June 14, 2022 • 38 mins
Today on Straight Outta Vegas, AJ Hoffman, Steve Fezzik, McKenzie Rivers and Scott Seidenberg react to the Warriors huge Game 5 victory over the Celtics to take a 3-2 series lead in the NBA Finals. The guys reveals who they believe is the MVP in the series up to this point, and of Boston can do anything to get back into the series.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
I'm a J. Hoffman with the sports betting headlines for Tuesday.
Golden State Warriors pull away in the fourth quarter, win
and cover against the Celtics a three to lead in
a quote unquote bad Curry game. We're gonna discuss that
with their season on the line Thursday, Vegas has installed
(00:20):
the Celtics as four point favorite, so no adjustment to
the team's just flip the flip the home court four
point difference. Here comes a full hour of the Vegas
Truth covering all that and more. You don't listening to
Fox Sports Vegas home. This is straight out of Vegas
with the voice of Vegas, your host r J the
(00:56):
three game show America has always wanted from the Vegas Trap.
Here's r J Bow That's right, not quite. I'm a J.
(01:18):
Hoffman in for r J. Bell Live in Vegas, Live
on a Tuesday on two FSR stations around the Great
Great Nation. In studio with me today the only two
time Super Contest champion, Mr Steve Fezzic, Hello Steve Black. Tuesday.
After the game last night, we'll discuss that and from
(01:41):
Vegas Sports and Information at Work. Mr Scott Seidenberg joins us.
Scott how are you friends? So I guess it's garbage
bag day. I'll pack my stuff. Yeah, listen, we were
wrong about the game last night. Fas, let's start there.
Every everything that we projected, Nope, had the first quarter,
oh or Boston couldn't make any threes and couldn't make
(02:03):
anything that had no chance to cover. And guess what
we also, I had my best bet Boston first half
plus two. Again, not making any threes didn't help that one,
and then the trifecta here had we had Golden State
third quarter. Golden State is crushed all playoffs long in
(02:23):
this series and frankly the past five years. This may
have been the worst third quarter Golden State has played.
Despite their stellar game. Well, let's talk about this because
there's a lot of things that happened last night that
had you said this before the game, no one thinks
this is the result for those who are are living
(02:44):
in a cave somewhere. The Golden State Warriors one oh
four winners last night, no problem winning the game. There
was a time in the third quarter where the Celtics said, Okay,
we're to make it close, and I think there was
a Jalen Brown and one right, right, near the end
(03:07):
of the third quarter. Then Jordan's pool goes down and
he's a three at the buzzer, and I think that
was the start of like a thirteen nothing run. And
what we'll get into the fourth quarter for the Celtics
here in a bit. But if I told you Steph
Curry is going to have the worst shooting night of
his playoffs, he is not going to make a three
(03:30):
for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the earth. Jason Tatum,
it's going to put up and the Celtics are going
to avoid what's been their downfall this entire series, that's
getting smacked around by the Warriors in the third quarter.
So I tell you Curry shoots terribly. Tatum puts up
(03:52):
twenty seven, close to expectation for the finally, and the
Celtics not only win the third quarter, dominate the third quarter.
You ever think in the result at a ten point
Warriors win. Never you have to be pre production, what
percent of my bank roll would I bet? And off
the top of I said, you know, I'm gonna mend
that I think the Celtics, given those um events occurred,
(04:18):
cover eighty percent of the time. If you have a bet,
your edge is over fifty and so Kelly criterion. That's
what the math geeks used to bet size. You would
bet half of your bank roll, which would leave my
wife very unhappy. I got stung. I had I bet
the Celtics in the second half and bet the under
(04:40):
in the second half of the second half. Unders have
been extremely profitable in these NBA finals and in these playoffs.
Are you laid two and a half, laid two and
a half and one oh seven and a half and
it finished Celtical in the second half by two second
half total landed at one oh eight. Nothing shows how
it's more important to have multiple outs than that those
(05:00):
You know what, I'm not saying because I didn't follow
it close enough. I'm not saying that you could have
turned those losses into wins, but you probably could have
turned the losses into pushes with just enough out. Especially
I'm sure on that on the total we talked about
that pre production that that, especially in Vegas, it's always
a half point higher at the square ball books. I
don't want to embarrass anyone like the station casinos or
(05:22):
South Points or place like oh never never, no, no.
They just cater to recreational betters more than the Sharp
Bears like first, like Circuit does. Yeah, and and you know,
watching the way the Celtics came out in that third quarter,
I felt great and feel great about the total because
there was fifty nine point scored in that third quarter.
But I did expect the fourth quarter to tighten up,
especially in a game five. And look at what we
see in the past two fourth quarters prior to last night.
(05:45):
We're forty seven points and what thirty four points in
the other one, So you knew it was gonna be
a much lower scoring fourth quarter. And it turns out
we did only have we had forty nine, so we're still,
you know, we not high scoring, but it was lower,
lower scoring than you needed it to be for the total.
And I kept thinking about that final three pointer by
Luke Cornett at the end. That didn't bother me, fays.
(06:07):
What bothered me was the Jordan Pool buzzer beater at
the end of the third. So freeze that there's two
seconds left and Pool doesn't mean about the ball yet
they're looking to pass it to him. The probability Golden
State scores probably gonna be a three at that point.
What do you think, like seven something like that. Maybe
think now, the reason why I party done it now
this is the second time in this series, right. The
(06:28):
reason why I bring that up is because, as a
j mentioned, that was the start of the turnaround in
the second half of the Golden State Warriors. And yes,
that cost me my bet both ways on the Celtics
and the total in the second half. But I think
it also costs the Celtics the game because if he
doesn't make that shot, they win that third quarter by
fifteen points and they have themselves a nice little building
(06:54):
block here to go into the fourth quarter with the
moment momentum. Instead, Jordan Pools single handily with that shot,
sent Golden State back into the game and in my opinion,
erased all of the good that Boston did in that
third quarter. It kind of reminds me of Game three,
where the Celtics were dominating the game and then there's
(07:16):
a big run by by Curry and they get back
in that game and it looks like, oh, they're the
third quarter, they dominate their back in this game, and
in the fourth quarter they rolled over and died. I
mean it made that without that pool shot, That's what
you're hoping half to think about this. So so, okay,
the Celtics were down twelve and a half, right, and
(07:36):
at that point they wound up winning the third quarter
by eleven. So let's say they win the third quarter
by fourteen instead of eleven. Now they're up two points
going into the fourth quarter instead of being down one.
You almost saw it with the body language pool after
he made the shot. I think what was the high
five five and the fake clingtons in the second round
(07:58):
that hangs out, you know, with the at the primo seats,
but you could see it almost in the body language.
We're okay, we still got the lead. Or okay, let's
start with there's the big narrative is the Celtics lost
the bad Curry game. You can't recover from that. That
was the bad Steph Curry game? Or was it the
(08:18):
good Andrew Wiggins game. I think it was a bad
shooting game for Steph. I thought Steph played really well.
I like, I mean, obviously it would have been nice
to see him make some threes. And you you was
you kind of equate Steph shooting well to Steph playing well.
But Steph hit a couple of floaters. Steph played really
solid defense, say what you want. Step is not a
(08:40):
terrible defensive player anymore. Uh. When when they were on
the when he was on the floor, that the Warriors
were plus fifteen, he had eight to one assist to
turnover ratio. That's not a bad game. It's just not
He had a bad shooting game. It was easily made
up for by the rest of the Warriors, particularly through Wiggins.
Who listen, We've talked about this before about fit and
(09:07):
culture of a team. Andrew Wiggins found the right place.
Andrew Wiggins was never a bad basketball player. And Andrew
Wiggins was put in a role that made him put
up a bunch of empty numbers. And now he's in
a role and he's part of something bigger and he's
able to shine. When you say, hey, don't worry about
being our leading score. Just go out there and play
(09:28):
tough defense. Hey, don't don't worry about you know, getting
you know this mini rebounds. Just go They're just saying, hey,
do what you do. Here's your role. He knows his role.
It's never Hey, Andrew Wiggins, go out there and be
our best player every night and hope that we win
a bunch of games. Which that's what it was in Minnesota.
