3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: Ravens-Texans, Lions-Bengals, Texas-Floria, Miami-FSU

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming weekend in both college football and the NFL. They dive into the biggest matchups, key storylines, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. From Saturday’s slate of massive college games to Sunday’s NFL action, they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
What is going on everybody? How are we doing? Fired up?
Like last week, I have a some travel plans and
schedule this week that has kind of thrown everything off.
So we recorded. I'm recording this on Wednesday with Stucky
and going over all the NFL slate from a gambling perspective,

(00:37):
some of the big games in college football. We typically
do this on Thursday and then put it out on Friday.
We're going to day early this week. So my guy
Stucky from Action Network, he yeah, we'll sling some ideas
and take some thoughts on the different games this weekend
off each other and kind of trying to figure this
slight out, which you know, I would say is not

(00:59):
the greatest slate of games you'll ever see, But that's
why God made gambling, and that's why we're gonna hammer it.
We got arch Manning going to Gainesville playing Florida, who's
really good on defense. We got Florida State Miami, a
game I grew up on. Bobby Bowden against the Hurricanes
was always fantastic, and that's what we will do. So, yeah,
you guys know the drill. But before we dive into

(01:21):
into Stuckey, I gotta tell you about my friends, my Partners.
The official ticketing app of this part podcast, Game Time
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be pretty sweet, probably the last who Raw. So if
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(01:43):
wild Card Round and it's like, it's just intense. That
Red Sox Yankee game feels like an NFL game. Every
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Last minute tickets, lowest prices guarantee. Okay, back at it
again with my main man, Stucky from the Action Network.

(02:27):
You can find them Big Bets on campus the Action
Network podcast. Make sure you go subscribe for all your
gambling needs. All lines on this podcast are presented by
our friends at hard Rock Bet. We got a lot
going on, stuck you. You and I were talking before
we press record. I saw this clip of Fangio, who's
just you know, Fangio. He's super rich, he's now a

(02:50):
super Bowl champion. He's probably I don't watch his press
conference every week, but he's he has no filter and
he just kind of, hey, guys, do we all realize
what's going on with these kicking balls? And I don't
think most people do because everyone's just like, oh, these
kickers are crazy. You and I started watching football in
the nineties. A forty five yard field goal was considered long.

(03:11):
If you hit a fifty yarder, it was like the
equivalent of like, yeah, it was like a Hail Mary
on offense. It was crazy now, and even Fangio said it,
like the Kit Dallas is going to hit a seventy
yard field goal, like get ready, it's coming, and everyone
else like we prepare for sixty yard field goals. So
it's like sixty is the old fifty, you know, it's

(03:32):
kind of like inflation. And he was talking about the
kicking balls, but that has changed. I mean, let's face it,
we got to factor that into gambling. You know these lines.
Someone hit me up on DMS like, should a sixty
plus yard er now be worth four? And I would
say yeah, in the old world maybe, but now it's
not as long for these guys. So is it throwing

(03:54):
you out of whack a little bit with these field goals?

Speaker 1 (03:57):
Yeah? I mean it's Tanjo pipe that up because mclaughland,
Chase McLachlan had a sixty five yarder at the end
of the half outdoors in Tampa and it had room
to spare. So yeah, that we're going to see a
seventy one soon enough. I mean we saw what was
what was.

Speaker 2 (04:15):
The do you want? Did you watch the Lane dock
when he when he threw out sea bass for was
a seventy six?

Speaker 1 (04:23):
Yes? That was Yeah. Cam Little hit a seventy yarder
this preseason for the Jags doesn't officially count, but he
hit it from seventy Yeah, Lane that was when seventy
six yard It was the week he got fired the
next week and it like came up like fifteen yards short.
That was that was outrageous.

Speaker 2 (04:43):
So what was what was justin Tucker's in Detroit?

Speaker 1 (04:47):
Like six which is the current record because cook because uh,
cam Little's in the preseason obviously doesn't count, so it
was preseason. But that's the longest it's ever been hit
in any game, preseason or regular season. But the regular
season record is sixty six Tuckers, which was indoors. But yeah,
I mean you saw Glackland Outdoors hit it from sixty

(05:07):
five with these last week, which is why Fangio probably
brought it up. And teams aren't able before they just
handed you three balls and then you add an hour
to prep them. Now you can, you have you can
you have a limited time to prep your balls, you know,
kind of mold them to how you want them to be,
the feel and it's obviously kickers get those balls to

(05:31):
how they you know, and and they get the feel
for those balls and they practice with them, and uh,
it's going to lead to longer field goals. I think
the league did it there. Maybe there was some there
was some rumors that some teams are kind of bending
the rules a little bit with that, but they want
more points and like that's that, that's what they're trying
to do. With the kickoff rule. It really impacts the
end of games, like you have to be really smart

(05:55):
as a coach to man like coaches botched so many
end game scenarios. But it's even more tenuous now because
you if you score with twenty seconds left, like with
a new kickoff rule, they could be starting at the
thirty five ford or forty and then with these new
cables like you could might you only need to get
one first down and then all of a sudden you're
in a field goal range.

Speaker 2 (06:15):
Well, twenty years ago, the dack to ferguson to the
kicker making the whatever it was in the Giants game,
probably wouldn't have been possible. You're starting at the twenty,
you don't have much time left. You would need what.

Speaker 1 (06:30):
For think it's like the thirty five, so you would
need a long way forty five yards. And now if
you're starting at the thirty five and kickers are making
them from sixty, you know you only need now twenty
like you need half the yards pretty much than what
you used to. So yeah, it's it's definitely changing the game,

(06:52):
and we're going to continue to see longer field goals
and the accuracy on his longer field goals continue to uptick. Fangio.
I watch a ton of pressers every week College and
NFL on like the fastest you could possibly watch them
in the background, and I'm just listening for some nuggets
here and there, injury updates, whatever. But Fanjo is one

(07:15):
of the ones I love listening to because he's an
open book, like he'll tell you, yeah, he'll he'll just
share like thoughts on scheme and personnel, and I love
listening to his press conferences, so wasn't shocked that he
was the one that brought that up.

Speaker 2 (07:31):
He also is one of the rare guys that talks
like it's still the eighties or nineties. He'll just be like, yeah,
Jalen Carter's fat, Yeah, you know, like no other coordinator.
I mean, he's like it's not totally his fault, but yeah,
he's he needs to lose about tench Like he just
talks like a coach would talk back in the day,
and now you know, all these coaches beat around the

(07:52):
bush with any you know, high profile player, he gives
no shitsuh. And if if everyone did it, I mean,
all these press conferences would go so viral of just
people saying it's like the solid thing, what was your
take on one? The whole fighting thing. It's like, Robert,
you're saying you're gonna murder this guy, like you're not
gonna touch this guy, Like you're not gonna get on

(08:14):
a fight on the field, even though that would have
been incredible if it happened. But yeah, he walked it
back yesterday saying he truly was trying to give the
guy a compliment. Liam Cohen was clearly offended. You know,
it felt like Robert was trying to diminish. You know,
people in niner Land thought, like Saula is bitter that
he didn't get the job. I don't know. I mean,

(08:35):
I I just like, I this is this type story
that I the fight part was kind of entertaining, but
the whole sein stealing. Liam Cohen being bitter, it's like
he lost the game. Just go go to your locker room.

