January 9, 2020 • 40 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas, RJ Bell and the crew discuss Mike Leach's impact, injuries and lessons for bettors. While Steve Fezzik says he believes the hiring of Mike Leach will lead to Saban never winning another championship, RJ says he disagrees - citing if he is such a good coach why have no other school's tried to get him as their head coach? Plus, the guys talk about the injuries around the NFL, including Ravens RB Mark Ingram being listed as questionable but this does not change the line in Vegas whatsoever. Also, RJ talks about the changing of the NCAA 3 point line being a good lesson for bettors, citing the average total over/under was too high for Vegas and have since moved it down since, ultimately leading to bettors having to adjust as well, saying you should always keep an eye on the market, especially if you have found a good bet.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. This is Straight out
of Vegas with the Voice of Vegas, your host, r
J Bow, collect the pregame show America has always wanted
(00:40):
from the veggest trip Ear's r J Bow. You heard it.
I'm r J Live from Las Vegas on two hundred
FSR stations across this great nation. It is Thursday, and
we got a lot of NFL to talk about. We've
(01:00):
got a National Championship game coming up not that far away.
Joined in studio one of the pros who know Brad
Powers physic on a study day, getting ready. We got
a couple of heads up crossfires on Friday planned, big
underdog physic, Big dog sports. Vettors listen for the money.
(01:22):
Sports fans listen to no more than their bodies. But
you can't have pros without Joe's. He's in l A,
He's Jones. Always good to be here, r J. And
we start on straight out of Vegas. Here. As we
look ahead, we inch closer to a three day weekend
in the world of football that includes two football games
in the NFL Divisional playoff games on Saturday, another two
(01:43):
on Sunday, and the National Championship Game in college football.
But as far as today goes, what is the Vegas lead?
None of those things. Now this is gonna surprise you,
so listen closely. Vegas lead. Mike Leach to Mississippi State
might be huge when it comes to the national champion
(02:07):
next year, year after next, couple years. Yes, and Yahoo
Sports was the first to report that Mike Leach formally
of Texas Tech and Washington State, is now the head
coach at Mississippi State, which makes the Egg Bowl next
year against Lane Kiffin that much more interesting, no doubt
about it. And listen all the college knowledge, Brad Powers,
(02:29):
that's probably the guy to ask why is it? And
this was one in the round table. You pushed Vegas leads,
you said, I said no, you said Vegas lead. I said, okay,
take it away. Yeah, And I am officially doubling down
our j on a bet you and I made about
a month ago and I said, believe it or not,
(02:50):
Nick Saban will never win another national championship at Alabama.
I am doubling down on that bet. Why, well, his path,
Nick Saban just got harder with today's announcement of Mike
Leach being hired in Mississippi State, and it got harder
even after we made that bet when Lane Kiffin was
hired to be the head coach at Old miss Lane
Kiffin to me, it's more Lane Kiffin. It's more about recruiting.
(03:12):
I think Lane Kiffin is good enough to take. So
where have we seen that? Oh we've seen it? Where
where a place? He's one two champion place games? Florida Atlantic. Yeah, okay,
so he recruits really well for Florida Atlantic. He did
a good job recruiting at s C in Tennessee. So
how how many? Uh? I mean, what was the big
win and what was the big bowl game? And those
(03:34):
for those teams? Uh? There there really wasn't one. Okay,
continue fair enough? Are j oh listen? I hear you.
I think it's a good conversation. But I here's what
I know. Any team in the SEC could have had
him last year, right, And what did they all say? Pass? Thanks?
(03:55):
No thanks? And then is it me? Was there a
bid war for his services this year? A little bit? Really? Well? No,
not among it like a major school. Who was the
other school? There was talks like Missouri might be interesting talks? Yeah? Okay,
So what I would say is this, when you have
(04:17):
the SEC, which is very good at picking every element
of their football. Coaches on down players, who to pay,
how much to pay, you know, all those things with
the players. They are right, you know, great at the SEC.
They're saying, you know Kiffin, Yeah he was a fine coordinator.
Maybe not Actually who knows, he doesn't. He shouldn't be
(04:40):
coaching an SEC school a team. It's been a how
long has it been since he was at Alabama? He
coached three years at Floor Atlantic three years ago, so
literally there was two or I mean three years so
year one everyone said no, and let's be candid, he
would have taken the job at New Mexico. Right. No,
(05:01):
he was Wyoming. No, he was making he was on
the beach. He's making a million a year. You sound,
you know, you sound like some of these normal talk
radio guys acting like they understand Lane Kiffen. You don't
think he hated being outside of the big boys. He
hated it, no doubt, not even in the Power five.
(05:23):
I mean, I don't know, maybe not Wyoming. Right, but well,
let's agree to this. Any Power five jobs, absolutely he
would have taken it. Northwestern, he would have taken it,
Maryland taken it so how many Power five schools are
So sixty five schools had a chance in year one
they said no, sixty five in year two, so now
(05:44):
we have a hundred and thirty no thank you, sixty
five and year three boom right in my head, no
thank you. And finally this year one out of all
those schools said yes. So out of uh to sixty,
about two sixty or so schools one said yes. But
(06:06):
we're supposed to be scared. Where do you think, Jonas?
I would not be scared, but I do. I do
like I do like the Hires because I do think
Lane Kiffin is is a good coach, but I don't
know that it's this, you know, going to shake up
the conference type coach, no doubt. And I do, though
agree with Brad. I'm r J. Bell. That was Jonas knocks.
(06:28):
Now we're gonna ask Brad Powers a question. I don't
agree with you. With Kivin, I very much agree with Leech. Yeah.
And here's the thing with Mike Leach. Is Mike Leach
ever gonna win a national championship? No, but he can
prevent a guy like Nick Saban from winning a national championship.
Why because of the quirkiness on Mike Leach's offense. It's
(06:50):
a headache for these teams to prepare. It's gonna be
unlike any other offense than any of these coaches have
seen in the SEC. And you know, the chances of
a Mississippi State beating in Alabama, you know that chance
might have been five ten percent in the past. Now
with Mike Leach there, not necessarily like he's gonna be
a great recruiter and have a bunch of better players.
But because the quirkiness of the offense, the chances of
(07:12):
the Mississippi State beating in Alabama now, I'd argue have
doubled r J because of the quirkiness. And I also
think it's because of the high variance style play. So
let's that sounds kind of fancy, but let's think about
Wisconsin football. Low variants, they're best game, they're worst game,
(07:32):
not gonna be that far apart why they don't throw
the ball a lot. What creates variants turnovers, And I
would make the case that they're typically pretty motivated. You
don't see the big peaks and valleys. Now with a
team like or with an offense like Leeches offense, it's
(07:53):
not about motivation as much it's about this offense can
do shockingly well in a given situation. It might be
because of the way the other teams playing it. It
might just be the way the ball bounces that day.
So I do agree with you. When they are a
big dog, when Leech's team is a big dog, they've
(08:13):
got a better chance than most any other team in
the country when they're a big dog. And the prep time,
as you said, regardless of the Alabama's beat Mississippi State. Now,
the prep time in the off season leading up, you know,
the camps all the way up to the week of
the game. They can't, you know, be peeking ahead to
(08:33):
the l s U game or whatever. I think it's
a big deal. And I'm also anxious, anxious to see
Leech in action. If you go back to Texas Tech.
This is what I like to do. When a guy leaves.
What happens? All right? So, Kansas University, Mark Mangino, the
Orange Bowl win, Kansas football won the Orange Ball? What
(08:58):
eleven years ago? And what's happened since? When they win
a game on the road, it's the front page the
day today, right. Man Gino was a heck of a coach.
