September 11, 2025 • 16 mins
Doug riffs about the Thursday night football matchup between the Packers and Commanders. And Doug welcomes Kelley Ford of KFordRatings.com on to break down this weekend of college football action.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
All right, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show. Heres in
the Bonus with Doug Gottlieb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Doug Gottlieb Show in the Bonus Fox Sports Radio, iHeart
Radio App. Hey, welcome in, Oh boo, how are you?
What's going on? How's your day? This is the Doug
Gottlieb Show. It's Fox Sports Radio, iHeartRadio app. Welcome in.
(00:32):
So obviously we got the big NFL game tonight in
Green Bay in Lambeau, and like, I think it's really
interesting on all that is sacrificed for the TV almighty dollar. Right,
And I use the Packers as the example of right,
because Green Bay in so many ways is like a
(00:53):
college town, like a college football town, and the Thursday
night game I just kind of screws up the tailgating, Like, yeah,
people are starting to tailgate already already. I mean you're
talking like noon here people are tailgating, and then they
got to get back and then they got to go
to work tomorrow. Now it does free up your weekend
to where you can do whatever and don't have to
worry about going to the game. But the hotel stays
(01:15):
are different, the travel is different, the field is different,
and again like I'm just I do wonder what the
next wave of sports looks like. I get it, I
get what Roger Goodell has been able to do. Put
the NFL on every different network, every different streaming service,
(01:36):
and just reap all the benefits. But at some point,
these teams that do make gobs and gobs of money,
the cities that help pay for construction of their stadiums
and of all of the different restaurants and whatever, they
benefit from it. But would they benefit more if the
games were always on a Sunday. I just it's into
the dollars and cents of it. Is interesting in terms
(01:58):
of gameplay if you're the Packers, and to a certain
extent obviously if your Commanders too, because it's a road game.
But if you're the Packers, if you can get in
and out of the first two weeks relatively unscathed with injuries,
taking down two potential likely playoff teams, and be two
and oh at home, like there, I don't think there's
(02:19):
a better start to the season. Then you beat the Lions,
and then you beat a good Commander's team at home,
and then give yourself a week and a half before
you prepare for your next week. You're fresh, you're arrested,
you're ready to go for the rest of the season,
and you're you got, you know, a game and a
half up on the Detroit lines to begin with.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
This is the Dug Show on Fox Sports.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
In terms of atmosphere around Green Bay different with the tailgating,
but the prize of potentially being two and oh with
two good wins and a half week off, I don't know.
I feel like this has to be a game where
the pack went.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug gott
Leeb Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the Eye Hards Radio app.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
It's The Doug Gottlieb Show at s Fox Sports Radio.
Kelly Ford joined us. He's got his college football index.
You need to go to his website, go to his
Twitter handle, follow him because we sure as heck do Kelly.
So far in this college football season, what's the biggest
surprise in comparison to the data you had in terms
(03:26):
of your prediction data? You know, and we're only two
and a half weeks in the season.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Yeah, it's been There's still a lot still to happen here. Doug.
But for me, you know, you can go a couple
of ways with this biggest surprise in the positive direction,
I'll say South Florida. I mean, obviously the upset Florida
last week and the swamp. They have one point seven
more wins than my preseason model projected through this point
of the season. Who want to go to the other
(03:52):
end of the spectrum on winds above or below expected,
Kansas State has one and a half fewer wins right
now than we thought they'd have coming into week three.
The other way to look at this, Doug, is who
has improved their power rating the most and who has
seen the biggest drop. South Florida number two and biggest
improvement behind only Florida State. The model has upgraded Florida
(04:13):
State eleven points from the preseason to current I mean, Doug,
that is extraordinary. That amount of improvement in just two
weeks is almost unprecedented. Florida State's off to a great
start this year, much better than many, including my model expected.
Kansas State's the number two biggest faller. The only team
to fall worse, Doug, I'm sorry to say it's Oklahoma State.
