January 10, 2020 • 40 mins
RJ Bell, Jonas Knox, and the rest of the Straight Outta Vegas crew breakdown the NFL Divisional round playoffs, explaining why they like really Kansas City over Houston, an overlooked aspect of the Baltimore Ravens and why they should be able to handle the Titans, and give out some best bets for the weekend!
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Don't listening to Fox Sports Rago. This is straight out
of Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your host, r
J Bow. Damn collection, the pregame show America has always
(00:29):
wanted from the Vegas Trip, Ear's r J Bow. You
heard it. I'm RJ live from Las Vegas to hundred
(00:50):
FSR stations across this great nation. And it's a big day,
Big big Friday. Yeah, pick Palooza. But it's the last time.
This is tire football season. There's four games in the
weekend at next week too, and then one that means
only three left after Sunday. Let's take advantage. Also, though,
(01:14):
just best bets are going to be strewn throughout the hour.
We're joining studio the pros who know full house, Brad Powers,
Steve Pezik, Sports betters listen for the money. Sports fans
listen to no more than their bodies. But you can't
have pros without Joe's He's in l A, He's Jones.
It's not always good to be here, r J. And Yes,
(01:35):
on a day in which we've got four games in
the NFL, We've got a quarterback making his playoff debut
in the National Football League, and pressure on some higher seeds.
What is the Vegas lead? I can't lie. There was
a little bit of contention on this one. Physic we
know what he wanted. Oh just connected it to say
(01:57):
I don't want to hear about my love of Jimmy
g But no, no, no, that's coming soon. We've got
We announced it yesterday, the r J Bell over Under
Division Round Total over under of the decade of the
two thousand and twenties, best one so far. And let's
get to it, guys. We go to Kansas City, the
Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. This is coming
(02:20):
up on Sunday right now on pregame dot com. The
Chiefs the home team, a nine and a half point favorite.
The total in this game on pregame dot com is
right now now. This total could be over or it
could be under. Let's break this game. I promise it's
one of the two. Let's break it down. Fez Number
(02:41):
one factor. If you just had not on the total
the whole game. If you just had one factor, that's
all you could share with the nation, what would it be?
Kansas City underrated. A big part of that the fact
that Mahomes missed three games and Frankly, quite a few
games Mahomes played he was not on. So that Kansas
City offense, it looks really good in the stats are
(03:02):
j but bottom line, it's even better than what the
underlying season long stats say because of those three games
with Matt Moore and those three games with the compromise Mahomes. Yeah,
I think that's one part of it. And you were
at the forefront when it came to talking about Kansas City,
like four or five weeks ago. Physic first one underrated
(03:25):
and the rationale at the time was listen when Mahomes
was healthy, first four games there were four now and
after that he was banged up. Then he was out,
then he was banged up coming back he got and
I listened. There's some subjectivity. It's like, it's not when
he wins the first game, is when he gets or
you know that wins that next when he's healthy. But
(03:45):
you could see it. I mean it was pretty visible.
I thought we could debate one game or the other,
but I thought it was pretty visible that he was hobbled.
So what you look for in the playoffs is a
time when the players, the team it's is better now
then it was across the season. So imagine a situation
(04:05):
of Tom Brady and his prime missed ten games. Right,
you could blend all those stats in, But would that
be the story or would it be how they play
when Brady was in there and how they play when
Mahomes was in there? Because he finished number two in
QBR this year, behind only Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees third.
(04:27):
By the way, for all those Drew Brees haters, and
by the way, Drew Brees had a better QBR the
last four or five games, and he did on the season.
It was still third best. But his arms tired. He's
too old. That's what I'm hearing on the different talk shows.
It doesn't make a lot of sense, But okay, all right.
I think there's another reason Kansas City's underrated, and that's
(04:47):
because of the defense. Brad. We talked about this in
college a bunch. If you have a new coordinator or
a new coach has multiple coordinators, even more so, that
are different. If all you did was faded team the
first third of the season with the new coordinator, pass
them the middle third, and then play on them the
(05:09):
last third. So pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, I think you're right there.
You totally agree because it's opposite of what the public does.
Because at the start of the season, the public there's
all this optimism, Hey, we got a new coordinator. The
last coordinator stuck. That's why we got rid of them
with this new guy. And that's why they're getting rid
of the guy. Most of the time, right, they're usually
(05:30):
not retiring like with the Nero doing the horses at
the end of casino, right, I mean, they're usually getting
run out of town. You bring the new guy in,
everyone's excited. Oh look they lost the game. Oh look
they didn't cover that game. Oh man, this guy is
no good. All right, Spagnolia is no good. But then
by the time they start getting kind of a parody
where they're they're kind of familiar with their own offense,
(05:52):
their own defense. That's when everyone's kind of off them.
And then there's that point where the turn happens where
they are now playing better than they had last season,
but the public is still pessimistic because this season hasn't
been great. As we got some numbers on this or
Brad whoever wants to jump in with them, if as
you got the last six games that Kansas City defense
(06:15):
has given up eleven and a half points per game.
How good is that? R J? Well, Number one in
the NFL year to date was the Patriots. They give
up fourteen per game. So that Kansas City d the
last six weeks has been better than any NFL team
in terms of preventing their opponents from scoring. And I
think the by was seven weeks back, and if you
roll that seventh game in, it's still very impressive. Now, Listen,
(06:36):
points per game can be deceiving, though ultimately in the
long run it matters probably the most, but in the
short run it can be deceiving. Quality of competition, red
zone efficiency of the opponent, which has a lot of luck. Yeah,
no doubt. But we looked at Football Outsiders d v
o A for the defense. Each of the eight games
(06:56):
or six games took the mean the average, and they
would have been eighth in football in the NFL, eighth
best defense. Now, if Kansas City has the eighth best defense, lookout,
you think, because where where's the offense? At number one?
You got him about Baltimore. I'd do it's close, but
(07:17):
K one, so Baltimore could be one two on offense.
I think you could debate it either way. And on defense,
Baltimore is wear for you. It's a top five d
also in Kansas City right in that same range, but
a little higher, you know, eighth. We're saying, yes, I mean,
these could be two of the best teams we've seen
(07:38):
in the decade. I mean, to me, this is probably
the best second best team I can remember in a while.
I mean anything jump out at you, just that Kansas City. No,
they're the best, second best team. They would be the
best team overall and over the last four years if
it was not for Baltimore. Oh so you have the
number on that you're saying right now, Kansas City's power
(07:59):
raiding Physics the Vegas perspective. You can get that when
it's released at physic Sports on Twitter. That's f e
z z i K at Physics Sports. And you're saying
that the rating on Casey right now is higher than
any other team has had in the last four years. Yes. Wow,
(08:19):
So we literally have the two best teams based on
Pheasis power ratings that we've had in the last four years. Jonas,
how many people think Kansas City is that good? I
think they've been under the radar for a little while.
Um I I've thought they were the most dangerous team
based on how the defense has played a lot of
the stuff that you guys have pointed out, and because
(08:41):
there's been such a hype on Baltimore and maybe a
little Mahomes fatigue, if there is such a thing. I
just feel like they've kind of flown under the radar.
I think it's that, and I think the reality is
if you look at the season, they didn't look like
the second best team a lot of the season. It's
just our ability to say this is what's different right here.
(09:02):
They've got their players, they've got their mature defense understanding
the scheme. Earlier, they didn't have either. First four games,
they had the offense, and they were still four now
even without Tyreek Hill. Remember he got hurt week when
he was out four games. Now, how many points have
you got him worth? Now he's worth the point A
full point. Yeah. So to me, now that said, I
(09:23):
think the Ravens are the better team. I really do.
I think. I mean, you look at the Ravens, you
look at the point differential, look at the A T
S margin nine and one against the spread last ten.
Since they got their defense solidified, and we'll be talking
about that I think this is the best team I've seen,
maybe since the two thousand seven undefeated Patriots. And I
(09:46):
don't think a short week for their opponent is the time.
It's not gonna be the time to figure out this
complex or this let's say a very unusual Baltimore offense.
All right, it's time, Mr j bo straight out of Vegas.
Now you could I don't know what division round games
you've bet this decade, but this is the best well total,
(10:10):
this is the best total you're gonna get. Now. I'm
having fun with it because we don't over sell, but
I will say this, this is probably one of my
five best bets of the year in the NFL. And
I like over fifty one over fifty one Kansas City
a couple of reasons. One, let's get to the obvious.
