September 14, 2019 • 23 mins
After going 3-2 in Week 1 Colin talks about his Blazing 5 picks for week 2 with Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio Host RJ Bell to find out what picks the wise guys in Vegas agree or disagree with. Also, Colin reveals a bonus pick not in his Blazing 5.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
All right, everybody, welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. It's
a tradition around these parts. Are jbelprigame dot com doing
an hour a day show Monday through Friday, gambling show.
You know about it at the Fox Sports Radio Network.
So here we go. First of all, my Blazing five.
(00:22):
Let's blaze it up, Fire it up. It's Collins Blazing five.
Seahawks at Steelers. I'm gonna take the Steelers minus three
and a half. I have a rule. When you're a
competent team and you are humiliated on national TV Sunday
night Monday night, you will rebound very quickly. Pittsburgh was humiliated.
(00:46):
They'll play great. They're at home where they're a better team.
It's also Brady, He's eating Pittsburgh alive. Seattle gave up
four hundred eighteen yards to Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton and
one of the worst offensive lines in foot well eight
Seattle alive, and they didn't have a j green in.
Seattle's offense only had two hundred and thirty yards against
the defense that was last in the league. Seattle is young,
(01:10):
they are a work in progress. I'm gonna take the
Steelers here. Swallow the points. Twenty eight twenty one Bills
at Giants. I gotta tell you, Buffalo's coaching staff is fantastic.
It's very rare in the NFL when you have a
great coaching staff and a losing record, they are rebuilding. Okay,
(01:33):
I think New York Pat Shermer is a great coordinator.
I don't think he's a good head coach. I mean,
what was New York's defense last week? That was embarrassing?
The Bill's defense held the Jets to three point four
yards of play. That's with Lavian Bell. That's with an
improved offensive line. That's on the road. That was number
one in the NFL. Okay, that beat the Bears, the Packers,
(01:55):
and the Ravens defenses. John Brown one hundred twenty three
ris eaving yards in Week one. I gotta tell you,
are we sure that Eli? I know he's not better
than Josh Allen athletically. Are we sure Eli's better than
Josh Allen? Right now? By the way, Yes, it's a
road game for Buffalo, but they're going back to the
same stadium. You know, it's Buffalo to New York, same stadium.
(02:18):
I'm gonna swallow the two points here, and I'm gonna
take Buffalo to win twenty eight to twenty three. Fears
and Broncos. Now I'm taking points. I'm gonna take Denver
plus two and a half. Vic Fangio, Denver head coach
last couple of years, was Chicago's defensive coordinator. He faced
(02:38):
Mitch Trubisky every day at practice. He knows what he
can do and he knows what he can't do. By
the way, Denver's got two great pass rushers, no sacks
against Oakland, They'll be spicy. The Broncos haven't started oh
and two since nineteen ninety nine, longest streak in the league.
They are fifty one, eight and two in September in
home games since nineteen seventy they've won seventeen of eighteen
(03:01):
home openers. And by the way, Mitch Trubisky, we know
he struggles on the road. It is worse eight touchdowns,
nine picks in his lap. Broncos. By the way, I
have won twenty straight Week two home games. Trubisky's you
struggle with him at home, worse on the road in
his career. I'm gonna take the points. Broncos with the
(03:22):
upset twenty four twenty Saints at Rams this number's come
down now. I really like it. It's it's Rams minus
two and a half. At some places it's Rams minus two.
Like it. I love it. First of all, New Orleans.
Their reputation is amazing. But do you know they're o
and six against the spread in their last six games.
(03:45):
Betters are betting them like they're the Saints from Week
three last year. Their last six seven games. They are
not the same football team, and Deshaun Watson eight them alive.
By the way, last year the Saints lost the Rams
at home without Cooper Cup and really without Todd Gurley.
They're both back, and Jared Goff is a different quarterback
(04:08):
at home. He is more comfortable last year three hundred
forty two yards a game at home, seven and one,
twenty two touchdowns in two three picks. I like this
number here. I'm betting the number here. I think it
could be a very competitive game. But minus two minus
two and a half Rams win thirty one twenty six
Eagles at Fell Kids. I'm gonna take more points here. Now.
(04:31):
I like Philadelphia a lot, but they're not going sixty
nine and I think they're vulnerable here. I'm going to
take Atlanta at home plus two. First of all, Matt
Ryan last year at home, and I think they've upgraded.
Offensive coordinator was special. Matt's a better home quarterback than
a road quarterback in most are Jared goff Is, There's
no problem with that. Also, Malik Jackson, a very good
(04:52):
defensive lineman for the Eagles, out for the year. Here's
what's interesting. I love Carson Wentz. He has struggled away
from Philly. He's eight and twelve on the road, his
completion percentage plummets, and his passer ratings in the mid eighties. Again,
Philadelphia is the better team, but Atlanta was humiliated Week
(05:16):
one home opener in the Dome. Malik Jackson out. I'm
gonna take the upset here. Falcons win twenty seven twenty four.