What's Tech done? By the way, a guy who is
an NFL coach today couldn't win at Tech when uh again,
(09:22):
if you actually take out the Kansas games, give us
that staff Cliff Kingsbury while at Texas Tech. Take out
the Kansas games thirteen and thirty five in the Big twelve,
and you can say, well, why take out the Kansas
because they were that bad? Right? So still nineteen and
thirty five. Leech was forty seven and thirty three in
the Big twelve when he was at Texas Tech. And
(09:42):
I think he won. He didn't He make a bowl
eleven straight years, ten straight years, ten for ten a
Texas Tech. I mean, Wow's And I guess the last
thing I'll say, how do we have Leeches? Um a
t s. Yeah. And his entire career, Mike leaches fifty
against the spread fifty five percent his last eight years
of Washington State. So with the Vegas report card, Leach
(10:05):
way way above average coach when it comes to disrupting
potentially the SEC. It's a big, big, big higher. It's
gonna be interesting to watch, and plus those games, if
you're stuck watching one of those games, it's gonna be
more interesting as it is, so any thoughts on Washington State.
I have the guy for Washington State. It's the Hawaii
(10:27):
head coach Nick Rolovich. Very peculiar. Are you predicting this
or you're hoping that the A D S listening? I
will make a prediction, and I'll offer you let's just
go fifty fifty of all the guys they could hire,
I'll say Nick Rolovich first the field bet. No, thanks, Okay,
I mean, listen, Here's this is a great, great, great,
(10:51):
great tip. It's a way of life actually for you
out there. If someone who knows a lot more about
something offers you a bet, it's one thing. If it
was just a general debate and a bet breaks out,
then you can think, yeah, he knows more. But I
got a good feel of this. But if someone walks
(11:11):
up to you and says, you see that sign that
says it's fifteen miles of the city limits, I think
it's really twelve. Don't bet because that guy dug that
sign up the night before, moved at three miles. Put
it back in the ground. That's what the gamblers used
to do. When Fezik about a year ago, was he
looked at Bran and goes, you know, I can bench
(11:32):
two hundred pounds and Brad goes, no way. They ended
up how much did you bet? And what did I do?
You stand back and said not half. Don't want any
part of that because Fezi, who is the dirtiest player
in the game, is the one proposing the bet. So
now you're proposing a beat. Are there even odds on
(11:54):
this yet? So you're making your own odds. That tells
me you get some inside info. Brad Powers national radio
co host reporting Who's gonna be the next washing predicting
Nick Rolovich Hawaii head coach, your new Washington State head coach?
That's the prediction. Well, first of all, that makes a
couple of cents, a couple of a couple. That makes
(12:16):
sense on a couple of points because Nick Rolovich and
Mike Leach have a relationship. Those guys get along, they're
both similar personalities, so I could see Leech maybe recommending
Rolovich is the guy to take over for him. So
I like Brad's bet there. If indeed the line does
come up, here's the other one in going back to
Mike Leach at Mississippi State. Bruce Feldman of Fox actually
had this on Twitter that the freshman quarterback Will Rogers,
(12:41):
who was there and went to Mississippi State after Joe
Moorehead was fired. He now gets to play in the
system that was literally built for him. His dad, Wyatt Rogers,
coached Gardner Minshew, and Mike Leach was the only Power
five coach besides Mississippi State to offer Will Rogers a scholarship.
So this makes a ton of sense for Mike Leach.
(13:01):
He gets to work with the quarterback that he also
recruited to come to Washington State. That's fascinating. And one
of the things I think we saw with Minshew is
the players that can excel as a quarterback in a
Leech system different than the players that are going to
excel another system. And what would you say is the
(13:22):
main characteristic that the court, other than an armor, doesn't
get tired. Yeah, very good point. Their quick decision making. Yeah,
And that's the thing. Leech's offense seems complicated. And uh,
my best friend's brother coached for many years or actually
two of his brother's coach with Leech at Texas Tech.
(13:42):
I was down there for a wedding one to Lubbic.
Not a lot going on down there. I can tell you.
But what I'll say is I like it though, but
what I'll say. What I'll say is that the the
enthusiasm around it's a fun program. You know. If anyone
(14:03):
that's a fan of Friday Night Lights, he did a
cameo on there. He's he wrote a book, uh something
with the sword Don't Take My Sword or something Leach did,
but just a different thinker, you know. And if you
want to see have some giggles, go to YouTube and
listen to a few of his press conferences. There's some
(14:24):
of his best lines because leeches uh has a very
eclectic intellect. But the offense is simple. It's it's almost
like what the Rams do where it seems complicated, but
there's really like three if thens for each receiver. That's
why they on short weeks, That's why, um they can
(14:47):
go no huddle so easily. There's really not a lot
of play calling. It's a lot of we got a
couple of options each individual player and based on what
the defense does, we know what we're gonna do. Does
that make sense exactly perfect? Is that how you understand it?
That's exactly how it is. When we come back, we're
gonna talk about again, this is Brad Powers making another
(15:11):
executive decision. Let's give him credit. Why don't you tease it? Well,
we have two player injuries in the NFL, and Vegas
is telling you that these two key players might not
be worth as much as you think. Brad Powers just
did it. Man. That's coming up next. He's r J. Bell.
That guy's Brad Powers, and I'm Jonas Knocks And this
is the pregame show you've always wanted right here on
(15:31):
Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart
Radio app. I'm r J. Bell, we are Straight out
of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knox's voice of you the Fan.
Coming up here in just a couple of moments, we
(15:52):
will have some market reactions to a couple of injury
updates in the NFL. Yeah, what does Vegas say? That's
always imported it in. Thanks for joining us today. We're
gonna be talking a little Green Bay Packers. How good
are they compared to last year? How good is Aaron
Rodgers in the offense compared to last year? We're on
(16:12):
five days a week on hundreds of FSR stations nationwide.
Also Fox Sports Radio dot Com, I Heart Radio, app,
Serious x AM, and anytime on podcast just search r
J bow and we've got an announcement here another station
hundreds plus one will call it. And I tell you
(16:35):
the crew at fs are hardest working. I mean you're
right there the building, Jonas Uh hard. I mean they're
they're grinding, the theil, the guys who are trying to
get more affiliate, I mean, everybody except for John Ramos.
Everybody here well, I mean listen, when you have two
last names like that, don't even question the guy Ramos, Ramos,
(16:59):
you know exactly, say who knows where he's been. We
want to welcome Fox Sports eight fifty and on the
FM dow and Virginia Beach. Thanks to Bob Sinclair and
Dave Morgan at the station for making it happen right
now here in Vegas on the strip fifty seven degrees
(17:21):
and the neon is flowing, So r J. We have
a couple of injury updates in the NFL. First off,
mark ingram running back for the Baltimore Ravens, return to
practice was limited. His status is questionable for Saturday's playoff game.
What has been the market market reaction to Ingram, who
is expected to play, Yes, and Jonas just took you know,
(17:45):
it was like Jonas said, you know something I want
to shine today. I want to step on Brad Powers.
I mean, you know, I wonder if he's a little
is there a little envy brew Well, we can delete
it from the podcast. I'll just reacudit dirty. Well, you
know that's the important parts. So Ingram, there has been
news and what was the source? And we we like
(18:05):
in Vegas, we like to give sources. Sources. Told Adam
Schefter from ESPN that even though not that sor oh okay,
Ingram is questionable on the injury report, he's likely to
play this week. Alright, So the market before this announcement,
the line in the game for Baltimore was Baltimore nine
(18:25):
and a half point favorite. Thanks for not jumping in there, jumps,
And then after the announcement line Baltimore nine and a
half point favorite. Hold on a second, let me do
a little math here. Uh huh, no change, no change.
I you know, I I I kind of thought, why
(18:47):
would mark Ingram be moving the line? It kind of
goes to show you once a guy gets a name,
guy's not moving the line. Now, it's nice to have
him if he plays, because you've got more depth and
all that stuff. Market though saying we don't give a care.
