January 9, 2019 • 41 mins
On today's Straight Outta Vegas: RJ Bell and the crew take a deep dive into every divisional playoff match up this weekend including the biggest question heading into each game. The guys examine all of the coaching hires in the last 24 hours and detail what the league is telling us about the disparity between offense and defense. Also, the guys talk about how rule changes at the high school level are having an impact on the NFL!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Don't listening to Fox Sports Radio. This is straight out
of Vegas. With the voice of Vegas, your host r
J Bow, correct scientist, the pregame show America has always
(00:29):
won it from the biggest trip. Here's r J Bow.
You heard it. I'm r J Live Coast to Coast
three o'clock Pacific, six o'clock on the East Coast. Action
(00:51):
packed our for you Wednesday, bottom of the hour. The
biggest question in each of the four NFL playoff game
this weekend. If you know the question, that's key. It
helps you pick the winner. That's gonna be our first
extended look at the playoffs. Also, what does the NFL
(01:12):
tell us? What are they telling us with these coaching hires.
It's what everyone's talking about. Colin was talking about it
a bunch today and I think it's telling us something
pretty important. Speaking to the NFL. Steve Ezik, NFL expert,
joins us in studio. Also, all the college knowledge Brad
(01:33):
powers sports bettors listen for the money. Sports fans listen
to no more than their bodies. My personal promise, we
will deliver the Vegas truth to you. But you can't
have pros without Joe's He is Joe, and it's not
always good to be here? Are j on Straight out
of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio, and we start
(01:54):
in the NFL. Two more head coaching positions have been filled.
The Cleveland Browns have hired Freddie Kitchens to take over
the team. That Denver Broncos have hired Bears defensive coordinator
Vic Fangio as their new head coach. So we're gonna
look at this from a couple of different angles, first
of which being their path to get there. We've got
(02:14):
four offensive coaches that have been hired and one defensive
coach with three spots still remaining. R J. What is
the Vegas perspective on the split? Well, I think this
is such a fascinating conversation. We were in our Straight
out of Vegas production meeting looking at d V O
A and Advanced metric comparing offense and defense, and that's
(02:35):
the question, how important his offense? How important his defense
when it comes to winning in the NFL. In two
thousand nineteen, and I don't know if you've heard it's
two thousand nineteen. Do you know that writing it down?
I'm I'm guessing you wrote two eighteen a few times
in the last week, I wrote two thousand and nine
(02:56):
ones Reese least he's honest, but things have changed. And
I would make the following point. And I'm gonna ask
this question and answer honestly, seven years ago. Let's just
use a lucky seven. It's been a while, not that
(03:17):
long ago. Two thousand and twelve doesn't when Romney and
Obama were running, doesn't seem like that long ago. All right, Okay,
if you would have had a team that was the
second best offense and the nineteenth best defense, and oh,
by the way, that's what we have with the Rams.
(03:38):
All right, So this year the Rams fas you've thought
at various times, one of the best teams of the decade,
the Rams. Now, if you come back, I can't remember
if you come back on that. Yeah, we've concurbed our
enthusias a little bit there, okay, but still a top team.
Where do you get the Rams in your power rank? Okay?
So second best offense by d v O, A nineteenth
best defense for the Rams. You're saying, add it up,
(04:00):
it's the third. It's like, well, wait a minute, to
divide two plus nineteen twenty one divided by two is
ten and a half, How in the heck are they third? Okay, Now,
imagine a team that had the nineteenth best offense and
the second best defense seven years ago, two thousand twelve,
(04:20):
I would have said those are equal teams. Offense and
defense both matters, and actually, come playoff time, I prefer
the team that was number two in defense because with
the colder weather and the conditions, defense wins championship. I've
heard that a few times today. If you've got the
second best defense in the nineteenth best offense, you're probably
(04:45):
sitting at home watching. In fact, if you look at
the offensive ranks of the eight teams left number one,
number two, number three, number four, number five, then you've
got the Coats number ten that you can make the
case the coach should be better than that. Andrew Luck
(05:07):
was on, it wasn't healthy at the beginning of the year,
and if you look over the last eleven games, the
Coats ten wins one losses straight up obviously better than
they were when they started one and four. But season long,
culture ten Philadelphia number sixteen. But you could make the
(05:27):
case Philadelphia this season, the way they played, wouldn't have
made the playoffs. It was Nick Foles stepping in and
playing better. At least the whole offense was playing better
than sixteen, and then Dallas at four. Now Dallas is
interesting because the idea that their defense isn't that great.
(05:49):
In fact, the Dallas d is nine. So the idea
you got nine and twenty four nine on defense and
offense does is not? The rest appear to succeed. In
two thousand nineteen, there the aberration, and we can talk
about what we think that means. But also notice Colts underdog,
(06:10):
Philadelphia underdog, Dallas underdog. So amongst the favorites this week
in the division round, four of the five favorites or
or all four of the favorites our top five in offense.
Now let me say that one more time. We're in
(06:31):
our final eight teams. We've got four favorites in those
four games, and those four favorites all are in the
top five in d v o A offense. By the way,
the best defense the Bears, they're sitting at home. Second
best defense, Ravens, they're sitting at home. After that, a
(06:57):
lot of them did even make the playoffs amongst the
elite DS. In fact, the best defense amongst these teams.
So as we said, the five best offenses in the
playoffs right now in the final way one five. All right,
the five best defenses. Chargers are number eight, Dallas is nine,
(07:19):
Culture ten, but it's kind of surprising they're on the row.
Saints are eleven, and New England is sixteen rams or
nineteen cases twenty six. I do think it's interesting. We
kind of got an idea, well, there's great offenses and
bad defenses. We actually no, there's only one defense of
the final eight worse than nineteen based on d v
(07:43):
O A. So what I'm what we're seeing here is
to be really good in the NFL in two thousand nineteen,
you've got to have a great offense, but you can't
have a bad defense. Now, Kansas City, which has the
number one offense, is trying to compensate by being so
great on offense. They can compensate, but boy, I tell
(08:06):
you then, usually numbers point you in a direction, but
they don't paint such a clear picture. I mean, four
favorites on division around weekend or on the top five
and offense, and there isn't one team left in the
top of the top seven defenses in the NFL are
all sitting at home boy, that is strong, Jonas. I mean,
(08:31):
you're a fan, as you've watched these games, as the
NFL has evolved, it feels like this snuck up on
is that we could say, Oh, offense is a little
more important in defense. It's like almost like defense doesn't matter. Now.
I know it does. You can't be horrible, but boy,
(08:52):
it doesn't seem close to anymore. What do you think? Yeah,
we always were taught growing up. I know you're grown
up a Steeler fan. If you can play defens and
run the ball, you've got a chance. And it's just
not the case anymore. The game is changing, it's evolving.
It benefits the offense, and I think we just assumed
it was going to be the same old thing when
we got in. We haven't seen the points. But you've
got to have an offense that can go down the
(09:14):
field and get you points when you need it. Example,
Philadelphia could, Chicago couldn't. That's why they're playing this weekend.
I think very well said. And you've got to handicap
accordingly if you want to be a smart fan, and
no more than your buddies, if you want to win money,
whatever it is, stuff from even ten years ago. It's
(09:39):
just not applicable. And there's a lot of old timers
in in the sports batting business media whatever you wanna
call it, towts. They got their trends from the eighties
and it's good defense and Russian for this many yards
and okay, fine, but history is not necessarily applicable bowl
(10:00):
And that's what makes when what Physik has done, as
you know, one of the most successful and one of
the most famous professional sports betters in the world. I'm
known all over the world. It's a The amazing part
of it isn't any given time you won the Super
Contest twice back to back. That's amazing, but in a
(10:25):
weird way. What's more amazing is and that was what
two thousand nine and ten eight nine. What's more amazing
is is as early as two thousand two, your professional
better making a living at it, and now in two
thousand nineteen you're still making a living at it. That
is tough. Why because we all change, Right, people have kids.
(10:50):
Ten years ago, you didn't have a kid. Fast Now
you've got a boy you're playing chess with. You gotta
find a way to spend that time and still be
a grinder, right, I'm up at six thirty am a
lot more now, r J. There you go. And on
the other hand, though, we all change, right, So ten
years ago you were you know, uh, you know, forty four,
and now you're fifty four, right, is that the right
(11:11):
age five? And we all change. Now in theory, you're
getting smarter, but at a certain point you start losing energy.
