January 10, 2020 • 46 mins
Colin says Jimmy Garoppolo was like a tech company looking for seed money and now it's paying off big time for the 49ers. He is starting to wonder if the lack of young weapons in New England is more about Brady's fading skills rather than Belichick's inability to draft receivers. He talks with former offensive lineman Rich Ohrnberger and the Ringer's Kevin Clark about all four divisional round playoff games and which teams are most likely to be upset.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to the Best of Herd podcast. Be
sure to catch us live every weekday from twelve to
three eastern, nine to noon Pacific on Fox Sports Radio
and FS one. Find your local station for The Herd
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is the Best of the Herd with Colin cowher on
Fox Sports Radio. Oh, best show of the week, live
(00:24):
in LA. This is the Herd wherever you may be
and however you may be listening. We're on iHeartRadio, Fox
Sports Radio and f S one. R four picks this
next hour one hour from now, my pick of the
year in the NFL. In one hour, my pick of
the year. Everybody from Will Blackman, Kevin Clarkson gonna stop by.
(00:46):
He's just an absolute riot for the Ringer. NFL writer
Rich Ornberger com on the show. Former patriot comes on
the show today and Joy Taylor is joining me. This
will be my favorite show of the week. We kind
of preview it. Don't preview games a lot on the show. No,
We're kind of talking about all four games today and
a lot of different information coming in. The Browns may
hire a coach in the next several hours. That's happening
(01:09):
as well. Joy, how are you. I'm great. I'm very
excited for this weekends. Yeah, so let's talk. Okay, let
me just talk about Jimmy Garoppolo, Jimmy GQ. Okay, so
this weekend. I think they're as good as anybody in
the NFC. I think they're gonna win the NFC. I
think San Francisco is going to represent the NFC in
the Super Bowl against Kansas City or Baltimore. And we'll
get to those picks in one hour. But I think
they're really, really good. I did like him slightly over
(01:31):
New Orleans. Now the Saints are gone thanks to the Vikings.
Who I think the Niners will beat Jimmy Garoppolo. Now
there are witnesses to this. I said for years when
Garoppolo was backing up Tom Brady, I said, go get him.
What do you need to see? And then with only
twelve touchdown passes and only seven starts in his career,
he got a massive contract. It was one hundred and
(01:53):
thirty seven million, and everybody freaked out and we say, well,
we said he earned it. Well, what do you mean, Well,
let me ask you he's a young man, right, he
shows some elite skills. Right. There's something called seed money.
Do you know what seed money is? Seed money is
(02:14):
when a bunch of young tech people sixteen years old, eighteen, twenty,
twenty one, twenty two, they've got an idea and they
start a business, a tech company, but they don't have
any capital, and so they go to rich people and
they ask for seed money, seed money to make their
company grow, and they ask for a million dollars two
four six eight million dollars. I've been in one of
(02:35):
these meetings one time. Where do they go to college?
What's their plan? Are they good communicators? Because you really
don't know. You have no idea if the company is
going to work, because they don't really have much of
a company, and so you have to judge them on
are they good communicators, what's their temperament? Do they have
some elite schools? Where do they go to college? What
(02:56):
are they providing the market doesn't have? And then big
rich dudes, not me, writing big fat checks. And they
have earned that money. They have earned it through communication
and an idea and verbal skills in their presentation, and
where did they go to school? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo, like
a kid looking for seed money, had gone to the
(03:18):
University of Bill Belichick and was five and oh and
then he got his masters at U see Kyle Shanahan
and was two and oh. So he never lost a start.
I think I'm reversed on that. I think he was
two and over the Patriots five and oh with U
see Kyle Shanahan and a seven to oh. He was
a good communicator, good looking guy who played with a
ton of confidence. He had zip on the ball, and
(03:39):
like the kids starting a tech company, you really didn't know,
but you kind of did know. That's why you write
the check. He absolutely earned it. Folks, we give twelve
to fifteen million dollars a year to quarterbacks who haven't
taken a snap in the NFL. Baker Mayfields made a
boatload of money. Can he even play? So you're gonna
(04:01):
give first round picks thirty percent bust. You're gonna give
them tens of millions of dollars. But Jimmy Garoppolo and
seven starts had never lost a game. The look, the athleticism,
the presentation, the communication skills. He was good when the
camera was on. He was good when the pressure was
on and you're gonna struggle given him money. He had
(04:23):
earned that money. And now, like when you give seed
money to tech companies and they hit, it's stealing because
you only had to give a half million, and now
it's worth two hundred and fifty million dollars, and Garoppolo
now is stealing money. He only makes twenty six million
a year. That is a steal for a number one
seeded quarterback in the NFC, who's gonna play at home
(04:44):
and give you two home playoff games. You'll make half
his salary in two home playoff games at the gate.
You how much money an NFL team makes for a
playoff game at home in San Francisco, What they charge
in Silicon Valley up there in Santa Clara, for Te,
they'll make half his contract these two home games. So
we're always caught up in, oh my god, Jimmy, is
(05:07):
he worth it as he earned it? Young kids who
have tiny little companies, who went to great schools, who
are verbal, who have an idea, who present it to
super rich guys, get checks every single day in this country.
Seventy five percent of them. Those companies dry up, never
(05:28):
make a dollar Jimmy Garoppolo has been uber, He's been Facebook.
Are you kidding me? A number one seed home games
favored in the NFC, The Niners will win this weekend.
He has been worth as we predicted, every single penny,
and Darnwright he earned it. So I want you to
think about this. There are this weekend when you're watching
(05:51):
the games. We all talk about quarterbacks, but five of
the eight playoff teams this weekend have great, impactful cookie
wide receivers. I mean they walk out of college, they
walk into the NFL boom impact, DK Metcalf for Seattle.
How about Deebo Samuel San Francisco as a kid, A J.
Brown at Tennessee, Hollywood Brown with Baltimore, Stefon Diggs, Adam Feeling, Young,
(06:16):
de Hop Will Fuller, Houston, DeVante Adams, Green Bay. These
are kids, They're not that far to college, all sorts.
All these teams have just special guys, and yet New
England can't find one one single wide receiver in a decade.
Nikil Harry this year had one hundred fifty four yards.
(06:42):
That's weird, right, That's a weird blind spot for the
best coach in the history of football and I have
been critical of Bill Belichick, but as you watch the
great receivers this weekend, Kansas City's got one as well
to Tyree Hill and Hardman. When you watch this weekend,
you see all these dynamic receivers. Why is it that
the dynasty, the smartest football coach of our lives, they
(07:04):
haven't gotten one right in a decade. So let's look
at the NFL teams. I always blame Belichick on this,
is it, Brady. Let's look at the NFL teams, the
four to five that we think always tend to draft
wide receivers and develop them really quickly. Pittsburgh, Seattle, Green Bay,
(07:26):
Kansas City in Houston. What do they all have in common?
Big Ben Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Oh, lightbulb.
Quarterbacks that extend plays with their legs, allowing wide receivers
more flexibility in their patterns. A receiver now has four
to five seconds to get open, not one point eight
(07:49):
or two point four. We blame Belichick for all this
receiver stuff, but quarterbacks that extend plays are the franchise
is where all the receivers seem to work. Isn't that funny.
Maybe it's not Belichick, maybe it's Brady, which is why
I've said this is a perfect time for Tom to retire.
(08:12):
Bucky Brooks wrote an article yesterday saying Patriot should let
Tom Brady walk in it. He points to a very
intriguing stat Not only is Brady incapable of attacking the
entire field as a passer, but on throws what they
call out wide throws, outside, big throws, speed receivers, he's
(08:34):
thirty second of thirty two qualified candidates. Folks, Nikhil Harry
is not a bust. He can play. He is not
a bust. But receivers are the most NBA like athletes.
They're tall, they're fast, they're vertical, they're special, they break
the huddle by themselves. They're ISOAX. And in Tom's rigid,
(08:56):
tiny system, you're asking in NBA player to not jump high,
not run fast, get open, quickly catch the ball. In
a system, there is no excuse the dynasty's dying because
they can't elevate an increasingly important position wide receiver. And
(09:18):
Tom can do it. And I love Tom, but it's time.
It's time to wrap a ball on it. Josh McDaniel's
probably getting that Cleveland job, losing all sorts of coaches.
It's funny when you watch the playoffs this weekend. Watch
how many great young receivers that walk into this league
and make massive impacts. They all have one thing in common.
(09:42):
They play with a ad libbing quarterback, a quarterback that
can extend plays, give a receiver opportunities to get open.
Let the most NBA position in the NFL. Be vertical,
be fast, be creative, be expressive. That is just no,
no longer possible with TV twelve, and you know I
(10:03):
love him. Be sure to catch live editions of The
Herd weekdayson noon Easter nine am Pacific. So I want
to say this, we're talking a lot about the hiring practices.
It looks like Josh McDaniels is the leader in the
clubhouse to get the Cleveland job. It'll be combustible. I'll
say that. Between Baker's personality, Jimmy Haslam's personality, and Josh
McDaniel's personality, that's a lot of combustible. I think it's
better than Freddy Kitchens. But there's a lot of stuff
(10:25):
about Josh McDaniel that's very Lane Kiffin iq way up here,
EQ a little lower. It's combustible, fistfights in the film room. Whatever.
So well, we'll get to that later in the show,
because it could happen by the end of the show.
But there's a lot of talk about some of the
NFL's hiring retreads and its retread stuff. You gotta remember,
any job that's high compensation and high pressure has big turnover.
(10:49):
In America, the turnover rate for the average American job
is three and a half percent. In tech, it's thirteen.
For CEO's last year, it was seventeen and a half percent.
A lot of pressure. For NFL coaches, it's over twenty percent.
(11:10):
This was a year where they only fired what five guys.
Jacksonville kept theirs, Atlanta kept theirs. In most years, you're
replacing seven coaches. This year, too survived the cut. Dan
Quinn was going to get fired by week nine. They
got hot in Atlanta, and Doug Morone survived, mostly because
Tom Coughlin took all the heat and so they're bringing
(11:31):
him back. But those guys were literally at that decision
was made in a room over bourbon rocks, and somebody said, ah,
let's keep both those guys. Five guys are out. So remember,
retreads are the ones winning the Super Bowl. Belichick got fired,
Pete Carroll twice of the last twenty three Super Bowls,
(11:52):
fifteen had been won by retreads. Gary Koopiak, Mike Shanahan,
Tom Coughlin, Dick Vermeil, Belichick, Dungee, Pete Carroll, and John
Gruden wasn't fired, but he was traded to Tampa in
a high compensation job with high expectations, with an absurd turnover. Right,
(12:13):
you're going to give people second chances. CEOs get second chances.
Head coaches get second chances. I've never been somebody bothered
by people getting fired. Oprah got fired. She's sort of
my idol in this business. Howard Stern got fired, Jerry
Seinfeld got fired, Mark Cuban got fired. JK Rowling got fired.
Walt Disney got fired. Folks, talented people are outspoken. Outspoken
(12:37):
people see the world differently, and they're not willing to
have lesser talented people above them pushing down. Walt Disney's like,
I'm out, Mark Cuban, I'm out, Howard Stern, I'm out,
Jerry seinfeldt Oprah, I'm out, I'm out. JK Rowling, I'm out.