Let's face it, Andrew, we need you to win a
bunch of games. Go. This is a young kid. This
(09:49):
is a guy who was young in his career. That's
not how you get good at basketball. It is how
you get a big contract by average three points a game.
But let me tell you something. Do you think Andrew
wigg his value is more now that he's played this
season with the Warriors, or had he kept doing what
he was doing in Minnesota putting up a bunch of
empty number. I would say now it feels like now
(10:10):
Wiggins is like a guy who you can build a
team around and win a title. Like if I would
have never thought that before he came to Golden State.
I agree with that, and I think he'll capitalize on
that as well in terms of the value and what
you know, he's going to get paid the rest of
his career. You see the old Jason Tatum tweet that
was dug up someone. They found an old tweet from
Jason Tatum where he said Jabari Parker is better than
(10:32):
Andrew Wiggins. Well, now he knows. Draymond Green comes out,
it comes back from the dead, and again you're not
gonna Draymond Green stat sheet isn't gonna wow you. If
you watch the game last night, you can't tell me
Draymond Green wasn't a major factor in the first half
especially that was the best. That was the best half
of basketball he's played, arguably in these playoffs. Yeah, that's
(10:55):
what the Warriors need from him. Clay Thompson had an
okay night, but Clay to Umpston also hit a couple
of threes when the Celtics were trying to claw their
way back into the game and said, Nope, not you
not today. The best way that I described it was
the first two wins for the Warriors in this series
were Steph Curry wins. Last night was a Warriors win.
They the entire team picked up the slack for Curry
(11:18):
not making a three pointer and really only having what
you have, sixteen points. That it was a team win
for the Golden State Warriors, whereas the other wins were
Steph willing them to victory. You know, it's interesting is
the narrative out there, And it's not like I listened
to all the shows, but I believe that pretty much
everyone's like, well, Golden States the better team, right that
that am I incorrect. There said that on ESPN today,
(11:40):
He's like, you know what, I picked the Celtics, but
I've learned that the Warriors are a better team. He
said that exactly who said that? And I think a
lot of people are now, But but I think that's
recency biased. I don't think that's necessarily the case exactly
because I can tell you what Vegas thinks, and Vegas
thinks nothing has changed. Vegas is like the home team
is laying for until we see otherwise and until the
(12:03):
series is over. And I expect the home team to
be laying four in Game six and end game seven.
Here um going forward saying day, you know, good effort
by Golden State game in Game five, and I've been
three good efforts by Golden State and two good efforts
by Boss. Now, I don't think anybody would be surprised
if the Celtics win Game six and we're heading back
to Sandrancisco for a Game seven. Me personally, I wouldn't
(12:24):
be surprised if the Celtics win Game seven. I mean,
I picked the Celtics before the series. I'm standing by
the Celtics pick in that first half. You want to
talk about Steph not making a three pointer. The Celtics
couldn't make a three pointer. They couldn't hit water and
drop out of a boat like these. They missed every
shot they took, and in the third quarter much better.
Six of eight right from three point range in the
(12:46):
third quarter, or six of nine, whatever it was, and
they just lost a touch in the fourth quarter. So
they got the same open looks. They were getting the
same looks that they got in the first half and
the third quarter. The difference was in the third quarter
they made the shots. Well. A J feels there's something
intrinsically wrong with the Celtics star though I do, and listen,
(13:07):
we're gonna get to that. We'll take our first break,
and when we come back, I'm gonna talk about Jayson
Tatum and why I think Jason Tatum is running on
fumes right now, and there's some numbers that will back
it up. We'll get to that when I'm a J.
Hopp and he's Steve Fezick, he's Scott Seidenberg. This is
the pregame show you've always wanted right here on Fox
(13:27):
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(13:54):
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Straight out of Vegas. Here on the strip ninety degrees.
The neon, what's the new? Neon is counting the cards?
The neon is account that it's gonna get kicked right
out of town? All right? St that Steve Fezzi, Scott
(14:15):
Seedinberg in with me and before the break we tease
what I think is wrong with Jayson Tatum. And if
you go back, this is where I get into r
J mode. I'm gonna give a little dissertation for a
little while. You go back to the start of the season.
(14:36):
Jayson Tatum plays a career high minutes in the regular season,
then goes to the bubble, plays forty point six minutes
per game in the Bubble, more than anybody in the Bubble.
He plays the most minutes in the playoffs. They lose
the conference finals. At the end of September, he gets
two months off season, starts right back up. So get
(14:59):
to to I mean us and everybody had a short
off season, right, I wish I'd get two months off.
It feels like you've got that coming up, I think.
Uh So he goes into that season early January. He
misses five games with COVID. He's got a bad case.
He talks about he's having a hard time getting oxygen
(15:20):
into his lungs. He starts using an inhaler. You know
what the Celtics say, now keep on running, big dog career,
high minutes. Let's go. They lose in the first round.
It's probably great news for Jason Tatumy's like, finally I
get a break. Now you don't get a break, actually,
because right after you lose, guess what you got? Olympic
(15:42):
training camp, get started, pal Olympic training camp, then the Olympics.
Four exhibition games, six Olympic games. He's a key part
of the Olympic team. He's so now he's got no offseason.
He finally gets that back from Tokyo, gets six weeks,
six weeks they give him. Then he starts back up.
So what happens this year? New career high in minutes.
(16:05):
We're gonna keep on pushing him. He played. Of all
players with who played at least seventy games, he had
the second most minutes per game this year, thirty five
point nine, only behind Damar de Rosen. Now we get
to the playoffs, nine and forty three minutes more than
anybody in these playoffs have played forty one minutes per game.
They had an intense series with the Nets. Only goes
(16:27):
four games, but he was playing nearly every minute of them.
They must wins. Then they go seven with the Bucks,
seven with the Heat. This guy's gassed since he came
into the league. The list of players who have played
more games then Jayson Tatum doesn't exist. He's played the
(16:49):
most regular season in playoffs four hundred and thirty eight games.
Nicola Yoki has played eighteen less games. He's played just
short of fifteen thousand minutes in those five seasons. That's
about eight hundred minutes more than the second place guy,
(17:09):
James Harden. The gap from one to two is bigger
than the gap from number two to number eight. This
guy is playing more basketball right now in a three year,
three season span. I won't say three years because it
hasn't been three real years in three seasons span, then
(17:30):
probably anyone's ever played basketball in that time. McKenzie, you
have an argument against that. No, I've never seen anything
like it, the usage for this guy. And I know, listen,
he's twenty four years old, and I know every old
person likes to say if I were twenty four, I'd
play every day. Listen, this guy is out there banging
(17:52):
around with the best athletes in the world. Four hundred
and thirty eight times he's gone out there and laced
him up in the last five seasons. That's not even
counting Olympic time. That's not counting training camp or preseason games.
Even if you're twenty four years old, your body starts
to develop where and tear. You're not going You need
(18:14):
real rest, you need a real off season, and Jayson
Tatum hasn't had one since the end of nineteen season.
I appreciate your research. Um, you know it's it's a
well thought out, lucid, intelligent objection overruled. That's my cousin
Viney quote. Um. We used to argue, we say the
(18:35):
same thing about Lebron James, Right, Lebron James going to
the NBA Finals every year. Then he's on the Olympic
team winning a gold medal in twelve. In between that run,
he's playing more basketball than anybody on the planet and
still no effect. Guy balled out the finals, MVP, all
that fun stuff. Jason Tatum. I mean, yeah, in the
(18:56):
fourth quarter, he looked something was off with him, right,
he was, you know, airballing shots and whatnot. But is
it at the feel like that's the first time we're
even questioning his fatigue or or injury. I mean, any
earlier in this series are we talking about him not
looking right? Says You're both over ruled. It's an outstanding
(19:18):
and I'm impressed fight and Scott, you bring up great
points about Lebron and the like. But the bottom line
is where where was all of this fifteen thousand minute
fatigue when he was winning the series against Milwaukee and
against Miami, especially as the series got deeper and deeper
and dude was bowing. I think it's I think we're
making this way too complicated. I just don't think Tatum
(19:40):
is healthy. I think he's an injury and we're gonna
find out about it after the series is over. Well,
this is I think where it's becoming an issue because playing,
you know, playing forty four minutes in the finals is
not like unheard of. Here's what they're doing though, So
Tatum and Brown both played over to only one and
a half minutes in the first half. They both get
(20:03):
their breaks in the first quarter, so they played the
entire second quarter, the entire third quarter, and the entire
fourth quarter to the last minute when they put in
scrubs to like the way that the Warriors have worked
with Steph Curry, twelve minutes in the first quarter, start
on the bench in the second, twelve minutes in the third,
start on the bench in the fourth. And do you
(20:24):
think Steve Kurs saying, well, what if we're up, what
if we're down in the fourth. No, it's it's like clockwork.
