrary? Okay,
so we're clipping out the best of that, but it's
still all the way through the end of the year.
(32:33):
And the stat that speaks the most too, how good
this Kansas City defensive gotten is eleven a half points
per game? They're giving up eleven and a half, So
that would lead like on the season, who had the
best points per game? It was like, what in the
usually playing around fourteen points per game? This year Patriots?
(32:53):
The Patriots for about about fourteen joins. So what we're
saying is literally, if Kansas City's d it played as
wow as they did the last six games the whole season,
they'd had the best defense in the NFL. Yes, and
where do you have their offense ranked number one? So
it would be the best defense and the best offense. Well,
(33:15):
they must be number one on your power ratings, right
their number two? Just behind Baltimore. But then never knows
how you swallowed to theirs those number two. It's like,
is anyone hearing it to say it? Say it their
number two? I've had them number two for the past month.
Well then that must be the case then, right, Yes,
I mean, but how can you have the best offense
and the best defense and be number two. I still
(33:37):
have Baltimore's defense better because of the bulk of work
over the course of the season. You have Baltimore's defense
that was really well below average for a big chunk
of the year. Right, Yes, but somehow they're better. And
that's gonna be my next point. We're gonna talk about, Well,
we'll talk about what I say, we talked about, but
what But what do you I mean, how could that be?
(33:58):
I get the whole We've heard it seven hunt times.
I know you know Jimmy Smith's name. I got it.
But and I know you know there was a trade
with the Rams. I got it. But the idea of saying, oh, well,
we're gonna demark hate from there, and that is what
the real Ravens defense is because they got healthy and
they made the trade. I am fine with that. But
we can demark hat with Kansas City just the same.
(34:19):
So why how could it be that the Ravens are better?
I'm not sure that they are. Okay, then what you're
saying is your power ratings have been debunked that you're
not even how many points do you think the Ravens
will be favored over Kansas City? So it's not even
a close call, except one team has the better offense
and the better defense and the other one's getting the points.
(34:40):
I don't know. I mean, Joe, maybe I'm not thinking
at a Northwestern graduate level. It doesn't make a ton
of sense. When we come back, we got a new segment.
What does Jonas want to know to try to win
thirty three dollars? Is? I think what we're gonna call
it is that your typical batt three you kidding me?
And best bat from FEZ that's coming up next. He's
(35:02):
r J. Bell. I'm Jonas Knox Is to the pregame
show you've always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell.
(35:23):
We are straight out of a and I'm Jonas Knocks
Voice of you the Fan. All right, r J, I've
thought all break long. I've got my thirty three dollar
question for you guys, and you in particular, the voice
of Vegas heading into the NFL's divisional round of the playoffs. Well,
here's the way I see it. If you flip coins,
you're gonna lose. We know that drunk babies flipping coins,
(35:44):
as I call it. And if you're a great batter,
if you're at the height of your powers, Fazic, maybe
ten years ago, let's say it'd be a situation before
the kid, before the family, there would have been a
situation you're are I return on investment is about ten.
So Jonas bets thirty three to win thirties is standard unit.
(36:07):
So I think this question. Answering it will add three
dollars and thirty cents to your pocket. All right, So
here's what I want to know going into this weekend.
We've got four games obviously four road teams, the Vikings, Titans, Texans,
and Seahawks. Which trend is your favorite favorite a road
team heading into the playoffs this weekend? Yeah, we got
(36:28):
two road teams of following to this great trend. I
put this out on Twitter at r J in Vegas
Division Round two thousand and six and on road team
off a road game. So what does that mean? It means, Oh,
everyone's saying, oh, look the Titans, they just played on
the road. Now they've got to go on the road again,
(36:49):
and they're playing such a good team. And the Vikings, Uh,
how to go on the road tough game. Now they're
on the road again. People tend to overreact to that.
It's not as big of a deal as people think.
So road team off a road game getting a touchdown
or more. Ten and one against the spread since two
(37:11):
thousand and six ten and one Vikings Titans fit the
bill r J. We're gonna get to a couple of
best bets here on straight out of Vegas. First, when
I'll let you know, we are brought to you by AutoZone.
Autozon has more ways for you to get what you
need when you need it. With their free same day
store pickup, you can place your order online and grab
what you need to date. More than fifty auto Zone
locations get in the zone Auto Zone Best bet time
(37:33):
Steve Zick. All right, Steve Zick got Kansas City minus
nine and a half. I bet this. I like Kansas
City right in a minute? Is that bucket one of
my trends? Oh wait, that's Houston. I go ahead, and
you mentioned about Houston being overrated. Houston has been outscored
for the year. Kansas City, by contrast, is underrated. Kansas
City's d is playing at an elite level. Some would
(37:56):
say number one some would say number one, and you
can make the case they had to play six games
this year without a healthy Mahomes Kansas City and he's
fully healthy. Now I like Kansas City minus the nine
and a half, and we're having fun with the debate.