Walt Disney. I'm out. So when you're fighting, the fire
doesn't bother me. Firing usually means you have a strong
(12:58):
point of view, kind of willful and aspirational, and you
hit a ceiling or a boss that didn't get you.
I'm not saying something. Jim Schwartz I wouldn't hire again.
It's nothing against him. He went to Georgetown. Smart guy.
It's not a guy i'd give a second chance to.
Steve wilkeson Arizona got one year. I'd give him a
second chance. All my sources think Steve Wilkes, who was
(13:21):
the Browns defensive coordinator last year, they like him. They
like him a lot, maybe a little over his skis.
Cliff Kingsbury bombs. Probably not going to give him a
second one. He's a college guy without a winning record there.
But you wouldn't hire Mike Tomlin if the Rooney's moved
off him. Really, you wouldn't hire Mike Tomas You know,
(13:42):
the year and a half ago, John Harball was in
trouble until Lamar Jackson happened. You wouldn't. You wouldn't hire
John Harball. By the way, Andy Reid got fired. You
don't think Kansas City should have hired him. We're making
too much. As Mike McCarthy gets the job in Dallas,
(14:03):
Mike McCarthy got to a Super Bowl and one he
get winning his division. By the way, Green Bay never
bought great defensive players. He mostly did it with average
to below average defenses. It's okay. It's okay to get
fired and in high compensation jobs tech CEO's football coaches.
(14:26):
Just because you get fired doesn't mean you can't improve
and you can't get second opportunities. What's up, everybody? John
Middlecoff Three and Out Podcast. That's me. That's the show
I used to scout in the NFL. Now I talk
about football for a living. You can find me on
Colin Coward's podcast network. Coming up on this show, Joe
Judge to the Giants, Matt Rule to the Panthers, who's
(14:47):
gonna end up in Cleveland? Talk about all the hirings,
and you know I'm diving deep into all the playoff
games this weekend Again, John Middlecoff, that's me. Go subscribe
Three and Out podcast. Former NFL offensive lineman, great radio
TV guy down in San Diego, former Patriot We Love
and rich Orn Burger joining us here on the herd
have not had him on and like a month, and
we are we need some rich to be enriched. All right,
(15:10):
let's start with this. You know. I started the show
talking about how young kids who are seventeen to twenty
seven year old in Silicon Valley and all over the
country are looking for seed money and they go to
good schools and then they they have a little business,
but they don't have any scratch, and big investors give
a millions of dollars, and I think they've earned it.
(15:32):
They've earned it by the presentation, by the idea, by
their ability to communicate as they presented. Jimmy Garoppolo similarly,
he went to a good school, University of Belichick. Then
he went to UC Shanahan. He was seven and oh
he was very verbal, good communicator. So when he got
his contract, everybody freaked out. My takeaway was no, no, no,
this is what we do in America. Young people show
(15:53):
us just enough and we put our arms around him
and we invest in him. So let's go back. You
were a patriot, Yeah, you're pro Garoppolo, absolutely. Why well,
you know, so we didn't overlap there, but a lot
of the guys who Yeah, a lot of the guys
who I played in New England with I kept in
touch with him, Like, so, how about this Jimmy g guy.
(16:13):
I keep hearing about him, you know, backing up Tom
for years. Yeah, everybody said that it was just Tom Junior.
I mean, like, this guy is as good as Tom Brady.
I mean, legitimately heard many times as good as Tom Brady.
He's just a little bit more careless with the football
I practice, but even the way they speak, the way
they command the huddle, he learns a lot, he absorbs things.
(16:35):
He's just smart as a whip and can make all
the throws and has better athleticism. So the guys who
were waiting to see when this sort of change of
hands was going to take place in New England were
really comfortable with the idea that Garoppolo was going to
be the next And I mean he's showing that in
a lot of cases in San Francisco, and that's a
new offense he had to learn. But these guys automatically
(16:59):
started just following his lead. I mean from day one,
from start one, you could see it. That's what they
invested in a field general, and they're gonna have him
for the next ten years at least. Yeah, I want
to talk about there's ways to retire. I think John
Elway MVP Super Bowl, Seacrest out, Derek Jeter gets hits
his final couple at bats, it's perfect. Then there's Muhammad
(17:20):
Ali fighting Larry Holmes for a check and it's just
bad for everybody, including Alid the sport. Larry Holmes, Tom
Brady to me, wrap a bow on it. It's perfect.
The band is breaking up. Josh McDaniels is leaving. He
cannot make now quote the wide side of the field
throws up, the field throws There's a rigidity to his
(17:43):
play that's very hard for young receivers Nikil Harry Jacobe
Myers to really integrate themselves into the system. I can
love Tom, but I'm old enough. I've seen boxers fight
one too many fights and quarterbacks take one too many hit.
Where do you land on Brady retiring? You know, the
best movies that I leave the theater are the ones
that leave you wanting a little bit more. You know.
(18:05):
The ones that I dislike are the ones where I
walk out and I go That was a great movie,
but it was a half hour too long. Yeah, and
that's where we're getting close to with Tom Brady. Now.
He was my quarterback when I was in New England.
I love the way he plays, I love the leader
he is, and I think he can still do it.
But because you still can doesn't mean you should. I mean,
just because you have more film in the can doesn't
(18:27):
mean we need to see it. Leave it on the
editing room floor. Some of the best movies have the
best editors attached to him, and it's for that reason. Look,
I don't remember far Of as a Viking, even though
he's a pro bowler there, remember him as a packer.
I mean, you could say what you want about Montana
winning a playoff game with the Chiefs, but I remember
him as a Niner. I'll never think of Tom Brady
(18:48):
as anything other than a Patriot great. And I think
it's okay to say I've did everything I need to do,
and I did in one jersey, shake Bob Craft's hand,
and right off into the sunset. Even if you're last
plays a pick six. There are a lot of unhappy
endings in football. Go on and run your TV twelve
fortunes and enjoy retirement. You know, go fishing, work part time,
(19:09):
at a hardware store, whatever you're gonna do. I think
he'll be at home depot wearing an apron very soon
before we get to the games, because you've got strong
feelings on all of them. I do believe in I
just said this, high compensation, high pressure jobs. Tech CEOs
have a high turnover rate. The national averages three and
a half techs thirteen CEOs was seventeen percent last year.
(19:31):
NFL head coaches over twenty this year, we had five
lose their job, Dan Quinn and Doug Marone. Somehow there
was a life preserver throne to pull him into the
boat at the very last seconds, or it would have
been seven, which is a quarter of the league. Josh McDaniels,
I do think I would give him another job. I'm
(19:51):
just not sure at Cleveland with an impulsive owner and
an impulsive quarterback is the right job. I'd like more stability.
What do you make of Josh McDaniels and the Browns,
Because that's the leader in the clubhouse and we could
have an announcement tomorrow morning or today. I think it
could work, and I'll tell you why, because second chances,
(20:13):
even though we at first you know at first glance
when he left Denver and there was shame around, you know,
his first attempt at being a head coach. It doesn't
mean that it can't work the next time. In fact,
the best coaches, the best players learned the best from
their mistakes. I can learn as good from a good
example as I came from a battle. I think bad
examples are easier to I think Joy and I have
(20:34):
talked about this. My shortest stay in television, I learned
the most, and that was in Tampa. I learned what
not to do exactly thats all the time. And so
from a personnel standpoint, from the way he controlled that team,
I mean, there are some things that I'm sure he
walks away going. Boy, if I had another opportunity, that
would go completely differently and it might go better. And
I also think that the Cleveland Browns need an offensive
(20:55):
minded head coach. They need somebody who's gonna lock arms
with Baker and it's going to be there with him
for the maining time as a Brown. I think that
could be Josh McDaniels and they're gonna be linked in
this too. You have to, yeah, you have to do
it for Baker. He's already had three head coaches. I
mean you fired his first when he had an interim,
and he's onto the next, and you have to have
(21:16):
some consistency otherwise this situation could turn into what was
the forty nine Ers situation with Alex Smith, who turns
out is a pretty good quarterback when he's in a
consistent setting, like he became when he was chief with
Andy Reid. So I think this marriage could work now.
Discord with the Browns organization. It's all about fit. Though.
(21:37):
Things could look a lot better for the Browns like
they did for the Patriots, who are a laughing stock
for years before Kraft bought the team and Belichick was
their consistency can really heal things. By the way, I tired,
I'm getting tired of this narrative. USA today did it today?
It's like, people, stop. Lamar Jackson got drafted in the
first round. Okay, let's stop the sympathy to it. Baltimore
(22:00):
passed in him in their first pick, allowed Cincinnati shot
at him. Nobody knew it was going to be this
good with Bobby Petrino never completed sixty percent throws in college.
When you're a unique talent, you're harder to evaluate dirt.
Navitski was seven to one and didn't like playing in
the post. He went ninth YEA. Easily the best player
in the draft, Steph Curry shot the ball from thirty
(22:22):
three feet. His range was so unique. People are right,
you can't do that in the pro basketball now. If
you don't shoot at three, you're a bum. So you
look at Lamar. Do you know of all the quarterbacks
playing in the playoffs this weekend? This is how hard
it is to evaluate this position. The highest draft pick
is Ryan Tanning. Now look at this is the screen.
(22:46):
Ryan went eighth. By the way, two number two picks
RG three and Marcus Mariota are busts and backup this weekend,
this position is Johnny Unitis ninth round, Bart Star seventeenth,
the Goat Brady sixth. It's hard. So here's my thing
with Lamar. Let's enjoy it. He went first round. It's
(23:07):
so much fun to watch. I mean, I gotta be
honest with you. I called him a project, so I
kind of. I mean, I didn't wif but I didn't
see this, did you? No? No, absolutely not. I didn't
think the game would transfer and it doesn't have as
much to do with his unique skill set. More that,
did you really feel an offensive coordinator would be particularly
amenable to changing their offense completely to match what he
(23:29):
did while he was at Louisville. No, this is a
very rigid league. You you're up against most offensive coordinators
who want to amend players skill sets to their offense.
There's an ego involved there. I'm gonna find the right
guy and he's gonna champion my ship. That's right. Meanwhile,
what's taking place in Baltimore is beautiful. This is what
(23:52):
we should always do. Take the best ingredients and say, okay,
what is this rude, biggest saying to me, what is
this urn up all about? And let me make the
best STU possible as a supposed to saying, let me
buy the pot first, right, No, buy the best ingredients
and then make your stupe. And that's what the Baltimore
Ravens did. And by the way, I mean, really the
(24:13):
heartbreak around where he was drafted and how it works out,
I mean, that's the guy he replaced. That's literally what
happened with Joe Flacco, sort of an undervalued guy out
of Delaware transferred in college. Exactly. You know, you had
a couple of guys ahead of him on the depth
chart to start that training camp. He won the job,
He won the Hearts of Baltimore, he won them a
super Bowl. We're seeing a very similar trajectory with Lamar Jack.
(24:35):
Why do we love the Joe Burrows story where he
was sort of cast aside at Ohio State? Don't we
love the comeback story? Why don't we love that people
passed on Lamar and he's shoving it you know where.
