On today's episode, Jason kicks things off with a few quick thoughts on the recent string of bad luck that has hit the Dallas Cowboys. In the last week, they've lost right tackle La'el Collins, wide receiver Michael Gallup, and pass rushers Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence. I don't know what they did to bring this bad juju on themselves but let's hope it wears off fast. Either way, so long as Dak Prescott remains upright, the Cowboys should still win the division. Moreover, it wasn't clear already, Urban Meyer publicly proclaimed that he will not be taking over as the next head football coach at USC. It really isn't all that shocking; Urban just isn't a fit for Southern California. Now that it's all out in the open, the Trojans can pivot and find themselves a real candidate. Later, professional sports bettor and Covers product manager Adam Chernoff swings by to discuss his 5-0 start in week 1 of the famed Circa contest, why so many bettors tend to overreact to what they saw in NFL week 1, why he's in on Teddy Bridgewater and the Denver Broncos this Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, why the Seattle Seahawks probably aren't as good and the Tennessee Titans aren't as bad as they looked last week, why the Los Angeles Rams blowing out a bad Chicago Bears team on Sunday Night Football shouldn't sway your opinion about them either way, how the Las Vegas Raiders' big win over the Baltimore Ravens might impact the line this week in their showdown against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who he likes in tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup between the New York Giants and Washington Football Team, and much more! Finally, Jason closes the show the TNF edition of the Best Bet.
Click here to subscribe, rate and review all of the latest Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre podcasts!
Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.com
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
The moment we've been waiting for since September is finally here.
In honor of the big game, Draft Kings sports Book,
an official betting partner of Super Bowl fifty six, is
giving new customers fifty six to one odds on either team.
That just five dollars and get two hundred and eighty
in free bets if your team wins. Download the Draft
Kings sports Book app, use promo code straight Fire and
(00:21):
get fifty six to one odds on either team. I
told you guys to get about last week, I said Rayams,
I like chiefs. I hope you're cleaned up. That just
five dollars and get two hundred and eighty in free
bets if your team wins. That's promo code straight Fire
at Draft Kings sports Book, an official sports betting partners.
Super Bowl fifty six must be twenty one year older.
(00:41):
Is the minimum age and location requirements vary by jurisdiction.
See Draft Kings dot com slash sports Book for full
list of requirements and state specific responsible gaming resources. Void
were prohibited gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler In Tennessee,
call or text the t N Red Line eight nine
(01:02):
nine seven eight nine. In Connecticut call seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven, or visits CCPG dot org slash chat.
In New York call eight seven seven eight Hope and Why,
or text Hope and Why four six seven three six nine.
Welcome back to the third Annual Poker Showdown. Wait this
(01:25):
just in. Our top contender is getting a haircut, not
just any haircut, Supercuts and he's back. I checked it
on the app. Super Cuts always gets me in and out.
It's not just any haircut, it's super Cuts camera crew.
The badger is just beyond this brush, Reddy Tyler. Tyler
is getting a haircut. Badges specialist is getting a haircut now,
not just any haircuts, Supercuts and he's back. There's the
(01:48):
Supercuts right around the corner. And I walked in and
there was no wait. It's such just any haircut, it's
super Cuts. A straight Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up?
Straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntire, Straight Fire. Thursday,
(02:10):
September six. Got to start the pod with a shout
out to my old man, Pops turns eighty today. Happy birthday, Dad.
You're probably not listening to this, but making a good
one In sunny Florida. Uh. Actually, the sports world today
has a ton of sports news happening, big and not
always great news. Um, we're gonna get to usc which
we've glossed over on Monday before the Clayhelton firing. Um,
(02:34):
we'll do a little bit Dallas Cowboys in a secon.
But poor Cowboys. Bring on Adam churn Off. You guys
remember him from last year. Ps. He is in the
four million dollar contest, the one that I went three
and two in he went five and oh um, so
he will shed some insights on this week what he's
looking at his process. You guys are gonna love the interview.
So picks for the weekend, and then I'll wrap up
(02:55):
with a best bet for tonight's giants Washington. Um, battle
of awful quarterbacks should be a slop fest, But I
have to start with the Dallas Cowboys. I mean, goodness, gracious,
can they get any more unlucky? The defense is a joke,
can't stop anybody, and they now lose their best defender,
de Marcus Lawrence out six to eight weeks. Holy hell,
(03:17):
have you looked at who they're gonna throw at the Chargers, who,
by the way, have an incredible offensive line. Now after
they stole the Packers center and UH draft traded up
to draft the kid from Northwestern the Dallas Cowboys with
DeMarcus Lawrence on the shelf. With Randy Gregory likely out
this week, they're gonna start a former Jet Terrell bosh
(03:39):
Um at one end. The other end perhaps somebody named
Doris Dorrence Armstrong and never heard of him. First time
I've ever seen his name in my life. Two eighteen
fourth round pick out of Kansas um And on the
inside they're beat up there too, Carlos Watkins and a
kid from U c. L A who I'm not going
to try to pronounce. Uh, folks, this is a gruesome
(04:01):
front four. And we already know that dan Quinn's defense
is not good. At the opener, Tampa Bay mode up
and down the field against him. They made the mistake
in the off season of drafting a linebacker, picking up
Keyan O'Neil, who was a safety, and they said they're
gonna play him at linebacker. I'm just telling this Dallas
defense is a mess. All that being said, they're gonna
(04:21):
still win the division. Sorry to my Washington football team fans. Um. Yes,
the Eagles look scary. Um, Washington will be okay with
the defense, but they're already down to their backup quarterback
Taylor Heineke, who at least he's gonna play for six weeks.
And then you've got the Giants who played at night
and whold my goodness are they in trouble? Um? The
division is that bad. And I think DA's offense is
(04:44):
that impressive, even without Michael Gallup, yes, he is on
the shelf, even without Lyle Collins who is suspended. Um,
I know it, just it doesn't look good for the Cowboys.
But I'm just telling you, as long as Doc is healthy,
Dallas is still winning that division. They the most talented offense.
Offense matters more than defense, and as long as Doak
(05:05):
is standing upright, I expect the Cowboys to win this division.
I don't know if it's with eight wins, with nine,
maybe ten. Um. Obviously, it would not be ideal to
start the season down oh and two heading into Week three,
a big one against Philly on Monday Night Football. Then
it loosens up a little bit. Carolina, New York Giants
Patriots are tough than the bye week. If they can
(05:26):
get to the bye week three and three. That would
be a huge win. I don't know about the Chargers game.
By the way, I just got an invite to check
out so far four Chargers Cowboys. Um, I don't know
if I'm going yet. Uh, I kinda would like to.
I haven't been to a game at so far, although
I did do a walk through with the stadium when
it was getting built. Looks amazing. Um, Chargers Cowboys is
(05:48):
all of a sudden, just such a huge game. I
mean every game feels huge. We talked about this yesterday, like,
there's only seventeen games. You don't want to fall in
an O two hole. Dallas if they fall out two
and Phil they somehow beat San Franz. Dallas is now
two games back of the Eagles, and they play the
Eagles in Week three and you lose that, you know,
(06:09):
overcoming a three game deficit to win the division. Good
luck with that, Dallas Cowboys. They're up against it quickly.
On college football, Uh, it's so funny. We talked about
Clay Hilton in USC on Monday's pod, Like five hours
after the pod drop, they fired Clay Hilton. And if
you go back and listen, the name I had heard
was Byron Leftwich. Since then, a bunch of names have
(06:30):
been floated. Everybody wants to talk urban Meyer. Oh we
can get urban Meyer. He's gonna come out here. Um,
let's just remember urban Meyer was coming out the Fox
for uh it was doing the studio shows last year. Okay,
I'm not getting into the business of how it, how
he liked it, did he like l a? Would he
move here? All that? All I can say is unequivocally,
(06:53):
it's not happening. He's not coming out here to USC.
You guys can dream about it. By in the sky.
They can sell them hard. It would be Buster Douglas
over Mike Tyson if urban Meyer came to USC. That's
how much of a long shot we're talking about. This
guy's old. You think he wants to move across the
country with his family at this stage in his career.
It's just not happening. He's a small town guy. He's
(07:15):
not enough. I would say zero point zero percent chance.
Obviously want to say never, say never. Maybe they throw
all the money in the world at him, but I
would say, unequivocally, it's not happening. They need to set
their sights on more realistic names. Now the name that
keeps coming up is Luke Fickle, who's at Cincinnati, and
by the way, Cincinnati is going to be one of
my best bets for college football this weekend. The problem
(07:37):
with Luke Fickle, anybody you talk to like he's in
that Ohio State mindset where he wants to control everything
and folks, USC is one of these weird programs where
the boosters have a lot of say ah, and I
shouldn't say weird because that's how it goes in a
lot of places. But the USC boosters have a ton
of say and this whole like, oh, we can bring
(07:58):
back the Pete Carol era like that what was then? Error?
That's just not happening again. Have you seen what's happened
since then? Lame Kiffin experiment totally blew up in their face.
Then they passed on Ogeron, who ended up winning a title,
but that's understandable, and they land on Sark, he has
his personal demons. Then I don't really know how they
(08:19):
fell into Clay Helton. He salvaged the season when Sark
left and got kind of like a hey, let's let's
have Clay Helton just stay on. He's a good guy,
and the boosters can kind of run the scenes, run
the show behind the scenes. And Clay went ten in three,
eleven and three with Sarks guys, and then what Happensen
disaster disaster? It was good, but come on, it was
(08:41):
a COVID shortened season. And now you lose to Stanford
when you're favored by a million. That was an ugly loss.
I just think the more realistic names are guys along
the lines of a Byron Leftwich, a player coach, who's
a young guy who's worked with Tom Brady. Uh, want
a Super Bowl again. He's not a USC guy. But
(09:03):
sometimes this idea of oh, we need to keep it
in the family. We we gotta get a USC like that.
