3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Bucs, Alabama-Georgia

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming weekend in both college football and the NFL. They dive into the biggest matchups, key storylines, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. From Saturday’s slate of massive college games to Sunday’s NFL action, they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. What is going on everybody? How are we doing?
Hopefully everyone's doing great. Obviously we had no reaction to

(00:24):
Seattle beating Arizona. I don't know. I'm recording this on Wednesday.
I just recorded with Stucky. So we basically went over
a huge slate of games on Saturday, I mean, Bama, Georgia,
Penn State, Oregon, TCU issue. We talked a bunch of
gambling for the college games, and obviously a pretty good slate.

(00:45):
On Sunday we have our first international games. So football
starts bright and early, so buckle up. I'm probably at
the Ryder Cup if you're listening to this, maybe having
a few. I saw the beer prices for the Ryder Cups,
like twenty dollars michelob ultras. I'm like, what kind of
scam is this? These prices in New York are outrageous.
But yeah, so it'll just be me and Stucky today.

(01:07):
That'll be the game plan. You guys know the drill.
Subscribe if you listen on Collins Feed, make sure you
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a little earlier this week, Stucky, my main man. We're
having a rough week. Is Ravens got curb stomped by
the Lions in front of the country. The forty nine
ers arguably their best player towards ACL for I consider

(02:36):
it the third time they call it a partial tear
in high school. But it's just I got Bosa falling
apart at the seams. Stucky. Just got to keep our
head high and keep on swinging.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
Forty nine ers and injuries, it's insane. But yeah, Ravens
look rough. Like I mentioned this last week, they need
to get healthy. I mean like Matabuque they need him
and Dan Noi they need him. They're not able to
get any pressure right now now. Before even la game,
they allowed five point eight yards per rush. Before this game,
when Matabugi was off the field, they were allowing five

(03:06):
point eight yards per rush with them three point eight.
The rookies, the depth pieces on the defensive line are
not playing well, but they're playing like three rookies like
Starks Mike Green that the defensive end Buchan and the
linebacker like they're they're just not playing really well. And
then offensively the guards are a problem, but they need

(03:26):
Likely back, they need Likely recuard. Like that's how the Ravens'
offense hums and their offensive really hasn't been the problem,
but like it didn't look as smooth as usually does
last week, but that's how they create mismatches. And with that,
so getting Likely back. So those two that, like just
the defenses and the same are now the offense isn't
the same right now. We'll see what the injury report

(03:47):
looks like later in the week and if the Chiefs
get Worthy back because they're clearly missing him. I mean,
they averaged four yards per play against the Giants, and
Mahomes did not look did not look great. They had
like four or five turnover worthy plays. He threw it
backwards a couple of times, like a couple of them
could have been Giants touchdowns.

Speaker 1 (04:06):
Was a pretty incredible play for him to get that fumble, Yes.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
But he was the one who caused it. If Collinsworth
going on and on about great, well how about not
don't throw it backwards where there's a chance the other
team returns of a touchdown. But yeah, that's a huge game.
I don't think I could play it either way at
two and a half without more injury certainty. But whatever

(04:30):
team loses that game. Look, the Bills are three now
of an easy schedule, The Chargers are three and zero
have a pretty easy schedule. The Ravens already lost to
the Bills. You're probably not getting the one seed in
the AFC.

Speaker 1 (04:44):
Oh well, you're not no chance any.

Speaker 2 (04:47):
Injuries and casts and win like ten to eleven in
a row, which it's that would become a pipe dream
at that point. So two desperate teams in Kansas City,
that one should be good. But I don't have anything
there any.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
I think the problem would be, you know, the Chiefs
have a bigger problem that you know, the Chargers would
be so far out in front, and you know Harbus's
proven he win thirteen games. I think the problem for
the Ravens would I think we feel pretty confident they'll
settle the ship and win the division. But all of
a sudden, you're the three seed, hell the culture the
four seed. You start having to go on the road.

(05:21):
We saw last year you know. I mean, they lost
to the Chiefs a couple of years in the AFC
Championship game, but there's nothing like having home playoff games.
You start going on the road in that second round.
I mean, that's a mother of a matchup against either
Josh Allen or Jim Harbaugh. It's like you're gonna be
a dog in that situation. That doesn't mean you can't
win them. We've seen, you know, Kyle Shanahan and good
teams go on the road and win. McVeigh could have

(05:42):
won a road game. The Ravens would be capable of healthy,
but it's very challenging.

Speaker 2 (05:47):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (05:48):
Yeah, the defenders missing those two guys, I mean it
was the guys they replaced them with might have been
in Ravens jerseys. They did not look like Ravens players.

Speaker 2 (05:58):
Yes, yeah, they need some other guys to step up
even when they get those two back healthy. But they're
obviously uber important as two Pro bowlers. And yeah, the
Chiefs offense still isn't the same. I mean, maybe we'll
be when Worthy and Rights come back. With the offensive
line still isn't great. The left side of the offense
line still hasn't been solved. Right tackle, tailors, still lots

(06:20):
of penalties. He can still be beat. So yeah, the
Chiefs offense, I mean Mahomes has thrown it down field
more like his A dot is back up over nine.
It was like six point nine and seven the last
two years. But his yards per attempt six point three,
completion percentage fifty nine percent. I mean those are career lows.
Last year he was at sixty seven percent. So yeah,

(06:43):
that that offense still has issues. So we'll see whoever
lose this game. It's going to be a lot more
questions asked.

Speaker 1 (06:50):
Okay before we dive into some NFL. I mean this
is a pretty incredible college slate. Oh uh, you know Bama, Georgia,
lsu Ole miss TCUASU. To me, he's a little bit
of a sleeper, like really good game on the on
the dock at Penn State. Oregon is fantastic. I mean,
I think I don't know where you stood on this,
but I saw a lot of people like this could
be a little bit of a down transition year for Oregon.

(07:12):
I mean the cow quarterback transferred. I think because he realized,
like I'm not starting over more and more has been
awesome and obviously they recruit so well. Washington Ohio State.
I mean, Washington in this day and age, you have
so much player turnover. But I mean they were in
the National Championship a couple years ago when Jed you know,
had Arizona as one of the better programs in the country.
I mean, given what I mean, Arizona was good. I mean,

(07:34):
that's pretty crazy what he accomplished. So he's clearly a
good coach who's worked for Harbaugh and Belichick and mcdagh.
I guess let's just start with the main event. I
would consider Bama Georgia. Again, it's hard to this isn't
the NFL. So it's like last year they beat the
shit out of them. I know they came back, but
they were up twenty eight to nothing or whatever. I mean,
their quarterback is different and he played a huge role

(07:57):
that that game by Milroe. If you just watch the
first half and you'd be like, this is the best
player in the country. You're gonna be the number one
overall pick. And obviously you know he's not that. But
I don't know. I mean at Georgia between the hedges,
Kaylin Dubor, like, I watched a little bit of them
over the last couple of weeks, they've definitely settled the ship.
Oh yeah, and kind of got it back. And they

(08:18):
clearly have you know, everyone hammered. Their offensive line is good,
they have good skill guys, and obviously their secondaries talented.
What do you make of Georgia, I mean, you're getting
three points at Bama this game after the Florida State game,
would have felt like Bama would be getting a touchdown.
So it's it's definitely come back to earth a little
bit kind of a stay away for me, I just
because I don't quite trust Bama after that Florida State thing,

(08:39):
but that might just be an outlier game for him.