That's what I love. The Dak Prescott story. I love
these stories. Drew Brees, everybody passed, that's what That's part
(24:57):
of the Drew Brows a little short, went to Purdue.
He didn't have a great arm. For some reason, we
can't enjoy the Lamar story. We're mad about it. I
don't understand why. Well, it isn't it? Also, this is
life like in a lot of ways, it's the ones
we didn't see coming right. I mean, you can you
can say, like, you know whatever, you can say. I
(25:18):
scouted this position. I scoured every moment and I found
the right guy. And a lot of times, I mean
that doesn't work out. It's the guy who's been on
your roster along it's the it's the rom com that
we go and see. It's like, well, it wasn't the
handsome guy who was standing there with the broad shoulders.
It was kind of his geeky do we be friend
who ended up getting the girl. That's how would always go. Half.
(25:38):
The NFL is undrafted, thee the NBA is not. You
can buy the seventh pick of the NBA draft. Historically,
you run out of Kobe's I mean you know, I
mean you get to about like there's a number in
the NBA draft, it's like twelve or thirteen, and you
run out of stars. They are all exceptions after that.
Let's break down the games. Let's get to it. Minnesota,
San Francisco. I could argue two of the top three
(25:58):
rosters in the National Football League. What say you? They
are built almost identically. I mean, they really are really strong, physical,
aggressive defense. Is a run game that really scares you
in a lot of ways. Both teams want to run
the football. They want to use their quarterback as a compliment.
They don't want to highlight Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco
(26:19):
the same way. They don't want to do that to
cousins in Minnesota, you know quarterback Raiding Garoppolo's twelve Cousins thirteen. Yeah,
they're a lot closer than you think. I like Garoppolo more,
but they're similar. Throw another guy into that. Aaron Rodgers
is right there and we'll get to that game in
a second. But Aaron Rodgers, another guy's being used as
a compliment right now. But back to Vikings San Francisco.
When you think about these two teams, what it's gonna
(26:41):
be is who wins the war of attrition. It's gonna
set up a lot like the Seattle forty nine er battle.
It's going to be great defense, running the air out
of the ball and not putting Kirk Cousins into a
situation where he has to do it all. He won
that game in ot against the Saints. Yeah, it's the
first time and maybe the only time we've ever seen
him do that in a real big moment. Don't make
(27:03):
it about him. I think this game comes down to
Mike Zimmer's defense against Garoppolo and can he decode what's happening.
Because Mike Zimmer did a fantastic job disguising coverages, getting
aggressive in the blitz package against the New Orleans Saints.
He kept them guessing, he kept Drew Breeze off balance.
They never got into a rhythm, never got into a rhythm,
(27:23):
and that's rare to see in New Orleans. So I
think if the Vikings do that against the San Francisco
forty nine ers to have a chance. But I really
feel like the motion's gonna run out. I think the
Niners win this game. It's very difficult to have a
win like you had in New Orleans and come back
and turn around as a locker room and say, and
we're gonna do it again, all right? Coming up next
(27:46):
Titans Ravens. Similarly, this is why I like the Ravens.
Tennessee may that may have been the biggest music city
winning a decade. It Foxborough, Belichick, Dynasty, Brady. Let's do
it again, Fellas against a significantly better team I think
in Baltimore. But you think it's got potential for an
upset Oh man, you know people are probably gonna be
(28:06):
upset with this one. But I think the road ends
for Lamar Jackson. Yeah. And the reason why is because
the Tennessee Titans, they are just bad dudes. They want
to bring a level of violence to the field. That
we really haven't seen since the two thousand Ravens. They
have a nasty defense. They have a defense who's gonna
come up line against you and say, look, we're just
(28:28):
gonna pound you. We're gonna pound you. Now, if they
can make open field tackles against Lamar Jackson, good on them.
I don't think that's going to be the game plan though.
I think they're going to blitz the dog out of
the Ravens. They're gonna get to the mesh point in
the backfield. The only place Lamar Jackson is vulnerable is
in the backfield, whether that be in the passing game
or the run game. So in the passing game, for
(28:50):
obvious reasons, we all see what a pass rush can
do to a young quarterback. But in the run game,
because everything's deception, everything who has the football get to
them and you're gonna find out real quick because a
quarterback doesn't want to get hit, especially when their hands
are in the chest of their running back. So I
think if the Titans come out fast, and if you
win that toss, you take that ball. Oh, you do
(29:10):
not defer, You do not defer. You take that ball,
and you sit on the ball, you run the air
out of that ball and you don't give it back
for seven minutes out of clip. You sort of devenomize
this Raven's offense by getting blitz heavy against them. And
then you sit to Lamar Jackson. Can you beat us
one on one down the field? And there's some good
matchups there, you know, Brown downfield. It scares you, but
(29:32):
you have to roll the dice if you're gonna beat
a juggernaut like Baltimore, and I think they can. Texans
chiefs Kansas City's defense Andy read off a bye love
that he's very good. I get that the Texans to
me were out gained and trailed more than they led
this year. But again, Deshaun's the human life preserver, so
he saves the day with a flag football play. I
(29:54):
like Kansas City here, What say you you want to
talk about lacking rhythm? This Houston Texans offense is so herky,
jerky and unpredictable. There's no rhythm to it whatsoever. You know,
DeShawn Watson with the Texans this year reminds me of
Aaron Rodgers with Mike McCarthy. Go save the day, Aaron,
our game plan, Aaron Rodgers onto won't too read a
great and that's what it is with DeShawn Watson. It's
(30:16):
backyard football. This guy scrambles, he improvises, he makes plays.
He's a lynchpin to their success in the run game.
Their offensive line isn't very good in the right side
of it. Yeah, so you really have to depend on
just Shaun Watson to win this game for you, and
I don't think they will because Andy Reid, like you mentioned,
after a buye you know what that's good for About
a ten point lead to start a game. Yeah, I
really think his first fifteen plays are going to dissect
(30:40):
disect what the Texans liabilities are defensively, and you're going
to see a Chiefs team out in with a lead
early in this game. With Mahomes, who's the future of
the quarterback position, arrowhead going nuts, the Texans playing on
a tilted field all game long. This is a Chiefs
win and it may be the biggest margin of victory
we see this weekend. Finally, Packers at home against Green Bay.
(31:03):
I think the numbers about right Seattle last week. Now
they're down to their fourth and fifth string running back.
They averaged they just couldn't run the ball so you're
asking a very depleted Seattle team that can win one
way save us Russell. So I'd probably go Green Bay.
But as I've said many times, I don't love the
Packers this year. This game comes down to waron Jones,
(31:26):
not Rogers. They have to run the football again, Like
I was talking about the San Francis, they are good
against the run. But I will say this the Packers
really they played against a lot of teams great against
the run, and they've moved the football on them. This
is this is going to be another one of those games.
Think about how the Bills looked against the Houston Texans.
(31:46):
This could be low scoring, bad weather game, and I
think that actually favors the Packers. I understand a lot
of people are used to looking at the Green Bay
Packers as this highlight offense. They're not anymore. They're not.
They're really not. You know, it's funny Aaron Rodgers completion
percentage over the last two months, his passer rating, it's
remarkably average. And that's not a shot at him. He's
(32:08):
I mean, it's okay. He's had two collar bones. He's
not quite as mobile. Probably doesn't want to get hit.
The older you get quarterbacks. You know, Brady, we saw
this year no interest getting hit Eli, no interest. I'm
with you. I think Green Bay wins kind of ugly.
He's great. Aaron Rodgers is great, and I say that
about him with deference to how things fell apart between
(32:31):
him and McCarthy, because of what he's been able to
do with a new coach. He's really resigned himself to say,
it's your offense, I'll run it. And they've done a
really nice job. And he's one of the most devastating
deep pass throwers in this league. So if they lean
on their run game against the depleted Seattle team because
their offense can't produce, and if they get an early
lead and it's Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith off the
(32:54):
edge against Russell Wilson with a terrible pass blocking offensive line,
this is going to be one of those games where
we see the Packers in control early and they'll lean
on him the rest of the game. It isn't going
to be a sexy win. It's not going to be
one of these box office games where they're trading blows
all the way down the field. But it's gonna be
a Packers win. In though advance. Yeah, Seattle games all
(33:15):
kind of look the same, like the ones they win
and lose. You know, you just you look up and
you're like, oh, it's twenty three twenty and they're seven
to go. That's kind of how Seattle wins. They don't
have the firepower to blow you away, but they have
the player that can win a game where they're outplayed.
And that's Seattle. Okay. Rich arm Burger was absolutely magic today.
One more Herd. The Herd streams twenty four hours a day,
(33:36):
seven days a week within the iHeart Radio app Search
Herd to listen live or on demand whenever you'd like.
Former Wall Street Journal writer then Bill Simmons got smart,
hired him at the Ringer Kevin Clark newly married and everything.
Oh's funny. Oh was smart. It is great to see
you on a Friday. This is one of the great
weekends of the year. Four great NFL games, college Football
National Championship on your Monday. It is great to have
(33:58):
you here. So, you know, we were talking earlier that
my goofy take was that when young tech kids eighteen
to twenty eight are looking for seed money and they
go in and they present it and you're kind of
how do they communicate? Where do they go to college?
Do they have a plan? Are they providing something I
don't have. We give him eighteen million dollars and we think, well,
they earned it. Jimmy Garoppolo was seven to oh at
(34:19):
the University of Belichick and you see Kyle Shanahan and
then everybody's like, whoa twenty six million? And I'm like, no,
I mean, we give money to Baker Mayfield and he's
never played outside of the Big twelve. I didn't have
a problem with the Garoppolo contract, did you? Were you
a little cynical initially when they gave him twenty six
large I understand why they do it. They gave him
(34:40):
forty one million in cash last year they had the
cap room, and so now that the cap hits are
okay the rest of the time, this is the cost
of doing business in the NFL. I mean, you can
keep trying to find the guy, or you can get
the guy and you can commit to him. That's it.
I mean, that's what quarterbacks cost after the first four years.
And so I wasn't offended by the contract. I think
that Jimmy Garoppolo with Kyle Shanahan and with George Kittle
(35:02):
and with Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders. That is an
elite production quarterback. Yeah, this isn't a contest who can
make it the hardest. It's a contest to win the
Super Bowl. And you can win the Super Bowl. We
can see that with Jimmy Garoppolo. They're the one seed
I through the best team in the NFC. And so
if they can build a team. And by the way,
everybody makes excuses about paying quarterbacks and then not being
(35:23):
able to build a team, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan
have shown you can pay a quarterback, you can build
an infrastructure around them, you can draft well, and you
can build a really good team. So I'm not offended
by the contract because they clearly knew how to make
it work. By the way, I can love the way
John Elway retires, and I can love the athlete Muhammad
Ali and hate that he fought Larry Holmes. There are
(35:44):
I like a neat tidy present, Rappa Bow, Tony Gonzalez,
I can still play Derek Jeter. I'm out, I do
think with the band breaking up in New England, Brian Flores,
Dante Scarneki is getting older. Josh McDaniels may take the
Cleveland job. I do think it's time. I probably in
the minority. Where do you land on Brady in retirement. Well,
(36:07):
I think that it's bigger than just Brady, because you
look at the core. Okay, Devin mccordy's a free agent.