We got another injury update in the NFL. Will get
to in one moment. Do you want to let you know?
We are brought to you by Auto Zone. AutoZone is
(19:08):
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the zone. Auto Zone Adam feeling Vikings wide receiver market reaction.
That's pretty good, that's pretty he's listening up, this guy.
(19:30):
It's almost like it's two in the morning when he's really,
what is your shift? What is your shift on the week?
I don't know, eleven pm to three am Pacific time,
and then whatever the hell time that is in Alaska?
I don't know. Yeah, it's very late, very late, alright,
So feeling physic tomorrow, I'm sure he'll talk about it.
(19:51):
He ended up having what about almost a hundred thirty yards, right,
but now it looks like less chance of playing because
of what was the ankle entry yesterday and yesterday's practice
he got stitches. Now Adam feeling questionable. You've gotta wonder
about these guys that never are healthy. I mean, it's
(20:12):
one thing if you have one major. You know, Brady
blew out his knee. He was out for the you know,
I think it was that the first game or the
second game. It was okay and Castle came in. That
was a situation. Hey, Michael Jordan missed most of your
second year, broke his foot. But when you have an
ankle one day, your elbow the next, your paper machee
(20:35):
shoulder the next. I mean, and you know, it's a
good time. I'm gonna side with Ben mallor now I'm
not sure who. Ben Maller slips twenties two. I hear
for the Overnight show. I hear his promotions like it's
like half of the promotions are Ben Maller on the
station and the other half is everyone else. Have you
(20:57):
noticed that he deserves it's one of the one of
the No, no, no, I don't think he does. But
I actually like one of my first national hits it's
been ten years ago, was loon Tom Looney and Ben
Mallory used to do the weekend uh Saturday Sunday, you know,
afternoon stretch, and Ben was always very supportive. So I
(21:17):
like Ben. He made a good point though about the
Eagles and about Wentz. When there's a guy who misses
work a lot, and let's be candid, it's suspicious, right,
bloodshot eyes, you know, reports that he was seen in Reno,
(21:38):
you know, those kind of things, and it's a situation
where then he actually has a legitimate reason for missing.
The tolerance for it isn't great. It's like you've used
up us being tolerant of it when you were, you know,
telling us you were sick when you were hungover. Right,
(21:59):
that's an analogy at work. I think what we've had
with once is a lot of injuries. Now. I don't
know how many of them are tough Terry Bradshaw type
or Brett Farve type would have played though, I don't know.
I don't know how injury Proney is. I don't know
how much pain he's willing to take. It's probably more
(22:19):
than me. He's probably less injury prone than me. He
wants to take more pain than me. How's it compared
to the best athletes in the world who he's competing with.
And I think Mallard is right. Yeah, maybe the or not.
Maybe the concussion is in his fall, but you add
up all the other games he missed, this is a
trend now, whereas if he had missed half as many
(22:40):
games prior the concussion, here would have been hey breaks
of the game. All right. So I do agree with
Ben in that regard. And this feeling character seems to
be even worse when it comes to the idea that
I mean, has he does he even go three games
without getting hurt? You gotta wonder, But I believe, and
(23:03):
this is something physic talks about. The Vikings having all
their playmakers is vital because you just take one of
the key guys away. It seems like Cousins really suffers.
You know what we'll do for tomorrow, We will have Yeah,
let's do this tomorrow. Let's look at Cousins and the
(23:24):
Vikings with or without the two or three key playmakers,
and uh, you know, let's get the math on it.
My senses, they really struggle without feeling. Uh. The Vikings rival,
the Green Bay Packers, will be hosting the Seattle Seahawks
coming up this Sunday on Fox, and there is a
comparison to be made between the nineteen packers and last
(23:47):
year's packers. And I think this is pretty relevant considering
McCarthy hired with the Cowboys. The theory is, wait a minute,
cast off hired. Well, let's look at it. And it
also speaks to Brett Fire or Bret Fire also speaks
to Aaron Rodgers in that he really wanted McCarthy. Alt,
(24:10):
you brought in a guy with La Fleur. His experience
as a leader of men not not significant, His experience
on the defensive side not significant, right, He's this is
a glorified o C to play Kate. Aaron Rodgers, you
(24:31):
would think, for sure, for sure you would think the
offense gets better, right, because you know that he's not gonna.
I don't think La Fleur is doing an amazing job
with the defense. Now, the defense has played pretty well.
Hard to say it's the floor though, maybe maybe. So
let's look at some numbers. We're gonna talk about eighteen
(24:51):
and then nineteen, so it's gonna be in sequence starting
with last year. D v O A offense last year
and number seven this year, number eight eight passing this
year twelve. Last year, Oh I'm sorry, last year twelve,
this year eleven. So one slot better offense, dvl A
(25:13):
one slot better passing, and oh, by the way, running
one slot better last year three verses four And I
think about that, the third and fourth best running attacks
last year and this year. The Packers wouldn't think that,
wouldn't think that. And then you keep going, and again,
(25:33):
I love efficiency stats, but if you look at passing
yards a game to sixty four last year to thirty
three this year, you might say they don't need a
pass their leading, all right, that's fine. You look at
third down conversions last year thirty seven percent, this year
thirty six percent. So we could make a big deal
(25:56):
that last year seemed to be a smidge better in
almost every situation, but it doesn't really matter. What matters
is it's almost the same. And then, finally, though, the
one thing that is very different. Percentage of past plays
sixty seven percent last year, Packers passed this year. So
(26:19):
this team is running. Literally they lead the league, and
I'm not sure you want to lead the league. Percentage
passes thrown last year Green Bay number one, sixty, this
year number seventeen. So They've gone from throwing the most
passes to below average number of passes. So in a way,
(26:41):
though the stats even out, I gotta say, I kind
of like the idea that they're running the ball more.
And it feels like in the playoffs in January, in
the code, the ability to run the ball is vital, right,
So would you agree with me, Brad looking at these
(27:02):
numbers and last year and this year efficient efficiency is
about the same for the Packers offense, wouldn't you rather
this year's offense? Absolutely? I would. And you look at
the two of the better offenses in the NFL, is
you're very run heavy led by the best offense in
the NFL. Baltimore is a run heavy as any team,
Isn't it funny? How literally it's like quarterbacks are and
(27:25):
they still are king. But the idea that you can't
even draft a running back in the first round too
now running becoming. And I love the ev eb and
flows of the NFL because those defensive coordinators spend the
entire offseason trying to stop what work last year, and
that's just they iterate every year. The best football minds
(27:46):
there are. I'm gonna let Brad give us his very
best trend or handicapping factor in any of the NFL games.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. Straight
out of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio. Coming up
twelve minutes from now here on fs ARE, we will
have best Bet, your chance to make a little bit
(28:07):
of coin on a Thursday night. Do want to let
you know we are brought to you by Auto Zone.
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Get in the Zone. Auto Zone. I'm Jonas Knocks, Voice
of You the Fan. He's the Voice of Vegas. R
J Bell, Brad Powers and Studio. Do you want to
do the next read and take one of Jonas's just
(28:30):
to make up for it? I mean, listen, you're just
a gracious fellow, Brad. I mean, there's just no doubt
about it. The most important thing you could know this weekend.
In fact, in all of the playoffs in the NFL,
you can't bet every game, So ask yourself, what was
your average NFO sides in a given week, so sixteen
(28:54):
games max. Sometimes last with buys, I'd say the average
better even if he's a recreational batter, three or four sides,
so let's call it four. Four is one fourth of sixteen.