Steph is sitting the start of the fourth, She's playing
all twelve in the first and the third. This is desperation.
They're saying, we're running you ragged right now. Well, we
also know the Celtics are not a deep team. They
only played two, maybe three guys off the bend. There,
three guys comes in there, three guys last night. All
(20:46):
three were awful, awful, So they can't rely on that depth.
But I think you bring up an interesting point about Emaodoka,
and that's his rotations and his use of substitutions, and
but I think the greater point is his use of
Robert Williams, not Jason Tatum, because I'll make the argument
Robert Williams is the most valuable player in these NBA Finals.
(21:09):
Love Robert Williams. That was the biggest change. Everyone wants
to know what was the change in the Celtics from
January on. It was the way that Email DOCA changed
Robert Williams's position from going from a primary rim defender
to then being able to help out on the perimeter
and you know, just utilizing him more so than just
(21:31):
staying as the rim protector. People talk about Marcus Smart
defensive player of the year. Robert Williams is the better
defender on the Celtics, and if Robert Williams doesn't get hurt,
Marcus Smart doesn't win Defensive Player of the Year. Because
Robert Williams gets hurt, Marcus Smart still picks up the
slack excuse me, And now everyone's like, oh, well, that's
a defensive player of the Year. Because look at the
best defensive team and he's the player. But Robert Williams
(21:53):
is still playing. Marcus Smart doesn't win that award, might
go to my Jaren Jackson Jr. Six to one and
might to cash that. But I'm not better at all.
But Robert Williams in these in this NBA Finals, I'll
give you the numbers here because they're staggering when it
comes to how much they are outscoring the Warriors with
(22:13):
him on the floor, outscoring the Warriors by thirty one
points in a hundred and twenty six minutes and being
outscored by forty two points in a hundred and fourteen
minutes when he's off the floor. He was the only
starter last night that was not a negative and plus minus.
He was plus eleven, whereas every other starter Tatum minus thirteen,
(22:35):
Horford minus nineteen, Jalen Brown minus nineteen. What email Duca
needs to do in Game six, ideally played the guy
forty minutes, but I don't know if he can. But
what he needs to do is when they go to
their bench and go to one big on the floor,
it can't be out Horford. It has to be Robert
(22:55):
Williams on the floor with the smaller lineup. I also
think that Udoka is running his running his guys into
the ground early is not the move. And we saw
last night we actually had concerned it's about Steph and
the way Kerr was using Steph like he was still
a youngster. Well, Steph maybe above these rules. This when
(23:18):
the fourth quarter hit. We we talked about at the
beginning of the show about Jordan Poole hitting that three
at the end of the third uh and that was
the start of a run. This was the first eight
and a half minutes. This is the play by play
for the Celtics of the fourth quarter. When it's winning time,
we we gotta have our best out there. Tatum MS
(23:40):
is a layup White mrs A three white MS is
a three. Smart misses a layup. Tatum turns it over,
Smart turns it over. Brown misses a three, Brown makes
a layup. Finally, well, I like it. It's all except
you're not making Tatum makes a couple of turns, makes
(24:01):
a couple of free throws. Then Brown turnover, Brown turnover,
Brown miss layup. Tatum miss turnovers are unbelievable? Is your stars.
By the time they got to the fourth quarter, not
having rested since the since the middle of the first
they were gassed, they had nothing left. And the Warriors
got good bench contributions last night. They're nothing like other worldly,
(24:26):
but they were good. It's predictive. We're gonna see this
in game six. Are we just gonna go right back
to well? Let me tell let me, let me tell
you about the turnovers. Celtics had eighteen turnovers last night.
They're now one in seven when they turned the ball
over sixteen or more times in these playoffs. Last night,
the Warriors scored twenty two points off of those turnovers.
The Warriors. This is according to the Allied Sports Bureau.
(24:47):
The Warriors one and three points off of turnovers are
the most by any team through the first five games
of an NBA Finals since the Chicago Bulls. And here's
what I know, Fez, When when it's a games, an
elimination game, if you're the Celtics, in your backs are
against the wall, that's not the time when you expand
your rotation. I know that. I know, like, you're not
(25:09):
gonna suddenly find some other guy on the bench to
give minutes too. And last night Grant Williams got sixteen minutes.
Derek White got twenty one, Peyton Pritchard got five. Nobody
else got anything until the last minute of the game
when it was over. Grant Williams head about as bad
of a sixteen minutes on the floor as you could.
(25:30):
He scores three points. He was minus eighteen on plus
minus Derek White one point in twenty one minutes. And
Andrew Wiggins humiliated him, molt he bodied him. This is
Derek whiteh has been a great defender in this series.
Andrew Wiggins made him look like a clown. And Peyton
(25:51):
Pritchard chucks up three threes, gets benched, doesn't see the
floor again. So are you gonna ask? I just mentioned
Tatum at what what his workload has been? Al Horford's
eighty years old. Robert Williams has one leg, Like, who
are you gonna put minutes on if it's not these
(26:11):
five guys. You know, I'm processing this information and you're saying,
you know the rotation is slim for Boston and Scott.
You're talking about how it's becoming very well known if
the Celtics don't turn the ball over, they win. Would
this not all lead us to a game six under?
Because shortly the Celtics their number one focus is going
to be turned the ball over, which means will be
more careful on offense, which should slow the ball down.
(26:33):
Now here's my only issue with that. Celtics last night.
Eleven of thirty two from three point range, all right,
that was not good. They had a great third quarter,
not terrible, not good, But I think the third quarter
is what helped it out. When you go six of
eight in the third quarter. Excuse the number of those. Yes,
the Warriors were nine of forty from the three point range.
(26:56):
Stephan Curry ain't gonna go oh of nine again. Should
have made fourteen or fifteen? Yes, they're not so from
three again. So this game did finish with one hundred
and ninety eight points, probably should have finished with two
hundred and twenty. You know, if you think about the
Warriors making a couple of these threes and maybe the
Celtics not turning the ball over so much, times three
(27:17):
is eighteen more points. Listen, MGN. We looked at shot
quality for Steph Curry. What did shot quality say? Steph
should have put up last night? Very close, Scott. There
should have been two hundred and seventeen points by shot
quality last night and what about what about still would
have gone over? The two eleven Step was expected to
score twenty eight points in the game and he scored sixteen.
And I'm I'm with you. I'm scared of the under.
(27:38):
Ckenzie has done some great research on that under the
when you go to game six, the odds makers no
games late deeper and serious games go under. They dropped
the total usually two and that points. They didn't do it.
Are that total still to ten? And yet despite dropping
that total in game sixty seven percent of all games
six is have gone under. Well, the play for me
is going to be the same as it was in
every game of the series. It's the second half under
(28:00):
and anything last night was one oh seven and a half.
I know burned me, but before that, the game before that,
Game four was one oh five. Like, you give me
anything north of one oh five to one ten, it's
a hammer spot. For give me the fourth quarter under
that we don't have to sweat over time and I
also get some some time without Curry. The last the
last fourth, last three fourth quarters. Be sure to catch
(28:24):
live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six
pm Eastern, three pm Pacific, Fox Sports Radio I'm a J. Hoffman.
Thank you, Dan. We're talking about the Warriors Celtics Game five,
and the fascinating thing is, all along we've been saying
these teams are equal teams. And we talked yesterday on
yesterday's show about now four points is pretty much standard
(28:47):
home court advantage. Now, these Warriors were minus four last night.
