3 & Out - The return of Stuckey

John is joined by The Action Network's betting expert, Stuckey for his first appearance of the 2024-2025 NCAAF and NFL season. John and Stuckey look ahead to the college football season and talk about some of the programs that are poised for big seasons. Later, the guys dive into the NFL season by recapping some big bets from last post-season, and looking at this season and what we might expect from each division.

6:30 - Stuckey

16:30 - College football look ahead

38:45 - Big picture NFL outlook

Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #Herd

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:01):
The volume. We had the appetizer last week. Now it's
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Speaker 2 (01:05):
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ft ball, What is going on?

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Everybody? John Middlecop three and out podcast. How are we doing?
My people? Here's the game plan because we have this
guy on every single Friday throughout the season. His name
is Stucky. It's actually real name is George. I learned
that through email a couple of years ago, but I
call him Stucky because that's his Twitter handle and Stuck.

(02:08):
He's a gambler and he works for the Action Network,
hosts some podcasts for him. Big Bets on Campus is
a big college football and basketball betting podcast as well
as Action Network. They do an NFL podcast. This guy
knows his stuff and it's why I like him and
he's just the degenerate so we get along.

Speaker 3 (02:27):
Well.

Speaker 1 (02:27):
He's been coming on the show for years. I know
we got new people on the show, but he will
join us every Friday to talk a little gambling. We'll
pick a couple games, usually like three NFL games, and
usually bs a little about the college slate. He lives
in Lexington, Kentucky. I think his wife owns a bar.
They have a good time. So he's a Philly guy originally,

(02:49):
and I'm just gonna rattle off some We're doing some
big picture of future bets, college and pro today and
just talking a little football. So that will be the
show today. We will have podcasts the rest of the
week as well, so fire in those dms at John
Middlecoff appreciate everyone that has. Also, make sure you subscribe
to the podcast if you listen on Collin's feed. This

(03:10):
up on YouTube as it will be every week also,
so you can find us listen to us any way
you want. But Gambling Central here with my main man, Stucky.
But before we dive in to him, I got to
tell you about my friends, my partners, and the official
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(03:33):
you're gonna hear us talking about college and you want
to go to one of these games this fall? Do
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(03:53):
last couple of years. Some grocery bills are up one
hundred percent. I mean, you go to the grocery store
anytime you can save money in twenty twenty four, you
gotta jump on it. And if you want to go
to a concert, you want to go to a comedy show, obviously,
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(04:15):
for twenty dollars off for first purchase terms of play Again,
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lowest prices guaranteed. Okay back with my main man for
the NFL season and college football season news, Fresh off

(04:36):
a little trip to the French Riviera Live in Life,
probably because he hammered so many bets that he nailed
during the NCAA tournament. My main man, Stucky from the
Action Network Big Bets on Campus. They know college football
as well as anybody. Action Network podcast is well hammering
all things NFL stuck. Yet I have not talked to

(04:59):
you since I hit one of the greatest bets of
all time at the US Open with one hundred and
fifty dollars parlay that turned into nineteen K Bryson d Chambeau.
That was I'm not gonna lie. I've probably put in
over the course of the last three months, maybe one
thousand dollars, like just over ten tournaments, you know, one
hundred dollars parlays. I haven't even got remotely close to

(05:21):
hitting it, So it might just be an all time
outlier and I should just ride that one off to
the sunset.

Speaker 3 (05:26):
Quit while you're ahead. Yeah, I did see that. Congrats
on that hit. Epic.

Speaker 1 (05:31):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (05:32):
The last time we talked on camera, the Super Bowl
fortunately went on on top because my pick for the
Super Bowl was the forty nine ers first half because
I was worried about the second half and Wilkes adjusting,
and Wilkes no longer there, didn't really make many adjustments.
But I also mentioned on that podcast a bet that
I made one hundred, one hundred and I think one

(05:54):
hundred and fifty to one to the game to go
to double overtime. And it was one there. I was
watching the play clock and they spotted the ball, so
the clock they had to run another play at the
end of the first overtime and that's when the Chiefs
scored their touchdown. Oh so close. I was on the

(06:15):
floor watching that game.

Speaker 1 (06:17):
How much did you sprinkle on that? Like twenty five bucks?

Speaker 3 (06:21):
I think I ended up getting. I had a couple
other people bet it for me. I think I had
like one hundred bucks, one hundred, just like one hundred
bucks on it. One nice payday though. So yeah, epic
super Bowl. Sorry that your forty nine ers couldn't get
the job done. Certainly in the news though, I mean,
what if I have to go on Twitter or and
see one more thing. I'm sure you're as a forty

(06:42):
nine spend you're even more sick of it than me.
See one more thing about Brandon a you can we
just find where he's gonna go and settle this please
and the Trent Williams News and I'm sure you're sick
of it by now as well.

Speaker 1 (06:53):
Yeah, but by the time people are listening to this,
it'll probably who knows, maybe he'll be playing in the CFL.
There is I have in the history of the league.
I feel very confident about this. There has never been
and there never will be again. A GM. I mean
John Lynch had to come back from vacation in the summer.
They met with him right before training camp. They've met

(07:14):
with him. I don't no one meets this often for
a contract. I mean, this is insanity.

Speaker 3 (07:20):
Like every day. Every day it's like, oh it's close.
We met.

Speaker 1 (07:24):
I appreciate ceedee lamb like I'm not showing up till
I got more money. It's very black and white or
Jamar Chase like I ain't doing shit till you pay me, buddy.
This is like feels very junior high dating or something
like come. I feel bad for John Lynch. I know
he makes a lot of money. You don't sign up
for listen, you have to have a meeting every once
in a while. But thirty five. This is the cal

(07:45):
Ripken record. It's never gonna be touched. I mean they've
met tend to. Even Trent Williams like, call me when
you got thirty million all day, I thinkfing, yeah uh so,
but yeah, man, uh it's been And then looking back
on that stretch, I know you're a Ravens guy, and
that was obviously a pretty rough loss. Were the Chiefs

(08:09):
dogs against the Bills as well in that divisional game?
I think they were?

Speaker 3 (08:14):
Yep.

Speaker 1 (08:14):
Is that one of the greatest stretches when we look
back of like you know, getting nods on a Tiger
Woods or Tom Brady or like a Lebron or Steph
in their prime at just as dogs, that we're ever
gonna see again. I mean, that's never happening like that again.
I mean three straight weeks dogs and some big time
betters clearly hammered the Chiefs now granted that the Niner

(08:36):
game could have gone either way, and even the shit
the Chiefs only scored seventeen points against the Ravens, but
still they won all three games. And if you took
a money line, you catched all three. I just don't
think we're seeing anything like that again in our betting lives,
or at least not for a while.

Speaker 3 (08:51):
Yeah, Mahomes is a dog, has always been just like
free money. I felt I've always said, you gotta be
doumbe not to take the Homes. I didn't do it
in the Super I didn't fade him so far. That's
why I took first half. But I felt for it
against the Ravens. I mean, I had the Ravens early
number before that thing went from three, three and a
half to six. And I'm still infuriated at that game
plan by Todd Munkin. But even if you look at

(09:13):
like the like McDermott, one of the better defensive coordinators
in the NFL, beat the Bills, you know, beat I
know they had injuries, and I know Miami had injuries,
but you know Fangio and then what McDonald did and
that Ravens defense, that historic Ravens defense, and then beating
the forty nine ers in Shanahan and that offense, that

(09:35):
historic offense. It was an epic run. Never doubt Mahomes
in the NFL, especially as an underdog. He gets it
done again. So yeah, epic run him. Yeah I probably won't.
We'll never see that again with Mahomes and Reid and
they just they and look if you look back at
their Super Bowl runs, they just win close games because

(09:58):
you have Mahomes. If you get the all late, you're
probably gonna score. Do you need to you got to,
You got Butcker, you need to clutch kick, You're you're
probably gonna get it. She saw in the Super Bowl.
Then you have read uh and Spagnola one of the
better defensive coordinators in the NFL. So adjustments, game plans,
they have all those intangibles working for them. Twenty six

(10:19):
and twelve in one possession game since twenty twenty, that'll
probably continue. Like you're gonna win more close games than not.
And that's what they've done in the playoffs against the
better teams. You get the ball to Mahomes late. Look
at that Bills game a couple of years ago. Homes
needs to go like forty yards and four seconds and
then Puncher needs to hit a long kick and then
they get the ball and overtime, you know they're gonna

(10:40):
score a lot of a lot of uh, a lot
of parallels to Brady and those those Patriots teams where
you know they're gonna win close games, they're gonna they're
always gonna cover if they were dogs. You just take them.
So uh yeah, credits is the chiefs for getting done again.
They'll be hard to take out for sure.