(04:34):
The Polks have not performed well, according to the model's expectations,
they're down nine points from the preseason. So Oklahoma State,
Kansas State struggling, Florida State, and Florida acudent South Florida surgeing.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Okay, we got some interesting games this week shot with
the budd three two one. Okay, here's one that's an
interesting team and they lost at home to LSU and
(05:09):
then kind of survived at home after trailing at the
half against Troy last week. Clemson, who preseason wise, I
think you had him in the College Football Playoff A
lot of people did. They're a three point favorite at
Georgia Tech this weekend after some uneven uneven performances these
first two games in what do you think?
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Yeah, Clemson, they're a team that is struggling, right, I mean,
the model has downgraded them five and a half points
from the preseason. That's number one twenty seven out of
one hundred and thirty six FBS team. So it's not
going well right now for Clemson. Yet, a team that
I had pegs to be the representative from the ACC
and the Cogwall playoffs, they are still right there in
the projections for a fight in a spot in Charlotte.
(05:51):
Of course, Florida State and Miami the other two primary contenders,
but the team right behind them all is Georgia Tech
right now number four and my projected conference standings. While
Clemson's been fliding, Georgia Tech has been upgraded about two
and a half points from the preseason. So I do
have Clemson as a small favorite here on the road
fifty seven percent win expectancy, but I think both offenses
(06:12):
have the advantage in this game. The best unit in
this game is Georgia Tech's offense. I have the number
sixteen on that side of the ball now. Conversely, Georgia
Tech's defense at number forty nine is the worst unit
in this game. So the home field advantage getting applied here.
But I do think that Clemson, as things stand right now,
the more talented team, Doug. I have this game with
a watchability score of a nine point two. That makes
(06:35):
it a top five game of the week for me.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
That's that's impressive, Gonna be fun. Okay, here's a big
one Georgia Tennessee. So Georgia three and a half point
favorite in Knoxville. Totals forty nine and a half. Both
teams two and zero in the year, but neither team challenge.
What's the computer model tell us?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
So this is a big game dog nine point eight
out of ten on watchability, that numberumber one game of
the week by that metric, and I Doug I posted
it on Sunday when I update the power ratings. Every
single Sunday morning, new version of power rating comes out,
and then the content flows throughout the week. Based on
the schedule that I've said I've published, my model makes
Tennessee a slight favorite in this game. Georgia opened as
(07:17):
a seven and a half point favorite that has fallen
down to three and a half. I don't think it's
going to continue to move too much. I mean, I'd
be surprised if we kicked and Georgia was less than
a two and a half point favorite. But my model
really likes Tennessee. I likes the home field advantage there
in Knoxville. It's a top ten team for me. Tennessee overall.
They're number four on the defensive side of the ball.
(07:38):
George is a good team. I mean they're number seven
in the model. They're a better team than Tennessee based
on what my models saying. If they played on neutral field.
This is not a neutral field, so I have Tennessee
as a very very small favorite here. Money line, Georgia
has struggled this year. Last week they were downgraded more
than four points by the model, and on the season,
Tennessee's come up about two and a half points. So again,
I think it's the best game of the week, and
(07:59):
my model disagrees with Vegas here. That doesn't happen very often,
but when it does, it has provided value to many
people out there who use it for their recreational purposes.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Backyard brol Pittsburgh taking on in West Virginia. Rich Rod
back at West Virginia. But it's surely they lose to Ohio.
You on the road if you're beating Robert Morris obviously
a massive step up in competition against Pitt. But pitt
beat Crosstown Crosstown School, Ducane beat Central Michigan. I missed
a historic rivalry, but in Morgantown a seven point dog.
(08:32):
What do you think about the ears chance of pulled
off what would be a home win upset.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Yeah, I like them better than Vegas here, but I
do have pitt as a favorite. I have it with
less than seven though, But West Virginia's got a thirty
six percent chance to win this game according to my model, Doug,
and it wasn't good for West Virginia last week. But
all in all, the season projections still haven't changed too much.