At a certain point, the synapses don't quite fire the same.
I haven't mentioned it, but fair enough. And at a
certain point you can't bench two hundred pounds that you
just did a few months ago. So yeah, we all
(11:33):
change his people, But what makes it even tougher is
the market itself changes. If you were one of the
best betters in the world sports in two thousand ten
and you completely went off the grid, right, you got
to win a bago, You went out into the country
(11:54):
Jeremiah Johnson style, right and making your beans in the
iron skillet. You come him back and you said, you know,
I'm out of money. I'm just gonna do a couple
of years and kill the NFL. That handicapper and as
you were right in the middle of it, they're winning
super contest. That handicapper is gonna get his butt handed
to him in two thousand nineteen. Now, if he's a
(12:16):
great handicapper, he's gonna go back and figure out what happened.
He's gonna evolve his style. But boy, the game has changed,
and we see it with coaches. Uh. Some coaches are
pretty competent for a while and then eventually they're like, oh,
the game has passed him by same thing from a
Vegas perspective, would you agree, oh, strong win. Just the analytics,
(12:36):
the the Eagles going for it on fourth and two,
when the old school coaches punt, it makes a big difference.
So when we come back, and this is such a
macro topic, and I think it's teaching us a lot
about the evolution of the NFL, We're gonna finish about
the offense, defense, but also discuss youth versus experience when
(12:57):
it comes to coaches. Because Colin Cowherd has been ranton,
I actually think he's wrong about this one that's coming up.
Next to He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox, and
this is the pregame show you always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
(13:19):
Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell. We are Straight
out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of You
the Fan coming up here in just a couple of moments,
a deeper dive into the new coaching carousel in the NFL.
Each weekday, we have fun bringing the fun of Vegas
straight to you right now on the strip sixty two degrees.
You've heard it January sixty two, Living the Dream and
(13:43):
then Neon is chugging along. So a few minutes ago
here on Straight out of Vegas and if you missed
any of it, you can catch the podcast. After the show,
we had a pretty compelling discussion about offense versus defense
and how much it's changed in the last decade. R G.
There's actually a deeper, I guess, a deeper conversation to
(14:03):
be had with it outside of what we talked about
a few minutes ago. What does Vegas think looking deeper
into the offense versus defense trend in the NFL? Yeah,
I mean to me, And let's just recap the headline.
The headline is the number one, two, three, four, five,
six seven Defense are all eliminated. There's not a single
(14:25):
team in the final A that made the top seven
in defense. So imagine in business, you set goals, right,
so you're the goal is, let's have the best defense. Well,
what's the parent goal to that. The parent goal is
going to make the playoffs? When the Super Bowl? So
the number one team, best defense, we're not playing in
(14:45):
the final division from the divisional round on number two,
number three, number four, number five, number six, number seven.
Defense all out. Now, if you flip on the other side,
offense number one, two, three, four, and five, I've all
still playing. So I get it. Defense wins championships. Most
(15:06):
people know that's out, that's outdated. Offense is more important
in defense. I think most listeners know that too. But
to the degree that's the case, that offense is king,
it just is mind blowing. If you're in the top
five in offense, you are playing today, and if you're
(15:27):
in the top seven in defense, you're not playing today.
R J PO straight out of Vegas, Brad. I've got
a few ideas why one. I think rules the rules
are getting to eat and and let's not I'm not
making a value judgment, right, I mean the acistential crisis
for the NFL is head injury. If kids stop playing football,
(15:50):
eventually football won't be king. So they gotta do what
they gotta do. Okay, But I think it's more than
just the rules. I think it's the pop ularity of
football itself. The seven on sevens. Now, you're the college expert,
you actually do some serious work when it comes to
high school recruiting. Rumor wise, you used to beat, you
(16:11):
used to have to lay one twenty, but you bet
a few high school games when you're back. I'm not
saying you did or didn't. Explain to me why the
the change at the high school level is affecting offense
being so dominant today. Well, you mentioned it seven on sevens.
There's more specialization at the high school leveling kids when
you're growing up, Are you playing three different sports? That's
(16:33):
not necessarily the case, and he wants not very well,
but I was very different sports. Specialization is the key. Now.
Now this kid is playing football twelve months out of
the year, so you get specialization at the quarterback spot.
And we're seeing it not only in the NFL, these
young guys being able to compete immediately, but even at
the college very recently. Last four or five years. These
very young quarterbacks can come in right away and win
(16:55):
a championship level. I mean Trevor Lawrence obviously the story
of the week so far in sports, but I would
make the case prior to just a couple of years ago,
there's never been a freshman quarterback in college football that
was a massive difference maker. Right and now, just in
the last couple of years, we've had more than a
(17:15):
few make a difference. Yeah, before Johnny Football in two
thousand and twelve, none and Johnny was a red shirt freshman.
Then the year after, Jameis Winston was a red shirt freshman,
even before red But I'm saying true freshman, true freshman now.
So I think it's specialization, But I also think it's weather.
(17:36):
It's seven on seven. Where are the recruiting hotbeds, and
this drives who has the best teams oftentimes Florida, Texas, California.
And what are they doing in the spring. Are they
running track and field? They playing baseball? And not only
are they getting ready for football, these players young teenage players,
but they're throwing the ball because if you're by yourself,
(17:59):
you're not necessary early working on tackling you're not necessarily
working on blocking. You're throwing the ball. And I'll tell
you this, whatever you do in life, whatever you are
gonna involve yourself. Fan we always talk about discipline, and
Colin talks about being buttoned up, and that is important,
but it's also what's your default. So let's think about
(18:22):
let's say hip hop or rappers. Let's say is if
you see it depicted in movies, and obviously movies are
an imperfect depiction. It's oftentimes let's look at eight mile
for example, there's the kid. He doesn't have much going on,
but he's got his little black notebook and he's writing
in it on the bus. And he's also whenever he
can have three people watch him, he wants to wrap.
(18:44):
He wants to do his thing, whatever that thing is.
In soccer in Argentina, Brazil, Germany, what are the kids doing.
They're walking around with a soccer ball, they're hitting that,
They're playing that ball like it's an extension to them.
And oh, by the way, when you see them play
soccer when they're twenty three, it feels like an extension
(19:05):
of them because it's what their passion is for. And
today you don't see many seventeen year old kids saying
I want to concuss the opponent or I want to
strip sack them. You're seeing them walking around with their
footballs throwing outside in between classes, and it's what is
in the d n A of the football players today.
(19:25):
It's offense. It's throwing. And I think just the skill
set of these offenses and the quarterbacks and the receivers
today versus twenty years ago is really night and day.
And if anything, I think it's gonna be more and
more like that. And if you really think about if
the rules keep evolving towards offense and the skill set
(19:46):
for football keeps evolving to offense, I think we're gonna
look back now is a time of defense? In ten years,
I guess we'll see. But to wrap it all up, well,
the decision acres the owners, the billionaires. Yeah, we can
say they're out of it, those stupid billionaires. In probably
not true. They're saying offense, offense, offense, and yeah, if
(20:13):
you're the best defensive coordinator, maybe we'll give you a job.
But so far four of the five coaches hired. Offensive
focus another aspect here on straight out of Vegas. We're
gonna take a look at is the youth verse experience
movement in the NFL when it comes to the head
coaching hires r J. What does Vegas make of the
decision making of owners to hire a youth over experience.
(20:36):
I gotta tell you, I think that we might all
be asking the wrong question. And Colin Cowherd Ranton and
Raven old school Colin remember the Sopranos, and Richard Proul goes,
I'm old school. Janna is well, Colin feels Richie Prial style.
(20:56):
Maybe not necessarily running people over with trucks. But the
idea that all we got the kids, they're not really kids, right,
the thirty somethings, the forty somethings with abs and the
hair gel and all that. And I get it right.
I love the idea you gotta earn your stripes. I
(21:17):
love the idea that a guy like Balochick he's forgotten
more about football than your I will know. And you
know the idea that ballotcheck is gonna say, well, Masslin
ran a single win back in forty seven. That's the
way we're gonna stop the Wildcat. But the question is,
who are these people? If we say old school coaches.