Speaker 2 (08:41):
Yeah, it's it's telling. Both defenses I think are definitely
a step I've taken a step back from like what
we're used to with Alabama and Georgia, Like they don't
have just as many dominant game wreckers up the front.
And you saw that with Georgia against Tennessee and their
second there isn't playing that well like Tennessee. Georgia. Kirby

(09:04):
has shut down Tennessee every time they ever played, and
like never they never cleared seventeen points until this year
and Georgia arguably got lucky UH to win that game.
They got that fourth down time the two point conversion,
so they usually could have lost that game. But that's
the only data point we have. The other games they
don't show. They didn't show anything. The offense obviously had

(09:25):
a lot more life than they showed, but Kirby never
shows anything in those games. He's oh and fifteen against
the spread as a favorite of thirty eight or more
in his career. So we just have that one game
where their defense didn't look great, their offense came to light.
Whereas Alabama, Yes, I agree, like Todd Simpsons has been
playing really well the past two weeks. The defense, the
efforts there, like that game against Florida State, like it
was bad.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
What was that Georgia stat again, when he's a favorite.

Speaker 2 (09:47):
Oh and fifteen against the spread UH as a favorite
of thirty eight or more points, Like, they just show nothing.
They like they go cook super vanilla? You have?

Speaker 1 (09:57):
Is that the defensive coach in them? Like?

Speaker 2 (09:59):
You know?

Speaker 1 (09:59):
Because I feel like off defensive coaches would keep the
pedal of the medal and score sixty seventy points.

Speaker 2 (10:03):
Who run like there was a game against Kent State
where Kent State was like dropping eight, just playing rush
three drop eight, and he was running like just this.
He ran this like mesh play, which you wouldn't do
against drop eight. He ran this mesh play like eleven
times in a row with who's stetson? Bennett, Like they

(10:25):
ran it like ten times in a row. He just
wanted to like work on this, like.

Speaker 1 (10:28):
Can you see him in the headset to the OC
again again?

Speaker 2 (10:33):
So yeah, they don't really show anything, which clearly showed.
So their offense looked a lot better now, Ty Simpsons
looked great, Like Clean's ball, his ball, who looked spectacular.
He's been accurate because he looked really bad against Florida State,
but it was against Uel Monroe and then Wisconsin, you know,
with their backup quarterback down a bunch of starters and
a bad team that just terrible lost got blown out

(10:56):
at home by Maryland.

Speaker 1 (10:57):
So Dorothy coming in from the top rope.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
Yep, seriously, But can we really trust Alabama yet? I
don't know. This is a game. I think it's like
because the market's been going bouncing back and forth, this
is a game. If it's like you get a two
and a half on Georgia, you take it. To get
a three and a half on Alabama, you take it.
Georgia hasn't lost a home game in regulation since twenty sixteen,

(11:25):
which is insane. They lost one game in overtime in
twenty nineteen, they haven't lost it home since then. Interesting enough,
they haven't beat Alabama at home since two thousand and three,
but they haven't played in Athens since Kirby got there
in twenty sixteen, so this will be the first meeting there.
So yeah, I I will say, like the quarterbacks that

(11:48):
give Alabama and quarterbacks and offenses they give Alabama and
Georgia issues are the ones like Florida State, Vanderbilt with
the running quarterbacks. You saw that with Milroe last year.
You saw that with Alabama against Florida State, against Vanderbilt
last year. Oklahoma they ran that option offense last year

(12:10):
and beat Alabama. So with Jackson Arnold so like, But
that's not really the offenses here. So the defenses might
have well look a little bit better. But I don't
have a strong feel either way. But if you can
find a two and a half on Georgia, I'd take it.
And if you wanted to take the three and a
half on Alabama. I wouldn't blame you, but just mainly

(12:33):
looking forward to watching that one, learning learning more about
both teams, because it's just like two data points neither
looked great for various reasons the real data points, so
we'll we'll definitely get a better feel for who those
teams are after Saturday between.

Speaker 1 (12:48):
I remember two years ago being I was shopping with
my wife because we just moved into this house and
we needed some like furniture, some like grown up furniture.
And I was at the furniture store and they had
a television and I just sat there and watched. It
was at night, and it was LSU versus Old Miss
two years ago at Old Miss, and it was an
incredible game and I can't remember the final score, but.

Speaker 2 (13:12):
Something.

Speaker 1 (13:12):
Yeah, it was like She's like we got to go.
I'm like I'm not moving this. This is incredible TV.
And that was Jade Daniels, Bryant Thomas and Malik Neighbors
and the irony is a couple of years later like
LSU's d and the defense was terrible. Now their defense
is looks pretty good, but offensively, I think we got
some question marks and Ole Miss. I'll be honest, I

(13:32):
haven't watched that much of them, just because I mean,
you talk about playing nobody, so it's you know, the
data points for them coming into this game now based
on the previous couple of years. You know, they have talent,
you know they have good coaching. Lane was bitching and
moaning about like if this game was at LSU, you
know this thing would be at night, but here they
put it during the day, which you know a couple
of years ago, that was a big advantage for them
playing at night. You know, defensively, so far, just falling

(13:54):
their scores doesn't feel like Ole Miss is exactly a juggernaut.
So uh, you know, I I want to take LSU here,
but uh, I don't know. I mean I don't really trust.
Like if their offense stalls out and you get into
a point where we know lank can score some points,
makes me a little nervous.

Speaker 2 (14:10):
Yeah. Look, I I have LSU to win the SEC.
I even took some I have some LSU to win
the national title. Feeling really good about that through three weeks,
but then you look back and you say, Okay, a
win at Clemson means nothing. They're horrendous they just got
They looked worse against Syracuse in a saved season spot

(14:34):
at home. They've also lost to Georgia Tech and then
you beat Florida, but you needed five picks and he's
still only one by ten and Florida. I mean, they
don't look great.

Speaker 1 (14:48):
So they're good on they're good on D.

Speaker 2 (14:50):
Yeah, the D is really good, playing hard, but the
offense does not look great. The Clemson offense does not
look great. So how much of that plays into the
LSU defense. I do believe the lc defense has significantly improved.
They're especially on the back end, but they had the
number one transfer portal class, so they brought in some guys.
They're they're definitely much more talented, But it is the
offense that's the question. The offensive line. The lost four

(15:12):
guys in the NFL, and they still don't have a
run game. The pass protection isn't as good, so can
you trust them here? Now? The Ole Miss defense has
taken an enormous step back. So, like I mean, last
year they were one of the best defenses in the
country and they lost a ton of talent guys who
are starting in the NFL right now from that team,

(15:34):
and they just haven't replaced it. The offensive line coordinators
the old Bama guy right, yep, Pete Golding dip. The
offense is offensive line is really it's not good either,
so that could be a problem. So I really just
don't know my first fifty five or fifty five is
a key number in college. I actually would look at
the under here because I do think the LCU offense

(15:55):
has real problems. I and that the Ole Miss offense
has been electric, but the offensive line is not good.
They haven't played any really good defenses. And this kid,
Chanderliss D two transfer who has taken over for Austin Simmons,
even he went to Farris State, I mean, what a
fine by a big time cliff and he won the

(16:15):
national title. And I mean Fairs State's a powerhouse in
D two. But he's been electric, but he hasn't seen
a defense like this, like the Arkansas defense is really
really really bad. So yeah, my first inclination, even though
we just talked about that fifty one to forty eight game,
is to look under because I just don't I wanted

(16:37):
the bat Alec too. I just don't have enough confidence
right at this moment based on what all the other
teams that they have beat have done. So yeah, it's
under or nothing. Should be a fun game though, And
and the best, the best storyline this is that you
just can't make this up. Is Lane Kiffin's daughter Landry,
who's in college, just posted did on her Instagram, like

(17:03):
a picture of her with I guess her new boyfriend,
Went Weeks, who's the star linebacker for LSU. So that
that's another layer to this. I'm sure Lane might have
I don't have a daughter, but I'm sure he spent
a couple extra hours trying to draw up someplace to
make Weeks look dumb out there trying to spin them

(17:25):
around a couple of times. So that's a just a
fun side story to this.