Guys like Matthew Slater who helped run that locker room there,
they're free agents, and so I think there's a bigger
changing of the guard than even we think about. I
think Brady should come back for one more year. He
obviously wants to. I think that it's funny. There's been
a lot of studies done a couple of last couple
of weeks about how quarterbacks age and essentially they fall
(36:29):
off a cliff. There's not a decline. Pro Football Focus
had had a great piece about this week. There's not
a decline. There's a cliff, and I don't think we've
seen that cliff yet with Tom Brady, and I think
he kind of wants to see how far he can
draw it out. I think he said in the past
he wants to play to forty six. That's based on
some real baseball science. Tom house. Some of those guys
you've coached him, they think, Okay, Nolan Ryan was able
to have the mechanics until he was forty six. Tom
(36:52):
Brady could too. I think they want to see how
long this TB twelve method can go, how long he
can do as avocado ice cream and stay healthy. I
think there's some there's a challenge to this now, unlike
anything he's ever facing his career, and I think he
likes that kind of challenge. Hey, can I be productive
at forty three or even forty four? Kevin Clark at
(37:12):
the Ringer. So Josh McDaniels feels like to me, there's
a rock star quality to him. You know I say
this so certain franchises. I call him low self low
self esteem sports franchises. Cleveland's one of these, the Mets
for years, the Jets. When you play in the shadow
of somebody, you know, Steelers down the road, Ohio State football,
here's Cleveland and they you know, they reach, They reach
(37:35):
on quarterbacks, they reach on coaches. They look for the
Baker Mayfield. They said, we like his leadership. Uh, you
know they do this, they reach and Josh McDaniels has
got a lot of Hubris. There's some Lane Kiffin high
IQ lower EQ. I think he's gonna be the guy
if he is. I know Denver was ugly. Could it
work at this point? You take the Cleveland job for
(37:57):
one reason, that's to work one year in the hate
out for four years because of that. I'd like to
put my hat in the ring there. I'd love to
work one year and get paid out for that's amazing,
take a couple of years off, watch a bunch of movies.
So I think that that's that's what's happening. And the
Browns have doomed themselves to failure by not knowing what
they want. They've had five coaches and five gms. They've
(38:20):
their longest tenured coach of this decade is Hugh Jackson,
which is just astounding. And if you're Josh McDaniels, how
can you go into Cleveland and think that this is
going to be any different? How do you not know
that in a year Jimmy Haslim's not going to say, hey,
wait a second, we don't like this either, And all
of a sudden they're hiring their seventh coach and their
seventh GM. I mean, they the only way to guarantee
(38:41):
failures to keep starting over after a year. It takes
six to eight months to even settle in in the
NFL into a new job and learn who the everybody's
names and all that stuff. And they don't have a
great GM. They don't have another issue. And I'm you know,
I'm not in the Baker like everybody else. But I
think it's fair to say he's impulsive. Can you coach
(39:01):
him out of that? I think you can, But I
think you need a time and an infrastructure, and you
need This isn't like Dallas where it's a quick fix.
This is a long term culture fix. This might take
two full years just to get the bad juju out
of the building, Okay, And so I think that with
Baker specifically, Listen, you can't have that kind of talent
(39:24):
he showed at the end of twenty eighteen without being
just a naturally good passer, and that can be brought
out of him again. Yeah, I still believe, against all
evidence in twenty nineteen, that Baker Mayfield can be a
good NFL quarterback because Josh Channel is the higher I'm
not sure. Board I do know is if Jimmy haslim
in twelve months decide to start over again. They're going
to ruin not only his career, but everybody else on
(39:44):
that roster's career, and they're gonna do him their franchise again.
For the record, I think Baker will be much better
next year. If Jim Schwartz I don't like, I think
then Baker's career is done. But if they get Josh,
I do think he reboots. He's okay. I never thought
he was Drew Brees, but I do think he's a
franchise quarterback. All right, Let's go the games. Kevin Clark
the ringer joining US Vikings and the Niners. A lot
(40:05):
of similarities. Pass rushers, all three levels of defense. They
like run games. I go Niners. You say what I say?
Niners as well. I think the best team in the NFC.
I think there's a lot that cancels out in this game.
The Vikings are better than any team at covering the
tight end. George Kittle is the best tight end in football.
The Niners are the best take away the deep pass.
(40:26):
Kirk Cousins a very good deep ball passer. So I
think that just comes down to a couple of different
little things, and that would be roster talent, coaching and quarterback.
And I would say, again, Garoppolo with Kyle Shanahan is
a better quarterback than Kirk Cousins in that infrastruction with
that talent around him. So I'm going to give the
nod to the Niners because of that. I think it
might be close, but I would say maybe ten points.
(40:48):
I think the Niners are really good. Okay, I like
the Ravens to blow out the Titans. Rich Orenberger, who's
very bright, does not calling the upset. How do you
see it? I think it's Ravens too. I think it's
similar to the Niners. They just they're the best team
in their conference and then they're going to win. I
think that Lamar Jackson is you know, there's so many
theories on how to beat Lamar Jackson and no one
(41:08):
has really done it in any meaningful way. The Chargers
did it when he was basically a different player last
with seven defensive backs. I had a conversation with the
guy named Jerome Baker, who plays a linebacker for the
Dolphins a couple weeks ago, and he said that the
problem with Lamar is if you're too slow, he'll just
run right past you. But if you're too fast. He
knows exactly how to use that against you, and he
knows exactly how to play the angles and just let
(41:30):
you overrun him. And that's the problem with Lamar is
if you're too fast or too slow, you will fail.
And that is the problem that every defense has. Either
they're fast and physical and they can't touch him, or
they're too fast and they overrun him, and they overthink
this thing. He crosses the line of scrimmage at thirteen
miles per hour when he runs, which is I drove
drove east to west and Los Angeles. I did not
(41:51):
go thirteen miles per hour at any point during that drive.
And Lamar Jackson that's his average. I just don't know
how an NFL defense reckons with that. And then you
add in the he's the third best passer by passer rating.
I mean it is going to take something very very special.
I like the Titans. I like Derrick Henry Adi Brown,
all the stuff they've done. I think you add in
on the defense that the Ravens blitzing and Tannehill's PROPENSI
(42:12):
to fall down over his career. I don't see this
particularly encouraging for the Titans. All right, Andy Reidoff. A
bye is remarkable. They get one here against the Houston
team that was out gained and trailed more than lad.
I can't if I was a sports gambler, I just
would not bet Texans games. Ever, I think they're impossible
to figure out. They're a flag football team with four
(42:34):
minutes to go with the best flag football quarterback in
the league. Kansas City feels like a significantly better team.
And by the way, Kevin, their defense has been terrific
from about last six weeks. Yeah, Kansas City's all we
wanted last January. All anybody talked about in the media
was what the defense gets a little bit better? He
just gets a little bit better. They fire Bob Sutton, Well,
(42:54):
that happened. In fact, they've gotten a lot better over
the past month. They shut down the Patriots, although that
ended up not being as bigger than accomplishment as we thought.
But then they hold the drew lock to three points
mit biscuity of three points. They have been salad Tron
Matthews playing really well, and so I think that generally
this is the team we wanted to see last January.
The only problem is Mahomes is not putting up the
numbers he put up last year, but he's basically the
(43:16):
same guy. I feel like we've all collectively forgotten. Think
the Beatles movie yesterday, right, we all woke up, and
I feel like I'm the only person who remembers how
good Patrick Mahomes just we're not talking about I'm talking
about Lamar Jackson. And I've said this before. I like Lamar,
but if you said, next ten years, who's the better
quarterback like Mahomes going to run the league? Yeah, He's
an unbelievable, all time transformational talent without a doubt. And
(43:37):
for all the things Lamar does, the hardest thing to
defend in the history of the NFL is a perfectly
thrown pass. Patrick Mahomes throws perfect passes. And that's why
I think, Okay, Justin Reid is a really good player
back there for the Texans. They're actually pretty good against
the deep ball. But I think that they just have
too many weapons in Kansas City. I think Travis Kelsey
a would have picked them apart. I don't see this
(43:57):
as as anything more than maybe a ten point game. Right. Finally,
Seahawks Packers Seattle, It's it's you know, listen, if you
listen to this show. I think in my lifetime, Russell
Wilson's the most underappreciated colleger pro player I've ever seen.
People forget he went to conservative Wisconsin, completed seventy three
percent of his throws, thirty three touchdowns, four picks, But
(44:18):
because he was an inch too short, we're not going
to take him. People think Lamar was underdrafted. Literally, all
Russell Wilson did in college at the most conservative offense
was created a firework show. I give Seattle kind of
a shot because of Russell. Do you in this game?
I actually think that the selfs an went very very close. Now,
(44:40):
the Packers, I think are a better team than we
give them credit for it. I saw some stats. They're
the worst, one of the worst thirteen and three teams
in history. Oh they are. That's a nice problem to have.
I'd rather be one of the worst thirteen and three
teams in history than one of the best nine and seventeen.
So listen. The Packers has done a nice team building job.
Zadarius Smith's one of the best players in defensive get
he was at a really good price, really good price,
(45:02):
and could you image if he's still on the Ravens.
How good that team would be my guy, But he
leads the NFL and pressures right now. And I think
that they've done a nice job again of building around
a really expensive quarterback and figuring out what they needed
to do when free agency is basically as good as
you can do when you're paying a quarterback that much. However,
I think Russell Wilson is one of the two three
best quarterbacks in football. I'd actually say it's right now,
(45:24):
it's Lamar Wilson and Mahol. Last week he said it's
the best football player in the world. Yep, it's not crazy,
and he can make plays. And now dk Metcalf breaking
the rookie record forum for receiving yards last week. I mean,
DCA Metcalf is a good example of what smart teams
do the dumb teams don't. They looked at ka Metcalf
said what can he do? Not? What can't he do? Okay,
(45:45):
he couldn't run incredible routes, the three cone was down,
he couldn't change direction. Well, what can he do? He
can run really fast and catch passes and score touchdowns.
And that the Seahawks didn't overthink it. Now they've got
a connection there. I don't you know. Obviously, the running
games now where it needs to be. Marshawn Lynch is
not going to be inspective as the guys he replaced
were injured. But I think this comes down to the
last Listen, you should not have sustainably close games and win.
(46:08):
That's not supposed to happen. You're supposed to you know.
It's peace to be fifty fifty or whatever. That's right.
But the Seahawks have made it work. They understand how
to play in close games. I think they win this game.
They're almost like the Bizarre Chargers, right, everything comes down
to the end, but instead of the Chargers who screw
it up, the Seahawks make it work. I like them
close in this game. Kevin Clark, the Ringer, you just
(46:29):
do terrific work. You're just still thirty three years old.