On the Mountaineers. I have their number sixty five in
(08:57):
the model. The defense is the better of the two
unit that number fifty two, but Pitt should have the
advantage on both sides of the ball here, in particular
on offense, where I have the Panthers number twenty eight
on that side. Going against what I just said, they're
the fifty second ranked defense for West Virginia, So I
like Pitting this game. I like it to be a
one score game though, like Vegas does. The backyard brawl
(09:18):
is exciting. I know it came back for the first
time in a long time, a couple of years ago
now or a year or two ago now. This is
a great game. It's a lot of fun and lost
a little bit of luster when West Virginia lost last week.
But the hatred flows here and Pitt fans are going
to be looking to get after it in West Virginia.
So I do like the Panthers, but I expect a
close game.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Be sure to catch live editions of the Doug Gottlieb
Show weekday. He's at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
This is the Doug Outleibs Show here on Fox Sports Radio.
Kelly Ford joining us, of course, He's got his k
Ford Ratings index. And m lost a Notre Damement home
last year. Now they travel on the road to South Bend.
They're a six and a half point dog two team
with a lot of talent, two teams with college football
playoff hopes. What do you think the aggie chances are
beat in the.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Irish Yeah, I think that number is just about right, Doug.
I've got Notre Dame minus seven here, so I'm pretty
close to the Vegas line. This to me is the
second best game of the week with regard to watchability
score nine point seven out of ten. Both of these
teams are really good. Notre Dame still a top ten
power rated team. I know they're zero to one on
the year two weeks to go. Lost to Miami on
(10:25):
the road that Sunday night game. They were off last week,
so I think that helps Notre Dames amm though, even
though They're two to zero. They've been downgraded about a
field goal since we started the season, so not performing
to the level of the model expected at home against
UTSA and Utah State. Despite the two wins, this is
still a top twenty team. Though they're going on the road.
Notre Dame knows that their margin for air is getting smaller.
(10:47):
Notre Dame can lose this game and still make the
College Ball Playoff. I believe Doug because let's say they
run the table. They're ten and two, They've won ten
in a row. It's the Notre Dame brand. I just
think a ten and two Notre Dame. You know, it
depends on you have a resume. But I think the
committee's going to be partial to them. So this is
not a do or die game for Notre Dame. But
they know if they lose this one, they had zero
room for air moving forward. I think the fighting Irish
(11:09):
are going to come out and get it done. It's
relatively even in terms of the matchups here. I do
think the best unit in this game is the ann
offense at number nineteen, but they have the worst unit
on the other side at number thirty one. So homefield
advantage is going to be big here, plus the rest
advantage for the fighting Irish from being off last week.
I like Notre Dame by about the biggest spreads.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
What about Utah head to get into Wyoming. I don't
know if you looked at that one. Obviously Wyoming. Utah
plays out too, but nothing like seventy four one hundred
feet and Wyoming. Kind of a cool two and zero
old school whack matchup. Right, It's now big twelve and
I think Mountain West, but it's an old school whack matchup.
Wyoming's a twenty three and a half point dog at home.
(11:49):
That one just screams to me. Take Wyoming.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Yeah, Doug, you know I've looked at this. When we
look at every single game, you can find these previews
all over the website. I think the numbers about rightaw,
I've got a ninety five percent win expectancy here. You know,
you look at the relative advantages. You know you saw
the top ten team on the defensive side of the ball,
they're number nine. For me, this Wyoming offense is number
one oh seven out of one hundred and thirty six
(12:13):
SBS teams. So I'm just not sure that Wyoming's gonna
be able to score many points here. Yes, the altitude
is not nothing. You know, Utah playing in Salt Lake.
They're used to it a little bit, but it's not Wyoming,
so I'll give you that. But I do think Utaw
is and should be a healthy favorite here again ninety
five percent win expectancy. Perhaps the most notable thing here though,
Doug is I have Utah now as the favorite in
(12:35):
the Big Twelve. They've been upgraded more than seven and
a half points from the preseason. That's number four nationally.