But think about this guy's Kansas City certainly has a
top eight defense at this point. So if you have
a top five offense and a top eight defense, you're
(38:19):
mighty good. And I think you could say that they're
better than that. So I in Kansas City is underrated. Brad,
real quick, this was impromptu. You've got a Saturday. We
thought college was over. You got a Saturday. Best bat
so we got an FCS national It's the National Championship Game.
It's on ABC on Saturday. North Dakota State James Madison,
We're going. We're going. We're going under the total under
(38:42):
forty nine. For three quick reasons. Number one, bad weather forecast,
twenty plus mile an hour. Wins will impact both teams offenses.
That's one reason I like the under. Second reason I
like the under this game is unique compared to any
other FCS game in the season. Why they've had three
weeks off between games, so you're playing all your regular
season games, then you play three straight playoff games, then
(39:04):
three weeks off, and then finally, these teams have met
several times in the playoffs before, very conservative games. The
two teams of average thirty seven total points for same
coach in those games. As now different coaches. All right,
but you're the same culture. Both teams very defensive oriented. Okay, guys,
Tomorrow is gonna be my first total over under of
(39:25):
the decade for free of the two thousand twenties. Back tomorrow,
six pm Eastern Time, right here on Fox Sports Radio
and as always, the I Heart Radio app.
You're listening to Fox Sports. This is straight out of
Vegas with the Voice of Vegas, your host r J
bow Fall collect Nasci, the pregame show America has always
(00:29):
wanted from the Vegas Strip. Here's r J. Bow You
heard it. I'm r J live from Las Vegas on
two FSR stations across this great nation. It's six Eastern
(00:51):
three right here in Vegas. Big Wednesday, Man, we got
the games coming up. We also have coach Vacancy in
Cleveland and fez end Brad Powers joined in us in studio.
The pros who know sports batters listen for the money.
Sports fans listen to no more than their bodies. But
(01:15):
you can't have pros without Joe's. He's in l A,
He's Jones. It's not always good to be here? Are
Jane Yes? On a day in which we get one
day closer to the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs,
We've got one team remaining in the NFL still on
the look for a head coach. What is the Vegas lead?
The Vegas lead has to be Tom Brady because we've
actually got odds on the likelihood of him coming back,
(01:39):
and it's what everyone's talking about that's right. Tom Brady
took to Instagram earlier today to announce that he has
quote more to prove in regards to his career. So
what many thought were potentially Tom Brady saying goodbye now
feels like Tom Brady could be coming back to New
England next season. Who thought, I want to talk to
these people thought Brady said goodbye? I yeah, I think
(02:02):
I think they looked at it as that he was
saying goodbye to New England potential. And why what made
them think that contract up at the end of the
year selling his house? You know, that's how many houses
as he have. I don't know. It's like if if
I get rid of a pair of shoes, I'm not
planning never to walk again. I mean, to me, the
(02:23):
absurd thing, and this is something I want to start
talking more explicitly about, is what I've learned about media
through being in the media in a weird way. National
host Who Hunter stations Fox Sports Radio to me the
premier sports talk network, and I think that's even hard
(02:44):
to debate at this point with the talent at this network.
I'm right in the middle of it, except I'm not.
We're in Vegas, and we think very differently than most.
We're thinking about how do we give information? It either
helps you win money or helps you be smarter than
your buddy. That's what we want to do every day.
(03:08):
We don't want to talk about things we don't know about.
And I don't I've met almost every in fact, yeah,
almost every I haven't met Lebotard, almost everyone that's a national,
big name in radio, I've shook hands with a minimum.
None of them understand Tom Brady. You know what I
(03:29):
don't understand Tom Brady. This guy's at a different He's
a different breed. We won't say a different level because
we can decide what we value. Right, A professor that
teaches the classics that a community college might be at
a higher level than Tom Brady to some people. But
Tom Brady is a different breed. And for calling Cowherd,
(03:49):
for whomever to say this is what Brady should do
or this is what I would do if I were Brady,
say who cares? You're not and you're not even close
to who he is, because the very things that make
Brady Brady are the things that are gonna make him
probably have a different conclusion to what he should do now.
(04:13):
Than you will. You know Collins like you know, I
like it, tiety, I like it, neat I I I
hate the I the image of Joe Namath in a
RAMS uniform. I like the image of Joe Namath in
a RAMS uniform. You know why because it shows he
went until he had nothing more to give. And I
(04:33):
think what people don't realize is when we hit forty.
