January 11, 2020 • 18 mins
Colin doesn't do an official Blazing 5 for during the playoffs but he does go over all four games of the divisional round with RJ Bell of Fox Sports Radio and Pregame.com and RJ tells him which side the sharps in Vegas are on. Plus, they preview the National Championship between Clemson and LSU to see which side is the right side.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
All right. RJ Bell pregame dot Com host the show
Straight out of Vegas six to seven Eastern on Fox
Sports Radio. His Twitter handle at RJ and Vegas. As
I've said, during the regular season, I get fourteen fifteen
games to choose from. That's why I have a blazing five.
But in the playoffs there's often just one game I like.
(00:22):
I like Philadelphia last week until Carson Wentz got hurt.
So here we go in a four playoff games forty
nine ers minus seven at home. My gut would be
the line's right. I would take Minnesota plus the points,
mostly because I think their defense, in their coaching will
keep it close. I think there is some pressure on
(00:43):
Jimmy g and Kyle Shanahan. This is new territory for them,
a lot of pressure. I would take Minnesota and the points.
But I think the numbers pretty much right on what
are the wise guys think a lot of wisdom calling
what you just said. A couple of things. One five
games out of fifteen sixteen in the regular season, Okay,
about one in three games, right, Well, if you only
(01:05):
play one in three, now, you're gonna play one game
typically right in that range. If you're playing three out
of four, four out of four. The only way to
win is if the line is incorrect and you just said, hey,
the line's right now. If you're right about that, you
could play the favorite, you could play the dog. You're
gonna win about half the time, but you're gonna lose
because of that vig, that dastardly vig. So very important,
(01:28):
probably the most important lesson for the listeners. You can't
play every game when there's only four games. All that said,
I lean strongly to San fran two. You know, forty
nine ers at home best point differential in the NFL. Wow, Okay, yeah,
And I mean you just don't get a you're not
hearing that conversation. It's only one season, but remember back
(01:49):
in the Walsh days, that was a heck of a
home field advantage they had up there. Yes, on the season,
forty nine ers have the third best net yards differential.
So how many yards did they gain? How many yards
of the opponents game? And it's interesting of the top
nine teams, only two of them are in the playoffs.
This was a year Dallas was the second best yardas differential.
(02:13):
In any one game, you could say, well, they threw
for a lot against Green Bay, but across sixteen games
a season, the yardage differential was very meaningful. Yeah. I
think we've got some overrated teams this year in the playoffs,
and we'll get to some of them here in a
few minutes. Here's the question, and let me ask you
about the forty nine Ers. First seven games of the year,
(02:35):
best defense right there with New England in the NFL.
Eleven points per game they gave up. That was number one.
Last nine games, they've given up twenty six points per game,
which d do we see? Well? Remember in the final
nine games they did play the Ravens and the Saints,
so you face some really good quarterbacks. They also had
injuries to deal with. I don't think their defense is
(02:57):
as bad as the last nine or as good as
the first seven, but it is healthier. My issue here is,
I think the narrative is Jimmy G is much better
than Kirk Cousins. I think he's better, but I think
it's close, and I think the rosters are close. That's
why I like Minnesota. Yeah, So if you look at
Jimmy G and Cousins, if you look at the QBR,
(03:20):
which is a very respected ranking Jimmy g number twelve,
Cousins number thirteen. Here's the thing about Cousins, and we
actually broke this research two months ago. Cousins start time.
When he starts at one o'clock Eastern games, an early
game typical Sunday. In his career, he's covered about sixty
(03:42):
six percent of the time. Wow, no quarterback in NFL history,
across his entire career has ever covered that much, Which
says Jimmy or check that Cousins at one o'clock is
better against vegas spread than any quarterback's ever been for
his career. Now, if you look at the flip side
non one o'clock starts, he only covers a third of
(04:05):
the time, about thirty three percent. And no quarterback of
any length of career has ever been that bad. So
Cousins is as good as anyone's ever been against the
vegas spread at one o'clock and as bad as anyone's
ever been when it's a non one o'clock start. To me,
that's probably worth three or four points. And I mean
we looked at it at length and said, well, let's
(04:25):
be conservative, let's no three or four points. I don't
think you can play Minnesota, or at least not with
my money if it's a situation where it's not a
one o'clock start. So I'm gonna lean Sana France. What
time a starting time for this game? But this one's
four thirty Eastern is the time though local time, it's
it's one thirty alright, Alright, So Ravens minus nine and
(04:45):
a half hosting the Titans, I would take the Ravens here.