Speaker 1 (10:56):
Yeah, I mean we got I got some listeners that
are you know, eighteen to twenty that probably don't remember
the early Brady days, even the you know that the
turn of the century, in the late two thousands into
the twenty tens, most of their games came down to
the last five minutes, you know, And that's how most
of this is not college football where you see Michigan
beat the shit out of someone in a national championship

(11:19):
or some of these playoff games that are blowouts in
the NFL, even if you have a dynasty, you go
back to the forty nine ers dynasties of the eighties.
I can't speak on the seventies, but these games are
very close in the NFL in the play I'm talking
the second round, the first round, let alone, you know,
the super Bowl. So before we'll dive into the NFL.

(11:40):
But I want you love college sports as much as anyone.
I know. College football this year obviously a huge curveball.
We got the playoffs. It's gonna be interesting, right because
some of these games, you know, like Ohio State and Michigan.
Over the course of the last what however, many most
of our adult life, a lot of times game has
been a make or break game. Now, maybe not this

(12:03):
individual year, but some of these games aren't going to
necessarily kill you if you each one lost. Teams are
both undefeated. But I think it makes gambling on, you know,
to win the National Championship a little harder, in the
sense that before it was pretty clear, like four or
five teams had a pretty good shot. Now it's like

(12:23):
you see it with the NFL. If you have you
don't win your conference, you got to play more games.
It's football. I mean, you have a bad half, all
of a sudden you lose. I looked at some of
the future odds. Obviously, you know, Georgia, Ohio State, and
Oregon pretty heavy favorites to win the National Championship. But
to me, one team that stood out is Penn State

(12:46):
because Drew Aller was, you know, being a Philly guy,
you are too. I'm not a Philly guy, but I
know a lot of Philly people, Penn State guys. They
were like, this is the next Josh Allen, the next
Josh Allen. Then you watched, You're like, what the hell
is going on here? Well, Penn State's got a lot
of money. They hire Kansas as OC. You know, reading
about that program, I think they're pretty bullish on maybe
figuring some stuff out there. Their defense is pretty elite.

(13:09):
Is that fair to say?

Speaker 3 (13:10):
Yep? Yep?

Speaker 1 (13:11):
I mean twenty two to one to me, again, this
is betting on him, but we have pretty recent sample
size of quarterbacks, a lot of hyphe maybe struggle a year,
then the next year in college, like all of a sudden,
their top five pick. So if you look at it
like is he the guy this year? You know their
defense is championship worthy. It's just going to come down
to the offense. They invest in the OC. Of all

(13:33):
the future bets that that was the one that I
kind of had circled of. I view Penn State as
a playoff team. And then if you view their quarterback
like if he does become a high end NFL guy,
even just a top I would say two rounder, I
would say the odds that's pretty intriguing to me.

Speaker 3 (13:52):
Yeah, I don't. I mean, the thing is that you'll
have to do is you'll have to get James Franklin
to be elite teams, which he hasn't been able to do,
which you always has to bring up when talking about
Penn State. I mean, his record against top five, top
very fair has been brutal. I mean, the guy loves
covering against little sisters of the poor, but he has
not fared well in E league games. Doesn't necessarily mean

(14:14):
that he can't win it in the future, but it's
definitely worth noting because I think coaching will be even
more important going through the bracket of a college football playoff.
I mean, you bring up a fair point, it's going
to come down to aller and I think Penn State
is probably going to make the College Wall PLAYFF. One
of my favorite bets is Michigan to miss the College
Wall Playoff. So you know, there's probably going to be

(14:34):
a handful of teeth that you assume Ohio State, Oregon
are going to get there from the Big Ten's most
likely going to be another team from the Big Ten.
You might get three, four or five from the SEC,
so that team is in their favorite to get there
is probably going to be Penn State. Especially if Michigan
doesn't get there. I just think they lost too much.
I think the mentor loss is huge from a coordinator perspective.
I mean, the Michigan had eighteen guys go to the combine,

(14:55):
thirteen get drafted, seven in the top one hundred, and
a couple other guys signed as undrafted free agents. And
you know, their quarterback, I'm not sure you can throw it.
Their offensive line offensive line lost six guys the NFL
di ever hear that college team lose six guys only
start five.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
Well, it's like when Matt Castle was the backup and
got drafted. You know, It's like was the level and
they lost Jim Harball.

Speaker 3 (15:15):
Yeah yeah, Harball. You lose Harball, and then I think
the mentor loss is huge. And I mean they were
just such a well schooled, well schemed defense. It's kind
of like that Ravens Tree which is taking over the NFL.
You had, like, you know, the the evolution from the
Cover two into the Cover three Pete Carroll Tree. You

(15:36):
saw a lot of those coordinators style out there. They've
evolved a bit. It's kind of like called like the
Seahawks forty nine ers defensive Tree and but now, like
offenses are always going to evolve, but now you're seeing
this more Ravens Tree, you have coordinators from the Ravens
now in Tennessee, Miami you have mintor out and at
the Chargers you have McDonald now in Seattle, and it's

(15:59):
kind of an evolved Fangio defense with just more You know,
there's still going to be your two high shelves, cover
three quarters, mixed coverages, cloud coverages in the back end,
but it's more evolved and more kind of fluid. So
that's really interesting to watch. But I think Michigan will
miss that from a game planning and scheming stuctly bringing
Martin DA's one trick Pony. It's like, hey, we're gonna
blitz everybody, So yeah, Pen but Penn State comes down

(16:20):
to out. I think Colt nick is. I mean, he's
one of the best coordinators in college football. The way
that he uses motion and deception is just at a
next level and he makes things so easy for the
quarterback and so difficult for the defense. Like I still
think they need like an alpha to step up, but
they spread the ball around. You can't when you game

(16:40):
plan for like the for Kansas, you couldn't focus on
one guy. They're thrown to everyone. Motion out of the
backfield the deception. So ken Aller take that next step.
You know last year, if you look at his touchdown
the interception ratio was elite, but he would never throw
it downfield. They didn't do any like they had just
the most basic offense you could ever think of. And
he regard like he's gonna get NFL love. It's kind

(17:02):
of like Will Levis, like he's gonna show up at
the combine and they're gonna everyone's gonna be salivating over him.
Right like he did. He has all he looks the part,
he has a rocket arm, he can make every throw.
Just comes down to like processing and can he take
that next step? And yeah, So I think that if
you want to bet on Penn State to win the

(17:23):
national title, I don't mind the bet to win the
coach Pub he did, but to win the national title
in order to get there. As you said, it comes
down to ell Er all Er being elite. Maybe sprinkle
some on him to win the Heisman as well, because
if he's taken that next step and Penn State is
good enough to win the national title, because I think
it's clearly like Oregon, Georgia, Ohio State are the top tier.

(17:45):
If Penn State gets into that tier. That means Aler
has had a tremendous season and he's exceeded all expectations.
So maybe sprinkle some on the Heisman and Penn State
if you're looking to get Penn State all the way
up to that upper rechelant.