Speaker 1 (17:30):
I feel like a lot of people in the SEC
date people at other SEC schools like broad Powers. Now
granted it was high school, sweetheart, she was at Tennessee
when he's at Georgia where I come from. That's impossible
if you go to other schools, like it's a rap,
whether you're the star athlete or whether you're just Joe
Schmoe business student. Yet these people, it feels like this,
have normal relationships. You know the South better than me

(17:51):
the location, how do they get back and forth? Like
I get you can drive most places, but still it
seems it seems like a different world down there than
what I'm used to where people went to college and
like you just kind of eventually break. It's impossible to
date someone you know in a different town, let alone
different schools in different states. But it happens a lot
in the SEC.

Speaker 2 (18:12):
I think part of that is like there's I guess
it's like kind of cool that you can go visit
another college, and then there's maybe part of it's just
like I don't I don't want to be bothered by
any if you're a girl, I don't be bothered by
any guys at my school. I hate everyone here, and
then you have to paying someone else. I don't know

(18:32):
it is. It happens more often than you think though.

Speaker 1 (18:41):
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(20:06):
was just looking at you know, Penn State's played me,
you and the School of the Blind. Oregon in theory
had some people in their schedule, but it turned out
our rip Mike Gundy in Oklahoma State. I had a
buddy in the NFL that said he watched that tape
a couple of weeks ago and he was like, it's
one of the worst things I've ever seen. I can't
believe what I'm watching. You know, I have been scouting

(20:27):
for a long time. Oklahoma States had a lot of
NFL guys, and they look like a like a high
school team.

Speaker 2 (20:32):
For they're blowing out at home by Tulsa.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
Yeah, and even Oregon State. I mean nowadays with the NILS,
they should just become a you know, playing Montana in
Montana State in one double A, which I think feels inevitable,
which is sad because forever they tried and they got
fucked by the conference realignment. So it's like, it's not
like Oregon in theory they were playing some people, but
it turns out they did not. So it's it's hard.

(20:55):
Now we know both these teams are good, especially Penn
State coming into the season came out Penn State. I
think there is tangible pressure on this guy to win
one of these games, like if we're gonna take you seriously,
Like last year I had, I had pretty sizeable bet
on them against Notre Dame. I felt pretty good, obviously freakish,
you know, pass across his body. But at the same time, like,

(21:17):
in what world can I feel confident betting on this
team in big games until they win a big game?
So to me, I'm not touching them until they prove it,
and then I might back them. Because is it fair
to say, like, do you believe they have especially in
this landscape, do they have the talent to win the
national championship? The coaching, the players, and the whole thing.

Speaker 2 (21:36):
Yeah, I mean there's this year it is, there's no
clear cut.

Speaker 1 (21:40):
That's my point, David.

Speaker 2 (21:41):
There's like eight to ten teams that literally, like normally
there's like, all right, it's pretty much gonna be one
of these three to four, sometimes one to two that
are a cut above. This year, like especially with some
of these young quarterbacks. You could have some teams even
rise up some more, but there's like eight to ten
teams that are in that discussion this year, So yeah,
they certainly could win it all. Now, so I did think.

Speaker 1 (22:03):
There's more pressure on them in this game, right than
Oregon and Land in this spot. Yeah, there's especially he
beat him in the championship game what nine months ago?

Speaker 2 (22:11):
Yep. Now, I don't think Oregon is as good. They're
obviously super talented, but they went from a six year
senior quarterback and countless NFL guys. They also lost one
of their best receivers before the season started, and like,
Oregon has looked so much better than Penn State just
on the eye test. Neither has played anybody, but from
what I've heard is that Penn State has showed nothing,

(22:34):
which is smart because now, can you just turn it on,
We'll take them some time. But they've just gone super vanilla. Basically,
their season is a two game season and they just
need to pretty much win one and then they're in
the collegewall playoff. But they have Ohio State and they
have Oregon, and you have three cakewalks and then a
bye week and then Oregon. So there is no reason

(22:55):
to show anything. That's like the smart way to approach it,
and that's a huge advantage. I mean, Oregon went across country,
played Northwestern back played their arrival and then back again. Meanwhile,
Penn State, you say what you want about James Franklin,
he hasn't won these big games a lot of it.
A lot of the reason for that is because he
gets he clans up and then in these big moments.

(23:16):
And that's one of the things I'm afraid afraid about
because I did play Penn State minus three. But Landing
is really aggressive, and I mean you see this with Yeah,
he's got Dan Campbell to Campbell like he's gonna go
for it on fourth downs, and James Franklin gets too
conservative too often, so that that does scare me a bit.
But you have throw out what you want about James frankline.

(23:38):
You have two of the best coordinators in college football
who have a bye, so they have two weeks prepare,
but essentially they've had two months all summer they've been
preparing for this game. Unley Sha Wrinkles. You know they're
probably gonna run all or more. That was one of
the points of emphasis. So that is a big advantage

(23:58):
to me. I mean, they're probably the best ordinator duo
in college football. Cotal Nikki and Jim Knowles. Big advantage there.
You know, then you have the travel Oregon State. Oregon
played last week, and I just look, if you go
based on the YT test and you go based on
just the results this year, you would be like, all right,
I'm taking the points of the organ But before the season,
this spread would have been seven and a half or more.

(24:20):
So I'm sticking with my priory because I'm basically just saying, like, look,
Oregon has a brand new team. So they were like
pedal to the medal and they're like figuring out what
they have with more and so they're there and they're
way more talented than all the teams they played. So
obviously they looked great, but I still need this, like
Dante Moore has never won a big game in his life,
Like the quarterback experience. Now you're going to Happy Valley
at night, white out, Like that's that's way different. Their

(24:43):
best receivers a freshman, the true freshmen, their best tight ends,
a true freshmen. Like you're asking a lot of these
guys going up against a really good defense, and I
need to see it more. Hasn't been under pressure, he
hasn't had to make like tight window throws. And this
is a guy that still really struggled anytime he got
in now it's gonna look a lot better at Organ,
but Ucla whenever he played like a real power for opponents.
So yeah, I mean, I think the Penn State prior

(25:07):
has the more reliable quarterback at this moment, the better
coordinator collection, the better running backs. Their receivers are much improved.
Like that's probably a wash, and I would take the
Penn State defense over the Oregon defense right now. So
I think this is just you're getting Penn State cheap
in a good spot. They haven't showed anything, and I'll
make Dante more prove it to me that him and

(25:29):
you know, these young kids on this Oregon offense who
haven't really played in a big game like this can
get it done on the road. So I did play
Penn State. I could look foolish, but I'm trusting more
in my priors and basically just saying like I don't
really care what I saw these first three weeks against
you know, little sisters of the poor. For each three,
all three teams throwing the bye week throwing like Penn
State holding stuff back the more experienced team at home.

