3 & Out - Thursday Night Football Reaction, Rodgers is back, Stuckey joins the podcast - The Herd with Colin Cowherd

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (01:57):
What is going on? Everybody? How are we doing? It's
about eight thirty at night Pacific Standard time, and I
think I just watched pretty rough football game, not if
you're a Jets fan. Rogers looked really good. I gotta
eat crow on that potential upset prediction because that was

(02:19):
not even close. That was that was domination by the
Jet Jets. Jets Jets and Rogers who look good. I mean,
he looked like throwback himself, which is a big positive
if you have money on them to make the playoffs,
if you're a Jets fan, if you just like watching football,
because he is a very enjoyable player to watch, and

(02:42):
one of my big questions was movement stuff, and he
looked a lot better moving around. The Pats, on the
other hand, looked like a lifeless team that did not
want to be in this game, and that that was
is what made the game a tough watch. But the Teers,
Jets go to two and one, the Pats go to
one and two. Pats locaded for a long, long season.

(03:03):
And you know, in a couple of weeks we'll dive
into the Jets and just their overall situation. Drafting offensive lineman,
why it comes to fruition tonight you lose a tackle
boom your top first rounder insert them right in. So
props with Joe Douglas for having reinforcements. Stucky will join
us as well. Stucky will join us, talk gambling, talk
some games, obviously the NFL pick my three favorite games.

(03:27):
We'll talk a little college as well. And for the
mail bag, we just me and Stuck. You went for
like an hour, So I'm gonna move the mail bag
to Saturday. We will have a mail bag that comes
out Saturday, probably like forty five minutes. I try to
bang out a bunch of questions so people keep firing in.
I appreciate everyone that has. If I don't get to you,

(03:49):
I'm not avoiding you on purpose, It's just I can
only do so many. And like I always say, I'm
not shitting on Instagram because it's been a good vehicle
for the mail but it is there's no way to
like really do it in order or like you can
on Gmail or an Excel spreadsheet. Kind of is what
it is, which is fine, but some stuff gets lost

(04:11):
in the shuffle, not on purpose. So I appreciate everyone
who always fires in there. And yeah, other than that,
subscribe to the podcast if you listen on Collins Feed
and the YouTube channel, make sure you go subscribe. But first,
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(05:20):
the New York Jets came to play, and I'll take
d L tonight because I put a lot of faith
in the team that I had seen the last two
weeks in the Patriots the matchup, and they got destroyed.
I mean that they got absolutely housed. Like I said,
the game was over very very quickly. That was that

(05:45):
was an ass whipping. And it starts and ends with
Aaron Rodgers. My concern has been since this injury and
what he would look like was the movement was the
scramble ability, and if you lose that, you get Jared
Goff with a much stronger arm, which isn't a bad thing.

(06:06):
Like He's still a great player from within the pocket.
But part of what made Aaron Rodgers great was the mobility.
And within the first couple plays of that game, scrambled
to the left, he made a throw to his right
that was called back, that ended up being dropped, but
he hit the dude in the hands fifty yard just

(06:28):
like damn. That looks like the Green Bay Packers MVP
level Aaron Rodgers, and I understand this. The Patriots, who
had injuries and no one thought was going to be good,
they tried to change our opinion. They did mine a
little bit through two weeks, but that's the Patriots. We
all expected a bad team, a team with no offensive
line and a quarterback that you know it's going to

(06:51):
be fighting for his life all season long. If Jacobe
can make it seventeen games, the Patriots should give him
twenty five million, not ten, because he is getting the
shit kicked out of them tonight. That offensive line rolling
out rookies who have no chance. Now granted they're calling
holding on plays that aren't holding, but regardless, they had
no chance to night. If Aaron Rodgers is gonna play

(07:11):
like that and like a game. Over first half he
was fifteen to twenty for one hundred and seventy yards,
a touchdown, comes right out in the second half, throws
a touchdown to Garrett Wilson. But that version of that
player against better teams, I might have to eat some
crow on. This team can't make the playoffs, because now

(07:33):
we're gonna learn a lot. They get the Broncos next week,
which should be a w So they're three and one.
Then they play at Minnesota, which before the start of
the season you said would have been a winnable game.
That's much more difficult. Let's give them a loss. There,
they're three and two after five games, three and two
the Jets, it's fine. Then we're gonna learn who they

(07:54):
are because they play the Bills on Monday Night football,
and then the following week they played the Pittsburgh Steelers
on Sunday Night football on the road. So if this
version of Aaron Rodgers, he can stay healthy, he can
stay mobile, they're gonna have a chance. Because he's that
great of a player and the one thing that gave
me hesitation the first couple weeks, Like I don't really

(08:16):
see the offense. They got two really good players. Well,
the backup running back Allen from Wisconsin. Number zero is
a two hundred and thirty five pound force. That is
a fantastic draft pick by Joe Douglas. And you saw
tonight Morgan Moses gets injured. And we've been talking about
with the Chicago Bears. Props to Joe Douglas because that

(08:38):
would have been an easy position to draft a skill guy,
and there was a lot of you know, connection and
hype about them taking brock Bauers. But I think we've
learned over the years lean lineman early if you're gonna
miss miss on an offensive lineman or a defensive lineman.
And when they were in the position last year with

(08:59):
all the moving parts, they take the kid out of
Penn State who had to come in today and if Moses,
who knows, maybe hopefully it's nothing, he was able to
walk off and then they go down to the sideline
and she's like, well he walked off too, like where
no one could see him. And then he got into
a cart, So that could be kind of an old
school tough guy, like, no one's carting me off this field,

(09:21):
But I need some help, So that's something worth monitoring,
but not that big a deal because you have an
offensive lineman waiting in the wings and that has been
a big Obviously, the Jets quarterback play has been nowhere
near the version of I can't imagine being a Jets
fan and I after just watching some of the guys,

(09:41):
it's easy to just point at Zach Wilson, but for
years it's been poor quarterback play and then get that,
like I get your play a terrible team, But to
watch that, to watch the confidence, to watch the ball
come out of his hands, to watch that flick of
the wrist, to watch just how cocky is in his mood,
movements when he gets hit, how he jumps up and

(10:02):
kind of looks at the ref and pass the defensive
lineman on the ass. That had to be a pretty
empowering feeling, like you don't get to experience often in
sports most of my life. Shitty franchises that end up
with the superstar at the end of their career, it's
a disaster. The guys over the hill, it's never the same.

(10:25):
It gets your hopes up, and it felt a little
bit like that last year with Aaron Rodgers's Achilles. You
know Rips right, what four or five plays into the season,
I would say these last couple weeks, definitely tonight Prime Time,
everyone watching him, him giving some you know, Matt Lafour

(10:45):
twenty twenty one, MVP type vibes. Has to have you
feeling pretty good. So I'm not raiding on the parade.
This is not about the opponent. You're gonna look like that.
You have two good running backs, you have reinforcements with
the offensive line. Williams is just a jump ball guy
and a back shoulder guy. Well, who's one of the
greatest to ever do that? Aaron Rodgers. Now I'm not

(11:07):
pivoting and acting like after one night I'm gonna pick him.
I said they were nine and eighteen. Now I think
they can win eleven games. But that stretch against the
Bills in Pittsburgh, We're gonna find out how real this
team is. I still contend that do not love their
head coach. I just don't. I don't like their coaching staff.
Right if you tell me like Robert Sala and Nat

(11:28):
Hackett coming into a game like I'm not gonna like
him in the Bills or the Pittsburgh matchup, like who
are gonna take Tom landor Arthur Smith, Sean McDermott or
Joe Brady, Robert Sala and not Hackett. But you got
Aaron Rodgers. Maybe he just won't listen to anything Hackett says,
and he'll call his own place. And you know they're
gonna need their defense big time to step up as

(11:49):
they start playing some of their better opponents. But they're
two and one. Rogers's vibing. You gotta feel good. Now.
From the Patriots standpoint, there's not much to say. I mean,
this is a team with bad personnel, who's now injured,
who has a first time head coach. I do think
one thing that was interesting. The most interesting part of
this game was nothing to do with on the field.