Speaker 1 (17:58):
There's a ton of budget buzz I saw yesterday. Kirby
is like, this is the least and it might just
be coach speak depth we've ever had. Clearly they're high
ends good. But with the Portal Ole Miss Portal King
plus six point fifty to win the SEC, now it
would be the great They've just had the greatest two
year stretch in the history of the program. They've never

(18:19):
won back to back double digit games. But I talked
to a buddy in the NFL who went through the program.
He's like, they are legitimately pretty stacked with dudes. Like
this feels like an LSU Alabama, you know, Florida in
the old days. Like this is a legit team. And
the quarterback who's now played a lot in Jackson Dart
is definitely an NFL guy and getting NFL buzz another
guy that could really jolt himself up everyone in their

(18:43):
mother's pick in Georgia rightfully, So, I mean they've dominated
for a long time. Now, what do you think ole
Miss to win the SEC plus six fifty? Their schedule
is not easy. I mean they played Georgia, uh but
some in flux. I mean Lane beat Brian Kelly last year, right,
Alabama's a little transitional year. I just think that if

(19:04):
you do are a believer in ole Miss going to
the playoffs plus six fifty, because all you got to
do is just if they can just get to the
championship game, right, and they would get a second shot
at Georgia, even if they get beat in that first one,
which I think they get them at home.

Speaker 3 (19:19):
Ye.

Speaker 1 (19:20):
Now the problem with the SEC championship game if you
play Georgia, that's a pretty big home game for them,
So it is difficult. But I just think from an
odd standpoint, that was one number that jumped out to
me because LSU a little transitional year, still new quarterback,
new coordinator Alabama. I just you and I've been talking

(19:40):
about Dubar for a long time. I mean, the Hainars,
the penix, he likes throwing quarterbacks mil Row. I don't
think that's his ideal type. Quarterback. What say you on
that one?

Speaker 3 (19:52):
Yeah, if you're gonna bet, Look, I mean, Oh Miss,
if you look last year, they probably got a bit
fortunate to win the number of games that they did.
I mean, like if you go back to that Texas
A and M game, they won by three. You know,
even Arkansas they only beat by seven, and you know
they played a bunch of teams that had quarterback injuries.
The LSU game was wild. I think it was what

(20:13):
was a score on that fifty nine? Like, so they
won all their coin flip games. And then if you
look when they played Georgia they lost by thirty five,
and when they played Alabama they lost by fourteen. So
like they were good, but they they weren't. And the
next year, so what do they do? They went into
the portal of the number one portal class and I
think they are getting closer. Where it matters is in
the trenches. Like that's where Ole Miss has not been

(20:35):
able to match up with the top tier teams specifically
in the SEC, is in the trenches. And you know
they've had skill position talent. Link Kiffin is an unbelievable
coach and play caller. But now I think they're getting closer.
There's definitely a lot of uncertainty. Like it they're going
into the portal and just reloading every year, so what
is that. It creates a lot of variance, like how

(20:56):
do all these pieces fit together?

Speaker 1 (20:58):
Right?

Speaker 3 (20:58):
It's it's a lot of news. So when you want
to bet on that, there's more variants. You want to
bet on the upside. So yeah, if you want to
bet on ole Miss, then you want to bet on them,
you know, to win the I bet like you just said,
plus six fifty to win the SEC because the talent
is certainly that they're getting much much closer and closing
that gap. And if all these transfer portal pieces come together,

(21:19):
especially on defense, they're they're more well coached on defense
now as well from a coordinator perspective, So they're closing
that gap. If the defense and the trenches are there
and the transfer portal pieces get together, yeah, they're they're
right there. And like you said, they get to post Georgia,
they won't be a huge underdog in that game. It's
a game they certainly can win. I also don't mind

(21:43):
speaking another team that brought in a really good transfer class.
Looking at some upside on Texas, A and M maybe
to potentially make the collegewall playoff. We talked about this
before the show. When do you want to bet these features?
Gott to type your money for so long. The reason
I bet Texander win the collegewall wealf one. They have
a ton of talent, and I think the coaching upgrade
is huge bringing an alcoh Jimbo Fisher, he just had

(22:05):
a guy. It was just time and he was running
such an antiquated offense. They were so conservative and so
I think this is just gonna be a much more
serious team. They've always had talent. They still have a
ton of talent. Can their quarterbacks stay healthy? They're I
mean they're due, They've had quarterback injuries for years. But
the reason I bet Texts A and M is I
think they beat Notre Dame in Week one and that's
a huge game to playoff contenders. Where where is that

(22:27):
game in Texas A and M and H in College station?
If you look at Texas A and M schedule, they
have a really manageable road schedule and all of their
hardest games are at home, one of the best home
field advantages in all of college football. So everyone caught
you know, Missourial miss they and you know they they

(22:47):
missed a lot of the they missed Georgia, so their
schedule is is very manageable. And they host Texas at
the end of the year, you know, maybe be about
a field goal underdog, and they host Notre Dame to
start the year. Those are two huge games. I think
they win that not a big resume boosting game, and
that means that they're ahead of the curve. They win
that game and they look good, that price is gonna

(23:08):
come down. So that's one team that I wanted to
bet to make the playoff before Week one. But speaking
of you know, when to bet is a new market,
So to make the College tuble playoff, to miss the
college football playoff, I assume this market's going to be
up during the year, So it's a new market for
odds makers too. So I think that there's going to
be some opportunity, which we could talk about during the

(23:30):
season to bet some teams, you know, to make the
COLLEGEWABLL playoff after a loss and figuring out that puzzle.
That's what's going to make this more interesting, is these
teams to make or miss the College tub playoff in
that market throughout the season, which I'm excited for.

Speaker 1 (23:46):
Well, last year, I think the Rams when they were
like three and six to make the playoffs, they were
like twenty five or thirty to one or you know
something outrageous, and obviously you know that's the thing. Now,
the odds on a on a blue blood program probably
won't quite get to that unless you're like two and five,
you know, or something. Right, but the lump all ump

(24:07):
Notre Dame in with the acc schools. Obviously, Florida State
gets DJU. You get Clemson, who doesn't mess with the portal,
but he recruits well at Miami or Miami who landed
a quarterback that everyone loves. He's got a lot of talent,
the cam Ward. They paid him a lot of money.

(24:28):
But if you watch him in Washington State, which pretty
good program, depends on the week you watched them, it
was kind of all over the map. Yeah, but no
one disputed his physical Like he's got NFL traits and
Notre Dame, so Notre Dame, Miami, Clems in Florida State.
I mean, there's a chance two of those four of
them get in the playoffs, right, if you assume six

(24:49):
seven ish sec Big ten, maybe two of them, one
Big twelve, one of the random non power five, which
I'm even shocked if they allowed that. That feels like
my take on that would be like, yeah, a non
power five team can get in, but you're not automatically in.
That's how I would do it. And they would say, well,
then we'll never get in. I would say bullshit, because

(25:10):
you're gonna have years when the Boise States or whoever
have such a good year, they're gonna get in. But
I don't like automatically letting them in because what if
like a nine and three Notre Dame or Miami that's
clearly better than like whoever eleven and one you picked
the team, It's like, give me a break. It's just
it's just not the same.

Speaker 3 (25:28):
Yeah, I wouldn't mind that if they had like a
qualifier that like if the the highest rated group of
five team, if they're ranked inside this number, right, because
then that would that's kind of your quality qualifier.

Speaker 1 (25:41):
So many of those programs don't have any big time wins,
so it's like, how do I even compare them to
like a nine and three Miami who beat Notre Dame,
you know, or like not even comparable.

