December 24, 2024 • 39 mins
John Middlekauff is joined by The Action Network sports betting expert, Stuckey, to share their best bets for the NFL's Christmas Day Special and preview the weekend ahead. The fellas tell you which games they like the most and which games to stay away from. It's all here an more.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. What is going on everybody? How are we doing?
John Middlecoff three and out podcast. Marry Christmas to all
(00:23):
my parents out there. I don't mean my actual parents,
but people that are listening with children, especially young kids.
This is a it's a great time. Get to open
some presents under the tree and put a smile on
their face and celebrate for a couple of days, have
a few cocktails, watch the Little Ball. Today will be
(00:43):
a little preview teaser with my guy Stucky, looking forward
to a couple of games coming up on Wednesday, which
are just mixing and matching the games that we saw
from Saturday and maybe hit on a couple other games.
Get you in and out of here on Christmas. So
hopefully everyone's having a good holiday, enjoying their families and
(01:05):
just kind of chilling, relaxing, hanging out, especially for those
of you that live in frigid, cold temperatures. It's about
seventy five degrees where I'm at, but I'm headed to
a much colder place. Not too cold, but in the
fifties is cold for me. Uh So, yeah, you guys
know the drill. Subscribe to the podcast if you listen
on Collins Feed everything's up on YouTube as well, so
(01:28):
go check that out. And yeah, before we dive into
some football, listen you want to get some tickets the
official ticketing app of this podcast, Game Time, games, concerts,
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(01:49):
Just download that Game Time app on your phone, create
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Game Time app, last minute ticket's lowest prices guaranteed. Okay,
a little Christmas special with my good buddy, my gambling partner,
(02:14):
and someone who probably respects Indiana as little as I
do at this point in time. And I'm sure can't
wait to hammer the under in twenty twenty five, because
I already looked at their schedule at Penn State, at Oregon,
at Iowa and every other big ten. Can't wait to
beat the shit out of them. So thank you Indiana
(02:34):
for ruining our weekend. You two SMU, but obviously the
Rams and the forty nine ers ruined mine Stucky's weekend
because we bet against the Rams and on the forty
nine ers, and Rams covered and the forty nine ers
surely did not. So Stucky, quick turnaround here. Not used
to talking to you on early in the week. But
(02:54):
how you doing, brother, good Ben?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You have Sunday was rough? I had the is a favor,
it was my only winner. Imagine that.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Uh, you're a you're a sickoh on that one. I
appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
The Rams came out flat as we thought, and the
Jets just countless mistakes. Usually you get the home dog
catching three and a half to cover in that spot.
This year, for whatever reason, the NFL, the spots just
haven't been hitting. Uh, but yeah we have We have
football Wednesday Thursday. We have bowls all week NFL Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
(03:33):
So yeah, it's happy holidays to everybody. Enjoy Merry Christmas,
enjoy the football and your couch time. And yeah, Indiana,
I thought like their their run defense held up well.
They give up that ninety eight yard Other than that
name average like two and a half yards per carry,
but nothing else was up to park. The most disappointing
part was just how cowardly they called the game, which
(03:56):
was kind of a theme throughout. It's a winner go
home like what I thought Tennessee too, punting down seventeen like,
but in he Oda punning down three possessions? What were
you doing the fair catching every kick draws on third
and long. It was just a cowardly game time from
a coach who just talks all that shit and then
(04:20):
coached with this tail between his legs for the entire game.
He has a college wall weekend dominated by the favorites
and the home teams. And then as we thought, Oregon,
I mean winning that Big Ten championship. Hopefully they can
win the national title because that's might be the only
(04:41):
banner they have. The teams Georgia, excuse me, Texas and
Penn State lost on COPT champions Week, our double digit favorites,
George's small favorite, and the biggest underdog of the top
seeds is Oregon against so High State two and a
half point underdog. That's their reward, broken bracket, how they
(05:05):
structure it, but that's their reward for going undefeated, the
only undefeated team and winning the Big Ten championship. They're
two and a half point underdog against High of State.
Pretty amazing.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
You know what, before we dive into Wednesday, I would
have told you a month ago that, like the NFL,
I'm glad you're playing on Christmas, but you're kind of
ruining my college football playoff weekend. Thank god we had
those two NFL games. Especially, I'm a sucker and I
know you're a Ravens guy. That game just feels so
awesome on TV every time they play. I don't care.
(05:37):
Dilferd could be their quarterback, Flacco could be their quarterback.
Lamar could be their quarterback. Roethlisberger, Kenny, I don't care.
That game that was the thing is made for television.
That was I thoroughly enjoyed. Honestly. I like the Chiefs
games too, Beside the Tank Dell injury. That sucked, But
that game was a wild ride, a wild ride, and
props of Lamar. I thought one big takeaway I had.
(06:02):
I thought it was one of the better games he's
ever played given the pressure on that moment they took
away his running ability and he was just calm, cool
and collected. He just looked like I thought he was
gonna look last year in the playoffs, so props to
him for kind of getting that, uh that game out
of the way, and now it feels like the Steelers
are in fucking shambles.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Yeah, I will say part of that had to do
with injuries for the Steelers. I mean, their offense isn't
the same about George Pickens, but the defense was ravaged
by injuries. I mean they were already missing two starters
in the secondary and then Joey Porter Junior got hurt.
They're also missing a start on the defensive line. Joey
Porter Junior got hurt, and the Ravens picked on Trice
(06:46):
so their corner situation and then without Porter they can't
really run some of the stuff that they want to run.
So their secondary was just in shambles and the Ravens
took full advantage. That's a huge storyline for this Steelers
Chiefs game. I mean there's injuries on both sides. The
tackle situation for the Chiefs in flux. Chris Jones might
(07:09):
miss the game. That he's massive, I mean, his presence
is and obviously his impact is hard to overstate. And
then the Steelers like, is Picking's gonna play? I don't
think Porter's gonna play? Do they get any of their
other secondary guys back. That's just there's a lot of
(07:30):
injuries watch and it's interesting because the Chiefs are still
going for a one seed, the Steelers still playing for
the division. They had the tiebreak over the Ravens. But
it's a short week and then you know, if you
air on the side of caution because to the playoffs,
both teams came in the playoffs, then you get extended
rest before Week eighteen. So I'm really really curious to
(07:51):
see how these teams handle the injury situation headed into
this game. And Texans have a bunch of injuries too well.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I do think my initial reaction, obviously, it's hard to
tell because this game comes at you so fast. And
they mentioned this on the broadcast on Saturday, just how
good Chris has played this year and what's that meant
for the guys around him. So you're right that that
is massive. I do think though, you know, I know
they would get a longer rest to play Denver, but
(08:23):
that was a pretty scary game the last time they
played the Broncos and then having to go to Denver
that you know, Andy and these guys want to end
it right now, right because I think first the rest. Yeah,
for sure. That's why I think they are a kitchen
sink game, because even if they were to lose it,
they still got a little more time. I have a
(08:44):
hard time seeing the Steelers man that they are, like
you said, their secondary the last two weeks with injuries
and just miscommunications. I mean, they have been getting they
got no shot. And the one thing the Chief showed
a little bit more life Xavier Worthy. I mean now
the more and more reps he's getting with Mahome still
that deep ball is a little off. That tyree thing.
(09:07):
It felt like he never missed when he began the Star.
But you know, Andy's so good at getting them on,
like running a little out routes, getting to pick plays
like he's gonna find a way to use them, even
if they gotta wait till next year to hit the bombs.
I just feel like the Chiefs now are kind of
in like Michael Jordan Tiger Woods, like I'm licking my
I'm gonna end this fucking thing right now. Because first
(09:27):
foot second on Sunday, it was like, are the Bills
really gonna do this? And they're like no, They're playing
Girodmeo and the Patriots, they'll be okay. So I think
you have to assume that the Bills will winning the
next two games, and I would imagine Andy's thinking that
and just to leave it to chance on the last
game of the season. You know, he would love to
just basically give his guys two and a half weeks off,
(09:47):
especially because of all the teams, like in NFL history,
no group of core guys, even you can add DeAndre
Hopkins to that. Right, They're fine. They could take two
and a half weeks and no one's betting against them
week one. I just think that loss for the Steelers
was you know, Russell really had two plays. I didn't
think he was that bad, but those two plays cost
(10:08):
him the game. The fumble in the first half, Like, bro,
you're playing the rule change the game? That was I
mean that minimum right, a ten point swing, probably a
fourteen point swing, and it's like, you got it, Russell.
This is like when you first started and you were
playing the hardball forty nine ers. This is that level game.
I don't know what you know, Guys come out of nowhere.