When I hit forty, I'm in my late forties now,
I never felt like it was over in a way.
As a businessman, even as a media guy, forties fifties,
that's your prime. But for an athlete, it's not, and
(04:55):
it's all they've ever known was literally an Instagram post
is leading off our show. That's what Tom Brady knows.
It let off the her today and a lot of
shows in five years. When Bret Brett Farve Let's say
is the analogy of X years ago? His Instagram post
(05:16):
don't lead off any shows? All right. So whatever degree
that Farv has fame, celebrity now, it's a lot less
his uh influence, the attention he gets a lot less.
Brady will be that person one day. Joe Montana was
I met Montana a gambling conference years ago. Remember the
(05:38):
Bodog conference. He was brought in so Joe freaking Montana
went to an offshore gambling conference in Vegas because where
did they pay him? I don't know. Fifteen thousand he
was there. Where do you need me, boss? Right now?
Will Brady ever be there? Probably not? But it just
goes to show you these guys hanging on is only
(05:59):
human and to say, oh, it would be nice to
shut it down, to take to do what right? What's next?
What is he ever gonna do that will feel as
important in the world scheme of things. I'm not raising
kids and all that family. That's a different situation. What's
Will he ever have the impact the effect that Tom
(06:20):
Brady has today? Da Vinci, I don't often quote Da
Vinci Leonardo said you never know how far you can
go till you go too far. Brady does no, will
not know that he's done until he's done, Until you
can't objectively think anything else. That's when he'll probably walk away.
(06:42):
And to be candid, anyone who walks away before that
is either evolved at a level that I can't even comprehend,
or they probably lacked a little smidge of that fire.
And you could say, well, Manning walked away with a
Super Bowl. Yeah, Manning was a bottom quarter of the league, quarterback,
(07:02):
of the starting quarterbacks in the league. Objectively, we're better
than Peyton Manning his last year. Now you can say
the stats don't tell the whole story. Fine, but at
we're at best. He was just an average NFL quarterback.
Barently beats out Brock Eyes Osweiler. Yeah, that's true. Remember
they sat. Remember the Ostrich actually started over him a
(07:22):
game or two at the end of that year, and
it was a choice. That's a great point, Steve Ezig.
He's hasn't quit yet. Oftentimes you wonder when is he
gonna hate No, he said no, And you could say,
well John Elway Alway was about the same, I mean
by far. Always two worst years was two last years
(07:43):
he was, you know, getting older. Now, could he have
done one more year? Probably? And I do think that
there's a extra appeal to what if you win that title.
You know, if if let's say Brady has in his
mind he's gonna play two more years, if he wins
that title this upcoming year, probably increases the chance he
(08:03):
walks away. But to me, we've got to kind of
you know I've had numerous times, dozens of times, well
I've made this better that bad. Last year in the
Super Contest and the week sixteen, two weeks ago, we
were tied for a sixty first prize and I played
a couple of games, especially one I laid nine and
(08:26):
a half. I remember with Tennessee and people said, I
can't believe you're laying nine and a half with a
total of thirty nine and you've got almost three quarters
a million dollars a stake. It's like, yeah, that's why
you're not me, all right. As I think about these
things differently, professional betters, guy like Pheazik. When you hit
your fifty thousand dollar parlay last year on a kickoff
(08:52):
return or it was a defensive touchdown, I mean, that's
one of the great stories in history. So you had
a ten team are going right and you play that
because there's edges associated with it, they are too complicated
to talk about. The tenth game was a Monday night game.
Quickly tell the story and I'm gonna lose. I need
a defensive touchdown at the very end. So how much
times left the game final? So there's a kickoff and
(09:15):
what you need is for the team that kicked the
ball off to somehow get it and score a touchdown,
which was a chance because the other team needed to score,
so they're gonna do laterals and whatever, right, they did touchdown,
and that put you, Oh, you know, so you won
a fifty. And this guy you want to talk about,
(09:38):
of Stone, he walks in like nothing happened. Now, if
he would have lost that way, he still be talking
about it. But that's why he's physic And I think
that in a way. My last point on this, and
we'll get the odds. The fact that we hear people
(09:59):
talking about what they know so little about is probably
a sign that when they're talking about a lot of things,
how much do they really know? And what I want
to share with you guys is when I see the biases,
when I see that the average talk radio guy is
talking about this, and here's why, and quite frankly, here's
how you can make money or be smarter by going
(10:22):
against it, be contrary against the blah blah blah. I'm
r J bel straight out of Vegas. We do have odds, though,
So yesterday, what did the odds say on Brady? What's
the odds say today? Bratti. Brady's odds of returning to
New England yesterday the yes minus one seventy five. What
does that mean? Little more than a sixty chance Brady
returns to New England. That's yesterday today the yes minus
(10:46):
three hundred. That means the odds of Brady returning to
New England more than seventy today ten plus percent chance.
