3 & Out - Matthew Stafford & the Rams out-duel Brock Purdy & San Francisco 49ers on TNF - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
What is going on everybody? How are we doing? Probably
better than Kyle Shanahan and the forty nine ers because
their season's over. They lose to the Rams at home
with their season on the line, twelve to six. If
you watched every snap like I did, and probably millions
of people did, props to you. That was a old

(00:36):
fashioned West Coast rain game where no one could do
anything until they kind of could, at least the field
goal kickers and Brock Purty. I don't even know what
that pass was, but that was a pretty devastating moment
for Brock and rough night for just the forty nine
ers offense, which just embarrassing. It's pretty bad. Big win

(01:00):
for the Rams, who now you know, schedule opens up
the Jets, the Cardinals end with Seattle. I think we're
looking at a playoff team. So Stafford and the Rams
looking good. Niner season ends, so we will we'll dive
into that game. Do want to piggyback on some stuff
with Belichick and North Carolina? Watch the press commerce today?

(01:22):
A lot going on. Yeah, just just want to hit
on some Belichick stuff. It's Fugazi Friday. I don't even
know if this's technically a fugazi, but just give a
little story about something I've never really utilized and found
it during Christmas time. I was kind of blown away.
Other than that, we will have Stucky join us as well.
Talk a lot of college football, actually because the Army

(01:44):
Navy game and then some NFL games. We got, you know,
the Eagle Steelers, who Steelers are a big dog in
that game. We got the Bills who the Bill's playing again? Oh,
Bill's Lions, Bills Lions. That's a good game. So we've
got some good games this week. I'm pretty excited. So Stuck,
you will join us, talk some gambling as we do
every week. And yeah, other than that, subscribe to three

(02:07):
Now podcast. We had some separate content go up for
when the story broke about Belichick, and I will have
a mail bag out probably Saturday because I got a
ton of mail bag questions. So yeah, you guys know
the drill, you know before we do. I actually knew
a lot of people at this game, and I have

(02:27):
a lot of respect. You know, I love love football,
but you'd be hard pressed to get me season ticket
holder if I had bought tickets to attend that game.
So some people like it. I had a bunch of
buddies on Instagram. I could see that we're there. If
you want to go to one of these games, one
thing with playoff football, depending on where you are. If
you want to go to one of these playoff games,

(02:49):
if you want to go to one of these college
playoff games, put on a jacket or two and enjoy it.
I mean it's big time football obviously, concerts, comedy shows,
my partners, my friends, and the official ticket app of
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(03:33):
let's dive into the game big picture, the season officially
ended for the forty nine ers. They fall to six
and eight, and as Amazon had up there on the screen,
they now have less than a one percent chance of
making the playoffs. And you don't need a statistical breakdown.

(03:55):
Not only are they not making the playoffs, it's time
to start resting, guys, and the season is over. And
that was a devastating loss to lose a game with
your season on the line after bouncing back like that
at home, which is a massive advantage on Thursday late
in the season when you get to play these Thursday
night games suck in November and December, especially for teams

(04:17):
like this is the niner second Thursday game, so it's
difficult whether you've played multiple Thursday games, whether it's your
first Thursday game late in the season. But having the
home game is such a big advantage. Obviously, the Rams
don't have to go far. It's a forty five to
fifty minute flight, but still you don't have to get
on a plane, get to sleep in your own bed
or the hotel bed you're used to sleeping in at
home games, and to score six points and I'm sorry,

(04:40):
like I've really defended this guy because I've been so
impressed over the last couple of years. We just talked
on yesterday's podcast about his leadership and what he represents
for the team and the way the team views him,
how Kyle had him speak to the team. But part
of Brock Purdy's game, part of what made him, you know,
in the eyes of Kyle a special player, was decision making.

(05:05):
Like he's not some dynamic player with his arm. Right,
he does not have a huge arm. Tonight I saw
one of Simmons guys on the Ringer tweeted out Solak,
I think his name is that Brock Perdy on twenty
yard throws was zero of seven with an interception, and
several of those throws are underthrown. He underthrows a lot

(05:28):
of deep balls. Why he doesn't have a big arm, Well,
I can live with that if you are an elite
decision maker, right, and that for a long time when
you know the Niners were kicking ass, was a huge
part of his arsenal, was making the right decisions, was
not putting the ball in harm's way. It was like, Ay,
this guy can become like a you know, an athletic

(05:50):
version of I don't know, you know, his comp was
when he was playing really well, like Drew Brees, and
then you watch tonight, you're like, what was that five
minutes left to go in the game. Your seasons on
the line, it's nine to six. It is nine to
six to put that ball down the sideline and overthrow

(06:10):
them by that much when there are several guys. They
showed the still shot. There's definitely a guy in the
middle of the field wide open for a checkdown. But
that minimum gets some six or seven yards. Again, it
was second down. They're at the thirty three yard line.
So if you get six or seven yards, you cross
that thirty yard line another three or four yards, you
either get the first down or you're in a field
goal range. And Moody, you know who would have thought,

(06:32):
is just drilling field goals. So at worst you're tying
the game. At best, you know a couple in a play,
you get a first down and you keep the chains moving.
And he had done that on that drive. He had
made a great throw to Ricky Piersoll for a first down.
He had made a good throw to George Kittle when
they isolated him in the slot for a first down,
and to make that throw It's like, I don't even know.

(06:53):
That's something like Jamis would do. That's something a bottom
three or four quarterback makes in that spot, in that
position on December twelfth, when you're season hinges on these
last five minutes and everyone knows it, everyone in the stadium,
everyone on the forty nine er sideline, like this is
their season. This wasn't necessarily the Rams season, though it
was a massive game, that was their season, And for

(07:15):
him to make that throw, it's really it's not even
I can't even explain it. But here's where I can't explain.
If I can't trust you to make the right decision
with the package you bring to the table, we got
a major problem. And tonight's not all on him. They
also needed I don't know, they're twenty million dollar wide
receiver who's tweeting, get me the ball, and then this

(07:38):
week with the media is like standing by his tweet.
It's like, okay, Debo. People want to like you, people
have been rooting for you for a long time. They
don't want to call you slow, but you're just not
making any plays. And then you finally get a play
schemed up and one of Purdy's good passes to night.
He hits you in stride and you drop it, which
three years ago, with the with the room you have

(08:01):
in the open field, especially against this team where you've
scored a ton of touchdowns in the past, you take
it to the crip. But then he drops it and
you know, runs the sideline and kind of that encapsulates
his season, which has been an epic disaster. And for
some reason, And listen, I respect you know, guys having
good relationships, but forcing the ball as Brock was doing

(08:22):
the Deebo Samuel to night, you know, like he's Jerry
Rice or Justin Jefferson or Randy Moss get better Randy,
by the way, is just it can't happen, you know.
And part of that, like listen, like that, that's a
that's one of those losses. And that's one of those
decisions by Brock, Like I'm sorry, Like I get it, Kyle,
you really like him. But and the forty nine ers

(08:43):
jet is not some medaling owner. But before we cut
in a huge check this offseason, like we gotta have
some real conversations. And this is where I've been saying
for a long time, like I'm not one of these
people that talk about football. That's anti brock party. But
there is no excusing or defending that throw because what
he like. We all whatever we do in life professionally,

(09:07):
we're all good at a couple things. And you got
to lean into him, right and the more competitive whatever
business you're in, it's very, very important that you like
master those things. Well, he's never gonna have some rocket
arm like Herbert or Josh Allen. So these deep bombs
Ricky piersall smokes smokes would be strong beats. A Kella

(09:28):
weatherspoon on the post he's opened Herbert or Allen or Mahomes.
If they're missing him, they're missing him deep pretty under
throws it. A Kella weatherspoon, you know, makes a good
play in the air. You know the Niners once upon
drafted who's gone on to have a pretty good career.
I don't know if you get credit for drafting a
guy than cutting a guy then having him go on
to have success. But either way, like that's a bad throw.

(09:49):
There was another throw to Purty or I mean to
Debo down the middle of the field. That's this kind
of in traffic and you could say Deebo should have
caught it, which I don't know how you could say.
And that also gets on to Kyle and this gets
back to what Jay Gruden, who came on our podcast
had said. His passing game is not great. You study

(10:09):
his run game, which then his play action passing game
is interconnected, which is awesome, but when he has to
just spread you out and throw because they weren't going
to really run it on the Rams night, Trent Williams
is upstairs in a suite and when they finally showed
the right Trent Williams, he had a scooter next to him.

(10:31):
So we might not see Trent Williams the rest of
the season. He's got a bad injury and he's got
a scooter to get around. That's a big problem. So
their offensive line is not going to be able to
road grade on the left side. Where over the last
couple of years, when they were in a pinch, you
know what they would do. They would put kittle, they
would put us check, and they would hammer it home,
regardless who was the running back, and no matter what,

(10:52):
they would gain yards a lot like the Rams do
when shit hits the fan, they lean what they do well, which,
like we said, is what you gotta lean into. Perty
What does he do well in theory decision making. What
do the Niners do well when Trent run left? What
do the Detroit Lions do run right behind Piney seol
And tonight they couldn't really do that. And the one

(11:13):
thing the Rams do have And I talked to a
couple buddies. I talked to one that like scrimmage their
defensive line in August in a joint practice. I talked
to an advanced scout who study him like they are
a violent physical group. Verse is good, right, the other
two guys that got in the middle make plays in
our physical So the night, like the run game is
not gonna work. So what what they have to do?

(11:34):
Kind of spread it out, which I'm not opposed to, right,
And part of spreading it out you got a quick
decision making a quarterback and Kyle's scheme guys open, and
a couple of times they did, but for the most part,
like Kyle's just calling slants to Debo. Like Kyle, that
play is not working. Might have worked for him in
South Carolina, and Mike might have worked for him early
in his career, it was not working. Tonight wasn't even

(11:55):
completely remotely close to being open. Like there was no
separate and then they interview him at halftime. I love
it too when the broadcasters like thanks for the interview,
or they go back up to the booth and like
al will be like we appreciate Kyle's times. Like guys
they pass rules. He's not like just volunteering his time.
He's contractually obligated now, so he's forced to do that.

(12:19):
But then he's saying, you know, like we got to
make some of these tough catches, Kyle. None of these
guys are open. You're running basic routes and you guys
can't get open for whatever reason. You got a twenty
million dollar you know, wide receiver who's not playing well.
I have a hard time being critical of Ricky Pearsol
because he got shot on fucking Market Street and ninety
nine out of one hundred people die. But like once

(12:41):
he starts playing, I mean, he clearly looks pretty good physically.
It's just he's just not really in the mix, you know,
Juwan Jennings. And here's the other thing. And this is
where I've not defended Miami, but I have just put
it into context, like how could anyone expect Miami in
eighty degree weather. To go on the road to Pittsburgh
to Kansas City to Buffalo in any of these cold

(13:03):
weather environments and have the Green Bay on Thanksgiving, they're
gonna lose. There is no way to prepare for that.
You saw tonight two teams. Now, Northern California is much
colder and typically wetter than LA but still it's cold.
Like Sean mcvain that cold. He didn't even change a sweater.
I mean, you talk about the ultimate football guy move.