Andy Reid brad off of by outstanding and oftentimes you
(10:35):
see it on the offensive side. Yeah, over the over
his entire career, Andy Reid, going back to the Philadelphia
Days off of by sixty eight percent against the spread
r J pretty good. And and offensively is where they
pick up a lot of absolutely and you read more
of an offensive mind and coaching and exceeding expectations by
five and a half points per game. And you think
(10:57):
about it, You've got a Texans team. I wouldn't make
the case perhaps one of the five or so worst
playoff teams of the decade. I know that sounds like
a lot of people are gonna say, what they've been outgained.
Houston outgained on the season. The opponents have more yards
(11:17):
than the Texans. Now, usually if you get outgained, that's
not a good thing. So like, let's that got get
another twenty that's gonna help us now? And then in
in a given game, the yards can be deceiving. You know,
everyone would say with a couple remember that a Green
Bay game. Okay, but over sixteen games usually the best teams. Well,
(11:40):
by the way, Baltimore is number one and yard is differential.
San Francisco's number three. By the way, the Dallas Cowboys
are too right. Think about that a second. But additionally,
the Texans during the regular season, and even if you
had the playoff game, have been outscored. Now, listen, maybe
we're trying to make things to comp blacks, but the
(12:01):
idea that you give up more yards the Texans, do
you give up more points the Texans do. But somehow
you're great or even good. No, no, no, you're supposed
to be average at best. Now I know that the
Shawn lovers out there, and hey, listen, the guy's amazing.
During our podcast, Faz gave up play by play of
that play. I figure no one saw it. He was
(12:23):
given a play by play. We won't play that for
you because we like you. But if you look, have
we looked at his career yet? Did we look at
Deshaun one score game sixteen and eleven, including this year
where they're nine and three in one score games. So
let me see, sixty eleven is five. He's up six
this year. So he had a below five record and
(12:44):
one score games for his career. Okay games he started,
and now he goes nine and three in close games.
The Texans are eleven and six on the year. If
they had just gone fifty fifty like he'd done throughout
his career before this year, the Texans would be eight
and nine and they wouldn't have that ninth game, or
they wouldn't have that seventeenth game. Right, seven and nine exactly,
(13:05):
some ferry eight or eight and eight right at best.
So this is an eight and eight team. And if
you want to act like Deshaun Trump sat and why
hasn't he trumped prior? And we're gonna get to the
same argument with Seattle. Now, when you have a team
there's only been seven of them this century, when you
have a team which is been outscored on the year
(13:28):
and outyarded on the year, and they make the division round, right,
never had to buy, So it was always a one
in the first round seven times in a cent or
this century, twenty years or so. Oh and seventh straight
up in the next game. One in six against the
spread makes sense. You're now you've got that home team
(13:49):
rested off of buying. They are ready. And if you're
a week week week relatively compared to the other playoff teams,
it's not a good spot. Oh, by the way, in
those seven games, seven and oh to the over. So
now we have Andy Reid and that effect we think
pushes it over. We have the weather looks kind of bad,
(14:09):
probably scaring some people away, but Sunday is expected to
be forty degrees minimal wind, under ten clear, and we
have the opponent coach not considered an X as a
nose genius. Oh, Brian, would we agree kind of the
kind of coach I think they might be a little underrated.
(14:30):
To be honest, they have won their division Houston four
over the last five years. But the fact is he's
not a scheme. He's not an excess and nose guru
Andy Reid is gonna exploit that one more thing. If
you have a row or a home team that won
last week, so that's Houston. Now they're on the road
(14:50):
and they're favored by more or in this case, they're
underdogs by more in a touchdown a touchdown or more
that goes over a huge amount. And the ash now
there is simple, which is home team isn't super tired
because they had one game. Yeah, but it was a
home game. So the theory is Houston is not gonna
be super tired tired. So what do they try to do.
(15:11):
They're not gonna like purposely slow the game way way down, right,
So I think that helps. But it's like sixty percent over,
so everything's pointing to the over. I don't like batting
what Barne at the bar is gonna bat. So I
suggest betting this one early and I really like and
we got it, uh fifty ones out there. I think
fifty one is the number to take. I think when
(15:32):
people start realizing the weather, and you never know what's
gonna change, but start realizing the weather, I think we're
looking pretty good fast. How much do you like this?
I liked it enough to go ahead and get down
on it with you are J And I gotta tell you,
normally I don't like playing an over that high fifty one.
But let's you mentioned it. Regular season, what happens on
the fourth quarter a team gets up double digits, they
(15:53):
run the ball. Doesn't happen the playoffs. You step on
the team's throat. I expect reading company keep throwing. That
is such a key point. Both the team that's leading,
if it's a big margin, and the team that's behind
in the playoffs is motivated to keep going because even
if you have a small chance, all of the Patriots
in the Super Bowl they kept going regular season. You
(16:13):
don't know the analogy would be in the n B
A playoffs, down eight thirty seconds left, they might file
one more time right, Faz, and then they make it
three and all of a sudden they're fouling another five times.
Whereas regular season dribble. So I think and with DeShawn Watson,
even if they get down twenty one, he's gonna think
(16:34):
he can bring him back. Absolutely came down from sixteen
last week. So what I would say is this, if
you were only gonna bet one of the halves, I
would bet the second half over before the first because
I think a lot of this has to do with
I do expect Kansas City to get the lead, and
if they do, I think both teams keep scoring in
the second half. And if you're looking for a correlated parlay,
(16:55):
and I think there is a correlation here, it would
be obviously Kansas City and over. So the official pick
of the decade division round total in the two thousand
twenties Over over Kansas City. Brad, you want to You've
got a little strange angle here. Yeah, I want to
be bad r J. I've never done this any point
(17:17):
this season, but I want to play a seven point
teaser and in this matchup, I want to take Kansas
City and tease Kansas City seven points down from nine
and a half to two and a half. Okay, so
you're getting through the key numbers of seven and three.
You're paying yet, know what's the typical of minus one
this is bad. You're being bad, very bad. But let's
(17:39):
be honest, a lot of our audience wants to be bad.
They do. So the second piece of this is the
next game. We're going over all right, So my pick
is in when we come back, we have another best
back coming up. Brad Powers is being bad. You've got
the first piece Kansas City on the side minus two
and a half teas down. Second piece next, that's gonna
(18:00):
up next to hes r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks.
This is the pregame show you've always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell. We are Straight
out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks. Voice of you
(18:21):
the Fan coming up here. In just a couple of moments,
we will get into NFL action on a Saturday night. Yeah,
we're gonna have Brad Powers given the second leg of
his two team. It feels good to be bad. Seven
point l one forty teaser. Now sprinkle a little on that.
The investment. First segment over Kansas City total of the decade.
(18:45):
How often does that happen? I mean as soon it
will be next year. I think no doubt about A
great day to join us. You're listening to the fastest
growing show on Fox Sports Radio, up one since last
January one percent. You can listen on hundreds of FSR
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(19:06):
I Heart Radio app and Series XM and Anytime podcast.
Just search for r J. Bell right now in the
strip here in Vegas fifty four degrees. The neon is chugging, guys.
Saturday Night in Baltimore eight fifteen Eastern time on CBS,
It's the Titans at the number one seed Baltimore Ravens.
Right now on pregame dot Com. Baltimore is a nine
(19:29):
and a half point favorite. All right, Fez, Brad's gonna
have his pick coming up here in a few minutes.
Number one factor in the game Baltimore is the improved
defense over the course of the year. R J and
I was trying to figure out why was the Baltimore
defense bad back in September, and it's been so good.
So when you say bad, where where would you ranked them?
After four games? Oh? They were like twenty second. They
(19:49):
were giving up over six yards per play. And as
it turned out, Baltimore had a whole lot of new starters.
They had seven new starters to the defense, So the
integration of those guys took some time. And then once
those guys got integrated, along with them getting their cornerbacks
Peters from the Rams and getting Smith back from injury,
that combination, this defense has been dynamites the last nine games,
(20:12):
fourteen points per game. They're giving up only fourteen a game.
And what was it the first I guess I'd be
what seven? Oh, I don't have that number, but I
know they were below average. Yeah, it was. It was
much higher, no doubt about it. Now, Smith, Jimmy Smith,
any relation to the Smith brothers from Green Bay, because
I know you've got deep relations there. No, Za, Darius
and Preston are not related to Darius and I'm Preston Preston.