They will hit you as hard as humanly possible. And
then that interception was just like, oh man, especially right
(10:31):
after you know, I did lamar miscommunication. I'm not quite
sure what happened there, but regardless, it didn't hurt him
at all. So I have a hard time, like I'm
out on the Steelers, and it's not all like the
team that we were in on. I would say a
month ago, not everyone was in on him, but the
team that you know was really looking solid. The defense
(10:53):
isn't nearly the same.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Yeah, I mean, I will say on the surface, this
is your classic Commlin spot, right, everyone says they're cooked.
They lost on the road twice to two really good teams.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Isn't he bad on short weeks though?
Speaker 2 (11:09):
And the Steelers I don't know that have to check
that I don't have.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
I thought I thought that was something that came up.
Maybe it was a different I thought he was a
bad Thursday night guy. Maybe it was Thursday night as
a favorite.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Yeah, Thursday Night. I think he has been great. Monday Night.
I know Monday nights, I know he has. But this
is a game like home Dog. Everyone has been like
they're cooked. But by the way, she's also got Hollywood
brown back. They need to be healthy. The Steelers need
to be healthy on defense because they need to have
guys in the secondary number one to run what they
(11:38):
want to run, and if they do, then that edge
rush could give the Mahomes problems, especially with the tackle
situation and flux a couple injuries there. Chris Jones is
obviously worth monitoring. I think like the Chiefs getting lucky
in games a little overblown, like they're just gonna win
(11:59):
close games. They're offense isn't explosive, like they just know
just kind of know that in the end, if it's close,
they're gonna win. And then there's been they just know
how to run the clock down, like there's been a
number of games where they could have won by more margin.
So it is a classic Tomlin spot. I can't say
what I bet right now. I need that there's so
much injury uncertainty on a short week, but historically like
(12:21):
this is the Steelers missed like twenty tackles last week,
Like you know, the tackling will be more buttoned up,
and the chief secondary does have issues since losing Jalen Watson,
they have not been good in the past two weeks.
You know, they got Jamis throwing a bunch of picks.
The Browns turned it over six times. The Browns also
didn't have the Jokuho. They lost a couple of receivers
during that game. And the Texans, whose offense has been
(12:42):
in the tank, we're moving the ball at will. And
then Tangdell got hurt and all you have to do
now is just double Nico Collins. There's I mean, what
do you're just gonna throw to Dalton Dalton Schultz fifty times?
There's a huge drop off. That loss is massive. He
was cooking the Chiefs all game. It's I think six
(13:02):
catches for ninety eight yards and basically a half on
seven targets. And that you know, this is a Texans
offensive and they lost a couple offensive linemen during the game,
and Dell so like the Chiefs have been getting lucky
with injuries. Their secondaries vulnerable. But the Steelers need pickens, Yeah,
need pickings. So is he gonna play? I don't know.
So a lot of uncertainty there. I do know you'll
(13:24):
get the Steelers' best effort at home. After two straight
losses on the road. Everyone's written like this is the
raw raw Tomlin spot. But if they don't have the
players and the Chiefs do, and they say Hey, we're
going all in. It's a tough ask, but as of
right now, I have to wait and see it's too
early in the week.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
I'm with you on if George Pickens plays, because then
Calvin Austin can play a little bit of that Tank
Dell role. Who that speed I mean was, I mean,
he was going nuts. And that's where going into the
second game, you know, your team's kind of hitting their stride.
That's Zach Orr which was really really ugly early. It
feels like it's calmed down a lot, obviously, and you
hammered this home and they were hammering home on the broadcast,
(14:04):
moving Hamilton back, and basically because early on in the
season he was essentially playing like Camp Chancellor at the
line of scrimmage and he was kicking ass, but they
were getting smoked behind him. And then obviously it came
into play in that game when he made a big
play on center field on you know, a ball that
probably shouldn't have been thrown, but still like he's he's
right there. And I just think that this Texans team,
(14:29):
after that loss to Tank Dell, that felt like one
of the every once in a while, you know, obviously
the the DeMar Hamlin injury several years ago was as
jarring as anything we've ever seen. This felt like this
wasn't life or death but football in terms of an
injury as as rattling as you'll ever see a team.
(14:50):
You had people crying, obviously, they were really rattled after
the game. I just don't know if you overcome that man,
especially you know, he had his leg shattered last year.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
In the end zone.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Same thing this year, which is even worse. And I
just their offensive line's not very good. I think they're
just out of steam. This is just I bought into
them before the season. It clearly has been a bumpy ride.
But man, it feels like they're at a juice and
the Ravens kind of find their swagon. They got me,
they bought me in last year right around Christmas when
(15:22):
they beat the shit out of the forty nine ers.
I feel like I'm getting jumping back on the bandwagon.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Yeah. The Ravens defense is playing better too. They made
some changes, you know, where they played Hamilton, putting Washington
in at safety. Really just playing Humphrey in the slot
has been amazing and it's really helped defensive line. Also
getting healthier I don't think the defense was great last week,
but just the trend line of the defense. It was
(15:50):
so bad the pass defense earlier in the season, especially
over the middle of the field. They've addressed some of
those issues and they're much healthier. Although you got a
watch Zay Flowers to bum on the injury report. It's
tough on a short week. You get a monitor monitor
the injury report. The Texans. Yeah, it's they have offensive
lot more offensive line injuries. That was the game where
(16:14):
it was, Okay, let's see if we can get the
offense going, get confidence in Kansas City against someone will
have to beat, most likely on the road or definitely
on the road. Yeah, and they did have it going
and this is the first time we've seen life from
the offense in months. And then Dell goes down and
you already lost Digs, a couple more guys in the
(16:37):
offensive line go down. I don't like their offense without Dell.
You saw it. It just doesn't have the same juice.
You're supposed to have Dell, Digs and Collins out there,
and they just haven't been able to have all three healthy.
And now you're not going to have Dell and Digs
for the rest of the year. That makes them so
much easier to cover. It's just, hey, put your best
(17:03):
corner on Collins, put a safety over top, and then
Stroud's gonna be under pressure. You can't really run on
the Ravens like that's been there and that's been like
kind of their bailout card in some games, as Joe
Mixon going off. Can't really run on the Ravens. I
don't mind me under in this game. I think the
Ravens defense trending up and the Texans offense is very limited. Now.
(17:27):
The Texans defense also has some key injuries, but the
Texas defense has been a lead all season. Anderson didn't
practice with a hand injury. I would imagine he goes.
But they already lost Petrie, who was playing like an
all pro level in the slot. Stud love him against
the run pass. He does so much. He got hurt.
Then they had to move Jimmy Ward, your X nine er.
(17:48):
He was playing well and filling that role nicely, but
as a result they had you have two rookies in
the second he had a rookie safety in a rookie corner.
They were making due, but now Ward got hurt. Yeah,
so and then the Ravens know how to pick on
a weakness of a defense. So these injuries for the
Texans are a lot. So yeah, I don't disagree with you,
and I don't mind the Ravens unders are scary, but
(18:12):
especially indoors. But I think their defense is trending up.
And this Texans offense has been lost and now you
don't have Dell, and I think their defense will show
up here. But it's from an injury standpoint if you
look at it for these two teams, the Ravens are
probably going to be more aggressive than the Texans because
the Ravens are still playing for the division, which is important.
(18:34):
And you know, the Steelers still have the Chiefs and
the Bengals left, and the Ravens, I believe, have this
game and then the Browns at home, which should be
a win. So they're playing for the division. The Texans
they're playing for nothing, like they've won their division. They're
not jumping up to the one two seed. It's a
(18:55):
let's get healthy and maybe try to figure out some
things on offense. But a motivation and standpoint, and that's
what I mean by that is both teams will care,
but how you treat like the injuries for this week,
the Ravens might be a little aggressive. So don't mind
the under and don't mind your your Ravens take it all.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Ravens control their own destiny.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
They went out no, because the Steelers have like a
the Steelers have the tiebreaker as of now, and so
they need the Steelers to lose a game, and which
is much more like they need to win out and
(19:36):
have the Steelers lose a game, which is much more
likely to happen. I mean the Steelers, like I said,
Chiefs and Bengals, both of them are at home. But
the Ravens win this game, they get the Browns, who
are disaster at home. So the Steelers do have the
tiebreaker as of now. So that's that the AC North
(19:57):
is TBD for the rest of the world.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
So you could see Steelers lose in the morning. I
could see the Ravens even up in their effort coming
out swing and that might be a little you know,
hammer that bet before kickoff if the Steelers just lost
to the Chiefs, because it feels like they could basically
end it because they are going to be massive favorites
against the Browns, who I mean by that time. Who
(20:19):
are there the Browns rolling out Miles Garrett and Ship
for that game. No chance probably, you know, any guy
Like they're not going to risk someone snapping their leg
or having a serious injury. Especially more and more of
these rumors about Miles Garrett potentially maybe this offseason, you know,
kind of pivot. Could he be on the trade block?