(12:12):
Robert Kraft. And sometimes, you know, old guys can say
things that are just I guess any human can do this,
But listen, old guys can misremember the truth and say
some things, especially owners. You know, they don't talk that often,
not named Jerry Jones, So when they do make a statement,
you got to take it with a grain of salt.
But if we just take this at face value and

(12:34):
believe him that Robert Craft said that he decided five
years ago that Jerrod Mayo was going to be his
head coach. I will give him credit because at the time,
it would have been pretty easy to go, yeah, Josh
McDaniels is going to be our next head coach. And
remember that was a huge part of like him not
going to Indy. It's like he's the coach in waiting,
and then there were a lot of rumors, well, he

(12:55):
actually officially was not the coach in waiting. They just
paid him a lot of money. But if Robert Kraft knew, listen,
we like this, We love this guy as my offensive coordinator.
Under no circumstances can I make him the head coach.
I'm gonna go with this guy that is a beloved
former player, super high IQ guy. It just gets it
a little bit more than Josh in terms of dealing

(13:17):
with people. Clearly at Josh McDaniel's downfall, props to Robert Kraft,
who you have to say this, he wanted Belichick when
no one else did, and that one played out pretty
well and he's had a lot of time. They showed
the visual tonight of him drafting Mayo way back in
the day, I think was eight or nine draft and
obviously he's been around him for you know, going on

(13:39):
sixteen years now, So we'll see how this plays out.
I mean that their team is just really really shitty
and personnel wise when they go into a game, I
don't even have their schedule up, but unless they're playing
the Panthers, uh, they're gonna be at a huge disadvantage
in any time they play any team with a pulse
and some players, it could get ugly. And it ca'n

(14:01):
get ugly fast. I mean, the quarterback can't really move.
They have an offensive line in the camp. Offensive line
that camp block. But I will also give them credit
on this, and it's gonna be hard to hold to this.
If Jacoby is able to stay healthy, which I would
say feels like a miracle at this point in time
for the entirety of the season, if they can stick
with the plan not throwing Drake May out there, I'll

(14:23):
give them credit because that is the right thing to do.
And I'm a big believer and you learn by experience.
I say it all the time. It's why I like
playing rookie quarterbacks. It's why I always recommend. So many
people talk, well I'm gonna do this, just do it.
Just do it, no matter what you do, no matter
what industry you work, and sometimes you just have that's
the only way you improve. But in this situation, with

(14:44):
those people walking for him, it could get him killed.
And I think the risk for a guy that is
a project when no one can block for him, is
the risk is not worth there now? Is he not
gonna gain certain steps by not getting on the field
for sure? Obviously you know you can improve mentally and

(15:06):
through practice, which I also give them credit. Is no
team lets anybody take first team reps, but your starting quarterback.
It's the way the NFL works. All the star quarterbacks
never give up one rep. Occasionally, certain teams may give
five percent of the reps they're going seventy thirty. And

(15:27):
I think sometimes the nature of football, I gotta win,
I gotta win, I gotta win. Now they are seeing
the big picture, So giving him extra reps that no
team gives their backup quarterback in practice does have value.
And that's part of the reason why I'm a big
proponent like rookie quarterbacks. If you're not the starter, you're

(15:49):
just kind of servicing the starting defense. You're not working
on your own offense. You're not working on implementing a
game plan because you don't take any of the reps. Well,
the Patriots are bucking that trend a little bit, doing
it a little differently. So I do think that's really
smart and that they deserve credit for kind of getting
it because no one usually gets it. That's not the way,

(16:10):
that's not the way it works, it's not the way
it ever happens. So it's gonna be a long season. Tonight.
I mean they were a couple injuries and the un
listen road team Thursday night, but still, I mean, that
was bad. They looked, probably by the second or third series,
like they didn't really want to be there. And in

(16:31):
the NFL, when you're playing Aaron Rodgers and you just
don't want to be there, you're gonna get molly wopped.
And that's what happened tonight. Okay, back at it again,
Beautiful Friday, which means football's right around the corner. Star

(16:55):
of the Action Network, Stucky. Doesn't get any better than
this into Week three in the NFL. Week four in
college football, football is flowing. We got melk Kuiper saying
they should ban Cover two. We got scoring, We got
scoring in stats. Why don't we just ban linebackers? I mean,
why don't we just ban slot receivers. But let's be real,

(17:20):
you're a you got numbers up the wazoo. Scoring has
been way down, obviously, it's some like historic lows, a
ton of field goal attempts, red zone play has been horrendous.
What's your overall thought on the landscape? Not necessarily on
Melkiper's comment, because that's to me just a throwaway comment

(17:42):
that's your classic gets a lot of reaction on social media.
That's never gonna happen because you literally can't do that.
But just overall offense versus defense so far in the
National Football League sucky.

Speaker 4 (17:54):
Yeah, it's an assen on comment. I mean the number
the most frequently called coverage, you know, and a lot
of times there's like cloud coverages and then you know
ones there are split coverages. One side of the field
you have uh, you know, cover two, the other side
of the field you have cover So it's not that simple.
And the and the most frequent one is you know,

(18:15):
cover three, and so cover three and Cover one are
still more frequently run than Cover two. There's a lot
of teams now like the Fanji try that will have
to I safeties but rotate in to cover one, cover three.
So there are the coverages are more complex. There is
a greater focus on taking away the explosive play. So

(18:39):
that's that's part of it. It's you know, you have
to drive the field, and you know running is becoming
more efficient or and then it has been in the
recent past, and it's like catching up to passing from
an efficiency standpoint. I also think like offensive lines are
not They're behind where defensive lines have gotten to and

(18:59):
how teams of you are using you know, simulated pressures,
and just the talent level at the defensive end position
compared to maybe the lack of talent at the offensive
tackle position. Look at the Chiefs right the Chiefs are
just dnking and dunking all over the place. Their tackle
position is kind of a mess right now, and everyone
just wants to take away the exposive play. So they're

(19:21):
like a great case study of what's going on in
the NFL because in order to beat a lot of
those covers, you need time and a lot of these
teams aren't getting the protection. Also, the bottom barrel of
the league in the quarterback plays way down. I mean
you look at some of these rookies who are really struggling.

(19:42):
I mean, outside of.

Speaker 1 (19:44):
Some of them, they they all if you just remove
Jaden's runs, they've been They've thrown a touchdown pass the
three of them.

Speaker 4 (19:50):
Yeah, but even going back to the last couple of years,
it's outside of Purty and Stroud, you know who's really
killing it. So there also is you know, I think
that there's more of a teams now more often won't

(20:11):
play like their quarterbacks in preseason, and so I think
the defenses are usually now even more so ahead of
the offenses. Early in the season. You did mention red
zone scoring. Red zone trips are still kind of on
par with where they've been. I tweeted this out last
week and I said, I've never seen so many turnovers

(20:34):
inside the ten yard line on one Sunday, a lot
of red zone production. It's just that that's a lot
of variance, so you would expect that to bounce back.
So some of it's just noise and red zone noise.
But this has been a trend over the past couple
of years. I think, like offensive line play, the focus
of defenses on you know, taking away the exposive play,

(20:58):
the quarterback play, especially at the bottom of league, is
historically bad. And then you know the defensive line talent, scheme,
evolution and complexity is all contributings to I think it's
a hodgepodge of reasons.

Speaker 1 (21:16):
Well, I've been saying this for a while. When I
first got into the NFL in twenty ten, there weren't
that many great pass rushing defensive tackles, and then right
around twenty eleven twenty twelve, there just started being every
year multiple Fletcher Cox, Aaron Donald's. Now, look how many
teams feel good about like we got a big time

(21:39):
interior pass rusher. I'd say most teams. All the good
ones have like high end guys, and a lot of
random teams have good ones. Even the Panthers had Derek Brown,
who like would start for every team obviously got injured.
Yet the offensive line position guards, I would say garden
center play is way down over the course of the

(21:59):
last decade because I used to feel like shit, you
can find Kelsey's and random guards and centers in the fifth, sixth,
seventh round and they can become like pro bowlers. It's
much harder to do now. I do think the tackles
you know, we just it looks like we're probably gonna
have a pretty good tackle draft, and those kind of
goes in waves because that's a specific like six five
sixty six body type. But the Garden Center play and

(22:21):
maybe I mean you and I both watched a lot
of college football. The influx of just the the offensive
schemes in college it's not the nineties and two thousands.
You know, when I was at Frisno State, like we
ran an NFL power offense, as did Pete Carroll has
did a lot of teams in college football. How many
teams in college football don't spread that shit out now

(22:42):
so that you know, you can still develop the tackle
right because they're kind of a raw product when they
had that body size. But the Garden Center thing is
a little more hit or miss where there used to be.
You know, the Niners got that poony guy from Kansas.
There used to be like six of him in a draft,
and they'd.