Speaker 1 (08:46):
Yeah, I mean, Sala was actually like trying to give
him a compliment. But like I get why he was
salty because like he was because he mentioned like sign stealing,
but he was saying, like they have a legal system
where they're able to gain an edge. You know there
unless these two teams get to the super Bowl, Jacksonville San
Francisco is not gonna turn into anything of rivalry. So

(09:07):
it's not like these teams see each other often. So yeah,
it'll it'll probably die click. But it was. It was
a nice little fun moment at the end of that game.
But uh, it's I didn't take too much from it.

Speaker 2 (09:21):
Okay, let's just fire in some games. We got another
international game Minnesota, who is just in shambles health wise.
I mean, their offensive line is a major problem. But
I saw this morning. We're recording this on Wednesday. Miles
did he get hurt during the game. He didn't practice
on Wednesday. He's got an ankle injury. To me, if
he's fully healthy, I mean that that would be a

(09:43):
major problem for them. I still like Cleveland. I also
saw that Stefanski said, you know, it just shows you
I feel bad for Dylan Gabriel, Like everyone's rooting against
him because they want to see Shador. It's like, guys,
Dylan Gabriel, I'll keep beating this drum. People act like
he came from UC Like, guys, he was just starting
in Oregon. You know, this is this is not some

(10:03):
and before that he was in Oklahoma, Like this isn't
some scrub. He's not my cup of tea. But I
think people are acting like he how's this guy even starting?

Speaker 1 (10:11):
Well?

Speaker 2 (10:11):
Shoot? Or is not even the backup? Joe Flacco is
going to be the backup? Uh, But they'll go with
the quarterback change against Minnesota and Brian Flores, which you
know could be a little difficult on the on the
little guy. But I that that offensive line. I know
Wentz put up some numbers, but TJ and company was
wrecking Havoc like that. That version of the Steelers that

(10:31):
we saw was like, okay, you know, physically, that's a
little bit more of what I thought we were getting
when they were up whatever the score was, like twenty
four to six or whatever early in the second half.

Speaker 1 (10:42):
Yeah, has been I don't have high smith a seiers.
He's been pretty bad this year. That I think had
more to do with Minnesota and the Browns defense has
been dominant all year long against the run, against the pass,
and they did it against Burrow. They did it against
even against Detroit last week. They held that offense in check.
There was a bunch of turnovers like they had the

(11:03):
Lions had an interception return to the five and scored
a touchdown. And you know, they held them to under
three hundred yards, under three yards, under four yards to carry.
They held that that offense in check.

Speaker 2 (11:14):
Their defense is top notch.

Speaker 1 (11:16):
Yeah, so yeah, I just texted my god and he
says he thinks Garrett will play, which is big. But yeah,
that's I think it's obviously not ideal that from a
spot perspective, I did bet the Browns, but it's not
ideal that you're making the quarterback change going overseas, playing

(11:39):
O'Brian flores defense to a rookie for his first start
while that team's already overseas. So I don't know that's
worth like a half point right there. But yeah, I mean,
the Vikings are their offensive line. You're gonna know Brian O'Neill,
no Donovan Jackson, no Ryan Kelly, I assume. So you're
down to like Justin's school, Michael Jurgens at Senators like

(11:59):
a seventh round draftic at a wake Forest Blake Brandle
had left guard like it's bad, and Wentz under pressure
is bad. I mean he's has a thirty percent pressure
to sack ratio, ten percent turnover worthy play rate going
up against this Browns front which has dominated everybody. They're
number one in run block wing rate, number one and
pass block win rate. So I think that the Browns

(12:19):
defensive line is going to dominate this game. So what
can the Browns do? So, yeah, it's not gonna be easy,
but it looks like Van Ginkel will be out. They
also miss Blake Cashman and the Rundee, so they're like
the Vikings are twenty sixth and rush epa twentieth and
rushed success rate, so you can run on them. So
I assume that's just what Stephans is gonna do here.
It's gonna just lean on Judkins, who has look good

(12:42):
and he's he's done well against stack boxes too, and
then easy pass like just easy short passes, and like
Flacco has been so bad, he's not mobile either that
you can get Gaber out like some bootlegs. He can
move a little bit. And for what it's worth, Minnesota
and floors, they're gonna blitz a lot and then they
might even up their blitz rate as they as Flora's

(13:03):
done in the past against rookie quarterbacks, so he's had
a ton of success against But Gabriel against the blitz
in college was an absolute monster. He had sixty three
touchdowns and seven interceptions against the blitz in his college career.
It's a nine to one ratio. When he wasn't blitzed,
his ninety two touchdowns twenty five picks about three and
a half to one. So he's always been really good

(13:24):
against the blitz with just like the quick decision making,
quick passes, which is what I think this offen is
gonna be. They're just gonna lean on the run game,
and I think that their defense can control this game.
Like what is Wentz going to be able to do?
Not much Like they're gonna play man on the outside
and Wentz is They're not going to have time to
get open. So there's gonna be lots of negative plays here.

(13:45):
I wouldn't be surprised if, like Garrett strips, Wentz causes
a couple turnovers. So yeah, it's not the best spot
and there's a lot of variants because it's a rookie quarterback.
But I think the Browns rely on the run, rely
on their d This total is down to thirty six.
There's no weather, it's so low. I mean, I could
see this game, honestly, shout to all the people in London,

(14:08):
this is the treat we're giving you. I could see
this game ending like ten to seven, honestly. So I
had to take the points where total as low. With
the Vikings offensive line and Wentz at quarterback against this defense,
I'll take the points.

Speaker 2 (14:23):
I do think the Minnesota is in a weird spot here.
You know, then they get the Eagles, then they get
at the Chargers, then they play the Lions, and then
you know, depending on when JJ's ready to come back.
If it's in that stretch, you just you can find
yourself you're back against the wall a little bit with
this completely unproven quarterback with some injuries. Season kind of

(14:47):
get away from you in that you realize, Yeah, so
it's like, I know the Packers are kind of struggling,
but the Lions clearly are solid, and let's face the
Bears are gonna be feisty.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
Yeah, you can tick it too far by in that division,
But I do assume Garrett will play. In the past,
He's done this a bunch. He he's probably the best
defensive player and you know, throwing out him parsons, but
he just doesn't like to practice sometimes, so he'll just
say he has an injury, and then he'll like, uh,
he like drives up to like the local gas station

(15:18):
in Cleveland and just hangs out like eat seeds with
like people like just instead of practicing. So uh, Garrett
has done that in the past. He's just like, I
don't feel like practicing this week, and so he'll be like,
my ankle hurts. I don't know, he could have an injury.

