November 30, 2018 • 41 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas, RJ Bell and the guys give a rapid fire handicap on all of the weekends NFL games during Wisest Wise Guy Wisdom. The sharps give you the biggest takeaways from the Cowboys huge upset over the Saints. Colin Cowherd's bonus pick six is back again and the guys break down the conference championships in college football.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
How much better can you do? Then Fez wins for
the country and I make money. Even though I was wrong,
I was ready. I was waiting for Steve Zik to
do the old whole Cogan Cup as ear listen to
the crowd wave him on and there you were with
a low blow with a steel folding chair and waving
right in his face. You're listening to Fox Sports. You
(00:22):
heard it. I'm r J Live Coast to coast six
o'clock eastern, three o'clock here in Vegas, an action packed
Friday hour for you. It's Pick Paluza picks on all
the biggest games, NFL, college, etcetera. And a new segment
(00:42):
recently last month or so. People love wisest wise guy wisdom.
In each NFL game, we give you one factor you
cannot watch or bet the game without if you want
to truly be knowledgeable. Speaking of knowledge, we're joined in
student udio by the pros who know Steve Ezik, NFL
(01:04):
expert and with all the college knowledge Brad powers. Sports
betters listen for the money, sports fans listen to know
more than their buddies. Here's my personal promise. We will
deliver the Vegas truth to you, But you can't have
pros without Joe's here. He is Joe, and it's Knox.
(01:25):
Always good to be here. R J. On a Football
Friday and straight out of Vegas comes to you Alive
from the Geico Fox Sports Radio studios, where fifteen minutes
could save you fifteen per cent or more on car insurance.
Visit Geico dot com for a free rate quote. We
start in the NFL Week thirteen kicked off Thursday night
in Dallas and saw the Cowboys upset the Saints thirteen
(01:47):
to ten, snapping the Saints ten game winning streak. R J.
What did Vegas make it? The Cowboys big win? Well, Vegas,
if you're speaking of the bookmakers, was happy because of
the bets on the Saints, the cash on the Saints.
Why they had covered against the spread nine straight games.
(02:10):
The Saints, if they had covered, would have been the
first team since two two have covered tenant a row.
Did not happen, the fifth team in a row to
fail on that tenth game, So ninth straight a TS
covers in the tenth game, now oh and five against
(02:31):
the spread since ninety two? Why those teams get expensive
and the Saints and FEZ you talked about it. You
loved the game, You love the Cowboys. Your followers cashed.
You cashed big time straight out of Vegas. Listeners cashed
if they listen to you. Now, to me, though, the
(02:53):
handicap you had was, oh, the line should be three
and a half the Saints, but seven and a half value.
But even if the line was three and a half,
the right line in your mind, Dallas succeeded even those expectations.
What happened in the game. What is our takeaway, Steve?
(03:13):
It's a surging Dallas defense r J that frankly, Drew
Brees felt uncomfortable the entire game, especially at the start
of the game. He started, oh for four of the
first three Saints drives, only one first down. Kudos to
that Dallas defense, and kudos to you because even weeks
ago you had a lot of optimists. Some would say,
(03:34):
remember on Seinfeld where Cramer goes he's a cock eyed optimist.
Some would say you were a cock eyed when it
came to your love of the Cowboys defense. Now though
it looks like you have we're prescient, as the high
i Q people say, seeing the future right now, where
(03:54):
do you rank Dallas's defense one to thirty two. I
have Dallas at number ten. They've cracked the top ten.
Number ten. Boy, Colin onto Her today was saying the
best front seven in the NFL better than the Bears Dallas. Boy,
that seems way optimistic, m But I agree with you.
(04:20):
Statistically the Dallas defense about ten. I think they're better
than that. And here's my theory. Let me know what
you think. The trend line on this team is steeper
upwards than the typical good defense. They're getting better at
a faster pace. Why because the key players are young. Right,
(04:45):
So we've got a rookie the seven on seven phenomen
with Vander esh and he's getting better and better in
front of our eyes, right and on. If you look
at another key player, Jalen Smith, second year player, but
Jalen Smith was really hurt at the end of his
college career. So now you could make the case the
(05:09):
first year he's fully healthy back. But even if it's
just a second year, he's on a learning curve. So
I would make the case. There's no if you say,
take the two best first or second year players on
defense off each team. So just go to each team
and say the only universe of defensive players were considering
(05:29):
his first or second year. I would make the case
Dallas is two guys, two youngsters contribute more to their
defense and any other first or second year tandem. Does
that sound right? Brad, you're the college guy. You know
the youngsters in the NFL very well. What do you think? Yeah?
I don't. I couldn't disagree with that whatsoever. So if
(05:51):
you have an especially young defense, it feels like throughout
that second year for Smith and first year for the rookie,
you're gonna get a trend line. They're gonna be so
much better in week thirteen, let's say, than week seven
if you look at the stats, though, even the algorithms
that wait the more recent games more, I don't think
(06:13):
it's waiting the more recent games enough thoughts. Yeah, I
agree with you. The advanced analytics had Dallas d v
o A on defense at number fourteen. That will probably
get upgraded to twelve with this good performance. But I
really think you can make a case with that trend
line argument currently that they're cracking the top ten. Absolutely,
and Brad, an example that is college basketball straight out
(06:34):
of Vegas is twelve months a year, fifty two weeks
a year. Probably in July, I'll be gone for a
little bit, but you know he'll move on straight out
of Vegas without r J. Isn't quite the same, but
it's still be here. We'll be talking though in February
more than once. Oh, this team, if you just look
(06:55):
at their record, it's deceiving in college basketball because they
have three freshman, once sophomore, and they are so much
better today than they were in December. Right, that's a concept. Kentucky,
for example, is better at the end of the year
almost every year, absolutely, And I think that that dallas
Is defense with the youngsters is similar to that. The
(07:18):
trend line up is steep. I still think durability, guys,
has to be an issue with Jalen Smith. His knee
injury that he suffered in the Fiesta Bowl was so bad.
There was nerve damage, multiple ligaments involved. The fact that
he's gotten to this point he looks fantastic, but I
would just be cautious as to being able to rely
on those two staying healthy together for a decade. I
(07:38):
think it's a great point, but who's betting the next decade? Right?
If you're a fan, I think Jonas is right speaking
for the fans. But even next week, I'm betting right now,
plus percent of NFL bets are about the upcoming games.
You could bet maybe who's going to make the playoffs.
(07:58):
You could bet super Bowl odds, but that's less than
five percent. Now before the season, when you're betting season
long over underwin totals, who's gonna win divisions, It's very
important to think of durability fast. I've heard you in
multiple season long handicaps before the season starts saying, oh,
I think this team will be mighty good in September.
(08:21):
They're brittle, though they're old. I think they're gonna fade late.
That you consider that with your season long bats. Yeah,
back in August, I'm a long term trader thinking about
the entire season. Now I'm a short term trader. Seven
day window. R J. Steve Faza right there, good stuff.
I'm r J. Bell, straight out of Vegas. All right, Steve, listen,
I'm tough, tough on you, tough on Brad, tough love. Well, yeah,
(08:45):
tough light. We'll say tough light. But but I don't
even say like I like you, like you, but you know,
but here's a little wonder years. But here's what I'll say.
You've got people feeling sorry for you now with these
people don't understand is I'm doing it for them. When
I'm hard on physic it's because I am the stand
(09:08):
in for you, the listener. Because let's be candid, there's
other shows that try to do sports betting. They're all
smacking each other on the back, saying how smart each other.
And sometimes that's justified, but sometimes it's like, what are
you talking about, Fez. Sometimes you need this and everywhere
in between. And I am genuine about that because if
(09:30):
I am silent when I disagree, then I'm complicit and
what you said, and if I don't agree, I'm not
going to be complicit. And I hope the listener, I
hope you appreciate that out there, because that's my job
is to keep the pros honest. And I'm pretty good
because I'm I'm a tough cookie on some of this stuff.
(09:51):
But we gotta give credit where credits due. I didn't
like Dallas yesterday, Fez. I didn't like the Saints. I
did not crossfire, remember everybody, but I was saying, be cautious.
You were just playing right, playing right. So my question
I guess to you is do you do? How do
(10:13):
you want to crow a little bit? You actually had
one of your biggest bets of the year on this game,
so maybe that should just be enough. I'm not gonna crow,
and I'm actually gonna give the accolades because what you
said was Dallas is gonna probably struggle to run the
ball against that really fine Faints Saints rush defense. And
that's what happened. Look at Zeke Elliot twenty three rushes.