(20:35):
That's it, all right, I agree with you. So, Brad,
what is your number one factor in the game. Number
one factor for me is I'm concerned about the effectiveness
of Derrick Henry, the Tennessee running back who's the last
couple of weeks has carried the ball thirty plus times
in each of those two games. And if I'm Tennessee,
(20:55):
the best way to keep the ball out of the
hands of Lamar Jackson in the Baltimore offense is to
continue to run Derrick Henry, which we've been successful the
last two weeks. So I think he'll get his carries.
I'm just not so sure he's gonna be that all
that effective r J. You know, we're down to the
wire here doing a little deep research on this. What
we know is is Henry's never had thirty plus carries
(21:16):
in successive games in his NFL career. Only one other
time at thirty plus carries prior of the last two weeks.
So what we're saying is even a single time so
his whole career in the NFL, one time he had
thirty plus carries. Last two weeks, by the way, two
road games, now a third road game. The idea of
having thirty plus and thirty plus, that's unprecedented for Henry.
(21:40):
What we're gonna tell you here in a little bit
when it comes off the printer is we dove in
and said how rare is this in general? Forget Henry?
How many times are guys carrying thirty plus dirty plus,
it's not often and we saw from the preliminary preliminary
results that the other backs that carry the ball a
(22:01):
bunch for two games suffered in the third game. I
also think this Vrabel, he's getting a lot of off
all right, He's got energy, he's young, he seems to
be at least somewhat engaged with the media. He's not
like surly. Why aren't we hearing more? And I asked,
calling cow heard this today on our podcast and you
(22:23):
can get that on my Twitter tomorrow morning at r
J in Vegas. I asked him, I said, how is
it that anyone handicapping this game and tennessee the team,
how is it that the thirty plus carries in two
straight games has got to be at the front of
any any handicap. If you're ignoring that, you're ignoring the
(22:45):
maybe the biggest story. But it was by choice. Think
about it. What laed to Henry in week seventeen, which
is the first of the last two games. What led
to him having so many carries? And they wanted to
get him the Russian title for a single. They were
at Houston, right, they were in clear command of the game,
(23:05):
and they kept feeding the rock like it's I don't
even know what to explain it, like some weird tech
mode glitch back, and it's just like boom boom, and
I get it. All things equal, player friendly is great,
but at a time when we know running backs and
their carry load not only affects their long term career
(23:28):
but affects their shorter term career or the performance in
the near term, to trade effectively, to trade a rushing
title or even a chance at the rushing title, did
I know they were gonna get the title to trade
that chance for a lesser chance to win in the playoffs.
It's unequivocal that if Henry had carried the ball half
(23:51):
as much in Week seventeen, we would be so much
more optimistic about Tennessee, right, Is anyone disagree with that?
And what did Rabel get for it? A rushing title?
No one's gonna remember who won the rushing title three
years ago, no idea. Even Jonas probably doesn't know. God,
I don't know. I'll take a guess, but I'll tell
(24:12):
you this if you we know who won the super
Bowl and and it just strikes me that the balance
between winning and the whole Instagram followers profile. I want
to have my own shoes kind of stuff. I get it.
I'm not saying one is bad, but it's bad if
it's at the expense of winning. Has anyone heard anyone
(24:33):
discussed this? No, and Vrabel needs an answer for it
to me, Maybe he's if he will say, yeah, you know,
I want my players happy, and then at least we know.
I just wonder you can't have played the in the
NFL and not know that thirty plus is it doesn't
bode well for the next game. And the fact that
dirty plus again, and it bears repeating in his whole career.
(24:56):
He's gone thirty plus one time and now he's done
in successive weeks. Carries all right, Brad, you got your
It feels good to be bad, and it does sometimes,
especially if it's after midnight, right, mixture of drinks, if
you know, if you're a drinker. And the first one
(25:17):
Kansas City minus two and a half seven point late
onet picking up. I'm guessing here it's some chalk. Oh,
it is some chalk. Same thing here, let's go ahead.
And the seven point teaser being on the Baltimore Ravens
tease them down from nine and a half down to
two and a half. And this sounds even better after
I heard Steve Pezick, the master of the NFL power ratings,
say that the Kansas City Chiefs the first part of
(25:39):
my seven point teaser and this one the Baltimore Ravens
are his two highest power rated teams in the last
four years. They just gotta basically win the game. RJ.
But he both went by three. We win this bat.
I think this is correlated with the over to me.
I think the question here is how does Tennessee win
this game. It's not with Tannehill. It's a big dose
(26:02):
to Henry, which we think is compromised and if tennant
and if you look at football outsiderers Baltimore, the average
lead they had when the opponent got the ball across
the season, so the kickoff the lead is gonna be zero.
Right to start the game was nine points. The number
two was like seven Baltimore. Part of that defense is
(26:24):
they've been playing from the lead. Henry is not gonna
be too effective if Baltimore has a big lead, and
that's what's gonna happen. Tannehill throwing a bunch, he'll do fine.
He'll scramble some who'll have a strip sack. Probably. I
think if Baltimore wins, let me ask you, if Baltimore
covers the nine and a half, let's say, Fez, wouldn't
you if you knew that, wouldn't you auto bet the over? Yeah,
it's probably the over given Baltimore covers. All right, So
(26:48):
there's a couple of ways to get at this. You
can be a little bit let's just say almost illegal
land one. It's it's illegal, it's almost. It should be
out a lot if it's not. And you can have
oh my god, this is a cat nip for the
people would like to be bad. Wait, I get Kansas
City in Baltimore and they just gotta pretty much win
(27:08):
because no one ever wins by one or two points.
And you are endorsing that, Brad, I am endorsing it.
And it doesn't seem like with any regret, No, no regrets.
All right, we got it off the press. Now, these
are the players this season that had the most your
or most carries and two successive games all right for
(27:30):
net Chris Carson, Chris Carson again, McCaffrey, Elliott one game
or a group of two, Murray Cook and Carlo's hide
if you look at their season stats and compare them
to how they do in the third game. So that's
what Henry has right now, right two games with a
bunch of carries, and now what's he going to do
(27:53):
in the third? On average per carry, these backs, these
high usage backs offered by a half yard per game
or half yard per carry, half yard per carry, So
f f four point oh yards, that's average four point
five means you're one of the best running teams in football.
That half yards gigantic. Every time he touches the ball.
(28:15):
If he gets about thirty times, it's gonna be fifteen
extra yards or fifteen yards he didn't get. So we
expect Derrick Henry to go from an elite, best in
the league running back to an average back. Yes, r J,
it's the third game and then in a few more
physic's best bat. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three
pm Pacific. Trade Out of Vegas here on a Fox
(28:37):
Sports radio coming up in about twelve minutes from now
here on fs are we will have a best met
another opportunity for you to make a little bit of
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(28:59):
you a fan. He's a voice of Vegas. R J.
Bell speaking of the NBA thunder big win yesterday. They
have the number one against the spread record in the
NBA six percent covers this year and one Okay, see
all right, we got our third game, Joness. That's right,
and it kicks off this wild card weekend Saturday, four
(29:21):
thirty five pm Eastern Time. Vikings at the forty Niners
on NBC right now on pregame dot com. San Fran
a seven point favorite. Yeah, and this is one. I
was on Gottlieb every Thursday during football and mentioned Jonas
really put us on the scent when it came to
Kirk Cousins. Regular listeners have heard this. I'll say it's
a sinctly Cousins when he plays at one o'clock Eastern
(29:45):
in those games against the spread about two out of
three winners. No quarterback in the history of the NFL
over a career has been that good for his entire career.
So Cousins in that spot is better against the spread
than any quarterback ever. Now when it's not a one
o'clock start any other time, he wins a third of
(30:05):
the time, two thirds and one one third and the other.
No quarterback had had any length of career has been
that bad for a career against the spread. Like, so, literally,
Cousins at one o'clock better than anyone. Cousins not at
one worse than anyone. I've said that a few times,
but I think I got it now now to me, Fas,
what was the most interesting was we dug in and
(30:28):
said how much is this worth? Because we always trying
to put points per game, we said, let's cut in
half what we think like, we said, let's be conservative,
let's assume these numbers are some lux involved. Even cutting
everything by we think it's worth like three points. Is
that right? Yes? So I don't think you can. I
really truly believe this. I don't think you can beat Minnesota.