Speaker 2 (15:34):
But when you're when you're when you're that, when you're
that good, I mean, who even cares. He's he's at
like the level of like, yeah, I don't even complain.
Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor,
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(16:19):
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(16:39):
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(17:48):
Denver at Philly, I saw, I've seen it twice now,
the montage of the passes in the second half. I
mean it was pretty ugly. Philly's in this weird spot, right, Champs.
They just keep winning. AJ clearly is not happy. And
every week that goes by, that dude's throwing a little
gas lean on the fire. He has another week and
this is clearly gonna be a tough week. Given that

(18:10):
you know, Denver secondary is pretty good. I can't imagine
Jalen's just all of a sudden against this team's gonna
throw for three hundred yards, so you're gonna get Eventually
he's gonna crack and just I if I'm prognosticating, is
in like a couple of weeks he's gonna come out
and said everything Brandon Graham said last year was true.
I was forced to lie and pretend it wasn't. Like
we're a couple of weeks away from that. Denver, like,

(18:32):
I don't know what to really make against Cincinnati. You
talk about Minnesota's offensive line, issu's that offensive line, it's
fucking atrocious. I get Denver's got a good pass rush,
but that was it. I mean, even if you put
Burrow in that spot, he would have been I mean
there were a couple of plays where you're like, is
Brown ain't gonna be able to get up? I mean
he was getting destroyed. But I don't know, man, I mean,

(18:52):
how often can you play with an offense that can't
pass the ball. The pressure it's putting on the defense.
I kind of like den in the spot plus three
and a half. I actually don't really hate him just
outright in this.

Speaker 1 (19:04):
Game, Yeah, I could see them winning this game now
is a short week coming across the country. But I
did play Denver. There's still four and a half I
think out there, if you shop around, I think with
maybe a four.

Speaker 2 (19:17):
How does Jalen play so well in the Super Bowl
and then struggle to pass so much?

Speaker 1 (19:21):
It's it's insane. It's it's an enigma. I do think
the offensive coordinator it's a huge downgrade. So you can
just see it in the play creativity. But the Eagles
are a lot worse than were last year defensively, Like
they're just they're like a mid by all of the
the metrics. They're like an average defense so far this year.
Jalen Carter might not play, that's pretty big news. Lane

(19:43):
Johnson might not play. That would be massive. I mean,
Lane Johnson might be their best offensive player like that,
which is crazy to say, but he's like might be,
you know, because you have Barkley Brown, but Lane Johnson
is that dominant. The Eagles are one oh five fifty
five and one with Lane Johnson. It's a sixty seven
percent win percentage. Without them, they're a fifteen to twenty

(20:03):
three under forty percent. They had nine plays for negative
nine yards without them. In the second half against the
Bucks last week. So yeah, but the offensive line in general,
like especially if you take Johnson out, the entire interior
like they're not I don't think they're fully healthy, but
the intererer is playing really poorly. Johnson is now hurt.
I mean, look at Barkley. Barkley in the second half
last year second half of games, averaged six point six

(20:26):
point seven yards per carry. This year, he's averaging two
point seven. So like, there's no there's no explosiveness. The
run game isn't even there, the passing game isn't there.
That bot of it, I think is the coordinator. The
offensive line has dropped off, and the defense lost a
lot of talent. So this team is getting by on
smoking mirrors. I mean, they beat the Rams, they were
down nineteen. They went on a block field goal. The

(20:47):
Bucks last week they had they had negative nine yards
in the second half. Now it includes a negative thirty
yard safety. So but really they had twenty total yards
of offense, Like when twenty three plays. They don't get
a block punt in that game, and they're playing a
Bucks team that was decimated by injuries. Get fortune in
that game, like the Cowboys game could have went either way.

(21:09):
The Chiefs the Chiefs Kelsey drops a touchdown and turns
into an interception at the one. So like, this team
has been so lucky and now you're going up against
this Broncos defense, but with your offensive line issues, and
like the one thing that they could do is they throw,
like they either throw like a slant to Brown when
they do throw to them, or like this just like

(21:30):
get out of jail free, like comeback round. But you're
gonna be going against Pat certain bry the best cover corner
in the laitue, so like, good luck doing that. He
can take that away. So yeah, I think, and I
think the Eagles run dye this year is a lot worse.
I mean they're thirtieth in rush success rate. So Denver
can lean on its ground game here. This should be
a lower scoring game. There's this like the dog, it's

(21:56):
a dog or nothing. And I agree with you. I
did play Denver.

Speaker 2 (21:58):
This's got like ten three at half and as the
Eagles are running off the field getting booed, Yeah that's
what and I'm with you, And this is I mean,
it's no slide. I mean the Eagles have created two
offensive coordinators to become head coaches. It's just hard to
replace your offensive coordinator every year.

Speaker 1 (22:17):
This happened a couple of years ago, Brian Johnson. Their
offense is, yeah, a disaster, but they're the Eagles are
like the new Chiefs, like they're just they won the
Super Bowl and then it looks ugly, but they just
win somehow on like weird things by the three.

Speaker 2 (22:32):
So like all your metrics, all your metrics that you're saying,
I think Eagles fans would be like, okay, well, clearly
the Chiefs are gonna be pretty good.

Speaker 1 (22:40):
Now.

Speaker 2 (22:40):
They beat the Chiefs and they beat two of the
best teams in the NFC, so it's like you can
say whatever you want, but we fucking won the game
they didn't.

Speaker 1 (22:47):
Which is all Chiefs fans used to say. Like last
year the Chiefs won eleven, they went eleven and all
one session games, and then their offense like hurts and
they turn it on in the playoffs like they're they're
the new Chiefs. But I played the Broncos here. They're
Their defense as of right now, will be the best
union on the field. So yeah, I think in the
lower scoring game, you got to take over a field.

Speaker 2 (23:09):
Goal Okay, let's talk about the AFC forty nine ers.
Your entire team is injured. Welcome to the party. And
I saw the number I think was it Monday morning
when I looked at the board that the Texans were like,
it was like plus one and a half. It is
now looking at it right now, they're minus one and
a half. All signs point to Lamar Jackson not playing

(23:30):
hamstring and you know, obviously that's enormous. But defensively, you know,
even if Lamar was playing, if Houston couldn't get right
against this unit, given their majority of their good players
are not gonna play, it would have been a major
red flag on the Texans. But if Lamar doesn't play
and all the defensive guys are clearly out, this Baltimore team,

(23:51):
it's got a little year from hell Field, doesn't it.

Speaker 1 (23:54):
Yep? Yeah, it's a mess. I mean, like, not only
is it Lamar, Like the look the AAD live for
this game is like Raven's minus ten and then there
was like seven and a half out there earlier this week,
So I made this around nine and a half ten
and it would have been a really good Raven spot.
But then with all the injuries, and I'm talking like

(24:17):
Ronnie Stanley's he's hurt, he's banged up. If he doesn't
play against you, you know you're going up against two of
the best edge rushers with Cooper rush back there, and
your offense changes drastically. But on defense, your whole defensive
line is hurt. Not a bouquet, your most important one
is out for the year, ropewand Smith, your best linebacker,
Kyle van Ney, Nate Wagan's, Marlon Humphrey. I mean you're talking.