And here's why. When you look at franchises that have
these kind of historic wins, and this is arguably the
biggest win for the Titans. It feels like in a decade.
I think it's really hard emotionally to match it. And
it wasn't only a win. It was beating the dynasty.
It was Belichick, Brady Foxboro. I think it's hard to
(05:07):
fly back home and then go all right, emotionally, let's
go and not only match that effort. We'll have to
be better this week. I think Baltimore is their defense
is the story as much as Lamar. But Lamar is
so fascinating. He's kind of taking the oxygen out of
the room. I think this is one of the best
(05:28):
defenses currently in the league. So I'm gonna take Baltimore
to win here by double digits. What would the wise
guys say, a lot of surprises. I think people were
gonna be surprised. I agree. And here's the thing about
double digit favorites is nine and a half now, so
it's right in that range. In the regular season, it's
almost always dog or pass for me. Yeah, and the
(05:50):
reason being, there's a percentage chance thirty that the favorite
is gonna be a little flat. They're gonna look past
the team just a little bit because hey, they're double
digit favorites. You never look past the team in the playoffs.
So what you get is a clearly superior team with
total focus, and those teams tend to cover the spread.
(06:11):
In fact, double digit favorites eighth straight in the playoffs
have covered. Now, again, this is nine and a half.
It's not like we like it better if it goes
to ten. It's just saying this is that type of game. Also,
there's a trend out there. You'll see different numbers. A
team that knocks out the Super Bowl champion from the
playoffs tends to be flat the next week. There's significantly
(06:33):
below five hundred against the spread. By the way, That's
why I've said Clemson over Ohio State was my college
bet of the year. Baltimore over the Titans is the
one game so far in the playoffs. I'm gonna take
my money and bet it on the Ravens. Your point
is mine. This is about emotion. I think this is
a bad spot for Tennessee. I agree. And also, and
(06:55):
this is something I think I don't think I've heard
anyone talk about. I think you got to hold variable
accountable for this week seventeen, they had to win against Houston,
locked up, they were in the playoffs, and they kept
feeding the ball to Henry fed the ball. He had
over thirty carries. Why to win the rushing title? Now
(07:16):
that was it. There was no other reason. Then he
had thirty plus carries against New England the next week.
In his entire career before those two games, he had
one game with thirty plus carries. Now he's doing it
two in a row, and now it's a third straight
road game. If he's not fatigued, then why aren't backs
running thirty plus every game? I mean, this is the
definition of Henry being a little bit, at minimum a
(07:39):
little bit I think compromise, and really, why why the
rushing title, who's going to remember that? Now? Last thing
you mentioned the defense for the Ravens. To me, it's
not just oh, mid season, it was an arbitrary start
time that all of a sudden they started playing well,
No Jimmy Smith when he came back healthy and they
(08:01):
got Peters from the Rams. Now they have elite corners.
Since then, their defense has been outstanding. So I love
when a trend changes, and we'll get to that a
little bit in Kansas City. When there's a reason for it,
it's not just oh, it just started. It's like you
can clearly say that's why the Ravens defense got better
and really maybe one of the best seasons we've ever
(08:21):
seen against the spread. And oh, by the way, Ravens
first team to enter the playoffs in a twelve game
winning streak since the undefeated Patriots in two thousand and seven.
This is a very good team agreement, Ravens. I would
bet a little bit on the Chiefs minus eight and
a half. First of all, it's Andy reid off a bye.
You and I have discussed it. Great coaches are often
(08:42):
better off buys. There's five or six coaches who are
elite Hardbaugh, Sean Payton, Andy Reid, Belichick. First thing. Second,
the Texans are kind of a talented mess once again.