But we're only saying that because the series of every
spread is for We weren't saying that before. Were No. Yeah,
we thought three maybe three and a half of you
had a strong home court. The Celtic don't have a
strong home court and their four point favorites in Game
six and I get zigzag. We we've talked about that
a lot, and maybe this is a spot where you
(29:10):
get the Celtics best. I'm I'm with Scott. I I
I'm I said Warriors in seven. I still feel Warriors
in seven. I think it's almost a certainty that this
goes seven games. I mean, I especially especially if they
bring out Scott Foster the extent there. But no, I'm
(29:30):
with you because think about this. We know about the
Celtics record after a loss, right, how great they are
after a loss. They've not lost too straight for the
first time since when is it, mackenzie? January? Maybe? Yeah,
they lost one time twice and they rested other guys
since January, so this is the second time. All right, now,
we are they gonna lose three in a row. I
can't see it delay the money line, No, because the
(29:56):
spread hasn't mattered, and in the last sixty eight NBA
Finals game games where the spread has been six or below, Again,
how predictive is it's one. I actually think there's a
reason for that, that so much of this has just
come down to who makes their threes and who doesn't,
that they just aren't any closer. But that's not true.
Last night the Warriors didn't make any threes and they
(30:16):
went in a blowout. So maybe I can't explain the reason,
but that certainly is the reason in some games. But
you're right, it's like, for whatever the reason, as ardor
is shoes, the Grinch doesn't close. And I don't think
it matters uh in this game six because the Warriors
notoriously have not been good at closing out series on
the road, and if they are in a situation where
(30:39):
they are down at the end of the fourth quarter,
they're gonna take the approach of we got Game seven
at home. They're not gonna sell out and try to
make this, you know, two point game with five seconds
left or whatever. I just I see them conceding. And
we've seen both of these teams concede at the end
of these games and these that's what the NBA has become,
(31:00):
right with these seven game series. We know this is
for the Celtics they have to sell out an elimination game.
But for the Warriors, we got Game seven at home.
That's right where we want to be. I think I'm
gonna have a best bet on the other side. I'm
not gonna say a percent, but I got a good
feeling I'm gonna have a best bet for Game six.
On the other side of this break, Steve Fezick, Scott Seedinberg,
I'm a J. Hoffman. This is the pregame show you've
(31:22):
always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports
Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot
com and within the I Heart Radio app search f
s R to listen live. I'm a J. Hofman. We
(31:49):
are straight out of Vegas. We've spent a lot of
time rehashing Game five, talking about what could have been,
what might have been, what was what wasn't. Game six
on Thursday, so we'll have more time before we before
we actually get to that game. But I'm gonna go
ahead and lay out the best bet now. I think, Steve,
you've got one as well. I talked in in the
(32:12):
last segment about Jayson Tatum and the wear on him,
and I think, I know, you guys kind of papued
my my numbers and that's okay. Your numbers were really strong.
I think that this shows up in the turnovers where
the Celtics are struggled with turnovers. Anyway, the usage for
(32:34):
Jason Tatum is not going to go down. The ball
is going to be in his hands more and more
and more. He's not gonna play. He's played the most
minutes the last two games. They're not gonna suddenly say, well,
elimination game, let's let's rest him. No, they are going
to put the ball in his hands. His turnover number
is set at three and a half. I'm gonna go
over three and a half turnovers in game six. He
(32:58):
had listen, he's averaging three and a half in the
series a little over three and a half. He's averaging
five in the last two games. I think that this
wear and tear and this extra usages is a factor,
and I think that that shows its head rears his
head on Thursday. He has more turnovers now in this
(33:18):
postseason than any player in NBA postseason history. You know,
I hear that a lot, and then and then when
you look at the list of guys that he's passed,
it's like Lebron Kobe Shack, It's like all these all
time legends, and it's like, well, yeah, I mean, when
you've got the ball a lot, guess what you're gonna
You're gonna turn the ball over. The more you're used,
the more likely you are to have turnovers. So that
(33:40):
doesn't surprise me at all. Uh, And I think he'll
pad his turnover lead in this game. What do you
got fort Fest? Well, when Tatum is turning the ball over,
I sure hope he's throwing the ball out of bounds
and not to Golden State because I am on the
under to ten and a half. I've seen this movie
over and over and over again. I should say under
and under and under again. When you get to game six,
(34:02):
in game seven, the pace of the game slow as
players just don't take the speculative shots early in the
shot clock clock. They're more careful with the ball typically
because the magnitude of the games is so darn important.
How important? If you just compare games five to game six,
all things being equal, the game six totals should be
(34:22):
about four and a half points lower. The odds makers
did not adjust their opener here. I bet the opener
which was too eleven, and it's moved, but not much
under to ten and a half. Best bet in a
game that I expect both squads will be more conservative
and than they typically are in the playoffs, and mine
would be along those lines. But it's the second half
on there, uh and if you'll wait to see what
(34:45):
the line is when you get to the half. But
just predicting it right now based off the first half
total first half totals one oh six point five game
totals to ten and a half predictive second half one
oh four, I'm expecting it to be north of one
oh four. It was one oh seven and a a half
half last game it was one o five. The game
before it was one oh was it one a three?
(35:06):
One all three and a half the game before that,
uh second half unders to play. Should expect to see
around one on four and a half one oh five,
I think on that second half and depending on how
the first half plays out. And I like that, and
I think doubled down. If the third quarter is a
high scoring third quarter, then you go ahead and you
hit the fourth quarter. We talked about it earlier. Forty
nine points in Game five fourth quarter, forty seven in
game for thirty four in Game three. One thing that
(35:28):
we haven't talked about and we were we've talked about
after every game of this series because it's been a
lot of flipping and flopping, but the series price, what's
the what what kind of comeback are we looking at
on the Celtics now? McKenzie plus three hundred minus three
seventy laying it for the Warriors, and what is the
current market for Stephen Curry to win the MVP Award?
Minus three is our consensus? Okay, alright, money line roll
(35:53):
over on the Celtics, Okay, And I think you're right.
We talked about you play that out. It's plus three
eighty about and you're getting more value than the Celtics
on the come back here. We talked about this in
pre production and you guys had a bet on this before,
on if Steph Curry, if the if the Celtics win
the series, could Steph Curry be the m v P? What? What? What?
What were your I feel like last night was probably
(36:19):
a step in the wrong direction, but it was looking
like a real possibility for a minute for step to win.
I still think there's a good six percent chance. Well
it's better than I still not gonna win, but I
think but I got value here. Yeah, can you eat
value at the question? Let's let's think about this. If
the Celtics win Game six, those m v P odds,
(36:40):
what would you make them? Where does it change? What
depends on I mean, what Steph do. Steph has an
average Steph game, He's not gonna go for forty three,
but as you know, twenty six or so Tatum does
for Golden State Game seven, they'll be milus one sixty
and what Golden statele I think that's about that's fair,
and then Tatum would be if you'll go from plus
four hundred to plus one forty. The proxy for Tatum
(37:03):
nor as long as it is he doesn't have a
bad game normal eight points, same thing, then he'll be
what the proxy is for the Celtics to win that game.
Jason Tatum's point total is set at twenty eight and
a half for Game six. He hasn't done that yet.
You haven't done that since Game six of the Miami series.
So they're expect I mean, we talked about his usage
going up. They're expecting more though, uh from from Jayson
(37:26):
Tatum in game six. Mackenzie, if you bet Jayson tatums,
if you bet over on his points prop in every
game so far, what are you sitting at one and
four with the Tatum overs? That's not good. It feels
like going five if it doesn't like five, So um,
I guess it really just boils down to do you
think that Jayson Tatum has more? Because I think we
(37:48):
all agree. If Jayson Tatum doesn't play great, the Celtics
aren't winning. You know, it's fascinating because you've got all
those minutes he played, But yet the Finals is interminable
and far in terms of how many days off we have.
Surely it's twenty five year old guy shouldn't be feeling
the effects of it, you would think so, all right,
that's gonna do it for today's show. If you missed
(38:09):
any of the show, you can check out the podcast
at Fox Sports radio dot com. We appreciate when you
do that. We're go back tomorrow, six eastern, three o'clock
Vegas time. We spend a lot of time reviewing. We're
gonna do a lot more previewing tomorrow, and I guarante,
I'm gonna guarantee right now, we're gonna work in some
NFL conversation tomorrow. We might even talk about the soccer field,
(38:31):
the World Cup. The US makes it sixty six to one.
We'll get Fez is true odds tomorrow if you can
believe it all right, He's Steve Fezzi, Scott Seedinberg, I'm
a J. Hoffman. We are straight out of Vegas, right
here on Fox Sports Radio.