He still didn't get the eighty yards r J and
(10:34):
you gave a bonus prop on under for ze just
for good. Now, all that said, our daily listeners know
that when you hear the green button and it makes
this sound, it's green, it has a big dollar sign
on it, and it's a button you press that it
makes that sound, that means we've bet each other. Pros
(10:58):
we can bet each other at any moment at any time.
Somehow you bet and lost money. You were so right
on this handicap. But right now, this sound, that's the
hundred dollar bill that Fez had to give me when
he walked in today. What happened, Well, you goaded me
into a great beat here where you took who's gonna
(11:20):
have more turnovers? And you said the Cowboys are gonna
have more turnovers? And I got so caught up. You
were trying to defend yourself. You were trying to defend yourself.
You were like flailing. You're like a little kid that's
getting beat up by a much stronger bully, and you
were just flailing your arms. Is that fair to say?
I flailed with and I failed with Dak Prescott's obviously
(11:42):
should be a favorite to turn the ball over more
than Drew Brees, and he did. And Brad, you joined us.
So here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna do a
quick recap of our batting so fast? How did you
do on your personal straight out of Vegas? Adding yesterday? Hi,
I'm Steve Feesick and on my green button bets I
(12:05):
lost two hundred dollars? Brad? How did you do well
after you woke me up from my afternoon naplicks? Do
you r? J? I one want to know? Hunter Box
felt I needed to tip you, though, J, So you
told me ten bucks, so Fez, I ate some crow,
but I've got a hundred and ten extra smack Rooney's
maybe a little steak bone in rib tonight. I like
(12:25):
the bone in filet though, I mean, Jona is how
much better can you do? Then? Fez wins for the
country and I make money. Even though I was wrong,
I was ready. I was waiting for Steve Zick to
do the old whole Cogan cup his ear. Listen to
the crowd wave him on. And there you were with
a low blow with a steel folding chair and waving
(12:46):
right in his face. Well, listen, you can only give
them so so much love. I've been for years. I mean,
we've been around the block. We've been around the block.
Now speak into that when we come back, and we
talked about it earlier. We're gonna give you the wisest
wise guy wisdom on each and every NFL game that's
(13:09):
coming up next. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox.
This is the pregame show you always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
(13:29):
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Now that's progressive call or click today. I'm r J. Bell,
we are straight out of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knocks.
Voice of you the fan coming up here in just
(13:51):
a couple of minutes, we will have the wisest wise
guy wisdom will take a look at every game in
the NFL coming up on Sunday. But first, r J. Um,
we do want to mention something that took place in
the NFL a quick. We've got like seven people across
the country waiting for the Vegas that's right, that's right.
(14:13):
I mean imagine that right now on the strip, sixty
two degrees and the neon is pumping. So this came
out in the NFL a little while ago, and we
need to get the Vegas perspective on this as well.
To A video from February was released courtesy of TMZ
showing Kareem Hunt, the starting running back for the Kansas
(14:33):
City Chiefs, striking um a a woman on the ground.
He kicked her, he shoved her on the ground. It
was an altercation. He's already been sent home from the
facility in Kansas City. What is the Vegas takeaway from
what happened in Kansas City today involving kareem on. And
I'll tell you one of the things I pride myself on,
one of the things I insist on this show is
(14:57):
we don't act like, because we have this platform because
we're experts at sports batting, that we're experts at other things.
As you're very intelligent, Brad's very intelligent, get a lot
of opinions. If you ever get a chance to go
and sit down and have dinner with Fez, maybe he'll
tell you about his gun control positions, but he's not
(15:17):
an expert on that. He's not an expert on much
other than sports batting, nor am I. So we're gonna
keep this from talk about this quickly as a sports
batting as a sports story, understanding it's bigger than that,
and we'll let people who are expert at those things
(15:37):
discuss that. So Fez Hunt value per game about a
half a point half a point down grade Dispenser, where
is backup? Okay? I would make the following point this game,
I think it's an advantage now Kansas City off of
(15:58):
by favored I huge number over two touchdowns And to me,
when a team has a distraction like this where it's
all this could derail the season. Kansas City is gonna
want to make a statement. They're gonna want to change
the net because imagine if somehow they lose this game
or only win by three, it's gonna be seeded teams
(16:20):
in turmoil. I think we're motivation for margin matters. With
such a big spread, this increases Kansas City's motivation for margin. Agree, disagree?
I agree, especially considering all of a sudden Kansas Cities
and the discussion for best team in the NFL, no
doubt about it. So our recap here is the least
(16:42):
for the next game is Kansas City doesn't get hurt
this week because they can not name the score. But
against the Raiders, it's really about motivation to cover, and
I think motivation increases across the season. If hunts out,
that's a downgrade for the Chiefs. Guys, it's time here
(17:03):
on straight out of Vegas for the Friday tradition that is,
are you ready for this? Wise guy? Wisdo? And we
start in Jacksonville, where the Indianapolis Colts on the road
are a four and half point favorite over the Jaguars.
(17:25):
You know, if you look at Andrew Luck obviously having
a comeback season. I don't think people realize how well
Andrew Luck is playing. Best quarterback raiding QBR ESPN does
in the history of the NFL was Tom Brady in
two thousand seven. The last five games that Andrew Luck
(17:47):
has played all five of them individually, and five he
had a better QBR then Tom Brady's best season. So
over the course of five games, Andrew Luck is playing
in each and every game better than the best quarterback
has ever played for a season. It is easier to
(18:07):
do that over five games, but this level the last
five games is all time historically good quarterback play for
Andrew Luck. Sunday Night Football, the Steelers a three point
favorite over the Chargers. Steelers lost last week obviously to Denver.
Here's an amazing stat. Pittsburgh out gained Denver by more
(18:32):
yards than any team out gained their opponent last week.
Fas if I would tell you, I'm gonna tell you
because I got the almanac from Back to the Future,
who's gonna have the best yardage differential this week? And oh,
by the way, that team isn't favored by more than
four points. I'm guessing you would want to bet that team. Yeah,
(18:53):
probably covers what percent of the time? Yeah a lot. So. Yeah,
Pittsburgh obviously lost the Gang him, but it might be
the best of both worlds. If you look at the yardage,
the team's playing pretty wow, but the motivation is there
because Pittsburgh did lose the game. The Panthers are at
the Buccaneers Carolina, a three and a half point favorite.
(19:13):
Tampa has been a darling of the betters a lot
of not necessarily every week, but I think the betters
like Tampa better than the average fan. Faz, you've got Tampa.
What sixteen? Am I remembering that? Righteen? Like like a
smidgeblow average? You might think he's crazy, Guys. Check out
(19:35):
the yardage the Tampa Bay has gained the last seven games.
I'm gonna read each of them quickly. Four twelve, five ten,
five oh one. That's five one yards three oh one, okay,
five seventy six, four fifty six, five ten. I don't
(19:57):
I haven't seen alives or whatever I won are over
those seven games. If that's the best seven game run
for yardage in the history of the NFL, I mean,
it's like five hundred a game almost. So, Yeah, turnover
is huge problem for Tampa. I don't think Tampa's an
above average team, but boy, that offense, it's getting as
(20:19):
many yards as any I've seen, and we're talking about
a half a season. Yeah, minus twenty one turnover differential
year to date, last in the NFL. The wise guys
know this typically is not predictive going forward. Yeah, so
the fact that they turned the ball over a bunch
of Tampa means they've suffered for that in the past.
It doesn't mean it's gonna keep happening. In fact, odds
are it doesn't keep happening, right, So I think Tampa
(20:42):
might be a team to look at. By the way,
you said that the French was minus one. There's only
one other team worse than minus eleven. So there's one
team that's almost as bad as Tampa, and then the
other thirty teams, even the worst of them, have about
half as many net negative turnovers. Tampa's like, historically bad
(21:05):
with turnovers and historically good with yardage. The Falcons are
a one and a half point favorite over the Ravens.
I actually, you know there's gonna be a pick on
this game, Jonas. I don't know if you know that,
And I'm gonna say something now so people don't think
I'm being hard on Jonas Later when he gives his
first pick in six weeks, so you think he's gotta
(21:28):
love it, right. This is the Falcons rush defense the
last three games. Yards per carry the opposition, how many
yards at Lant has given up per carry? Now average
in the NFL FEZ is four point three. I believe really,
I thought it was closer to four. Now what's gone
up this year? All right? So four and some change?