(21:42):
They put their time in. We got Blotcheck, we got
Andy Reid. I think Arians certainly falls onto that list
of elite old school coaches experience. But here's the question,
who's next on the list. So let's think about wouldn't
love E Smith be on that list? Right? And what
(22:07):
happened when Levy Smith leaves in? A young coach comes
in with the Rams. There might be a coach some
would say old school, Oh it's all about defense. Oh
he made the Super Bowl. And I don't see a
lot of people Russian to hire that fellow, Jeff Jeff Fisher,
so obviously. So now the question is, and let me
(22:32):
open up the question, Jonas brad Faz, who's the next
tier of these old school coaches, even guys coaching today?
I mean on the field that you think if I
was a GM, Yeah, you'd want ballot Check. Yeah, you'd
want Andy Reid, Yeah, you'd want Bruce Arians. And I'm
not saying there's not a couple more. Who who's after that?
(22:54):
Pete Carroll? All right, Pete Carroll, go ahead, Hardball, Okay,
I hear you, because now you look at you. I
think John Harball is a brilliant coaching mind. But it
feels like Jim's getting passed by. And you know, again,
not that Jim Harball isn't necessarily a really really good coach,
(23:16):
you know, and some people critique him, but the fact
of the matter is he's in a good coach. But
is he In the conversation with Dabo Sweeney, if somehow
Michigan would have got in, would you think they would
have stopped Clemson? They know? It feels like they're playing
a different game, those old So Belichick is playing a
(23:38):
new game. Andy Reid's playing a new game. Arians played
a new game, and I think he still will be
who else? So I get it. You give me the
next ballot check. Come on, I'll hire him. Give me
Andy Reid, I'll hire him. But if you don't have
those guys, now you've got a choice. You've got a
(24:00):
choice between or let's just say, if you don't have
those guys as a potential higher right, if you don't
have that choice to hire them, now you've got another
choice as a GM, as an owner, which is I
can get an average old school guy or I can
get an average new school guy. And to me, I'd
(24:22):
rather a great old school guy, or even a good
one than an average new school. But if the question
is between an average old school and an average new school,
which seems to be the question, well I'll take the
average new school because what I'm seeing is offense is king,
as we just said, and most of these guys, if
(24:42):
not all, of the new young guys, are offensive coaches.
I'll be honest with you. If you look at Naggi
in Chicago, there was a lot of doubts, like, you know,
how many times is he called plays? And if you
look at even Peterson with the goals, it was the
same question, well wasn't Andy Reid really the O C?
(25:05):
And maybe I don't know the answer to those questions,
but what I know is Naggie's pretty successful, Peters is
pretty successful, and it brings up a point to finish here.
I'm marj straight out of Vegas talking about the evolution
the direction in the NFL and how yes, old school,
(25:26):
if you're great, sounds great. But if you're not great, boy,
those old school average coaches don't see you know, where's
Jason garrett On? I mean, just look at the coaches
that people don't tend to like, you know, obviously Marvin
Lewis has gone now. But if you look at those lists,
it's a lot of old school guys that aren't great.
McCarthy McCarthy, and he's one. Some would say his borderline great.
(25:49):
I don't think he was. But even he got fired,
now we could say that, and maybe McCarthy deserves the job.
I think McCarthy is one of the thirty two best coaches,
but boy, I don't know about the guy below him
on the list. Right. However, you make your list. But
here's what Michael Lombardi said last year that I thought
was super insightful. Former GM for the Browns, mich Lombardi
(26:13):
said he was always looking for the next ballot check
who's the guy that can come in and do everything exceptionally? Wow?
And that was a rare thing. But if you could
find him, you had a winner. You know, Bill Parcels. However,
you want to make that list. Okay, those guys aren't around,
(26:33):
all right, they're they're not there. If Bill Parcels wast
I'd hire him. Okay, he's not. Those guys aren't around.
So the question becomes, how do you compile what you
need for a head coach? And I think it's fascinating
if you look at McVeigh, because McVeigh for the Rams
is supposed to be the prototype. But who did they
(26:54):
hire on defense? In a way, they pretty much said McVeigh,
you're gonna run the offense, Phillips is gonna run the defense.
And it's almost like we've got two head coaches here,
but we're gonna give it to you a name in
name because we need that to get you here because
someone else is gonna grab you up. I mean, that's
the story. So if you look at Peterson at the Eagles,
(27:16):
a lot of people would say, what we're seeing this year?
And now obviously they surged at the end was about
the fact they lost frank Reich, was about the fact
that they lost some other coaches and that he had
an amazing staff around him. This idea of the one
genius that is gonna make everything work that might be
outdated today, or even if it's not outdated, it's gonna
(27:39):
be rare to find it. So what you gotta figure
out is how do I get good defense, good offense,
good special teams, good leadership, good meta game strategy, when
to punt, when to going forth? Time? If you actually
made a list of all the skills it takes to
be an elite NFL organization. Then ask yourself what's the
(28:02):
most difficult to find? What is the most expensive, And
I would make the case the most expensive skill set
to find in the NFL is elite offensive strategy. And
we just talked at length why that skill set is
the most important skill set because offense is king. So
(28:23):
if offenses king in the NFL, which it una quickly is,
and the skill set that most contributes to offenses your
offensive coaching. From the coaching side, obviously that's this you
want a great quarterback. But from the side of non players,
it's about coaching and if that's the most expensive when
I say expensive, meaning a guy like Freddie Kitchens that
(28:45):
entered this year not even a coordinator, becoming a head
coach means, and a guy like Kingsbury who Colin had
some amazing stats today when they didn't play Kansas, and
it was another you know power from non FCS school,
do you got the number well in Big Twelve play
outside of Kansas thirteen and thirty five as a head
(29:08):
coach not playing Kansas in the Big Twelve in the
Big Twelve play and now he's a head coach in
the NFL. So what it's telling you is the market
is saying that skill set is the most important and
unless you disagree. If you disagree, then go hire defensive
coach because you've got the best one. Think about it.
(29:28):
Denver decided to hire a defensive coach. They got unequivocally
the best defensive coach. But if you think offenses ten
times more valuable or five times more valuable, do you
take the fifth or seventh best and then fill in
the blanks in other ways? It's not about leadership necessarily.
(29:48):
Maybe someone else plays that role. Maybe it's the senior
defensive guy. I think these teams are being fairly smart
unless you fund if it's true that the offense is king,
you gotta get a great offensive mind in to your team.
On your team, and the going price for a great
offensive mind is you give him the head coaching job.
(30:10):
You're not gonna get a great offensive mind if you
don't pay that price. Question is is it worth it?
We're gonna find out in just one minute. We're gonna
break down the four biggest questions on the four NFL
games this weekend. That's coming up next. But for all
the latest from around the world of sports. It's Ralph Irvin. Well,
thank you very much, Jonas, and we begin with the
(30:31):
Cleveland Browns, who have yet to officially announced that Freddy
Kitchens will be their new head coach. That is expected.
The team already fired Greg Williams, the interim head coach
and defensive coordinator from this past season the Denver Broncos.
They'll be bringing in Vic Fangio again. The official announcement
has not yet come, although Fangio did tweet earlier today
that he cannot wait to bring a Super Bowl to
(30:52):
the best franchise in NFL history, Gary Kubiak. He'll be
moving down from the front office to be the Broncos
offensive coordinator. Bruce Harrians hired by the Buccaneers yesterday. Today
he confirmed Todd bowlsby his defensive coordinator. You know, he's
another one. It's like a son, Timmy. So I was
more talking to him about his future. You know, we
all get fired. I've been fired so many times I
(31:13):
can't count him all. Then it led to this and
he thought hard about it. I was done my best
sale job and this and this happened. So we're really excited.
To be back together. Having already earned his degree at Alabama,
quarterback Jalen Hurts has entered his name into the transfer
proor toal To, a necessary step to allow to be
contact by other programs where he could be eligible to
(31:36):
play next season at the new school whereas he headed
where right now, you can find odds at plus one
fifty that he joins Dana Holgers in Houston. Three to one,
it's Arizona, four to one, it's Maryland or five to one,
TCU or U c l A back to you, thanks, Ralph.