That that'll be. It's a big little domino effect right there.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yeah, Steelers not would come down to common opponents, the
common opponents Typereckers Steels would be nine and three, Ravens
will be eight and four because they'd have the same
I think conference division and record if they finished tied,
So the Ravens have to finish a game ahead.
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Speaker 1 (22:41):
Okay, the Thursday night game. I don't understand how the
Bears keep getting shoved down a throat, but has any
tea I don't remember a team that has good players
and then does stuff in the second half like shitty
teams like the Giants, Like they just get their down
big and they just stay down big. This team is
pretty fraudulent in the sense of they'll be down twenty
(23:02):
four to nothing or twenty to nothing or seventeen to nothing,
and then it'll just kind of ebb and flow touchdown
back and forth from there. But it's never the other
team knows they cannot lose the game, and it's like, oh,
look at all these Caleb touchdowns. He hasn't thrown a pick.
It's like he's not even playing in real football games
because of the way they're down. So I don't even
know what to make of him. Obviously, he has a
(23:22):
good arm and he's an intriguing prospect, But to think
he's a good player based on some of these touchdowns
down multiple scores in the second half against playoff teams,
give me a break. Now. On the flip side, Seattle,
that was a pretty devastating l for them on Sunday,
especially after Gino leads him right down. I'm like, this
is like the defining drive of Gino's career. The throw
(23:45):
he made in the back of the end zone looked
like fucking farth. I mean that was like a one
hundred mileter hour fastball. Incredible catch. And then Darnold turns
into Josh Allen meets Mahomes and that's just a big
kick in the you know what for Seattle. Now they're
not technically yet, but to me, I don't even I
could never bet on the Bears, but I could also
see Seattle. It feels like maybe they just had a
(24:08):
juice after that. I mean, that was a kitchen sink
game for him, running fake punts, and I don't know,
wouldn't shock me if they lay an egg here but
their egg it might not matter because you're playing the Bears.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Yeah, this is a tough game. I mean, you're generally
speaking in the past. In the final two weeks of
the reg season, these teams were playing for nothing and
are out of it. Playing teams that need to win
are a good bet because you're you're usually paying a
premium on the teams that need to win. Everyone knows
they need to win and.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Like Lions Niners, like what are the Niners playing for now?
Like that that that felt like it's over now nowetting
the Lions the Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
No, historically those have been good bets. They're still professional.
People still show up. Yeah, I mean the Seahawks have
played the Vikings. If you look yards for play success
for eight yards pert tempt yards per rush they just
made They lost a turnover battle a lot of times
what football games come down to. And they killed themselves
with penalties. The biggest one and they had like ten penalties.
(25:07):
Think the biggest one was they were up four on
the Vikings and they get a sack, which pretty much
would have ended the game. It would have been like
third and twenty, but they drabbed Donald's face mass next
play forty yard touchdown. Devastating loss. But they were really
good in that game. Should have won. But they killed
(25:29):
themselves with their mistakes. They're like, yeah, did they get
up off the mat here? Their defense is trending in
the right direction. They made some personal changes in the secondary,
they got healthier, They made healthier on the defensive line,
they got healthier in the secondary, made some personnel changes
at linebacker McDonald has that team playing well. The one
exception was the Packers game, but the trend line for
that defense they played well last week. They get the
(25:50):
turnover led to a short field on the Vikings, and
the Vikings have a good offense, and then you know,
you get that penalty and give up forty yard touchdown
to Justin Jefson. You had two guys there. They just
whift on it.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
It was it was an incredible throw too. I mean
that that.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Race brow crushed. It was an amazing throw. It's hard.
It's hard to bet the Bears. I bet some Bears
last week if plus seven it did not end well.
It's amazing that they're They're down every week. It's twenty
to nothing. It's like clockwork come out. I do think
they miss Eberflus.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
On the they're worse. I mean they're they're solid with
the Jets, same thing, right, you move that guy, they
get dramatically worse.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
Yeah, and they missed Eberflus defensively, and then Graham is
in over his head trying to be the head coach
offensive coordinator. It's a mess. They can't stop the run.
So yeah, this is a tough game, like situationally, price wise,
it is probably gonna get too expensive. You supposed to
play the Bears, but can you put your hard earned
(26:55):
money on the Bears right now? I'm not sure. It's
a tough game.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I think that was a game, even in a loss.
If I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm not saying McDonald's going
to be as good of a coach and have a
resume like Pete Obviously got to win Super Bowl, go
to another one, win a national championship like Pete's a legend,
but clearly the last couple of years his teams did
not look like that. So if I'm a Seattle fan,
(27:19):
you know what Ryan Grubb, who clearly you never know
what the college guy how it's going to transition. I
mean they when they're healthy, they look pretty freaking explosive.
And I think back to the Packer game, the gap
that was pretty I actually earned. I think Gino earned
everyone's respect. Like, hey, guys, we can nitpick me all
we want, but relative to who else we got in
(27:40):
this roster, I look like Joe Montana meets pret Farf.
I mean Sam Howe. Also, it brings in the light
like their ow line sucks, so Gino's kind of mobility
and toughness standing behind there. And Gino has an underrated arm.
You know we talk about big arms. No one ever
mentions him. Sometimes you watch like Jesus, like listen as
a party guy forty nine er guy here. I mean
(28:03):
Gino's throw one hundred pretty thrown like eighty eight, right,
I mean Geno's got a hose. So I I was
impressed with Seattle, and clearly they're not they win this game.
They're not dead by any means. Right, playing the Rams
week eighteen? How does that? Do you know how that
tiebreaker works? If they if they both win this weekend
and then they play week eighteen, is that winner get
in Rams?
Speaker 2 (28:24):
So Rams Seahawks would.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
Be Rams have nine wins. Uh so they they well, no.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Matter what if the Rams beat the Seahawks, because they
would sweep in.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
Yeah, and they'd have another win than them. So the
Rams control their own destiny.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Yes, if the Seahawks and Rams both win this week
and then Seattle wins in week eighteen, they'd be finished.
They'd be tied and head to head division and conference
record would come down to strength of victory. And it
looks like the Rams have a clear edge right now.
(29:05):
So the Seahawks need a lot of help, like they
need yeah, they it looks like the Rams. So it
looks like the what the Rams need. I mean, when
the Seahawks need then they need the They need the
Cardinals to win. They Needa Rams, Yeah, and they need
to win. Went out. He has a devastating loss. And
(29:26):
then the Jets not being able to capitalize on any
any trips in the Rams territory really hurt them. So
Rams definitely in the driver's seat as of now.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
I mean, at one point in time on Sunday, it
felt like it was going, like, God, the Jets probably
gonna win this game in Seattle's looking good. It was
about to go the other way.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
That's nine to nine. They were driving. They were like
the twelve yard line and they decided to go for
it on fourth down. Didn't get it, and that kind
of flipped the game. And there was a drive earlier
and then they got down to the three, couldn't score.
They it's a field goal. They turned they went forward
on their own thirty and didn't get it. I mean,
(30:05):
there was a comedy of errors by the Jets, which
really helped the Rams out because they were flat. I
mean they often said nothing in that game. So yeah,
Rams are in the driver's seat. Cardinals eliminated losing to
the Panthers. So that division, which looked like it was
gonna come down to the last game, might not. Based
on how these results go, the Rams might be hitting
(30:28):
pretty okay.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
Before I get you out of here, just looking at
some of these schedules that I know you love a good, random,
shitty bowl game that doesn't matter to most people, but
you always find value. Looks like we've got a pretty
good slate. Friday, Oklahoma Navy, Georgia Tech, Vandy Tech, Arkansas,
Syracuse Wazoo, the Trojans at A and M. Does that
(30:50):
have blowout written all over it for your aggies.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
I don't know. I mean Texas A and M us
he gets to play in Vegas. They played the other
quarterback you used to play. They played the earlier this season.
A and M's three best defensive linemen are opting out.
USC has a bunch of receivers opt out, but they
still have talent there. I think there's a chance they
could potentially keep it close. I got to see who
ends up playing. For sure, Syracuse should blow out Washington State.
(31:17):
That line was that I think opened at three. It's
up to sixteen and a half. Everyone on Syracuse is
playing they care. Brian Brown's all in. They said, we
don't opt out. Washington State is down his head coach,
offense coordinator, defensive coordinator, quarterback coach, running back coach. Eleven
starters have opted out. There might be more for playing
a backup quarterback. That game might close twenty. I'm surprised
(31:38):
Washington State didn't forfeit the bowl.