Remember the Lakers tried that. Like that doesn't always work.
Running your business like a mom and pop shop doesn't
always work. Just keep it in the family, like sometimes
it's best to just go outside the family. Find somebody
who really, really will be a good fit at USC. UM.
(09:26):
Some of the other names that are that are out
there are legitimately comical. Um urban Meyer was so perturbed
he actually open to press conference on Wednesday with no,
I'm not going there, There's no chance, No shot. It's
just not happening. Um, I just people need to stop
(09:46):
talking about that now. James Franklin of Penn State is
a super popular name. Um another guy who's kind of
a control freak. But listen, a lot of these coaches are.
Franklin has done some great things at Penn State. I
think he's attainable. Could they get Tom Herman? Sure? Will
they want Tom Herman after what happened in Texas? Probably not? Um,
Gus Small's on another guy like one in the SEC
(10:07):
fell apart quickly. They booted him. Like I mean, it's
a it's a tough spot. It's gonna make it even
tougher with u c l A ascending, Okay, with Oregon
taking down Ohio State and Mario Cristo Ball, he's that guy.
Why would he come to USC? Why would Kristo Ball
leave what he's building in the Oregon and come to USC?
(10:28):
Like in Oregon, Mario Cristo Ball is the guy. Right now,
you come to l A, where are the USC Trojans? Like,
I don't know, it's Lakers, It's oh the Rams are
were in the Super Bowl and they're one of the
favors to get there. The Chargers and Justin Herbert are
on the rise. The Clippers will be okay when Kauai
(10:48):
comes back. Like you've fallen way behind at USC, maybe
you can build it up to beat Carol levels. But
remember there weren't at least I don't think there were
two football team in l A when Pete Carroll was dominating.
So Chargers were in San Diego and l A was
in St. Louis. Now there's just a lot of competition
(11:08):
on the weekends in the fall, and and frankly, USC
people just need to get a grip. Okay, there is
no chances. What urban Meyer said, I think that's a
that's a safe bet. Now. Is he struggling at Jacksonville? Yeah,
but it's been like eight minutes. Can we give the
guy a break? Why are we in such a rush
to fire people? Don't we let let things breathe, Let
it hang around. Remember the great story about Seinfeld was
(11:31):
so low rated and struggled. Imagine they had dumped Seinfeld
early on in the first season. It's going down as
one of the great shows in TV history. You gotta
give these things a chance, get these coaches at least
a cycle. All right, let's get to our interview the
great Gambling NFL savant Adam Churnoff from the Simple Handicap.
(11:59):
Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes
to sports. I know what sports dance want. But for
everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's
just say, I know a guy who knows a guy.
He knows another guy. All right, let's welcome in too,
straight fire a guy who came on last year. You
guys loved his stuff. He has a great story of
(12:20):
how he got into gambling and sports, and he lives
in Canada. But he's starting to blow up here in America.
And maybe that's accurate. Maybe he's already blown up. Adam,
turn off, Adam, how are you? You say Canada like
it's so far away? In four it? Yeah, well outside Calgary,
I mean, gee, goodness great, what is it? Is it
already like three ft of snow on the ground there
or no? Uh, in the mountains we have snow, but
(12:43):
here it's it's still decent during the day, but mornings
and evenings. Uh, the old bones in my body are
starting to feel the chill. So it's it's getting worse
every year. So Adam has a great podcast, a simple handicap.
Now he's taken it two covers one of the bigger
gambling shops online, Adam, do you feel like talking about
that process, because a lot of people want to start
a pod, they don't know how to make that next
(13:05):
step from mom and pop shop too, I'm going to
join a big dog. Was that fun or difficult or
I mean, I know there's a lot of people clamoring
for your services. Now just do something that you enjoy
doing every single day and just keep publishing it. It's
don't look at the views, don't look at any of
the reaction to it from the numbers side. Just keep
(13:27):
doing it and doing it, responding to people that listen
to the show, building out a fan base. And the
way I look at it, if you start with twenty
people on a podcast because you really want to get
into the podcast, the way I sort of pictured it
because I was there, and it's like, if twenty people
showed up in your backyard at eight in the morning
and we're willing to listen to anything you have to
say for ten minutes, like that would be a pretty
(13:49):
significant thing. And then it gets it goes from twenty
to a hundred to a thousand to five thousand, like
it grows quickly and you keep that same sort of
thought in your head. And when you look at it
from that perspective and you consider how many people that
actually is if you picture them in your yard, like,
it's significant. So just keep doing it, keep creating, and
if you're good enough, then you'll end up where you
(14:09):
need to be. Yeah, I like to bring on guys
who think differently. You guys. Had you enjoyed Preston Johnson?
Uh t A was on last week? And Adam is
definitely in that boat of oh man Like I like
to listen to people who are gonna say stuff Adam
that I had not considered or thought of, you know.
So that's where the value is. You're adding value. And
your week one numbers were pretty amazing from a gambling standpoint, although, um,
(14:33):
you know you were with you. I believe on the
Patriots right Um last week, I was not on the
Patriots this week though, the different story, Well, definitely, but
you're on it. You're a Jets fan like I I
don't know you're are you know? Are you in the
four million dollar contest? Or are you not doing You're
just talking about I'm in the circum millions. Last week
(14:54):
it was it was a five and a week for
me last week. I don't like most thing records or anything.
So it's that you get because you're like, maybe this
is a quarterly prize, but you gotta go eighteen and
two or nineteen and one quarterly prizes. I think one
fifty the first and then their second. Um. Somebody sent
me a d M on Instagram that there was a
(15:15):
hundred ninety people five and oh I did not know
Adam was one of them. Um, but congratulations, I went
three and two stupid picks on the Ravens and Patriots. Um,
although the Patriots were inside the ten and fumbled it away.
I really had liked, uh, like the Patriots side. But anyways,
let's move on to week two. Adam, Um, first of all,
like you you're when you when I listen to your pod,
(15:35):
you're betting early in the week, Like you're laying money
down Sunday night Monday before the market moves. Maybe you're
influencing the market. Uh, people don't a lot of people
listening to the show. But like, and I hate me
talking about numbers that were already taken. But in terms
of like the look Everyone that was on listening to
(15:56):
the show, including myself, we're very high. I'm taking the
goes on the look Ahead, which was very early. Um,
that's obviously moved the ton. But when you're when you're
betting a game on a look aheadline or really late
Sunday night or early Monday morning, it's not taking a
ton of money to move a number half a point,
(16:17):
a point point and a half, whatever it might be,
especially on like totals. So it tends to it's the
most advantageous time to bet because you can get ahead
of numbers. But in reality, if if you have a
show with a lot of people listening to it and
people value information, and you send something out that early,
it's just a handful of people respond to it collectively.
(16:38):
It's it's going to move a number just a little
bit later in the week. That doesn't happen because the
markets are just far too efficient, and there's the limits
are way too high. Books know where they are. But
if you're sending out look aheads are really early on Sunday,
right as the openers come out, you can definitely get
ahead of some pretty big moves for sure. So let's
look at the Broncos. Jags Um Jaguars look terrible, losing
(16:59):
to that people thought could go oh in seventeen and
now they go home and host Teddy Covers. Everybody knows
the numbers. Teddy Bridgewater is zero against the spread on
the road, and it's I mean, it's incredible what he's done.
But Adam, we'll talk about a six point favorite now
on the road in Jacksonville. Back to back road games.
I'm still trying to research. I know the forty Niners
(17:20):
have two straight road games. They stayed east. They've done
that the last two years. I have not been able
to find yet if the Broncos traveled back and are
coming back for Jacksonville or they stayed out east. But
at six, like, you would not tell people, hey man,
you gotta back Teddy. It's get favored by six on
the road, right, Yeah, it's at this point the numbers
(17:41):
obviously bet into place. The one thing I'll say about
Bridgewater last week was we know him as this conservative.
Keep the ball close to the line of scrimmage, don't
make mistakes, make the right play in the safe play
when it needs to happen. Last week against the Giants,
he had an intended air yards, which shows how deep
(18:01):
the quarterbacks are throwing the football down field if it's
caught or not, so basically a little bit more advanced
in the depth of target. But he was at eight
point four yards per attempt on his attended air yards,
which is a gigantic number for Bridgewater, but a number
that was bigger than guys like Brady and Prescott and
Rogers who was playing from behind for the majority of
(18:22):
the game. Like we we just haven't seen that from Bridgewater,
and so he loses Jerry Judy for a while now.
But still that was a very different looking Teddy Bridgewater
that we saw, and it was very interesting to see
a guy who's loved anywhere he goes in the league.
But the guys on on both the defense and the
offensive veterans within that team some of the postgame stuff
(18:44):
like they absolutely love the guy and rally around them.
So very big change for the Broncos moving on from
Locke to Bridgewater. And if that deep ball is real,
then against this Jags defense, six is in play for
for a quarterback that usually anytime you see this number,
especially on the as good as he has been, just
seems too large. So Um, it's not out of it's
(19:05):
not out of the usual Bridgewater range, but it's um,
it's a big number to be laying on the road
as bad as they were great in between the twenties,
but in the red zone only two two for five,
and I was it was weird. Courtland Sutton does not
look like um And now with Judy out, you know,
I mean, I don't, I don't know. It just feels
like a big price to pay. What about silly stuff
(19:27):
like hey man, it's gonna be super hot in um
in in Jacksonville. Jacksonville should be able to run the
football against Denver. I know the Giants really couldn't, but
say Kwon Barkley, give me a break. UM, I don't know.
I almost wondered, do you consider the Jags in the
contest if there at six six and a half. I'm
not betting the Jags here. If if it gets seven,
(19:48):
that changes it. But at six I can't do it.
Like Meyer just looked so I'm prepared for the pro
level it was, but nobody really expected him to look
that bad. And the offensive line looked bad and for season,
and you sort of look at that and you wonder
how much of that's going to translate into the regular season.