Ye try, what kind of future is that? It's crazy,
it's unfair. He's our Lamar. He's just got ten twelve
years of nothing but great articles. The Ringer, Kevin Clark
go to what's your what's your Twitter handle? At? By
Kevin Clark. All right again, very clever. It's great seeing
(46:49):
you on all your success, happy marriage, good luck going forward,
love having on the show. Thanks
Thanks for listening to the Best of Herd podcast. Be
sure to catch us live every weekday from twelve to
three eastern, nine to noon Pacific on Fox Sports Radio
and FS one. Find your local station for The Herd
at Fox Sports Radio dot com, or stream us live
every day on the iHeartRadio app by searching Herd. This
is the Best of the Herd with Colin cowher on
Fox Sports Radio. Oh, best show of the week, live
(00:24):
in LA. This is the Herd wherever you may be
and however you may be listening. We're on iHeartRadio, Fox
Sports Radio and f S one. R four picks this
next hour one hour from now, my pick of the
year in the NFL. In one hour, my pick of
the year. Everybody from Will Blackman, Kevin Clarkson gonna stop by.
(00:46):
He's just an absolute riot for the Ringer. NFL writer
Rich Ornberger com on the show. Former patriot comes on
the show today and Joy Taylor is joining me. This
will be my favorite show of the week. We kind
of preview it. Don't preview games a lot on the show. No,
We're kind of talking about all four games today and
a lot of different information coming in. The Browns may
hire a coach in the next several hours. That's happening
(01:09):
as well. Joy, how are you. I'm great. I'm very
excited for this weekends. Yeah, so let's talk. Okay, let
me just talk about Jimmy Garoppolo, Jimmy GQ. Okay, so
this weekend. I think they're as good as anybody in
the NFC. I think they're gonna win the NFC. I
think San Francisco is going to represent the NFC in
the Super Bowl against Kansas City or Baltimore. And we'll
get to those picks in one hour. But I think
they're really, really good. I did like him slightly over
(01:31):
New Orleans. Now the Saints are gone thanks to the Vikings.
Who I think the Niners will beat Jimmy Garoppolo. Now
there are witnesses to this. I said for years when
Garoppolo was backing up Tom Brady, I said, go get him.
What do you need to see? And then with only
twelve touchdown passes and only seven starts in his career,
he got a massive contract. It was one hundred and
(01:53):
thirty seven million, and everybody freaked out and we say, well,
we said he earned it. Well, what do you mean, Well,
let me ask you he's a young man, right, he
shows some elite skills. Right. There's something called seed money.
Do you know what seed money is? Seed money is
(02:14):
when a bunch of young tech people sixteen years old, eighteen, twenty,
twenty one, twenty two, they've got an idea and they
start a business, a tech company, but they don't have
any capital, and so they go to rich people and
they ask for seed money, seed money to make their
company grow, and they ask for a million dollars two
four six eight million dollars. I've been in one of
(02:35):
these meetings one time. Where do they go to college?
What's their plan? Are they good communicators? Because you really
don't know. You have no idea if the company is
going to work, because they don't really have much of
a company, and so you have to judge them on
are they good communicators, what's their temperament? Do they have
some elite schools? Where do they go to college? What
(02:56):
are they providing the market doesn't have? And then big
rich dudes, not me, writing big fat checks. And they
have earned that money. They have earned it through communication
and an idea and verbal skills in their presentation, and
where did they go to school? Well, Jimmy Garoppolo, like
a kid looking for seed money, had gone to the
(03:18):
University of Bill Belichick and was five and oh and
then he got his masters at U see Kyle Shanahan
and was two and oh. So he never lost a start.
I think I'm reversed on that. I think he was
two and over the Patriots five and oh with U
see Kyle Shanahan and a seven to oh. He was
a good communicator, good looking guy who played with a
ton of confidence. He had zip on the ball, and
(03:39):
like the kids starting a tech company, you really didn't know,
but you kind of did know. That's why you write
the check. He absolutely earned it. Folks, we give twelve
to fifteen million dollars a year to quarterbacks who haven't
taken a snap in the NFL. Baker Mayfields made a
boatload of money. Can he even play? So you're gonna
(04:01):
give first round picks thirty percent bust. You're gonna give
them tens of millions of dollars. But Jimmy Garoppolo and
seven starts had never lost a game. The look, the athleticism,
the presentation, the communication skills. He was good when the
camera was on. He was good when the pressure was
on and you're gonna struggle given him money. He had
(04:23):
earned that money. And now, like when you give seed
money to tech companies and they hit, it's stealing because
you only had to give a half million, and now
it's worth two hundred and fifty million dollars, and Garoppolo
now is stealing money. He only makes twenty six million
a year. That is a steal for a number one
seeded quarterback in the NFC, who's gonna play at home
(04:44):
and give you two home playoff games. You'll make half
his salary in two home playoff games at the gate.
You how much money an NFL team makes for a
playoff game at home in San Francisco, What they charge
in Silicon Valley up there in Santa Clara, for Te,
they'll make half his contract these two home games. So
we're always caught up in, oh my god, Jimmy, is
(05:07):
he worth it as he earned it? Young kids who
have tiny little companies, who went to great schools, who
are verbal, who have an idea, who present it to
super rich guys, get checks every single day in this country.
Seventy five percent of them. Those companies dry up, never
(05:28):
make a dollar Jimmy Garoppolo has been uber, He's been Facebook.
Are you kidding me? A number one seed home games
favored in the NFC, The Niners will win this weekend.
He has been worth as we predicted, every single penny,
and Darnwright he earned it. So I want you to
think about this. There are this weekend when you're watching
(05:51):
the games. We all talk about quarterbacks, but five of
the eight playoff teams this weekend have great, impactful cookie
wide receivers. I mean they walk out of college, they
walk into the NFL boom impact, DK Metcalf for Seattle.
How about Deebo Samuel San Francisco as a kid, A J.
Brown at Tennessee, Hollywood Brown with Baltimore, Stefon Diggs, Adam Feeling, Young,
(06:16):
de Hop Will Fuller, Houston, DeVante Adams, Green Bay. These
are kids, They're not that far to college, all sorts.
All these teams have just special guys, and yet New
England can't find one one single wide receiver in a decade.
Nikil Harry this year had one hundred fifty four yards.
(06:42):
That's weird, right, That's a weird blind spot for the
best coach in the history of football and I have
been critical of Bill Belichick, but as you watch the
great receivers this weekend, Kansas City's got one as well
to Tyree Hill and Hardman. When you watch this weekend,
you see all these dynamic receivers. Why is it that
the dynasty, the smartest football coach of our lives, they
(07:04):
haven't gotten one right in a decade. So let's look
at the NFL teams. I always blame Belichick on this,
is it, Brady. Let's look at the NFL teams, the
four to five that we think always tend to draft
wide receivers and develop them really quickly. Pittsburgh, Seattle, Green Bay,
(07:26):
Kansas City in Houston. What do they all have in common?
Big Ben Russell Wilson, Pat Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Aaron Rodgers, Oh, lightbulb.
Quarterbacks that extend plays with their legs, allowing wide receivers
more flexibility in their patterns. A receiver now has four
to five seconds to get open, not one point eight
(07:49):
or two point four. We blame Belichick for all this
receiver stuff, but quarterbacks that extend plays are the franchise
is where all the receivers seem to work. Isn't that funny.
Maybe it's not Belichick, maybe it's Brady, which is why
I've said this is a perfect time for Tom to retire.
(08:12):
Bucky Brooks wrote an article yesterday saying Patriot should let
Tom Brady walk in it. He points to a very
intriguing stat Not only is Brady incapable of attacking the
entire field as a passer, but on throws what they
call out wide throws, outside, big throws, speed receivers, he's
(08:34):
thirty second of thirty two qualified candidates. Folks, Nikhil Harry
is not a bust. He can play. He is not
a bust. But receivers are the most NBA like athletes.
They're tall, they're fast, they're vertical, they're special, they break
the huddle by themselves. They're ISOAX. And in Tom's rigid,
(08:56):
tiny system, you're asking in NBA player to not jump high,
not run fast, get open, quickly catch the ball. In
a system, there is no excuse the dynasty's dying because
they can't elevate an increasingly important position wide receiver. And
(09:18):
Tom can do it. And I love Tom, but it's time.
It's time to wrap a ball on it. Josh McDaniel's
probably getting that Cleveland job, losing all sorts of coaches.
It's funny when you watch the playoffs this weekend. Watch
how many great young receivers that walk into this league
and make massive impacts. They all have one thing in common.
(09:42):
They play with a ad libbing quarterback, a quarterback that
can extend plays, give a receiver opportunities to get open.
Let the most NBA position in the NFL. Be vertical,
be fast, be creative, be expressive. That is just no,
no longer possible with TV twelve, and you know I
(10:03):
love him. Be sure to catch live editions of The
Herd weekdayson noon Easter nine am Pacific. So I want
to say this, we're talking a lot about the hiring practices.
It looks like Josh McDaniels is the leader in the
clubhouse to get the Cleveland job. It'll be combustible. I'll
say that. Between Baker's personality, Jimmy Haslam's personality, and Josh
McDaniel's personality, that's a lot of combustible. I think it's
better than Freddy Kitchens. But there's a lot of stuff
(10:25):
about Josh McDaniel that's very Lane Kiffin iq way up here,
EQ a little lower. It's combustible, fistfights in the film room. Whatever.
So well, we'll get to that later in the show,
because it could happen by the end of the show.
But there's a lot of talk about some of the
NFL's hiring retreads and its retread stuff. You gotta remember,
any job that's high compensation and high pressure has big turnover.
(10:49):
In America, the turnover rate for the average American job
is three and a half percent. In tech, it's thirteen.
For CEO's last year, it was seventeen and a half percent.
A lot of pressure. For NFL coaches, it's over twenty percent.
(11:10):
This was a year where they only fired what five guys.
Jacksonville kept theirs, Atlanta kept theirs. In most years, you're
replacing seven coaches. This year, too survived the cut. Dan
Quinn was going to get fired by week nine. They
got hot in Atlanta, and Doug Morone survived, mostly because
Tom Coughlin took all the heat and so they're bringing
(11:31):
him back. But those guys were literally at that decision
was made in a room over bourbon rocks, and somebody said, ah,
let's keep both those guys. Five guys are out. So remember,
retreads are the ones winning the Super Bowl. Belichick got fired,
Pete Carroll twice of the last twenty three Super Bowls,
(11:52):
fifteen had been won by retreads. Gary Koopiak, Mike Shanahan,
Tom Coughlin, Dick Vermeil, Belichick, Dungee, Pete Carroll, and John
Gruden wasn't fired, but he was traded to Tampa in
a high compensation job with high expectations, with an absurd turnover. Right,
(12:13):
you're going to give people second chances. CEOs get second chances.
Head coaches get second chances. I've never been somebody bothered
by people getting fired. Oprah got fired. She's sort of
my idol in this business. Howard Stern got fired, Jerry
Seinfeld got fired, Mark Cuban got fired. JK Rowling got fired.
Walt Disney got fired. Folks, talented people are outspoken. Outspoken
(12:37):
people see the world differently, and they're not willing to
have lesser talented people above them pushing down. Walt Disney's like,
I'm out, Mark Cuban, I'm out, Howard Stern, I'm out,
Jerry seinfeldt Oprah, I'm out, I'm out. JK Rowling, I'm out.