Speaker 1 (31:40):
Where the defensive the defensive coordinator go with Dicker.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Their defensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
Because those seeing quarterback went to Oklahoma, right, which feels
a little basketball packaged dally to you? Or am I
just being.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
Conspiracy theory there? Yes, he was fired. Their defensive coordinator
was fired. So yeah, it's an absolute mess.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Is that quarterback? Is that quarterback good?
Speaker 2 (32:07):
I think he's okay. I don't think he's gonna like
he wasn't playing great competition, and I don't think that's
like the ceiling that Oklahoma thinks.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I mean, I understand, I don't know. I mean, Jackson Arnold,
he gets benched, he comes back, not totally his fault,
and you were saying this early on, they're missing a
million wide receivers. I mean, you could have put Baker
or Kyler. There would have been a struggle with who
was out there. Then he goes to Auburn, which I
read for like two to three million dollars, which seems
a little crazy to me. But then they go with
(32:36):
this quarterback and this offensive coordinator who I text a
couple of scouting buddies. They are like, yeah, he's really tough,
but I wouldn't exactly say he's you know, what they've
been used to in their heyday. So it just Oklahoma
feels a little lost right now. And maybe it's hard
with the with the nil situation, and maybe they just
felt comfortable getting this package deal. But I mean, you're
(32:56):
seeing these opt outs. It's hard to keep track of.
I mean, every day you look up, there's another guy,
another guy, another guy. A lot of it's declaring for
the draft or transfer portal. But it changes these teams dramatically.
Like you said, Washington State, who I think you tweeted out.
No team finished worse, and it might have simply been
like did everyone kind of see the writing on the wall,
(33:17):
like I'm out, I'm out? The coaches out. Maybe they
all kind of internally quit and they were just looking
forward because they they they were pretty good, like they were,
they've been good the last couple of years. So I
wonder if mentally everyone checked out and they just kind
of went through the motions. Which is it fair to
say that probably is what happened, because I remember your tweet,
like you look at like, how the fuck did they
(33:38):
lose his enormous favorites three times in a row? Well,
now looking back, it kind of makes sense, right, which
I wish we would have known. We would have hammered
the big undroducts. You could have got some of them,
probably like three or four to one.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Yep, Yeah, they were all double digit dogs. They lost ball,
so like writing was on the wall and then all
everyone has left that could get augillion Syracuse. Some of
the kids that are on the Bowl game last year,
they didn't have a coach. They lost five to nothing.
These teams a without a coach that when they have
all the players opt out, they usually get blown out.
Oklahoma Navy, that line's gone from seven to three. Bunch
(34:09):
of Oklahoma opt outs. I always take the Service Academy
in the Bowl. I just especially when they're a dog
seventy percent against the spread. Excuse me since nineteen seventy
if you just want to go back past ten years,
fifteen and three straight up, fifteen and three against the spread,
seven and two straight up against Power four teams. Why
they always show up? Motivations never questioned. A motivation is
(34:30):
huge for these meaningless bowl games. And Oklahoma. Do they
really want to spend their holiday break preparing for the
triple option? Probably not. Is their staff really focused on
this game? Probably not. They're probably focused on the portal
recruiting next year, so the preparation advantage and Navy they
don't have to do well any of that stuff. Texas
(34:51):
Tech Arkansas is an interesting one. Arkansas a ton of
opt outs. All their receive in the quarterback transfer now
quarterback to Taylor Green. He's staying, but all the receivers
opted out there, tight end, multiple offensive linemen, they're running back.
Their best defensive players are opting out. Texas Tax quarterbacks
out though due to surgery. They're going with the backup quarterback.
I still like Texas Tech one. They're like a one
(35:12):
and a half point dog. I think that they're but
tex Tech also doesn't have any coordinators. They replaced their coordinators.
Really interesting game, but Arkansas's offense is a mess right now.
And Texas Tech their backup. He played some this year.
I think he's actually a better fit for the offense.
He has some mobility. I think TODs Brooks is an
NFL running back, is going to play. He's listed on
the depth chart. If he does. Texas tax roster is
(35:33):
in much better shape. So I like the Red Raiders
at Georgia Tech. Van He's two teams I wanted to
bet in Bowl season with their quarterbacks Haines King, Diego Pavia.
Pavi will be healthier catching three. I think he just
take the points there. But that's a tricky one. Yeah,
Friday some interesting Bowl games, although that Syracuse one could
(35:55):
get ugly.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Yeah, I like that. Okay, last one though, the Fighting
Belichicks at Fenway Park. Now Freddy Kitchen's legendary Freddy Kitchens
form Browns coach coaching the game, but not really coaching
for a job, because Belichick's already said he's on the staff.
So is this a kitchen sink game for Freddy Kitchens?
Does he even have a kitchen sink game in him?
(36:16):
It's outdoor southern team playing Yukon. Who I'll be honest,
I haven't watch a snap of Yukon football since Jim
Moore has been there, but I would imagine Jim Moore
is gonna take this shit seriously. North Carolina favored by three.
You would imagine Belichick will be kind of usually that
interim guy that's or not the interim guy, but the
new coach who lets another guy coach is usually there.
(36:37):
So I bet a lot of these guys on the
team you would think would want to stay and play
for him. So does North Carolina, who was atrocious this
year on defense. Right, So how does this play out?
Is this the stay away?
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Probably if I was gonna play it, I would play
Yukon just no coach. I don't know invob Belchi's when
he's probably more about the roster construction Kon.
Speaker 1 (37:02):
He might he might not go. He might not go
because they're just doing portal and recruit. He might not.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
They have so much other stuff to do. North Krona
does have some key opt outs that The biggest one
is Hampton is one of the best facts in the country.
It's gonna play in the NFL. He opted out, one
of the best receivers, a couple offensive linemen, so North
Carolina and their best defensive end opted out as well
for the NFL Draft, so they're not at full strength.
(37:26):
Yukon's probably all in here means a lot to their program. Again,
the coachless team, it's Yukon. I mean, look, you're paying
for you're paying the premium here because the line has
come down. But it would be Yukon or nothing. But
we weird game.
Speaker 1 (37:42):
Okay, Stuckey, I'll get you out of here. Have a
good Christmas, have a good Honika, whatever you may celebrate,
enjoy just football.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
That's ye.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Same and the NFL on Wednesday. So I will talk
to you next week as we get four. Looking forward
to some more college football playoff games as well as
the final week of the NFL, which might not be great,
but so we can focus on college for sure. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (38:08):
I hopefully we get some more competitive college wall playoff games,
which we should get. Georgia Notre Dame at least and
Ohio State Oregon, and that's I got to dive into
the other two matchups and see if Boise State can
make it a game, if Arizona State can make it
a game. They will have two really good backs to
(38:30):
lean on in Ashton Genty and Cam Scatbo. So yeah,
Cam excited to talk about that. But Merry Christmas, Happy
holidays to everyone, early, happy New Year, and now I'll
see you next week.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
We just need one of those two guys to go
like Steph Curry Davidson against Kansas, you know, just just
to rush for like two fifty and have a legendary,
a historic moment in the college world.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
That's the good thing with the teams that benefited the
most from the bye, which wasn't Oregon beause they got
to play Ohio State Georgia because they have to go
to the backup. So one, you don't have to put
him on tape for a game, and you can try
to come up with some things and you know, assimilate
him into the offense. And Notre Dame doesn't really know
what to expect, so they benefited from having that buy.
(39:14):
And then Arizona State and Bois State. Obviously they probably
would have lost in the first round. I shouldn't say probably,
but they would have been underdogs, so them not having
to play an extra game. But you get gent and Scott,
but who got fed the ball all year. You got
some time to rest up, like they're gonna come out
with everything. They got rejuvenated, fresh legs, and I'm sure
(39:37):
both teams are gonna lean on them, so I wouldn't
be surprised the point or both as a really big day.
Speaker 1 (39:42):
Okay, Stuck, you have a great week.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
Talk to you soon YouTube.
Speaker 1 (39:45):
Cheers the volume
The volume. What is going on everybody? How are we doing?
John Middlecoff three and out podcast. Marry Christmas to all
(00:23):
my parents out there. I don't mean my actual parents,
but people that are listening with children, especially young kids.
This is a it's a great time. Get to open
some presents under the tree and put a smile on
their face and celebrate for a couple of days, have
a few cocktails, watch the Little Ball. Today will be
(00:43):
a little preview teaser with my guy Stucky, looking forward
to a couple of games coming up on Wednesday, which
are just mixing and matching the games that we saw
from Saturday and maybe hit on a couple other games.