Only three teams have been upgraded by the Model more
since the preseason than the Utah youth. So I right
now have Utaw as a very small favorite to win
the Big twelve Conference or at least make it to Arlington,
along with TCU being the other. So this is a
game that you saw what they're going to need to
(12:56):
come out and perform well. Hopefully they're not looking ahead
big Big Big twelve match up next week at home
there in Salt Lake against Texas Tech has seen that
many people talked about being a dark horse or maybe
even more than that for the playoff this year. So
Utah can't afford to look ahead. But I do expect
them to take care of business. I really like their defense.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Okay, two more Florida. LSU Florida disappointing loss at home
to South Florida. Get to South Florida second, but now
they go to Baton Rouge and their seven and a
half point favorites. I mean LSU looked really good against Clemson.
Can can Florida pull off an upset?
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Can Florida pull off an upset? Yes, of course they can.
I I've got it a twenty nine percent win expectancy
for the Gators right there at about seven points. So
what you said was the Vegas line. It was a
disappointing result last week for Florida and they were downgrade
at four points in the model because of it. LSU, yes,
they didn't look good against Clenson getting that win in
a comeback fashion, but last week against Louisiana Tech was
(13:53):
not great. I mean they were downgraded at three and
a half points in the model from from last week's performance.
So this is a huge game. Number three and watch
a bill be at nine point five. I think the
line is about right. I do like LSU in this one, though,
you know, Death Valley is a very hard place to play.
Florida and LSU are rivals. I know it's not maybe
a traditional rivalry, but these two teams do not like
each other, and there's been some big games and big
(14:14):
outcomes here even in recent years, so I expect this
to be filled with hate. But LSU, I think has
enough to get it done. They're number twelve in my model,
Florida down to number twenty this week and it's at
Death Valley.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Awesome stuff, Kelly, all right, last one you mentioned in
South Florida. Earlier they beat Boise State, they beat Florida
at Florida, and now the challenge is even bigger as
they got Miami and the Hurricanes. They have them on
the road. They're seventeen and a half point favorites and
the total fifty seven a half.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
Yeah, I don't think the line should be seventeen and
a half. I've got this closer to, you know, eight
and a half or so. In terms of Miami being
the favorite. It's very early in the year here, Doug.
But one of my favorite things that I have and
my all of my content I produced, is the most
deserving rankings, And basically what that does is it looks
at everybody's you know, achievement so far this year, just
looking at this season's results, nothing else. What have you
(15:10):
accomplished this season relative to expected of a you know,
a common team given your schedule. South Florida right now
would be ranked number three in my most Deserving rankings.
Miami's number four. So these are two teams that are very,
very accomplished through two weeks. Of course, one of them
is going to get a feather in the cap here.
My numbers do like Miami by about eight eight and
a half points. I have Miami number eighteen in the
(15:32):
power ratings. They're at home in this one. USF has
been upgraded, as I said earlier, second most of anybody
since the preseason, but they're still just number forty one
in the model. So it's possible that they're better than that,
and the model is still trying to catch up. I
think that's coming in here, but I don't think Miami
should be favored by as much as they are. I
do expect the Cane to get the win in Miami
(15:53):
right now, sitting very pretty in the acc USF to
their credit, looking like the most likely group of five,
or I should say group six Conference champion now to
be a representative in the Comfortball playoff at the end
of the year.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Kelly, you're the best man. I just love having you on.
We'd love your information. We encourage everybody to go to
your site and check it out. He's the one and
only Kelly Ford. K Ford Ratings is your spot for
all your analytics and predictive analysis that I think is
really going to help you if you lay some money
on it or you just want to be a more
educated fan. Kelly, have a great weekend. Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Thank you, Doug appreciate it always.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
All Right. That's it for the ind The Ones podcast.
Check out the radio show every day three to five
e's from twelve too Pacific, Fox Sports Tradio, Ihart Radio
App'm Doug Gotlie
All right, this is the Doug Gottlieb Show. Heres in
the Bonus with Doug Gottlieb.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Doug Gottlieb Show in the Bonus Fox Sports Radio, iHeart
Radio App. Hey, welcome in, Oh boo, how are you?