Speaker 4 (22:59):
Be It's a great point. Teams are more focused on
getting that interior pass rush. You know, guys like Wilkins
and Chris Jones. You can go on and on. Look
at the season that Matabuke had for the Ravens last year.
Nothing disrupts a passing play more than interior pressure, and

(23:20):
NFL teams to figure that out. It's not like the
you know, going back to the great two thousand Ravens defenses,
where you would just have run Sarah Usa and Sam
Adams who would just use a big houses up front
to eat blocks for the line to free up the linebackers.
Whereas now it's more about generating that interior pressure. And yeah,

(23:41):
that's part of it too. It's a great point with
the NFL. The college offenses, you know, more of a spread,
and I think so you don't have the same guard prototype.
But also the quarterbacks aren't really asked to run a
a pro style offense as much, so like they're they're

(24:03):
not used to reading d and I think that's that's
part of what you're seeing with a lot of these
these young quarterbacks where they just seem to be lost
coming up to the NFL and not being able to
get up to speed. So I think it's a great point.

Speaker 1 (24:15):
Did you see the viral video viral video last week
of bow Nicks getting the play call in from Sean
Payton and he's like listening, listening, listening. Then he has
to look at his cards, then he has to listen
a little more. I mean, it looked and you know
it's gone viral over the year. Sean Payton's just play
calls in general looked like he was reading him a book.
And I can't imagine, you know, Oregon's like green left right.

(24:37):
I mean, it's obviously what he ran An Auburn was
not very complicated. So you know, I'm not trying to
act like I was, you know, totally missed the bow
Knicks preseason hype. But the transition obviously to the regular season,
the intensity of the play calls from the game plan,
clearly he's a little overwhelmed right now. As so it's Caleb.

(24:57):
I mean, they all are. They're swimming.

Speaker 4 (25:00):
Yeah yeah. And also if you look at you know,
I mean back to the offensive line, Cayley Williams. You
know you're dealing with NFL pass rushes now. That offensive line.
The Bears offensive line is a mess. They give up
thirty seven pressures last week to Houston. That's just an
insane number. You know, bo Nicks under constant pressure. So yeah,

(25:25):
the offensive line play a lot of these teams is
really bad. One of the questions coming into the year
with the Saints and their offensive line has been tremendous
and look what they did blast Seek. Their offense looks
like a juggernaut.

Speaker 1 (25:38):
Well, I think one thing I think the Bears would
like back Roma Dunese loved him as a prospect. Obviously
from a character standpoint, everyone loved him. You only get
so many opportunities to have two top ten picks. And
a huge reason I saw Baldy put this out, the
kid from Oregon State Fuaga could like play all five positions.
There's not such anything you know, can't miss doesn't exist.

(26:02):
But he was pretty close to like he was going
to be solid. Now, maybe he's better than anyone thought. Like,
I think if the Bears had a do over, like
you can find wide receivers, but you get an opportunity
to take a high end offensive lineman that even if
you feel good about your tackle spot at this sarta
mcguard move them over like that. That's one they're probably
regretting right now. Yeah.

Speaker 4 (26:24):
I think I think I heard Belichick bring that up on.

Speaker 1 (26:27):
Somewhat of the seventeen podcasts.

Speaker 4 (26:30):
Yeah, he was just talking about their roster construction, and
I mean you already had DJ Moore, you went out
and got Keenan Allen. You were fortunate enough to get
that number one pick because of the Panthers you got.
You think as your franchise quarterback, you know you really
want to help him out with offensive line help, and

(26:51):
they just really didn't address it as much as you
would have liked. And doesn't matter who you have out
there to throw to if if you can't get proper protection,
and it's also going to like shake his confidence and
he's not up to like NFL speed yet and dealing
with the pressure of feeling it out knowing when to
get rid of it. So yeah, I agree. I think

(27:14):
I would have went offensive line there as well.

Speaker 1 (27:16):
Why aren't the Chargers a good example that I would
say over half the GMS or whoever would have been
in charge GM slash coach in their spot this year
would have taken probably neighbors to put with with Justin Herbert.
I mean, he would have been sweet, he is sweet,
But Jim Harbaugh never hesitated. He was never going to

(27:36):
take a wide receiver. And you look at them through
two weeks like they look exactly like his teams for
the last fifteen years. They want now JK Dobbins and
you know him well. Ravens clearly looks healthy and they
are shoving. I know they played the Panthers, but Jim
would play like that against you know, the mid seventies Steelers.
He'd play like that against a high school team, like

(27:57):
that's how he wants to play, and you look at
them this week. Let's just dive into that game because
my take, it's like it's tough to take the Chargers
at a dog on the road. But I do think
the over under. This is just a classic contrarian. This
is gonna be a sexy under everyone thinks because both
these two teams wouldn't mind winning this thing, like twelve

(28:19):
to nine. I'm just gonna take the over just because
I think conventional wisdom and we've seen through the first
two weeks and you know, things change. So it's these underdogs.
I mean, they had an incredible week last week, did
they not. It was like, I'm gonna take the over
in this game because I do think this is a
spot where if Pittsburgh slows down the run, it could

(28:41):
be hard for the Chargers. But I do wonder if
it's just one of those Damn, it's fifteen to ten
at halftime one of those Am I crazy for that
logic because that's one of my favorite bets basically just
betting against conventional wisdom.

Speaker 4 (28:56):
I mean it is a super low total.

Speaker 1 (28:58):
Numbers tiny at thirty I looked more was thirty six.

Speaker 4 (29:01):
Yeah, so I mean twenty to seventeen gets you over.
This is like an Iowa total, and I think Iowa
Minnesota totals around thirty five thirty six.

Speaker 1 (29:10):
This is a bit as small as you get in
the NFL. Would you say thirty five thirty.

Speaker 4 (29:13):
Six, Yeah, you could go. I mean the lowest you'll
ever get is that. I can remember betting NFL for
like twenty years.

Speaker 1 (29:23):
I mean you'll have like Thursday night game that's sloppy.

Speaker 4 (29:27):
Yeah, like you'll have like a some thirty threes back.
I remember like thirty two thirty threes in like Cleveland
with you know when there's like thirty forty mile an
hour wins the Bear, like the Bears in the mid
two thousands with their dominant D and they had you know,
no offense. So yeah, this is but this is getting
there as low as as you're you're really going to see,

(29:49):
and in today's day and age, even with scoring down.
You know, I.

Speaker 1 (29:55):
I like Harbaugh's dog here.

Speaker 4 (29:58):
I prefer to tease. This is a really good teaser
piece because if you can tease an underdog in the
NFL threw three through seven with a super low total
total this low, it's a really good bet, even with
teaser prices increasing, especially if you can still find like
a minus one twenty which are out there. But even
at minus one thirty, you know, you tease this off,
tease it with you know, maybe the Bengals down to

(30:22):
one and a half. I you know, the the thing
that scares me by betting the the Chargers here because
I'm gonna tease them. The Steelers just find ways to
win these close games, two and zero one possession games
this year. They're thirty three and eleven in one possession
games since twenty twenty. That's an obscene number when you

(30:46):
consider the quarterbacks. They've had thirty one and thirteen against
the spread in those games. The steel with both these
teams are you know, because the one scary thing about
this over I agree that it's probably an over reaction.
Like red zone you want to talk about red zone production,
It should probably bounce back. And the Steelers have been
doing nothing but kicking field goals. I think they have

(31:08):
one touchdown through two games and they're two and zero,
which is pretty crazy.

Speaker 1 (31:11):
They did hit a couple of big plays last week.
They were called back.

Speaker 4 (31:14):
Yes, yeah, Pickens had he had a really good game.
Uncertain it won't show up in the in the statue.
He drew a big person pass interference and then he
caught a huge pass that was brought back. But the
Steelers are They're first in rush attempts. They're just trying
to run the ball. They first in two tight end sets.
But they're like twenty ninth in rush success rate twenty
ninth and rush EPA. So they're not doing it very efficiently.