So every fourth game they're batting, now there's four games
(29:16):
this weekend one game. Now, it doesn't mean you can't
have to, but you better have zero some weeks because
if you are batting, every game can be all the
home teams in the Nationals and only away teams in
the American every game for the thousand dollar next. If
(29:36):
you do that, you're in trouble. So, Brad, we gave
you a smorges Borg, as they say, buffet as I
like to say, what is the number one factor in
any of the four NFL games? I want to talk about.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid. Andy read specifically off
a by in his entire career. We have a huge
sample size here twenty plus years going back to the
(30:00):
Philadelphia Eagles days, and in his career, Andy Reid covers
sixty eight percent of the time off of by exceeding expectations,
that being the vegas spread by five and a half
points per game. Now, how is it in the regular season?
How is it in the postseason? I do not know that. Okay,
I recall much better in the regular season, though still
(30:21):
pretty good in the postseason. I'm going by recollection. So
what we'll do tomorrow. We got a lot of things
to do tomorrow. Fazik and I have a couple of
cross fires. He's a huge underdog. We're gonna get the
Andy reid By information. But I agree with you, and
I also think this Bill O'Brien not considered a good coach.
(30:46):
I'm not saying I agree with it. I think he
probably doesn't get the proper credit. I mean, he's won
his division four out of five years. That's a rare thing.
A lot of teams haven't done that the entire century. Well,
you've did the research on this. Thirteen teams have never
done it in their history in the NFL. I mean,
I think about that thirt team. I think we went
(31:08):
back to the merger um, is that right? Yeah, so
we went back to Super Bowl four. I guess would
have been the first one. So yeah, but still we're
talking fifty years or whatever almost and thirteen teams have
never won their division four out of five years. Houston
is in the midst of doing that, and now they
(31:30):
just had a playoff win. But by the same token,
they've been outscored this season. The opponents of the Taxans
have more points than the Texans and they've been out
gained this season. Literally the opponents have more yards. It
sounds like an eight and eight team if they're lucky,
I get to hold Deshaun Watson stuff. Let's take did
(31:52):
have we looked you at at Watson and one score games?
I thought we did, actually because uh, you know, we'll
do that during the break, because you could say, well,
r J, what about Watson and one score games? Well,
we'll see, all right, But what we know is that
Russell Wilson, who has been amazing in one score games
this year, was three games below five hundred in his
(32:14):
career entering this year in one score games below five.
So Watson will see. But in general, whenever a team
is winning a lot of close games, that team is overrated.
It's all there is to it. Houston I think is overrated. Finally,
my total of the decade, now this is the decade
(32:36):
of the decade, so we're, you know what, eight days
in but I love, I do love this total. Tomorrow.
Phasik usually does the early pick at the end of
the first segment. He's getting bumped and we're gonna literally
second topic after the Vegas lead. Tomorrow, we'll have my
total of the decade. One of the four NFL games.
(32:59):
I'm feeling very very good. In fact, i'll tease it.
Andy Reid's involved. I'm not saying which game it is,
but Andy Reid is involved. When we come back, You've
got the best bet coming up. I have a best
bet college hoops tonight. Tonight College shoots, Brad Powers College
Hoops best bet, and then I'm going to tell you
(33:20):
what I believe the number one NFL factor of the
week is. That's coming up next to hes R J. Bell.
I'm Jonas knox Is at the pregame show You've always
wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio
has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch
all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com
and within the I Heart Radio app search f s
(33:43):
R to listen live. I'm R. J. Bell, we are
straight out of As and I'm Jonas Knock's voice of
you the Fan. We have a best bet on a
Thursday night, and I think this might be only the
second time, maybe the first, that we go to the
college basketball world to get it this season. Listen, this
is the way gambling is is on July four the
(34:05):
hot dog eating contest is often one of the bigger bets.
And it's like anything else where. If you have an
NFL game, that college game doesn't matter, right if somehow
they're playing on this new day. But if that NFL
game isn't there, that college game is getting everyone's attention.
It's human nature embedding whatever the top event is that day,
(34:27):
that's the event that gets disproportionate number of bets. Brad,
No one said you were squares, So I think you
like this baby. You got a pick tonight. Yeah, best
bet for me is tonight in college basketball, Oregon at
home minus three over Arizona. And it fits one of
my favorite handicapping philosophies this time of the year and
(34:48):
its strength of scheduled disparity. Why is it important because
these teams have now played a majority of their games
nonconference and now they're just getting into conference play and
this is the one time of year where you get
huge disparities and strength of schedule, and we have that
here on the surface, the teams look close. The line
(35:08):
says it's close. Oregon is a twelve and three, Arizona
is eleven and three. Not when you dive into the
strength of schedule, Oregon played they much tougher schedule, top
twenty five in terms of strength, Arizona not even in
the top one because of that value on the Ducks.
Best bet Oregon minus three. Check out the Big Brain,
(35:30):
good stuff, Brad Powers. Now, let's talk just a minute
or two about the college basketball season three point line.
There was an adjustment in the off season. What was it?
They moved to three point line back about a foot
and a half? Are j a foot and a half?
So like almost right? About eighteen inches sixteen point seven
five to be exactly all right, there you go. Now
(35:52):
we're talking all right back, Okay. Now, obviously less threes,
a smaller percentage of threes are going to be made
from a greater distance. The market Vegas attempted to estimate that.
Initially the market was wrong. Yeah, they didn't do a
good job because if you blindly bet the under first
(36:14):
two weeks of the college basketball regular season, you would
have hit fifty eight percent in every game, So first
two weeks percent over hundreds of gamesames think about that,
But Vegas doesn't sleep for long. They might listen, they
might sleep right, they might be a little off, but
(36:35):
he never sleep. But they don't sleep that long. They're
dumb though. I guess it's the batters are coming in.
There's a lot of dumb bookies out there. I mean,
right or wrong, you've been around totally. Oh my gosh,
I don't think they graduated high school. I'm the summer.
I'm just being honest. I mean, if you have to
read and write, I don't think they could have. That's funny.
(37:00):
But they did quickly adjust. So what happened to the
So the average total the first two weeks was and
what did it move to? One forty one and a half?
Was the average? So the first two weeks moved to
now one thirty nine. Since all right, they said, hey,
we're too high boom, and how's the over under been?
Actually the over it's hit, so just a smidge abuff
(37:21):
this all right? So this is Jonas. This is such
a great teaching moment. Is the idea that Betters had
an idea that hey, these totals are too high, you
bet you would have one and one big market other batters,
the bookmakers, they said, oh, let's bring these totals down.
(37:41):
They found that exact equilibrium point, and here we are
right around. So if you have a winning situation, you've
always got to keep an eye on the market because
if it's adjusting against you, you cannot win. The only
reason you're winning originally in this case was the line
was a couple of points too high. The total when
it came down huh no more, no more winning on
(38:05):
the under quickly? Are there odds people that are in
charge of the odds for specific sports, meaning that way
they won't get distracted by the NFL and they've got
too many things to focus on there. There's oddsmakers for
your college basketball, the NHL. Except yeah, So this is
this is fascinating because think of it like gas stations
in a city. There might be fifty gas stations in
(38:26):
any given day. When the new uh per barrel prices
come out, you might say, who's gonna put up the
price first? That's the world opener. So there's only a
handful of books that have the ambition to when I
put up that first number. A book like that. They
do specialize most of the books. They just sit back
(38:48):
and say, we don't got to figure it out. We'll
have three of the big boys put it up and
we'll just copy them. And you know, I'm not saying
that's wrong, but I'm saying the bookmakers who put up
the world opener, those are the bookmakers I respect. All Right.
I was talking about what really impressed a number. I
think that's not being discussed enough. And I think it's
(39:13):
how good San Francisco is at home. So when I
think about home field advantage didn't jump even this year
didn't jump up at me. The best point differential in
the entire NFL. Forty Niners at home. They outscored their
opponents in eight games by one hundred and two points.
(39:38):
So that's almost thirteen points a game, outscoring their opponents.