(13:25):
He wore a sweater in the rain, which you learn
when you're like six, by your parents. Not a smart move.
And if you are, once you come inside to go
back outside, you change it. He didn't change it. Ultimate
football guy move. I was actually shocked because I was like,
I bet he changed it, and he didn't. He came out,
he's still soaking wet. But I just I don't get it.

(13:45):
I really don't. I'm kind of at a loss. And
the pretty questioned people that question, you know, his status
in the game. Obviously, he's got a lot of disbelievers
like that. They're gonna be feeling pretty good about their
steak where they stand on their position because it is
transitioned back to them and when you make a decision

(14:06):
like that, like I just I can't take you as
seriously as like this huge franchise quarterback that can carry
my team, because that's what I need you to hang
your hat on. And this is now like you've been
starting for a long time, and this is a game
just like any football game. We talk a lot about
spots and games like this is a game like you

(14:27):
didn't even need a touchdown, like a field goal right there,
nine nine, Maybe get a stop and maybe get a
game winning field goal, win the game twelve to nine.
But your final pass cannot be a past his interception
when the guy falls in the end zone. That that
just cannot happen. So tonight for Kyle, for Purty, just
just a devastating night. And it's just a devastating season.

(14:50):
And it has been completely off from the jump with
McCaffrey's preseason and his achilles injuries from the IU hold
out who shatters his leg, to Debo falling off a cliff,
to the other injuries that have propped up to even
the night encapsulated the forty nine ers season. Drake Greenlaw,

(15:12):
who early in the game, you think you know if
Dray green Law wouldn't have tour his achilles in the
Super Bowl? Do the forty nine Ers win? Because I
forget the exact time of that game that he tore.
I think it was the first half. He looked like
Ray Lewis and then you're watching him night, You're like,
Drey Greenlaw is a badass, just cracking people. They had
no run game. They were dominating the line of scrimmage,

(15:33):
and it wasn't just because of Fred Warreon. It was
Dray Greenlaw, who was a certified ass kicker and then
off basically a ten month recovery process for Achilles. He
clearly pulls his calf for something and can't come back
in the game. And what happens when he disappears. They
start getting shredded by Kieran Williams, who's a good player,

(15:55):
but he just starts gashing him. And the first half
back to the West Coast thing. There were more punts
eleven than first downs total both teams nine total first downs,
eleven punts. Stafford had like four completions in twenty yards.
The Rams are trying to give you the game, but
the Niners can't do anything anyway because they can't operate

(16:18):
balls are coming out of their hands, dropping balls, slipping
all over the place. It's like, I get it's raining,
but totally Molly, this can't be the case. And I
get it. You're in your third running back, your star
left tackles out, but just kind of a shitty way
to go out and unofficially end your season because six

(16:39):
points at home, six points at home against the Rams.
I just I'm honestly kind of speechless, I really am.
And mcveigh's got to be thinking if I would have
told Sean McVay today at lunch wherever they were staying,
probably like the Marriott by the airport. You know, we're
having a sandwich. He's probably eaten, you know, lettuce and

(17:01):
grilled chicken and a side of something really healthy, the
opposite of anything i'd eat. But you're gonna score twelve
points to night, Like I know that for a fact.
What do you think he'd tell me? He's like, we're
probably gonna we're gonna lose. We'd be in trouble. I'd
be like, no, actually, gonna score twelve points and kind
of win easily, Like you're gonna get the ball back
five minutes left to go and never give it back

(17:23):
technically he did at the you know, twenty seconds left,
but you kind of cruise, you know, and uh, it's crazy,
And it just gets back to I have to be
able to depend on you. We talk about this a
lot with these quarterbacks. Right, there's that group at the
top that are so much better than everyone else, it's
not even funny. Then there's the next group six to

(17:43):
twelve or thirteen, and they all do specific things pretty well.
And the group party's in like a huge part of
Dak Prescott, who you know, Purty, one of his comps,
not like his comp physically or whatever, but like that
was the world he was gonna plan. When does Dak
get in trouble, he throws the ball to the other team.
You can't turn the ball over. I need you to

(18:04):
be like a gay manager on steroids, and like Stafford,
I can live with some picks because at any moment,
that fucker can uncork a fifty yard bomb at any moment. Like,
he ain't gonna underthrow many balls if he's not getting peppered,
because he has one of the great arms we've ever seen.
Pretty doesn't. So he's going to have to rely on

(18:24):
his head, on his smarts, on playing like Drew Brees,
like an Alex Smith, you know, not just good, but
Steve Young, like control the ball and that that throw.
That's a tough one, man, it really is. And I like,
back to the Rams, you know, I give him a

(18:46):
little pass. You know, Stafford was all over the map
in the rain in the first half. I saw a
stat on Twitter at halftime that Stafford is two hundred
and twenty career starts in his career, two hundred and
twenty starts. Eight of those two hundred and twenty games
at kickoff it's been raining, and you're like, how is

(19:09):
that possible? And then you start thinking, well, he's basically
played his entire career at home in a dome in
Detroit and in LA obviously playing for the Rams the
last three or four years, plays the Niners, plays the Cardinals,
depending on the time of the year, Seattle, it might
not rain. He's just playing a lot of good weather games.

(19:32):
It's a little shocking. I mean I would have bet
five or six of those include Green Bay or Chicago,
but also played a lot of games in Minnesota. So
it's not like he's mister dynamic in the weather. But
he made a huge throw in the second half to
Puka Nakua. He made another huge throw with the game
on the line on third down that essentially ice the game,

(19:55):
and he came through. And it's like, this is my
whole thing with paying a guy. I'm not anti Tua.
I'm just anti Tua at a price point. If you
told me Tua is making Cousins contract where or a
Daniel Jones contract where it's essentially a two year deal,
totally get it. And there's value there. But once we
start talking this huge money, I need huge upside. If

(20:19):
I'm not getting the huge upside, I have a hard
time because at the end of the day, I am
going to run into mahomes Lamar Herbert like that's gonna happen,
and that you've seen it with Dak. They've paid him
huge money and at times it's been tough on them
to build a team. And I think it's fair to say,
like Purty without some weapons once you pay him over

(20:39):
the course, just wouldn't be good enough. It's why I've
maintained the position as this year's kind of gone up
and down. Play it out like I'm not in any
rush unless he will sign like a Daniel Jones contract
to make a huge payment this offseason, and it's games
like today, and it goes back last year, remember on
Christmas Eve against the Ravens, where it's like, I don't know, man,

(21:00):
I just I struggle with the economics of it. And
tonight that throw is it's unconscionable. I'm just I'm really
really kind of speechless. And now the Rams they're going
to be a team that Listen, they play the Jets,
which I'm going to give them a win on that one.
They play the Cardinals at home, which you never know

(21:23):
what the Cardinals by then their season could kind of
be over. I'm going to give them a win there.
There's a decent chance Week eighteen at SOFI Stadium against
Seattle is potentially win for the division and depending on
how it plays out for Washington. Now, I mean there
is a chance that Seattle and the Rams both make

(21:44):
the playoffs one as a wild card. We'll we'll have
to see like how Washington looks this weekend. But I
don't think it's inconceivable that just the Rams win out
and all of a sudden they would have a lot
of momentum. They have a Super Bowl winning coach, They
have a very very violent defensive front. They have a
Super Bowl winning quarterback who when he's on, which obviously

(22:05):
for the first half he definitely was not, but you know,
can go toe to toe with anyone. And if they
were to win the division, they're getting a home game.
So if they won the division, they'd probably you know,
at eleven and six, they would be the three seed. Well,
they probably play the Packers then, and I think both
Seattle or the Rams at the three seed, you know,

(22:28):
to get that spot and win that division, they would
be playing pretty good football. Would feel pretty confident in
that matchup. That'd be a really good first round game.
And then if you win that, like who knows like
they stuff that they can do translates, they can rush
the passer. I know they got gashed against the Eagles,
but that run defense to night was pretty good. They
some of their I mean their dbs make plays. They

(22:50):
have a run game. I mean, really, they got multiple
running backs. Blake Korm doesn't play that much because Williams
is a really good player, but I'd feel pretty good
if he was my second run. And Pooka Nakoula is
just one of the better players in the NFL, and
you know, Cooper Cup didn't even do anything tonight, and
it's like he's pretty reliable. He's been through the ringer,
like you feel comfortable having him in big games. So

(23:13):
nice win by for the Rams on the road. That's
back to back wins. You gotta be feeling good against,
you know, in a four day span, against the Bills
and the forty nine ers. I think the Rams right
now should have a lot of confidence, even if the
final score to night was pretty bad and a lot
of people are gonna be like, that's the worst game
I've ever seen, which listen, it wasn't a great television product. Still,

(23:35):
it's like if you're complaining about it, like, okay, turn
on uh you know, turn on the Kings playing the Pelicans.
I dare you. I bet you won't, and you probably didn't.
I see a lot of people on social media like
this game sucks. You can't believe. It's like, well, you're
watching it.

Speaker 1 (23:48):
I'm not.