Walt Disney. I'm out. So when you're fighting, the fire
doesn't bother me. Firing usually means you have a strong
(12:58):
point of view, kind of willful and aspirational, and you
hit a ceiling or a boss that didn't get you.
I'm not saying something. Jim Schwartz I wouldn't hire again.
It's nothing against him. He went to Georgetown. Smart guy.
It's not a guy i'd give a second chance to.
Steve wilkeson Arizona got one year. I'd give him a
second chance. All my sources think Steve Wilkes, who was
(13:21):
the Browns defensive coordinator last year, they like him. They
like him a lot, maybe a little over his skis.
Cliff Kingsbury bombs. Probably not going to give him a
second one. He's a college guy without a winning record there.
But you wouldn't hire Mike Tomlin if the Rooney's moved
off him. Really, you wouldn't hire Mike Tomas You know,
(13:42):
the year and a half ago, John Harball was in
trouble until Lamar Jackson happened. You wouldn't. You wouldn't hire
John Harball. By the way, Andy Reid got fired. You
don't think Kansas City should have hired him. We're making
too much. As Mike McCarthy gets the job in Dallas,
(14:03):
Mike McCarthy got to a Super Bowl and one he
get winning his division. By the way, Green Bay never
bought great defensive players. He mostly did it with average
to below average defenses. It's okay. It's okay to get
fired and in high compensation jobs tech CEO's football coaches.
(14:26):
Just because you get fired doesn't mean you can't improve
and you can't get second opportunities. What's up, everybody? John
Middlecoff Three and Out Podcast. That's me. That's the show
I used to scout in the NFL. Now I talk
about football for a living. You can find me on
Colin Coward's podcast network. Coming up on this show, Joe
Judge to the Giants, Matt Rule to the Panthers, who's
(14:47):
gonna end up in Cleveland? Talk about all the hirings,
and you know I'm diving deep into all the playoff
games this weekend Again, John Middlecoff, that's me. Go subscribe
Three and Out podcast. Former NFL offensive lineman, great radio
TV guy down in San Diego, former Patriot We Love
and rich Orn Burger joining us here on the herd
have not had him on and like a month, and
we are we need some rich to be enriched. All right,
(15:10):
let's start with this. You know. I started the show
talking about how young kids who are seventeen to twenty
seven year old in Silicon Valley and all over the
country are looking for seed money and they go to
good schools and then they they have a little business,
but they don't have any scratch, and big investors give
a millions of dollars, and I think they've earned it.
(15:32):
They've earned it by the presentation, by the idea, by
their ability to communicate as they presented. Jimmy Garoppolo similarly,
he went to a good school, University of Belichick. Then
he went to UC Shanahan. He was seven and oh
he was very verbal, good communicator. So when he got
his contract, everybody freaked out. My takeaway was no, no, no,
this is what we do in America. Young people show
(15:53):
us just enough and we put our arms around him
and we invest in him. So let's go back. You
were a patriot, Yeah, you're pro Garoppolo, absolutely. Why well,
you know, so we didn't overlap there, but a lot
of the guys who Yeah, a lot of the guys
who I played in New England with I kept in
touch with him, Like, so, how about this Jimmy g guy.
(16:13):
I keep hearing about him, you know, backing up Tom
for years. Yeah, everybody said that it was just Tom Junior.
I mean, like, this guy is as good as Tom Brady.
I mean, legitimately heard many times as good as Tom Brady.
He's just a little bit more careless with the football
I practice, but even the way they speak, the way
they command the huddle, he learns a lot, he absorbs things.
(16:35):
He's just smart as a whip and can make all
the throws and has better athleticism. So the guys who
were waiting to see when this sort of change of
hands was going to take place in New England were
really comfortable with the idea that Garoppolo was going to
be the next And I mean he's showing that in
a lot of cases in San Francisco, and that's a
new offense he had to learn. But these guys automatically
(16:59):
started just following his lead. I mean from day one,
from start one, you could see it. That's what they
invested in a field general, and they're gonna have him
for the next ten years at least. Yeah, I want
to talk about there's ways to retire. I think John
Elway MVP Super Bowl, Seacrest out, Derek Jeter gets hits
his final couple at bats, it's perfect. Then there's Muhammad
(17:20):
Ali fighting Larry Holmes for a check and it's just
bad for everybody, including Alid the sport. Larry Holmes, Tom
Brady to me, wrap a bow on it. It's perfect.
The band is breaking up. Josh McDaniels is leaving. He
cannot make now quote the wide side of the field
throws up, the field throws There's a rigidity to his
(17:43):
play that's very hard for young receivers Nikil Harry Jacobe
Myers to really integrate themselves into the system. I can
love Tom, but I'm old enough. I've seen boxers fight
one too many fights and quarterbacks take one too many hit.
Where do you land on Brady retiring? You know, the
best movies that I leave the theater are the ones
that leave you wanting a little bit more. You know.
(18:05):
The ones that I dislike are the ones where I
walk out and I go That was a great movie,
but it was a half hour too long. Yeah, and
that's where we're getting close to with Tom Brady. Now.
He was my quarterback when I was in New England.
I love the way he plays, I love the leader
he is, and I think he can still do it.
But because you still can doesn't mean you should. I mean,
just because you have more film in the can doesn't
(18:27):
mean we need to see it. Leave it on the
editing room floor. Some of the best movies have the
best editors attached to him, and it's for that reason. Look,
I don't remember far Of as a Viking, even though
he's a pro bowler there, remember him as a packer.
I mean, you could say what you want about Montana
winning a playoff game with the Chiefs, but I remember
him as a Niner. I'll never think of Tom Brady
(18:48):
as anything other than a Patriot great. And I think
it's okay to say I've did everything I need to do,
and I did in one jersey, shake Bob Craft's hand,
and right off into the sunset. Even if you're last
plays a pick six. There are a lot of unhappy
endings in football. Go on and run your TV twelve
fortunes and enjoy retirement. You know, go fishing, work part time,
(19:09):
at a hardware store, whatever you're gonna do. I think
he'll be at home depot wearing an apron very soon
before we get to the games, because you've got strong
feelings on all of them. I do believe in I
just said this, high compensation, high pressure jobs. Tech CEOs
have a high turnover rate. The national averages three and
a half techs thirteen CEOs was seventeen percent last year.
(19:31):
NFL head coaches over twenty this year, we had five
lose their job, Dan Quinn and Doug Marone. Somehow there
was a life preserver throne to pull him into the
boat at the very last seconds, or it would have
been seven, which is a quarter of the league. Josh McDaniels,
I do think I would give him another job. I'm
(19:51):
just not sure at Cleveland with an impulsive owner and
an impulsive quarterback is the right job. I'd like more stability.
What do you make of Josh McDaniels and the Browns,
Because that's the leader in the clubhouse and we could
have an announcement tomorrow morning or today. I think it
could work, and I'll tell you why, because second chances,
(20:13):
even though we at first you know at first glance
when he left Denver and there was shame around, you know,
his first attempt at being a head coach. It doesn't
mean that it can't work the next time. In fact,
the best coaches, the best players learned the best from
their mistakes. I can learn as good from a good
example as I came from a battle. I think bad
examples are easier to I think Joy and I have
(20:34):
talked about this. My shortest stay in television, I learned
the most, and that was in Tampa. I learned what
not to do exactly thats all the time. And so
from a personnel standpoint, from the way he controlled that team,
I mean, there are some things that I'm sure he
walks away going. Boy, if I had another opportunity, that
would go completely differently and it might go better. And
I also think that the Cleveland Browns need an offensive
(20:55):
minded head coach. They need somebody who's gonna lock arms
with Baker and it's going to be there with him
for the maining time as a Brown. I think that
could be Josh McDaniels and they're gonna be linked in
this too. You have to, yeah, you have to do
it for Baker. He's already had three head coaches. I
mean you fired his first when he had an interim,
and he's onto the next, and you have to have
(21:16):
some consistency otherwise this situation could turn into what was
the forty nine Ers situation with Alex Smith, who turns
out is a pretty good quarterback when he's in a
consistent setting, like he became when he was chief with
Andy Reid. So I think this marriage could work now.
Discord with the Browns organization. It's all about fit. Though.
(21:37):
Things could look a lot better for the Browns like
they did for the Patriots, who are a laughing stock
for years before Kraft bought the team and Belichick was
their consistency can really heal things. By the way, I tired,
I'm getting tired of this narrative. USA today did it today?
It's like, people, stop. Lamar Jackson got drafted in the
first round. Okay, let's stop the sympathy to it. Baltimore
(22:00):
passed in him in their first pick, allowed Cincinnati shot
at him. Nobody knew it was going to be this
good with Bobby Petrino never completed sixty percent throws in college.
When you're a unique talent, you're harder to evaluate dirt.
Navitski was seven to one and didn't like playing in
the post. He went ninth YEA. Easily the best player
in the draft, Steph Curry shot the ball from thirty
(22:22):
three feet. His range was so unique. People are right,
you can't do that in the pro basketball now. If
you don't shoot at three, you're a bum. So you
look at Lamar. Do you know of all the quarterbacks
playing in the playoffs this weekend? This is how hard
it is to evaluate this position. The highest draft pick
is Ryan Tanning. Now look at this is the screen.
(22:46):
Ryan went eighth. By the way, two number two picks
RG three and Marcus Mariota are busts and backup this weekend,
this position is Johnny Unitis ninth round, Bart Star seventeenth,
the Goat Brady sixth. It's hard. So here's my thing
with Lamar. Let's enjoy it. He went first round. It's
(23:07):
so much fun to watch. I mean, I gotta be
honest with you. I called him a project, so I
kind of. I mean, I didn't wif but I didn't
see this, did you? No? No, absolutely not. I didn't
think the game would transfer and it doesn't have as
much to do with his unique skill set. More that,
did you really feel an offensive coordinator would be particularly
amenable to changing their offense completely to match what he
(23:29):
did while he was at Louisville. No, this is a
very rigid league. You you're up against most offensive coordinators
who want to amend players skill sets to their offense.
There's an ego involved there. I'm gonna find the right
guy and he's gonna champion my ship. That's right. Meanwhile,
what's taking place in Baltimore is beautiful. This is what
(23:52):
we should always do. Take the best ingredients and say, okay,
what is this rude, biggest saying to me, what is
this urn up all about? And let me make the
best STU possible as a supposed to saying, let me
buy the pot first, right, No, buy the best ingredients
and then make your stupe. And that's what the Baltimore
Ravens did. And by the way, I mean, really the
(24:13):
heartbreak around where he was drafted and how it works out,
I mean, that's the guy he replaced. That's literally what
happened with Joe Flacco, sort of an undervalued guy out
of Delaware transferred in college. Exactly. You know, you had
a couple of guys ahead of him on the depth
chart to start that training camp. He won the job,
He won the Hearts of Baltimore, he won them a
super Bowl. We're seeing a very similar trajectory with Lamar Jack.
(24:35):
Why do we love the Joe Burrows story where he
was sort of cast aside at Ohio State? Don't we
love the comeback story? Why don't we love that people
passed on Lamar and he's shoving it you know where.
That's what I love. The Dak Prescott story. I love
these stories. Drew Brees, everybody passed, that's what That's part
(24:57):
of the Drew Brows a little short, went to Purdue.