(25:53):
I did roll with Penn State minus three.

Speaker 1 (25:55):
Well, if Penn State wins this game, then their season
again shifts to a two game season where they can
lose to Ohio State. But if then they beat them
in the conference championship game, would they'd probably be a
top four seed. What do you think? Yep, So it's
like that they would. Just now, you would rather lose
to Ohio State and then win the conference championship than
the inverse because it might cost you a buye, which

(26:16):
I guess we're gonna find out this year exactly how
that works. If a situation like this place, because you go, like,
is one game more important than the other? I don't know,
how do you think that would play out?

Speaker 2 (26:25):
Yeah, it depends on like what the other like how
those other teams look at There's so many variables.

Speaker 1 (26:30):
But if they're both like you know, eleven and one
going into the game.

Speaker 2 (26:34):
Yeah, if they win, I don't I think it wouldn't
matter because like, if you lose this home game, but
then you get a win at Ohio State, like that
kind of watch through. If you win this, you lose
at High State, everyone's gonna give you a pass. So
I think at eleven to one win the conference title,
you're you're definitely a top seed. The only I mean,
they have Indiana, but they get them at home. That's

(26:55):
like the only other really.

Speaker 1 (26:56):
To I'll give signety some credit. I mean that was
I didn't take them that seriously based off last year.
And you win a game. Who knows how good Illinois is,
but you win at sixty three to ten. That was impressive.

Speaker 2 (27:05):
They dominated that game start to finish. I mean Illinois
did lose it. They were without their top sixty backs
at one point in the game, but there was they
were going to blow them out of the water regardless.
So yeah, I did play Fenn State here should be
a good one though.

Speaker 1 (27:21):
Okay, last college game. Want to hit on Washington Ohio State.
This is where, like listen, it pains me that the
Pac twelve doesn't exist, but I do think it adds
to the Like the Big ten is just better because
of this, And I would say the same thing with
the SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma. When you start getting
like a random Arkansas playing Oklahoma or Texas playing you know,

(27:43):
Mississippi State, it's just more interesting. And Ohio State playing
at Washington. I remember a couple of years ago before
they had moved conferences. I think this game got canceled
because of the VID. There was some It was Washington
and Oregon we're both playing Ohio State and in Michigan.
I forget the exactly what it was, but it was like, Okay,
these games were sweet. These were like the first couple

(28:04):
of weeks opening games, and they both got canceled. It
might have been twenty twenty. But this is a good game.
I mean, I think Jed's pretty good. And I remember
a buddy told me, I think we had talked about
it that last year was a transition yeer for him
and they were gonna use their nil once they got
a year under their belt. And clearly I have I
just watched them against JUC Davis, which obviously is not
a fair fight, but they definitely are way more talented

(28:26):
than they were last year. Now Ohio State's a different animal,
but this is not an easy it's a long travel
for him, tough place to play, like it's I wouldn't
consider it like, you know, the best environment in America.
But it's not. It's not bad. I mean, it's just
this is a tough game for a while. State.

Speaker 2 (28:41):
Yeah, I played Washington, I mean I played them early
in the week.

Speaker 1 (28:45):
Plus they're getting over touchdown I'm seven and a half points.

Speaker 2 (28:48):
Yeah, so I think Washington's super live in this game
to pull off an upset. There's a couple things like
they're better in the trenches and if people aren't familiar
with Washington, and I agree, I think Washington is one
of the most under rated home fields. You know, it's
not the best, but it's one of the most owner
They've they've won twenty two straight at home, which is
the longest for them since I think they're you.

Speaker 1 (29:09):
Removed the year when Peterson retired and they put in
what's his name? They've been really good for almost a
decade now, haven't they.

Speaker 2 (29:15):
Yep? Yeah, and yeah they've They've won twenty two straight
at home. They if you're not familiar with Washington, they
have maybe the first receiver taken in the draft next year.
I mean, because uh Smith is not going to go
for all.

Speaker 1 (29:31):
He can't.

Speaker 2 (29:32):
He can't go to the draft nation. It's crazy. On Boston,
they have one of the best running backs in the
country and a guy who who can also catch out
of the back. I mean, he's he's going to be
drafted to play in the NFL. Demon Williams, their quarterback,
is very, very good. He can run, he can throw

(29:54):
like he's a problem. They're better in the trenches, so
I I assume, like Ohda State's going to try to
take away Boston, but that's where like Williams's legs, that's
where uh, that's where their their backs are going to
come in out of the backfield. So there's some things
they could do here. And then Jed Fish is probably
a top five play color play designer in college football.

(30:17):
They're so good in the scripted portion, which is huge
when you're playing this huge game at home if you
can like jump out and not take nothing suffocated early
and just build that momentum, get the crowd into it.
And yeah, I still have questions about Allhio State. They're
obviously one of the best handful of teams in the country,
but my questions coming into the year. We're okay saying
what's he going to look like? When is he ready?

(30:38):
He's looked great the first the last two weeks, but
against Texas it was not great. And I mean they
if Texas could score in the red zone, Ahio State
loses that game and we give all we gave all
the credits to the Ohio State defense, but the Texas
offense and arch have been horrendous since like the next
two weeks. Arch's went eleven of twenty four for one
hundred and forty yards against Utah at home, So they

(31:02):
I don't like it. So I had to I had
to like just step back and say, okay, wait, because
Ohio State defense lost a lot, Maybe they're not as
dominant as they looked. Maybe I still have questions about
Matt Patricia, So like I'll take Fish over Patricia. Now.
There's a couple of things to keep in mind here,
because the Washington offense is really really good. It's one
of the best in the country. I don't I think

(31:24):
that they can score here, but can there? Can they
get stops? So that's the number one. It's gonna be
like saying it's his first true roadue start in a
hostile environment. We've seen Freshman's part of my friend ship
the bed and that's there all year long. Uh so

(31:45):
that's that's not easy. We'll see all he handles that.
Washington plays a lot of cover one, a lot of man.
Their defense coordinators Ryan Walters and and they played a
lot of men last year too. But they have two
really really good corners Price Sock. They're both Arizona UH transfers.
Price Socking to Caryo Davis. Both going to play at
the next level. So and that's the whole. They need

(32:07):
that for their for their defense. They can just match
up on the outside. They're actually getting pressure this year
too without blitzing. Davis is questionable. He hurt his ribs.
I think he's gonna play. They need him. He didn't
play last week. This is like something to keep an
eye on. He didn't play last week. So they brought
in this sophomore who got roasted by Washington State. He
was he was getting beat constantly. Then they had to

(32:27):
bring in a true freshman. You don't want to be
doing that against Carnel Tate Jemi Smith. Like that's they
need Davis, they need Pristock in there. So that's something
to watch. They also lost their last their best linebacker
last week to an injury. He's not gonna play, but
they might get an all conference kid from Arizona who
towards ACL last October. He has been practicing. He might

(32:49):
come back, which is would be big because Washington doesn't
have like the depth of an Ohio State. So that's
another thing to keep an eye on. And they might
get one of their best pass rushers who wasn't played
this year back, So there's some moving piece on the defense,
and you want this defense at full strength, especially Davis.
That's something to keep an eye. But if Davis does play,
they have the guys to man up on the outside

(33:09):
for saying into some tight throws, some mistakes. Potentially can
the run defense hold up. I don't think this Ohio
State run game is anywhere close as good as last year,
so that's good, but that does scare me. But yeah,
I think there's a lot of intillgibles here that are
working in Washington's favor. So I took some purple rain
plus the points. I think they're pretty live here, especially

(33:31):
if Davis plays, but if he doesn't, it could be trouble.