It went up in the last twenty four hours, which,
considering the Instagram, makes a ton of sense. Remember now,
I believe that Brady leveraged the situation to be a
free agent here because he probably wants a two year deal.
(11:08):
I think it's more about he knows he'll be able
to play next year, can he play the year after?
And that perhaps is what Belichick might be resistant to.
That might be the battle. Not if he comes back
or wants to come back, does he get the second year?
Is the question? Steve Ezik, Let's be candid. I've uh,
(11:29):
you've been forthcoming. I beat you on a lot of
bests reading last year or so, it's been a hot streak,
but you got me on this one over under would
Brady's QBR be in the top eleven? So I had
position one through eleven, you had twelve and above, how
do you finish? And right now, if you had to
rank Brady for next year, we did an early look
(11:51):
at next year's quarterback ratings. Where do you have Brady?
He finished seventeenth this year and early look have him
as the number twenty quarterback for next year year. Now
here's the question, in Jonas, I mean, this is to
me the core question. Can you win a Super Bowl
with the twenty best quat It's no longer as Brady're
gonna carry a team, He's not going to carry a team.
(12:14):
Can you win a Super Bowl with the twentie best quarterback?
I would make the case putt Nick Foles wherever you
want to put Nick Nick Fojos, because that, to me
is one of the great mysteries of life, how that happened. Otherwise,
look at the quarterbacks that's won a Super Bowl usually.
In fact, I would make the case all the way
back to Johnson and dol Forer and Flacco would be
(12:37):
the question mark. I think Flacco was playing top ten
that year, but other than that, I don't even think
there's a question. And again I guess Peyton Manning would
be the question. But it's tough to win a super
Bowl without a top ten quarterback? Do you think you
can win one with number twenty? Now, if he's the
twenties best quarterback towards the end of next season, they're
(12:59):
not winning a super Bowl. And does that seem wrong
to you, Number twenty, No, that seems about right based
on how he played. I'm just curious what they do
around him if he does indeed come back, what do
they do around him? Offensive line wise, running game wise,
wide receiver wise, because all of that will increase where
he ranks. I'm assuming on Fez's power rankings. And if
(13:20):
he's you know, closer to the top ten at that
point because of what's around him, then they got a
legitimate shot. Oh, no doubt. And listen, ballot check's ballotchick
if you look back. I was doing some work and
we'll talk about it later in the show on when
teams are outpointed on the season where they've been outscored,
I guess is the easier way to say it. How
(13:41):
How what does that mean about the playoffs? Outyarded? What
does that mean about the playoffs? And I was going back,
is that Patriots team to beat the Rams was outyarded
the entire season. So you know, obviously Brady's a legend today.
But remember the famous John Madden call, uh man the
no no way you can chance. Remember they keep that
(14:02):
field goal at the very end of the game against
the Rams. But New England was very aggressive going down
feet or not going down field, but at trying to
get downfield to kick that late field goal instead of
going a new overtime last offense. I thought, you know,
you looked like you were ready to go. Yeah, teams
(14:23):
remaining about that k where did it go? We're talking
about needing to have a top ten quarterback just to
make the elite eight in the NFL. I can make
the case if you include Tannehill and Jimmy G his
borderline top ten guys. Those are these are the two.
Maybe he's top ten and the Steve Fezik personal right
on the pillow and tuck it underneath before you go
to bat. Clearly top twelve. Yeah, okay, clearly taught twelve.
(14:48):
You know, maybe too. You know what we'll do, maybe
on Friday we'll have to have a crossfire debate. You
take Jimmy G. I'll take the side of truth and
Josica let's see what happens, all right. When we come back,
we're gonna talk a little more coaching. Yes, but I've
got a trend that when you hear this, there's one
team you cannot bet to win the game. There's one
(15:10):
team history says cannot win the game this NFL weekend
that's coming up next. He's r J Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks.
This is the pregame show you've always wanted, right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. I'm r J Bell. We are Straight
(15:32):
out of AA and I'm Jonas Knocks. Voice of you
the Fan coming up here in just a couple of moments.
The waiting game continues for one NFL franchise. Thanks for
joining us. The fastest growing show on Fox Sports Radio,
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You can listen to FSR stations, Fox Sports Radio dot Com,
(15:56):
I Heart Radio app, also Serious XM, and anytime on podcast.