Speaker 3 (25:52):
Yeah, I mean, like, yeah, there's we're gonna see. The
good thing is, which I think will hurt for this
if you're looking at the Group of five market, if
you're looking at you know, teams that are in the mix,
you have like Boise State Memphis. The good thing with
those teams is Boise State in Memphis is like Boise
will play Oregon, Memphis will play Florida State, so that

(26:14):
we'll see like them go off against car teams. The
thing with Liberty last year and Liberty this year is
they play nobody, right, so they could go like eleven
and one to twelve. And I mean Liberty schedule is Campbell,
New Mexico State, utep ECU, APP State, FIU, Kennessaul, Jacksonville State,
Middle Tennessee, UMass, Sam Houston. Like so last year had

(26:36):
a hell of a season. They went played Oregon in
a bowl game and they lost forty five to six.
So I think it's gonna hurt them this year because
people have that perception and you know, once again this
year they don't play anybody. But so yeah, I wouldn't
mind that as well. I think yeah, from that group
that you mentioned, acc Champ's going to get in Notre Dame.
Probably their schedule is very favorable. If they win Texas,

(26:58):
if they beat Texan am, which I don't think that
they're because I mean, I mean, I shouldn't say they're in,
but they're gonna be heavy favorites to get in because
they'll be few.

Speaker 1 (27:05):
Do you like their quarterback situation getting the Duke kid
more than Sam Hartman last year who kind of obviously
once they started playing real teams kind of fill apart.

Speaker 3 (27:13):
It's really interesting that the if Notre's gonna have a
really good defense, I think that Notre name tex A
and m game. Look at that under uh. I know
it's taking some money, but I still like it if
if Hartman had it's really because they just haven't been
able to put it all together because they lost both tackles.
They lost their tackles to the NFL, and then they

(27:34):
are their tackle who's going to start on the left
side is now out for the year. Yeah, probably starting
a freshman. But if they had their tackles and from
last year and their receivers from this year and Hartman Man,
this would be a national title contender with that defense.
So Leonard, I don't he's not as good of a
passer as Hartman, and he's not gonna have as good

(27:54):
as tackles, but he has better receivers. Like they went
out in the portal and got some really good receivers
last year the receivers were bad. Oh and and Leonard
can run better than Hartman. But Hartman is definitely a
better passer, but he just he just didn't have the
receivers last year to really get it done. But among
those among that group, I'm not the ward is too inconsistent.
Marrio Crystal ball hell of a recruiter, and that team

(28:17):
has is loaded with talent across the board on both sides.
A little concerned about the secondary, but Crystal is probably
gonna cost them a game or two. Like it's just
what he does. Last year with Georgia Tech did didn't
take a knee that happened five years earlier when he
was at Oregon. He didn't take a knee cost me
money against Stamford and they fumbled. Stamford got the ball

(28:38):
with an under a minute to go. They could have
right out the clock with his knees, and they ended
up winning in overtime. Like, learn from your mistakes at
least so I don't trust him to win, to not
drop a game or two. So that leads me. And
with Florida State Dju, I just I don't trust him.
If Florida State lost a lot of talent, he did
have a good portal class. But I don't trust Dju

(29:01):
to be that passer in known passing downs when you
know the running game's not working, when the play actions
not working, known third downs. I just don't think he's
consistent enough of a passer. So I have some Clemson
to win the ACC Clemson to make the College twelve Playoff.
It's kind of the post type of Garrett Riley right
after his TCU Everyone's all in on Garrett Riley with
Club Nick was a ton of talent. It just didn't work.

(29:22):
I mean, they had no exposed toness on the offense,
but they did have a ton of injuries. I think
the offensive line should be better, the weapons should be better.
I love these two freshmen. They brought in a wide
receiver who could get playing time right away, and I
think Riley, with the full off season, can Clublic take
that next step. It's kind of similar questions to what
you have with Aler at Penn State. But you know

(29:42):
the defense is going to be good. So yeah, I
like I like Clemson mainly. Part of it is because
I don't like some of the other teams in the ACC,
so I sprinkled on them to make the playoff and
then then win the ACC.

Speaker 1 (29:53):
Okay, last question before we go to the NFL. Ohio State.
I saw Urban say that he was talking with Trestle.
He's like, this probably the most talented team top to
bottom they've had. Talked to an NFL buddy, He's like, listen,
I'm not the biggest Will Howard guy, but he's definitely
an upgrade over the guy last year. You get chip
In who likes running the quarterback. What this guy can
do slow the game down a little bit, play a

(30:15):
little less like they have, you know with the CJ.
Stroud and previously once Ryan Day got there and just
beat you up, almost like at Georgia Alabama. I mean,
do you think Ohio State should and will win the
national Championship? I mean, just on talent alone, are they
the best team? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (30:33):
I think the thing is is that Oregon is not
too far away, and they're just I mean, they have
so much talent too, and they have a better quarterback
situation with Dylan Gabriel. Maybe that's the difference. Like that
game at Oregon, that's basically gonna be a coin flip
when Ohio State goes Oregan, but both teams should make
the Coswall cloff. The difference is that Ohio State defense.
That Ohio State defense is loaded under Jym Knowles with

(30:57):
experience and talent. So yeah, I think we're all talent wise,
Ohio State probably leads to pack. But it's it's a
clear three horse race with Ohio State, Georgia and Oregon.
And we'll see if there's another team from that second
tier that can jump up or maybe one of those
teams you know, takes a step back. And but those

(31:20):
are the three most talented teams. I think I would
probably classify Ohio State as number one in that department.
It's uh, it comes down to the quarterback. That's like
I agree Howard is an upgrade, but it's not like
if they had it Dylan Gabriel, it would be a difference.

Speaker 1 (31:34):
What your what's your take on Gabriel? Obviously he was
good last year, He's played a ton is it a
little downgrade over bow Knicks, but their team is better
or you know, obviously most people. I mean, to put
up bow Knicks numbers feels a little outrageous, but I
would imagine. I mean, this guy's played the last two
years of Oklahoma, so he used to the bright lights.

Speaker 3 (31:53):
I mean, yeah, I think it is a more upside
passing like downfield, Uh, what Nicks does very well. I
mean the short passing using his legs. That's what Sean
Payton's going to try to utilize, right all that it's
kind of like what he was trying to do with
Wilson last year. But Nicks actually isn't washed up with
his legs right, and he can move around, so he's

(32:15):
probably gonna do a lot of those same things that
we saw Gabriel more competent, like downfield aggressive passer question.
So yeah, I don't I don't think it's much of
the drop off, if at all. The question with Gabriel's
the concussions. Can he can he stay health's He's suffered
a couple. That's the only thing I would really worry about.

(32:35):
But that Oregon team is loaded. That Ohio stated at
Oregon game is gonna be awesome.

Speaker 1 (32:48):
Okay, let's go to the National Football League. Just big picture.
I was texted with a buddy on a really good
NFC team and he's like, I think the NFC is
because the last couple of years we lean the AFC
was better, right, quarterbacks, the depth of talent, I don't
really see it there. I like, to me, they're equals. Now.
I'm not saying like that means the NFC is gonna

(33:10):
win the Super Bowl, but like as we saw the
Super Bowl, the NF when the Niners the Chiefs plays
a fucking coin flip. But my point is top to bottom,
it's really hard to win the NFC. I mean, if
these teams parlay what they did last year, you know,
the Packers a lion stay good. Obviously, the Bears, now
we know the Niners and Rams are good. The Eagles
are loaded with talent. I don't think Dallas is necessarily
they might not be a twelve win team, but they

(33:32):
they definitely are a ten win team in my eyes.
And I saw just and rightfully so, because the Chiefs
constantly win the Super Bowl. The on DraftKings, the AFC
was like minus one forty or one thirty five to
win the Super Bowl and the NFC was plus one
oh five. So if you go, well, if the NFC
is just as good, like you're getting plus odds, what's
your take overall on the conferences? Because I think where

(33:55):
we stood, like, are the Ravens as good? Like I
think they're gonna be good, but are they as good
as they were last year? How can they be?

Speaker 3 (34:02):
Like?

Speaker 1 (34:02):
Losing Mike McDonald's pretty big deal. I'm sorry the guy
was fucking nicknamed boy genius.