They fall into a deep hole right side of their
offensive lines. Not trustable, and you know, to Shaun makes
a flag football play and wins. I think this could
(09:03):
get ugly. I think Kansas City's defense has played great,
had a lot of new faces. And you know, I
was asking a guest on the show this week and
I asked him when you go to a new team,
how long does it take as a player to figure
out the defense? And he said, you know, it's the
second half of the season. You want to be running,
not thinking. So I'm gonna take Kansas City's revamped defense
(09:24):
is really playing now with a great deal of speed
over the Texans. What would the wise guys say, You know,
we're all feeling pretty good as straight out of Vegas
that you've adopted our feelings on Kansas City column. Yeah,
I remember, I am now all in. I remember right
here and it was, hey, let's get Fazi cradit. He
was the first in the country saying hey, when Kansas
City was four and oh where did they have? They
(09:45):
had a defense about as good as last year and
Mahomes healthy. Then about four or five games ago, Mahomes
was healthy again, and the defense was batter because it
was the first year or the coordinator. And if all
you did college or pro was take a coordinator, a
new one and fade them the first third of the season,
be neutral the middle third, and be on them the
(10:09):
final third, that's it. Blind. You'd probably win a little time,
you'd hit like fifty two and a half percent. I think.
So there really is a bias to what you said.
And the irony is the marketplace gets more excited early
because they had the whole offseason to talk about the
new coordinator. Oh, this is going to change things, and
then when people get disappointed early, they jump off the bandwagon.
(10:31):
I think Kansas City right now. I mean, in a
lot of years, Kansas City would clearly be the best
team in the or in the NFL. It's an example though,
with Baltimore being so good. You talked about any reidoff
a bye in his career, twenty three and five straight up,
nineteen and nine against the spread, so very very very good.
(10:52):
Let's talk and quantify that Kansas City defense. First ten games,
they allowed twenty four points a game last six only
twelve points a game. Now a competition, blah blah blah.
But if you look at the Football Outsiders, DVOA for
those six games the eighth best defense in the NFL.
So if Kansas City truly has the eighth best defense,
(11:15):
they might be better than Baltimore. I mean, that's if
it ends up being those two in the five or
conference finals. What a game last thing? And I agree
with you here, by the way, Kansas City, I like him.
Houston was outgained on the season a right more yards.
They were outscored on the season. No team this century,
all right, has made the conference finals in which they
(11:37):
were outgained and outscored. Seven of them made the division
round O and seventh straight up one in six against
the spread. So you can get so far being kind
of a lucky team. And remember in close games Houston's
nine and three this season. That doesn't maintain they would
be the first team ever to be outgained and outscored
that would make the conference finals this century agreement, Kansas City,
(11:59):
all right, guys looked up this weekend. They also trailed
more than they led this year. Oh the game control
stat that those are always interesting yeah, finally, listen. I
think Seattle is now a one dimensional team. They can't run.
I don't think one dimensional teams can go on the
road and beat a team that has multidimensional assets on offense,
(12:21):
green Bay. So I take green Bay to win. The
number at four and a half is pretty tasty because
Seattle here's my thing. If it's close, I like Seattle
to win. I don't know if it will be. I
think green Bay scores early. Seattle will be playing from behind.
They don't have a running game anymore, so I think
green Bay wins four and a half. I would stay
(12:43):
away from this. I think it's going to be on
the number, but if I had to, I'd probably go Seattle.
What would the wise guys say? Green Bay? And this
is one of those games in which I had no
opinion yesterday and this season I've allowed myself and you know, hey,
it's my twenty second year in Vegas, right, I'm in
my late forties. I've done this since I was fourteen.
(13:04):
I keep trying to evolve, and one of the things
this season I'm really happy about is you just let
those games sit out there, don't force an opinion on them.
And sometimes it just hits you like, what am I?
How did I miss this? How did I miss the
fact that Green Bay has maybe the best home field
in the NFL, which I knew that, So the line
(13:25):
of four wouldn't say these are even teams. Now you
might say, okay, well, both teams were outgained on the season.