All of our odds provided by Fox pet So we
had a winning week last week. We were three and two.
Let's go this week. Let's start with this one. And
(05:37):
I've gone back and forth on this, but I get
Denver plus one. Now, it's bizarre, but they have a
weeks one and two. Maybe it's because teams are not
in shape, but weeks one and two, Denver is virtually
unbeatable at home. Since the merger. I do worry about
(05:59):
a show week, but I'm gonna go Denver plus one.
I don't trust Trabisky. What do the wise guys think? Yeah,
big agreement here, Denver extra sharp play and why sharp? Well,
Denver lost so in front of the world on Monday night.
Oh my gosh, the Raiders beat them, and now everyone's
(06:19):
going to be down on them Bears. Yeah, they got
beat but they're the Bears. They had a good year.
But you mentioned it. Let's get specific on the numbers.
Last thirty seasons, first two weeks of the year at
home Denver straight up thirty three and three. It's incredible,
and many of those years they were unsettled at quarterback.
(06:40):
That's incredible, no doubt. And if you just look it
against the spread, which is going to count for all factors,
twenty two eleven three pushes, so sixty six percent in
those games. Now, you're right, a little concern with the
time to prepare. It's early in the year. And by
the way, I think the rationale of that amazing streak
(07:01):
early in the season for Denver is about conditioning. When
you have the game, conditioning not yet quite there, and
then you add in Denver's used to the altitude. I
think the opponent really suffers. I mean, thirty three and
three is hard to explain. Yeah, here's the big thing
is Fangio knows Trubis. He does. He really does. Last two.
(07:22):
He's seen all his words. And that's the thing. The
more limitations a quarterback has, the more that insider knowledge
can hurt the quarterback. I think it's a big, big factor.
Big agreement on Denver. Okay, I'm gonna take the Falcons
plus one and a half at home. Now here's the thing.
I like Philadelphia a lot, but I will say this,
(07:45):
Matt Ryan as a home quarterback. These dome quarterbacks, you
just see it RJ through the history at time, Drew
Brees at home, Matt Ryan at home. So even though
I think Philadelphia could be a super Bowl one week
super Bowl team, I think Atlanta was embarrassed in Week
one home opener. Maddie Ryan at home is fantastic, and
(08:10):
the Eagles had a big loss defensively. I'm gonna take
Atlanta plus one and a half. One of the wise
guys think slight agreement, and it's kind of the I'm
taking the lesser of the two evils. Here, Okay, now,
Matt Ryan, I think I was optimistic coming into the season. One.
I thought, I think Cutter at OC is a big upgrade.
(08:32):
And I also really liked Ryan played a lot in
the preseason, more than of any veteran really as a starter.
And I'm thinking, okay, getting the reps in with Cutter,
and then against Minnesota, so many turnovers. And it's one
thing to have turnovers across the game. Those are almost
impossible to overcome. But if you have a bunch early,
(08:55):
it gets you out of your game and that you're
down twenty eight nothing or whatever it is, right, big deficit.
Now you can't really execute your game plan. So in
a way, I think you got to excuse Atlanta because
turnovers have a lot of luck to them. But on
the other hand, I look at this and I think
Philly has Atlanta's number last three times they've played. And
(09:16):
again you might say three's not enough, maybe, but when
you have the same quarterback, same coach on each side,
it tells you something. Three no straight up, three no
against the spread for the Eagles, and Atlanta's only scored
twelve points per game, and those matchups you mentioned, Malie
Jackson biggest offseason acquisition out for the season, so I
(09:37):
think that hurts them on the field and also hurts them,
you know, psychologically they lost such a big player. So
all that said, I agree with you, but there's just
something about this Atlanta team I'm pessimistic about. But we
are getting points at home. So agreement Falcons, Okay. Now,
I tend to take underdogs. You know that. I like
(09:59):
a dogs. Now I'm gonna go three favorites. This is
out of my comfort zone. Let's start with this. Bill's
minus two and a half at the Giants. I said
this multiple times in the off season, and I believe this.
I think the Bills are the rare combination of great
coaching staff that had a bad record. I think Buffalo
(10:19):
I think players get better. I think their defense is outstanding.
I think their secondary is top notch, and I'm not
sure Pat Shermer is anything more than a really good coordinator.
I feel like Buffalo's defense will control the Giants offense,
and I just if it was three, i'd probably pass.
(10:41):
It's minus two and a half Buffalo, I'm gonna go
with it. One of the wise guys think disagreement here,
and let's be candid you are going to be with
the majority of the batters. I'm always fearful of that. Right,
the twenty dollar batters are not winning long term. You
know they're on the bills. Why because they saw the
Giants and they said, oh my gosh, they are so bad.
(11:04):
And it's like, okay, no NFL team is as bad
as the Giant team. And if all you do is
fade in week two against those bad performances where you're
saying that that you are fading the perception that it
was so bad by playing the team that was so bad.