Just search r J Bell right now on the strip
sixty three degrees. The neon is flowing real quick on
this Patriots. You know all this talk about all Brady
(16:16):
needs weapons, Brady needs weapons. You know, Fez says he's
number twenty next year. Yeah, I agree, he didn't have weapons.
Wasn't for lack of trying. I mean, Brad, think about
the resources, the equity the Patriots spent trying to get playmakers. Yeah,
so two years ago, the in the first round, one
of the Patriots do drafty running back in the first round,
(16:37):
Sony Mitchelle, last up and down, up and down yep.
And then even last year tried to get Brady another
weapon first round draft choice wide receiver Nickeil Harry. So
two first round picks the best you could do as
two playmakers. Two playmakers attempted, zero playmakers gained. Also Antonio Brown,
Josh Gordon. I mean a lot of effort, a lot
(17:00):
of misses. I think the story is the misses. The
story isn't that Belichick didn't see Brady needed weapons. Now,
when Brady was a top two or three quarterback. Brady
didn't need the weapons. In a salary cap league. You
gotta go week somewhere, so you got your one of
the best players in the league, a quarterback, you go
(17:21):
week at playmaker. Oh, I think they've done okay with that.
We talked about it yesterday. The Patriots are doubly as good,
pretty much as the second best team in the last decade.
That counts this year a bad year as the tenth year.
We call them now coined pregame playoff points. What is that?
(17:42):
Every time you make the playoffs you get one. Every
round you advance you get a point. So if you
win the Super Bowl, you get five? All right? Patriots
have thirty five points in ten years the second That
means half the time. Think about that, half the time
they make the conference championship game, half the time they
make the Super Bowl. Their average performances in between that
(18:04):
in ten years, the next best team Seattle had twenty points,
next best team Green Bay eighteen. Every other team half
or less of the Patriots. It's amazing. Steeler is supposed
to be pretty good, right, Baltimore is pretty good? Right?
Twenty nine playoff points combined, Patriots thirty five. Yeah, let's question.
(18:29):
Let's question ballot check talk radio dumb dumbs as we
got an over under on the Patriots next year. Yeah,
season win number is ten currently. I gotta tell you,
r J, I like under ten wins for the Patriots. Well,
I think you know you've been saying Brady is gonna
get old for about seven years. It's gonna happen before
we get to one team that we are all waiting
on to make their announcement. We do want to let
(18:50):
you know. We are brought to you by Auto Zone
Auto Zone as more ways for you to get to
what you need when you need it. With their free
same day store pickup, you can place your order online
and grab what you need to date. More than fifty
x hundred Auto Zone locations get in the Zone auto Zone.
The Cleveland Browns are the only team in the NFL
without a head coach currently, and according to ESPN dot com,
the Browns hope to hire their next head coach by Saturday.
(19:13):
Speaking of dumb dums, I'm confused about something, Jones. We
haven't talked about this. Let me just ask you, if
you were gonna hire more quickly in the NFL, what
are the reasons to hire more quickly the best candidates
you're still available exactly? I think that's it. There's no
recruiting obviously, if we're talking a month, it's an issue.
(19:37):
But if we're talking this Saturday or next Saturday or
even the next Saturday, doesn't really affect a lot, right,
Leave it to the Browns to put a self imposed
deadline on themselves when there's no value in it. Does
anyone see any value? Is if another team had an
(19:59):
open slaw, it's very reasonable to say, hey, we do
we want to get Matt rule, we want to get whatever. Right,
But who's gonna what do they think? Uh Iowa State
or something is gonna nap up their candidates? I mean
it makes zero sense, right, But leave it to the Browns.
(20:19):
We got odd Zoe on Browns and right now, Josh
McDaniels the favorite to get the Cleveland Brown's job plus
one fifty, followed by Kevin Stefanski, who's two to one,
Jim Schwartz four to one. This is my brownst You
want to just read them again. I want to theme
and Josh McDaniels plus one fifty, Kevin Stefanski two to one,
(20:40):
Jim Schwartz boar to one to be the next Browns coach.
The Browns, as you one of these candidates you don't
like at all, I don't like Stefans get all for
the Browns, and here is this an ethnic thing? I
don't even know what Stefanski is. So bottom one is
Stefanski loves to on the rock. That's why it was
(21:01):
brought into Minnesota run the ball more. And he had
problems with the Minnesota wide receivers. Remember Diggs talking about
Quentin Feeling being unhappy. While if Diggs and theeland are unhappy,
what's gonna happen to Odell, Beckham and Landry at Cleveland
when Cleveland starts running the ball more? With Stefanski, So
what you're saying is we're letting the players pick the coach. Yes,
(21:22):
how did that work out for Baker Mayfield picking Freddie?