What's going on? How's your day? This is the Doug
Gottlieb Show. It's Fox Sports Radio, iHeartRadio app. Welcome in.
(00:32):
So obviously we got the big NFL game tonight in
Green Bay in Lambeau, and like, I think it's really
interesting on all that is sacrificed for the TV almighty dollar. Right,
And I use the Packers as the example of right,
because Green Bay in so many ways is like a
(00:53):
college town, like a college football town, and the Thursday
night game I just kind of screws up the tailgating, Like, yeah,
people are starting to tailgate already already. I mean you're
talking like noon here people are tailgating, and then they
got to get back and then they got to go
to work tomorrow. Now it does free up your weekend
to where you can do whatever and don't have to
worry about going to the game. But the hotel stays
(01:15):
are different, the travel is different, the field is different,
and again like I'm just I do wonder what the
next wave of sports looks like. I get it, I
get what Roger Goodell has been able to do. Put
the NFL on every different network, every different streaming service,
(01:36):
and just reap all the benefits. But at some point,
these teams that do make gobs and gobs of money,
the cities that help pay for construction of their stadiums
and of all of the different restaurants and whatever, they
benefit from it. But would they benefit more if the
games were always on a Sunday. I just it's into
the dollars and cents of it. Is interesting in terms
(01:58):
of gameplay if you're the Packers, and to a certain
extent obviously if your Commanders too, because it's a road game.
But if you're the Packers, if you can get in
and out of the first two weeks relatively unscathed with injuries,
taking down two potential likely playoff teams, and be two
and oh at home, like there, I don't think there's
(02:19):
a better start to the season. Then you beat the Lions,
and then you beat a good Commander's team at home,
and then give yourself a week and a half before
you prepare for your next week. You're fresh, you're arrested,
you're ready to go for the rest of the season,
and you're you got, you know, a game and a
half up on the Detroit lines to begin with.
Speaker 1 (02:36):
This is the Dug Show on Fox Sports.
Speaker 2 (02:39):
In terms of atmosphere around Green Bay different with the tailgating,
but the prize of potentially being two and oh with
two good wins and a half week off, I don't know.
I feel like this has to be a game where
the pack went.
Speaker 1 (02:52):
Be sure to catch live editions of The Doug gott
Leeb Show weekdays at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the Eye Hards Radio app.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
It's The Doug Gottlieb Show at s Fox Sports Radio.
Kelly Ford joined us. He's got his college football index.
You need to go to his website, go to his
Twitter handle, follow him because we sure as heck do Kelly.
So far in this college football season, what's the biggest
surprise in comparison to the data you had in terms
(03:26):
of your prediction data? You know, and we're only two
and a half weeks in the season.
Speaker 3 (03:30):
Yeah, it's been There's still a lot still to happen here. Doug.
But for me, you know, you can go a couple
of ways with this biggest surprise in the positive direction,
I'll say South Florida. I mean, obviously the upset Florida
last week and the swamp. They have one point seven
more wins than my preseason model projected through this point
of the season. Who want to go to the other
(03:52):
end of the spectrum on winds above or below expected,
Kansas State has one and a half fewer wins right
now than we thought they'd have coming into week three.
The other way to look at this, Doug, is who
has improved their power rating the most and who has
seen the biggest drop. South Florida number two and biggest
improvement behind only Florida State. The model has upgraded Florida
(04:13):
State eleven points from the preseason to current I mean, Doug,
that is extraordinary. That amount of improvement in just two
weeks is almost unprecedented. Florida State's off to a great
start this year, much better than many, including my model expected.
Kansas State's the number two biggest faller. The only team
to fall worse, Doug, I'm sorry to say it's Oklahoma State.
(04:34):
The Polks have not performed well, according to the model's expectations,
they're down nine points from the preseason. So Oklahoma State,
Kansas State struggling, Florida State, and Florida acudent South Florida surgeing.