We are straight out of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio.
Coming up in about twelve minutes from now here on FS. Alright,
(31:57):
we will have best bet your opportunity to make a
little bit of coin on a Wednesday night. I am
Jonas Knocks, the Voice of You the Fan. He is
the voice of Vegas. R J. Bell. Yeah, and we're
gonna go through these four games. I'm gonna do a
tease here, Jonas is. We're gonna wait. We're gonna do
a game or two now and then pass the break.
I want to do the Kansas City game. We've got
a stat that applies in the Kansas City game. That
(32:20):
is too and nineteen against the spread. Now, who's gonna
want to bet that game without knowing? That's that? All right,
let's knock out a couple of these big games coming
up this weekend. It is the divisional round of the
NFL playoffs, and we're gonna start in l A, where
the Rams are a seven and a half point favorite
hosting the Cowboys. Steve as a NFL expert, what is
(32:41):
the question. If we get the answer to this question,
we've got the winner Gurley's health. How close to is
Todd Gurley? Okay, so what are you reading? Now? This
is where there's gonna be the stuff on the TV.
And then there's the beat writers. There's a Twitter follows
follows that tell you eve in more sometimes what are
(33:01):
you seeing? Well, I'm seeing that he's limited in practice.
So he's at practice, but he's been limited. And there's
talker and the limited in practice is a designation that
they have to put in when when a player is limited.
It doesn't tell you much like sometimes you'll see limited
a practice and then the people that know say hundred
percent he's gonna play. Other times, hey, we're skeptical he's
(33:24):
gonna play. So what are we knowing? And if we
don't know, this is what we dig into. Yeah, it's
still only Wednesday. What are you seeing so far? Yeah,
we do not know yet. My gut tells me r
J that the fact that he didn't play weeks sixteen
or weeks seventeen, I don't think he's a dents. Yeah,
but I guess how much what percentages he need to be,
because it strikes me he could have played those weeks
(33:47):
and in a weird way the fact he did. There's
two ways to look at it. One is he could
have played those weeks and he didn't, which makes him
more ready to play now. Or it could be well,
he didn't play those weeks, so that means he's limited now.
I kind of leaned towards that he could have played,
and thus we probably get arrested. Girly, Yeah, let's do.
(34:12):
Let's do one more game, Jonas. From l A to
New England we go where the Patriots are a four
point favorite, hosting the Chargers. Here's my biggest question. The
travel for the Chargers a couple of weeks ago, so
the last next to the last, no, the last week
of the NFL season. Let's think about that that was
(34:33):
at Denver. Okay, so this is the third trip. Okay.
So they went from l A to Denver, halfway across
the country and back then first week of the playoffs
l A to Baltimore. It's about as far as you
can go and back and now all the way into
New England. Brad, you got a number on this, Yeah,
I just figured this out during a break last three weeks,
counting all the travel more than ten thousand miles for
(34:56):
the Chargers, mileage for the Patriots in that same time
frame zero. You think about it, Pats Week sixteen, home week,
seventeen home week, playoff Round one home by versus a
team in that same time during ten thousand miles one
additional game. And I think one more fact on this
(35:19):
game is the fact they had to prepare for such
a quirky offense Chargers against Ravens. Now all that prep time,
they're changing back almost like a junk ball pitcher one
game in a fastball pitcher the next. Sometimes that transition
is a challenge. When we come back, We're gonna give you.
We're gonna give you that amazing two and nineteen A
(35:41):
t S trend that applies to the Chief Games. That's
coming up next. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks,
and this is the pregame show you always wanted right
here on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific. I'm r J. Bell, We are Straight
out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks, the voice of
you the fan coming up here. In just a couple
(36:03):
of moments, we dive back in to the NFL playoffs
here on Straight at a Vegas. But first there are
a couple of NBA TV games going on eight pm
Eastern time, little over an hour from now. They tip off.
It's the Bucks and the Rockets right now on pregame
dot Com. Milwaukee is a one and a half point favorite.
And you like this game fest, Yeah, I bet Milwaukee
(36:24):
mius one and a half. It is all about Houston
fatigue here. It's their fourth game and seven nights. That's
no big deal. But all games are not created equal.
And the last three games for Houston against Western Conference
contending teams Golden State Game of the Year. Houston wins
by one. Then they have to go to Portland's and
they just played Denver, so this is the fourth straight
(36:46):
game for them against the contending team, and Harden has
been tremendous. You gotta worry about his fatigue. He's had
to shoulder all the offense with Chris paul Out. I
think maybe team a team has been on the road
a bunch, or a team it's played a law recently
in the Rockets, a team that's thinned out. Now, that
Denver game was at at home or away again, Denver
(37:07):
game was at home and they won by twelve. Okay,
but then that Gold State game was away, which was
like the game of the year so far, and then
they had another road game after that. So this is
a fatigue play, yes, and Milwaukee's and cruise control, they
just got done with a long homestand interesting and your
pick to be explicit, Milwaukee minus one and a half.
After the Bucks and the Rockets, it's the Pistons at
(37:29):
the Lakers right now. L A is a two point favorite. Remember, guys,
we don't We're not gonna bet all four NFL games.
We're not betting every t NT game, every ESPN game.
I do think it's interesting. Let's gain a little perspective lakerwise,
without Lebron since his injury, seven games, two wins, five
losses straight up, two and five a t s against
(37:50):
the spread, three wins of the seven so three and four.
So underperforming FEDS the Lakers by any reasonable major sense.
And that's based on expectation, which dropped drastically when Lebron's out.
Still falling short the Lakers. Any thoughts tonight, Yeah, I
don't like the spot for the Lakers. The fact that
it's the third game and four nights, and the first
(38:10):
two games we're both on the road. I avoided this game.
Back to the NFL. We go, guys, and we go
to the a f C where the Kansas City Chiefs
are hosting the Indianapolis Colts. Casey a five and a
half point favorite. And to me, this is the trend
of the week. You're gonna hear it here. First, pregame
dot com research uncovered this one. If you have a
(38:33):
quarterback which is making their first start in the playoffs,
obviously that's what you have with Mahomes. We thought, let's
go back and look at the thirty two starters currently
and you can make some decisions like Nick Foles is
being considered the starter now though you would say on
the depth chart, he's not like we have Alex Smith
(38:54):
as a starter. So pretty much in a perfect world,
you know, coming in I guess Madden this year, who
the starter would have been is the way to think
about it. And here's what's amazing. There's a handful of
starters that that haven't played any playoff games, so Rose
and we don't have any numbers on Mayfield. We don't
have numbers on so think about the list Sam Darnell,
(39:15):
we don't. But amongst the players starting quarterbacks, these are
the best quarterbacks in the world. Their first playoffs start
when they weren't playing against another first time starter. And
we're gonna double back and make sure all the numbers
are exactly right. But this is the general range two
(39:36):
and nineteen against the spread with one push, So forget
to push. We got twenty one games where you've got
what the situation Mahomes is in. You've got a first
time starter and they're playing someone that has experience. The spread,
by definition, is expectation. This is what was expected two
(39:58):
times out of the twenty on the first time starter
exceeded expectations nineteen times out of twenty one. They fell
short of expectations. Boy, if you're thinking about in kse,
you better consider that it is the biggest question of
each NFL game this weekend final one the Saints and
eight point favorite hosting the Eagles. This one, to me
(40:20):
is simple. Do we look at the drop off the
Saints had on that three game road trip because their
defense played exceptionally well for the most part during that
three game road trip, but the offense looked horrible for
the Saints relative to how they looked most of the year.
(40:42):
If you believe that that's the new level for the
Saints offense, then the Saints aren't the best team. They've
got a good offense in that case, and a good defense.
But if that offense for the Saints is as good
as it was at home, and they came back and
played one more home game before that last game that
they didn't play their starters, and in that game at
(41:02):
home they again ran it up, So it really becomes
a question of how good the Saints are offensively. Is
it what we saw during those three down games on
the road or is it what we've seen at home?
And if you answer that question, you know who to
pick in the game. The odd couple is next here.
We are straight out of Vegas, back tomorrow six pm
(41:24):
Eastern time, three o'clock Pacific, right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports
Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio app
search f s R to listen live.