He didn't have a great arm. For some reason, we
can't enjoy the Lamar story. We're mad about it. I
don't understand why. Well, it isn't it? Also, this is
life like in a lot of ways, it's the ones
we didn't see coming right. I mean, you can you
can say, like, you know whatever, you can say. I
(25:18):
scouted this position. I scoured every moment and I found
the right guy. And a lot of times, I mean
that doesn't work out. It's the guy who's been on
your roster along it's the it's the rom com that
we go and see. It's like, well, it wasn't the
handsome guy who was standing there with the broad shoulders.
It was kind of his geeky do we be friend
who ended up getting the girl. That's how would always go. Half.
(25:38):
The NFL is undrafted, thee the NBA is not. You
can buy the seventh pick of the NBA draft. Historically,
you run out of Kobe's I mean you know, I
mean you get to about like there's a number in
the NBA draft, it's like twelve or thirteen, and you
run out of stars. They are all exceptions after that.
Let's break down the games. Let's get to it. Minnesota,
San Francisco. I could argue two of the top three
(25:58):
rosters in the National Football League. What say you? They
are built almost identically. I mean, they really are really strong, physical,
aggressive defense. Is a run game that really scares you
in a lot of ways. Both teams want to run
the football. They want to use their quarterback as a compliment.
They don't want to highlight Jimmy Garoppolo and San Francisco
(26:19):
the same way. They don't want to do that to
cousins in Minnesota, you know quarterback Raiding Garoppolo's twelve Cousins thirteen. Yeah,
they're a lot closer than you think. I like Garoppolo more,
but they're similar. Throw another guy into that. Aaron Rodgers
is right there and we'll get to that game in
a second. But Aaron Rodgers, another guy's being used as
a compliment right now. But back to Vikings San Francisco.
When you think about these two teams, what it's gonna
(26:41):
be is who wins the war of attrition. It's gonna
set up a lot like the Seattle forty nine er battle.
It's going to be great defense, running the air out
of the ball and not putting Kirk Cousins into a
situation where he has to do it all. He won
that game in ot against the Saints. Yeah, it's the
first time and maybe the only time we've ever seen
him do that in a real big moment. Don't make
(27:03):
it about him. I think this game comes down to
Mike Zimmer's defense against Garoppolo and can he decode what's happening.
Because Mike Zimmer did a fantastic job disguising coverages, getting
aggressive in the blitz package against the New Orleans Saints.
He kept them guessing, he kept Drew Breeze off balance.
They never got into a rhythm, never got into a rhythm,
(27:23):
and that's rare to see in New Orleans. So I
think if the Vikings do that against the San Francisco
forty nine ers to have a chance. But I really
feel like the motion's gonna run out. I think the
Niners win this game. It's very difficult to have a
win like you had in New Orleans and come back
and turn around as a locker room and say, and
we're gonna do it again, all right? Coming up next
(27:46):
Titans Ravens. Similarly, this is why I like the Ravens.
Tennessee may that may have been the biggest music city
winning a decade. It Foxborough, Belichick, Dynasty, Brady. Let's do
it again, Fellas against a significantly better team I think
in Baltimore. But you think it's got potential for an
upset Oh man, you know people are probably gonna be
(28:06):
upset with this one. But I think the road ends
for Lamar Jackson. Yeah. And the reason why is because
the Tennessee Titans, they are just bad dudes. They want
to bring a level of violence to the field. That
we really haven't seen since the two thousand Ravens. They
have a nasty defense. They have a defense who's gonna
come up line against you and say, look, we're just
(28:28):
gonna pound you. We're gonna pound you. Now, if they
can make open field tackles against Lamar Jackson, good on them.
I don't think that's going to be the game plan though.
I think they're going to blitz the dog out of
the Ravens. They're gonna get to the mesh point in
the backfield. The only place Lamar Jackson is vulnerable is
in the backfield, whether that be in the passing game
or the run game. So in the passing game, for
(28:50):
obvious reasons, we all see what a pass rush can
do to a young quarterback. But in the run game,
because everything's deception, everything who has the football get to
them and you're gonna find out real quick because a
quarterback doesn't want to get hit, especially when their hands
are in the chest of their running back. So I
think if the Titans come out fast, and if you
win that toss, you take that ball. Oh, you do
(29:10):
not defer, You do not defer. You take that ball,
and you sit on the ball, you run the air
out of that ball and you don't give it back
for seven minutes out of clip. You sort of devenomize
this Raven's offense by getting blitz heavy against them. And
then you sit to Lamar Jackson. Can you beat us
one on one down the field? And there's some good
matchups there, you know, Brown downfield. It scares you, but
(29:32):
you have to roll the dice if you're gonna beat
a juggernaut like Baltimore, and I think they can. Texans
chiefs Kansas City's defense Andy read off a bye love
that he's very good. I get that the Texans to
me were out gained and trailed more than they led
this year. But again, Deshaun's the human life preserver, so
he saves the day with a flag football play. I
(29:54):
like Kansas City here, What say you you want to
talk about lacking rhythm? This Houston Texans offense is so herky,
jerky and unpredictable. There's no rhythm to it whatsoever. You know,
DeShawn Watson with the Texans this year reminds me of
Aaron Rodgers with Mike McCarthy. Go save the day, Aaron,
our game plan, Aaron Rodgers onto won't too read a
great and that's what it is with DeShawn Watson. It's
(30:16):
backyard football. This guy scrambles, he improvises, he makes plays.
He's a lynchpin to their success in the run game.
Their offensive line isn't very good in the right side
of it. Yeah, so you really have to depend on
just Shaun Watson to win this game for you, and
I don't think they will because Andy Reid, like you mentioned,
after a buye you know what that's good for About
a ten point lead to start a game. Yeah, I
really think his first fifteen plays are going to dissect
(30:40):
disect what the Texans liabilities are defensively, and you're going
to see a Chiefs team out in with a lead
early in this game. With Mahomes, who's the future of
the quarterback position, arrowhead going nuts, the Texans playing on
a tilted field all game long. This is a Chiefs
win and it may be the biggest margin of victory
we see this weekend. Finally, Packers at home against Green Bay.
(31:03):
I think the numbers about right Seattle last week. Now
they're down to their fourth and fifth string running back.
They averaged they just couldn't run the ball so you're
asking a very depleted Seattle team that can win one
way save us Russell. So I'd probably go Green Bay.
But as I've said many times, I don't love the
Packers this year. This game comes down to waron Jones,
(31:26):
not Rogers. They have to run the football again, Like
I was talking about the San Francis, they are good
against the run. But I will say this the Packers
really they played against a lot of teams great against
the run, and they've moved the football on them. This
is this is going to be another one of those games.
Think about how the Bills looked against the Houston Texans.
(31:46):
This could be low scoring, bad weather game, and I
think that actually favors the Packers. I understand a lot
of people are used to looking at the Green Bay
Packers as this highlight offense. They're not anymore. They're not.
They're really not. You know, it's funny Aaron Rodgers completion
percentage over the last two months, his passer rating, it's
remarkably average. And that's not a shot at him. He's
(32:08):
I mean, it's okay. He's had two collar bones. He's
not quite as mobile. Probably doesn't want to get hit.
The older you get quarterbacks. You know, Brady, we saw
this year no interest getting hit Eli, no interest. I'm
with you. I think Green Bay wins kind of ugly.
He's great. Aaron Rodgers is great, and I say that
about him with deference to how things fell apart between
(32:31):
him and McCarthy, because of what he's been able to
do with a new coach. He's really resigned himself to say,
it's your offense, I'll run it. And they've done a
really nice job. And he's one of the most devastating
deep pass throwers in this league. So if they lean
on their run game against the depleted Seattle team because
their offense can't produce, and if they get an early
lead and it's Preston Smith and Zadarius Smith off the
(32:54):
edge against Russell Wilson with a terrible pass blocking offensive line,
this is going to be one of those games where
we see the Packers in control early and they'll lean
on him the rest of the game. It isn't going
to be a sexy win. It's not going to be
one of these box office games where they're trading blows
all the way down the field. But it's gonna be
a Packers win. In though advance. Yeah, Seattle games all
(33:15):
kind of look the same, like the ones they win
and lose. You know, you just you look up and
you're like, oh, it's twenty three twenty and they're seven
to go. That's kind of how Seattle wins. They don't
have the firepower to blow you away, but they have
the player that can win a game where they're outplayed.
And that's Seattle. Okay. Rich arm Burger was absolutely magic today.
One more Herd. The Herd streams twenty four hours a day,
(33:36):
seven days a week within the iHeart Radio app Search
Herd to listen live or on demand whenever you'd like.
Former Wall Street Journal writer then Bill Simmons got smart,
hired him at the Ringer Kevin Clark newly married and everything.
Oh's funny. Oh was smart. It is great to see
you on a Friday. This is one of the great
weekends of the year. Four great NFL games, college Football
National Championship on your Monday. It is great to have
(33:58):
you here. So, you know, we were talking earlier that
my goofy take was that when young tech kids eighteen
to twenty eight are looking for seed money and they
go in and they present it and you're kind of
how do they communicate? Where do they go to college?
Do they have a plan? Are they providing something I
don't have. We give him eighteen million dollars and we think, well,
they earned it. Jimmy Garoppolo was seven to oh at
(34:19):
the University of Belichick and you see Kyle Shanahan and
then everybody's like, whoa twenty six million? And I'm like, no,
I mean, we give money to Baker Mayfield and he's
never played outside of the Big twelve. I didn't have
a problem with the Garoppolo contract, did you? Were you
a little cynical initially when they gave him twenty six
large I understand why they do it. They gave him
(34:40):
forty one million in cash last year they had the
cap room, and so now that the cap hits are
okay the rest of the time, this is the cost
of doing business in the NFL. I mean, you can
keep trying to find the guy, or you can get
the guy and you can commit to him. That's it.
I mean, that's what quarterbacks cost after the first four years.
And so I wasn't offended by the contract. I think
that Jimmy Garoppolo with Kyle Shanahan and with George Kittle
(35:02):
and with Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders. That is an
elite production quarterback. Yeah, this isn't a contest who can
make it the hardest. It's a contest to win the
Super Bowl. And you can win the Super Bowl. We
can see that with Jimmy Garoppolo. They're the one seed
I through the best team in the NFC. And so
if they can build a team. And by the way,
everybody makes excuses about paying quarterbacks and then not being
(35:23):
able to build a team, John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan
have shown you can pay a quarterback, you can build
an infrastructure around them, you can draft well, and you
can build a really good team. So I'm not offended
by the contract because they clearly knew how to make
it work. By the way, I can love the way
John Elway retires, and I can love the athlete Muhammad
Ali and hate that he fought Larry Holmes. There are
(35:44):
I like a neat tidy present, Rappa Bow, Tony Gonzalez,
I can still play Derek Jeter. I'm out, I do
think with the band breaking up in New England, Brian Flores,
Dante Scarneki is getting older. Josh McDaniels may take the
Cleveland job. I do think it's time. I probably in
the minority. Where do you land on Brady in retirement. Well,
(36:07):
I think that it's bigger than just Brady, because you
look at the core. Okay, Devin mccordy's a free agent.