San France at home, San France home here. And remember
Cousins not good in all one o'clock games. And this
is a Saturday game, so you also have not only
the time adjustment. One less day for a man that
loves his routines. If you missed any of today's show,
(39:59):
you and check out the podcast at Fox sports radio
dot com. The odd couple is next here on FS
are we Are Straight out of Vegas back tomorrow for
a pit polos of football Friday at six pm Eastern Time,
right here on Fox Sports Radio
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. This is Straight out
of Vegas with the Voice of Vegas, your host, r
J Bow, collect the pregame show America has always wanted
(00:40):
from the veggest trip Ear's r J Bow. You heard it.
I'm r J Live from Las Vegas on two hundred
FSR stations across this great nation. It is Thursday, and
we got a lot of NFL to talk about. We've
(01:00):
got a National Championship game coming up not that far away.
Joined in studio one of the pros who know Brad
Powers physic on a study day, getting ready. We got
a couple of heads up crossfires on Friday planned, big
underdog physic, Big dog sports. Vettors listen for the money.
(01:22):
Sports fans listen to no more than their bodies. But
you can't have pros without Joe's. He's in l A,
He's Jones. Always good to be here, r J. And
we start on straight out of Vegas. Here. As we
look ahead, we inch closer to a three day weekend
in the world of football that includes two football games
in the NFL Divisional playoff games on Saturday, another two
(01:43):
on Sunday, and the National Championship Game in college football.
But as far as today goes, what is the Vegas lead?
None of those things. Now this is gonna surprise you,
so listen closely. Vegas lead. Mike Leach to Mississippi State
might be huge when it comes to the national champion
(02:07):
next year, year after next, couple years. Yes, and Yahoo
Sports was the first to report that Mike Leach formally
of Texas Tech and Washington State, is now the head
coach at Mississippi State, which makes the Egg Bowl next
year against Lane Kiffin that much more interesting, no doubt
about it. And listen all the college knowledge, Brad Powers,
(02:29):
that's probably the guy to ask why is it? And
this was one in the round table. You pushed Vegas leads,
you said, I said no, you said Vegas lead. I said, okay,
take it away. Yeah, And I am officially doubling down
our j on a bet you and I made about
a month ago and I said, believe it or not,
(02:50):
Nick Saban will never win another national championship at Alabama.
I am doubling down on that bet. Why, well, his path,
Nick Saban just got harder with today's announcement of Mike
Leach being hired in Mississippi State, and it got harder
even after we made that bet when Lane Kiffin was
hired to be the head coach at Old miss Lane
Kiffin to me, it's more Lane Kiffin. It's more about recruiting.
(03:12):
I think Lane Kiffin is good enough to take. So
where have we seen that? Oh we've seen it? Where
where a place? He's one two champion place games? Florida Atlantic. Yeah, okay,
so he recruits really well for Florida Atlantic. He did
a good job recruiting at s C in Tennessee. So
how how many? Uh? I mean, what was the big
win and what was the big bowl game? And those
(03:34):
for those teams? Uh? There there really wasn't one. Okay,
continue fair enough? Are j oh listen? I hear you.
I think it's a good conversation. But I here's what
I know. Any team in the SEC could have had
him last year, right, And what did they all say? Pass? Thanks?
(03:55):
No thanks? And then is it me? Was there a
bid war for his services this year? A little bit? Really? Well? No,
not among it like a major school. Who was the
other school? There was talks like Missouri might be interesting talks? Yeah? Okay,
So what I would say is this, when you have
(04:17):
the SEC, which is very good at picking every element
of their football. Coaches on down players, who to pay,
how much to pay, you know, all those things with
the players. They are right, you know, great at the SEC.
They're saying, you know Kiffin, Yeah he was a fine coordinator.
Maybe not Actually who knows, he doesn't. He shouldn't be
(04:40):
coaching an SEC school a team. It's been a how
long has it been since he was at Alabama? He
coached three years at Floor Atlantic three years ago, so
literally there was two or I mean three years so
year one everyone said no, and let's be candid, he
would have taken the job at New Mexico. Right. No,
(05:01):
he was Wyoming. No, he was making he was on
the beach. He's making a million a year. You sound,
you know, you sound like some of these normal talk
radio guys acting like they understand Lane Kiffen. You don't
think he hated being outside of the big boys. He
hated it, no doubt, not even in the Power five.
(05:23):
I mean, I don't know, maybe not Wyoming. Right, but well,
let's agree to this. Any Power five jobs, absolutely he
would have taken it. Northwestern, he would have taken it,
Maryland taken it so how many Power five schools are
So sixty five schools had a chance in year one
they said no, sixty five in year two, so now
(05:44):
we have a hundred and thirty no thank you, sixty
five and year three boom right in my head, no
thank you. And finally this year one out of all
those schools said yes. So out of uh to sixty,
about two sixty or so schools one said yes. But
(06:06):
we're supposed to be scared. Where do you think, Jonas?
I would not be scared, but I do. I do
like I do like the Hires because I do think
Lane Kiffin is is a good coach, but I don't
know that it's this, you know, going to shake up
the conference type coach, no doubt. And I do, though
agree with Brad. I'm r J. Bell. That was Jonas knocks.
(06:28):
Now we're gonna ask Brad Powers a question. I don't
agree with you. With Kivin, I very much agree with Leech. Yeah.
And here's the thing with Mike Leach. Is Mike Leach
ever gonna win a national championship? No, but he can
prevent a guy like Nick Saban from winning a national championship.
Why because of the quirkiness on Mike Leach's offense. It's
(06:50):
a headache for these teams to prepare. It's gonna be
unlike any other offense than any of these coaches have
seen in the SEC. And you know, the chances of
a Mississippi State beating in Alabama, you know that chance
might have been five ten percent in the past. Now
with Mike Leach there, not necessarily like he's gonna be
a great recruiter and have a bunch of better players.
But because the quirkiness of the offense, the chances of
(07:12):
the Mississippi State beating in Alabama now, I'd argue have
doubled r J because of the quirkiness. And I also
think it's because of the high variance style play. So
let's that sounds kind of fancy, but let's think about
Wisconsin football. Low variants, they're best game, they're worst game,
(07:32):
not gonna be that far apart why they don't throw
the ball a lot. What creates variants turnovers, And I
would make the case that they're typically pretty motivated. You
don't see the big peaks and valleys. Now with a
team like or with an offense like Leeches offense, it's
(07:53):
not about motivation as much it's about this offense can
do shockingly well in a given situation. It might be
because of the way the other teams playing it. It
might just be the way the ball bounces that day.
So I do agree with you. When they are a
big dog, when Leech's team is a big dog, they've
(08:13):
got a better chance than most any other team in
the country when they're a big dog. And the prep time,
as you said, regardless of the Alabama's beat Mississippi State. Now,
the prep time in the off season leading up, you know,
the camps all the way up to the week of
the game. They can't, you know, be peeking ahead to
(08:33):
the l s U game or whatever. I think it's
a big deal. And I'm also anxious, anxious to see
Leech in action. If you go back to Texas Tech.
This is what I like to do. When a guy leaves.
What happens? All right? So, Kansas University, Mark Mangino, the
Orange Bowl win, Kansas football won the Orange Ball? What
(08:58):
eleven years ago? And what's happened since? When they win
a game on the road, it's the front page the
day today, right. Man Gino was a heck of a coach.
What's Tech done? By the way, a guy who is
an NFL coach today couldn't win at Tech when uh again,
(09:22):
if you actually take out the Kansas games, give us
that staff Cliff Kingsbury while at Texas Tech. Take out
the Kansas games thirteen and thirty five in the Big twelve,
and you can say, well, why take out the Kansas
because they were that bad? Right? So still nineteen and
thirty five. Leech was forty seven and thirty three in
the Big twelve when he was at Texas Tech. And
(09:42):
I think he won. He didn't He make a bowl
eleven straight years, ten straight years, ten for ten a
Texas Tech. I mean, Wow's And I guess the last
thing I'll say, how do we have Leeches? Um a
t s. Yeah. And his entire career, Mike leaches fifty
against the spread fifty five percent his last eight years
of Washington State. So with the Vegas report card, Leach
(10:05):
way way above average coach when it comes to disrupting
potentially the SEC. It's a big, big, big higher. It's
gonna be interesting to watch, and plus those games, if
you're stuck watching one of those games, it's gonna be
more interesting as it is, so any thoughts on Washington State.