Speaker 3 (34:08):
Huge deal. And I mean it's gonna help Seattle a lot,
I think, and I also love that offensive coordinator eye
that Seattle. But yeah, I think that you're right. And
I think you can start with the NFC North and
how much improved that division is, and you have four
teams that are on the come up. I know, the

(34:32):
Vikings lost Cousins. Who goes to the Falcons? Who now
makes them a more serious player? Right? You look at
the Falcons last year? The question was quarterback, right, and
I mean, how many times the Desmond ritterd just here
he goes the ball and cost him the game. So
now you're bringing cousins, you draft Panics, so they're a
much more serious contender. And yeah, but the NFC North

(34:52):
the Bears, the question was quarterback, and now you draft
Caleb Williams was as much talent as any prospect seen.
And look, the Packers saw what Jordan Loved did in
the second half of last year. The Lions are one
of the best teams in the NFC. They're building out
their roster, and the Vikings from a coaching standpoint, another

(35:12):
quarterback situation, it'sn't great, but they're gonna be in every game.
O'Connell is one of the best coaches in the NFL.
Brian Ford, excuse me, Brian Floor is one of the
best defensive coordinators. What he's doing. I got talked about
the Fangio tree them, Now the McDonald tree, saw the
Cover three tree. Flora's is the lone wolf he is.
I mean last year Cover two is dying. He led

(35:33):
the league and Cover two he led the league. In
Cover zero, he would have the formations and exotic blitzes
and looks that he was using to confuse opposing quarterbacks.
That guy is a genius.

Speaker 1 (35:45):
He might hate two of but he knows how to
scheme defense.

Speaker 3 (35:49):
Yes, he certainly does. And so yeah, I mean, the
Vikings won't be an easy out, so I think, and
the Panthers won't be as bad as last year for sure.
So yeah, now I probably wouldn't tie up my money
for that long on on on that bet. But yeah,
I think that with these these conferences are now much

(36:09):
closer to even I don't think the Ravens are as
good as Raves since that last year was the Ravens year.
I mean, you had Lamar Jackson MVP year, you had
health which they haven't had in the previous years. On offense,
I know they lost keithon Mitchell, but the you know,
pretty across the board, they were pretty healthy, and you
have McDonald in that defense. Yeah, I mean that was
that every day. They were the best team.

Speaker 1 (36:30):
They had killed the Niners on Christmas. I mean that
was a good matchup for him, and uh yeah, it was.

Speaker 3 (36:37):
Everything was there, and the game plan against the Chiefs
was just atrocious. They decided to way, We're not gonna run,
We're not gonna throw play action, We're gonna turn Lamar
into a drop back passer, even though the Chiefs are
have an elite pasty and I don't I think they
overthought themselves. I don't know what they were doing, but
the Ravens are not as good defensive staff loss as
McDonald lost are big, and they even have some personnel

(36:58):
losses they think they could. The secondary is still gonna
be really good. You know, you still have Roku on there.
It's gonna be really good defense, but soccer be as
good as it was last year, like the first defense
in NFL history to lead the league, and you know,
scoring takeaways and sacks not gonna be that. And their
offensive line major question mark. The offensive line loses three starters.
You canna be relying on a couple of rookies another

(37:19):
guy with a position change. So I think they take
a step back. The Bills take a step back. Bills again,
you could blame Mahomes. They had their their window. It's
still cracked a little bit, but the last couple of
years they were right in the mix and just couldn't
get over the hump of the Chiefs. And now I
think that they're gonna be They're gonna be worse off.
I you know, you lose talent at wide receiver and

(37:41):
on the defensive end, I'm really worried. You lose Milano.
Now Milano's hurt, he's the quarterback of that defense. You
lose both your safeties who are super important in a
McDermott defense on the back end. Uh, you know, it's
more zone heavy, but they're they're safeties and they had
Poyer and hide there Forever he saw with the Bengals
last year when their defense took a big step back
after they lost their main stays at safety, I think

(38:02):
he was gonna see a similar thing with the Bills
this year. And now they have a couple of the
guys they are relying on a step in are hurt.
You might have Hamlin and Taylor Rapp starting Week one
at safety on the back end. That's not great. So
I think the Bills also take a slight step back.
So yeah, you have some of these AFC teams that
I think are taking a slight step back in the NFC.
This is all cyclical, is you know, when teams are bad,

(38:24):
they're going to get better draft picks and start building
up their rosters. So I would agree with you. I
think these two conferences are much closer to even than
they have been in previous years.

Speaker 1 (38:31):
Okay, I want to hit you with a team that
you like more than the market likes, and I'll start
with mine. Every one of their mothers picking in Atlanta, obviously.
Last week they add Judah, they add Justin Simmons, They've
already put Pennix on ice because they clearly don't want
any controversy there. I think that's one's clear. The Saints,

(38:52):
who went nine to eight last year. I think if
you just pulled the average fan, maybe I'll won six
to seven games. They went nine and eight. Now, the
granted they got hot at the end, but Derek was
an abomination the first half of the season. They add
Kubiak from the Niners, who you know, I feel pretty
confident when a McVeigh kyle guy gets hired. We saw

(39:12):
last year with slow expect these guys, especially someone's whose
dad like this guy knows the offense like the back
of his fucking hand. It's a family business. So their
offense is going to be better. And I think their defense,
I'm not trying to overreact to a preseason game, but
they were good on defense last year. You watch their
defense against like they're gonna be good on defense plus
three eighty to win the division when like, if they

(39:33):
just got decent quarterback play last year in probably fifty
percent of the games, they probably win ten eleven games. Well,
I think Derek's going to be much better this year
in this offense, which is much you know, tailored for
make to make it easier on quarterbacks. They have good
offensive personnel. I mean, Taysom Hill is not a quarterback,
but he's a good player. A lave that Kamara, Like

(39:55):
they got players. I like the Saints this year plus
three eighty to win the division, plus one seventy to
make the playoffs. Like, I think they're gonna be a factor.
And I'm not acting like Atlanta's gonna suck, but I
am shorting them a little bit because I think a
little like the Steelers, it just can get weird, and
it can get weird fast when you got really famous
quarterbacks making a lot of money. Now Cousins is better

(40:17):
than anything going on in Pittsburgh, obviously, but like they
paid him a lot of money and now he's got
this guy who's gonna resonate more with the younger players,
who's a plug and play player. It's not like he's
some I just think that's got a situation to get weird.
So I like the Saints this year.

Speaker 3 (40:33):
Yeah. The reason I would disagree with you is number one.
I completely agree with you on the offense last year
very stale, no motion, just not enough play action. And
now you bring in the Shanahan guy, it's gonna be
a much more helpful system for Car and any quarterback.

(40:54):
It's just gonna be a more modern offense and harder
to defend from a defensive perspective, So upgrade there. I'm
not the biggest Dennis Allen believer as a head coach,
really good defensive quarternator. You could say, look, you got Car.
You have a arguably as long as they stay healthy,
a top ten defense. You know, you bring in a
couple of guys with Willie Gay and the defense was
really good last year. You have a really good secondary

(41:16):
and aging defensive line. Some questions there, but the defense
is going to be above average. The question for me,
so Dennis Allen good there with how he coaches, is
too high cover, you know, man heavy defense. The question
though for me and Allen is zero to five win
totals going over is the offensive line and that really

(41:37):
could hold everything back. He lost Pete Ramcheck won't play
for the season. Huge loss. So now you know you're
relying on a rookie left tackle. You're moving Penning over
Trevor Penning over from left right. I think he's a bust.
We'll see if he can actually put it all together,
especially in pass protection. So, and the rookie is playing

(41:59):
left tackle, played right tackle in college. Penning, who was
playing left tackle, is now going to try to play
right tackle.

Speaker 1 (42:05):
So you know, I think I think the rookies it's hard.
Left tackles hard in the NFL. He's a good player, Yeah,
that will mean that that will be big.

Speaker 3 (42:13):
I mean, Lucas Patrick at guard is not good. So
if he can hit, that will take him a long way.
Because what Car needs is protection like he has his offense.
Car is not going to beat you with his legs.
He's and if you look at cars numbers, they're great
when he has time, and they fall off a cliff
when he's under pressure. He's not the most mobile guy.
So can he get the enough protection because last year

(42:37):
he didn't and the offensive line is worse. And last
year he what that sprained ac joint and he was
hurt early in the season. He was he got another spring.
You think he sprained it again late in the season,
Yet he was getting hurt all year. So can he
stay upright and get enough protection for this offense to
run because yeah, they have talented weapons. It'll be a
much more well schemed offense. That will be my only question.