(30:49):
There's no confluence of scenarios of other factors. That's gonna
not only gain those three points back to compensate for
cousins poor performance Non one, and then get past that
to the point that you actually would bet them. I
don't think it's even possible, and I don't think it's
possible to bet the opponent and overcome the same thing
(31:10):
in the reverse when Cousins is in his preferred spot.
So fast, I think this game is San fran or pass.
I agree, four thirty five Eastern start time, three and
a half hours later than what Kirk Cousins line. It's
a day earlier. And talk about getting out your routine. Yeah,
you couldn't ask for a worst routine in week think
about huge upset when how do you like me? Now?
(31:31):
On Sunday celebratory and then boom, short work week to
prepare for this game on Saturday. Short week hurts everyone.
My guess is it's going to hurt him more. And
it's in San Francisco. Let me talk about their by
r J. San Francisco had their bye weeks four. In
the NFL. Every other playoff team had there by week
eight or later. If there was one team in the
(31:51):
NFL that was leaking oil and they needed rest. It
was the forty That's the physic that I recruited aggressively
a long time ago. I mean, what I'm known all
over the man that Fisher oil is really perking you up.
That's good. Now, think about that. What you're saying is
(32:13):
that the bike comes early, and and to me, week four,
week five bys always at disadvantage. You don't need it yet,
and then by the time he gets to the playoffs,
you're tired. So in this case, the effect on this
game would be that San Francisco was gonna benefit more
from that extra week off than any other by team,
and they were tired, which explains maybe maybe somewhat the
(32:36):
defense drop off because the first seven games, San fran
had one of the best, if not the best points
per game. It was the best defense in the NFL.
How many points per game? Eleven point per game? They
were giving up eleven. You don't lose a lot of
games eleven and ten, all right, So the Steelers did
once against the Charges. I still remember that now. I
think it was like the first time in forty years.
(32:56):
They said, now, in the final nine games, how many
points twenty six more than double I mean, there's a
lot of ways to talk about those numbers, right, I mean, wow,
eleven and then you add I mean why because to me,
the biggest question of this game, beyond Cousins, why were
(33:20):
they so good early and so bad San Francisco's defense later? Well,
a big part was the injuries, and they are going
to get some of these guys back. UM, their middle
linebacker Alexander likely to play for San Francisco. It's still
just likely. He very likely, all right, and d Ford
is going to be a game time decision, but most
of the experts expect him to come back. He's been
out since the middle of November. He's their best lineman
(33:41):
for UM the A team. Yeah, So here's what I
would say. I am not going to bet San Francisco.
I don't think if Alexander doesn't play, I would really
be cautious. What I know is I can't play Minnesota,
so for me, and remember, the most important thing you
can know here is what are you bet? Maybe one
out even if you're high volume, but one out of
four games during the regular season, and for sixteen you
(34:04):
might have four. Well, there's only four games, guys, four
So if you bet one year bat one out of four.
You bet two year bat and double what you usually do. No,
you don't want to do that, right, be conservative here
and obviously my picks the best. No, no, no, no no,
But everyone gets to the side. That's the beauty of it,
all right, And we're trying to give him all the
(34:24):
facts to decide. So for me, it's San Francis pass.
Here's what concerns me. If you look at this total,
and we did the math on the podcast. And by
the way, you can get this show podcast your search
r J Bell or our deep dive on the Dream preview.
It's up right now, favorite podcast player. Just subscribe to
both of them. What the heck, it's free. I mean
(34:45):
you want to be bad. I mean it's not even bad.
That's good. What we figured out was that this total,
which is currently at assumes pretty much that San Francis
is gonna be as good as they were in the
first seven weeks, right, because otherwise this thing would be
like if we assume what we saw in the last
nine was true, this baby would be like ten points higher.
(35:06):
We figured exactly. So the markets telling you are assumption
is San France d is back to the world class.
First seven games. I know they might get a player
or two back, or they probably will. I don't know
if that does it. I don't know if that does it.
That keeps me away from San France. All right, three
games down? When to go? And that game, well, it's
Steve Physics, the only guy to win the Super Contest twice.
(35:28):
His best better the weekend that's coming up next to
He's r J. Bell. I'm Jonas Knox. Is the pregame
show you've always wanted, and it's money making time next
year on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has the
best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of
our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within
the I Heart Radio app search f s R to
(35:49):
listen live. I'm r J. Bell. We are straight out
of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of you the Van.
I'll tell you this just Physics best bets coming. Just
you what kind of man he is? And you might
be appalled by this, but you might think that's who
I wanted bet with. There's a fellow we got. I
got a new Mike, Brad has a new mic. You know,
(36:10):
we're having some fun with it, but we haven't built
a set around. You know, we just need a set
builder to come in. We had a fellow named Esteban.
He built a set for six years ago. He built
a set forwards eighteen months ago, and Fezik probably met
him three times. I say, Esteban is coming next week.
He goes who, and then like it took me like
(36:30):
three minutes explain who it was, and finally waved his
hand and goes, oh, that's the help. You gotta win
bets to have silver spoons, though, let's be candid life
find the gated community. I don't no idea. Guys, before
(36:51):
we get to this best bet from Steve Fezick behind
his gated community, want to let you know we are
brought to you by AutoZone. Autozon has more ways for
you to get what you need when you need it.
With their free same day store pick up, you can
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more than fifty auto zone locations get in the zone
auto Zone. It is the last of our four game
preview in the NFL's Divisional Playoffs. It's the finale on
(37:12):
Sunday Night, where the Packers right now are four and
a half point favorite, hosting the Seahawks. I like Green
Bay minus the four and f and I bet green
Bay Seattle is overrated. R J. You picked up on
this before I think anybody else. We'll see, right, because
if they make the championship game, I think a lot
of people are gonna be chirping on Twitter. Well they've yeah,
they certainly see. I has already been leaking oil here.
(37:32):
At the end of the year, they're eleven and two
in close games decide by one score, so Seattle overalls
twelve and five. But the only reason they're twelve and
five is because they've won all of these close games.
And let's face it, even the playoff win at Philly.
They're fortunate that when you hear Wentz one in that matter,
that's what everyone said they would have won with that
Wentz and then went even as it turns out McCown
(37:53):
came and he was playing with a torn hamstring in
the second half as well. And you're over forty. It's
hard to tell. Yeah, it's a good point. Now, what
I will say is this, Brad, you had an amazing
stat Seattle has tied. Now. Only one other team, the
two thousand fifteen Broncos, have had this many one score
wins in the seat that is correct. Only the Broncos
of that year have had this many one score wins.
So this is effectively the luckiest team tied in the
(38:16):
history of the NFL. You might say luck it's Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson before this season was three games below one
score games. So I trust the longer stats. He's like
everyone else, and there's a huge matchup edge in this game.
How do you beat green Bay? Your run all over them,
You're run through them. Well, there's no running backs left
for Seattle to do that, and the yards per carry
(38:38):
last game it was like one point one or something
with their key back right for both Lynch and for Homer,
They've got no one who can accomplish that and take
advantage of the green Bay weakness. So your best bat
is on green Bay minus the four and a half.
And remember something, guys, the home field advantage for green
Bay is maybe the best in the NFL. Seattle in
them now. Seattle w is seven one on the road
this year, but over the course of the last three years,
(39:00):
last five years, they're not a great road team. Seattle.
I trust the longer term stats again, right, this is
really about do you trust the seven and one or
do you trust that they're an average row team, or
at least considering how good the team has been, there
not a superior road team. Do you trust that Russell
Wilson over his career is just a few games over
close games even now, or do you trust this season
(39:23):
with the historic amount of close wins. I always want
to trust if it's apples to apples the bigger stats.
And by the way, guys, my total, we'll give it here.
But podcast has the analysis if you didn't hear it
over in Kansas City my favorite. But I'm in a
five thousand all the Charity Challenge on radio in New
York and I'm up a half a game, so the
(39:44):
stakes are high right now, heads up, and I have
green Bay, so on the side. I agree with Fez.
Remember that home field advantage is even more so because
of the surface of the field and green Bay surface.
If it does snow drizzle anything, it takes even more
being familiar with that surface. Green Bay's edge goes up
if the weather is bad at home. I agree with
(40:05):
FASA's best back green Bay. If you missed any of
today's show, including multiple best bets, and the best bet
of the century so far. Excuse me the decade. Check
out Fox Sports Radio dot com. We are back on Monday.