It looked just as bad against the Houston Texans in
Week one, so I'm not running the bet the Jags
(20:11):
at anything. If it gets to seven, Yeah, it starts
to look different because of the value of seven, but
still it's it's just so hard to bet Jacksonville right
now based on how they look. Look, we're all adults here,
and I know some of us choose to use nicotine
to relax, focus, or just unwind after a long day.
Lucy is a modern oral nicotine company that makes nicotine gum,
lozenges and pouches for adults who are looking for the best,
(20:35):
most responsible way to consume their nicotine. It's a new year,
why not started out by switching to a new nicotine
product that you can feel good about. If you enjoy
using nicotine, you should definitely check out Lucy's products at
Lucy dot co. That's Lucy dot c oh and use
promo code fire at checkout. Also, I have to read
(20:57):
this disclaimer warning this product contains contine. Nicotine is an
addictive chemical. Remember if you are interested in a better
way to use nicotine, visit Lucy dot c o and
be sure to use that promo code fire. If you're
a sports fan, then there's really no better place to
catch all your favorite sports than Las Vegas. Every game, match, contest,
(21:18):
or competition, whoever you root for, whatever sport you love
to watch, the biggest games are played in Vegas, and
the best part is the action doesn't just start and
stop on the field. Pregame festivities, postgame celebrations. Nowhere else
comes even close. I will personally say going forward, I
would have every single Fantasy football draft I have in Vegas.
(21:41):
I'm making usually now that I live in l A
two to three Vegas trips a year, COVID pending, of course,
and frankly, I love the pool scene, like the nightlife,
but most of all, I love the gambling. And there's
an endless list of sporting events you won't want to
miss in Vegas this season. Check it all out at
visit Las Vegas dot com and then go book your
(22:01):
trip because no one does sports quite like Las Vegas,
where the excitement is endless. This episode is brought to
you by direct TV Stream, introducing direct TV Stream the
best of live TV and on demand, which means you
can get all your favorite sports movies and shows together
so you can watch new episodes of your favorite reality
shows live or binge old episodes on demand. Either way,
(22:23):
get ready for some drama and the best part, Direct
TV Stream has no annual contract. Direct TV stream Get
your TV together at direct tv dot com requires high
speed internet and compatible device. Content varies by packaging and
location restrictions. Supply. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I
(22:46):
Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.
The other line that kind of seemed to take off
was Seattle and Tennessee. Tennessee, of course, got just eviscerated
by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals and Russell Wilson. Despite
the new offensive coordinator, they came out and just crushed
the Colts. I mean that was that felt like the
easiest win of the weekend for me. Seattle just rolling. Um.
(23:08):
I don't know though, Tennessee at six feels like a
good number. I mean again, this is not a Seattle
defense that came in touted whatsoever. Um, And you gotta
think Tennessee has bounced back in them, right, unless you're
totally off on this new oc with this group of
players for the Titans, Tannehill, Henry Um, the whole crew.
This is the biggest number that an opponent has laid
(23:30):
against them that isn't the Kansas City Chiefs, and that
was the seven and a half point spread in Kansas
City in the playoffs. So this for the Titans with
this group of players is uncharted territory in terms of
a point spread being laid against them. So this is
a number that's going to move back. It opened three
and a half, it got the six. It is not
(23:50):
going to close at six. It is going to go
back the other way. And a lot of that's fueled by,
like you just mentioned, it was week one. Everybody overreacts
the week one the Seahawks look terrific, really dominated the
game start to finish against the Colts, and then the
Titans had That's as bad as we've seen the Titans
play with this group of players under Mike Rabel. You
just you don't see that from them to that level,
(24:13):
and so you get that, you get the contrasting results there.
It's the natural overreaction. But now it's six. From a
price perspective, it's just way too large. And this Seahawks
defense it is not good. That don't don't let anything
for you. This is a very bad unit. In coverage.
Jamal Adams makes headlines. He's he's terrible in coverage. He's
a phenomenal blitz. So you get them near the line
(24:33):
of scrimmage, it's dangerous. But this number way too big.
So Tennessee at six is definitely a bedroom. If you
said overreaction, I mean, and there are a lot of
them out there, the Tampa Bay Atlanta line, Like how
do you not overreacting as you personally at them? Uh?
Like when you evaluate some of these teams, like, yes,
Seattle looked really good, but I don't know, maybe the
(24:54):
Colts just aren't very good this year, maybe they are
below five D team. And then you see the Seahawks
Colts line and like, sorry, Rams Colts this week, and
you're like, why aren't the Rams favored by more? Um?
I don't know, It's just it's really difficult to not overreact.
Um initially at least now this is we're still early
in the week. You know, by Saturday, I think that'll
have worn off. But I don't know, man, can you
(25:16):
talk me out of betting on, say, the Rams on
the road against the Colts, because I really, I know
a lot of people are gonna take the Colts the
way they struggled defensively against that fast Seattle offense. The
Rams have just as fast as an offense. What So
I'll put it to you this way, were you hire
on the Rams of the Seahawks coming into the season,
I was. I had the Sea the Seahawks below the Rams. Okay,
(25:39):
So was it by a significant margin? I mean I was.
I consider essentially the Rams the second best team in
the NFC, coming in ahead of the Packers. Okay. So
if we're looking at this price, the Seahawks were a
very expensive two and a half or three flat minus
one ten against the Indianapolis Colts in in Now the
(26:01):
Rams are a four point favorite against the Colts in India.
So it's the same venue, but we see a different
price here with a lower total. So any time that
the total is lower the Seahawks and Colds were at fifty,
this is at forty seven, the point spread becomes a
little bit more value per point. So when it when
(26:22):
it comes to looking at this the Rams at minus
four compared to the Seahawks at minus three. It reads
like one point, but the value of three in the
NFL is more important than any other number, So even
though it's just one point higher, it's a very important
one point higher with a slightly lower total. So we're
really seeing if you think the Rams were better than
(26:44):
the Seahawks coming into the season based off Week one,
maybe you think a little bit higher about Seattle in general,
But we're seeing a RAMS line here at minus four
with the shorter total against the same opponent, really reflecting
what you just said, what the wind total markets that
were up for five months reflected. It's really just a
price that comes from that preseason market and how we
(27:06):
sort of all thought about these teams coming into the season.
So it's not a significant difference, and I don't think
it's too high or too low. I think as we're
seeing now, is this number states steady much of the week.
It's just a price that we're sort of expected to
see what the shorter totals. So that's that's how we
get to this number right now. It's it's not a
not a huge difference one way or the other. What
about the RAMS coverings on Sunday Night Football one of
(27:28):
the games that everybody watches. The public's all over the Rams,
do you. I mean, I'm assuming the public is probably
going to come in on the Rams again here at
I don't know a percent or anything like that. I mean,
maybe that doesn't matter to you, not necessarily, because what
the public lines up on one side or the other
is not ultimately going to dictate how much the number
(27:49):
moves one way or the other. Necessarily, it's going to
have a slight impact. But um, if it disagrees with
the numbers that I have, it's not something I'm looking
one way or the other. If I could say anything
about what I saw Sunday night, was this Rams defensive front,
which is lauded and this number one defense from a
season ago, and all of that nonsense because they benefited
(28:11):
from such an easy schedule. But the Chicago ran at
Hill against the Rams defensive front the five point two
yards per rush um. They didn't have a drive to
Chicago Bears that ended on their side of midfield the
entire game. So the Rams were giving Andy Dalton and
this very weak Bears offense a lot of opportunity to
(28:33):
move the football. The Bears didn't ultimately do anything with it.
But um, I had huge concerns about the Rams and
their defense coming into the season just because of how
they looked last year against a very easy schedule that
benefited them a ton. Um not necessarily going to be
backing one side of the other in this game, but
I think the numbers fair. Um, what about the uh
(28:54):
the Bengals game. It looks like today as we're recording
this here on on Wednesday, the Bengals have crossed through
three and now there's I guess just I'm assuming that's
professional money on Cincinnati. Maybe there was a release that
you like to talk about on your pod, but this
was I think I believe it open to four Bengals
at Bears and now it's down to two. Any thoughts there, Yeah,
(29:15):
it's been a ton of professional money. Um, multiple releases.
And when when we say the word release, it's either
a group that is moving on a side that bets
it themselves and then where it gets out and other
people follow, or places that operate as a service where
they have a number of followers who bet at many
different sports books and they collectively bet a game at
(29:37):
the same time it becomes public and people follow on
and so We've seen a case of both sides here
where it's professional money. There has been a released on
the Bengals, and when you see a line move from
a four down all the way to a one for
a road team, it's a significant jump. We're talking about
Taylor at them. Yeah, it's but it's beyond Zach Taylor,
(30:01):
like it's it's Joe Burrow. It's that offense, and there's
belief that, like they can put together a pretty decent
team in a pretty decent season. And you think about
that game against the Vikings. How you get to the
final score is to me more important than what the
final score was. And it was a game where the
Bengals got out to a lead very early, held control
(30:22):
of the game. Vikings come back late. But I was
much more impressed with the Bengals than I was um
the Vikings in that game. And so you take that away,
you get the the Bengals winning. You have the Bears
losing on Sunday night football. As as productive as they
might have been on offense, still, it was a lot
of people watching the Bears lose, a lot of people
(30:42):
watching the Bengals win. It's the Week two. It's over reaction,
and here we are with with a pretty significant move
supported by professional money on the Bengals. Yeah, I think
what's what makes me nervous about the Bears? Do you
remember they ran the kickbacks and they're about to score
and then Dalton, you know, tip pass intercepted the end zone.
If that, if that's a touchdown for the Bears, that
(31:02):
game changes dramatically. You remember the Bears were still in it,
I believe into the third quarter, right, Yeah, and they were,
and then there was a couple of big touchdowns and
the cup reception and I flipped it. But us, like
the Bears, despite what the scoreboard says, we're moving the
football against that Rams defense that sort of gets disregarded.