Don't listening to Fox Sports Radio. This is straight out
of Vegas. With the voice of Vegas, your host r
J Bow, correct scientist, the pregame show America has always
(00:29):
won it from the biggest trip. Here's r J Bow.
You heard it. I'm r J Live Coast to Coast
three o'clock Pacific, six o'clock on the East Coast. Action
(00:51):
packed our for you Wednesday, bottom of the hour. The
biggest question in each of the four NFL playoff game
this weekend. If you know the question, that's key. It
helps you pick the winner. That's gonna be our first
extended look at the playoffs. Also, what does the NFL
(01:12):
tell us? What are they telling us with these coaching hires.
It's what everyone's talking about. Colin was talking about it
a bunch today and I think it's telling us something
pretty important. Speaking to the NFL. Steve Ezik, NFL expert,
joins us in studio. Also, all the college knowledge Brad
(01:33):
powers sports bettors listen for the money. Sports fans listen
to no more than their bodies. My personal promise, we
will deliver the Vegas truth to you. But you can't
have pros without Joe's He is Joe, and it's not
always good to be here? Are j on Straight out
of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio, and we start
(01:54):
in the NFL. Two more head coaching positions have been filled.
The Cleveland Browns have hired Freddie Kitchens to take over
the team. That Denver Broncos have hired Bears defensive coordinator
Vic Fangio as their new head coach. So we're gonna
look at this from a couple of different angles, first
of which being their path to get there. We've got
(02:14):
four offensive coaches that have been hired and one defensive
coach with three spots still remaining. R J. What is
the Vegas perspective on the split? Well, I think this
is such a fascinating conversation. We were in our Straight
out of Vegas production meeting looking at d V O
A and Advanced metric comparing offense and defense, and that's
(02:35):
the question, how important his offense? How important his defense
when it comes to winning in the NFL. In two
thousand nineteen, and I don't know if you've heard it's
two thousand nineteen. Do you know that writing it down?
I'm I'm guessing you wrote two eighteen a few times
in the last week, I wrote two thousand and nine
(02:56):
ones Reese least he's honest, but things have changed. And
I would make the following point. And I'm gonna ask
this question and answer honestly, seven years ago. Let's just
use a lucky seven. It's been a while, not that
(03:17):
long ago. Two thousand and twelve doesn't when Romney and
Obama were running, doesn't seem like that long ago. All right, Okay,
if you would have had a team that was the
second best offense and the nineteenth best defense, and oh,
by the way, that's what we have with the Rams.
(03:38):
All right, So this year the Rams fas you've thought
at various times, one of the best teams of the decade,
the Rams. Now, if you come back, I can't remember
if you come back on that. Yeah, we've concurbed our
enthusias a little bit there, okay, but still a top team.
Where do you get the Rams in your power rank? Okay?
So second best offense by d v O, A nineteenth
best defense for the Rams. You're saying, add it up,
(04:00):
it's the third. It's like, well, wait a minute, to
divide two plus nineteen twenty one divided by two is
ten and a half, How in the heck are they third? Okay, Now,
imagine a team that had the nineteenth best offense and
the second best defense seven years ago, two thousand twelve,
(04:20):
I would have said those are equal teams. Offense and
defense both matters, and actually, come playoff time, I prefer
the team that was number two in defense because with
the colder weather and the conditions, defense wins championship. I've
heard that a few times today. If you've got the
second best defense in the nineteenth best offense, you're probably
(04:45):
sitting at home watching. In fact, if you look at
the offensive ranks of the eight teams left number one,
number two, number three, number four, number five, then you've
got the Coats number ten that you can make the
case the coach should be better than that. Andrew Luck
(05:07):
was on, it wasn't healthy at the beginning of the year,
and if you look over the last eleven games, the
Coats ten wins one losses straight up obviously better than
they were when they started one and four. But season long,
culture ten Philadelphia number sixteen. But you could make the
(05:27):
case Philadelphia this season, the way they played, wouldn't have
made the playoffs. It was Nick Foles stepping in and
playing better. At least the whole offense was playing better
than sixteen, and then Dallas at four. Now Dallas is
interesting because the idea that their defense isn't that great.
(05:49):
In fact, the Dallas d is nine. So the idea
you got nine and twenty four nine on defense and
offense does is not? The rest appear to succeed. In
two thousand nineteen, there the aberration, and we can talk
about what we think that means. But also notice Colts underdog,
(06:10):
Philadelphia underdog, Dallas underdog. So amongst the favorites this week
in the division round, four of the five favorites or
or all four of the favorites our top five in offense.
Now let me say that one more time. We're in
(06:31):
our final eight teams. We've got four favorites in those
four games, and those four favorites all are in the
top five in d v o A offense. By the way,
the best defense the Bears, they're sitting at home. Second
best defense, Ravens, they're sitting at home. After that, a
(06:57):
lot of them did even make the playoffs amongst the
elite DS. In fact, the best defense amongst these teams.
So as we said, the five best offenses in the
playoffs right now in the final way one five. All right,
the five best defenses. Chargers are number eight, Dallas is nine,
(07:19):
Culture ten, but it's kind of surprising they're on the row.
Saints are eleven, and New England is sixteen rams or
nineteen cases twenty six. I do think it's interesting. We
kind of got an idea, well, there's great offenses and
bad defenses. We actually no, there's only one defense of
the final eight worse than nineteen based on d v
(07:43):
O A. So what I'm what we're seeing here is
to be really good in the NFL in two thousand nineteen,
you've got to have a great offense, but you can't
have a bad defense. Now, Kansas City, which has the
number one offense, is trying to compensate by being so
great on offense. They can compensate, but boy, I tell
(08:06):
you then, usually numbers point you in a direction, but
they don't paint such a clear picture. I mean, four
favorites on division around weekend or on the top five
and offense, and there isn't one team left in the
top of the top seven defenses in the NFL are
all sitting at home boy, that is strong, Jonas. I mean,
(08:31):
you're a fan, as you've watched these games, as the
NFL has evolved, it feels like this snuck up on
is that we could say, Oh, offense is a little
more important in defense. It's like almost like defense doesn't matter. Now.
I know it does. You can't be horrible, but boy,
(08:52):
it doesn't seem close to anymore. What do you think? Yeah,
we always were taught growing up. I know you're grown
up a Steeler fan. If you can play defens and
run the ball, you've got a chance. And it's just
not the case anymore. The game is changing, it's evolving.
It benefits the offense, and I think we just assumed
it was going to be the same old thing when
we got in. We haven't seen the points. But you've
got to have an offense that can go down the
(09:14):
field and get you points when you need it. Example,
Philadelphia could, Chicago couldn't. That's why they're playing this weekend.
I think very well said. And you've got to handicap
accordingly if you want to be a smart fan, and
no more than your buddies, if you want to win money,
whatever it is, stuff from even ten years ago. It's
(09:39):
just not applicable. And there's a lot of old timers
in in the sports batting business media whatever you wanna
call it, towts. They got their trends from the eighties
and it's good defense and Russian for this many yards
and okay, fine, but history is not necessarily applicable bowl
(10:00):
And that's what makes when what Physik has done, as
you know, one of the most successful and one of
the most famous professional sports betters in the world. I'm
known all over the world. It's a The amazing part
of it isn't any given time you won the Super
Contest twice back to back. That's amazing, but in a
(10:25):
weird way. What's more amazing is and that was what
two thousand nine and ten eight nine. What's more amazing
is is as early as two thousand two, your professional
better making a living at it, and now in two
thousand nineteen you're still making a living at it. That
is tough. Why because we all change, Right, people have kids.
(10:50):
Ten years ago, you didn't have a kid. Fast Now
you've got a boy you're playing chess with. You gotta
find a way to spend that time and still be
a grinder, right, I'm up at six thirty am a
lot more now, r J. There you go. And on
the other hand, though, we all change, right, So ten
years ago you were you know, uh, you know, forty four,
and now you're fifty four, right, is that the right
(11:11):
age five? And we all change. Now in theory, you're
getting smarter, but at a certain point you start losing energy.
At a certain point, the synapses don't quite fire the same.