Right here on FS are
Don't listening to Fox Sports Rago. This is straight out
of Vegas with the voice of Vegas, your host, r
J Bow. Damn collection, the pregame show America has always
(00:29):
wanted from the Vegas Trip, Ear's r J Bow. You
heard it. I'm RJ live from Las Vegas to hundred
(00:50):
FSR stations across this great nation. And it's a big day,
Big big Friday. Yeah, pick Palooza. But it's the last time.
This is tire football season. There's four games in the
weekend at next week too, and then one that means
only three left after Sunday. Let's take advantage. Also, though,
(01:14):
just best bets are going to be strewn throughout the hour.
We're joining studio the pros who know full house, Brad Powers,
Steve Pezik, Sports betters listen for the money. Sports fans
listen to no more than their bodies. But you can't
have pros without Joe's He's in l A, He's Jones.
It's not always good to be here, r J. And Yes,
(01:35):
on a day in which we've got four games in
the NFL, We've got a quarterback making his playoff debut
in the National Football League, and pressure on some higher seeds.
What is the Vegas lead? I can't lie. There was
a little bit of contention on this one. Physic we
know what he wanted. Oh just connected it to say
(01:57):
I don't want to hear about my love of Jimmy
g But no, no, no, that's coming soon. We've got
We announced it yesterday, the r J Bell over Under
Division Round Total over under of the decade of the
two thousand and twenties, best one so far. And let's
get to it, guys. We go to Kansas City, the
Houston Texans at the Kansas City Chiefs. This is coming
(02:20):
up on Sunday right now on pregame dot com. The
Chiefs the home team, a nine and a half point favorite.
The total in this game on pregame dot com is
right now now. This total could be over or it
could be under. Let's break this game. I promise it's
one of the two. Let's break it down. Fez Number
(02:41):
one factor. If you just had not on the total
the whole game. If you just had one factor, that's
all you could share with the nation, what would it be?
Kansas City underrated. A big part of that the fact
that Mahomes missed three games and Frankly, quite a few
games Mahomes played he was not on. So that Kansas
City offense, it looks really good in the stats are
(03:02):
j but bottom line, it's even better than what the
underlying season long stats say because of those three games
with Matt Moore and those three games with the compromise Mahomes. Yeah,
I think that's one part of it. And you were
at the forefront when it came to talking about Kansas City,
like four or five weeks ago. Physic first one underrated
(03:25):
and the rationale at the time was listen when Mahomes
was healthy, first four games there were four now and
after that he was banged up. Then he was out,
then he was banged up coming back he got and
I listened. There's some subjectivity. It's like, it's not when
he wins the first game, is when he gets or
you know that wins that next when he's healthy. But
(03:45):
you could see it. I mean it was pretty visible.
I thought we could debate one game or the other,
but I thought it was pretty visible that he was hobbled.
So what you look for in the playoffs is a
time when the players, the team it's is better now
then it was across the season. So imagine a situation
(04:05):
of Tom Brady and his prime missed ten games. Right,
you could blend all those stats in, But would that
be the story or would it be how they play
when Brady was in there and how they play when
Mahomes was in there? Because he finished number two in
QBR this year, behind only Lamar Jackson and Drew Brees third.
(04:27):
By the way, for all those Drew Brees haters, and
by the way, Drew Brees had a better QBR the
last four or five games, and he did on the season.
It was still third best. But his arms tired. He's
too old. That's what I'm hearing on the different talk shows.
It doesn't make a lot of sense, But okay, all right.
I think there's another reason Kansas City's underrated, and that's
(04:47):
because of the defense. Brad. We talked about this in
college a bunch. If you have a new coordinator or
a new coach has multiple coordinators, even more so, that
are different. If all you did was faded team the
first third of the season with the new coordinator, pass
them the middle third, and then play on them the
(05:09):
last third. So pessimistic, neutral, optimistic, I think you're right there.
You totally agree because it's opposite of what the public does.
Because at the start of the season, the public there's
all this optimism, Hey, we got a new coordinator. The
last coordinator stuck. That's why we got rid of them
with this new guy. And that's why they're getting rid
of the guy. Most of the time, right, they're usually
(05:30):
not retiring like with the Nero doing the horses at
the end of casino, right, I mean, they're usually getting
run out of town. You bring the new guy in,
everyone's excited. Oh look they lost the game. Oh look
they didn't cover that game. Oh man, this guy is
no good. All right, Spagnolia is no good. But then
by the time they start getting kind of a parody
where they're they're kind of familiar with their own offense,
(05:52):
their own defense. That's when everyone's kind of off them.
And then there's that point where the turn happens where
they are now playing better than they had last season,
but the public is still pessimistic because this season hasn't
been great. As we got some numbers on this or
Brad whoever wants to jump in with them, if as
you got the last six games that Kansas City defense
(06:15):
has given up eleven and a half points per game.
How good is that? R J? Well, Number one in
the NFL year to date was the Patriots. They give
up fourteen per game. So that Kansas City d the
last six weeks has been better than any NFL team
in terms of preventing their opponents from scoring. And I
think the by was seven weeks back, and if you
roll that seventh game in, it's still very impressive. Now, Listen,
(06:36):
points per game can be deceiving, though ultimately in the
long run it matters probably the most, but in the
short run it can be deceiving. Quality of competition, red
zone efficiency of the opponent, which has a lot of luck. Yeah,
no doubt. But we looked at Football Outsiders d v
o A for the defense. Each of the eight games
(06:56):
or six games took the mean the average, and they
would have been eighth in football in the NFL, eighth
best defense. Now, if Kansas City has the eighth best defense, lookout,
you think, because where where's the offense? At number one?
You got him about Baltimore. I'd do it's close, but
(07:17):
K one, so Baltimore could be one two on offense.
I think you could debate it either way. And on defense,
Baltimore is wear for you. It's a top five d
also in Kansas City right in that same range, but
a little higher, you know, eighth. We're saying, yes, I mean,
these could be two of the best teams we've seen
(07:38):
in the decade. I mean, to me, this is probably
the best second best team I can remember in a while.
I mean anything jump out at you, just that Kansas City. No,
they're the best, second best team. They would be the
best team overall and over the last four years if
it was not for Baltimore. Oh so you have the
number on that you're saying right now, Kansas City's power
(07:59):
raiding Physics the Vegas perspective. You can get that when
it's released at physic Sports on Twitter. That's f e
z z i K at Physics Sports. And you're saying
that the rating on Casey right now is higher than
any other team has had in the last four years. Yes. Wow,
(08:19):
So we literally have the two best teams based on
Pheasis power ratings that we've had in the last four years. Jonas,
how many people think Kansas City is that good? I
think they've been under the radar for a little while.
Um I I've thought they were the most dangerous team
based on how the defense has played a lot of
the stuff that you guys have pointed out, and because
(08:41):
there's been such a hype on Baltimore and maybe a
little Mahomes fatigue, if there is such a thing. I
just feel like they've kind of flown under the radar.
I think it's that, and I think the reality is
if you look at the season, they didn't look like
the second best team a lot of the season. It's
just our ability to say this is what's different right here.
(09:02):
They've got their players, they've got their mature defense understanding
the scheme. Earlier, they didn't have either. First four games,
they had the offense, and they were still four now
even without Tyreek Hill. Remember he got hurt week when
he was out four games. Now, how many points have
you got him worth? Now he's worth the point A
full point. Yeah. So to me, now that said, I
(09:23):
think the Ravens are the better team. I really do.
I think. I mean, you look at the Ravens, you
look at the point differential, look at the A T
S margin nine and one against the spread last ten.
Since they got their defense solidified, and we'll be talking
about that I think this is the best team I've seen,
maybe since the two thousand seven undefeated Patriots. And I
(09:46):
don't think a short week for their opponent is the time.
It's not gonna be the time to figure out this
complex or this let's say a very unusual Baltimore offense.
All right, it's time, Mr j bo straight out of Vegas.
Now you could I don't know what division round games
you've bet this decade, but this is the best well total,
(10:10):
this is the best total you're gonna get. Now. I'm
having fun with it because we don't over sell, but
I will say this, this is probably one of my
five best bets of the year in the NFL. And
I like over fifty one over fifty one Kansas City
a couple of reasons. One, let's get to the obvious.