And let's think about this line for a minute, because
(11:24):
this is all about numbers. And you know, there's the
old saying in Vegas you don't bet teams, you bet numbers.
Right now, home to home. If we flip this, if
this game we're in Buffalo, it would be about a
six point flip. Now, for the listeners, that's important to
always remember when you have a short road favor, they
always look juicy. Why because they're the better team. You're thinking, oh,
(11:48):
they just got to win the game. You know, that's
the kind of square way to think about it. Well,
if this game we're in Buffalo, the line would be
eight and a half, right for ninus two and a
half at six points eight and a half. Now, what
is the line Giants at Dallas last week? You remember
seven or seven and a half? Yes, so you're telling
me now Buffalo is a better team than Dallas because effectively,
(12:12):
now you're right, and that's the thing. I get it.
You have to downgrade the Giants a little bit, you
upgrade Dallas a little bit or maybe more. But even
with those adjustments, the idea that the Bills and the
Cowboys being in the same universe doesn't make sense. And really, effectively,
that's what this line is saying. Disagreement value Giants. So
it's not easy to bet the Giants. Okay, So I
(12:34):
got agreement Falcons and Broncos, disagreement Bills. Okay, I'm gonna
go for another favorite. I'm gonna take the Steelers four.
First of all, I think Pittsburgh is the better team,
and I think after being humiliated. I've had a rule
forever as a sports better when a team that I
think has elite components is humiliated on national TV, they
(13:00):
are extra spicy the following week. These are professionals. Um,
Seattle is not a great team. They they found out
a way to win. They're traveling East coast. They have
not under Pete Carroll been great out east. I'm gonna
take Pittsburgh to cover it. Minus four here, this is
(13:20):
a lot of points. What do the wise guys think?
Now this I only do about three or four times
a year. Vegas agrees. I disagree. So yeah, no, no,
I think Trump's Vegas for sure. But what I'm saying
is as a Steeler fan, I have, you know, insider,
you don't think they're any good. I think here's what
(13:41):
I think. I think that Big Ben, more than any
of these aging quarterbacks is going to hit the wall first.
He's taken so many hits. Yeah, he's a lumbering quarterback.
By the way, Cam Newton he looked a little bit
like that on Thursday. I mean, what's Cam thirty. I
mean what I'm saying is, to some degree, Big Ben
(14:01):
to me is the toughest quarterback I've seen since Bradshaw.
And I don't mean just as a Steeler quarterback. I
mean he's taking hits and I thought he might be
out for the year. He's back in ten minutes. I
mean I really respect that. But they take a toll. Also,
the old line, which has become a strength of the
Steelers getting older. Think about Pouncing now hitting his tenth year,
(14:23):
and they lost their old line coach Munchak, in my opinion,
the best O line coach in football. So I also
got to ask you the question, Juju is the number
two receiver? Okay, but as the number one without a
real number two, that's a different breeder receiver. They can
(14:43):
be a number one. I don't know yet if he
can be that, I'm skeptical. And also certainly the playmakers
are atrocious relative. I mean, how do you lose Levon Bell?
How do you lose Brown? And whatever shenanigans or legal
shoes Brown has He has been one of the best
receivers the last ten years in the NFL. There's just
(15:06):
no question about it. How do you lose those guys?
And it doesn't seem like anyone really adjusted for it.
You think about the Patriots team. This is a Patriots
team some think is the best team in ten years
that they've had, right, we can debate that, but a
really good team. They were only laying five and a
half against the Steelers. Remember two years ago Patriots hosted
(15:27):
Pittsburgh in the FC Championship game. The line was like
six and a half in that game. So I'm kind
of confused how Pittsburgh's gotten closer to the Patriots. There
just seems to be a disregard for everything Pittsburgh's lass.
I think it's a mistake. One last thing, Tomlin and
the Steelers. You remember that whiskey commercial where the fat
guy was walking on the beach and it had the
bikini briefs on. Yes, yeah, that's a guy that has
(15:50):
like an extra defense against shame. The Steelers are like that,
where if they lose a game that any other team
is going to be ashamed of, they just shrug. And
it takes losing two or three of those. It seems
to get Pittsburgh motivated. So to me, I think the
wise guys, oh, I know, the wise guys are on
the Steelers. I don't like it. Okay, if finally we're
(16:11):
two and two, I'm gonna take the Rams minus three.
Here's why Saints played late Monday at football Now they
travel all the way west. Jared Goff last two years
has been rusty in Week one because McVeigh won't play
him in the preseason, but in the second part of
that game. And I think this week going forward, I
(16:33):
think Goff and the offense start clicking. Girlie clearly, at
least at this point in the season, you can depend
on him to some level. And I the Saints to me,
I thought they were a little bit of fools gold
last year. At the end of the year, I thought
the Rams were the forget the call if the Rams
were the better team when they beat him. I think
the Rams are the better team now Cooper Cup, Girlie's back,
(16:56):
and they beat him essentially last year in New Orleans.