I have the guy for Washington State. It's the Hawaii
(10:27):
head coach Nick Rolovich. Very peculiar. Are you predicting this
or you're hoping that the A D S listening? I
will make a prediction, and I'll offer you let's just
go fifty fifty of all the guys they could hire,
I'll say Nick Rolovich first the field bet. No, thanks, Okay,
I mean, listen, Here's this is a great, great, great,
(10:51):
great tip. It's a way of life actually for you
out there. If someone who knows a lot more about
something offers you a bet, it's one thing. If it
was just a general debate and a bet breaks out,
then you can think, yeah, he knows more. But I
got a good feel of this. But if someone walks
(11:11):
up to you and says, you see that sign that
says it's fifteen miles of the city limits, I think
it's really twelve. Don't bet because that guy dug that
sign up the night before, moved at three miles. Put
it back in the ground. That's what the gamblers used
to do. When Fezik about a year ago, was he
looked at Bran and goes, you know, I can bench
(11:32):
two hundred pounds and Brad goes, no way. They ended
up how much did you bet? And what did I do?
You stand back and said not half. Don't want any
part of that because Fezi, who is the dirtiest player
in the game, is the one proposing the bet. So
now you're proposing a beat. Are there even odds on
(11:54):
this yet? So you're making your own odds. That tells
me you get some inside info. Brad Powers national radio
co host reporting Who's gonna be the next washing predicting
Nick Rolovich Hawaii head coach, your new Washington State head coach?
That's the prediction. Well, first of all, that makes a
couple of cents, a couple of a couple. That makes
(12:16):
sense on a couple of points because Nick Rolovich and
Mike Leach have a relationship. Those guys get along, they're
both similar personalities, so I could see Leech maybe recommending
Rolovich is the guy to take over for him. So
I like Brad's bet there. If indeed the line does
come up, here's the other one in going back to
Mike Leach at Mississippi State. Bruce Feldman of Fox actually
had this on Twitter that the freshman quarterback Will Rogers,
(12:41):
who was there and went to Mississippi State after Joe
Moorehead was fired. He now gets to play in the
system that was literally built for him. His dad, Wyatt Rogers,
coached Gardner Minshew, and Mike Leach was the only Power
five coach besides Mississippi State to offer Will Rogers a scholarship.
So this makes a ton of sense for Mike Leach.
(13:01):
He gets to work with the quarterback that he also
recruited to come to Washington State. That's fascinating. And one
of the things I think we saw with Minshew is
the players that can excel as a quarterback in a
Leech system different than the players that are going to
excel another system. And what would you say is the
(13:22):
main characteristic that the court, other than an armor, doesn't
get tired. Yeah, very good point. Their quick decision making. Yeah,
And that's the thing. Leech's offense seems complicated. And uh,
my best friend's brother coached for many years or actually
two of his brother's coach with Leech at Texas Tech.
(13:42):
I was down there for a wedding one to Lubbic.
Not a lot going on down there. I can tell you.
But what I'll say is I like it though, but
what I'll say. What I'll say is that the the
enthusiasm around it's a fun program. You know. If anyone
(14:03):
that's a fan of Friday Night Lights, he did a
cameo on there. He's he wrote a book, uh something
with the sword Don't Take My Sword or something Leach did,
but just a different thinker, you know. And if you
want to see have some giggles, go to YouTube and
listen to a few of his press conferences. There's some
(14:24):
of his best lines because leeches uh has a very
eclectic intellect. But the offense is simple. It's it's almost
like what the Rams do where it seems complicated, but
there's really like three if thens for each receiver. That's
why they on short weeks, That's why, um they can
(14:47):
go no huddle so easily. There's really not a lot
of play calling. It's a lot of we got a
couple of options each individual player and based on what
the defense does, we know what we're gonna do. Does
that make sense exactly perfect? Is that how you understand it?
That's exactly how it is. When we come back, we're
gonna talk about again, this is Brad Powers making another
(15:11):
executive decision. Let's give him credit. Why don't you tease it? Well,
we have two player injuries in the NFL, and Vegas
is telling you that these two key players might not
be worth as much as you think. Brad Powers just
did it. Man. That's coming up next. He's r J. Bell.
That guy's Brad Powers, and I'm Jonas Knocks And this
is the pregame show you've always wanted right here on
(15:31):
Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart
Radio app. I'm r J. Bell, we are Straight out
of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knox's voice of you the Fan.
Coming up here in just a couple of moments, we
(15:52):
will have some market reactions to a couple of injury
updates in the NFL. Yeah, what does Vegas say? That's
always imported it in. Thanks for joining us today. We're
gonna be talking a little Green Bay Packers. How good
are they compared to last year? How good is Aaron
Rodgers in the offense compared to last year? We're on
(16:12):
five days a week on hundreds of FSR stations nationwide.
Also Fox Sports Radio dot Com, I Heart Radio, app,
Serious x AM, and anytime on podcast just search r
J bow and we've got an announcement here another station
hundreds plus one will call it. And I tell you
(16:35):
the crew at fs are hardest working. I mean you're
right there the building, Jonas Uh hard. I mean they're
they're grinding, the theil, the guys who are trying to
get more affiliate, I mean, everybody except for John Ramos.
Everybody here well, I mean listen, when you have two
last names like that, don't even question the guy Ramos, Ramos,
(16:59):
you know exactly, say who knows where he's been. We
want to welcome Fox Sports eight fifty and on the
FM dow and Virginia Beach. Thanks to Bob Sinclair and
Dave Morgan at the station for making it happen right
now here in Vegas on the strip fifty seven degrees
(17:21):
and the neon is flowing, So r J. We have
a couple of injury updates in the NFL. First off,
mark ingram running back for the Baltimore Ravens, return to
practice was limited. His status is questionable for Saturday's playoff game.
What has been the market market reaction to Ingram, who
is expected to play, Yes, and Jonas just took you know,
(17:45):
it was like Jonas said, you know something I want
to shine today. I want to step on Brad Powers.
I mean, you know, I wonder if he's a little
is there a little envy brew Well, we can delete
it from the podcast. I'll just reacudit dirty. Well, you
know that's the important parts. So Ingram, there has been
news and what was the source? And we we like
(18:05):
in Vegas, we like to give sources. Sources. Told Adam
Schefter from ESPN that even though not that sor oh okay,
Ingram is questionable on the injury report, he's likely to
play this week. Alright, So the market before this announcement,
the line in the game for Baltimore was Baltimore nine
(18:25):
and a half point favorite. Thanks for not jumping in there, jumps,
And then after the announcement line Baltimore nine and a
half point favorite. Hold on a second, let me do
a little math here. Uh huh, no change, no change.
I you know, I I I kind of thought, why
(18:47):
would mark Ingram be moving the line? It kind of
goes to show you once a guy gets a name,
guy's not moving the line. Now, it's nice to have
him if he plays, because you've got more depth and
all that stuff. Market though saying we don't give a care.
We got another injury update in the NFL. Will get
to in one moment. Do you want to let you know?
We are brought to you by Auto Zone. AutoZone is
(19:08):
more ways for you to get what you need when
you need it. With their free same day store pickup,
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the zone. Auto Zone Adam feeling Vikings wide receiver market reaction.
That's pretty good, that's pretty he's listening up, this guy.
(19:30):
It's almost like it's two in the morning when he's really,
what is your shift? What is your shift on the week?