I'm a J. Hoffman with the sports betting headlines for Tuesday.
Golden State Warriors pull away in the fourth quarter, win
and cover against the Celtics a three to lead in
a quote unquote bad Curry game. We're gonna discuss that
with their season on the line Thursday, Vegas has installed
(00:20):
the Celtics as four point favorite, so no adjustment to
the team's just flip the flip the home court four
point difference. Here comes a full hour of the Vegas
Truth covering all that and more. You don't listening to
Fox Sports Vegas home. This is straight out of Vegas
with the voice of Vegas, your host r J the
(00:56):
three game show America has always wanted from the Vegas Trap.
Here's r J Bow That's right, not quite. I'm a J.
(01:18):
Hoffman in for r J. Bell Live in Vegas, Live
on a Tuesday on two FSR stations around the Great
Great Nation. In studio with me today the only two
time Super Contest champion, Mr Steve Fezzic, Hello Steve Black. Tuesday.
After the game last night, we'll discuss that and from
(01:41):
Vegas Sports and Information at Work. Mr Scott Seidenberg joins us.
Scott how are you friends? So I guess it's garbage
bag day. I'll pack my stuff. Yeah, listen, we were
wrong about the game last night. Fas, let's start there.
Every everything that we projected, Nope, had the first quarter,
oh or Boston couldn't make any threes and couldn't make
(02:03):
anything that had no chance to cover. And guess what
we also, I had my best bet Boston first half
plus two. Again, not making any threes didn't help that one,
and then the trifecta here had we had Golden State
third quarter. Golden State is crushed all playoffs long in
(02:23):
this series and frankly the past five years. This may
have been the worst third quarter Golden State has played.
Despite their stellar game. Well, let's talk about this because
there's a lot of things that happened last night that
had you said this before the game, no one thinks
this is the result for those who are are living
(02:44):
in a cave somewhere. The Golden State Warriors one oh
four winners last night, no problem winning the game. There
was a time in the third quarter where the Celtics said, Okay,
we're to make it close, and I think there was
a Jalen Brown and one right, right, near the end
(03:07):
of the third quarter. Then Jordan's pool goes down and
he's a three at the buzzer, and I think that
was the start of like a thirteen nothing run. And
what we'll get into the fourth quarter for the Celtics
here in a bit. But if I told you Steph
Curry is going to have the worst shooting night of
his playoffs, he is not going to make a three
(03:30):
for the first time since dinosaurs roamed the earth. Jason Tatum,
it's going to put up and the Celtics are going
to avoid what's been their downfall this entire series, that's
getting smacked around by the Warriors in the third quarter.
So I tell you Curry shoots terribly. Tatum puts up
(03:52):
twenty seven, close to expectation for the finally, and the
Celtics not only win the third quarter, dominate the third quarter.
You ever think in the result at a ten point
Warriors win. Never you have to be pre production, what
percent of my bank roll would I bet? And off
the top of I said, you know, I'm gonna mend
that I think the Celtics, given those um events occurred,
(04:18):
cover eighty percent of the time. If you have a bet,
your edge is over fifty and so Kelly criterion. That's
what the math geeks used to bet size. You would
bet half of your bank roll, which would leave my
wife very unhappy. I got stung. I had I bet
the Celtics in the second half and bet the under
(04:40):
in the second half of the second half. Unders have
been extremely profitable in these NBA finals and in these playoffs.
Are you laid two and a half, laid two and
a half and one oh seven and a half and
it finished Celtical in the second half by two second
half total landed at one oh eight. Nothing shows how
it's more important to have multiple outs than that those
(05:00):
You know what, I'm not saying because I didn't follow
it close enough. I'm not saying that you could have
turned those losses into wins, but you probably could have
turned the losses into pushes with just enough out. Especially
I'm sure on that on the total we talked about
that pre production that that, especially in Vegas, it's always
a half point higher at the square ball books. I
don't want to embarrass anyone like the station casinos or
(05:22):
South Points or place like oh never never, no, no.
They just cater to recreational betters more than the Sharp
Bears like first, like Circuit does. Yeah, and and you know,
watching the way the Celtics came out in that third quarter,
I felt great and feel great about the total because
there was fifty nine point scored in that third quarter.
But I did expect the fourth quarter to tighten up,
especially in a game five. And look at what we
see in the past two fourth quarters prior to last night.
(05:45):
We're forty seven points and what thirty four points in
the other one, So you knew it was gonna be
a much lower scoring fourth quarter. And it turns out
we did only have we had forty nine, so we're still,
you know, we not high scoring, but it was lower,
lower scoring than you needed it to be for the total.
And I kept thinking about that final three pointer by
Luke Cornett at the end. That didn't bother me, fays.
(06:07):
What bothered me was the Jordan Pool buzzer beater at
the end of the third. So freeze that there's two
seconds left and Pool doesn't mean about the ball yet
they're looking to pass it to him. The probability Golden
State scores probably gonna be a three at that point.
What do you think, like seven something like that. Maybe
think now, the reason why I party done it now
this is the second time in this series, right. The
(06:28):
reason why I bring that up is because, as a
j mentioned, that was the start of the turnaround in
the second half of the Golden State Warriors. And yes,
that cost me my bet both ways on the Celtics
and the total in the second half. But I think
it also costs the Celtics the game because if he
doesn't make that shot, they win that third quarter by
fifteen points and they have themselves a nice little building
(06:54):
block here to go into the fourth quarter with the
moment momentum. Instead, Jordan Pools single handily with that shot,
sent Golden State back into the game and in my opinion,
erased all of the good that Boston did in that
third quarter. It kind of reminds me of Game three,
where the Celtics were dominating the game and then there's
(07:16):
a big run by by Curry and they get back
in that game and it looks like, oh, they're the
third quarter, they dominate their back in this game, and
in the fourth quarter they rolled over and died. I
mean it made that without that pool shot, That's what
you're hoping half to think about this. So so, okay,
the Celtics were down twelve and a half, right, and
(07:36):
at that point they wound up winning the third quarter
by eleven. So let's say they win the third quarter
by fourteen instead of eleven. Now they're up two points
going into the fourth quarter instead of being down one.
You almost saw it with the body language pool after
he made the shot. I think what was the high
five five and the fake clingtons in the second round
(07:58):
that hangs out, you know, with the at the primo seats,
but you could see it almost in the body language.
We're okay, we still got the lead. Or okay, let's
start with there's the big narrative is the Celtics lost
the bad Curry game. You can't recover from that. That
was the bad Steph Curry game? Or was it the
(08:18):
good Andrew Wiggins game. I think it was a bad
shooting game for Steph. I thought Steph played really well.
I like, I mean, obviously it would have been nice
to see him make some threes. And you you was
you kind of equate Steph shooting well to Steph playing well.
But Steph hit a couple of floaters. Steph played really
solid defense, say what you want. Step is not a
(08:40):
terrible defensive player anymore. Uh. When when they were on
the when he was on the floor, that the Warriors
were plus fifteen, he had eight to one assist to
turnover ratio. That's not a bad game. It's just not
He had a bad shooting game. It was easily made
up for by the rest of the Warriors, particularly through Wiggins.
Who listen, We've talked about this before about fit and
(09:07):
culture of a team. Andrew Wiggins found the right place.
Andrew Wiggins was never a bad basketball player. And Andrew
Wiggins was put in a role that made him put
up a bunch of empty numbers. And now he's in
a role and he's part of something bigger and he's
able to shine. When you say, hey, don't worry about
being our leading score. Just go out there and play
(09:28):
tough defense. Hey, don't don't worry about you know, getting
you know this mini rebounds. Just go They're just saying, hey,
do what you do. Here's your role. He knows his role.
It's never Hey, Andrew Wiggins, go out there and be
our best player every night and hope that we win
a bunch of games. Which that's what it was in Minnesota.
Let's face it, Andrew, we need you to win a
bunch of games. Go. This is a young kid. This
(09:49):
is a guy who was young in his career. That's
not how you get good at basketball. It is how
you get a big contract by average three points a game.