Speaker 1 (33:47):
Cale's transition to the NFL. I saw a number and
I'm like, oh, this is a classic team, just blows out.
They're going to Pittsburgh. Tomlin's a home dog. And then
I realized, well, they're starting the International Games, so not
quite the I'm like, uh, don't love that number quite
as much. The Steelers. I just I don't know, man,
I don't see it and I think this week, you

(34:10):
know who knows. I mean it's Carson Wentz in twenty
twenty five better than JJ McCarthy right now. I mean,
that's I guess a good problem to have, given that
if they didn't have a backup. I mean, JJ one,
he's not even capable of playing. He's injured again. But
I mean seven of eight cords were pretty bad. I
just think if this defense is flying around, Aaron to
me just he's looked old for a couple of years now.

(34:31):
He just kind of slings that go route. He's always
screaming at the referees for a flag. I mean his
he looks old in the face. He's looked old for years,
but like his play now looks his age. It's I mean,
father time comes for as all. I mean, he's fucking
older than me. I mean I and I'm forty years old.
So it's like we shouldn't be that shocked. I think

(34:52):
the Steelers are in big trouble. Just big picture. You
get five turnovers and you struggle to win the game.
If you give a good team, if you gave the Bills,
the Ravens the Lions five turnovers, like what the score
bee would you if you had to guess forty plus points, right,
you know, So, I mean you're gonna give that many possessions.

Speaker 2 (35:11):
And many of them came like at the goal line,
like driving for the win, like it was insane.

Speaker 1 (35:17):
This feels too easy. They'll taking the Vikings here because
there's no like, I don't know how this line is
up bigger. I guess it's just Carson Wentz.

Speaker 2 (35:24):
Yeah, Carson Wentz. People are always gonna Steelers are a
public team. When there's a plus next to them, it's
like Aaron Rodgers versus Carson Wentz. There's gonna be enough
support for the Steelers. But I agree it's under three.
It's Vikings or nothing. Bikers are gonna get Addison back.
They should get Kelly back, their center, Darresol came back,
their left tackles, their offensive line Jackson will missed, the

(35:45):
rookie from Ohio State who's looked really, really good. But
they should be okay on the offensive line. Their defense
is pretty much close to healthy. The Steelers are not
like they have a bunch of defensive injuries that we're
recording this on Wednesdays early afternoon, so I don't know
they're injury report, but they're not fully healthy on defense,
and their defenses looked horrendous, Like you're talking about a

(36:05):
Steelers team that arguably should be oh and three, and
then this line definitely would be over a field goal.
Like they were outplayed by the Sea Offs. I know
there was a Fluke special teams player, but they were
outplayed by the Jets for the most part, and then
they were outplayed last weekend, so they can.

Speaker 1 (36:23):
So they've been out gained in their two wins by
like two hundred and eighty yards or something.

Speaker 2 (36:26):
Yeah, they they're they easily could be oh and three,
And I mean the Vikings have a pair of dominant wins.
They should win the line of scrimmage battle on both
sides now that they're healthier on the offensive line. The
Steelers defensive line besides Hayward, has not been great. And
where this comes down to for me is you pretty

(36:47):
much alluded to it. The Steelers can't run the ball.
They've been really poor there. Their offensive line has not
been great. They're tackles in particular, and the Vikings defense
where you can get them is on the ground. The
Steelers can't really run it. And Rogers in the worst
quarterback in the league this year under pressure, and Steelers

(37:07):
are thirty first and pass block win rate, So what
does that mean they can't run it? They're gonna be
in third and longs. Rogers is six of twenty two
when under pressure this season with three picks, so and
Vikings are top three in pressure, right, so it's gonna
be third and longs and Flores bringing pressure on Rogers
and he's not gonna have any recourse.

Speaker 1 (37:31):
And was there a better quarterback in his prime against
the pressure against pressure than him?

Speaker 2 (37:35):
Nope.

Speaker 1 (37:38):
That tells you everything you need to know, right.

Speaker 2 (37:39):
Yeah, and now it's just it's it's sad to watch.
So yeah, under three. I like the Vikings favorites have
been really good in these overseas games.

Speaker 1 (37:49):
For what it's worth, you called it last week. You
said Week three is prime for an upset, right, and
too bad?

Speaker 2 (37:57):
I bet the Rams plus three and a half, probably
the worst feat of the twenty years.

Speaker 1 (38:01):
But the Browns beat the Packers. Now, you also said
this Brown's defense is good. And listen, you win a
game ten to nothing or ten to three on the
road at Cleveland at the end of the season, if
you win thirteen fourteen games. No one judges you for that.
This isn't college football. No one gives a shit. Right
it's a good win, Get out of there, get moving.
They lose that game, so now everyone's like, what's up

(38:21):
with the Packers the Cowboys. I probably was a little
hyperbolic calling Eberflus the worst defensive coach. And I understand
that they have bad defensive personnel. But when guys are
wide open, and this used to happen to Brian and Staley,
when guys are wide open, that means the coaching the
players have no clue what's going on. That means they
are whether it's me or you playing defensive back, they're

(38:42):
just completely And this is the NFL digs tripping against
Rome happens like the people trip, But when a guy's
just wide open, especially in red zone spots, like your
players are clueless when they break the huddle, I don't.
I think I would be stunned if the Packers don't
win this game by double digits. Now I think the
thing would be how good, like how potent is the

(39:03):
Packers offense? But I just think it's an easy one
full of floor to kind of, you know, just fucking
get after their ass this week, and he's already kind
of a red ass defensively with ceed gone. I mean
you felt it immediately when he rolls his anklely like
their offense goes from pretty good like oh, not quite
the same. This feels, especially with the Mica stuff like

(39:27):
thirty to thirteen or something written all over. And this
is my favorite line on the board, and I typically
don't love these, like you know, minus seven's on the road,
but I'd be stunned if the Packers. I'll look at
the Packers differently if this game's close.

Speaker 2 (39:42):
Yeah, I mean the Cowboys. Also the Cowby's offense now
as you goslam, you also have a couple of your
starting offensive linemen around now, so their offense still can
be feisty with Dak, who can probably put up some points.
I don't mind the over, but.

Speaker 1 (39:57):
I don't thickenses look good.