Speaker 2 (23:48):
I'm not trying to defend it, but like, what's the
point of complaining about it is happening. Nothing we can do.
We're kind of stuck. But the Rams twelve to six
get a win, So I don't really have anything else
to say. Sad if you're a Niner fan. The NFL

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Speaker 2 (25:56):
Okay, North Carolina Belichick, I've seen so many takes. Let's
start with the college people. Because I've actually seen a
lot of college people. I would say, talk down on this,
hire and I want to start with this. If you
were North Carolina, one, you're not stealing like Kirby Smart right,

(26:17):
You're not stealing Lane Kiffen, like established Dan Lanning, established
college guys that you know plug and play can dominate, Right,
it's not happening. This is by far the best hire
you can make. One, it's one of the best football
coaches in the history of the sport. Two, the name, recognition,

(26:38):
the buzz it brings your program is dion like, like,
there is no way you could have paid me to
watch a forty five minute UNC introductory press conference. With
ninety nine percent of the other people that they would
have hired, no one would have cared. Matt Campbell, the
dude from Kansas whatever, No one would have cared. Everyone

(26:59):
in the world of foot high school, pro college paid
attention today because they hired Bill Belichick. And in the
pros winning the press conference is irrelevant. It does not matter. Obviously,
when you have Jim tom Sula press conference, it can
be a problem. Sirianni had an awful press conference, won

(27:19):
a lot of games. Everyone thought Dan Campbell was the
village idiot. Looks like he turned out. Okay, we've seen
a lot of guys like God, it really impressive in
the press conference. Who cares? It does not matter? In
the NFL. In college that shit does matter, It really does.
Belichick had his general manager, Mike Lombardi on Pat McAfee today,

(27:40):
So he basically has two spokesman himself and Mike, who
is a trained media podcast guy who can speak for
the program. And they got serious outlets to put out
their message. So like the value North Carolina got today,
whatever they're paying Belichick, they couldn't have paid for that,
and what they're gonna get over the course of this offseason,

(28:02):
what he brings to the table just from Belichick North Carolina.
He dropped the line today like, yeah, I talked what
he's talking Like, I talked to Julius Peppers. I talked
to Lawrence Taylor, which when you're a football guy, older guy,
that's not that weird, right, Obviously coach Lawrence, Julius Peppers
was there. And then he just casually like, yeah, I
spoke with Mike. He means Michael Jordan, who I would

(28:23):
imagine him and Bill have known each other for a
long time. So that stuff matters in college today, mattered
at North Carolina, and they should be if I was
a North Carolina fan, a static. So all these people nitpicking, well,
how's he gonna do? Guys, they're six and six. They've
been kind of irrelevant. Besides some draft picks here and
there like this hire is a no brainer. From that

(28:45):
their standpoint, another conversation, I've heard his legacy right, Well,
here is a reality. If Bill had never coached again,
if he had just gone back and forth between Nantucket
and Jupiter, Florida with his twenty four year old girlfriend
and just ridden off into the sunset and just enjoyed
watching his son coach and just chilled, and it never

(29:06):
ever stood on a sideline the rest of his life.
His legacy and the way we talked about him as
a guy with six Super Bowls and you know, the
patriarch of you know, one of the greatest, if not
the greatest dynasty of my lifetime, would never be changed.
And if he loses at North Carolina, like let's just

(29:27):
say it's possible. If this doesn't go well, I'm betting
on it him having success. I think they will win.
If he stays there for four years, I'd be stunned
if he's not, you know, a playoff coach, especially when
you factor in his conference. But if it doesn't go
well and it just kind of flames out and this
is the end of Bill Belichick, it will also not

(29:50):
phase his legacy. Vince Lombardi coached the Redskins after the Packers.
Because I was thinking about this the other day, like
when I was a kid, like, who were prominent sports
people that were basically dead, already gone, like not part
of my life for the last twenty thirty years as

(30:11):
I was growing up becoming a sports fan, Vince Lombardi
long gone. You close your eyes, you picture Vince Lombardi
drawn that sweep for the Green Bay Packers. Bear Bryant,
I don't even think I've ever heard him say a
word long gone. John Wooden, same thing. Now, he passed
away in twenty ten. But Bill Walsh, right, he died.

(30:32):
I think when I was in high school. You know,
Bill Walsh after he retired quit resigned from the forty
nine ers in I think it was nineteen eighty eight.
They actually won the Super Bowl the next year with
George Seffert. I think most people view Bill Walsh as
winning five Super Bowls. Definitely four. George sefer won a couple.

(30:53):
Bill called her quits after eighty eight. Then he coached Stanford,
where they didn't have any success. Bill Walsh and Vince
Lombardi we hold to esteem like you would talk about
business legends like Bezos or Warren Buffett, or just like
famous people in America, and we never talk about how

(31:13):
their career ended. I bet if you polled most people
like under fifty that obviously if they fallow sports, no
Vince Lombardi, they would have no clue that his career
didn't end after the Packers. Definitely most younger people that
if you follow football here, Bill Walsh's name a lot,
you would not know that he coached Stanford in the
early nineties. So I think this risk for Bill isn't

(31:38):
that crazy. He actually doesn't have that much to lose,
but he actually has something to gain because there's a
short list of coaches who have done both successfully and
won it all. I think Jim Harbaugh will be added
to the list, Barry Switzer, Pete Carroll, and Jimmy Johnson.

(32:00):
Now Pete Carroll was at USC Barry Switzer was at Oklahoma,
and Jimmy Johnson was at Miami. Those are powerhouses forever,
and those are places when you get the job and
you do it right, everyone agrees you can win a
national championship. They don't say that about North Carolina, but
as Bill talked about it today, that's not the world

(32:22):
I'm entering. I'm entering this nil transfer portal, a completely
different landscape. So will it work. I'm betting on it.
There's no sure thing. But here's what I know. If
he does flop, it will not impact the way he's
discussed to my unborn child, what I'm telling him about
Bill Belichick in twenty years, it will not matter, Just

(32:46):
like when I tell him about Peyton Manning his last
season when he couldn't throw, that won't come up, or
how Tiger Wood's back does not work. No one cares.
They remember the great moments. But if this goes well
like he will be an undisputed like it would be
the icing on his cake. And you could argue that

(33:06):
it would be more impressive than if he would have
stayed in the NFL and just won more games past Sula,
even if he never won another Super Bowl, just had
good teams, like we know he can win if he
gets the right quarterback. And uh, last, but not least
on this topic, Listen, I think sometimes when you're dominating,

(33:28):
you know, in fairness to Bill. And here's the other thing,
like one thing that clearly resonates with human beings in
this landscape, we have right now is authenticity like that
that's really big, like to society right now, all the
metrics are inclined to tell you that, and the moment

(33:48):
people think you're a fraud or a phony, they're out
on you. And that's always been true in coaching, because
there have been college coaches that were widely viewed forever
as like, ey, guy's kind of a politician. It's kind
of the guy Bill's replacing, fits that mold mac Brown,
kind of a bullshit artist. Saban was the best of
both worlds, right. He was an elite, no nonsense, dominant

(34:10):
scheme guy, but he also could put on the charm
in some of those videos of him dancing at a
church or dancing in someone's living room. He could do
that and I don't think he was faking it. So
when people are like, how is Bill gonna do that? Well,
guess what. He won't have to just be yourself. You
would say. Deon Sanders is the polar opposite of Bill Belichick.

(34:34):
But why do people relate to Deon Sanders Because he's
been the same. He's acted the exact same since I
was like seven years old and started watching football. He's
just now from a player version morphed into the coach version,
but he's still authentically true to who he is. And
Belichick even today, like I mean, he's a little more

(34:54):
I would say open in these press conferences, but he's
still Bill Belichick and authentic to who he is. So
part of college football, which I don't understand why it's
that polarising, Like how's he gonna dance? Part of the
reason everyone makes fun of Brian Kelly. He's making up
fucking accents. It's like, Brian, just talk like you talk.
Or that video where he's spinning around, it's like, you

(35:16):
don't need to try to do that. Now, that was
kind of funny, but just try to be yourself. That's
got you this far. So I actually don't think Bill
Belichick has to morph into something he's not what he is.
We'll see if it works, but like his best chance
for success is just to be him. Now. Part of
him rubbed a lot of people in the NFL the

(35:37):
wrong way. And there was a Wickersham article today, There
was an athletic article today. One thing that was said
that he burned a lot of bridges while he was
in the NFL. And in the Wickersham article. It said
that when he interviewed last year with the Atlanta Falcons
that it turned him off when Terry Fontinau was interviewing him,

(35:58):
that he acted like he knew everything about drafting. And
I think a lot of people had pushed back on
Bill that like he has to be in charge. Well,
in fairness to Bill, even no one. You won't find
anyone besides like maybe him and some family members defending
some of his draft picks, especially at the end, that

(36:19):
they were an embarrassment. But in what world in an
interview could Terry font know look at Bill Belichick and
break down the draft of their philosophies and what works
and what doesn't and expect Bill Belichick to take him seriously,
Like I do understand if you're sitting in his shoes, like, yeah, now,
if you want to argue burning bridges and screwing over

(36:42):
people and acting like an asshole, yeah, that's probably is
not a great move over the countless times he did it.
And now he has no job options in the NFL,
which is a big reason. Clearly he went to college.
He knew no one was going to hire him, and
I think the only place that would have made sense
and they entered it last year. Was he has a
good relationship with Howie. He trusts Howie to make moves.

(37:03):
He's even talked about it on national television. Was to
go to the Eagles and then the Eagles start having
a good season, he realized, like, who knows, it might
not happen, Like I'm not going to the Jags, the
Bears aren't going to talk to me. I'm never going
to the Jets. Like it's just not gonna happen. And
the one thing I said this over the course of
the week and you saw it today. The guy loves

(37:24):
to coach football. He's not doing this for the money. Obviously,
he's still highly paid in North Carolina. But if you
put me in his shoes, if you put you in
his shoes, with his success, where he's at in life
with a young girlfriend at seventy three years old, with
his son, like, I don't know if I'd work anymore
at that point, I think I would just hang out. Now, Listen,

(37:47):
I love golf as much as anyone. You can only
play so much you get bored. But to have the
passion and the drive and the desire to still want
to get up every morning at five thirty or six
and come into the office like you got to respect it,
you really do. And he said something today when they
asked him. A reporter said, Bill, we're basically the same age.

(38:10):
So my question for you at this age, why do
you want to do this? And his response was, well,
it beats working when my dad, when I was young,
my dad told me, do what you're passionate about and
it won't feel like you work. And that's the best advice.
It's the advice I always give to anyone I've ever met,
because no matter what you do, Bill's not totally right

(38:33):
on that. Whatever you do, whether you're a musician, whether
you're a podcaster, whether you're you know, working in a
white collar tech job, and you love it and you're
passionate about it, and it means there are gonna be
elements of it that feel like work, that can become monotonous.
There are gonna be days where it's like, ah, don't

(38:54):
really feel it here. But still, when you love what
you're doing, you were that much more inclined to give effort,
extra effort, to be that much more determined to be successful,
to take that extra effort. And I have a lot
of respect for him doing this because he does not
need to do this. He's not doing this for the money.
I honestly don't think he's doing it for the ego.

(39:16):
I think he's doing it one because he loves football,
like you can't love anything anymore. I don't have children yet,
but the way you describe, and I saw it with
my parents toward me, like the way you love a child,
just unconditional, Like it's just it never ends and never fades,
and it's just a powerful connection that is not comparable

(39:36):
to anything else in your life. That's what Bill has
with the sport, and honestly, Mike Lombardi does too. Like Mike,
you're making a ton of money, You're doing all this
media stuff. Life's good. He loves working with his buddy
doing football stuff. It's gonna take way more time and
effort and just your life's gonna be turned upside down

(39:57):
in terms of working ninety hundred hour weeks, banging tape, recruiting,
bring guys to campus transfer portal. They just love it, man,
they really do. And I and I have a lot
of respect for that. And I guess I'll get you
out of here here on this. It is my fiance's
birthday tomorrow, and uh you gotta get her a present.