Guys like Matthew Slater who helped run that locker room there,
they're free agents, and so I think there's a bigger
changing of the guard than even we think about. I
think Brady should come back for one more year. He
obviously wants to. I think that it's funny. There's been
a lot of studies done a couple of last couple
of weeks about how quarterbacks age and essentially they fall
(36:29):
off a cliff. There's not a decline. Pro Football Focus
had had a great piece about this week. There's not
a decline. There's a cliff, and I don't think we've
seen that cliff yet with Tom Brady, and I think
he kind of wants to see how far he can
draw it out. I think he said in the past
he wants to play to forty six. That's based on
some real baseball science. Tom house. Some of those guys
you've coached him, they think, Okay, Nolan Ryan was able
to have the mechanics until he was forty six. Tom
(36:52):
Brady could too. I think they want to see how
long this TB twelve method can go, how long he
can do as avocado ice cream and stay healthy. I
think there's some there's a challenge to this now, unlike
anything he's ever facing his career, and I think he
likes that kind of challenge. Hey, can I be productive
at forty three or even forty four? Kevin Clark at
(37:12):
the Ringer. So Josh McDaniels feels like to me, there's
a rock star quality to him. You know I say
this so certain franchises. I call him low self low
self esteem sports franchises. Cleveland's one of these, the Mets
for years, the Jets. When you play in the shadow
of somebody, you know, Steelers down the road, Ohio State football,
here's Cleveland and they you know, they reach, They reach
(37:35):
on quarterbacks, they reach on coaches. They look for the
Baker Mayfield. They said, we like his leadership. Uh, you
know they do this, they reach and Josh McDaniels has
got a lot of Hubris. There's some Lane Kiffin high
IQ lower EQ. I think he's gonna be the guy
if he is. I know Denver was ugly. Could it
work at this point? You take the Cleveland job for
(37:57):
one reason, that's to work one year in the hate
out for four years because of that. I'd like to
put my hat in the ring there. I'd love to
work one year and get paid out for that's amazing,
take a couple of years off, watch a bunch of movies.
So I think that that's that's what's happening. And the
Browns have doomed themselves to failure by not knowing what
they want. They've had five coaches and five gms. They've
(38:20):
their longest tenured coach of this decade is Hugh Jackson,
which is just astounding. And if you're Josh McDaniels, how
can you go into Cleveland and think that this is
going to be any different? How do you not know
that in a year Jimmy Haslim's not going to say, hey,
wait a second, we don't like this either, And all
of a sudden they're hiring their seventh coach and their
seventh GM. I mean, they the only way to guarantee
(38:41):
failures to keep starting over after a year. It takes
six to eight months to even settle in in the
NFL into a new job and learn who the everybody's
names and all that stuff. And they don't have a
great GM. They don't have another issue. And I'm you know,
I'm not in the Baker like everybody else. But I
think it's fair to say he's impulsive. Can you coach
(39:01):
him out of that? I think you can, But I
think you need a time and an infrastructure, and you
need This isn't like Dallas where it's a quick fix.
This is a long term culture fix. This might take
two full years just to get the bad juju out
of the building, Okay, And so I think that with
Baker specifically, Listen, you can't have that kind of talent
(39:24):
he showed at the end of twenty eighteen without being
just a naturally good passer, and that can be brought
out of him again. Yeah, I still believe, against all
evidence in twenty nineteen, that Baker Mayfield can be a
good NFL quarterback because Josh Channel is the higher I'm
not sure. Board I do know is if Jimmy haslim
in twelve months decide to start over again. They're going
to ruin not only his career, but everybody else on
(39:44):
that roster's career, and they're gonna do him their franchise again.
For the record, I think Baker will be much better
next year. If Jim Schwartz I don't like, I think
then Baker's career is done. But if they get Josh,
I do think he reboots. He's okay. I never thought
he was Drew Brees, but I do think he's a
franchise quarterback. All right, Let's go the games. Kevin Clark
the ringer joining US Vikings and the Niners. A lot
(40:05):
of similarities. Pass rushers, all three levels of defense. They
like run games. I go Niners. You say what I say?
Niners as well. I think the best team in the NFC.
I think there's a lot that cancels out in this game.
The Vikings are better than any team at covering the
tight end. George Kittle is the best tight end in football.
The Niners are the best take away the deep pass.
(40:26):
Kirk Cousins a very good deep ball passer. So I
think that just comes down to a couple of different
little things, and that would be roster talent, coaching and quarterback.
And I would say, again, Garoppolo with Kyle Shanahan is
a better quarterback than Kirk Cousins in that infrastruction with
that talent around him. So I'm going to give the
nod to the Niners because of that. I think it
might be close, but I would say maybe ten points.
(40:48):
I think the Niners are really good. Okay, I like
the Ravens to blow out the Titans. Rich Orenberger, who's
very bright, does not calling the upset. How do you
see it? I think it's Ravens too. I think it's
similar to the Niners. They just they're the best team
in their conference and then they're going to win. I
think that Lamar Jackson is you know, there's so many
theories on how to beat Lamar Jackson and no one
(41:08):
has really done it in any meaningful way. The Chargers
did it when he was basically a different player last
with seven defensive backs. I had a conversation with the
guy named Jerome Baker, who plays a linebacker for the
Dolphins a couple weeks ago, and he said that the
problem with Lamar is if you're too slow, he'll just
run right past you. But if you're too fast. He
knows exactly how to use that against you, and he
knows exactly how to play the angles and just let
(41:30):
you overrun him. And that's the problem with Lamar is
if you're too fast or too slow, you will fail.
And that is the problem that every defense has. Either
they're fast and physical and they can't touch him, or
they're too fast and they overrun him, and they overthink
this thing. He crosses the line of scrimmage at thirteen
miles per hour when he runs, which is I drove
drove east to west and Los Angeles. I did not
(41:51):
go thirteen miles per hour at any point during that drive.
And Lamar Jackson that's his average. I just don't know
how an NFL defense reckons with that. And then you
add in the he's the third best passer by passer rating.
I mean it is going to take something very very special.
I like the Titans. I like Derrick Henry Adi Brown,
all the stuff they've done. I think you add in
on the defense that the Ravens blitzing and Tannehill's PROPENSI
(42:12):
to fall down over his career. I don't see this
particularly encouraging for the Titans. All right, Andy Reidoff. A
bye is remarkable. They get one here against the Houston
team that was out gained and trailed more than lad.
I can't if I was a sports gambler, I just
would not bet Texans games. Ever, I think they're impossible
to figure out. They're a flag football team with four
(42:34):
minutes to go with the best flag football quarterback in
the league. Kansas City feels like a significantly better team.
And by the way, Kevin, their defense has been terrific
from about last six weeks. Yeah, Kansas City's all we
wanted last January. All anybody talked about in the media
was what the defense gets a little bit better? He
just gets a little bit better. They fire Bob Sutton, Well,
(42:54):
that happened. In fact, they've gotten a lot better over
the past month. They shut down the Patriots, although that
ended up not being as bigger than accomplishment as we thought.
But then they hold the drew lock to three points
mit biscuity of three points. They have been salad Tron
Matthews playing really well, and so I think that generally
this is the team we wanted to see last January.
The only problem is Mahomes is not putting up the
numbers he put up last year, but he's basically the
(43:16):
same guy. I feel like we've all collectively forgotten. Think
the Beatles movie yesterday, right, we all woke up, and
I feel like I'm the only person who remembers how
good Patrick Mahomes just we're not talking about I'm talking
about Lamar Jackson. And I've said this before. I like Lamar,
but if you said, next ten years, who's the better
quarterback like Mahomes going to run the league? Yeah, He's
an unbelievable, all time transformational talent without a doubt. And
(43:37):
for all the things Lamar does, the hardest thing to
defend in the history of the NFL is a perfectly
thrown pass. Patrick Mahomes throws perfect passes. And that's why
I think, Okay, Justin Reid is a really good player
back there for the Texans. They're actually pretty good against
the deep ball. But I think that they just have
too many weapons in Kansas City. I think Travis Kelsey
a would have picked them apart. I don't see this
(43:57):
as as anything more than maybe a ten point game. Right. Finally,
Seahawks Packers Seattle, It's it's you know, listen, if you
listen to this show. I think in my lifetime, Russell
Wilson's the most underappreciated colleger pro player I've ever seen.
People forget he went to conservative Wisconsin, completed seventy three
percent of his throws, thirty three touchdowns, four picks, But
(44:18):
because he was an inch too short, we're not going
to take him. People think Lamar was underdrafted. Literally, all
Russell Wilson did in college at the most conservative offense
was created a firework show. I give Seattle kind of
a shot because of Russell. Do you in this game?
I actually think that the selfs an went very very close. Now,
(44:40):
the Packers, I think are a better team than we
give them credit for it. I saw some stats. They're
the worst, one of the worst thirteen and three teams
in history. Oh they are. That's a nice problem to have.
I'd rather be one of the worst thirteen and three
teams in history than one of the best nine and seventeen.
So listen. The Packers has done a nice team building job.
Zadarius Smith's one of the best players in defensive get
he was at a really good price, really good price,
(45:02):
and could you image if he's still on the Ravens.
How good that team would be my guy, But he
leads the NFL and pressures right now. And I think
that they've done a nice job again of building around
a really expensive quarterback and figuring out what they needed
to do when free agency is basically as good as
you can do when you're paying a quarterback that much. However,
I think Russell Wilson is one of the two three
best quarterbacks in football. I'd actually say it's right now,
(45:24):
it's Lamar Wilson and Mahol. Last week he said it's
the best football player in the world. Yep, it's not crazy,
and he can make plays. And now dk Metcalf breaking
the rookie record forum for receiving yards last week. I mean,
DCA Metcalf is a good example of what smart teams
do the dumb teams don't. They looked at ka Metcalf
said what can he do? Not? What can't he do? Okay,
(45:45):
he couldn't run incredible routes, the three cone was down,
he couldn't change direction. Well, what can he do? He
can run really fast and catch passes and score touchdowns.
And that the Seahawks didn't overthink it. Now they've got
a connection there. I don't you know. Obviously, the running
games now where it needs to be. Marshawn Lynch is
not going to be inspective as the guys he replaced
were injured. But I think this comes down to the
last Listen, you should not have sustainably close games and win.
(46:08):
That's not supposed to happen. You're supposed to you know.
It's peace to be fifty fifty or whatever. That's right.
But the Seahawks have made it work. They understand how
to play in close games. I think they win this game.
They're almost like the Bizarre Chargers, right, everything comes down
to the end, but instead of the Chargers who screw
it up, the Seahawks make it work. I like them
close in this game. Kevin Clark, the Ringer, you just
(46:29):
do terrific work. You're just still thirty three years old.
Ye try, what kind of future is that? It's crazy,
it's unfair. He's our Lamar. He's just got ten twelve
years of nothing but great articles. The Ringer, Kevin Clark
go to what's your what's your Twitter handle? At? By
Kevin Clark. All right again, very clever. It's great seeing
(46:49):
you on all your success, happy marriage, good luck going forward,
love having on the show. Thanks
Hosts And Creators
Colin Cowherd
Jason McIntyre
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