But let me tell you something. Do you think Andrew
wigg his value is more now that he's played this
season with the Warriors, or had he kept doing what
he was doing in Minnesota putting up a bunch of
empty number. I would say now it feels like now
(10:10):
Wiggins is like a guy who you can build a
team around and win a title. Like if I would
have never thought that before he came to Golden State.
I agree with that, and I think he'll capitalize on
that as well in terms of the value and what
you know, he's going to get paid the rest of
his career. You see the old Jason Tatum tweet that
was dug up someone. They found an old tweet from
Jason Tatum where he said Jabari Parker is better than
(10:32):
Andrew Wiggins. Well, now he knows. Draymond Green comes out,
it comes back from the dead, and again you're not
gonna Draymond Green stat sheet isn't gonna wow you. If
you watch the game last night, you can't tell me
Draymond Green wasn't a major factor in the first half
especially that was the best. That was the best half
of basketball he's played, arguably in these playoffs. Yeah, that's
(10:55):
what the Warriors need from him. Clay Thompson had an
okay night, but Clay to Umpston also hit a couple
of threes when the Celtics were trying to claw their
way back into the game and said, Nope, not you
not today. The best way that I described it was
the first two wins for the Warriors in this series
were Steph Curry wins. Last night was a Warriors win.
They the entire team picked up the slack for Curry
(11:18):
not making a three pointer and really only having what
you have, sixteen points. That it was a team win
for the Golden State Warriors, whereas the other wins were
Steph willing them to victory. You know, it's interesting is
the narrative out there, And it's not like I listened
to all the shows, but I believe that pretty much
everyone's like, well, Golden States the better team, right that
that am I incorrect. There said that on ESPN today,
(11:40):
He's like, you know what, I picked the Celtics, but
I've learned that the Warriors are a better team. He
said that exactly who said that? And I think a
lot of people are now, But but I think that's
recency biased. I don't think that's necessarily the case exactly
because I can tell you what Vegas thinks, and Vegas
thinks nothing has changed. Vegas is like the home team
is laying for until we see otherwise and until the
(12:03):
series is over. And I expect the home team to
be laying four in Game six and end game seven.
Here um going forward saying day, you know, good effort
by Golden State game in Game five, and I've been
three good efforts by Golden State and two good efforts
by Boss. Now, I don't think anybody would be surprised
if the Celtics win Game six and we're heading back
to Sandrancisco for a Game seven. Me personally, I wouldn't
(12:24):
be surprised if the Celtics win Game seven. I mean,
I picked the Celtics before the series. I'm standing by
the Celtics pick in that first half. You want to
talk about Steph not making a three pointer. The Celtics
couldn't make a three pointer. They couldn't hit water and
drop out of a boat like these. They missed every
shot they took, and in the third quarter much better.
Six of eight right from three point range in the
(12:46):
third quarter, or six of nine, whatever it was, and
they just lost a touch in the fourth quarter. So
they got the same open looks. They were getting the
same looks that they got in the first half and
the third quarter. The difference was in the third quarter
they made the shots. Well. A J feels there's something
intrinsically wrong with the Celtics star though I do, and listen,
(13:07):
we're gonna get to that. We'll take our first break,
and when we come back, I'm gonna talk about Jayson
Tatum and why I think Jason Tatum is running on
fumes right now, and there's some numbers that will back
it up. We'll get to that when I'm a J.
Hopp and he's Steve Fezick, he's Scott Seidenberg. This is
the pregame show you've always wanted right here on Fox
(13:27):
Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions of Straight
Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three pm
Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart Radio
app with intervention out against I'm a j Hoppin. We
(13:54):
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Straight out of Vegas. Here on the strip ninety degrees.
The neon, what's the new? Neon is counting the cards?
The neon is account that it's gonna get kicked right
out of town? All right? St that Steve Fezzi, Scott
(14:15):
Seedinberg in with me and before the break we tease
what I think is wrong with Jayson Tatum. And if
you go back, this is where I get into r
J mode. I'm gonna give a little dissertation for a
little while. You go back to the start of the season.
(14:36):
Jayson Tatum plays a career high minutes in the regular season,
then goes to the bubble, plays forty point six minutes
per game in the Bubble, more than anybody in the Bubble.
He plays the most minutes in the playoffs. They lose
the conference finals. At the end of September, he gets
two months off season, starts right back up. So get
(14:59):
to to I mean us and everybody had a short
off season, right, I wish I'd get two months off.
It feels like you've got that coming up, I think.
Uh So he goes into that season early January. He
misses five games with COVID. He's got a bad case.
He talks about he's having a hard time getting oxygen
(15:20):
into his lungs. He starts using an inhaler. You know
what the Celtics say, now keep on running, big dog career,
high minutes. Let's go. They lose in the first round.
It's probably great news for Jason Tatumy's like, finally I
get a break. Now you don't get a break, actually,
because right after you lose, guess what you got? Olympic
(15:42):
training camp, get started, pal Olympic training camp, then the Olympics.
Four exhibition games, six Olympic games. He's a key part
of the Olympic team. He's so now he's got no offseason.
He finally gets that back from Tokyo, gets six weeks,
six weeks they give him. Then he starts back up.
So what happens this year? New career high in minutes.
(16:05):
We're gonna keep on pushing him. He played. Of all
players with who played at least seventy games, he had
the second most minutes per game this year, thirty five
point nine, only behind Damar de Rosen. Now we get
to the playoffs, nine and forty three minutes more than
anybody in these playoffs have played forty one minutes per game.
They had an intense series with the Nets. Only goes
(16:27):
four games, but he was playing nearly every minute of them.
They must wins. Then they go seven with the Bucks,
seven with the Heat. This guy's gassed since he came
into the league. The list of players who have played
more games then Jayson Tatum doesn't exist. He's played the
(16:49):
most regular season in playoffs four hundred and thirty eight games.
Nicola Yoki has played eighteen less games. He's played just
short of fifteen thousand minutes in those five seasons. That's
about eight hundred minutes more than the second place guy,
(17:09):
James Harden. The gap from one to two is bigger
than the gap from number two to number eight. This
guy is playing more basketball right now in a three year,
three season span. I won't say three years because it
hasn't been three real years in three seasons span, then
(17:30):
probably anyone's ever played basketball in that time. McKenzie, you
have an argument against that. No, I've never seen anything
like it, the usage for this guy. And I know, listen,
he's twenty four years old, and I know every old
person likes to say if I were twenty four, I'd
play every day. Listen, this guy is out there banging
(17:52):
around with the best athletes in the world. Four hundred
and thirty eight times he's gone out there and laced
him up in the last five seasons. That's not even
counting Olympic time. That's not counting training camp or preseason games.
Even if you're twenty four years old, your body starts
to develop where and tear. You're not going You need
(18:14):
real rest, you need a real off season, and Jayson
Tatum hasn't had one since the end of nineteen season.
I appreciate your research. Um, you know it's it's a
well thought out, lucid, intelligent objection overruled. That's my cousin
Viney quote. Um. We used to argue, we say the
(18:35):
same thing about Lebron James, Right, Lebron James going to
the NBA Finals every year. Then he's on the Olympic
team winning a gold medal in twelve. In between that run,
he's playing more basketball than anybody on the planet and
still no effect. Guy balled out the finals, MVP, all
that fun stuff. Jason Tatum. I mean, yeah, in the
(18:56):
fourth quarter, he looked something was off with him, right,
he was, you know, airballing shots and whatnot. But is
it at the feel like that's the first time we're
even questioning his fatigue or or injury. I mean, any
earlier in this series are we talking about him not
looking right? Says You're both over ruled. It's an outstanding
(19:18):
and I'm impressed fight and Scott, you bring up great
points about Lebron and the like. But the bottom line
is where where was all of this fifteen thousand minute
fatigue when he was winning the series against Milwaukee and
against Miami, especially as the series got deeper and deeper
and dude was bowing. I think it's I think we're
making this way too complicated. I just don't think Tatum
(19:40):
is healthy. I think he's an injury and we're gonna
find out about it after the series is over. Well,
this is I think where it's becoming an issue because playing,
you know, playing forty four minutes in the finals is
not like unheard of. Here's what they're doing though, So
Tatum and Brown both played over to only one and
a half minutes in the first half. They both get
(20:03):
their breaks in the first quarter, so they played the
entire second quarter, the entire third quarter, and the entire
fourth quarter to the last minute when they put in
scrubs to like the way that the Warriors have worked
with Steph Curry, twelve minutes in the first quarter, start
on the bench in the second, twelve minutes in the third,
start on the bench in the fourth. And do you
(20:24):
think Steve Kurs saying, well, what if we're up, what
if we're down in the fourth. No, it's it's like clockwork.