Without those two guys, I'm gonna take the Rams another
favorite minus three. What do the wise guys think? So,
I know you lock your picks in early, So the
line is down to two as we speak. So at
two I love the Rams, love them, and wise guys,
I think at two would two at three? You know,
(17:19):
obviously it's a tighter call. Now, what I'll say is,
I think you touched on a few really key points.
One is that Goff not playing in the preseason really
hurt at the beginning of last game. Now it hurt
him the year before when they played the Raiders on
Monday Night. You recall they only had ten points to
(17:39):
Rams at halftime. So what I had is picks on
that Falk Show six Eastern every weekday was under in
a number of those quarterback games in the first half
last week. That didn't play much or at all in
the preseason. But in a way it makes the Rams
look worse than they are because they had that disadvantage
(18:02):
last week. Now you talked about Breeze, I am actually
a little more optimistic about him because I think what
we saw at the end of last year was armed fatigue.
Now we didn't know was it arm fatigue, did he
finally get old or an injury. It might have been
an injury. But what we saw on Monday night, he
looked pretty good. The team didn't look great, but he
looked pretty good. Mentioning the Saints last six seasons first
(18:26):
two weeks of the season two and nine straight up,
one and ten against the spread, that's interesting. You know,
Belichick can be sloppy in September. Andy Reid is great
in September. There are trends, coaching trends. Oh my gosh,
maybe Sean Payton does not unveil the entire playbook until
mid October, or maybe who knows, right, But when you
(18:48):
get these kind of numbers, because to me, as much
as Belichick sloppy in September, he's excellent in Week one.
Usually a great coach you give him extra time, right,
I think urban Meyer Sabin in college. Extra time is
death if you have a great coach to the other team.
But for whatever reason, Breeze and Peyton have not done it.
(19:10):
Now you might say, oh, the Saints are pretty good
on the road seven and one last year. Well in
the prior six years, zero winning seasons on the road
for the Saints for a team that's been mighty good
for many of those years. So to me, it's all
about the line being too Rams at home and one
(19:30):
last start. Everyone's saying, oh, revenge game for the Saints.
But don't you think the Rams went to prove that
last year wasn't a fluke. Yeah, So to me, I
think Max Mo, I don't think there's any real motivation
edge agreement on the Rams. R J BELPREGM dot com. Finally,
on the Saturday podcast, we have a bonus pick this week.
I just want you to teach me something and teach
(19:51):
the audience something. Okay, So I liked the Browns minus
two and a half against the Jets, Darnald has mono,
he's out. The line jumps to six and a half. So,
first of all, tell me who you would take and
what do you make of that line movement? Teach me
in my audience something. What would you wise guys think?
Because I stay away from this game now, there's too
(20:12):
many players. I don't know if they're gonna play. Darnold's out,
so I just I'm out. I'm out. Teach me something.
All right, Well, this is very important to understand if
you're gonna beat What is the value of quarterbacks now?
The starting point is that it's relative, Whereas the old
time joke is how much was Joe Montana worth one
of the great quarterbacks of all time? Oh? About a
(20:33):
half point when Steve Young was his backup, right, So
it's all relative now. The outlier, the most extreme value
we've ever seen for any player was Aaron Rodgers a
couple of years ago in his prime. I personally think
he's out of his prime at this point, but a
couple of years ago he was worth about ten points.
(20:54):
It was a combination of how important passing had become
in the NFL, with how good he was, how bad
his backup was. So this adjustment and you can just
for an estimate, do the math. So we would say, okay,
Browns were two and a half point favorites. Now there's
six and a half. Math says four. Now the caveat
is key. Numbers matter more in the NFL three and seven.
(21:17):
For example, the fact this line moved through three. You
can make the cases more than four points of adjustment.
I find that to be crazy. Let's just look at
the numbers quickly. Sam Darnold season. Listen, don't take this personally.
Calling Sam Darnold season fifty nine percent completions in his
career his passer rating seventy eight percent or seventy eight. Okay,
(21:40):
fifteen seventy eight Trevor Simeon fifty nine percent completions, his
passer rating eighty. So I get it. The case can
be made all the trend line on Darnold, except how
do he look last week? He could. He did a
couple of hero plays where he looked really good. He can,
he can have an it factor, but overall Fellow stymied
(22:00):
in late I mean, listen, when you have three turnovers advantage,
they were plus three the Jets. You win the game
in the NFL ninety percent of the time, so it
is an humongous win for the Bills that they won
that game. So to me, I think it's an auto play,
a wise guy play in my opinion on the Browns. Oh,
(22:21):
I'm sorry on the Jets because I think the adjustment
for Darneld being out is too much. Our guy Fezek,
who is an elite NFL guy, thinks it's only two.
The last lesson I'll give you a callin is remember,
by definition, if you bet against the line, you are
saying the line is wrong. So wise guys will sometimes
(22:41):
disagree with the Vegas market. So oftentimes most of the
time the Vegas market is right. But for you to
win as a sports better, you've got to know when
the Vegas market's wrong. I think the Vegas market overadjusted
for Darnold Dapson's r J Bell Pregame dot Com at
r J and Vegas. Good talking to you, a buddy.