(42:59):
But I don't hate your trying to if I had
to bet a longer shot to win the division, because yeah,
the Falcons at Juda and Simmons were big. So now
they have two good safeties. They needed a pass rusher.
They had none on the team, And that's what I
would have done with a top ten pick. You already
signed Cousins, Like why are you drafting Penis with don't
sign Cousins in draft Pennis or you know, sign Cousins.

(43:23):
Use that pick because you're Hey, you're a contender. Now
you're a favorite to win the Use that for a
pass rusher, which you needed. So at least they addressed that.
But there are questions because Cousins, is he going to
be fully healthy right older? They just think he just
turned thirty six coming off from Achilles' injury, but don't
know how that will impact him. So yeah, they think
that they're a tad over valued. I think the Bucks
take a step back. Baker Mayfield loses canals. That was

(43:47):
as good as you're going to see him. They were
pretty fortunate in a number of metrics. I don't think
that their defense. Their offensive line still has questions, especially
in the interior. So I think the Bucks take a
step back. The Panthers will be better. Yeah, if you're
gonna tap the Falcons, I think the Saints are the
answer for the division, But I just worry about that
offensive line. I think it ultimately might hold them back.

Speaker 1 (44:09):
I think if there was a do over of free agency,
it would be Cousins signs with the Raiders and the
Atlanta signs Wilkins. Like they flipped up those two moves
because it makes sense for both teams. You just put
Pennix in. He's the Atlanta Falcons quarterback. If I told
you the Raiders had a healthy Cousins, they'd be a

(44:29):
lot more interesting than their situation now. And that leads
me to Denver who what's your take on just the
over reaction. Are they better than people think? I mean,
they're six to one to make the playoffs. At first
was high on the Chargers, and then they've had so
many injuries and at any moment, one of those d

(44:50):
linemen can get hurt. I just don't know. I kind
of waffle back and forth. I do think I wonder
if the AFC is a little more open at like
the six and seven seed, and it has it has
been the last couple of years, like it's been a
battle going into December. You know Pennis or excuse me,
not Pennis, but bo Nix, who has the longest odds
of all the starters for the rookie class, right Caleb

(45:11):
heavy favorite to win offensive Rookie of the Year. Jaden
like five to one. He opened at like sixteen seventy
to one. Now I checked yesterday it was down to
eleven to one, where it's fourteen to one last week,
so that number has been going down. He's just gonna
run his offense and maybe they're wide receivers aren't as
bad as people the way you just casually talk. Defensively,
it got a little better as the season went on,

(45:32):
still a question mark. I don't know.

Speaker 3 (45:33):
Their defense is not gonna be great.

Speaker 1 (45:35):
But you know, what's your take on just the reaction
to Denver. He here's the other thing. I don't care
who you are, whether it's you know your girlfriend, whether
it's a boss or someone you work with. When you
like the person you're with, or working with it makes
life a little bit easier. Sean Payton hated Russell Wilson.
Sean Payton really likes this guy, Like that's that's worth

(45:57):
something in my book.

Speaker 3 (45:59):
Yeah, I mean think that brought because the problem is
it's not a very talented roster. Overall, the defense improved.
It was horrendous early. Then they benefited from just like
a lot of turnovers and it wasn't as good as
the improvement was, but they definitely improved. I mean it's
hard not to barb was very low from early in
the season when they gave up what seventy points in
a game Son, But you know I didn't the defense

(46:22):
got worse, Like you just from a who they lost
and who they they didn't really bring in much and
I mean they're still playing ross a ton of money,
so it's not like they improved a ton. You're hoping
the quarterback play gets better. I think Nick's like what
you're betting on there, because Yeah, I'm lower on the
Chargers because I don't think that it's gonna take I
like the hardball higher, and I like Minter. I just

(46:44):
don't think he has the pieces yet to run the defense.
How he wants to speifically. The defensive line, the secondary.
The depth on that Chargers team too, is bad, bad,
And you have a quarterback in Justin Herbert who's dealing
with Planner fasciat. That's gonna be a link issue and
he has to be out or gets hurt, and it's
gonna it's gonna impact how he moves his plant maybe

(47:05):
a huge question because if he can't go for any
stretch of time, you're down to East and stick, which
isn't great, and your pass catchers aren't great. And we
saw that offense work last year when Alan and Williams
were out. So I think the Chargers will be better
off for that higher but it's gonna take a couple
of years to get that roster in the shape that
Harball wants it. So yeah, I don't think. I think

(47:27):
I like the Chargers under. If you could find like
an under nine, I think is out there. I like that. Well,
you're betting on with the broncos Is. You're betting on
Sean Payton a lot of it. So I mean, this
is a guy that's never lost fewer than seven games
in his career, averaged ten point six wins. You know,
over a twenty plus year stretch. So it's a guy

(47:48):
who just knows how to win. I think Nicks can
run his offense. He's gonna be just like kind of
like a fresher version of what Russell Wilson gave him,
with more mobility and less washability.

Speaker 1 (48:00):
So I don't know.

Speaker 3 (48:01):
I yeah, if you want to take a shot on
them to make the playoffs. If you know, if I
were to bet on one team in that division to
win the division, it would probably be the Broncos. And
you know what you're doing there, Like, first of all,

(48:21):
betting against We just talked about this, betting against, betting
against Andy Reid. Patrick Malmes never smart and I think
he's gone nine to two to the over and his
two when he's in can'tas sit in the win total
seventy five percent of the time in his career, Andy
Reid to the over. The only two times they didn't
go over, they lost by a half game. What you're
betting on if you wanted to take a long shots,

(48:42):
I think he would just take the longest shot in
the division. And you're betting on does Mahomes get hurt?

Speaker 1 (48:45):
Right?

Speaker 3 (48:45):
And if he if he does, when, Yeah, the Chief
season is not going to go according to plan, then
you probably want the longest odds in that division with
the Broncos because the Raiders still have a lot of
question marks with Minshew, I love Patrick Grahm's of defensive coordinator.
I think he's super underrated. That's why their defense was
so good last year, but they didn't have They spent
the second fewest dollars on their defense, and you know

(49:07):
they finished in the top ten justin for schedule. He
does so many good things, especially on that defensive line.
He's a guy was with Belichick's charting plays for years.
You know, learned his system. He was under Spagnola, he
was under Flores, learned some quarters under Petton. You know,
he's he has been under some smart defensive minds and
I think he's finally putting it all together.

Speaker 1 (49:27):
But and he's he's an IVY League guy, Isn't he
like Harvard or Yale or one of those schools.

Speaker 3 (49:32):
Smart dude? And yeah, so he raises the ad Wilkins.
So I think their defense is a bit underrated, but
their ceiling isn't very high. Broncos have more variance with
Nicks and because you know what you have with Minshew right,
like his peak is like he will be an average
at best quarterback, but Nicks he brings some upside and

(49:53):
some variants because we don't know what he'll be. So
if he wanted the bet on the Broncos, if you
want about the win total over Tewan Payton's ever lost
year in the seven games, just needs to get to six.
But I think betting on the upside of Denver maybe
to make the playoffs. I don't hate that bet at all.

Speaker 1 (50:10):
Who are you higher on than most people?

Speaker 3 (50:13):
Uh, the Panthers. That's sad to say out loud, but
it was my favorite. We did our preseason podcast like
after the draft on the Action Nemberk podcast, and that
was my favorite. Win total. Then it was four and
a half. Then it's up to five and a half.
I still like it at five and a half. I
think they upgrade him all on the offensive line, specifically

(50:35):
at guard. Bryce Young I don't think is the answer quarterback.
I just think he's too small. But he will be
better than last year and I think Canalis will put
him in better positions. The offense will be much better
similar to the Saints. Just as far as play calling,
and scheme, and you know you have you upgraded at receiver,
I think as well, especially if Lagett can give them something.