(31:37):
They're relying on their defense.

Speaker 1 (31:39):
Now.

Speaker 4 (31:40):
It helps when you play you know, Bo Nix and
that Broncos team, so maybe you have to open up
a little more. You are playing justin Herbert and you
know they their first game the Steelers played, they played
the Falcons where Kirk Cousins was first game back. He
was hurt, like so you didn't play in preseason. You

(32:02):
obviously saw he was completely rusty, and they didn't put
him under center. It was the most predictable offensive game
plan I've ever seen in my life. Just kissol, we
run at shotgun, we throw it. The Steelers were all
over what wrecked habit on the game, so they were
able to play that way right and just hey, we
can win this game fifteen to ten because the other offense.

Speaker 1 (32:21):
He can't move. Their pass rush is awesome. So it
was a perfect storm.

Speaker 4 (32:25):
Yeah. So now with Herbert, his offensive line is really good,
and you want to talk about a guy you know
them drafting all week one, he took care of Crosby
in his first ever start, So you know, the weapons
aren't great for the Chargers, but you know, Herbert is

(32:45):
in a much better spot than the quarterbacks that they
faced over the first two weeks. The only thing that
scares me a bit is the Herbert injury. So he
you know, he's dealing with an ankle injury on the
same foot that has Planner fascia. So how healthy is
he going to be? Is he going to just be
too limited to move around dealing with that passbutch? Even
though the Chargers offensive line is pretty good, so yeah,

(33:07):
I don't hate the contrarian. Look here going over with
at such a low number, you don't look if you're
bet in the under. Are you need a lot of
things to go right? You can't. You can't have like.

Speaker 1 (33:19):
A you know, fumble six.

Speaker 4 (33:20):
Yeah, both of the fields in the past has made
some dumb mistakes and if Herbert isn't that mobile, he
could get stripped. What can always wreck havoc on a game.
But I prefer to to tease the Chargers up.

Speaker 1 (33:36):
I know this looking back at like harbus first year
at Stanford, his first year at the Niners. If you
like the Chargers coming into this season, this is the
type game that he kind of puts a stamp early
on and he was like, damn this they are going
to be, you know, way better than people imagine, just
because their rosters wasn't as good as it has been

(33:56):
in the past years with some of the Chargers. But
I'm tempted. I got to see, you know how this
justin Herbert. You know, does he practice now? Harbaugh's I
would say, top five guy. That's very weird with injuries,
so you can never tell, you know, with his comments,
and he already had issues and in training camp when
they're like his Bosa okay, He's like, what are you
guys talking about? It's like we saw him leave practice

(34:18):
and he just gets very awkward in those situations. Okay,
uh yeah, it'll be it'll be a good thing you meant.

Speaker 4 (34:23):
Good data point for both teams. Steelers played the Falcons
when he couldn't really take much from that offense, and
then you know the Bonex and the Chargers played the
Panthers and the Raiders in their first two games, so
very easy competition for both to get the two and
l this. I agree, this game Harbo would normally win,
is a game that Tom will know always wins. Good

(34:45):
data point for both teams, especially the offenses stepping up
in class defensively.

Speaker 1 (34:52):
Okay, last week, I like the the Old g Men
against Washington and they didn't cover, but never kicker. It
was it didn't have a kicker. Was a close game
though the time of possession, Washington was working them in
terms of yards. They're red zone offense. I swore to
guy they had three penalties every time that they got
inside the ten yard line. That game could have been

(35:15):
fifteen points instead of three. But looking at Cleveland here,
they scored seventeen points in week one, they scored eighteen
points in week two. I think we acknowledge right, they're
not a great offense. So they're playing the Giants and
look this morning, it's six and a half. I'm with everybody.
I don't think the Giants are good, but I don't
think Cleveland at this point in time in the season

(35:37):
should be giving up close to a touchdown to any
That's just for a team that can't score. I mean,
if the Giants just score ten points and they score fifteen,
I mean it's like, again, I feel sick and icky
doing this, but I love this number with the Giants.
Am I crazy a bit?

Speaker 4 (35:57):
I mean fading Deshaun Watson is a favorite as from
the win by Margine, and.

Speaker 1 (36:01):
I think the Jags think stucky, so that that game, like,
I don't think the Jags good.

Speaker 4 (36:05):
Yeah, and the Browns didn't really do much offense. They
had a really good scripted drive and then the jag
shot themselves in the foot a lot and wilets in
a good first quarter then not much else. You know,
the one thing that would so if you if you
want to fade the Shaun Watson as a big favorite
in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (36:23):
That's part of my logic. Gear.

Speaker 4 (36:24):
Yeah, I don't hate it. I would prefer getting a seven.
I would be a little more interested at seven because
the one thing that scares me is a Jim Schwartz
defense generally eats up bad quarterback play, and Daniel Jones
under pressure is one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
We saw what Flores did do him in Week one.

(36:46):
It was a disaster. You know, Schwartz is going to
bring the pressure, take advantage of that offensive line, which,
while improved, is still an area of weakness they have.
Uh you know, Ward last week only played eleven snaps
dealing with an injury. They expect to ramp that up.
It's one of the best corns. I mean, the Browns
have three really good corners, can they They They are

(37:08):
probably more equipped than anyone to stick with Neighbors who
got eighteen targets last week. And if you do that,
I mean, how are the Giants moving the ball? I
just I don't know. Jones is gonna be under pressure.
He's probably gonna make some mistakes. He's probably gonna fumble,
He's gonna get stripped. So I would lean I would

(37:30):
take a look at that under there, because I don't
think the Browns offense is any good. So if I
do like the under and you're catching seven. I don't
hate it, but I prefer the under to the side.
The Giants offense could look just as messy as it
did at home in Week one against Minnesota, who doesn't
have the same chops in the secondary as Cleveland.

Speaker 1 (37:52):
I remember texting with a buddy before the draft who
knows the GM awesome for it pretty well with the cards,
and I'm like, you think they would take Neighbors at
four over Harrison. He's like, no chance. He's just he's
gonna go safe with Harrison. And obviously Harrison's good, but
just you know, determining those two players, Neighbors are a little riskier,
just some question marks. He would have been pretty sweet

(38:14):
in that offense with Kyler and Troy McBride because he's
gonna waste away a little bit this year with dj Okay.
This game is interesting. Eagles at the Saints. That was
a devastating loss. Bro on Monday night. I mean, that
was that was rough moment for Fangio, rough moment for

(38:35):
the rookie corner that the Eagles d line. You talk
about a unit that got has multiple top fifteen picks.
They pay hulf A bunch of money. He's done nothing.
You know, Brandon Graham's just long in the tooth. They
are getting no pressure, I mean none. It's kind of
crazy because two years ago, I mean, they were like

(38:55):
leading the league in every statistical category right with their front.
It was dominant, didn't They have like four guys that
at double digit sacks with Hardgrave and Fletcher Cox and
Riddick was balling then. But this unit is a big problem.
And part of Fangio like he's this, ain't Jim Schwartz
or Floor is like, yeah, he's even Tamiko, who I

(39:17):
think you know historically is not a big blitz guy.
But like it was working, We'll just keep doing it
every single play against Caleb, Like Fangio just will not
do that. He's an old, stubborn sob uh. But is
there a little overreaction here, Like what would the look
aheadline been two weeks ago on this game? Would it

(39:38):
have been the Eagles as a dog, or would have
been closer to a pick him or the Eagles even
favored in this moment? Or are the Eagles just because
I thought Jalen had a pretty good night on Monday Night,
The Falcons aren't bad on defense. They're really physical, Judan
adds a little pass rush element. Their secondary is pretty solid. Obviously,
Raheem's a good defensive coach. I do wonder if it's

(39:59):
just kind of human name. Sure, you start feeling yourself
a little bit. If you're the Saints, I mean you've
been just you can't start any better. I mean, I
think the stats on their drives they literally scored a
touchdown or field goal, like basically ninety nine percent of
their drives is crazy. So I I think I kind
of liked the Eagles in this moment, though reluctantly.