I haven't mentioned it, but fair enough. And at a
certain point you can't bench two hundred pounds that you
just did a few months ago. So yeah, we all
(11:33):
change his people, But what makes it even tougher is
the market itself changes. If you were one of the
best betters in the world sports in two thousand ten
and you completely went off the grid, right, you got
to win a bago, You went out into the country
(11:54):
Jeremiah Johnson style, right and making your beans in the
iron skillet. You come him back and you said, you know,
I'm out of money. I'm just gonna do a couple
of years and kill the NFL. That handicapper and as
you were right in the middle of it, they're winning
super contest. That handicapper is gonna get his butt handed
to him in two thousand nineteen. Now, if he's a
(12:16):
great handicapper, he's gonna go back and figure out what happened.
He's gonna evolve his style. But boy, the game has changed,
and we see it with coaches. Uh. Some coaches are
pretty competent for a while and then eventually they're like, oh,
the game has passed him by same thing from a
Vegas perspective, would you agree, oh, strong win. Just the analytics,
(12:36):
the the Eagles going for it on fourth and two,
when the old school coaches punt, it makes a big difference.
So when we come back, and this is such a
macro topic, and I think it's teaching us a lot
about the evolution of the NFL, We're gonna finish about
the offense, defense, but also discuss youth versus experience when
(12:57):
it comes to coaches. Because Colin Cowherd has been ranton,
I actually think he's wrong about this one that's coming up.
Next to He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knox, and
this is the pregame show you always wanted right here
on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live editions
of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I
(13:19):
Heart Radio app. I'm r J. Bell. We are Straight
out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knox, Voice of You
the Fan coming up here in just a couple of moments,
a deeper dive into the new coaching carousel in the NFL.
Each weekday, we have fun bringing the fun of Vegas
straight to you right now on the strip sixty two degrees.
You've heard it January sixty two, Living the Dream and
(13:43):
then Neon is chugging along. So a few minutes ago
here on Straight out of Vegas and if you missed
any of it, you can catch the podcast. After the show,
we had a pretty compelling discussion about offense versus defense
and how much it's changed in the last decade. R G.
There's actually a deeper, I guess, a deeper conversation to
(14:03):
be had with it outside of what we talked about
a few minutes ago. What does Vegas think looking deeper
into the offense versus defense trend in the NFL? Yeah,
I mean to me, And let's just recap the headline.
The headline is the number one, two, three, four, five,
six seven Defense are all eliminated. There's not a single
(14:25):
team in the final A that made the top seven
in defense. So imagine in business, you set goals, right,
so you're the goal is, let's have the best defense. Well,
what's the parent goal to that. The parent goal is
going to make the playoffs? When the Super Bowl? So
the number one team, best defense, we're not playing in
(14:45):
the final division from the divisional round on number two,
number three, number four, number five, number six, number seven.
Defense all out. Now, if you flip on the other side,
offense number one, two, three, four, and five, I've all
still playing. So I get it. Defense wins championships. Most
(15:06):
people know that's out, that's outdated. Offense is more important
in defense. I think most listeners know that too. But
to the degree that's the case, that offense is king,
it just is mind blowing. If you're in the top
five in offense, you are playing today, and if you're
(15:27):
in the top seven in defense, you're not playing today.
R J PO straight out of Vegas, Brad. I've got
a few ideas why one. I think rules the rules
are getting to eat and and let's not I'm not
making a value judgment, right, I mean the acistential crisis
for the NFL is head injury. If kids stop playing football,
(15:50):
eventually football won't be king. So they gotta do what
they gotta do. Okay, But I think it's more than
just the rules. I think it's the pop ularity of
football itself. The seven on sevens. Now, you're the college expert,
you actually do some serious work when it comes to
high school recruiting. Rumor wise, you used to beat, you
(16:11):
used to have to lay one twenty, but you bet
a few high school games when you're back. I'm not
saying you did or didn't. Explain to me why the
the change at the high school level is affecting offense
being so dominant today. Well, you mentioned it seven on sevens.
There's more specialization at the high school leveling kids when
you're growing up, Are you playing three different sports? That's
(16:33):
not necessarily the case, and he wants not very well,
but I was very different sports. Specialization is the key. Now.
Now this kid is playing football twelve months out of
the year, so you get specialization at the quarterback spot.
And we're seeing it not only in the NFL, these
young guys being able to compete immediately, but even at
the college very recently. Last four or five years. These
very young quarterbacks can come in right away and win
(16:55):
a championship level. I mean Trevor Lawrence obviously the story
of the week so far in sports, but I would
make the case prior to just a couple of years ago,
there's never been a freshman quarterback in college football that
was a massive difference maker. Right and now, just in
the last couple of years, we've had more than a
(17:15):
few make a difference. Yeah, before Johnny Football in two
thousand and twelve, none and Johnny was a red shirt freshman.
Then the year after, Jameis Winston was a red shirt freshman,
even before red But I'm saying true freshman, true freshman now.
So I think it's specialization, But I also think it's weather.
(17:36):
It's seven on seven. Where are the recruiting hotbeds, and
this drives who has the best teams oftentimes Florida, Texas, California.
And what are they doing in the spring. Are they
running track and field? They playing baseball? And not only
are they getting ready for football, these players young teenage players,
but they're throwing the ball because if you're by yourself,
(17:59):
you're not necessary early working on tackling you're not necessarily
working on blocking. You're throwing the ball. And I'll tell
you this, whatever you do in life, whatever you are
gonna involve yourself. Fan we always talk about discipline, and
Colin talks about being buttoned up, and that is important,
but it's also what's your default. So let's think about
(18:22):
let's say hip hop or rappers. Let's say is if
you see it depicted in movies, and obviously movies are
an imperfect depiction. It's oftentimes let's look at eight mile
for example, there's the kid. He doesn't have much going on,
but he's got his little black notebook and he's writing
in it on the bus. And he's also whenever he
can have three people watch him, he wants to wrap.
(18:44):
He wants to do his thing, whatever that thing is.
In soccer in Argentina, Brazil, Germany, what are the kids doing.
They're walking around with a soccer ball, they're hitting that,
They're playing that ball like it's an extension to them.
And oh, by the way, when you see them play
soccer when they're twenty three, it feels like an extension
(19:05):
of them because it's what their passion is for. And
today you don't see many seventeen year old kids saying
I want to concuss the opponent or I want to
strip sack them. You're seeing them walking around with their
footballs throwing outside in between classes, and it's what is
in the d n A of the football players today.
(19:25):
It's offense. It's throwing. And I think just the skill
set of these offenses and the quarterbacks and the receivers
today versus twenty years ago is really night and day.
And if anything, I think it's gonna be more and
more like that. And if you really think about if
the rules keep evolving towards offense and the skill set
(19:46):
for football keeps evolving to offense, I think we're gonna
look back now is a time of defense? In ten years,
I guess we'll see. But to wrap it all up, well,
the decision acres the owners, the billionaires. Yeah, we can
say they're out of it, those stupid billionaires. In probably
not true. They're saying offense, offense, offense, and yeah, if
(20:13):
you're the best defensive coordinator, maybe we'll give you a job.
But so far four of the five coaches hired. Offensive
focus another aspect here on straight out of Vegas. We're
gonna take a look at is the youth verse experience
movement in the NFL when it comes to the head
coaching hires r J. What does Vegas make of the
decision making of owners to hire a youth over experience.
(20:36):
I gotta tell you, I think that we might all
be asking the wrong question. And Colin Cowherd Ranton and
Raven old school Colin remember the Sopranos, and Richard Proul goes,
I'm old school. Janna is well, Colin feels Richie Prial style.
(20:56):
Maybe not necessarily running people over with trucks. But the
idea that all we got the kids, they're not really kids, right,
the thirty somethings, the forty somethings with abs and the
hair gel and all that. And I get it right.
I love the idea you gotta earn your stripes. I
(21:17):
love the idea that a guy like Balochick he's forgotten
more about football than your I will know. And you
know the idea that ballotcheck is gonna say, well, Masslin
ran a single win back in forty seven. That's the
way we're gonna stop the Wildcat. But the question is,
who are these people? If we say old school coaches.