By the way, this is only the second time again
this century that two teams in the Division Round are
later matt and both were outgained on their season, and
Seattle was only outpointed opponents by seven. So I mean,
this is like Houston, except they got Russell Wilson. But
(13:47):
you might say, well, they still have Russell Wilson. Yeah,
Seattle is eleven and two and one score games including
the playoffs. That's the most in the history of the NFL,
tied with the twenty fifteen Broncos of winning one score game.
So if they in one more one score game, they'll
be in some ways the luckiest team ever. You might say,
Russell Wilson's what's causing that. In his career prior to
(14:08):
this year, Russell Wilson was three games below five hundred
and one score games. So did he just all of
a sudden get great at it. I'm not saying he
hasn't taken a step this year. It's not supposed to
be eleven and two in these games, and if he
just lost even a couple more of them, they might
not have even made the playoffs. So to me, green
Bay's a little overrated. I think Seattle's way overrated. The
(14:31):
line is saying these are even teams because green Bay's
home field so good. I am starting to love green Bay.
By the way, one more. I like Clemson plus six
Monday Night. I'll give you my theory on it. You
live in Vegas and you've gone to Tyson fives. So
if you've for the boxers who had never faced Mike Tyson,
there was this The rule on Tyson was get to
(14:55):
the fourth round, he tires, but the barrage and the
intensity of his power was so much early it kept
even good fighters on their heels. So Clemson played a
lousy schedule all year. The ACC's easily the worst conference,
Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech all down, so they really
hadn't faced a roster, a well coached roster of NFL
(15:18):
athletes until Ohio State, and like Tyson, they were back
on their heels for a little more than a quarter,
but by the middle second quarter on Clemson averaged seven
point four yards a play Ohio State, all those draft
picks Chase Young could not stop them. No turnovers, late interceptions,
(15:43):
few penalties. They were playing comfortable football. Well, now they
play LSU having played Ohio State, so they will be
a much better team early with I think a better
staff and a better quarterback. I love Clemson plus six here.
What would the wise guys or you say, Well, here's
the first thing I'd say, Is it true? This is
(16:04):
a rumor that you have a big Michael Spins ticket
that you know obviously they in cash framed in your office.
I do not. No, you're those Tyson fights man, all right, agreement,
and I think you made it a little complicated. I
think all you gotta do in this game is look
at what the projected line was. And these weren't projected like, oh,
(16:26):
let's put it in the newspaper. These were battable lines.
So there were four possible finals, right, So they had
all four matchups on the board before last games, right,
the semifinals. The line in the Clemson LSU was pick them. Now.
What happened in the interim. I agree, I think you
maybe even you might downgrade Clemson a little bit off
(16:47):
that win. I mean, it was kind of like but
still they were at worst it was and they were
right in it with a High State and they won.
So congrats, and let's be candid. LSU looked as good
as any team can look, So upgrade then maybe two
points and add powers who does our power ratings? And
he's done this show numerous times. He's had a situation
where he says, all right, let's give LSU two points.
(17:08):
That's about as much as you can upgrade a team
this late in the year. And let's say he actually
downgraded Clemson one off the High State win, which seems counterintuitive,
but Vegas is saying, what do we know about this team? Now?
We didn't know before, and he didn't. He wasn't all
that impressed with Clemson. Still, this line should be less
than three. So six is just the public has gotten
so excited the Heisman winner. They're blown everybody out. I
(17:32):
think this line keeps going up. And one of the
great important things you need to do is a batter
is decide when to bat. So if you're listening on Saturday, morning.
My advice, we never know for sure you might be
able to get a six and a half or even
a seven. Now there's a chance you might lose points,
so you've got to make a calculated risk. But this
is pure value. Clemson, r J Bell Pregame dot Com.
(17:56):
Have a great weekend. We'll talk in a couple of
we'll talk soon, we'll talk before the super Bowl, we'll
do a show, and next week we'll do a show.
So we have a few more his Twitter handle. As always,
be careful at social media, kids. It's a very, very
toxic out there at RJ in Vegas and his show
is Straight out of Vegas six to seven Eastern on
(18:17):
Fox Sports Radio. It's through the Roof this year, the podcast,
the ratings through the Roof. Have a good weekend, RJ.