(24:37):
I mean you're talking like seven, six, seven, eight starters,
most of them Pro Bowlers, that could be out. So
then I have to take the Ravens down a couple
of points. I would project around seven, and then you
got to take Lamar out, which he's worth probably about
a touchdown. So I make this around a pick. Am
I that confident in the number? No, Like I I'm
trying to measure the I don't know exactly who's gonna

(24:59):
be out either, but just the amount of plus or injuries.
This this defense right now looks like the worst defense
in the league, which makes sense if you're playing with
that five or six your whole d line and then
five or six pro Bowlers. Tell me another team in
the league that can survive that, like everyone is coming
for zach Or's head. I have no idea. Like anyone
that took the Texans with a plus sign early in

(25:20):
the week probably a good bet. I won't be betting this.
I have zero clue. And uh yeah, it's a shame
that you want to know, is living a charmed life?
Is the the Rams they get? Now, maybe the gods
are paying paying them back for that blocked field goal.
They should pay me back. I haven't gotten any rewards

(25:42):
yet from that because I lost money on that. You know,
they get the eighty Mitchell dropped touchdown at the one
which flipped that game. Then they get the forty nine
Ers who have are decimated extra rest, and then they
play the Ravens next week, who are decimated. That's supposed
to be two of their hardest games on the scale,
and they might get both teams with just a bunch

(26:04):
of backups, which is massive for the season. So the
Rams are running well. But you know, I think that
because the Ravens have been so bad, Like people might think, oh,
the Chiefs offenses back, I don't know. I think that
was all about the Ravens date. Look at last week
the Lions. Everyone's talking about the Oh we'll get the

(26:26):
Lions said to Baltimore, I mean the Chiefs put up
thirty eight. Like the Ravens defense is not bad of shape.
Which is why I had to play the Bengals this week,
because you think about it, the Lions got to play
the Bears. The Bears whole secondary was out. They played
the Ravens with all of their defensive injuries, and then
last week against the Browns, it was like the Browns
turning the ball over and they got to play at

(26:47):
home the Bengals at plus ten and a half at home,
I had to play. It's ugly. Who wants to play
the Bengals after what you saw last week? But Browning
has like functioned at least in the past as a
quarterback and this is I think the just the very
bottom of the market on the Bengals. They're gonna be
at home. They just had to play Flores and the

(27:07):
Broncos defenses on the road and two of the hardest
environments in the NFL. Now, how are they gonna get stops?
I don't know, but like ten and a half, they
can probably keep up here. I mean, this is a
Lions team. That's what they ranked twenty eighth in past
rush win rate. So it's not going to be like
everyone is in the backfield right away. Both of their
starting corners are going to be out here. Going up

(27:29):
against Jason Higgins, You're probably gonna have like they got
to kick their nickel out get the Rocky House. Sin
is probably gonna start at the other corner spot. You
might have to move like Branch down to nickel or
put in Devonte Maddocks, who's terrible. It's like their corners
are are going to be really bad here. So yeah,
I think this is a good by low Sell high spot.
Lions feeling good. They got the Chiefs on deck. The

(27:51):
Lions are blitzing at the highest right in the league
this year, and Browning actually his decent numbers against the
blitz in his career, including this year. It's like the
one thing that he's done well. And for what it's worth,
home dogs of ten plus over the last twenty years
seventy four fifty six and one fifty seven percent off
a loss of two plus touchdowns, sixty percent against the spread.

(28:13):
Home dogs after scoring three or fewer points again home dog.
They just scored through a three front. Who wants to
bet those teams? Well sixty one, thirty six and two
against the spread sixty three percent. So yeah, I don't
know how they're going to stop Detroit, but they can
keep up here, So I think it's a good good
time to buylo on the Bengals.

Speaker 2 (28:34):
Okay, one interesting NFC game is in theory Tampa going
to Seattle. But Bull said they have so many injuries
that they had to change practice to essentially a walk
through on Wednesday. I can't imagine that gets much better
throughout the week the Tampa. I mean, we have an
injury epidemic. I mean, you and I have talked a
lot about it. I've talked a lot about on the show.
It kind of sucks. I mean there was one point
in time Sunday I looked up in the morning Slate

(28:57):
and there were multiple carts out on multiple games and
there were other players laying on the field. It's pretty nuts.
You know. It's not It's not even just season enders
like Tyreek Hill. It's guys limping off like Joe Ault
with high ankle spring. It's all over the league, and
it's it's October first, we got we got a long
way to go, and there's just not enough players in

(29:19):
the NFL. The product. I'm not trying to be a
negative Nancy here, but geez, it's just I don't know
the answer. We're never going back to like double days
in training camp and pads during the regular season. But
it is impacting these guys, the callouses on their body
like a fighter right preason.

Speaker 1 (29:36):
There's a joke les preseason.

Speaker 2 (29:38):
It's a joke.

Speaker 1 (29:40):
Yeah, And we've talked about this before because of I
think the NFL also has to get rid of like that,
some of these turfs. But like you see after the
Giants game, there was what are we doing? But you
see this especially with offensive lines, so there's just no
So there's like the offensive line talent compared to the

(30:03):
defensive line town in the NFL, the offensive lines are
so far behind. A lot of it is just because
how these colleges operate offenses, and there's just a lack
of viable, starting caliber offensive line in the NFL. So
like these teams lose one or two and their offensive

(30:23):
line is just decrept it it's a disaster. So yeah,
I mean you're seeing that with the Bucks. Right now,
the Bucks have two backups in on the right side
of their offensive line, no Evans. It looks like no
Bucky Irving, which is massive. They have also a ton
of injuries on defense. Raddick gains Cancs out for the year,

(30:45):
Dean and Morrison the rookie. Morrison's looked really good, but
Dean they're starting corner, but they have corner cluster injuries,
and it looks like the Seahawks are pretty healthy outside
of Lawrence is who I have to check on this week,
and it's a good extra rest at home. They're off
the Thursday night game Tampa, coming across the country, dealing

(31:06):
with a lot of injuries. Practice disrupted. The way to
beat Baker and the way to beat Baker forever and
still this year. If you look at his numbers is
pressure without blitzing. If you blitz him, he's storically been
pretty good against the blitz. He'll scramble just he'll gash
you up the middle, find a lane. But if you
can get pressure quickly and then play coverage on the

(31:28):
back end, he's going to make some mistakes, and he's
due for some mistakes. He's had a great year and
he's had a great run in Tampa, but he has
nine touchdowns, one interception, his nine turnover where he plays
in the year, like, there's been a ton of drop picks. Well,
that's the definition of the Seattle defense. They are top
five in pressure eight bottom two and blitzerrate. They don't

(31:49):
blitz and they're getting a ton of pressure, and then
you have McDonald disguising coverages on the back end, and
that's a dangerous combo and it's probably gonna lead to
some Baker mistakes. Sam Donald over the last two years
is destroying the blitz. He's been so good against the
blitz it's insane if you look at his numbers, and
you're gonna get that against bulls and this is gonna

(32:10):
be an under man defense. So, yeah, I played the Seahawks.
Anything three or better I think is good.