Thank you
All right, everybody, welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. It's
a tradition around these parts. Are jbelprigame dot com doing
an hour a day show Monday through Friday, gambling show.
You know about it at the Fox Sports Radio Network.
So here we go. First of all, my Blazing five.
(00:22):
Let's blaze it up, Fire it up. It's Collins Blazing five.
Seahawks at Steelers. I'm gonna take the Steelers minus three
and a half. I have a rule. When you're a
competent team and you are humiliated on national TV Sunday
night Monday night, you will rebound very quickly. Pittsburgh was humiliated.
(00:46):
They'll play great. They're at home where they're a better team.
It's also Brady, He's eating Pittsburgh alive. Seattle gave up
four hundred eighteen yards to Andy Dalton. Andy Dalton and
one of the worst offensive lines in foot well eight
Seattle alive, and they didn't have a j green in.
Seattle's offense only had two hundred and thirty yards against
the defense that was last in the league. Seattle is young,
(01:10):
they are a work in progress. I'm gonna take the
Steelers here. Swallow the points. Twenty eight twenty one Bills
at Giants. I gotta tell you, Buffalo's coaching staff is fantastic.
It's very rare in the NFL when you have a
great coaching staff and a losing record, they are rebuilding. Okay,
(01:33):
I think New York Pat Shermer is a great coordinator.
I don't think he's a good head coach. I mean,
what was New York's defense last week? That was embarrassing?
The Bill's defense held the Jets to three point four
yards of play. That's with Lavian Bell. That's with an
improved offensive line. That's on the road. That was number
one in the NFL. Okay, that beat the Bears, the Packers,
(01:55):
and the Ravens defenses. John Brown one hundred twenty three
ris eaving yards in Week one. I gotta tell you,
are we sure that Eli? I know he's not better
than Josh Allen athletically. Are we sure Eli's better than
Josh Allen? Right now? By the way, Yes, it's a
road game for Buffalo, but they're going back to the
same stadium. You know, it's Buffalo to New York, same stadium.
(02:18):
I'm gonna swallow the two points here, and I'm gonna
take Buffalo to win twenty eight to twenty three. Fears
and Broncos. Now I'm taking points. I'm gonna take Denver
plus two and a half. Vic Fangio, Denver head coach
last couple of years, was Chicago's defensive coordinator. He faced
(02:38):
Mitch Trubisky every day at practice. He knows what he
can do and he knows what he can't do. By
the way, Denver's got two great pass rushers, no sacks
against Oakland, They'll be spicy. The Broncos haven't started oh
and two since nineteen ninety nine, longest streak in the league.
They are fifty one, eight and two in September in
home games since nineteen seventy they've won seventeen of eighteen
(03:01):
home openers. And by the way, Mitch Trubisky, we know
he struggles on the road. It is worse eight touchdowns,
nine picks in his lap. Broncos. By the way, I
have won twenty straight Week two home games. Trubisky's you
struggle with him at home, worse on the road in
his career. I'm gonna take the points. Broncos with the
(03:22):
upset twenty four twenty Saints at Rams this number's come
down now. I really like it. It's it's Rams minus
two and a half. At some places it's Rams minus two.
Like it. I love it. First of all, New Orleans.
Their reputation is amazing. But do you know they're o
and six against the spread in their last six games.
(03:45):
Betters are betting them like they're the Saints from Week
three last year. Their last six seven games. They are
not the same football team, and Deshaun Watson eight them alive.
By the way, last year the Saints lost the Rams
at home without Cooper Cup and really without Todd Gurley.
They're both back, and Jared Goff is a different quarterback
(04:08):
at home. He is more comfortable last year three hundred
forty two yards a game at home, seven and one,
twenty two touchdowns in two three picks. I like this
number here. I'm betting the number here. I think it
could be a very competitive game. But minus two minus
two and a half Rams win thirty one twenty six
Eagles at Fell Kids. I'm gonna take more points here. Now.
(04:31):
I like Philadelphia a lot, but they're not going sixty
nine and I think they're vulnerable here. I'm going to
take Atlanta at home plus two. First of all, Matt
Ryan last year at home, and I think they've upgraded.
Offensive coordinator was special. Matt's a better home quarterback than
a road quarterback in most are Jared goff Is, There's
no problem with that. Also, Malik Jackson, a very good
(04:52):
defensive lineman for the Eagles, out for the year. Here's
what's interesting. I love Carson Wentz. He has struggled away
from Philly. He's eight and twelve on the road, his
completion percentage plummets, and his passer ratings in the mid eighties. Again,
Philadelphia is the better team, but Atlanta was humiliated Week
(05:16):
one home opener in the Dome. Malik Jackson out. I'm
gonna take the upset here. Falcons win twenty seven twenty four.
All of our odds provided by Fox pet So we
had a winning week last week. We were three and two.