Get you in and out of here on Christmas. So
hopefully everyone's having a good holiday, enjoying their families and
(01:05):
just kind of chilling, relaxing, hanging out, especially for those
of you that live in frigid, cold temperatures. It's about
seventy five degrees where I'm at, but I'm headed to
a much colder place. Not too cold, but in the
fifties is cold for me. Uh So, yeah, you guys
know the drill. Subscribe to the podcast if you listen
on Collins Feed everything's up on YouTube as well, so
(01:28):
go check that out. And yeah, before we dive into
some football, listen you want to get some tickets the
official ticketing app of this podcast, Game Time, games, concerts,
comedy shows, any event you want to go to, I
got you covered. So take the guest work out of
buying tickets the holiday season with my friends at game Time.
(01:49):
Just download that Game Time app on your phone, create
an account, and use the code John for twenty dollars
off your first purchase. Terms apply again, create an account,
redeem code John for twenty dollars off. Down with the
Game Time app, last minute ticket's lowest prices guaranteed. Okay,
a little Christmas special with my good buddy, my gambling partner,
(02:14):
and someone who probably respects Indiana as little as I
do at this point in time. And I'm sure can't
wait to hammer the under in twenty twenty five, because
I already looked at their schedule at Penn State, at Oregon,
at Iowa and every other big ten. Can't wait to
beat the shit out of them. So thank you Indiana
(02:34):
for ruining our weekend. You two SMU, but obviously the
Rams and the forty nine ers ruined mine Stucky's weekend
because we bet against the Rams and on the forty
nine ers, and Rams covered and the forty nine ers
surely did not. So Stucky, quick turnaround here. Not used
to talking to you on early in the week. But
(02:54):
how you doing, brother, good Ben?
Speaker 2 (02:56):
You have Sunday was rough? I had the is a favor,
it was my only winner. Imagine that.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
Uh, you're a you're a sickoh on that one. I
appreciate it.
Speaker 2 (03:08):
The Rams came out flat as we thought, and the
Jets just countless mistakes. Usually you get the home dog
catching three and a half to cover in that spot.
This year, for whatever reason, the NFL, the spots just
haven't been hitting. Uh, but yeah we have We have
football Wednesday Thursday. We have bowls all week NFL Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday.
(03:33):
So yeah, it's happy holidays to everybody. Enjoy Merry Christmas,
enjoy the football and your couch time. And yeah, Indiana,
I thought like their their run defense held up well.
They give up that ninety eight yard Other than that
name average like two and a half yards per carry,
but nothing else was up to park. The most disappointing
part was just how cowardly they called the game, which
(03:56):
was kind of a theme throughout. It's a winner go
home like what I thought Tennessee too, punting down seventeen like,
but in he Oda punning down three possessions? What were
you doing the fair catching every kick draws on third
and long. It was just a cowardly game time from
a coach who just talks all that shit and then
(04:20):
coached with this tail between his legs for the entire game.
He has a college wall weekend dominated by the favorites
and the home teams. And then as we thought, Oregon,
I mean winning that Big Ten championship. Hopefully they can
win the national title because that's might be the only
(04:41):
banner they have. The teams Georgia, excuse me, Texas and
Penn State lost on COPT champions Week, our double digit favorites,
George's small favorite, and the biggest underdog of the top
seeds is Oregon against so High State two and a
half point underdog. That's their reward, broken bracket, how they
(05:05):
structure it, but that's their reward for going undefeated, the
only undefeated team and winning the Big Ten championship. They're
two and a half point underdog against High of State.
Pretty amazing.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
You know what, before we dive into Wednesday, I would
have told you a month ago that, like the NFL,
I'm glad you're playing on Christmas, but you're kind of
ruining my college football playoff weekend. Thank god we had
those two NFL games. Especially, I'm a sucker and I
know you're a Ravens guy. That game just feels so
awesome on TV every time they play. I don't care.
(05:37):
Dilferd could be their quarterback, Flacco could be their quarterback.
Lamar could be their quarterback. Roethlisberger, Kenny, I don't care.
That game that was the thing is made for television.
That was I thoroughly enjoyed. Honestly. I like the Chiefs
games too, Beside the Tank Dell injury. That sucked, But
that game was a wild ride, a wild ride, and
props of Lamar. I thought one big takeaway I had.
(06:02):
I thought it was one of the better games he's
ever played given the pressure on that moment they took
away his running ability and he was just calm, cool
and collected. He just looked like I thought he was
gonna look last year in the playoffs, so props to
him for kind of getting that, uh that game out
of the way, and now it feels like the Steelers
are in fucking shambles.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Yeah, I will say part of that had to do
with injuries for the Steelers. I mean, their offense isn't
the same about George Pickens, but the defense was ravaged
by injuries. I mean they were already missing two starters
in the secondary and then Joey Porter Junior got hurt.
They're also missing a start on the defensive line. Joey
Porter Junior got hurt, and the Ravens picked on Trice
(06:46):
so their corner situation and then without Porter they can't
really run some of the stuff that they want to run.
So their secondary was just in shambles and the Ravens
took full advantage. That's a huge storyline for this Steelers
Chiefs game. I mean there's injuries on both sides. The
tackle situation for the Chiefs in flux. Chris Jones might
(07:09):
miss the game. That he's massive, I mean, his presence
is and obviously his impact is hard to overstate. And
then the Steelers like, is Picking's gonna play? I don't
think Porter's gonna play? Do they get any of their
other secondary guys back. That's just there's a lot of
(07:30):
injuries watch and it's interesting because the Chiefs are still
going for a one seed, the Steelers still playing for
the division. They had the tiebreak over the Ravens. But
it's a short week and then you know, if you
air on the side of caution because to the playoffs,
both teams came in the playoffs, then you get extended
rest before Week eighteen. So I'm really really curious to
(07:51):
see how these teams handle the injury situation headed into
this game. And Texans have a bunch of injuries too well.
Speaker 1 (08:01):
I do think my initial reaction, obviously, it's hard to
tell because this game comes at you so fast. And
they mentioned this on the broadcast on Saturday, just how
good Chris has played this year and what's that meant
for the guys around him. So you're right that that
is massive. I do think though, you know, I know
they would get a longer rest to play Denver, but
(08:23):
that was a pretty scary game the last time they
played the Broncos and then having to go to Denver
that you know, Andy and these guys want to end
it right now, right because I think first the rest. Yeah,
for sure. That's why I think they are a kitchen
sink game, because even if they were to lose it,
they still got a little more time. I have a
(08:44):
hard time seeing the Steelers man that they are, like
you said, their secondary the last two weeks with injuries
and just miscommunications. I mean, they have been getting they
got no shot. And the one thing the Chief showed
a little bit more life Xavier Worthy. I mean now
the more and more reps he's getting with Mahome still
that deep ball is a little off. That tyree thing.
(09:07):
It felt like he never missed when he began the Star.
But you know, Andy's so good at getting them on,
like running a little out routes, getting to pick plays
like he's gonna find a way to use them, even
if they gotta wait till next year to hit the bombs.
I just feel like the Chiefs now are kind of
in like Michael Jordan Tiger Woods, like I'm licking my
I'm gonna end this fucking thing right now. Because first
(09:27):
foot second on Sunday, it was like, are the Bills
really gonna do this? And they're like no, They're playing
Girodmeo and the Patriots, they'll be okay. So I think
you have to assume that the Bills will winning the
next two games, and I would imagine Andy's thinking that
and just to leave it to chance on the last
game of the season. You know, he would love to
just basically give his guys two and a half weeks off,
(09:47):
especially because of all the teams, like in NFL history,
no group of core guys, even you can add DeAndre
Hopkins to that. Right, They're fine. They could take two
and a half weeks and no one's betting against them
week one. I just think that loss for the Steelers
was you know, Russell really had two plays. I didn't
think he was that bad, but those two plays cost
(10:08):
him the game. The fumble in the first half, Like, bro,
you're playing the rule change the game? That was I
mean that minimum right, a ten point swing, probably a
fourteen point swing, and it's like, you got it, Russell.
This is like when you first started and you were
playing the hardball forty nine ers. This is that level game.
I don't know what you know, Guys come out of nowhere.
They will hit you as hard as humanly possible. And
then that interception was just like, oh man, especially right
(10:31):
after you know, I did lamar miscommunication. I'm not quite
sure what happened there, but regardless, it didn't hurt him
at all. So I have a hard time, like I'm
out on the Steelers, and it's not all like the
team that we were in on. I would say a
month ago, not everyone was in on him, but the
team that you know was really looking solid. The defense
(10:53):
isn't nearly the same.
Speaker 2 (10:55):
Yeah, I mean, I will say on the surface, this
is your classic Commlin spot, right, everyone says they're cooked.
They lost on the road twice to two really good teams.
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Isn't he bad on short weeks though?