(21:42):
They put their time in. We got Blotcheck, we got
Andy Reid. I think Arians certainly falls onto that list
of elite old school coaches experience. But here's the question,
who's next on the list. So let's think about wouldn't
love E Smith be on that list? Right? And what
(22:07):
happened when Levy Smith leaves in? A young coach comes
in with the Rams. There might be a coach some
would say old school, Oh it's all about defense. Oh
he made the Super Bowl. And I don't see a
lot of people Russian to hire that fellow, Jeff Jeff Fisher,
so obviously. So now the question is, and let me
(22:32):
open up the question, Jonas brad Faz, who's the next
tier of these old school coaches, even guys coaching today?
I mean on the field that you think if I
was a GM, Yeah, you'd want ballot Check. Yeah, you'd
want Andy Reid, Yeah, you'd want Bruce Arians. And I'm
not saying there's not a couple more. Who who's after that?
(22:54):
Pete Carroll? All right, Pete Carroll, go ahead, Hardball, Okay,
I hear you, because now you look at you. I
think John Harball is a brilliant coaching mind. But it
feels like Jim's getting passed by. And you know, again,
not that Jim Harball isn't necessarily a really really good coach,
(23:16):
you know, and some people critique him, but the fact
of the matter is he's in a good coach. But
is he In the conversation with Dabo Sweeney, if somehow
Michigan would have got in, would you think they would
have stopped Clemson? They know? It feels like they're playing
a different game, those old So Belichick is playing a
(23:38):
new game. Andy Reid's playing a new game. Arians played
a new game, and I think he still will be
who else? So I get it. You give me the
next ballot check. Come on, I'll hire him. Give me
Andy Reid, I'll hire him. But if you don't have
those guys, now you've got a choice. You've got a
(24:00):
choice between or let's just say, if you don't have
those guys as a potential higher right, if you don't
have that choice to hire them, now you've got another
choice as a GM, as an owner, which is I
can get an average old school guy or I can
get an average new school guy. And to me, I'd
(24:22):
rather a great old school guy, or even a good
one than an average new school. But if the question
is between an average old school and an average new school,
which seems to be the question, well I'll take the
average new school because what I'm seeing is offense is king,
as we just said, and most of these guys, if
(24:42):
not all, of the new young guys, are offensive coaches.
I'll be honest with you. If you look at Naggi
in Chicago, there was a lot of doubts, like, you know,
how many times is he called plays? And if you
look at even Peterson with the goals, it was the
same question, well wasn't Andy Reid really the O C?
(25:05):
And maybe I don't know the answer to those questions,
but what I know is Naggie's pretty successful, Peters is
pretty successful, and it brings up a point to finish here.
I'm marj straight out of Vegas talking about the evolution
the direction in the NFL and how yes, old school,
(25:26):
if you're great, sounds great. But if you're not great, boy,
those old school average coaches don't see you know, where's
Jason garrett On? I mean, just look at the coaches
that people don't tend to like, you know, obviously Marvin
Lewis has gone now. But if you look at those lists,
it's a lot of old school guys that aren't great.
McCarthy McCarthy, and he's one. Some would say his borderline great.
(25:49):
I don't think he was. But even he got fired,
now we could say that, and maybe McCarthy deserves the job.
I think McCarthy is one of the thirty two best coaches,
but boy, I don't know about the guy below him
on the list. Right. However, you make your list. But
here's what Michael Lombardi said last year that I thought
was super insightful. Former GM for the Browns, mich Lombardi
(26:13):
said he was always looking for the next ballot check
who's the guy that can come in and do everything exceptionally? Wow?
And that was a rare thing. But if you could
find him, you had a winner. You know, Bill Parcels. However,
you want to make that list. Okay, those guys aren't around,
(26:33):
all right, they're they're not there. If Bill Parcels wast
I'd hire him. Okay, he's not. Those guys aren't around.
So the question becomes, how do you compile what you
need for a head coach? And I think it's fascinating
if you look at McVeigh, because McVeigh for the Rams
is supposed to be the prototype. But who did they
(26:54):
hire on defense? In a way, they pretty much said McVeigh,
you're gonna run the offense, Phillips is gonna run the defense.
And it's almost like we've got two head coaches here,
but we're gonna give it to you a name in
name because we need that to get you here because
someone else is gonna grab you up. I mean, that's
the story. So if you look at Peterson at the Eagles,
(27:16):
a lot of people would say, what we're seeing this year?
And now obviously they surged at the end was about
the fact they lost frank Reich, was about the fact
that they lost some other coaches and that he had
an amazing staff around him. This idea of the one
genius that is gonna make everything work that might be
outdated today, or even if it's not outdated, it's gonna
(27:39):
be rare to find it. So what you gotta figure
out is how do I get good defense, good offense,
good special teams, good leadership, good meta game strategy, when
to punt, when to going forth? Time? If you actually
made a list of all the skills it takes to
be an elite NFL organization. Then ask yourself what's the
(28:02):
most difficult to find? What is the most expensive, And
I would make the case the most expensive skill set
to find in the NFL is elite offensive strategy. And
we just talked at length why that skill set is
the most important skill set because offense is king. So
(28:23):
if offenses king in the NFL, which it una quickly is,
and the skill set that most contributes to offenses your
offensive coaching. From the coaching side, obviously that's this you
want a great quarterback. But from the side of non players,
it's about coaching and if that's the most expensive when
I say expensive, meaning a guy like Freddie Kitchens that
(28:45):
entered this year not even a coordinator, becoming a head
coach means, and a guy like Kingsbury who Colin had
some amazing stats today when they didn't play Kansas, and
it was another you know power from non FCS school,
do you got the number well in Big Twelve play
outside of Kansas thirteen and thirty five as a head
(29:08):
coach not playing Kansas in the Big Twelve in the
Big Twelve play and now he's a head coach in
the NFL. So what it's telling you is the market
is saying that skill set is the most important and
unless you disagree. If you disagree, then go hire defensive
coach because you've got the best one. Think about it.
(29:28):
Denver decided to hire a defensive coach. They got unequivocally
the best defensive coach. But if you think offenses ten
times more valuable or five times more valuable, do you
take the fifth or seventh best and then fill in
the blanks in other ways? It's not about leadership necessarily.
(29:48):
Maybe someone else plays that role. Maybe it's the senior
defensive guy. I think these teams are being fairly smart
unless you fund if it's true that the offense is king,
you gotta get a great offensive mind in to your team.
On your team, and the going price for a great
offensive mind is you give him the head coaching job.
(30:10):
You're not gonna get a great offensive mind if you
don't pay that price. Question is is it worth it?
We're gonna find out in just one minute. We're gonna
break down the four biggest questions on the four NFL
games this weekend. That's coming up next. But for all
the latest from around the world of sports. It's Ralph Irvin. Well,
thank you very much, Jonas, and we begin with the
(30:31):
Cleveland Browns, who have yet to officially announced that Freddy
Kitchens will be their new head coach. That is expected.
The team already fired Greg Williams, the interim head coach
and defensive coordinator from this past season the Denver Broncos.
They'll be bringing in Vic Fangio again. The official announcement
has not yet come, although Fangio did tweet earlier today
that he cannot wait to bring a Super Bowl to
(30:52):
the best franchise in NFL history, Gary Kubiak. He'll be
moving down from the front office to be the Broncos
offensive coordinator. Bruce Harrians hired by the Buccaneers yesterday. Today
he confirmed Todd bowlsby his defensive coordinator. You know, he's
another one. It's like a son, Timmy. So I was
more talking to him about his future. You know, we
all get fired. I've been fired so many times I
(31:13):
can't count him all. Then it led to this and
he thought hard about it. I was done my best
sale job and this and this happened. So we're really excited.
To be back together. Having already earned his degree at Alabama,
quarterback Jalen Hurts has entered his name into the transfer
proor toal To, a necessary step to allow to be
contact by other programs where he could be eligible to
(31:36):
play next season at the new school whereas he headed
where right now, you can find odds at plus one
fifty that he joins Dana Holgers in Houston. Three to one,
it's Arizona, four to one, it's Maryland or five to one,
TCU or U c l A back to you, thanks, Ralph.
We are straight out of Vegas here on Fox Sports Radio.