Let's go this week. Let's start with this one. And
(05:37):
I've gone back and forth on this, but I get
Denver plus one. Now, it's bizarre, but they have a
weeks one and two. Maybe it's because teams are not
in shape, but weeks one and two, Denver is virtually
unbeatable at home. Since the merger. I do worry about
(05:59):
a show week, but I'm gonna go Denver plus one.
I don't trust Trabisky. What do the wise guys think? Yeah,
big agreement here, Denver extra sharp play and why sharp? Well,
Denver lost so in front of the world on Monday night.
Oh my gosh, the Raiders beat them, and now everyone's
(06:19):
going to be down on them Bears. Yeah, they got
beat but they're the Bears. They had a good year.
But you mentioned it. Let's get specific on the numbers.
Last thirty seasons, first two weeks of the year at
home Denver straight up thirty three and three. It's incredible,
and many of those years they were unsettled at quarterback.
(06:40):
That's incredible, no doubt. And if you just look it
against the spread, which is going to count for all factors,
twenty two eleven three pushes, so sixty six percent in
those games. Now, you're right, a little concern with the
time to prepare. It's early in the year. And by
the way, I think the rationale of that amazing streak
(07:01):
early in the season for Denver is about conditioning. When
you have the game, conditioning not yet quite there, and
then you add in Denver's used to the altitude. I
think the opponent really suffers. I mean, thirty three and
three is hard to explain. Yeah, here's the big thing
is Fangio knows Trubis. He does. He really does. Last two.
(07:22):
He's seen all his words. And that's the thing. The
more limitations a quarterback has, the more that insider knowledge
can hurt the quarterback. I think it's a big, big factor.
Big agreement on Denver. Okay, I'm gonna take the Falcons
plus one and a half at home. Now here's the thing.
I like Philadelphia a lot, but I will say this,
(07:45):
Matt Ryan as a home quarterback. These dome quarterbacks, you
just see it RJ through the history at time, Drew
Brees at home, Matt Ryan at home. So even though
I think Philadelphia could be a super Bowl one week
super Bowl team, I think Atlanta was embarrassed in Week
one home opener. Maddie Ryan at home is fantastic, and
(08:10):
the Eagles had a big loss defensively. I'm gonna take
Atlanta plus one and a half. One of the wise
guys think slight agreement, and it's kind of the I'm
taking the lesser of the two evils. Here, Okay, now,
Matt Ryan, I think I was optimistic coming into the season. One.
I thought, I think Cutter at OC is a big upgrade.
(08:32):
And I also really liked Ryan played a lot in
the preseason, more than of any veteran really as a starter.
And I'm thinking, okay, getting the reps in with Cutter,
and then against Minnesota, so many turnovers. And it's one
thing to have turnovers across the game. Those are almost
impossible to overcome. But if you have a bunch early,
(08:55):
it gets you out of your game and that you're
down twenty eight nothing or whatever it is, right, big deficit.
Now you can't really execute your game plan. So in
a way, I think you got to excuse Atlanta because
turnovers have a lot of luck to them. But on
the other hand, I look at this and I think
Philly has Atlanta's number last three times they've played. And
(09:16):
again you might say three's not enough, maybe, but when
you have the same quarterback, same coach on each side,
it tells you something. Three no straight up, three no
against the spread for the Eagles, and Atlanta's only scored
twelve points per game, and those matchups you mentioned, Malie
Jackson biggest offseason acquisition out for the season, so I
(09:37):
think that hurts them on the field and also hurts them,
you know, psychologically they lost such a big player. So
all that said, I agree with you, but there's just
something about this Atlanta team I'm pessimistic about. But we
are getting points at home. So agreement Falcons, Okay. Now,
I tend to take underdogs. You know that. I like
(09:59):
a dogs. Now I'm gonna go three favorites. This is
out of my comfort zone. Let's start with this. Bill's
minus two and a half at the Giants. I said
this multiple times in the off season, and I believe this.
I think the Bills are the rare combination of great
coaching staff that had a bad record. I think Buffalo
(10:19):
I think players get better. I think their defense is outstanding.
I think their secondary is top notch, and I'm not
sure Pat Shermer is anything more than a really good coordinator.
I feel like Buffalo's defense will control the Giants offense,
and I just if it was three, i'd probably pass.
(10:41):
It's minus two and a half Buffalo, I'm gonna go
with it. One of the wise guys think disagreement here,
and let's be candid you are going to be with
the majority of the batters. I'm always fearful of that. Right,
the twenty dollar batters are not winning long term. You
know they're on the bills. Why because they saw the
Giants and they said, oh my gosh, they are so bad.
(11:04):
And it's like, okay, no NFL team is as bad
as the Giant team. And if all you do is
fade in week two against those bad performances where you're
saying that that you are fading the perception that it
was so bad by playing the team that was so bad.
And let's think about this line for a minute, because
(11:24):
this is all about numbers. And you know, there's the
old saying in Vegas you don't bet teams, you bet numbers.