Speaker 2 (04:47):
Okay, we got some interesting games this week shot with
the budd three two one. Okay, here's one that's an
interesting team and they lost at home to LSU and
(05:09):
then kind of survived at home after trailing at the
half against Troy last week. Clemson, who preseason wise, I
think you had him in the College Football Playoff A
lot of people did. They're a three point favorite at
Georgia Tech this weekend after some uneven uneven performances these
first two games in what do you think?
Speaker 3 (05:29):
Yeah, Clemson, they're a team that is struggling, right, I mean,
the model has downgraded them five and a half points
from the preseason. That's number one twenty seven out of
one hundred and thirty six FBS team. So it's not
going well right now for Clemson. Yet, a team that
I had pegs to be the representative from the ACC
and the Cogwall playoffs, they are still right there in
the projections for a fight in a spot in Charlotte.
(05:51):
Of course, Florida State and Miami the other two primary contenders,
but the team right behind them all is Georgia Tech
right now number four and my projected conference standings. While
Clemson's been fliding, Georgia Tech has been upgraded about two
and a half points from the preseason. So I do
have Clemson as a small favorite here on the road
fifty seven percent win expectancy, but I think both offenses
(06:12):
have the advantage in this game. The best unit in
this game is Georgia Tech's offense. I have the number
sixteen on that side of the ball now. Conversely, Georgia
Tech's defense at number forty nine is the worst unit
in this game. So the home field advantage getting applied here.
But I do think that Clemson, as things stand right now,
the more talented team, Doug. I have this game with
a watchability score of a nine point two. That makes
(06:35):
it a top five game of the week for me.
Speaker 2 (06:39):
That's that's impressive, Gonna be fun. Okay, here's a big
one Georgia Tennessee. So Georgia three and a half point
favorite in Knoxville. Totals forty nine and a half. Both
teams two and zero in the year, but neither team challenge.
What's the computer model tell us?
Speaker 3 (06:56):
So this is a big game dog nine point eight
out of ten on watchability, that numberumber one game of
the week by that metric, and I Doug I posted
it on Sunday when I update the power ratings. Every
single Sunday morning, new version of power rating comes out,
and then the content flows throughout the week. Based on
the schedule that I've said I've published, my model makes
Tennessee a slight favorite in this game. Georgia opened as
(07:17):
a seven and a half point favorite that has fallen
down to three and a half. I don't think it's
going to continue to move too much. I mean, I'd
be surprised if we kicked and Georgia was less than
a two and a half point favorite. But my model
really likes Tennessee. I likes the home field advantage there
in Knoxville. It's a top ten team for me. Tennessee overall.
They're number four on the defensive side of the ball.
(07:38):
George is a good team. I mean they're number seven
in the model. They're a better team than Tennessee based
on what my models saying. If they played on neutral field.
This is not a neutral field, so I have Tennessee
as a very very small favorite here. Money line, Georgia
has struggled this year. Last week they were downgraded more
than four points by the model, and on the season,
Tennessee's come up about two and a half points. So again,
I think it's the best game of the week, and
(07:59):
my model disagrees with Vegas here. That doesn't happen very often,
but when it does, it has provided value to many
people out there who use it for their recreational purposes.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Backyard brol Pittsburgh taking on in West Virginia. Rich Rod
back at West Virginia. But it's surely they lose to Ohio.
You on the road if you're beating Robert Morris obviously
a massive step up in competition against Pitt. But pitt
beat Crosstown Crosstown School, Ducane beat Central Michigan. I missed
a historic rivalry, but in Morgantown a seven point dog.
(08:32):
What do you think about the ears chance of pulled
off what would be a home win upset.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
Yeah, I like them better than Vegas here, but I
do have pitt as a favorite. I have it with
less than seven though, But West Virginia's got a thirty
six percent chance to win this game according to my model, Doug,
and it wasn't good for West Virginia last week. But
all in all, the season projections still haven't changed too much.