(21:50):
Four point eight yards, four point five yards, seven point
three yards last three games. So we know with Lamar Jackson,
Baltimore's running running running. In fact, last week Baltimore at
two two yards rushing. But boy, Atlanta worst defense by
d v o A, and it looks like the run
(22:11):
d is getting worse for the Falcons. The Texans are
a five and a half point favorite hosting the Browns.
I think this is advantage Browns when it comes to matchups.
Houston's about defense. I know Watson gets the publicity, but
the d v o A, and that's an advanced metric
from football outsiders that we trust. For Houston's offense is
(22:34):
number twenty five, all right, but their number six team
passing number thirty running, So it's simple to say Houston
has to pass the ball well. The Brown's defense against
the past second best in the NFL. Brown's defense against
the run number twenty six. So this is one of
(22:54):
the handful of teams where they can stop one thing
and can't stop the other. Brown's can stop the pass,
and Houston seems to have to pass to win matchup advantage.
Brown's the Dolphins favored by three and a half hosting
the Bills. Yeah, you know, Miami five and six record.
(23:15):
Talking about the playoffs, They've been out gained by their
opposition yardage wise five straight games. I mean, I know
Miami is not as good as your record, boy. They
might be even worse than people think. Out gained five
straight games. The Bears are three and a half point
favorites at the Giants. The Bears, I think there's some
smoke in mirrors with the offense. Naggy, We've talked about
(23:38):
that and Trabinsky now obviously a backup quarterback, but they
their ability to run the ball. If you're gonna be
an old school team, what are you thinking about play defense?
Get some turnovers. Run the ball well, selectively throw. This
is the yards per rush. So this is the Bears
what they're gaining every time they run the ball. The
(24:01):
last four games, and we just said four and changes
average two and a half yards three point eight two
and a half, two and a half. So three of
the last four games the Bears of average two and
a half yards exactly per rush, which is not much
more than half of what the average team in the
NFL does. If the Bears can't run, that means they
(24:24):
gotta pass. I don't want to be the Bears if
they have to pass. Broncos at the Bengals Denver a
five point favorite. I'm gonna just instead of giving numbers here,
I'm gonna talk about a quick concept. Often times, if
a team is doing poorly, that's when you want to
play on them because they're cheap. Think about it like
a house, right, the idea that, oh uh, the grass
(24:49):
is really high, or the stucco's falling off. It's cheap. Well,
but fundamentally you put a little cut the grass and
put a little new stucco, you're fine. But sometimes house
has like an open sword beneath it that nothing is
gonna fix right, So even if it's cheap, it's cheap
for a reason. The Bengals are cheap. But I think
(25:10):
there's so much turmo Hugh Jackson coming in there as
a coaching coaching waiting, and then the idea that they
played that badly against the Browns. I I don't know
if you can properly quantify. I don't know if the
brown or if the Bengals can be cheap enough considering
the turmoil I think is going on in that locker
(25:32):
room in that building, and more and more tiles are
falling off. The Bengal roof five new defenders on the
injury reports. Well you see how he extended that analogy.
The Rams are ten point favorites at the Lions. You
know this Lions team, Yeah, you know, I'm gonna talk
about the Rams. I don't think. I think the Rams
are probably one of two or three teams that needed
(25:53):
to buy the most. They had so many tough games,
they traveled so much, especially going to Colorado and back
for a home game before the bye. I think that obviously,
you've got a really good coach at McVeigh and they
tend to do well with buys. But I think even
beyond that, the fatigue factor for the Rams was high,
(26:15):
and I think that the time off will do the
Rams good. The Packers are a fourteen point favorite hosting
the Cardinals. This is this is historic, the fact that
the Packers are favored by fourteen if you enter the
second half of the season when records mean more. Right,
if you're one and two early, what does that mean?
(26:36):
But second half of the season. There's only been one
other team with a record as bad as the Packers
to be favored by two touchdowns or more, and that
team lost against the spread. So if the Packers cover
the fourteen, they will be the first team in thirty
years to cover a two touchdown or greater spread having
(26:57):
a record as bad as they have right now. The
ownly way that makes sense is if Arizona is a
historically bad team, and they're not. They're just a normal
bottom of the league bad team. Or Green Bay is
a historically good team with a bad record. I don't
think they are. I like Arizona. I actually have Arizona
(27:18):
ranked above Oakland just in this year, so they're not
a historically bad team. The Chiefs at the Raiders Kansas
City of fourteen and a half point favorite. We talked
about buys. Andy Reid is the king of buys in
the regular season off of by sixteen and three straight up.
You might have heard that, but fourteen and five against
the spread, a lot of good teams with the Eagle,
(27:40):
with a lot of good teams with Casey, and still
fourteen and five against the spread Andy Reid off of by.
The Titans are an eight and a half point favorite
hosting the Jets. Oh. I think the thing I could
say about this game is I don't care who quarterbacks
for the Jets. I think McCown and Darl right now
(28:01):
or a coin flip, and thus we're do we have
an update right now? Who's gonna start fest? Yeah, very
likely that it's going to be McCown McCown. Wow. So
to me, I don't you know as much as that's hey,
that's news. I think against the spread, it doesn't really matter.
No adjustment vikings at the Patriots, New England favored by five.
(28:22):
To me, this is about Minnesota being one dimensional. Minnesota
is number thirty two, running the ball worse than the
NFL d v O A with Belichick. If you're not
multiple as they call it if you can't run and pass,
if you want to do just one thing well, or
if you can only do one thing well, I think
(28:43):
Belichick can stop that. Historically, I think that's a big
disadvantage being so one dimensional Minnesota. And it's a Seahawks
favored by nine and a half hosting the forty niners.
This is a stat I haven't heard anywhere else. I'm
proud of it, but it's an I popper. So Seahawks
favored by nine and a half or ten. It's the
(29:03):
first time this season Seattle is favored by more than
three and a half points. Think about that. They have
played so many tough, tight games not favored by more
than three and a half, and we're in week thirteen
and now they're favored by double digits almost and and
and doubles in some spots. I think this is the
(29:25):
flat spot of flat spots for them to take a breath.
I think motivationally a big cause of concern for Seattle.
Coming up next here on straight out of Vegas, we
are going to hear from the one and only Colin
Cowherd with a special delivery for you, the listener. But
first for all the latest, It's dan Byer. We have
not heard from the Kansas City Chiefs in their response
(29:47):
to the video that was released today by TMZ showing
Chiefs running that Kareem Hunt kicking a woman and shoving
her at a hotel in a fight in Cleveland in February.
Police were called to the scene and they spoke with
Hunt and the alleged victim. He was not arrested and
not charged, but today was the first time the video
was made public. It's not known if the Chiefs knew
about the video or not. Hunt did practice with the
(30:08):
team today before departing the facility soon after the video
was released. Chiefs have the Raiders coming up on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson likely to start at quarterback for the Ravens
against the Falcons on Sunday, as Joe Flacco was doubtful
with a hip injury. Ohio, stated coach Urban Meyer, addressing
a report today from Football Scoop dot com that said
he was gonna step down after the twenty nineteen season.
(30:29):
There was a report out today UH saying that next
year would be here last year. Do you care to
comment on that? Is there any truth to it at all?
No comment on that, well, Meyer had no comment. Ohio
State A D. Jean Smith denied the report packed twelve
title game coming up at eight Eastern time on Fox
Washington takes on Utah Pacers guard Victor Oladipo out it
(30:50):
definitely with nice sore nous wizard said or Dwight Howard
good A missed two to three months following glute surgery
at Joe Kim Nolan. The Grizzlies close son on one
year deal. Back to you, guys, thanks, Straight out of
Vegas comes to you alive from the Geico Fox Sports
Radio studios where it's easy to say more on car
insurance with Geico go to guy dot com are call
seven Auto. The only hard part figuring out which way
(31:12):
is easier. Coming up in ten minutes from now here
on Fox Sports Radio Best Bets. As we get you
set for the weekend, I'm Jonas Knocks, a voice of
you the Fan. He's the voice of Vegas. R J. Bell. Yeah,
and we got our world premier right now with Colin Cowherd.