You know, in a way, I think he's making a
good point. If you have players that are gonna feel
like they're empowered to be upset if you don't, if
they don't get the coach a like like an O
B J or Mayfield, perhaps you're kind of asking for
that in a way, right boy, I think what we
(21:46):
said yesterday bears repeating has Lem, owner of the Browns,
is probably the third or fourth most mentioned owner in football.
He likes that or he doesn't have to be in
the news as much as he is. Right, Kraft were
to be on that list, but it was not his choice, right,
(22:08):
so it didn't end how he owe it. But the
reality is what I don't know what you're even saying.
I mean, that's Brad Power's m R J. Bow The
To me, why does he want the publicity? Doesn't even matter.
(22:30):
What we know is he wants it. He's like a
little mini Jerry Jones. It seems like, now listen, Jerry
Jones is a business genius or is I don't really know.
You know this fellow in his background and what he's
good at and what he's not. I know, usually teams
don't win when you know the owner's name. Al Davis
didn't win a lot of games when he was Al
(22:51):
Davis right, when he was the Raiders owner for a
lot of decades he was you know, he won some games.
Then he became the focus of the Converse station. They
didn't win some games. I don't think you attract elite
talent by having an owner who's gonna stick his nose in.
And to me, when I look at that list, if
(23:13):
you're the Patriots OC, if you're the coach in waiting
after Belichick, and you turned down the coach when you
thought Andrew Luck was gonna be there before he quit. No,
people don't like to hear it, but that's exactly what
happened before he quit. Why in the heck would he
take the Brown's job with this, with this owner, you know,
(23:37):
photo bombing every news conference. The only thing I can
think of is possibly Belichick gonna it's gonna stay longer
than what he expected. But even so, he's not. He's
he gonna take the first job that kind of aggressively.
He could have put out feelers with the Giant. You
don't think the Giants would have wanted the boss of
the guy they hire. By the way, real quick, guys,
(23:57):
you were uh we had a special one on one
yesterday with Jonas. Any thoughts, judge anything, jump out at
you Giants higher just to an experience for me, m
m M. I was surprised. As bad as the new
England wide receivers were this year, that's a good wide receiver.
Coach got this huge job. That's a good point that
Belichick umbrella. Now we actually, real quick here did a
(24:19):
little research on this pregame dot com McKenzie in research
the Belichick tree. All right, so Floras, Patricia O'Brien, McDaniel,
who did play it, or coach at Denver Mangini, Romeo
cr Now straight up undty winners, two hundred losers, hundred
(24:44):
forty two. D let me let me see here, yeph
below hundred and two against the spread one So literally,
by definition, these guys pretty much mat expectations straight up.
(25:05):
Though now a lot of people have said, hey, what
about Andy Reid. His coaches seem to do great. Okay,
look at this hardball childress Uh Fraser, Rivera Shermer, Bowls,
Doug Peterson, McDermott, Naggy Spagnolia. I could have done better there?
(25:32):
Do you want to do that for me? Jonas Spagnola?
There it is Spagnola. That's why I mean, this guy
is a pro four eleven or this is against the
spread now, or let's start straight up four and four
twelve and again, I think that's almost fift. So I
(25:53):
get the whole Belichick is so much worse. I totally
get that. But if you're four ten and four twelve
with your tree, it just strikes me it's kind of
hard to like stride around saying how great the tree
is right and against the spread four eleven and soft.
(26:17):
I don't know now if you want to look at
playoff berths, and that's the way to look at it.
Belichick five, four from Bill O'Brien much maligned, and one
from Mangini and then with Andy Reichs Tree twenty one
playoff appearances, Hardball eight, Childer's too, Frasier one, Rivera four,
(26:45):
Peterson three, McDermott two, Naggie one. So playoffs, let's give
a hat tip to Andy Reid's Tree regular season and
you add it all up a little less than five
h are not all that impressive. R J. There is
a trend this weekend in the NFL. It's on the
(27:06):
A f C side of the playoffs. The Houston Texans
are getting nine and a half points currently on pregame
dot com at the Chiefs coming up on Sunday. I
love anything which repeats itself, like one of my favorite
times of the year is March Madness. And why because
effectively we had we've had sixty four teams, you know,
(27:27):
starting on third, the first Thursday, and those sixty four
teams um have six rounds in order to you know,
win a title, and you can say, what's the first
round record, what's the second round record, etcetera, etcetera. And
to be honest, that kind of repetition lends itself to trends. Oh,
(27:48):
if the team wins the first two rounds, what happens
in the third? And what we do is we put
out our bracket picking tips every year, which are really
nice because there's a lot of history to them. So, oh,
this trend is fascinating when you have a team that's
been outscored on the season, okay, and then they reach
(28:10):
the division round. So right now, the Houston Texans have
been outscored this season. You look at the points they scored,
the points are opponents scored, Houston scored less. Their opponents
have scored more. A team in that situation since two
(28:31):
thousand this century, oh and seven in this round a
team has never made the conference finals a f C
NFC being outscored on the season. So, and this is
a regular season stat. It doesn't matter what you do
in the playoffs. But even though if you count the playoffs,
(28:52):
because by definition, you would have advanced to be in
this divisional round, I don't think no one's ever won
a bye by being outscored. It's on it's impossible. So
Houston won an additional game. They've still been outscored by
four points on the season. A team like this this
bad because Fez, it's our belief that close games even out,
(29:15):
and the point differential tells you as much, if not more,
about a team than their wins and loss exactly right.