Steph is sitting the start of the fourth, She's playing
all twelve in the first and the third. This is desperation.
They're saying, we're running you ragged right now. Well, we
also know the Celtics are not a deep team. They
only played two, maybe three guys off the bend. There,
three guys comes in there, three guys last night. All
(20:46):
three were awful, awful, So they can't rely on that depth.
But I think you bring up an interesting point about Emaodoka,
and that's his rotations and his use of substitutions, and
but I think the greater point is his use of
Robert Williams, not Jason Tatum, because I'll make the argument
Robert Williams is the most valuable player in these NBA Finals.
(21:09):
Love Robert Williams. That was the biggest change. Everyone wants
to know what was the change in the Celtics from
January on. It was the way that Email DOCA changed
Robert Williams's position from going from a primary rim defender
to then being able to help out on the perimeter
and you know, just utilizing him more so than just
(21:31):
staying as the rim protector. People talk about Marcus Smart
defensive player of the year. Robert Williams is the better
defender on the Celtics, and if Robert Williams doesn't get hurt,
Marcus Smart doesn't win Defensive Player of the Year. Because
Robert Williams gets hurt, Marcus Smart still picks up the
slack excuse me, And now everyone's like, oh, well, that's
a defensive player of the Year. Because look at the
best defensive team and he's the player. But Robert Williams
(21:53):
is still playing. Marcus Smart doesn't win that award, might
go to my Jaren Jackson Jr. Six to one and
might to cash that. But I'm not better at all.
But Robert Williams in these in this NBA Finals, I'll
give you the numbers here because they're staggering when it
comes to how much they are outscoring the Warriors with
(22:13):
him on the floor, outscoring the Warriors by thirty one
points in a hundred and twenty six minutes and being
outscored by forty two points in a hundred and fourteen
minutes when he's off the floor. He was the only
starter last night that was not a negative and plus minus.
He was plus eleven, whereas every other starter Tatum minus thirteen,
(22:35):
Horford minus nineteen, Jalen Brown minus nineteen. What email Duca
needs to do in Game six, ideally played the guy
forty minutes, but I don't know if he can. But
what he needs to do is when they go to
their bench and go to one big on the floor,
it can't be out Horford. It has to be Robert
(22:55):
Williams on the floor with the smaller lineup. I also
think that Udoka is running his running his guys into
the ground early is not the move. And we saw
last night we actually had concerned it's about Steph and
the way Kerr was using Steph like he was still
a youngster. Well, Steph maybe above these rules. This when
(23:18):
the fourth quarter hit. We we talked about at the
beginning of the show about Jordan Poole hitting that three
at the end of the third uh and that was
the start of a run. This was the first eight
and a half minutes. This is the play by play
for the Celtics of the fourth quarter. When it's winning time,
we we gotta have our best out there. Tatum MS
(23:40):
is a layup White mrs A three white MS is
a three. Smart misses a layup. Tatum turns it over,
Smart turns it over. Brown misses a three, Brown makes
a layup. Finally, well, I like it. It's all except
you're not making Tatum makes a couple of turns, makes
(24:01):
a couple of free throws. Then Brown turnover, Brown turnover,
Brown miss layup. Tatum miss turnovers are unbelievable? Is your stars.
By the time they got to the fourth quarter, not
having rested since the since the middle of the first
they were gassed, they had nothing left. And the Warriors
got good bench contributions last night. They're nothing like other worldly,
(24:26):
but they were good. It's predictive. We're gonna see this
in game six. Are we just gonna go right back
to well? Let me tell let me, let me tell
you about the turnovers. Celtics had eighteen turnovers last night.
They're now one in seven when they turned the ball
over sixteen or more times in these playoffs. Last night,
the Warriors scored twenty two points off of those turnovers.
The Warriors. This is according to the Allied Sports Bureau.
(24:47):
The Warriors one and three points off of turnovers are
the most by any team through the first five games
of an NBA Finals since the Chicago Bulls. And here's
what I know, Fez, When when it's a games, an
elimination game, if you're the Celtics, in your backs are
against the wall, that's not the time when you expand
your rotation. I know that. I know, like, you're not
(25:09):
gonna suddenly find some other guy on the bench to
give minutes too. And last night Grant Williams got sixteen minutes.
Derek White got twenty one, Peyton Pritchard got five. Nobody
else got anything until the last minute of the game
when it was over. Grant Williams head about as bad
of a sixteen minutes on the floor as you could.
(25:30):
He scores three points. He was minus eighteen on plus
minus Derek White one point in twenty one minutes. And
Andrew Wiggins humiliated him, molt he bodied him. This is
Derek whiteh has been a great defender in this series.
Andrew Wiggins made him look like a clown. And Peyton
(25:51):
Pritchard chucks up three threes, gets benched, doesn't see the
floor again. So are you gonna ask? I just mentioned
Tatum at what what his workload has been? Al Horford's
eighty years old. Robert Williams has one leg, Like, who
are you gonna put minutes on if it's not these
(26:11):
five guys. You know, I'm processing this information and you're saying,
you know the rotation is slim for Boston and Scott.
You're talking about how it's becoming very well known if
the Celtics don't turn the ball over, they win. Would
this not all lead us to a game six under?
Because shortly the Celtics their number one focus is going
to be turned the ball over, which means will be
more careful on offense, which should slow the ball down.
(26:33):
Now here's my only issue with that. Celtics last night.
Eleven of thirty two from three point range, all right,
that was not good. They had a great third quarter,
not terrible, not good, But I think the third quarter
is what helped it out. When you go six of
eight in the third quarter. Excuse the number of those. Yes,
the Warriors were nine of forty from the three point range.
(26:56):
Stephan Curry ain't gonna go oh of nine again. Should
have made fourteen or fifteen? Yes, they're not so from
three again. So this game did finish with one hundred
and ninety eight points, probably should have finished with two
hundred and twenty. You know, if you think about the
Warriors making a couple of these threes and maybe the
Celtics not turning the ball over so much, times three
(27:17):
is eighteen more points. Listen, MGN. We looked at shot
quality for Steph Curry. What did shot quality say? Steph
should have put up last night? Very close, Scott. There
should have been two hundred and seventeen points by shot
quality last night and what about what about still would
have gone over? The two eleven Step was expected to
score twenty eight points in the game and he scored sixteen.
And I'm I'm with you. I'm scared of the under.
(27:38):
Ckenzie has done some great research on that under the
when you go to game six, the odds makers no
games late deeper and serious games go under. They dropped
the total usually two and that points. They didn't do it.
Are that total still to ten? And yet despite dropping
that total in game sixty seven percent of all games
six is have gone under. Well, the play for me
is going to be the same as it was in
every game of the series. It's the second half under
(28:00):
and anything last night was one oh seven and a half.
I know burned me, but before that, the game before that,
Game four was one oh five. Like, you give me
anything north of one oh five to one ten, it's
a hammer spot. For give me the fourth quarter under
that we don't have to sweat over time and I
also get some some time without Curry. The last the
last fourth, last three fourth quarters. Be sure to catch
(28:24):
live editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six
pm Eastern, three pm Pacific, Fox Sports Radio I'm a J. Hoffman.
Thank you, Dan. We're talking about the Warriors Celtics Game five,
and the fascinating thing is, all along we've been saying
these teams are equal teams. And we talked yesterday on
yesterday's show about now four points is pretty much standard
(28:47):
home court advantage. Now, these Warriors were minus four last night.