Speaker 4 (40:19):
Yeah, I mean, I think it's on principle, I think
it's a bit of an overaction. I think before this weekend,
the look aad line was Eagles minus two and a half,
and then after this weekend it flipped by points. It's
good about to go to three Saints minus three the

(40:39):
last I checked.

Speaker 1 (40:40):
That's that's a that's a big swing.

Speaker 4 (40:42):
For not I don't think it would have sung the
much of the Eagles were sitting at two and oh
they just they did two toush pushes or Barkley caught
that ball. So it's a big overaction now having said
that the Saints could end up being right. We only
have two data points, so you don't want to overact
too much. But fast forward towards the end of the season,

(41:03):
say the Saints are as dominants they've looked, then this
would be cheaper, right, So it should be over a
field goal, you know, because we're still relying on some
priors and prior market ratings that we had coming into
the year. But the Saints will got a completely different team,
And you're right, the Eagles defense has major issues. The
Fangio defense relies on guys up front winning and they're

(41:27):
not doing that. Their linebackers aren't any good, and the
secondary all these new pieces there's it's a complex defense
and they're still not there. Usually, like Fanjia, the first year,
it's a struggle, or at least in the first half
of the year. Year two's really when you see defenders
start to grasp what he wants to do in the secondary,
and there's a lot of new guys there, so you're
seeing some coverage bus I mean, look no further than

(41:49):
that last drive where Cousins went right down the field
in what seemed like.

Speaker 1 (41:53):
Well the safety was playing seventy five yards back. That's
a huge gap. What are you doing?

Speaker 4 (41:58):
Yeah?

Speaker 1 (41:58):
That was insane and Tyreek Hill's not on the field.
We don't have to be this conservative here.

Speaker 4 (42:04):
Yeah, a mind blowing final two minutes from the entire
Do you.

Speaker 1 (42:09):
Think on that really quick? You know, just moving forward
in situations where you know a team is down and
has to go the full field, So not necessarily a
field goal, but even if they have a field goal,
to tire to win, to kick it out of bounds
forever our entire life. You kick it out of bounds,
you get the ball out to twenty. So if there's
a minute thirty or left and they have no timeouts,

(42:31):
you're gonna have to hit a couple of plays to
get a close to midfield more than likely. Now, you
kick it out of bounds, you get the ball at
the thirty, they get a ten yard game boom, you're
at the forty. I mean pretty quick. That's I wonder,
and I know there's a risk if you kick it
in that little area if he kicks it out, but
what if you make the tackle Like the twenty two
yard line, that's a big seven eight yard gap. It

(42:53):
wouldn't have mattered in that situation because they got down
the field in like fifteen seconds. But I wonder big picture,
after people watch it, you're like, they're a fifteen yard
gain away from being at midfield.

Speaker 4 (43:05):
Yeah, it's gonna, it's gonna. I think that's gonna increase.
I think that there should be an increased focus on
different strategy there. But the inability to now swib it,
which you know, like the Bills should have done against
the Chiefs, but the inability to swip it late I
think is going to lead to more late comebacks. So yeah,

(43:26):
I think that you have to look at different strategies
there because yeah, you're right, it's like one quick completion,
you're at midfield, and then with the way kickers kick
now for thirty five or thirty nine on the season
above fifty, I don't know if it's like an MLB
conspiracy theory juice balls. We have juice balls. Guys are
making them from sixty with ease. So now you got

(43:47):
to get to the forty to make a fuel goal
if you're down three.

Speaker 1 (43:51):
So if I kick it, if I kick it out
of bounds, they start at the thirty, they only have
to go thirty yards.

Speaker 4 (43:55):
Yep, right, Yeah, it's your one seam rap completion. It's
pretty cool.

Speaker 1 (44:00):
I could get in field goal range if I have
I don't know, twenty three seconds left on the clock,
hit a couple of plays. Yep, it's conceivable.

Speaker 4 (44:08):
Yeah. So I think you'll see more comebacks more game time,
which is cool. Late so I think that you have
to as a when you're kicking off, you have to
look at different strategies and practice those to try and
prevent that good starting field position. But this you know
that the Eagles. So there's a couple of things that

(44:28):
you know. Like so my by low Sell high philosophy
in the NFL that is, that's kind of my overarching
philosophy always has been. Once to bet the Eagles here
at three, I would consider it, but you know I
don't do that blindly. And the Saints offense looks like
a completely different unit. Mentioneda. Penning's even playing well right tackle,

(44:51):
Lucas Patrick to he's somehow playing well at guard.

Speaker 1 (44:55):
I think Kamara looks like an MVP candidate right now.

Speaker 4 (44:59):
Yeah, Eric mc always the highest graded center, Ruiz is
playing well. The OFFENSIVENEO and it all comes out of
the scheme and it's Kubiak, and they didn't do any
They didn't use any play action under the offensive coordinator
last year was a car I could forget his name.
They didn't use any any play action, they use any motion.
This year their top of the league in both cars,

(45:20):
throwing it over fifty percent of the time with play action.
And what is that doing. I mean it's it's Kamara
looks great and then it's just easy throws and the
defenses off bounced. Here's Kamara this year three point three
five yards before contact seventy three percent success rate. Last
year one point eight yards before contact forty seven percent

(45:45):
success rate. I mean those are just how about allowing
pressure within two and a half seconds. They were one
of the worst last year, number one in the league
at four percent of the time. Number three in the
league is sixteen percent on the four times as high
as that, and they're at four percent allowing pressure within
two and hal seconds. So it's all the motion but

(46:06):
play action, and then the offensive line obviously, you know
it looks like you hit on left tackle. Is they're
all playing well, Ken It's sustainable, not this level, but
they they could be significantly better. We knew the defense
is going to be pretty good, and the Eagles offense
just it is much easier to defend when there's no

(46:27):
A J. Brown. It's you know, you have to worry
about Davante and then but you know, if you have
Davante on one end, you have A J. Brown on
the other side, and Barkley with the threat of hurts
his legs, that's very difficult to defend. Now if you're
just worried about DeVante on the outside, I mean, how

(46:49):
many they were? They threw like Britain Covey like seven
times last week?

Speaker 1 (46:53):
What was that? I don't like it was Kellen Moore
thinking he was at Boise Stay. I like Kellen Moore,
but I listen britt Covey cool story. Didn't think he'd
be in the league this long. But I what are
we doing? Like throw gain? Well, I would do anything
else besides, like that is not gonna work, especially against
a physical defense. He ain't get a break a tackle,

(47:15):
He's not faster than anybody. What are we doing?

Speaker 4 (47:17):
Yeah? So yeah, I uh, that's.

Speaker 1 (47:20):
What coaches love guys like that. Bro. When I was
in the league, it was Chad Hall. I mean, they
just they just like they see them air force guy.
I think he's coaching now for somebody who was with
the Bills for a while. They see themselves in that guy.
You know, something like if I, if I would have
had a little more time, I could have been this.
You know, ke Kellen had a brother, Kirby, who was

(47:41):
basically Britain Covey. You know.

Speaker 4 (47:43):
Yeah, that makes sense. So that's what I would be
concerned about. But A three would be it be interesting
Like the Eagles. You know that they'll probably have like
a patent in seven to eight minute drive at some point.

Speaker 1 (47:56):
Uh, just what looks good?

Speaker 4 (47:58):
Yeah, looks really good. Offensive line is good, so they
should be able to run it some here. But you know,
not a game I'm running to bat a ton on
because I just the Eagles definitely have flaws on defense,
No A J. Brown. They're also it's a short week
going on the road of the New Orleans. Places will

(48:19):
be jumping. Now there you start, and the Saints offense
looks and the numbers back it up. Now, it's only
two games. One of them was against the Panthers, but
the game against the Cowboys to go in there and
dominant like that in the offensive line, that looked really good.
It says a lot, so another good data point here
for the Saints and I but I like the Falcons

(48:41):
last week. I like them again this week for what
it's forth. You mentioned their defense. Anything over a field
goal against the Chiefs. The Chiefs just that's over a
field goal favorite. They're not. They're not good. If they're
a field goal favorite or under an underdog, you always
take them homes over a field goal favorite. They're not.
They just play with their food like they'll probably be
down in this game. Find a way to win by
a field goal. They could easily be oh To on

(49:03):
the air. They have issues on offense, not explosive issues
at tackle. You know he's not ready. No Pa Checko,
no Hollywood Brown. It's basically just like one receiver. It's
the kind of the same game plan for the Falcons
this week what they have to defend. And on the
other side, the Chiefs defense still can't defend the run.