So Houston's nine and three and close games, if they
had just been six and six, that would have taken
three wins away from them. They would not have been
a playoff team because in theory you're supposed to be
break even on close games. You can say, Watson's gonna
(29:35):
make a difference. Okay, wouldn't Russell Wilson be the guy
that would make a difference. He has this year, but
before that, from two thousand and twelve, I think until
last year, Russell Wilson in games decided by seven points
or last three games below. This year, he's done better.
Oh guess what, it's all gonna even out. And I
(29:55):
think running quarterbacks might have a little edge latent games,
but it's a little. It's a little. That's Houston should
probably have three last wins and thus in general, they
might be able to win a game by a miracle
in the first round another miracle. History says they don't
win this round. They never have this century. Be sure
(30:17):
to catch live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays
at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. You know, Jonas says,
you know, I like to walk the tight rope without
a net, right. I don't like too much prep. I
like us to be fresh. I want to do a
new segment the next block here. I want it to
be Jonas gets to ask one question for free, and
(30:41):
it's any question you've got. Like, as you're handicapping the games,
you'll be like, I just wonder is Kansas City's defense
better than they were? You know, you can ask any
question you want. What do you think it right now?
As we peased it four games? I just want one
(31:03):
factor put it in your pocket. You better not either
bet the game or you better not act like you
are smart with your buddies unless you know what Kansas
City's defensive domination the last six games under defensive coordinator Spagnola,
this team is clicking on all cylinders. Kansas City is
only giving up eleven and a half points per game.
And Kansas City six and oh straight up and against
(31:24):
the spread with that great defense second half of the year.
You think he just said his name. I mean, like
people talk about defenses without mentioning the DC's name, Dante,
but he had had me I have a little stumble
and he like Spagnola. Yeah. I mean, it's like it
was a little tawny you think. All right, So what
you're saying is Mr. Fazik that this was a defense
(31:48):
the narrative last year, and I think it was correct,
not a good defense, like a great offense Kansas City,
my homes historic defense. Well, blow average year started. You
heard a lot of this. Jeez, they might be as
bad as they were last year. But one of the
basic premises of changing coaches, changing schemes is the idea
(32:11):
that you get better as that first season progresses. You
underperformed early because you're not familiar yet, and then later
you're better than people think. So you're saying, last six games, now,
is this after the bye? Is this an arbitrary start point,
or was this after the buy or what this was arbitrary? Okay,
so we're clipping out the best of that, but it's
still all the way through the end of the year.
(32:33):
And the stat that speaks the most too, how good
this Kansas City defensive gotten is eleven a half points
per game? They're giving up eleven and a half, So
that would lead like on the season, who had the
best points per game? It was like, what in the
usually playing around fourteen points per game? This year Patriots?
(32:53):
The Patriots for about about fourteen joins. So what we're
saying is literally, if Kansas City's d it played as
wow as they did the last six games the whole season,
they'd had the best defense in the NFL. Yes, and
where do you have their offense ranked number one? So
it would be the best defense and the best offense. Well,
(33:15):
they must be number one on your power ratings, right
their number two? Just behind Baltimore. But then never knows
how you swallowed to theirs those number two. It's like,
is anyone hearing it to say it? Say it their
number two? I've had them number two for the past month.
Well then that must be the case then, right, Yes,
I mean, but how can you have the best offense
and the best defense and be number two. I still
(33:37):
have Baltimore's defense better because of the bulk of work
over the course of the season. You have Baltimore's defense
that was really well below average for a big chunk
of the year. Right, Yes, but somehow they're better. And
that's gonna be my next point. We're gonna talk about, Well,
we'll talk about what I say, we talked about, but
what But what do you I mean, how could that be?
(33:58):
I get the whole We've heard it seven hunt times.
I know you know Jimmy Smith's name. I got it.