Speaker 1 (50:58):
But I like it.

Speaker 3 (50:59):
I like the scheme be much more motion again san
fran La Tree here with the offense, and you're gonna
get They're gonna get young on the move more often too,
with some boots, and that's what you gotta do. You
gotta get him outside the pocket because he's not gonna
be able to sit in the pocket and carve up
NFL defenses. So I think the offense improves. I mean,
there's not much more. They didn't lead in the fourth quarter.

(51:21):
One time they had two wins. They want at the
buzzer and both both times never had a lead in
the fourth quarter. But they were unlucky, like across the board, injuries, fumble,
special teams, you name it. They were unlucky. But I
think they improved on the offense. The defense, it's not
the most talented unit, but I think Everro, who comes
from the Fangio Tree more cover three base, he's kind

(51:41):
of like a hybrid of the San fran and Fangio.
I love him as a defensive coordinator. So I like
the coaching. I think the Bucks take a step back
as well. So yeah, I like the Panthers to go
over their win total. It's as they're probably the team
that first came to mind when you said who am
I higher on than anyone? Who was the Anthers? Sadly
the Carolina Panthers. I'll probably eat my words, but I

(52:03):
like them Week one two plus four against the Saints.

Speaker 1 (52:06):
Okay, the NFC and AFC East, the Bills and Jets
have the same odds to win the division, and I'm sorry,
like I just I can't pick the Jets. Like, to me,
that's kind of crazy. That feels like the Bills, And
I understand where you're coming from. I actually think the
Bills are gonna be just fine. They're gonna benefit their
division sucks, and the Patriots are gonna be terrible. Right.

(52:26):
I think the Dolphins got some pretty big question marks.
Not now, Tyreek's dealing with some stuff with his thumb.
I mean, you can't catch the ball if your thumb's
fucked up. That's not something that just goes away. And
even Mike McDonald or Mike McDaniel said like, yeah, it's
kind of one of those where you can't really do
anything you reinjury it. So that's that's something to monitor.

Speaker 3 (52:43):
Uh.

Speaker 1 (52:44):
And the Jets, to me, I mean, are just so
dependent on these older guys that their injury history, the
litany of I mean, you just go through all of them.
You just type in their name to rotal world of
years and the quarterback's forty years old. And listen, he's
not playing in the last preseason game, or he didn't
if you listened to this last weekend. But whenever I've
seen a clip of them on NFL network, I don't

(53:05):
know if you've noticed this. And again it's hard to tell,
but I don't think Rogers one, he didn't move as
well a couple of years ago before the trade. Now
coming off the achilles, I think his days of being
like the scramble king and throwing the dots, I don't
if he was like a seven or eight out of ten,
what if that's like a five now like that changes?
Is he just gonna start playing like Peyton Manning? You know,

(53:28):
not that he can't throw within the pocket, but part
of his game has been this hybrid player. And if
that's gone to me, that immediately lowers their ceiling of
I think what they were hoping to get before he
hurt his achilles. So, and then obviously the NFC East
is everyone thinks Dallas is just gonna suck, and they
draft and develop offensive lineman as good as anyone. So

(53:49):
if you have a good offensive line, even if you've
got some random dudes on offense, ceed thing will eventually
get done. Ferguson's a good player, like you could find
random running backs. I think Dallas is still gonna be
really competitive. Now, obviously, the Eagles roster like it's pretty legit.
I mean the top to bottom. They got a lot
of good players, but they have like three head coaches.

(54:10):
Fagio doesn't have to listen to anybody. He's running the defense.
The article basically said is like Kellen, you do the offense,
and Knicks kind of stay away from Jalen, and then
Nick just kind of runs the team meetings. So obviously,
to me, they're the most talented team in the division.
But that's got potential to get weird. You're a Philly guy,
you know that market. I don't think the Giants are
any good, and Washington's a wild card, but I wonder

(54:32):
if that divisions a little closer like it has been
the last couple of years than everyone just assumes Dallas
is gonna suck. What say you on that? Yeah?

Speaker 3 (54:39):
AFC East first, I yeah, Patriots are gonna be really bad.
I mean like their their defense could have been good,
but you're losing Bellichick. That's you can't understate that just
from a scheme in preparation perspective, that's a big loss.
I know that he he lost kind of his fastball
as far as you know drafting, building a roster, even
like the special teams fell off, but he could still

(55:00):
gain plan defense. But then you lost Judon. You know,
Barmore is dealing with blood clotts, your best defensive lineman.
So and the offense is gonna be I kind of
like some of the things I've seen from Drake May.
But who's who's blocking point, who's he throwing to? It's
not the best situation for a rookie quarterback after he
takes over from Versett. They're gonna be bad. They the Dolphins,

(55:24):
I mean, they really need to get like Chubb and
Phillips and hope that they're healthy. They're they really need
them from a pass rushing perspective. But yeah, I mean
the Jets are very difficult for me to project, like
I just throw my handsome sad. I don't know, because
it's there's one. Like you said, they need all these
they revamp their offensive line, but these guys have dealt

(55:44):
with a ton of injuries. You you know, brought in
Mike Williams, gonna talking about a guy who's double a
lot of injuries, and then Aaron Rodgers, and I don't like,
can they all stay healthy? Is number one? So the
one thing that's working in their favor and works against
the forty nine ers is you're gonna get the best
version of the Jets in Week one, right when they're
fully healthy, and they're getting the worst version of the
forty nine ers, Like you're gonna play? Is Trent William's

(56:06):
gonna play? Are they gonna be ready to go? McCaffrey, Yeah,
So like that you're gonna get the best that that
helps him on the schedule. But I just don't know,
I just don't know. I mean, the defense is gonna
be really good. You got like seven six or seven
first former first rounders in the front seven, and then
you have, you know, three really good corners led by
Sauce Gardner. But you also Carter and Reed, they're really underrated.

(56:29):
You can play that aggressive style that you do up
front with your defensive line just trying to get after
quarterbacks because you know that your defense can hold up
on the back end. We'll see what happens with the
son Reddick replacing Huff. A lot of turmoil there because
I think they could really use them. But the defense
will be really good. I don't know if it'll be
as good. And they got to stay as they were
really healthy last year. But I just don't know with

(56:51):
Rogers because Rogers, what I can say is that it
would be this year or next. Like Rodgers is gonna
fall off a cliff and he's dealing with that injury
at his age, is he gonna does he have like
one more good year in them? I don't know. Like
it's very hard to predict when these quarterbacks who've been
in the league forever, when they're just gonna suddenly fall
off a cliff. It happens rapidly. So I can't like

(57:12):
a couple of years.

Speaker 1 (57:13):
It happened to Roethlisberger, it happened to Breeze, it happened
to Manning.

Speaker 3 (57:16):
It was just gone yep, And so I that's so
there's definitely some downside risk with the Jets that. I mean,
the good thing is it can't get worse last year
quarterback just with Rogers running the show. But yeah, so
there's there's The Jets are a very hard team for
me to project because of the injuries they're they're just
they need those guys to stay healthy. And I just
don't know what Rogers is gonna be and yeah that

(57:38):
that kind of improvisation is that still gonna be there
recovering from an injury. So uh, yeah, They're difficult for
me to project. And I think in the NFCS a
division that hasn't had a repeat winner in twenty years,
which is insane. U Cowboys miraculously win it last year.
I yeah, I think that the love has gone to

(58:01):
a little too far for the Eagles. They've taken a
lot of money on their win total over the division
odds and the Cowboys there's I still think they're a
really good team. This the A team has won twelve
games three straight years, They've had a top seven offense
and defense, a top ten special teams all three years.
They just in the playoffs, they just haven't got it done.

(58:23):
The offensive line, running back.

Speaker 1 (58:24):
It's more of a.