Speaker 2 (32:17):
Baker's only interception is the one he threw against Philly
in the end zone.

Speaker 1 (32:20):
Yeah, he had like three. He's had like six or
seven drops dropped interceptions. He also has had three or
four fumbles that the Tampa all recovered. So, like, they've
been very fortunate in a lot of games. Most of
their all their wins, they could have went either way.
They went by two to two and two. I think, so, yeah,
there's some turnovers coming for this Bucks offense, and they're

(32:43):
just not healthy right now. He's probably gonna be under
pressure and expect McDonald to cook up some nice disguises
on the back end to get a turnover or two.
So yeah, I do like Seattle there. It's a pretty
good spot matchup, and then you throw in the injuries.
It's it's it's gonna be a tough ask for the Bucks.

Speaker 2 (33:01):
Well, the comedy's got the Jade Daniels is gonna play
this week. So you got the Chargers, who are a
good example kind of like the Bucks. And like a
lot of these teams, your left tackles out, your right
tackle who's a stud, moves to left tackle. Now he's out.
Uh you just Beckton has been out. I mean you
just got There's no way to replace these holes. Like
you can put a band aid on this later thing

(33:23):
because of Alt, but once he disappears, I don't want
to give a shit who you are. They're just not
enough tackles in the league that are functional, and I
it can to.

Speaker 1 (33:33):
Pro Bowl Calber tackles and then lose them both and
expect to be Okay.

Speaker 2 (33:36):
You're completely screwed now. Luckily they're quarterbacks mobile. But like,
I just short you when that situation happens, because I
think it gets hard to function. And this is an
offensive coach in staff. I mean, Hardbot doesn't call the
plays but Roman. Ironically, they've been passing a lot more
this year, right, more than Roman ever has. But I
mean their quarterback looks like, you know, an MVP level guy,

(33:58):
but it's gonna be hard to drop back. I don't
care who you're playing. It could be the Broncos or
it could be the worst pass res in the league.
When you have this level of talent on the missing,
your guy's gonna be under siege. These guys are not
gonna be able to block. So I I kind of
like the comment the I almost call them the commoders
the commanders here plus two and a half.

Speaker 1 (34:17):
I don't know. I can't bet this game just because
there's so much uncertainty, But yeah, the offensive line is
a mess for the Chargers, so I don't know what
they're gonna do. The fact also, Bradley Bozman, their center
has been the worst center in the league. So they
signed Andre James from the Raiders. Do they They might
go to him if backed in his back, they might
kick Salar out to left tackle. He's played there before

(34:41):
like a couple of times when all it was out,
But now you're like you're moving all kind there's like
no and they're in tier was already the question. So
it's a mess. I mean now, now, the Washington the
Commanders defense is not the Giants defense. They don't have
the same guys up front, but it's still could be
a disaster. But I don't know if they're to try
to run it more now, So I don't not from

(35:03):
a game script perspective, I don't know what the Chargers
are going to do. And then on the other side,
so I would agree with your premise that, hey, I
want to short this team, but I also don't know
if Daniels is going to be one, and like him
having his full mobility and being able to use his
legs is one of his biggest attributes. So yeah, with

(35:27):
the offensive line questions and then just washing his other
injuries too, like McLaurin, Yeah, that is for me a
purece die away. Only the other games that I played,
and they're gross. I played the Saints when they were
an underdog. But I think the Saints beat the Giants.
It starts first road start. Quarterbacks in their first two

(35:48):
starts ever in the NFL, by the way, on the
road are thirteen and thirty four straight up. There's no neighbors.
They have tape on what they want to do. The
Saints have been frisky, like they've been in games with teams.
I think they get their first win here, and their
Rundy's been good. The Giants run he has been the
worst than the league. These are two teams that want
to rely on the run. So I took the Saints.
I did take the Jets against the Cowboys. Cowboys off

(36:12):
an overtime game, like just training game. Jets have been
really unlucky in a couple of games this year. I
think they're going to beat the Cowboys. And then I
played the Panthers, and I think a good spot against
the Dolphins. Those are the other Yeah, if you could tell,
I've got a lot of great teams this week.

Speaker 2 (36:26):
Okay, I mean it's it's not a great it's not
a great slate. The New England Buffalo game in theory
is interesting Sunday night. I don't quite know what to
make in New England. I mean, you Curb stomped the Panthers.
Are they good? And you know you beat Miami in
a weird game the Buffalo you know you nailed that
last week against the Saints. I mean that was what

(36:48):
was that? Plus? Was a fifteen and a half? Is
that what the game.

Speaker 1 (36:50):
Ended at the Saints? We're in that like that?

Speaker 2 (36:52):
That was close? The game was closed? I agree, Uh,
this is a game that you know, I would imagine
Buffalo's had complete ownership over this. A vision, I don't know.
I mean, I I eight points a lot. But to me,
if I'm betting this game, I'm taking Buffalo on the points.

Speaker 1 (37:08):
Yeah, I gotta wait on injuries here. So the Bill's
defense right now is a mess, and part of that
is injuries. Milano and at Oliver, their best defensive linemen
have been hurt and have been out, and they can't
stop the run. But the Patriots can't run the ball.
This year, Drake may has been good, even though his
protection's been bad and his receivers aren't great from a

(37:30):
separation standpoint, but he's actually looked pretty good. But he's
like taking too many sacks and the Bills are getting
still getting a ton of pressure. They're one of the
top pressure right teams in the league, so there could
be a lot of negative plays here to kill drives,
and the Patriots aren't going to get as much pressure,
so Alan is most likely here going to just abuse

(37:51):
the middle of the field. The Patriots probably have their
safeties are struggling, and they probably had the worst coverage
linebackers in the league by a wide margin. Like over
the middle of the field. Alan can probably carve them up,
but I gotta wait on the injuries. Spencer Brown, their
right tackle. Will he go Milano and Oliver So I

(38:11):
haven't done anything with that, but it does. It also
feels like the pitches could be down fourteen and then
have a chance to get a back door, which may
has done a bunch, but there's injuries on the Bills.
That's that's who you need to monitor, because their d
has been really, really bad. I mean they the Saints
average like six yards per carry on like I don't know,

(38:32):
thirty five forty carries last week. They were going up
and down the field. If they didn't throw a pick
on a Philly special and you know, drop a touchdown
like they could have won that game, and it was
because the Bills defense could not get off the field.
So yeah, I have no strong feel now waiting on
some key injuries there.