On the Mountaineers. I have their number sixty five in
(08:57):
the model. The defense is the better of the two
unit that number fifty two, but Pitt should have the
advantage on both sides of the ball here, in particular
on offense, where I have the Panthers number twenty eight
on that side. Going against what I just said, they're
the fifty second ranked defense for West Virginia, So I
like Pitting this game. I like it to be a
one score game though, like Vegas does. The backyard brawl
(09:18):
is exciting. I know it came back for the first
time in a long time, a couple of years ago
now or a year or two ago now. This is
a great game. It's a lot of fun and lost
a little bit of luster when West Virginia lost last week.
But the hatred flows here and Pitt fans are going
to be looking to get after it in West Virginia.
So I do like the Panthers, but I expect a
close game.
Speaker 1 (09:35):
Be sure to catch live editions of the Doug Gottlieb
Show weekday. He's at three pm Eastern noon Pacific on
Fox Sports Radio and the iHeartRadio app.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
This is the Doug Outleibs Show here on Fox Sports Radio.
Kelly Ford joining us, of course, He's got his k
Ford Ratings index. And m lost a Notre Damement home
last year. Now they travel on the road to South Bend.
They're a six and a half point dog two team
with a lot of talent, two teams with college football
playoff hopes. What do you think the aggie chances are
beat in the.
Speaker 3 (10:04):
Irish Yeah, I think that number is just about right, Doug.
I've got Notre Dame minus seven here, so I'm pretty
close to the Vegas line. This to me is the
second best game of the week with regard to watchability
score nine point seven out of ten. Both of these
teams are really good. Notre Dame still a top ten
power rated team. I know they're zero to one on
the year two weeks to go. Lost to Miami on
(10:25):
the road that Sunday night game. They were off last week,
so I think that helps Notre Dames amm though, even
though They're two to zero. They've been downgraded about a
field goal since we started the season, so not performing
to the level of the model expected at home against
UTSA and Utah State. Despite the two wins, this is
still a top twenty team. Though they're going on the road.
Notre Dame knows that their margin for air is getting smaller.
(10:47):
Notre Dame can lose this game and still make the
College Ball Playoff. I believe Doug because let's say they
run the table. They're ten and two, They've won ten
in a row. It's the Notre Dame brand. I just
think a ten and two Notre Dame. You know, it
depends on you have a resume. But I think the
committee's going to be partial to them. So this is
not a do or die game for Notre Dame. But
they know if they lose this one, they had zero
room for air moving forward. I think the fighting Irish
(11:09):
are going to come out and get it done. It's
relatively even in terms of the matchups here. I do
think the best unit in this game is the ann
offense at number nineteen, but they have the worst unit
on the other side at number thirty one. So homefield
advantage is going to be big here, plus the rest
advantage for the fighting Irish from being off last week.
I like Notre Dame by about the biggest spreads.
Speaker 2 (11:28):
What about Utah head to get into Wyoming. I don't
know if you looked at that one. Obviously Wyoming. Utah
plays out too, but nothing like seventy four one hundred
feet and Wyoming. Kind of a cool two and zero
old school whack matchup. Right, It's now big twelve and
I think Mountain West, but it's an old school whack matchup.
Wyoming's a twenty three and a half point dog at home.
(11:49):
That one just screams to me. Take Wyoming.
Speaker 3 (11:52):
Yeah, Doug, you know I've looked at this. When we
look at every single game, you can find these previews
all over the website. I think the numbers about rightaw,
I've got a ninety five percent win expectancy here. You know,
you look at the relative advantages. You know you saw
the top ten team on the defensive side of the ball,
they're number nine. For me, this Wyoming offense is number
one oh seven out of one hundred and thirty six
(12:13):
SBS teams. So I'm just not sure that Wyoming's gonna
be able to score many points here. Yes, the altitude
is not nothing. You know, Utah playing in Salt Lake.
They're used to it a little bit, but it's not Wyoming,
so I'll give you that. But I do think Utaw
is and should be a healthy favorite here again ninety
five percent win expectancy. Perhaps the most notable thing here though,
Doug is I have Utah now as the favorite in
(12:35):
the Big Twelve. They've been upgraded more than seven and
a half points from the preseason. That's number four nationally.