(49:23):
They are dead last and rushed success rate fifty eight
percent success rate. I think the next versus the Rams
like fifty five, the only other the only two teams
that are ever fifty. What are the Falcons gonna do?
They're gonna lean on Bijon. They're going to lean on Algier.
That's going to set up the play action easy throws.
Chiefs struggle to defend the run, struggle against play action.

(49:44):
Cousins look better as that game went on. I think
he's finally like shaking off the rust, felt more comfortable
post injury. They have a really good offensive line, so
I think anything over a field goal there is good
on the Falcons. On on Sunday.

Speaker 1 (49:58):
Night, people love shitting on the NFC South, But I
do think those three teams are pretty solid. You know,
the Falcons, I I didn't want, like, you know, the
way the Belichick stuff and they act like he was
the village idiot and the Cousins Pennix thing. But they
do have a lot of good players, and like even

(50:20):
if they had started owing too, like, they're pretty solid.
If Cousins can just kind of right the ship. The
problem for him he looks weird in the Atlanta uniform.
Do you hear with that? Yes, it looks. It looks weird.
So when he was playing shitty, You're like, this is
just not gonna work. The final drive, I mean, that
has to be a big moment for the season. He's
never been able to move, but he really can't move.

(50:42):
So to me, if you can pressure him, it's like golf,
they're just sitting ducks. Now when seven on seven it
turned in on that final drive, he can look like
Joe Montana, like he just he's gonna hit up guys
with ease.

Speaker 4 (50:54):
So Bags is gonna pressure. Bags is gonna bring blaze
breaking pressure.

Speaker 1 (50:59):
But they can't get down. They're not gonna play well
from down. Yeahright, if you know they're dropping back to pass,
you know, if they're down ten points in the second
half against good pass rushers, he'd be in trouble.

Speaker 4 (51:09):
Yeah, But I do think the Thoughts can lean on
their run here like and just run wild and then
set up third and manageables play action because yeah, if
they're down and Cousins is in known passing situations, it's
they have a really good offensive line. But Spags can
draw up exotic pressures as well as anyone, So that's
when it could be problematic. So yes, it's it's imperative

(51:30):
that they get off to a fast start here on
Sunday night.

Speaker 1 (51:34):
You deserve your flowers on the the Packers Indie game,
which I was way wrong because that was that was
the Laflor Picasso slash a Gus Bradley man things are
I know he's down some players, but what an embarrassment?

Speaker 4 (51:52):
Yeah, I mean they didn't make an adjustment. It's insane
to me that the Packers ran for two hundred and
thirty seven yards in the first half on thirty four carries.
That's seven yards per carry. And were the Colts and
the Colts didn't adjust, they were sitting back in their zones.
They didn't bring their safety down an extra defensive linemen.

(52:13):
Were they not expecting the Packers to do this? Were
they expecting the Packers to try and come out and
throw it all over the field with Willis two hundred
thirty seven yards in the first tats the third most
of any team in the first half since two thousand
in the second half. I don't know why it took
till halftime and why this wasn't the plan before the
game they final even without after losing to Fares Buckner,

(52:33):
they brought extra defensive linemen in safety down and the
Packers ran for twenty four yards on nineteen carries in
the second half. Just mind blowing the defensive game plan.
So yeah, the Richardson was just too inaccurate. Packers had
a good game plan, everyone else stepped up some easy

(52:54):
throwers for Willis and they were able to get it done.

Speaker 1 (52:58):
How it keeps you keep shorten the Colts because I've
looked at that Bears line and go that feels like
a little too easy rookie quarterback on the road. It's
still September, so that it's not like Indies three and
ten where the crowd like their crowd's going to be
into it. It's like, is that a spot where Indy
just kind of comes out and wins the game pretty
easily or is it one of those where things get weird.

Speaker 4 (53:20):
That's a tough one because I mean, the Colts defense
is bad and the Bears defense is pretty good. I mean,
the Colts lost their top corner too, the far As
Buckner's now out their best defensive lineman. They have other injuries,
but the you know, the Bears defensive line. The Bears
offensive line is a mass. Caleb's still not there. I

(53:41):
think he really does need keenan Allen back, like just
this is a reliable possession receiver. Will he go? I
don't know. We old Gus Bradley blitz like he hasn't
blitzing a little more times, like you gotta blitz this
Bear team. You gotta bring pressure on the other side,
but also the But the Bears camp run the ball
this year. I mean the Bears averaging I think the

(54:02):
Cults are giving up like five and a half yards
per carry, but the Bear's running backs are averaging like
two yards per carry because their offensive line is such
a messs So movable object meets of resistible force. I
don't I don't know what wins out there. On the
other side, It's gonna come down to, like does Richardson
hit a few deep balls? So there's a high variants.

(54:23):
Colts and they do have a really good offensive line,
so I think that, yeah, I would. I would lean
Colts in the desperation. Like historically, if you bet these
teams that are zero and two as home favorites, they
do very well. My favorite bet of the weekend I
was with Malik Willis last week. I'm against them this week.

(54:45):
I'm going to the Titans again. Even though I've the
most extreme PTSD you could ever imagine on the Titans.
I bet them the first two weeks lost both games.
They arguably won both games They lost both because of
block punts in both games. What is this high school?
They got a hunt block in the first two games,
will levis the most. Speaking of high school high school

(55:07):
s turnovers, you'll ever see one inside the ten where
he just decides to pitch it backwards, and then the
other when he tries to flip it by insane and
to make matters. It's the same exact score, same exact score,
and catching the same exact price of three and a half.
Four lost twenty four to seventeen in both after leading

(55:29):
and covering the whole game. But I did bet them again.
Got out of short term memory in this gig. I
bet them again for reference zero in two teams over
the past ten years playing teams that aren't own to
so at least have one win or sixty five percent
against the spread in Week three, covering by about a
field goal a game. A bunch of other trends that

(55:49):
support this as well. Favorites in this spot about seventy
two percent against the spread seventy five when they're at home.
But I you know I backed Willis last week. I
don't think Love's gonna play. Now. If Love plays, I
still don't mind it, but you'll get a better line.
But I like this anything under three. The Packers the

(56:10):
historically they're conservative with injuries. They already stole a win
without Love. You have the Vikings next week. You just
gave Love a ton of money. I don't know why
you would really rush him back here. So I don't
think he's gonna play. If he does, he's definitely not
gonna be at one hundred percent. But if Willis plays,
which I think is going to be the case, Tennessee

(56:31):
already saw what green Day was trying to do. They're
not gonna be able to just line up and run.
This Tennessee defense is worlds better than the Colts there.
They have good corners, their front is really good with
Sweat and Simmons, They're not gonna be able to I
don't think the Pack's going able to move the ball
at all. So and look, Tennessee knows Willis as well.
He's was in their room and they cut him. So yeah,

(56:54):
I think this is a good by low spot on
the Titans, who easily could be two.

Speaker 1 (57:00):
And oh they've played well. Their defense has been awesome
for the most part.

Speaker 4 (57:04):
Yeah, they've been their defense the profile as well, you
got Sweat and Simmons in the interior. Talking about that
interior pass rush. They added Ernest Jones and linebacker. It's
a huge get. That was the position of need. Yet
veteran safety's got as good of a cornerback group as
you're gonna find in the NFL with Snead a Woozya,
who have been number one corners in recent seasons. And
then McCreary's really good in the slot, so their defense

(57:26):
is really good. I don't know how the Packers moved
the ball. I think Tennessee we had a lean on
the run game a bit. Hopkins also like ramping back
up to full production from his injury. I think he
went from seventeen to thirty snaps last week. Ridley's actually
looked pretty good. And that offense, Yes, just get a
pun off and someone has to just drill into Leves's

(57:48):
head that you don't throw the ball backwards or yeah,
I mean, you just have to avoid that critical mistake.
But they easily could be two and o on the season,
and then things would be really interesting game of inches
in the NFL. It's crazy how much your outlook can change.
Now this game is clo closer to a must win,
and especially in the division with the Texans, whereas you

(58:11):
were two and l, this could have been a huge
home game. By the way, the line probably would have
been over three before any love news broke. So I
think you're getting a little bit of value here with
the Titans, and same thing with the We just thought
of the Falcons getting that last drive monumental for the season.
The Bucks and the Saints are two and L. Division
looks significantly improved, and the Panthers now should have a

(58:33):
pulse because they are going to Dalton and you fall
to zero and two.