Right now, home to home. If we flip this, if
this game we're in Buffalo, it would be about a
six point flip. Now, for the listeners, that's important to
always remember when you have a short road favor, they
always look juicy. Why because they're the better team. You're thinking, oh,
(11:48):
they just got to win the game. You know, that's
the kind of square way to think about it. Well,
if this game we're in Buffalo, the line would be
eight and a half, right for ninus two and a
half at six points eight and a half. Now, what
is the line Giants at Dallas last week? You remember
seven or seven and a half? Yes, so you're telling
me now Buffalo is a better team than Dallas because effectively,
(12:12):
now you're right, and that's the thing. I get it.
You have to downgrade the Giants a little bit, you
upgrade Dallas a little bit or maybe more. But even
with those adjustments, the idea that the Bills and the
Cowboys being in the same universe doesn't make sense. And really, effectively,
that's what this line is saying. Disagreement value Giants. So
it's not easy to bet the Giants. Okay, So I
(12:34):
got agreement Falcons and Broncos, disagreement Bills. Okay, I'm gonna
go for another favorite. I'm gonna take the Steelers four.
First of all, I think Pittsburgh is the better team,
and I think after being humiliated. I've had a rule
forever as a sports better when a team that I
think has elite components is humiliated on national TV, they
(13:00):
are extra spicy the following week. These are professionals. Um,
Seattle is not a great team. They they found out
a way to win. They're traveling East coast. They have
not under Pete Carroll been great out east. I'm gonna
take Pittsburgh to cover it. Minus four here, this is
(13:20):
a lot of points. What do the wise guys think?
Now this I only do about three or four times
a year. Vegas agrees. I disagree. So yeah, no, no,
I think Trump's Vegas for sure. But what I'm saying
is as a Steeler fan, I have, you know, insider,
you don't think they're any good. I think here's what
(13:41):
I think. I think that Big Ben, more than any
of these aging quarterbacks is going to hit the wall first.
He's taken so many hits. Yeah, he's a lumbering quarterback.
By the way, Cam Newton he looked a little bit
like that on Thursday. I mean, what's Cam thirty. I
mean what I'm saying is, to some degree, Big Ben
(14:01):
to me is the toughest quarterback I've seen since Bradshaw.
And I don't mean just as a Steeler quarterback. I
mean he's taking hits and I thought he might be
out for the year. He's back in ten minutes. I
mean I really respect that. But they take a toll. Also,
the old line, which has become a strength of the
Steelers getting older. Think about Pouncing now hitting his tenth year,
(14:23):
and they lost their old line coach Munchak, in my opinion,
the best O line coach in football. So I also
got to ask you the question, Juju is the number
two receiver? Okay, but as the number one without a
real number two, that's a different breeder receiver. They can
(14:43):
be a number one. I don't know yet if he
can be that, I'm skeptical. And also certainly the playmakers
are atrocious relative. I mean, how do you lose Levon Bell?
How do you lose Brown? And whatever shenanigans or legal
shoes Brown has He has been one of the best
receivers the last ten years in the NFL. There's just
(15:06):
no question about it. How do you lose those guys?
And it doesn't seem like anyone really adjusted for it.
You think about the Patriots team. This is a Patriots
team some think is the best team in ten years
that they've had, right, we can debate that, but a
really good team. They were only laying five and a
half against the Steelers. Remember two years ago Patriots hosted
(15:27):
Pittsburgh in the FC Championship game. The line was like
six and a half in that game. So I'm kind
of confused how Pittsburgh's gotten closer to the Patriots. There
just seems to be a disregard for everything Pittsburgh's lass.
I think it's a mistake. One last thing, Tomlin and
the Steelers. You remember that whiskey commercial where the fat
guy was walking on the beach and it had the
bikini briefs on. Yes, yeah, that's a guy that has
(15:50):
like an extra defense against shame. The Steelers are like that,
where if they lose a game that any other team
is going to be ashamed of, they just shrug. And
it takes losing two or three of those. It seems
to get Pittsburgh motivated. So to me, I think the
wise guys, oh, I know, the wise guys are on
the Steelers. I don't like it. Okay, if finally we're
(16:11):
two and two, I'm gonna take the Rams minus three.
Here's why Saints played late Monday at football Now they
travel all the way west. Jared Goff last two years
has been rusty in Week one because McVeigh won't play
him in the preseason, but in the second part of
that game. And I think this week going forward, I
(16:33):
think Goff and the offense start clicking. Girlie clearly, at
least at this point in the season, you can depend
on him to some level. And I the Saints to me,
I thought they were a little bit of fools gold
last year. At the end of the year, I thought
the Rams were the forget the call if the Rams
were the better team when they beat him. I think
the Rams are the better team now Cooper Cup, Girlie's back,
(16:56):
and they beat him essentially last year in New Orleans.
Without those two guys, I'm gonna take the Rams another
favorite minus three. What do the wise guys think? So,
I know you lock your picks in early, So the
line is down to two as we speak. So at
two I love the Rams, love them, and wise guys,
I think at two would two at three? You know,
(17:19):
obviously it's a tighter call. Now, what I'll say is,
I think you touched on a few really key points.