I don't know, eleven pm to three am Pacific time,
and then whatever the hell time that is in Alaska?
I don't know. Yeah, it's very late, very late, alright,
So feeling physic tomorrow, I'm sure he'll talk about it.
(19:51):
He ended up having what about almost a hundred thirty yards, right,
but now it looks like less chance of playing because
of what was the ankle entry yesterday and yesterday's practice
he got stitches. Now Adam feeling questionable. You've gotta wonder
about these guys that never are healthy. I mean, it's
(20:12):
one thing if you have one major. You know, Brady
blew out his knee. He was out for the you know,
I think it was that the first game or the
second game. It was okay and Castle came in. That
was a situation. Hey, Michael Jordan missed most of your
second year, broke his foot. But when you have an
ankle one day, your elbow the next, your paper machee
(20:35):
shoulder the next. I mean, and you know, it's a
good time. I'm gonna side with Ben mallor now I'm
not sure who. Ben Maller slips twenties two. I hear
for the Overnight show. I hear his promotions like it's
like half of the promotions are Ben Maller on the
station and the other half is everyone else. Have you
(20:57):
noticed that he deserves it's one of the one of
the No, no, no, I don't think he does. But
I actually like one of my first national hits it's
been ten years ago, was loon Tom Looney and Ben
Mallory used to do the weekend uh Saturday Sunday, you know,
afternoon stretch, and Ben was always very supportive. So I
(21:17):
like Ben. He made a good point though about the
Eagles and about Wentz. When there's a guy who misses
work a lot, and let's be candid, it's suspicious, right,
bloodshot eyes, you know, reports that he was seen in Reno,
(21:38):
you know, those kind of things, and it's a situation
where then he actually has a legitimate reason for missing.
The tolerance for it isn't great. It's like you've used
up us being tolerant of it when you were, you know,
telling us you were sick when you were hungover. Right,
(21:59):
that's an analogy at work. I think what we've had
with once is a lot of injuries. Now. I don't
know how many of them are tough Terry Bradshaw type
or Brett Farve type would have played though, I don't know.
I don't know how injury Proney is. I don't know
how much pain he's willing to take. It's probably more
(22:19):
than me. He's probably less injury prone than me. He
wants to take more pain than me. How's it compared
to the best athletes in the world who he's competing with.
And I think Mallard is right. Yeah, maybe the or not.
Maybe the concussion is in his fall, but you add
up all the other games he missed, this is a
trend now, whereas if he had missed half as many
(22:40):
games prior the concussion, here would have been hey breaks
of the game. All right. So I do agree with
Ben in that regard. And this feeling character seems to
be even worse when it comes to the idea that
I mean, has he does he even go three games
without getting hurt? You gotta wonder, But I believe, and
(23:03):
this is something physic talks about. The Vikings having all
their playmakers is vital because you just take one of
the key guys away. It seems like Cousins really suffers.
You know what we'll do for tomorrow, We will have Yeah,
let's do this tomorrow. Let's look at Cousins and the
(23:24):
Vikings with or without the two or three key playmakers,
and uh, you know, let's get the math on it.
My senses, they really struggle without feeling. Uh. The Vikings rival,
the Green Bay Packers, will be hosting the Seattle Seahawks
coming up this Sunday on Fox, and there is a
comparison to be made between the nineteen packers and last
(23:47):
year's packers. And I think this is pretty relevant considering
McCarthy hired with the Cowboys. The theory is, wait a minute,
cast off hired. Well, let's look at it. And it
also speaks to Brett Fire or Bret Fire also speaks
to Aaron Rodgers in that he really wanted McCarthy. Alt,
(24:10):
you brought in a guy with La Fleur. His experience
as a leader of men not not significant, His experience
on the defensive side not significant, right, He's this is
a glorified o C to play Kate. Aaron Rodgers, you
(24:31):
would think, for sure, for sure you would think the
offense gets better, right, because you know that he's not gonna.
I don't think La Fleur is doing an amazing job
with the defense. Now, the defense has played pretty well.
Hard to say it's the floor though, maybe maybe. So
let's look at some numbers. We're gonna talk about eighteen
(24:51):
and then nineteen, so it's gonna be in sequence starting
with last year. D v O A offense last year
and number seven this year, number eight eight passing this
year twelve. Last year, Oh I'm sorry, last year twelve,
this year eleven. So one slot better offense, dvl A
(25:13):
one slot better passing, and oh, by the way, running
one slot better last year three verses four And I
think about that, the third and fourth best running attacks
last year and this year. The Packers wouldn't think that,
wouldn't think that. And then you keep going, and again,
(25:33):
I love efficiency stats, but if you look at passing
yards a game to sixty four last year to thirty
three this year, you might say they don't need a
pass their leading, all right, that's fine. You look at
third down conversions last year thirty seven percent, this year
thirty six percent. So we could make a big deal
(25:56):
that last year seemed to be a smidge better in
almost every situation, but it doesn't really matter. What matters
is it's almost the same. And then, finally, though, the
one thing that is very different. Percentage of past plays
sixty seven percent last year, Packers passed this year. So
(26:19):
this team is running. Literally they lead the league, and
I'm not sure you want to lead the league. Percentage
passes thrown last year Green Bay number one, sixty, this
year number seventeen. So They've gone from throwing the most
passes to below average number of passes. So in a way,
(26:41):
though the stats even out, I gotta say, I kind
of like the idea that they're running the ball more.
And it feels like in the playoffs in January, in
the code, the ability to run the ball is vital, right,
So would you agree with me, Brad looking at these
(27:02):
numbers and last year and this year efficient efficiency is
about the same for the Packers offense, wouldn't you rather
this year's offense? Absolutely? I would. And you look at
the two of the better offenses in the NFL, is
you're very run heavy led by the best offense in
the NFL. Baltimore is a run heavy as any team,
Isn't it funny? How literally it's like quarterbacks are and
(27:25):
they still are king. But the idea that you can't
even draft a running back in the first round too
now running becoming. And I love the ev eb and
flows of the NFL because those defensive coordinators spend the
entire offseason trying to stop what work last year, and
that's just they iterate every year. The best football minds
(27:46):
there are. I'm gonna let Brad give us his very
best trend or handicapping factor in any of the NFL games.
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. Straight
out of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio. Coming up
twelve minutes from now here on fs ARE, we will
have best Bet, your chance to make a little bit
(28:07):
of coin on a Thursday night. Do want to let
you know we are brought to you by Auto Zone.
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Get in the Zone. Auto Zone. I'm Jonas Knocks, Voice
of You the Fan. He's the Voice of Vegas. R
J Bell, Brad Powers and Studio. Do you want to
do the next read and take one of Jonas's just
(28:30):
to make up for it? I mean, listen, you're just
a gracious fellow, Brad. I mean, there's just no doubt
about it. The most important thing you could know this weekend.
In fact, in all of the playoffs in the NFL,
you can't bet every game, So ask yourself, what was
your average NFO sides in a given week, so sixteen
(28:54):
games max. Sometimes last with buys, I'd say the average
better even if he's a recreational batter, three or four sides,
so let's call it four. Four is one fourth of sixteen.
So every fourth game they're batting, now there's four games
(29:16):
this weekend one game. Now, it doesn't mean you can't
have to, but you better have zero some weeks because
if you are batting, every game can be all the
home teams in the Nationals and only away teams in
the American every game for the thousand dollar next. If
(29:36):
you do that, you're in trouble. So, Brad, we gave
you a smorges Borg, as they say, buffet as I
like to say, what is the number one factor in
any of the four NFL games? I want to talk about.
Kansas City head coach Andy Reid. Andy read specifically off
a by in his entire career. We have a huge
sample size here twenty plus years going back to the
(30:00):
Philadelphia Eagles days, and in his career, Andy Reid covers
sixty eight percent of the time off of by exceeding expectations,
that being the vegas spread by five and a half
points per game. Now, how is it in the regular season?