Thank you,
All right. RJ Bell pregame dot Com host the show
Straight out of Vegas six to seven Eastern on Fox
Sports Radio. His Twitter handle at RJ and Vegas. As
I've said, during the regular season, I get fourteen fifteen
games to choose from. That's why I have a blazing five.
But in the playoffs there's often just one game I like.
(00:22):
I like Philadelphia last week until Carson Wentz got hurt.
So here we go in a four playoff games forty
nine ers minus seven at home. My gut would be
the line's right. I would take Minnesota plus the points,
mostly because I think their defense, in their coaching will
keep it close. I think there is some pressure on
(00:43):
Jimmy g and Kyle Shanahan. This is new territory for them,
a lot of pressure. I would take Minnesota and the points.
But I think the numbers pretty much right on what
are the wise guys think a lot of wisdom calling
what you just said. A couple of things. One five
games out of fifteen sixteen in the regular season, Okay,
about one in three games, right, Well, if you only
(01:05):
play one in three, now, you're gonna play one game
typically right in that range. If you're playing three out
of four, four out of four. The only way to
win is if the line is incorrect and you just said, hey,
the line's right now. If you're right about that, you
could play the favorite, you could play the dog. You're
gonna win about half the time, but you're gonna lose
because of that vig, that dastardly vig. So very important,
(01:28):
probably the most important lesson for the listeners. You can't
play every game when there's only four games. All that said,
I lean strongly to San fran two. You know, forty
nine ers at home best point differential in the NFL. Wow, Okay, yeah,
And I mean you just don't get a you're not
hearing that conversation. It's only one season, but remember back
(01:49):
in the Walsh days, that was a heck of a
home field advantage they had up there. Yes, on the season,
forty nine ers have the third best net yards differential.
So how many yards did they gain? How many yards
of the opponents game? And it's interesting of the top
nine teams, only two of them are in the playoffs.
This was a year Dallas was the second best yardas differential.
(02:13):
In any one game, you could say, well, they threw
for a lot against Green Bay, but across sixteen games
a season, the yardage differential was very meaningful. Yeah. I
think we've got some overrated teams this year in the playoffs,
and we'll get to some of them here in a
few minutes. Here's the question, and let me ask you
about the forty nine Ers. First seven games of the year,
(02:35):
best defense right there with New England in the NFL.
Eleven points per game they gave up. That was number one.
Last nine games, they've given up twenty six points per game,
which d do we see? Well? Remember in the final
nine games they did play the Ravens and the Saints,
so you face some really good quarterbacks. They also had
injuries to deal with. I don't think their defense is
(02:57):
as bad as the last nine or as good as
the first seven, but it is healthier. My issue here is,
I think the narrative is Jimmy G is much better
than Kirk Cousins. I think he's better, but I think
it's close, and I think the rosters are close. That's
why I like Minnesota. Yeah, So if you look at
Jimmy G and Cousins, if you look at the QBR,
(03:20):
which is a very respected ranking Jimmy g number twelve,
Cousins number thirteen. Here's the thing about Cousins, and we
actually broke this research two months ago. Cousins start time.
When he starts at one o'clock Eastern games, an early
game typical Sunday. In his career, he's covered about sixty
(03:42):
six percent of the time. Wow, no quarterback in NFL history,
across his entire career has ever covered that much, Which
says Jimmy or check that Cousins at one o'clock is
better against vegas spread than any quarterback's ever been for
his career. Now, if you look at the flip side
non one o'clock starts, he only covers a third of
(04:05):
the time, about thirty three percent. And no quarterback of
any length of career has ever been that bad. So
Cousins is as good as anyone's ever been against the
vegas spread at one o'clock and as bad as anyone's
ever been when it's a non one o'clock start. To me,
that's probably worth three or four points. And I mean
we looked at it at length and said, well, let's
(04:25):
be conservative, let's no three or four points. I don't
think you can play Minnesota, or at least not with
my money if it's a situation where it's not a
one o'clock start. So I'm gonna lean Sana France. What
time a starting time for this game? But this one's
four thirty Eastern is the time though local time, it's
it's one thirty alright, Alright, So Ravens minus nine and
(04:45):
a half hosting the Titans, I would take the Ravens here.