Speaker 3 (58:25):
Question than it has been in years past. But you're
still gonna have a good offense. You're still gonna have
a good defense. Zimmer is a good coordinator. The you
know obviously ceedee lamb pass. I mean, if he gets hurt,
it's all bets are off. They need him. But he
is an awesome weapon. So I think that the love
has gone a little too far for the Eagles. If
I were to bets the in the win division probably

(58:45):
be the Cowboys right now. I just can't get there
with the Giants. They're like their cornerback. Their defense is
gonna Look at the Titans said last year you bring
in the Shane Bowen who ran like an aggressive zone
heavy defense, and yeah, you have your pass rush is
really good. Your runt seven is a lot of talent.
So did the Titans last year? Yeah? Nothing in the secondary.
The Titans at a bottom three pass ye that's gonna

(59:06):
happen again. Can't guarden anyone, they don't. Their offensive line
still a mess, and Daniel Jones he's just not the answer.
So I can't get to the Giants winning that division.
And my take on Washington, I could be wrong, but
I still questions about their secondary too, and their offensive
line is I think Daniels is he gets comparison to
a lot of quarterbacks. I think he's more like Fields

(59:27):
than Lamar, just from a passing perspective. If you look
at some of his pressure to sack numbers, they're very alarming.
Where he is like among college quarterbacks. You know, he's
in like that Sam Howe territory. So I don't see
the compas. I don't think he has the upside of Lamar.
I think he's closer to like what Justin Fields is,
So yeah, I would. I think that the Eagles have

(59:48):
quiet like I want to see other secredary comes together.
They did address it, but it's a lot of young
pieces who's gonna play where. It's a complex defense that
Fangio runs a lot of times. It takes time for
that to work. I love the love the higher there,
and I love the higher on the offensive side and
Kell Moore. It's gonna be a much more modern offense,
more motion, more play action, harder for defense to the pairport,
but much more complex. Is gonna take some time there,

(01:00:10):
so and you know you lost Kelsey in the middle,
so you know they might take some time for this
this Philly offense and defenses to come together. So yeah,
I would agree with you. I think that the hate
for Dallas, I think has gone a little too far.
Still a really good team.

Speaker 1 (01:00:25):
Okay, let's end on the player that everyone likes talking about,
because we have been for years. Caleb Williams heavy favorite
to win the offensive Rookie of the Year. It's like
less I looked yesterday's like plus one seventy five if
he has a great year or you know, relative to
rookie quarterbacks, how are they not pretty good? Because I'm
not trying to overreact to hard knocks, but clearly their defense,

(01:00:47):
I mean Jalen Johnson's a stud that their defensive line
is going to be good, they have a defensive head coach,
and offensively it's you can't really argue. I mean, Keenan
Allen if he's on the fields a stud, Rome's your
third wide receiver, and shit, Dj Moore would catch eighty
five balls if me or your quarterback, and so you
add Swift. Obviously their offensive line is a little bit
of a question mark, but his to me, the comp

(01:01:09):
for Caleb is much more like prime Russ. He can scramble,
make plays, throw on the move to the left, to
the right. He's kind of a playmaker, even if he's
not as of right now. We'll see if he can
get there a great quote unquote pocket quarterback. But I
think he's good enough to me. The Bears are a
pretty big wild card. You know, you never know because
once you start playing real games, they scheme against you,

(01:01:30):
maybe they rush you a little differently. But I think
if he is just solid, the Bears are gonna be
pretty good.

Speaker 3 (01:01:38):
Yeah. And the thing is with the Bear if you
look at this offense, the offensive line definitely still has questions,
especially in the interior. But I love the hire of
Shane Waldron, who runs kind of like this the Aarhard
Perkins offense. He has some influence. He was Barrember, he
started with the Patriots originally, and then you know, some
influence with the McVeigh type of all defense. And so

(01:02:01):
it's a really good, like I think, offense to get
your start with. He's going to make things easy for
Kayla Williams, who then also is going to add like
his flare and his innovation when he's creating plays and
creating with his lights and making spectacular throws. It's a
conversation every analls is going to say. It's like, can
he just find that right mix right of you know,
going off script, staying on script, but and you know,

(01:02:24):
making sure he doesn't get just too loose with the ball,
trying to create two oftense. You don't want to take
that away from him. That's his best outset. But the
he's he's in a great position. Like he was drafted
number one overall because the Panthers were so bad. Most
quarterbacks drafted number one overall. Right, think about where Drake
may went. That's like the situation that you're walking into.

Speaker 1 (01:02:46):
Jared Goff, I mean usually go to such shitty situations.

Speaker 3 (01:02:49):
Yeah, and they were able to get the dunes, they
were able to add Alan. You already had more. You
have a really good tight end. You know, the offensive
line is is quite but it's better than it's been
in years past, and you have a really good offensive coordinator. So, yeah,
he's in such a good position here. The division is
is tough. What we already talked about, which is improving.

(01:03:11):
But yeah, the Bears, I mean over under I think
eight and a half, which is sky high for a rookie. Quarterback,
which just shows you the situation that he's in. So yeah,
they are the wild card in the NFC. Their defense
did get a bit lucky in the second half the
year where you played some backup quarterbacks, you know, got
some turnover luck. It wasn't as good. It was really

(01:03:32):
bad early in the year. But you also have to
remember they had a defensive coordinator who left abruptly. They
were like in it was all that turmoil with him,
and then Everflu's kind of took over the defense. He's
still like your Cover two influenced guy. Of the of
the coordinators where I know he's a head coach, but
and he brings in a defense coordinator from the Bills,
I'm curious to see. He had some wrinkles from like
the McDermot Jim Johnson Tree. But the Bears, their defense

(01:03:54):
still gonna be good. You got a lockdown corner, you
have some town on the back end. You went out
and paid for a lot of your linebackers are good
out sweat rest of the defensive line. Yeah, sort of questionable,
but the defense is not going to hold them back.
So if Kleb Williams can just come in and the schedule,
the other thing is that I'm not talking about with
the Bears, like everything good situation for Caleb Williams. Well,

(01:04:16):
how about the schedule. I mean, this is the first
eleven twelve weeks are as easy as it gets. And
if you look at the past defenses that they're facing,
like it is as easy as you could possibly get
for a rookie quarterback. Titans, Texans, Colts, Bad Pasty, you know, Rams, Carolina, Jags, Washington, Arizona,

(01:04:43):
New England, Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit like these teams a lot.
I mean, it's the NFL. You're gonna play some good teams,
but these aren't your strongest pass defenses in the NFL.
So he has a you know, a nice opportunity to
kind of ramp up and get used to this offense.
So yeah, the Bears are definitely a wild card. Then

(01:05:03):
they went they won seven games last year, two and
six and one possession games too, So yeah, ultimate wildcard
in the NFC, and they could be a player if
Williams doesn't have. It's hard rookie quarterbacks. It's hard to
you never know, yeah it is, it is, so it's
hard to really, like I always have to.

Speaker 1 (01:05:20):
No one saw CJ s Forroud.

Speaker 3 (01:05:21):
Coming yeah, or Bryce Young being that dead right. So
a lot of times it's like these the milliseconds of
processing NFL defenses and can you make those adjustments? Can
you read the defenses which are constantly changing now on
the back end their coverages that you just don't know.
And going back to the bow Knicks thing, I like,

(01:05:43):
I wouldn't overreact to what you see in the preseason,
not just for Knicks, for anybody. It's just not the same.
You're you're not playing the starters, not playing the so
a lot of this we don't know with rookie quarterbacks.
So but that adds some variant to the Bears. And yeah,
they could be really good if Williams hits.

Speaker 1 (01:05:59):
Okay, Stecky, you're the man. I look forward to week
one and it's always good curveball. You get some things,
especially you you come out of left field on a
couple that everyone you know. So I'm fired up for that.
I haven't dove into the slate at least relative to
the lines yet, but we will do that and I'll
talk to you soon. Man.

Speaker 3 (01:06:17):
Absolutely good to be back. I'm not excited for the season.
Let's do it.

Speaker 1 (01:06:20):
Let's roll the volume