Speaker 2 (11:09):
And the Steelers I don't know that have to check
that I don't have.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
I thought I thought that was something that came up.
Maybe it was a different I thought he was a
bad Thursday night guy. Maybe it was Thursday night as
a favorite.
Speaker 2 (11:18):
Yeah, Thursday Night. I think he has been great. Monday Night.
I know Monday nights, I know he has. But this
is a game like home Dog. Everyone has been like
they're cooked. But by the way, she's also got Hollywood
brown back. They need to be healthy. The Steelers need
to be healthy on defense because they need to have
guys in the secondary number one to run what they
(11:38):
want to run, and if they do, then that edge
rush could give the Mahomes problems, especially with the tackle
situation and flux a couple injuries there. Chris Jones is
obviously worth monitoring. I think like the Chiefs getting lucky
in games a little overblown, like they're just gonna win
(11:59):
close games. They're offense isn't explosive, like they just know
just kind of know that in the end, if it's close,
they're gonna win. And then there's been they just know
how to run the clock down, like there's been a
number of games where they could have won by more margin.
So it is a classic Tomlin spot. I can't say
what I bet right now. I need that there's so
much injury uncertainty on a short week, but historically like
(12:21):
this is the Steelers missed like twenty tackles last week,
Like you know, the tackling will be more buttoned up,
and the chief secondary does have issues since losing Jalen Watson,
they have not been good in the past two weeks.
You know, they got Jamis throwing a bunch of picks.
The Browns turned it over six times. The Browns also
didn't have the Jokuho. They lost a couple of receivers
during that game. And the Texans, whose offense has been
(12:42):
in the tank, we're moving the ball at will. And
then Tangdell got hurt and all you have to do
now is just double Nico Collins. There's I mean, what
do you're just gonna throw to Dalton Dalton Schultz fifty times?
There's a huge drop off. That loss is massive. He
was cooking the Chiefs all game. It's I think six
(13:02):
catches for ninety eight yards and basically a half on
seven targets. And that you know, this is a Texans
offensive and they lost a couple offensive linemen during the game,
and Dell so like the Chiefs have been getting lucky
with injuries. Their secondaries vulnerable. But the Steelers need pickens, Yeah,
need pickings. So is he gonna play? I don't know.
So a lot of uncertainty there. I do know you'll
(13:24):
get the Steelers' best effort at home. After two straight
losses on the road. Everyone's written like this is the
raw raw Tomlin spot. But if they don't have the
players and the Chiefs do, and they say Hey, we're
going all in. It's a tough ask, but as of
right now, I have to wait and see it's too
early in the week.
Speaker 1 (13:42):
I'm with you on if George Pickens plays, because then
Calvin Austin can play a little bit of that Tank
Dell role. Who that speed I mean was, I mean,
he was going nuts. And that's where going into the
second game, you know, your team's kind of hitting their stride.
That's Zach Orr which was really really ugly early. It
feels like it's calmed down a lot, obviously, and you
hammered this home and they were hammering home on the broadcast,
(14:04):
moving Hamilton back, and basically because early on in the
season he was essentially playing like Camp Chancellor at the
line of scrimmage and he was kicking ass, but they
were getting smoked behind him. And then obviously it came
into play in that game when he made a big
play on center field on you know, a ball that
probably shouldn't have been thrown, but still like he's he's
right there. And I just think that this Texans team,
(14:29):
after that loss to Tank Dell, that felt like one
of the every once in a while, you know, obviously
the the DeMar Hamlin injury several years ago was as
jarring as anything we've ever seen. This felt like this
wasn't life or death but football in terms of an
injury as as rattling as you'll ever see a team.
(14:50):
You had people crying, obviously, they were really rattled after
the game. I just don't know if you overcome that man,
especially you know, he had his leg shattered last year.
Speaker 2 (14:59):
In the end zone.
Speaker 1 (15:00):
Same thing this year, which is even worse. And I
just their offensive line's not very good. I think they're
just out of steam. This is just I bought into
them before the season. It clearly has been a bumpy ride.
But man, it feels like they're at a juice and
the Ravens kind of find their swagon. They got me,
they bought me in last year right around Christmas when
(15:22):
they beat the shit out of the forty nine ers.
I feel like I'm getting jumping back on the bandwagon.
Speaker 2 (15:28):
Yeah. The Ravens defense is playing better too. They made
some changes, you know, where they played Hamilton, putting Washington
in at safety. Really just playing Humphrey in the slot
has been amazing and it's really helped defensive line. Also
getting healthier I don't think the defense was great last week,
but just the trend line of the defense. It was
(15:50):
so bad the pass defense earlier in the season, especially
over the middle of the field. They've addressed some of
those issues and they're much healthier. Although you got a
watch Zay Flowers to bum on the injury report. It's
tough on a short week. You get a monitor monitor
the injury report. The Texans. Yeah, it's they have offensive
lot more offensive line injuries. That was the game where
(16:14):
it was, Okay, let's see if we can get the
offense going, get confidence in Kansas City against someone will
have to beat, most likely on the road or definitely
on the road. Yeah, and they did have it going
and this is the first time we've seen life from
the offense in months. And then Dell goes down and
you already lost Digs, a couple more guys in the
(16:37):
offensive line go down. I don't like their offense without Dell.
You saw it. It just doesn't have the same juice.
You're supposed to have Dell, Digs and Collins out there,
and they just haven't been able to have all three healthy.
And now you're not going to have Dell and Digs
for the rest of the year. That makes them so
much easier to cover. It's just, hey, put your best
(17:03):
corner on Collins, put a safety over top, and then
Stroud's gonna be under pressure. You can't really run on
the Ravens like that's been there and that's been like
kind of their bailout card in some games, as Joe
Mixon going off. Can't really run on the Ravens. I
don't mind me under in this game. I think the
Ravens defense trending up and the Texans offense is very limited. Now.
(17:27):
The Texans defense also has some key injuries, but the
Texas defense has been a lead all season. Anderson didn't
practice with a hand injury. I would imagine he goes.
But they already lost Petrie, who was playing like an
all pro level in the slot. Stud love him against
the run pass. He does so much. He got hurt.
Then they had to move Jimmy Ward, your X nine er.
(17:48):
He was playing well and filling that role nicely, but
as a result they had you have two rookies in
the second he had a rookie safety in a rookie corner.
They were making due, but now Ward got hurt. Yeah,
so and then the Ravens know how to pick on
a weakness of a defense. So these injuries for the
Texans are a lot. So yeah, I don't disagree with you,
and I don't mind the Ravens unders are scary, but
(18:12):
especially indoors. But I think their defense is trending up.
And this Texans offense has been lost and now you
don't have Dell, and I think their defense will show
up here. But it's from an injury standpoint if you
look at it for these two teams, the Ravens are
probably going to be more aggressive than the Texans because
the Ravens are still playing for the division, which is important.
(18:34):
And you know, the Steelers still have the Chiefs and
the Bengals left, and the Ravens, I believe, have this
game and then the Browns at home, which should be
a win. So they're playing for the division. The Texans
they're playing for nothing, like they've won their division. They're
not jumping up to the one two seed. It's a
(18:55):
let's get healthy and maybe try to figure out some
things on offense. But a motivation and standpoint, and that's
what I mean by that is both teams will care,
but how you treat like the injuries for this week,
the Ravens might be a little aggressive. So don't mind
the under and don't mind your your Ravens take it all.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
Ravens control their own destiny.
Speaker 2 (19:15):
They went out no, because the Steelers have like a
the Steelers have the tiebreaker as of now, and so
they need the Steelers to lose a game, and which
is much more like they need to win out and
(19:36):
have the Steelers lose a game, which is much more
likely to happen. I mean the Steelers, like I said,
Chiefs and Bengals, both of them are at home. But
the Ravens win this game, they get the Browns, who
are disaster at home. So the Steelers do have the
tiebreaker as of now. So that's that the AC North
(19:57):
is TBD for the rest of the world.
Speaker 1 (19:59):
So you could see Steelers lose in the morning. I
could see the Ravens even up in their effort coming
out swing and that might be a little you know,
hammer that bet before kickoff if the Steelers just lost
to the Chiefs, because it feels like they could basically
end it because they are going to be massive favorites
against the Browns, who I mean by that time. Who
(20:19):
are there the Browns rolling out Miles Garrett and Ship
for that game. No chance probably, you know, any guy
Like they're not going to risk someone snapping their leg
or having a serious injury. Especially more and more of
these rumors about Miles Garrett potentially maybe this offseason, you know,
kind of pivot. Could he be on the trade block?
That that'll be. It's a big little domino effect right there.