Andy Reid brad off of by outstanding and oftentimes you
(10:35):
see it on the offensive side. Yeah, over the over
his entire career, Andy Reid, going back to the Philadelphia
Days off of by sixty eight percent against the spread
r J pretty good. And and offensively is where they
pick up a lot of absolutely and you read more
of an offensive mind and coaching and exceeding expectations by
five and a half points per game. And you think
(10:57):
about it, You've got a Texans team. I wouldn't make
the case perhaps one of the five or so worst
playoff teams of the decade. I know that sounds like
a lot of people are gonna say, what they've been outgained.
Houston outgained on the season. The opponents have more yards
(11:17):
than the Texans. Now, usually if you get outgained, that's
not a good thing. So like, let's that got get
another twenty that's gonna help us now? And then in
in a given game, the yards can be deceiving. You know,
everyone would say with a couple remember that a Green
Bay game. Okay, but over sixteen games usually the best teams. Well,
(11:40):
by the way, Baltimore is number one and yard is differential.
San Francisco's number three. By the way, the Dallas Cowboys
are too right. Think about that a second. But additionally,
the Texans during the regular season, and even if you
had the playoff game, have been outscored. Now, listen, maybe
we're trying to make things to comp blacks, but the
(12:01):
idea that you give up more yards the Texans, do
you give up more points the Texans do. But somehow
you're great or even good. No, no, no, you're supposed
to be average at best. Now I know that the
Shawn lovers out there, and hey, listen, the guy's amazing.
During our podcast, Faz gave up play by play of
that play. I figure no one saw it. He was
(12:23):
given a play by play. We won't play that for
you because we like you. But if you look, have
we looked at his career yet? Did we look at
Deshaun one score game sixteen and eleven, including this year
where they're nine and three in one score games. So
let me see, sixty eleven is five. He's up six
this year. So he had a below five record and
(12:44):
one score games for his career. Okay games he started,
and now he goes nine and three in close games.
The Texans are eleven and six on the year. If
they had just gone fifty fifty like he'd done throughout
his career before this year, the Texans would be eight
and nine and they wouldn't have that ninth game, or
they wouldn't have that seventeenth game. Right, seven and nine exactly,
(13:05):
some ferry eight or eight and eight right at best.
So this is an eight and eight team. And if
you want to act like Deshaun Trump sat and why
hasn't he trumped prior? And we're gonna get to the
same argument with Seattle. Now, when you have a team
there's only been seven of them this century, when you
have a team which is been outscored on the year
(13:28):
and outyarded on the year, and they make the division round, right,
never had to buy, So it was always a one
in the first round seven times in a cent or
this century, twenty years or so. Oh and seventh straight
up in the next game. One in six against the
spread makes sense. You're now you've got that home team
(13:49):
rested off of buying. They are ready. And if you're
a week week week relatively compared to the other playoff teams,
it's not a good spot. Oh, by the way, in
those seven games, seven and oh to the over. So
now we have Andy Reid and that effect we think
pushes it over. We have the weather looks kind of bad,
(14:09):
probably scaring some people away, but Sunday is expected to
be forty degrees minimal wind, under ten clear, and we
have the opponent coach not considered an X as a
nose genius. Oh, Brian, would we agree kind of the
kind of coach I think they might be a little underrated.
(14:30):
To be honest, they have won their division Houston four
over the last five years. But the fact is he's
not a scheme. He's not an excess and nose guru
Andy Reid is gonna exploit that one more thing. If
you have a row or a home team that won
last week, so that's Houston. Now they're on the road
(14:50):
and they're favored by more or in this case, they're
underdogs by more in a touchdown a touchdown or more
that goes over a huge amount. And the ash now
there is simple, which is home team isn't super tired
because they had one game. Yeah, but it was a
home game. So the theory is Houston is not gonna
be super tired tired. So what do they try to do.
(15:11):
They're not gonna like purposely slow the game way way down, right,
So I think that helps. But it's like sixty percent over,
so everything's pointing to the over. I don't like batting
what Barne at the bar is gonna bat. So I
suggest betting this one early and I really like and
we got it, uh fifty ones out there. I think
fifty one is the number to take. I think when
(15:32):
people start realizing the weather, and you never know what's
gonna change, but start realizing the weather, I think we're
looking pretty good fast. How much do you like this?
I liked it enough to go ahead and get down
on it with you are J And I gotta tell you,
normally I don't like playing an over that high fifty one.
But let's you mentioned it. Regular season, what happens on
the fourth quarter a team gets up double digits, they
(15:53):
run the ball. Doesn't happen the playoffs. You step on
the team's throat. I expect reading company keep throwing. That
is such a key point. Both the team that's leading,
if it's a big margin, and the team that's behind
in the playoffs is motivated to keep going because even
if you have a small chance, all of the Patriots
in the Super Bowl they kept going regular season. You
(16:13):
don't know the analogy would be in the n B
A playoffs, down eight thirty seconds left, they might file
one more time right, Faz, and then they make it
three and all of a sudden they're fouling another five times.
Whereas regular season dribble. So I think and with DeShawn Watson,
even if they get down twenty one, he's gonna think
(16:34):
he can bring him back. Absolutely came down from sixteen
last week. So what I would say is this, if
you were only gonna bet one of the halves, I
would bet the second half over before the first because
I think a lot of this has to do with
I do expect Kansas City to get the lead, and
if they do, I think both teams keep scoring in
the second half. And if you're looking for a correlated parlay,
(16:55):
and I think there is a correlation here, it would
be obviously Kansas City and over. So the official pick
of the decade division round total in the two thousand
twenties Over over Kansas City. Brad, you want to You've
got a little strange angle here. Yeah, I want to
be bad r J. I've never done this any point
(17:17):
this season, but I want to play a seven point
teaser and in this matchup, I want to take Kansas
City and tease Kansas City seven points down from nine
and a half to two and a half. Okay, so
you're getting through the key numbers of seven and three.
You're paying yet, know what's the typical of minus one
this is bad. You're being bad, very bad. But let's
(17:39):
be honest, a lot of our audience wants to be bad.
They do. So the second piece of this is the
next game. We're going over all right, So my pick
is in when we come back, we have another best
back coming up. Brad Powers is being bad. You've got
the first piece Kansas City on the side minus two
and a half teas down. Second piece next, that's gonna
(18:00):
up next to hes r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks.
This is the pregame show you've always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell. We are Straight
out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks. Voice of you
(18:21):
the Fan coming up here. In just a couple of moments,
we will get into NFL action on a Saturday night. Yeah,
we're gonna have Brad Powers given the second leg of
his two team. It feels good to be bad. Seven
point l one forty teaser. Now sprinkle a little on that.
The investment. First segment over Kansas City total of the decade.
(18:45):
How often does that happen? I mean as soon it
will be next year. I think no doubt about A
great day to join us. You're listening to the fastest
growing show on Fox Sports Radio, up one since last
January one percent. You can listen on hundreds of FSR
stations across the country, Fox Sports Radio dot Com. Also
(19:06):
I Heart Radio app and Series XM and Anytime podcast.
Just search for r J. Bell right now in the
strip here in Vegas fifty four degrees. The neon is chugging, guys.
Saturday Night in Baltimore eight fifteen Eastern time on CBS,
It's the Titans at the number one seed Baltimore Ravens.
Right now on pregame dot Com. Baltimore is a nine
(19:29):
and a half point favorite. All right, Fez, Brad's gonna
have his pick coming up here in a few minutes.
Number one factor in the game Baltimore is the improved
defense over the course of the year. R J and
I was trying to figure out why was the Baltimore
defense bad back in September, and it's been so good.
So when you say bad, where where would you ranked them?
After four games? Oh? They were like twenty second. They
(19:49):
were giving up over six yards per play. And as
it turned out, Baltimore had a whole lot of new starters.
They had seven new starters to the defense, So the
integration of those guys took some time. And then once
those guys got integrated, along with them getting their cornerbacks
Peters from the Rams and getting Smith back from injury,
that combination, this defense has been dynamites the last nine games,
(20:12):
fourteen points per game. They're giving up only fourteen a game.
And what was it the first I guess I'd be
what seven? Oh, I don't have that number, but I
know they were below average. Yeah, it was. It was
much higher, no doubt about it. Now, Smith, Jimmy Smith,
any relation to the Smith brothers from Green Bay, because
I know you've got deep relations there. No, Za, Darius
and Preston are not related to Darius and I'm Preston Preston.