Jonas and I know you love to throw to Colin,
so let's do it. Well. Listen, it's time for our
(31:35):
weekly visit from Yes, the one and only Colin Cowards. No,
it's Holt's bonus pick only for R. J. Bell pick
number six. All right, bonus pick time. This is a
game A lot of people are gonna bet Chargers Steelers.
Pittsburgh attracts a lot of attention, Chargers getting three and
(31:57):
a half of the Steelers. I think it's a lower,
lower scoring game than people think. Two great quarterbacks too
great the friends at fronts. I would probably bet the
number and take the Chargers. What would the wise guys
say to that? Oh, disagreement on this one. And I
tell you this, Colin. For our Straight Out of Vegas show,
one of the things we do is listen to your
first at least couple segments because we're busy, and I'm
(32:20):
looking for ways to disagree with you, because there's no
better way to get attention than legitimately disagree with you.
Here is one where I really disagree about big Ben
you've been talking about. Hey, it was Thursday and I'm
still talking about that interception. I think for most teams,
You're right, that would be a distraction for the Steelers.
(32:40):
What it means is big Ben is paying attention to
his turnovers and really with the Steelers, his being buttoned up.
To use your phrase, big Ben when he's buttoned up
is a top three or four quarterback. When he's not,
he's not. And I think because of all this talk
about his turn overs means you're gonna get less turnovers
(33:03):
from Big Ben, And because of that and the home
field advantage, I think Pittsburgh and the wise guys agree,
roll over the charge. And my thought is, and as
I want to get yours, this link seems to be
dripping down. I mean, we like this early in the
week at three and a half, Pittsburgh, I'm seeing three
(33:23):
minus twenty. Where do you think this baby closes? I
think we're gonna see minus three for whatever reason, they're
betting the charges. I think it over that caused you
to pause and not like Pittsburgh No, because I think
they're betting it because of the concerns about Big Ben
and his game and his turnover prone game against Denver,
which I don't have concerns about going forward. And if
(33:44):
you think about it, listeners might say, wait a minute,
if you like it at three and a half, you
gotta love it at three. Except who's betting it down
to three? That's telling us they're serious. People would disagree
with us. We've got to consider It doesn't mean it
freezes us. It means you've got to consider the smart money.
(34:06):
Speaking of smart money, when we come back. All week,
we've been giving picks, but the very best for last
best bets of the week. He's r J. Bell, I'm
Jonas Knox. Is the pregame show you always wanted, and
it's money making time next here on Fox Sports Radio.
(34:28):
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. I'm
r J. Bell. We are Straight out of Vegas and
I'm Jonas Knocks, the voice of you the Fan. It
is time for best bets. As we look around this
weekend in the NFL and college football. Yeah, and Brad,
let's start with you here. Washington, Utah. Not the biggest
(34:52):
game you think the most value, Yeah, the most value
for this weekend. This game actually is tonight packed Wealth
Championship game. Best for me is on Washington, Washington minus
four and a half. It's the end of the season.
Most teams banged up players that are playing are less
than a percent. I can make a case so that
this Washington team is as healthy as they've been all season,
(35:14):
and I think that's where the value is. Keep in mind,
this was Washington team that we thought was preseason top
ten coming into the year. Well, their best player on offense,
the running back Miles Gaskin, missed a few games with injury.
He's off his best game of the season. Their top
receiver missed the first nine games of the season. He's
off his best performance of the season. They're all American.
Left tackle Washington missed the first ten games of the season.
(35:36):
Now with the red shirt rule has played the last
couple of weeks, not gonna lose a year of eligibility.
Washington is as healthy as they've been. Therefore, there's value
on Washington. Take the Huskies best bet minus four and
a half. So tonight minus four and a half best
bet from Brad Powers. Now you told us earlier in
the week, and I mean, there's just so many picks.
(35:57):
They're coming left, they're coming right. You gotta into the
podcast maybe with a notepad if you really want to
max your winning chances. You like Ohio State and their
favored right now by fourteen and a half and you oh,
it's up to fourteen and a half and you like
Texas the dog Texas and eight point Dog. Now I
(36:19):
gotta be honest with you. Fez came to me with
a little kind of a wicked smile, and he said,
you know something, these two games might be the best
time to be bad this weekend. So you want to
be bad, really bad. Vegas is here to tell you
(36:43):
the best time to be bad. And here's the reality, guys,
being a pro better. Sometimes it's boring. You don't get
to watch bet the TV games most of the time.
You can't play the parlays, you can't do teasers unless
they're through key numbers. Blah blah blah. Wow. Listen, if
(37:05):
your livelihood, if eating or not, is at steak, you
do it. But we know you out there. Most of
you aren't pros. So you want to bet better. That's
why you're listening straight out of Vegas. But you like
being bad. So what we're gonna do every week is
trying to find the best way to be bad. As
(37:28):
you got it. Here, we're gonna do a two team party. Here,
we're gonna take Texas plus eight parlayed with wait wait,
Texas plus eight yes in game one Oklahoma, And then
we're gonna parlay it to Ohio State minus four and
a half in game two. All right, so this isn't
a teaser. This is just two single bets parlay together.
Now that is usually ten dollars wins, ten dollars, a
(37:52):
hundred wins to sixty, etcetera. Now, I've always heard, and
I'm gonna be kind of like, uh, I don't understand this.
I've always heard part lays are bad. Fan has explained
it to me. The reason parley's generally are bad as
you pay a little bit extra vigorous on each game,
so you should be getting a little more than ten pays. Correct,
So you've got to have a reason to bet a parlay.
(38:13):
And I've got a reason, and it's correlation. Here the
first game nine AM Texas Oklahoma. If Texas covers Oklahoma
will have underperformed. That game will end around one o'clock Pacific.
Then Ohio State was so let's think about that. Texas covers.
If they don't cover, your parlay's dead anyway, second leg
doesn't matter. But if Texas does cover, by definition, Oklahoma
(38:36):
didn't do as well, they might win the game, but
they didn't do as well as expected. So now what
does that mean for the Ohio State bad? Ohio State
extra motivation? Four hours after the Texas game ends, they'll
have realized, Hey, the window has swung open for us
to get in. If we go ahead and we show, well,
Oklahoma underperformed, We're gonna We're gonna overperform, and I think
(38:59):
they will have everything set to blow out Northwestern. Yeah,
as we said before the show, we know the focus
will be a hundred percent because the door will feel open.
So think about the power of that, guys. A correlated
parlay is saying, if the first bet wins Texas against
the spread, then the second bet has a better chance.
(39:21):
So the parlay is the better bet here than each
of these bets individually. If you like Texas plus the points,
if you like Ohio State minus the points, be bad.
It's the best time, fez quickly. You also have an
NFL best bet, New York Giants plus three and a
half against the Chicago Bears. This one is simple r J.
Chase Daniel. I knew the backup quarterback for the Bears
(39:43):
was not as good as Trubisky. However, I have downgraded
him even further based upon what I saw on Thanksgiving
he was not mobile. He held onto the ball too much.
I don't like Chase Daniel at quarterback for the Bears.
I'm taking the g Men plus three and a half.
All right, So three and a half in Daniel significant
downgrade at this point. You know, I actually would probably
(40:04):
make that my best bet. Two. I like the Giants
and Jonas. You started the season two and two. Now,
somehow you must have thought that was a wonderful thing.
Because you've literally passed like seven straight weeks sitting on
your two and two record, You've got to pick this week.
I do. I do have a pick, and it's brought
to you by Geico, where fifteen minutes could save you
(40:26):
fifteen per cent or more on car insurance. I like
the Falcons minus one and a half. At home, they
get back Dion Jones. They're playing the Ravens. It's Lamar
Jackson's first ever career start, most likely on the road.
Give me Atlanta minus a point and a half. Yeah,
first on the road. I agree that's tough, But boy,
I think you're directionally right, and a lot of wise
(40:47):
guys are with Jonas here. I just think it minus
one and a half. You're saying Atlanta's at home is
almost as good as Baltimore. So the whole handicap is, oh,
Atlanta is not as bad as they seem, except the
line is saying Atlanta is not all that bad. So
I say, don't follow Jonas We're straight out of Vegas.
The Odd Couple is next year on Fox Sports Radio.
If you missed any of our best bets, you can
(41:08):
check out the podcast on Fox sports radio dot com.