And the Rams defenses, as to many concerns as I
(31:23):
have with it, uh much better than his Cincinnati Bengals defense.
So we'll see what happens with this number. But certainly
difficult to oppose that much professional money coming in on
the Bengals. Adoption of teams from foster care is a
topic not enough people know about, and we're here to
change that. I'm April Denuity, host of the new podcast
Navigating Adoption, presented by Adopt us Kids. Each episode brings
(31:47):
you compelling, real life adoption stories told by the families
that lived them, with commentary from experts. Visit adopt us
Kids dot org, slash podcast, or subscribed to Navigating Adoption,
presented by adopt us Kids, brought to you by the U.
S Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children
and Families, and the AD Council. What grows in the
forest trees, Sure you know what else grows in the forest.
(32:11):
Our imagination, our sense of wonder, and our family bonds
grow too, because when we disconnect from this and connect
with this, we reconnect with each other. The forest is
closer than you think. Find a forest near you and
start exploring. I Discover the Forest dot org. Brought to
(32:31):
you by the United States Forest Service and the AD Council.
If I could be you and you could be me
for just what hour? If you could find a way
to get inside each other's mind, walk a mile in
my shoes, Waco mile in my shoes shoes. We've all
felt left out, and for some that feeling lasts more
(32:53):
than a moment. We can change that. Learn how it
belonging begins with us dot org brought to you by
the ad count Welcome out, and Fox Sports Radio has
the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all
of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and
(33:13):
within the I Heart Radio app search f s R
to listen live. I guess we could wrap up with this,
you know, this Thursday night football, like there are fans
back in the stadiums uh that that was not the
case last year. And um, I just I don't know
how much of a home field advantager is here on
a Thursday night game. Usually these are sloppy. And now
you've got a divisional matchup Washington Giants. I kind of
(33:37):
want to take just a little action play on Danny Dimes. Um,
I don't know. Watching them against the Broncos though, it's
just a tough team to back. Yeah, but like that
Broncos defense and that secondary specifically, it's terrific. Washington their
defense nothing to sneeze about either. But they were again
similar to the Rams, a team I think we think
(33:58):
highly of because of their defense. But it was a
team that benefited from a very easy schedule last season.
So we saw what they looked like against the Chargers.
Letting that team walk all around the field a big
step back to the to the Giants, but this is
a game that will get to a flat field goal.
We've seen this number move just a little bit. It
was four, it's now three and a half. Division game
(34:18):
was such a short total. It's just a spot that
will naturally close at three. UH downgrades for the quarterback
situation in Washington, we've seen that reflected a little bit
within the market, but that's going to continue. UM, I
wouldn't be running about Washington in this spot, but i'd
probably lean to your side with the Giants. But it's
a game I haven't met one way or the other,
but a number I think we see come down just
(34:40):
a little bit more. I meant I only briefly mentioned COVID.
Are you remember last year when you came on, there
was kind of a wait and see. Firing early in
the week could be risky given COVID UH, and we
saw the Saints. I think they had like six or
seven or eight coaches who are vaccinated but have to
be in COVID protocol. So, for instance, they won't be
at practice this week. I guess they'll have zoom in
(35:01):
and then jump in late in the week. Is that
impacting any of how you look at things so far
this season. Honestly, last season, aside from the Broncos Saints game,
which I got lucky on, I never really had a
spot where any of the COVID news impacted any of
the bets I made. Maybe that was me getting lucky,
I don't know, but I'm I didn't really get too
(35:23):
far into it last season, and this year a very
little effort on my side to try to sort of
look into that or determine it. If it gets to
keep players, then obviously it'll matter, but it's it's now.
It seems like the protocol is different for every single
team at this I just I can't keep up with
it and I'm focused elsewhere. UM. I'll leave you with
one bet that I had made earlier this As soon
(35:44):
as the Raiders won that lucky game on Monday night,
I knew I was going to be on the Steelers.
Gruden flying East hates travel huge high profile win on
Monday Night. Even though the Steelers are coming off the
win over the Bills, it just screams like a bad matchup.
I don't know if you've seen some of the Raiders injuries, um,
but in the contest, I think that's probably unless it's seven,
(36:08):
probably gonna be my number one pick the Steelers. Do
you have any thoughts on Pittsburgh and and Vegas? The
tricky part is trying to determine how much of this
stuff has already priced into the line, And so from
the look ahead side, this was Steelers at six after
the Raiders won, and it reopened Tuesday morning, it was
at five and a half. It's still there, but like
(36:30):
you mentioned, it's the Raiders off a huge win in
the stadium with fans for the first time in overtime,
flying east for an early start. Gruden doesn't like flying.
You're going from an indoor team to an outdoor team
in hines Field, a significant step up in class of
opposing defense. Like, there's so many different situations here historically
(36:51):
that work against the Raiders, but a lot of them
are just so widely talked about that you wonder how
much has this factored into the price the Steelers. Last
week we're six point underdogs against the Bills. They're now
six point favorites against the Raiders. Is the gap between
the Raiders and the Bills ten to twelve points? Well? Well, no, wait,
(37:12):
hold on, now, if you had asked me that before
week one it ten might have been a little stretched,
but it probably would have been close to seven. Right
the Bills were weren't they your number two or three
power rated team? They are? But and so that's kind
of what I'm getting at here, is so like like
if it's seven or eight, right, which sounds reasonable, we're
now at an adjustment if we're looking for between where
(37:33):
they were last week and this week, it's out of ten.
We're just talking about how bad the situation is. Is
this number actually inflated because of the situation making that
gap between the teams look bigger already accounting for that
with all of that information priced in, or are we
as better as undervaluing all of that situation and showing
(37:54):
that there might be value here with the Steelers. But
it's always tough to tell with these in the game
where there's so many of these narrative in these situations
based um things that are sort of right around the
game and very widely discussed, like how much of that
is priced in and how much isn't because it's not
like the bookmakers and people with influence within the betting
(38:15):
market don't know about these situations. Yeah, I mean, everybody
has basically the same information, right, but I see something
and again I'm sure this is biked in, But Adam,
you saw the Bills. I think they had six holding
penalties on the offensive line struggling to block Pittsburgh. The
Raiders offensive line just got annihilated by the Ravens on
the blitz and they had I believe two guys injured
(38:36):
coming out of it. We don't know if Incognito is
coming back this week. That doesn't that feel like such
a mismatch in the trenches that I know that they
know that in Vegas. But they're not moving the line
at all, are they not. It's a huge mismatch. But again,
it's the Steelers laying six points. That's favorite. Yeah, that's
a big night. It looks that looks a lot different
(38:56):
than going into Buffalo is a six point TC. Like
I say, it's it's a huge shift for sure. Yeah,
all right, Adam turn off. You gotta listen to his
podcast every day every morning. It's really good, Uh, the
Simple Handicap And then where else can they find your stuff?
At him? Just on The Simple Handicap, Apple, Spotify and
then on Twitter at Adam Try Yeah, he's he's good.
(39:16):
He's Canadian. Um, listen, enjoy the winter up there, Adam.
I'm sure I'll badger you over text for uh. By
the way, do you do any college football betting at all?
Or no? Just NFL? No, it's so tough to follow it,
just with everything I have going on. But then also
being a country a mooved like you said, Canada so
far away that there is truth to that. In the
TV coverage for college is not nearly as good. So
(39:39):
um not a not a college football gun. So yeah,
all right, dude, have a good one, thanks very much.
Talk the only thing better than sitting on your couch
watching the gag. He's making money while you're do it.
Here's your best bet. Great stuff from turn Off. Really
like his work. He's he's a sharp guy. He's worked
(40:01):
on both sides of the counter. You always gotta love that, um,
And now it's time for the best bet. I I
can't talk myself out of the giants here. If you
can get a three and a half, I think you
gotta take it right. Washington has no home field advantage.
That stadium is always empty or quiet. Um, it's just
that there's no disadvantage for the Giants traveling right down. Um,
(40:23):
you know it's a must wean obviously for both teams.
But I have a funny stat so Fox, because we
do a lot of gambling content, they have researchers dig
up some numbers. This is mind blowing. Danny Dimes is
a pretty bad quarterback. We can all agree. Turnover machine. However,
according to Fox research, in four career starts against Washington somehow,
(40:46):
Danny Dimes is four no, completing sixty of his passes,
eight t d s, three interceptions. So four now against
Washington in his career. In twenty three other starts against
everyone some league, he's four and nineteen. A turnover machine
he for whatever, Maybe he gets Washington's defense. I don't know. Um,
(41:10):
I kind of like the Giants here getting getting three
and a half in adividual matchup when us when when
the totals forty and a half? You heard turn Off
talk about that low total. It's gonna be a close game.
Feels like a field goal game game either way. I
will have a personal rooting interest, uh in Terry McLaurin,
obviously for fantasy purposes. Not a great spot for McLaurin
playing with m Taylor Heinekey and I joked that Taylor
(41:32):
Heinnekey was reminded me of Matt Saracen a k a
QB one from Friday Night Lights. Taylor Heneck in that
playoff game basically would drop back. He's like small, so
he was struggling in the pocket and he would just
dart around and like make some kind of crazy plays
and they would happen and it was interesting. Um, you know,
can Taylor Heineck get it done against a Giant's defense.
(41:54):
It's kind of good, but got shredded by Teddy Bridgewater. Um,
I have no faith whatsoever in Heineke. I'm taking the
Giants getting three and a half. Alright, guys, we'll be
back tomorrow NFL Picks and college Football, big, big weekend
in sports. You'll love to see it. We'll talk to you.
Then get right to the romance and find the way
to wow this Valentine's with one d Flowers dot Com.