Speaker 1 (58:39):
They would have been in trouble with the.

Speaker 4 (58:40):
Chiefs coming up and you know your two games already
behind in division. That was a huge win for the
Falcons to potentially save their season.

Speaker 1 (58:49):
It was massive. I know. Brian Callahan said after a
week one, if we would have punted on every first down,
we would have won. Well, not if your punts get blocked. Yeah,
that's true, that's not the case. Okay, I'm with you
on that. Tennessee. Having bet on them and watched them
much closely, much closer than normal, I've been pretty impressed.

(59:10):
I mean, will Levis any Titans backer or fan. I mean,
he's it's crazy his mistakes before you get out of here.
Some college stuff. We got some big games on paper,

(59:31):
you know, USC Michigan's crazy to think that. Like there's
a conference game Utah on the road against Oklahoma State,
I mean, big, big, big, big twelve playoff implication matchup,
and then like USC Oklahoma making their debut in the SEC,
but at home against Tennessee who I guess you know,

(59:54):
could be I don't know, national champion contender, but definitely
a playoff contender. And who knows, maybe they are a
national championship contender. When when I say those three games,
which one are you most fired up to bet? Because Utah,
we were talking before we hopped on, has had some
line movement, a lot of question mark with their quarterback,
who got slammed in to a bench earlier this season.
When he plays, they're really freaking good. When he doesn't,

(01:00:18):
they look like a Mountain West team.

Speaker 4 (01:00:20):
Yeah, I know that game. I have no idea on
Camerazing injury to tales, oldest time, the injury uncertainty. Who
knows if he's gonna start or not. Whittingham's always very
secretive about those things. The line movement is very bizarre.
Utah's going to sell out to stop Oli Gordon, which
other teams have done. He's not gotten off to a
good start. They're gonna play man on the outside. It's
gonna come down to Alan Bowman hitting those deep shots

(01:00:43):
and then Rising obviously needs to be healthy for Utah's offense,
and if he is, the still golo on the State
defense is very vulnerable. But with all the uncertainty, I
have no idea. By the way, both quarterbacks total age
forty nine in this game, two seventh years. The guys
who have been around forever Michigan, you know, the USC
defense I think is legit. Their staff is good. They

(01:01:04):
upgraded on the back end. It's no more Alex Grinch.
They got a great coordinator and just a great staff
across the board. It's shocking to say with USC, but
their defense is legit. Michigan's going to Alex Orgie. You
gotta keep it on. If Colston Lovelin plays, I don't
think he's gonna play, and he's their like only pass
catching option at tight end. But they're gonna play Orgy

(01:01:26):
Now who can't throw the ball. So I assume they're
gonna go just like they're gonna look like a triple
option team and run RPOs and their defense has to
get stops because their offense is not gonna be able
to catch up. And wink Martindale the DC, I'm not,
he's just is he gonna blitz the entire time again?
If so, the USC is off a bye, they'll be

(01:01:48):
ready for that. So yeah, I don't. I don't like
this Michigan team that running the bet lay five five
and a half. No, not really, but lean to the
under and lean USC the other game. I actually, look,
college football is much like the first month of the season.
It's as hard as it's ever been for me personally,

(01:02:08):
at least because these teams have such drastic turnover. And
it's not like before where a couple of guys here
I can adjust my power rating based on the results.
But and these teams they turnover so much. I mean,
look at Michigan, Michigan national title team to the team
that looks incompetent, and then you know that you have

(01:02:29):
a couple of data points, some of them against FCS teams,
and it's like, who really is this team? So it's
really tough to get a handle on some of these teams.
Oklahoma and Tennessee looks great. They look like they could
be a national title contender. But you know, they played
Kent State, who lost the home to Saint Francis. The
week before, they played Chattanooga and they played the NC
State team in Charlotte. That looked impressive, but NC State

(01:02:52):
almost lost the Western Carolina. You say, okay, this is
the first week. Last week they were they almost lost
the Louisiana Tech at home. They're quarterback got her in
their backup at to come in and lead a comeback.
A Louisiana Tech is bad, bad, bad team, So maybe
that win wasn't as impressive. This will be a really
good data point. Oklahoma hasn't looked great, but they've had
a ton of injuries, so I think they should be

(01:03:15):
getting a couple of receivers back. They basically just had
Dean Berks and nobody else. Their offensive line, they had
to replace all five starters. They've been down to their
fourth string center, rotating guards. They haven't had their right
starting right tackle since the opening week. They got one
of the best centers in the portal and Hickman. I
think he's going to be back this week. The right

(01:03:35):
tackle might be back. Will enable guys to go more
into their natural position. Like their offensive line has been
such a mess. When you any team the country on
your fourth string center, after you're replacing all five starters,
it's going to be a mess. So they have been
able to run the ball, they have been able to
get enough protection, and then there are three of their
starting receivers have been hurt. So the Oklahoma hasn't looked great,
but there's a huge caveat there. Their defense is really good.

(01:03:57):
They could get two of their guys at the cheat
of position back. They could get their top corner back
as well. So they haven't been healthy at all.

Speaker 1 (01:04:03):
I think the in the NFL this would be Obviously,
college lines are bigger just naturally that I mean, is
that fair to say they just feel they get a
little more inflated. Yes, I mean, I like, Look, this
would be an auto bet for Oklahoma at home as
a seven point dog.

Speaker 4 (01:04:17):
Yeah, I took Oklahoma. I took Ocoma plus seven and
a half. He should be able to find a seven
and a half. Of the money is just pouring in
on Tennessee. It'll be the most popular bet of the
weekend for how they looked and how Oklahoma looked. It
was a massive home field. He was talk about home
field avanage. Home field avantage in this game is worth
about four points. Oklahoma does a really good home field
advantage already. But this is the first SEC game for

(01:04:39):
Oklahoma at night against the top ten team and it's
Nico I Malava, all right, I said his name, I'll
just call him Nico.

Speaker 1 (01:04:47):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:04:48):
Yeah, he's been fantastic. What is his first true road game?
You know, he played NC State and in Charlotte, half crowd.
This is a hostile environment. The Oklahoma defense is legit,
and their front is legit, their rundy is legit. It's
one of the best run defenses in the country. That's
everywhere everything comes from. For Tennessee with Samson, it starts
with the run game, their offense, and then everything flows there.

(01:05:09):
So I think Oklahoma will be okay there. You know,
Doesneico make a few key mistakes and I like Oklahoma.
I mean, I can't get to this number even after
adjusting Tennessee. Now, maybe look maybe Tennessee like the Saints,
it's just now a juggernaut that I can't adjust it.
Then I'll look foolish year, but I can't get to
Oklahoma catching seven at the last time they were an

(01:05:30):
underdog at home of more than a field goal was
back in two thousand when they upset Nebraska Number one Nebraska.
I think Oklahoma scored thirty one straight in that game.
They all threw oranges onto the field after the game,
rushed the field, stole the goalposters, pepper spray. I think

(01:05:50):
Stoops even got sprayed during the postgame interview. In that game,
Josh Heipel was the Tennessee coach. He was the quarterback
of Oklahoma. Brent Venables than now head coach, was the
defensive coordinator. Hy people actually got fired at Oklahoma under
stoops alma mater too, So I'm sure he wants this one.

(01:06:13):
But there's a lot of good underlying storylines here. It
should be a great atmosphere. Really looking forward to that game,
I'm hoping and think that Oklahoma should be much healthier
and that offensive line should look much more confident, and
Jackson Ontan has some talent if he can just get
some protection.