But and I know you know there was a trade
with the Rams. I got it. But the idea of saying, oh, well,
we're gonna demark hate from there, and that is what
the real Ravens defense is because they got healthy and
they made the trade. I am fine with that. But
we can demark hat with Kansas City just the same.
(34:19):
So why how could it be that the Ravens are better?
I'm not sure that they are. Okay, then what you're
saying is your power ratings have been debunked that you're
not even how many points do you think the Ravens
will be favored over Kansas City? So it's not even
a close call, except one team has the better offense
and the better defense and the other one's getting the points.
(34:40):
I don't know. I mean, Joe, maybe I'm not thinking
at a Northwestern graduate level. It doesn't make a ton
of sense. When we come back, we got a new segment.
What does Jonas want to know to try to win
thirty three dollars? Is? I think what we're gonna call
it is that your typical batt three you kidding me?
And best bat from FEZ that's coming up next. He's
(35:02):
r J. Bell. I'm Jonas Knox Is to the pregame
show you've always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live. I'm r J. Bell.
(35:23):
We are straight out of a and I'm Jonas Knocks
Voice of you the Fan. All right, r J, I've
thought all break long. I've got my thirty three dollar
question for you guys, and you in particular, the voice
of Vegas heading into the NFL's divisional round of the playoffs. Well,
here's the way I see it. If you flip coins,
you're gonna lose. We know that drunk babies flipping coins,
(35:44):
as I call it. And if you're a great batter,
if you're at the height of your powers, Fazic, maybe
ten years ago, let's say it'd be a situation before
the kid, before the family, there would have been a
situation you're are I return on investment is about ten.
So Jonas bets thirty three to win thirties is standard unit.
(36:07):
So I think this question. Answering it will add three
dollars and thirty cents to your pocket. All right, So
here's what I want to know going into this weekend.
We've got four games obviously four road teams, the Vikings, Titans, Texans,
and Seahawks. Which trend is your favorite favorite a road
team heading into the playoffs this weekend? Yeah, we got
(36:28):
two road teams of following to this great trend. I
put this out on Twitter at r J in Vegas
Division Round two thousand and six and on road team
off a road game. So what does that mean? It means, Oh,
everyone's saying, oh, look the Titans, they just played on
the road. Now they've got to go on the road again,
(36:49):
and they're playing such a good team. And the Vikings, Uh,
how to go on the road tough game. Now they're
on the road again. People tend to overreact to that.
It's not as big of a deal as people think.
So road team off a road game getting a touchdown
or more. Ten and one against the spread since two
(37:11):
thousand and six ten and one Vikings Titans fit the
bill r J. We're gonna get to a couple of
best bets here on straight out of Vegas. First, when
I'll let you know, we are brought to you by AutoZone.
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(37:33):
Steve Zick. All right, Steve Zick got Kansas City minus
nine and a half. I bet this. I like Kansas
City right in a minute? Is that bucket one of
my trends? Oh wait, that's Houston. I go ahead, and
you mentioned about Houston being overrated. Houston has been outscored
for the year. Kansas City, by contrast, is underrated. Kansas
City's d is playing at an elite level. Some would
(37:56):
say number one some would say number one, and you
can make the case they had to play six games
this year without a healthy Mahomes Kansas City and he's
fully healthy. Now I like Kansas City minus the nine
and a half, and we're having fun with the debate.
But think about this guy's Kansas City certainly has a
top eight defense at this point. So if you have
a top five offense and a top eight defense, you're
(38:19):
mighty good. And I think you could say that they're
better than that. So I in Kansas City is underrated. Brad,
real quick, this was impromptu. You've got a Saturday. We
thought college was over. You got a Saturday. Best bat
so we got an FCS national It's the National Championship Game.
It's on ABC on Saturday. North Dakota State James Madison,
We're going. We're going. We're going under the total under
(38:42):
forty nine. For three quick reasons. Number one, bad weather forecast,
twenty plus mile an hour. Wins will impact both teams offenses.
That's one reason I like the under. Second reason I
like the under this game is unique compared to any
other FCS game in the season. Why they've had three
weeks off between games, so you're playing all your regular
season games, then you play three straight playoff games, then
(39:04):
three weeks off, and then finally, these teams have met
several times in the playoffs before, very conservative games. The
two teams of average thirty seven total points for same
coach in those games. As now different coaches. All right,
but you're the same culture. Both teams very defensive oriented. Okay, guys,
Tomorrow is gonna be my first total over under of
(39:25):
the decade for free of the two thousand twenties. Back tomorrow,
six pm Eastern Time, right here on Fox Sports Radio
and as always, the I Heart Radio app.
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