And here's why. When you look at franchises that have
these kind of historic wins, and this is arguably the
biggest win for the Titans. It feels like in a decade.
I think it's really hard emotionally to match it. And
it wasn't only a win. It was beating the dynasty.
It was Belichick, Brady Foxboro. I think it's hard to
(05:07):
fly back home and then go all right, emotionally, let's
go and not only match that effort. We'll have to
be better this week. I think Baltimore is their defense
is the story as much as Lamar. But Lamar is
so fascinating. He's kind of taking the oxygen out of
the room. I think this is one of the best
(05:28):
defenses currently in the league. So I'm gonna take Baltimore
to win here by double digits. What would the wise
guys say, a lot of surprises. I think people were
gonna be surprised. I agree. And here's the thing about
double digit favorites is nine and a half now, so
it's right in that range. In the regular season, it's
almost always dog or pass for me. Yeah, and the
(05:50):
reason being, there's a percentage chance thirty that the favorite
is gonna be a little flat. They're gonna look past
the team just a little bit because hey, they're double
digit favorites. You never look past the team in the playoffs.
So what you get is a clearly superior team with
total focus, and those teams tend to cover the spread.
(06:11):
In fact, double digit favorites eighth straight in the playoffs
have covered. Now, again, this is nine and a half.
It's not like we like it better if it goes
to ten. It's just saying this is that type of game. Also,
there's a trend out there. You'll see different numbers. A
team that knocks out the Super Bowl champion from the
playoffs tends to be flat the next week. There's significantly
(06:33):
below five hundred against the spread. By the way, That's
why I've said Clemson over Ohio State was my college
bet of the year. Baltimore over the Titans is the
one game so far in the playoffs. I'm gonna take
my money and bet it on the Ravens. Your point
is mine. This is about emotion. I think this is
a bad spot for Tennessee. I agree. And also, and
(06:55):
this is something I think I don't think I've heard
anyone talk about. I think you got to hold variable
accountable for this week seventeen, they had to win against Houston,
locked up, they were in the playoffs, and they kept
feeding the ball to Henry fed the ball. He had
over thirty carries. Why to win the rushing title? Now
(07:16):
that was it. There was no other reason. Then he
had thirty plus carries against New England the next week.
In his entire career before those two games, he had
one game with thirty plus carries. Now he's doing it
two in a row, and now it's a third straight
road game. If he's not fatigued, then why aren't backs
running thirty plus every game? I mean, this is the
definition of Henry being a little bit, at minimum a
(07:39):
little bit I think compromise, and really, why why the
rushing title, who's going to remember that? Now? Last thing
you mentioned the defense for the Ravens. To me, it's
not just oh, mid season, it was an arbitrary start
time that all of a sudden they started playing well,
No Jimmy Smith when he came back healthy and they
(08:01):
got Peters from the Rams. Now they have elite corners.
Since then, their defense has been outstanding. So I love
when a trend changes, and we'll get to that a
little bit in Kansas City. When there's a reason for it,
it's not just oh, it just started. It's like you
can clearly say that's why the Ravens defense got better
and really maybe one of the best seasons we've ever
(08:21):
seen against the spread. And oh, by the way, Ravens
first team to enter the playoffs in a twelve game
winning streak since the undefeated Patriots in two thousand and seven.
This is a very good team agreement, Ravens. I would
bet a little bit on the Chiefs minus eight and
a half. First of all, it's Andy reid off a bye.
You and I have discussed it. Great coaches are often
(08:42):
better off buys. There's five or six coaches who are
elite Hardbaugh, Sean Payton, Andy Reid, Belichick. First thing. Second,
the Texans are kind of a talented mess once again.