(40:19):
And she, you know, ever since she's got this, you know,
big real estate job, she's she's hobnominate with some movers
and shakers, and she's like, I need to get a bag,
like a bag. She's like, yeah, like a like a
designer bag because she has like an Amazon bag that
I was like, I don't. I don't even know the difference.
A little out of the loop on this. I obviously

(40:40):
know and have heard about people with designer bags, but
it's just I've never had one. So she started showing
me kind of what she's interested. I'm like, what what
you want to Should we just buy like a jet
ski instead? And uh so I started doing some digging
and then in uh so, my fugazi here is if
you ever get in a position where you need to

(41:02):
you're thinking about getting one of these things. I've never
been to a consignment store. I guess I had since
I've moved to Arizona a couple times for like furniture,
but I had never been to one with like clothes,
like a high end one with clothes, jewelry and specifically back.
So I started doing some digging. I'm like, wait, they
have these. They resell stuff. And I went to this

(41:24):
consignment store and I started saying, listen, I don't know
what really I'm looking for. I just know that she
needs a tope bag, whatever the fuck that is. Can
you help me out? Can we help you out? Come? Look,
and they just have walls. Now this Paradise Valley, high
end place in Arizona, like where the house Kingsbury was in.
I think Kyler lives there now JJ Watt And I'm

(41:46):
just like, this is exactly what you's looking for. I
see the price. I'm like, I get like four of
these for the price of half of the real one.
Why would I buy the real one? Now, some of
them a little used, but I found a couple that
was like, oh yeah, this one, it just sat in
this lady's closet. She never even opened it. She had
like seven hundred of them. Like how much that price?
They're like five hundred bucks, eight hundred bucks. I mean

(42:08):
the price is for the new ones. I mean you're
talking thousands of dollars for a back. Now, in fairness,
She's like, what do you want for your birthday? I'm like,
Scottie Cameron Putter, and you know, the thousand dollars Putter,
but still, I mean thousand dollars, I could have bought
five Scotti Cameron Putters for the price of a back.
But I guess girls like bags and consignment stores. They
had so much other stuff. I might go back and

(42:30):
shop for my mom people in my life for Christmas
because it's an incredible deal, it really is. So I
don't know if that's necessarily for Gazi because listen, the
price of the Louis and the Guccheese and the Pradas
and all that. The price of the price they don't do.
There's no cyber Mondays or you know, Black Fridays in
those stores, which I respect. But then you go, it's like,

(42:53):
this is the same bag, this person might have used
it for six months, and it's a quarter of the price.
And listen, I'm not mister cheap, but I also just like, well,
why wouldn't I just buy three of these for like
a one thousand dollars And that's what I did. So
we'll find out if she likes it. Maybe she'll throw
him back in my face because they got you know,
there's a couple of marks we had to buffer out,
but ultimately I feel like I did pretty well. Okay,

(43:29):
back at it again with my main man, Stucky on
the day that Belichick who will hold his press conference
a couple of days away from Belichick's favorite program, NFL
or College Navy playing Army, and I know Stuck he's
a junkie for that game. I saw it opened up

(43:50):
a little like around forty. It's last I checked. It
was I think like thirty eight and a half. All
lines presented here by DraftKings. This has to be I
bet you have this. That is this? When's the last
time these two teams combined for nineteen wins coming into
a game. This has to be one of the better
versions of both teams playing in this game in a
long long time. I feel like at minimum one of

(44:11):
the teams usually have three or four wins coming into
this game. Definitely recently, right, Yeah, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (44:20):
Let's see. Yeah, it's the most combined wins ever.

Speaker 2 (44:24):
A couple of years ago they were both terrible.

Speaker 1 (44:26):
Yeah, first time since twenty seventeen of both teams have
already clinched Bowls, and first time since twenty seventeen. The
Commanders and Chiefs Trophy is at stake. It's the highest
total since twenty nineteen. But yeah, this is the most
combined wins in one hundred and twenty fifth version of

(44:51):
the Army Navy Game. Army. If they win, they'll win
their twelfth game of the season, which would be the
most in program history. Uh. Historic game. Always catch it.
I used to go. My dad used to bring me
growing up when it was at the the Vet in

(45:11):
Philly and Uh.

Speaker 2 (45:14):
I went to the Link I think in twenty ten,
I think it was. It was pretty cool.

Speaker 1 (45:20):
Yeah, the I think it would have been the Vet.
And when I was Army, I remember one time, I
mean I was very very young. We had a We
were sitting in a section where Bill Clinton came. So
Bill Clinton was president I must have been like eight

(45:41):
nine ten, Uh, and we had Secret Service had to
come and check out our section, and then he came
and sat down. Uh. That was pretty wild to see
as a kid. But yeah, I always love this game.
If there was a game that would go over. The
past two have gone over, actually, but like one was

(46:03):
in overtime or like two of the past three. One
one was in went to overtime to go over, and
the other was on like the last play of the game.
This game historically has been un I mean just a
pure underfest. I mean since two thousand and five, unders
between Service academies are forty six, eleven and two. And

(46:29):
now the market has adjusted, markets adjusted these types of things.
You know, like the last couple years, the totals would
close it like thirty three, and they never would like that.
Before you go back ten fifteen years, you were totals
in the forties, some totals in the fifties. Market's much
more efficient now people have people still struggle to model
these teams just your your traditional model army, and the

(46:50):
Service academies don't really fit into them. They have like
they're you know, the their yards per plays very low,
but they're fine with getting like two to three yards,
are going to go ford lot on fourth ounce, They're
going to chew up the clock. But just the familiarity,
which is what their advantage is in other games because
other teams they don't get the best athletes, they don't

(47:11):
get the five stars. To what their advantage is they
have a unique scheme and more college teams as we
you know that we talked about this all season as
the top kind of the talent condenses and we're going
to get more parody. The bottom is going to start
to fall off more. And with that, I think you

(47:32):
have to some of those teams should consider having unique
schemes and unique offenses because then teams aren't preparing for
you for that type of offense on a weekly basis.
So that's their strength, but when they go up against
each other, they don't have that advantage. You're playing against
the defense that plays against a similar type of offense
every single day in practice. The coaches know you know,
and plus the coaches know what to look for, how

(47:54):
to coach them up. And then these are generally very
disciplined I mean service, catties, discipline and teams, and that
is eighty percent of defending an option attack. Now they're
they're a little more advanced. Their offense isn't than they
have been in the past. This isn't just your standard
handed off, full back dive, fake full back dive run

(48:18):
outside for the option. They're a little bit more advanced.
So if there was a game that would just fly over,
it will be this one. But it's against my nature
to bet the over in these games. I wouldn't fault
anyone for doing it. But I have a good friend
who's heavily invested in the over and I'll probably be

(48:38):
trolling him if it's seven to three at the half,
like I told him. But I'm looking forward to this
one for sure. The Davis like maybe it gets the seven.
The lot that's too high because again the familiarity, it
should be lower scoring. This army just crushed tu Lane.
I think they're the better team, but again the familiarity,
like just this be close and it should be lower scoring.

(49:03):
So I'm waiting to get a seven with the Navy.

Speaker 2 (49:05):
The Davis Blue Devils. Where I went to high school,
we ran the Delaware rind Wing te So I got
a special place in my heart for you know, the
twenty eighth sweep and the the thirty one full back
trap belly. They call it belly Belly Belly. Yeah, yeah,
we run some of that. Uh So you know what's
funny is like, even when I was at Fresno State

(49:26):
and Pat Hill ran a pro style offense, he still
had caught, you know, in the run game because they're
just they love running. The had run game concepts based
in pro style offense with belly and the trap and
you know the sweep. It's it's all interconnected. You know,
these guys are such fucking junkies, but in.

Speaker 1 (49:43):
Some of it and everything in football is cyclical, Like
you're starting to see all those concepts come back into
the NFL.

Speaker 2 (49:51):
Yeah, for sure.

Speaker 1 (49:54):
As everyone evolved in like catching up to passing and
how to defend spread and pass. You know, you're seeing
these teams that again have unique running schemes that can
move the ball in different ways and it's always a
capt and mouse game. So everything in football forever will
always be cyclical in that sense.

Speaker 2 (50:13):
Well, before we dive into some of these, we have
some really good games this weekend, actually on Sunday because
Saturday doesn't really exist beside the one game. But you
have a unique perspective because you know, you live in
I think what could be argued like the number one
college basketball era area in America that Indiana, North Carolina.

(50:34):
It'd definitely be in the conversation for us. You know,
I think if you just pulled sports fans, Kentucky would
be have a strong, strong argument to be number one.
But the football program a couple of years ago has
had some moments. Obviously, they have one of the Stoops Brothers,
who's pretty polarizing, but it's not apples to apples with
North Carolina. I think you would agree because the SEC

(50:57):
is harder, like he is playing Georgia. See now the
No Division's bam. It's just way more difficult than playing
even Mario Crystal Ball ain't exactly Jimmy Johnson. So when
you when it became final, what was what were your
thoughts as just a college football junkie. Somebody follows this shit,
somebody's probably bet on and against North Carolina, you know

(51:19):
the ACC. Well, what are your thoughts on Belichick going
to North Carolina?

Speaker 1 (51:26):
I was number one. I was just shocked. I didn't
see it coming. And my thoughts are it could either
really work really well or just be a complete disaster.
And how you know, kids are going to respond to them,
how he handles the kids, and that's a big uncertainty.

(51:48):
I think what we'll you know, because at the end
of his career he started to lose his fastball a
bit in terms of you know, I mean the drafting
fell off, but just special teams, game management, like a
lot of those things fell off. So I think, what

(52:09):
is going to determine if he ultimately succeeds is who
he hires as his coordinators and fills out his staff.
I think that's gonna go a long way because I
think another thing that happened to him at the end
of the his error in New England. I mean, you

(52:29):
obviously lost Brady, but he was he was too loyal
to certain guys and that we're on his staff, and
then he was responsible and him and Brady were responsible
for most that success. You saw the guys that would
go elsewhere, so but he was too loyal to certain
guys that were so like is he is? Is Matt

(52:51):
Patricia gonna be the OC?

Speaker 2 (52:52):
Like?

Speaker 1 (52:52):
You wouldn't want that, So I'm curious to see. I
assume he's gonna would you want him as your DC?
I think he's gonna bring in his son who as
his DC, who I think did a really good job
at Washington and is pretty sharp, So I think that
would be a good move. And I think he wants
like his son to be the successor at UNC as

(53:14):
the head coach, but which I don't know if I
can see Steve being a head coach, but you never
know how those things work. I think he would be
a good DC hire, the OC hire is going to
be really important. And then obviously it's all about managing
the portal somewhat recruiting. How's all that going to shake out?

(53:38):
You know, it's not College is so much more now
than just Okay, here's our team, and here's going to
be our game plan and the x's and o's, like
there's a lot of other stuff that goes into it.
So his staff is going to be so he has
like an R he can just go like, hey, I'm
Bill Belchick, come play for me. I have connections in

(53:59):
the end. Right, he can sell that very easily. But
I think his staff how he fills that out is
going to be uber critical. But it'll be fascinating to
watch for sure.