Coming up in about twelve minutes from now here on FS. Alright,
(31:57):
we will have best bet your opportunity to make a
little bit of coin on a Wednesday night. I am
Jonas Knocks, the Voice of You the Fan. He is
the voice of Vegas. R J. Bell. Yeah, and we're
gonna go through these four games. I'm gonna do a
tease here, Jonas is. We're gonna wait. We're gonna do
a game or two now and then pass the break.
I want to do the Kansas City game. We've got
a stat that applies in the Kansas City game. That
(32:20):
is too and nineteen against the spread. Now, who's gonna
want to bet that game without knowing? That's that? All right,
let's knock out a couple of these big games coming
up this weekend. It is the divisional round of the
NFL playoffs, and we're gonna start in l A, where
the Rams are a seven and a half point favorite
hosting the Cowboys. Steve as a NFL expert, what is
(32:41):
the question. If we get the answer to this question,
we've got the winner Gurley's health. How close to is
Todd Gurley? Okay, so what are you reading? Now? This
is where there's gonna be the stuff on the TV.
And then there's the beat writers. There's a Twitter follows
follows that tell you eve in more sometimes what are
(33:01):
you seeing? Well, I'm seeing that he's limited in practice.
So he's at practice, but he's been limited. And there's
talker and the limited in practice is a designation that
they have to put in when when a player is limited.
It doesn't tell you much like sometimes you'll see limited
a practice and then the people that know say hundred
percent he's gonna play. Other times, hey, we're skeptical he's
(33:24):
gonna play. So what are we knowing? And if we
don't know, this is what we dig into. Yeah, it's
still only Wednesday. What are you seeing so far? Yeah,
we do not know yet. My gut tells me r
J that the fact that he didn't play weeks sixteen
or weeks seventeen, I don't think he's a dents. Yeah,
but I guess how much what percentages he need to be,
because it strikes me he could have played those weeks
(33:47):
and in a weird way the fact he did. There's
two ways to look at it. One is he could
have played those weeks and he didn't, which makes him
more ready to play now. Or it could be well,
he didn't play those weeks, so that means he's limited now.
I kind of leaned towards that he could have played,
and thus we probably get arrested. Girly, Yeah, let's do.
(34:12):
Let's do one more game, Jonas. From l A to
New England we go where the Patriots are a four
point favorite, hosting the Chargers. Here's my biggest question. The
travel for the Chargers a couple of weeks ago, so
the last next to the last, no, the last week
of the NFL season. Let's think about that that was
(34:33):
at Denver. Okay, so this is the third trip. Okay.
So they went from l A to Denver, halfway across
the country and back then first week of the playoffs
l A to Baltimore. It's about as far as you
can go and back and now all the way into
New England. Brad, you got a number on this, Yeah,
I just figured this out during a break last three weeks,
counting all the travel more than ten thousand miles for
(34:56):
the Chargers, mileage for the Patriots in that same time
frame zero. You think about it, Pats Week sixteen, home week,
seventeen home week, playoff Round one home by versus a
team in that same time during ten thousand miles one
additional game. And I think one more fact on this
(35:19):
game is the fact they had to prepare for such
a quirky offense Chargers against Ravens. Now all that prep time,
they're changing back almost like a junk ball pitcher one
game in a fastball pitcher the next. Sometimes that transition
is a challenge. When we come back, We're gonna give you.
We're gonna give you that amazing two and nineteen A
(35:41):
t S trend that applies to the Chief Games. That's
coming up next. He's r J. Bell, I'm Jonas Knocks,
and this is the pregame show you always wanted right
here on Fox Sports Radio. Be sure to catch live
editions of Straight Out of Vegas weekdays at six pm Eastern,
three pm Pacific. I'm r J. Bell, We are Straight
out of Vegas and I'm Jonas Knocks, the voice of
you the fan coming up here. In just a couple
(36:03):
of moments, we dive back in to the NFL playoffs
here on Straight at a Vegas. But first there are
a couple of NBA TV games going on eight pm
Eastern time, little over an hour from now. They tip off.
It's the Bucks and the Rockets right now on pregame
dot Com. Milwaukee is a one and a half point favorite.
And you like this game fest, Yeah, I bet Milwaukee
(36:24):
mius one and a half. It is all about Houston
fatigue here. It's their fourth game and seven nights. That's
no big deal. But all games are not created equal.
And the last three games for Houston against Western Conference
contending teams Golden State Game of the Year. Houston wins
by one. Then they have to go to Portland's and
they just played Denver, so this is the fourth straight
(36:46):
game for them against the contending team, and Harden has
been tremendous. You gotta worry about his fatigue. He's had
to shoulder all the offense with Chris paul Out. I
think maybe team a team has been on the road
a bunch, or a team it's played a law recently
in the Rockets, a team that's thinned out. Now, that
Denver game was at at home or away again, Denver
(37:07):
game was at home and they won by twelve. Okay,
but then that Gold State game was away, which was
like the game of the year so far, and then
they had another road game after that. So this is
a fatigue play, yes, and Milwaukee's and cruise control, they
just got done with a long homestand interesting and your
pick to be explicit, Milwaukee minus one and a half.
After the Bucks and the Rockets, it's the Pistons at
(37:29):
the Lakers right now. L A is a two point favorite. Remember, guys,
we don't We're not gonna bet all four NFL games.
We're not betting every t NT game, every ESPN game.
I do think it's interesting. Let's gain a little perspective lakerwise,
without Lebron since his injury, seven games, two wins, five
losses straight up, two and five a t s against
(37:50):
the spread, three wins of the seven so three and four.
So underperforming FEDS the Lakers by any reasonable major sense.
And that's based on expectation, which dropped drastically when Lebron's out.
Still falling short the Lakers. Any thoughts tonight, Yeah, I
don't like the spot for the Lakers. The fact that
it's the third game and four nights, and the first
(38:10):
two games we're both on the road. I avoided this game.
Back to the NFL. We go, guys, and we go
to the a f C where the Kansas City Chiefs
are hosting the Indianapolis Colts. Casey a five and a
half point favorite. And to me, this is the trend
of the week. You're gonna hear it here. First, pregame
dot com research uncovered this one. If you have a
(38:33):
quarterback which is making their first start in the playoffs,
obviously that's what you have with Mahomes. We thought, let's
go back and look at the thirty two starters currently
and you can make some decisions like Nick Foles is
being considered the starter now though you would say on
the depth chart, he's not like we have Alex Smith
(38:54):
as a starter. So pretty much in a perfect world,
you know, coming in I guess Madden this year, who
the starter would have been is the way to think
about it. And here's what's amazing. There's a handful of
starters that that haven't played any playoff games, so Rose
and we don't have any numbers on Mayfield. We don't
have numbers on so think about the list Sam Darnell,
(39:15):
we don't. But amongst the players starting quarterbacks, these are
the best quarterbacks in the world. Their first playoffs start
when they weren't playing against another first time starter. And
we're gonna double back and make sure all the numbers
are exactly right. But this is the general range two
(39:36):
and nineteen against the spread with one push, So forget
to push. We got twenty one games where you've got
what the situation Mahomes is in. You've got a first
time starter and they're playing someone that has experience. The spread,
by definition, is expectation. This is what was expected two
(39:58):
times out of the twenty on the first time starter
exceeded expectations nineteen times out of twenty one. They fell
short of expectations. Boy, if you're thinking about in kse,
you better consider that it is the biggest question of
each NFL game this weekend final one the Saints and
eight point favorite hosting the Eagles. This one, to me
(40:20):
is simple. Do we look at the drop off the
Saints had on that three game road trip because their
defense played exceptionally well for the most part during that
three game road trip, but the offense looked horrible for
the Saints relative to how they looked most of the year.
(40:42):
If you believe that that's the new level for the
Saints offense, then the Saints aren't the best team. They've
got a good offense in that case, and a good defense.
But if that offense for the Saints is as good
as it was at home, and they came back and
played one more home game before that last game that
they didn't play their starters, and in that game at
(41:02):
home they again ran it up, So it really becomes
a question of how good the Saints are offensively. Is
it what we saw during those three down games on
the road or is it what we've seen at home?
And if you answer that question, you know who to
pick in the game. The odd couple is next here.
We are straight out of Vegas, back tomorrow six pm
(41:24):
Eastern time, three o'clock Pacific, right here on Fox Sports Radio.
Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in
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