Speaker 2 (38:50):
Okay, let's get to the Monday night game because you go, well,
three and a half feels, you know the Chiefs. I
like Chiefs in the spot Mys three and a half.
Here's the thing, Jackson was good on defense. They're creating
a ton of turnovers. They scored twenty six points last week.
Seven of them came on a punt return, three more
came on a terrible kickoff coverage. Again, the forty nine

(39:11):
ers are off on special teams. They get a field
goal that's ten points. Etn touchdown came on a fumble
and he immediately scores on a long touchdown. So it's
not like their offense is putting together these long drives.
I don't think Trevor Lawrence is good. Brian Thomas has
had issues with like I don't know, not being into it,
slash kind of banged up. Travis Hunter's just not done anything.

(39:33):
So to me, I just like the Chiefs in this spot.

Speaker 1 (39:37):
I disagree with you. So this is the first time
I'm going to disagree this week I played the Jags.
Any I think anything about three or cheap three is good.
Like I'm not buying into the like worthy helps, but
they still can't run the ball. Mahomes should have a
bunch more turnovers. This offensive line isn't solved. Like there's
been some drop picks. He's dropped, he's had a couple

(39:59):
of fumbles throwing it backwards, and they've been pretty lucky
in that department. But so I'm not sold the offensive
six because last week, again, I think it was all
about the Ravens date, like you were playing a bunch
of backups. This Jaguars team is so improved from a
coaching standpoint. It's on both sides of the ball. Their defense,
they're actually playing more coverages that suit their the back end,

(40:21):
their front seven is good.

Speaker 2 (40:23):
The D is good. Their D is good.

Speaker 1 (40:25):
Yeah, the D is one of the most improved in
the league, and they have one of the best special
teams units in the league. But yes, there is some
some turnover regression because they've forced four turn They've they
forced at least three turnovers in all four games. They
have thirteen takeaways on the year. Last year they had
nine total for the entire season, so you can talk

(40:48):
about regression. They were due, but they're probably now due
to They're not going to continue to get that. So
the offense Cohen is putting him into, like their offense
is so well schemed, like their running game, Like their
offensive line is bad. They don't have a ton of
that talent, but they're still able to put up points.
They should be putting up more if they had more talent,
And like they weren't dropping. They lead the league in drops.

(41:09):
They have like sixteen drops on the year. The next
most I think is the Jets with nine, so drops
have been killing them and then like just Lawrence making
some dumb throws. But like the screen game, the running game,
like everything is so well schooled. So I'm not all
the way in on this Chiefs offense being backed. Now

(41:29):
when they get Rice back, it could be scary, but
they still can't run the ball. The offensive line still
has issues. I think this Jags team is still undervalued
a bit. I get that you might be a little
salty after they beat your your forty nine ers and
they definitely didn't look it mean they won the turn
of a battle four nothing, But I yeah, I took
the Jags as a home dog should be a good
one there. I can see people making the case for

(41:51):
the for the Chiefs for sure, though.

Speaker 2 (41:53):
Yeah, it's actually if you would have said Jaguars Monday
Night football, you'd be like, oh, but this is actually
a pretty good mondayn football game. I'm pretty excited, especially
coming off what we just witnessed sit on a couple

(42:19):
of college games. We'd kind of have this thing circled
at the beginning of the season when we thought Florida
was gonna be feisty. Obviously their coach is gonna get
fired and their team isn't very good, but I do
think that defensively, they've obviously been awesome. Even if guys
were about ready to check out and get ready to

(42:40):
hit the transfer portal when he does eventually get fired.
Here either this, you know, during the season or at
the end of the year. This is an easy one
because it's like, if you're the defensive coordinator, we get
to play arch manning. And so if you do want
to make a lot of money, a lot of people
are going to be paying attention to this game, So
let's go kick his ass. Like this is just I
don't know, I mean Texas has played nobody since that

(43:01):
first game. Arch has been horrendous. No one can get
to the bottom of if he's injured. They keep pushing
back everyone that knows anything about throwing mechanics slash. It's like,
this doesn't make any sense. Something's gotta be like, they're
gonna be out for blood. Defensively, now offensively they've blown
we know Texas go. I'm not saying that Florida's winning
this game, but is Arch' gonna be able to throw

(43:24):
for one hundred and fifty? Are they gonna be able
to move the ball against this team if they try again?
The trifactor makes me a little nervous. But young kids,
it's still early October. This is their last two raw
throw everything you got, maybe lose the game like ten
to six, and then mail it in for the season.
But I do think Florida's defense will look like the
defense we've been seeing flying around, specifically for this game

(43:47):
and this quarterback. So I like Florida plus six and
a half.

Speaker 1 (43:50):
Yeah, I especially if you get a seven. But at six,
I think you got to take the points here. I mean,
this total is forty one. It's insane. You said that
before the year versus Arch in the totals forty one.
That's how bad these offenses have been. But yeah, I mean,
hou's Florida gonna move the ball well? First of all,
Texican toa move ball, I don't know. I mean Texas

(44:10):
couldn't move it against Utap like they Arch was like
eleven of twenty five for one hundred and thirty four yards.
Now both teams are got a buye. So like who fixed?
What was there something to fix? I will say like
Lagway didn't work with he was hurt in the offseason,
so and he was dealing with some injuries. Maybe he's
gonna look healthier and he got some timing down with

(44:31):
his receivers. There is a name to know which could
change their offense because somehow Lagway was known for deep passing,
was the best deep ball passer in college football last year.
They have no passes over twenty yards this year, not zero.
They think they're the only team without any that was
supposed to be like they were supposed to be one
of the best doing that. But there's a kid who's

(44:51):
gonna make his debut. He's supposed to be their best receiver.
He's a five star freshman Dallas Wilson. It looks like
he's gonna play this week in the spring game against
what we're seeing is a really good Florida defense. He
had ten catches for one hundred and ninety five yards
and two touchdowns, so h he's an absolute stud. So
it looks like he's gonna play. We'll see if that
can unlock some deep shots. But yeah, I think Florida

(45:14):
will care here at home against Texas, Like you know,
you're gonna get a top ten team like this is
off of the buy that still lot some juice. The
swamp will have some juice. So and look they everyone
thought they were gonna quit last year under Napier and
they still came out and fought every week. So yeah,
I think you got to take the points with just
all the uncertain that you can't trust this Texas offense

(45:37):
right now laying points against what looks like an elite defense,
and they're doing with that getting like they're not getting
much pressure and they're just fundamentally sound. They're not gonna
let Arch scramble, which is like what his best attribute
is right now, So yeah, I think you got to
take the points there. Uh, like look out for keep

(45:57):
an eye on Them for Dallas Wilson.

Speaker 2 (46:00):
One of the great rivalries in college football. I had
gone to the Ryder Cup and had a few cocktails,
and then we got back I had a few more.
One thing I noticed about in New York City it's
not I would say, it's not college football heavy. We
went to multiple bars, baseball's everywhere. There's some boxing on,
you know. It's just it's like, I'm not gonna bother
these people to try to put on Florida State Miami.

(46:21):
We ended up going to dinner. So I really didn't
see much of this game. I didn't see any of
it really. I just saw the outcome, which clearly was
a pretty big deal for the universe. So it was
Florida State, you know, cause you look back, I did watch,
like everyone Bama Georgia, and you god, they beat this team.
That's that's pretty impressive. Now, clearly Bama looks dramatically different.