Speaker 2 (39:59):
Yeah, I don't know how they get stops and their
their offense just isn't isn't at the same level, not
with the healthy offense line, and of course not without Lamb,
like that was gonna be what they had to fall
back on this year. You know, if the offensive line
was good, Dak was great, and then you brought in
pickings and then you have these two dynamic receivers. Well,
now you're basically the Steelers offensive last year and without

(40:25):
a defense. Uh, special teams are good. So like how
many points can they steal with their returns? Kick returns?
And then Aubrey hitting seventy yarders? So that's always indoors.
That's always the thing with the Cowboys, Like there's gonna
be a lot of drives where they just need like
ten yards to get a field goal.

Speaker 1 (40:43):
But how do they could what do you think they
could trade Aubrey for third round?

Speaker 2 (40:48):
It's possible. The forty nine ers they they they should.

Speaker 1 (40:54):
Uh so.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
The forty nine is also can't figure out the kickoff
the new kickoff. Real, they're the worst. Teams are the worst,
uh the best starting field position against them. You know
who has figured it out? The Rams, The Rams and
the Panthers. They kicked these knuckleballs, these like knuckleball line drives,
and these teams can't. The Eagles like started at like
the twelve yard.

Speaker 1 (41:17):
Line, like all game long, is insane.

Speaker 2 (41:20):
But the Panthers and Rams the average starting field position
for their opponents, it's like the twenty yard line. Wow,
and then like the forty nine ers is like the
thirty four. Like it's a huge difference.

Speaker 1 (41:30):
I hate it when like was it Baits on Monday
Night where he tried to like he's trying to angle
these and it goes out of bounds. You just give
it to him on the forty. I'm like, give it,
give it to him on the forty. If if you
gave that to Bryce Young on the forty, let alone,
Lamar Jackson that that is a devastating play to kick
it out of bounds. Nowadays, I would never angle it
toward the front pylons. Ever, the penalty is too great.

(41:51):
I mean it's basically I would imagine the expected points,
but it'd be like minimum, like two and a half
three points.

Speaker 2 (41:59):
Yeah, forty the Yeah, if you have teams have to start,
I'm curious see how many cats on how many gonna
start practiment these line drive knucklers. I don't know if
every kick I don't know the ins and outs of
the heart of kicking, but I don't know how easy
it is to learn to do that. But that's been
really effective so far.

Speaker 1 (42:18):
This rule has worked because the kickoff is more interesting
for sure.

Speaker 2 (42:21):
Yeah, I mean the kickoff percentage. The amount of returns
is through the roof. It's insane. It's like eighty percent
of them are being returned. But the field position hasn't
gone up too much. But there's more variance and part
of that, it's like some of these teams are doing
it really well and then there's there's bigger returns. There's
a lot of times the teams are starting at the forty.
So it definitely made it more interesting. But yeah, Packers

(42:46):
should score it will here. Like their offensive line is
banged up, so I'm curious to see if they get
some of those guys back, which really cost them last week.
They couldn't block Cleveland couldn't block them. There was no block.
They had nothing. They can run Jordan run, Yes, that
was amazing, Like they they couldn't block them now there. Now,

(43:06):
if you're playing the Cowboys and you have offense lineages,
it's not really that big of a deal. They don't
have an elite pass rush. And then you mentioned Parsons,
So yeah, I couldn't bet the Cowboys here. The Packers
are nothing. I actually don't mind the over either, So
Cowboys canna be throwing the fast up tempo and the
Packers should score it will Cowboys should put up a
couple of touchdowns here at the very minimum. So yeah,

(43:31):
and then I'm curious to see if the Browns against
the lines, like the Raiders aren't able to get pressure.
The the Browns can get pressure, and that lines into
your offensive line is an issue if you have guys,
and Cleveland has guys and golf. If you can get
him under pressure, that's how you fluster him. And it's
gonna be indoors. Can the can they can they hold

(43:53):
him down enough to where Flacco and that offense can
do enough. I don't know, but uh, it'll be fun
to watch for sure. But yeah, I agree with you
on your Packers take. I what else did I play?
I did play The Falcons lines come down a bit,
but I still like them. The Commanders are Pennis had
a nightmare game. I still believe in him. He just

(44:14):
it was an awful game. Quarterbacks have these when they're young.
He hasn't even started the full season yet. The Commanders
are beat up, their secondaries beat up, lost a couple
of starters. I mean they're signing like Darnell Savage from
the Jags, which just got clubby might start this week. McLaurin.
I don't think it's going to play. We just still
don't know. And Jane Daniels, if he does play, I
don't think it's going to be mobile. So yeah, this

(44:36):
is a I think this is a pretty good spot.
This is like the trifecta of spots for the Falcons.
They lost last year. They lost thirty nothing, but I
mean they outgained the Panthers by one hundred yards. It
was kind of misleading. It just kind of it just
was one of those games where everything went against them.
Pennix was so inaccurate. They missed a couple of field goals,
there was two defensive touch like it was a mess.

(44:59):
But just to these these spots. An underdog off of
a shutout loss forty six, twenty nine and three against
the spread over the past twenty five years, sixty one
percent dogs off of a thirty plus point loss one fifteen,

(45:21):
seventy six and eight against the spread, sixty percent against
the spread. That applies to the Bengals, Saints and Falcons
this week. What is the theme right there? I just
told you you want to bet the Falcons against the Commanders,
the Saints against the Bills, the Bengals against the Broncos.
Do you want to bet any of those teams? No, No,
that's one of the reasons why these team Usually you're
gonna get these are professionals. You're gonna get their best

(45:42):
stepf for the next week. But you a lot of
times the line is going to be a bit inflated
like this. This Bill's Bills Saints line would have been
fourteen before last week. And the thing is, the Saints
didn't even play that bad on it down down basis.
They gave up like twenty eight points on special teams.
It was insane, Like they've got a punt block for

(46:04):
a touchdown, they got a punt an eating or punt
return that it was a disaster on special team.

Speaker 1 (46:10):
So fifteen plus point spread in not even in October,
pretty large.

Speaker 2 (46:15):
Yeah, if I get seventeen year, I'm definitely on it.
I still my bet sixteen and a half. Like, here's
the thing, the Saints the Bills are just gonna run
it here, and they're probably not gonna you don't run
Allen in a game like this, so like you're they're
gonna get a lead. And by the way, they were
just favored by eleven and a half against the disaster
of the Dolphins, and they were. The Dolphins are in

(46:36):
that game until the very end and the Bills didn't cover.
But the Saints are like sixteenth and success rate in
non garbage time thirteenth passing success rate like Rattler has
been okay.

Speaker 1 (46:46):
They have good offensive pieces.

Speaker 2 (46:48):
Yeah, and they're gonna and the Saints have a top
ten run defense so far, so like their runde's been
pretty good. So what does that mean is like if
the Bills get up big, they're just gonna sit on
this and the Saints run. He's been good, Like they
can get some stops and the Bills don't care and
then they can get in the back door. They also
could just hang around here. So I think they're gonna

(47:09):
get a couple offensive line back now. Situationally like it's
good off at thirty point loss, but they're coming across
the country bills of extra rests or second straight road game.
That's not ideal. And we'll see if Oliver Milano play
for Buffalo. But that that's just too I that's another
one like the Bengals Broncos Bengals, you wouldn't be getting
over seven here if they didn't lose by forty, but

(47:33):
a lot of that they did five turnovers, like the
ball in the ground gross, like Isaiah Rodgers had like
the greatest game in NFL history from a cornerback, and
then everything just went downhill. And then you're playing against
floor as was bringing the house, and so you know,
this is still bo Nick's langover touchdown. And I did
play the Bengals plus seven and a half. But historically
playing those teams off thirty plus point losses. When you

(47:55):
think about it, who wants to bet those teams has
and you're getting them now over key numbers has generally
been a recipe for success.