One is that Goff not playing in the preseason really
hurt at the beginning of last game. Now it hurt
him the year before when they played the Raiders on
Monday Night. You recall they only had ten points to
(17:39):
Rams at halftime. So what I had is picks on
that Falk Show six Eastern every weekday was under in
a number of those quarterback games in the first half
last week. That didn't play much or at all in
the preseason. But in a way it makes the Rams
look worse than they are because they had that disadvantage
(18:02):
last week. Now you talked about Breeze, I am actually
a little more optimistic about him because I think what
we saw at the end of last year was armed fatigue.
Now we didn't know was it arm fatigue, did he
finally get old or an injury. It might have been
an injury. But what we saw on Monday night, he
looked pretty good. The team didn't look great, but he
looked pretty good. Mentioning the Saints last six seasons first
(18:26):
two weeks of the season two and nine straight up,
one and ten against the spread, that's interesting. You know,
Belichick can be sloppy in September. Andy Reid is great
in September. There are trends, coaching trends. Oh my gosh,
maybe Sean Payton does not unveil the entire playbook until
mid October, or maybe who knows, right, But when you
(18:48):
get these kind of numbers, because to me, as much
as Belichick sloppy in September, he's excellent in Week one.
Usually a great coach you give him extra time, right,
I think urban Meyer Sabin in college. Extra time is
death if you have a great coach to the other team.
But for whatever reason, Breeze and Peyton have not done it.
(19:10):
Now you might say, oh, the Saints are pretty good
on the road seven and one last year. Well in
the prior six years, zero winning seasons on the road
for the Saints for a team that's been mighty good
for many of those years. So to me, it's all
about the line being too Rams at home and one
(19:30):
last start. Everyone's saying, oh, revenge game for the Saints.
But don't you think the Rams went to prove that
last year wasn't a fluke. Yeah, So to me, I
think Max Mo, I don't think there's any real motivation
edge agreement on the Rams. R J BELPREGM dot com. Finally,
on the Saturday podcast, we have a bonus pick this week.
I just want you to teach me something and teach
(19:51):
the audience something. Okay, So I liked the Browns minus
two and a half against the Jets, Darnald has mono,
he's out. The line jumps to six and a half. So,
first of all, tell me who you would take and
what do you make of that line movement? Teach me
in my audience something. What would you wise guys think?
Because I stay away from this game now, there's too
(20:12):
many players. I don't know if they're gonna play. Darnold's out,
so I just I'm out. I'm out. Teach me something.
All right, Well, this is very important to understand if
you're gonna beat What is the value of quarterbacks now?
The starting point is that it's relative, Whereas the old
time joke is how much was Joe Montana worth one
of the great quarterbacks of all time? Oh? About a
(20:33):
half point when Steve Young was his backup, right, So
it's all relative now. The outlier, the most extreme value
we've ever seen for any player was Aaron Rodgers a
couple of years ago in his prime. I personally think
he's out of his prime at this point, but a
couple of years ago he was worth about ten points.
(20:54):
It was a combination of how important passing had become
in the NFL, with how good he was, how bad
his backup was. So this adjustment and you can just
for an estimate, do the math. So we would say, okay,
Browns were two and a half point favorites. Now there's
six and a half. Math says four. Now the caveat
is key. Numbers matter more in the NFL three and seven.
(21:17):
For example, the fact this line moved through three. You
can make the cases more than four points of adjustment.
I find that to be crazy. Let's just look at
the numbers quickly. Sam Darnold season. Listen, don't take this personally.
Calling Sam Darnold season fifty nine percent completions in his
career his passer rating seventy eight percent or seventy eight. Okay,
(21:40):
fifteen seventy eight Trevor Simeon fifty nine percent completions, his
passer rating eighty. So I get it. The case can
be made all the trend line on Darnold, except how
do he look last week? He could. He did a
couple of hero plays where he looked really good. He can,
he can have an it factor, but overall Fellow stymied
(22:00):
in late I mean, listen, when you have three turnovers advantage,
they were plus three the Jets. You win the game
in the NFL ninety percent of the time, so it
is an humongous win for the Bills that they won
that game. So to me, I think it's an auto play,
a wise guy play in my opinion on the Browns. Oh,
(22:21):
I'm sorry on the Jets because I think the adjustment
for Darneld being out is too much. Our guy Fezek,
who is an elite NFL guy, thinks it's only two.
The last lesson I'll give you a callin is remember,
by definition, if you bet against the line, you are
saying the line is wrong. So wise guys will sometimes
(22:41):
disagree with the Vegas market. So oftentimes most of the
time the Vegas market is right. But for you to
win as a sports better, you've got to know when
the Vegas market's wrong. I think the Vegas market overadjusted
for Darnold Dapson's r J Bell Pregame dot Com at
r J and Vegas. Good talking to you, a buddy.
Thank you
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