(46:42):
A month later. I would imagine if they played again,
I think we'd all like Alabama in that spot. Yeah,
Tys Simpson looks fancy. I thought it was incredible in
that game relative to what I thought of him, you know,
a month ago. But you know this is a spot
for Florida State. It is Florida State good. I don't know.
We all agree Miami's freaking load, especially defensively their defensive line.

(47:04):
I guess you just take Miami minus four and a half.
It isn't Florida State that that tomahawk chop gets going.
But what do you make were they looking ahead against Virginia?
Is Virginia a little better than we think?

Speaker 1 (47:14):
Virginia's offense is definitely good. Channla Morris is playing really well.
They hit some guys in the portal like they went
out and spend a ton of money, So their offense
does look legit. Yeah, they might have been peeking ahead
a bit, feeling themselves a little bit. I do like
the Costianos and that like they can he is mobile
and they're gonna run at a ton and they can

(47:35):
put those defensive ends in conflict. And so I think
Florida State can move the ball here. And you know,
whenever these Florida teams play like all these Florida kids,
I'm always inclined to take the points. But you know,
because if you look what Miami has done this year,
like the Notre Dame defense, hasn't been as good as

(47:57):
we thought. It's been actually pretty bad up and up
until last week. They got South Florida in a dream spot,
like an absolute nightmare spot for South Florida, who was
coming off two rank wins. Uh, Which when does that?
When is South Florida that ev in South Florida and

(48:18):
then they're playing their third straight ranked team and Miami
was coming off of a bye, and then Miami played
this broken Florida team and you know that didn't do much.
I mean, he threw for one hundred and fifty yards,
the only average four yards per carries. So maybe we
overrated this Miami offense a little bit, which is a

(48:39):
thought that I've had. So I expect Florida State to
bounce back. I think that this offense can have success
against this Miami defense with the way that they use
Costianus's legs. But I do think Miami is the best
team in the country in the trenches on both sides
of the ball. That matters a lot, and that that

(49:00):
could get them far in the College Football Playoff and
just this season in general. So I don't have a
strong feel yet. My first I have to break that
one down some more. If you are into college, will
break down that game in depth in the entire slate
on Big Bets on Campus Regulus to the podcast. My
first inclination is to take the points, but I don't
have a strong feeling yet and I have not put

(49:23):
any money down on that game.

Speaker 2 (49:25):
The ure LSU ticket to win the Natty.

Speaker 1 (49:27):
That's done. You think they're done, They're done. They don't
have an offensive line, their offensive line. They the hope
was this brand new offensive line they couldn't run the
ball last year, was gonna be able to gel and
they would have a run game and they didn't have
any run game last year, and then that could provide
balance to the But they don't have a run game,
and they can't protect. They can't protect their quarterback. I

(49:52):
can't even think of his name, Smyer, who people are
saying now he might be hurt. There's rumors that he
might be hurt now for the year. So their defense
is really good, but I don't think there. Their offense
has their offensive line has it. The end the SEC
is just way too difficult. They needed to get that
old Miss game. So I mean they could still make

(50:12):
a run, but I don't see it with the way
that their offense looks and and by the way you
have to look back, their data points now age much
worse because they beat Clemson. Clemson is a disaster, so
they beat that, that win looks much worse. Everyone's beating Clemson.
I mean, Sarahcuse is beating Clemson at Clemson. And then

(50:33):
they beat Florida, but I mean, blag way through five picks,
they still only one by ten and Florida has been
a mess. So like those two wins that look great
don't look as right now. And then I just think
the offensive line has too many issues. So yeah, I
don't see it happening. I'll be rooting for it, but
as of right now, I can't see it with the

(50:54):
state of state of that offensive line. Still no run game,
and now the pass protection is worse because now have
four NFL guys, four guys that are now in the
NFL protecting you.

Speaker 2 (51:03):
Someone sent me a clip of an Oregon like fan
page put together this like montage of people talking shit.

Speaker 1 (51:11):
I think I was on that.

Speaker 2 (51:13):
Yeah, you were, you were he never more had never
played in a big game, which was factually true, and uh,
you know, it's crazy Oregon. I mean they have you know,
coward who's from the Northwest as always said, like they
are the one brand new team to college football and
the internet age, Like Miami's been around forever, right, Ohio
State's been around forever, George Alabama long history. It's like

(51:36):
Oregon's history started. Is by far the newest team because
of Phil Knight and Nike, and they are just like
you could tell, like I love that jersey scheme. When
they came out and those I was like, damn, they
look pretty sweet. That tight ends a monster and that
quarterback like five star guy, like you said, you never
know how these guys are going to react, but he's
way better than the other guy. And it's like I

(51:57):
wanted to like aler you and I pounded the able
to get this new offensive coordinator, like I'm sorry, I'm out,
like you, you can't win and who knows they can
still make the playoffs or whatever like that, there's no chance,
Like no, I don't even think he's beating anyone good
in the playoffs. So it's just now I think, you know, Miami,
Ohio State, Georgia, Bama, Oregon, like we're starting to get

(52:19):
a little separation. I think would would you throw ole
miss in there, or it's just they're not quite on
that level now.

Speaker 1 (52:26):
Their offensive line is bad, their defense is still really bad.
They I don't think they could put together any type
of deep run. Uh. You know my and I was,
I was dead wrong on Oregon. I had a lot
of money on Penn State minus three getting a close
like four or four and a half. The market agree
with me, but theyally the market was wrong. I was wrong.
I wanted to see more in those freshmen in a

(52:48):
huge environment and they were they they did it, and
I thought Penn State was holding was they had at
buy they were not showing anything. Well, here's the here's
what the side of that game. You know, aller wasn't great,
but the Oregon beat the shit out of them on
the offensive line on both sides of the ball. And
Oregon have a rebuilt offense line and rebuilt like the

(53:10):
recruits that they've got on the defensive line. They're all
young too, they're gonna be around for another year. Like
they dominated that game with the line of scrimmage and
more than make any mistakes. And yeah, they deserve to
win that game. They didn't even deserve to go to overtime.
You know, Penn State got pretty lucky that it went
to overtime, So yeah, they look very good. If I
had to throw another team in the mix, I would

(53:35):
probably throw in Texas A and M. I think Elko
is starting to get that defense rounded in the form
he's that's was basically his primary job this offseason. And
their offense looks really explosive with they have two really
I mean, they're receivers Craver and concepsi own and they

(53:57):
have one of the best offensive lines in college football,
one of the best running I mean, they have like
a thre ed of monster in the backfield led by
Le'Veon Moss, a mobile quarterback Marcel Reed. Looks to be
getting better. You might say, oh, they only beat Auburn
sixteen to ten. They out gained them four fifteen to
one seventy like just a completely fluky game. They dominated

(54:17):
that game. They went, you know, they won at Notre Dame. Already,
they're fourteen and a half point favorites against Mississippi State
this week. Then they're gonna get Florida. They go to
Arkansas like this is a team that's probably gonna be
seven and oh, then they go to LSU, who might
be broken. They have South Carolina Stamford at home, They're

(54:39):
at Missouri. It was pretty good, but they could win
that game. And then they closed the season at Texas.
I'll tell you right now, I want to I'd take
Texas a and I remember Texas right now unless I
see anything more from March. So this is a team
that could if they go ten to two, they're going
to the College Wall playoff. I mean, especially with a
win an SEC team, and they have a win at
Notre Dame, one of the best non conference wins of

(55:00):
the season. But there's a chance they could go eleven
and one. But I think they have a really good
chot to ten to two. And if Elco starts to
round this defense in the form and it looked that
to be the case last week against Auburn. Their offense
looks electric and they have that they have the offensive line,
I like their coach, their running game, the receivers. That's

(55:21):
a team that could be one that makes a run
that not many are talking about.