(20:35):
That's it, all right, I agree with you. So, Brad,
what is your number one factor in the game. Number
one factor for me is I'm concerned about the effectiveness
of Derrick Henry, the Tennessee running back who's the last
couple of weeks has carried the ball thirty plus times
in each of those two games. And if I'm Tennessee,
(20:55):
the best way to keep the ball out of the
hands of Lamar Jackson in the Baltimore offense is to
continue to run Derrick Henry, which we've been successful the
last two weeks. So I think he'll get his carries.
I'm just not so sure he's gonna be that all
that effective r J. You know, we're down to the
wire here doing a little deep research on this. What
we know is is Henry's never had thirty plus carries
(21:16):
in successive games in his NFL career. Only one other
time at thirty plus carries prior of the last two weeks.
So what we're saying is even a single time so
his whole career in the NFL, one time he had
thirty plus carries. Last two weeks, by the way, two
road games, now a third road game. The idea of
having thirty plus and thirty plus, that's unprecedented for Henry.
(21:40):
What we're gonna tell you here in a little bit
when it comes off the printer is we dove in
and said how rare is this in general? Forget Henry?
How many times are guys carrying thirty plus dirty plus,
it's not often and we saw from the preliminary preliminary
results that the other backs that carry the ball a
(22:01):
bunch for two games suffered in the third game. I
also think this Vrabel, he's getting a lot of off
all right, He's got energy, he's young, he seems to
be at least somewhat engaged with the media. He's not
like surly. Why aren't we hearing more? And I asked,
calling cow heard this today on our podcast and you
(22:23):
can get that on my Twitter tomorrow morning at r
J in Vegas. I asked him, I said, how is
it that anyone handicapping this game and tennessee the team,
how is it that the thirty plus carries in two
straight games has got to be at the front of
any any handicap. If you're ignoring that, you're ignoring the
(22:45):
maybe the biggest story. But it was by choice. Think
about it. What laed to Henry in week seventeen, which
is the first of the last two games. What led
to him having so many carries? And they wanted to
get him the Russian title for a single. They were
at Houston, right, they were in clear command of the game,
(23:05):
and they kept feeding the rock like it's I don't
even know what to explain it, like some weird tech
mode glitch back, and it's just like boom boom, and
I get it. All things equal, player friendly is great,
but at a time when we know running backs and
their carry load not only affects their long term career
(23:28):
but affects their shorter term career or the performance in
the near term, to trade effectively, to trade a rushing
title or even a chance at the rushing title, did
I know they were gonna get the title to trade
that chance for a lesser chance to win in the playoffs.
It's unequivocal that if Henry had carried the ball half
(23:51):
as much in Week seventeen, we would be so much
more optimistic about Tennessee, right, Is anyone disagree with that?
And what did Rabel get for it? A rushing title?
No one's gonna remember who won the rushing title three
years ago, no idea. Even Jonas probably doesn't know. God,
I don't know. I'll take a guess, but I'll tell
(24:12):
you this if you we know who won the super
Bowl and and it just strikes me that the balance
between winning and the whole Instagram followers profile. I want
to have my own shoes kind of stuff. I get it.
I'm not saying one is bad, but it's bad if
it's at the expense of winning. Has anyone heard anyone
(24:33):
discussed this? No, and Vrabel needs an answer for it
to me, Maybe he's if he will say, yeah, you know,
I want my players happy, and then at least we know.
I just wonder you can't have played the in the
NFL and not know that thirty plus is it doesn't
bode well for the next game. And the fact that
dirty plus again, and it bears repeating in his whole career.
(24:56):
He's gone thirty plus one time and now he's done
in successive weeks. Carries all right, Brad, you got your
It feels good to be bad, and it does sometimes,
especially if it's after midnight, right, mixture of drinks, if
you know, if you're a drinker. And the first one
(25:17):
Kansas City minus two and a half seven point late
onet picking up. I'm guessing here it's some chalk. Oh,
it is some chalk. Same thing here, let's go ahead.
And the seven point teaser being on the Baltimore Ravens
tease them down from nine and a half down to
two and a half. And this sounds even better after
I heard Steve Pezick, the master of the NFL power ratings,
say that the Kansas City Chiefs the first part of
(25:39):
my seven point teaser and this one the Baltimore Ravens
are his two highest power rated teams in the last
four years. They just gotta basically win the game. RJ.
But he both went by three. We win this bat.
I think this is correlated with the over to me.
I think the question here is how does Tennessee win
this game. It's not with Tannehill. It's a big dose
(26:02):
to Henry, which we think is compromised and if tennant
and if you look at football outsiderers Baltimore, the average
lead they had when the opponent got the ball across
the season, so the kickoff the lead is gonna be zero.
Right to start the game was nine points. The number
two was like seven Baltimore. Part of that defense is
(26:24):
they've been playing from the lead. Henry is not gonna
be too effective if Baltimore has a big lead, and
that's what's gonna happen. Tannehill throwing a bunch, he'll do fine.
He'll scramble some who'll have a strip sack. Probably. I
think if Baltimore wins, let me ask you, if Baltimore
covers the nine and a half, let's say, Fez, wouldn't
you if you knew that, wouldn't you auto bet the over? Yeah,
it's probably the over given Baltimore covers. All right, So
(26:48):
there's a couple of ways to get at this. You
can be a little bit let's just say almost illegal
land one. It's it's illegal, it's almost. It should be
out a lot if it's not. And you can have
oh my god, this is a cat nip for the
people would like to be bad. Wait, I get Kansas
City in Baltimore and they just gotta pretty much win
(27:08):
because no one ever wins by one or two points.
And you are endorsing that, Brad, I am endorsing it.
And it doesn't seem like with any regret, No, no regrets.
All right, we got it off the press. Now, these
are the players this season that had the most your
or most carries and two successive games all right for
(27:30):
net Chris Carson, Chris Carson again, McCaffrey, Elliott one game
or a group of two, Murray Cook and Carlo's hide
if you look at their season stats and compare them
to how they do in the third game. So that's
what Henry has right now, right two games with a
bunch of carries, and now what's he going to do
(27:53):
in the third? On average per carry, these backs, these
high usage backs offered by a half yard per game
or half yard per carry, half yard per carry, So
f f four point oh yards, that's average four point
five means you're one of the best running teams in football.
That half yards gigantic. Every time he touches the ball.
(28:15):
If he gets about thirty times, it's gonna be fifteen
extra yards or fifteen yards he didn't get. So we
expect Derrick Henry to go from an elite, best in
the league running back to an average back. Yes, r J,
it's the third game and then in a few more
physic's best bat. Be sure to catch live editions of
Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern three
pm Pacific. Trade Out of Vegas here on a Fox
(28:37):
Sports radio coming up in about twelve minutes from now
here on fs are we will have a best met
another opportunity for you to make a little bit of
coin over the weekend. I want to let you know
we are brought to you by auto Zone. AutoZone has
more ways for you to get what you need when
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(28:59):
you a fan. He's a voice of Vegas. R J.
Bell speaking of the NBA thunder big win yesterday. They
have the number one against the spread record in the
NBA six percent covers this year and one Okay, see
all right, we got our third game, Joness. That's right,
and it kicks off this wild card weekend Saturday, four
(29:21):
thirty five pm Eastern Time. Vikings at the forty Niners
on NBC right now on pregame dot com. San Fran
a seven point favorite. Yeah, and this is one. I
was on Gottlieb every Thursday during football and mentioned Jonas
really put us on the scent when it came to
Kirk Cousins. Regular listeners have heard this. I'll say it's
a sinctly Cousins when he plays at one o'clock Eastern
(29:45):
in those games against the spread about two out of
three winners. No quarterback in the history of the NFL
over a career has been that good for his entire career.
So Cousins in that spot is better against the spread
than any quarterback ever. Now when it's not a one
o'clock start any other time, he wins a third of
(30:05):
the time, two thirds and one one third and the other.
No quarterback had had any length of career has been
that bad for a career against the spread. Like, so, literally,
Cousins at one o'clock better than anyone. Cousins not at
one worse than anyone. I've said that a few times,
but I think I got it now now to me, Fas,
what was the most interesting was we dug in and
(30:28):
said how much is this worth? Because we always trying
to put points per game, we said, let's cut in
half what we think like, we said, let's be conservative,
let's assume these numbers are some lux involved. Even cutting
everything by we think it's worth like three points. Is
that right? Yes? So I don't think you can. I
really truly believe this. I don't think you can beat Minnesota.