Back on Monday, six Eastern time, three Pacific right here
on Fox Sports Radio
How much better can you do? Then Fez wins for
the country and I make money. Even though I was wrong,
I was ready. I was waiting for Steve Zik to
do the old whole Cogan Cup as ear listen to
the crowd wave him on and there you were with
a low blow with a steel folding chair and waving
right in his face. You're listening to Fox Sports. You
(00:22):
heard it. I'm r J Live Coast to coast six
o'clock eastern, three o'clock here in Vegas, an action packed
Friday hour for you. It's Pick Paluza picks on all
the biggest games, NFL, college, etcetera. And a new segment
(00:42):
recently last month or so. People love wisest wise guy wisdom.
In each NFL game, we give you one factor you
cannot watch or bet the game without if you want
to truly be knowledgeable. Speaking of knowledge, we're joined in
student udio by the pros who know Steve Ezik, NFL
(01:04):
expert and with all the college knowledge Brad powers. Sports
betters listen for the money, sports fans listen to know
more than their buddies. Here's my personal promise. We will
deliver the Vegas truth to you, But you can't have
pros without Joe's here. He is Joe, and it's Knox.
(01:25):
Always good to be here. R J. On a Football
Friday and straight out of Vegas comes to you Alive
from the Geico Fox Sports Radio studios, where fifteen minutes
could save you fifteen per cent or more on car insurance.
Visit Geico dot com for a free rate quote. We
start in the NFL Week thirteen kicked off Thursday night
in Dallas and saw the Cowboys upset the Saints thirteen
(01:47):
to ten, snapping the Saints ten game winning streak. R J.
What did Vegas make it? The Cowboys big win? Well, Vegas,
if you're speaking of the bookmakers, was happy because of
the bets on the Saints, the cash on the Saints.
Why they had covered against the spread nine straight games.
(02:10):
The Saints, if they had covered, would have been the
first team since two two have covered tenant a row.
Did not happen, the fifth team in a row to
fail on that tenth game, So ninth straight a TS
covers in the tenth game, now oh and five against
(02:31):
the spread since ninety two? Why those teams get expensive
and the Saints and FEZ you talked about it. You
loved the game, You love the Cowboys. Your followers cashed.
You cashed big time straight out of Vegas. Listeners cashed
if they listen to you. Now, to me, though, the
(02:53):
handicap you had was, oh, the line should be three
and a half the Saints, but seven and a half value.
But even if the line was three and a half,
the right line in your mind, Dallas succeeded even those expectations.
What happened in the game. What is our takeaway, Steve?
(03:13):
It's a surging Dallas defense r J that frankly, Drew
Brees felt uncomfortable the entire game, especially at the start
of the game. He started, oh for four of the
first three Saints drives, only one first down. Kudos to
that Dallas defense, and kudos to you because even weeks
ago you had a lot of optimists. Some would say,
(03:34):
remember on Seinfeld where Cramer goes he's a cock eyed optimist.
Some would say you were a cock eyed when it
came to your love of the Cowboys defense. Now though
it looks like you have we're prescient, as the high
i Q people say, seeing the future right now, where
(03:54):
do you rank Dallas's defense one to thirty two. I
have Dallas at number ten. They've cracked the top ten.
Number ten. Boy, Colin onto Her today was saying the
best front seven in the NFL better than the Bears Dallas. Boy,
that seems way optimistic, m But I agree with you.
(04:20):
Statistically the Dallas defense about ten. I think they're better
than that. And here's my theory. Let me know what
you think. The trend line on this team is steeper
upwards than the typical good defense. They're getting better at
a faster pace. Why because the key players are young. Right,
(04:45):
So we've got a rookie the seven on seven phenomen
with Vander esh and he's getting better and better in
front of our eyes, right and on. If you look
at another key player, Jalen Smith, second year player, but
Jalen Smith was really hurt at the end of his
college career. So now you could make the case the
(05:09):
first year he's fully healthy back. But even if it's
just a second year, he's on a learning curve. So
I would make the case. There's no if you say,
take the two best first or second year players on
defense off each team. So just go to each team
and say the only universe of defensive players were considering
(05:29):
his first or second year. I would make the case
Dallas is two guys, two youngsters contribute more to their
defense and any other first or second year tandem. Does
that sound right? Brad, you're the college guy. You know
the youngsters in the NFL very well. What do you think? Yeah?
I don't. I couldn't disagree with that whatsoever. So if
(05:51):
you have an especially young defense, it feels like throughout
that second year for Smith and first year for the rookie,
you're gonna get a trend line. They're gonna be so
much better in week thirteen, let's say, than week seven
if you look at the stats, though, even the algorithms
that wait the more recent games more, I don't think
(06:13):
it's waiting the more recent games enough thoughts. Yeah, I
agree with you. The advanced analytics had Dallas d v
o A on defense at number fourteen. That will probably
get upgraded to twelve with this good performance. But I
really think you can make a case with that trend
line argument currently that they're cracking the top ten. Absolutely,
and Brad, an example that is college basketball straight out
(06:34):
of Vegas is twelve months a year, fifty two weeks
a year. Probably in July, I'll be gone for a
little bit, but you know he'll move on straight out
of Vegas without r J. Isn't quite the same, but
it's still be here. We'll be talking though in February
more than once. Oh, this team, if you just look
(06:55):
at their record, it's deceiving in college basketball because they
have three freshman, once sophomore, and they are so much
better today than they were in December. Right, that's a concept. Kentucky,
for example, is better at the end of the year
almost every year, absolutely, And I think that that dallas
Is defense with the youngsters is similar to that. The
(07:18):
trend line up is steep. I still think durability, guys,
has to be an issue with Jalen Smith. His knee
injury that he suffered in the Fiesta Bowl was so bad.
There was nerve damage, multiple ligaments involved. The fact that
he's gotten to this point he looks fantastic, but I
would just be cautious as to being able to rely
on those two staying healthy together for a decade. I
(07:38):
think it's a great point, but who's betting the next decade? Right?
If you're a fan, I think Jonas is right speaking
for the fans. But even next week, I'm betting right now,
plus percent of NFL bets are about the upcoming games.
You could bet maybe who's going to make the playoffs.
(07:58):
You could bet super Bowl odds, but that's less than
five percent. Now before the season, when you're betting season
long over underwin totals, who's gonna win divisions, It's very
important to think of durability fast. I've heard you in
multiple season long handicaps before the season starts saying, oh,
I think this team will be mighty good in September.
(08:21):
They're brittle, though they're old. I think they're gonna fade late.
That you consider that with your season long bats. Yeah,
back in August, I'm a long term trader thinking about
the entire season. Now I'm a short term trader. Seven
day window. R J. Steve Faza right there, good stuff.
I'm r J. Bell, straight out of Vegas. All right, Steve, listen,
I'm tough, tough on you, tough on Brad, tough love. Well, yeah,
(08:45):
tough light. We'll say tough light. But but I don't
even say like I like you, like you, but you know,
but here's a little wonder years. But here's what I'll say.
You've got people feeling sorry for you now with these
people don't understand is I'm doing it for them. When
I'm hard on physic it's because I am the stand
(09:08):
in for you, the listener. Because let's be candid, there's
other shows that try to do sports betting. They're all
smacking each other on the back, saying how smart each other.
And sometimes that's justified, but sometimes it's like, what are
you talking about, Fez. Sometimes you need this and everywhere
in between. And I am genuine about that because if
(09:30):
I am silent when I disagree, then I'm complicit and
what you said, and if I don't agree, I'm not
going to be complicit. And I hope the listener, I
hope you appreciate that out there, because that's my job
is to keep the pros honest. And I'm pretty good
because I'm I'm a tough cookie on some of this stuff.
(09:51):
But we gotta give credit where credits due. I didn't
like Dallas yesterday, Fez. I didn't like the Saints. I
did not crossfire, remember everybody, but I was saying, be cautious.
You were just playing right, playing right. So my question
I guess to you is do you do? How do
(10:13):
you want to crow a little bit? You actually had
one of your biggest bets of the year on this game,
so maybe that should just be enough. I'm not gonna crow,
and I'm actually gonna give the accolades because what you
said was Dallas is gonna probably struggle to run the
ball against that really fine Faints Saints rush defense. And
that's what happened. Look at Zeke Elliot twenty three rushes.