Speaker 2 (54:10):
What would you say the coaching staffs he's going up against? Uh,
I mean, I think Mario is pretty big scam artist
when it comes to just out coaching.

Speaker 1 (54:18):
You clearly doing well.

Speaker 2 (54:21):
Elite. Yeah, he's elite. Like Belichick would die for Mario
to be like his number three, right recruiting given bags
be his on line coach, Like he needs guys that
is big in college football, Like he can't just bring
Josh Patricia even Steve like he's gonna need some like
college football hustler recruiters, like there is a balance on

(54:42):
a staff more than the NFL. Like the NFL ideally
all your position coaches and coordinators to just scheme guys.
In college, there's a lot of guys making seven figures
or high or high six figures because they can recruit
and interact with high school kids and coaches.

Speaker 1 (55:00):
Yeah, and yeah, I think, And that's it's a great point.

Speaker 2 (55:04):
I think that like pat Patricia ain't resonating with people
like he's to me, that's one for Bill, It's like
I just I'd pivot on that one, but he's not
going to Patricia's gonna come.

Speaker 1 (55:14):
I'm also curious just how much weight and gravity does
he have in terms of recruiting. So a lot, I
would assume, so, but I'm not, you know, I'm not eighteen, right,
Like so like Bill Belichick, how much old does he
still does he have with an eighteen year old now?
And it's gonna be a lot, but how much?

Speaker 2 (55:31):
Right?

Speaker 1 (55:31):
How many more of those for potential five stars can
he get because of who he is? And because it.

Speaker 2 (55:39):
Does it matter now with money?

Speaker 1 (55:42):
Yeah, I mean it's I think it's it matters a
little bit, but not as much. But yeah, you got
you gotta manage the portal, you have to you have
to do all those other things like crystal ball. You
also still need to to manage the game, prepare your team.
So it's a it's a fine balance. And he can't
treat the the players the same way. I mean, maybe

(56:04):
he can because he's Bill Belichick. I mean Saban would
just you know, he would lose his lady run it
like a military. But you know, they're kids, not adults,
And how is he going to manage the difference? There's
it's not the same. So I just think it's going
to be a fascinating watch to see how it all
plays out. But I'll definitely be watching his staff for sure,

(56:26):
and how he fills that out because I think that'll
go a long way and determining where.

Speaker 2 (56:29):
This goes one thing will be interesting. I think you
said this is like people forget that Alabama the last
couple of years has been a little shakier, you know,
in terms of some of the nuts and bolts of
penalties and stuff. And I do wonder, you know, part
of what Nick had advantage of. He's obviously, you know
one of the rare college defensive guys who's just an
elite Belichick level schematic guy. But he was also getting

(56:51):
the best players well pre transfer portal. By the time
most of those guys started, it took them a year
or two in the program. Before they started. He had
two or three four years with everybody, and then once
transfer portal started happening, you don't get as much time. Well,
part of Belichick's whole thing, the reason he always said,
like he would take I'm just gonna use this example

(57:12):
Cole Strange. You know guys that aren't as talented. He's like,
why the fuck you drafted that guy? Because he thought
they were smart and they could learn his complex stuff.
So like, well, you're getting guys coming in and out
the complexity of everything they do, like what Josh McDaniel's
thing was, Patriot offense is really hard. Only Brady can remember.
Gronk used to be like, Tom, you got to calm down.
No one can understand what you're saying. You're speaking chineseier

(57:34):
and that to me, like now, Belichick at his core
is a teacher. He obviously understands that. But that's gonna
be a challenge of like the balance of how much
you can give kids they might only be in your
program for a year or two. Right, yep, Yeah, that's
a fascinating Yeah.

Speaker 1 (57:51):
Maybe part of the saving thing also was just you
lose your fastball. I think they're like the same age,
they're like seventy three. So you can't do as much
as you used to be able to do. You're probably
not as sharp as you used to be. So again
that comes back to your staff and who you hire
and who's around you, which is what I think it'll

(58:13):
come down to. But there's there's so many layers to it,
and it'll be a fascinating watch and fascinating win total
and everything to talk about because in this era of
college football, we saw it this year. Look at Indiana
in the College Football Playoff. There's so much variance year
to year with these teams. A team like Ohio, how

(58:35):
it was bottom five in returning production in the on
offense and defense, lost pretty much everyone. They lost Rourke,
their quarterback to Indiana, led into the playoff. His team
lost everybody. They won the MAC. I mean they were
picked as one of the worst teams coming in to
the season. There's so much variance in a year to
year basis, So you can you grab a certain number

(58:56):
of players, you make a coaching higher change that works
out ten wins. You can find yourself in the College
Wall playoff discussion. Is it the ACC like it's not like,
yeah sucks. Yeah, it's not the SEC.

Speaker 2 (59:09):
It sucks. And their biggest advantage Florida State in Miami
doesn't exist if he's got twenty million dollars to pay people,
as they say that, they're going to fill his nil
coffer up.

Speaker 1 (59:18):
So that's yeah, the money that's not going to watch.
How much money do they have to play with because
that's because it.

Speaker 2 (59:22):
Wouldn't have made as much since ten years ago. Right,
going up against Miami in Florida State, you're a too
big of a disadvantage. Well, now you go, I can
buy more players, Dawn I said recently. Right, we're gonna
have more money moving forward.

Speaker 1 (59:35):
Yeah. Yeah. And another thing to keep in mind, just
because it is Bowl season. I'm sure we've talked about
more of these in the College Wall Playoff games in
future episodes, But certain coaches care more about balls than others,
and as you might imagine, crystal Ball not one of them.
Because what does crystal Ball care about recruiting, filling out

(59:56):
the road? What do you think he's Do you think
he's spending time on the game plan for Iowa State
over the next weeks? Probably not, And crystal Ball has
not been good. Let me say he's two six and
one I think against the spread in bowl games. So
it's all about what's that he says he's gonna play. Now,

(01:00:16):
this is a fascinating to there's gonna be like in
recent years, the only top five picks, like projected top
five picks that I can remember playing. I'm sure there's more,
it's just off the top of my head, but I
remember Alabama, Bryce Young and Will Anderson both played in
the Bowl when the exting was like, yeah, they're not

(01:00:38):
going to play, and everyone was betting against them, including me,
and then they ended up playing this year. But if
you go back and you look at all like the quarterbacks,
the top five that you set out if it's a
meaningless but not if it's a playoff game. But this
year you have like all of these guys are saying
they're going to play, and you know the Colorado Dion

(01:01:01):
came out. He was taking a little shot at Florida State.
He says, you know, we don't opt out, and I
have to see our program greater the next year. But
he says, like Shador and Travis Hunter are gonna play
like they're projected top five picks. Cam Ward comes out,
I think it was on a zoom call with Dean
says he's going to play. Now, all this stuff is
kind of new. I don't know if there's so the

(01:01:23):
sample size isn't great, but I don't know if there's
number one, it could change. There are any agents could
get to them and say please don't play, But there
also could be they also could just play a little
bit and then not and then come out of the game.
But there also could be like nil deals tied to
not opting out, so a couple million dollars. I don't

(01:01:48):
know if it would be like pro rated or what.
I don't know how that works, but I've read rumblings
of that. I don't I don't know how the contracts work,
so there could be other things at play. But it's
very surprising that if you look down the board at
all of like the top quarterbacks, it looks like most
of them are going to play. I'll be curious, and
so I'll be curious to follow that and how it

(01:02:08):
plays out because they're ha been guys before that said
they're gonna play and then agent gets in their ear
and they end up sitting out. Like I think Marvin
Harrison was trying. He was hurt, but he was like
said he was gonna play, but you know, he didn't
end up playing. There's most of the guys recently have not,
but it looks like this year some of the top
guys are going to play. It'll be very interesting to watch.

(01:02:28):
I have a tracker that I spend countless hours on
every single day following injuries, coaching moves, portal movement, opt outs,
you name it. For every single bowl game. You just
go to my Twitter profiles in there at Stucky two
because it's it's like a full time job monitoring all that.
So if you're betting the bulls, check that out because
literally every hour there's someone going into portal, someone saying

(01:02:52):
they're gonna opt out something. I mean, it's it's insane.

Speaker 2 (01:02:54):
Well, sometimes coaches leave, right Assistant coaches like a linebacker
coach or a coordinator might just take an upgrade a
job and they leave before the Bowl game.

Speaker 1 (01:03:03):
Yeah, so that's yeah, that's important.

Speaker 2 (01:03:05):
I give you a lot of credit. I don't know
how you even track that. That's a lot of shit
going on. It's not like there's thirty two NFL teams.
There's how many Division one teams?

Speaker 1 (01:03:12):
Yeah, there's well, there's eighty teams. The track. The good
thing is you can remove the playoff teams. There's more
playoff teams now because you know that everyone that's gonna
stay and play. But yeah, you're talking like around seventy
teams that you got to follow. It's a lot of
work that the head coach is a really interesting. Teams
that haven't had a head coach over the past two cycles.

(01:03:33):
They've gone zero to nine in bowl games, I think
two and seven against the spread. And it's not like
they've lost, they've gotten blown out like Perdue LSU two
years ago. Syracuse last year lost forty five nothing to
South Florida, and I think part of that again not
the biggest sample size, but I mean there's count all
most of those examples. The teams just got ran off

(01:03:53):
the field. Oregon State last year if they lost Jonathan
spi notre En didn't even play anybody and just but
I think what happens is once a coach leads, you're
most likely going to have a lot more opt outs
and there's not what's the incentive to play. You're gonna
have a lot more guys hit the portal even before
the game starts. In the betting market, you're probably gonna

(01:04:14):
have a lot more guys that the betting market didn't
find out about that end up opting out. So, yeah,
teams without a coach and like this year, I don't know,
it's like West Virginia, Ohio and Jacksonville State actually play
each other, so that doesn't really count.

Speaker 2 (01:04:31):
North Carolina have a go six and six.

Speaker 1 (01:04:35):
Yeah, North Carolina is one of them. Freddy Kitchens is there,
remember him? Uh, he's going to be their their interim coach.
So I list all them out too. So there's that's
definitely worth watching because over the past few seasons in
this new era that UNLV although Cal's starting quarterback at

(01:04:57):
the portal, their backup got hurt. Now they could be
down to their third string. That game is wild Cows
up to a four and a half point favorite, now
down to one. I don't know what to make of
that game.

Speaker 2 (01:05:06):
State. I heard about the cal quarterback. He's going to
go to Miami.

Speaker 1 (01:05:11):
Yeah, he's he's probably gonna get paid. And then, like
the writings on the wall, you saw an hour before
it was announced, his lead top receiver hit the portal.
So you can kind of read some tea leaves. You're like, oh,
there might be something coming here. Washington State's quarterback might
hit the portal soon. Sam Houston State doesn't have a coach.