(42:16):
From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate covered berries,
gourmet treats and more. Surprise your Valentine with Flowers dot
Com right now. Get the eighteen stem enchanted rose Medley
for or upgrade to red Roses for ten dollars. More,
go to one hundred flowers dot com slash tune in.
(42:37):
That's one flowers dot com slash tune in.
The moment we've been waiting for since September is finally here.
In honor of the big game, Draft Kings sports Book,
an official betting partner of Super Bowl fifty six, is
giving new customers fifty six to one odds on either team.
That just five dollars and get two hundred and eighty
in free bets if your team wins. Download the Draft
Kings sports Book app, use promo code straight Fire and
(00:21):
get fifty six to one odds on either team. I
told you guys to get about last week, I said Rayams,
I like chiefs. I hope you're cleaned up. That just
five dollars and get two hundred and eighty in free
bets if your team wins. That's promo code straight Fire
at Draft Kings sports Book, an official sports betting partners.
Super Bowl fifty six must be twenty one year older.
(00:41):
Is the minimum age and location requirements vary by jurisdiction.
See Draft Kings dot com slash sports Book for full
list of requirements and state specific responsible gaming resources. Void
were prohibited gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler In Tennessee,
call or text the t N Red Line eight nine
(01:02):
nine seven eight nine. In Connecticut call seven eight nine
seven seven seven seven, or visits CCPG dot org slash chat.
In New York call eight seven seven eight Hope and Why,
or text Hope and Why four six seven three six nine.
Welcome back to the third Annual Poker Showdown. Wait this
(01:25):
just in. Our top contender is getting a haircut, not
just any haircut, Supercuts and he's back. I checked it
on the app. Super Cuts always gets me in and out.
It's not just any haircut, it's super Cuts camera crew.
The badger is just beyond this brush, Reddy Tyler. Tyler
is getting a haircut. Badges specialist is getting a haircut now,
not just any haircuts, Supercuts and he's back. There's the
(01:48):
Supercuts right around the corner. And I walked in and
there was no wait. It's such just any haircut, it's
super Cuts. A straight Fire with Jason McIntire. What is up?
Straight Fire, Fam, It's me Jason McIntire, Straight Fire. Thursday,
(02:10):
September six. Got to start the pod with a shout
out to my old man, Pops turns eighty today. Happy birthday, Dad.
You're probably not listening to this, but making a good
one In sunny Florida. Uh. Actually, the sports world today
has a ton of sports news happening, big and not
always great news. Um, we're gonna get to usc which
we've glossed over on Monday before the Clayhelton firing. Um,
(02:34):
we'll do a little bit Dallas Cowboys in a secon.
But poor Cowboys. Bring on Adam churn Off. You guys
remember him from last year. Ps. He is in the
four million dollar contest, the one that I went three
and two in he went five and oh um, so
he will shed some insights on this week what he's
looking at his process. You guys are gonna love the interview.
So picks for the weekend, and then I'll wrap up
(02:55):
with a best bet for tonight's giants Washington. Um, battle
of awful quarterbacks should be a slop fest, But I
have to start with the Dallas Cowboys. I mean, goodness, gracious,
can they get any more unlucky? The defense is a joke,
can't stop anybody, and they now lose their best defender,
de Marcus Lawrence out six to eight weeks. Holy hell,
(03:17):
have you looked at who they're gonna throw at the Chargers, who,
by the way, have an incredible offensive line. Now after
they stole the Packers center and UH draft traded up
to draft the kid from Northwestern the Dallas Cowboys with
DeMarcus Lawrence on the shelf. With Randy Gregory likely out
this week, they're gonna start a former Jet Terrell bosh
(03:39):
Um at one end. The other end perhaps somebody named
Doris Dorrence Armstrong and never heard of him. First time
I've ever seen his name in my life. Two eighteen
fourth round pick out of Kansas um And on the
inside they're beat up there too, Carlos Watkins and a
kid from U c. L A who I'm not going
to try to pronounce. Uh, folks, this is a gruesome
(04:01):
front four. And we already know that dan Quinn's defense
is not good. At the opener, Tampa Bay mode up
and down the field against him. They made the mistake
in the off season of drafting a linebacker, picking up
Keyan O'Neil, who was a safety, and they said they're
gonna play him at linebacker. I'm just telling this Dallas
defense is a mess. All that being said, they're gonna
(04:21):
still win the division. Sorry to my Washington football team fans. Um. Yes,
the Eagles look scary. Um, Washington will be okay with
the defense, but they're already down to their backup quarterback
Taylor Heineke, who at least he's gonna play for six weeks.
And then you've got the Giants who played at night
and whold my goodness are they in trouble? Um? The
division is that bad. And I think DA's offense is
(04:44):
that impressive, even without Michael Gallup, yes, he is on
the shelf, even without Lyle Collins who is suspended. Um,
I know it, just it doesn't look good for the Cowboys.
But I'm just telling you, as long as Doc is healthy,
Dallas is still winning that division. They the most talented offense.
Offense matters more than defense, and as long as Doak
(05:05):
is standing upright, I expect the Cowboys to win this division.
I don't know if it's with eight wins, with nine,
maybe ten. Um. Obviously, it would not be ideal to
start the season down oh and two heading into Week three,
a big one against Philly on Monday Night Football. Then
it loosens up a little bit. Carolina, New York Giants
Patriots are tough than the bye week. If they can
(05:26):
get to the bye week three and three. That would
be a huge win. I don't know about the Chargers game.
By the way, I just got an invite to check
out so far four Chargers Cowboys. Um, I don't know
if I'm going yet. Uh, I kinda would like to.
I haven't been to a game at so far, although
I did do a walk through with the stadium when
it was getting built. Looks amazing. Um, Chargers Cowboys is
(05:48):
all of a sudden, just such a huge game. I
mean every game feels huge. We talked about this yesterday, like,
there's only seventeen games. You don't want to fall in
an O two hole. Dallas if they fall out two
and Phil they somehow beat San Franz. Dallas is now
two games back of the Eagles, and they play the
Eagles in Week three and you lose that, you know,
(06:09):
overcoming a three game deficit to win the division. Good
luck with that, Dallas Cowboys. They're up against it quickly.
On college football, Uh, it's so funny. We talked about
Clay Hilton in USC on Monday's pod, Like five hours
after the pod drop, they fired Clay Hilton. And if
you go back and listen, the name I had heard
was Byron Leftwich. Since then, a bunch of names have
(06:30):
been floated. Everybody wants to talk urban Meyer. Oh we
can get urban Meyer. He's gonna come out here. Um,
let's just remember urban Meyer was coming out the Fox
for uh it was doing the studio shows last year. Okay,
I'm not getting into the business of how it, how
he liked it, did he like l a? Would he
move here? All that? All I can say is unequivocally,
(06:53):
it's not happening. He's not coming out here to USC.
You guys can dream about it. By in the sky.
They can sell them hard. It would be Buster Douglas
over Mike Tyson if urban Meyer came to USC. That's
how much of a long shot we're talking about. This
guy's old. You think he wants to move across the
country with his family at this stage in his career.
It's just not happening. He's a small town guy. He's
(07:15):
not enough. I would say zero point zero percent chance.
Obviously want to say never, say never. Maybe they throw
all the money in the world at him, but I
would say, unequivocally, it's not happening. They need to set
their sights on more realistic names. Now the name that
keeps coming up is Luke Fickle, who's at Cincinnati, and
by the way, Cincinnati is going to be one of
my best bets for college football this weekend. The problem
(07:37):
with Luke Fickle, anybody you talk to like he's in
that Ohio State mindset where he wants to control everything
and folks, USC is one of these weird programs where
the boosters have a lot of say ah, and I
shouldn't say weird because that's how it goes in a
lot of places. But the USC boosters have a ton
of say and this whole like, oh, we can bring
(07:58):
back the Pete Carol era like that what was then? Error?
That's just not happening again. Have you seen what's happened
since then? Lame Kiffin experiment totally blew up in their face.
Then they passed on Ogeron, who ended up winning a title,
but that's understandable, and they land on Sark, he has
his personal demons. Then I don't really know how they
(08:19):
fell into Clay Helton. He salvaged the season when Sark
left and got kind of like a hey, let's let's
have Clay Helton just stay on. He's a good guy,
and the boosters can kind of run the scenes, run
the show behind the scenes. And Clay went ten in three,
eleven and three with Sarks guys, and then what Happensen
disaster disaster? It was good, but come on, it was
(08:41):
a COVID shortened season. And now you lose to Stanford
when you're favored by a million. That was an ugly loss.
I just think the more realistic names are guys along
the lines of a Byron Leftwich, a player coach, who's
a young guy who's worked with Tom Brady. Uh, want
a Super Bowl again. He's not a USC guy. But
(09:03):
sometimes this idea of oh, we need to keep it
in the family. We we gotta get a USC like that.
Remember the Lakers tried that. Like that doesn't always work.
Running your business like a mom and pop shop doesn't
always work. Just keep it in the family, like sometimes
it's best to just go outside the family. Find somebody
who really, really will be a good fit at USC. UM.
(09:26):
Some of the other names that are that are out
there are legitimately comical. Um urban Meyer was so perturbed
he actually open to press conference on Wednesday with no,
I'm not going there, There's no chance, No shot. It's
just not happening. Um, I just people need to stop
(09:46):
talking about that now. James Franklin of Penn State is
a super popular name. Um another guy who's kind of
a control freak. But listen, a lot of these coaches are.
Franklin has done some great things at Penn State. I
think he's attainable. Could they get Tom Herman? Sure? Will
they want Tom Herman after what happened in Texas? Probably not? Um,
Gus Small's on another guy like one in the SEC
(10:07):
fell apart quickly. They booted him. Like I mean, it's
a it's a tough spot. It's gonna make it even
tougher with u c l A ascending, Okay, with Oregon
taking down Ohio State and Mario Cristo Ball, he's that guy.