They fall into a deep hole right side of their
offensive lines. Not trustable, and you know, to Shaun makes
a flag football play and wins. I think this could
(09:03):
get ugly. I think Kansas City's defense has played great,
had a lot of new faces. And you know, I
was asking a guest on the show this week and
I asked him when you go to a new team,
how long does it take as a player to figure
out the defense? And he said, you know, it's the
second half of the season. You want to be running,
not thinking. So I'm gonna take Kansas City's revamped defense
(09:24):
is really playing now with a great deal of speed
over the Texans. What would the wise guys say, You know,
we're all feeling pretty good as straight out of Vegas
that you've adopted our feelings on Kansas City column. Yeah,
I remember, I am now all in. I remember right
here and it was, hey, let's get Fazi cradit. He
was the first in the country saying hey, when Kansas
City was four and oh where did they have? They
(09:45):
had a defense about as good as last year and
Mahomes healthy. Then about four or five games ago, Mahomes
was healthy again, and the defense was batter because it
was the first year or the coordinator. And if all
you did college or pro was take a coordinator, a
new one and fade them the first third of the season,
be neutral the middle third, and be on them the
(10:09):
final third, that's it. Blind. You'd probably win a little time,
you'd hit like fifty two and a half percent. I think.
So there really is a bias to what you said.
And the irony is the marketplace gets more excited early
because they had the whole offseason to talk about the
new coordinator. Oh, this is going to change things, and
then when people get disappointed early, they jump off the bandwagon.
(10:31):
I think Kansas City right now. I mean, in a
lot of years, Kansas City would clearly be the best
team in the or in the NFL. It's an example though,
with Baltimore being so good. You talked about any reidoff
a bye in his career, twenty three and five straight up,
nineteen and nine against the spread, so very very very good.
(10:52):
Let's talk and quantify that Kansas City defense. First ten games,
they allowed twenty four points a game last six only
twelve points a game. Now a competition, blah blah blah.
But if you look at the Football Outsiders, DVOA for
those six games the eighth best defense in the NFL.
So if Kansas City truly has the eighth best defense,
(11:15):
they might be better than Baltimore. I mean, that's if
it ends up being those two in the five or
conference finals. What a game last thing? And I agree
with you here, by the way, Kansas City, I like him.
Houston was outgained on the season a right more yards.
They were outscored on the season. No team this century,
all right, has made the conference finals in which they
(11:37):
were outgained and outscored. Seven of them made the division
round O and seventh straight up one in six against
the spread. So you can get so far being kind
of a lucky team. And remember in close games Houston's
nine and three this season. That doesn't maintain they would
be the first team ever to be outgained and outscored
that would make the conference finals this century agreement, Kansas City,
(11:59):
all right, guys looked up this weekend. They also trailed
more than they led this year. Oh the game control
stat that those are always interesting yeah, finally, listen. I
think Seattle is now a one dimensional team. They can't run.
I don't think one dimensional teams can go on the
road and beat a team that has multidimensional assets on offense,
(12:21):
green Bay. So I take green Bay to win. The
number at four and a half is pretty tasty because
Seattle here's my thing. If it's close, I like Seattle
to win. I don't know if it will be. I
think green Bay scores early. Seattle will be playing from behind.
They don't have a running game anymore, so I think
green Bay wins four and a half. I would stay
(12:43):
away from this. I think it's going to be on
the number, but if I had to, I'd probably go Seattle.
What would the wise guys say? Green Bay? And this
is one of those games in which I had no
opinion yesterday and this season I've allowed myself and you know, hey,
it's my twenty second year in Vegas, right, I'm in
my late forties. I've done this since I was fourteen.
(13:04):
I keep trying to evolve, and one of the things
this season I'm really happy about is you just let
those games sit out there, don't force an opinion on them.
And sometimes it just hits you like, what am I?
How did I miss this? How did I miss the
fact that Green Bay has maybe the best home field
in the NFL, which I knew that, So the line
(13:25):
of four wouldn't say these are even teams. Now you
might say, okay, well, both teams were outgained on the season.