Speaker 2 (01:05:30):
They have.

Speaker 1 (01:05:32):
I don't eleven twelve guys in the portal, but they
say they're going to play. That could be like James
Madison last year. They didn't cover when Signetti lost, but
most of them ended up playing. So that because Sam
Houston say new team FBS, they might be excited to
play in a bowl. A team that might not is Marshall.
I think Marshall has the most guys in the portal.
The starters in the portal. Their coach left, they won

(01:05:55):
the conference championship. Their coach left for Southern miss from Marshall.
They he didn't get along with the program all there.
Most of their starters are at the portal and their
QB one, QB two, QB three, they're down to a
couple freshmen. I don't know which one they're going to
go with. Marshall could be a mess. They're playing Army.
And one last nugget, I know I'm rambling. Service academies

(01:06:15):
in bowl games usually a great bet. Reason for that
they always show up. Motivation is not an issue of
motivation in these meaningless bowl games is huge? Do as
does the team care? Did they prepare? Do they want
to be there? Who opted out? Service guds? Don't worry
about it. You know they're going to show up. You
know they prepared. You know they're going to care. And

(01:06:35):
so seventy percent against the spread service academies in Bowl
games since nineteen ninety and one of them, Army is
playing Marshall.

Speaker 2 (01:06:43):
I didn't know if this was true or not, but
I saw on Instagram did Marshall again? I felt like
this guy was making this up in the comments that
it wasn't quite true that every single guy on the
team opted out or wind the transfer portal as basically
because they wouldn't pay him. That's why the guy left.
I note the deed, not that it matters because funny

(01:07:03):
thing about the cow quarterback. Did you see the clip
when they beat Stanford like second or third of the
last week of the season that went viral of him
going died on the field. My guys, it was an
incredible moment. I heard on like Wednesday or Thursday of
the next week, and this this happens a lot. I
guess college football people know this. That he just goes
up to Willcox again after one of the more viral moments,

(01:07:25):
Everyone's like, God, the passion, this is why we love
and looks at Willcox and says I'm sick, which is
the new I'm fucking out of here. So it's like
we live. I'm not taking I guess that moment was real,
but how could it be real if he already he
already knew he was leaving. Surely it's like this is
good luck Bill. This is a crazy world where you

(01:07:46):
just go up to Wilcox. This is this is like
a fifty year old guy and just like, I'm sick.
It's completely it's gonna lie. He's not sick at all.
And then he's now in the transfer portal and he'll
be with Mario, so it'll be interesting. Maybe Bill's gonna
lie it. My take is that it's kind of like
Silicon Valley. Probably twenty thirty years ago when even the
government didn't know. There are no fucking rules. And what

(01:08:08):
has Bill always done push the rules? Why does he
always hate Park Avenue because they were the ones they
were like the government, he fucking hates that. He wants
to just let me cook. Well, the college football it's
you can do whatever you want.

Speaker 1 (01:08:21):
Yeah, he was always finding like the little.

Speaker 2 (01:08:23):
There are no little poles because there are no holes.
It's wide open.

Speaker 1 (01:08:26):
Yeah, yeah, that's really with Mendoza. It's something I'm gonna
have to watch, Like in that final weekend teams that
are already boy eligible with quarterbacks because I had no idea,
No one had any idea. The line didn't even move
that Mendoza was out, Like this wasn't announced during the week,
probably just sat out, know on's going the portal. Wilcox

(01:08:47):
then comes out four days ago and says Mendoza will
be back next year. But yeah, obviously he's not. He
and he went to Columbus High School in Miami, so
he's gone. That would make sense. But yeah, and that's
one to watch. They could be down to the third
string because their backup got hurt, so that that that
game versus UNLV. I don't know where UNLV's had at.
They were playing to go into a playoff. Now you

(01:09:09):
lose your coach, your OC is gone and be gone.
That's that's why would you take the Purdue job?

Speaker 2 (01:09:15):
Is that that much better than UNLV? In this nil
Era got paid. It's big.

Speaker 1 (01:09:19):
I assume it's just money.

Speaker 2 (01:09:20):
Uh that's probably give million bucks.

Speaker 1 (01:09:25):
Yeah. Like the John Summer is a really good coach
at Tulane. I think he's eventually gonna get an SEC job.
He was rumored to be going anywhere, and he actually
signed an extension with Tulane. He was asked like are
you going? Are you're going? He said, look, I don't know.
I want to stay. But if your newspaper offered another
newspaper offer, talking to the reporter offered you three times

(01:09:45):
as much money, you're you're probably gonna really consider it
and maybe take it. That's a lot of times that's
all it comes down to. So yeah, I I assume
that it's money. But that's a tough job, and you
can like you have to. The Ohio coach Tim Alvin
went down to Charlotte. You that, I mean, Charlotte has

(01:10:07):
not been good and there's more resources. You probably got
paid more. You're down in the South for like recruiting,
but the floor is so much lower. Like at Ohio.
You can field your team that's going to be decent.
You just won a MAC championship. The floor and you
can just flame out and that could happen. Ryan Walters
was a hot coordinator name and you know at Illinois

(01:10:28):
and helped that he had you know, all he did
was run cover one. He had three defensive backs playing
the NFL in one year. But he goes to Purdue.
They I mean, they just don't have the resources. And
then you're competing in the Big Ten and you get
and you're gone in a year or two, and then
where are you? I mean, so, I I mean odom is.

Speaker 2 (01:10:48):
He's not a he's like fifty years old, forty yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:10:51):
So it's not like he's just probably trying to get
as much money as he can. He's forty eight, and
then if it doesn't work out, it'll go be like
an coordinator at Arkansas so well. But yeah, those are
definitely interesting decisions. But I'm assuming that he's just a
money money decision.

Speaker 2 (01:11:06):
Okay, let's go to the state that's near and dear
to your heart with two teams that are a pretty
big deal in that state, both two of the bigger
NFL brands, The Eagles are on a night there went
away from the longest winning streak in the history of
the franchise. Yet this week got weird, and it got

(01:11:28):
weird fast when Brandon Graham basically admitted they don't like
each other anymore. And it's like, you can roll it
back all you want. You said what you said. You've
been with the team for literally fifteen years, you know,
And that was a big selling point. Remember when they
traded for Ajs, those guys were boys, and they're clearly
not anymore. And I from what I've heard, it's not
just that Jalen's a hit or mispasser. I think there's

(01:11:50):
some personality stuff and it kind of shows like I
bet on the Eagles in terms of they were my
pick just based on talent. You watch them, they're loaded
with talent. I mean they are the offensive lines awesome,
obviously adding Saquon, the receivers, the tight end. They're fucking
defensive players. I mean Jalen Carter, he might be a
wild card off the field, red flag when he is on.

(01:12:13):
I mean there's Larry Allen might with him. I mean
he's a special special talent. Cooper Dejen the rookie corner.
They have the stud But you know, you watch the Lions,
it's like, this is this unit. It's like Jesus, guys
love each other. Right. You watch the Chiefs and the Bills,
it feels like much more of a team. Then you
watch this squad. That's where this Tomlin five and a

(01:12:35):
half to me seems a little outrageous. It'd be one
thing if the Steelers were like a six and six team,
like they've been pretty good. I thought that Russell played
like his best game. Obviously Pickens wasn't playing, so the
lollipop throws in. He made a couple throws in the
red zone last week that was like, God, this is
kind of Seattle russy and I don't know how they

(01:12:56):
do it. But no team drafts pass rushers as well
as them. I mean they got random white guys coming
off the edge. You're like, who are these guys? And
then obviously TJ. Watt, I think Cam Hayward. I mean
you talk about a guy that rolled back the clock.
Every time I watch them, he looks like really good
for a guy that's thirty five, thirty six years old.
I kind of like the Steelers to win this game, honestly,

(01:13:16):
stucky definitely hammering them plus the points because I think
Tom is a dog the Eagles, and you'd have to agree,
like the Jalen there passing game is just off, and
to me it's him because he's not a great pocket passer,
so it's got to be the freelance plays outside the pocket,
and those are just going to be hit or missing.

Speaker 1 (01:13:32):
The NFL, Yeah, and under pressure is numbers creator, which
the Steelers can get.

Speaker 2 (01:13:39):
Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:13:39):
Taking Tomin as a dog and he's the most profitable
coach in NFL history against the spread as an underdog.
This year, they've been underdog five times. They've won all
five outright. So this is your classic Tomlin spot along
those lines. If you look at these Tomlin dog spots,
the under has hit almost just as high as a clip.
I like the under in this game. I think they're
they're kind of related. What happened. One of the reasons

(01:14:02):
why Tomlin his teams are so good as an underdog.
He gets them off. He's like a Rale Rock coach.
But he'll also play these games very conservatively, and I
mean that's his nature anyway. But he's gonna rely on
his defense. He's gonna rely on his special teams and
keep the game close, and then what happens. They wattle

(01:14:24):
strip somebody in the fourth quarter and then they'll get
a short field touchdown and win the game. Like that's
he just wants to keep the game when he knows
he's overmatched as an underdog, keep the game close, don't
lose it. Don't lose the turnover. They're the only team
in the NFL the last seven years it hasn't lost
a turnover battle in any season. They're one possession record
over the past ten years of the past the NFL.

(01:14:45):
So that, don't lose the game, don't turn it over.
I don't think they're gonna have a ton of success
on offense. The Eagles defense is peaking and it's and
it's real like they're young corners, the Fangio, it's a complexity.
They've really picked up on it. But the corners that
made the biggest difference. They're number one of the against
the deep pass. There's no pickens. That's been the best
form of the Steelers offense, the deep pass with Russell

(01:15:06):
is intermediary.

Speaker 2 (01:15:07):
And wait, you don't think Pickens is going to play
this week?

Speaker 1 (01:15:09):
No, I mean they said he was doubtful yesterday, so
I doubt it. I mean, they're in a good position
for the playoffs, they like, why push him? It sounds like,
and I believe they have the Chiefs and Ravens coming up,
which are bigger games in the grand scheme of things,
So I don't think that he does play. So and
the Eagles run defense has been really good and trending up,

(01:15:30):
so I don't think the Steelers is gonna have much
success offensively, and they're going to play it close to
the best. And but the Eagles are running as much
as any team in the NFL by a wide margin,
so clock's going to be running in this one. Neither
team's particularly fast. And uh yeah, the Steelers defense, the
run defense, I think can hold up against Barkley. They'll
show up, they'll be hyped up, they can get pressure

(01:15:51):
on Hurts and I'm just curious to see. The other
thing is the Eagles can't score in the first quarter,
which plays into the Steelers' hands. It's like, keep it close, right,
just make this a grinder and They've been like the
worst offense in the NFL. In the first quarter, they
can't score. Their script has been so bad I am
curious to watch, Like how does this Brown fall out
lay out on the field? Does it throw off the offense?