Speaker 2 (20:43):
Yeah, Steelers not would come down to common opponents, the
common opponents Typereckers Steels would be nine and three, Ravens
will be eight and four because they'd have the same
I think conference division and record if they finished tied,
So the Ravens have to finish a game ahead.
Speaker 1 (21:06):
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Speaker 1 (22:41):
Okay, the Thursday night game. I don't understand how the
Bears keep getting shoved down a throat, but has any
tea I don't remember a team that has good players
and then does stuff in the second half like shitty
teams like the Giants, Like they just get their down
big and they just stay down big. This team is
pretty fraudulent in the sense of they'll be down twenty
(23:02):
four to nothing or twenty to nothing or seventeen to nothing,
and then it'll just kind of ebb and flow touchdown
back and forth from there. But it's never the other
team knows they cannot lose the game, and it's like, oh,
look at all these Caleb touchdowns. He hasn't thrown a pick.
It's like he's not even playing in real football games
because of the way they're down. So I don't even
know what to make of him. Obviously, he has a
(23:22):
good arm and he's an intriguing prospect, But to think
he's a good player based on some of these touchdowns
down multiple scores in the second half against playoff teams,
give me a break. Now. On the flip side, Seattle,
that was a pretty devastating l for them on Sunday,
especially after Gino leads him right down. I'm like, this
is like the defining drive of Gino's career. The throw
(23:45):
he made in the back of the end zone looked
like fucking farth. I mean that was like a one
hundred mileter hour fastball. Incredible catch. And then Darnold turns
into Josh Allen meets Mahomes and that's just a big
kick in the you know what for Seattle. Now they're
not technically yet, but to me, I don't even I
could never bet on the Bears, but I could also
see Seattle. It feels like maybe they just had a
(24:08):
juice after that. I mean, that was a kitchen sink
game for him, running fake punts, and I don't know,
wouldn't shock me if they lay an egg here but
their egg it might not matter because you're playing the Bears.
Speaker 2 (24:18):
Yeah, this is a tough game. I mean, you're generally
speaking in the past. In the final two weeks of
the reg season, these teams were playing for nothing and
are out of it. Playing teams that need to win
are a good bet because you're you're usually paying a
premium on the teams that need to win. Everyone knows
they need to win and.
Speaker 1 (24:35):
Like Lions Niners, like what are the Niners playing for now?
Like that that that felt like it's over now nowetting
the Lions the Yeah.
Speaker 2 (24:45):
No, historically those have been good bets. They're still professional.
People still show up. Yeah, I mean the Seahawks have
played the Vikings. If you look yards for play success
for eight yards pert tempt yards per rush they just
made They lost a turnover battle a lot of times
what football games come down to. And they killed themselves
with penalties. The biggest one and they had like ten penalties.
(25:07):
Think the biggest one was they were up four on
the Vikings and they get a sack, which pretty much
would have ended the game. It would have been like
third and twenty, but they drabbed Donald's face mass next
play forty yard touchdown. Devastating loss. But they were really
good in that game. Should have won. But they killed
(25:29):
themselves with their mistakes. They're like, yeah, did they get
up off the mat here? Their defense is trending in
the right direction. They made some personal changes in the secondary,
they got healthier, They made healthier on the defensive line,
they got healthier in the secondary, made some personnel changes
at linebacker McDonald has that team playing well. The one
exception was the Packers game, but the trend line for
that defense they played well last week. They get the
(25:50):
turnover led to a short field on the Vikings, and
the Vikings have a good offense, and then you know,
you get that penalty and give up forty yard touchdown
to Justin Jefson. You had two guys there. They just
whift on it.
Speaker 1 (26:02):
It was it was an incredible throw too. I mean
that that.
Speaker 2 (26:04):
Race brow crushed. It was an amazing throw. It's hard.
It's hard to bet the Bears. I bet some Bears
last week if plus seven it did not end well.
It's amazing that they're They're down every week. It's twenty
to nothing. It's like clockwork come out. I do think
they miss Eberflus.
Speaker 1 (26:25):
On the they're worse. I mean they're they're solid with
the Jets, same thing, right, you move that guy, they
get dramatically worse.
Speaker 2 (26:32):
Yeah, and they missed Eberflus defensively, and then Graham is
in over his head trying to be the head coach
offensive coordinator. It's a mess. They can't stop the run.
So yeah, this is a tough game, like situationally, price wise,
it is probably gonna get too expensive. You supposed to
play the Bears, but can you put your hard earned
(26:55):
money on the Bears right now? I'm not sure. It's
a tough game.
Speaker 1 (26:58):
I think that was a game, even in a loss.
If I'm a Seahawks fan, I'm not saying McDonald's going
to be as good of a coach and have a
resume like Pete Obviously got to win Super Bowl, go
to another one, win a national championship like Pete's a legend,
but clearly the last couple of years his teams did
not look like that. So if I'm a Seattle fan,
(27:19):
you know what Ryan Grubb, who clearly you never know
what the college guy how it's going to transition. I
mean they when they're healthy, they look pretty freaking explosive.
And I think back to the Packer game, the gap
that was pretty I actually earned. I think Gino earned
everyone's respect. Like, hey, guys, we can nitpick me all
we want, but relative to who else we got in
(27:40):
this roster, I look like Joe Montana meets pret Farf.
I mean Sam Howe. Also, it brings in the light
like their ow line sucks, so Gino's kind of mobility
and toughness standing behind there. And Gino has an underrated arm.
You know we talk about big arms. No one ever
mentions him. Sometimes you watch like Jesus, like listen as
a party guy forty nine er guy here. I mean
(28:03):
Gino's throw one hundred pretty thrown like eighty eight, right,
I mean Geno's got a hose. So I I was
impressed with Seattle, and clearly they're not they win this game.
They're not dead by any means. Right, playing the Rams
week eighteen? How does that? Do you know how that
tiebreaker works? If they if they both win this weekend
and then they play week eighteen, is that winner get
in Rams?
Speaker 2 (28:24):
So Rams Seahawks would.
Speaker 1 (28:26):
Be Rams have nine wins. Uh so they they well, no.
Speaker 2 (28:30):
Matter what if the Rams beat the Seahawks, because they
would sweep in.
Speaker 1 (28:34):
Yeah, and they'd have another win than them. So the
Rams control their own destiny.
Speaker 2 (28:40):
Yes, if the Seahawks and Rams both win this week
and then Seattle wins in week eighteen, they'd be finished.
They'd be tied and head to head division and conference
record would come down to strength of victory. And it
looks like the Rams have a clear edge right now.
(29:05):
So the Seahawks need a lot of help, like they
need yeah, they it looks like the Rams. So it
looks like the what the Rams need. I mean, when
the Seahawks need then they need the They need the
Cardinals to win. They Needa Rams, Yeah, and they need
to win. Went out. He has a devastating loss. And
(29:26):
then the Jets not being able to capitalize on any
any trips in the Rams territory really hurt them. So
Rams definitely in the driver's seat as of now.
Speaker 1 (29:36):
I mean, at one point in time on Sunday, it
felt like it was going, like, God, the Jets probably
gonna win this game in Seattle's looking good. It was
about to go the other way.
Speaker 2 (29:45):
That's nine to nine. They were driving. They were like
the twelve yard line and they decided to go for
it on fourth down. Didn't get it, and that kind
of flipped the game. And there was a drive earlier
and then they got down to the three, couldn't score.
They it's a field goal. They turned they went forward
on their own thirty and didn't get it. I mean,
(30:05):
there was a comedy of errors by the Jets, which
really helped the Rams out because they were flat. I
mean they often said nothing in that game. So yeah,
Rams are in the driver's seat. Cardinals eliminated losing to
the Panthers. So that division, which looked like it was
gonna come down to the last game, might not. Based
on how these results go, the Rams might be hitting
(30:28):
pretty okay.
Speaker 1 (30:28):
Before I get you out of here, just looking at
some of these schedules that I know you love a good, random,
shitty bowl game that doesn't matter to most people, but
you always find value. Looks like we've got a pretty
good slate. Friday, Oklahoma Navy, Georgia Tech, Vandy Tech, Arkansas,
Syracuse Wazoo, the Trojans at A and M. Does that
(30:50):
have blowout written all over it for your aggies.
Speaker 2 (30:55):
I don't know. I mean Texas A and M us
he gets to play in Vegas. They played the other
quarterback you used to play. They played the earlier this season.
A and M's three best defensive linemen are opting out.
USC has a bunch of receivers opt out, but they
still have talent there. I think there's a chance they
could potentially keep it close. I got to see who
ends up playing. For sure, Syracuse should blow out Washington State.