Only three teams have been upgraded by the Model more
since the preseason than the Utah youth. So I right
now have Utaw as a very small favorite to win
the Big twelve Conference or at least make it to Arlington,
along with TCU being the other. So this is a
game that you saw what they're going to need to
(12:56):
come out and perform well. Hopefully they're not looking ahead
big Big Big twelve match up next week at home
there in Salt Lake against Texas Tech has seen that
many people talked about being a dark horse or maybe
even more than that for the playoff this year. So
Utah can't afford to look ahead. But I do expect
them to take care of business. I really like their defense.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Okay, two more Florida. LSU Florida disappointing loss at home
to South Florida. Get to South Florida second, but now
they go to Baton Rouge and their seven and a
half point favorites. I mean LSU looked really good against Clemson.
Can can Florida pull off an upset?
Speaker 3 (13:31):
Can Florida pull off an upset? Yes, of course they can.
I I've got it a twenty nine percent win expectancy
for the Gators right there at about seven points. So
what you said was the Vegas line. It was a
disappointing result last week for Florida and they were downgrade
at four points in the model because of it. LSU, yes,
they didn't look good against Clenson getting that win in
a comeback fashion, but last week against Louisiana Tech was
(13:53):
not great. I mean they were downgraded at three and
a half points in the model from from last week's performance.
So this is a huge game. Number three and watch
a bill be at nine point five. I think the
line is about right. I do like LSU in this one, though,
you know, Death Valley is a very hard place to play.
Florida and LSU are rivals. I know it's not maybe
a traditional rivalry, but these two teams do not like
each other, and there's been some big games and big
(14:14):
outcomes here even in recent years, so I expect this
to be filled with hate. But LSU, I think has
enough to get it done. They're number twelve in my model,
Florida down to number twenty this week and it's at
Death Valley.
Speaker 2 (14:26):
Awesome stuff, Kelly, all right, last one you mentioned in
South Florida. Earlier they beat Boise State, they beat Florida
at Florida, and now the challenge is even bigger as
they got Miami and the Hurricanes. They have them on
the road. They're seventeen and a half point favorites and
the total fifty seven a half.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
Yeah, I don't think the line should be seventeen and
a half. I've got this closer to, you know, eight
and a half or so. In terms of Miami being
the favorite. It's very early in the year here, Doug.
But one of my favorite things that I have and
my all of my content I produced, is the most
deserving rankings, And basically what that does is it looks
at everybody's you know, achievement so far this year, just
looking at this season's results, nothing else. What have you
(15:10):
accomplished this season relative to expected of a you know,
a common team given your schedule. South Florida right now
would be ranked number three in my most Deserving rankings.
Miami's number four. So these are two teams that are very,
very accomplished through two weeks. Of course, one of them
is going to get a feather in the cap here.
My numbers do like Miami by about eight eight and
a half points. I have Miami number eighteen in the
(15:32):
power ratings. They're at home in this one. USF has
been upgraded, as I said earlier, second most of anybody
since the preseason, but they're still just number forty one
in the model. So it's possible that they're better than that,
and the model is still trying to catch up. I
think that's coming in here, but I don't think Miami
should be favored by as much as they are. I
do expect the Cane to get the win in Miami
(15:53):
right now, sitting very pretty in the acc USF to
their credit, looking like the most likely group of five,
or I should say group six Conference champion now to
be a representative in the Comfortball playoff at the end
of the year.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
Kelly, you're the best man. I just love having you on.
We'd love your information. We encourage everybody to go to
your site and check it out. He's the one and
only Kelly Ford. K Ford Ratings is your spot for
all your analytics and predictive analysis that I think is
really going to help you if you lay some money
on it or you just want to be a more
educated fan. Kelly, have a great weekend. Thanks for joining us.
Speaker 3 (16:27):
Thank you, Doug appreciate it always.
Speaker 2 (16:29):
All Right. That's it for the ind The Ones podcast.
Check out the radio show every day three to five
e's from twelve too Pacific, Fox Sports Tradio, Ihart Radio
App'm Doug Gotlie
Host
Doug Gottlieb
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