Why would he come to USC? Why would Kristo Ball
leave what he's building in the Oregon and come to USC?
(10:28):
Like in Oregon, Mario Cristo Ball is the guy. Right now,
you come to l A, where are the USC Trojans? Like,
I don't know, it's Lakers, It's oh the Rams are
were in the Super Bowl and they're one of the
favors to get there. The Chargers and Justin Herbert are
on the rise. The Clippers will be okay when Kauai
(10:48):
comes back. Like you've fallen way behind at USC, maybe
you can build it up to beat Carol levels. But
remember there weren't at least I don't think there were
two football team in l A when Pete Carroll was dominating.
So Chargers were in San Diego and l A was
in St. Louis. Now there's just a lot of competition
(11:08):
on the weekends in the fall, and and frankly, USC
people just need to get a grip. Okay, there is
no chances. What urban Meyer said, I think that's a
that's a safe bet. Now. Is he struggling at Jacksonville? Yeah,
but it's been like eight minutes. Can we give the
guy a break? Why are we in such a rush
to fire people? Don't we let let things breathe, Let
it hang around. Remember the great story about Seinfeld was
(11:31):
so low rated and struggled. Imagine they had dumped Seinfeld
early on in the first season. It's going down as
one of the great shows in TV history. You gotta
give these things a chance, get these coaches at least
a cycle. All right, let's get to our interview the
great Gambling NFL savant Adam Churnoff from the Simple Handicap.
(11:59):
Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes
to sports. I know what sports dance want. But for
everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's
just say, I know a guy who knows a guy.
He knows another guy. All right, let's welcome in too,
straight fire a guy who came on last year. You
guys loved his stuff. He has a great story of
(12:20):
how he got into gambling and sports, and he lives
in Canada. But he's starting to blow up here in America.
And maybe that's accurate. Maybe he's already blown up. Adam,
turn off, Adam, how are you? You say Canada like
it's so far away? In four it? Yeah, well outside Calgary,
I mean, gee, goodness great, what is it? Is it
already like three ft of snow on the ground there
or no? Uh, in the mountains we have snow, but
(12:43):
here it's it's still decent during the day, but mornings
and evenings. Uh, the old bones in my body are
starting to feel the chill. So it's it's getting worse
every year. So Adam has a great podcast, a simple handicap.
Now he's taken it two covers one of the bigger
gambling shops online, Adam, do you feel like talking about
that process, because a lot of people want to start
a pod, they don't know how to make that next
(13:05):
step from mom and pop shop too, I'm going to
join a big dog. Was that fun or difficult or
I mean, I know there's a lot of people clamoring
for your services. Now just do something that you enjoy
doing every single day and just keep publishing it. It's
don't look at the views, don't look at any of
the reaction to it from the numbers side. Just keep
(13:27):
doing it and doing it, responding to people that listen
to the show, building out a fan base. And the
way I look at it, if you start with twenty
people on a podcast because you really want to get
into the podcast, the way I sort of pictured it
because I was there, and it's like, if twenty people
showed up in your backyard at eight in the morning
and we're willing to listen to anything you have to
say for ten minutes, like that would be a pretty
(13:49):
significant thing. And then it gets it goes from twenty
to a hundred to a thousand to five thousand, like
it grows quickly and you keep that same sort of
thought in your head. And when you look at it
from that perspective and you consider how many people that
actually is if you picture them in your yard, like,
it's significant. So just keep doing it, keep creating, and
if you're good enough, then you'll end up where you
(14:09):
need to be. Yeah, I like to bring on guys
who think differently. You guys. Had you enjoyed Preston Johnson?
Uh t A was on last week? And Adam is
definitely in that boat of oh man Like I like
to listen to people who are gonna say stuff Adam
that I had not considered or thought of, you know.
So that's where the value is. You're adding value. And
your week one numbers were pretty amazing from a gambling standpoint, although, um,
(14:33):
you know you were with you. I believe on the
Patriots right Um last week, I was not on the
Patriots this week though, the different story, Well, definitely, but
you're on it. You're a Jets fan like I I
don't know you're are you know? Are you in the
four million dollar contest? Or are you not doing You're
just talking about I'm in the circum millions. Last week
(14:54):
it was it was a five and a week for
me last week. I don't like most thing records or anything.
So it's that you get because you're like, maybe this
is a quarterly prize, but you gotta go eighteen and
two or nineteen and one quarterly prizes. I think one
fifty the first and then their second. Um. Somebody sent
me a d M on Instagram that there was a
(15:15):
hundred ninety people five and oh I did not know
Adam was one of them. Um, but congratulations, I went
three and two stupid picks on the Ravens and Patriots. Um,
although the Patriots were inside the ten and fumbled it away.
I really had liked, uh, like the Patriots side. But anyways,
let's move on to week two. Adam, Um, first of all,
like you you're when you when I listen to your pod,
(15:35):
you're betting early in the week, Like you're laying money
down Sunday night Monday before the market moves. Maybe you're
influencing the market. Uh, people don't a lot of people
listening to the show. But like, and I hate me
talking about numbers that were already taken. But in terms
of like the look Everyone that was on listening to
(15:56):
the show, including myself, we're very high. I'm taking the
goes on the look Ahead, which was very early. Um,
that's obviously moved the ton. But when you're when you're
betting a game on a look aheadline or really late
Sunday night or early Monday morning, it's not taking a
ton of money to move a number half a point,
(16:17):
a point point and a half, whatever it might be,
especially on like totals. So it tends to it's the
most advantageous time to bet because you can get ahead
of numbers. But in reality, if if you have a
show with a lot of people listening to it and
people value information, and you send something out that early,
it's just a handful of people respond to it collectively.
(16:38):
It's it's going to move a number just a little
bit later in the week. That doesn't happen because the
markets are just far too efficient, and there's the limits
are way too high. Books know where they are. But
if you're sending out look aheads are really early on Sunday,
right as the openers come out, you can definitely get
ahead of some pretty big moves for sure. So let's
look at the Broncos. Jags Um Jaguars look terrible, losing
(16:59):
to that people thought could go oh in seventeen and
now they go home and host Teddy Covers. Everybody knows
the numbers. Teddy Bridgewater is zero against the spread on
the road, and it's I mean, it's incredible what he's done.
But Adam, we'll talk about a six point favorite now
on the road in Jacksonville. Back to back road games.
I'm still trying to research. I know the forty Niners
(17:20):
have two straight road games. They stayed east. They've done
that the last two years. I have not been able
to find yet if the Broncos traveled back and are
coming back for Jacksonville or they stayed out east. But
at six, like, you would not tell people, hey man,
you gotta back Teddy. It's get favored by six on
the road, right, Yeah, it's at this point the numbers
(17:41):
obviously bet into place. The one thing I'll say about
Bridgewater last week was we know him as this conservative.
Keep the ball close to the line of scrimmage, don't
make mistakes, make the right play in the safe play
when it needs to happen. Last week against the Giants,
he had an intended air yards, which shows how deep
(18:01):
the quarterbacks are throwing the football down field if it's
caught or not, so basically a little bit more advanced
in the depth of target. But he was at eight
point four yards per attempt on his attended air yards,
which is a gigantic number for Bridgewater, but a number
that was bigger than guys like Brady and Prescott and
Rogers who was playing from behind for the majority of
(18:22):
the game. Like we we just haven't seen that from Bridgewater,
and so he loses Jerry Judy for a while now.
But still that was a very different looking Teddy Bridgewater
that we saw, and it was very interesting to see
a guy who's loved anywhere he goes in the league.
But the guys on on both the defense and the
offensive veterans within that team some of the postgame stuff
(18:44):
like they absolutely love the guy and rally around them.
So very big change for the Broncos moving on from
Locke to Bridgewater. And if that deep ball is real,
then against this Jags defense, six is in play for
for a quarterback that usually anytime you see this number,
especially on the as good as he has been, just
seems too large. So Um, it's not out of it's
(19:05):
not out of the usual Bridgewater range, but it's um,
it's a big number to be laying on the road
as bad as they were great in between the twenties,
but in the red zone only two two for five,
and I was it was weird. Courtland Sutton does not
look like um And now with Judy out, you know,
I mean, I don't, I don't know. It just feels
like a big price to pay. What about silly stuff
(19:27):
like hey man, it's gonna be super hot in um
in in Jacksonville. Jacksonville should be able to run the
football against Denver. I know the Giants really couldn't, but
say Kwon Barkley, give me a break. UM, I don't know.
I almost wondered, do you consider the Jags in the
contest if there at six six and a half. I'm
not betting the Jags here. If if it gets seven,
(19:48):
that changes it. But at six I can't do it.
Like Meyer just looked so I'm prepared for the pro
level it was, but nobody really expected him to look
that bad. And the offensive line looked bad and for season,
and you sort of look at that and you wonder
how much of that's going to translate into the regular season.
It looked just as bad against the Houston Texans in
Week one, so I'm not running the bet the Jags
(20:11):
at anything. If it gets to seven, Yeah, it starts
to look different because of the value of seven, but
still it's it's just so hard to bet Jacksonville right
now based on how they look. Look, we're all adults here,
and I know some of us choose to use nicotine
to relax, focus, or just unwind after a long day.
Lucy is a modern oral nicotine company that makes nicotine gum,
lozenges and pouches for adults who are looking for the best,
(20:35):
most responsible way to consume their nicotine. It's a new year,
why not started out by switching to a new nicotine
product that you can feel good about. If you enjoy
using nicotine, you should definitely check out Lucy's products at
Lucy dot co. That's Lucy dot c oh and use
promo code fire at checkout. Also, I have to read
(20:57):
this disclaimer warning this product contains contine. Nicotine is an
addictive chemical. Remember if you are interested in a better
way to use nicotine, visit Lucy dot c o and
be sure to use that promo code fire. If you're
a sports fan, then there's really no better place to
catch all your favorite sports than Las Vegas. Every game, match, contest,
(21:18):
or competition, whoever you root for, whatever sport you love
to watch, the biggest games are played in Vegas, and
the best part is the action doesn't just start and
stop on the field. Pregame festivities, postgame celebrations. Nowhere else
comes even close. I will personally say going forward, I
would have every single Fantasy football draft I have in Vegas.