Speaker 1 (01:06:27):
Yeah, maybe that you know, I've been critical. I guess
watching Jackson Arnold is just you know, in Oklahoma. I
just have a buddy that works there. But it's understandable
they've been missing this many skill guys. I mean all
their wide receivers have been injured. And he's like Nico,
I mean, a recher freshman. He's young, but you know
in that first game, and I understand his temple. You

(01:06:48):
just you did see like his physical attributes, Like like Nico,
he is really gifted. There's a reason they told Dylan Gabriel,
you're not going to start here anymore. We're gonna go
with the young guy.

Speaker 4 (01:06:59):
Yea.

Speaker 1 (01:06:59):
And I would imagine if Tennessee, if Milton wasn't old
and had another they would have said the same thing, right.
I mean, these two guys are I think in their class.
They're in the same class. Nico was three and Jackson
Arnold was four or something and Arch was one. I mean,
it has a chance to be a really, really good class.
Even the kid more you know, the top five was Arch,

(01:07:23):
these two kids, Dante Moore who's at Oregon that played
at UCLA last year and was kind of a disaster,
and that the one huge bust is the kid that
started at USC Nelson went to boys sitting up, beat
out now, But the other four I wouldn't write off
more by any means he had at Oregon and obviously Arch,
I'll get you out of here. On Arch. You know
Quinn listen, I was. I wouldn't say a detractor, but

(01:07:46):
I didn't quite understand the hype based on watching them
last year. Good player, but like talking about potential number
one overall pick. But then that game at Michigan, I
understand Michigan's down if you just watch him independent of
the opponent, You're like, this guy's really good and he
gets this is kind of weird freak injury, and all
of a sudden Arch comes in. Some of the passes
were like quick screens and stuff and a run that

(01:08:08):
was cool. But I do think this is not your
average backup coming in, and like we could easily transition
back this is this is a little different if he
was if he was Arch middle cough, it'd be easier
to go back to Quinn when he's healthy. But what
happens if let's say Oklahoma wins his game and in
a couple of weeks he's ready to come back, and
it's fucking Oklahoma week. You know, Stark doesn't have to

(01:08:31):
worry it's not like this guy's a freshman. They're both freshmen.
I want to keep them both. This guy's going to
the NFL. Like, how do you think this plays out?

Speaker 4 (01:08:38):
I don't know. It's a great question. Uh, it's gonna
be fascinating to watch, you know if he like if
I think.

Speaker 1 (01:08:47):
You think his debut was a little overhyped.

Speaker 4 (01:08:49):
Yeah, I think so. There was some potential.

Speaker 1 (01:08:53):
He was cool, But I want to see him play.

Speaker 4 (01:08:56):
But yeah, but there's there's so much hype there. It's
gonna be One thing is like you go back to
yours and if he struggles at all, like at any point,
then every series where's manning and like it's it's it
could potentially create a mess for Texas some curiously how
Sark handles it. I'll close out on my take on

(01:09:17):
it is as a better is you want the ugliest
bet on the board? I bet you al Monroe plus
forty five. They're supposed to be one of the worst
teams in the country this year. They actually do look
a little better than I expected. They beat the shit
out of UAV, went up and competed with Arkansas. They
beat them by like twenty four. They're coming off of

(01:09:37):
bye week here, and they have a quarterback. By the way,
it's fun to beat because their quarterback's name is General
Booty and he's a former transfer from Oklahoma. They're gonna
play really slow, they're gonna run the ball a ton,
They're gonna try to shorten the game, which helps when
you're catching forty five points. But one of the reasons
why I haven't even looked to fade Texas is a

(01:09:58):
big favorite. I've backed them against Colorado State is you
had Quinn Yours in the game and Texas is obviously
really good top five teen. Then okay, you build a
big lead and you go to Arch Manning. I mean
it's there's no other team in the country that has
less of a drop to their backup, and he comes

(01:10:21):
in and they just extend the league. Now, no Yours.
You have Arch, and then you're going to do another
freshman who is talented but not on the same level
and as refined as either of those guys yet. Plus,
because Youwers has an injury, you have to be if
you're Sark, you have to be a little more cognizant
of Arch's health. And you know SEC play starts next week,

(01:10:45):
so you might pull him a little sooner or go
a little more conservative than you normally would. So I
think it's a little easier to fade Texas as a
bigger favorite, and Uel Monroe does profile is a pretty good,
enormous underdog because they just are going to run it
and play really slow, which is what you want with

(01:11:06):
these big on rows. You don't want a team coming
out of you're trying to run tempo, increasing the number
of possessions. So that's kind of my take. How it
plays out, I don't know, but it's a fast one
of the most fascinating storylines of this college football season.

Speaker 1 (01:11:17):
Well, you need is like fifty to thirteen and you're
like easily in the clear. Yeah, you know how sick
would it be if there was like a thirty nine
point spread on a Sunday. That's yeah, it's never going
to happen. I mean, it rarely gets.

Speaker 4 (01:11:29):
Well, if they kept breaking, Panthers are maybe a heading there.

Speaker 1 (01:11:34):
Yeah, remember the Dolphins when they were tanking that floor
this year I think got close to twenty. It's like
eighteen and a half nineteen against like some of those
Brady Patriot teams.

Speaker 4 (01:11:42):
But yeah, I think the biggest spread of all time.
I want to say it was a horrid Jaguars team
in twenty thirteen, twenty five, I think it was like
twenty four se No, it was twenty twenty eight. Biggest

(01:12:05):
ever it was, uh, I think it was the Broncos.
And yeah, it was the Jaguars against the Broncos in
twenty thirteen. That was the Manning Broncos, I assume, and
they cover, yeah, they actually let's say that was.

Speaker 1 (01:12:27):
I feel like if you did, if there was anything
remotely that close again, that big of a number, the
money that would flow in on twenty five plus would
be pretty high, don't you think?

Speaker 4 (01:12:39):
Yeah? Close twenty seven Denver one thirty five nineteen. I mean,
and that's an auto about in the NFL for men,
like you're catching four touchdowns and no one runs. You
don't don't run it up in the NFL.

Speaker 1 (01:12:48):
Yeah. I just think how popular betting is now. I
think the amount of money that would flow in on
that huge of a number would be like historic in
twenty twenty four. Like, think how different the way we
talk about gambling, how popular it is, how legal it
is from just that year twenty thirteen, which doesn't when
you say it out loud. Doesn't feel like that long ago.
It's fucking light years.

Speaker 4 (01:13:09):
In time, a different world now.

Speaker 1 (01:13:12):
I don't think you could put a number that high.
I think it would get bet down to like twenty,
don't you.

Speaker 4 (01:13:17):
Yeah, I agree in the NFL that's way too high
the number. Yeah, I mean, it was a perfect storm
of things, Like the Jags looked so so bad, they
were blank. I think they were zero and six. The
Broncos were six and oh, and they were like setting
records with Pyton Manning. And you know it's in Denver,

(01:13:39):
do you know? Do you know?

Speaker 1 (01:13:40):
No?

Speaker 4 (01:13:40):
Do you know? I think Jackson will was starting a
backup quarterback too. Do you know the quarterback was in
that game? I mean, I don't think anyone would know this,
but Chad Henny actually was the starting quarterback.

Speaker 1 (01:13:53):
Which obviously would be an upgrade over Gabbert probably yeah,
I think maybe not maybe time, But yeah, funny game
twenty seven point spread. It was pretty crazy if you
would have said that that at that game. Chad Henney
will play another ten years in the NFL. I mean
just retired last year, right, Yeah, the Chiefs backup, so

(01:14:14):
his career was only heating up. Right around then, he
became the Chiefs backup during the dynasty. I think he's
got three Super Bowl rings.

Speaker 4 (01:14:22):
He had a dream job.

Speaker 1 (01:14:24):
Yeah, it doesn't get any better. Okay, Sucky, Let's let's
keep our eye out for a nice twenty five point
spread in the NFL one day and we will fucking
hammer that thing.

Speaker 4 (01:14:33):
I father, have a good week. I'll see you next week.

Speaker 1 (01:14:38):
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3 & Out - Thursday Night Football Reaction, Rodgers is back, Stuckey joins the podcast

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.css-14f5ked{margin:0;word-break:break-word;display:-webkit-box;-webkit-box-orient:vertical;box-orient:vertical;-webkit-line-clamp:2;overflow:hidden;}3 & Out - Thursday Night Football Reaction, Rodgers is back, Stuckey joins the podcast