He still didn't get the eighty yards r J and
(10:34):
you gave a bonus prop on under for ze just
for good. Now, all that said, our daily listeners know
that when you hear the green button and it makes
this sound, it's green, it has a big dollar sign
on it, and it's a button you press that it
makes that sound, that means we've bet each other. Pros
(10:58):
we can bet each other at any moment at any time.
Somehow you bet and lost money. You were so right
on this handicap. But right now, this sound, that's the
hundred dollar bill that Fez had to give me when
he walked in today. What happened, Well, you goaded me
into a great beat here where you took who's gonna
(11:20):
have more turnovers? And you said the Cowboys are gonna
have more turnovers? And I got so caught up. You
were trying to defend yourself. You were trying to defend yourself.
You were like flailing. You're like a little kid that's
getting beat up by a much stronger bully, and you
were just flailing your arms. Is that fair to say?
I flailed with and I failed with Dak Prescott's obviously
(11:42):
should be a favorite to turn the ball over more
than Drew Brees, and he did. And Brad, you joined us.
So here's what we're gonna do. We're gonna do a
quick recap of our batting so fast? How did you
do on your personal straight out of Vegas? Adding yesterday? Hi,
I'm Steve Feesick and on my green button bets I
(12:05):
lost two hundred dollars? Brad? How did you do well
after you woke me up from my afternoon naplicks? Do
you r? J? I one want to know? Hunter Box
felt I needed to tip you, though, J, So you
told me ten bucks, so Fez, I ate some crow,
but I've got a hundred and ten extra smack Rooney's
maybe a little steak bone in rib tonight. I like
(12:25):
the bone in filet though, I mean, Jona is how
much better can you do? Then? Fez wins for the
country and I make money. Even though I was wrong,
I was ready. I was waiting for Steve Zick to
do the old whole Cogan cup his ear. Listen to
the crowd wave him on. And there you were with
a low blow with a steel folding chair and waving
(12:46):
right in his face. Well, listen, you can only give
them so so much love. I've been for years. I mean,
we've been around the block. We've been around the block.
Now speak into that when we come back, and we
talked about it earlier. We're gonna give you the wisest
wise guy wisdom on each and every NFL game that's
(13:09):
coming up next. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox.
This is the pregame show you always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
(13:29):
Heart Radio app brought to you by Progressive Insurance. We'll
compare rates for you so you get a great deal
even if it's not with us saving you time and money.
Now that's progressive call or click today. I'm r J. Bell,
we are straight out of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knocks.
Voice of you the fan coming up here in just
(13:51):
a couple of minutes, we will have the wisest wise
guy wisdom will take a look at every game in
the NFL coming up on Sunday. But first, r J. Um,
we do want to mention something that took place in
the NFL a quick. We've got like seven people across
the country waiting for the Vegas that's right, that's right.
(14:13):
I mean imagine that right now on the strip, sixty
two degrees and the neon is pumping. So this came
out in the NFL a little while ago, and we
need to get the Vegas perspective on this as well.
To A video from February was released courtesy of TMZ
showing Kareem Hunt, the starting running back for the Kansas
(14:33):
City Chiefs, striking um a a woman on the ground.
He kicked her, he shoved her on the ground. It
was an altercation. He's already been sent home from the
facility in Kansas City. What is the Vegas takeaway from
what happened in Kansas City today involving kareem on. And
I'll tell you one of the things I pride myself on,
one of the things I insist on this show is
(14:57):
we don't act like, because we have this platform because
we're experts at sports batting, that we're experts at other things.
As you're very intelligent, Brad's very intelligent, get a lot
of opinions. If you ever get a chance to go
and sit down and have dinner with Fez, maybe he'll
tell you about his gun control positions, but he's not
(15:17):
an expert on that. He's not an expert on much
other than sports batting, nor am I. So we're gonna
keep this from talk about this quickly as a sports
batting as a sports story, understanding it's bigger than that,
and we'll let people who are expert at those things
(15:37):
discuss that. So Fez Hunt value per game about a
half a point half a point down grade Dispenser, where
is backup? Okay? I would make the following point this game,
I think it's an advantage now Kansas City off of
(15:58):
by favored I huge number over two touchdowns And to me,
when a team has a distraction like this where it's
all this could derail the season. Kansas City is gonna
want to make a statement. They're gonna want to change
the net because imagine if somehow they lose this game
or only win by three, it's gonna be seeded teams
(16:20):
in turmoil. I think we're motivation for margin matters. With
such a big spread, this increases Kansas City's motivation for margin. Agree, disagree?
I agree, especially considering all of a sudden Kansas Cities
and the discussion for best team in the NFL, no
doubt about it. So our recap here is the least
(16:42):
for the next game is Kansas City doesn't get hurt
this week because they can not name the score. But
against the Raiders, it's really about motivation to cover, and
I think motivation increases across the season. If hunts out,
that's a downgrade for the Chiefs. Guys, it's time here
(17:03):
on straight out of Vegas for the Friday tradition that is,
are you ready for this? Wise guy? Wisdo? And we
start in Jacksonville, where the Indianapolis Colts on the road
are a four and half point favorite over the Jaguars.
(17:25):
You know, if you look at Andrew Luck obviously having
a comeback season. I don't think people realize how well
Andrew Luck is playing. Best quarterback raiding QBR ESPN does
in the history of the NFL was Tom Brady in
two thousand seven. The last five games that Andrew Luck
(17:47):
has played all five of them individually, and five he
had a better QBR then Tom Brady's best season. So
over the course of five games, Andrew Luck is playing
in each and every game better than the best quarterback
has ever played for a season. It is easier to
(18:07):
do that over five games, but this level the last
five games is all time historically good quarterback play for
Andrew Luck. Sunday Night Football, the Steelers a three point
favorite over the Chargers. Steelers lost last week obviously to Denver.
Here's an amazing stat. Pittsburgh out gained Denver by more
(18:32):
yards than any team out gained their opponent last week.
Fas if I would tell you, I'm gonna tell you
because I got the almanac from Back to the Future,
who's gonna have the best yardage differential this week? And oh,
by the way, that team isn't favored by more than
four points. I'm guessing you would want to bet that team. Yeah,
(18:53):
probably covers what percent of the time? Yeah a lot. So. Yeah,
Pittsburgh obviously lost the Gang him, but it might be
the best of both worlds. If you look at the yardage,
the team's playing pretty wow, but the motivation is there
because Pittsburgh did lose the game. The Panthers are at
the Buccaneers Carolina, a three and a half point favorite.
(19:13):
Tampa has been a darling of the betters a lot
of not necessarily every week, but I think the betters
like Tampa better than the average fan. Faz, you've got Tampa.
What sixteen? Am I remembering that? Righteen? Like like a
smidgeblow average? You might think he's crazy, Guys. Check out
(19:35):
the yardage the Tampa Bay has gained the last seven games.
I'm gonna read each of them quickly. Four twelve, five ten,
five oh one. That's five one yards three oh one, okay,
five seventy six, four fifty six, five ten. I don't
(19:57):
I haven't seen alives or whatever I won are over
those seven games. If that's the best seven game run
for yardage in the history of the NFL, I mean,
it's like five hundred a game almost. So, Yeah, turnover
is huge problem for Tampa. I don't think Tampa's an
above average team, but boy, that offense, it's getting as
(20:19):
many yards as any I've seen, and we're talking about
a half a season. Yeah, minus twenty one turnover differential
year to date, last in the NFL. The wise guys
know this typically is not predictive going forward. Yeah, so
the fact that they turned the ball over a bunch
of Tampa means they've suffered for that in the past.
It doesn't mean it's gonna keep happening. In fact, odds
are it doesn't keep happening, right, So I think Tampa
(20:42):
might be a team to look at. By the way,
you said that the French was minus one. There's only
one other team worse than minus eleven. So there's one
team that's almost as bad as Tampa, and then the
other thirty teams, even the worst of them, have about
half as many net negative turnovers. Tampa's like, historically bad
(21:05):
with turnovers and historically good with yardage. The Falcons are
a one and a half point favorite over the Ravens.
I actually, you know there's gonna be a pick on
this game, Jonas. I don't know if you know that,
And I'm gonna say something now so people don't think
I'm being hard on Jonas Later when he gives his
first pick in six weeks, so you think he's gotta
(21:28):
love it, right. This is the Falcons rush defense the
last three games. Yards per carry the opposition, how many
yards at Lant has given up per carry? Now average
in the NFL FEZ is four point three. I believe really,
I thought it was closer to four. Now what's gone
up this year? All right? So four and some change?