(21:41):
I'm making usually now that I live in l A
two to three Vegas trips a year, COVID pending, of course,
and frankly, I love the pool scene, like the nightlife,
but most of all, I love the gambling. And there's
an endless list of sporting events you won't want to
miss in Vegas this season. Check it all out at
visit Las Vegas dot com and then go book your
(22:01):
trip because no one does sports quite like Las Vegas,
where the excitement is endless. This episode is brought to
you by direct TV Stream, introducing direct TV Stream the
best of live TV and on demand, which means you
can get all your favorite sports movies and shows together
so you can watch new episodes of your favorite reality
shows live or binge old episodes on demand. Either way,
(22:23):
get ready for some drama and the best part, Direct
TV Stream has no annual contract. Direct TV stream Get
your TV together at direct tv dot com requires high
speed internet and compatible device. Content varies by packaging and
location restrictions. Supply. Fox Sports Radio has the best sports
talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our shows
at Fox Sports Radio dot com and within the I
(22:46):
Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.
The other line that kind of seemed to take off
was Seattle and Tennessee. Tennessee, of course, got just eviscerated
by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals and Russell Wilson. Despite
the new offensive coordinator, they came out and just crushed
the Colts. I mean that was that felt like the
easiest win of the weekend for me. Seattle just rolling. Um.
(23:08):
I don't know though, Tennessee at six feels like a
good number. I mean again, this is not a Seattle
defense that came in touted whatsoever. Um, And you gotta
think Tennessee has bounced back in them, right, unless you're
totally off on this new oc with this group of
players for the Titans, Tannehill, Henry Um, the whole crew.
This is the biggest number that an opponent has laid
(23:30):
against them that isn't the Kansas City Chiefs, and that
was the seven and a half point spread in Kansas
City in the playoffs. So this for the Titans with
this group of players is uncharted territory in terms of
a point spread being laid against them. So this is
a number that's going to move back. It opened three
and a half, it got the six. It is not
(23:50):
going to close at six. It is going to go
back the other way. And a lot of that's fueled by,
like you just mentioned, it was week one. Everybody overreacts
the week one the Seahawks look terrific, really dominated the
game start to finish against the Colts, and then the
Titans had That's as bad as we've seen the Titans
play with this group of players under Mike Rabel. You
just you don't see that from them to that level,
(24:13):
and so you get that, you get the contrasting results there.
It's the natural overreaction. But now it's six. From a
price perspective, it's just way too large. And this Seahawks
defense it is not good. That don't don't let anything
for you. This is a very bad unit. In coverage.
Jamal Adams makes headlines. He's he's terrible in coverage. He's
a phenomenal blitz. So you get them near the line
(24:33):
of scrimmage, it's dangerous. But this number way too big.
So Tennessee at six is definitely a bedroom. If you
said overreaction, I mean, and there are a lot of
them out there, the Tampa Bay Atlanta line, Like how
do you not overreacting as you personally at them? Uh?
Like when you evaluate some of these teams, like, yes,
Seattle looked really good, but I don't know, maybe the
(24:54):
Colts just aren't very good this year, maybe they are
below five D team. And then you see the Seahawks
Colts line and like, sorry, Rams Colts this week, and
you're like, why aren't the Rams favored by more? Um?
I don't know, It's just it's really difficult to not overreact.
Um initially at least now this is we're still early
in the week. You know, by Saturday, I think that'll
have worn off. But I don't know, man, can you
(25:16):
talk me out of betting on, say, the Rams on
the road against the Colts, because I really, I know
a lot of people are gonna take the Colts the
way they struggled defensively against that fast Seattle offense. The
Rams have just as fast as an offense. What So
I'll put it to you this way, were you hire
on the Rams of the Seahawks coming into the season,
I was. I had the Sea the Seahawks below the Rams. Okay,
(25:39):
So was it by a significant margin? I mean I was.
I consider essentially the Rams the second best team in
the NFC, coming in ahead of the Packers. Okay. So
if we're looking at this price, the Seahawks were a
very expensive two and a half or three flat minus
one ten against the Indianapolis Colts in in Now the
(26:01):
Rams are a four point favorite against the Colts in India.
So it's the same venue, but we see a different
price here with a lower total. So any time that
the total is lower the Seahawks and Colds were at fifty,
this is at forty seven, the point spread becomes a
little bit more value per point. So when it when
(26:22):
it comes to looking at this the Rams at minus
four compared to the Seahawks at minus three. It reads
like one point, but the value of three in the
NFL is more important than any other number, So even
though it's just one point higher, it's a very important
one point higher with a slightly lower total. So we're
really seeing if you think the Rams were better than
(26:44):
the Seahawks coming into the season based off Week one,
maybe you think a little bit higher about Seattle in general,
But we're seeing a RAMS line here at minus four
with the shorter total against the same opponent, really reflecting
what you just said, what the wind total markets that
were up for five months reflected. It's really just a
price that comes from that preseason market and how we
(27:06):
sort of all thought about these teams coming into the season.
So it's not a significant difference, and I don't think
it's too high or too low. I think as we're
seeing now, is this number states steady much of the week.
It's just a price that we're sort of expected to
see what the shorter totals. So that's that's how we
get to this number right now. It's it's not a
not a huge difference one way or the other. What
about the RAMS coverings on Sunday Night Football one of
(27:28):
the games that everybody watches. The public's all over the Rams,
do you. I mean, I'm assuming the public is probably
going to come in on the Rams again here at
I don't know a percent or anything like that. I mean,
maybe that doesn't matter to you, not necessarily, because what
the public lines up on one side or the other
is not ultimately going to dictate how much the number
(27:49):
moves one way or the other. Necessarily, it's going to
have a slight impact. But um, if it disagrees with
the numbers that I have, it's not something I'm looking
one way or the other. If I could say anything
about what I saw Sunday night, was this Rams defensive front,
which is lauded and this number one defense from a
season ago, and all of that nonsense because they benefited
(28:11):
from such an easy schedule. But the Chicago ran at
Hill against the Rams defensive front the five point two
yards per rush um. They didn't have a drive to
Chicago Bears that ended on their side of midfield the
entire game. So the Rams were giving Andy Dalton and
this very weak Bears offense a lot of opportunity to
(28:33):
move the football. The Bears didn't ultimately do anything with it.
But um, I had huge concerns about the Rams and
their defense coming into the season just because of how
they looked last year against a very easy schedule that
benefited them a ton. Um not necessarily going to be
backing one side of the other in this game, but
I think the numbers fair. Um, what about the uh
(28:54):
the Bengals game. It looks like today as we're recording
this here on on Wednesday, the Bengals have crossed through
three and now there's I guess just I'm assuming that's
professional money on Cincinnati. Maybe there was a release that
you like to talk about on your pod, but this
was I think I believe it open to four Bengals
at Bears and now it's down to two. Any thoughts there, Yeah,
(29:15):
it's been a ton of professional money. Um, multiple releases.
And when when we say the word release, it's either
a group that is moving on a side that bets
it themselves and then where it gets out and other
people follow, or places that operate as a service where
they have a number of followers who bet at many
different sports books and they collectively bet a game at
(29:37):
the same time it becomes public and people follow on
and so We've seen a case of both sides here
where it's professional money. There has been a released on
the Bengals, and when you see a line move from
a four down all the way to a one for
a road team, it's a significant jump. We're talking about
Taylor at them. Yeah, it's but it's beyond Zach Taylor,
(30:01):
like it's it's Joe Burrow. It's that offense, and there's
belief that, like they can put together a pretty decent
team in a pretty decent season. And you think about
that game against the Vikings. How you get to the
final score is to me more important than what the
final score was. And it was a game where the
Bengals got out to a lead very early, held control
(30:22):
of the game. Vikings come back late. But I was
much more impressed with the Bengals than I was um
the Vikings in that game. And so you take that away,
you get the the Bengals winning. You have the Bears
losing on Sunday night football. As as productive as they
might have been on offense, still, it was a lot
of people watching the Bears lose, a lot of people
(30:42):
watching the Bengals win. It's the Week two. It's over reaction,
and here we are with with a pretty significant move
supported by professional money on the Bengals. Yeah, I think
what's what makes me nervous about the Bears? Do you
remember they ran the kickbacks and they're about to score
and then Dalton, you know, tip pass intercepted the end zone.
If that, if that's a touchdown for the Bears, that
(31:02):
game changes dramatically. You remember the Bears were still in it,
I believe into the third quarter, right, Yeah, and they were,
and then there was a couple of big touchdowns and
the cup reception and I flipped it. But us, like
the Bears, despite what the scoreboard says, we're moving the
football against that Rams defense that sort of gets disregarded.
And the Rams defenses, as to many concerns as I
(31:23):
have with it, uh much better than his Cincinnati Bengals defense.
So we'll see what happens with this number. But certainly
difficult to oppose that much professional money coming in on
the Bengals. Adoption of teams from foster care is a
topic not enough people know about, and we're here to
change that. I'm April Denuity, host of the new podcast
Navigating Adoption, presented by Adopt us Kids. Each episode brings
(31:47):
you compelling, real life adoption stories told by the families
that lived them, with commentary from experts. Visit adopt us
Kids dot org, slash podcast, or subscribed to Navigating Adoption,
presented by adopt us Kids, brought to you by the U.
S Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children
and Families, and the AD Council. What grows in the
forest trees, Sure you know what else grows in the forest.