(31:17):
That line was that I think opened at three. It's
up to sixteen and a half. Everyone on Syracuse is
playing they care. Brian Brown's all in. They said, we
don't opt out. Washington State is down his head coach,
offense coordinator, defensive coordinator, quarterback coach, running back coach. Eleven
starters have opted out. There might be more for playing
a backup quarterback. That game might close twenty. I'm surprised
(31:38):
Washington State didn't forfeit the bowl.
Speaker 1 (31:40):
Where the defensive the defensive coordinator go with Dicker.
Speaker 2 (31:44):
Their defensive coordinator.
Speaker 1 (31:46):
Because those seeing quarterback went to Oklahoma, right, which feels
a little basketball packaged dally to you? Or am I
just being.
Speaker 2 (31:53):
Conspiracy theory there? Yes, he was fired. Their defensive coordinator
was fired. So yeah, it's an absolute mess.
Speaker 1 (32:04):
Is that quarterback? Is that quarterback good?
Speaker 2 (32:07):
I think he's okay. I don't think he's gonna like
he wasn't playing great competition, and I don't think that's
like the ceiling that Oklahoma thinks.
Speaker 1 (32:15):
I mean, I understand, I don't know. I mean, Jackson Arnold,
he gets benched, he comes back, not totally his fault,
and you were saying this early on, they're missing a
million wide receivers. I mean, you could have put Baker
or Kyler. There would have been a struggle with who
was out there. Then he goes to Auburn, which I
read for like two to three million dollars, which seems
a little crazy to me. But then they go with
(32:36):
this quarterback and this offensive coordinator who I text a
couple of scouting buddies. They are like, yeah, he's really tough,
but I wouldn't exactly say he's you know, what they've
been used to in their heyday. So it just Oklahoma
feels a little lost right now. And maybe it's hard
with the with the nil situation, and maybe they just
felt comfortable getting this package deal. But I mean, you're
(32:56):
seeing these opt outs. It's hard to keep track of.
I mean, every day you look up, there's another guy,
another guy, another guy. A lot of it's declaring for
the draft or transfer portal. But it changes these teams dramatically.
Like you said, Washington State, who I think you tweeted out.
No team finished worse, and it might have simply been
like did everyone kind of see the writing on the wall,
(33:17):
like I'm out, I'm out? The coaches out. Maybe they
all kind of internally quit and they were just looking
forward because they they they were pretty good, like they were,
they've been good the last couple of years. So I
wonder if mentally everyone checked out and they just kind
of went through the motions. Which is it fair to
say that probably is what happened, because I remember your tweet,
like you look at like, how the fuck did they
(33:38):
lose his enormous favorites three times in a row? Well,
now looking back, it kind of makes sense, right, which
I wish we would have known. We would have hammered
the big undroducts. You could have got some of them,
probably like three or four to one.
Speaker 2 (33:49):
Yep, Yeah, they were all double digit dogs. They lost ball,
so like writing was on the wall and then all
everyone has left that could get augillion Syracuse. Some of
the kids that are on the Bowl game last year,
they didn't have a coach. They lost five to nothing.
These teams a without a coach that when they have
all the players opt out, they usually get blown out.
Oklahoma Navy, that line's gone from seven to three. Bunch
(34:09):
of Oklahoma opt outs. I always take the Service Academy
in the Bowl. I just especially when they're a dog
seventy percent against the spread. Excuse me since nineteen seventy
if you just want to go back past ten years,
fifteen and three straight up, fifteen and three against the spread,
seven and two straight up against Power four teams. Why
they always show up? Motivations never questioned. A motivation is
(34:30):
huge for these meaningless bowl games. And Oklahoma. Do they
really want to spend their holiday break preparing for the
triple option? Probably not. Is their staff really focused on
this game? Probably not. They're probably focused on the portal
recruiting next year, so the preparation advantage and Navy they
don't have to do well any of that stuff. Texas
(34:51):
Tech Arkansas is an interesting one. Arkansas a ton of
opt outs. All their receive in the quarterback transfer now
quarterback to Taylor Green. He's staying, but all the receivers
opted out there, tight end, multiple offensive linemen, they're running back.
Their best defensive players are opting out. Texas Tax quarterbacks
out though due to surgery. They're going with the backup quarterback.
I still like Texas Tech one. They're like a one
(35:12):
and a half point dog. I think that they're but
tex Tech also doesn't have any coordinators. They replaced their coordinators.
Really interesting game, but Arkansas's offense is a mess right now.
And Texas Tech their backup. He played some this year.
I think he's actually a better fit for the offense.
He has some mobility. I think TODs Brooks is an
NFL running back, is going to play. He's listed on
the depth chart. If he does. Texas tax roster is
(35:33):
in much better shape. So I like the Red Raiders
at Georgia Tech. Van He's two teams I wanted to
bet in Bowl season with their quarterbacks Haines King, Diego Pavia.
Pavi will be healthier catching three. I think he just
take the points there. But that's a tricky one. Yeah,
Friday some interesting Bowl games, although that Syracuse one could
(35:55):
get ugly.
Speaker 1 (35:55):
Yeah, I like that. Okay, last one though, the Fighting
Belichicks at Fenway Park. Now Freddy Kitchen's legendary Freddy Kitchens
form Browns coach coaching the game, but not really coaching
for a job, because Belichick's already said he's on the staff.
So is this a kitchen sink game for Freddy Kitchens?
Does he even have a kitchen sink game in him?
(36:16):
It's outdoor southern team playing Yukon. Who I'll be honest,
I haven't watch a snap of Yukon football since Jim
Moore has been there, but I would imagine Jim Moore
is gonna take this shit seriously. North Carolina favored by three.
You would imagine Belichick will be kind of usually that
interim guy that's or not the interim guy, but the
new coach who lets another guy coach is usually there.
(36:37):
So I bet a lot of these guys on the
team you would think would want to stay and play
for him. So does North Carolina, who was atrocious this
year on defense. Right, So how does this play out?
Is this the stay away?
Speaker 2 (36:51):
Probably if I was gonna play it, I would play
Yukon just no coach. I don't know invob Belchi's when
he's probably more about the roster construction Kon.
Speaker 1 (37:02):
He might he might not go. He might not go
because they're just doing portal and recruit. He might not.
Speaker 2 (37:06):
They have so much other stuff to do. North Krona
does have some key opt outs that The biggest one
is Hampton is one of the best facts in the country.
It's gonna play in the NFL. He opted out, one
of the best receivers, a couple offensive linemen, so North
Carolina and their best defensive end opted out as well
for the NFL Draft, so they're not at full strength.
(37:26):
Yukon's probably all in here means a lot to their program. Again,
the coachless team, it's Yukon. I mean, look, you're paying
for you're paying the premium here because the line has
come down. But it would be Yukon or nothing. But
we weird game.
Speaker 1 (37:42):
Okay, Stuckey, I'll get you out of here. Have a
good Christmas, have a good Honika, whatever you may celebrate,
enjoy just football.
Speaker 2 (37:50):
That's ye.
Speaker 1 (37:52):
Same and the NFL on Wednesday. So I will talk
to you next week as we get four. Looking forward
to some more college football playoff games as well as
the final week of the NFL, which might not be great,
but so we can focus on college for sure. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (38:08):
I hopefully we get some more competitive college wall playoff games,
which we should get. Georgia Notre Dame at least and
Ohio State Oregon, and that's I got to dive into
the other two matchups and see if Boise State can
make it a game, if Arizona State can make it
a game. They will have two really good backs to
(38:30):
lean on in Ashton Genty and Cam Scatbo. So yeah,
Cam excited to talk about that. But Merry Christmas, Happy
holidays to everyone, early, happy New Year, and now I'll
see you next week.
Speaker 1 (38:41):
We just need one of those two guys to go
like Steph Curry Davidson against Kansas, you know, just just
to rush for like two fifty and have a legendary,
a historic moment in the college world.
Speaker 2 (38:51):
That's the good thing with the teams that benefited the
most from the bye, which wasn't Oregon beause they got
to play Ohio State Georgia because they have to go
to the backup. So one, you don't have to put
him on tape for a game, and you can try
to come up with some things and you know, assimilate
him into the offense. And Notre Dame doesn't really know
what to expect, so they benefited from having that buy.
(39:14):
And then Arizona State and Bois State. Obviously they probably
would have lost in the first round. I shouldn't say probably,
but they would have been underdogs, so them not having
to play an extra game. But you get gent and Scott,
but who got fed the ball all year. You got
some time to rest up, like they're gonna come out
with everything. They got rejuvenated, fresh legs, and I'm sure
(39:37):
both teams are gonna lean on them, so I wouldn't
be surprised the point or both as a really big day.
Speaker 1 (39:42):
Okay, Stuck, you have a great week.
Speaker 2 (39:43):
Talk to you soon YouTube.
Speaker 1 (39:45):
Cheers the volume
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