(01:16:13):
Are they trying to force balls to Brown to make
them They came out and they said we need to
get them the ball more so like they is it
gonna throw off? Like what they're trying to do, and
how that chemistry plays out throughout the game if he's
not getting the ball. They said they squashed in a meeting.
It'll be interesting to watch. But yeah, you can't go
wrong with Tomlin as a dog and usually that's correlated

(01:16:34):
with the under which I like.

Speaker 2 (01:16:35):
Here I saw like a social clip of Manginie saying
like that's insane to say that out loud, like Kellen
Moore just said that. My pushback would be once they
work to get everything settled, Clearly they're going to try
to feed their guy. So whether you say it or not,
I think Mike Tomlin and Trell Austin with the mink

(01:16:56):
of Fitzpatrick going over the defensive strengths and weakness as
a game plan would go they're going to force feed
this guy. I don't need to hear Kellen Moore Sirianni talk.
The other thing is, you know, kind of nerdy football.
How about the kicker matchup here? One guy is turned
into Justin Tucker two point zero and the other guy
is not very reliable right now, Well, Jake Elliott looks

(01:17:17):
like Jake Moody right now.

Speaker 1 (01:17:19):
I mean one of the biggest reasons the Steels.

Speaker 2 (01:17:22):
You're like getting a close game. I mean, you gotta
like the Steelers. One guy he's a kick away from
Are they gonna start booing them at the link?

Speaker 1 (01:17:30):
Yeah, he has lost his kickers. They lose, they lose
it mentally. It's gone, at least for that season. And yeah,
Elliott looks even his makes look shaky, and he was
automatic last year. But if you look at the division,
Steelers are ten and three, Ravens are eight and five,
the Bengals are five and eight, the Browns are three
and ten. Everyone's lost close games. They're a lot kicker

(01:17:51):
problems except the Steelers. The Steelers have had arguably the
best kicker in the NFL this year in Boswell, in
one of the toughest stadiums by the way to kick
in with some of those swirling wins, especially on one
end of the field. But the Ravens I think have
lost their games by a total of twenty two points
and in their losses, and I think that's the amount

(01:18:14):
of I think Tucker's messed like twenty one worth of
field goals twenty one points in those games. The Browns,
I mean every week they could they finally cut them.
But Hopkins, I'm look at Hopkins last week missed a
couple of field goals against the Steelers. The Bengals, I mean,
big Pherson was shaky and now he's hurt, like it matters,
and especially with the Steelers who want to play these

(01:18:35):
close games, their kicking has been so much superior to
everyone in the division, which might end up making the
difference when it's all said and done, and get them,
get them, put the Ravens in the wild card, which
not many people thought coming into the season, but yeah,
that could end up. That's something to watching this game.
Tomlin would love for this to turn into a field

(01:18:57):
goal battle where they would have the edge.

Speaker 2 (01:19:00):
I know he's injured right now, but the Chiefs post
Tyreek Hill have played in a lot of tight games.
Bucker's been pretty good for him. I mean, that's it mass.

Speaker 1 (01:19:08):
One another again. You look at why these teams if
the best teams, the best one possession teams are the
past ten years of the Chiefs and the Steelers. And
part of that is coaching. Part of that is you
don't turn it over, and part of that is having
a reliable kicker. You're going to be in a close game,
one possession game. You go kicker, Like, what's gonna happen

(01:19:30):
with the Chiefs Mahomes, They're down, Mahomes has the ball late,
he's going to find a way to score, to get
in the scoring range, and then Bucker is going to
make the field goal. Now it's a little shaker. Now
he's got matthew Wright who's been pretty good, but he's
not Bucker who And so I mean the Chiefs luck
this year is we talked about this La like you

(01:19:53):
you want it to end? These games, don't They don't
mean that much. I mean, I guess you can get
it on the field, but man, every week they went
on the last play the game on something crazy.

Speaker 2 (01:20:00):
Well think about this if you're the Chiefs, you know,
I think the Steelers mainly fall in this category. Two.
If you're going to score, let's say feels like most
games two touchdowns and kick, let's just give you a
conservative two field goals. That is six points in field
goals and two points and extra points that's eight points.
So if you were to miss an extra point and

(01:20:20):
a field goal, that's the difference between eight and four. Well,
if you're only scoring eighteen to twenty points, that's a
huge points. Yeah. So it's like they are relying especially this.
You know, when Bucker is healthy and the Steelers like,
that's a big deal. I win nineteen to seventeen. Well,
if that fucker misses his forty eight yard field goal,
we lose the game.

Speaker 1 (01:20:41):
Yeah. And the Steelers too, like an important part of
them getting like home games in a playoffs and cold
and weather in that stadium in particular, like Boswell's unfazed
by it. There are teams that won't attempt a fifty
five yard field goal in that stadium on one side,
especially if there's any weather, they'll punt. I mean for

(01:21:01):
a long time, Justin Tucker led that stadium in fifty
plus yard field goals. Didn't even play for the Steelers,
And you know, Boswall's clearly overtaking him now. But that's
how hard that stadium is to kick. You get own
playoff games. That's a major edge, like you said in
the game, where two field goals could be a third

(01:21:22):
of your points.

Speaker 2 (01:21:24):
Okay, Bill's Lions. I think it's easy to look at
that game, right. I think you can look at a
twofold understandable. They just clinched the division. Coming across the
Rams have been kind of shitty. All of a sudden,
it looked like the Rams team that we saw at
the end of the year last year. They were clicking.
Stafford was humming, and they jumped on Merley and then

(01:21:45):
Josh Allen turned in, Josh Allen, we got a game
down the stretch. I think this is one of your
feels like one of your classic spots where everyone overreacts
a little bit and hammers the Lions. I mean the
Lions early on in that game against the Packers, you
had Jamal Adams a round out there on defense. I
haven't looked at their injury report in the last day,

(01:22:06):
but like they have a lot of guys that are
legitimately injured, so I just think this is this is
a spot where everyone thinks the Lions or you know,
the seven Patriots, and obviously offensively they're pretty incredible, but
I do think this this defense, it's one thing. You know,
the Packers just play so shitty sometimes early in games.

(01:22:30):
I thought they lost that Thursday night game in the
first half when they had seven points, because in the
second half they calmed down, they were scoring at will.
It's like, well, if you fucking guys just had thirteen
points in the first half, you're not stressing this game. Instead,
it's like touchdown, touch down. You went back and forth
in the second half. It's like you lost it by
scoring seven points against freaking Jamal Adams in the first half.

(01:22:52):
It was if I'm Aaron Glenn, like that is my resume.
Just watch the first half with these random cats against
the Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night football, because like
I like the Bills here plus two and a half,
I do too.

Speaker 1 (01:23:06):
I'm waiting to see if there's a three that pops.
So I'm gonna wait. There's no sense in jumping in
now at two and a half it goes to two whatever.
It's much more detrimental than if you bet two and
ethnic and you can get a three. Uh this look.
I love the Rams last week. It was just a
really good spot and Stafford was just on fire against
the zone, which he tends to be. Bills are zone heavy,

(01:23:29):
don't plan that's what you want to do against golf.
If you play his numbers against Man, the lines offensive
numbers mentioned this in previous weeks against Man. If you
look at them compared to all other teams you have,
you need like extra piece of paper if you graft
them out. They're so much higher zone there like against
zone there like the seventh eighth best offense in the NFL.
Bills predominant zone team. Now they're gonna probably down one

(01:23:52):
one of their starting corners in Douglas. It's had a
down year, but that'll still be somewhat impactful. But yeah,
I think that the Bills their offense. We talk about
the Lions offense indoors, the Bills offense with Josh Allen indoors.
I mean, this is a team that scored five They've
scored thirty plus five straight games. They played a bunch
of those games outdoors, and they haven't had all their

(01:24:14):
weapons this week. Fully healthy Kincaid full participant, Coleman full participant,
they have everyone back. So this offense, if you look
historically Josh Allen indoors. This includes his loss last week,
in which they scored forty two points nine to two
and one against the spread eighty one percent, covering by

(01:24:34):
nine points per game. And if you and Allen is
an underdog or favored of less than a field goal
twenty seven, fourteen and two against the spread sixty six percent.
And this is when you want to fade these teams
that have a ninety plus percent win percentage, they look invincible.
Teams with a win percentage north of ninety percent in
the month of December overall twenty one, forty eight and

(01:24:56):
two against the spread, thirty percent against the spread since
two thousand three. But I just think this Lion's defense,
when you account for all the injuries, they are so
ripe to get just absolutely shredded. They're playing very aggressive
to make up for some of the injuries. They're blitzing on.
They're playing a ton of man, single high go back,

(01:25:19):
and look at the who the Lions have played this year.
Name me an elite quarterback with a fully healthy offense.
Haven't faced one. I mean, you look at the Lions.
Lions schedule. They've played now Jordan Love.

Speaker 2 (01:25:35):
You don't count Love last week.

Speaker 1 (01:25:37):
He's like in somewhat there. I mean, but the Packers
put up what did they put up thirty when he
was healthy? But I don't think he's not in the
Allen tier quite yet, you know. But they played the Bears,
the Colts, the Jags with Mac Jones. They played Stroud
when he didn't have any of his receivers, and they
really should have lost that game. They played a hurt Love.

(01:25:59):
They played the Titans with Mason Rudolph, the Vikings with
Donald He's playing well, but he's not elite, and the
Vikings put up thirty, you know, so you look back,
they haven't had to face an elite I guess you
can go back to Stafford week one. But there's all
his offensive line and Niko got hurt his offensive They
were down to like their sixth center, and Hutchinson would

(01:26:20):
had like eight sacks in the second half. The Bills
offense fully healthy, and the way that the Lions are
playing right now, you can get away with that against
mid tier quarterbacks bad quarterbacks, but with you know, your
single high playing man trying to blitz Josh Allen you're
gonna get picked apart here. And also you don't want
to play man against Josh Allen, he especially indoors. That's

(01:26:43):
where I think the Bills at the edge of the
Lions is Allen third downs, can run and get the
first downs, which golf can't, and against man, his legs
are super important. So I think it's would be a
really close game. I think it's closer to a point,
So give me the points. With Josh Allen indoors with
a fully healthy offense against Lion's defense could be a
little offier today, will be a big on the injury front,

(01:27:05):
like McNeil could be back. Could get a couple of
guys on the defensive line. Not sure about Reader, but
they're heard at linebacker and I think the secondary is vulnerable.
I think the Bills bounce back here, a really important
game for them if they want home field. They have
the game up on the Chiefs lost last week. Chiefs
don't have an easy schedule down the stretch. They'll need
this one instead of the lines. I think it'll be

(01:27:27):
good game, but just give me the points.