Speaker 1 (48:18):
Two more interesting games. I saw Sirianni say, obviously the
Bucks have kind of had their number. They're leaving early,
which I don't know the exact flight. I've actually made
it before, but it's not that far. You wouldn't typically
go two days, you know, Friday, if you're playing the
Bucks from Philly. So it's I don't want to say
it's in their head, but it's something that I'm sure
they've been talking about for a while. You know, the Bucks,

(48:40):
you got Mike Evans is out right but Godwin and
Worfs could return, right. I think they you know, I
know the GM a little bit. I think worse. They've
been really slow playing it. They feel pretty good about them.
They just didn't want to rush him back. Smart move.
I mean it's too important. But I don't know. I mean,
I the Bucks have pulled some games obviously out of there.

(49:02):
You know what I think, first time in NFL history,
three straight comebacks, three straight weeks to open the season
or something.

Speaker 2 (49:07):
Six total points.

Speaker 1 (49:09):
Yeah, so, uh but it's not like the Eagles seven
pass Yeah. So I don't know. I mean, I I
just think, do you if you get over a field goal?
You gotta take Tampa at home in this situation because
or is Kevin Patola just gonna start throwing to I
don't know, A J. Brown all the time. Might might
be a good idea if they open up the offense.

(49:30):
I like the Eagles a little bit more. But I
don't know. I mean, A J. Brown even said after
the game, He's like, I don't know why we're so conservative.
Just throw the ball, get the ball to our playmakers
in space. Like what he I mean, he did it
in a nice way. He was good about it. And
I don't know he one hundred percent was correct, but
he basically said, what the fuck have we been doing?
Let him throw the ball outside the numbers.

Speaker 2 (49:50):
Yeah, So that's the big wildcard here because you can't
run on Tampa. Tampa's run defense is elite. They're number
one in the NFL so far this season. So and
the Eagles do miss Becton, Like, their offensive line isn't
the same in the interior, which is why Barkley hasn't
been able to get going. And the offense has been predictable.
So if they come out here and just try to
run it like the Bucks are gonna be in the game.

(50:11):
But if they come out and throw it, no aggress
So I don't know on that front in order, And yeah,
they're they're trying to go down there and acclimate to
the weather of the humidity and humidity. So but Tampa
you need you need Wors I think, and probably Godwin
to play. Now. Goog has been really good, but he

(50:35):
also doesn't get the attention, like as much attention because
you have Evans on the field. So like now if
it's just him out there, it's definitely gonna be tougher
because the Eagles have a problem at their second corner spot.
So but so like you want like two good receivers
out there, Baker still finds a way. But worst is

(50:56):
huge this week because this is not the defensive line.
If they went the Jets don't have a great defensive
line and they were missing one of their best pass
rushers last week, the Bucks could not block them. Now
you might say, okay, well they put up points. I
can't There's there comes a point in time where if
you're a ref, you just you can't call. You can't

(51:20):
call thirty penalties, like you just can't keep calling like
I imagine, I don't know they'ver been ref I they
could have called a hold on every play. I think
that Bucks had eight penalties in the first quarter. It
was insane. They were every play was a hold.

Speaker 1 (51:37):
So you think Roger calls a halftime like, hey, guys,
is a TV product. We got a but.

Speaker 2 (51:42):
Even as a ref, like you're you're in Tampa, so
you go the human nature, You're like, I can't keep
doing this. So but the so now that you're going
Eagle's defense line isn't as good as last year, but
it's really good. It's a lot better than the Jets.
So if you don't have Worse, get Decky, you're right
on IR, you're right guard, mak is on IR. If

(52:03):
you don't have Worse, your center is still at left tackle.
It's an absolute circus. But if you get Worf's back,
you have one of the best left tackles in the NFL.
On Baker's blunts. You get Barton back at center, and
like it's not as bad, it's still not ideal. But
if you don't have Worst, and basically it's like five
guys that are new with their positions and like the

(52:27):
guy you'd have left guard has even he's been even
been out like so it is a disaster. So worst
coming back in Barton being able to go to center,
and then Godwin is huge because of Evans being out.
So without knowing that, without knowing the Eagles game plan,
these two teams have owned me this year. I had
the Rams last week disaster. I had the Falcons against
the Bucks, the Texans against the Bucks. Luckily I have

(52:48):
the Jets and they almost screwed me again. But h so,
I haven't had a good read on these teams, although
I've been really unlucky. But these two teams are the
luck teams. I don't know. If WARF's is back, I
would take over three, but I don't have a good feel.
I am curious to see. I told you this last week.
I the NFL is gonna They came out, they said,
we're gonna officiate the toush Bush closer. It's gonna cost

(53:11):
the Eagles four points. Well, they went off sides the
first one and they didn't call it. The whole world
saw it, and they end up calling it on the Saints.
The poor old Saints gotta fall start a toushbush. I
couldn't believe they didn't call that. It led to four points.
I would even have had to pull my hair out
because of that misfield goal. If that didn't happen, it
would have been a field goal attep for the Eagles.
Couldn't believe they didn't call that. It was like the

(53:32):
most obvious false star. But an interesting thing here with
this touch. But are number one? Are they gonna call it?
Fall start? Could like take four points off the board,
kill a drive and the Bucks have vitavea and there
I think they're gonna activate. Get Desmond Watson from Florida
who weighs like four hundred and they I think they
they drafted him or signed him just for the to

(53:55):
play the Eagles this year.

Speaker 1 (53:57):
That is sweet. I didn't honestly, I didn't even think
about it when I saw the headline that they had
they had re signed him to their practice squad? Is
that what they did this week? Was he not even yeah?
Got you?

Speaker 2 (54:07):
So I assume they're gonna bring him up.

Speaker 1 (54:08):
He's that is sick in the middle. So the tush
push stopper.

Speaker 2 (54:16):
Yeah, that's that's basically why you got drafted or why
he got signed. I don't think he was drafted, but
that's his that's his role. So like this is a
huge game for him. He gets a stop on the
toush push.

Speaker 1 (54:31):
He just goes team to team. Whoever's they just sign him.

Speaker 2 (54:36):
Uh, that would be amazing, So that that'll be fun
to watch in the game. But I don't have a
strong feel that.

Speaker 1 (54:40):
Injuries you've had, you've had good stats over the years
on the interim coach, that that interim boost. What about
the rookie quarterback coming in the first round or when
a guy gets bence like Russell Wilson. I'm taking the
Giants this week plus six. You know the Chargers, they'd
go thirteen and four. You lose basically one game a month.
Right now, you would say they're gonna lose this game.