But we're only saying that because the series of every
spread is for We weren't saying that before. Were No. Yeah,
we thought three maybe three and a half of you
had a strong home court. The Celtic don't have a
strong home court and their four point favorites in Game
six and I get zigzag. We we've talked about that
a lot, and maybe this is a spot where you
(29:10):
get the Celtics best. I'm I'm with Scott. I I
I'm I said Warriors in seven. I still feel Warriors
in seven. I think it's almost a certainty that this
goes seven games. I mean, I especially especially if they
bring out Scott Foster the extent there. But no, I'm
(29:30):
with you because think about this. We know about the
Celtics record after a loss, right, how great they are
after a loss. They've not lost too straight for the
first time since when is it, mackenzie? January? Maybe? Yeah,
they lost one time twice and they rested other guys
since January, so this is the second time. All right, now,
we are they gonna lose three in a row. I
can't see it delay the money line, No, because the
(29:56):
spread hasn't mattered, and in the last sixty eight NBA
Finals game games where the spread has been six or below, Again,
how predictive is it's one. I actually think there's a
reason for that, that so much of this has just
come down to who makes their threes and who doesn't,
that they just aren't any closer. But that's not true.
Last night the Warriors didn't make any threes and they
(30:16):
went in a blowout. So maybe I can't explain the reason,
but that certainly is the reason in some games. But
you're right, it's like, for whatever the reason, as ardor
is shoes, the Grinch doesn't close. And I don't think
it matters uh in this game six because the Warriors
notoriously have not been good at closing out series on
the road, and if they are in a situation where
(30:39):
they are down at the end of the fourth quarter,
they're gonna take the approach of we got Game seven
at home. They're not gonna sell out and try to
make this, you know, two point game with five seconds
left or whatever. I just I see them conceding. And
we've seen both of these teams concede at the end
of these games and these that's what the NBA has become,
(31:00):
right with these seven game series. We know this is
for the Celtics they have to sell out an elimination game.
But for the Warriors, we got Game seven at home.
That's right where we want to be. I think I'm
gonna have a best bet on the other side. I'm
not gonna say a percent, but I got a good
feeling I'm gonna have a best bet for Game six.
On the other side of this break, Steve Fezick, Scott Seedinberg,
I'm a J. Hoffman. This is the pregame show you've
(31:22):
always wanted right here on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports
Radio has the best sports talk lineup in the nation.
Catch all of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot
com and within the I Heart Radio app search f
s R to listen live. I'm a J. Hofman. We
(31:49):
are straight out of Vegas. We've spent a lot of
time rehashing Game five, talking about what could have been,
what might have been, what was what wasn't. Game six
on Thursday, so we'll have more time before we before
we actually get to that game. But I'm gonna go
ahead and lay out the best bet now. I think, Steve,
you've got one as well. I talked in in the
(32:12):
last segment about Jayson Tatum and the wear on him,
and I think, I know, you guys kind of papued
my my numbers and that's okay. Your numbers were really strong.
I think that this shows up in the turnovers where
the Celtics are struggled with turnovers. Anyway, the usage for
(32:34):
Jason Tatum is not going to go down. The ball
is going to be in his hands more and more
and more. He's not gonna play. He's played the most
minutes the last two games. They're not gonna suddenly say, well,
elimination game, let's let's rest him. No, they are going
to put the ball in his hands. His turnover number
is set at three and a half. I'm gonna go
over three and a half turnovers in game six. He
(32:58):
had listen, he's averaging three and a half in the
series a little over three and a half. He's averaging
five in the last two games. I think that this
wear and tear and this extra usages is a factor,
and I think that that shows its head rears his
head on Thursday. He has more turnovers now in this
(33:18):
postseason than any player in NBA postseason history. You know,
I hear that a lot, and then and then when
you look at the list of guys that he's passed,
it's like Lebron Kobe Shack, It's like all these all
time legends, and it's like, well, yeah, I mean, when
you've got the ball a lot, guess what you're gonna
You're gonna turn the ball over. The more you're used,
the more likely you are to have turnovers. So that
(33:40):
doesn't surprise me at all. Uh, And I think he'll
pad his turnover lead in this game. What do you
got fort Fest? Well, when Tatum is turning the ball over,
I sure hope he's throwing the ball out of bounds
and not to Golden State because I am on the
under to ten and a half. I've seen this movie
over and over and over again. I should say under
and under and under again. When you get to game six,
(34:02):
in game seven, the pace of the game slow as
players just don't take the speculative shots early in the
shot clock clock. They're more careful with the ball typically
because the magnitude of the games is so darn important.
How important? If you just compare games five to game six,
all things being equal, the game six totals should be
(34:22):
about four and a half points lower. The odds makers
did not adjust their opener here. I bet the opener
which was too eleven, and it's moved, but not much
under to ten and a half. Best bet in a
game that I expect both squads will be more conservative
and than they typically are in the playoffs, and mine
would be along those lines. But it's the second half
on there, uh and if you'll wait to see what
(34:45):
the line is when you get to the half. But
just predicting it right now based off the first half
total first half totals one oh six point five game
totals to ten and a half predictive second half one
oh four, I'm expecting it to be north of one
oh four. It was one oh seven and a a half
half last game it was one o five. The game
before it was one oh was it one a three?
(35:06):
One all three and a half the game before that,
uh second half unders to play. Should expect to see
around one on four and a half one oh five,
I think on that second half and depending on how
the first half plays out. And I like that, and
I think doubled down. If the third quarter is a
high scoring third quarter, then you go ahead and you
hit the fourth quarter. We talked about it earlier. Forty
nine points in Game five fourth quarter, forty seven in
game for thirty four in Game three. One thing that
(35:28):
we haven't talked about and we were we've talked about
after every game of this series because it's been a
lot of flipping and flopping, but the series price, what's
the what what kind of comeback are we looking at
on the Celtics now? McKenzie plus three hundred minus three
seventy laying it for the Warriors, and what is the
current market for Stephen Curry to win the MVP Award?
Minus three is our consensus? Okay, alright, money line roll
(35:53):
over on the Celtics, Okay, And I think you're right.
We talked about you play that out. It's plus three
eighty about and you're getting more value than the Celtics
on the come back here. We talked about this in
pre production and you guys had a bet on this before,
on if Steph Curry, if the if the Celtics win
the series, could Steph Curry be the m v P? What? What? What?
What were your I feel like last night was probably
(36:19):
a step in the wrong direction, but it was looking
like a real possibility for a minute for step to win.
I still think there's a good six percent chance. Well
it's better than I still not gonna win, but I
think but I got value here. Yeah, can you eat
value at the question? Let's let's think about this. If
the Celtics win Game six, those m v P odds,
(36:40):
what would you make them? Where does it change? What
depends on I mean, what Steph do. Steph has an
average Steph game, He's not gonna go for forty three,
but as you know, twenty six or so Tatum does
for Golden State Game seven, they'll be milus one sixty
and what Golden statele I think that's about that's fair,
and then Tatum would be if you'll go from plus
four hundred to plus one forty. The proxy for Tatum
(37:03):
nor as long as it is he doesn't have a
bad game normal eight points, same thing, then he'll be
what the proxy is for the Celtics to win that game.
Jason Tatum's point total is set at twenty eight and
a half for Game six. He hasn't done that yet.
You haven't done that since Game six of the Miami series.
So they're expect I mean, we talked about his usage
going up. They're expecting more though, uh from from Jayson
(37:26):
Tatum in game six. Mackenzie, if you bet Jayson tatums,
if you bet over on his points prop in every
game so far, what are you sitting at one and
four with the Tatum overs? That's not good. It feels
like going five if it doesn't like five, So um,
I guess it really just boils down to do you
think that Jayson Tatum has more? Because I think we
(37:48):
all agree. If Jayson Tatum doesn't play great, the Celtics
aren't winning. You know, it's fascinating because you've got all
those minutes he played, But yet the Finals is interminable
and far in terms of how many days off we have.
Surely it's twenty five year old guy shouldn't be feeling
the effects of it, you would think so, all right,
that's gonna do it for today's show. If you missed
(38:09):
any of the show, you can check out the podcast
at Fox Sports radio dot com. We appreciate when you
do that. We're go back tomorrow, six eastern, three o'clock
Vegas time. We spend a lot of time reviewing. We're
gonna do a lot more previewing tomorrow, and I guarante,
I'm gonna guarantee right now, we're gonna work in some
NFL conversation tomorrow. We might even talk about the soccer field,
(38:31):
the World Cup. The US makes it sixty six to one.
We'll get Fez is true odds tomorrow if you can
believe it all right, He's Steve Fezzi, Scott Seedinberg, I'm
a J. Hoffman. We are straight out of Vegas, right
here on Fox Sports Radio.
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