Speaker 2 (55:26):
And I would say Oklahoma. I mean that news on
the quarterback is just I mean three weeks sounds best
cases is throwing hand to grip the ball. I mean
that's pretty fucking devastating.

Speaker 1 (55:35):
Yeah, well the problem for Oklahoma is that and then
their schedule, like I just mentioned Texas, A and M schedule
pretty reasonable for a SEC team, but like Oklahoma still
has what they have Texas on the neutral they have
Ole mess But how do.

Speaker 2 (55:56):
They win that game with a backup quarterback?

Speaker 1 (55:58):
Yeah, it's gonna be tough. Well, it's their defense if
Arch is a disaster. He just went it in thirteen ten. Yeah,
but that they're at Tennessee, They're at Alabama, and then
they close with Missouri and LSU. So their schedule is
brutal and uh yeah, the injury throws a wrench into that.
So we'll see when the teer can come back. But

(56:18):
it's gonna be tough if they're not fully healthy and
they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country.

Speaker 2 (56:24):
You know what I'm happy for is Kailin de Boor
because that Florida State game, which was jarring to watch
his body of work, like he just that that was
an outlier game of his career. He beat Kirby twice.
I mean, their team's rolling right now. And Ryan Williams
isn't even good, you know. I mean Ryan Williams like,
you get some people. I've heard some Bama people like

(56:44):
bench them, let's get this guy. We don't even need him.
And what he's doing with Ty Simpson is like Canada
bor is pretty freaking good. And I would say Alabama's
on the come right now.

Speaker 1 (56:56):
Yeah, the Boor's like he's won wherever he's gone. He
out coached Kirby early. Like the way I thought about
that game is I wanted to bet Georgia live because
I figured that the bor Is gonna have a really
good plan and I mean Kirby's when he's probably the
best in game adjuster. And that's what happened. But Albama
was able to hold on. I mean, i'ven't didn't score
in the second half. But Simpson looks much more comfortable.

(57:17):
De Bor's biggest problem has been which is very shocking
for coach, one of the best coaches in coage football.
He's had a couple of games where they're like big
favorites and they show up and they look like they're
not prepared and they kind of like take the opponent. Lately.
We saw that last year against like Oklahoma, Michigan in
the bowl game, Vanderbilt Florida State earlier this year, and

(57:40):
Alabama still and this goes back to the saving days,
but so they struggle with mobile quarterbacks and that's what
they're going to see this week with Diego Pavia and
this Vanderbilt offense, which is a wagon right now. I
mean their offense is you look at like a adjusted
for opponent. They them in USC have the two best
offense in the country talking passing and rushing offenses. They
are have been unbelievable. Their defense isn't that good. They're

(58:03):
probably not gonna get that many stops. I don't hate
the over in this game. It's yeah, ten and a half.
I won't bet against Vandy as their coaching staff is
awesome too. I won't bet against Bobby as a dog.
I mean he is at at Bandy. He's ten and
two against the spread as an underdog with seven outright

(58:25):
wins and most of those I mean, he's winning games
when he's like twenty one twenty four point underdog's twenty seven,
like it's insane. But I don't know if I'm gonna
bet Bandy, so I kind of might. I like the
over because I Bamo will be ready for this like
they're they were embarrassed last year. They've had this circled,
so it's not like they're gonna be hungover from the

(58:45):
Georgia game if Bama goes up early, so I think
they're probably gonna have a real like some wrinkles early
they I could see it being starting like the Georgia game.
I'll probably look to bet Vandy live and Bama doesn't
know a great running game, which might hurt them late,
but they might just want to keep pouring it on here,
so I don't hate the over. I won't bet against

(59:06):
Bobby as a dog, but Bama wants this, so I
could see I make it ten and a half as
my projection, so I'm right on the market. I could
see you can make a case for either side here.
I think the fun way to play it and the
way that I would look. Fifty five is a key
number in college football. Keep that in mind and you're
betting totals. But I could see this being an over again.
The Dandy offenser now is electric, and I don't I

(59:28):
can't see them slowing down Bama too many times, and
Dandy will fight to the death and I'm sure Debor
and company want to. If they can, they might put
in an extra score or too. For what happened last year.

Speaker 2 (59:43):
Who would have thought about five ten years ago that
Vandy Bama would have been much must watch at twelve
thirty or twelve thirty Pacific Scenter time on a random Saturday.

Speaker 1 (59:54):
Andandy's gonna have now Vandy hosts like Dandy's gonna have
a say in the College Walk Playoff. I mean, maybe
they could make it, but I doubt what they're schedule.
But all these SEC teams that want to get there,
Like if Alabama lose this game, they're they're in doubt.
They're in jeopardy of missing the Collegeuall Playoff. They host
LSU next week, they could knock out LSU. They host
Missouri the week after that, they could knock They could

(01:00:17):
help knock down Missouri. They're at Texas, they could eliminate
Texas if they have another loss. Then they're home against
Auburn and then they close the ear at Tennessee. Like,
first of all, that schedule is ridiculous, but they're gonna
have to say and they're probably gonna pull an upset
or two off as they've done throughout Pavia's career. So yeah, well,

(01:00:40):
uh and then and then they hope they host Auburn
and he Pavia owns Hugh Freeze going back to Liberty
New Mexico State when he beat him as a three
touchdown underdog.

Speaker 2 (01:00:50):
What if they go ten and too? Why why why
couldn't they make it?

Speaker 1 (01:00:53):
Uh? They who? And Andy? Yeah, yeah they could, but
they'd have to go like ten and ten and two?
Are they gonna win? Like they're not gonna win all
these games? But uh like LSU looks like they have issues.
Texas might have issues, So like maybe some of those
games get easier than they thought. And if they win
this game, yeah, they're in. They're in the discussion.

Speaker 2 (01:01:13):
Vandy almost beat Texas last year. I remember watching that game.
I was like, God, Vandy's better than I thought. Texas
was laying an egg now looking back, actually Vandy's not terrible.
You know, appreciate you, Stucky, have a good week, and
uh we we will check in with you next week.

Speaker 1 (01:01:28):
Absolutely, I have a good one over. Thanks the volume