(21:50):
Four point eight yards, four point five yards, seven point
three yards last three games. So we know with Lamar Jackson,
Baltimore's running running running. In fact, last week Baltimore at
two two yards rushing. But boy, Atlanta worst defense by
d v o A, and it looks like the run
(22:11):
d is getting worse for the Falcons. The Texans are
a five and a half point favorite hosting the Browns.
I think this is advantage Browns when it comes to matchups.
Houston's about defense. I know Watson gets the publicity, but
the d v o A, and that's an advanced metric
from football outsiders that we trust. For Houston's offense is
(22:34):
number twenty five, all right, but their number six team
passing number thirty running, So it's simple to say Houston
has to pass the ball well. The Brown's defense against
the past second best in the NFL. Brown's defense against
the run number twenty six. So this is one of
(22:54):
the handful of teams where they can stop one thing
and can't stop the other. Brown's can stop the pass,
and Houston seems to have to pass to win matchup advantage.
Brown's the Dolphins favored by three and a half hosting
the Bills. Yeah, you know, Miami five and six record.
(23:15):
Talking about the playoffs, They've been out gained by their
opposition yardage wise five straight games. I mean, I know
Miami is not as good as your record, boy. They
might be even worse than people think. Out gained five
straight games. The Bears are three and a half point
favorites at the Giants. The Bears, I think there's some
smoke in mirrors with the offense. Naggy, We've talked about
(23:38):
that and Trabinsky now obviously a backup quarterback, but they
their ability to run the ball. If you're gonna be
an old school team, what are you thinking about play defense?
Get some turnovers. Run the ball well, selectively throw. This
is the yards per rush. So this is the Bears
what they're gaining every time they run the ball. The
(24:01):
last four games, and we just said four and changes
average two and a half yards three point eight two
and a half, two and a half. So three of
the last four games the Bears of average two and
a half yards exactly per rush, which is not much
more than half of what the average team in the
NFL does. If the Bears can't run, that means they
(24:24):
gotta pass. I don't want to be the Bears if
they have to pass. Broncos at the Bengals Denver a
five point favorite. I'm gonna just instead of giving numbers here,
I'm gonna talk about a quick concept. Often times, if
a team is doing poorly, that's when you want to
play on them because they're cheap. Think about it like
a house, right, the idea that, oh uh, the grass
(24:49):
is really high, or the stucco's falling off. It's cheap. Well,
but fundamentally you put a little cut the grass and
put a little new stucco, you're fine. But sometimes house
has like an open sword beneath it that nothing is
gonna fix right, So even if it's cheap, it's cheap
for a reason. The Bengals are cheap. But I think
(25:10):
there's so much turmo Hugh Jackson coming in there as
a coaching coaching waiting, and then the idea that they
played that badly against the Browns. I I don't know
if you can properly quantify. I don't know if the
brown or if the Bengals can be cheap enough considering
the turmoil I think is going on in that locker
(25:32):
room in that building, and more and more tiles are
falling off. The Bengal roof five new defenders on the
injury reports. Well you see how he extended that analogy.
The Rams are ten point favorites at the Lions. You
know this Lions team, Yeah, you know, I'm gonna talk
about the Rams. I don't think. I think the Rams
are probably one of two or three teams that needed
(25:53):
to buy the most. They had so many tough games,
they traveled so much, especially going to Colorado and back
for a home game before the bye. I think that obviously,
you've got a really good coach at McVeigh and they
tend to do well with buys. But I think even
beyond that, the fatigue factor for the Rams was high,
(26:15):
and I think that the time off will do the
Rams good. The Packers are a fourteen point favorite hosting
the Cardinals. This is this is historic, the fact that
the Packers are favored by fourteen if you enter the
second half of the season when records mean more. Right,
if you're one and two early, what does that mean?
(26:36):
But second half of the season. There's only been one
other team with a record as bad as the Packers
to be favored by two touchdowns or more, and that
team lost against the spread. So if the Packers cover
the fourteen, they will be the first team in thirty
years to cover a two touchdown or greater spread having
(26:57):
a record as bad as they have right now. The
ownly way that makes sense is if Arizona is a
historically bad team, and they're not. They're just a normal
bottom of the league bad team. Or Green Bay is
a historically good team with a bad record. I don't
think they are. I like Arizona. I actually have Arizona
(27:18):
ranked above Oakland just in this year, so they're not
a historically bad team. The Chiefs at the Raiders Kansas
City of fourteen and a half point favorite. We talked
about buys. Andy Reid is the king of buys in
the regular season off of by sixteen and three straight up.
You might have heard that, but fourteen and five against
the spread, a lot of good teams with the Eagle,
(27:40):
with a lot of good teams with Casey, and still
fourteen and five against the spread Andy Reid off of by.
The Titans are an eight and a half point favorite
hosting the Jets. Oh. I think the thing I could
say about this game is I don't care who quarterbacks
for the Jets. I think McCown and Darl right now
(28:01):
or a coin flip, and thus we're do we have
an update right now? Who's gonna start fest? Yeah, very
likely that it's going to be McCown McCown. Wow. So
to me, I don't you know as much as that's hey,
that's news. I think against the spread, it doesn't really matter.
No adjustment vikings at the Patriots, New England favored by five.
(28:22):
To me, this is about Minnesota being one dimensional. Minnesota
is number thirty two, running the ball worse than the
NFL d v O A with Belichick. If you're not
multiple as they call it if you can't run and pass,
if you want to do just one thing well, or
if you can only do one thing well, I think
(28:43):
Belichick can stop that. Historically, I think that's a big
disadvantage being so one dimensional Minnesota. And it's a Seahawks
favored by nine and a half hosting the forty niners.
This is a stat I haven't heard anywhere else. I'm
proud of it, but it's an I popper. So Seahawks
favored by nine and a half or ten. It's the
(29:03):
first time this season Seattle is favored by more than
three and a half points. Think about that. They have
played so many tough, tight games not favored by more
than three and a half, and we're in week thirteen
and now they're favored by double digits almost and and
and doubles in some spots. I think this is the
(29:25):
flat spot of flat spots for them to take a breath.
I think motivationally a big cause of concern for Seattle.
Coming up next here on straight out of Vegas, we
are going to hear from the one and only Colin
Cowherd with a special delivery for you, the listener. But
first for all the latest, It's dan Byer. We have
not heard from the Kansas City Chiefs in their response
(29:47):
to the video that was released today by TMZ showing
Chiefs running that Kareem Hunt kicking a woman and shoving
her at a hotel in a fight in Cleveland in February.
Police were called to the scene and they spoke with
Hunt and the alleged victim. He was not arrested and
not charged, but today was the first time the video
was made public. It's not known if the Chiefs knew
about the video or not. Hunt did practice with the
(30:08):
team today before departing the facility soon after the video
was released. Chiefs have the Raiders coming up on Sunday.
Lamar Jackson likely to start at quarterback for the Ravens
against the Falcons on Sunday, as Joe Flacco was doubtful
with a hip injury. Ohio, stated coach Urban Meyer, addressing
a report today from Football Scoop dot com that said
he was gonna step down after the twenty nineteen season.
(30:29):
There was a report out today UH saying that next
year would be here last year. Do you care to
comment on that? Is there any truth to it at all?
No comment on that, well, Meyer had no comment. Ohio
State A D. Jean Smith denied the report packed twelve
title game coming up at eight Eastern time on Fox
Washington takes on Utah Pacers guard Victor Oladipo out it
(30:50):
definitely with nice sore nous wizard said or Dwight Howard
good A missed two to three months following glute surgery
at Joe Kim Nolan. The Grizzlies close son on one
year deal. Back to you, guys, thanks, Straight out of
Vegas comes to you alive from the Geico Fox Sports
Radio studios where it's easy to say more on car
insurance with Geico go to guy dot com are call
seven Auto. The only hard part figuring out which way
(31:12):
is easier. Coming up in ten minutes from now here
on Fox Sports Radio Best Bets. As we get you
set for the weekend, I'm Jonas Knocks, a voice of
you the Fan. He's the voice of Vegas. R J. Bell. Yeah,
and we got our world premier right now with Colin Cowherd.