How is it in the postseason? I do not know that. Okay,
I recall much better in the regular season, though still
(30:21):
pretty good in the postseason. I'm going by recollection. So
what we'll do tomorrow. We got a lot of things
to do tomorrow. Fazik and I have a couple of
cross fires. He's a huge underdog. We're gonna get the
Andy reid By information. But I agree with you, and
I also think this Bill O'Brien not considered a good coach.
(30:46):
I'm not saying I agree with it. I think he
probably doesn't get the proper credit. I mean, he's won
his division four out of five years. That's a rare thing.
A lot of teams haven't done that the entire century. Well,
you've did the research on this. Thirteen teams have never
done it in their history in the NFL. I mean,
I think about that thirt team. I think we went
(31:08):
back to the merger um, is that right? Yeah, so
we went back to Super Bowl four. I guess would
have been the first one. So yeah, but still we're
talking fifty years or whatever almost and thirteen teams have
never won their division four out of five years. Houston
is in the midst of doing that, and now they
(31:30):
just had a playoff win. But by the same token,
they've been outscored this season. The opponents of the Taxans
have more points than the Texans and they've been out
gained this season. Literally the opponents have more yards. It
sounds like an eight and eight team if they're lucky,
I get to hold Deshaun Watson stuff. Let's take did
(31:52):
have we looked you at at Watson and one score games?
I thought we did, actually because uh, you know, we'll
do that during the break, because you could say, well,
r J, what about Watson and one score games? Well,
we'll see, all right, But what we know is that
Russell Wilson, who has been amazing in one score games
this year, was three games below five hundred in his
(32:14):
career entering this year in one score games below five.
So Watson will see. But in general, whenever a team
is winning a lot of close games, that team is overrated.
It's all there is to it. Houston I think is overrated. Finally,
my total of the decade, now this is the decade
(32:36):
of the decade, so we're, you know what, eight days
in but I love, I do love this total. Tomorrow.
Phasik usually does the early pick at the end of
the first segment. He's getting bumped and we're gonna literally
second topic after the Vegas lead. Tomorrow, we'll have my
total of the decade. One of the four NFL games.
(32:59):
I'm feeling very very good. In fact, i'll tease it.
Andy Reid's involved. I'm not saying which game it is,
but Andy Reid is involved. When we come back, You've
got the best bet coming up. I have a best
bet college hoops tonight. Tonight College shoots, Brad Powers College
Hoops best bet, and then I'm going to tell you
(33:20):
what I believe the number one NFL factor of the
week is. That's coming up next to hes R J. Bell.
I'm Jonas knox Is at the pregame show You've always
wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio
has the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch
all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com
and within the I Heart Radio app search f s
(33:43):
R to listen live. I'm R. J. Bell, we are
straight out of As and I'm Jonas Knock's voice of
you the Fan. We have a best bet on a
Thursday night, and I think this might be only the
second time, maybe the first, that we go to the
college basketball world to get it this season. Listen, this
is the way gambling is is on July four the
(34:05):
hot dog eating contest is often one of the bigger bets.
And it's like anything else where. If you have an
NFL game, that college game doesn't matter, right if somehow
they're playing on this new day. But if that NFL
game isn't there, that college game is getting everyone's attention.
It's human nature embedding whatever the top event is that day,
(34:27):
that's the event that gets disproportionate number of bets. Brad,
No one said you were squares, So I think you
like this baby. You got a pick tonight. Yeah, best
bet for me is tonight in college basketball, Oregon at
home minus three over Arizona. And it fits one of
my favorite handicapping philosophies this time of the year and
(34:48):
its strength of scheduled disparity. Why is it important because
these teams have now played a majority of their games
nonconference and now they're just getting into conference play and
this is the one time of year where you get
huge disparities and strength of schedule, and we have that
here on the surface, the teams look close. The line
(35:08):
says it's close. Oregon is a twelve and three, Arizona
is eleven and three. Not when you dive into the
strength of schedule, Oregon played they much tougher schedule, top
twenty five in terms of strength, Arizona not even in
the top one because of that value on the Ducks.
Best bet Oregon minus three. Check out the Big Brain,
(35:30):
good stuff, Brad Powers. Now, let's talk just a minute
or two about the college basketball season three point line.
There was an adjustment in the off season. What was it?
They moved to three point line back about a foot
and a half? Are j a foot and a half?
So like almost right? About eighteen inches sixteen point seven
five to be exactly all right, there you go. Now
(35:52):
we're talking all right back, Okay. Now, obviously less threes,
a smaller percentage of threes are going to be made
from a greater distance. The market Vegas attempted to estimate that.
Initially the market was wrong. Yeah, they didn't do a
good job because if you blindly bet the under first
(36:14):
two weeks of the college basketball regular season, you would
have hit fifty eight percent in every game, So first
two weeks percent over hundreds of gamesames think about that,
But Vegas doesn't sleep for long. They might listen, they
might sleep right, they might be a little off, but
(36:35):
he never sleep. But they don't sleep that long. They're
dumb though. I guess it's the batters are coming in.
There's a lot of dumb bookies out there. I mean,
right or wrong, you've been around totally. Oh my gosh,
I don't think they graduated high school. I'm the summer.
I'm just being honest. I mean, if you have to
read and write, I don't think they could have. That's funny.
(37:00):
But they did quickly adjust. So what happened to the
So the average total the first two weeks was and
what did it move to? One forty one and a half?
Was the average? So the first two weeks moved to
now one thirty nine. Since all right, they said, hey,
we're too high boom, and how's the over under been?
Actually the over it's hit, so just a smidge abuff
(37:21):
this all right? So this is Jonas. This is such
a great teaching moment. Is the idea that Betters had
an idea that hey, these totals are too high, you
bet you would have one and one big market other batters,
the bookmakers, they said, oh, let's bring these totals down.
(37:41):
They found that exact equilibrium point, and here we are
right around. So if you have a winning situation, you've
always got to keep an eye on the market because
if it's adjusting against you, you cannot win. The only
reason you're winning originally in this case was the line
was a couple of points too high. The total when
it came down huh no more, no more winning on
(38:05):
the under quickly? Are there odds people that are in
charge of the odds for specific sports, meaning that way
they won't get distracted by the NFL and they've got
too many things to focus on there. There's oddsmakers for
your college basketball, the NHL. Except yeah, So this is
this is fascinating because think of it like gas stations
in a city. There might be fifty gas stations in
(38:26):
any given day. When the new uh per barrel prices
come out, you might say, who's gonna put up the
price first? That's the world opener. So there's only a
handful of books that have the ambition to when I
put up that first number. A book like that. They
do specialize most of the books. They just sit back
(38:48):
and say, we don't got to figure it out. We'll
have three of the big boys put it up and
we'll just copy them. And you know, I'm not saying
that's wrong, but I'm saying the bookmakers who put up
the world opener, those are the bookmakers I respect. All Right.
I was talking about what really impressed a number. I
think that's not being discussed enough. And I think it's
(39:13):
how good San Francisco is at home. So when I
think about home field advantage didn't jump even this year
didn't jump up at me. The best point differential in
the entire NFL. Forty Niners at home. They outscored their
opponents in eight games by one hundred and two points.
(39:38):
So that's almost thirteen points a game, outscoring their opponents.
San France at home, San France home here. And remember
Cousins not good in all one o'clock games. And this
is a Saturday game, so you also have not only
the time adjustment. One less day for a man that
loves his routines. If you missed any of today's show,
(39:59):
you and check out the podcast at Fox sports radio
dot com. The odd couple is next here on FS
are we Are Straight out of Vegas back tomorrow for
a pit polos of football Friday at six pm Eastern Time,
right here on Fox Sports Radio
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