By the way, this is only the second time again
this century that two teams in the Division Round are
later matt and both were outgained on their season, and
Seattle was only outpointed opponents by seven. So I mean,
this is like Houston, except they got Russell Wilson. But
(13:47):
you might say, well, they still have Russell Wilson. Yeah,
Seattle is eleven and two and one score games including
the playoffs. That's the most in the history of the NFL,
tied with the twenty fifteen Broncos of winning one score game.
So if they in one more one score game, they'll
be in some ways the luckiest team ever. You might say,
Russell Wilson's what's causing that. In his career prior to
(14:08):
this year, Russell Wilson was three games below five hundred
and one score games. So did he just all of
a sudden get great at it. I'm not saying he
hasn't taken a step this year. It's not supposed to
be eleven and two in these games, and if he
just lost even a couple more of them, they might
not have even made the playoffs. So to me, green
Bay's a little overrated. I think Seattle's way overrated. The
(14:31):
line is saying these are even teams because green Bay's
home field so good. I am starting to love green Bay.
By the way, one more. I like Clemson plus six
Monday Night. I'll give you my theory on it. You
live in Vegas and you've gone to Tyson fives. So
if you've for the boxers who had never faced Mike Tyson,
there was this The rule on Tyson was get to
(14:55):
the fourth round, he tires, but the barrage and the
intensity of his power was so much early it kept
even good fighters on their heels. So Clemson played a
lousy schedule all year. The ACC's easily the worst conference,
Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech all down, so they really
hadn't faced a roster, a well coached roster of NFL
(15:18):
athletes until Ohio State, and like Tyson, they were back
on their heels for a little more than a quarter,
but by the middle second quarter on Clemson averaged seven
point four yards a play Ohio State, all those draft
picks Chase Young could not stop them. No turnovers, late interceptions,
(15:43):
few penalties. They were playing comfortable football. Well, now they
play LSU having played Ohio State, so they will be
a much better team early with I think a better
staff and a better quarterback. I love Clemson plus six here.
What would the wise guys or you say, Well, here's
the first thing I'd say, Is it true? This is
(16:04):
a rumor that you have a big Michael Spins ticket
that you know obviously they in cash framed in your office.
I do not. No, you're those Tyson fights man, all right, agreement,
and I think you made it a little complicated. I
think all you gotta do in this game is look
at what the projected line was. And these weren't projected like, oh,
(16:26):
let's put it in the newspaper. These were battable lines.
So there were four possible finals, right, So they had
all four matchups on the board before last games, right,
the semifinals. The line in the Clemson LSU was pick them. Now.
What happened in the interim. I agree, I think you
maybe even you might downgrade Clemson a little bit off
(16:47):
that win. I mean, it was kind of like but
still they were at worst it was and they were
right in it with a High State and they won.
So congrats, and let's be candid. LSU looked as good
as any team can look, So upgrade then maybe two
points and add powers who does our power ratings? And
he's done this show numerous times. He's had a situation
where he says, all right, let's give LSU two points.
(17:08):
That's about as much as you can upgrade a team
this late in the year. And let's say he actually
downgraded Clemson one off the High State win, which seems counterintuitive,
but Vegas is saying, what do we know about this team? Now?
We didn't know before, and he didn't. He wasn't all
that impressed with Clemson. Still, this line should be less
than three. So six is just the public has gotten
so excited the Heisman winner. They're blown everybody out. I
(17:32):
think this line keeps going up. And one of the
great important things you need to do is a batter
is decide when to bat. So if you're listening on Saturday, morning.
My advice, we never know for sure you might be
able to get a six and a half or even
a seven. Now there's a chance you might lose points,
so you've got to make a calculated risk. But this
is pure value. Clemson, r J Bell Pregame dot Com.
(17:56):
Have a great weekend. We'll talk in a couple of
we'll talk soon, we'll talk before the super Bowl, we'll
do a show, and next week we'll do a show.
So we have a few more his Twitter handle. As always,
be careful at social media, kids. It's a very, very
toxic out there at RJ in Vegas and his show
is Straight out of Vegas six to seven Eastern on
(18:17):
Fox Sports Radio. It's through the Roof this year, the podcast,
the ratings through the Roof. Have a good weekend, RJ.
Thank you,
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Colin Cowherd
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