(32:11):
Our imagination, our sense of wonder, and our family bonds
grow too, because when we disconnect from this and connect
with this, we reconnect with each other. The forest is
closer than you think. Find a forest near you and
start exploring. I Discover the Forest dot org. Brought to
(32:31):
you by the United States Forest Service and the AD Council.
If I could be you and you could be me
for just what hour? If you could find a way
to get inside each other's mind, walk a mile in
my shoes, Waco mile in my shoes shoes. We've all
felt left out, and for some that feeling lasts more
(32:53):
than a moment. We can change that. Learn how it
belonging begins with us dot org brought to you by
the ad count Welcome out, and Fox Sports Radio has
the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all
of our shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and
(33:13):
within the I Heart Radio app search f s R
to listen live. I guess we could wrap up with this,
you know, this Thursday night football, like there are fans
back in the stadiums uh that that was not the
case last year. And um, I just I don't know
how much of a home field advantager is here on
a Thursday night game. Usually these are sloppy. And now
you've got a divisional matchup Washington Giants. I kind of
(33:37):
want to take just a little action play on Danny Dimes. Um,
I don't know. Watching them against the Broncos though, it's
just a tough team to back. Yeah, but like that
Broncos defense and that secondary specifically, it's terrific. Washington their
defense nothing to sneeze about either. But they were again
similar to the Rams, a team I think we think
(33:58):
highly of because of their defense. But it was a
team that benefited from a very easy schedule last season.
So we saw what they looked like against the Chargers.
Letting that team walk all around the field a big
step back to the to the Giants, but this is
a game that will get to a flat field goal.
We've seen this number move just a little bit. It
was four, it's now three and a half. Division game
(34:18):
was such a short total. It's just a spot that
will naturally close at three. UH downgrades for the quarterback
situation in Washington, we've seen that reflected a little bit
within the market, but that's going to continue. UM, I
wouldn't be running about Washington in this spot, but i'd
probably lean to your side with the Giants. But it's
a game I haven't met one way or the other,
but a number I think we see come down just
(34:40):
a little bit more. I meant I only briefly mentioned COVID.
Are you remember last year when you came on, there
was kind of a wait and see. Firing early in
the week could be risky given COVID UH, and we
saw the Saints. I think they had like six or
seven or eight coaches who are vaccinated but have to
be in COVID protocol. So, for instance, they won't be
at practice this week. I guess they'll have zoom in
(35:01):
and then jump in late in the week. Is that
impacting any of how you look at things so far
this season. Honestly, last season, aside from the Broncos Saints game,
which I got lucky on, I never really had a
spot where any of the COVID news impacted any of
the bets I made. Maybe that was me getting lucky,
I don't know, but I'm I didn't really get too
(35:23):
far into it last season, and this year a very
little effort on my side to try to sort of
look into that or determine it. If it gets to
keep players, then obviously it'll matter, but it's it's now.
It seems like the protocol is different for every single
team at this I just I can't keep up with
it and I'm focused elsewhere. UM. I'll leave you with
one bet that I had made earlier this As soon
(35:44):
as the Raiders won that lucky game on Monday night,
I knew I was going to be on the Steelers.
Gruden flying East hates travel huge high profile win on
Monday Night. Even though the Steelers are coming off the
win over the Bills, it just screams like a bad matchup.
I don't know if you've seen some of the Raiders injuries, um,
but in the contest, I think that's probably unless it's seven,
(36:08):
probably gonna be my number one pick the Steelers. Do
you have any thoughts on Pittsburgh and and Vegas? The
tricky part is trying to determine how much of this
stuff has already priced into the line, And so from
the look ahead side, this was Steelers at six after
the Raiders won, and it reopened Tuesday morning, it was
at five and a half. It's still there, but like
(36:30):
you mentioned, it's the Raiders off a huge win in
the stadium with fans for the first time in overtime,
flying east for an early start. Gruden doesn't like flying.
You're going from an indoor team to an outdoor team
in hines Field, a significant step up in class of
opposing defense. Like, there's so many different situations here historically
(36:51):
that work against the Raiders, but a lot of them
are just so widely talked about that you wonder how
much has this factored into the price the Steelers. Last
week we're six point underdogs against the Bills. They're now
six point favorites against the Raiders. Is the gap between
the Raiders and the Bills ten to twelve points? Well? Well, no, wait,
(37:12):
hold on, now, if you had asked me that before
week one it ten might have been a little stretched,
but it probably would have been close to seven. Right
the Bills were weren't they your number two or three
power rated team? They are? But and so that's kind
of what I'm getting at here, is so like like
if it's seven or eight, right, which sounds reasonable, we're
now at an adjustment if we're looking for between where
(37:33):
they were last week and this week, it's out of ten.
We're just talking about how bad the situation is. Is
this number actually inflated because of the situation making that
gap between the teams look bigger already accounting for that
with all of that information priced in, or are we
as better as undervaluing all of that situation and showing
(37:54):
that there might be value here with the Steelers. But
it's always tough to tell with these in the game
where there's so many of these narrative in these situations
based um things that are sort of right around the
game and very widely discussed, like how much of that
is priced in and how much isn't because it's not
like the bookmakers and people with influence within the betting
(38:15):
market don't know about these situations. Yeah, I mean, everybody
has basically the same information, right, but I see something
and again I'm sure this is biked in, But Adam,
you saw the Bills. I think they had six holding
penalties on the offensive line struggling to block Pittsburgh. The
Raiders offensive line just got annihilated by the Ravens on
the blitz and they had I believe two guys injured
(38:36):
coming out of it. We don't know if Incognito is
coming back this week. That doesn't that feel like such
a mismatch in the trenches that I know that they
know that in Vegas. But they're not moving the line
at all, are they not. It's a huge mismatch. But again,
it's the Steelers laying six points. That's favorite. Yeah, that's
a big night. It looks that looks a lot different
(38:56):
than going into Buffalo is a six point TC. Like
I say, it's it's a huge shift for sure. Yeah,
all right, Adam turn off. You gotta listen to his
podcast every day every morning. It's really good, Uh, the
Simple Handicap And then where else can they find your stuff?
At him? Just on The Simple Handicap, Apple, Spotify and
then on Twitter at Adam Try Yeah, he's he's good.
(39:16):
He's Canadian. Um, listen, enjoy the winter up there, Adam.
I'm sure I'll badger you over text for uh. By
the way, do you do any college football betting at all?
Or no? Just NFL? No, it's so tough to follow it,
just with everything I have going on. But then also
being a country a mooved like you said, Canada so
far away that there is truth to that. In the
TV coverage for college is not nearly as good. So
(39:39):
um not a not a college football gun. So yeah,
all right, dude, have a good one, thanks very much.
Talk the only thing better than sitting on your couch
watching the gag. He's making money while you're do it.
Here's your best bet. Great stuff from turn Off. Really
like his work. He's he's a sharp guy. He's worked
(40:01):
on both sides of the counter. You always gotta love that, um,
And now it's time for the best bet. I I
can't talk myself out of the giants here. If you
can get a three and a half, I think you
gotta take it right. Washington has no home field advantage.
That stadium is always empty or quiet. Um, it's just
that there's no disadvantage for the Giants traveling right down. Um,
(40:23):
you know it's a must wean obviously for both teams.
But I have a funny stat so Fox, because we
do a lot of gambling content, they have researchers dig
up some numbers. This is mind blowing. Danny Dimes is
a pretty bad quarterback. We can all agree. Turnover machine. However,
according to Fox research, in four career starts against Washington somehow,
(40:46):
Danny Dimes is four no, completing sixty of his passes,
eight t d s, three interceptions. So four now against
Washington in his career. In twenty three other starts against
everyone some league, he's four and nineteen. A turnover machine
he for whatever, Maybe he gets Washington's defense. I don't know. Um,
(41:10):
I kind of like the Giants here getting getting three
and a half in adividual matchup when us when when
the totals forty and a half? You heard turn Off
talk about that low total. It's gonna be a close game.
Feels like a field goal game game either way. I
will have a personal rooting interest, uh in Terry McLaurin,
obviously for fantasy purposes. Not a great spot for McLaurin
playing with m Taylor Heinekey and I joked that Taylor
(41:32):
Heinnekey was reminded me of Matt Saracen a k a
QB one from Friday Night Lights. Taylor Heneck in that
playoff game basically would drop back. He's like small, so
he was struggling in the pocket and he would just
dart around and like make some kind of crazy plays
and they would happen and it was interesting. Um, you know,
can Taylor Heineck get it done against a Giant's defense.
(41:54):
It's kind of good, but got shredded by Teddy Bridgewater. Um,
I have no faith whatsoever in Heineke. I'm taking the
Giants getting three and a half. Alright, guys, we'll be
back tomorrow NFL Picks and college Football, big, big weekend
in sports. You'll love to see it. We'll talk to you.
Then get right to the romance and find the way
to wow this Valentine's with one d Flowers dot Com.
(42:16):
From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate covered berries,
gourmet treats and more. Surprise your Valentine with Flowers dot
Com right now. Get the eighteen stem enchanted rose Medley
for or upgrade to red Roses for ten dollars. More,
go to one hundred flowers dot com slash tune in.
(42:37):
That's one flowers dot com slash tune in.
Host
Doug Gottlieb
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
On Purpose with Jay Shetty
I’m Jay Shetty host of On Purpose the worlds #1 Mental Health podcast and I’m so grateful you found us. I started this podcast 5 years ago to invite you into conversations and workshops that are designed to help make you happier, healthier and more healed. I believe that when you (yes you) feel seen, heard and understood you’re able to deal with relationship struggles, work challenges and life’s ups and downs with more ease and grace. I interview experts, celebrities, thought leaders and athletes so that we can grow our mindset, build better habits and uncover a side of them we’ve never seen before. New episodes every Monday and Friday. Your support means the world to me and I don’t take it for granted — click the follow button and leave a review to help us spread the love with On Purpose. I can’t wait for you to listen to your first or 500th episode!