(30:49):
There's no confluence of scenarios of other factors. That's gonna
not only gain those three points back to compensate for
cousins poor performance Non one, and then get past that
to the point that you actually would bet them. I
don't think it's even possible, and I don't think it's
possible to bet the opponent and overcome the same thing
(31:10):
in the reverse when Cousins is in his preferred spot.
So fast, I think this game is San fran or pass.
I agree, four thirty five Eastern start time, three and
a half hours later than what Kirk Cousins line. It's
a day earlier. And talk about getting out your routine. Yeah,
you couldn't ask for a worst routine in week think
about huge upset when how do you like me? Now?
(31:31):
On Sunday celebratory and then boom, short work week to
prepare for this game on Saturday. Short week hurts everyone.
My guess is it's going to hurt him more. And
it's in San Francisco. Let me talk about their by
r J. San Francisco had their bye weeks four. In
the NFL. Every other playoff team had there by week
eight or later. If there was one team in the
(31:51):
NFL that was leaking oil and they needed rest. It
was the forty That's the physic that I recruited aggressively
a long time ago. I mean, what I'm known all
over the man that Fisher oil is really perking you up.
That's good. Now, think about that. What you're saying is
(32:13):
that the bike comes early, and and to me, week four,
week five bys always at disadvantage. You don't need it yet,
and then by the time he gets to the playoffs,
you're tired. So in this case, the effect on this
game would be that San Francisco was gonna benefit more
from that extra week off than any other by team,
and they were tired, which explains maybe maybe somewhat the
(32:36):
defense drop off because the first seven games, San fran
had one of the best, if not the best points
per game. It was the best defense in the NFL.
How many points per game? Eleven point per game? They
were giving up eleven. You don't lose a lot of
games eleven and ten, all right, So the Steelers did
once against the Charges. I still remember that now. I
think it was like the first time in forty years.
(32:56):
They said, now, in the final nine games, how many
points twenty six more than double I mean, there's a
lot of ways to talk about those numbers, right, I mean, wow,
eleven and then you add I mean why because to me,
the biggest question of this game, beyond Cousins, why were
(33:20):
they so good early and so bad San Francisco's defense later? Well,
a big part was the injuries, and they are going
to get some of these guys back. UM, their middle
linebacker Alexander likely to play for San Francisco. It's still
just likely. He very likely, all right, and d Ford
is going to be a game time decision, but most
of the experts expect him to come back. He's been
out since the middle of November. He's their best lineman
(33:41):
for UM the A team. Yeah, So here's what I
would say. I am not going to bet San Francisco.
I don't think if Alexander doesn't play, I would really
be cautious. What I know is I can't play Minnesota,
so for me, and remember, the most important thing you
can know here is what are you bet? Maybe one
out even if you're high volume, but one out of
four games during the regular season, and for sixteen you
(34:04):
might have four. Well, there's only four games, guys, four
So if you bet one year bat one out of four.
You bet two year bat and double what you usually do. No,
you don't want to do that, right, be conservative here
and obviously my picks the best. No, no, no, no no,
But everyone gets to the side. That's the beauty of it,
all right, And we're trying to give him all the
(34:24):
facts to decide. So for me, it's San Francis pass.
Here's what concerns me. If you look at this total,
and we did the math on the podcast. And by
the way, you can get this show podcast your search
r J Bell or our deep dive on the Dream preview.
It's up right now, favorite podcast player. Just subscribe to
both of them. What the heck, it's free. I mean
(34:45):
you want to be bad. I mean it's not even bad.
That's good. What we figured out was that this total,
which is currently at assumes pretty much that San Francis
is gonna be as good as they were in the
first seven weeks, right, because otherwise this thing would be
like if we assume what we saw in the last
nine was true, this baby would be like ten points higher.
(35:06):
We figured exactly. So the markets telling you are assumption
is San France d is back to the world class.
First seven games. I know they might get a player
or two back, or they probably will. I don't know
if that does it. I don't know if that does it.
That keeps me away from San France. All right, three
games down? When to go? And that game, well, it's
Steve Physics, the only guy to win the Super Contest twice.
(35:28):
His best better the weekend that's coming up next to
He's r J. Bell. I'm Jonas Knox. Is the pregame
show you've always wanted, and it's money making time next
year on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has the
best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of
our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within
the I Heart Radio app search f s R to
(35:49):
listen live. I'm r J. Bell. We are straight out
of Vegas, and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of you the Van.
I'll tell you this just Physics best bets coming. Just
you what kind of man he is? And you might
be appalled by this, but you might think that's who
I wanted bet with. There's a fellow we got. I
got a new Mike, Brad has a new mic. You know,
(36:10):
we're having some fun with it, but we haven't built
a set around. You know, we just need a set
builder to come in. We had a fellow named Esteban.
He built a set for six years ago. He built
a set forwards eighteen months ago, and Fezik probably met
him three times. I say, Esteban is coming next week.
He goes who, and then like it took me like
(36:30):
three minutes explain who it was, and finally waved his
hand and goes, oh, that's the help. You gotta win
bets to have silver spoons, though, let's be candid life
find the gated community. I don't no idea. Guys, before
(36:51):
we get to this best bet from Steve Fezick behind
his gated community, want to let you know we are
brought to you by AutoZone. Autozon has more ways for
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auto Zone. It is the last of our four game
preview in the NFL's Divisional Playoffs. It's the finale on
(37:12):
Sunday Night, where the Packers right now are four and
a half point favorite, hosting the Seahawks. I like Green
Bay minus the four and f and I bet green
Bay Seattle is overrated. R J. You picked up on
this before I think anybody else. We'll see, right, because
if they make the championship game, I think a lot
of people are gonna be chirping on Twitter. Well they've yeah,
they certainly see. I has already been leaking oil here.
(37:32):
At the end of the year, they're eleven and two
in close games decide by one score, so Seattle overalls
twelve and five. But the only reason they're twelve and
five is because they've won all of these close games.
And let's face it, even the playoff win at Philly.
They're fortunate that when you hear Wentz one in that matter,
that's what everyone said they would have won with that
Wentz and then went even as it turns out McCown
(37:53):
came and he was playing with a torn hamstring in
the second half as well. And you're over forty. It's
hard to tell. Yeah, it's a good point. Now, what
I will say is this, Brad, you had an amazing
stat Seattle has tied. Now. Only one other team, the
two thousand fifteen Broncos, have had this many one score
wins in the seat that is correct. Only the Broncos
of that year have had this many one score wins.
So this is effectively the luckiest team tied in the
(38:16):
history of the NFL. You might say luck it's Russell Wilson.
Russell Wilson before this season was three games below one
score games. So I trust the longer stats. He's like
everyone else, and there's a huge matchup edge in this game.
How do you beat green Bay? Your run all over them,
You're run through them. Well, there's no running backs left
for Seattle to do that, and the yards per carry
(38:38):
last game it was like one point one or something
with their key back right for both Lynch and for Homer,
They've got no one who can accomplish that and take
advantage of the green Bay weakness. So your best bat
is on green Bay minus the four and a half.
And remember something, guys, the home field advantage for green
Bay is maybe the best in the NFL. Seattle in
them now. Seattle w is seven one on the road
this year, but over the course of the last three years,
(39:00):
last five years, they're not a great road team. Seattle.
I trust the longer term stats again, right, this is
really about do you trust the seven and one or
do you trust that they're an average row team, or
at least considering how good the team has been, there
not a superior road team. Do you trust that Russell
Wilson over his career is just a few games over
close games even now, or do you trust this season
(39:23):
with the historic amount of close wins. I always want
to trust if it's apples to apples the bigger stats.
And by the way, guys, my total, we'll give it here.
But podcast has the analysis if you didn't hear it
over in Kansas City my favorite. But I'm in a
five thousand all the Charity Challenge on radio in New
York and I'm up a half a game, so the
(39:44):
stakes are high right now, heads up, and I have
green Bay, so on the side. I agree with Fez.
Remember that home field advantage is even more so because
of the surface of the field and green Bay surface.
If it does snow drizzle anything, it takes even more
being familiar with that surface. Green Bay's edge goes up
if the weather is bad at home. I agree with
(40:05):
FASA's best back green Bay. If you missed any of
today's show, including multiple best bets, and the best bet
of the century so far. Excuse me the decade. Check
out Fox Sports Radio dot com. We are back on Monday.
Right here on FS are
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