Jonas and I know you love to throw to Colin,
so let's do it. Well. Listen, it's time for our
(31:35):
weekly visit from Yes, the one and only Colin Cowards. No,
it's Holt's bonus pick only for R. J. Bell pick
number six. All right, bonus pick time. This is a
game A lot of people are gonna bet Chargers Steelers.
Pittsburgh attracts a lot of attention, Chargers getting three and
(31:57):
a half of the Steelers. I think it's a lower,
lower scoring game than people think. Two great quarterbacks too
great the friends at fronts. I would probably bet the
number and take the Chargers. What would the wise guys
say to that? Oh, disagreement on this one. And I
tell you this, Colin. For our Straight Out of Vegas show,
one of the things we do is listen to your
first at least couple segments because we're busy, and I'm
(32:20):
looking for ways to disagree with you, because there's no
better way to get attention than legitimately disagree with you.
Here is one where I really disagree about big Ben
you've been talking about. Hey, it was Thursday and I'm
still talking about that interception. I think for most teams,
You're right, that would be a distraction for the Steelers.
(32:40):
What it means is big Ben is paying attention to
his turnovers and really with the Steelers, his being buttoned up.
To use your phrase, big Ben when he's buttoned up
is a top three or four quarterback. When he's not,
he's not. And I think because of all this talk
about his turn overs means you're gonna get less turnovers
(33:03):
from Big Ben, And because of that and the home
field advantage, I think Pittsburgh and the wise guys agree,
roll over the charge. And my thought is, and as
I want to get yours, this link seems to be
dripping down. I mean, we like this early in the
week at three and a half, Pittsburgh, I'm seeing three
(33:23):
minus twenty. Where do you think this baby closes? I
think we're gonna see minus three for whatever reason, they're
betting the charges. I think it over that caused you
to pause and not like Pittsburgh No, because I think
they're betting it because of the concerns about Big Ben
and his game and his turnover prone game against Denver,
which I don't have concerns about going forward. And if
(33:44):
you think about it, listeners might say, wait a minute,
if you like it at three and a half, you
gotta love it at three. Except who's betting it down
to three? That's telling us they're serious. People would disagree
with us. We've got to consider It doesn't mean it
freezes us. It means you've got to consider the smart money.
(34:06):
Speaking of smart money, when we come back. All week,
we've been giving picks, but the very best for last
best bets of the week. He's r J. Bell, I'm
Jonas Knox. Is the pregame show you always wanted, and
it's money making time next here on Fox Sports Radio.
(34:28):
Be sure to catch live editions of Straight Out of
Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern, three pm Pacific. I'm
r J. Bell. We are Straight out of Vegas and
I'm Jonas Knocks, the voice of you the Fan. It
is time for best bets. As we look around this
weekend in the NFL and college football. Yeah, and Brad,
let's start with you here. Washington, Utah. Not the biggest
(34:52):
game you think the most value, Yeah, the most value
for this weekend. This game actually is tonight packed Wealth
Championship game. Best for me is on Washington, Washington minus
four and a half. It's the end of the season.
Most teams banged up players that are playing are less
than a percent. I can make a case so that
this Washington team is as healthy as they've been all season,
(35:14):
and I think that's where the value is. Keep in mind,
this was Washington team that we thought was preseason top
ten coming into the year. Well, their best player on offense,
the running back Miles Gaskin, missed a few games with injury.
He's off his best game of the season. Their top
receiver missed the first nine games of the season. He's
off his best performance of the season. They're all American.
Left tackle Washington missed the first ten games of the season.
(35:36):
Now with the red shirt rule has played the last
couple of weeks, not gonna lose a year of eligibility.
Washington is as healthy as they've been. Therefore, there's value
on Washington. Take the Huskies best bet minus four and
a half. So tonight minus four and a half best
bet from Brad Powers. Now you told us earlier in
the week, and I mean, there's just so many picks.
(35:57):
They're coming left, they're coming right. You gotta into the
podcast maybe with a notepad if you really want to
max your winning chances. You like Ohio State and their
favored right now by fourteen and a half and you oh,
it's up to fourteen and a half and you like
Texas the dog Texas and eight point Dog. Now I
(36:19):
gotta be honest with you. Fez came to me with
a little kind of a wicked smile, and he said,
you know something, these two games might be the best
time to be bad this weekend. So you want to
be bad, really bad. Vegas is here to tell you
(36:43):
the best time to be bad. And here's the reality, guys,
being a pro better. Sometimes it's boring. You don't get
to watch bet the TV games most of the time.
You can't play the parlays, you can't do teasers unless
they're through key numbers. Blah blah blah. Wow. Listen, if
(37:05):
your livelihood, if eating or not, is at steak, you
do it. But we know you out there. Most of
you aren't pros. So you want to bet better. That's
why you're listening straight out of Vegas. But you like
being bad. So what we're gonna do every week is
trying to find the best way to be bad. As
(37:28):
you got it. Here, we're gonna do a two team party. Here,
we're gonna take Texas plus eight parlayed with wait wait,
Texas plus eight yes in game one Oklahoma, And then
we're gonna parlay it to Ohio State minus four and
a half in game two. All right, so this isn't
a teaser. This is just two single bets parlay together.
Now that is usually ten dollars wins, ten dollars, a
(37:52):
hundred wins to sixty, etcetera. Now, I've always heard, and
I'm gonna be kind of like, uh, I don't understand this.
I've always heard part lays are bad. Fan has explained
it to me. The reason parley's generally are bad as
you pay a little bit extra vigorous on each game,
so you should be getting a little more than ten pays. Correct,
So you've got to have a reason to bet a parlay.
(38:13):
And I've got a reason, and it's correlation. Here the
first game nine AM Texas Oklahoma. If Texas covers Oklahoma
will have underperformed. That game will end around one o'clock Pacific.
Then Ohio State was so let's think about that. Texas covers.
If they don't cover, your parlay's dead anyway, second leg
doesn't matter. But if Texas does cover, by definition, Oklahoma
(38:36):
didn't do as well, they might win the game, but
they didn't do as well as expected. So now what
does that mean for the Ohio State bad? Ohio State
extra motivation? Four hours after the Texas game ends, they'll
have realized, Hey, the window has swung open for us
to get in. If we go ahead and we show, well,
Oklahoma underperformed, We're gonna We're gonna overperform, and I think
(38:59):
they will have everything set to blow out Northwestern. Yeah,
as we said before the show, we know the focus
will be a hundred percent because the door will feel open.
So think about the power of that, guys. A correlated
parlay is saying, if the first bet wins Texas against
the spread, then the second bet has a better chance.
(39:21):
So the parlay is the better bet here than each
of these bets individually. If you like Texas plus the points,
if you like Ohio State minus the points, be bad.
It's the best time, fez quickly. You also have an
NFL best bet, New York Giants plus three and a
half against the Chicago Bears. This one is simple r J.
Chase Daniel. I knew the backup quarterback for the Bears
(39:43):
was not as good as Trubisky. However, I have downgraded
him even further based upon what I saw on Thanksgiving
he was not mobile. He held onto the ball too much.
I don't like Chase Daniel at quarterback for the Bears.
I'm taking the g Men plus three and a half.
All right, So three and a half in Daniel significant
downgrade at this point. You know, I actually would probably
(40:04):
make that my best bet. Two. I like the Giants
and Jonas. You started the season two and two. Now,
somehow you must have thought that was a wonderful thing.
Because you've literally passed like seven straight weeks sitting on
your two and two record, You've got to pick this week.
I do. I do have a pick, and it's brought
to you by Geico, where fifteen minutes could save you
(40:26):
fifteen per cent or more on car insurance. I like
the Falcons minus one and a half. At home, they
get back Dion Jones. They're playing the Ravens. It's Lamar
Jackson's first ever career start, most likely on the road.
Give me Atlanta minus a point and a half. Yeah,
first on the road. I agree that's tough, But boy,
I think you're directionally right, and a lot of wise
(40:47):
guys are with Jonas here. I just think it minus
one and a half. You're saying Atlanta's at home is
almost as good as Baltimore. So the whole handicap is, oh,
Atlanta is not as bad as they seem, except the
line is saying Atlanta is not all that bad. So
I say, don't follow Jonas We're straight out of Vegas.
The Odd Couple is next year on Fox Sports Radio.
If you missed any of our best bets, you can
(41:08):
check out the podcast on Fox sports radio dot com.
Back on Monday, six Eastern time, three Pacific right here
on Fox Sports Radio
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