Speaker 2 (01:27:28):
Okay. Now to a team Sunday Night Football. They've won
four straight games now two of them again been against
Kyler and the Cardinals, one of them was the Jets,
and another was an impressive win against the forty nine
ers who had some injuries. This team at home, I
just looked at the weather. It's it's supposed to rain
every day except Sunday, but it's cold, windy. The place

(01:27:51):
is rocking to me. They basically got to win two
of their last four. It almost feels like they would
be a lock to be in the playoffs. They still
have the but these next two games against and they
finish with the Rams or against the Packers and the Vikings.
So if they win one of these next two games,
I feel pretty good about Seattle's chances to be in

(01:28:11):
the playoffs. This is a big spot for Jordan Love.
On the road, it's just crazy environments. Every time I
want to trust them, Like it gets back to the
first half, it's like, well they start slow and then
they start humming. Now, granted, like you said that that
Detroit defense, It's like, what are we talking about last?
This is a little different animal against the defensive coordinator

(01:28:33):
that's gotten guys back and it's done a really good job.
I kind of like Seattle underdog at home. Now, I
get it, this isn't the lob Seattle Seahawks, but that's
that's to me, seems like money line value there. Like
I mean, this Packer team, I've liked them, but the
more and more like the season has gone on, like, yeah,

(01:28:54):
maybe they're kind of in the same spot as last year,
and they're maybe they're a year away from kind of
getting closer to where they want to go, and this
is more of a year like they might win a
playoff game, they might be one and done, but they're
not really a true Super Bowl contender. Not that Seattle
is either, But what the hell is the difference. I'm
taking the home team in a cold weather environment against
you know, a young quarterback that you know just gives

(01:29:15):
you bad halfs. He can he can turn it on
for a half and look like Aaron Rodgers, but you
just can't afford to win some of these games when
you're fucking scoring no points.

Speaker 1 (01:29:24):
Yeah, I don't mind the Sealks here. I want to
see I Kenneth Walker plays. I think he'll be important
in this game.

Speaker 2 (01:29:30):
Now. I get they were playing you know, the Cardinals,
but he's.

Speaker 1 (01:29:32):
Yeah, but it'll help to have Walker too. I you know,
the Seahawks are interesting team because I think if you
look at Gino's splits, he's so much better indoors and
cushing environments. And we go back to that Atlanta game,
I mean all season, the offense is a better suited

(01:29:55):
to be an indoor Go to the Lions game. I mean,
they were scoring it will and they had offensive line
injuries in that game, and they were a metcalfe fumble
away from that game being like thirty five. All so
their offense is built for like to be an indoor team,
and because they can't, they don't run the ballica they
have offensive line injuries, like Gino can move around where
they have, they have good speed at you know, shifty receivers,

(01:30:17):
you have Metcalf can go deep. So their offense is
not built of like play where they play at this
time of the year. So maybe they won't be hurt
like by going into the playoffs and having to go
on the road and playing you know, if they had
to go play Minnesota or Detroit. Something worth donting because
I think their defense can play anywhere, and but their
offense doesn't look as good at home. So that that's

(01:30:38):
I don't mind the under here too. I think it's
like high leverage game. The Seattle's offensive line still has
some issues, their offense doesn't look good at home, but
the defense is I still think undervalue. Their last two
games have gone over but if you go back to
the Jets game, there was a pick six, a kick
return for a touchdown, two muffed kickoffs that led to points,
and then last week Kylot throws two that lead to

(01:31:00):
two short field touchdowns. This Seahawks defense is legit. And
it's McDonald. We've always talked about him. He's made isn't
the necessary adjustments schematically to fit his team, But not
only that, he's changed, He's fundamentally changed his team, and
a lot some of it's just health. Defensive line was
so banged up middle part of the year and the secondary.

(01:31:22):
I mean, you have multiple starters, but now so now
not only are they healthy, but he changed some things.
He got ray Sean Jenkins out of the lineup, who
was terrible. Put Kobe Bryant in a free safety since
Week seven, been a huge plus. That big, big upgrade
of free safety also allows you to do more with
your now healthy corners, linebackers. I mean, he was constantly shifting, cutting, trading,

(01:31:43):
getting the guys that he needed in there. Linebacker a
pretty important position in how he wants to disguise things
more so than other schemes. He got his guys in
there that he felt were the best fit. Coming out
of the buy. It looks like he was right. Now
they're defending the run well. Their secondary is healthy, he
upgraded free safety. You have more flexibility with your corners
who are now healthy, so that whole unit is trending up,

(01:32:07):
and I think they'll be ready here. Another thing to
watch is the Packers could get let me see if
there's an update that would help the under is the
Packers secondary is their corners in particular are not really
good when there's no gyr Auxander. But if he goes
a second straight day of full participation, that helps them

(01:32:30):
a lot. That allows that will allow them to do
more things for an aggressive defense and will obviously be
important for Metcalf. So you could get Alexander here, which
kind of upgrades the Green Bay defense. So I don't
mind taking the home dog, but I also kind of
like the under as well.

Speaker 2 (01:32:48):
I mean, there's a decent chance we get this game
in a month, right as the three to six. Yep, Yeah,
because the Packers are I mean, I think are pretty entrenched.
I feel pretty confident they're going to be the six, right,
They're not going to be the seven, and now it's
pretty tough after that Lions lost to be the to
be the five, right given that, Whoever, however it shakes

(01:33:10):
out between Minnesota and Detroit ends up the one or
two and the five, and then the Eagles end up
the one or two and Seattle. I guess the Rams
we're recording this before Thursday night technically still win the division,
but so you could.

Speaker 1 (01:33:25):
Yeah, the Packers are if they they're like ninety if
they're ninety eight percent to get in right now.

Speaker 2 (01:33:31):
Like the playoff, they're a playoff team, I mean they're in, yeah,
and they're Vikings, Lions and Green Bay are in. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (01:33:38):
Vikings probably gonna be your five, Packers or six, and yes,
Seattle is probably going to be your three. I mean,
the Bucks have a really easy schedule, so maybe they
could end up jumping them. But maybe the Commanders could
jump the Packers, I guess, but uh.

Speaker 2 (01:33:59):
I think manager the leaking oil. We'll have to see
how they look this weekend, because I could see them
start losing some games.

Speaker 1 (01:34:06):
Yeah, I mean that. You gotta remember the Commanders have
an easy game this week, but then they have Eagles.
Well then they also they have the Falcons at home
than the Cowboys, so they could finish with ten ten
wins pretty easily, even though I do think they're leaking oil.
So but I think the Packers will eventually end up

(01:34:26):
with the six. So yeah, this is most likely to
be a rematch. But if the Seahawks win this game.
If the Seahawks lose this game, yeah, then again the
divisions back on the winner to the This will be
out the day after. But whoever won the forty forty
nine ers be right back in it. They beat the Rams,

(01:34:46):
that the Rams win it, they're right there. So yeah,
this is a huge game for the Seahawks and their
chances at the division because they host the Vikings next,
and then they close and then they get that they're
at the Bears on a short week, which is not

(01:35:06):
an easy spot, and then they close at the Rams.
So huge swing game for the Seawks.

Speaker 2 (01:35:13):
Before I get Jetty or any other games, any other
games you like, you like a little Raider money line
upset against the Atlanta Falcons at home or is that
a little too bold?

Speaker 1 (01:35:21):
I gotta see who's playing quarterback. They're saying, oh Conum'm like,
I don't know what's going on with that game. I
mean the Falcon. I don't think Coustins is fully healthy
right now, So yeah, why not? I did play the
Chargers minus two and a half, like you can find
like a minus one twenty out there. I know Herbert
has an ankle. I think we'll be all right. McConkie's playing.
Bucks run as much zone as any team in the league.

(01:35:41):
Herbert number one quarterback against zone, is the number one
offense against zone. And the Bucks also don't have any
safeties and Antoine Winfield and all Pro safety is out,
so I like that matchup. Bucks also been getting lucky.
I mean, they're probably gonna win that division. But if
you look, they're five wins this year. Their last five
wins Panthers and ot should have lost, Raiders, Giants with

(01:36:03):
the veto, Saints with Rattler, and Eagles without two months ago,
Eagles without all their receivers and their offensive lineman. That's
their last five wins. Opponents are also sixty percent on
field goals. They've had twenty one fumbles, lost only five
of them, so, and they've been really good in the
red zone like a little two good Chargers red zone

(01:36:23):
d is elite, and so I think this is a
good matchup for the Chargers to bounce back, especially with
mconkey in the lineup and then the ugliest one. I
bet the Panthers is a favorite minus two and a half,
minus one twenty it's going up to three. This is
a horrible spot for the Cowboys season. Basically ended your

(01:36:44):
more offensive line injuries, you lost over shown short week,
gone on the road to play Carolina. They could come
out super flat here. Carolina still cares, They're playing hard.
Bryce Young looks so much better and the only thing
that the Cowboys do well is to get pressure. Panthers
have one of the best offensive lines in terms of
pass direction, and Bryce Young under pressure has been really good.

(01:37:06):
They easily could have beat the Eagles, Cheats and Bucks
three straight weeks. You know, a drop pass a bad review.

Speaker 2 (01:37:14):
Panthers are hot, bro, They're hot. They're the hottest losing
team in the league right now.

Speaker 1 (01:37:18):
And Cooper Rosh has been metrically He's been almost if
you just look at EPA plus complete centers over explanation,
almost as bad as Drew Locke since he took over,
and over that time, Bryce Young statistically been like average,
which is so much better than he's been and then
like big time throw rate, he's the top five. He's
hanging in there, he's smiling, looks like he's having fun.

(01:37:40):
He's actually like yelling at the guys like it's a
whole different person. Canalis like fixed his footwork and he
just got confidence. He needed a couple of games playing
well to just psychologically be okay in the pocket. And
their defense is a bit underrated. It's still really bad,
but they got healthier, Like you get wanting back, you
get a bunch. They were so beat up early in
the season. So I like the Panthers as a favorite,

(01:38:01):
as crazy as that sounds me, I still think they're undervalue.
That covered five straight.

Speaker 2 (01:38:05):
I like that, stucky. Well, let's watch the Panthers stay hot,
less enjoy army Navy, and uh, we got a we
got a good Sunday coming up, so we only got
so many of these left, so we got a really.

Speaker 1 (01:38:16):
Seven weekends after anyone.

Speaker 2 (01:38:18):
I don't want to I don't even want to hear
that I don't even want. That includes playoffs.

Speaker 1 (01:38:22):
Yeah, I mean this is week fifteen, so after this
sixteen seventeen eighteen Wildcard Divisional Conference super Bowl. So while
you're listening to this, we still have eight left, so
I don't want to short change anyone. It goes quick,
so enjoy, Enjoy every bet and every game that you
have left.

Speaker 2 (01:38:40):
Talk to you soon, A sucky Hi brother.

Speaker 1 (01:38:45):
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3 & Out - Matthew Stafford & the Rams out-duel Brock Purdy & San Francisco 49ers on TNF

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