(55:03):
But they've just huge start to their season. You beat
every team in your division. I can imagine that was
a huge point emphasis all off season. We start fast.
This year, we take the we have a huge lead,
we get a little buffer like this is a long
road trip. I mean, this is the type like you
go two days early because it's a six hour flight
from Los Angeles. Listen. I actually think the weird part

(55:25):
about the Giants they have been shitty now for beside
the nine and eight season for a long time. They
do feel like they got some players, I mean burns
like God, Cavon Thibodeaut looks the best season I think
he's ever looked At Duel Carter, I mean, there is
no way do you think there's a GM in the league.
If you're like, hey, you get the opportunity to draft
Travis Hunter Abdul Carter. What do you think the ratio

(55:46):
would be for Abdul Carter? Thirty two to zero? Yeah, apparently,
but they might change their two Now I'm not anti
Travis Hunter, but at duel Carter looks like he got
a chance to be like Michael Barton's two point oh
as a freak. Adam standing up lilast week.

Speaker 2 (56:00):
I like they just stuck them in a linebacker and he.

Speaker 1 (56:03):
Was good scataboo like that style wouldn't have worked maybe
thirty years ago. But these guys are smaller now. They're smaller,
faster guys. So he's running over the safeties like they
don't look like safeties from when I was a kid
and you were a kid like Tim McDonald. Those guys
don't exist. Todd Bowles was to save Todd Bowles is big.
All the safeties now weigh like two hundred pounds or
fast cover guys. So Molie Neighbor's a freak. I think

(56:27):
eventually the Giants aren't. They're not like some two win team.
And I like the Giants in this spot, and I
still like, I'm not off the Chargers, but this is
your classic. I can see the Charges coming out flat
a little bit and the Giants getting a huge boost. Now,
rookie quarterback, you never know this. Defensively, uh, not the easiest.

Speaker 2 (56:44):
Matchup sideways, but with the rookie, but it's gotta be
better than what Wilson looked like last week. The Giants
should have covered that game. I had him plus six
and a half. Sadly, they lost their kicker before the game,
which cost him like nine points. Because they could kick
field goals, they couldn't kick extra points. They had to
go for it and they didn't get fourth downs at
the end. They even would have kicked another field goal

(57:05):
instead of throwing it into the tunnel four times. But
Mahomes had like four or five turner where he plays.
He didn't turn it over at all like he had
a couple. They were really unlucky. Their defense was dominant
in that game, and their defense is better even the
back end of their defense. They added Holland I like Nubin.
They improved their secondary got flowed in there instead of Banks,
who's been playing well. And yeah, the how the Giants

(57:29):
can win this game. Twofold and first time quarterbacks have
had success against the spread. It's not overwhelming, but generally
been decent bets. That you have Dart who the Chargers
don't really know what to expect from the offense, so
you have that uncertainty working for you.

Speaker 1 (57:50):
Like, well, he's been bringing him in like plays like
he would run for Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson.

Speaker 2 (57:54):
Yeah, so there's probably gonna be like more zone read.
And the other thing is Andrew Thomas should play a
full like he's mad he didn't play in the second half.
They hadn't on a snap count. He should be well,
he only played the whole He played the whole first half,
then the second half they brought in the back in
their backup so bad and the whole offensive line falls apart.
But he should be back. And he's one of the
best left tackles when healthy. He looked healthy last week.

(58:16):
That'll help, but they'll probably run a lot of read
option stuff. I liked art so And the other thing
is the Chargers offensive line is an issue right now.
Like we knew that bald is a stud. He moved
the left tackle, but last week they lost Beckton who's
in his concussion, so I don't think he'll play. And
after they lost Becton it and Pipkins went out too.

(58:38):
The right tackle was really bad, but he gave up
like nine pressures. Last week. They brought in this kid, Sallyar,
who was getting tossed like a rag doll and Herbert
had no time whatsoever. The Giants are one of the
best defensive, best pass rushes in the NFL, so Herbert
could be under fire here. Maybe the charges go back
to just leaning on the run. The Giants run d

(59:00):
isn't great, but dexter lawrence against you know, Sally or whoever,
or and then whoever they want to put on the
left side to rush Herbert. It the Charters offense could
look a little subdued. Here go this is there's like
three teams in the NFL like that. The Giants are
the Giant. It's like the Giants, the Broncos, the Browns,

(59:27):
the Vikings because of scheme where like they're their front
can just ruin a game, and they almost did against
the Chiefs. Like they were just so so so close
to a couple of game changing turnovers that could happen
this week.

Speaker 1 (59:39):
Packers probably now yeah.

Speaker 2 (59:41):
Packers, so the yeah, I'll be on the Giants as well.

Speaker 1 (59:48):
Okay, any thoughts on just the all time great Monday
night football game in the Miami Dolphins against the New
York Jets.

Speaker 2 (59:57):
Uh over, If anything that the Dolphins defense can't be fixed,
Their secondary is bad the Jets defense is bad, Like
you're telling me you gave up. You lost that game
last week. The Bucks couldn't block like dead five backup
offensive linemen and Evans gets hurt. I mean, we saw

(01:00:18):
the Steelers put up forty like the Jets defense is broken,
and they had more injuries. They lost Quinn Williams. Two
zero to three teams. Historically, when there's winless teams, it's
like sixty four percent against the spread that take the
dog in those spots. It's like a ridiculous clip that
they hit at. But under forty five, I think this

(01:00:39):
game can get a little loose, and both defenses are bad.
Two oh and three teams. The Dolphins offense has woken
up a bit the past two weeks, so yeah, I
would look over there, but oh my god, we got
Browning Knicks whoever. The Jets are gonna have a quarterback
and Tua.

Speaker 1 (01:00:57):
I'm going Jets money line. I don't mind it going
Jets money line that this is. I mean, Roger Rodger's
got to be disappointed with the schedule maker in this situation.
He can't be happy bad. But this is also why
they manipulating cooking the books with these double headers that
he give you two crabby games, but still two games?
What else are you gonna watch?

Speaker 2 (01:01:16):
And one of them close?

Speaker 1 (01:01:18):
Yeah? Okay, Stuckey, Uh thanks for coming on early with
us and appreciate your time and enjoy I mean this
is this is a fantastic Saturday. Is gonna be got
a chance to be pretty special.

Speaker 2 (01:01:28):
Yeah, Saturday, amazing, amazing slate. If you have any plans,
get out of them and uh yeah, the whole week,
it's gonna be great. You even mentioned TCU Arizona State.
That's a huge one of the Big twelve. For like,
who's going to potentially get to play Texas Tech. It
looks like Josh Huger might be the best quarterback in
the country. Check him out if you haven't seen him.

Speaker 1 (01:01:50):
You like TCU plus two and a half. It's pretty hot.
It's pretty hot here. I need is hot in Texas too.

Speaker 2 (01:01:55):
I want to get a three. My only concern I
gotta look into it so he can follow follow along
in the Action Network AP to see if I play it,
so it's free. Uh hoover on the last play the game,
I don't know why he was in the game or
why they were running a play but he got he
like got hobbled, and it didn't look good. I don't
know what I got to look into that, but uh yeah,

(01:02:17):
if I can get three even at two and a half,
I think Hoover legit might be QB one. Uh in
this class. He's that good.

Speaker 1 (01:02:26):
Well keep an eye on that one. Excited Okay, Stucky,
talk to you soon.

Speaker 2 (01:02:30):
Absolutely, I'm going

Speaker 1 (01:02:35):
The volume